From @kalmemeg on Twitter. We need to get those second doses out ASAP.
“I knew @JamesWard73 would come up with the VE goods, and boy has he.
This is very reassuring for vaccines but a second dose is crucial 💉
📍VE vs infection: ~35% after 1 dose and ~80% after 2 doses
📍VE vs. hospitalisation/death: ~80% after 1 dose and >95% after 2 doses.”
first dose was 'crucia'l in February.
Over 70s 'crucial' in March
Over 60s 'crucial' in April
Two jabs over 60s in May
Two jabs over 50s in June
Two jabs into teens in July
Two in Embryos in August.
We getting nursed to the autumn, when it will be the booster that is 'crucial'. Zahawi said as much yesterday. If take up isn't sufficient, new lockdown measures will be imposed as a punishment. Not that there will be many pubs or airlines left then anyway.
Something will always be 'crucial'..... There will always be a reason to delay our freedoms.
We ceded them. The people who have them don't want to give them back. We won't get them back until more people start turning against this worst of all governments and its misrule.
The MSM don't cover the protest marches. Two very large ones so far. Prof Norman Fenton (Queen Mary Univ of London) tweeted to ask why a tiny march at the G7 meeting got more coverage. Why indeed?
Zahawi set up a family-owned vaccine company a while back. Follow the money ...
If the delay works - and there is no reason to have one if it doesn't - the effect will be to turn the third wave from a potential peak to an actual ripple. People thinking it was all unnecessary will raise the cry, BED-WETTERS !!! Especially on PB.
I was just thinking about the politics of this some more, with some possible hopeful signs (for those who think delay means that we will be locked down for ever, although not much comfort for those who will be directly negatively impacted in the next month). The thoughts go like this.
Supposing the Government are pretty confident that the vaccines will do their job, and the wave of the delta variant will be large, have some consequences for hospitalisations and deaths, but really think it will ultimately be pretty manageable. However they want to get some credit for this, and avoid criticism for any mini wave of deaths etc that occur.
Many people have pointed out that if they really believe the scary projections on hospitalisations and deaths, then a simple "delay" to June 21st makes no sense. They should be slamming on the brakes and hitting reverse. So why is that not (apparently) on the radar? Because they don't think there's a problem. But by delaying for a few weeks they think they will get some credit for the "caution" and claim that the caution has prevented the extreme scenarios (which they don't believe in) from playing out. If this is the case then the positive news is that they are not quite as in the hands of the scientists as we fear, and are simply being guided largely by the politics. And if that is true, and the rise in hospitalisations/deaths continues to not be a serious problem, we can at least be confident that there will be a lifting of restrictions on July 5th or July 19th.
I was just thinking about the politics of this some more, with some possible hopeful signs (for those who think delay means that we will be locked down for ever, although not much comfort for those who will be directly negatively impacted in the next month). The thoughts go like this.
Supposing the Government are pretty confident that the vaccines will do their job, and the wave of the delta variant will be large, have some consequences for hospitalisations and deaths, but really think it will ultimately be pretty manageable. However they want to get some credit for this, and avoid criticism for any mini wave of deaths etc that occur.
Many people have pointed out that if they really believe the scary projections on hospitalisations and deaths, then a simple "delay" to June 21st makes no sense. They should be slamming on the brakes and hitting reverse. So why is that not (apparently) on the radar? Because they don't think there's a problem. But by delaying for a few weeks they think they will get some credit for the "caution" and claim that the caution has prevented the extreme scenarios (which they don't believe in) from playing out. If this is the case then the positive news is that they are not quite as in the hands of the scientists as we fear, and are simply being guided largely by the politics. And if that is true, and the rise in hospitalisations/deaths continues to not be a serious problem, we can at least be confident that there will be a lifting of restrictions on July 5th or July 19th.
[..]
If the delay works - and there is no reason to have one if it doesn't - the effect will be to turn the third wave from a potential peak to an actual ripple. People thinking it was all unnecessary will raise the cry, BED-WETTERS !!! Especially on PB.
Well that depends. The argument i was making was that there is not actually much difference between current restrictions (especially considering the number who aren't really abiding by them and the myriad of really quite large scale public events that are happening) and a pretty much full unlocking (perhaps with a few residual things like masks on public transport and continuing work from home guidance.
So the "bed wetting" argument will be justified (from a public health perspective). If you really think the dichotomy is between "minor ripple" and "massive peak" then the policy prescription should be a big reversal of what has happened so far. Put it this way - i can't really see them putting out credible models on Monday which show a big difference between maintenance of current restrictions and complete unlocking. The big rises in cases that are feeding the models are happening at the moment.
Which is why i'm suggesting it might all be purely performative. Which may still be a big political misjudgement.
From @kalmemeg on Twitter. We need to get those second doses out ASAP.
“I knew @JamesWard73 would come up with the VE goods, and boy has he.
This is very reassuring for vaccines but a second dose is crucial 💉
📍VE vs infection: ~35% after 1 dose and ~80% after 2 doses
📍VE vs. hospitalisation/death: ~80% after 1 dose and >95% after 2 doses.”
first dose was 'crucia'l in February.
Over 70s 'crucial' in March
Over 60s 'crucial' in April
Two jabs over 60s in May
Two jabs over 50s in June
Two jabs into teens in July
Two in Embryos in August.
We getting nursed to the autumn, when it will be the booster that is 'crucial'. Zahawi said as much yesterday. If take up isn't sufficient, new lockdown measures will be imposed as a punishment. Not that there will be many pubs or airlines left then anyway.
Something will always be 'crucial'..... There will always be a reason to delay our freedoms.
We ceded them. The people who have them don't want to give them back. We won't get them back until more people start turning against this worst of all governments and its misrule.
The MSM don't cover the protest marches. Two very large ones so far. Prof Norman Fenton (Queen Mary Univ of London) tweeted to ask why a tiny march at the G7 meeting got more coverage. Why indeed?
Zahawi set up a family-owned vaccine company a while back. Follow the money ...
Yes still far too many nieve people about. Really people need to be hit in the pocket more
I was just thinking about the politics of this some more, with some possible hopeful signs (for those who think delay means that we will be locked down for ever, although not much comfort for those who will be directly negatively impacted in the next month). The thoughts go like this.
Supposing the Government are pretty confident that the vaccines will do their job, and the wave of the delta variant will be large, have some consequences for hospitalisations and deaths, but really think it will ultimately be pretty manageable. However they want to get some credit for this, and avoid criticism for any mini wave of deaths etc that occur.
Many people have pointed out that if they really believe the scary projections on hospitalisations and deaths, then a simple "delay" to June 21st makes no sense. They should be slamming on the brakes and hitting reverse. So why is that not (apparently) on the radar? Because they don't think there's a problem. But by delaying for a few weeks they think they will get some credit for the "caution" and claim that the caution has prevented the extreme scenarios (which they don't believe in) from playing out. If this is the case then the positive news is that they are not quite as in the hands of the scientists as we fear, and are simply being guided largely by the politics. And if that is true, and the rise in hospitalisations/deaths continues to not be a serious problem, we can at least be confident that there will be a lifting of restrictions on July 5th or July 19th.
On the other hand what we may be seeing is a massive political misjudgement, based on a misunderstanding of "public support" for further restrictions. The Government might be wise to cast their minds back to March 31st 2019. At that time i believe there was no obvious public support for "no deal" Brexit, and indications that the public thought that the Brexit deadline should be extended. But, despite there being no obvious sight of a deal being achieved, public support in the polls for the Government seemed bizarrely high, despite all the claims that the Government were going to give them what logic said they didn't want (ie. Brexit come what may on Mar 31st). And the Government, thinking that their own high level support and expectations of delay coincided - did just that. And their public support collapsed.
Will the same thing happen here? The Government are seeing the polls saying support for delay of June 21st, and seeing polls showing continued high support for the Govt and thinking the two coincide. When in fact they could be completely independent. Will history repeat itself, and support for the Government collapse next week? It's possible. The only obvious difference is that it's not obvious where that support will go. There's no Brexit party. So maybe the only signs will be in the underlying figures.
Yep. Makes sense. Also what proportion of those polled are actual Tory voters?
The core supporters of lockdown are the wfh types the furloughed and the pensioners. Somehow the lives of these people need to be made more uncomfortable
Politics is as much about tone and sensibility as policy. Johnson gets that and most people on the left do not, which is why they keeps being surprised by how popular he is. The culture clash pits American-style earnestness and piety against British irreverence and perversity. Johnson’s clownishness happens to have found its perfect foil in the grimly humourless, relentlessly prosecutorial, technocratic and yes, deracinated tone of wokeism. Voters do not necessarily believe Johnson is competent, which will in the end be his downfall, but they do know he will never lecture them. He likes them too much.
I am in the unusual situation on here of saying something nice about Boris Johnson when everyone else is castigating him, but I think he is doing a good job of genial host at G7 in Cornwall.
In diplomatic terms the G7 is a missed opportunity for the UK, but the issues there go beyond event management. The really significant diplomatic shift, the biggest for some years, is Biden's move to establish a new American world order and to bring the remaining liberal democracies into it. His scope is ambitious. A Transatlantic settlement would have been music to the ears of a previous UK administration but the UK burnt the transatlantic bridge role with Brexit. The key prospect for Biden's pitch is the EU with the UK somewhat sidelined.
On Covid measures, I mostly agree with @DavidL. We have to deal with the virus situation as it is, and not as we might hope it to be. I do think the vaccine risk assessments are sound, from what I have seen, and the UK vaccine rollout remains pretty good.
Dealing with the virus isn’t really a competition but many of us pointed out that the UK’s vaccine rollout was much better than others. The assumption was we’d get out of lockdown ahead of them. But the delay in restricting travel from India means that this now won’t happen. https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1403617838972248065
This is complete nonsense. The idea that we were going to stop the delta variant catching hold in this country is a fantasy unless we turn ourselves into NZ. What has stopped us from going ahead on 21st June is the poor effort with vaccines over the last month. That in turn has been driven by a failure to make the best use of the available resources, specifically AZ. That in turn has been driven by very poor risk assessments and a peculiar lack of urgency in maximising vaccination.
There is plenty to criticise the government for but failing to stop a more transmissible variant of a virus in broad circulation is not one of them. Something like 90%+ of cases are now delta. If we had started with a lower base by reducing the number of cases imported we would still have got there pretty rapidly.
Dealing with the virus isn’t really a competition but many of us pointed out that the UK’s vaccine rollout was much better than others. The assumption was we’d get out of lockdown ahead of them. But the delay in restricting travel from India means that this now won’t happen. https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1403617838972248065
This is complete nonsense. The idea that we were going to stop the delta variant catching hold in this country is a fantasy unless we turn ourselves into NZ. What has stopped us from going ahead on 21st June is the poor effort with vaccines over the last month. That in turn has been driven by a failure to make the best use of the available resources, specifically AZ. That in turn has been driven by very poor risk assessments and a peculiar lack of urgency in maximising vaccination.
There is plenty to criticise the government for but failing to stop a more transmissible variant of a virus in broad circulation is not one of them. Something like 90%+ of cases are now delta. If we had started with a lower base by reducing the number of cases imported we would still have got there pretty rapidly.
I agree completely.
The main problem relates to a TSE post last night, which linked to a Times article citing a YouGov poll saying that only 37% of the public think that 21 June should be adhered to, with 53% thinking that restrictions should continue.
In the final analysis, populist governments will follow the polls.
We don't get out of this while people are quite content being paid to work (or not) at home, be paid regardless, or are furloughed, don't have the commute, don't do to mass events or travel themselves and don't give a shit about others, don't feels significant loss of freedoms themselves, are unpracticed and ill-equipped to evaluate risk.
So, as I posted last night, the government is listening to an information-light public, a good proportion which, truth be told, are enjoying all this, at least in a wallowing-in-the-misery, blitz-spirit sense. And, importantly, are relishing the clipping of wings of those who actually had good lives before all this.
In short, views collated in polls measure peoples self-interest and ignorance rather than principle and legality.
I've been bleating on about this for months I know, but one of the biggest problems is Sunak's multiple extensions of financial support.
Very true. These people enjoying lockdowns need to be hit in the pocket..and hard
Politics is as much about tone and sensibility as policy. Johnson gets that and most people on the left do not, which is why they keeps being surprised by how popular he is. The culture clash pits American-style earnestness and piety against British irreverence and perversity. Johnson’s clownishness happens to have found its perfect foil in the grimly humourless, relentlessly prosecutorial, technocratic and yes, deracinated tone of wokeism. Voters do not necessarily believe Johnson is competent, which will in the end be his downfall, but they do know he will never lecture them. He likes them too much.
I was just thinking about the politics of this some more, with some possible hopeful signs (for those who think delay means that we will be locked down for ever, although not much comfort for those who will be directly negatively impacted in the next month). The thoughts go like this.
Supposing the Government are pretty confident that the vaccines will do their job, and the wave of the delta variant will be large, have some consequences for hospitalisations and deaths, but really think it will ultimately be pretty manageable. However they want to get some credit for this, and avoid criticism for any mini wave of deaths etc that occur.
Many people have pointed out that if they really believe the scary projections on hospitalisations and deaths, then a simple "delay" to June 21st makes no sense. They should be slamming on the brakes and hitting reverse. So why is that not (apparently) on the radar? Because they don't think there's a problem. But by delaying for a few weeks they think they will get some credit for the "caution" and claim that the caution has prevented the extreme scenarios (which they don't believe in) from playing out. If this is the case then the positive news is that they are not quite as in the hands of the scientists as we fear, and are simply being guided largely by the politics. And if that is true, and the rise in hospitalisations/deaths continues to not be a serious problem, we can at least be confident that there will be a lifting of restrictions on July 5th or July 19th.
On the other hand what we may be seeing is a massive political misjudgement, based on a misunderstanding of "public support" for further restrictions. The Government might be wise to cast their minds back to March 31st 2019. At that time i believe there was no obvious public support for "no deal" Brexit, and indications that the public thought that the Brexit deadline should be extended. But, despite there being no obvious sight of a deal being achieved, public support in the polls for the Government seemed bizarrely high, despite all the claims that the Government were going to give them what logic said they didn't want (ie. Brexit come what may on Mar 31st). And the Government, thinking that their own high level support and expectations of delay coincided - did just that. And their public support collapsed.
Will the same thing happen here? The Government are seeing the polls saying support for delay of June 21st, and seeing polls showing continued high support for the Govt and thinking the two coincide. When in fact they could be completely independent. Will history repeat itself, and support for the Government collapse next week? It's possible. The only obvious difference is that it's not obvious where that support will go. There's no Brexit party. So maybe the only signs will be in the underlying figures.
Yep. Makes sense. Also what proportion of those polled are actual Tory voters?
The core supporters of lockdown are the wfh types the furloughed and the pensioners. Somehow the lives of these people need to be made more uncomfortable
Fat chance. The government cannot even get it together to end the indefensible triple lock.
Comments
not been extended, unlike IndieSage’s lockdown fetish.
Zahawi set up a family-owned vaccine company a while back. Follow the money ...
So the "bed wetting" argument will be justified (from a public health perspective). If you really think the dichotomy is between "minor ripple" and "massive peak" then the policy prescription should be a big reversal of what has happened so far. Put it this way - i can't really see them putting out credible models on Monday which show a big difference between maintenance of current restrictions and complete unlocking. The big rises in cases that are feeding the models are happening at the moment.
Which is why i'm suggesting it might all be purely performative. Which may still be a big political misjudgement.
Sure.
In diplomatic terms the G7 is a missed opportunity for the UK, but the issues there go beyond event management. The really significant diplomatic shift, the biggest for some years, is Biden's move to establish a new American world order and to bring the remaining liberal democracies into it. His scope is ambitious. A Transatlantic settlement would have been music to the ears of a previous UK administration but the UK burnt the transatlantic bridge role with Brexit. The key prospect for Biden's pitch is the EU with the UK somewhat sidelined.
On Covid measures, I mostly agree with @DavidL. We have to deal with the virus situation as it is, and not as we might hope it to be. I do think the vaccine risk assessments are sound, from what I have seen, and the UK vaccine rollout remains pretty good.
https://mobile.twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1403643225156603906