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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What I cannot understand given their age profile is the lack of concern by UKIP voters about pensions and health
Given thatb the age profile of kippers is tilted to the higher end of the range their views on the lack of importance of, say, education is understandable. But what about health and pensions?
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George will get my vote (I was 70% going to vote Tory 30% abstain. now I'm in the fold again.
For older citizens health is interesting. Many will have traveled and seen that the NHS is neither the only system nor the best.
Kippers ain't interested.
Men are 16% and women 11%.
Of the 2010 VI, Cons to UKIP are 16%, LAB to UKIP 9% and from LD 15%.
For Social Grade ABC1 are 11% whilst C2DE are 18%.
Highest supporting region is Midlands/Wales at 18% followed by Rest of South at 16% and North at 14%. London is 7%.
Thanks George
Not quite true, No vote is a given, I might end up being one of many who give Dave most votes but not seats.
It's also a cap on their appeal. People who ARE worried about how long it takes to get seen in A&E often get impatient if you start talking about Europe or the planet.
I suspect it's not, but it's interesting that no one gives them the benefit of the doubt. Surely that says for more about you than about them. Says me, feeling very noble.
Then again, I'm not sure what the new pension reforms mean to those who have already have taken an annuity and those who won't be affected by the proposed changes to SERPS etc.
2) the Govt is organising FREE advice for those approaching retirement and those who have not taken an annuity.
3) You have to be negative, don't you, you cant help yourself
Immigration [+28]
Welfare benefits [+4]
Europe [+21]
Crime [+6]
Tax [+1]
UKIP concerns above average - you and your family:
Immigration [+26]
Tax [+3]
Welfare benefits [+2]
Europe [+15]
Crime [+2]
None [+2]
I think the positive scores are not all that surprising. Immigration and Europe well above average, Crime, Tax and Welfare Benefits marginally above average - all fit into the UKIP stereotype of worrying about the country "going to the dogs" in a general way.
With those five areas above average it is really hard to avoid areas that are important for other voters - such as the NHS and Pensions - from being below average.
I think Mike is right to infer that there is an extent to which these are "imagined" worries, based on reading the media, etc, rather than personal knowledge. It follows that the media coverage will be particularly important, but I don't see papers like the Express abandoning their current worldview.
Here’s your starter for 10: which member of David Cameron’s new “female-friendly” Cabinet came up to me at a party four years ago and called me a word I hope he never uses in Parliament?
I was at a leaving do for a colleague who was moving to America, in the basement of a grotty bar near Westminster. It was the hottest day of the year and people were speed-drinking to keep cool. Perhaps that goes some way to explaining what transpired a couple of hours into the party.
As I stood in a group near the bar, a Tory MP came over to introduce himself. “What are you doing here?” he asked abruptly, in what I can only assume was an attempt at small talk. “I work with the party’s host,” I explained. “What are you doing here?” He wittered on about the select committees he worked on that my colleague had covered. And then he said: “If you work at the Telegraph, do you know that slut who writes that Single Girl About Town column at the back of the magazine? What’s her name? Bryony Gordon?”
The room seemed to fall silent.
“Yes,” I managed to respond. “I know her very well, because that slut is me.”
The new minister for can-you-guess-what blushed crimson and spent the rest of the evening apologising profusely. Let’s hope his new career in the Cabinet comes with training to make him less gaffe-prone, or he’ll be out by the time MPs return from their summer recess.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/womens-life/10981625/Hey-Minister-remember-me-Im-the-one-you-called-a-slut.html
Mr. Abroad, really? Annuities do offer guaranteed income, which is a significant plus.
"FWIW I find Kippers and Greens the least interested in bread and butter issues - they are mostly voting to show a strong general view of how things are going or should go, and that absolutely trumps discussing health and pensions."
You mean that most people you see are somewhat selfish, the me-me-me people. I accept that many will have problems but you're right that most people will vote for a politician who promises them personal jam today.
So shouldn't we celebrate those who care more for the general good than for selfish aims. I'd give the greens that compliment even though I think they shouldn't be out on their own.
My absolute favourite constituent is the one who ticked me off for a leaflet saying Labour would make her better off - "I'm not interested in being better off, I want you to be doing more about world poverty." I understand people whose personal difficulties are so pressing that they trump wider issues, but it's nice when that doesn't happen.
I do realise that fishing policies may affect Kippery!
An unusually cynical view from you.
Look at Ukip supporters as caring parents who see the children squabbling over instant gratification. Poking their fingers into electrical sockets, picking stuff from the floor and eating it. They need gentle guidance from time to tome, the little tinkers.
Ah, bless.
And Mr Smithson, you're old enough to know better.
From my personal experience, most of the retired people I meet seem very happy about their financial situation and realise that they have done better than younger generations are likely to experience. They are more concerned about immigration causing pressures on the countries services and how the economy is going to provide opportunies to their children/grandchildren.
Saw a clip of one parent on ITV last night asking whether people expected to see a child with a bomb strapped to him.
Would it actually be a surprise at this point? After Lee Rigby, the marches proclaiming Death to the West because a cartoon wasn't to the liking of some Muslims, 7/7, numerous foiled terror plots and the attempt to get a Lib Dem deselected because he tweeted a picture of Mohammed?
To ramble some more, this happens at the same time as Russia is trying to re-run the Cold War, a little hotter this time. Obama's never going to go for military action and the vaunted EU (truly, it is deserving of its Peace Prize) can't decide whether to wibble impotently or impotently wibble.
We need some more backbone, whether that's dealing with ex-KGB thugs abroad or zealous lunatics at home. Of course, the former requires the French and Germans to get on board. I'm sure the European spirit will see that happen.
Ridiculous to use the final euro poll results as a comparison with GE polling 10 months out... ICMs early euro polls had UKIP in 3rd place on 20% and Labour clear on 35%, absolutely useless
I've had thoughts like that myself.
If you list out the current Westminster VI scores with all the pollsters in the same order as the Euros there is a broadly similiar spread to the Euros. And you can aduce that UKIP are ~ 14% right now from this lot nationally, but the swing is not uniform as Lord Ashcroft's polling shows.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
Where was your commentary last night?????
Keith @KGBut 3m
To all global warming nutters out there -This "freak" weather we're currently having is technically known as "Summer"
"most of the retired people I meet seem very happy about their financial situation."
That's because many can look back to a childhood and remember real poverty. And I don't mean not having the latest smart phone. I still remember my mother being pleased for weeks when we moved into a new council house with an inside toilet.
Anyway, enough of the "Four Yorkshiremen" sketch.
Life always becomes easier as the time goes on. My grandparents moaned about "today's kids" not knowing they were born. The complications added by technology are voluntary. You will live a lot longer (if you don't scoff so much) - that's why you need to work longer (albeit with a much shorter week). So that's hardly something to complain about. And you may get dementia and die at eighty, rather than die at fifteen of consumption.
And I don't mean you personally, obviously, and I understand it's human nature to moan a bit. Let's face it, we Oldies do that well enough.
I firmly believe that grammar schools give bright working class kids, of all colour and creed, a better chance in life. As I am 59 on Friday it obviously doesn't affect me, and I moved my family out to Buckinghamshire twenty years ago precisely because they still operate the grammar school system, so my grand kids will have the opportunity. Thus my support for grammar schools will not benefit me in anyway, if that makes me in it for myself then so be it.
Oh and the idea of Nick Palmer debating pensions with anyone is simply laughable.
But.
Your response, although of course perceptive as usual, at the same time confirms their concerns that the orthodoxy is to have a multi-culti come-all-ye UK where there are few if any immigration controls and that the UK, thereby, will be changed irrevocably as a result.
Any deviation from that orthodoxy warrants the fruitcake description.
The Kippers have a legitimate desire not to have their country, for which read neighbourhood, changed out of all recognition. Sam has articulated this well on here many times and he is an ex-Labourite for heaven's sake.
Kippers might ask where one draws the line wrt immigration and they would be right to do so.
What infuriates them (and I agree the sneering charge of "metropolitan elite" is facile) is that no one allows them to ask that question.
The 2013 UKIP ICM surge:
Unweighted -> Weighted
Mar 2013 39 -> 42 (1002) 7%
April 2013 55 -> 57 (1005) 9%
May 2013 106 -> 109 (1001) 18%
LE result:23% of vote where candidates stood
June 2013 70 -> 72 (1002) 12%
I am a top rate taxpayer who believes in redistribution from rich to poor. That affects me adversely, but I don't believe in it because I am an altruist, I believe in it because on the whole I believe it will help to create a society which is more at ease with itself, happier and therefore one that it is better and safer to live in - something that does suit me and my family down the ground. Your support for grammar schools (and mine) is along the same lines, I would argue.
These data would all be more interesting if the question were "tick as many as you like"; as it's limited to 3, fanatic-heavy parties are bound to score low in areas outside their core interests.
April 2014 64 -> 67 (1000) 11%
May 2014 89 -> 89 (1000) 15%
June 2014 96 -> 100 (1001) 16%
July 2014 66 -> 57 (1000) 9%
I do not believe that it necessarily means that UKIP supporters are less concerned than others about health and pensions. I would suggest it is more the case that they see no real difference between the two parties - or indeed any of the parties on the issues.
They are not driven by the false ideological divide that Tory and Labour like to pretend exists over these issues - with each looking to gain political ground by accusing the other of undermining, mismanaging or destroying the NHS - and so do not see these as major political battle grounds.
In the same way as when the economy is doing well, it drops share as an issue with many people as they do not see it as something that threatens them directly at that time. But that does not mean they do not care about it at all. In the same way I would assume that most UKIP supporters do not see that a change of government would make much real difference in how their pensions or health care are run and delivered.
Tory and Labour on the other hand still see these as major battlegrounds for ideological reasons and so they rank higher in their concerns.
It's a GE next May - not a poll or a worthless Euro election.
Kipper leadership is not showing any answer to their GE irrelevance questio.
I think a lot of ukip supporters feel trapped. They don't have the money to leave where they live, and the changes the state has made to their hometown makes them want to leave even more
It's like being trapped in a lift on a not day, and the people who you trust to fix it turning the heat up, then calling you names when you complain, while they're sipping a cool drink by a pool
The poll that had the BNP on 4% and UKIP doubling from 9 to 18% was after the locals. Not before.
http://www.icmresearch.com/media-centre/guardian-voting/guardian-poll-may-2013
Polling methodology is too transparent for ICM to "shuffle their figures" even if they wanted to.
(Actual 19.9%, Rallings & Thrasher PNVS 22%, BBC PNVS 23%)
It's not wise to compare Westminster VI polls with actual locals votes or NNESV
ICM was the most accurate at GE2010 (refer to PB rule 1 above)
Well at GE 2010 it understimated Lab by 2% and Con by 1%
ComRes and Populus got the Con % spot on and were both only 2% wrong on Lab. Mori got both main parties within 1%
Despite that PB Rule 1 applies because ICM was less wrong on LD %
Full details on main 2 parties differences between each poll and the actual result?
ICM Guardian: Con -1; Lab -2:
ComRes/ITV/Independent: Con 0; Lab -2:
Angus Reid/PB: Con -1; Lab -6;
Populus/Times: Con 0; Lab -2;
YouGov/Sun: Con -2; Lab -2;
Harris/Daily Mail: Con -2; Lab -1;
MORI/London Evening Standard: Con -1; Lab -1;
But apparently PB rule 1 is not to be challenged.
They worry about multiculturalism becoming ever more entrenched, and governments of all stripes prioritising the interests of growing minority populations over their own descendants.
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/27/guest-slot-rod-crosby-the-bell-tolls-for-labour-and-miliband/
Plus ICM were the most accurate at GEs 1997, 2001 and the AV referendum was spot on
That's the point though. Class/Age/Gender aren't enough anymore. Ethnicity and the public/private split will make polling erratic until they're included.
ICM is "liked" because it's been around the longest - I've often commented that it throws out outlier numbers for individual parties (this month's UKIP may be one such, we'll see) but as a way of looking at the bigger picture over time it's very good.
On topic, it's also interesting to note the figures on crime and welfare benefits listed above so while the top two "concerns" are clearly immigration and Europe, the profile of other concerns is also quite specific with the environment and education also out of kilter.