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As far as punters are concerned the Tories are strong odds-on to win the Batley and Spen by-election

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited June 2021 in General
imageAs far as punters are concerned the Tories are strong odds-on to win the Batley and Spen by-election – politicalbetting.com

On July 1st LAB go into their second difficult northern by-election defence at Batley & Spen and following the loss of Hartlepool on May 6th the Tories are strong favourites to take the seat.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited June 2021
    First......to find out that Mrs U has just seen the news about the delay. Bit worried about my lovely telly, she sounds very angry.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    Adam Brooks
    @EssexPR
    ·
    2h
    Many businesses are back on full rent, but still at reduced capacities, their bounce back loan payments have now started.
    Many in Hospitality sold tickets to events after June 21st, many have stocked up and staffed for it.

    Many are now finished for good.

    SLOW CLAP
    @GOVUK
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    Wait for the great freedom day postponement backlash.

    Or not.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    First......to find out that Mrs U has just seen the news about the delay. Bit worried about my lovely telly, she sounds very angry.

    She wont be the only one.

    'Cry Freedom' my arse as Jim Royle would have said.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    MaxPB said:

    Floater said:

    Iain Martin has a view on any delay

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1403412610129797120

    Ludicrous

    Lilico, one of the more sober analysts, reckons there will be 125K cases a week by then. But only 6K hospitalisations.

    Enough to justify throwing the economy and livelihoods under the bus even more?
    It looks like it. We're going to end up in another lockdown, aren't we? And it'll last until next Spring, won't it? Oh Christ.

    kle4 said:

    BREAKING: The British Medical Association is calling for a delay to the easing of all remaining lockdown restrictions in England due to case numbers ‘rising rapidly’.

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1403375130630295554?s=20

    They were also against the 12 week vaccination strategy.
    Mood music is definitely against reopening properly. For Boris's calculation will it be more or less popular to hold off now? Sadly I think it will be more popular.
    Might be more popular amongst pensioners and the wfh types in leafy surrey. Will definitely not be popular amongst business owners and the young by which i mean anyone under 30 to 35
    This from Labour:

    Nick Thomas-Symonds, the shadow home secretary, said delaying the easing of lockdown would be a huge blow for families and businesses, and said ministers were at fault.

    He said: “Despite warnings from Labour, Sage and others they continued with a reckless border policy that allowed the Delta variant to reach the UK and spread. Now the British people look set to have to pay the price.”


    Now, if Starmer were to stop wibbling on about trans self-identification and hammer on about this, and nothing but this, for the next solid month then he might finally make a dent in the Government's seemingly impregnable polling position. You would hope so. Johnson and the rest of his bloody idiots deserve to pay a price for this. But I bet they won't.
    Christopher Snowdon
    @cjsnowdon
    ·
    3h
    Maybe letting 20,000 people in from India without enforcing self-isolation at a time when we couldn't see our own families wasn't such a good idea after all.
    The Government deserves to be strung up by the unmentionables. If the Opposition can't make political capital out of this disaster, then so do they.
    Remember the public are highly risk averse so a delay may actually be popular
    They deserve death.

    EDIT: I've just had it with this. I'm absolutely done. Sick of suffering for the sake of other people's fear. Fuck em. Fuck em all.
    I'm with you mate. Honestly if Boris Johnson got hit by the Presidential motorcade the country would be better off. He's completely incapable of making any decisions. We need strong leadership at this point to see if the scientists and theirzero COVID permanent lockdown agenda. Boris isn't that person.
    As a matter of interest do you think Starmer, Sturgeon or Drakeford would be any different
    Most likely not. Doesn't make his behaviour any more excusable though.

    Being slightly less woeful than all the alternatives will probably see the wretched man through the rest of this term and another election victory, but it doesn't mean that we cannot hold him in contempt.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    People have tolerated horrendous measures as a necessity for a lot longer than I thought possible, and I am sure they will continue to do so now as people are used to it, but Boris needs to be very convincing when he announces this. Saying it would have been as bad as other waves won't cut it, since that requires us to believe the last 5 months of vaccination was pointless, but other reasonings lack the initial justification of overwhelming the system.

    I don't know how he can be persuasive on the reasoning, and while departing from scientific advice is always a risky move for a politician in these events, he cannot act like they are making the decision and he is just reporting it.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623


    Adam Brooks
    @EssexPR
    ·
    2h
    Many businesses are back on full rent, but still at reduced capacities, their bounce back loan payments have now started.
    Many in Hospitality sold tickets to events after June 21st, many have stocked up and staffed for it.

    Many are now finished for good.

    SLOW CLAP
    @GOVUK

    Maybe it's really truly going to come down to whole sectors and industries collapsing before the government realise this can't go on.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905


    Adam Brooks
    @EssexPR
    ·
    2h
    Many businesses are back on full rent, but still at reduced capacities, their bounce back loan payments have now started.
    Many in Hospitality sold tickets to events after June 21st, many have stocked up and staffed for it.

    Many are now finished for good.

    SLOW CLAP
    @GOVUK

    The one thing that will torpedo this Government below the waterline is economic collapse.

    We need huge numbers of businesses to go to the wall through this. Mass unemployment. The money markets to see that Britain's a turkey and stop lending Sunak the money.

    National bankruptcy and a trip to the Gnomes of Zurich, holding out the begging bowl. It's the only way we're ever getting out of this.

    Bring it on.
  • pingping Posts: 3,724


    Adam Brooks
    @EssexPR
    ·
    2h
    Many businesses are back on full rent, but still at reduced capacities, their bounce back loan payments have now started.
    Many in Hospitality sold tickets to events after June 21st, many have stocked up and staffed for it.

    Many are now finished for good.

    SLOW CLAP
    @GOVUK

    The one thing that will torpedo this Government below the waterline is economic collapse.

    We need huge numbers of businesses to go to the wall through this. Mass unemployment. The money markets to see that Britain's a turkey and stop lending Sunak the money.

    National bankruptcy and a trip to the Gnomes of Zurich, holding out the begging bowl. It's the only way we're ever getting out of this.

    Bring it on.
    Are you serious?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,929
    The first of July is a rest day in Euro 2020, between the round of 16 and the quarter-finals. It might make a difference to the national mood.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited June 2021
    kle4 said:

    People have tolerated horrendous measures as a necessity for a lot longer than I thought possible, and I am sure they will continue to do so now as people are used to it, but Boris needs to be very convincing when he announces this. Saying it would have been as bad as other waves won't cut it, since that requires us to believe the last 5 months of vaccination was pointless, but other reasonings lack the initial justification of overwhelming the system.

    I don't know how he can be persuasive on the reasoning, and while departing from scientific advice is always a risky move for a politician in these events, he cannot act like they are making the decision and he is just reporting it.

    The thing is this isn't a proper lockdown.

    I can go to the cinema, meet up with friends, visit restaurants, holidays, and see the other half.

    Even dogging is now back on the menu.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    It’s a difficult decision to make but hospitalisations and, significantly, ventilation beds in the NW are looking ominous. Hopefully things won’t be as bad this time round but a tough decision to make.


  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Boris would win any leadership challenge and I bet the public will be polled as supporting this delay (and heck, may even win Batley and whatever its called), but it'd be a test of which of the awkward squad are truly bold and which are just not part of the ruling clique, and see if any dare put in a letter.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623

    kle4 said:

    People have tolerated horrendous measures as a necessity for a lot longer than I thought possible, and I am sure they will continue to do so now as people are used to it, but Boris needs to be very convincing when he announces this. Saying it would have been as bad as other waves won't cut it, since that requires us to believe the last 5 months of vaccination was pointless, but other reasonings lack the initial justification of overwhelming the system.

    I don't know how he can be persuasive on the reasoning, and while departing from scientific advice is always a risky move for a politician in these events, he cannot act like they are making the decision and he is just reporting it.

    The thing is this isn't a proper lockdown.

    I can go to the cinema, meet up with friends, visit restaurants, holidays, and see the other half.

    Even dogging is now back on the menu.
    What restaurants are you going to?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043


    Adam Brooks
    @EssexPR
    ·
    2h
    Many businesses are back on full rent, but still at reduced capacities, their bounce back loan payments have now started.
    Many in Hospitality sold tickets to events after June 21st, many have stocked up and staffed for it.

    Many are now finished for good.

    SLOW CLAP
    @GOVUK

    Maybe it's really truly going to come down to whole sectors and industries collapsing before the government realise this can't go on.
    I suspect the 1922 will have acted a while before that happens.

    I can't see the backbenchers taking much more of this government by SAGE and Warwick Uni.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    kle4 said:

    People have tolerated horrendous measures as a necessity for a lot longer than I thought possible, and I am sure they will continue to do so now as people are used to it, but Boris needs to be very convincing when he announces this. Saying it would have been as bad as other waves won't cut it, since that requires us to believe the last 5 months of vaccination was pointless, but other reasonings lack the initial justification of overwhelming the system.

    I don't know how he can be persuasive on the reasoning, and while departing from scientific advice is always a risky move for a politician in these events, he cannot act like they are making the decision and he is just reporting it.

    As @dixiedean sort-of said, the old farts will keep backing him, because fear/triple lock/statues/flags. So the moron will just wibble into the camera and his supporters will shrug their shoulders and accept. No, scrub that, they'll applaud and be delighted that everyone's going to be locked up forever.

    The man's immovable. We're stuck with him.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    MaxPB said:

    Floater said:

    Iain Martin has a view on any delay

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1403412610129797120

    Ludicrous

    Lilico, one of the more sober analysts, reckons there will be 125K cases a week by then. But only 6K hospitalisations.

    Enough to justify throwing the economy and livelihoods under the bus even more?
    It looks like it. We're going to end up in another lockdown, aren't we? And it'll last until next Spring, won't it? Oh Christ.

    kle4 said:

    BREAKING: The British Medical Association is calling for a delay to the easing of all remaining lockdown restrictions in England due to case numbers ‘rising rapidly’.

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1403375130630295554?s=20

    They were also against the 12 week vaccination strategy.
    Mood music is definitely against reopening properly. For Boris's calculation will it be more or less popular to hold off now? Sadly I think it will be more popular.
    Might be more popular amongst pensioners and the wfh types in leafy surrey. Will definitely not be popular amongst business owners and the young by which i mean anyone under 30 to 35
    This from Labour:

    Nick Thomas-Symonds, the shadow home secretary, said delaying the easing of lockdown would be a huge blow for families and businesses, and said ministers were at fault.

    He said: “Despite warnings from Labour, Sage and others they continued with a reckless border policy that allowed the Delta variant to reach the UK and spread. Now the British people look set to have to pay the price.”


    Now, if Starmer were to stop wibbling on about trans self-identification and hammer on about this, and nothing but this, for the next solid month then he might finally make a dent in the Government's seemingly impregnable polling position. You would hope so. Johnson and the rest of his bloody idiots deserve to pay a price for this. But I bet they won't.
    Christopher Snowdon
    @cjsnowdon
    ·
    3h
    Maybe letting 20,000 people in from India without enforcing self-isolation at a time when we couldn't see our own families wasn't such a good idea after all.
    The Government deserves to be strung up by the unmentionables. If the Opposition can't make political capital out of this disaster, then so do they.
    Remember the public are highly risk averse so a delay may actually be popular
    They deserve death.

    EDIT: I've just had it with this. I'm absolutely done. Sick of suffering for the sake of other people's fear. Fuck em. Fuck em all.
    I'm with you mate. Honestly if Boris Johnson got hit by the Presidential motorcade the country would be better off. He's completely incapable of making any decisions. We need strong leadership at this point to see if the scientists and theirzero COVID permanent lockdown agenda. Boris isn't that person.
    As a matter of interest do you think Starmer, Sturgeon or Drakeford would be any different
    Most likely not. Doesn't make his behaviour any more excusable though.

    Being slightly less woeful than all the alternatives will probably see the wretched man through the rest of this term and another election victory, but it doesn't mean that we cannot hold him in contempt.
    Being the smallest turd in the punchbowl makes one no less of a turd.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969

    kle4 said:

    People have tolerated horrendous measures as a necessity for a lot longer than I thought possible, and I am sure they will continue to do so now as people are used to it, but Boris needs to be very convincing when he announces this. Saying it would have been as bad as other waves won't cut it, since that requires us to believe the last 5 months of vaccination was pointless, but other reasonings lack the initial justification of overwhelming the system.

    I don't know how he can be persuasive on the reasoning, and while departing from scientific advice is always a risky move for a politician in these events, he cannot act like they are making the decision and he is just reporting it.

    The thing is this isn't a proper lockdown.

    I can go to the cinema, meet up with friends, visit restaurants, holidays, and see the other half.

    Even dogging is now back on the menu.
    What restaurants are you going to?
    The Ivy in Manchester.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    kle4 said:

    People have tolerated horrendous measures as a necessity for a lot longer than I thought possible, and I am sure they will continue to do so now as people are used to it, but Boris needs to be very convincing when he announces this. Saying it would have been as bad as other waves won't cut it, since that requires us to believe the last 5 months of vaccination was pointless, but other reasonings lack the initial justification of overwhelming the system.

    I don't know how he can be persuasive on the reasoning, and while departing from scientific advice is always a risky move for a politician in these events, he cannot act like they are making the decision and he is just reporting it.

    The thing is this isn't a proper lockdown.

    I can go to the cinema, meet up with friends, visit restaurants, holidays, and see the other half.

    Even dogging is now back on the menu.
    That's true, but halfway measures can still be incredibly frustrating and damaging in a lot of ways. Operating in an irregular way may well not be full lockdown, but it is a massive embuggerance.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    kle4 said:

    People have tolerated horrendous measures as a necessity for a lot longer than I thought possible, and I am sure they will continue to do so now as people are used to it, but Boris needs to be very convincing when he announces this. Saying it would have been as bad as other waves won't cut it, since that requires us to believe the last 5 months of vaccination was pointless, but other reasonings lack the initial justification of overwhelming the system.

    I don't know how he can be persuasive on the reasoning, and while departing from scientific advice is always a risky move for a politician in these events, he cannot act like they are making the decision and he is just reporting it.

    The thing is this isn't a proper lockdown.

    I can go to the cinema, meet up with friends, visit restaurants, holidays, and see the other half.

    Even dogging is now back on the menu.
    What restaurants are you going to?
    He won't be going to them for very much longer. They (or the few that survive what's coming next) will be back to takeaway only in about another fortnight.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited June 2021

    kle4 said:

    People have tolerated horrendous measures as a necessity for a lot longer than I thought possible, and I am sure they will continue to do so now as people are used to it, but Boris needs to be very convincing when he announces this. Saying it would have been as bad as other waves won't cut it, since that requires us to believe the last 5 months of vaccination was pointless, but other reasonings lack the initial justification of overwhelming the system.

    I don't know how he can be persuasive on the reasoning, and while departing from scientific advice is always a risky move for a politician in these events, he cannot act like they are making the decision and he is just reporting it.

    The thing is this isn't a proper lockdown.

    I can go to the cinema, meet up with friends, visit restaurants, holidays, and see the other half.

    Even dogging is now back on the menu.
    What restaurants are you going to?
    Uncle Jack's Seaside Friend Emporium Restaurant and Dogging Station.

    Diversification is key for many businesses.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789


    Adam Brooks
    @EssexPR
    ·
    2h
    Many businesses are back on full rent, but still at reduced capacities, their bounce back loan payments have now started.
    Many in Hospitality sold tickets to events after June 21st, many have stocked up and staffed for it.

    Many are now finished for good.

    SLOW CLAP
    @GOVUK

    The one thing that will torpedo this Government below the waterline is economic collapse.

    We need huge numbers of businesses to go to the wall through this. Mass unemployment. The money markets to see that Britain's a turkey and stop lending Sunak the money.

    National bankruptcy and a trip to the Gnomes of Zurich, holding out the begging bowl. It's the only way we're ever getting out of this.

    Bring it on.
    That's nuts. Even if you think a delay is overcautious, it doesn't mean there's no end in sight. We're are almost at herd immunity.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408


    Adam Brooks
    @EssexPR
    ·
    2h
    Many businesses are back on full rent, but still at reduced capacities, their bounce back loan payments have now started.
    Many in Hospitality sold tickets to events after June 21st, many have stocked up and staffed for it.

    Many are now finished for good.

    SLOW CLAP
    @GOVUK

    The one thing that will torpedo this Government below the waterline is economic collapse.

    We need huge numbers of businesses to go to the wall through this. Mass unemployment. The money markets to see that Britain's a turkey and stop lending Sunak the money.

    National bankruptcy and a trip to the Gnomes of Zurich, holding out the begging bowl. It's the only way we're ever getting out of this.

    Bring it on.
    That's nuts. Even if you think a delay is overcautious, it doesn't mean there's no end in sight. We're are almost at herd immunity.
    A few percent makes the difference to the point opening up cannot happen? And since we need booster shots apparently no doubt herd immunity will be argued as not sufficient either.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    ping said:


    Adam Brooks
    @EssexPR
    ·
    2h
    Many businesses are back on full rent, but still at reduced capacities, their bounce back loan payments have now started.
    Many in Hospitality sold tickets to events after June 21st, many have stocked up and staffed for it.

    Many are now finished for good.

    SLOW CLAP
    @GOVUK

    The one thing that will torpedo this Government below the waterline is economic collapse.

    We need huge numbers of businesses to go to the wall through this. Mass unemployment. The money markets to see that Britain's a turkey and stop lending Sunak the money.

    National bankruptcy and a trip to the Gnomes of Zurich, holding out the begging bowl. It's the only way we're ever getting out of this.

    Bring it on.
    Are you serious?
    Absolutely. The forthcoming lockdown will strangle the country to death anyway.

    The sooner the edifice collapses, and buries Johnson under the rubble, the better. We can only start to rebuild once he, and the threat or reality of eternal lockdown, are gone.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    The thing with Johnson is that it doesn't matter what mistakes he makes, he seems to have the rougeish charm that leads people to forgive him for everything, or find someone else to take the blame on his behalf.

    There are a lot of people in the country who have spent 15 months understandably very scared, and who are now institutionalised in their own homes. They will need coaxing out again. They need a leader who can reassure them that, once double-dosed, they have nothing particularly to fear. They need a leader to project confidence.

    If Johnson comes out on Monday and delays the 21st June ending of legal restrictions, then he will fail completely to be that leader, and instead he will reinforce the worst fears of those in the country who need the opposite message. What it will mean is that, later on, even when restrictions are finally lifted, and people are double-dosed - even booster-dosed against variants - there will be many people too scared to leave their homes.

    I think Johnson has flunked pretty much every test of leadership that he has ever faced, so perhaps it shouldn't come as so much of a surprise to me that he's going to flunk another one, but I really thought the test this time fit his essential happy-go-lucky character that he would see it through.

    What. A. Mess.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004


    Adam Brooks
    @EssexPR
    ·
    2h
    Many businesses are back on full rent, but still at reduced capacities, their bounce back loan payments have now started.
    Many in Hospitality sold tickets to events after June 21st, many have stocked up and staffed for it.

    Many are now finished for good.

    SLOW CLAP
    @GOVUK

    The one thing that will torpedo this Government below the waterline is economic collapse.

    We need huge numbers of businesses to go to the wall through this. Mass unemployment. The money markets to see that Britain's a turkey and stop lending Sunak the money.

    National bankruptcy and a trip to the Gnomes of Zurich, holding out the begging bowl. It's the only way we're ever getting out of this.

    Bring it on.
    Are you really wishing this on our country
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    kle4 said:


    Adam Brooks
    @EssexPR
    ·
    2h
    Many businesses are back on full rent, but still at reduced capacities, their bounce back loan payments have now started.
    Many in Hospitality sold tickets to events after June 21st, many have stocked up and staffed for it.

    Many are now finished for good.

    SLOW CLAP
    @GOVUK

    The one thing that will torpedo this Government below the waterline is economic collapse.

    We need huge numbers of businesses to go to the wall through this. Mass unemployment. The money markets to see that Britain's a turkey and stop lending Sunak the money.

    National bankruptcy and a trip to the Gnomes of Zurich, holding out the begging bowl. It's the only way we're ever getting out of this.

    Bring it on.
    That's nuts. Even if you think a delay is overcautious, it doesn't mean there's no end in sight. We're are almost at herd immunity.
    A few percent makes the difference to the point opening up cannot happen? And since we need booster shots apparently no doubt herd immunity will be argued as not sufficient either.
    That's the thing with exponential growth, it happens very quickly.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905


    Adam Brooks
    @EssexPR
    ·
    2h
    Many businesses are back on full rent, but still at reduced capacities, their bounce back loan payments have now started.
    Many in Hospitality sold tickets to events after June 21st, many have stocked up and staffed for it.

    Many are now finished for good.

    SLOW CLAP
    @GOVUK

    The one thing that will torpedo this Government below the waterline is economic collapse.

    We need huge numbers of businesses to go to the wall through this. Mass unemployment. The money markets to see that Britain's a turkey and stop lending Sunak the money.

    National bankruptcy and a trip to the Gnomes of Zurich, holding out the begging bowl. It's the only way we're ever getting out of this.

    Bring it on.
    Are you really wishing this on our country
    It's coming anyway if we end up locked down from August to next March. The sooner, the better. Like ripping off a plaster. Best done swiftly.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    People have tolerated horrendous measures as a necessity for a lot longer than I thought possible, and I am sure they will continue to do so now as people are used to it, but Boris needs to be very convincing when he announces this. Saying it would have been as bad as other waves won't cut it, since that requires us to believe the last 5 months of vaccination was pointless, but other reasonings lack the initial justification of overwhelming the system.

    I don't know how he can be persuasive on the reasoning, and while departing from scientific advice is always a risky move for a politician in these events, he cannot act like they are making the decision and he is just reporting it.

    The thing is this isn't a proper lockdown.

    I can go to the cinema, meet up with friends, visit restaurants, holidays, and see the other half.

    Even dogging is now back on the menu.
    What restaurants are you going to?
    Uncle Jack's Seaside Friend Emporium Restaurant and Dogging Station.

    Diversification is key for many businesses.
    That reminded me of the comment PJ O'Rourke made about 1980s Paraguay - when he came across "Von Stronheims Taekwondo Parlour, Founded 1946"

    "A little of the worst of all the worlds cultures"
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941


    Adam Brooks
    @EssexPR
    ·
    2h
    Many businesses are back on full rent, but still at reduced capacities, their bounce back loan payments have now started.
    Many in Hospitality sold tickets to events after June 21st, many have stocked up and staffed for it.

    Many are now finished for good.

    SLOW CLAP
    @GOVUK

    The one thing that will torpedo this Government below the waterline is economic collapse.

    We need huge numbers of businesses to go to the wall through this. Mass unemployment. The money markets to see that Britain's a turkey and stop lending Sunak the money.

    National bankruptcy and a trip to the Gnomes of Zurich, holding out the begging bowl. It's the only way we're ever getting out of this.

    Bring it on.
    Are you really wishing this on our country
    It's coming anyway if we end up locked down from August to next March. The sooner, the better. Like ripping off a plaster. Best done swiftly.
    What odds are you offering that the UK is locked down between August and March?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    Once again I see some PBers are sanguine about all this.

    Funny old world.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    God knows how many have died in India...

    https://youtu.be/VK_dzNatq2o
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    ping said:


    Adam Brooks
    @EssexPR
    ·
    2h
    Many businesses are back on full rent, but still at reduced capacities, their bounce back loan payments have now started.
    Many in Hospitality sold tickets to events after June 21st, many have stocked up and staffed for it.

    Many are now finished for good.

    SLOW CLAP
    @GOVUK

    The one thing that will torpedo this Government below the waterline is economic collapse.

    We need huge numbers of businesses to go to the wall through this. Mass unemployment. The money markets to see that Britain's a turkey and stop lending Sunak the money.

    National bankruptcy and a trip to the Gnomes of Zurich, holding out the begging bowl. It's the only way we're ever getting out of this.

    Bring it on.
    Are you serious?
    Absolutely. The forthcoming lockdown will strangle the country to death anyway.

    The sooner the edifice collapses, and buries Johnson under the rubble, the better. We can only start to rebuild once he, and the threat or reality of eternal lockdown, are gone.
    What threat of eternal lockdown? The current decision is more of the "something must be done" variety. They don't want to be accused of indifference if the exit wave means we head back to 100+ deaths per day for a while, which does look plausible.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited June 2021
    Well Mrs U is pissed, but my telly seems safe ( for the moment)....
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    ping said:


    Adam Brooks
    @EssexPR
    ·
    2h
    Many businesses are back on full rent, but still at reduced capacities, their bounce back loan payments have now started.
    Many in Hospitality sold tickets to events after June 21st, many have stocked up and staffed for it.

    Many are now finished for good.

    SLOW CLAP
    @GOVUK

    The one thing that will torpedo this Government below the waterline is economic collapse.

    We need huge numbers of businesses to go to the wall through this. Mass unemployment. The money markets to see that Britain's a turkey and stop lending Sunak the money.

    National bankruptcy and a trip to the Gnomes of Zurich, holding out the begging bowl. It's the only way we're ever getting out of this.

    Bring it on.
    Are you serious?
    Absolutely. The forthcoming lockdown will strangle the country to death anyway.

    The sooner the edifice collapses, and buries Johnson under the rubble, the better. We can only start to rebuild once he, and the threat or reality of eternal lockdown, are gone.
    To be honest you are overreacting

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    This is what happens when you keep on enabling Boris Johnson.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    In the absence of the new variant there would be no debate, we’d definitely be opening up. We have a widely seeded Delta/Indian variant because Boris wanted a trade deal with India. And can we then ask ourselves why he wanted a trade deal with India, why we are looking for new trade deals?

    As for those who are saying “cases don’t matter”, hospitalisations do matter, and in the North West they are rising alarmingly.

    We are paying the price for Johnson’s failures in respect of the border because he wanted a bloody trade deal.

    I’m just resigned to this farrago of incompetence. I can’t even get angry anymore. Hopefully the slowdown in rate of case growth means that we are closer to the peak than feared but I’m not betting the house on that. I’m just praying this, in terms of restrictions, is as bad as it gets.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:


    Adam Brooks
    @EssexPR
    ·
    2h
    Many businesses are back on full rent, but still at reduced capacities, their bounce back loan payments have now started.
    Many in Hospitality sold tickets to events after June 21st, many have stocked up and staffed for it.

    Many are now finished for good.

    SLOW CLAP
    @GOVUK

    The one thing that will torpedo this Government below the waterline is economic collapse.

    We need huge numbers of businesses to go to the wall through this. Mass unemployment. The money markets to see that Britain's a turkey and stop lending Sunak the money.

    National bankruptcy and a trip to the Gnomes of Zurich, holding out the begging bowl. It's the only way we're ever getting out of this.

    Bring it on.
    That's nuts. Even if you think a delay is overcautious, it doesn't mean there's no end in sight. We're are almost at herd immunity.
    A few percent makes the difference to the point opening up cannot happen? And since we need booster shots apparently no doubt herd immunity will be argued as not sufficient either.
    That's the thing with exponential growth, it happens very quickly.
    Yeah, I get that. But the question is whether the continued ongoing cost is still appropriate and reasonable even if that occurs now. Given it can apparently be solved with just sitting tight for 4 weeks with a not-really-lockdown, I question that.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625


    Adam Brooks
    @EssexPR
    ·
    2h
    Many businesses are back on full rent, but still at reduced capacities, their bounce back loan payments have now started.
    Many in Hospitality sold tickets to events after June 21st, many have stocked up and staffed for it.

    Many are now finished for good.

    SLOW CLAP
    @GOVUK

    The one thing that will torpedo this Government below the waterline is economic collapse.

    We need huge numbers of businesses to go to the wall through this. Mass unemployment. The money markets to see that Britain's a turkey and stop lending Sunak the money.

    National bankruptcy and a trip to the Gnomes of Zurich, holding out the begging bowl. It's the only way we're ever getting out of this.

    Bring it on.
    That's nuts. Even if you think a delay is overcautious, it doesn't mean there's no end in sight. We're are almost at herd immunity.
    Half of PB are about to turn in Reavers.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited June 2021


    Adam Brooks
    @EssexPR
    ·
    2h
    Many businesses are back on full rent, but still at reduced capacities, their bounce back loan payments have now started.
    Many in Hospitality sold tickets to events after June 21st, many have stocked up and staffed for it.

    Many are now finished for good.

    SLOW CLAP
    @GOVUK

    The one thing that will torpedo this Government below the waterline is economic collapse.

    We need huge numbers of businesses to go to the wall through this. Mass unemployment. The money markets to see that Britain's a turkey and stop lending Sunak the money.

    National bankruptcy and a trip to the Gnomes of Zurich, holding out the begging bowl. It's the only way we're ever getting out of this.

    Bring it on.
    That's nuts. Even if you think a delay is overcautious, it doesn't mean there's no end in sight. We're are almost at herd immunity.
    IT DOESN'T FUCKING WELL MATTER ANYMORE

    They're not interested in "herd immunity". In their minds it doesn't even exist. They keep wibbling on about "the vaccines not offering 100% protection." They want Zero Covid. They want Zero Death.

    No level of vaccination will ever be good enough. There'll always be an excuse for more restrictions. There'll always be an excuse for more delay.

    Lockdown only ends with the destruction of this Government. And I can't see how that happens any other way but broad scale economic ruin.

    Negative equity and 15% interest rates killed off John Major. We may need something worse to shift Johnson. Whatever it takes. We need to get rid of him.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    I predict a rise in Tory support off this.
    This may have sealed B+S. Although Labour is still value.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:


    Adam Brooks
    @EssexPR
    ·
    2h
    Many businesses are back on full rent, but still at reduced capacities, their bounce back loan payments have now started.
    Many in Hospitality sold tickets to events after June 21st, many have stocked up and staffed for it.

    Many are now finished for good.

    SLOW CLAP
    @GOVUK

    The one thing that will torpedo this Government below the waterline is economic collapse.

    We need huge numbers of businesses to go to the wall through this. Mass unemployment. The money markets to see that Britain's a turkey and stop lending Sunak the money.

    National bankruptcy and a trip to the Gnomes of Zurich, holding out the begging bowl. It's the only way we're ever getting out of this.

    Bring it on.
    That's nuts. Even if you think a delay is overcautious, it doesn't mean there's no end in sight. We're are almost at herd immunity.
    A few percent makes the difference to the point opening up cannot happen? And since we need booster shots apparently no doubt herd immunity will be argued as not sufficient either.
    That's the thing with exponential growth, it happens very quickly.
    Yeah, I get that. But the question is whether the continued ongoing cost is still appropriate and reasonable even if that occurs now. Given it can apparently be solved with just sitting tight for 4 weeks with a not-really-lockdown, I question that.
    Four weeks buys another 14 million vaccinations. So even by sitting still you are gaining a lot of extra immunity.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004


    Adam Brooks
    @EssexPR
    ·
    2h
    Many businesses are back on full rent, but still at reduced capacities, their bounce back loan payments have now started.
    Many in Hospitality sold tickets to events after June 21st, many have stocked up and staffed for it.

    Many are now finished for good.

    SLOW CLAP
    @GOVUK

    The one thing that will torpedo this Government below the waterline is economic collapse.

    We need huge numbers of businesses to go to the wall through this. Mass unemployment. The money markets to see that Britain's a turkey and stop lending Sunak the money.

    National bankruptcy and a trip to the Gnomes of Zurich, holding out the begging bowl. It's the only way we're ever getting out of this.

    Bring it on.
    Are you really wishing this on our country
    It's coming anyway if we end up locked down from August to next March. The sooner, the better. Like ripping off a plaster. Best done swiftly.
    How have we gone from a newspaper report suggesting a four week delay to being in lockdown to next March

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    DougSeal said:

    In the absence of the new variant there would be no debate, we’d definitely be opening up. We have a widely seeded Delta/Indian variant because Boris wanted a trade deal with India. And can we then ask ourselves why he wanted a trade deal with India, why we are looking for new trade deals?

    As for those who are saying “cases don’t matter”, hospitalisations do matter, and in the North West they are rising alarmingly.

    We are paying the price for Johnson’s failures in respect of the border because he wanted a bloody trade deal.

    I’m just resigned to this farrago of incompetence. I can’t even get angry anymore. Hopefully the slowdown in rate of case growth means that we are closer to the peak than feared but I’m not betting the house on that. I’m just praying this, in terms of restrictions, is as bad as it gets.

    For me, the link between Covid-19 and deaths has been broken thanks to the vaccines.

    That's what we should focus on.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    Pb epidemiologists are doing a great job on the third wave so far.

    Cases are not flat they are going down.
    Cases aren't increasing, they are flat.
    Cases are only increasing a bit.
    Case increases don't matter.
    Hospitalisations aren't flat they are going down.
    Hospitalisations aren't increasing, they are flat.
    Hospitalisations are only increasing a bit.
    etc.

    Amazing how these data experts couldn't spot a rising curve on a graph.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    DougSeal said:

    In the absence of the new variant there would be no debate, we’d definitely be opening up. We have a widely seeded Delta/Indian variant because Boris wanted a trade deal with India. And can we then ask ourselves why he wanted a trade deal with India, why we are looking for new trade deals?

    As for those who are saying “cases don’t matter”, hospitalisations do matter, and in the North West they are rising alarmingly.

    We are paying the price for Johnson’s failures in respect of the border because he wanted a bloody trade deal.

    I’m just resigned to this farrago of incompetence. I can’t even get angry anymore. Hopefully the slowdown in rate of case growth means that we are closer to the peak than feared but I’m not betting the house on that. I’m just praying this, in terms of restrictions, is as bad as it gets.

    For me, the link between Covid-19 and deaths has been broken thanks to the vaccines.

    That's what we should focus on.
    Yeah. Capacity in the NHS shouldn't be an issue with the Nightingale Hospitals, if they are still around.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    So, I take it that Gove and Hancock have another little meeting with their SAGE notes and decided that 21st June is off.

    When is Parliament going to debate what level of hospitalisations is acceptable rather than the country being run by two people neither of whom is the PM and an unelected committee?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Is this really news? Surely accent bias has been known and accepted for a long time?

    Essex and London accents deemed less intelligent, researchers find

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-57071805
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:


    Adam Brooks
    @EssexPR
    ·
    2h
    Many businesses are back on full rent, but still at reduced capacities, their bounce back loan payments have now started.
    Many in Hospitality sold tickets to events after June 21st, many have stocked up and staffed for it.

    Many are now finished for good.

    SLOW CLAP
    @GOVUK

    The one thing that will torpedo this Government below the waterline is economic collapse.

    We need huge numbers of businesses to go to the wall through this. Mass unemployment. The money markets to see that Britain's a turkey and stop lending Sunak the money.

    National bankruptcy and a trip to the Gnomes of Zurich, holding out the begging bowl. It's the only way we're ever getting out of this.

    Bring it on.
    That's nuts. Even if you think a delay is overcautious, it doesn't mean there's no end in sight. We're are almost at herd immunity.
    A few percent makes the difference to the point opening up cannot happen? And since we need booster shots apparently no doubt herd immunity will be argued as not sufficient either.
    That's the thing with exponential growth, it happens very quickly.
    Yeah, I get that. But the question is whether the continued ongoing cost is still appropriate and reasonable even if that occurs now. Given it can apparently be solved with just sitting tight for 4 weeks with a not-really-lockdown, I question that.
    Four weeks buys another 14 million vaccinations. So even by sitting still you are gaining a lot of extra immunity.
    So go for eight weeks, buys even more.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    DougSeal said:

    We have a widely seeded Delta/Indian variant because Boris wanted a trade deal with India. And can we then ask ourselves why he wanted a trade deal with India, why we are looking for new trade deals?

    The government has had a lax policy on international travel throughout, but it has been driven by scientific advice. The idea that this had anything to do with desperation for trade deals isn't credible.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Well Mrs U is pissed, but my telly seems safe ( for the moment)....

    Well, best keep it safe, might be needing it for next lockdown...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:


    Adam Brooks
    @EssexPR
    ·
    2h
    Many businesses are back on full rent, but still at reduced capacities, their bounce back loan payments have now started.
    Many in Hospitality sold tickets to events after June 21st, many have stocked up and staffed for it.

    Many are now finished for good.

    SLOW CLAP
    @GOVUK

    The one thing that will torpedo this Government below the waterline is economic collapse.

    We need huge numbers of businesses to go to the wall through this. Mass unemployment. The money markets to see that Britain's a turkey and stop lending Sunak the money.

    National bankruptcy and a trip to the Gnomes of Zurich, holding out the begging bowl. It's the only way we're ever getting out of this.

    Bring it on.
    That's nuts. Even if you think a delay is overcautious, it doesn't mean there's no end in sight. We're are almost at herd immunity.
    A few percent makes the difference to the point opening up cannot happen? And since we need booster shots apparently no doubt herd immunity will be argued as not sufficient either.
    That's the thing with exponential growth, it happens very quickly.
    Yeah, I get that. But the question is whether the continued ongoing cost is still appropriate and reasonable even if that occurs now. Given it can apparently be solved with just sitting tight for 4 weeks with a not-really-lockdown, I question that.
    Four weeks buys another 14 million vaccinations. So even by sitting still you are gaining a lot of extra immunity.
    So go for eight weeks, buys even more.
    But maybe 14 million is enough to bring the R rate down enough. I think that's why a pause is being considered, and why the duration may not be completely arbitrary as you seem to be suggesting.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059

    DougSeal said:

    In the absence of the new variant there would be no debate, we’d definitely be opening up. We have a widely seeded Delta/Indian variant because Boris wanted a trade deal with India. And can we then ask ourselves why he wanted a trade deal with India, why we are looking for new trade deals?

    As for those who are saying “cases don’t matter”, hospitalisations do matter, and in the North West they are rising alarmingly.

    We are paying the price for Johnson’s failures in respect of the border because he wanted a bloody trade deal.

    I’m just resigned to this farrago of incompetence. I can’t even get angry anymore. Hopefully the slowdown in rate of case growth means that we are closer to the peak than feared but I’m not betting the house on that. I’m just praying this, in terms of restrictions, is as bad as it gets.

    For me, the link between Covid-19 and deaths has been broken thanks to the vaccines.

    That's what we should focus on.
    Hospitalisations are also important surely?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059

    DougSeal said:

    We have a widely seeded Delta/Indian variant because Boris wanted a trade deal with India. And can we then ask ourselves why he wanted a trade deal with India, why we are looking for new trade deals?

    The government has had a lax policy on international travel throughout, but it has been driven by scientific advice. The idea that this had anything to do with desperation for trade deals isn't credible.
    So why were Pakistan and Bangladesh put on the Red List well before India?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    edited June 2021
    RobD said:

    DougSeal said:

    In the absence of the new variant there would be no debate, we’d definitely be opening up. We have a widely seeded Delta/Indian variant because Boris wanted a trade deal with India. And can we then ask ourselves why he wanted a trade deal with India, why we are looking for new trade deals?

    As for those who are saying “cases don’t matter”, hospitalisations do matter, and in the North West they are rising alarmingly.

    We are paying the price for Johnson’s failures in respect of the border because he wanted a bloody trade deal.

    I’m just resigned to this farrago of incompetence. I can’t even get angry anymore. Hopefully the slowdown in rate of case growth means that we are closer to the peak than feared but I’m not betting the house on that. I’m just praying this, in terms of restrictions, is as bad as it gets.

    For me, the link between Covid-19 and deaths has been broken thanks to the vaccines.

    That's what we should focus on.
    Yeah. Capacity in the NHS shouldn't be an issue with the Nightingale Hospitals, if they are still around.
    Not enough staff for the real ones, let alone the Potemkin ones.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Foxy said:

    Well Mrs U is pissed, but my telly seems safe ( for the moment)....

    Well, best keep it safe, might be needing it for next lockdown...
    Government by wonky mathematical model.

    Is this what years of studying PPE at Oxford gives us as a political class?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:


    Adam Brooks
    @EssexPR
    ·
    2h
    Many businesses are back on full rent, but still at reduced capacities, their bounce back loan payments have now started.
    Many in Hospitality sold tickets to events after June 21st, many have stocked up and staffed for it.

    Many are now finished for good.

    SLOW CLAP
    @GOVUK

    The one thing that will torpedo this Government below the waterline is economic collapse.

    We need huge numbers of businesses to go to the wall through this. Mass unemployment. The money markets to see that Britain's a turkey and stop lending Sunak the money.

    National bankruptcy and a trip to the Gnomes of Zurich, holding out the begging bowl. It's the only way we're ever getting out of this.

    Bring it on.
    That's nuts. Even if you think a delay is overcautious, it doesn't mean there's no end in sight. We're are almost at herd immunity.
    A few percent makes the difference to the point opening up cannot happen? And since we need booster shots apparently no doubt herd immunity will be argued as not sufficient either.
    That's the thing with exponential growth, it happens very quickly.
    Yeah, I get that. But the question is whether the continued ongoing cost is still appropriate and reasonable even if that occurs now. Given it can apparently be solved with just sitting tight for 4 weeks with a not-really-lockdown, I question that.
    Four weeks buys another 14 million vaccinations. So even by sitting still you are gaining a lot of extra immunity.
    Now if only we had nearly half those sitting in a warehouse....
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    DougSeal said:

    In the absence of the new variant there would be no debate, we’d definitely be opening up. We have a widely seeded Delta/Indian variant because Boris wanted a trade deal with India. And can we then ask ourselves why he wanted a trade deal with India, why we are looking for new trade deals?

    As for those who are saying “cases don’t matter”, hospitalisations do matter, and in the North West they are rising alarmingly.

    We are paying the price for Johnson’s failures in respect of the border because he wanted a bloody trade deal.

    I’m just resigned to this farrago of incompetence. I can’t even get angry anymore. Hopefully the slowdown in rate of case growth means that we are closer to the peak than feared but I’m not betting the house on that. I’m just praying this, in terms of restrictions, is as bad as it gets.

    For me, the link between Covid-19 and deaths has been broken thanks to the vaccines.

    That's what we should focus on.
    Unfortunately, the view seems to be forming that hospitalisations and death rates don't matter, only case numbers.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    In the absence of the new variant there would be no debate, we’d definitely be opening up. We have a widely seeded Delta/Indian variant because Boris wanted a trade deal with India. And can we then ask ourselves why he wanted a trade deal with India, why we are looking for new trade deals?

    As for those who are saying “cases don’t matter”, hospitalisations do matter, and in the North West they are rising alarmingly.

    We are paying the price for Johnson’s failures in respect of the border because he wanted a bloody trade deal.

    I’m just resigned to this farrago of incompetence. I can’t even get angry anymore. Hopefully the slowdown in rate of case growth means that we are closer to the peak than feared but I’m not betting the house on that. I’m just praying this, in terms of restrictions, is as bad as it gets.

    For me, the link between Covid-19 and deaths has been broken thanks to the vaccines.

    That's what we should focus on.
    Hospitalisations are also important surely?
    They are but the fully vaccinated don't need to be locked down any further.

    Just keep the non fully vaccinated under lockdown until 2/3 weeks after they've had their jabs.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    RobD said:

    DougSeal said:

    In the absence of the new variant there would be no debate, we’d definitely be opening up. We have a widely seeded Delta/Indian variant because Boris wanted a trade deal with India. And can we then ask ourselves why he wanted a trade deal with India, why we are looking for new trade deals?

    As for those who are saying “cases don’t matter”, hospitalisations do matter, and in the North West they are rising alarmingly.

    We are paying the price for Johnson’s failures in respect of the border because he wanted a bloody trade deal.

    I’m just resigned to this farrago of incompetence. I can’t even get angry anymore. Hopefully the slowdown in rate of case growth means that we are closer to the peak than feared but I’m not betting the house on that. I’m just praying this, in terms of restrictions, is as bad as it gets.

    For me, the link between Covid-19 and deaths has been broken thanks to the vaccines.

    That's what we should focus on.
    Yeah. Capacity in the NHS shouldn't be an issue with the Nightingale Hospitals, if they are still around.
    Who staffs the Nightingale Hospitals? You can’t build doctors and nurses overnight.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    We have a widely seeded Delta/Indian variant because Boris wanted a trade deal with India. And can we then ask ourselves why he wanted a trade deal with India, why we are looking for new trade deals?

    The government has had a lax policy on international travel throughout, but it has been driven by scientific advice. The idea that this had anything to do with desperation for trade deals isn't credible.
    So why were Pakistan and Bangladesh put on the Red List well before India?
    With fewer case numbers than India.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    In the absence of the new variant there would be no debate, we’d definitely be opening up. We have a widely seeded Delta/Indian variant because Boris wanted a trade deal with India. And can we then ask ourselves why he wanted a trade deal with India, why we are looking for new trade deals?

    As for those who are saying “cases don’t matter”, hospitalisations do matter, and in the North West they are rising alarmingly.

    We are paying the price for Johnson’s failures in respect of the border because he wanted a bloody trade deal.

    I’m just resigned to this farrago of incompetence. I can’t even get angry anymore. Hopefully the slowdown in rate of case growth means that we are closer to the peak than feared but I’m not betting the house on that. I’m just praying this, in terms of restrictions, is as bad as it gets.

    For me, the link between Covid-19 and deaths has been broken thanks to the vaccines.

    That's what we should focus on.
    Hospitalisations are also important surely?
    They are but the fully vaccinated don't need to be locked down any further.

    Just keep the non fully vaccinated under lockdown until 2/3 weeks after they've had their jabs.
    You aren't suggesting a vaccine passport, are you? ;)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    In the absence of the new variant there would be no debate, we’d definitely be opening up. We have a widely seeded Delta/Indian variant because Boris wanted a trade deal with India. And can we then ask ourselves why he wanted a trade deal with India, why we are looking for new trade deals?

    As for those who are saying “cases don’t matter”, hospitalisations do matter, and in the North West they are rising alarmingly.

    We are paying the price for Johnson’s failures in respect of the border because he wanted a bloody trade deal.

    I’m just resigned to this farrago of incompetence. I can’t even get angry anymore. Hopefully the slowdown in rate of case growth means that we are closer to the peak than feared but I’m not betting the house on that. I’m just praying this, in terms of restrictions, is as bad as it gets.

    For me, the link between Covid-19 and deaths has been broken thanks to the vaccines.

    That's what we should focus on.
    Hospitalisations are also important surely?
    They are. Hospitalisation numbers are encouraging, but people in government have stopped caring about them,
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    RobD said:

    DougSeal said:

    In the absence of the new variant there would be no debate, we’d definitely be opening up. We have a widely seeded Delta/Indian variant because Boris wanted a trade deal with India. And can we then ask ourselves why he wanted a trade deal with India, why we are looking for new trade deals?

    As for those who are saying “cases don’t matter”, hospitalisations do matter, and in the North West they are rising alarmingly.

    We are paying the price for Johnson’s failures in respect of the border because he wanted a bloody trade deal.

    I’m just resigned to this farrago of incompetence. I can’t even get angry anymore. Hopefully the slowdown in rate of case growth means that we are closer to the peak than feared but I’m not betting the house on that. I’m just praying this, in terms of restrictions, is as bad as it gets.

    For me, the link between Covid-19 and deaths has been broken thanks to the vaccines.

    That's what we should focus on.
    Yeah. Capacity in the NHS shouldn't be an issue with the Nightingale Hospitals, if they are still around.
    The Nightingale hospitals were simply places to park people - not very much actual medical care possible. Think of them as the lifeboats. No one wants to use them...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:


    Adam Brooks
    @EssexPR
    ·
    2h
    Many businesses are back on full rent, but still at reduced capacities, their bounce back loan payments have now started.
    Many in Hospitality sold tickets to events after June 21st, many have stocked up and staffed for it.

    Many are now finished for good.

    SLOW CLAP
    @GOVUK

    The one thing that will torpedo this Government below the waterline is economic collapse.

    We need huge numbers of businesses to go to the wall through this. Mass unemployment. The money markets to see that Britain's a turkey and stop lending Sunak the money.

    National bankruptcy and a trip to the Gnomes of Zurich, holding out the begging bowl. It's the only way we're ever getting out of this.

    Bring it on.
    That's nuts. Even if you think a delay is overcautious, it doesn't mean there's no end in sight. We're are almost at herd immunity.
    A few percent makes the difference to the point opening up cannot happen? And since we need booster shots apparently no doubt herd immunity will be argued as not sufficient either.
    That's the thing with exponential growth, it happens very quickly.
    Yeah, I get that. But the question is whether the continued ongoing cost is still appropriate and reasonable even if that occurs now. Given it can apparently be solved with just sitting tight for 4 weeks with a not-really-lockdown, I question that.
    Four weeks buys another 14 million vaccinations. So even by sitting still you are gaining a lot of extra immunity.
    So go for eight weeks, buys even more.
    But maybe 14 million is enough to bring the R rate down enough. I think that's why a pause is being considered, and why the duration may not be completely arbitrary as you seem to be suggesting.
    Seems pretty arbitrary to me - the reasoning that has been given thus far seems like it will apply far more widely. Perhaps it won't be applied as widely as the more hysterical fear, but the logic provided doesn't seem to provide such a cut off, meaning we have to rely on the judgment of Boris Johnson about it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    RobD said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    In the absence of the new variant there would be no debate, we’d definitely be opening up. We have a widely seeded Delta/Indian variant because Boris wanted a trade deal with India. And can we then ask ourselves why he wanted a trade deal with India, why we are looking for new trade deals?

    As for those who are saying “cases don’t matter”, hospitalisations do matter, and in the North West they are rising alarmingly.

    We are paying the price for Johnson’s failures in respect of the border because he wanted a bloody trade deal.

    I’m just resigned to this farrago of incompetence. I can’t even get angry anymore. Hopefully the slowdown in rate of case growth means that we are closer to the peak than feared but I’m not betting the house on that. I’m just praying this, in terms of restrictions, is as bad as it gets.

    For me, the link between Covid-19 and deaths has been broken thanks to the vaccines.

    That's what we should focus on.
    Hospitalisations are also important surely?
    They are but the fully vaccinated don't need to be locked down any further.

    Just keep the non fully vaccinated under lockdown until 2/3 weeks after they've had their jabs.
    You aren't suggesting a vaccine passport, are you? ;)
    A freedom pass.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618

    DougSeal said:

    In the absence of the new variant there would be no debate, we’d definitely be opening up. We have a widely seeded Delta/Indian variant because Boris wanted a trade deal with India. And can we then ask ourselves why he wanted a trade deal with India, why we are looking for new trade deals?

    As for those who are saying “cases don’t matter”, hospitalisations do matter, and in the North West they are rising alarmingly.

    We are paying the price for Johnson’s failures in respect of the border because he wanted a bloody trade deal.

    I’m just resigned to this farrago of incompetence. I can’t even get angry anymore. Hopefully the slowdown in rate of case growth means that we are closer to the peak than feared but I’m not betting the house on that. I’m just praying this, in terms of restrictions, is as bad as it gets.

    For me, the link between Covid-19 and deaths has been broken thanks to the vaccines.

    That's what we should focus on.
    Absolutely. Very succinctly put. Yet we aren’t, are we? Where are the government figures making this point, and I mean morning, noon and night? Because that is what it will take, to stop the obsession with positive tests. We need Boris on the telly every bloody few hours saying this. Over and again.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    Sean_F said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    In the absence of the new variant there would be no debate, we’d definitely be opening up. We have a widely seeded Delta/Indian variant because Boris wanted a trade deal with India. And can we then ask ourselves why he wanted a trade deal with India, why we are looking for new trade deals?

    As for those who are saying “cases don’t matter”, hospitalisations do matter, and in the North West they are rising alarmingly.

    We are paying the price for Johnson’s failures in respect of the border because he wanted a bloody trade deal.

    I’m just resigned to this farrago of incompetence. I can’t even get angry anymore. Hopefully the slowdown in rate of case growth means that we are closer to the peak than feared but I’m not betting the house on that. I’m just praying this, in terms of restrictions, is as bad as it gets.

    For me, the link between Covid-19 and deaths has been broken thanks to the vaccines.

    That's what we should focus on.
    Hospitalisations are also important surely?
    They are. Hospitalisation numbers are encouraging, but people in government have stopped caring about them,
    Again, I refer to these charts from the NW showing an ominous trajectory

  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,093
    FPT:
    Final post on design.

    For anyone who remembers the Homeworld 1981 exhibition about houses of the future, in Milton Keynes - it is interesting to go back to Coleshill Place in Milton Keynes to see how it has got on.

    36 homes built by a varied selection of developers.

    Here on Google:
    https://www.google.com/maps/place/Bradwell+Common,+Milton+Keynes/@52.047297,-0.7734721,111m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x48770073f58d2fc5:0xfb61386b5fb2c14!8m2!3d52.0448117!4d-0.7707599

    The programmes about the Money Programme house:
    https://vimeo.com/454408400

    There's a current documentary here, but you'll want to scan through bits of it.

    But an interesting conversation about WFH, and also timber frame house structure built in one day, and others.
    https://vimeo.com/540791219

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:


    Adam Brooks
    @EssexPR
    ·
    2h
    Many businesses are back on full rent, but still at reduced capacities, their bounce back loan payments have now started.
    Many in Hospitality sold tickets to events after June 21st, many have stocked up and staffed for it.

    Many are now finished for good.

    SLOW CLAP
    @GOVUK

    The one thing that will torpedo this Government below the waterline is economic collapse.

    We need huge numbers of businesses to go to the wall through this. Mass unemployment. The money markets to see that Britain's a turkey and stop lending Sunak the money.

    National bankruptcy and a trip to the Gnomes of Zurich, holding out the begging bowl. It's the only way we're ever getting out of this.

    Bring it on.
    That's nuts. Even if you think a delay is overcautious, it doesn't mean there's no end in sight. We're are almost at herd immunity.
    A few percent makes the difference to the point opening up cannot happen? And since we need booster shots apparently no doubt herd immunity will be argued as not sufficient either.
    That's the thing with exponential growth, it happens very quickly.
    Yeah, I get that. But the question is whether the continued ongoing cost is still appropriate and reasonable even if that occurs now. Given it can apparently be solved with just sitting tight for 4 weeks with a not-really-lockdown, I question that.
    Four weeks buys another 14 million vaccinations. So even by sitting still you are gaining a lot of extra immunity.
    So go for eight weeks, buys even more.
    But maybe 14 million is enough to bring the R rate down enough. I think that's why a pause is being considered, and why the duration may not be completely arbitrary as you seem to be suggesting.
    This would be credible if a target in terms of percentage of the population double-dosed was set that would enable legal restrictions to be lifted. But I think it's understandable that people are worried the goalposts will be shifted again - to vaccinating teenagers, say - and then shifted again after that - to giving everyone variant booster doses, etc.

    It's like Zeno's paradox. The end always jumps out of reach every time we think we've reached it. At some point surely we've reached "good enough" and can stop waiting for perfection?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    edited June 2021

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    In the absence of the new variant there would be no debate, we’d definitely be opening up. We have a widely seeded Delta/Indian variant because Boris wanted a trade deal with India. And can we then ask ourselves why he wanted a trade deal with India, why we are looking for new trade deals?

    As for those who are saying “cases don’t matter”, hospitalisations do matter, and in the North West they are rising alarmingly.

    We are paying the price for Johnson’s failures in respect of the border because he wanted a bloody trade deal.

    I’m just resigned to this farrago of incompetence. I can’t even get angry anymore. Hopefully the slowdown in rate of case growth means that we are closer to the peak than feared but I’m not betting the house on that. I’m just praying this, in terms of restrictions, is as bad as it gets.

    For me, the link between Covid-19 and deaths has been broken thanks to the vaccines.

    That's what we should focus on.
    Hospitalisations are also important surely?
    They are but the fully vaccinated don't need to be locked down any further.

    Just keep the non fully vaccinated under lockdown until 2/3 weeks after they've had their jabs.
    Boomer apocalypse.
    Who will wait on them? Who will pull their pints? Who will unlock the garden centres?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    Mark Harper
    @Mark_J_Harper
    ·
    13m
    Just 48 hours ago, Govt sources briefed The Times that weddings were going to be spared from guest limits after 21 June, giving hope to approx 50,000 couples due to get married in the coming weeks.

    The Department for Health is now reported to have killed that idea. So very cruel
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    RobD said:

    DougSeal said:

    In the absence of the new variant there would be no debate, we’d definitely be opening up. We have a widely seeded Delta/Indian variant because Boris wanted a trade deal with India. And can we then ask ourselves why he wanted a trade deal with India, why we are looking for new trade deals?

    As for those who are saying “cases don’t matter”, hospitalisations do matter, and in the North West they are rising alarmingly.

    We are paying the price for Johnson’s failures in respect of the border because he wanted a bloody trade deal.

    I’m just resigned to this farrago of incompetence. I can’t even get angry anymore. Hopefully the slowdown in rate of case growth means that we are closer to the peak than feared but I’m not betting the house on that. I’m just praying this, in terms of restrictions, is as bad as it gets.

    For me, the link between Covid-19 and deaths has been broken thanks to the vaccines.

    That's what we should focus on.
    Yeah. Capacity in the NHS shouldn't be an issue with the Nightingale Hospitals, if they are still around.
    Not enough staff for the real ones, let alone the potemkin ones.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905


    Adam Brooks
    @EssexPR
    ·
    2h
    Many businesses are back on full rent, but still at reduced capacities, their bounce back loan payments have now started.
    Many in Hospitality sold tickets to events after June 21st, many have stocked up and staffed for it.

    Many are now finished for good.

    SLOW CLAP
    @GOVUK

    The one thing that will torpedo this Government below the waterline is economic collapse.

    We need huge numbers of businesses to go to the wall through this. Mass unemployment. The money markets to see that Britain's a turkey and stop lending Sunak the money.

    National bankruptcy and a trip to the Gnomes of Zurich, holding out the begging bowl. It's the only way we're ever getting out of this.

    Bring it on.
    Are you really wishing this on our country
    It's coming anyway if we end up locked down from August to next March. The sooner, the better. Like ripping off a plaster. Best done swiftly.
    How have we gone from a newspaper report suggesting a four week delay to being in lockdown to next March

    Because, as TSE correctly points out, the link between hospitalisations and cases has been smashed (senior NHS execs have said the same thing) and all the vulnerable half of the population will have been double-vaxxed by the 21st. Nearly all have been already, apart from the small minority of refusers about whom we cannot afford to care.

    And yet, here we are, with an outbreak of collective wetting amongst the Government and its advisers about caseload.

    Once Johnson caves to the pressure the direction of travel is obvious. One excuse after another. We'll be made to wait until all adults have been vaccinated. Then until they've been done twice. Then until all the secondary school kids have. Then there'll be a panic over the cold weather, and the flu. and waning immunity (real or alleged) amongst the old, and boosters, and probably more variants along the way.

    The cases will keep growing. Regardless of the hospital situation (which evidence to date suggests won't be serious,) the panic will increase. Measures will be demanded to bring R back below one. SAGE will issue doomsday models insisting that we do it. The Government will cave, and once we're back in lockdown we'll be in it for the entire Winter, just as we were from January through to early April this year.

    Let's put it another way: is it irrational to conclude that this is probably what's coming? If so, why? The success of the vaccines has done nothing to stop the panic, the prevarication, the delay. The Government kept making positive noises right up until about 48 hours ago, and now it turns out it has changed its mind. Of course it has. It lies. Johnson lies. He lies about everything. Why should anybody trust him NOT to lock us up for another seven, eight, nine months?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401

    Once again I see some PBers are sanguine about all this.

    Funny old world.

    Another month of WFH. What's not to like?

    All the shops are open. You can eat out, have a drink. Visit friends and family. Take a holiday. It's hardly like being locked up in Durham Gaol.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    DougSeal said:

    It’s a difficult decision to make but hospitalisations and, significantly, ventilation beds in the NW are looking ominous. Hopefully things won’t be as bad this time round but a tough decision to make.


    FPT Oh really? 🤔

    There was over 4k in hospital in the Northwest in the peak, there's currently 271.

    There were hundreds in hospital in Warrington in the peak, there's currently 3. Not 300, 3.
    Liverpool University Hospitals had over 500 in the peak, there's currently 9.
    Wirral University Teaching Hospital had nearly 300 in the peak, there's currently 3.

    Single digits in hospital Trusts when it was hundreds in hospital most of the pandemic is not awful.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    DougSeal said:

    Sean_F said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    In the absence of the new variant there would be no debate, we’d definitely be opening up. We have a widely seeded Delta/Indian variant because Boris wanted a trade deal with India. And can we then ask ourselves why he wanted a trade deal with India, why we are looking for new trade deals?

    As for those who are saying “cases don’t matter”, hospitalisations do matter, and in the North West they are rising alarmingly.

    We are paying the price for Johnson’s failures in respect of the border because he wanted a bloody trade deal.

    I’m just resigned to this farrago of incompetence. I can’t even get angry anymore. Hopefully the slowdown in rate of case growth means that we are closer to the peak than feared but I’m not betting the house on that. I’m just praying this, in terms of restrictions, is as bad as it gets.

    For me, the link between Covid-19 and deaths has been broken thanks to the vaccines.

    That's what we should focus on.
    Hospitalisations are also important surely?
    They are. Hospitalisation numbers are encouraging, but people in government have stopped caring about them,
    Again, I refer to these charts from the NW showing an ominous trajectory

    The NW is not the UK. And even there, we have the example of Bolton to show how far the Delta variant grows, before it runs into the resistance provided by the vaccine. Bolton's NHS nowhere near being overwhelmed.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    .

    DougSeal said:

    It’s a difficult decision to make but hospitalisations and, significantly, ventilation beds in the NW are looking ominous. Hopefully things won’t be as bad this time round but a tough decision to make.


    FPT Oh really? 🤔

    There was over 4k in hospital in the Northwest in the peak, there's currently 271.

    There were hundreds in hospital in Warrington in the peak, there's currently 3. Not 300, 3.
    Liverpool University Hospitals had over 500 in the peak, there's currently 9.
    Wirral University Teaching Hospital had nearly 300 in the peak, there's currently 3.

    Single digits in hospital Trusts when it was hundreds in hospital most of the pandemic is not awful.
    I think the trajectories are more important than the instantaneous values. You cannot deny that they are on the rise. All except deaths, thankfully.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Also if this is about getting the r rate down, then shouldn't they actually increase measures, not simply not relax further? Yes, vaccines will be having an effect, but the goal is reduce r rate as fast as possible because it is rising at a worrying rate and that is more important than economic and social impacts, then why not go for the measure we know is very effective?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    dixiedean said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    In the absence of the new variant there would be no debate, we’d definitely be opening up. We have a widely seeded Delta/Indian variant because Boris wanted a trade deal with India. And can we then ask ourselves why he wanted a trade deal with India, why we are looking for new trade deals?

    As for those who are saying “cases don’t matter”, hospitalisations do matter, and in the North West they are rising alarmingly.

    We are paying the price for Johnson’s failures in respect of the border because he wanted a bloody trade deal.

    I’m just resigned to this farrago of incompetence. I can’t even get angry anymore. Hopefully the slowdown in rate of case growth means that we are closer to the peak than feared but I’m not betting the house on that. I’m just praying this, in terms of restrictions, is as bad as it gets.

    For me, the link between Covid-19 and deaths has been broken thanks to the vaccines.

    That's what we should focus on.
    Hospitalisations are also important surely?
    They are but the fully vaccinated don't need to be locked down any further.

    Just keep the non fully vaccinated under lockdown until 2/3 weeks after they've had their jabs.
    Boomer apocalypse.
    Who will wait on them? Who will pull their pints? Who will unlock the garden centres?
    Make the oldies work for their pensions whilst da youf are getting fully vaccinated.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,631
    FPT


    It's a legal requirement and I think the law should be obeyed - we don't get to pick and choose what laws we obey or if we do we accept a sanction that comes if we are caught.


    Clipped for brevity

    See here is where I part company with you. I think laws should be flagrantly disobeyed when they are bad laws. Often we are in a position where there is no viable party to get a law changed and the only way it gets dropped is via mass civil disobedience. Yes I may get punished but frankly I don't care what johnson says from the 21st I regard no lockdown laws to be worth obeying and I expect to break them flagrantly and frequently


  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Once again I see some PBers are sanguine about all this.

    Funny old world.

    Another month of WFH. What's not to like?

    All the shops are open. You can eat out, have a drink. Visit friends and family. Take a holiday. It's hardly like being locked up in Durham Gaol.
    You can do all this stuff for another few weeks. Until we end up with "Stay Home. Protect the NHS. Save Lives." Until next Easter.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    edited June 2021
    It'll be infuriating if Galloway costs Labour this seat. And for what? To topple Starmer and get a hard left replacement? That will not be happening. Even if the 1st part works (which I doubt) the 2nd part won't. There's no hard left candidate with a ghost of a chance of becoming leader. Galloway surely knows this. He's only standing to get on the telly. Really sad state of affairs.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    DougSeal said:

    Sean_F said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    In the absence of the new variant there would be no debate, we’d definitely be opening up. We have a widely seeded Delta/Indian variant because Boris wanted a trade deal with India. And can we then ask ourselves why he wanted a trade deal with India, why we are looking for new trade deals?

    As for those who are saying “cases don’t matter”, hospitalisations do matter, and in the North West they are rising alarmingly.

    We are paying the price for Johnson’s failures in respect of the border because he wanted a bloody trade deal.

    I’m just resigned to this farrago of incompetence. I can’t even get angry anymore. Hopefully the slowdown in rate of case growth means that we are closer to the peak than feared but I’m not betting the house on that. I’m just praying this, in terms of restrictions, is as bad as it gets.

    For me, the link between Covid-19 and deaths has been broken thanks to the vaccines.

    That's what we should focus on.
    Hospitalisations are also important surely?
    They are. Hospitalisation numbers are encouraging, but people in government have stopped caring about them,
    Again, I refer to these charts from the NW showing an ominous trajectory

    Graphs based on percentages are potentially misleadingly scary if you're starting from a much lower base. The fact that deaths are not following the same pattern is significant.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,089
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:


    Adam Brooks
    @EssexPR
    ·
    2h
    Many businesses are back on full rent, but still at reduced capacities, their bounce back loan payments have now started.
    Many in Hospitality sold tickets to events after June 21st, many have stocked up and staffed for it.

    Many are now finished for good.

    SLOW CLAP
    @GOVUK

    The one thing that will torpedo this Government below the waterline is economic collapse.

    We need huge numbers of businesses to go to the wall through this. Mass unemployment. The money markets to see that Britain's a turkey and stop lending Sunak the money.

    National bankruptcy and a trip to the Gnomes of Zurich, holding out the begging bowl. It's the only way we're ever getting out of this.

    Bring it on.
    That's nuts. Even if you think a delay is overcautious, it doesn't mean there's no end in sight. We're are almost at herd immunity.
    A few percent makes the difference to the point opening up cannot happen? And since we need booster shots apparently no doubt herd immunity will be argued as not sufficient either.
    That's the thing with exponential growth, it happens very quickly.
    And if you try to ignore it, it will keep growing until you have no choice but to pay it attention.

    Delaying the final stage of unlocking will be rubbish. But all the graphs are starting on the same trends as the last time and the time before. Slower, and with a better cases-to-deaths ratio, because the vaccines work. But as of today, there are enough people out there who aren't fully immune to make further opening up an act of insanity. We're so close to herd immunity that we can almost touch it. Even a poor month would be another 15 million jabs. But almost isn't good enough.

    And yes, government heads should roll for this. The PM should be invited to sit in a giant Venus Flytrap at the Eden project and await further instructions. But the failure was the mismanagement of travel from India a few months ago. The decision being leaked now and announced Monday is just working out the consequences of that.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    kle4 said:

    Also if this is about getting the r rate down, then shouldn't they actually increase measures, not simply not relax further? Yes, vaccines will be having an effect, but the goal is reduce r rate as fast as possible because it is rising at a worrying rate and that is more important than economic and social impacts, then why not go for the measure we know is very effective?

    Another full lockdown would be quite expensive, for starters. I think they are just looking for ways to delay it enough to get the vaccine distributed as widely as possible, not to suppress it.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059

    DougSeal said:

    It’s a difficult decision to make but hospitalisations and, significantly, ventilation beds in the NW are looking ominous. Hopefully things won’t be as bad this time round but a tough decision to make.


    FPT Oh really? 🤔

    There was over 4k in hospital in the Northwest in the peak, there's currently 271.

    There were hundreds in hospital in Warrington in the peak, there's currently 3. Not 300, 3.
    Liverpool University Hospitals had over 500 in the peak, there's currently 9.
    Wirral University Teaching Hospital had nearly 300 in the peak, there's currently 3.

    Single digits in hospital Trusts when it was hundreds in hospital most of the pandemic is not awful.
    The lines on the graphs are heading north. That’s the point. We are not yet at the peak. Yes, Bolton looks okay, but Bolton isn’t the whole NW
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226

    Once again I see some PBers are sanguine about all this.

    Funny old world.

    Another month of WFH. What's not to like?

    All the shops are open. You can eat out, have a drink. Visit friends and family. Take a holiday. It's hardly like being locked up in Durham Gaol.
    You won’t be eating out or going for a drink if those places go bust, because they couldn’t turn a profit with the restrictions.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905


    Mark Harper
    @Mark_J_Harper
    ·
    13m
    Just 48 hours ago, Govt sources briefed The Times that weddings were going to be spared from guest limits after 21 June, giving hope to approx 50,000 couples due to get married in the coming weeks.

    The Department for Health is now reported to have killed that idea. So very cruel

    Futile words.

    Call for Johnson's head on a platter and we might believe you give a shit.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059

    DougSeal said:

    Sean_F said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    In the absence of the new variant there would be no debate, we’d definitely be opening up. We have a widely seeded Delta/Indian variant because Boris wanted a trade deal with India. And can we then ask ourselves why he wanted a trade deal with India, why we are looking for new trade deals?

    As for those who are saying “cases don’t matter”, hospitalisations do matter, and in the North West they are rising alarmingly.

    We are paying the price for Johnson’s failures in respect of the border because he wanted a bloody trade deal.

    I’m just resigned to this farrago of incompetence. I can’t even get angry anymore. Hopefully the slowdown in rate of case growth means that we are closer to the peak than feared but I’m not betting the house on that. I’m just praying this, in terms of restrictions, is as bad as it gets.

    For me, the link between Covid-19 and deaths has been broken thanks to the vaccines.

    That's what we should focus on.
    Hospitalisations are also important surely?
    They are. Hospitalisation numbers are encouraging, but people in government have stopped caring about them,
    Again, I refer to these charts from the NW showing an ominous trajectory

    Graphs based on percentages are potentially misleadingly scary if you're starting from a much lower base. The fact that deaths are not following the same pattern is significant.
    I don’t think anyone thinks deaths will be as bad this time around, not from Covid anyway.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625


    Adam Brooks
    @EssexPR
    ·
    2h
    Many businesses are back on full rent, but still at reduced capacities, their bounce back loan payments have now started.
    Many in Hospitality sold tickets to events after June 21st, many have stocked up and staffed for it.

    Many are now finished for good.

    SLOW CLAP
    @GOVUK

    The one thing that will torpedo this Government below the waterline is economic collapse.

    We need huge numbers of businesses to go to the wall through this. Mass unemployment. The money markets to see that Britain's a turkey and stop lending Sunak the money.

    National bankruptcy and a trip to the Gnomes of Zurich, holding out the begging bowl. It's the only way we're ever getting out of this.

    Bring it on.
    Are you really wishing this on our country
    It's coming anyway if we end up locked down from August to next March. The sooner, the better. Like ripping off a plaster. Best done swiftly.
    How have we gone from a newspaper report suggesting a four week delay to being in lockdown to next March

    Because, as TSE correctly points out, the link between hospitalisations and cases has been smashed (senior NHS execs have said the same thing) and all the vulnerable half of the population will have been double-vaxxed by the 21st. Nearly all have been already, apart from the small minority of refusers about whom we cannot afford to care.

    And yet, here we are, with an outbreak of collective wetting amongst the Government and its advisers about caseload.

    Once Johnson caves to the pressure the direction of travel is obvious. One excuse after another. We'll be made to wait until all adults have been vaccinated. Then until they've been done twice. Then until all the secondary school kids have. Then there'll be a panic over the cold weather, and the flu. and waning immunity (real or alleged) amongst the old, and boosters, and probably more variants along the way.

    The cases will keep growing. Regardless of the hospital situation (which evidence to date suggests won't be serious,) the panic will increase. Measures will be demanded to bring R back below one. SAGE will issue doomsday models insisting that we do it. The Government will cave, and once we're back in lockdown we'll be in it for the entire Winter, just as we were from January through to early April this year.

    Let's put it another way: is it irrational to conclude that this is probably what's coming? If so, why? The success of the vaccines has done nothing to stop the panic, the prevarication, the delay. The Government kept making positive noises right up until about 48 hours ago, and now it turns out it has changed its mind. Of course it has. It lies. Johnson lies. He lies about everything. Why should anybody trust him NOT to lock us up for another seven, eight, nine months?
    Well, we have

    image

    and

    image

    and

    image
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226
    edited June 2021
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    It’s a difficult decision to make but hospitalisations and, significantly, ventilation beds in the NW are looking ominous. Hopefully things won’t be as bad this time round but a tough decision to make.


    FPT Oh really? 🤔

    There was over 4k in hospital in the Northwest in the peak, there's currently 271.

    There were hundreds in hospital in Warrington in the peak, there's currently 3. Not 300, 3.
    Liverpool University Hospitals had over 500 in the peak, there's currently 9.
    Wirral University Teaching Hospital had nearly 300 in the peak, there's currently 3.

    Single digits in hospital Trusts when it was hundreds in hospital most of the pandemic is not awful.
    The lines on the graphs are heading north. That’s the point. We are not yet at the peak. Yes, Bolton looks okay, but Bolton isn’t the whole NW
    Who cares. If you get a serious case of covid at this point it’s your own bloody fault.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    The difference between this exit wave (which was always a part of the model for Pete's sake) and the prior waves is what happens next.

    Some dingbats are projecting as if there will be ongoing exponential growth from here, but there can't be, there aren't sufficient people left to infect. 80% of adults already have antibodies by now. The exit wave is just the virus burning out in the final areas and then that's it, over. Just as happened in Israel when they had much less immunity than we do now.

    The in-hospital figures now are about 1% in many hospital trusts in the Northwest (supposedly the epicentre) compared to what they were in the past.

    The reality is that in the first and second waves the heatmap of cases started in the young, then spread to the elderly groups who got hospitalised and died. That won't happen this time. The elderly groups are double-vaccinated already. That's the difference.

    To lose your nerve and panic here is chickenshit bollocks that will lead to devastation in the economy. Businesses need the summer, more than we need to remain locked down.

    If Boris loses his nerve now he is not fit to be Prime Minister and needs to go.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004


    Adam Brooks
    @EssexPR
    ·
    2h
    Many businesses are back on full rent, but still at reduced capacities, their bounce back loan payments have now started.
    Many in Hospitality sold tickets to events after June 21st, many have stocked up and staffed for it.

    Many are now finished for good.

    SLOW CLAP
    @GOVUK

    The one thing that will torpedo this Government below the waterline is economic collapse.

    We need huge numbers of businesses to go to the wall through this. Mass unemployment. The money markets to see that Britain's a turkey and stop lending Sunak the money.

    National bankruptcy and a trip to the Gnomes of Zurich, holding out the begging bowl. It's the only way we're ever getting out of this.

    Bring it on.
    Are you really wishing this on our country
    It's coming anyway if we end up locked down from August to next March. The sooner, the better. Like ripping off a plaster. Best done swiftly.
    How have we gone from a newspaper report suggesting a four week delay to being in lockdown to next March

    Because, as TSE correctly points out, the link between hospitalisations and cases has been smashed (senior NHS execs have said the same thing) and all the vulnerable half of the population will have been double-vaxxed by the 21st. Nearly all have been already, apart from the small minority of refusers about whom we cannot afford to care.

    And yet, here we are, with an outbreak of collective wetting amongst the Government and its advisers about caseload.

    Once Johnson caves to the pressure the direction of travel is obvious. One excuse after another. We'll be made to wait until all adults have been vaccinated. Then until they've been done twice. Then until all the secondary school kids have. Then there'll be a panic over the cold weather, and the flu. and waning immunity (real or alleged) amongst the old, and boosters, and probably more variants along the way.

    The cases will keep growing. Regardless of the hospital situation (which evidence to date suggests won't be serious,) the panic will increase. Measures will be demanded to bring R back below one. SAGE will issue doomsday models insisting that we do it. The Government will cave, and once we're back in lockdown we'll be in it for the entire Winter, just as we were from January through to early April this year.

    Let's put it another way: is it irrational to conclude that this is probably what's coming? If so, why? The success of the vaccines has done nothing to stop the panic, the prevarication, the delay. The Government kept making positive noises right up until about 48 hours ago, and now it turns out it has changed its mind. Of course it has. It lies. Johnson lies. He lies about everything. Why should anybody trust him NOT to lock us up for another seven, eight, nine months?
    I have read the telegraph article and it does not convey anything that is recognisable in your comments
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    kle4 said:

    Also if this is about getting the r rate down, then shouldn't they actually increase measures, not simply not relax further? Yes, vaccines will be having an effect, but the goal is reduce r rate as fast as possible because it is rising at a worrying rate and that is more important than economic and social impacts, then why not go for the measure we know is very effective?

    I think, politically, that would be a step too far. He can get away with this but no more.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,631
    It is very simple the vaccines work or they dont.

    If the vaccines work we can unlock

    If the vaccines dont work we may as well unlock but we cannot afford to put the country on hold much longer anyway
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Sean_F said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    In the absence of the new variant there would be no debate, we’d definitely be opening up. We have a widely seeded Delta/Indian variant because Boris wanted a trade deal with India. And can we then ask ourselves why he wanted a trade deal with India, why we are looking for new trade deals?

    As for those who are saying “cases don’t matter”, hospitalisations do matter, and in the North West they are rising alarmingly.

    We are paying the price for Johnson’s failures in respect of the border because he wanted a bloody trade deal.

    I’m just resigned to this farrago of incompetence. I can’t even get angry anymore. Hopefully the slowdown in rate of case growth means that we are closer to the peak than feared but I’m not betting the house on that. I’m just praying this, in terms of restrictions, is as bad as it gets.

    For me, the link between Covid-19 and deaths has been broken thanks to the vaccines.

    That's what we should focus on.
    Hospitalisations are also important surely?
    They are. Hospitalisation numbers are encouraging, but people in government have stopped caring about them,
    Again, I refer to these charts from the NW showing an ominous trajectory

    Graphs based on percentages are potentially misleadingly scary if you're starting from a much lower base. The fact that deaths are not following the same pattern is significant.
    I don’t think anyone thinks deaths will be as bad this time around, not from Covid anyway.
    People clearly do think that, as they are saying that by claiming it will be as bad as previous waves.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959

    DougSeal said:

    We have a widely seeded Delta/Indian variant because Boris wanted a trade deal with India. And can we then ask ourselves why he wanted a trade deal with India, why we are looking for new trade deals?

    The government has had a lax policy on international travel throughout, but it has been driven by scientific advice. The idea that this had anything to do with desperation for trade deals isn't credible.
    If it was credible, Starmer would have made hay with it.

    Wouldn't he?
This discussion has been closed.