“Probability factor of one to one. We have normality. I repeat: we have normality. Anything you stil

alex_ said:

Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?

ClippP said:

DavidL said:

I left school at the age of 16, at the end of year 5 in Scotland, and started University a week after my 17th birthday. I was bored of school by then and when I went to University they gave me a grant (those were the days) and a student Union card which allowed me to buy drink in most establishments (ditto).

I was, with hindsight, probably too young and too immature to make the best use of my first year but I was seriously bored of school and really wanted to do something else.

I don't think that I was that atypical. Many people, including those even less academically inclined than me, do not enjoy school and show precious little commitment to it. At the moment most of these end up doing some largely pointless college course which often reduces their employability given the very poor habits that college inculcates (poor attendance, no reward for effort (since everyone passes) and far too much downtime). I seriously question whether such people would benefit at all from 2 more years of compulsory schooling.

I am rather more taken with the argument that we start formal learning a bit soon but even if we accept that argument has merit I do not think that we should be adding years to the other end.

Good thread header though, thanks Richard.

But what is Scottish education like, Mr L. I suspect it is similar to the French and the American style - very mechanical, lots of rote learning and not much imagination and creativity - in fact very similar to what Gove and his evil genius did their best to impose on England.

If that is the case, I am not surprised that pupils there get bored very quickly.

williamglenn said:

"Joanna Cherry QC @joannaccherry

I’ve resigned from the NEC of @theSNP. A number of factors have prevented me from fulfilling the mandate party members gave me to improve transparency & scrutiny & to uphold the party’s constitution. I won’t be making any further comment at this stage."

https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1399394596371763207

felix said:

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
1m
Westminster Voting Intention (31 May):

Conservative 45% (+2)
Labour 34% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 8% (-2)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Green 5% (–)
Other 5% (-1)

Changes +/- 24 May

Follow @redfieldwilton
to see our VI first

ClippP said:

DavidL said:

I left school at the age of 16, at the end of year 5 in Scotland, and started University a week after my 17th birthday. I was bored of school by then and when I went to University they gave me a grant (those were the days) and a student Union card which allowed me to buy drink in most establishments (ditto).

I was, with hindsight, probably too young and too immature to make the best use of my first year but I was seriously bored of school and really wanted to do something else.

I don't think that I was that atypical. Many people, including those even less academically inclined than me, do not enjoy school and show precious little commitment to it. At the moment most of these end up doing some largely pointless college course which often reduces their employability given the very poor habits that college inculcates (poor attendance, no reward for effort (since everyone passes) and far too much downtime). I seriously question whether such people would benefit at all from 2 more years of compulsory schooling.

I am rather more taken with the argument that we start formal learning a bit soon but even if we accept that argument has merit I do not think that we should be adding years to the other end.

Good thread header though, thanks Richard.

But what is Scottish education like, Mr L. I suspect it is similar to the French and the American style - very mechanical, lots of rote learning and not much imagination and creativity - in fact very similar to what Gove and his evil genius did their best to impose on England.

If that is the case, I am not surprised that pupils there get bored very quickly.

Sandpit said:

williamglenn said:

"Joanna Cherry QC @joannaccherry

I’ve resigned from the NEC of @theSNP. A number of factors have prevented me from fulfilling the mandate party members gave me to improve transparency & scrutiny & to uphold the party’s constitution. I won’t be making any further comment at this stage."

https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1399394596371763207

How many resignations is that now?

Just a feeling, but I reckon there might be something not quite right with the accounts this year...

alex_ said:

Leon said:

alex_ said:

Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?

Preposterously weak - as he later sorta admits

There are hundreds of explanations as to why it got out of the lab but they didn't realise.

A bat was taken to the market to be sold
A mouse escaped?
A human got it but felt nothing, but spread it anyway (many cases are asymptomatic)
Someone got it and spread it and kept it quiet
Someone from the lab coughed on a mango in the market: looks like the market
The lab lied
China lied
Millions died


The easiest rebuttal from all this is the words of the lab director, Shi Zhengli, the bat lady

When she first heard about coronavirus, she says "my initial thought was 'It must have come from my lab' so I rushed back to check"

If that was her FIRST reaction it means a lab leak was highly plausible, from the start. The hypothesis should never have been dismissed

That’s an easy rebuttal to the argument that a lab leak wasn’t possible or plausible. Less of a rebuttal to the argument put that the poor response indicates that the Chinese didn’t realise (on the basis, whether you agree or not that they would/should have done).

And a mouse escaping with it doesn’t indicate anything - in that case it would still have to make the jump to humans.

Fysics_Teacher said:

Sandpit said:

williamglenn said:

"Joanna Cherry QC @joannaccherry

I’ve resigned from the NEC of @theSNP. A number of factors have prevented me from fulfilling the mandate party members gave me to improve transparency & scrutiny & to uphold the party’s constitution. I won’t be making any further comment at this stage."

https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1399394596371763207

How many resignations is that now?

Just a feeling, but I reckon there might be something not quite right with the accounts this year...

I thought people were just reposting the same resignation several times...

alex_ said:

Leon said:

alex_ said:

Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?

Preposterously weak - as he later sorta admits

There are hundreds of explanations as to why it got out of the lab but they didn't realise.

A bat was taken to the market to be sold
A mouse escaped?
A human got it but felt nothing, but spread it anyway (many cases are asymptomatic)
Someone got it and spread it and kept it quiet
Someone from the lab coughed on a mango in the market: looks like the market
The lab lied
China lied
Millions died


The easiest rebuttal from all this is the words of the lab director, Shi Zhengli, the bat lady

When she first heard about coronavirus, she says "my initial thought was 'It must have come from my lab' so I rushed back to check"

If that was her FIRST reaction it means a lab leak was highly plausible, from the start. The hypothesis should never have been dismissed

Incidentally for all that you are clearly right that the lab leak theory should never have been so quickly dismissed, and is clearly prima facile plausible if not, at least, circumstantial likely, it sounds to me that you are descending to the other extreme - that anything other than a lab leak is extremely unlikely. Which given that you are still basing virtually everything on circumstantial evidence and alleged “secret” intelligence, is equally too big a jump IMO.

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

AnExileinD4 said:

rcs1000 said:

Yesterday, Israel has just five new covid cases.

I felt it was important to share that statistic, because (a) they are only a little more vaccinated than we are, and (b) are now when welcoming tourists (assuming they are double vaccinated).

Is the Israeli public keen on a range of continuing restrictions?

Does the Israeli media go out of its way to have the local equivalent of Fake SAGE on permanent repeat?

Do scientists advising the Israeli government continually give their own opinions (differing from consensus guidance) “on a personal basis”?

Are behaviours with respect to COVID really quite so politicised? “We must do this to own Netanyahu”?

It’s interesting to note that Israel has done very few vaccinations since about the middle of April. They’re stuck at about 80% of the adult population. Overtaken now by UAE overall, where it’s becoming increasingly difficult to live and work without being jabbed.

I presume bulk of those are Haredi Jews refusing to take it? They make up about 15% of the population.

That’s my understanding, yes. Orthodox Jews quite anti-vax.

Leon said:

alex_ said:

Leon said:

alex_ said:

Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?

Preposterously weak - as he later sorta admits

There are hundreds of explanations as to why it got out of the lab but they didn't realise.

A bat was taken to the market to be sold
A mouse escaped?
A human got it but felt nothing, but spread it anyway (many cases are asymptomatic)
Someone got it and spread it and kept it quiet
Someone from the lab coughed on a mango in the market: looks like the market
The lab lied
China lied
Millions died


The easiest rebuttal from all this is the words of the lab director, Shi Zhengli, the bat lady

When she first heard about coronavirus, she says "my initial thought was 'It must have come from my lab' so I rushed back to check"

If that was her FIRST reaction it means a lab leak was highly plausible, from the start. The hypothesis should never have been dismissed

Incidentally for all that you are clearly right that the lab leak theory should never have been so quickly dismissed, and is clearly prima facile plausible if not, at least, circumstantial likely, it sounds to me that you are descending to the other extreme - that anything other than a lab leak is extremely unlikely. Which given that you are still basing virtually everything on circumstantial evidence and alleged “secret” intelligence, is equally too big a jump IMO.

I'm not dismissing anything. I have a strong personal hunch that the lab is responsible, because the circumstantial evidence is now very persuasive. And, despite a lot of research - 80,000 animals tested - we have zero evidence, apart from "precedent", for natural zoonosis. It is hugely in China's interest to find an animal culprit but they haven't managed it

But if you asked me to put actual odds on it I'd say 70% lab, 30% animals outside the lab

Both should be investigated, clearly

Big_G_NorthWales said:

felix said:

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
1m
Westminster Voting Intention (31 May):

Conservative 45% (+2)
Labour 34% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 8% (-2)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Green 5% (–)
Other 5% (-1)

Changes +/- 24 May

Follow @redfieldwilton
to see our VI first

Interesting

Only Opinuim showing a Cummings effect

rcs1000 said:

alex_ said:

Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?

To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.

The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)

GIN1138 said:

felix said:

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
1m
Westminster Voting Intention (31 May):

Conservative 45% (+2)
Labour 34% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 8% (-2)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Green 5% (–)
Other 5% (-1)

Changes +/- 24 May

Follow @redfieldwilton
to see our VI first

Seems a bizarre time to release in opinion poll?

IshmaelZ said:

rcs1000 said:

alex_ said:

Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?

To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.

The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)

Doesn't rule out deliberate development but accidental release.

Fysics_Teacher said:

ClippP said:

DavidL said:

I left school at the age of 16, at the end of year 5 in Scotland, and started University a week after my 17th birthday. I was bored of school by then and when I went to University they gave me a grant (those were the days) and a student Union card which allowed me to buy drink in most establishments (ditto).

I was, with hindsight, probably too young and too immature to make the best use of my first year but I was seriously bored of school and really wanted to do something else.

I don't think that I was that atypical. Many people, including those even less academically inclined than me, do not enjoy school and show precious little commitment to it. At the moment most of these end up doing some largely pointless college course which often reduces their employability given the very poor habits that college inculcates (poor attendance, no reward for effort (since everyone passes) and far too much downtime). I seriously question whether such people would benefit at all from 2 more years of compulsory schooling.

I am rather more taken with the argument that we start formal learning a bit soon but even if we accept that argument has merit I do not think that we should be adding years to the other end.

Good thread header though, thanks Richard.

But what is Scottish education like, Mr L. I suspect it is similar to the French and the American style - very mechanical, lots of rote learning and not much imagination and creativity - in fact very similar to what Gove and his evil genius did their best to impose on England.

If that is the case, I am not surprised that pupils there get bored very quickly.

I friend of mine at Oxford had left school in Scotland at 15. He graduated with a first in maths at 18, so I got the impression that Scotland’s education system had to be pretty good...

FrancisUrquhart said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

felix said:

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
1m
Westminster Voting Intention (31 May):

Conservative 45% (+2)
Labour 34% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 8% (-2)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Green 5% (–)
Other 5% (-1)

Changes +/- 24 May

Follow @redfieldwilton
to see our VI first

Interesting

Only Opinuim showing a Cummings effect

It didn't really even show a Cummings effect, it showed a difference in the Labour number (in their polling, Labour had shot up at the expense on other left of centre parties). T

he Tory number was still well into the 40s....42-45% is the consistent Tory number since the vaccine bounce.

Its the Labour number that is all over the place, somewhere between 28% and 36%.

DavidL said:

Sandpit said:

williamglenn said:

"Joanna Cherry QC @joannaccherry

I’ve resigned from the NEC of @theSNP. A number of factors have prevented me from fulfilling the mandate party members gave me to improve transparency & scrutiny & to uphold the party’s constitution. I won’t be making any further comment at this stage."

https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1399394596371763207

How many resignations is that now?

Just a feeling, but I reckon there might be something not quite right with the accounts this year...

Slightly surprised that she did not join Alba tbh. But in most organisations the Treasurer resigning because he was not allowed sight of the books would raise an eyebrow or two.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

felix said:

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
1m
Westminster Voting Intention (31 May):

Conservative 45% (+2)
Labour 34% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 8% (-2)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Green 5% (–)
Other 5% (-1)

Changes +/- 24 May

Follow @redfieldwilton
to see our VI first

Interesting

Only Opinuim showing a Cummings effect

Andy_JS said:

"UK reports one COVID-related death and 3,383 new cases in latest figures

England has recorded zero daily deaths for just the fifth time since the government started collecting the figures."

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-reports-one-covid-related-death-and-3-383-new-cases-in-latest-figures-12321589

Fysics_Teacher said:

Sandpit said:

williamglenn said:

"Joanna Cherry QC @joannaccherry

I’ve resigned from the NEC of @theSNP. A number of factors have prevented me from fulfilling the mandate party members gave me to improve transparency & scrutiny & to uphold the party’s constitution. I won’t be making any further comment at this stage."

https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1399394596371763207

How many resignations is that now?

Just a feeling, but I reckon there might be something not quite right with the accounts this year...

I thought people were just reposting the same resignation several times...

Pulpstar said:

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

AnExileinD4 said:

rcs1000 said:

Yesterday, Israel has just five new covid cases.

I felt it was important to share that statistic, because (a) they are only a little more vaccinated than we are, and (b) are now when welcoming tourists (assuming they are double vaccinated).

Is the Israeli public keen on a range of continuing restrictions?

Does the Israeli media go out of its way to have the local equivalent of Fake SAGE on permanent repeat?

Do scientists advising the Israeli government continually give their own opinions (differing from consensus guidance) “on a personal basis”?

Are behaviours with respect to COVID really quite so politicised? “We must do this to own Netanyahu”?

It’s interesting to note that Israel has done very few vaccinations since about the middle of April. They’re stuck at about 80% of the adult population. Overtaken now by UAE overall, where it’s becoming increasingly difficult to live and work without being jabbed.

I presume bulk of those are Haredi Jews refusing to take it? They make up about 15% of the population.

That’s my understanding, yes. Orthodox Jews quite anti-vax.

How many children are there in the UAE ?
Loads in Israel. Not sure if they've started 12+ tho

tlg86 said:

rcs1000 said:

alex_ said:

Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?

To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.

The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)

On that last point, it depends what the aim was. Would an evil state care about killing off a few thousand of its own people if it could cause huge disruption to the Western world?

I don’t think it’s likely that it was deliberate, but COVID has very much been in the sweet spot of being deadly enough to cause serious headaches for governments but not so deadly as to scare people into locking themselves away.

Black_Rook said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

felix said:

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
1m
Westminster Voting Intention (31 May):

Conservative 45% (+2)
Labour 34% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 8% (-2)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Green 5% (–)
Other 5% (-1)

Changes +/- 24 May

Follow @redfieldwilton
to see our VI first

Interesting

Only Opinuim showing a Cummings effect

This assumes that such an effect existed, and that particular set of values wasn't simply a statistical outlier.

Andy_JS said:

"UK reports one COVID-related death and 3,383 new cases in latest figures

England has recorded zero daily deaths for just the fifth time since the government started collecting the figures."

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-reports-one-covid-related-death-and-3-383-new-cases-in-latest-figures-12321589

Meanwhile, the panic flapping and screeching about the Indian variant continues to intensify. The fact that nearly half of the adult population, including the vast bulk of the most vulnerable, have already been double jabbed counts for nothing. Once again, the more widespread the coverage afforded by the vaccines becomes, the more useless they are claimed to be.

rcs1000 said:

IshmaelZ said:

rcs1000 said:

alex_ said:

Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?

To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.

The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)

Doesn't rule out deliberate development but accidental release.

It does not.

However, many of the people pushing the deliberate design hypothesis seem ignorant of basic science - such as the "scientist" quoted in the Daily Mail article yesterday (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9629563/Chinese-scientists-created-COVID-19-lab-tried-cover-tracks-new-study-claims.html) which contains the following line:

'The laws of physics mean that you cannot have four positively charged amino acids in a row. The only way you can get this is if you artificially manufacture it,' Dalgleish told DailyMail.com.

Which is simply not true.

Ignoring the fact that if the laws of physics prevent it, then you probably can't do it in a lab, the reality is that nature (and the human body itself) is chock full of four positively charged amino acids in a row.

CV19's genome is 96% the same as an existing bat virus. It's possible that the other 4% is man made. But the reality is that new diseases cross the animal-human barrier all the time, and 96% the same as something we have already seen is pretty much par for the course. If it was 75%, that would be amazing, but 96% is slap bang in the middle of normal variations

There are lots of possibles here: it's possible that 100 different bat viruses escaped the lab, and the reason this one survived is because it was the most transmissible.

It's also entirely possible that this virus crossed the animal-human barrier somewhere else, and Wuhan was just unlucky.

But those people who know about virology and amino acids seem to be a lot more sceptical of the "designed" theory than you.

Fysics_Teacher said:

DavidL said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

ClippP said:

DavidL said:

I left school at the age of 16, at the end of year 5 in Scotland, and started University a week after my 17th birthday. I was bored of school by then and when I went to University they gave me a grant (those were the days) and a student Union card which allowed me to buy drink in most establishments (ditto).

I was, with hindsight, probably too young and too immature to make the best use of my first year but I was seriously bored of school and really wanted to do something else.

I don't think that I was that atypical. Many people, including those even less academically inclined than me, do not enjoy school and show precious little commitment to it. At the moment most of these end up doing some largely pointless college course which often reduces their employability given the very poor habits that college inculcates (poor attendance, no reward for effort (since everyone passes) and far too much downtime). I seriously question whether such people would benefit at all from 2 more years of compulsory schooling.

I am rather more taken with the argument that we start formal learning a bit soon but even if we accept that argument has merit I do not think that we should be adding years to the other end.

Good thread header though, thanks Richard.

But what is Scottish education like, Mr L. I suspect it is similar to the French and the American style - very mechanical, lots of rote learning and not much imagination and creativity - in fact very similar to what Gove and his evil genius did their best to impose on England.

If that is the case, I am not surprised that pupils there get bored very quickly.

I friend of mine at Oxford had left school in Scotland at 15. He graduated with a first in maths at 18, so I got the impression that Scotland’s education system had to be pretty good...

I think that he may have just been a tad exceptional... As a sample size that was probably less than optimal.

You mean not everyone in Scotland gets a first in maths?

Andy_JS said:

Leon said:

rcs1000 said:

alex_ said:

Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?

To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.

The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)

Except, we also KNOW THIS for a fact:

On 23 January the CCP quarantined all of Wuhan and Hubei, because they knew they were dealing with a lethal new respiratory virus. They stopped anyone travelling out of the killzone, to other parts of China.

And yet at the same time China kept international flights OPEN, and vigorously fought against any closures of air routes in and out of China.

They must have KNOWN they were seeding this terrible virus around the world. They did it deliberately, there can't be any other explanation. If China was going to suffer, every other country would also suffer.

What is that if not bio-warfare by civilian means?

This is true WHATEVER the origin of the virus. It is amazing it has not gained more attention

"There is new evidence to show that China locked down all domestic traffic internally by end January 2020 but pushed to open foreign travel till end March. Data from Tom Tom traffic index, a traffic location site that covers 416 cities across 57 countries show that as a result of this strategy, China, intentionally or otherwise, was able to lockdown its cities unknown to the world. While this reduced the spread of the Corona virus within China, China’s aggressive foreign travel policy lead to a virus explosion worldwide."


https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/blogs/Whathappensif/how-china-locked-down-internally-for-covid-19-but-pushed-foreign-travel/

Western governments seem to be obsessed with the idea that they might be accused of being "racist" as far as China is concerned, which seems bizarre in the circumstances.

Leon said:

alex_ said:

Leon said:

alex_ said:

Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?

Preposterously weak - as he later sorta admits

There are hundreds of explanations as to why it got out of the lab but they didn't realise.

A bat was taken to the market to be sold
A mouse escaped?
A human got it but felt nothing, but spread it anyway (many cases are asymptomatic)
Someone got it and spread it and kept it quiet
Someone from the lab coughed on a mango in the market: looks like the market
The lab lied
China lied
Millions died


The easiest rebuttal from all this is the words of the lab director, Shi Zhengli, the bat lady

When she first heard about coronavirus, she says "my initial thought was 'It must have come from my lab' so I rushed back to check"

If that was her FIRST reaction it means a lab leak was highly plausible, from the start. The hypothesis should never have been dismissed

Incidentally for all that you are clearly right that the lab leak theory should never have been so quickly dismissed, and is clearly prima facile plausible if not, at least, circumstantial likely, it sounds to me that you are descending to the other extreme - that anything other than a lab leak is extremely unlikely. Which given that you are still basing virtually everything on circumstantial evidence and alleged “secret” intelligence, is equally too big a jump IMO.

I'm not dismissing anything. I have a strong personal hunch that the lab is responsible, because the circumstantial evidence is now very persuasive. And, despite a lot of research - 80,000 animals tested - we have zero evidence, apart from "precedent", for natural zoonosis. It is hugely in China's interest to find an animal culprit but they haven't managed it

But if you asked me to put actual odds on it I'd say 70% lab, 30% animals outside the lab

Both should be investigated, clearly

squareroot2 said:

Black_Rook said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

felix said:

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
1m
Westminster Voting Intention (31 May):

Conservative 45% (+2)
Labour 34% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 8% (-2)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Green 5% (–)
Other 5% (-1)

Changes +/- 24 May

Follow @redfieldwilton
to see our VI first

Interesting

Only Opinuim showing a Cummings effect

This assumes that such an effect existed, and that particular set of values wasn't simply a statistical outlier.

Andy_JS said:

"UK reports one COVID-related death and 3,383 new cases in latest figures

England has recorded zero daily deaths for just the fifth time since the government started collecting the figures."

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-reports-one-covid-related-death-and-3-383-new-cases-in-latest-figures-12321589

Meanwhile, the panic flapping and screeching about the Indian variant continues to intensify. The fact that nearly half of the adult population, including the vast bulk of the most vulnerable, have already been double jabbed counts for nothing. Once again, the more widespread the coverage afforded by the vaccines becomes, the more useless they are claimed to be.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

felix said:

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
1m
Westminster Voting Intention (31 May):

Conservative 45% (+2)
Labour 34% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 8% (-2)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Green 5% (–)
Other 5% (-1)

Changes +/- 24 May

Follow @redfieldwilton
to see our VI first

Interesting

Only Opinuim showing a Cummings effect

It didn't really even show a Cummings effect, it showed a difference in the Labour number (in their polling, Labour had shot up at the expense on other left of centre parties). T

he Tory number was still well into the 40s....42-45% is the consistent Tory number since the vaccine bounce.

Its the Labour number that is all over the place, somewhere between 28% and 36%.

Yes, the conservatives dropped 2 to (42%) but lib dems and greens also dropped 2

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

rcs1000 said:

alex_ said:

Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?

To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.

The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)

Big difference for me between Lab Theory Study Accident and Lab Theory Deliberate Weapon. The latter smells a bit 'yellow peril' and fu manchu. But the less lurid proposition is worth taking seriously from what I read.

So Lab Accident is OK because you've decided it's no longer racist, but Weaponised Virus is not OK because it is, still, according to you, "racist"

Has it occurred to you that assessing the various possible sources a of pandemic on the basis of whether they are "racist" or not is just bewilderingly stupid, and is one of the reasons we dismissed a highly plausible thesis for a year

Black_Rook said:

alex_ said:

Pulpstar said:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/may/29/health-experts-urge-caution-on-giving-covid-vaccines-to-uk-children

These "health experts" can seriously fuck off. Covid can be rough for anyone past puberty tbh and we will achieve the greatest herd effect if we vax 12+

The experts seem to be simultaneously cautioning against vaccinating children whilst invoking alleged dangers to children (see Christine Pagel meltdown on her Twitter feed) as reasons to not lift restrictions

All the perfectly legitimate questions that Professor Finn and others have raised over the vaccination of children revolve entirely around the fact that they themselves are at vanishing low risk from becoming seriously ill with Covid-19. The most recent NHS England hospital statistics state that 40 people aged from 0-19 have died of Covid-19 in English hospitals during the entire pandemic, which implies a grand total for the UK of no more than about 50. If you couple that fact with the very high level of complete vaccination coverage in all the most vulnerable societal groups, then there has to be a serious question about whether or not the very small risk to children from receiving the vaccines outweighs the even smaller risk of their being seriously harmed by the virus.

This is an entirely separate issue from hyperbolic bellyaching over keeping society locked down til God alone knows when to protect minuscule numbers of children from the risk of serious illness. That's just another in the list of contrived excuses for not letting go of the security blanket of restrictions.

Sandpit said:

Andy_JS said:

Leon said:

rcs1000 said:

alex_ said:

Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?

To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.

The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)

Except, we also KNOW THIS for a fact:

On 23 January the CCP quarantined all of Wuhan and Hubei, because they knew they were dealing with a lethal new respiratory virus. They stopped anyone travelling out of the killzone, to other parts of China.

And yet at the same time China kept international flights OPEN, and vigorously fought against any closures of air routes in and out of China.

They must have KNOWN they were seeding this terrible virus around the world. They did it deliberately, there can't be any other explanation. If China was going to suffer, every other country would also suffer.

What is that if not bio-warfare by civilian means?

This is true WHATEVER the origin of the virus. It is amazing it has not gained more attention

"There is new evidence to show that China locked down all domestic traffic internally by end January 2020 but pushed to open foreign travel till end March. Data from Tom Tom traffic index, a traffic location site that covers 416 cities across 57 countries show that as a result of this strategy, China, intentionally or otherwise, was able to lockdown its cities unknown to the world. While this reduced the spread of the Corona virus within China, China’s aggressive foreign travel policy lead to a virus explosion worldwide."


https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/blogs/Whathappensif/how-china-locked-down-internally-for-covid-19-but-pushed-foreign-travel/

Western governments seem to be obsessed with the idea that they might be accused of being "racist" as far as China is concerned, which seems bizarre in the circumstances.

It’s more basic than that - it’s all about the money, and the Chinese are really quick to cancel anyone from the West who offends them.

See the NBA, and this week’s bizzare apology from actor John Cena. https://www.newsweek.com/john-cena-apologizes-china-after-calling-taiwan-country-1594424

Black_Rook said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

felix said:

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
1m
Westminster Voting Intention (31 May):

Conservative 45% (+2)
Labour 34% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 8% (-2)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Green 5% (–)
Other 5% (-1)

Changes +/- 24 May

Follow @redfieldwilton
to see our VI first

Interesting

Only Opinuim showing a Cummings effect

This assumes that such an effect existed, and that particular set of values wasn't simply a statistical outlier.

Andy_JS said:

"UK reports one COVID-related death and 3,383 new cases in latest figures

England has recorded zero daily deaths for just the fifth time since the government started collecting the figures."

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-reports-one-covid-related-death-and-3-383-new-cases-in-latest-figures-12321589

Meanwhile, the panic flapping and screeching about the Indian variant continues to intensify. The fact that nearly half of the adult population, including the vast bulk of the most vulnerable, have already been double jabbed counts for nothing. Once again, the more widespread the coverage afforded by the vaccines becomes, the more useless they are claimed to be.

MaxPB said:

It does seem like everything is bouncing off the infection rate, we're 10 days into indoor socialising, the symptomatic COVID rate (PCR positive) doesn't seem to be going anywhere and the hospitalisation rate in England is also not exactly surging, in fact the numbers in hospital are still dropping despite the return of indoor socialising and this new variant hitting vaccine rejectors.

It really feels like the zero COVID types realised this is their last opportunity to keep everyone locked up because the data hasn't changed very much at all 10 days into indoor socialising.

Leon said:

rcs1000 said:

IshmaelZ said:

rcs1000 said:

alex_ said:

Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?

To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.

The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)

Doesn't rule out deliberate development but accidental release.

It does not.

However, many of the people pushing the deliberate design hypothesis seem ignorant of basic science - such as the "scientist" quoted in the Daily Mail article yesterday (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9629563/Chinese-scientists-created-COVID-19-lab-tried-cover-tracks-new-study-claims.html) which contains the following line:

'The laws of physics mean that you cannot have four positively charged amino acids in a row. The only way you can get this is if you artificially manufacture it,' Dalgleish told DailyMail.com.

Which is simply not true.

Ignoring the fact that if the laws of physics prevent it, then you probably can't do it in a lab, the reality is that nature (and the human body itself) is chock full of four positively charged amino acids in a row.

CV19's genome is 96% the same as an existing bat virus. It's possible that the other 4% is man made. But the reality is that new diseases cross the animal-human barrier all the time, and 96% the same as something we have already seen is pretty much par for the course. If it was 75%, that would be amazing, but 96% is slap bang in the middle of normal variations

There are lots of possibles here: it's possible that 100 different bat viruses escaped the lab, and the reason this one survived is because it was the most transmissible.

It's also entirely possible that this virus crossed the animal-human barrier somewhere else, and Wuhan was just unlucky.

But those people who know about virology and amino acids seem to be a lot more sceptical of the "designed" theory than you.

For a smart guy, you are singularly stupid, surprisingly often

I wonder why virologists might be unkeen on the "design theory". Sit down and try and think about it, if you can

There. See?

If it is ever proven that an altered, weaponised virus escaped a lab and killed many millions then the careers of many virologists will come to an end overnight. No more research grants, no more international conferences, no labs where they can tinker with microbes, nothing. Their professional lives will cease as they know it, and they will come under deep and unpleasant scrutiny.

A few might end up in jail. They will also be globally denounced and unpopular. I can see the odd one or two getting lynched. Seriously

In that atmosphere, if you were a virologist, which scenario would you loudly favour, lab or market? You might tell yourself you are neutral and scientific, but really, you aren't. You're human and you are desperate to believe this didn't come from a lab, and that is affecting your judgement

We've seen it with some of the specialists on here

Theuniondivvie said:

DavidL said:

Sandpit said:

williamglenn said:

"Joanna Cherry QC @joannaccherry

I’ve resigned from the NEC of @theSNP. A number of factors have prevented me from fulfilling the mandate party members gave me to improve transparency & scrutiny & to uphold the party’s constitution. I won’t be making any further comment at this stage."

https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1399394596371763207

How many resignations is that now?

Just a feeling, but I reckon there might be something not quite right with the accounts this year...

Slightly surprised that she did not join Alba tbh. But in most organisations the Treasurer resigning because he was not allowed sight of the books would raise an eyebrow or two.

Not in the slightest surprised that she didn’t join Alba after their election performance. TSE’s maxim about farts and follow through springs to mind.

Did it ever come to light what the illness was that caused Cherry to be hors de combat at that vital juncture? I recall you saying you thought it was quite serious.

Fysics_Teacher said:

DavidL said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

ClippP said:

DavidL said:

I left school at the age of 16, at the end of year 5 in Scotland, and started University a week after my 17th birthday. I was bored of school by then and when I went to University they gave me a grant (those were the days) and a student Union card which allowed me to buy drink in most establishments (ditto).

I was, with hindsight, probably too young and too immature to make the best use of my first year but I was seriously bored of school and really wanted to do something else.

I don't think that I was that atypical. Many people, including those even less academically inclined than me, do not enjoy school and show precious little commitment to it. At the moment most of these end up doing some largely pointless college course which often reduces their employability given the very poor habits that college inculcates (poor attendance, no reward for effort (since everyone passes) and far too much downtime). I seriously question whether such people would benefit at all from 2 more years of compulsory schooling.

I am rather more taken with the argument that we start formal learning a bit soon but even if we accept that argument has merit I do not think that we should be adding years to the other end.

Good thread header though, thanks Richard.

But what is Scottish education like, Mr L. I suspect it is similar to the French and the American style - very mechanical, lots of rote learning and not much imagination and creativity - in fact very similar to what Gove and his evil genius did their best to impose on England.

If that is the case, I am not surprised that pupils there get bored very quickly.

I friend of mine at Oxford had left school in Scotland at 15. He graduated with a first in maths at 18, so I got the impression that Scotland’s education system had to be pretty good...

I think that he may have just been a tad exceptional... As a sample size that was probably less than optimal.

You mean not everyone in Scotland gets a first in maths?

contrarian said:

Leon said:

Now we've all reluctantly admitted that Trump was right and it came from the lab (possibly) what if it turns out Himmler was right and we live on a hollow earth?

That would also explain where the aliens "live"

Food for thought

And Griffin was right about grooming gangs decades ago. How many young women suffered because the right opinion was expressed by the wrong person?

MaxPB said:

It does seem like everything is bouncing off the infection rate, we're 10 days into indoor socialising, the symptomatic COVID rate (PCR positive) doesn't seem to be going anywhere and the hospitalisation rate in England is also not exactly surging, in fact the numbers in hospital are still dropping despite the return of indoor socialising and this new variant hitting vaccine rejectors.

It really feels like the zero COVID types realised this is their last opportunity to keep everyone locked up because the data hasn't changed very much at all 10 days into indoor socialising.

Leon said:

noneoftheabove said:

Leon said:

rcs1000 said:

IshmaelZ said:

rcs1000 said:

alex_ said:

Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?

To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.

The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)

Doesn't rule out deliberate development but accidental release.

It does not.

However, many of the people pushing the deliberate design hypothesis seem ignorant of basic science - such as the "scientist" quoted in the Daily Mail article yesterday (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9629563/Chinese-scientists-created-COVID-19-lab-tried-cover-tracks-new-study-claims.html) which contains the following line:

'The laws of physics mean that you cannot have four positively charged amino acids in a row. The only way you can get this is if you artificially manufacture it,' Dalgleish told DailyMail.com.

Which is simply not true.

Ignoring the fact that if the laws of physics prevent it, then you probably can't do it in a lab, the reality is that nature (and the human body itself) is chock full of four positively charged amino acids in a row.

CV19's genome is 96% the same as an existing bat virus. It's possible that the other 4% is man made. But the reality is that new diseases cross the animal-human barrier all the time, and 96% the same as something we have already seen is pretty much par for the course. If it was 75%, that would be amazing, but 96% is slap bang in the middle of normal variations

There are lots of possibles here: it's possible that 100 different bat viruses escaped the lab, and the reason this one survived is because it was the most transmissible.

It's also entirely possible that this virus crossed the animal-human barrier somewhere else, and Wuhan was just unlucky.

But those people who know about virology and amino acids seem to be a lot more sceptical of the "designed" theory than you.

For a smart guy, you are singularly stupid, surprisingly often

I wonder why virologists might be unkeen on the "design theory". Sit down and try and think about it, if you can

There. See?

If it is ever proven that an altered, weaponised virus escaped a lab and killed many millions then the careers of many virologists will come to an end overnight. No more research grants, no more international conferences, no labs where they can tinker with microbes, nothing. Their professional lives will cease as they know it, and they will come under deep and unpleasant scrutiny.

A few might end up in jail. They will also be globally denounced and unpopular. I can see the odd one or two getting lynched. Seriously

In that atmosphere, if you were a virologist, which scenario would you loudly favour, lab or market? You might tell yourself you are neutral and scientific, but really, you aren't. You're human and you are desperate to believe this didn't come from a lab, and that is affecting your judgement

We've seen it with some of the specialists on here

You propose further investigations into the origins, yet say the people capable of such investigations can't be believed if they reject your theory.....what is the point of further investigations? Just believe harder and you can get past 70/30.

I know you jest, but it is actually a problem. The people who have the greatest expertise in this field also have a huge conflict of interest: they are professionally and emotionally biased towards dismissing the lab leak hypothesis

I'm not sure what you do about it

Leon said:

noneoftheabove said:

Leon said:

rcs1000 said:

IshmaelZ said:

rcs1000 said:

alex_ said:

Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?

To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.

The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)

Doesn't rule out deliberate development but accidental release.

It does not.

However, many of the people pushing the deliberate design hypothesis seem ignorant of basic science - such as the "scientist" quoted in the Daily Mail article yesterday (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9629563/Chinese-scientists-created-COVID-19-lab-tried-cover-tracks-new-study-claims.html) which contains the following line:

'The laws of physics mean that you cannot have four positively charged amino acids in a row. The only way you can get this is if you artificially manufacture it,' Dalgleish told DailyMail.com.

Which is simply not true.

Ignoring the fact that if the laws of physics prevent it, then you probably can't do it in a lab, the reality is that nature (and the human body itself) is chock full of four positively charged amino acids in a row.

CV19's genome is 96% the same as an existing bat virus. It's possible that the other 4% is man made. But the reality is that new diseases cross the animal-human barrier all the time, and 96% the same as something we have already seen is pretty much par for the course. If it was 75%, that would be amazing, but 96% is slap bang in the middle of normal variations

There are lots of possibles here: it's possible that 100 different bat viruses escaped the lab, and the reason this one survived is because it was the most transmissible.

It's also entirely possible that this virus crossed the animal-human barrier somewhere else, and Wuhan was just unlucky.

But those people who know about virology and amino acids seem to be a lot more sceptical of the "designed" theory than you.

For a smart guy, you are singularly stupid, surprisingly often

I wonder why virologists might be unkeen on the "design theory". Sit down and try and think about it, if you can

There. See?

If it is ever proven that an altered, weaponised virus escaped a lab and killed many millions then the careers of many virologists will come to an end overnight. No more research grants, no more international conferences, no labs where they can tinker with microbes, nothing. Their professional lives will cease as they know it, and they will come under deep and unpleasant scrutiny.

A few might end up in jail. They will also be globally denounced and unpopular. I can see the odd one or two getting lynched. Seriously

In that atmosphere, if you were a virologist, which scenario would you loudly favour, lab or market? You might tell yourself you are neutral and scientific, but really, you aren't. You're human and you are desperate to believe this didn't come from a lab, and that is affecting your judgement

We've seen it with some of the specialists on here

You propose further investigations into the origins, yet say the people capable of such investigations can't be believed if they reject your theory.....what is the point of further investigations? Just believe harder and you can get past 70/30.

I know you jest, but it is actually a problem. The people who have the greatest expertise in this field also have a huge conflict of interest: they are professionally and emotionally biased towards dismissing the lab leak hypothesis

I'm not sure what you do about it

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

rcs1000 said:

alex_ said:

Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?

To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.

The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)

Big difference for me between Lab Theory Study Accident and Lab Theory Deliberate Weapon. The latter smells a bit 'yellow peril' and fu manchu. But the less lurid proposition is worth taking seriously from what I read.

So Lab Accident is OK because you've decided it's no longer racist, but Weaponised Virus is not OK because it is, still, according to you, "racist"

Has it occurred to you that assessing the various possible sources a of pandemic on the basis of whether they are "racist" or not is just bewilderingly stupid, and is one of the reasons we dismissed a highly plausible thesis for a year

You have misconstrued me. Maybe I was asking for it with "yellow peril" but still, I gave no consent. The reason I'm dubious about China having manufactured Covid as a weapon isn't because the notion is racist. It's because it makes no sense to me. But as it happens I'd say it's clear there is sinophobia at play in certain quarters on this one. And, yes, this is a factor for me. The Trumpian alt right may one day push a theory about something that rings true, but it's a day I'm still waiting for.

DavidL said:

Theuniondivvie said:

DavidL said:

Sandpit said:

williamglenn said:

"Joanna Cherry QC @joannaccherry

I’ve resigned from the NEC of @theSNP. A number of factors have prevented me from fulfilling the mandate party members gave me to improve transparency & scrutiny & to uphold the party’s constitution. I won’t be making any further comment at this stage."

https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1399394596371763207

How many resignations is that now?

Just a feeling, but I reckon there might be something not quite right with the accounts this year...

Slightly surprised that she did not join Alba tbh. But in most organisations the Treasurer resigning because he was not allowed sight of the books would raise an eyebrow or two.

Not in the slightest surprised that she didn’t join Alba after their election performance. TSE’s maxim about farts and follow through springs to mind.

Did it ever come to light what the illness was that caused Cherry to be hors de combat at that vital juncture? I recall you saying you thought it was quite serious.

No, I haven't heard any more. I do notice that this is a hullo and goodbye post with no further comment so I suspect whatever it is is not resolved yet.

If she was going to join Alba I agree that it would have been on the launch, not after their disastrous performance in the election.