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“Probability factor of one to one. We have normality. I repeat: we have normality. Anything you stil

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  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    Preposterously weak - as he later sorta admits

    There are hundreds of explanations as to why it got out of the lab but they didn't realise.

    A bat was taken to the market to be sold
    A mouse escaped?
    A human got it but felt nothing, but spread it anyway (many cases are asymptomatic)
    Someone got it and spread it and kept it quiet
    Someone from the lab coughed on a mango in the market: looks like the market
    The lab lied
    China lied
    Millions died


    The easiest rebuttal from all this is the words of the lab director, Shi Zhengli, the bat lady

    When she first heard about coronavirus, she says "my initial thought was 'It must have come from my lab' so I rushed back to check"

    If that was her FIRST reaction it means a lab leak was highly plausible, from the start. The hypothesis should never have been dismissed

  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    I haven't made my mind up on this but one obvious answer to your question is initial cover-up by lower level officials.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,817
    felix said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (31 May):

    Conservative 45% (+2)
    Labour 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Green 5% (–)
    Other 5% (-1)

    Changes +/- 24 May

    Follow @redfieldwilton
    to see our VI first

    That surge in Lib Dem support in Chesham and Amersham seems to have passed the pollsters by.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,285
    ClippP said:

    DavidL said:

    I left school at the age of 16, at the end of year 5 in Scotland, and started University a week after my 17th birthday. I was bored of school by then and when I went to University they gave me a grant (those were the days) and a student Union card which allowed me to buy drink in most establishments (ditto).

    I was, with hindsight, probably too young and too immature to make the best use of my first year but I was seriously bored of school and really wanted to do something else.

    I don't think that I was that atypical. Many people, including those even less academically inclined than me, do not enjoy school and show precious little commitment to it. At the moment most of these end up doing some largely pointless college course which often reduces their employability given the very poor habits that college inculcates (poor attendance, no reward for effort (since everyone passes) and far too much downtime). I seriously question whether such people would benefit at all from 2 more years of compulsory schooling.

    I am rather more taken with the argument that we start formal learning a bit soon but even if we accept that argument has merit I do not think that we should be adding years to the other end.

    Good thread header though, thanks Richard.

    But what is Scottish education like, Mr L. I suspect it is similar to the French and the American style - very mechanical, lots of rote learning and not much imagination and creativity - in fact very similar to what Gove and his evil genius did their best to impose on England.

    If that is the case, I am not surprised that pupils there get bored very quickly.
    I friend of mine at Oxford had left school in Scotland at 15. He graduated with a first in maths at 18, so I got the impression that Scotland’s education system had to be pretty good...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    felix said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (31 May):

    Conservative 45% (+2)
    Labour 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Green 5% (–)
    Other 5% (-1)

    Changes +/- 24 May

    Follow @redfieldwilton
    to see our VI first

    Damn, not another double-digit lead...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,627
    "Joanna Cherry QC @joannaccherry

    I’ve resigned from the NEC of @theSNP. A number of factors have prevented me from fulfilling the mandate party members gave me to improve transparency & scrutiny & to uphold the party’s constitution. I won’t be making any further comment at this stage."

    https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1399394596371763207
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited May 2021
    Leon said:

    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    Preposterously weak - as he later sorta admits

    There are hundreds of explanations as to why it got out of the lab but they didn't realise.

    A bat was taken to the market to be sold
    A mouse escaped?
    A human got it but felt nothing, but spread it anyway (many cases are asymptomatic)
    Someone got it and spread it and kept it quiet
    Someone from the lab coughed on a mango in the market: looks like the market
    The lab lied
    China lied
    Millions died


    The easiest rebuttal from all this is the words of the lab director, Shi Zhengli, the bat lady

    When she first heard about coronavirus, she says "my initial thought was 'It must have come from my lab' so I rushed back to check"

    If that was her FIRST reaction it means a lab leak was highly plausible, from the start. The hypothesis should never have been dismissed

    That’s an easy rebuttal to the argument that a lab leak wasn’t possible or plausible. Less of a rebuttal to the argument put that the poor response indicates that the Chinese didn’t realise (on the basis, whether you agree or not that they would/should have done).

    And a mouse escaping with it doesn’t indicate anything - in that case it would still have to make the jump to humans.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    I haven't made my mind up on this but one obvious answer to your question is initial cover-up by lower level officials.
    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?

    Meaning interesting that that's the best they can come up with? Cos it's feeble.

    Conspiracy theories don't come in to it, either. There is a case to answer.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    felix said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (31 May):

    Conservative 45% (+2)
    Labour 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Green 5% (–)
    Other 5% (-1)

    Changes +/- 24 May

    Follow @redfieldwilton
    to see our VI first

    PeAk jOhNsOn... :smile:
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    "Joanna Cherry QC @joannaccherry

    I’ve resigned from the NEC of @theSNP. A number of factors have prevented me from fulfilling the mandate party members gave me to improve transparency & scrutiny & to uphold the party’s constitution. I won’t be making any further comment at this stage."

    https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1399394596371763207

    How many resignations is that now?

    Just a feeling, but I reckon there might be something not quite right with the accounts this year...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:



    On 31 May, 3,383 new cases and 1 death within 28 days of a positive test were reported across the UK.

    We need hospitalisation numbers, vaccine status of patients, deaths and vaccinated numbers daily

    I wonder why they are not being provided

    Nothing else matters
    Does seem a bit strange that hospitalisation numbers don’t appear to have been updated for a week. I know that’s often the case locally, but I thought the national numbers were normally more regular (even if necessarily incomplete)?
    Richard Horton of the Lancet said this morning that on the 12th January 4,500 plus were in hospital and on the 25th May just 133

    This is why we need these numbers, together with the vaccination status of those in hospital
    133 admitted. 870 in total. The number admitted in the seven days to 25th May exactly equals the number currently confined. Of course there won’t be complete overlap, but it does suggest pretty high turnover which might indicates lots of people with a positive test and mild symptoms presenting as a “precaution” and being discharged in a few days.
    Is it known how many people in the UK (if any) have contracted Covid and died of it despite having been double vaccinated?
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/05/28/two-people-have-died-indian-variant-full-vaccination/
    Ah ok, thanks. Just 2 then. That's the sort of answer I was hoping for.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,034
    felix said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (31 May):

    Conservative 45% (+2)
    Labour 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Green 5% (–)
    Other 5% (-1)

    Changes +/- 24 May

    Follow @redfieldwilton
    to see our VI first

    Interesting

    Only Opinuim showing a Cummings effect
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,285
    alex_ said:

    Leon said:

    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    Preposterously weak - as he later sorta admits

    There are hundreds of explanations as to why it got out of the lab but they didn't realise.

    A bat was taken to the market to be sold
    A mouse escaped?
    A human got it but felt nothing, but spread it anyway (many cases are asymptomatic)
    Someone got it and spread it and kept it quiet
    Someone from the lab coughed on a mango in the market: looks like the market
    The lab lied
    China lied
    Millions died


    The easiest rebuttal from all this is the words of the lab director, Shi Zhengli, the bat lady

    When she first heard about coronavirus, she says "my initial thought was 'It must have come from my lab' so I rushed back to check"

    If that was her FIRST reaction it means a lab leak was highly plausible, from the start. The hypothesis should never have been dismissed

    That’s an easy rebuttal to the argument that a lab leak wasn’t possible or plausible. Less of a rebuttal to the argument put that the poor response indicates that the Chinese didn’t realise (on the basis, whether you agree or not that they would/should have done).

    And a mouse escaping with it doesn’t indicate anything - in that case it would still have to make the jump to humans.
    The idea that officials don’t want to admit to their bosses that they (or those they are responsible for) have fouled up and so delay telling them strikes me as being at least plausible.

    In fact I would assume that is how most organisations react unless they are very well run.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,817
    ClippP said:

    DavidL said:

    I left school at the age of 16, at the end of year 5 in Scotland, and started University a week after my 17th birthday. I was bored of school by then and when I went to University they gave me a grant (those were the days) and a student Union card which allowed me to buy drink in most establishments (ditto).

    I was, with hindsight, probably too young and too immature to make the best use of my first year but I was seriously bored of school and really wanted to do something else.

    I don't think that I was that atypical. Many people, including those even less academically inclined than me, do not enjoy school and show precious little commitment to it. At the moment most of these end up doing some largely pointless college course which often reduces their employability given the very poor habits that college inculcates (poor attendance, no reward for effort (since everyone passes) and far too much downtime). I seriously question whether such people would benefit at all from 2 more years of compulsory schooling.

    I am rather more taken with the argument that we start formal learning a bit soon but even if we accept that argument has merit I do not think that we should be adding years to the other end.

    Good thread header though, thanks Richard.

    But what is Scottish education like, Mr L. I suspect it is similar to the French and the American style - very mechanical, lots of rote learning and not much imagination and creativity - in fact very similar to what Gove and his evil genius did their best to impose on England.

    If that is the case, I am not surprised that pupils there get bored very quickly.
    I was an army brat and went to a lot of different schools in Winchester, Singapore, Carnoustie, Worthy Down, Germany, Crieff and Dundee. The one's abroad were army schools and basically ran on the English system. I can't really say that I saw a lot of difference. My wife started in Oban with a very old fashioned school and found herself a couple of years ahead when she went to Arbroath.

    My own kids have been through the Scottish system. There is an appalling and increasing lack of rigour. Gold stars for everyone is the ethos. The level of stimulus and imagination very much depends upon the teacher as, I suspect, that it does everywhere.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,280
    felix said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (31 May):

    Conservative 45% (+2)
    Labour 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Green 5% (–)
    Other 5% (-1)

    Changes +/- 24 May

    Follow @redfieldwilton
    to see our VI first

    Seems a bizarre time to release in opinion poll?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    felix said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (31 May):

    Conservative 45% (+2)
    Labour 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Green 5% (–)
    Other 5% (-1)

    Changes +/- 24 May

    Follow @redfieldwilton
    to see our VI first

    PeAk jOhNsOn... :smile:
    Plateau Johnson, we were here 2 weeks ago.

    The only way is down...
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Leon said:

    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    Preposterously weak - as he later sorta admits

    There are hundreds of explanations as to why it got out of the lab but they didn't realise.

    A bat was taken to the market to be sold
    A mouse escaped?
    A human got it but felt nothing, but spread it anyway (many cases are asymptomatic)
    Someone got it and spread it and kept it quiet
    Someone from the lab coughed on a mango in the market: looks like the market
    The lab lied
    China lied
    Millions died


    The easiest rebuttal from all this is the words of the lab director, Shi Zhengli, the bat lady

    When she first heard about coronavirus, she says "my initial thought was 'It must have come from my lab' so I rushed back to check"

    If that was her FIRST reaction it means a lab leak was highly plausible, from the start. The hypothesis should never have been dismissed

    Incidentally for all that you are clearly right that the lab leak theory should never have been so quickly dismissed, and is clearly prima facile plausible if not, at least, circumstantial likely, it sounds to me that you are descending to the other extreme - that anything other than a lab leak is extremely unlikely. Which given that you are still basing virtually everything on circumstantial evidence and alleged “secret” intelligence, is equally too big a jump IMO.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,285
    Sandpit said:

    "Joanna Cherry QC @joannaccherry

    I’ve resigned from the NEC of @theSNP. A number of factors have prevented me from fulfilling the mandate party members gave me to improve transparency & scrutiny & to uphold the party’s constitution. I won’t be making any further comment at this stage."

    https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1399394596371763207

    How many resignations is that now?

    Just a feeling, but I reckon there might be something not quite right with the accounts this year...
    I thought people were just reposting the same resignation several times...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    felix said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (31 May):

    Conservative 45% (+2)
    Labour 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Green 5% (–)
    Other 5% (-1)

    Changes +/- 24 May

    Follow @redfieldwilton
    to see our VI first

    PeAk jOhNsOn... :smile:
    No, that was the Hartlepool Blimp. Unless you're doubting me.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    alex_ said:

    Leon said:

    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    Preposterously weak - as he later sorta admits

    There are hundreds of explanations as to why it got out of the lab but they didn't realise.

    A bat was taken to the market to be sold
    A mouse escaped?
    A human got it but felt nothing, but spread it anyway (many cases are asymptomatic)
    Someone got it and spread it and kept it quiet
    Someone from the lab coughed on a mango in the market: looks like the market
    The lab lied
    China lied
    Millions died


    The easiest rebuttal from all this is the words of the lab director, Shi Zhengli, the bat lady

    When she first heard about coronavirus, she says "my initial thought was 'It must have come from my lab' so I rushed back to check"

    If that was her FIRST reaction it means a lab leak was highly plausible, from the start. The hypothesis should never have been dismissed

    That’s an easy rebuttal to the argument that a lab leak wasn’t possible or plausible. Less of a rebuttal to the argument put that the poor response indicates that the Chinese didn’t realise (on the basis, whether you agree or not that they would/should have done).

    And a mouse escaping with it doesn’t indicate anything - in that case it would still have to make the jump to humans.
    Yes, it does. They injected HUMANISED mice with the weaponised chimeric extra-nasty version of the bug

    Daily Telegraph:

    "Shortly before the first cases of coronavirus were reported, Dr Daszak gave an interview, saying the Wuhan work had been going on for 6 or 7 years, and warning that they had created "untreatable" Sars viruses which could infect humanised mice."



    https://twitter.com/djandjava/status/1398261497692889092?s=20
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,817
    Sandpit said:

    "Joanna Cherry QC @joannaccherry

    I’ve resigned from the NEC of @theSNP. A number of factors have prevented me from fulfilling the mandate party members gave me to improve transparency & scrutiny & to uphold the party’s constitution. I won’t be making any further comment at this stage."

    https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1399394596371763207

    How many resignations is that now?

    Just a feeling, but I reckon there might be something not quite right with the accounts this year...
    Slightly surprised that she did not join Alba tbh. But in most organisations the Treasurer resigning because he was not allowed sight of the books would raise an eyebrow or two.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Sandpit said:

    "Joanna Cherry QC @joannaccherry

    I’ve resigned from the NEC of @theSNP. A number of factors have prevented me from fulfilling the mandate party members gave me to improve transparency & scrutiny & to uphold the party’s constitution. I won’t be making any further comment at this stage."

    https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1399394596371763207

    How many resignations is that now?

    Just a feeling, but I reckon there might be something not quite right with the accounts this year...
    I thought people were just reposting the same resignation several times...
    Maybe Cherry holds so many posts that she is able to engage in a personal programme of rolling resignations. Didn’t she support Salmond/Alba?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,817

    ClippP said:

    DavidL said:

    I left school at the age of 16, at the end of year 5 in Scotland, and started University a week after my 17th birthday. I was bored of school by then and when I went to University they gave me a grant (those were the days) and a student Union card which allowed me to buy drink in most establishments (ditto).

    I was, with hindsight, probably too young and too immature to make the best use of my first year but I was seriously bored of school and really wanted to do something else.

    I don't think that I was that atypical. Many people, including those even less academically inclined than me, do not enjoy school and show precious little commitment to it. At the moment most of these end up doing some largely pointless college course which often reduces their employability given the very poor habits that college inculcates (poor attendance, no reward for effort (since everyone passes) and far too much downtime). I seriously question whether such people would benefit at all from 2 more years of compulsory schooling.

    I am rather more taken with the argument that we start formal learning a bit soon but even if we accept that argument has merit I do not think that we should be adding years to the other end.

    Good thread header though, thanks Richard.

    But what is Scottish education like, Mr L. I suspect it is similar to the French and the American style - very mechanical, lots of rote learning and not much imagination and creativity - in fact very similar to what Gove and his evil genius did their best to impose on England.

    If that is the case, I am not surprised that pupils there get bored very quickly.
    I friend of mine at Oxford had left school in Scotland at 15. He graduated with a first in maths at 18, so I got the impression that Scotland’s education system had to be pretty good...
    I think that he may have just been a tad exceptional... As a sample size that was probably less than optimal.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    edited May 2021
    alex_ said:

    Leon said:

    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    Preposterously weak - as he later sorta admits

    There are hundreds of explanations as to why it got out of the lab but they didn't realise.

    A bat was taken to the market to be sold
    A mouse escaped?
    A human got it but felt nothing, but spread it anyway (many cases are asymptomatic)
    Someone got it and spread it and kept it quiet
    Someone from the lab coughed on a mango in the market: looks like the market
    The lab lied
    China lied
    Millions died


    The easiest rebuttal from all this is the words of the lab director, Shi Zhengli, the bat lady

    When she first heard about coronavirus, she says "my initial thought was 'It must have come from my lab' so I rushed back to check"

    If that was her FIRST reaction it means a lab leak was highly plausible, from the start. The hypothesis should never have been dismissed

    Incidentally for all that you are clearly right that the lab leak theory should never have been so quickly dismissed, and is clearly prima facile plausible if not, at least, circumstantial likely, it sounds to me that you are descending to the other extreme - that anything other than a lab leak is extremely unlikely. Which given that you are still basing virtually everything on circumstantial evidence and alleged “secret” intelligence, is equally too big a jump IMO.
    I'm not dismissing anything. I have a strong personal hunch that the lab is responsible, because the circumstantial evidence is now very persuasive. And, despite a lot of research - 80,000 animals tested - we have zero evidence, apart from "precedent", for natural zoonosis. It is hugely in China's interest to find an animal culprit but they haven't managed it

    But if you asked me to put actual odds on it I'd say 70% lab, 30% animals outside the lab

    Both should be investigated, clearly
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.

    The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Delving into it that thread is embarrassingly stupid

    "Soviet authorities knew there was a nuclear accident at Chernobyl. In this case you have to believe contemporary China is more dysfunctional than even the Soviet Union: not only was it capable of a serious accident, it didn’t even notice anything!"

    Let's just think about the differences between a nuclear meltdown and a lab escape. On the one hand you have a nuclear meltdown, on the other a gradual realization among doctors that there's been a lot of nasty pneumonia going round for a month or two.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    felix said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (31 May):

    Conservative 45% (+2)
    Labour 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Green 5% (–)
    Other 5% (-1)

    Changes +/- 24 May

    Follow @redfieldwilton
    to see our VI first

    Interesting

    Only Opinuim showing a Cummings effect
    All the others must be outliers...........
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Yesterday, Israel has just five new covid cases.

    I felt it was important to share that statistic, because (a) they are only a little more vaccinated than we are, and (b) are now when welcoming tourists (assuming they are double vaccinated).

    Is the Israeli public keen on a range of continuing restrictions?

    Does the Israeli media go out of its way to have the local equivalent of Fake SAGE on permanent repeat?

    Do scientists advising the Israeli government continually give their own opinions (differing from consensus guidance) “on a personal basis”?

    Are behaviours with respect to COVID really quite so politicised? “We must do this to own Netanyahu”?
    It’s interesting to note that Israel has done very few vaccinations since about the middle of April. They’re stuck at about 80% of the adult population. Overtaken now by UAE overall, where it’s becoming increasingly difficult to live and work without being jabbed.


    I presume bulk of those are Haredi Jews refusing to take it? They make up about 15% of the population.
    That’s my understanding, yes. Orthodox Jews quite anti-vax.
    How many children are there in the UAE ?
    Loads in Israel. Not sure if they've started 12+ tho
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Leon said:

    alex_ said:

    Leon said:

    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    Preposterously weak - as he later sorta admits

    There are hundreds of explanations as to why it got out of the lab but they didn't realise.

    A bat was taken to the market to be sold
    A mouse escaped?
    A human got it but felt nothing, but spread it anyway (many cases are asymptomatic)
    Someone got it and spread it and kept it quiet
    Someone from the lab coughed on a mango in the market: looks like the market
    The lab lied
    China lied
    Millions died


    The easiest rebuttal from all this is the words of the lab director, Shi Zhengli, the bat lady

    When she first heard about coronavirus, she says "my initial thought was 'It must have come from my lab' so I rushed back to check"

    If that was her FIRST reaction it means a lab leak was highly plausible, from the start. The hypothesis should never have been dismissed

    That’s an easy rebuttal to the argument that a lab leak wasn’t possible or plausible. Less of a rebuttal to the argument put that the poor response indicates that the Chinese didn’t realise (on the basis, whether you agree or not that they would/should have done).

    And a mouse escaping with it doesn’t indicate anything - in that case it would still have to make the jump to humans.
    Yes, it does. They injected HUMANISED mice with the weaponised chimeric extra-nasty version of the bug

    Daily Telegraph:

    "Shortly before the first cases of coronavirus were reported, Dr Daszak gave an interview, saying the Wuhan work had been going on for 6 or 7 years, and warning that they had created "untreatable" Sars viruses which could infect humanised mice."



    https://twitter.com/djandjava/status/1398261497692889092?s=20
    But how does a humanised mouse infect a human? With an aerosol transmitted virus? I’ve no idea, but I’d want some scientific expertise on the point before just seemingly declaring “humanised”=“human”
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    rcs1000 said:

    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.

    The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)

    Doesn't rule out deliberate development but accidental release.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Yesterday, Israel has just five new covid cases.

    I felt it was important to share that statistic, because (a) they are only a little more vaccinated than we are, and (b) are now when welcoming tourists (assuming they are double vaccinated).

    Is the Israeli public keen on a range of continuing restrictions?

    Does the Israeli media go out of its way to have the local equivalent of Fake SAGE on permanent repeat?

    Do scientists advising the Israeli government continually give their own opinions (differing from consensus guidance) “on a personal basis”?

    Are behaviours with respect to COVID really quite so politicised? “We must do this to own Netanyahu”?
    It’s interesting to note that Israel has done very few vaccinations since about the middle of April. They’re stuck at about 80% of the adult population. Overtaken now by UAE overall, where it’s becoming increasingly difficult to live and work without being jabbed.


    I presume bulk of those are Haredi Jews refusing to take it? They make up about 15% of the population.
    Probably a smaller proportion, quite soon

    It's going to be an interesting test for the anti-vaxxers, when it becomes clear that non-vaccinated people are getting sick and dying in large numbers around the world, and the vaccinated are generally OK
    As you yourself know, people will construct elaborate explanations about how they were right all along, even when reality contradicts their assertions.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Leon said:

    alex_ said:

    Leon said:

    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    Preposterously weak - as he later sorta admits

    There are hundreds of explanations as to why it got out of the lab but they didn't realise.

    A bat was taken to the market to be sold
    A mouse escaped?
    A human got it but felt nothing, but spread it anyway (many cases are asymptomatic)
    Someone got it and spread it and kept it quiet
    Someone from the lab coughed on a mango in the market: looks like the market
    The lab lied
    China lied
    Millions died


    The easiest rebuttal from all this is the words of the lab director, Shi Zhengli, the bat lady

    When she first heard about coronavirus, she says "my initial thought was 'It must have come from my lab' so I rushed back to check"

    If that was her FIRST reaction it means a lab leak was highly plausible, from the start. The hypothesis should never have been dismissed

    Incidentally for all that you are clearly right that the lab leak theory should never have been so quickly dismissed, and is clearly prima facile plausible if not, at least, circumstantial likely, it sounds to me that you are descending to the other extreme - that anything other than a lab leak is extremely unlikely. Which given that you are still basing virtually everything on circumstantial evidence and alleged “secret” intelligence, is equally too big a jump IMO.
    I'm not dismissing anything. I have a strong personal hunch that the lab is responsible, because the circumstantial evidence is now very persuasive. And, despite a lot of research - 80,000 animals tested - we have zero evidence, apart from "precedent", for natural zoonosis. It is hugely in China's interest to find an animal culprit but they haven't managed it

    But if you asked me to put actual odds on it I'd say 70% lab, 30% animals outside the lab

    Both should be investigated, clearly
    Fair enough. I’ll take with a pinch of salt then any past or future posts declaring with faux certainty “it’s the lab”.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    GIN1138 said:

    felix said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (31 May):

    Conservative 45% (+2)
    Labour 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Green 5% (–)
    Other 5% (-1)

    Changes +/- 24 May

    Follow @redfieldwilton
    to see our VI first

    Seems a bizarre time to release in opinion poll?
    Weekly series
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited May 2021

    felix said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (31 May):

    Conservative 45% (+2)
    Labour 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Green 5% (–)
    Other 5% (-1)

    Changes +/- 24 May

    Follow @redfieldwilton
    to see our VI first

    Interesting

    Only Opinuim showing a Cummings effect
    It didn't really even show a Cummings effect, it showed a difference in the Labour number (in their polling, Labour had shot up at the expense on other left of centre parties). T

    he Tory number was still well into the 40s....42-45% is the consistent Tory number since the vaccine bounce.

    Its the Labour number that is all over the place, somewhere between 28% and 36%.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    alex_ said:

    Leon said:

    alex_ said:

    Leon said:

    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    Preposterously weak - as he later sorta admits

    There are hundreds of explanations as to why it got out of the lab but they didn't realise.

    A bat was taken to the market to be sold
    A mouse escaped?
    A human got it but felt nothing, but spread it anyway (many cases are asymptomatic)
    Someone got it and spread it and kept it quiet
    Someone from the lab coughed on a mango in the market: looks like the market
    The lab lied
    China lied
    Millions died


    The easiest rebuttal from all this is the words of the lab director, Shi Zhengli, the bat lady

    When she first heard about coronavirus, she says "my initial thought was 'It must have come from my lab' so I rushed back to check"

    If that was her FIRST reaction it means a lab leak was highly plausible, from the start. The hypothesis should never have been dismissed

    Incidentally for all that you are clearly right that the lab leak theory should never have been so quickly dismissed, and is clearly prima facile plausible if not, at least, circumstantial likely, it sounds to me that you are descending to the other extreme - that anything other than a lab leak is extremely unlikely. Which given that you are still basing virtually everything on circumstantial evidence and alleged “secret” intelligence, is equally too big a jump IMO.
    I'm not dismissing anything. I have a strong personal hunch that the lab is responsible, because the circumstantial evidence is now very persuasive. And, despite a lot of research - 80,000 animals tested - we have zero evidence, apart from "precedent", for natural zoonosis. It is hugely in China's interest to find an animal culprit but they haven't managed it

    But if you asked me to put actual odds on it I'd say 70% lab, 30% animals outside the lab

    Both should be investigated, clearly
    Fair enough. I’ll take with a pinch of salt then any past or future posts declaring with faux certainty “it’s the lab”.
    I was saying "it's the lab" to get people's attention, when everyone here was still complacently agreeing with the idiotic "consensus" that it came from the market, and that any lab leak theory was "Trumpite conspiracy bollocks"

    PB happily went along with this stupidity for far too long

    Now the scales have dropped I can stop shouting
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    edited May 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.

    The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)

    On that last point, it depends what the aim was. Would an evil state care about killing off a few thousand of its own people if it could cause huge disruption to the Western world?

    I don’t think it’s likely that it was deliberate, but COVID has very much been in the sweet spot of being deadly enough to cause serious headaches for governments but not so deadly as to scare people into locking themselves away.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,034
    GIN1138 said:

    felix said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (31 May):

    Conservative 45% (+2)
    Labour 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Green 5% (–)
    Other 5% (-1)

    Changes +/- 24 May

    Follow @redfieldwilton
    to see our VI first

    Seems a bizarre time to release in opinion poll?
    They release a weekly poll every Monday at 5.00pm
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    "UK reports one COVID-related death and 3,383 new cases in latest figures

    England has recorded zero daily deaths for just the fifth time since the government started collecting the figures."

    https://news.sky.com/story/uk-reports-one-covid-related-death-and-3-383-new-cases-in-latest-figures-12321589
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/may/29/health-experts-urge-caution-on-giving-covid-vaccines-to-uk-children

    These "health experts" can seriously fuck off. Covid can be rough for anyone past puberty tbh and we will achieve the greatest herd effect if we vax 12+
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,661
    GIN1138 said:

    felix said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (31 May):

    Conservative 45% (+2)
    Labour 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Green 5% (–)
    Other 5% (-1)

    Changes +/- 24 May

    Follow @redfieldwilton
    to see our VI first

    Seems a bizarre time to release in opinion poll?
    3 years too early!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.

    The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)

    Doesn't rule out deliberate development but accidental release.
    That strikes me as a highly likely scenario
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,280

    GIN1138 said:

    felix said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (31 May):

    Conservative 45% (+2)
    Labour 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Green 5% (–)
    Other 5% (-1)

    Changes +/- 24 May

    Follow @redfieldwilton
    to see our VI first

    Seems a bizarre time to release in opinion poll?
    They release a weekly poll every Monday at 5.00pm
    Oh right, I'm a bit out of the polling loop now I think Big G :D
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319

    ClippP said:

    DavidL said:

    I left school at the age of 16, at the end of year 5 in Scotland, and started University a week after my 17th birthday. I was bored of school by then and when I went to University they gave me a grant (those were the days) and a student Union card which allowed me to buy drink in most establishments (ditto).

    I was, with hindsight, probably too young and too immature to make the best use of my first year but I was seriously bored of school and really wanted to do something else.

    I don't think that I was that atypical. Many people, including those even less academically inclined than me, do not enjoy school and show precious little commitment to it. At the moment most of these end up doing some largely pointless college course which often reduces their employability given the very poor habits that college inculcates (poor attendance, no reward for effort (since everyone passes) and far too much downtime). I seriously question whether such people would benefit at all from 2 more years of compulsory schooling.

    I am rather more taken with the argument that we start formal learning a bit soon but even if we accept that argument has merit I do not think that we should be adding years to the other end.

    Good thread header though, thanks Richard.

    But what is Scottish education like, Mr L. I suspect it is similar to the French and the American style - very mechanical, lots of rote learning and not much imagination and creativity - in fact very similar to what Gove and his evil genius did their best to impose on England.

    If that is the case, I am not surprised that pupils there get bored very quickly.
    I friend of mine at Oxford had left school in Scotland at 15. He graduated with a first in maths at 18, so I got the impression that Scotland’s education system had to be pretty good...
    Who knows but clipp is talking through his arse, clown has notclue but just guesses its bad. Happens to have the highest number of people with degrees so cannot be too shabby.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    rcs1000 said:

    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.

    The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)

    Except, we also KNOW THIS for a fact:

    On 23 January the CCP quarantined all of Wuhan and Hubei, because they knew they were dealing with a lethal new respiratory virus. They stopped anyone travelling out of the killzone, to other parts of China.

    And yet at the same time China kept international flights OPEN, and vigorously fought against any closures of air routes in and out of China.

    They must have KNOWN they were seeding this terrible virus around the world. They did it deliberately, there can't be any other explanation. If China was going to suffer, every other country would also suffer.

    What is that if not bio-warfare by civilian means?

    This is true WHATEVER the origin of the virus. It is amazing it has not gained more attention

    "There is new evidence to show that China locked down all domestic traffic internally by end January 2020 but pushed to open foreign travel till end March. Data from Tom Tom traffic index, a traffic location site that covers 416 cities across 57 countries show that as a result of this strategy, China, intentionally or otherwise, was able to lockdown its cities unknown to the world. While this reduced the spread of the Corona virus within China, China’s aggressive foreign travel policy lead to a virus explosion worldwide."


    https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/blogs/Whathappensif/how-china-locked-down-internally-for-covid-19-but-pushed-foreign-travel/
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,034

    felix said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (31 May):

    Conservative 45% (+2)
    Labour 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Green 5% (–)
    Other 5% (-1)

    Changes +/- 24 May

    Follow @redfieldwilton
    to see our VI first

    Interesting

    Only Opinuim showing a Cummings effect
    It didn't really even show a Cummings effect, it showed a difference in the Labour number (in their polling, Labour had shot up at the expense on other left of centre parties). T

    he Tory number was still well into the 40s....42-45% is the consistent Tory number since the vaccine bounce.

    Its the Labour number that is all over the place, somewhere between 28% and 36%.
    Yes, the conservatives dropped 2 to (42%) but lib dems and greens also dropped 2
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    Totalitarian governments are often useless at covering things up.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    "Joanna Cherry QC @joannaccherry

    I’ve resigned from the NEC of @theSNP. A number of factors have prevented me from fulfilling the mandate party members gave me to improve transparency & scrutiny & to uphold the party’s constitution. I won’t be making any further comment at this stage."

    https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1399394596371763207

    How many resignations is that now?

    Just a feeling, but I reckon there might be something not quite right with the accounts this year...
    Slightly surprised that she did not join Alba tbh. But in most organisations the Treasurer resigning because he was not allowed sight of the books would raise an eyebrow or two.
    Chickens are coming home to roost , anybody not in Murrel gang with any more than two brain cells getting out before they get left holding the baby. It will not be the Murrels that are in the crap , they will swan of and live the life of Riley just not together.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Pulpstar said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/may/29/health-experts-urge-caution-on-giving-covid-vaccines-to-uk-children

    These "health experts" can seriously fuck off. Covid can be rough for anyone past puberty tbh and we will achieve the greatest herd effect if we vax 12+

    "Adam Hugh Roderick Finn is professor of paediatrics at the University of Bristol and head of the Bristol Children's Vaccine Centre."

    I strongly feel that pb has had enough of experts, in areas where expertise at least deserves a hearing.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    felix said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (31 May):

    Conservative 45% (+2)
    Labour 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Green 5% (–)
    Other 5% (-1)

    Changes +/- 24 May

    Follow @redfieldwilton
    to see our VI first

    Interesting

    Only Opinuim showing a Cummings effect
    This assumes that such an effect existed, and that particular set of values wasn't simply a statistical outlier.
    Andy_JS said:

    "UK reports one COVID-related death and 3,383 new cases in latest figures

    England has recorded zero daily deaths for just the fifth time since the government started collecting the figures."

    https://news.sky.com/story/uk-reports-one-covid-related-death-and-3-383-new-cases-in-latest-figures-12321589

    Meanwhile, the panic flapping and screeching about the Indian variant continues to intensify. The fact that nearly half of the adult population, including the vast bulk of the most vulnerable, have already been double jabbed counts for nothing. Once again, the more widespread the coverage afforded by the vaccines becomes, the more useless they are claimed to be.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.

    The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)

    Doesn't rule out deliberate development but accidental release.
    It does not.

    However, many of the people pushing the deliberate design hypothesis seem ignorant of basic science - such as the "scientist" quoted in the Daily Mail article yesterday (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9629563/Chinese-scientists-created-COVID-19-lab-tried-cover-tracks-new-study-claims.html) which contains the following line:

    'The laws of physics mean that you cannot have four positively charged amino acids in a row. The only way you can get this is if you artificially manufacture it,' Dalgleish told DailyMail.com.

    Which is simply not true.

    Ignoring the fact that if the laws of physics prevent it, then you probably can't do it in a lab, the reality is that nature (and the human body itself) is chock full of four positively charged amino acids in a row.

    CV19's genome is 96% the same as an existing bat virus. It's possible that the other 4% is man made. But the reality is that new diseases cross the animal-human barrier all the time, and 96% the same as something we have already seen is pretty much par for the course. If it was 75%, that would be amazing, but 96% is slap bang in the middle of normal variations

    There are lots of possibles here: it's possible that 100 different bat viruses escaped the lab, and the reason this one survived is because it was the most transmissible.

    It's also entirely possible that this virus crossed the animal-human barrier somewhere else, and Wuhan was just unlucky.

    But those people who know about virology and amino acids seem to be a lot more sceptical of the "designed" theory than you.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319

    Sandpit said:

    "Joanna Cherry QC @joannaccherry

    I’ve resigned from the NEC of @theSNP. A number of factors have prevented me from fulfilling the mandate party members gave me to improve transparency & scrutiny & to uphold the party’s constitution. I won’t be making any further comment at this stage."

    https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1399394596371763207

    How many resignations is that now?

    Just a feeling, but I reckon there might be something not quite right with the accounts this year...
    I thought people were just reposting the same resignation several times...
    she was sacked last time due to having an opinion different from the windbag and Nicola
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Pulpstar said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/may/29/health-experts-urge-caution-on-giving-covid-vaccines-to-uk-children

    These "health experts" can seriously fuck off. Covid can be rough for anyone past puberty tbh and we will achieve the greatest herd effect if we vax 12+

    The experts seem to be simultaneously cautioning against vaccinating children whilst invoking alleged dangers to children (see Christine Pagel meltdown on her Twitter feed) as reasons to not lift restrictions
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    edited May 2021
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Yesterday, Israel has just five new covid cases.

    I felt it was important to share that statistic, because (a) they are only a little more vaccinated than we are, and (b) are now when welcoming tourists (assuming they are double vaccinated).

    Is the Israeli public keen on a range of continuing restrictions?

    Does the Israeli media go out of its way to have the local equivalent of Fake SAGE on permanent repeat?

    Do scientists advising the Israeli government continually give their own opinions (differing from consensus guidance) “on a personal basis”?

    Are behaviours with respect to COVID really quite so politicised? “We must do this to own Netanyahu”?
    It’s interesting to note that Israel has done very few vaccinations since about the middle of April. They’re stuck at about 80% of the adult population. Overtaken now by UAE overall, where it’s becoming increasingly difficult to live and work without being jabbed.


    I presume bulk of those are Haredi Jews refusing to take it? They make up about 15% of the population.
    That’s my understanding, yes. Orthodox Jews quite anti-vax.
    How many children are there in the UAE ?
    Loads in Israel. Not sure if they've started 12+ tho
    Surprisingly few children in UAE actually, only about 10%.

    Among the local Emiratis, the median age is something bonkers like 23, but they are only 15% of the population.

    Pfizer vaccine approved for over-12s now, so getting to 160% vaccine doses must be doable in the next couple of months for UAE.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.

    The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)

    Except, we also KNOW THIS for a fact:

    On 23 January the CCP quarantined all of Wuhan and Hubei, because they knew they were dealing with a lethal new respiratory virus. They stopped anyone travelling out of the killzone, to other parts of China.

    And yet at the same time China kept international flights OPEN, and vigorously fought against any closures of air routes in and out of China.

    They must have KNOWN they were seeding this terrible virus around the world. They did it deliberately, there can't be any other explanation. If China was going to suffer, every other country would also suffer.

    What is that if not bio-warfare by civilian means?

    This is true WHATEVER the origin of the virus. It is amazing it has not gained more attention

    "There is new evidence to show that China locked down all domestic traffic internally by end January 2020 but pushed to open foreign travel till end March. Data from Tom Tom traffic index, a traffic location site that covers 416 cities across 57 countries show that as a result of this strategy, China, intentionally or otherwise, was able to lockdown its cities unknown to the world. While this reduced the spread of the Corona virus within China, China’s aggressive foreign travel policy lead to a virus explosion worldwide."


    https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/blogs/Whathappensif/how-china-locked-down-internally-for-covid-19-but-pushed-foreign-travel/
    Western governments seem to be obsessed with the idea that they might be accused of being "racist" as far as China is concerned, which seems bizarre in the circumstances.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.

    The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)

    On that last point, it depends what the aim was. Would an evil state care about killing off a few thousand of its own people if it could cause huge disruption to the Western world?

    I don’t think it’s likely that it was deliberate, but COVID has very much been in the sweet spot of being deadly enough to cause serious headaches for governments but not so deadly as to scare people into locking themselves away.
    That would be demonstrating extraordinary knowledge and foresight of the virus, the foreign country response to the virus and the impact of future mutations etc.

    What if we let it burn through pur elderly and vulnerable populations and emerged from the other side having solved the demographic timebomb in the Developed world?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    edited May 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.

    The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)
    Big difference for me between Lab Theory Study Accident and Lab Theory Deliberate Weapon. The latter smells a bit 'yellow peril' and fu manchu. But the less lurid proposition is worth taking seriously from what I read.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723

    felix said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (31 May):

    Conservative 45% (+2)
    Labour 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Green 5% (–)
    Other 5% (-1)

    Changes +/- 24 May

    Follow @redfieldwilton
    to see our VI first

    Interesting

    Only Opinuim showing a Cummings effect
    This assumes that such an effect existed, and that particular set of values wasn't simply a statistical outlier.
    Andy_JS said:

    "UK reports one COVID-related death and 3,383 new cases in latest figures

    England has recorded zero daily deaths for just the fifth time since the government started collecting the figures."

    https://news.sky.com/story/uk-reports-one-covid-related-death-and-3-383-new-cases-in-latest-figures-12321589

    Meanwhile, the panic flapping and screeching about the Indian variant continues to intensify. The fact that nearly half of the adult population, including the vast bulk of the most vulnerable, have already been double jabbed counts for nothing. Once again, the more widespread the coverage afforded by the vaccines becomes, the more useless they are claimed to be.

    felix said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (31 May):

    Conservative 45% (+2)
    Labour 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Green 5% (–)
    Other 5% (-1)

    Changes +/- 24 May

    Follow @redfieldwilton
    to see our VI first

    Interesting

    Only Opinuim showing a Cummings effect
    It didn't really even show a Cummings effect, it showed a difference in the Labour number (in their polling, Labour had shot up at the expense on other left of centre parties). T

    he Tory number was still well into the 40s....42-45% is the consistent Tory number since the vaccine bounce.

    Its the Labour number that is all over the place, somewhere between 28% and 36%.
    Yes, the conservatives dropped 2 to (42%) but lib dems and greens also dropped 2


    We have yet to see the Boris bounce after his wedding...
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,285
    DavidL said:

    ClippP said:

    DavidL said:

    I left school at the age of 16, at the end of year 5 in Scotland, and started University a week after my 17th birthday. I was bored of school by then and when I went to University they gave me a grant (those were the days) and a student Union card which allowed me to buy drink in most establishments (ditto).

    I was, with hindsight, probably too young and too immature to make the best use of my first year but I was seriously bored of school and really wanted to do something else.

    I don't think that I was that atypical. Many people, including those even less academically inclined than me, do not enjoy school and show precious little commitment to it. At the moment most of these end up doing some largely pointless college course which often reduces their employability given the very poor habits that college inculcates (poor attendance, no reward for effort (since everyone passes) and far too much downtime). I seriously question whether such people would benefit at all from 2 more years of compulsory schooling.

    I am rather more taken with the argument that we start formal learning a bit soon but even if we accept that argument has merit I do not think that we should be adding years to the other end.

    Good thread header though, thanks Richard.

    But what is Scottish education like, Mr L. I suspect it is similar to the French and the American style - very mechanical, lots of rote learning and not much imagination and creativity - in fact very similar to what Gove and his evil genius did their best to impose on England.

    If that is the case, I am not surprised that pupils there get bored very quickly.
    I friend of mine at Oxford had left school in Scotland at 15. He graduated with a first in maths at 18, so I got the impression that Scotland’s education system had to be pretty good...
    I think that he may have just been a tad exceptional... As a sample size that was probably less than optimal.
    You mean not everyone in Scotland gets a first in maths?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.

    The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)

    Doesn't rule out deliberate development but accidental release.
    It does not.

    However, many of the people pushing the deliberate design hypothesis seem ignorant of basic science - such as the "scientist" quoted in the Daily Mail article yesterday (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9629563/Chinese-scientists-created-COVID-19-lab-tried-cover-tracks-new-study-claims.html) which contains the following line:

    'The laws of physics mean that you cannot have four positively charged amino acids in a row. The only way you can get this is if you artificially manufacture it,' Dalgleish told DailyMail.com.

    Which is simply not true.

    Ignoring the fact that if the laws of physics prevent it, then you probably can't do it in a lab, the reality is that nature (and the human body itself) is chock full of four positively charged amino acids in a row.

    CV19's genome is 96% the same as an existing bat virus. It's possible that the other 4% is man made. But the reality is that new diseases cross the animal-human barrier all the time, and 96% the same as something we have already seen is pretty much par for the course. If it was 75%, that would be amazing, but 96% is slap bang in the middle of normal variations

    There are lots of possibles here: it's possible that 100 different bat viruses escaped the lab, and the reason this one survived is because it was the most transmissible.

    It's also entirely possible that this virus crossed the animal-human barrier somewhere else, and Wuhan was just unlucky.

    But those people who know about virology and amino acids seem to be a lot more sceptical of the "designed" theory than you.
    For a smart guy, you are singularly stupid, surprisingly often

    I wonder why virologists might be unkeen on the "design theory". Sit down and try and think about it, if you can

    There. See?

    If it is ever proven that an altered, weaponised virus escaped a lab and killed many millions then the careers of many virologists will come to an end overnight. No more research grants, no more international conferences, no labs where they can tinker with microbes, nothing. Their professional lives will cease as they know it, and they will come under deep and unpleasant scrutiny.

    A few might end up in jail. They will also be globally denounced and unpopular. I can see the odd one or two getting lynched. Seriously

    In that atmosphere, if you were a virologist, which scenario would you loudly favour, lab or market? You might tell yourself you are neutral and scientific, but really, you aren't. You're human and you are desperate to believe this didn't come from a lab, and that is affecting your judgement

    We've seen it with some of the specialists on here
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.

    The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)

    Except, we also KNOW THIS for a fact:

    On 23 January the CCP quarantined all of Wuhan and Hubei, because they knew they were dealing with a lethal new respiratory virus. They stopped anyone travelling out of the killzone, to other parts of China.

    And yet at the same time China kept international flights OPEN, and vigorously fought against any closures of air routes in and out of China.

    They must have KNOWN they were seeding this terrible virus around the world. They did it deliberately, there can't be any other explanation. If China was going to suffer, every other country would also suffer.

    What is that if not bio-warfare by civilian means?

    This is true WHATEVER the origin of the virus. It is amazing it has not gained more attention

    "There is new evidence to show that China locked down all domestic traffic internally by end January 2020 but pushed to open foreign travel till end March. Data from Tom Tom traffic index, a traffic location site that covers 416 cities across 57 countries show that as a result of this strategy, China, intentionally or otherwise, was able to lockdown its cities unknown to the world. While this reduced the spread of the Corona virus within China, China’s aggressive foreign travel policy lead to a virus explosion worldwide."


    https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/blogs/Whathappensif/how-china-locked-down-internally-for-covid-19-but-pushed-foreign-travel/
    Western governments seem to be obsessed with the idea that they might be accused of being "racist" as far as China is concerned, which seems bizarre in the circumstances.
    What is really racist is the "wet market" theory - nasty dirty bat-eating foreigners, so you can't really win on that one.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835
    edited May 2021

    DavidL said:

    ClippP said:

    DavidL said:

    I left school at the age of 16, at the end of year 5 in Scotland, and started University a week after my 17th birthday. I was bored of school by then and when I went to University they gave me a grant (those were the days) and a student Union card which allowed me to buy drink in most establishments (ditto).

    I was, with hindsight, probably too young and too immature to make the best use of my first year but I was seriously bored of school and really wanted to do something else.

    I don't think that I was that atypical. Many people, including those even less academically inclined than me, do not enjoy school and show precious little commitment to it. At the moment most of these end up doing some largely pointless college course which often reduces their employability given the very poor habits that college inculcates (poor attendance, no reward for effort (since everyone passes) and far too much downtime). I seriously question whether such people would benefit at all from 2 more years of compulsory schooling.

    I am rather more taken with the argument that we start formal learning a bit soon but even if we accept that argument has merit I do not think that we should be adding years to the other end.

    Good thread header though, thanks Richard.

    But what is Scottish education like, Mr L. I suspect it is similar to the French and the American style - very mechanical, lots of rote learning and not much imagination and creativity - in fact very similar to what Gove and his evil genius did their best to impose on England.

    If that is the case, I am not surprised that pupils there get bored very quickly.
    I friend of mine at Oxford had left school in Scotland at 15. He graduated with a first in maths at 18, so I got the impression that Scotland’s education system had to be pretty good...
    I think that he may have just been a tad exceptional... As a sample size that was probably less than optimal.
    You mean not everyone in Scotland gets a first in maths?
    Well, someone has to be the lawyer.

    Edit: Unless, of course, in the category of people with firsts in Maths who are now W.S. or advocates. Apologies for the lack of precision.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,958
    edited May 2021
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    "Joanna Cherry QC @joannaccherry

    I’ve resigned from the NEC of @theSNP. A number of factors have prevented me from fulfilling the mandate party members gave me to improve transparency & scrutiny & to uphold the party’s constitution. I won’t be making any further comment at this stage."

    https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1399394596371763207

    How many resignations is that now?

    Just a feeling, but I reckon there might be something not quite right with the accounts this year...
    Slightly surprised that she did not join Alba tbh. But in most organisations the Treasurer resigning because he was not allowed sight of the books would raise an eyebrow or two.
    Not in the slightest surprised that she didn’t join Alba after their election performance. TSE’s maxim about farts and follow through springs to mind.

    Did it ever come to light what the illness was that caused Cherry to be hors de combat at that vital juncture? I recall you saying you thought it was quite serious.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.

    The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)

    Except, we also KNOW THIS for a fact:

    On 23 January the CCP quarantined all of Wuhan and Hubei, because they knew they were dealing with a lethal new respiratory virus. They stopped anyone travelling out of the killzone, to other parts of China.

    And yet at the same time China kept international flights OPEN, and vigorously fought against any closures of air routes in and out of China.

    They must have KNOWN they were seeding this terrible virus around the world. They did it deliberately, there can't be any other explanation. If China was going to suffer, every other country would also suffer.

    What is that if not bio-warfare by civilian means?

    This is true WHATEVER the origin of the virus. It is amazing it has not gained more attention

    "There is new evidence to show that China locked down all domestic traffic internally by end January 2020 but pushed to open foreign travel till end March. Data from Tom Tom traffic index, a traffic location site that covers 416 cities across 57 countries show that as a result of this strategy, China, intentionally or otherwise, was able to lockdown its cities unknown to the world. While this reduced the spread of the Corona virus within China, China’s aggressive foreign travel policy lead to a virus explosion worldwide."


    https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/blogs/Whathappensif/how-china-locked-down-internally-for-covid-19-but-pushed-foreign-travel/
    Western governments seem to be obsessed with the idea that they might be accused of being "racist" as far as China is concerned, which seems bizarre in the circumstances.
    It’s more basic than that - it’s all about the money, and the Chinese are really quick to cancel anyone from the West who offends them.

    See the NBA, and this week’s bizzare apology from actor John Cena. https://www.newsweek.com/john-cena-apologizes-china-after-calling-taiwan-country-1594424
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    alex_ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/may/29/health-experts-urge-caution-on-giving-covid-vaccines-to-uk-children

    These "health experts" can seriously fuck off. Covid can be rough for anyone past puberty tbh and we will achieve the greatest herd effect if we vax 12+

    The experts seem to be simultaneously cautioning against vaccinating children whilst invoking alleged dangers to children (see Christine Pagel meltdown on her Twitter feed) as reasons to not lift restrictions
    All the perfectly legitimate questions that Professor Finn and others have raised over the vaccination of children revolve entirely around the fact that they themselves are at vanishing low risk from becoming seriously ill with Covid-19. The most recent NHS England hospital statistics state that 40 people aged from 0-19 have died of Covid-19 in English hospitals during the entire pandemic, which implies a grand total for the UK of no more than about 50. If you couple that fact with the very high level of complete vaccination coverage in all the most vulnerable societal groups, then there has to be a serious question about whether or not the very small risk to children from receiving the vaccines outweighs the even smaller risk of their being seriously harmed by the virus.

    This is an entirely separate issue from hyperbolic bellyaching over keeping society locked down til God alone knows when to protect minuscule numbers of children from the risk of serious illness. That's just another in the list of contrived excuses for not letting go of the security blanket of restrictions.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    Leon said:

    alex_ said:

    Leon said:

    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    Preposterously weak - as he later sorta admits

    There are hundreds of explanations as to why it got out of the lab but they didn't realise.

    A bat was taken to the market to be sold
    A mouse escaped?
    A human got it but felt nothing, but spread it anyway (many cases are asymptomatic)
    Someone got it and spread it and kept it quiet
    Someone from the lab coughed on a mango in the market: looks like the market
    The lab lied
    China lied
    Millions died


    The easiest rebuttal from all this is the words of the lab director, Shi Zhengli, the bat lady

    When she first heard about coronavirus, she says "my initial thought was 'It must have come from my lab' so I rushed back to check"

    If that was her FIRST reaction it means a lab leak was highly plausible, from the start. The hypothesis should never have been dismissed

    Incidentally for all that you are clearly right that the lab leak theory should never have been so quickly dismissed, and is clearly prima facile plausible if not, at least, circumstantial likely, it sounds to me that you are descending to the other extreme - that anything other than a lab leak is extremely unlikely. Which given that you are still basing virtually everything on circumstantial evidence and alleged “secret” intelligence, is equally too big a jump IMO.
    I'm not dismissing anything. I have a strong personal hunch that the lab is responsible, because the circumstantial evidence is now very persuasive. And, despite a lot of research - 80,000 animals tested - we have zero evidence, apart from "precedent", for natural zoonosis. It is hugely in China's interest to find an animal culprit but they haven't managed it

    But if you asked me to put actual odds on it I'd say 70% lab, 30% animals outside the lab

    Both should be investigated, clearly
    People don't want 70/30 opinions or namby pamby possible future investigations that wont be believed by their opponents anyway. Bring back feelings to drive reality, bring back the Leon report and the world will be a clearer place.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.

    The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)
    Big difference for me between Lab Theory Study Accident and Lab Theory Deliberate Weapon. The latter smells a bit 'yellow peril' and fu manchu. But the less lurid proposition is worth taking seriously from what I read.
    So Lab Accident is OK because you've decided it's no longer racist, but Weaponised Virus is not OK because it is, still, according to you, "racist"

    Has it occurred to you that assessing the various possible sources a of pandemic on the basis of whether they are "racist" or not is just bewilderingly stupid, and is one of the reasons we dismissed a highly plausible thesis for a year
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,285

    felix said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (31 May):

    Conservative 45% (+2)
    Labour 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Green 5% (–)
    Other 5% (-1)

    Changes +/- 24 May

    Follow @redfieldwilton
    to see our VI first

    Interesting

    Only Opinuim showing a Cummings effect
    This assumes that such an effect existed, and that particular set of values wasn't simply a statistical outlier.
    Andy_JS said:

    "UK reports one COVID-related death and 3,383 new cases in latest figures

    England has recorded zero daily deaths for just the fifth time since the government started collecting the figures."

    https://news.sky.com/story/uk-reports-one-covid-related-death-and-3-383-new-cases-in-latest-figures-12321589

    Meanwhile, the panic flapping and screeching about the Indian variant continues to intensify. The fact that nearly half of the adult population, including the vast bulk of the most vulnerable, have already been double jabbed counts for nothing. Once again, the more widespread the coverage afforded by the vaccines becomes, the more useless they are claimed to be.

    felix said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (31 May):

    Conservative 45% (+2)
    Labour 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Green 5% (–)
    Other 5% (-1)

    Changes +/- 24 May

    Follow @redfieldwilton
    to see our VI first

    Interesting

    Only Opinuim showing a Cummings effect
    It didn't really even show a Cummings effect, it showed a difference in the Labour number (in their polling, Labour had shot up at the expense on other left of centre parties). T

    he Tory number was still well into the 40s....42-45% is the consistent Tory number since the vaccine bounce.

    Its the Labour number that is all over the place, somewhere between 28% and 36%.
    Yes, the conservatives dropped 2 to (42%) but lib dems and greens also dropped 2
    We have yet to see the Boris bounce after his wedding...

    I have absolutely no desire to see Boris bouncing after his wedding.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,581

    felix said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (31 May):

    Conservative 45% (+2)
    Labour 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Green 5% (–)
    Other 5% (-1)

    Changes +/- 24 May

    Follow @redfieldwilton
    to see our VI first

    Interesting

    Only Opinuim showing a Cummings effect
    It didn't really even show a Cummings effect, it showed a difference in the Labour number (in their polling, Labour had shot up at the expense on other left of centre parties). T

    he Tory number was still well into the 40s....42-45% is the consistent Tory number since the vaccine bounce.

    Its the Labour number that is all over the place, somewhere between 28% and 36%.
    The EMA is showing a 10.7% Tory lead.
    Con 43.4%
    Lab 32.7%
    overall majority 68


  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.

    The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)
    Big difference for me between Lab Theory Study Accident and Lab Theory Deliberate Weapon. The latter smells a bit 'yellow peril' and fu manchu. But the less lurid proposition is worth taking seriously from what I read.
    So Lab Accident is OK because you've decided it's no longer racist, but Weaponised Virus is not OK because it is, still, according to you, "racist"

    Has it occurred to you that assessing the various possible sources a of pandemic on the basis of whether they are "racist" or not is just bewilderingly stupid, and is one of the reasons we dismissed a highly plausible thesis for a year
    “I assumed “Yellow Peril” was all about the LibDems!
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Trouble at t’mill


  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    alex_ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/may/29/health-experts-urge-caution-on-giving-covid-vaccines-to-uk-children

    These "health experts" can seriously fuck off. Covid can be rough for anyone past puberty tbh and we will achieve the greatest herd effect if we vax 12+

    The experts seem to be simultaneously cautioning against vaccinating children whilst invoking alleged dangers to children (see Christine Pagel meltdown on her Twitter feed) as reasons to not lift restrictions
    All the perfectly legitimate questions that Professor Finn and others have raised over the vaccination of children revolve entirely around the fact that they themselves are at vanishing low risk from becoming seriously ill with Covid-19. The most recent NHS England hospital statistics state that 40 people aged from 0-19 have died of Covid-19 in English hospitals during the entire pandemic, which implies a grand total for the UK of no more than about 50. If you couple that fact with the very high level of complete vaccination coverage in all the most vulnerable societal groups, then there has to be a serious question about whether or not the very small risk to children from receiving the vaccines outweighs the even smaller risk of their being seriously harmed by the virus.

    This is an entirely separate issue from hyperbolic bellyaching over keeping society locked down til God alone knows when to protect minuscule numbers of children from the risk of serious illness. That's just another in the list of contrived excuses for not letting go of the security blanket of restrictions.
    Yea I know it’s different people. Doesn’t of course prevent the Guardian lumping the lot together under the term “experts”.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Blimey Ben Bradley and Al Murray are absolute ringers
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.

    The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)

    Except, we also KNOW THIS for a fact:

    On 23 January the CCP quarantined all of Wuhan and Hubei, because they knew they were dealing with a lethal new respiratory virus. They stopped anyone travelling out of the killzone, to other parts of China.

    And yet at the same time China kept international flights OPEN, and vigorously fought against any closures of air routes in and out of China.

    They must have KNOWN they were seeding this terrible virus around the world. They did it deliberately, there can't be any other explanation. If China was going to suffer, every other country would also suffer.

    What is that if not bio-warfare by civilian means?

    This is true WHATEVER the origin of the virus. It is amazing it has not gained more attention

    "There is new evidence to show that China locked down all domestic traffic internally by end January 2020 but pushed to open foreign travel till end March. Data from Tom Tom traffic index, a traffic location site that covers 416 cities across 57 countries show that as a result of this strategy, China, intentionally or otherwise, was able to lockdown its cities unknown to the world. While this reduced the spread of the Corona virus within China, China’s aggressive foreign travel policy lead to a virus explosion worldwide."


    https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/blogs/Whathappensif/how-china-locked-down-internally-for-covid-19-but-pushed-foreign-travel/
    Western governments seem to be obsessed with the idea that they might be accused of being "racist" as far as China is concerned, which seems bizarre in the circumstances.
    It’s more basic than that - it’s all about the money, and the Chinese are really quick to cancel anyone from the West who offends them.

    See the NBA, and this week’s bizzare apology from actor John Cena. https://www.newsweek.com/john-cena-apologizes-china-after-calling-taiwan-country-1594424
    Will we be able to claim for compo from China if the disease was engineered in a lab there?

    Think of the depth of claiming expertise we could harness from Liverpool alone.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.

    The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)

    Doesn't rule out deliberate development but accidental release.
    It does not.

    However, many of the people pushing the deliberate design hypothesis seem ignorant of basic science - such as the "scientist" quoted in the Daily Mail article yesterday (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9629563/Chinese-scientists-created-COVID-19-lab-tried-cover-tracks-new-study-claims.html) which contains the following line:

    'The laws of physics mean that you cannot have four positively charged amino acids in a row. The only way you can get this is if you artificially manufacture it,' Dalgleish told DailyMail.com.

    Which is simply not true.

    Ignoring the fact that if the laws of physics prevent it, then you probably can't do it in a lab, the reality is that nature (and the human body itself) is chock full of four positively charged amino acids in a row.

    CV19's genome is 96% the same as an existing bat virus. It's possible that the other 4% is man made. But the reality is that new diseases cross the animal-human barrier all the time, and 96% the same as something we have already seen is pretty much par for the course. If it was 75%, that would be amazing, but 96% is slap bang in the middle of normal variations

    There are lots of possibles here: it's possible that 100 different bat viruses escaped the lab, and the reason this one survived is because it was the most transmissible.

    It's also entirely possible that this virus crossed the animal-human barrier somewhere else, and Wuhan was just unlucky.

    But those people who know about virology and amino acids seem to be a lot more sceptical of the "designed" theory than you.
    For a smart guy, you are singularly stupid, surprisingly often

    I wonder why virologists might be unkeen on the "design theory". Sit down and try and think about it, if you can

    There. See?

    If it is ever proven that an altered, weaponised virus escaped a lab and killed many millions then the careers of many virologists will come to an end overnight. No more research grants, no more international conferences, no labs where they can tinker with microbes, nothing. Their professional lives will cease as they know it, and they will come under deep and unpleasant scrutiny.

    A few might end up in jail. They will also be globally denounced and unpopular. I can see the odd one or two getting lynched. Seriously

    In that atmosphere, if you were a virologist, which scenario would you loudly favour, lab or market? You might tell yourself you are neutral and scientific, but really, you aren't. You're human and you are desperate to believe this didn't come from a lab, and that is affecting your judgement

    We've seen it with some of the specialists on here
    The dismissal of experts inconvenient to certain narratives is a defining characteristic of the discourse on here.

    Others are not to be questioned.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Now we've all reluctantly admitted that Trump was right and it came from the lab (possibly) what if it turns out Himmler was right and we live on a hollow earth?

    That would also explain where the aliens "live"

    Food for thought
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557

    felix said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (31 May):

    Conservative 45% (+2)
    Labour 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 8% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Green 5% (–)
    Other 5% (-1)

    Changes +/- 24 May

    Follow @redfieldwilton
    to see our VI first

    Interesting

    Only Opinuim showing a Cummings effect
    This assumes that such an effect existed, and that particular set of values wasn't simply a statistical outlier.
    Andy_JS said:

    "UK reports one COVID-related death and 3,383 new cases in latest figures

    England has recorded zero daily deaths for just the fifth time since the government started collecting the figures."

    https://news.sky.com/story/uk-reports-one-covid-related-death-and-3-383-new-cases-in-latest-figures-12321589

    Meanwhile, the panic flapping and screeching about the Indian variant continues to intensify. The fact that nearly half of the adult population, including the vast bulk of the most vulnerable, have already been double jabbed counts for nothing. Once again, the more widespread the coverage afforded by the vaccines becomes, the more useless they are claimed to be.
    As long as deaths remain flat, the 21st June date should go ahead IMO.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Leon said:

    Now we've all reluctantly admitted that Trump was right and it came from the lab (possibly) what if it turns out Himmler was right and we live on a hollow earth?

    That would also explain where the aliens "live"

    Food for thought

    There's a documentary on the hollow earth in cinemas right now.

    Godzilla Vs Kong
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    MaxPB said:

    It does seem like everything is bouncing off the infection rate, we're 10 days into indoor socialising, the symptomatic COVID rate (PCR positive) doesn't seem to be going anywhere and the hospitalisation rate in England is also not exactly surging, in fact the numbers in hospital are still dropping despite the return of indoor socialising and this new variant hitting vaccine rejectors.

    It really feels like the zero COVID types realised this is their last opportunity to keep everyone locked up because the data hasn't changed very much at all 10 days into indoor socialising.

    Do the zero COVID types include government ministers like George Useless?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Ouch



    "The only SNP party officers now registered with electoral commission is
    @NicolaSturgeon
    & her husband
    @PeterMurrell
    since Douglas Chapman resigned as treasurer.

    So Nicola Sturgeon is:
    Party leader
    Acting treasurer
    married to the Chief Exec

    All totally healthy & normal"


    https://twitter.com/stuartjdneil
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.

    The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)

    Doesn't rule out deliberate development but accidental release.
    It does not.

    However, many of the people pushing the deliberate design hypothesis seem ignorant of basic science - such as the "scientist" quoted in the Daily Mail article yesterday (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9629563/Chinese-scientists-created-COVID-19-lab-tried-cover-tracks-new-study-claims.html) which contains the following line:

    'The laws of physics mean that you cannot have four positively charged amino acids in a row. The only way you can get this is if you artificially manufacture it,' Dalgleish told DailyMail.com.

    Which is simply not true.

    Ignoring the fact that if the laws of physics prevent it, then you probably can't do it in a lab, the reality is that nature (and the human body itself) is chock full of four positively charged amino acids in a row.

    CV19's genome is 96% the same as an existing bat virus. It's possible that the other 4% is man made. But the reality is that new diseases cross the animal-human barrier all the time, and 96% the same as something we have already seen is pretty much par for the course. If it was 75%, that would be amazing, but 96% is slap bang in the middle of normal variations

    There are lots of possibles here: it's possible that 100 different bat viruses escaped the lab, and the reason this one survived is because it was the most transmissible.

    It's also entirely possible that this virus crossed the animal-human barrier somewhere else, and Wuhan was just unlucky.

    But those people who know about virology and amino acids seem to be a lot more sceptical of the "designed" theory than you.
    For a smart guy, you are singularly stupid, surprisingly often

    I wonder why virologists might be unkeen on the "design theory". Sit down and try and think about it, if you can

    There. See?

    If it is ever proven that an altered, weaponised virus escaped a lab and killed many millions then the careers of many virologists will come to an end overnight. No more research grants, no more international conferences, no labs where they can tinker with microbes, nothing. Their professional lives will cease as they know it, and they will come under deep and unpleasant scrutiny.

    A few might end up in jail. They will also be globally denounced and unpopular. I can see the odd one or two getting lynched. Seriously

    In that atmosphere, if you were a virologist, which scenario would you loudly favour, lab or market? You might tell yourself you are neutral and scientific, but really, you aren't. You're human and you are desperate to believe this didn't come from a lab, and that is affecting your judgement

    We've seen it with some of the specialists on here
    You propose further investigations into the origins, yet say the people capable of such investigations can't be believed if they reject your theory.....what is the point of further investigations? Just believe harder and you can get past 70/30.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Leon said:

    Now we've all reluctantly admitted that Trump was right and it came from the lab (possibly) what if it turns out Himmler was right and we live on a hollow earth?

    That would also explain where the aliens "live"

    Food for thought

    And Griffin was right about grooming gangs decades ago. How many young women suffered because the right opinion was expressed by the wrong person?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,817

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    "Joanna Cherry QC @joannaccherry

    I’ve resigned from the NEC of @theSNP. A number of factors have prevented me from fulfilling the mandate party members gave me to improve transparency & scrutiny & to uphold the party’s constitution. I won’t be making any further comment at this stage."

    https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1399394596371763207

    How many resignations is that now?

    Just a feeling, but I reckon there might be something not quite right with the accounts this year...
    Slightly surprised that she did not join Alba tbh. But in most organisations the Treasurer resigning because he was not allowed sight of the books would raise an eyebrow or two.
    Not in the slightest surprised that she didn’t join Alba after their election performance. TSE’s maxim about farts and follow through springs to mind.

    Did it ever come to light what the illness was that caused Cherry to be hors de combat at that vital juncture? I recall you saying you thought it was quite serious.
    No, I haven't heard any more. I do notice that this is a hullo and goodbye post with no further comment so I suspect whatever it is is not resolved yet.

    If she was going to join Alba I agree that it would have been on the launch, not after their disastrous performance in the election.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.

    The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)

    Doesn't rule out deliberate development but accidental release.
    It does not.

    However, many of the people pushing the deliberate design hypothesis seem ignorant of basic science - such as the "scientist" quoted in the Daily Mail article yesterday (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9629563/Chinese-scientists-created-COVID-19-lab-tried-cover-tracks-new-study-claims.html) which contains the following line:

    'The laws of physics mean that you cannot have four positively charged amino acids in a row. The only way you can get this is if you artificially manufacture it,' Dalgleish told DailyMail.com.

    Which is simply not true.

    Ignoring the fact that if the laws of physics prevent it, then you probably can't do it in a lab, the reality is that nature (and the human body itself) is chock full of four positively charged amino acids in a row.

    CV19's genome is 96% the same as an existing bat virus. It's possible that the other 4% is man made. But the reality is that new diseases cross the animal-human barrier all the time, and 96% the same as something we have already seen is pretty much par for the course. If it was 75%, that would be amazing, but 96% is slap bang in the middle of normal variations

    There are lots of possibles here: it's possible that 100 different bat viruses escaped the lab, and the reason this one survived is because it was the most transmissible.

    It's also entirely possible that this virus crossed the animal-human barrier somewhere else, and Wuhan was just unlucky.

    But those people who know about virology and amino acids seem to be a lot more sceptical of the "designed" theory than you.
    For a smart guy, you are singularly stupid, surprisingly often

    I wonder why virologists might be unkeen on the "design theory". Sit down and try and think about it, if you can

    There. See?

    If it is ever proven that an altered, weaponised virus escaped a lab and killed many millions then the careers of many virologists will come to an end overnight. No more research grants, no more international conferences, no labs where they can tinker with microbes, nothing. Their professional lives will cease as they know it, and they will come under deep and unpleasant scrutiny.

    A few might end up in jail. They will also be globally denounced and unpopular. I can see the odd one or two getting lynched. Seriously

    In that atmosphere, if you were a virologist, which scenario would you loudly favour, lab or market? You might tell yourself you are neutral and scientific, but really, you aren't. You're human and you are desperate to believe this didn't come from a lab, and that is affecting your judgement

    We've seen it with some of the specialists on here
    You propose further investigations into the origins, yet say the people capable of such investigations can't be believed if they reject your theory.....what is the point of further investigations? Just believe harder and you can get past 70/30.
    I know you jest, but it is actually a problem. The people who have the greatest expertise in this field also have a huge conflict of interest: they are professionally and emotionally biased towards dismissing the lab leak hypothesis

    I'm not sure what you do about it
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,817

    DavidL said:

    ClippP said:

    DavidL said:

    I left school at the age of 16, at the end of year 5 in Scotland, and started University a week after my 17th birthday. I was bored of school by then and when I went to University they gave me a grant (those were the days) and a student Union card which allowed me to buy drink in most establishments (ditto).

    I was, with hindsight, probably too young and too immature to make the best use of my first year but I was seriously bored of school and really wanted to do something else.

    I don't think that I was that atypical. Many people, including those even less academically inclined than me, do not enjoy school and show precious little commitment to it. At the moment most of these end up doing some largely pointless college course which often reduces their employability given the very poor habits that college inculcates (poor attendance, no reward for effort (since everyone passes) and far too much downtime). I seriously question whether such people would benefit at all from 2 more years of compulsory schooling.

    I am rather more taken with the argument that we start formal learning a bit soon but even if we accept that argument has merit I do not think that we should be adding years to the other end.

    Good thread header though, thanks Richard.

    But what is Scottish education like, Mr L. I suspect it is similar to the French and the American style - very mechanical, lots of rote learning and not much imagination and creativity - in fact very similar to what Gove and his evil genius did their best to impose on England.

    If that is the case, I am not surprised that pupils there get bored very quickly.
    I friend of mine at Oxford had left school in Scotland at 15. He graduated with a first in maths at 18, so I got the impression that Scotland’s education system had to be pretty good...
    I think that he may have just been a tad exceptional... As a sample size that was probably less than optimal.
    You mean not everyone in Scotland gets a first in maths?
    I have good statistical evidence that almost exactly 50% of the population is barely numerate at all!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.

    The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)

    Doesn't rule out deliberate development but accidental release.
    It does not.

    However, many of the people pushing the deliberate design hypothesis seem ignorant of basic science - such as the "scientist" quoted in the Daily Mail article yesterday (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9629563/Chinese-scientists-created-COVID-19-lab-tried-cover-tracks-new-study-claims.html) which contains the following line:

    'The laws of physics mean that you cannot have four positively charged amino acids in a row. The only way you can get this is if you artificially manufacture it,' Dalgleish told DailyMail.com.

    Which is simply not true.

    Ignoring the fact that if the laws of physics prevent it, then you probably can't do it in a lab, the reality is that nature (and the human body itself) is chock full of four positively charged amino acids in a row.

    CV19's genome is 96% the same as an existing bat virus. It's possible that the other 4% is man made. But the reality is that new diseases cross the animal-human barrier all the time, and 96% the same as something we have already seen is pretty much par for the course. If it was 75%, that would be amazing, but 96% is slap bang in the middle of normal variations

    There are lots of possibles here: it's possible that 100 different bat viruses escaped the lab, and the reason this one survived is because it was the most transmissible.

    It's also entirely possible that this virus crossed the animal-human barrier somewhere else, and Wuhan was just unlucky.

    But those people who know about virology and amino acids seem to be a lot more sceptical of the "designed" theory than you.
    For a smart guy, you are singularly stupid, surprisingly often

    I wonder why virologists might be unkeen on the "design theory". Sit down and try and think about it, if you can

    There. See?

    If it is ever proven that an altered, weaponised virus escaped a lab and killed many millions then the careers of many virologists will come to an end overnight. No more research grants, no more international conferences, no labs where they can tinker with microbes, nothing. Their professional lives will cease as they know it, and they will come under deep and unpleasant scrutiny.

    A few might end up in jail. They will also be globally denounced and unpopular. I can see the odd one or two getting lynched. Seriously

    In that atmosphere, if you were a virologist, which scenario would you loudly favour, lab or market? You might tell yourself you are neutral and scientific, but really, you aren't. You're human and you are desperate to believe this didn't come from a lab, and that is affecting your judgement

    We've seen it with some of the specialists on here
    Mind you, that Daily mail article and the paper behind it are so lame one is tempted to suggest a false flag op. But, yes, I didn't know till all this stuff started what gain of function research is. It's a nasty little euphemism and strikes me as a fucking stupid thing to be doing. The ostensible reason for doing it, so we can be prepared in case the same thing arises naturally, is feeble in the extreme; the possible real reasons are, first, because it's really fun and interesting and people give us big grants to do it, and secondly because it's a way of working on bio weapons without ostensibly breaching the BWC.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    Now we've all reluctantly admitted that Trump was right and it came from the lab (possibly) what if it turns out Himmler was right and we live on a hollow earth?

    That would also explain where the aliens "live"

    Food for thought

    And Griffin was right about grooming gangs decades ago. How many young women suffered because the right opinion was expressed by the wrong person?
    Yes. And as we become more polarised, this will become more of an issue
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.

    The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)

    Doesn't rule out deliberate development but accidental release.
    It does not.

    However, many of the people pushing the deliberate design hypothesis seem ignorant of basic science - such as the "scientist" quoted in the Daily Mail article yesterday (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9629563/Chinese-scientists-created-COVID-19-lab-tried-cover-tracks-new-study-claims.html) which contains the following line:

    'The laws of physics mean that you cannot have four positively charged amino acids in a row. The only way you can get this is if you artificially manufacture it,' Dalgleish told DailyMail.com.

    Which is simply not true.

    Ignoring the fact that if the laws of physics prevent it, then you probably can't do it in a lab, the reality is that nature (and the human body itself) is chock full of four positively charged amino acids in a row.

    CV19's genome is 96% the same as an existing bat virus. It's possible that the other 4% is man made. But the reality is that new diseases cross the animal-human barrier all the time, and 96% the same as something we have already seen is pretty much par for the course. If it was 75%, that would be amazing, but 96% is slap bang in the middle of normal variations

    There are lots of possibles here: it's possible that 100 different bat viruses escaped the lab, and the reason this one survived is because it was the most transmissible.

    It's also entirely possible that this virus crossed the animal-human barrier somewhere else, and Wuhan was just unlucky.

    But those people who know about virology and amino acids seem to be a lot more sceptical of the "designed" theory than you.
    For a smart guy, you are singularly stupid, surprisingly often

    I wonder why virologists might be unkeen on the "design theory". Sit down and try and think about it, if you can

    There. See?

    If it is ever proven that an altered, weaponised virus escaped a lab and killed many millions then the careers of many virologists will come to an end overnight. No more research grants, no more international conferences, no labs where they can tinker with microbes, nothing. Their professional lives will cease as they know it, and they will come under deep and unpleasant scrutiny.

    A few might end up in jail. They will also be globally denounced and unpopular. I can see the odd one or two getting lynched. Seriously

    In that atmosphere, if you were a virologist, which scenario would you loudly favour, lab or market? You might tell yourself you are neutral and scientific, but really, you aren't. You're human and you are desperate to believe this didn't come from a lab, and that is affecting your judgement

    We've seen it with some of the specialists on here
    You propose further investigations into the origins, yet say the people capable of such investigations can't be believed if they reject your theory.....what is the point of further investigations? Just believe harder and you can get past 70/30.
    I know you jest, but it is actually a problem. The people who have the greatest expertise in this field also have a huge conflict of interest: they are professionally and emotionally biased towards dismissing the lab leak hypothesis

    I'm not sure what you do about it
    Judge led inquiry. Or someone like Feynman.
  • AnExileinD4AnExileinD4 Posts: 337
    MaxPB said:

    It does seem like everything is bouncing off the infection rate, we're 10 days into indoor socialising, the symptomatic COVID rate (PCR positive) doesn't seem to be going anywhere and the hospitalisation rate in England is also not exactly surging, in fact the numbers in hospital are still dropping despite the return of indoor socialising and this new variant hitting vaccine rejectors.

    It really feels like the zero COVID types realised this is their last opportunity to keep everyone locked up because the data hasn't changed very much at all 10 days into indoor socialising.

    In addition the weather in the foreseeable future is outdoors weather. As best one can tell, that really does make a difference.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.

    The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)

    Doesn't rule out deliberate development but accidental release.
    It does not.

    However, many of the people pushing the deliberate design hypothesis seem ignorant of basic science - such as the "scientist" quoted in the Daily Mail article yesterday (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9629563/Chinese-scientists-created-COVID-19-lab-tried-cover-tracks-new-study-claims.html) which contains the following line:

    'The laws of physics mean that you cannot have four positively charged amino acids in a row. The only way you can get this is if you artificially manufacture it,' Dalgleish told DailyMail.com.

    Which is simply not true.

    Ignoring the fact that if the laws of physics prevent it, then you probably can't do it in a lab, the reality is that nature (and the human body itself) is chock full of four positively charged amino acids in a row.

    CV19's genome is 96% the same as an existing bat virus. It's possible that the other 4% is man made. But the reality is that new diseases cross the animal-human barrier all the time, and 96% the same as something we have already seen is pretty much par for the course. If it was 75%, that would be amazing, but 96% is slap bang in the middle of normal variations

    There are lots of possibles here: it's possible that 100 different bat viruses escaped the lab, and the reason this one survived is because it was the most transmissible.

    It's also entirely possible that this virus crossed the animal-human barrier somewhere else, and Wuhan was just unlucky.

    But those people who know about virology and amino acids seem to be a lot more sceptical of the "designed" theory than you.
    For a smart guy, you are singularly stupid, surprisingly often

    I wonder why virologists might be unkeen on the "design theory". Sit down and try and think about it, if you can

    There. See?

    If it is ever proven that an altered, weaponised virus escaped a lab and killed many millions then the careers of many virologists will come to an end overnight. No more research grants, no more international conferences, no labs where they can tinker with microbes, nothing. Their professional lives will cease as they know it, and they will come under deep and unpleasant scrutiny.

    A few might end up in jail. They will also be globally denounced and unpopular. I can see the odd one or two getting lynched. Seriously

    In that atmosphere, if you were a virologist, which scenario would you loudly favour, lab or market? You might tell yourself you are neutral and scientific, but really, you aren't. You're human and you are desperate to believe this didn't come from a lab, and that is affecting your judgement

    We've seen it with some of the specialists on here
    You propose further investigations into the origins, yet say the people capable of such investigations can't be believed if they reject your theory.....what is the point of further investigations? Just believe harder and you can get past 70/30.
    I know you jest, but it is actually a problem. The people who have the greatest expertise in this field also have a huge conflict of interest: they are professionally and emotionally biased towards dismissing the lab leak hypothesis

    I'm not sure what you do about it
    In which case you can never prove the lab leak theory or any other origin theory. The only people with the technical expertise to do so are, to your mind, tainted. You’re an entertaining read, but an erotic flint knapper researching stuff on the internet should be beat by a virologist researching stuff on the ground. But if the virologists are compromised then we can never conclusively prove anything as the only people with the expertise cannot be trusted. It’s like the liars paradox.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.

    The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)

    Doesn't rule out deliberate development but accidental release.
    It does not.

    However, many of the people pushing the deliberate design hypothesis seem ignorant of basic science - such as the "scientist" quoted in the Daily Mail article yesterday (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9629563/Chinese-scientists-created-COVID-19-lab-tried-cover-tracks-new-study-claims.html) which contains the following line:

    'The laws of physics mean that you cannot have four positively charged amino acids in a row. The only way you can get this is if you artificially manufacture it,' Dalgleish told DailyMail.com.

    Which is simply not true.

    Ignoring the fact that if the laws of physics prevent it, then you probably can't do it in a lab, the reality is that nature (and the human body itself) is chock full of four positively charged amino acids in a row.

    CV19's genome is 96% the same as an existing bat virus. It's possible that the other 4% is man made. But the reality is that new diseases cross the animal-human barrier all the time, and 96% the same as something we have already seen is pretty much par for the course. If it was 75%, that would be amazing, but 96% is slap bang in the middle of normal variations

    There are lots of possibles here: it's possible that 100 different bat viruses escaped the lab, and the reason this one survived is because it was the most transmissible.

    It's also entirely possible that this virus crossed the animal-human barrier somewhere else, and Wuhan was just unlucky.

    But those people who know about virology and amino acids seem to be a lot more sceptical of the "designed" theory than you.
    For a smart guy, you are singularly stupid, surprisingly often

    I wonder why virologists might be unkeen on the "design theory". Sit down and try and think about it, if you can

    There. See?

    If it is ever proven that an altered, weaponised virus escaped a lab and killed many millions then the careers of many virologists will come to an end overnight. No more research grants, no more international conferences, no labs where they can tinker with microbes, nothing. Their professional lives will cease as they know it, and they will come under deep and unpleasant scrutiny.

    A few might end up in jail. They will also be globally denounced and unpopular. I can see the odd one or two getting lynched. Seriously

    In that atmosphere, if you were a virologist, which scenario would you loudly favour, lab or market? You might tell yourself you are neutral and scientific, but really, you aren't. You're human and you are desperate to believe this didn't come from a lab, and that is affecting your judgement

    We've seen it with some of the specialists on here
    You propose further investigations into the origins, yet say the people capable of such investigations can't be believed if they reject your theory.....what is the point of further investigations? Just believe harder and you can get past 70/30.
    I know you jest, but it is actually a problem. The people who have the greatest expertise in this field also have a huge conflict of interest: they are professionally and emotionally biased towards dismissing the lab leak hypothesis

    I'm not sure what you do about it
    As a pragmatist, all you do is add it to the long list of questions to which we will never know the answer to, "like does god exist?" "what are we doing here?" and never give it a moments more thought. Far more productive than asking for more investigations, when you wont trust the outcome of such investigations.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.

    The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)
    Big difference for me between Lab Theory Study Accident and Lab Theory Deliberate Weapon. The latter smells a bit 'yellow peril' and fu manchu. But the less lurid proposition is worth taking seriously from what I read.
    So Lab Accident is OK because you've decided it's no longer racist, but Weaponised Virus is not OK because it is, still, according to you, "racist"

    Has it occurred to you that assessing the various possible sources a of pandemic on the basis of whether they are "racist" or not is just bewilderingly stupid, and is one of the reasons we dismissed a highly plausible thesis for a year
    You have misconstrued me. Maybe I was asking for it with "yellow peril" but still, I gave no consent. The reason I'm dubious about China having manufactured Covid as a weapon isn't because the notion is racist. It's because it makes no sense to me. But as it happens I'd say it's clear there is sinophobia at play in certain quarters on this one. And, yes, this is a factor for me. The Trumpian alt right may one day push a theory about something that rings true, but it's a day I'm still waiting for.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,817
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.

    The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)

    Doesn't rule out deliberate development but accidental release.
    It does not.

    However, many of the people pushing the deliberate design hypothesis seem ignorant of basic science - such as the "scientist" quoted in the Daily Mail article yesterday (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9629563/Chinese-scientists-created-COVID-19-lab-tried-cover-tracks-new-study-claims.html) which contains the following line:

    'The laws of physics mean that you cannot have four positively charged amino acids in a row. The only way you can get this is if you artificially manufacture it,' Dalgleish told DailyMail.com.

    Which is simply not true.

    Ignoring the fact that if the laws of physics prevent it, then you probably can't do it in a lab, the reality is that nature (and the human body itself) is chock full of four positively charged amino acids in a row.

    CV19's genome is 96% the same as an existing bat virus. It's possible that the other 4% is man made. But the reality is that new diseases cross the animal-human barrier all the time, and 96% the same as something we have already seen is pretty much par for the course. If it was 75%, that would be amazing, but 96% is slap bang in the middle of normal variations

    There are lots of possibles here: it's possible that 100 different bat viruses escaped the lab, and the reason this one survived is because it was the most transmissible.

    It's also entirely possible that this virus crossed the animal-human barrier somewhere else, and Wuhan was just unlucky.

    But those people who know about virology and amino acids seem to be a lot more sceptical of the "designed" theory than you.
    For a smart guy, you are singularly stupid, surprisingly often

    I wonder why virologists might be unkeen on the "design theory". Sit down and try and think about it, if you can

    There. See?

    If it is ever proven that an altered, weaponised virus escaped a lab and killed many millions then the careers of many virologists will come to an end overnight. No more research grants, no more international conferences, no labs where they can tinker with microbes, nothing. Their professional lives will cease as they know it, and they will come under deep and unpleasant scrutiny.

    A few might end up in jail. They will also be globally denounced and unpopular. I can see the odd one or two getting lynched. Seriously

    In that atmosphere, if you were a virologist, which scenario would you loudly favour, lab or market? You might tell yourself you are neutral and scientific, but really, you aren't. You're human and you are desperate to believe this didn't come from a lab, and that is affecting your judgement

    We've seen it with some of the specialists on here
    You propose further investigations into the origins, yet say the people capable of such investigations can't be believed if they reject your theory.....what is the point of further investigations? Just believe harder and you can get past 70/30.
    I know you jest, but it is actually a problem. The people who have the greatest expertise in this field also have a huge conflict of interest: they are professionally and emotionally biased towards dismissing the lab leak hypothesis

    I'm not sure what you do about it
    Not completely convinced by that. If it were established that China is responsible for several million deaths worldwide it seems to me that you have 2 choices:
    (a) nuke China until it glows.
    (b) hire lots of virologists to overcome whatever the hell the mad psychopaths come up with next.

    (b) is a fairly good bet.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    edited May 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.

    The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)

    Doesn't rule out deliberate development but accidental release.
    It does not.

    However, many of the people pushing the deliberate design hypothesis seem ignorant of basic science - such as the "scientist" quoted in the Daily Mail article yesterday (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9629563/Chinese-scientists-created-COVID-19-lab-tried-cover-tracks-new-study-claims.html) which contains the following line:

    'The laws of physics mean that you cannot have four positively charged amino acids in a row. The only way you can get this is if you artificially manufacture it,' Dalgleish told DailyMail.com.

    Which is simply not true.

    Ignoring the fact that if the laws of physics prevent it, then you probably can't do it in a lab, the reality is that nature (and the human body itself) is chock full of four positively charged amino acids in a row.

    CV19's genome is 96% the same as an existing bat virus. It's possible that the other 4% is man made. But the reality is that new diseases cross the animal-human barrier all the time, and 96% the same as something we have already seen is pretty much par for the course. If it was 75%, that would be amazing, but 96% is slap bang in the middle of normal variations

    There are lots of possibles here: it's possible that 100 different bat viruses escaped the lab, and the reason this one survived is because it was the most transmissible.

    It's also entirely possible that this virus crossed the animal-human barrier somewhere else, and Wuhan was just unlucky.

    But those people who know about virology and amino acids seem to be a lot more sceptical of the "designed" theory than you.
    For a smart guy, you are singularly stupid, surprisingly often

    I wonder why virologists might be unkeen on the "design theory". Sit down and try and think about it, if you can

    There. See?

    If it is ever proven that an altered, weaponised virus escaped a lab and killed many millions then the careers of many virologists will come to an end overnight. No more research grants, no more international conferences, no labs where they can tinker with microbes, nothing. Their professional lives will cease as they know it, and they will come under deep and unpleasant scrutiny.

    A few might end up in jail. They will also be globally denounced and unpopular. I can see the odd one or two getting lynched. Seriously

    In that atmosphere, if you were a virologist, which scenario would you loudly favour, lab or market? You might tell yourself you are neutral and scientific, but really, you aren't. You're human and you are desperate to believe this didn't come from a lab, and that is affecting your judgement

    We've seen it with some of the specialists on here
    Mind you, that Daily mail article and the paper behind it are so lame one is tempted to suggest a false flag op. But, yes, I didn't know till all this stuff started what gain of function research is. It's a nasty little euphemism and strikes me as a fucking stupid thing to be doing. The ostensible reason for doing it, so we can be prepared in case the same thing arises naturally, is feeble in the extreme; the possible real reasons are, first, because it's really fun and interesting and people give us big grants to do it, and secondly because it's a way of working on bio weapons without ostensibly breaching the BWC.
    Completely agree. And, like you, I had never heard of "gain of function" til recently. It is abhorrent. Even if it is proved that the Rona has a natural origin, one of the consequences of this disaster must be a complete cessation of this Frankenstein research. Merrily creating new super-transmissible deadly viruses for which we have no vaccine! Brilliant. Not.


    To spice this horrible curry of conspiracy, there is growing evidence the Wuhan lab had links to the Chinese military. What are the odds they were kinda hoping a new bioweapon might turn up?

    "Worrying new clues about the origins of Covid: How scientists at Wuhan lab helped Chinese army in secret project to find animal viruses, writes IAN BIRRELL"


    "Colonel Cao is listed on project reports as a researcher from the Academy of Military Medical Sciences of the People's Liberation Army, works closely with other military scientists and is director of the Military Biosafety Expert Committee.

    "Cao, an epidemiologist who studied at Cambridge University, even sits on the Wuhan Institute of Virology's advisory board. He was second-in-command of the military team sent into the city under Major General Chen Wei, the country's top biodefence expert, to respond to the new virus and develop a vaccine"



    The cross over from "Finding vaccines to help the military defend against possible new viruses" to "oops, we've made a new militarily-useful virus against which there is no vaccine" is a pretty small conceptual leap

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9507749/How-scientists-Wuhan-lab-helped-Chinese-army-secret-project-animal-viruses.html
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    I've just received an e-mail asking me to rebook my second jab for an earlier date.
  • DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.

    The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)

    Doesn't rule out deliberate development but accidental release.
    It does not.

    However, many of the people pushing the deliberate design hypothesis seem ignorant of basic science - such as the "scientist" quoted in the Daily Mail article yesterday (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9629563/Chinese-scientists-created-COVID-19-lab-tried-cover-tracks-new-study-claims.html) which contains the following line:

    'The laws of physics mean that you cannot have four positively charged amino acids in a row. The only way you can get this is if you artificially manufacture it,' Dalgleish told DailyMail.com.

    Which is simply not true.

    Ignoring the fact that if the laws of physics prevent it, then you probably can't do it in a lab, the reality is that nature (and the human body itself) is chock full of four positively charged amino acids in a row.

    CV19's genome is 96% the same as an existing bat virus. It's possible that the other 4% is man made. But the reality is that new diseases cross the animal-human barrier all the time, and 96% the same as something we have already seen is pretty much par for the course. If it was 75%, that would be amazing, but 96% is slap bang in the middle of normal variations

    There are lots of possibles here: it's possible that 100 different bat viruses escaped the lab, and the reason this one survived is because it was the most transmissible.

    It's also entirely possible that this virus crossed the animal-human barrier somewhere else, and Wuhan was just unlucky.

    But those people who know about virology and amino acids seem to be a lot more sceptical of the "designed" theory than you.
    For a smart guy, you are singularly stupid, surprisingly often

    I wonder why virologists might be unkeen on the "design theory". Sit down and try and think about it, if you can

    There. See?

    If it is ever proven that an altered, weaponised virus escaped a lab and killed many millions then the careers of many virologists will come to an end overnight. No more research grants, no more international conferences, no labs where they can tinker with microbes, nothing. Their professional lives will cease as they know it, and they will come under deep and unpleasant scrutiny.

    A few might end up in jail. They will also be globally denounced and unpopular. I can see the odd one or two getting lynched. Seriously

    In that atmosphere, if you were a virologist, which scenario would you loudly favour, lab or market? You might tell yourself you are neutral and scientific, but really, you aren't. You're human and you are desperate to believe this didn't come from a lab, and that is affecting your judgement

    We've seen it with some of the specialists on here
    You propose further investigations into the origins, yet say the people capable of such investigations can't be believed if they reject your theory.....what is the point of further investigations? Just believe harder and you can get past 70/30.
    I know you jest, but it is actually a problem. The people who have the greatest expertise in this field also have a huge conflict of interest: they are professionally and emotionally biased towards dismissing the lab leak hypothesis

    I'm not sure what you do about it
    Not completely convinced by that. If it were established that China is responsible for several million deaths worldwide it seems to me that you have 2 choices:
    (a) nuke China until it glows.
    (b) hire lots of virologists to overcome whatever the hell the mad psychopaths come up with next.

    (b) is a fairly good bet.
    I suspect you may not be in the (non-chinese) majority on that.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.

    The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)
    Big difference for me between Lab Theory Study Accident and Lab Theory Deliberate Weapon. The latter smells a bit 'yellow peril' and fu manchu. But the less lurid proposition is worth taking seriously from what I read.
    So Lab Accident is OK because you've decided it's no longer racist, but Weaponised Virus is not OK because it is, still, according to you, "racist"

    Has it occurred to you that assessing the various possible sources a of pandemic on the basis of whether they are "racist" or not is just bewilderingly stupid, and is one of the reasons we dismissed a highly plausible thesis for a year
    You have misconstrued me. Maybe I was asking for it with "yellow peril" but still, I gave no consent. The reason I'm dubious about China having manufactured Covid as a weapon isn't because the notion is racist. It's because it makes no sense to me. But as it happens I'd say it's clear there is sinophobia at play in certain quarters on this one. And, yes, this is a factor for me. The Trumpian alt right may one day push a theory about something that rings true, but it's a day I'm still waiting for.
    Er, the Trumpite right pushed the lab leak theory, which was dismissed for a year (even banned on Facebook) because it came from Trump, That's the theory you now accept might well be true
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    alex_ said:

    Interesting counter-conspiratorial arguments to the lab leak theory.

    https://twitter.com/PAstynome/status/1399151529098158082

    If it was a lab leak, why did the Chinese do such a useless job of combatting it?



    To be fair, I can think of lots of good reasons, the most likely of which is that the people in the lab will have tried to cover up any leak. The Chinese government is unlikely to be kind to people who killed thousands, shut the entire country down, and opened China up to significant criticism from abroad.

    The fact that they have been so shit in dealing with it, and have such poor vaccines, is however evidence against them having deliberately created this virus as a weapon and released it into the wild. (Mind you, there's lots of other evidence against that too: like why would you release it in your own country.)

    Doesn't rule out deliberate development but accidental release.
    It does not.

    However, many of the people pushing the deliberate design hypothesis seem ignorant of basic science - such as the "scientist" quoted in the Daily Mail article yesterday (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9629563/Chinese-scientists-created-COVID-19-lab-tried-cover-tracks-new-study-claims.html) which contains the following line:

    'The laws of physics mean that you cannot have four positively charged amino acids in a row. The only way you can get this is if you artificially manufacture it,' Dalgleish told DailyMail.com.

    Which is simply not true.

    Ignoring the fact that if the laws of physics prevent it, then you probably can't do it in a lab, the reality is that nature (and the human body itself) is chock full of four positively charged amino acids in a row.

    CV19's genome is 96% the same as an existing bat virus. It's possible that the other 4% is man made. But the reality is that new diseases cross the animal-human barrier all the time, and 96% the same as something we have already seen is pretty much par for the course. If it was 75%, that would be amazing, but 96% is slap bang in the middle of normal variations

    There are lots of possibles here: it's possible that 100 different bat viruses escaped the lab, and the reason this one survived is because it was the most transmissible.

    It's also entirely possible that this virus crossed the animal-human barrier somewhere else, and Wuhan was just unlucky.

    But those people who know about virology and amino acids seem to be a lot more sceptical of the "designed" theory than you.
    For a smart guy, you are singularly stupid, surprisingly often

    I wonder why virologists might be unkeen on the "design theory". Sit down and try and think about it, if you can

    There. See?

    If it is ever proven that an altered, weaponised virus escaped a lab and killed many millions then the careers of many virologists will come to an end overnight. No more research grants, no more international conferences, no labs where they can tinker with microbes, nothing. Their professional lives will cease as they know it, and they will come under deep and unpleasant scrutiny.

    A few might end up in jail. They will also be globally denounced and unpopular. I can see the odd one or two getting lynched. Seriously

    In that atmosphere, if you were a virologist, which scenario would you loudly favour, lab or market? You might tell yourself you are neutral and scientific, but really, you aren't. You're human and you are desperate to believe this didn't come from a lab, and that is affecting your judgement

    We've seen it with some of the specialists on here
    You propose further investigations into the origins, yet say the people capable of such investigations can't be believed if they reject your theory.....what is the point of further investigations? Just believe harder and you can get past 70/30.
    I know you jest, but it is actually a problem. The people who have the greatest expertise in this field also have a huge conflict of interest: they are professionally and emotionally biased towards dismissing the lab leak hypothesis

    I'm not sure what you do about it
    As a pragmatist, all you do is add it to the long list of questions to which we will never know the answer to, "like does god exist?" "what are we doing here?" and never give it a moments more thought. Far more productive than asking for more investigations, when you wont trust the outcome of such investigations.
    I think the answer is to construct an inquiry which is not LED by virologists, but which employs them and instructs them
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    "Joanna Cherry QC @joannaccherry

    I’ve resigned from the NEC of @theSNP. A number of factors have prevented me from fulfilling the mandate party members gave me to improve transparency & scrutiny & to uphold the party’s constitution. I won’t be making any further comment at this stage."

    https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1399394596371763207

    How many resignations is that now?

    Just a feeling, but I reckon there might be something not quite right with the accounts this year...
    Slightly surprised that she did not join Alba tbh. But in most organisations the Treasurer resigning because he was not allowed sight of the books would raise an eyebrow or two.
    Not in the slightest surprised that she didn’t join Alba after their election performance. TSE’s maxim about farts and follow through springs to mind.

    Did it ever come to light what the illness was that caused Cherry to be hors de combat at that vital juncture? I recall you saying you thought it was quite serious.
    No, I haven't heard any more. I do notice that this is a hullo and goodbye post with no further comment so I suspect whatever it is is not resolved yet.

    If she was going to join Alba I agree that it would have been on the launch, not after their disastrous performance in the election.
    They seem to be doing not bad, more members than LD's and overtaking Tories. Times they are a changing, once Murrel Towers is breached there will be a changing of the guard. Why do you think Sturgeon is so desperate to do a deal with the odious Greens, she is going to need all the support she can get.
This discussion has been closed.