In the absence of the new variant there would be no debate, we’d definitely be opening up. We have a widely seeded Delta/Indian variant because Boris wanted a trade deal with India. And can we then ask ourselves why he wanted a trade deal with India, why we are looking for new trade deals?
As for those who are saying “cases don’t matter”, hospitalisations do matter, and in the North West they are rising alarmingly.
We are paying the price for Johnson’s failures in respect of the border because he wanted a bloody trade deal.
I’m just resigned to this farrago of incompetence. I can’t even get angry anymore. Hopefully the slowdown in rate of case growth means that we are closer to the peak than feared but I’m not betting the house on that. I’m just praying this, in terms of restrictions, is as bad as it gets.
For me, the link between Covid-19 and deaths has been broken thanks to the vaccines.
That's what we should focus on.
Hospitalisations are also important surely?
They are. Hospitalisation numbers are encouraging, but people in government have stopped caring about them,
Again, I refer to these charts from the NW showing an ominous trajectory
Graphs based on percentages are potentially misleadingly scary if you're starting from a much lower base. The fact that deaths are not following the same pattern is significant.
I don’t think anyone thinks deaths will be as bad this time around, not from Covid anyway.
People clearly do think that, as they are saying that by claiming it will be as bad as previous waves.
No, they are saying as many cases as in previous waves, I can’t see many references (outside the usual suspects) regarding deaths. All the indications show that cases could be as bad, hospitalisations too, but deaths have, thankfully, not shown much of a rise at all.
How in the name of God can the hospitalisations get as bad as last time? The overwhelming majority of the vulnerable half of the population has been double-jabbed, providing high levels of protection against symptomatic illness and very high levels of protection against severe illness. Hospitalisation amongst younger age groups is comparatively uncommon, the bulk of the fortysomethings have also had at least one dose plus time for it to work, and where younger people are being admitted they are typically less seriously ill, require less care and stay for shorter periods.
We have heard as much from the Chief Exec of NHS Providers. We have seen as much in the hospitalisation stats from Bolton.
How are we going to end up back in January? It's literally incredible.
It’s happening. Sure, Bolton’s looking good, but hospitalisations in the NW as a whole are starting to track exactly the numbers at the start of the second wave. There is not an insignificant level of vaccine escape with this new variant and over 2 million over 50s are not yet fully vaccinated - this 47 year old is not happy he’s only had one dose given it’s only 33% effective at one dose compared to two.
I don’t like this situation either. I just want to burn my mask and get a train into town. If we had kept Delta out we wouldn’t be in this piss poor situation. But hospitalisations are rising. Numbers on ventilators are rising. Both exponentially. You can’t just shrug your shoulders at that. Blame Johnson for sure, not for this decision, but for the one he failed to take in March or early April. It’s on him.
On your first point, it absolutely isn't true. The growth rate of hospitalisations in NW region is well below the same stage in wave 2 and the growth rate for hospital numbers is even less than that.
On your other point about your personal situation, no one is going to force you to go out on June 21st. You can stay at home and wear masks all the time if you want until your second dose. Don't force your fear onto the rest of us who have only had one dose but are happy to take that minute risk.
For the past month, the British people have been softened up like butter under a rolling pin for bad news about June 21.
Cautious Cabinet “doves” have been so successful that the only surprise Boris Johnson could spring next week would be to announce Covid curbs will be lifted after all.
As we now know, that is not going to happen, and the debate is already moving on to whether the delay will last for four weeks - taking us to July 19 - or even longer.
It’s a difficult decision to make but hospitalisations and, significantly, ventilation beds in the NW are looking ominous. Hopefully things won’t be as bad this time round but a tough decision to make.
I said earlier today that the key figures wasn't cases, hospital occupancy or even admissions.
I said it was mechanical ventilation numbers.
And that I was fairly relaxed.
However I didn't realise the NW mechanical ventilation numbers were rising so fast. Still about half the speed of autumn so not pant shitting just yet but unequivocally cause for concern.
Boris should resign obviously.
That scale is extremely misleading, worthy of that Hames fellow from last year. It shows the current wave as a proportion of the previous wave, on a logarithmic scale. It should be on a linear scale becuase both series (wave 2 and wave 3) are exponential.
I think you are misreading it. 100% is the highest figure reached in January this year. Plotting it on a linear scale wouldn't change anything about how they looked in relation to each other.
The only reason they have chosen percentage over raw numbers is it means they don't have to have a number range for each chart.
I don't have a problem with it being a proportion, but an exponential figure being a proportion of another exponential figure already has that in built, the scale should then be linear.
It's the proportion of a single number, not of the exponential curve.
In the absence of the new variant there would be no debate, we’d definitely be opening up. We have a widely seeded Delta/Indian variant because Boris wanted a trade deal with India. And can we then ask ourselves why he wanted a trade deal with India, why we are looking for new trade deals?
As for those who are saying “cases don’t matter”, hospitalisations do matter, and in the North West they are rising alarmingly.
We are paying the price for Johnson’s failures in respect of the border because he wanted a bloody trade deal.
I’m just resigned to this farrago of incompetence. I can’t even get angry anymore. Hopefully the slowdown in rate of case growth means that we are closer to the peak than feared but I’m not betting the house on that. I’m just praying this, in terms of restrictions, is as bad as it gets.
For me, the link between Covid-19 and deaths has been broken thanks to the vaccines.
That's what we should focus on.
Hospitalisations are also important surely?
They are. Hospitalisation numbers are encouraging, but people in government have stopped caring about them,
Again, I refer to these charts from the NW showing an ominous trajectory
Graphs based on percentages are potentially misleadingly scary if you're starting from a much lower base. The fact that deaths are not following the same pattern is significant.
I don’t think anyone thinks deaths will be as bad this time around, not from Covid anyway.
People clearly do think that, as they are saying that by claiming it will be as bad as previous waves.
No, they are saying as many cases as in previous waves, I can’t see many references (outside the usual suspects) regarding deaths. All the indications show that cases could be as bad, hospitalisations too, but deaths have, thankfully, not shown much of a rise at all.
How in the name of God can the hospitalisations get as bad as last time? The overwhelming majority of the vulnerable half of the population has been double-jabbed, providing high levels of protection against symptomatic illness and very high levels of protection against severe illness. Hospitalisation amongst younger age groups is comparatively uncommon, the bulk of the fortysomethings have also had at least one dose plus time for it to work, and where younger people are being admitted they are typically less seriously ill, require less care and stay for shorter periods.
We have heard as much from the Chief Exec of NHS Providers. We have seen as much in the hospitalisation stats from Bolton.
How are we going to end up back in January? It's literally incredible.
It’s happening. Sure, Bolton’s looking good, but hospitalisations in the NW as a whole are starting to track exactly the numbers at the start of the second wave. There is not an insignificant level of vaccine escape with this new variant and over 2 million over 50s are not yet fully vaccinated - this 47 year old is not happy he’s only had one dose given it’s only 33% effective at one dose compared to two.
I don’t like this situation either. I just want to burn my mask and get a train into town. If we had kept Delta out we wouldn’t be in this piss poor situation. But hospitalisations are rising. Numbers on ventilators are rising. Both exponentially. You can’t just shrug your shoulders at that. Blame Johnson for sure, not for this decision, but for the one he failed to take in March or early April. It’s on him.
On your first point, it absolutely isn't true. The growth rate of hospitalisations in NW region is well below the same stage in wave 2 and the growth rate for hospital numbers is even less than that.
On your other point about your personal situation, no one is going to force you to go out on June 21st. You can stay at home and wear masks all the time if you want until your second dose. Don't force your fear onto the rest of us who have only had one dose but are happy to take that minute risk.
We have a widely seeded Delta/Indian variant because Boris wanted a trade deal with India. And can we then ask ourselves why he wanted a trade deal with India, why we are looking for new trade deals?
The government has had a lax policy on international travel throughout, but it has been driven by scientific advice. The idea that this had anything to do with desperation for trade deals isn't credible.
If it was credible, Starmer would have made hay with it.
Wouldn't he?
He's too busy getting involved in the TERF wars and wibbling about Boris not taking the knee.
He's not getting involved in the TERF wars. He simply reaffirmed the commitment of this country's main political party of the progressive left to LGBT rights. It's allowed.
This is a dire backdrop for Boris at the G7 tomorrow
Even as the sun finally shines on St Ives, he presides over half a nation waking up to his fucking stupidity, and a continued or even worsened lockdown, just because he made the insane decision to allow in 20,000 Indian travellers, for no good reason whatsoever, when everyone else said NO, STOP
Meanwhile, he will be surrounded by smiling G7 leaders who don't have this problem, because they didn't make this fucking crazy decision
It’s a difficult decision to make but hospitalisations and, significantly, ventilation beds in the NW are looking ominous. Hopefully things won’t be as bad this time round but a tough decision to make.
FPT Oh really? 🤔
There was over 4k in hospital in the Northwest in the peak, there's currently 271.
There were hundreds in hospital in Warrington in the peak, there's currently 3. Not 300, 3. Liverpool University Hospitals had over 500 in the peak, there's currently 9. Wirral University Teaching Hospital had nearly 300 in the peak, there's currently 3.
Single digits in hospital Trusts when it was hundreds in hospital most of the pandemic is not awful.
I think the trajectories are more important than the instantaneous values. You cannot deny that they are on the rise. All except deaths, thankfully.
I couldn't give the hairy crack of a rats arse that they're on the rise from virtually zero. Warrington's gone from 1 to 3 - big whoop! Big frigging deal!
Its not going to go from 3 to 300 because the vulnerable have been double-vaccinated already!
I think you're misinterpreting the plot. It's the %age of the previous peak, not %age growth from a smaller base.
Yes and its a completely misleading chart as its on log scale.
So in hospital figures aren't half-way up the chart as it appears, they're at ~5% of the peak - and the chart is much flatter this time and isn't growing as fast too.
Deaths are ~2% of the peak and flatter and not growing.
Because the vulnerable have been protected by the vaccine.
How is it misleading? Log plots are useful for this kind of data. The point it conveys is that the current curves are tracking the last wave quite closely, except for deaths of course.
It absolutely does not show that.
New admissions, total patients and deaths are all far, far, far flatter than last time. Because the virus has broken the link between cases and serious illness.
Actually, the gradient (which shows the growth rate) for the total and new admissions is virtually identical now. Hard to tell for those on a ventilator, but the sample is smaller so the curve is noisier. We could actually compute the derivative of each curve if you wanted to see the growth rate. I think we'd end up with very similar values for the two waves.
The character of the epidemic has changed with widespread antibodies in the population. It has gone from a geometric series to an arithmetic series, or by analogy from compound interest to simple interest. Each flare up peters out instead of spreading like wildfire.
We are definitely focusing on a region, and not the country as a whole. It would be interesting to look at neighbouring regions to see if a similar uptick is seen. If not, that does suggest a critical mass of protection has been reached. I'd hate to make the choice of what to do on June 19th. I'd be tempted to say f*** it, and continue as planned.
Neighbouring parts of Wales are doing great. On the dashboard map it’s a bit like those nighttime satellite shots of North and South Korea. It’s the growth of dark green and blue into the rest of England that is a bit shite.
Adam Brooks @EssexPR · 2h Many businesses are back on full rent, but still at reduced capacities, their bounce back loan payments have now started. Many in Hospitality sold tickets to events after June 21st, many have stocked up and staffed for it.
The one thing that will torpedo this Government below the waterline is economic collapse.
We need huge numbers of businesses to go to the wall through this. Mass unemployment. The money markets to see that Britain's a turkey and stop lending Sunak the money.
National bankruptcy and a trip to the Gnomes of Zurich, holding out the begging bowl. It's the only way we're ever getting out of this.
Bring it on.
That's nuts. Even if you think a delay is overcautious, it doesn't mean there's no end in sight. We're are almost at herd immunity.
IT DOESN'T FUCKING WELL MATTER ANYMORE
They're not interested in "herd immunity". In their minds it doesn't even exist. They keep wibbling on about "the vaccines not offering 100% protection." They want Zero Covid. They want Zero Death.
No level of vaccination will ever be good enough. There'll always be an excuse for more restrictions. There'll always be an excuse for more delay.
Lockdown only ends with the destruction of this Government. And I can't see how that happens any other way but broad scale economic ruin.
Negative equity and 15% interest rates killed off John Major. We may need something worse to shift Johnson. Whatever it takes. We need to get rid of him.
You are sounding unhinged again. I will give you odds of 10/1 on their still being legal domestic restrictions by end of Sept.
Your £1 against my £10.
I know I do. And I really, REALLY hope I'm wrong. I'd love to be proven totally wrong. I'd delight in it. There would be an explosion of relief and joy from this general direction if the first delay also turns out to be the last.
But you do understand why I don't trust Boris Johnson - surely you must?
God yes. The bloke's an utter charlatan. If it worked for him politically he'd reimpose hard lockdown and keep it there for years. I just think you're misreading the situation. A short pause in the roadmap is one thing. A tortured and prolonged twilight to the pandemic is quite another. He won't be doing what you fear. It won't play out like that. I absolutely promise you and that's not something I do lightly. If you won't take my bet, take my promise.
It is obvious that his instincts are very strongly against lockdown, and that if he is forced into lockdown extensions it will be out of necessity. This site is collectively singing from a hymn sheet which says "Are we nearly there, daddy?" and then "But daddy, you PROMISED we were nearly there" and refuses to recognize the exigencies of life. The Tory Party did not invent the virus and has next to no control over how it behaves. Especially not once lockdown has been removed from its toolkit by pb fiat.
That's a trivilisation of much of the reaction. The argument is over whether the data truly does support continued imposition of measures as a necessity, something people will of course disagree about.
That's not the same as the case being overwhelmingly made, and thus anyone disagreeing ignoring reality. People are weighing up the risks and costs differently, even if there is a rise in cases, hospitalisations and, yes, even deaths, to a point. That's not pretending it is all over, but whether the measures are still necessary and proportionate notwithstanding that.
I'd argue if the situation is as bad as the government is now saying then it should be imposing harsher measures, and asking why they are not.
For the past month, the British people have been softened up like butter under a rolling pin for bad news about June 21.
Cautious Cabinet “doves” have been so successful that the only surprise Boris Johnson could spring next week would be to announce Covid curbs will be lifted after all.
As we now know, that is not going to happen, and the debate is already moving on to whether the delay will last for four weeks - taking us to July 19 - or even longer.
I don't want the nightclubs to open to rush out to them on the first night; we will wait till my other half is double jabbed - but there might not be any clubs or live music if places don't open soon :e
It’s a difficult decision to make but hospitalisations and, significantly, ventilation beds in the NW are looking ominous. Hopefully things won’t be as bad this time round but a tough decision to make.
I said earlier today that the key figures wasn't cases, hospital occupancy or even admissions.
I said it was mechanical ventilation numbers.
And that I was fairly relaxed.
However I didn't realise the NW mechanical ventilation numbers were rising so fast. Still about half the speed of autumn so not pant shitting just yet but unequivocally cause for concern.
Boris should resign obviously.
That scale is extremely misleading, worthy of that Hames fellow from last year. It shows the current wave as a proportion of the previous wave, on a logarithmic scale. It should be on a linear scale becuase both series (wave 2 and wave 3) are exponential.
I think you are misreading it. 100% is the highest figure reached in January this year. Plotting it on a linear scale wouldn't change anything about how they looked in relation to each other.
The only reason they have chosen percentage over raw numbers is it means they don't have to have a number range for each chart.
I don't have a problem with it being a proportion, but an exponential figure being a proportion of another exponential figure already has that in built, the scale should then be linear.
It's the proportion of a single number, not of the exponential curve.
If that's what it's supposed to show then something is wrong with the data, because the current case number is not ~30% of the January peak.
It’s a difficult decision to make but hospitalisations and, significantly, ventilation beds in the NW are looking ominous. Hopefully things won’t be as bad this time round but a tough decision to make.
FPT Oh really? 🤔
There was over 4k in hospital in the Northwest in the peak, there's currently 271.
There were hundreds in hospital in Warrington in the peak, there's currently 3. Not 300, 3. Liverpool University Hospitals had over 500 in the peak, there's currently 9. Wirral University Teaching Hospital had nearly 300 in the peak, there's currently 3.
Single digits in hospital Trusts when it was hundreds in hospital most of the pandemic is not awful.
I think the trajectories are more important than the instantaneous values. You cannot deny that they are on the rise. All except deaths, thankfully.
I couldn't give the hairy crack of a rats arse that they're on the rise from virtually zero. Warrington's gone from 1 to 3 - big whoop! Big frigging deal!
Its not going to go from 3 to 300 because the vulnerable have been double-vaccinated already!
Trend lines all say different.
"Trend lines"
Riddle me this, how is it going to trend forever upwards when 80% of the adult population have antibodies already and virtually 100% of JCVI Groups 1-9 have had two jabs from a 99% effective vaccine?
I think the fraction above 50 that have been vaccinated is quite a bit off 100%, unfortunately.
Because we've not gotten around to vaccinating them yet despite them wanting it?
Or because they've rejected it? In which case screw them, they made their choice.
I'm just saying your claim that "virtually 100% of JCVI Groups 1-9 have had two jabs" is wrong.
There's a reason that virtually was there as opposed to literally.
It wasn't wrong. Anyone who refused the vaccine: fuck them.
For the past month, the British people have been softened up like butter under a rolling pin for bad news about June 21.
Cautious Cabinet “doves” have been so successful that the only surprise Boris Johnson could spring next week would be to announce Covid curbs will be lifted after all.
As we now know, that is not going to happen, and the debate is already moving on to whether the delay will last for four weeks - taking us to July 19 - or even longer.
And there goes the summer. Fuck this government, fuck the scientists and fuck all of the wankers who support continued measures. Anyone who wants to lock themselves up is still free to do so.
Time to start planning an escape to a country that will actually be free of this shite one day. The UK will never truly be a free country again, the zero COVID c***s have won, the rest of us are all going to lose.
It’s a difficult decision to make but hospitalisations and, significantly, ventilation beds in the NW are looking ominous. Hopefully things won’t be as bad this time round but a tough decision to make.
FPT Oh really? 🤔
There was over 4k in hospital in the Northwest in the peak, there's currently 271.
There were hundreds in hospital in Warrington in the peak, there's currently 3. Not 300, 3. Liverpool University Hospitals had over 500 in the peak, there's currently 9. Wirral University Teaching Hospital had nearly 300 in the peak, there's currently 3.
Single digits in hospital Trusts when it was hundreds in hospital most of the pandemic is not awful.
I think the trajectories are more important than the instantaneous values. You cannot deny that they are on the rise. All except deaths, thankfully.
I couldn't give the hairy crack of a rats arse that they're on the rise from virtually zero. Warrington's gone from 1 to 3 - big whoop! Big frigging deal!
Its not going to go from 3 to 300 because the vulnerable have been double-vaccinated already!
Trend lines all say different.
"Trend lines"
Riddle me this, how is it going to trend forever upwards when 80% of the adult population have antibodies already and virtually 100% of JCVI Groups 1-9 have had two jabs from a 99% effective vaccine?
I think the fraction above 50 that have been vaccinated is quite a bit off 100%, unfortunately.
Because we've not gotten around to vaccinating them yet despite them wanting it?
Or because they've rejected it? In which case screw them, they made their choice.
I'm just saying your claim that "virtually 100% of JCVI Groups 1-9 have had two jabs" is wrong.
There's a reason that virtually was there as opposed to literally.
It wasn't wrong. Anyone who refused the vaccine: fuck them.
Virtually implies something like >99%. It's probably closer to 90%, leaving a significant number vulnerable.
Adam Brooks @EssexPR · 2h Many businesses are back on full rent, but still at reduced capacities, their bounce back loan payments have now started. Many in Hospitality sold tickets to events after June 21st, many have stocked up and staffed for it.
The one thing that will torpedo this Government below the waterline is economic collapse.
We need huge numbers of businesses to go to the wall through this. Mass unemployment. The money markets to see that Britain's a turkey and stop lending Sunak the money.
National bankruptcy and a trip to the Gnomes of Zurich, holding out the begging bowl. It's the only way we're ever getting out of this.
Bring it on.
That's nuts. Even if you think a delay is overcautious, it doesn't mean there's no end in sight. We're are almost at herd immunity.
IT DOESN'T FUCKING WELL MATTER ANYMORE
They're not interested in "herd immunity". In their minds it doesn't even exist. They keep wibbling on about "the vaccines not offering 100% protection." They want Zero Covid. They want Zero Death.
No level of vaccination will ever be good enough. There'll always be an excuse for more restrictions. There'll always be an excuse for more delay.
Lockdown only ends with the destruction of this Government. And I can't see how that happens any other way but broad scale economic ruin.
Negative equity and 15% interest rates killed off John Major. We may need something worse to shift Johnson. Whatever it takes. We need to get rid of him.
You are sounding unhinged again. I will give you odds of 10/1 on their still being legal domestic restrictions by end of Sept.
Your £1 against my £10.
I know I do. And I really, REALLY hope I'm wrong. I'd love to be proven totally wrong. I'd delight in it. There would be an explosion of relief and joy from this general direction if the first delay also turns out to be the last.
But you do understand why I don't trust Boris Johnson - surely you must?
God yes. The bloke's an utter charlatan. If it worked for him politically he'd reimpose hard lockdown and keep it there for years. I just think you're misreading the situation. A short pause in the roadmap is one thing. A tortured and prolonged twilight to the pandemic is quite another. He won't be doing what you fear. It won't play out like that. I absolutely promise you and that's not something I do lightly. If you won't take my bet, take my promise.
It is obvious that his instincts are very strongly against lockdown, and that if he is forced into lockdown extensions it will be out of necessity. This site is collectively singing from a hymn sheet which says "Are we nearly there, daddy?" and then "But daddy, you PROMISED we were nearly there" and refuses to recognize the exigencies of life. The Tory Party did not invent the virus and has next to no control over how it behaves. Especially not once lockdown has been removed from its toolkit by pb fiat.
Nah, sorry, Boris had the chance to close the border with India and prevent the massive seeding of the variant. This is not "one of the exigencies of life". This is a plain old mistake. Which will now cost thousands of lives and many billions of pounds,
This is about as obvious a mistake as you get, in politics
I take it there is no suggestion of tightening restrictions? Just keeping the ones we have? In which case businesses turning a profit should be able to continue to do so. What we don't know is how many actually are right now.
One thing that's worth remembering is that people do not respond only to formal legal restrictions. They make choices themselves. So if Johnson scares the bejesus out of the country by delaying June 21st due to the Delta variant, then it's possible that places that are making a profit now will stop making a profit.
Well indeed. However, some folk are hyper sensitive to case numbers. And will adjust their behaviour as a result. So that may happen regardless.
It’s a difficult decision to make but hospitalisations and, significantly, ventilation beds in the NW are looking ominous. Hopefully things won’t be as bad this time round but a tough decision to make.
I said earlier today that the key figures wasn't cases, hospital occupancy or even admissions.
I said it was mechanical ventilation numbers.
And that I was fairly relaxed.
However I didn't realise the NW mechanical ventilation numbers were rising so fast. Still about half the speed of autumn so not pant shitting just yet but unequivocally cause for concern.
Boris should resign obviously.
That scale is extremely misleading, worthy of that Hames fellow from last year. It shows the current wave as a proportion of the previous wave, on a logarithmic scale. It should be on a linear scale becuase both series (wave 2 and wave 3) are exponential.
I think you are misreading it. 100% is the highest figure reached in January this year. Plotting it on a linear scale wouldn't change anything about how they looked in relation to each other.
The only reason they have chosen percentage over raw numbers is it means they don't have to have a number range for each chart.
I don't have a problem with it being a proportion, but an exponential figure being a proportion of another exponential figure already has that in built, the scale should then be linear.
Having a log scale means you can never get to zero.
It’s a difficult decision to make but hospitalisations and, significantly, ventilation beds in the NW are looking ominous. Hopefully things won’t be as bad this time round but a tough decision to make.
I said earlier today that the key figures wasn't cases, hospital occupancy or even admissions.
I said it was mechanical ventilation numbers.
And that I was fairly relaxed.
However I didn't realise the NW mechanical ventilation numbers were rising so fast. Still about half the speed of autumn so not pant shitting just yet but unequivocally cause for concern.
Boris should resign obviously.
That scale is extremely misleading, worthy of that Hames fellow from last year. It shows the current wave as a proportion of the previous wave, on a logarithmic scale. It should be on a linear scale becuase both series (wave 2 and wave 3) are exponential.
I think you are misreading it. 100% is the highest figure reached in January this year. Plotting it on a linear scale wouldn't change anything about how they looked in relation to each other.
The only reason they have chosen percentage over raw numbers is it means they don't have to have a number range for each chart.
I don't have a problem with it being a proportion, but an exponential figure being a proportion of another exponential figure already has that in built, the scale should then be linear.
It's the proportion of a single number, not of the exponential curve.
If that's what it's supposed to show then something is wrong with the data, because the current case number is not ~30% of the January peak.
What's being plotted is log(x/n) and log(y/n), where x=curve from second wave, y=curve from third wave, and n=peak of second wave. It might be that the data is wrong, but there's nothing sinister about the way it is plotted.
I'm trying to stay calm in the face of these rumours - truth is it's not entirely Johnson - he's listening to the public who are information-light and a good proportion of the lumpen, truth be told, are enjoying all this, at least in a wallowing-in-the-misery, blitz-spirit sense. And, importantly, are relishing the clipping of wings of those who actually had good lives before all this.
What concerns me most this evening is this: What happens after the rumoured 4 week delay?
Go forward 4 weeks and let's say infections are slightly up again, hospitalisations slightly up and maybe the same for deaths. The figures will be tiny in proportion to the national population and not comparable to the situation we were in in the past. And an even greater proportion of new infections are numbers only with few actually getting ill or exhibiting any symptoms at all. And a good proportion of those that do become ill are unvaccinated by their own agency.
So, in the light of the above, here's the questions: if the government don't remove legal restrictions on 21 June why would they in 4 weeks' time?
The vaccines are our only silver bullet. There isn't another. This government are incapable of telling us that we have to live with Covid to some degree.
It’s a difficult decision to make but hospitalisations and, significantly, ventilation beds in the NW are looking ominous. Hopefully things won’t be as bad this time round but a tough decision to make.
I said earlier today that the key figures wasn't cases, hospital occupancy or even admissions.
I said it was mechanical ventilation numbers.
And that I was fairly relaxed.
However I didn't realise the NW mechanical ventilation numbers were rising so fast. Still about half the speed of autumn so not pant shitting just yet but unequivocally cause for concern.
Boris should resign obviously.
That scale is extremely misleading, worthy of that Hames fellow from last year. It shows the current wave as a proportion of the previous wave, on a logarithmic scale. It should be on a linear scale becuase both series (wave 2 and wave 3) are exponential.
I think you are misreading it. 100% is the highest figure reached in January this year. Plotting it on a linear scale wouldn't change anything about how they looked in relation to each other.
The only reason they have chosen percentage over raw numbers is it means they don't have to have a number range for each chart.
I don't have a problem with it being a proportion, but an exponential figure being a proportion of another exponential figure already has that in built, the scale should then be linear.
It's the proportion of the January peak for each metric.
Those percentages aren't growth or anything like that.
In the absence of the new variant there would be no debate, we’d definitely be opening up. We have a widely seeded Delta/Indian variant because Boris wanted a trade deal with India. And can we then ask ourselves why he wanted a trade deal with India, why we are looking for new trade deals?
As for those who are saying “cases don’t matter”, hospitalisations do matter, and in the North West they are rising alarmingly.
We are paying the price for Johnson’s failures in respect of the border because he wanted a bloody trade deal.
I’m just resigned to this farrago of incompetence. I can’t even get angry anymore. Hopefully the slowdown in rate of case growth means that we are closer to the peak than feared but I’m not betting the house on that. I’m just praying this, in terms of restrictions, is as bad as it gets.
For me, the link between Covid-19 and deaths has been broken thanks to the vaccines.
That's what we should focus on.
Hospitalisations are also important surely?
They are. Hospitalisation numbers are encouraging, but people in government have stopped caring about them,
Again, I refer to these charts from the NW showing an ominous trajectory
Graphs based on percentages are potentially misleadingly scary if you're starting from a much lower base. The fact that deaths are not following the same pattern is significant.
I don’t think anyone thinks deaths will be as bad this time around, not from Covid anyway.
People clearly do think that, as they are saying that by claiming it will be as bad as previous waves.
No, they are saying as many cases as in previous waves, I can’t see many references (outside the usual suspects) regarding deaths. All the indications show that cases could be as bad, hospitalisations too, but deaths have, thankfully, not shown much of a rise at all.
How in the name of God can the hospitalisations get as bad as last time? The overwhelming majority of the vulnerable half of the population has been double-jabbed, providing high levels of protection against symptomatic illness and very high levels of protection against severe illness. Hospitalisation amongst younger age groups is comparatively uncommon, the bulk of the fortysomethings have also had at least one dose plus time for it to work, and where younger people are being admitted they are typically less seriously ill, require less care and stay for shorter periods.
We have heard as much from the Chief Exec of NHS Providers. We have seen as much in the hospitalisation stats from Bolton.
How are we going to end up back in January? It's literally incredible.
It’s happening. Sure, Bolton’s looking good, but hospitalisations in the NW as a whole are starting to track exactly the numbers at the start of the second wave. There is not an insignificant level of vaccine escape with this new variant and over 2 million over 50s are not yet fully vaccinated - this 47 year old is not happy he’s only had one dose given it’s only 33% effective at one dose compared to two.
I don’t like this situation either. I just want to burn my mask and get a train into town. If we had kept Delta out we wouldn’t be in this piss poor situation. But hospitalisations are rising. Numbers on ventilators are rising. Both exponentially. You can’t just shrug your shoulders at that. Blame Johnson for sure, not for this decision, but for the one he failed to take in March or early April. It’s on him.
On your first point, it absolutely isn't true. The growth rate of hospitalisations in NW region is well below the same stage in wave 2 and the growth rate for hospital numbers is even less than that.
On your other point about your personal situation, no one is going to force you to go out on June 21st. You can stay at home and wear masks all the time if you want until your second dose. Don't force your fear onto the rest of us who have only had one dose but are happy to take that minute risk.
How effective are the vaccines against Delta?
Highly effective. Implied efficacy of 96% against hospitalisation based on released data, and probably around 99.5% once age and mortality profiles of fully vaccinated cohorts are taken into account.
This is a dire backdrop for Boris at the G7 tomorrow
Even as the sun finally shines on St Ives, he presides over half a nation waking up to his fucking stupidity, and a continued or even worsened lockdown, just because he made the insane decision to allow in 20,000 Indian travellers, for no good reason whatsoever, when everyone else said NO, STOP
Meanwhile, he will be surrounded by smiling G7 leaders who don't have this problem, because they didn't make this fucking crazy decision
Tricky
Anyone who wants to predict what happens next is a fool. There is a slim chance we are closing on the peak of this wave already (see Bolton and the slight decrease in the national weekly rate of growth from 63% to 58% in the last couple of days) so things could improve very very quickly. Or there could be an increasing number of people on ventilation over the next month pushing us back to Stage 2 or Stage 1.
Remember the South African variant? I’d quite like to be in SA right now.
But, really, fuck this 4 -week extension to lockdown or even longer. Fuck Sage. Fuck the stupid controlling useless government which has thrown away the advantages of the vaccination programme, has fucked around over closing the borders to travel from the Indian sub-continent and is now going to fuck with my Daughter's business and my son's jobs and mine even more than they have fucked them already. Fuck all the bossy advisors expecting us to stay away from those we love forever.
Adam Brooks @EssexPR · 2h Many businesses are back on full rent, but still at reduced capacities, their bounce back loan payments have now started. Many in Hospitality sold tickets to events after June 21st, many have stocked up and staffed for it.
The one thing that will torpedo this Government below the waterline is economic collapse.
We need huge numbers of businesses to go to the wall through this. Mass unemployment. The money markets to see that Britain's a turkey and stop lending Sunak the money.
National bankruptcy and a trip to the Gnomes of Zurich, holding out the begging bowl. It's the only way we're ever getting out of this.
Bring it on.
That's nuts. Even if you think a delay is overcautious, it doesn't mean there's no end in sight. We're are almost at herd immunity.
IT DOESN'T FUCKING WELL MATTER ANYMORE
They're not interested in "herd immunity". In their minds it doesn't even exist. They keep wibbling on about "the vaccines not offering 100% protection." They want Zero Covid. They want Zero Death.
No level of vaccination will ever be good enough. There'll always be an excuse for more restrictions. There'll always be an excuse for more delay.
Lockdown only ends with the destruction of this Government. And I can't see how that happens any other way but broad scale economic ruin.
Negative equity and 15% interest rates killed off John Major. We may need something worse to shift Johnson. Whatever it takes. We need to get rid of him.
You are sounding unhinged again. I will give you odds of 10/1 on their still being legal domestic restrictions by end of Sept.
Your £1 against my £10.
I know I do. And I really, REALLY hope I'm wrong. I'd love to be proven totally wrong. I'd delight in it. There would be an explosion of relief and joy from this general direction if the first delay also turns out to be the last.
But you do understand why I don't trust Boris Johnson - surely you must?
God yes. The bloke's an utter charlatan. If it worked for him politically he'd reimpose hard lockdown and keep it there for years. I just think you're misreading the situation. A short pause in the roadmap is one thing. A tortured and prolonged twilight to the pandemic is quite another. He won't be doing what you fear. It won't play out like that. I absolutely promise you and that's not something I do lightly. If you won't take my bet, take my promise.
It is obvious that his instincts are very strongly against lockdown, and that if he is forced into lockdown extensions it will be out of necessity. This site is collectively singing from a hymn sheet which says "Are we nearly there, daddy?" and then "But daddy, you PROMISED we were nearly there" and refuses to recognize the exigencies of life. The Tory Party did not invent the virus and has next to no control over how it behaves. Especially not once lockdown has been removed from its toolkit by pb fiat.
Nah, sorry, Boris had the chance to close the border with India and prevent the massive seeding of the variant. This is not "one of the exigencies of life". This is a plain old mistake. Which will now cost thousands of lives and many billions of pounds,
This is about as obvious a mistake as you get, in politics
Agreed, but it was a libertarian, permissive, lazy mistake; it was the mistake someone fundamentally anti lockdown would make. So enough of the pound shop 1984 "a boot imposing a mask on a human face forevah" stuff which so many of our esteemed fellow posters are offering us.
On topic, Galloway won't win but he will pull in enough of the Muslim vote where he will allow the Tories to win. What might be interesting is if he beats Labour (unlikely but possible).
It’s a difficult decision to make but hospitalisations and, significantly, ventilation beds in the NW are looking ominous. Hopefully things won’t be as bad this time round but a tough decision to make.
I said earlier today that the key figures wasn't cases, hospital occupancy or even admissions.
I said it was mechanical ventilation numbers.
And that I was fairly relaxed.
However I didn't realise the NW mechanical ventilation numbers were rising so fast. Still about half the speed of autumn so not pant shitting just yet but unequivocally cause for concern.
Boris should resign obviously.
That scale is extremely misleading, worthy of that Hames fellow from last year. It shows the current wave as a proportion of the previous wave, on a logarithmic scale. It should be on a linear scale becuase both series (wave 2 and wave 3) are exponential.
I think you are misreading it. 100% is the highest figure reached in January this year. Plotting it on a linear scale wouldn't change anything about how they looked in relation to each other.
The only reason they have chosen percentage over raw numbers is it means they don't have to have a number range for each chart.
I don't have a problem with it being a proportion, but an exponential figure being a proportion of another exponential figure already has that in built, the scale should then be linear.
It's the proportion of a single number, not of the exponential curve.
If that's what it's supposed to show then something is wrong with the data, because the current case number is not ~30% of the January peak.
The Jan peak for the North West (7 day average) was 6245 cases per day. Latest 7gday average figure is 1593 which is 26%
But, really, fuck this 4 -week extension to lockdown or even longer. Fuck Sage. Fuck the stupid controlling useless government which has thrown away the advantages of the vaccination programme, has fucked around over closing the borders to travel from the Indian sub-continent and is now going to fuck with my Daughter's business and my son's jobs and mine even more than they have fucked them already. Fuck all the bossy advisors expecting us to stay away from those we love forever.
Fuck. Off. All of them.
🤬🤬🤬🤬
That is all.
My mp already has a letter from me much to this effect.
Given I expected this delay, I'm much angrier than I thought I'd be. Especially about weddings - doesn't affect me personally (was lucky enough to have mine in summer 2019 before all this) but it really is ruining a major life event for a very large number of people for no good reason.
I expect we can count on a single hand the number of days before the press is covered in people calling for tighter restrictions. Fuck them. We're closing in on 80% of adults vaccinated, 60% with two doses. Those that are left are either very low risk or not worthy of our freedoms being curtailed in order to protect (those who refused the vaccine).
The worst thing is this will be popular because people remain scared.
In the absence of the new variant there would be no debate, we’d definitely be opening up. We have a widely seeded Delta/Indian variant because Boris wanted a trade deal with India. And can we then ask ourselves why he wanted a trade deal with India, why we are looking for new trade deals?
As for those who are saying “cases don’t matter”, hospitalisations do matter, and in the North West they are rising alarmingly.
We are paying the price for Johnson’s failures in respect of the border because he wanted a bloody trade deal.
I’m just resigned to this farrago of incompetence. I can’t even get angry anymore. Hopefully the slowdown in rate of case growth means that we are closer to the peak than feared but I’m not betting the house on that. I’m just praying this, in terms of restrictions, is as bad as it gets.
For me, the link between Covid-19 and deaths has been broken thanks to the vaccines.
That's what we should focus on.
Hospitalisations are also important surely?
They are. Hospitalisation numbers are encouraging, but people in government have stopped caring about them,
Again, I refer to these charts from the NW showing an ominous trajectory
Graphs based on percentages are potentially misleadingly scary if you're starting from a much lower base. The fact that deaths are not following the same pattern is significant.
I don’t think anyone thinks deaths will be as bad this time around, not from Covid anyway.
People clearly do think that, as they are saying that by claiming it will be as bad as previous waves.
No, they are saying as many cases as in previous waves, I can’t see many references (outside the usual suspects) regarding deaths. All the indications show that cases could be as bad, hospitalisations too, but deaths have, thankfully, not shown much of a rise at all.
How in the name of God can the hospitalisations get as bad as last time? The overwhelming majority of the vulnerable half of the population has been double-jabbed, providing high levels of protection against symptomatic illness and very high levels of protection against severe illness. Hospitalisation amongst younger age groups is comparatively uncommon, the bulk of the fortysomethings have also had at least one dose plus time for it to work, and where younger people are being admitted they are typically less seriously ill, require less care and stay for shorter periods.
We have heard as much from the Chief Exec of NHS Providers. We have seen as much in the hospitalisation stats from Bolton.
How are we going to end up back in January? It's literally incredible.
It’s happening. Sure, Bolton’s looking good, but hospitalisations in the NW as a whole are starting to track exactly the numbers at the start of the second wave. There is not an insignificant level of vaccine escape with this new variant and over 2 million over 50s are not yet fully vaccinated - this 47 year old is not happy he’s only had one dose given it’s only 33% effective at one dose compared to two.
I don’t like this situation either. I just want to burn my mask and get a train into town. If we had kept Delta out we wouldn’t be in this piss poor situation. But hospitalisations are rising. Numbers on ventilators are rising. Both exponentially. You can’t just shrug your shoulders at that. Blame Johnson for sure, not for this decision, but for the one he failed to take in March or early April. It’s on him.
On your first point, it absolutely isn't true. The growth rate of hospitalisations in NW region is well below the same stage in wave 2 and the growth rate for hospital numbers is even less than that.
On your other point about your personal situation, no one is going to force you to go out on June 21st. You can stay at home and wear masks all the time if you want until your second dose. Don't force your fear onto the rest of us who have only had one dose but are happy to take that minute risk.
The idea I, as a pseudonymous poster ranting at other (largely) pseudonymous posters also ranting on a message board, can force anyone to do anything is quite charming.
I honestly want someone to go and punch Boris in the face really hard. The c*** deserves it for this bullshit. He's weak and pathetic, tell the scientists to get fucked.
It’s a difficult decision to make but hospitalisations and, significantly, ventilation beds in the NW are looking ominous. Hopefully things won’t be as bad this time round but a tough decision to make.
FPT Oh really? 🤔
There was over 4k in hospital in the Northwest in the peak, there's currently 271.
There were hundreds in hospital in Warrington in the peak, there's currently 3. Not 300, 3. Liverpool University Hospitals had over 500 in the peak, there's currently 9. Wirral University Teaching Hospital had nearly 300 in the peak, there's currently 3.
Single digits in hospital Trusts when it was hundreds in hospital most of the pandemic is not awful.
I think the trajectories are more important than the instantaneous values. You cannot deny that they are on the rise. All except deaths, thankfully.
I couldn't give the hairy crack of a rats arse that they're on the rise from virtually zero. Warrington's gone from 1 to 3 - big whoop! Big frigging deal!
Its not going to go from 3 to 300 because the vulnerable have been double-vaccinated already!
I think you're misinterpreting the plot. It's the %age of the previous peak, not %age growth from a smaller base.
Yes and its a completely misleading chart as its on log scale.
So in hospital figures aren't half-way up the chart as it appears, they're at ~5% of the peak - and the chart is much flatter this time and isn't growing as fast too.
Deaths are ~2% of the peak and flatter and not growing.
Because the vulnerable have been protected by the vaccine.
How is it misleading? Log plots are useful for this kind of data. The point it conveys is that the current curves are tracking the last wave quite closely, except for deaths of course.
It absolutely does not show that.
New admissions, total patients and deaths are all far, far, far flatter than last time. Because the virus has broken the link between cases and serious illness.
Actually, the gradient (which shows the growth rate) for the total and new admissions is virtually identical now. Hard to tell for those on a ventilator, but the sample is smaller so the curve is noisier. We could actually compute the derivative of each curve if you wanted to see the growth rate. I think we'd end up with very similar values for the two waves.
The character of the epidemic has changed with widespread antibodies in the population. It has gone from a geometric series to an arithmetic series, or by analogy from compound interest to simple interest. Each flare up peters out instead of spreading like wildfire.
We are definitely focusing on a region, and not the country as a whole. It would be interesting to look at neighbouring regions to see if a similar uptick is seen. If not, that does suggest a critical mass of protection has been reached. I'd hate to make the choice of what to do on June 19th. I'd be tempted to say f*** it, and continue as planned.
It is spreading, and it might get everywhere eventually - but to what extent is very hard to say. You certainly wouldn't expect areas with above average vaccine take-up, better quality and lower density housing to end up being impacted worse than somewhere like Blackburn, and it is more than holding its own (hospital patients at one-tenth of the total at the January peak, and showing early signs of levelling off as has previously occurred in Bolton.)
Meanwhile, up the road from me in Cambridge, home to one of the East's major teaching hospitals, the Covid patient number has recently skyrocketed from zero to two.
Once again, the issue here is that the available evidence suggests that, as per the remarks by the Chief Exec of NHS Providers, the link between cases and hospitalisations has been broken - but ministers and SAGE don't want to hear this. So they've shifted the goalposts and started mithering about cases being too high, rather than the hospitals being overwhelmed. And when, in four weeks' time, cases are still going up and hospitalisations have probably crept up a little as a result, they'll then decide that we can't unlock until the third wave has peaked and the hospital total has started to come down (and there'll also be some rubbish, no doubt, about the desperate necessity of getting 18 year olds double jabbed,) so the restrictions will go on. If enough doom-laden models appear then we may even start falling backwards into lockdown.
It all looks so very, very bad - not the progress of the disease, which will break itself against the wall of the vaccinated, but the panic in Whitehall, which will end up breaking the country if the Government doesn't snap out of this before very much longer.
The number of passengers on London’s transport network has “accelerated” beyond expectations and is now at almost 60 per cent of pre-pandemic levels, it has emerged.
Tube ridership is about 40 per cent of normal, while the number using the buses has grown to 60-65 per cent of pre-covid levels.
Well, I'm hot, depressed and facing some very stressful weeks ahead, I'm so sick of this crap. If only the cricket would go better that at least take the edge of this utter crapfest.
But, really, fuck this 4 -week extension to lockdown or even longer. Fuck Sage. Fuck the stupid controlling useless government which has thrown away the advantages of the vaccination programme, has fucked around over closing the borders to travel from the Indian sub-continent and is now going to fuck with my Daughter's business and my son's jobs and mine even more than they have fucked them already. Fuck all the bossy advisors expecting us to stay away from those we love forever.
Fuck. Off. All of them.
🤬🤬🤬🤬
That is all.
Well, it's shorter than usual, but has a certain élan.
But, really, fuck this 4 -week extension to lockdown or even longer. Fuck Sage. Fuck the stupid controlling useless government which has thrown away the advantages of the vaccination programme, has fucked around over closing the borders to travel from the Indian sub-continent and is now going to fuck with my Daughter's business and my son's jobs and mine even more than they have fucked them already. Fuck all the bossy advisors expecting us to stay away from those we love forever.
It’s a difficult decision to make but hospitalisations and, significantly, ventilation beds in the NW are looking ominous. Hopefully things won’t be as bad this time round but a tough decision to make.
I said earlier today that the key figures wasn't cases, hospital occupancy or even admissions.
I said it was mechanical ventilation numbers.
And that I was fairly relaxed.
However I didn't realise the NW mechanical ventilation numbers were rising so fast. Still about half the speed of autumn so not pant shitting just yet but unequivocally cause for concern.
Boris should resign obviously.
That scale is extremely misleading, worthy of that Hames fellow from last year. It shows the current wave as a proportion of the previous wave, on a logarithmic scale. It should be on a linear scale becuase both series (wave 2 and wave 3) are exponential.
I think you are misreading it. 100% is the highest figure reached in January this year. Plotting it on a linear scale wouldn't change anything about how they looked in relation to each other.
The only reason they have chosen percentage over raw numbers is it means they don't have to have a number range for each chart.
I don't have a problem with it being a proportion, but an exponential figure being a proportion of another exponential figure already has that in built, the scale should then be linear.
It's the proportion of a single number, not of the exponential curve.
If that's what it's supposed to show then something is wrong with the data, because the current case number is not ~30% of the January peak.
The Jan peak for the North West (7 day average) was 6245 cases per day. Latest 7gday average figure is 1593 which is 26%
Thanks, I was stupidly looking at the national data. Haven't new cases in the North West plateaued now though?
But, really, fuck this 4 -week extension to lockdown or even longer. Fuck Sage. Fuck the stupid controlling useless government which has thrown away the advantages of the vaccination programme, has fucked around over closing the borders to travel from the Indian sub-continent and is now going to fuck with my Daughter's business and my son's jobs and mine even more than they have fucked them already. Fuck all the bossy advisors expecting us to stay away from those we love forever.
Fuck. Off. All of them.
🤬🤬🤬🤬
That is all.
And even when India was put on the red list flights STILL continued......
Adam Brooks @EssexPR · 2h Many businesses are back on full rent, but still at reduced capacities, their bounce back loan payments have now started. Many in Hospitality sold tickets to events after June 21st, many have stocked up and staffed for it.
The one thing that will torpedo this Government below the waterline is economic collapse.
We need huge numbers of businesses to go to the wall through this. Mass unemployment. The money markets to see that Britain's a turkey and stop lending Sunak the money.
National bankruptcy and a trip to the Gnomes of Zurich, holding out the begging bowl. It's the only way we're ever getting out of this.
Bring it on.
That's nuts. Even if you think a delay is overcautious, it doesn't mean there's no end in sight. We're are almost at herd immunity.
IT DOESN'T FUCKING WELL MATTER ANYMORE
They're not interested in "herd immunity". In their minds it doesn't even exist. They keep wibbling on about "the vaccines not offering 100% protection." They want Zero Covid. They want Zero Death.
No level of vaccination will ever be good enough. There'll always be an excuse for more restrictions. There'll always be an excuse for more delay.
Lockdown only ends with the destruction of this Government. And I can't see how that happens any other way but broad scale economic ruin.
Negative equity and 15% interest rates killed off John Major. We may need something worse to shift Johnson. Whatever it takes. We need to get rid of him.
You are sounding unhinged again. I will give you odds of 10/1 on their still being legal domestic restrictions by end of Sept.
Your £1 against my £10.
I know I do. And I really, REALLY hope I'm wrong. I'd love to be proven totally wrong. I'd delight in it. There would be an explosion of relief and joy from this general direction if the first delay also turns out to be the last.
But you do understand why I don't trust Boris Johnson - surely you must?
God yes. The bloke's an utter charlatan. If it worked for him politically he'd reimpose hard lockdown and keep it there for years. I just think you're misreading the situation. A short pause in the roadmap is one thing. A tortured and prolonged twilight to the pandemic is quite another. He won't be doing what you fear. It won't play out like that. I absolutely promise you and that's not something I do lightly. If you won't take my bet, take my promise.
It is obvious that his instincts are very strongly against lockdown, and that if he is forced into lockdown extensions it will be out of necessity. This site is collectively singing from a hymn sheet which says "Are we nearly there, daddy?" and then "But daddy, you PROMISED we were nearly there" and refuses to recognize the exigencies of life. The Tory Party did not invent the virus and has next to no control over how it behaves. Especially not once lockdown has been removed from its toolkit by pb fiat.
I kind of agree most of the way with that. What I'm not sure about is "necessity". I personally would like to see legal restrictions ended but with counsel to stay cautious depending on personal risk. I think there's some politics in the delay decision. Looking ultra careful (just for a short while and just for this last step) will play well for him, I think. It counteracts his mistakes in the other direction. But, yes, I do think there's also some rationale there. Risk mitigation against NHS pressure and not insignificant sickness and death from exploding cases. And, yes, I do think there are some on here losing the plot a bit.
It’s a difficult decision to make but hospitalisations and, significantly, ventilation beds in the NW are looking ominous. Hopefully things won’t be as bad this time round but a tough decision to make.
I said earlier today that the key figures wasn't cases, hospital occupancy or even admissions.
I said it was mechanical ventilation numbers.
And that I was fairly relaxed.
However I didn't realise the NW mechanical ventilation numbers were rising so fast. Still about half the speed of autumn so not pant shitting just yet but unequivocally cause for concern.
Boris should resign obviously.
That scale is extremely misleading, worthy of that Hames fellow from last year. It shows the current wave as a proportion of the previous wave, on a logarithmic scale. It should be on a linear scale becuase both series (wave 2 and wave 3) are exponential.
I think you are misreading it. 100% is the highest figure reached in January this year. Plotting it on a linear scale wouldn't change anything about how they looked in relation to each other.
The only reason they have chosen percentage over raw numbers is it means they don't have to have a number range for each chart.
I don't have a problem with it being a proportion, but an exponential figure being a proportion of another exponential figure already has that in built, the scale should then be linear.
It's the proportion of a single number, not of the exponential curve.
If that's what it's supposed to show then something is wrong with the data, because the current case number is not ~30% of the January peak.
The Jan peak for the North West (7 day average) was 6245 cases per day. Latest 7gday average figure is 1593 which is 26%
Thanks, I was stupidly looking at the national data. Haven't new cases in the North West plateaued now though?
Not really, hospitalisations have a bit but it's small numbers so difficult to get any sense of a pattern. Specific to Bolton it has peaked and the case rate is dropping pretty fast as the virus seems to have run out of viable hosts after running into walls of vaccinated people.
This took about 18 days to happen from trough to peak in a city with very low vaccinatin rates, relative to the rest of the country.
the insane decision to allow in 20,000 Indian travellers, for no good reason whatsoever
Other than them (in all likelihood) being British Citizens? Yes, they should have been hotel quarantined - but are you suggesting we do what Australia does and stop the return of citizens & residents?
The virus is filling in the niches. The most recent niche being dense pockets of unvaccinated people. The Indian variant may have worsened this somewhat because it is targeting close-knit ethnic groups - but those that caught it may have caught the original Covid (or another variant) anyway.
The Opposition today is trying to capitalise on the "visitors from India before the Red List" meme. This new varient would have got here anyway at some point. We can't hide. I think this largely a red-herring to be honest.
But the thing is, if the Opposition and the media hammer Johnson over this point - spurious though it may be - what effect will this have? It will make him even more cautious because the thing that has characterised the government response all through this is not wanting to be criticised. They have a massive majority but are frightened of their own shadow.
It’s a difficult decision to make but hospitalisations and, significantly, ventilation beds in the NW are looking ominous. Hopefully things won’t be as bad this time round but a tough decision to make.
I said earlier today that the key figures wasn't cases, hospital occupancy or even admissions.
I said it was mechanical ventilation numbers.
And that I was fairly relaxed.
However I didn't realise the NW mechanical ventilation numbers were rising so fast. Still about half the speed of autumn so not pant shitting just yet but unequivocally cause for concern.
Boris should resign obviously.
That scale is extremely misleading, worthy of that Hames fellow from last year. It shows the current wave as a proportion of the previous wave, on a logarithmic scale. It should be on a linear scale becuase both series (wave 2 and wave 3) are exponential.
I think you are misreading it. 100% is the highest figure reached in January this year. Plotting it on a linear scale wouldn't change anything about how they looked in relation to each other.
The only reason they have chosen percentage over raw numbers is it means they don't have to have a number range for each chart.
I don't have a problem with it being a proportion, but an exponential figure being a proportion of another exponential figure already has that in built, the scale should then be linear.
It's the proportion of a single number, not of the exponential curve.
If that's what it's supposed to show then something is wrong with the data, because the current case number is not ~30% of the January peak.
The Jan peak for the North West (7 day average) was 6245 cases per day. Latest 7gday average figure is 1593 which is 26%
Thanks, I was stupidly looking at the national data. Haven't new cases in the North West plateaued now though?
Adam Brooks @EssexPR · 2h Many businesses are back on full rent, but still at reduced capacities, their bounce back loan payments have now started. Many in Hospitality sold tickets to events after June 21st, many have stocked up and staffed for it.
The one thing that will torpedo this Government below the waterline is economic collapse.
We need huge numbers of businesses to go to the wall through this. Mass unemployment. The money markets to see that Britain's a turkey and stop lending Sunak the money.
National bankruptcy and a trip to the Gnomes of Zurich, holding out the begging bowl. It's the only way we're ever getting out of this.
Bring it on.
That's nuts. Even if you think a delay is overcautious, it doesn't mean there's no end in sight. We're are almost at herd immunity.
IT DOESN'T FUCKING WELL MATTER ANYMORE
They're not interested in "herd immunity". In their minds it doesn't even exist. They keep wibbling on about "the vaccines not offering 100% protection." They want Zero Covid. They want Zero Death.
No level of vaccination will ever be good enough. There'll always be an excuse for more restrictions. There'll always be an excuse for more delay.
Lockdown only ends with the destruction of this Government. And I can't see how that happens any other way but broad scale economic ruin.
Negative equity and 15% interest rates killed off John Major. We may need something worse to shift Johnson. Whatever it takes. We need to get rid of him.
You are sounding unhinged again. I will give you odds of 10/1 on their still being legal domestic restrictions by end of Sept.
Your £1 against my £10.
I know I do. And I really, REALLY hope I'm wrong. I'd love to be proven totally wrong. I'd delight in it. There would be an explosion of relief and joy from this general direction if the first delay also turns out to be the last.
But you do understand why I don't trust Boris Johnson - surely you must?
God yes. The bloke's an utter charlatan. If it worked for him politically he'd reimpose hard lockdown and keep it there for years. I just think you're misreading the situation. A short pause in the roadmap is one thing. A tortured and prolonged twilight to the pandemic is quite another. He won't be doing what you fear. It won't play out like that. I absolutely promise you and that's not something I do lightly. If you won't take my bet, take my promise.
Dude, you made sworn vows that Boris would NEVER delay unlockdown. It was your THING. Your USP. You nailed your colours to it. Absolute guarantee!
And it turns out you were wholly and totally wrong. I fear this rather devalues everything else you ever say
Correct leon kinabalu has his head in the sand and is just rationalizing now
Absolute nonsense. My analysis of this has been close to impeccable and I expect this to continue.
I'm trying to stay calm in the face of these rumours - truth is it's not entirely Johnson - he's listening to the public who are information-light and a good proportion of the lumpen, truth be told, are enjoying all this, at least in a wallowing-in-the-misery, blitz-spirit sense. And, importantly, are relishing the clipping of wings of those who actually had good lives before all this.
What concerns me most this evening is this: What happens after the rumoured 4 week delay?
Go forward 4 weeks and let's say infections are slightly up again, hospitalisations slightly up and maybe the same for deaths. The figures will be tiny in proportion to the national population and not comparable to the situation we were in in the past. And an even greater proportion of new infections are numbers only with few actually getting ill or exhibiting any symptoms at all. And a good proportion of those that do become ill are unvaccinated by their own agency.
So, in the light of the above, here's the questions: if the government don't remove legal restrictions on 21 June why would they in 4 weeks' time?
The vaccines are our only silver bullet. There isn't another. This government are incapable of telling us that we have to live with Covid to some degree.
They won't. We'll be suffering like this for so long as Johnson remains in office.
The number of passengers on London’s transport network has “accelerated” beyond expectations and is now at almost 60 per cent of pre-pandemic levels, it has emerged.
Tube ridership is about 40 per cent of normal, while the number using the buses has grown to 60-65 per cent of pre-covid levels.
Which, given the vaccine stats reported in The Times today, which were positively French (49% first dose, 29% second dose, albeit only to June 1) is ominous.
the insane decision to allow in 20,000 Indian travellers, for no good reason whatsoever
Other than them (in all likelihood) being British Citizens? Yes, they should have been hotel quarantined - but are you suggesting we do what Australia does and stop the return of citizens & residents?
Hotel quarantine cuts down the numbers heading out substantially.
the insane decision to allow in 20,000 Indian travellers, for no good reason whatsoever
Other than them (in all likelihood) being British Citizens? Yes, they should have been hotel quarantined - but are you suggesting we do what Australia does and stop the return of citizens & residents?
The number of passengers on London’s transport network has “accelerated” beyond expectations and is now at almost 60 per cent of pre-pandemic levels, it has emerged.
Tube ridership is about 40 per cent of normal, while the number using the buses has grown to 60-65 per cent of pre-covid levels.
Which, given the vaccine stats reported in The Times today, which were positively French (49% first dose, 29% second dose, albeit only to June 1) is ominous.
Idiot vaccine refusers being given a dose of reality.
But, really, fuck this 4 -week extension to lockdown or even longer. Fuck Sage. Fuck the stupid controlling useless government which has thrown away the advantages of the vaccination programme, has fucked around over closing the borders to travel from the Indian sub-continent and is now going to fuck with my Daughter's business and my son's jobs and mine even more than they have fucked them already. Fuck all the bossy advisors expecting us to stay away from those we love forever.
I take it there is no suggestion of tightening restrictions? Just keeping the ones we have? In which case businesses turning a profit should be able to continue to do so. What we don't know is how many actually are right now.
One thing that's worth remembering is that people do not respond only to formal legal restrictions. They make choices themselves. So if Johnson scares the bejesus out of the country by delaying June 21st due to the Delta variant, then it's possible that places that are making a profit now will stop making a profit.
Well indeed. However, some folk are hyper sensitive to case numbers. And will adjust their behaviour as a result. So that may happen regardless.
Yes. Which is why, if you make the judgement that the vaccines still work against the Delta variant, then now is the time for a leader to make a critical difference and reduce the sensitivity of people to case numbers. A rallying call to the country to hold its nerve and trust in the science of the vaccines.
Adam Brooks @EssexPR · 2h Many businesses are back on full rent, but still at reduced capacities, their bounce back loan payments have now started. Many in Hospitality sold tickets to events after June 21st, many have stocked up and staffed for it.
The one thing that will torpedo this Government below the waterline is economic collapse.
We need huge numbers of businesses to go to the wall through this. Mass unemployment. The money markets to see that Britain's a turkey and stop lending Sunak the money.
National bankruptcy and a trip to the Gnomes of Zurich, holding out the begging bowl. It's the only way we're ever getting out of this.
Bring it on.
That's nuts. Even if you think a delay is overcautious, it doesn't mean there's no end in sight. We're are almost at herd immunity.
IT DOESN'T FUCKING WELL MATTER ANYMORE
They're not interested in "herd immunity". In their minds it doesn't even exist. They keep wibbling on about "the vaccines not offering 100% protection." They want Zero Covid. They want Zero Death.
No level of vaccination will ever be good enough. There'll always be an excuse for more restrictions. There'll always be an excuse for more delay.
Lockdown only ends with the destruction of this Government. And I can't see how that happens any other way but broad scale economic ruin.
Negative equity and 15% interest rates killed off John Major. We may need something worse to shift Johnson. Whatever it takes. We need to get rid of him.
You are sounding unhinged again. I will give you odds of 10/1 on their still being legal domestic restrictions by end of Sept.
Your £1 against my £10.
I know I do. And I really, REALLY hope I'm wrong. I'd love to be proven totally wrong. I'd delight in it. There would be an explosion of relief and joy from this general direction if the first delay also turns out to be the last.
But you do understand why I don't trust Boris Johnson - surely you must?
God yes. The bloke's an utter charlatan. If it worked for him politically he'd reimpose hard lockdown and keep it there for years. I just think you're misreading the situation. A short pause in the roadmap is one thing. A tortured and prolonged twilight to the pandemic is quite another. He won't be doing what you fear. It won't play out like that. I absolutely promise you and that's not something I do lightly. If you won't take my bet, take my promise.
Dude, you made sworn vows that Boris would NEVER delay unlockdown. It was your THING. Your USP. You nailed your colours to it. Absolute guarantee!
And it turns out you were wholly and totally wrong. I fear this rather devalues everything else you ever say
Even when I'm just a smidgen wrong there are few righter.
(i) Short delay then over? (Me and the rationals)
(ii) Or "government by scientists" and keeping restrictions forever (You and the paranoics).
The number of passengers on London’s transport network has “accelerated” beyond expectations and is now at almost 60 per cent of pre-pandemic levels, it has emerged.
Tube ridership is about 40 per cent of normal, while the number using the buses has grown to 60-65 per cent of pre-covid levels.
I'm trying to stay calm in the face of these rumours - truth is it's not entirely Johnson - he's listening to the public who are information-light and a good proportion of the lumpen, truth be told, are enjoying all this, at least in a wallowing-in-the-misery, blitz-spirit sense. And, importantly, are relishing the clipping of wings of those who actually had good lives before all this.
What concerns me most this evening is this: What happens after the rumoured 4 week delay?
Go forward 4 weeks and let's say infections are slightly up again, hospitalisations slightly up and maybe the same for deaths. The figures will be tiny in proportion to the national population and not comparable to the situation we were in in the past. And an even greater proportion of new infections are numbers only with few actually getting ill or exhibiting any symptoms at all. And a good proportion of those that do become ill are unvaccinated by their own agency.
So, in the light of the above, here's the questions: if the government don't remove legal restrictions on 21 June why would they in 4 weeks' time?
The vaccines are our only silver bullet. There isn't another. This government are incapable of telling us that we have to live with Covid to some degree.
They won't. We'll be suffering like this for so long as Johnson remains in office.
Perhaps, but would it be any different if Starmer were in office? The LP has cheer-led state sanctions most of all the parties (as would be expected given they value liberty less anyway). It has come to something when the best bulwark against this government's authoritarian measures is its own backbenchers.
the insane decision to allow in 20,000 Indian travellers, for no good reason whatsoever
Other than them (in all likelihood) being British Citizens? Yes, they should have been hotel quarantined - but are you suggesting we do what Australia does and stop the return of citizens & residents?
The priority had to be to stop the spread of the virus from India to the UK.
You know, probably the most annoying thing about this site is arseholes on both sides of the political divide who speak about the serious administrative business of Government like it’s trivial or easy. Those who think their amateur analysis of the figures they have on Covid is better than that of the Government after the experience of the last year.
You might be a lawyer, or a programmer, or an engineer, but you have no idea. You don’t operate in that level of ambiguity and you should be thankful the decision is not on your shoulders. If it was, most of you who are so dogmatic on here would crumble to the floor in tears.
Government is about nuance, and it’s not easy. I am dubious of an extension but still, as throughout this crisis, on balance I trust in the Government’s experts. No one else is better placed. No one. Certainly no one on here.
Well, I did tell y'all that vaccine passports would be the least of the three evils...
I am double vaccinated. Maximum protection. My last jab was 15 days ago
Why the fuck should I continue to put my life on hold? After 16 loooong months?
I've done my duty, I've stayed at home (often alone, to detriment of my mental health), I've had my jabs, I've been careful and sensible.
That's it. I'm done. I now have a small but not microscopic risk of catching this wretched bug and dying. Just as I have a risk of dying in a car, airplane or ski lift. I will take that risk and resume my life and I will break the law if they try and stop me.
Adam Brooks @EssexPR · 2h Many businesses are back on full rent, but still at reduced capacities, their bounce back loan payments have now started. Many in Hospitality sold tickets to events after June 21st, many have stocked up and staffed for it.
The one thing that will torpedo this Government below the waterline is economic collapse.
We need huge numbers of businesses to go to the wall through this. Mass unemployment. The money markets to see that Britain's a turkey and stop lending Sunak the money.
National bankruptcy and a trip to the Gnomes of Zurich, holding out the begging bowl. It's the only way we're ever getting out of this.
Bring it on.
That's nuts. Even if you think a delay is overcautious, it doesn't mean there's no end in sight. We're are almost at herd immunity.
IT DOESN'T FUCKING WELL MATTER ANYMORE
They're not interested in "herd immunity". In their minds it doesn't even exist. They keep wibbling on about "the vaccines not offering 100% protection." They want Zero Covid. They want Zero Death.
No level of vaccination will ever be good enough. There'll always be an excuse for more restrictions. There'll always be an excuse for more delay.
Lockdown only ends with the destruction of this Government. And I can't see how that happens any other way but broad scale economic ruin.
Negative equity and 15% interest rates killed off John Major. We may need something worse to shift Johnson. Whatever it takes. We need to get rid of him.
You are sounding unhinged again. I will give you odds of 10/1 on their still being legal domestic restrictions by end of Sept.
Your £1 against my £10.
I know I do. And I really, REALLY hope I'm wrong. I'd love to be proven totally wrong. I'd delight in it. There would be an explosion of relief and joy from this general direction if the first delay also turns out to be the last.
But you do understand why I don't trust Boris Johnson - surely you must?
God yes. The bloke's an utter charlatan. If it worked for him politically he'd reimpose hard lockdown and keep it there for years. I just think you're misreading the situation. A short pause in the roadmap is one thing. A tortured and prolonged twilight to the pandemic is quite another. He won't be doing what you fear. It won't play out like that. I absolutely promise you and that's not something I do lightly. If you won't take my bet, take my promise.
Dude, you made sworn vows that Boris would NEVER delay unlockdown. It was your THING. Your USP. You nailed your colours to it. Absolute guarantee!
And it turns out you were wholly and totally wrong. I fear this rather devalues everything else you ever say
Even when I'm just a smidgen wrong there are few righter.
(i) Short delay then over? (Me and the rationals)
(ii) Or "government by scientists" and keeping restrictions forever (You and the paranoics).
Let's see.
Somewhere between both of those looks more realistic, to be honest.
I've written to my MP- Mike Freer urging him to remove Boris if he delays freedom Day. If you have a Tory MP I hope you do the same. Obviously no chance of it changing anything but our voices need to be heard.
I am very angry... This is a disgraceful Prime minister
You know, probably the most annoying thing about this site is arseholes on both sides of the political divide who speak about the serious administrative business of Government like it’s trivial or easy. Those who think their amateur analysis of the figures they have on Covid is better than that of the Government after the experience of the last year.
You might be a lawyer, or a programmer, or an engineer, but you have no idea. You don’t operate in that level of ambiguity and you should be thankful the decision is not on your shoulders. If it was, most of you who are so dogmatic on here would crumble to the floor in tears.
Government is about nuance, and it’s not easy. I am dubious of an extension but still, as throughout this crisis, on balance I trust in the Government’s experts. No one else is better placed. No one. Certainly no one on here.
I take it there is no suggestion of tightening restrictions? Just keeping the ones we have? In which case businesses turning a profit should be able to continue to do so. What we don't know is how many actually are right now.
One thing that's worth remembering is that people do not respond only to formal legal restrictions. They make choices themselves. So if Johnson scares the bejesus out of the country by delaying June 21st due to the Delta variant, then it's possible that places that are making a profit now will stop making a profit.
Well indeed. However, some folk are hyper sensitive to case numbers. And will adjust their behaviour as a result. So that may happen regardless.
Yes. Which is why, if you make the judgement that the vaccines still work against the Delta variant, then now is the time for a leader to make a critical difference and reduce the sensitivity of people to case numbers. A rallying call to the country to hold its nerve and trust in the science of the vaccines.
No. That time was a month ago. No government spokesperson has said that AFAIAA. It ought to have been repeated so often that by now we are sick to death of hearing it.
You know, probably the most annoying thing about this site is arseholes on both sides of the political divide who speak about the serious administrative business of Government like it’s trivial or easy. Those who think their amateur analysis of the figures they have on Covid is better than that of the Government after the experience of the last year.
You might be a lawyer, or a programmer, or an engineer, but you have no idea. You don’t operate in that level of ambiguity and you should be thankful the decision is not on your shoulders. If it was, most of you who are so dogmatic on here would crumble to the floor in tears.
Government is about nuance, and it’s not easy. I am dubious of an extension but still, as throughout this crisis, on balance I trust in the Government’s experts. No one else is better placed. No one. Certainly no one on here.
Well, I did tell y'all that vaccine passports would be the least of the three evils...
I am double vaccinated. Maximum protection. My last jab was 15 days ago
Why the fuck should I continue to put my life on hold? After 16 loooong months?
I've done my duty, I've stayed at home (often alone, to detriment of my mental health), I've had my jabs, I've been careful and sensible.
That's it. I'm done. I now have a small but not microscopic risk of catching this wretched bug and dying. Just as I have a risk of dying in a car, airplane or ski lift. I will take that risk and resume my life and I will break the law if they try and stop me.
Welcome to what under 40s have been going through for the last year and a bit for the old c***s who still want to keep everyone locked up. This has been what I've felt for longer than a year.
This is a dire backdrop for Boris at the G7 tomorrow
Even as the sun finally shines on St Ives, he presides over half a nation waking up to his fucking stupidity, and a continued or even worsened lockdown, just because he made the insane decision to allow in 20,000 Indian travellers, for no good reason whatsoever, when everyone else said NO, STOP
Meanwhile, he will be surrounded by smiling G7 leaders who don't have this problem, because they didn't make this fucking crazy decision
Tricky
Anyone who wants to predict what happens next is a fool. There is a slim chance we are closing on the peak of this wave already (see Bolton and the slight decrease in the national weekly rate of growth from 63% to 58% in the last couple of days) so things could improve very very quickly. Or there could be an increasing number of people on ventilation over the next month pushing us back to Stage 2 or Stage 1.
Remember the South African variant? I’d quite like to be in SA right now.
What the papers is saying is just rumour, let’s wait and see. Papers all think it’s kicking the ball four weeks into the future, and not even larger Weddings allowed? I don’t believe that at all to be honest because it will be illogical with what is currently open. Like partying and getting drunk together at sporting venues.
If they do pick up the whole freedom day and place it one month ahead, I predict the government will have to close up even more than we are now. Surely no you can’t have guests at your wedding, but yes you can party and get drunk together at a cricket ground doesn’t add up? Any government apologist what to disagree and say the logic does add up and this wouldn’t be a mess?
You know, probably the most annoying thing about this site is arseholes on both sides of the political divide who speak about the serious administrative business of Government like it’s trivial or easy. Those who think their amateur analysis of the figures they have on Covid is better than that of the Government after the experience of the last year.
You might be a lawyer, or a programmer, or an engineer, but you have no idea. You don’t operate in that level of ambiguity and you should be thankful the decision is not on your shoulders. If it was, most of you who are so dogmatic on here would crumble to the floor in tears.
Government is about nuance, and it’s not easy. I am dubious of an extension but still, as throughout this crisis, on balance I trust in the Government’s experts. No one else is better placed. No one. Certainly no one on here.
There is no nuance to CLOSE THE FUCKING BORDERS WITH INDIA WHEN THERE ARE SO MANY CORPSES PILING UP IN NEW DELHI THEY CAN'T BURN THEM ALL
It's fairly basic governance. It's closing the gate in the city walls when the dragon is just outside. They knew this shit in about 2000BC
Somehow this "nuance" evaded our dear prime minister and his aides
You know, probably the most annoying thing about this site is arseholes on both sides of the political divide who speak about the serious administrative business of Government like it’s trivial or easy. Those who think their amateur analysis of the figures they have on Covid is better than that of the Government after the experience of the last year.
You might be a lawyer, or a programmer, or an engineer, but you have no idea. You don’t operate in that level of ambiguity and you should be thankful the decision is not on your shoulders. If it was, most of you who are so dogmatic on here would crumble to the floor in tears.
Government is about nuance, and it’s not easy. I am dubious of an extension but still, as throughout this crisis, on balance I trust in the Government’s experts. No one else is better placed. No one. Certainly no one on here.
No it's not trivial or easy. That part is right. But that cannot and shouldn't prevent people from putting forth a view as they see it, however misguided it wrong, since take it logically and no one should ever question anything, because we do not and cannot know what it's like.
When its people who hold such power over us better to risk Ill informed comment than keep schtum because others likely do know best.
Better that we flail about somewhat than just delegate even our own ability to form opinions on the basis others know better.
That's taking a reasonable point - things are complicated, they have more info and are doing their best - to the point of unreasonableness.
Adam Brooks @EssexPR · 2h Many businesses are back on full rent, but still at reduced capacities, their bounce back loan payments have now started. Many in Hospitality sold tickets to events after June 21st, many have stocked up and staffed for it.
The one thing that will torpedo this Government below the waterline is economic collapse.
We need huge numbers of businesses to go to the wall through this. Mass unemployment. The money markets to see that Britain's a turkey and stop lending Sunak the money.
National bankruptcy and a trip to the Gnomes of Zurich, holding out the begging bowl. It's the only way we're ever getting out of this.
Bring it on.
That's nuts. Even if you think a delay is overcautious, it doesn't mean there's no end in sight. We're are almost at herd immunity.
IT DOESN'T FUCKING WELL MATTER ANYMORE
They're not interested in "herd immunity". In their minds it doesn't even exist. They keep wibbling on about "the vaccines not offering 100% protection." They want Zero Covid. They want Zero Death.
No level of vaccination will ever be good enough. There'll always be an excuse for more restrictions. There'll always be an excuse for more delay.
Lockdown only ends with the destruction of this Government. And I can't see how that happens any other way but broad scale economic ruin.
Negative equity and 15% interest rates killed off John Major. We may need something worse to shift Johnson. Whatever it takes. We need to get rid of him.
You are sounding unhinged again. I will give you odds of 10/1 on their still being legal domestic restrictions by end of Sept.
Your £1 against my £10.
I know I do. And I really, REALLY hope I'm wrong. I'd love to be proven totally wrong. I'd delight in it. There would be an explosion of relief and joy from this general direction if the first delay also turns out to be the last.
But you do understand why I don't trust Boris Johnson - surely you must?
God yes. The bloke's an utter charlatan. If it worked for him politically he'd reimpose hard lockdown and keep it there for years. I just think you're misreading the situation. A short pause in the roadmap is one thing. A tortured and prolonged twilight to the pandemic is quite another. He won't be doing what you fear. It won't play out like that. I absolutely promise you and that's not something I do lightly. If you won't take my bet, take my promise.
Dude, you made sworn vows that Boris would NEVER delay unlockdown. It was your THING. Your USP. You nailed your colours to it. Absolute guarantee!
And it turns out you were wholly and totally wrong. I fear this rather devalues everything else you ever say
Even when I'm just a smidgen wrong there are few righter.
(i) Short delay then over? (Me and the rationals)
(ii) Or "government by scientists" and keeping restrictions forever (You and the paranoics).
Let's see.
lol
But, really, very poor judgement on this. We tried to warn you. Why listen to you again?
One of the BBC News paper reviewers just said the expected relaxing of rules for weddings may not go ahead either.
Seems like the optimum strategy may be to get hitched at Wimbledon.
Or at the cricket. It’s the hottest party in town the next blast match. It’s a huge restriction busting loophole where you can go experience a non Covid world in all its glory. Westworld without the gunslingers.
One of the BBC News paper reviewers just said the expected relaxing of rules for weddings may not go ahead either.
Seems like the optimum strategy may be to get hitched at Wimbledon.
Or at the cricket. It’s the hottest party in town the next blast match. It’s a huge restriction busting loophole where you can go experience a non Covid world in all its glory. Westworld without the gunslingers.
At this rate, even The Hundred might be popular....
You know, probably the most annoying thing about this site is arseholes on both sides of the political divide who speak about the serious administrative business of Government like it’s trivial or easy. Those who think their amateur analysis of the figures they have on Covid is better than that of the Government after the experience of the last year.
You might be a lawyer, or a programmer, or an engineer, but you have no idea. You don’t operate in that level of ambiguity and you should be thankful the decision is not on your shoulders. If it was, most of you who are so dogmatic on here would crumble to the floor in tears.
Government is about nuance, and it’s not easy. I am dubious of an extension but still, as throughout this crisis, on balance I trust in the Government’s experts. No one else is better placed. No one. Certainly no one on here.
An excellent post
It is all so easy to shout from the sidelines
You trust in the govts experts. You are painfully nieve my friend or else need help
It’s a difficult decision to make but hospitalisations and, significantly, ventilation beds in the NW are looking ominous. Hopefully things won’t be as bad this time round but a tough decision to make.
FPT Oh really? 🤔
There was over 4k in hospital in the Northwest in the peak, there's currently 271.
There were hundreds in hospital in Warrington in the peak, there's currently 3. Not 300, 3. Liverpool University Hospitals had over 500 in the peak, there's currently 9. Wirral University Teaching Hospital had nearly 300 in the peak, there's currently 3.
Single digits in hospital Trusts when it was hundreds in hospital most of the pandemic is not awful.
I think the trajectories are more important than the instantaneous values. You cannot deny that they are on the rise. All except deaths, thankfully.
I couldn't give the hairy crack of a rats arse that they're on the rise from virtually zero. Warrington's gone from 1 to 3 - big whoop! Big frigging deal!
Its not going to go from 3 to 300 because the vulnerable have been double-vaccinated already!
Trend lines all say different.
"Trend lines"
Riddle me this, how is it going to trend forever upwards when 80% of the adult population have antibodies already and virtually 100% of JCVI Groups 1-9 have had two jabs from a 99% effective vaccine?
I think the fraction above 50 that have been vaccinated is quite a bit off 100%, unfortunately.
Because we've not gotten around to vaccinating them yet despite them wanting it?
Or because they've rejected it? In which case screw them, they made their choice.
I'm just saying your claim that "virtually 100% of JCVI Groups 1-9 have had two jabs" is wrong.
There's a reason that virtually was there as opposed to literally.
It wasn't wrong. Anyone who refused the vaccine: fuck them.
Virtually implies something like >99%. It's probably closer to 90%, leaving a significant number vulnerable.
90% is virtually. It means that those which can be done, have been done.
Those that haven't got the dose - they've made their own choice. Waiting four weeks won't magically mean they're suddenly done, since they're not getting done of their own choice. So waiting four weeks doesn't achieve anything at all.
You know, probably the most annoying thing about this site is arseholes on both sides of the political divide who speak about the serious administrative business of Government like it’s trivial or easy. Those who think their amateur analysis of the figures they have on Covid is better than that of the Government after the experience of the last year.
You might be a lawyer, or a programmer, or an engineer, but you have no idea. You don’t operate in that level of ambiguity and you should be thankful the decision is not on your shoulders. If it was, most of you who are so dogmatic on here would crumble to the floor in tears.
Government is about nuance, and it’s not easy. I am dubious of an extension but still, as throughout this crisis, on balance I trust in the Government’s experts. No one else is better placed. No one. Certainly no one on here.
An excellent post
It is all so easy to shout from the sidelines
It's not the nuanced decision they are making now that matter - of course that is complex. It is the reason they are forced to make this decision. Which is: THEY DIDN'T SHUT THE FUCKING BORDERS
I am sorry to shout at you. but this is a clear and simple truth, which, it seems, needs emphasis before it sinks in
We have a widely seeded Delta/Indian variant because Boris wanted a trade deal with India. And can we then ask ourselves why he wanted a trade deal with India, why we are looking for new trade deals?
The government has had a lax policy on international travel throughout, but it has been driven by scientific advice. The idea that this had anything to do with desperation for trade deals isn't credible.
Nonsense. They put the surrounding countries on the red list! It was clearly because Johnson wanted to go to India.
I find that hard to believe
I loathe this government's errors as much as anyone. I have been lustily crying CLOSE THE FUCKING BORDERS for more than a year
But can they really have kept the Indian border open and risked the entire economy of the nation, in the face of an obviously dangerous new variant from India, just to maintain the chance of a trade deal photo-op for Boris?
Really??
On the other hand, I am bereft of other explanations. TSE has plausibly argued that they closed the frontier with Pakistan and Bangla, even as they kept flights to Indian going, so it wasn't some "fear of being called racist"
Then, what was it?
Maybe it's just that the people who run the country are not as intelligent as we assume they are.
But this isn't just unintelligent. It is catastrophically, thunderously stupid. It is IQ of 47 stuff. It is retarded. It is enough. The government should fall
I agree. A pity the opposition is useless and unelectable.
I take it there is no suggestion of tightening restrictions? Just keeping the ones we have? In which case businesses turning a profit should be able to continue to do so. What we don't know is how many actually are right now.
One thing that's worth remembering is that people do not respond only to formal legal restrictions. They make choices themselves. So if Johnson scares the bejesus out of the country by delaying June 21st due to the Delta variant, then it's possible that places that are making a profit now will stop making a profit.
Well indeed. However, some folk are hyper sensitive to case numbers. And will adjust their behaviour as a result. So that may happen regardless.
Yes. Which is why, if you make the judgement that the vaccines still work against the Delta variant, then now is the time for a leader to make a critical difference and reduce the sensitivity of people to case numbers. A rallying call to the country to hold its nerve and trust in the science of the vaccines.
No. That time was a month ago. No government spokesperson has said that AFAIAA. It ought to have been repeated so often that by now we are sick to death of hearing it.
The point has been made a few times by various ministers, but perhaps not as forcefully or clearly as it should have been. I distinctly recall Hancock making a point in the Commons about how few of the patients hospitalised for Covid in Bolton had been double-dosed.
You know, probably the most annoying thing about this site is arseholes on both sides of the political divide who speak about the serious administrative business of Government like it’s trivial or easy. Those who think their amateur analysis of the figures they have on Covid is better than that of the Government after the experience of the last year.
You might be a lawyer, or a programmer, or an engineer, but you have no idea. You don’t operate in that level of ambiguity and you should be thankful the decision is not on your shoulders. If it was, most of you who are so dogmatic on here would crumble to the floor in tears.
Government is about nuance, and it’s not easy. I am dubious of an extension but still, as throughout this crisis, on balance I trust in the Government’s experts. No one else is better placed. No one. Certainly no one on here.
An excellent post
It is all so easy to shout from the sidelines
You trust in the govts experts. You are painfully nieve my friend or else need help
I am neither naive nor need help
I do not trust the siren voices for zero covid but Whitty and Vallance, who have been silent, will be the ones to watch on Monday
But, really, fuck this 4 -week extension to lockdown or even longer. Fuck Sage. Fuck the stupid controlling useless government which has thrown away the advantages of the vaccination programme, has fucked around over closing the borders to travel from the Indian sub-continent and is now going to fuck with my Daughter's business and my son's jobs and mine even more than they have fucked them already. Fuck all the bossy advisors expecting us to stay away from those we love forever.
Fuck. Off. All of them.
🤬🤬🤬🤬
That is all.
And even when India was put on the red list flights STILL continued......
But it can’t be stopped. They can just touch down in a green country and slip in.
Adam Brooks @EssexPR · 2h Many businesses are back on full rent, but still at reduced capacities, their bounce back loan payments have now started. Many in Hospitality sold tickets to events after June 21st, many have stocked up and staffed for it.
The one thing that will torpedo this Government below the waterline is economic collapse.
We need huge numbers of businesses to go to the wall through this. Mass unemployment. The money markets to see that Britain's a turkey and stop lending Sunak the money.
National bankruptcy and a trip to the Gnomes of Zurich, holding out the begging bowl. It's the only way we're ever getting out of this.
Bring it on.
That's nuts. Even if you think a delay is overcautious, it doesn't mean there's no end in sight. We're are almost at herd immunity.
IT DOESN'T FUCKING WELL MATTER ANYMORE
They're not interested in "herd immunity". In their minds it doesn't even exist. They keep wibbling on about "the vaccines not offering 100% protection." They want Zero Covid. They want Zero Death.
No level of vaccination will ever be good enough. There'll always be an excuse for more restrictions. There'll always be an excuse for more delay.
Lockdown only ends with the destruction of this Government. And I can't see how that happens any other way but broad scale economic ruin.
Negative equity and 15% interest rates killed off John Major. We may need something worse to shift Johnson. Whatever it takes. We need to get rid of him.
You are sounding unhinged again. I will give you odds of 10/1 on their still being legal domestic restrictions by end of Sept.
Your £1 against my £10.
I know I do. And I really, REALLY hope I'm wrong. I'd love to be proven totally wrong. I'd delight in it. There would be an explosion of relief and joy from this general direction if the first delay also turns out to be the last.
But you do understand why I don't trust Boris Johnson - surely you must?
God yes. The bloke's an utter charlatan. If it worked for him politically he'd reimpose hard lockdown and keep it there for years. I just think you're misreading the situation. A short pause in the roadmap is one thing. A tortured and prolonged twilight to the pandemic is quite another. He won't be doing what you fear. It won't play out like that. I absolutely promise you and that's not something I do lightly. If you won't take my bet, take my promise.
Dude, you made sworn vows that Boris would NEVER delay unlockdown. It was your THING. Your USP. You nailed your colours to it. Absolute guarantee!
And it turns out you were wholly and totally wrong. I fear this rather devalues everything else you ever say
Even when I'm just a smidgen wrong there are few righter.
(i) Short delay then over? (Me and the rationals)
(ii) Or "government by scientists" and keeping restrictions forever (You and the paranoics).
Let's see.
Kinabalu doesn't want to admit hes been played by a master conman
You know, probably the most annoying thing about this site is arseholes on both sides of the political divide who speak about the serious administrative business of Government like it’s trivial or easy. Those who think their amateur analysis of the figures they have on Covid is better than that of the Government after the experience of the last year.
You might be a lawyer, or a programmer, or an engineer, but you have no idea. You don’t operate in that level of ambiguity and you should be thankful the decision is not on your shoulders. If it was, most of you who are so dogmatic on here would crumble to the floor in tears.
Government is about nuance, and it’s not easy. I am dubious of an extension but still, as throughout this crisis, on balance I trust in the Government’s experts. No one else is better placed. No one. Certainly no one on here.
The problem is, you start travelling down the road of "the experts (whoever they are, and they certainly do not all agree about the seriousness of Delta) must be right" and you abandon the discretion to question anything. You become a passive observer who just has this misery inflicted upon them and doesn't bother to think for themselves.
I mean, to be honest, given our complete and utter powerlessness to do anything about any of this, perhaps it would be best to do that? But, for my sins, I can't help caring.
Now, is it really taking things too far for us to question why it is the Government is making these decisions, and whether or not they might - just might - be wrong? At a minimum, we know that the models that they are supplied with have given wildly differing projections in the past and have frequently proven to be wide of the mark. We also know that the medical establishment committed a number of errors and u-turns during the pandemic, for example the flip-flopping on the efficacy of masks, and there is at least a debate to be had on why they were so insistent that there was no point in closing the borders last year.
Beyond that, if we make a reasoned judgment that the next wave of Covid is unlikely to cause a hospital incinerating calamity, then we quickly move on to the philosophical argument about how much death and suffering from Covid we should be willing to tolerate, in order to compensate for the immense damage caused by restrictions.
However, if you just want to accept everything that you're spoon fed by ministers and officials in Whitehall without question, then be my guest.
I take it everyone venting here tonight will be swearing off a Tory vote while the PM is in power? Nope. Thought not. Therefore he will remain. Ultimately, then, who is responsible? Yes, but Corbyn, flags, statue, boring, Brexit, Lib Dems, woke, trans, Greens, Count Binface, housing, taxes, wibble, take a knee, wibble, wibble.
Well at least we have ended the PB debate on Boris Johnson.
Are there any PB Uber-Tories still willing to defend the man? HYUFD, perhaps?
I reckon we're probably running at about 90% thoroughly sick of the pandemic and thoroughly sick of him along with it.
Problem is, at the rate things are going we're likely to be stuck with both of them for the rest of the decade.
I think HYUFD is too good a Tory to do that. He's never given the impression of totally buying into the Cult of Boris; in fact I can imagine HYUFD being an excellent Man In A Grey Suit when the time comes. (I really really mean this as a compliment.)
There is the problem that, since the purges of 2019, there isn't much of an alternative Cabinet to lead a post-Boris Conservative Party. The current crop are there because they attached themselves to Boris, most of them will have to go when he goes.
The other thing that saves Boris for now is probably the split between "we can't unlock because of Boris's Indian Indecision" and "we should unlock but Boris is afraid of the boffins". The two groups will be hitting different targets, so the battering will probably fail to sink the blonde buffoon again.
But he's not up to the job of being Prime Minister, is he?
It’s a difficult decision to make but hospitalisations and, significantly, ventilation beds in the NW are looking ominous. Hopefully things won’t be as bad this time round but a tough decision to make.
I said earlier today that the key figures wasn't cases, hospital occupancy or even admissions.
I said it was mechanical ventilation numbers.
And that I was fairly relaxed.
However I didn't realise the NW mechanical ventilation numbers were rising so fast. Still about half the speed of autumn so not pant shitting just yet but unequivocally cause for concern.
Boris should resign obviously.
That scale is extremely misleading, worthy of that Hames fellow from last year. It shows the current wave as a proportion of the previous wave, on a logarithmic scale. It should be on a linear scale becuase both series (wave 2 and wave 3) are exponential.
I think you are misreading it. 100% is the highest figure reached in January this year. Plotting it on a linear scale wouldn't change anything about how they looked in relation to each other.
The only reason they have chosen percentage over raw numbers is it means they don't have to have a number range for each chart.
I don't have a problem with it being a proportion, but an exponential figure being a proportion of another exponential figure already has that in built, the scale should then be linear.
It's the proportion of a single number, not of the exponential curve.
If that's what it's supposed to show then something is wrong with the data, because the current case number is not ~30% of the January peak.
The Jan peak for the North West (7 day average) was 6245 cases per day. Latest 7gday average figure is 1593 which is 26%
Thanks, I was stupidly looking at the national data. Haven't new cases in the North West plateaued now though?
Not really, hospitalisations have a bit but it's small numbers so difficult to get any sense of a pattern. Specific to Bolton it has peaked and the case rate is dropping pretty fast as the virus seems to have run out of viable hosts after running into walls of vaccinated people.
This took about 18 days to happen from trough to peak in a city with very low vaccinatin rates, relative to the rest of the country.
As a resident expert Max, why do these things come in waves? Without any vaccines at all it looked like we had beaten it about a year ago. The Indian Prime Minister even declared victory.
Now even with vaccines it’s deemed too much of a political risk for the government to open up more quickly.
I take it there is no suggestion of tightening restrictions? Just keeping the ones we have? In which case businesses turning a profit should be able to continue to do so. What we don't know is how many actually are right now.
One thing that's worth remembering is that people do not respond only to formal legal restrictions. They make choices themselves. So if Johnson scares the bejesus out of the country by delaying June 21st due to the Delta variant, then it's possible that places that are making a profit now will stop making a profit.
Dream on. Operating at less than 50% capacity with table service is unprofitable. It's only being done to reduce losses and in anticipation of restrictions being lifted in a week so that they can make money during the key summer months. If restrictions continue during the summer and into the autumn, there is no point continuing - especially as all the support is being taken away in July.
But, really, fuck this 4 -week extension to lockdown or even longer. Fuck Sage. Fuck the stupid controlling useless government which has thrown away the advantages of the vaccination programme, has fucked around over closing the borders to travel from the Indian sub-continent and is now going to fuck with my Daughter's business and my son's jobs and mine even more than they have fucked them already. Fuck all the bossy advisors expecting us to stay away from those we love forever.
Fuck. Off. All of them.
🤬🤬🤬🤬
That is all.
And even when India was put on the red list flights STILL continued......
But it can’t be stopped. They can just touch down in a green country and slip in.
So why pretend we shut them out - because DIRECT flights continued
I take it everyone venting here tonight will be swearing off a Tory vote while the PM is in power? Nope. Thought not. Therefore he will remain. Ultimately, then, who is responsible? Yes, but Corbyn, flags, statue, boring, Brexit, Lib Dems, woke, trans, Greens, Count Binface, housing, taxes, wibble, take a knee, wibble, wibble.
It would help us Boris-skeptics if you guys could provide a decent Opposition. But you can't, can you? Fucking Corbyn, FFS, and now the idiot Starmer, who is entirely captured by the Woke
If you had a Blair in charge I would vote for him tomorrow, even after Iraq
You know, probably the most annoying thing about this site is arseholes on both sides of the political divide who speak about the serious administrative business of Government like it’s trivial or easy. Those who think their amateur analysis of the figures they have on Covid is better than that of the Government after the experience of the last year.
You might be a lawyer, or a programmer, or an engineer, but you have no idea. You don’t operate in that level of ambiguity and you should be thankful the decision is not on your shoulders. If it was, most of you who are so dogmatic on here would crumble to the floor in tears.
Government is about nuance, and it’s not easy. I am dubious of an extension but still, as throughout this crisis, on balance I trust in the Government’s experts. No one else is better placed. No one. Certainly no one on here.
An excellent post
It is all so easy to shout from the sidelines
It's not the nuanced decision they are making now that matter - of course that is complex. It is the reason they are forced to make this decision. Which is: THEY DIDN'T SHUT THE FUCKING BORDERS
I am sorry to shout at you. but this is a clear and simple truth, which, it seems, needs emphasis before it sinks in
No need to apologise to me as I understand the anger
I would just say that the vast majority of those returning from India were our fellow citizens who had been visiting family and an arbitrary closure of our border to them was near impossible
It’s a difficult decision to make but hospitalisations and, significantly, ventilation beds in the NW are looking ominous. Hopefully things won’t be as bad this time round but a tough decision to make.
FPT Oh really? 🤔
There was over 4k in hospital in the Northwest in the peak, there's currently 271.
There were hundreds in hospital in Warrington in the peak, there's currently 3. Not 300, 3. Liverpool University Hospitals had over 500 in the peak, there's currently 9. Wirral University Teaching Hospital had nearly 300 in the peak, there's currently 3.
Single digits in hospital Trusts when it was hundreds in hospital most of the pandemic is not awful.
I think the trajectories are more important than the instantaneous values. You cannot deny that they are on the rise. All except deaths, thankfully.
I couldn't give the hairy crack of a rats arse that they're on the rise from virtually zero. Warrington's gone from 1 to 3 - big whoop! Big frigging deal!
Its not going to go from 3 to 300 because the vulnerable have been double-vaccinated already!
Trend lines all say different.
"Trend lines"
Riddle me this, how is it going to trend forever upwards when 80% of the adult population have antibodies already and virtually 100% of JCVI Groups 1-9 have had two jabs from a 99% effective vaccine?
I think the fraction above 50 that have been vaccinated is quite a bit off 100%, unfortunately.
Because we've not gotten around to vaccinating them yet despite them wanting it?
Or because they've rejected it? In which case screw them, they made their choice.
I'm just saying your claim that "virtually 100% of JCVI Groups 1-9 have had two jabs" is wrong.
There's a reason that virtually was there as opposed to literally.
It wasn't wrong. Anyone who refused the vaccine: fuck them.
Virtually implies something like >99%. It's probably closer to 90%, leaving a significant number vulnerable.
90% is virtually. It means that those which can be done, have been done.
Those that haven't got the dose - they've made their own choice. Waiting four weeks won't magically mean they're suddenly done, since they're not getting done of their own choice. So waiting four weeks doesn't achieve anything at all.
Its over.
You keep repeating this. Not every over 50 who wants a vaccine has been second jabbed. Not by some way. If that was your criterion you'd support a 4 week delay. Because by then they would have. But you are choosing to call them refusers. They aren't. They are not had my turn yet.
Adam Brooks @EssexPR · 2h Many businesses are back on full rent, but still at reduced capacities, their bounce back loan payments have now started. Many in Hospitality sold tickets to events after June 21st, many have stocked up and staffed for it.
The one thing that will torpedo this Government below the waterline is economic collapse.
We need huge numbers of businesses to go to the wall through this. Mass unemployment. The money markets to see that Britain's a turkey and stop lending Sunak the money.
National bankruptcy and a trip to the Gnomes of Zurich, holding out the begging bowl. It's the only way we're ever getting out of this.
Bring it on.
That's nuts. Even if you think a delay is overcautious, it doesn't mean there's no end in sight. We're are almost at herd immunity.
IT DOESN'T FUCKING WELL MATTER ANYMORE
They're not interested in "herd immunity". In their minds it doesn't even exist. They keep wibbling on about "the vaccines not offering 100% protection." They want Zero Covid. They want Zero Death.
No level of vaccination will ever be good enough. There'll always be an excuse for more restrictions. There'll always be an excuse for more delay.
Lockdown only ends with the destruction of this Government. And I can't see how that happens any other way but broad scale economic ruin.
Negative equity and 15% interest rates killed off John Major. We may need something worse to shift Johnson. Whatever it takes. We need to get rid of him.
You are sounding unhinged again. I will give you odds of 10/1 on their still being legal domestic restrictions by end of Sept.
Your £1 against my £10.
I know I do. And I really, REALLY hope I'm wrong. I'd love to be proven totally wrong. I'd delight in it. There would be an explosion of relief and joy from this general direction if the first delay also turns out to be the last.
But you do understand why I don't trust Boris Johnson - surely you must?
God yes. The bloke's an utter charlatan. If it worked for him politically he'd reimpose hard lockdown and keep it there for years. I just think you're misreading the situation. A short pause in the roadmap is one thing. A tortured and prolonged twilight to the pandemic is quite another. He won't be doing what you fear. It won't play out like that. I absolutely promise you and that's not something I do lightly. If you won't take my bet, take my promise.
It is obvious that his instincts are very strongly against lockdown, and that if he is forced into lockdown extensions it will be out of necessity. This site is collectively singing from a hymn sheet which says "Are we nearly there, daddy?" and then "But daddy, you PROMISED we were nearly there" and refuses to recognize the exigencies of life. The Tory Party did not invent the virus and has next to no control over how it behaves. Especially not once lockdown has been removed from its toolkit by pb fiat.
Nah, sorry, Boris had the chance to close the border with India and prevent the massive seeding of the variant. This is not "one of the exigencies of life". This is a plain old mistake. Which will now cost thousands of lives and many billions of pounds,
This is about as obvious a mistake as you get, in politics
Agreed, but it was a libertarian, permissive, lazy mistake; it was the mistake someone fundamentally anti lockdown would make. So enough of the pound shop 1984 "a boot imposing a mask on a human face forevah" stuff which so many of our esteemed fellow posters are offering us.
Adam Brooks @EssexPR · 2h Many businesses are back on full rent, but still at reduced capacities, their bounce back loan payments have now started. Many in Hospitality sold tickets to events after June 21st, many have stocked up and staffed for it.
The one thing that will torpedo this Government below the waterline is economic collapse.
We need huge numbers of businesses to go to the wall through this. Mass unemployment. The money markets to see that Britain's a turkey and stop lending Sunak the money.
National bankruptcy and a trip to the Gnomes of Zurich, holding out the begging bowl. It's the only way we're ever getting out of this.
Bring it on.
That's nuts. Even if you think a delay is overcautious, it doesn't mean there's no end in sight. We're are almost at herd immunity.
IT DOESN'T FUCKING WELL MATTER ANYMORE
They're not interested in "herd immunity". In their minds it doesn't even exist. They keep wibbling on about "the vaccines not offering 100% protection." They want Zero Covid. They want Zero Death.
No level of vaccination will ever be good enough. There'll always be an excuse for more restrictions. There'll always be an excuse for more delay.
Lockdown only ends with the destruction of this Government. And I can't see how that happens any other way but broad scale economic ruin.
Negative equity and 15% interest rates killed off John Major. We may need something worse to shift Johnson. Whatever it takes. We need to get rid of him.
You are sounding unhinged again. I will give you odds of 10/1 on their still being legal domestic restrictions by end of Sept.
Your £1 against my £10.
I know I do. And I really, REALLY hope I'm wrong. I'd love to be proven totally wrong. I'd delight in it. There would be an explosion of relief and joy from this general direction if the first delay also turns out to be the last.
But you do understand why I don't trust Boris Johnson - surely you must?
God yes. The bloke's an utter charlatan. If it worked for him politically he'd reimpose hard lockdown and keep it there for years. I just think you're misreading the situation. A short pause in the roadmap is one thing. A tortured and prolonged twilight to the pandemic is quite another. He won't be doing what you fear. It won't play out like that. I absolutely promise you and that's not something I do lightly. If you won't take my bet, take my promise.
Dude, you made sworn vows that Boris would NEVER delay unlockdown. It was your THING. Your USP. You nailed your colours to it. Absolute guarantee!
And it turns out you were wholly and totally wrong. I fear this rather devalues everything else you ever say
Even when I'm just a smidgen wrong there are few righter.
(i) Short delay then over? (Me and the rationals)
(ii) Or "government by scientists" and keeping restrictions forever (You and the paranoics).
Let's see.
Kinabalu doesn't want to admit hes been played by a master conman
Comments
Even as the sun finally shines on St Ives, he presides over half a nation waking up to his fucking stupidity, and a continued or even worsened lockdown, just because he made the insane decision to allow in 20,000 Indian travellers, for no good reason whatsoever, when everyone else said NO, STOP
Meanwhile, he will be surrounded by smiling G7 leaders who don't have this problem, because they didn't make this fucking crazy decision
Tricky
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/06/11/june-21-lockdown-lifting-called/
As we all know the Covid pandemic finished shortly afterwards.
That's not the same as the case being overwhelmingly made, and thus anyone disagreeing ignoring reality. People are weighing up the risks and costs differently, even if there is a rise in cases, hospitalisations and, yes, even deaths, to a point. That's not pretending it is all over, but whether the measures are still necessary and proportionate notwithstanding that.
I'd argue if the situation is as bad as the government is now saying then it should be imposing harsher measures, and asking why they are not.
It wasn't wrong. Anyone who refused the vaccine: fuck them.
Time to start planning an escape to a country that will actually be free of this shite one day. The UK will never truly be a free country again, the zero COVID c***s have won, the rest of us are all going to lose.
This is about as obvious a mistake as you get, in politics
So that may happen regardless.
What concerns me most this evening is this: What happens after the rumoured 4 week delay?
Go forward 4 weeks and let's say infections are slightly up again, hospitalisations slightly up and maybe the same for deaths. The figures will be tiny in proportion to the national population and not comparable to the situation we were in in the past. And an even greater proportion of new infections are numbers only with few actually getting ill or exhibiting any symptoms at all. And a good proportion of those that do become ill are unvaccinated by their own agency.
So, in the light of the above, here's the questions: if the government don't remove legal restrictions on 21 June why would they in 4 weeks' time?
The vaccines are our only silver bullet. There isn't another. This government are incapable of telling us that we have to live with Covid to some degree.
Those percentages aren't growth or anything like that.
Remember the South African variant? I’d quite like to be in SA right now.
But, really, fuck this 4 -week extension to lockdown or even longer. Fuck Sage. Fuck the stupid controlling useless government which has thrown away the advantages of the vaccination programme, has fucked around over closing the borders to travel from the Indian sub-continent and is now going to fuck with my Daughter's business and my son's jobs and mine even more than they have fucked them already. Fuck all the bossy advisors expecting us to stay away from those we love forever.
Fuck. Off. All of them.
🤬🤬🤬🤬
That is all.
I expect we can count on a single hand the number of days before the press is covered in people calling for tighter restrictions. Fuck them. We're closing in on 80% of adults vaccinated, 60% with two doses. Those that are left are either very low risk or not worthy of our freedoms being curtailed in order to protect (those who refused the vaccine).
The worst thing is this will be popular because people remain scared.
Meanwhile, up the road from me in Cambridge, home to one of the East's major teaching hospitals, the Covid patient number has recently skyrocketed from zero to two.
Once again, the issue here is that the available evidence suggests that, as per the remarks by the Chief Exec of NHS Providers, the link between cases and hospitalisations has been broken - but ministers and SAGE don't want to hear this. So they've shifted the goalposts and started mithering about cases being too high, rather than the hospitals being overwhelmed. And when, in four weeks' time, cases are still going up and hospitalisations have probably crept up a little as a result, they'll then decide that we can't unlock until the third wave has peaked and the hospital total has started to come down (and there'll also be some rubbish, no doubt, about the desperate necessity of getting 18 year olds double jabbed,) so the restrictions will go on. If enough doom-laden models appear then we may even start falling backwards into lockdown.
It all looks so very, very bad - not the progress of the disease, which will break itself against the wall of the vaccinated, but the panic in Whitehall, which will end up breaking the country if the Government doesn't snap out of this before very much longer.
The number of passengers on London’s transport network has “accelerated” beyond expectations and is now at almost 60 per cent of pre-pandemic levels, it has emerged.
Tube ridership is about 40 per cent of normal, while the number using the buses has grown to 60-65 per cent of pre-covid levels.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/londoners-buses-trains-numbers-rise-faster-than-expected-covid-b939798.html
This took about 18 days to happen from trough to peak in a city with very low vaccinatin rates, relative to the rest of the country.
The Opposition today is trying to capitalise on the "visitors from India before the Red List" meme. This new varient would have got here anyway at some point. We can't hide. I think this largely a red-herring to be honest.
But the thing is, if the Opposition and the media hammer Johnson over this point - spurious though it may be - what effect will this have? It will make him even more cautious because the thing that has characterised the government response all through this is not wanting to be criticised. They have a massive majority but are frightened of their own shadow.
(i) Short delay then over? (Me and the rationals)
(ii) Or "government by scientists" and keeping restrictions forever (You and the paranoics).
Let's see.
What Americanised shite is that?
We don't ride the tube. We travel on it.
So, goodnight to my fellow travellers!
I ask again - where are the LibDems?
You might be a lawyer, or a programmer, or an engineer, but you have no idea. You don’t operate in that level of ambiguity and you should be thankful the decision is not on your shoulders. If it was, most of you who are so dogmatic on here would crumble to the floor in tears.
Government is about nuance, and it’s not easy. I am dubious of an extension but still, as throughout this crisis, on balance I trust in the Government’s experts. No one else is better placed. No one. Certainly no one on here.
Why the fuck should I continue to put my life on hold? After 16 loooong months?
I've done my duty, I've stayed at home (often alone, to detriment of my mental health), I've had my jabs, I've been careful and sensible.
That's it. I'm done. I now have a small but not microscopic risk of catching this wretched bug and dying. Just as I have a risk of dying in a car, airplane or ski lift. I will take that risk and resume my life and I will break the law if they try and stop me.
Are there any PB Uber-Tories still willing to defend the man? HYUFD, perhaps?
I reckon we're probably running at about 90% thoroughly sick of the pandemic and thoroughly sick of him along with it.
Problem is, at the rate things are going we're likely to be stuck with both of them for the rest of the decade.
I am very angry... This is a disgraceful Prime minister
It is all so easy to shout from the sidelines
If they do pick up the whole freedom day and place it one month ahead, I predict the government will have to close up even more than we are now. Surely no you can’t have guests at your wedding, but yes you can party and get drunk together at a cricket ground doesn’t add up? Any government apologist what to disagree and say the logic does add up and this wouldn’t be a mess?
It's fairly basic governance. It's closing the gate in the city walls when the dragon is just outside. They knew this shit in about 2000BC
Somehow this "nuance" evaded our dear prime minister and his aides
When its people who hold such power over us better to risk Ill informed comment than keep schtum because others likely do know best.
Better that we flail about somewhat than just delegate even our own ability to form opinions on the basis others know better.
That's taking a reasonable point - things are complicated, they have more info and are doing their best - to the point of unreasonableness.
But, really, very poor judgement on this. We tried to warn you. Why listen to you again?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJrfPFTk3pU
Those that haven't got the dose - they've made their own choice. Waiting four weeks won't magically mean they're suddenly done, since they're not getting done of their own choice. So waiting four weeks doesn't achieve anything at all.
Its over.
I am sorry to shout at you. but this is a clear and simple truth, which, it seems, needs emphasis before it sinks in
I do not trust the siren voices for zero covid but Whitty and Vallance, who have been silent, will be the ones to watch on Monday
I mean, to be honest, given our complete and utter powerlessness to do anything about any of this, perhaps it would be best to do that? But, for my sins, I can't help caring.
Now, is it really taking things too far for us to question why it is the Government is making these decisions, and whether or not they might - just might - be wrong? At a minimum, we know that the models that they are supplied with have given wildly differing projections in the past and have frequently proven to be wide of the mark. We also know that the medical establishment committed a number of errors and u-turns during the pandemic, for example the flip-flopping on the efficacy of masks, and there is at least a debate to be had on why they were so insistent that there was no point in closing the borders last year.
Beyond that, if we make a reasoned judgment that the next wave of Covid is unlikely to cause a hospital incinerating calamity, then we quickly move on to the philosophical argument about how much death and suffering from Covid we should be willing to tolerate, in order to compensate for the immense damage caused by restrictions.
However, if you just want to accept everything that you're spoon fed by ministers and officials in Whitehall without question, then be my guest.
Nope. Thought not. Therefore he will remain.
Ultimately, then, who is responsible?
Yes, but Corbyn, flags, statue, boring, Brexit, Lib Dems, woke, trans, Greens, Count Binface, housing, taxes, wibble, take a knee, wibble, wibble.
There is the problem that, since the purges of 2019, there isn't much of an alternative Cabinet to lead a post-Boris Conservative Party. The current crop are there because they attached themselves to Boris, most of them will have to go when he goes.
The other thing that saves Boris for now is probably the split between "we can't unlock because of Boris's Indian Indecision" and "we should unlock but Boris is afraid of the boffins". The two groups will be hitting different targets, so the battering will probably fail to sink the blonde buffoon again.
But he's not up to the job of being Prime Minister, is he?
Now even with vaccines it’s deemed too much of a political risk for the government to open up more quickly.
If you had a Blair in charge I would vote for him tomorrow, even after Iraq
I would just say that the vast majority of those returning from India were our fellow citizens who had been visiting family and an arbitrary closure of our border to them was near impossible
If that was your criterion you'd support a 4 week delay. Because by then they would have. But you are choosing to call them refusers.
They aren't. They are not had my turn yet.