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Keir Starmer now slumps to Corbyn levels in the latest Ipsos leader ratings – politicalbetting.com

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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,860
    Scott_xP said:

    The formal US protest to the UK (démarche) is very rare,especially among allies. It marks the UK’s new & unwanted reputation as a nation whose word cannot be trusted,signing a treaty it broke almost immediately & refusing to recognise the impact on law in Europe. Hard to recover.
    https://twitter.com/BillNeelyReport/status/1402963773741219840

    No demarche. Biden admin isn’t issuing any diplomatic rebuke to UK over Northern Ireland, I’m told, contrary to a report in a British newspaper.
    https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1402901660867993601
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Scott_xP said:

    The formal US protest to the UK (démarche) is very rare,especially among allies. It marks the UK’s new & unwanted reputation as a nation whose word cannot be trusted,signing a treaty it broke almost immediately & refusing to recognise the impact on law in Europe. Hard to recover.
    https://twitter.com/BillNeelyReport/status/1402963773741219840

    The US have already denied there was a demarche, but you do you!
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,633
    Leon said:

    Didn't know this. Not good


    "In Bolton, 21% of primary children and 31% of secondary children are absent from school due to COVID."

    https://twitter.com/MarkPlackett1/status/1402451303347810310?s=20

    Because that is where the cases are - among the unvaccinated kids. This is why the NHS is not going to be overwhelmed.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,012

    Which country does the British public think is the most important ally to the UK?

    USA: 46%
    Australia: 6%
    Ireland: 6%
    Canada: 5%
    France: 4%

    59% of 2019 Conservative voters and 35% of 2019 Labour voters say USA.


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1402958874458611714?s=20

    As our data from July 2020 shows, the proportion of both Conservative and Labour voters who view the United States as more of an ally has increased in the time since Joe Biden was elected President of the United States—from 58% to 65% for Conservative voters and 33% to 48% for Labour voters. This suggests that the UK is more open to closer relations with the United States now that Donald Trump is no longer in power, though some Labour voters continue to oppose this prospect regardless.

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/uk-foreign-relations-opinions-of-conservative-and-labour-voters/

    France an ally ... ffs...
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    isam said:

    Her citizens of nowhere comment related to big business not paying their share if tax didn’t it?
    I believe she meant something along those lines.

    But within the toxic discourse of the post-referendum period, it carried other, terrifyingly inflammatory connotations.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,852
    edited June 2021

    No. The word is not "mediocre", it's "mild". The weather is substantially pleasant most of the time. The countryside is pleasant. It's not Yellowstone but neither is it Iowa. The rivers are right for the size of country.
    No decent rivers?

    The swerving Wye at Tintern, the emerald Thames valley in Oxfordshire, the Teign tumbling across Dartmoor, the salmon-leaping Tweed in the Borders, the exquisite coves of the Fal in Cornwall, the dappled trout-fisheries of the Test, the mighty Tyne as it rolls under the bridge at Newcastle....

    No decent rivers! Pah
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FFS Root 😡🏏

    3 down straight after lunch.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,553
    Hancock says MRNA vaccines can be developed for an escape variant "within days", and would be able to move through clinical trials much quicker.

    Well bloody get on with it then...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    UK Ex England 26,826 / 62,445
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Hancock says MRNA vaccines can be developed for an escape variant "within days", and would be able to move through clinical trials much quicker.

    Well bloody get on with it then...

    We haven't got an escape variant yet though have we? Pfizer still works versus all these variants so far doesn't it?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,553
    edited June 2021

    FFS Root 😡🏏

    3 down straight after lunch.

    What did Independent SAGE say....

    Even more embarrassing getting out to Henry, who has the worst bowling average of any NZ bowler ever to play more than 10 tests.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    I get the sense that the Edgbaston crowd won't let an England batting collapse spoil their afternoon...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,852
    A more upbeat story, which is needed


    "Four weeks ago, Bolton was described as "ground zero" of the Delta coronavirus variant in the UK. A month later cases are down by 30%. So how did they do it?

    "As children prepared to go back to school after the Easter holidays, something worrying was happening in Bolton, Greater Manchester."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-57425730
  • isamisam Posts: 41,349
    edited June 2021

    I believe she meant something along those lines.

    But within the toxic discourse of the post-referendum period, it carried other, terrifyingly inflammatory connotations.
    But people who wanted a second referendum wilfully misunderstood her comments so as to pour petrol on any Brexit induced fireworks. And they were clever people, they just could not stomach being defeated.

    Hence Boris, 80 seat majority, and the Brexit we have now.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited June 2021

    Or we do the opposite. Recognise that we have vaccinated the vulnerable, drop the concepts of bubbles and self-isolation from proximity and if it spreads it spreads and burns out.
    It seems to be that a major part of the problem is the continuing failure to distinguish between vaxxed and non-vaxxed for things like self isolation etc. It means thing like rising cases represent a problem in themselves, regardless of the public health consequences because current policies require people, under criminal penalty from non compliance, to isolate when coming into contact, regardless of their vaccine status. This is bonkers.

    There could be no public health risks at all, and the economy could still be brought to a grinding halt.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    IshmaelZ said:

    Come up here to the Rough Bounds of Moidart and say that.

    And the sea's fine, just get in.
    Preferences are personal. But Brits do have this idiotic tendency to bash how wonderful Britain truly is. While many Brits might prefer to live elsewhere, there are many Americans, Spaniards, French, Italians etc... who would prefer to be in Britain.

    Is Britain the best? There is no "Best". Does Britain have stunning natural beauty, great food, great culture, great science, great fundamental infrastructure for life? In any impartial analysis, yes, yes, yes, yes and yes.

    Of course, you may be skeptical as this is coming from an expat washed up on US shores. But I have lived in 7 countries, and spent more than passing time in another 50. Britain is definitely in the top bracket.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,279
    IshmaelZ said:

    Come up here to the Rough Bounds of Moidart and say that.

    And the sea's fine, just get in.
    Scotland! We haven't been allowed to travel through our own country for part of the year thanks to Sturgeon.

    I have been looking at the islands on the west coast though. Mull, Skye, Harris, even. I would like to visit the area.

    That area and Cornwall are perhaps the only parts of the UK that could get my juices flowing. And Cornwall will be chock-a-block this year.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,553
    Leon said:

    A more upbeat story, which is needed


    "Four weeks ago, Bolton was described as "ground zero" of the Delta coronavirus variant in the UK. A month later cases are down by 30%. So how did they do it?

    "As children prepared to go back to school after the Easter holidays, something worrying was happening in Bolton, Greater Manchester."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-57425730

    Its like they vaccinated a load of people or something.....now about that 5m doses doing nothing.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    UK 176,559 / 316,358

    Sub half a million. Not good enough for a thursday.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,553
    'The witch hunt has to stop!': Ex-England captain Michael Vaughan

    Says the man who said Ollie Robinson had to be dropped so he could go away and educate himself...about something he did 10 years ago.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,279
    Leon said:

    No decent rivers?

    The swerving Wye at Tintern, the emerald Thames valley in Oxfordshire, the Teign tumbling across Dartmoor, the salmon-leaping Tweed in the Borders, the exquisite coves of the Fal in Cornwall, the dappled trout-fisheries of the Test, the mighty Tyne as it rolls under the bridge at Newcastle....

    No decent rivers! Pah
    Verses the Dordogne or Ardeche? Come on!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,553
    edited June 2021
    Pulpstar said:

    UK 176,559 / 316,358

    Sub half a million. Not good enough for a thursday.

    There is a clear obvious problem with supply, while we also have a clear obvious problem with cases. And like anything with COVID, the longer you leave it, the worse the problem becomes very quickly.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    TimT said:

    Preferences are personal. But Brits do have this idiotic tendency to bash how wonderful Britain truly is. While many Brits might prefer to live elsewhere, there are many Americans, Spaniards, French, Italians etc... who would prefer to be in Britain.

    Is Britain the best? There is no "Best". Does Britain have stunning natural beauty, great food, great culture, great science, great fundamental infrastructure for life? In any impartial analysis, yes, yes, yes, yes and yes.

    Of course, you may be skeptical as this is coming from an expat washed up on US shores. But I have lived in 7 countries, and spent more than passing time in another 50. Britain is definitely in the top bracket.
    I agree - the landscape and coast in Britain are particuarly amazing and diverse. You need to spend time in a flat, boring country to truly realise this. Interesting architecture, decent food, good infrastructure to get around also count massively in its favour.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538

    'The witch hunt has to stop!': Ex-England captain Michael Vaughan

    Says the man who said Ollie Robinson had to be dropped so he could go away and educate himself...about something he did 10 years ago.

    Which witch hunt is he referring to?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,279

    No. The word is not "mediocre", it's "mild". The weather is substantially pleasant most of the time. The countryside is pleasant. It's not Yellowstone but neither is it Iowa. The rivers are right for the size of country.
    "It's not Yellowstone but neither is it Iowa." Well - yes - and you kind of make my point for me. If you live in Iowa you can travel to Yellowstone. Or to New York, or to Florida, San Francisco or to Yosemite. No wonder many Americans don't feel the need to have passport.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134
    isam said:

    But people who wanted a second referendum wilfully misunderstood her comments so as to pour petrol on any Brexit induced fireworks. And they were clever people, they just could not stomach being defeated.

    Hence Boris, 80 seat majority, and the Brexit we have now.
    Our crooked system says hello.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited June 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    Come up here to the Rough Bounds of Moidart and say that.

    And the sea's fine, just get in.
    Are you going to write us an autoptic account of your circumnavigation of Britain in the manner of Pytheas' lost Περὶ Τοῦ Ὠκεανοῦ?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    It is not obvious to me why those who question the character and direction of this country in the past few years should be assumed to believe it is “a shithole”.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151
    Stocky said:

    "It's not Yellowstone but neither is it Iowa." Well - yes - and you kind of make my point for me. If you live in Iowa you can travel to Yellowstone. Or to New York, or to Florida, San Francisco or to Yosemite. No wonder many Americans don't feel the need to have passport.

    And what makes America "United" is freedom of movement

    (Not regulatory or financial alignment...)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134
    TimT said:

    Preferences are personal. But Brits do have this idiotic tendency to bash how wonderful Britain truly is. While many Brits might prefer to live elsewhere, there are many Americans, Spaniards, French, Italians etc... who would prefer to be in Britain.

    Is Britain the best? There is no "Best". Does Britain have stunning natural beauty, great food, great culture, great science, great fundamental infrastructure for life? In any impartial analysis, yes, yes, yes, yes and yes.

    Of course, you may be skeptical as this is coming from an expat washed up on US shores. But I have lived in 7 countries, and spent more than passing time in another 50. Britain is definitely in the top bracket.
    I agree with you. But Britain’s appeal lies in being mostly harmless, like the Earth in Hitchhikers. There isnt so much of the wow factor that you get in Venice or the Alps or Yellowstone or New York or Norway, but you have a lot of charmingly pleasant and inoffensive countryside.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,852
    Stocky said:

    Verses the Dordogne or Ardeche? Come on!
    France is a bigger country, with much grander scenery; but Britain is also beautiful, just in a different, quieter way

    And parts of the Hebrides are as epic and poetic as anywhere on earth. St Kilda is globally peerless. And Foula!

    Also Suffolk. Magical in places, quite magical - ditto Herefordshire

    You need to explore the UK a bit more
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,279
    Scott_xP said:

    And what makes America "United" is freedom of movement

    (Not regulatory or financial alignment...)
    Jeez
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,724
    darkage said:

    @Leon is provocative and seems to enjoy winding people up which is all very entertaining. but absolutely correct about the woke.

    Not so sure about the alien stuff.
    I think you have to take the package.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884

    Well precisely.

    Though I think you can reconcile all of it with complaints being legitimate. Simply sign the treaty agreeing to the Protocol knowing full well the Protocol would never be workable (and you have no intention of making it work) and that you can then legitimately complain its unworkable down the road.

    Which again is no different really to the UK agreeing to give away half the rebate for reform of the CAP, only to have it said that there is never going to be that reform the second the ink was dry on us giving away the rebate.
    I think it's more that Johnson can't admit to choosing to split the country rather than maintain alignment with EU veterinary standards. Even to himself. Hence the performative arguments with the EU and broken treaty commitments to cover his tracks. That they play well with his base is a double win!
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,542
    @Philip_Thompson re last thread. Sorry I didn't reply to your reply to me about the negotiations re NI part of Brexit. After I made my post I noted a comment you made to someone else and thought you might come back to me with that reply.

    Reluctantly I do completely agree with the logic of your argument in those circumstances. Obviously we should never have got into that pickle in the first place and I don't agree with negotiating in bad faith, but I can see the lack of alternatives. Doesn't bode well for future agreements though.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    We haven't got an escape variant yet though have we? Pfizer still works versus all these variants so far doesn't it?
    Exactly. Don't do 'gain of function research' but develop vaccines for escape variants before nature makes them. Which is it?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,279
    Leon said:

    France is a bigger country, with much grander scenery; but Britain is also beautiful, just in a different, quieter way

    And parts of the Hebrides are as epic and poetic as anywhere on earth. St Kilda is globally peerless. And Foula!

    Also Suffolk. Magical in places, quite magical - ditto Herefordshire

    You need to explore the UK a bit more
    Perhaps a small wildlife cruise round the Scottish islands might suit me. Especially if whales are involved.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,793

    Are you sure? Wasn't this found to be a garbled version of some bland advice ... possibly in Brighton?
    Sorry, just come back to this. It was a reliable source that told me that this is not bland advice, but edict, and a major maternity centre near me
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    'The witch hunt has to stop!': Ex-England captain Michael Vaughan

    Says the man who said Ollie Robinson had to be dropped so he could go away and educate himself...about something he did 10 years ago.

    Michael Vaughan - never knowingly consistent...

    (I assume he’s just realised that players covered by his managing agency don’t have pure white social media histories...)
  • AnExileinD4AnExileinD4 Posts: 337
    Scott_xP said:

    And what makes America "United" is freedom of movement

    (Not regulatory or financial alignment...)
    Christ, but you're a bore.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,724

    Are you going to write us an autoptic account of your circumnavigation of Britain in the manner of Pytheas' lost Περὶ Τοῦ Ὠκεανοῦ?
    Can't answer for @Ishmael_Z, obvs, but I won't be.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,835

    Because that is where the cases are - among the unvaccinated kids. This is why the NHS is not going to be overwhelmed.

    Because that is where the cases are - among the unvaccinated kids. This is why the NHS is not going to be overwhelmed.
    Also, that is not 21% and 31% of children HAVE covid. That is children missing school due to a positive test in their class.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    6 covid deaths recorded yesterday in English hospitals
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    There is a clear obvious problem with supply, while we also have a clear obvious problem with cases. And like anything with COVID, the longer you leave it, the worse the problem becomes very quickly.
    Change the guidance on AZ and the supply problem disappears.
  • The thing that always entrances me about the UK scenery, particularly when returning, is its human scale. There is something very reassuringly comfortable about it.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    TOPPING said:

    Can't answer for @Ishmael_Z, obvs, but I won't be.
    Are you doing one right now? I think he is!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,724
    Leon said:

    France is a bigger country, with much grander scenery; but Britain is also beautiful, just in a different, quieter way

    And parts of the Hebrides are as epic and poetic as anywhere on earth. St Kilda is globally peerless. And Foula!

    Also Suffolk. Magical in places, quite magical - ditto Herefordshire

    You need to explore the UK a bit more
    I remember coming back from the (Candadian) rockies to Mull. Both majestic - Canada on a huge scale, Scotland on a more profound one, somehow.

    Both magnificent.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Leon said:

    France is a bigger country, with much grander scenery; but Britain is also beautiful, just in a different, quieter way

    And parts of the Hebrides are as epic and poetic as anywhere on earth. St Kilda is globally peerless. And Foula!

    Also Suffolk. Magical in places, quite magical - ditto Herefordshire

    You need to explore the UK a bit more
    To be fair, getting to either St Kilda or Foula is a bit of a mission.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,349
    edited June 2021
    IanB2 said:

    Our crooked system says hello.
    2014 - UKIP win Euro Elections under PR
    2015 - CON promising a referendum win GE under FPTP
    2016 - LEAVE win binary referendum
    2017 - CON & LAB promising to respect LEAVE vote poll 84% under FPTP
    May 2019 - BREXIT PARTY win Euros under PR
    Dec 2019 - CON ‘Get Brexit Done’ win 80 seat majority under FPTP

    Doesn’t it make you think the country wanted to leave the EU?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Leon said:

    A more upbeat story, which is needed


    "Four weeks ago, Bolton was described as "ground zero" of the Delta coronavirus variant in the UK. A month later cases are down by 30%. So how did they do it?

    "As children prepared to go back to school after the Easter holidays, something worrying was happening in Bolton, Greater Manchester."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-57425730

    Two words: Herd Immunity.

    The virus is filling in the bubbles where there isn't enough protection, but then running into a wall of herd immunity. This couldn't happen March 2020 or January.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Pulpstar said:

    UK 176,559 / 316,358

    Sub half a million. Not good enough for a thursday.

    Absolutely awful vax numbers.

    Beyond pisspoor.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,553
    edited June 2021
    Gordo's back with another book...all yours for £25.

    Seven Ways to Change the World: How to Fix the Most Pressing Problems We Face by Gordon Brown

    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2021/jun/10/seven-ways-to-change-the-world-by-gordon-brown-review-a-restless-search-for-answers

    And so is Ed...

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/10/thinking-big-labour-politics-radical-vision
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,280
    alex_ said:

    Change the guidance on AZ and the supply problem disappears.
    Actually it is implement the guidance as written.....

    "the JCVI has advised a preference for adults aged 30 to 39 without underlying health conditions to receive an alternative to the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine – where available and only if this does not cause substantial delays in being vaccinated."

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/jcvi-advises-on-covid-19-vaccine-for-people-aged-under-40

    If supply is an issue the official policy is surely already to use AZ.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,852
    Stocky said:

    "It's not Yellowstone but neither is it Iowa." Well - yes - and you kind of make my point for me. If you live in Iowa you can travel to Yellowstone. Or to New York, or to Florida, San Francisco or to Yosemite. No wonder many Americans don't feel the need to have passport.
    This is just a function of lockdown. We are trapped on our island so it does feel limiting - like you I am desperate to see the beaches of Portugal, the vineyards of the Rhone, the brasseries of Paris, the Dolomites soaring over the meadows, a trattoria in Trastevere....

    This will all open to us again, soon enough, and we will remember how lucky we are to live in Europe, where all this is on our doorstep - and we can hop there in an hour or two, and see any kind of scenery except desert (tho Spain comes close).

    People in America are five thousand miles at least from the marvels of Europe, Australia, even more

    Yet it is our backyard! - and in the meantime we have our own lovely, storied country, which is not without grave flaws but is always fascinating
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Its like they vaccinated a load of people or something.....now about that 5m doses doing nothing.
    And yet probably Bolton vaccination status is probably no better now, than vast swathes of the country. So if it was enough to stop the virus in its tracks there, how does it take serious hold elsewhere???

    Other places might rise rapidly up to 2-300 per 100 thousand (7 day average) and then hit the ceiling.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,592

    'The witch hunt has to stop!': Ex-England captain Michael Vaughan

    Says the man who said Ollie Robinson had to be dropped so he could go away and educate himself...about something he did 10 years ago.

    Yeah, but Ollie's not his mate, so it's completely different.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,349

    Sorry, just come back to this. It was a reliable source that told me that this is not bland advice, but edict, and a major maternity centre near me
    See how difficult it is to be believed when you push back against the woke?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,553
    edited June 2021

    Actually it is implement the guidance as written.....

    "the JCVI has advised a preference for adults aged 30 to 39 without underlying health conditions to receive an alternative to the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine – where available and only if this does not cause substantial delays in being vaccinated."

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/jcvi-advises-on-covid-19-vaccine-for-people-aged-under-40

    If supply is an issue the official policy is surely already to use AZ.
    It clearly isn't been used, as 5m doses are sitting in a warehouse doing nothing, while they struggle to do 500k jabs a day.

    Give the yuff the choice, you want a shot of AZN, you can come line up tomorrow at x. We will do as many as people turn up. If you want to wait, that's fine.

    The queues will be around the block by 8am....well maybe 11am....the kids don't often get out of bed that early.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,356
    Stocky said:

    Not a shithole but mediocre at best. Moribund.

    We have no natural wildernesses. Nowhere to escape urbanisation and farmland. No proper mountains to speak of. No decent rivers. No way of escaping other humans. Sea is freezing. We are too densely populated. No weather (or too much if you like).

    We have cities. That's true. London, Oxford and Cambridge are ace.

    I would rather have spent the last year in ... hmmm .... The States, Spain, France, Italy, Sweden, Norway, Canada, Switzerland - to name but a few.
    'We have no natural wildernesses. Nowhere to escape urbanisation and farmland. No proper mountains to speak of. No decent rivers. No way of escaping other humans. Sea is freezing. We are too densely populated. No weather (or too much if you like).'

    Most of that's available where I live, 2 or 3hr drive max.
    I'll give you sea is freezing.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,279
    Leon said:

    This is just a function of lockdown. We are trapped on our island so it does feel limiting - like you I am desperate to see the beaches of Portugal, the vineyards of the Rhone, the brasseries of Paris, the Dolomites soaring over the meadows, a trattoria in Trastevere....

    This will all open to us again, soon enough, and we will remember how lucky we are to live in Europe, where all this is on our doorstep - and we can hop there in an hour or two, and see any kind of scenery except desert (tho Spain comes close).

    People in America are five thousand miles at least from the marvels of Europe, Australia, even more

    Yet it is our backyard! - and in the meantime we have our own lovely, storied country, which is not without grave flaws but is always fascinating
    I know it's a function of lockdown! It is my backyard because of family ties - roots. And UK is good place to make money I think.

    I've always joked that I'm happy living somewhere a bit crap because getting away is so much more delicious. Unfortunately, that way of thinking is back-firing on me rather at the moment.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    alex_ said:

    And yet probably Bolton vaccination status is probably no better now, than vast swathes of the country. So if it was enough to stop the virus in its tracks there, how does it take serious hold elsewhere???

    Other places might rise rapidly up to 2-300 per 100 thousand (7 day average) and then hit the ceiling.
    Bolton's vaccination curve is not much different to the rest of the country in general https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations?areaType=ltla&areaName=Bolton
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Actually it is implement the guidance as written.....

    "the JCVI has advised a preference for adults aged 30 to 39 without underlying health conditions to receive an alternative to the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine – where available and only if this does not cause substantial delays in being vaccinated."

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/jcvi-advises-on-covid-19-vaccine-for-people-aged-under-40

    If supply is an issue the official policy is surely already to use AZ.
    Well quite.

    Probably someone, somewhere, is saying “well anything other than a total ban for U40s is just too “confusing”...

    Remember when medical decisions were supposed to be taken on the basis of judgement and balance of risks?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,793

    Two words: Herd Immunity.

    The virus is filling in the bubbles where there isn't enough protection, but then running into a wall of herd immunity. This couldn't happen March 2020 or January.
    Philip. Please stop talking bollox. You are obviously not a scientist. No serious scientist is using this term to describe where we are. We have reasons for cautious optimism, but we do not have herd immunity, or anywhere near it, yet.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    alex_ said:

    And yet probably Bolton vaccination status is probably no better now, than vast swathes of the country. So if it was enough to stop the virus in its tracks there, how does it take serious hold elsewhere???

    Other places might rise rapidly up to 2-300 per 100 thousand (7 day average) and then hit the ceiling.
    Yes, is there any reason why Bolton is sui generis, or can we reasonably expect other areas to follow a similar path?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,375

    There is a clear obvious problem with supply, while we also have a clear obvious problem with cases. And like anything with COVID, the longer you leave it, the worse the problem becomes very quickly.
    Worse than that.

    There's naff all we can do about supply that will have an effect quickly. We've got about 200k mRNA doses a day, which look like they're mostly being used for first doses on thirtysomethings.

    If you want to up the pace, you need to do two things-
    1 Tweak the guidance back to "actually, the benefits of AZ do outweigh the risks."
    2 Tweak the systems so that you can get the stockpiles out and into people.

    And even those will take time- to which you have to add the time it takes for AZ to work optimally.

    But both of those depend on a much harder thing-
    0 Acknowledge that there's a problem.

    The story the government's master story teller has told is of the brilliance of Independent Britain's Brilliant Vaccine Strategy. It's a good story, with a lot of truth in it. It's been a good strategy, but right now, not quite enough at the critical point.

    But everything to do with Covid operates on a delay. Which is why you have to anticipate, which appears not to have happened.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Are you doing one right now? I think he is!
    Naah, the East coast has always looked too boring for circumnavigation to appeal. That's probably rampant prejudice and it's absolutely fascinating out there.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    Leon said:

    No decent rivers?

    The swerving Wye at Tintern, the emerald Thames valley in Oxfordshire, the Teign tumbling across Dartmoor, the salmon-leaping Tweed in the Borders, the exquisite coves of the Fal in Cornwall, the dappled trout-fisheries of the Test, the mighty Tyne as it rolls under the bridge at Newcastle....

    No decent rivers! Pah
    All 1 and a bit km of the Morar
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Two words: Herd Immunity.

    The virus is filling in the bubbles where there isn't enough protection, but then running into a wall of herd immunity. This couldn't happen March 2020 or January.
    This does indeed require further analysis. Why? Interesting that the BBC has picked it up but I've not seen much elsewhere. Are any other areas following similar paths?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,553
    edited June 2021

    Worse than that.

    There's naff all we can do about supply that will have an effect quickly. We've got about 200k mRNA doses a day, which look like they're mostly being used for first doses on thirtysomethings.

    If you want to up the pace, you need to do two things-
    1 Tweak the guidance back to "actually, the benefits of AZ do outweigh the risks."
    2 Tweak the systems so that you can get the stockpiles out and into people.

    And even those will take time- to which you have to add the time it takes for AZ to work optimally.

    But both of those depend on a much harder thing-
    0 Acknowledge that there's a problem.

    The story the government's master story teller has told is of the brilliance of Independent Britain's Brilliant Vaccine Strategy. It's a good story, with a lot of truth in it. It's been a good strategy, but right now, not quite enough at the critical point.

    But everything to do with Covid operates on a delay. Which is why you have to anticipate, which appears not to have happened.
    The difference is obviously that the Indian variant has a base R0 of ~5-6. That completely shifts the balance. It now back to jab anybody anywhere anytime (and should have been a couple of weeks ago when it became clear the direction of travel).
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    alex_ said:

    And yet probably Bolton vaccination status is probably no better now, than vast swathes of the country. So if it was enough to stop the virus in its tracks there, how does it take serious hold elsewhere???

    Other places might rise rapidly up to 2-300 per 100 thousand (7 day average) and then hit the ceiling.
    Precisely.

    Some people think 'herd immunity' is a binary all or nothing that means that its impossible for cases to rise if we have it. Its not what its ever realistically meant, if it was then all viruses with herd immunity would end up with rapid total eradication.

    As a whole there is herd immunity across the adult population, but there are pockets were there isn't. So the virus can get into those pockets and burn through those pockets, but it can't exponentially rise for long because it burns out in that pocket and fails to find new hosts.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235

    Worse than that.

    There's naff all we can do about supply that will have an effect quickly. We've got about 200k mRNA doses a day, which look like they're mostly being used for first doses on thirtysomethings.

    If you want to up the pace, you need to do two things-
    1 Tweak the guidance back to "actually, the benefits of AZ do outweigh the risks."
    2 Tweak the systems so that you can get the stockpiles out and into people.

    And even those will take time- to which you have to add the time it takes for AZ to work optimally.

    But both of those depend on a much harder thing-
    0 Acknowledge that there's a problem.

    The story the government's master story teller has told is of the brilliance of Independent Britain's Brilliant Vaccine Strategy. It's a good story, with a lot of truth in it. It's been a good strategy, but right now, not quite enough at the critical point.

    But everything to do with Covid operates on a delay. Which is why you have to anticipate, which appears not to have happened.
    But everything to do with Covid operates on a delay.

    Particularly the Gov't changing tack.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,279

    All 1 and a bit km of the Morar
    I've just looked that up. looks interesting. That must be salt water, surely?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Philip. Please stop talking bollox. You are obviously not a scientist. No serious scientist is using this term to describe where we are. We have reasons for cautious optimism, but we do not have herd immunity, or anywhere near it, yet.
    Some scientists are using the term, but most "scientists" who are being quoted on the media ludicrously overcautious like Independent SAGE - or simply cautious like SAGE. If you're being cautious there's no reason to use the term, even if we're there, because you're trying to nudge people remaining to still take the vaccine - but that's spin not science.

    The CDC have spoken about a Herd Immunity Threshold of 75-80% and we're currently at 80% testing with antibodies.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,553
    Facebook said it will let all employees work remotely even after the pandemic if their jobs can be done out of an office, but may reduce their pay if they move to a less-expensive area

    That will go down like a bucket of cold sick.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    Leon said:

    Did you see that amazing Sam Harris quote on the Gervais podcast about the UFOS?!

    One of the most startling 2 minutes of audio I have ever encountered
    I did. I come from the position that Sam Harris is pretty likely to know some people with decent security clearance. Others said “ugh I don’t like that man, ergo he is lying to sell his next book”.

    Equally if someone like Douglas Murray was to have said it in the Uk, I think it would be worth listening to him, even if you are a wokist and disagree with him on other things.

    The real question now Leon, is not whether this will be out in the open by the next US election. I think that’s now almost certain. But in what regard it will be.

    It might be “gee, UFO’s are real after all. Wonder where they come from? Perhaps we’ll never know. Oh well let’s put the kettle on”.

    Then at the other end of the spectrum is the Israeli general last year with his “Galactic Federation” chat.

    If (capital I capital F) as Harry Reid seems to believe, the US deep state has physical material in its possession, I expect the basic revelation on the UFO reality to crack that open fairly quickly, with whistle blowers emerging. So if we don’t hear much else by 2024 then I think the US has shitall and it’s up to the Other Side whether we ever know more than we already do.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,553
    Trials of variant Ox/AZ vaccine are going well, Sarah Gilbert reveals. Team aiming to produce jabs which work well against multiple different variants.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/science/covid-variant-vaccine-in-trials-to-act-as-booster-against-all-new-strains-1044710
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    IanB2 said:

    I agree with you. But Britain’s appeal lies in being mostly harmless, like the Earth in Hitchhikers. There isnt so much of the wow factor that you get in Venice or the Alps or Yellowstone or New York or Norway, but you have a lot of charmingly pleasant and inoffensive countryside.
    I find, for example, the north coast of Cornwall in a storm every bit as stunning as Venice or the Alps, just in a different way.

    It is funny you should say that Britain has no wow factor. I used to think that. But 1 year living in the general brownness of Yemen, and then to land at Heathrow in early May with everything in full spring green. Now that is a wow factor if you are not used to it.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    Stocky said:

    I've just looked that up. looks interesting. That must be salt water, surely?
    Don't think its fully tidal as it had rapids/waterfall just before the estuary.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,375

    The difference is obviously that the Indian variant has a base R0 of ~5-6. That completely shifts the balance. It now back to jab anybody anywhere anytime (and should have been a couple of weeks ago when it became clear the direction of travel).
    Agreed. But that's the trouble with putting a Master Story Teller in charge (isn't that also Jeffrey Archer's self-description?)

    The story is that everything's going swimmingly, we'll beat Jerry to the sunlounger et cetera. The possibility that vaccination isn't quite going well enough, or that a nasty variant has made its way into the UK, aren't really part of that story. Besides, both of those would lead to, let's say, tricky questions for the PM.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    @Nigel_Foremain here you go, serious scientists saying that Britain achieved herd immunity two months ago: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/07/exclusive-britain-will-pass-covid-herd-immunity-threshold-monday/

    Not just me. But the Zero Covid Independent SAGE zealots get a lot more media attention than those scientists saying that we have herd immunity, so I'm not surprised at your mistake in thinking it was just me.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,487
    Mr. Urquhart, if that's legal, countries should bring in legislation to ban people being paid different rates depending on where they live.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538

    Mr. Urquhart, if that's legal, countries should bring in legislation to ban people being paid different rates depending on where they live.

    London weighting says hello...
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,793
    isam said:

    2014 - UKIP win Euro Elections under PR
    2015 - CON promising a referendum win GE under FPTP
    2016 - LEAVE win binary referendum
    2017 - CON & LAB promising to respect LEAVE vote poll 84% under FPTP
    May 2019 - BREXIT PARTY win Euros under PR
    Dec 2019 - CON ‘Get Brexit Done’ win 80 seat majority under FPTP

    Doesn’t it make you think the country wanted to leave the EU?
    Full marks for the data manipulation and bias. Vladimir has a job for you.

    As a counterpoint, here is a bit of bias of my own in the form of a question: What percentage of the total population who could vote voted Leave in the referendum?

    It is a rhetorical question, so you don't need to answer as I already know it.

    Seriously though, people need to move on on the question of Brexit. To those of us that lost the argument, we need to shut up and move on.

    For those of you that "won" you need to shut up as well. You claim to be patriots, but patriots should seek to unite, not to divide.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Facebook said it will let all employees work remotely even after the pandemic if their jobs can be done out of an office, but may reduce their pay if they move to a less-expensive area

    That will go down like a bucket of cold sick.

    Register a PO Box in California as your address.
    Move somewhere cheap.
    Use a VPN.
    Profit.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235

    @Nigel_Foremain here you go, serious scientists saying that Britain achieved herd immunity two months ago: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/07/exclusive-britain-will-pass-covid-herd-immunity-threshold-monday/

    Not just me. But the Zero Covid Independent SAGE zealots get a lot more media attention than those scientists saying that we have herd immunity, so I'm not surprised at your mistake in thinking it was just me.

    We're not at herd immunity for delta the Indian variant. Lever edge might be locally mind.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,553
    edited June 2021
    Is this legit? Talk about playing the race card....

    From a mass email the editor of National Geographic sent out

    https://twitter.com/roddreher/status/1401806727918542851?s=20

    Now it isn't good enough to put your pronouns in your twitter bio, you have to sign off an email with your race card...
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,333

    Agreed. But that's the trouble with putting a Master Story Teller in charge (isn't that also Jeffrey Archer's self-description?)

    The most acute political commentary on Trump I ever read was by Cher who said, "Donald Trump's punishment is being Donald Trump."

    The same is true of Johnson. He has to exist in an increasingly elaborate fabricated reality.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,247
    edited June 2021

    Facebook said it will let all employees work remotely even after the pandemic if their jobs can be done out of an office, but may reduce their pay if they move to a less-expensive area

    That will go down like a bucket of cold sick.

    London calling, London calling.....

    To all those who expected WFH to be roses, roses all the way - I Told You So, You F&*king Fools.

    "With WFH we can employ people who live in the bits of the UK where you can buy houses BOGOF for £500. So we expect our staff to live there and get paid accordingly"
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,553

    Register a PO Box in California as your address.
    Move somewhere cheap.
    Use a VPN.
    Profit.
    I think Facebook might ask for a bit more proof of your residency....and the IRS and state tax officials would also take a keen interest.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,487
    Mr. 86, is that not based on the location of the job, not the home?

    Anyway, I have to be off.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746

    @Nigel_Foremain here you go, serious scientists saying that Britain achieved herd immunity two months ago: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/07/exclusive-britain-will-pass-covid-herd-immunity-threshold-monday/

    Not just me. But the Zero Covid Independent SAGE zealots get a lot more media attention than those scientists saying that we have herd immunity, so I'm not surprised at your mistake in thinking it was just me.

    Ironically the scientist making that claim, Karl Friston, is on Cosplay SAGE.

    https://www.independentsage.org/who-are-independent-sage/
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151
    An "outbreak" of the rare viral infection monkeypox has been detected in north Wales

    https://www.itv.com/news/2021-06-10/monkeypox-outbreak-in-north-wales-as-two-treated-for-rare-viral-infection
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Full marks for the data manipulation and bias. Vladimir has a job for you.

    As a counterpoint, here is a bit of bias of my own in the form of a question: What percentage of the total population who could vote voted Leave in the referendum?

    It is a rhetorical question, so you don't need to answer as I already know it.

    Seriously though, people need to move on on the question of Brexit. To those of us that lost the argument, we need to shut up and move on.

    For those of you that "won" you need to shut up as well. You claim to be patriots, but patriots should seek to unite, not to divide.

    What unity was there when Lisbon was passed without a referendum despite the government's manifesto promising to do otherwise?
    What unity was there when half of Britain's rebate was pissed away on an EU promise to reform CAP, that was then reneged on?
    Did Thatcher seek unity with the miners?
    Did Cameron seek unity with those opposed to gay marriage?
    Did Blair seek unity with those supporting Section 28?

    Politics isn't about unity, its about making decisions and having debates. Those who lose the argument can either accept it and move on, which results in unity, or bitterly oppose it and keep fighting which makes unity impossible. It isn't on the winners to seek unity, though its popular to say that you're trying to.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,349
    #OnThisDay 1975: The writer Jan Morris talked about her autobiography Conundrum and her gender reassignment.

    "I think it's a magical thing that's happened to me."

    https://twitter.com/bbcarchive/status/1402980115609526272?s=21
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005

    It clearly isn't been used, as 5m doses are sitting in a warehouse doing nothing, while they struggle to do 500k jabs a day.

    Give the yuff the choice, you want a shot of AZN, you can come line up tomorrow at x. We will do as many as people turn up. If you want to wait, that's fine.

    The queues will be around the block by 8am....well maybe 11am....the kids don't often get out of bed that early.
    The supply issue is that we don't have enough Pfizer/Moderna to jab the under 30s quickly. The message now through various sources is that if you've had AZ more than 4 weeks ago then you can practically just turn up and get your 2nd jab. I had my first AZ 6 weeks ago, I am booked to have my 2nd in 2 weeks. However, my local main vaccination centre has sent out a message saying that on Friday and Saturday if you had AZ more than 4 weeks ago you can just turn up and get your 2nd jab. I think I might go for it.

    The JCVI needs to re-work its guidance based on the current situation. Right now AZ in the arms of the under 30s is far more beneficial than it sat in a giant fridge. Like Francis says, offer the under 30s to just turn up and get jabbed with AZ. They can make an informed choice. Risks of a blood clot are less than going on a long haul flight.

    Matt Hancock ought to be doing this today instead of sat in front of a select committee talking about what he should have done with the benefit of hindsight over a year ago. I'm still not convinced that we have a big issue but we ought to be jabbing as fast as we can and not be held back by some tiny risks.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,280

    Trials of variant Ox/AZ vaccine are going well, Sarah Gilbert reveals. Team aiming to produce jabs which work well against multiple different variants.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/science/covid-variant-vaccine-in-trials-to-act-as-booster-against-all-new-strains-1044710

    Will be used as another reason to keep us locked up for six months to get the boosters done.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,793

    @Nigel_Foremain here you go, serious scientists saying that Britain achieved herd immunity two months ago: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/07/exclusive-britain-will-pass-covid-herd-immunity-threshold-monday/

    Not just me. But the Zero Covid Independent SAGE zealots get a lot more media attention than those scientists saying that we have herd immunity, so I'm not surprised at your mistake in thinking it was just me.

    haha, that "reliable journalistic source", the DT. Your gullibility index just went up again Philip. I can't read the article because I won't subscribe to that erstwhile quality newspaper.

    Here is an article in terms that you can understand from a news source that is a little less up the bum hole of Boris Johnson: https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-why-the-uk-is-still-some-way-short-of-herd-immunity-despite-impressive-vaccine-rollout-12328512

    Find something you do know something about to pronounce on Philip. It definitely is not science. Do you have any hobbies beyond key board warrioring?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    I think Facebook might ask for a bit more proof of your residency....and the IRS and state tax officials would also take a keen interest.
    It was a joke. :)
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814

    Doesn't mean that they all have Covid. Only takes one child to test positive for an entire year group "bubble" to be sent home.
    With apologies to Cyclefree’s daughter. But by a mile of the remaining “NPI”, the one which needs to go above all others with the highest priority is the asymptomatic testing in schools. We have reached the point where covid tests should be used to guide treatment of serious cases, not as an excuse to quarantine school kids.

    Unless the government are telling us that covid is now dangerous in kids. In which case license a vaccine for them and if necessary, pause all other vaccinations until kids are done. It’s inexcusable to still be disrupting kids education any longer.
This discussion has been closed.