The Indy publishes LD data suggesting that Chesham & Amersham could be competitive – politicalbettin

first?

As well as pushing against Boris' Brexit in the 55% Remain area, the report also says the LDs are pushing a NIMBY agenda hard.

'In a letter to Tory by-election candidate Peter Fleet, Lib Dem MP Layla Moran urged him to condemn the government’s approach, writing: “Over the last two years the Conservative Party has received over £11m in donations from property developers.

“Local people are right to be angry at a Conservative Party that chooses to champion those who seek to build on the green belt rather than the views of local people in Chesham and Amersham.”

Clearly there has been a swing to the LDs there but the Tories should hold on unless the LDs can squeeze the Labour and Green vote to near zero

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/chesham-amersham-byelection-libdems-davey-b1856301.html

So the Lib Dems think they are Winning Here?

Check out the Indy500 on now. If that’s 40% capacity!

IshmaelZ said:

Hartlepool = peak Johnson.

Hm, I wonder who could possibly have posted this two days before Hartlepool?

IshmaelZ said:

Lab surge incoming. Feels very like GE 2017 to me.

Con gain Hartlepool is now shorter than Con Maj 2017. It ain't right.

IshmaelZ said:

BigRich said:

If the LD do win, ( and I agree 20-1 seems far to pessimistic) then is this good or bad for SKS and Lab?

it could leave the impression that the Conservatives are beatable, just not by SKS.

11-2 now

Too skinny: that's 5.5-1, and the right price is probably 7.5-1

Fysics_Teacher said:

So the Lib Dems think they are Winning Here?

On these numbers, it would actually be ‘Lib Dems - losing slightly less badly here.’

dixiedean said:

Surprised to see a Green candidate. The anti-Tory vote split three ways.
If ever there were a candidate seat for a LD/Green pact it would be this one.
Sighs.
Tories to hang on with below 50% of the vote.

Though there is also a ReformUK candidate and there was no Brexit Party candidate in 2019

FPT, if we believe the polling, and can assume Reform U.K. will take no more than 2%, then we have something like (rounded)

Conservative 46
Lib Dem 35
Labour or Green 16
RefUK 2
Others 1

So Lib Dems need 2/3 of the Lab/Green vote.
It’s mathematically doable, but we don’t do that level of tactical voting in the U.K.

As someone points out, it would be strategically very valuable to Keir for the LDs to win this.
He should be sending a message.

BigRich said:

If the LD do win, ( and I agree 20-1 seems far to pessimistic) then is this good or bad for SKS and Lab?

it could leave the impression that the Conservatives are beatable, just not by SKS.

Good for Lab. Shows the Tories are beatable. And gives them a flank to watch.
There are far more Tory Mps in places similar to C+A than in the Red Wall.
By a country mile.
Won't happen though. Barring summat unexpected.

What's the old covid case numbers looking like? Do I have to start going all Tweak from South Park again?

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:

Surprised to see a Green candidate. The anti-Tory vote split three ways.
If ever there were a candidate seat for a LD/Green pact it would be this one.
Sighs.
Tories to hang on with below 50% of the vote.

Though there is also a ReformUK candidate and there was no Brexit Party candidate in 2019

Who?

Alex Wilson, a university contemporary of mine

https://twitter.com/reformparty_uk/status/1394581304285466625?s=20

BigRich said:

Just had a glance at my 2019 spreadsheet,

There are 80 Con seats with LD in second place,

C and A is 44 on that list in terms of the size of con majority.

But 17th most anti Brexit.

Only 47 of the 80 voted against Brexit, but most of the others where fairly close sub 55% (caveat: nobody actually know how constituencies voted, but estimates are probably fairly accurate)

I don't think this helps with deciding if its a good bet or not, but as I just looked it up I thought I would share.

A caveat to your caveat. They know in the very few places where the LA is exactly the same as the constituency.
C+A is one of these. As was Hartlepool.

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:

BigRich said:

If the LD do win, ( and I agree 20-1 seems far to pessimistic) then is this good or bad for SKS and Lab?

it could leave the impression that the Conservatives are beatable, just not by SKS.

Good for Lab. Shows the Tories are beatable. And gives them a flank to watch.
There are far more Tory Mps in places similar to C+A than in the Red Wall.
By a country mile.
Won't happen though. Barring summat unexpected.

Even if the Tories do hold Chesham if the LDs get a 9.35% swing as their internal polling suggests they would gain 27 Tory seats if repeated nationally, including claiming the scalps of Dominic Raab in Esher and Walton, John Redwood in Wokingham and Jeremy Hunt in Surrey SW. Such a result on its own would more than halve the Tory majority even if Labour did not gain a single Tory seat

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

Interesting. Some very big names there.
Collectively, probably more influential in the Party than all the new Northern Mps put together.

dixiedean said:

BigRich said:

Just had a glance at my 2019 spreadsheet,

There are 80 Con seats with LD in second place,

C and A is 44 on that list in terms of the size of con majority.

But 17th most anti Brexit.

Only 47 of the 80 voted against Brexit, but most of the others where fairly close sub 55% (caveat: nobody actually know how constituencies voted, but estimates are probably fairly accurate)

I don't think this helps with deciding if its a good bet or not, but as I just looked it up I thought I would share.

A caveat to your caveat. They know in the very few places where the LA is exactly the same as the constituency.
C+A is one of these. As was Hartlepool.

Thanks,

Does a caveat to a caveat, undermine it or buttress it?

I don't know but thanks for the extra information.

squareroot2 said:

What do the LD bar charts tell us?

Day in night, normally.

Has anyone kept tabs on how ‘internal party memos’ and internal polling have done over the years? It seems to have cropped up on more than one occasion...

Theuniondivvie said:

Has anyone kept tabs on how ‘internal party memos’ and internal polling have done over the years? It seems to have cropped up on more than one occasion...

Callaghan and Brown both chickened out of planned elections due to it. And then lost the subsequent election which was held at a less favourable time for them. Equally, Macmillan also made a decision to wait before calling an election due to internal polling suggesting he would get a majority of 13, and got a majority of 100 instead.

dixiedean said:

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:

BigRich said:

If the LD do win, ( and I agree 20-1 seems far to pessimistic) then is this good or bad for SKS and Lab?

it could leave the impression that the Conservatives are beatable, just not by SKS.

Good for Lab. Shows the Tories are beatable. And gives them a flank to watch.
There are far more Tory Mps in places similar to C+A than in the Red Wall.
By a country mile.
Won't happen though. Barring summat unexpected.

Even if the Tories do hold Chesham if the LDs get a 9.35% swing as their internal polling suggests they would gain 27 Tory seats if repeated nationally, including claiming the scalps of Dominic Raab in Esher and Walton, John Redwood in Wokingham and Jeremy Hunt in Surrey SW. Such a result on its own would more than halve the Tory majority even if Labour did not gain a single Tory seat

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

Interesting. Some very big names there.
Collectively, probably more influential in the Party than all the new Northern Mps put together.

A lot of heavyweights certainly and it would confirm the LDs are now the posh peoples party and the Tories increasingly the white working class party if the LDs win or get very close in Surrey and Bucks while the Tories win in Hartlepool and Batley and Spen (though I think the Tories will hold Chesham and most of their southern seats at a general election without by election protest vote and Labour will hold Batley, however the trend is clearly there)

MikeSmithson said:

Gardenwalker said:

FPT, if we believe the polling, and can assume Reform U.K. will take no more than 2%, then we have something like (rounded)

Conservative 46
Lib Dem 35
Labour or Green 16
RefUK 2
Others 1

So Lib Dems need 2/3 of the Lab/Green vote.
It’s mathematically doable, but we don’t do that level of tactical voting in the U.K.

As someone points out, it would be strategically very valuable to Keir for the LDs to win this.
He should be sending a message.

Remember Richmond Park where the LAB vote total was fewer than LAB members in the constituency.
I don't know whether the LDs achieved it but they have been aiming for 500 activists to be working there today and tomorrow.

How does a required C&A swing compare to some of the LD (and before them the Liberals) famous previous victories. I would guess it's doable on a good day, probably close anyway.

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:

BigRich said:

If the LD do win, ( and I agree 20-1 seems far to pessimistic) then is this good or bad for SKS and Lab?

it could leave the impression that the Conservatives are beatable, just not by SKS.

Good for Lab. Shows the Tories are beatable. And gives them a flank to watch.
There are far more Tory Mps in places similar to C+A than in the Red Wall.
By a country mile.
Won't happen though. Barring summat unexpected.

Even if the Tories do hold Chesham if the LDs get a 9.35% swing as their internal polling suggests they would gain 27 Tory seats if repeated nationally, including claiming the scalps of Dominic Raab in Esher and Walton, John Redwood in Wokingham and Jeremy Hunt in Surrey SW. Such a result on its own would more than halve the Tory majority even if Labour did not gain a single Tory seat

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

Interesting. Some very big names there.
Collectively, probably more influential in the Party than all the new Northern Mps put together.

A lot of heavyweights certainly and it would confirm the LDs are now the posh peoples party and the Tories increasingly the white working class party if the LDs win or get very close in Surrey and Bucks while the Tories win in Hartlepool and Batley and Spen (though I think the Tories will hold Chesham and most of their southern seats at a general election without by election protest vote and Labour will hold Batley, however the trend is clearly there)

I'm not convinced, (which is not the same as saying impossible) but at the last election, the LD though everything at these handful of seats with 'Tory heavy-waits' in remain voting areas, got a huge amount of tactical voting as the Lab vote collapsed, but still did not take them.

MikeSmithson said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

So the Lib Dems think they are Winning Here?

Interestingly they've changed their core slogan in C&A to "Demand Better" which I think is quite powerful.

Demand better...than Ed Davey!

dixiedean said:

Lancashire beat the dark side by an innings and have the best record in the country. A good day all told.

Not for Gloucestershire it wasn’t.

Mind you, could be worse. You have to feel sorry for any Middlesex supporters.

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

As well as pushing against Boris' Brexit in the 55% Remain area, the report also says the LDs are pushing a NIMBY agenda hard.

'In a letter to Tory by-election candidate Peter Fleet, Lib Dem MP Layla Moran urged him to condemn the government’s approach, writing: “Over the last two years the Conservative Party has received over £11m in donations from property developers.

“Local people are right to be angry at a Conservative Party that chooses to champion those who seek to build on the green belt rather than the views of local people in Chesham and Amersham.”

Clearly there has been a swing to the LDs there but the Tories should hold on unless the LDs can squeeze the Labour and Green vote to near zero

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/chesham-amersham-byelection-libdems-davey-b1856301.html

Isn’t HS2 likely to be an issue still as well? Especially given it’s finally under construction.

And Shapps just announced it is to go to Leeds

It is not going to be cancelled and they have started tunnelling in the Chilterns

That is good news, I hadn’t seen that. Although it looks as though they might be reducing the top speed a bit.

But I was thinking that the construction process itself will be disruptive and unpleasant. Lots of extra traffic, road closures, noise and pollution therefrom, etc.

Lines are never popular when being built (just look at how tough it was to build the original Grand Junction and Great Western mainlines, even including mustering private armies to confront recalcitrant companies).

It is really good news for the levelling up process and I agree there is going to be considerable disruption, indeed three years tunnelling under the Chilterns, but that is the price we have to pay to provide a modern high seed railway and at the same time allow the existing East and West coast mainlines to concentrate on more stopping services and services to local communities

BigRich said:

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:

BigRich said:

If the LD do win, ( and I agree 20-1 seems far to pessimistic) then is this good or bad for SKS and Lab?

it could leave the impression that the Conservatives are beatable, just not by SKS.

Good for Lab. Shows the Tories are beatable. And gives them a flank to watch.
There are far more Tory Mps in places similar to C+A than in the Red Wall.
By a country mile.
Won't happen though. Barring summat unexpected.

Even if the Tories do hold Chesham if the LDs get a 9.35% swing as their internal polling suggests they would gain 27 Tory seats if repeated nationally, including claiming the scalps of Dominic Raab in Esher and Walton, John Redwood in Wokingham and Jeremy Hunt in Surrey SW. Such a result on its own would more than halve the Tory majority even if Labour did not gain a single Tory seat

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

Interesting. Some very big names there.
Collectively, probably more influential in the Party than all the new Northern Mps put together.

A lot of heavyweights certainly and it would confirm the LDs are now the posh peoples party and the Tories increasingly the white working class party if the LDs win or get very close in Surrey and Bucks while the Tories win in Hartlepool and Batley and Spen (though I think the Tories will hold Chesham and most of their southern seats at a general election without by election protest vote and Labour will hold Batley, however the trend is clearly there)

I'm not convinced, (which is not the same as saying impossible) but at the last election, the LD though everything at these handful of seats with 'Tory heavy-waits' in remain voting areas, got a huge amount of tactical voting as the Lab vote collapsed, but still did not take them.

2019, the Lab --> LibDem swing in C&A was 10% from 2017, taking Labour from second to third. The LibDems need to be peeling significant numbers of Tories away. I think they would be telling us if that was happening!

The Tory vote in C&A has been in a remarkably narrow band between 1997 and 2019 - always between 50.4% and 60.7%

No 5th election in less than 3 years after all it seems, at least for now

A key Israeli opposition party has backed a unity government that would bring to an end Benjamin Netanyahu's time as the country's longest serving prime minister.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-57301075

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

As well as pushing against Boris' Brexit in the 55% Remain area, the report also says the LDs are pushing a NIMBY agenda hard.

'In a letter to Tory by-election candidate Peter Fleet, Lib Dem MP Layla Moran urged him to condemn the government’s approach, writing: “Over the last two years the Conservative Party has received over £11m in donations from property developers.

“Local people are right to be angry at a Conservative Party that chooses to champion those who seek to build on the green belt rather than the views of local people in Chesham and Amersham.”

Clearly there has been a swing to the LDs there but the Tories should hold on unless the LDs can squeeze the Labour and Green vote to near zero

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/chesham-amersham-byelection-libdems-davey-b1856301.html

Isn’t HS2 likely to be an issue still as well? Especially given it’s finally under construction.

And Shapps just announced it is to go to Leeds

It is not going to be cancelled and they have started tunnelling in the Chilterns

That is good news, I hadn’t seen that. Although it looks as though they might be reducing the top speed a bit.

But I was thinking that the construction process itself will be disruptive and unpleasant. Lots of extra traffic, road closures, noise and pollution therefrom, etc.

Lines are never popular when being built (just look at how tough it was to build the original Grand Junction and Great Western mainlines, even including mustering private armies to confront recalcitrant companies).

It is really good news for the levelling up process and I agree there is going to be considerable disruption, indeed three years tunnelling under the Chilterns, but that is the price we have to pay to provide a modern high seed railway and at the same time allow the existing East and West coast mainlines to concentrate on more stopping services and services to local communities

And (speaking as somebody who drives past the construction work and whose daily commute will be very disrupted as a result) I agree with you.

But there are huge numbers of NIMBYs in that seat, who backed StopHS2 even though they must have known Rukin was a dud. They’re not going to stop complaining because they’ve lost and what they feared would happen - disruption, noise, pollution etc. - has come about as a result.

There’s potential for the Lib Dems to tap into that sentiment for votes.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

As well as pushing against Boris' Brexit in the 55% Remain area, the report also says the LDs are pushing a NIMBY agenda hard.

'In a letter to Tory by-election candidate Peter Fleet, Lib Dem MP Layla Moran urged him to condemn the government’s approach, writing: “Over the last two years the Conservative Party has received over £11m in donations from property developers.

“Local people are right to be angry at a Conservative Party that chooses to champion those who seek to build on the green belt rather than the views of local people in Chesham and Amersham.”

Clearly there has been a swing to the LDs there but the Tories should hold on unless the LDs can squeeze the Labour and Green vote to near zero

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/chesham-amersham-byelection-libdems-davey-b1856301.html

Isn’t HS2 likely to be an issue still as well? Especially given it’s finally under construction.

And Shapps just announced it is to go to Leeds

It is not going to be cancelled and they have started tunnelling in the Chilterns

That is good news, I hadn’t seen that. Although it looks as though they might be reducing the top speed a bit.

But I was thinking that the construction process itself will be disruptive and unpleasant. Lots of extra traffic, road closures, noise and pollution therefrom, etc.

Lines are never popular when being built (just look at how tough it was to build the original Grand Junction and Great Western mainlines, even including mustering private armies to confront recalcitrant companies).

It is really good news for the levelling up process and I agree there is going to be considerable disruption, indeed three years tunnelling under the Chilterns, but that is the price we have to pay to provide a modern high seed railway and at the same time allow the existing East and West coast mainlines to concentrate on more stopping services and services to local communities

It will do absolutely nothing for the levelling up process or the North South divide. Making it quicker to get from the Midlands to London does nothing to help employment or investment in the North. The EU knew this more than 20 years ago when they commissioned an in depth report into the effects of high speed rail links on the provinces, notably in France. All it did was draw more investment away from the regions into Paris.

So what would make a difference then?

Andy_JS said:

C&A is the third least-deprived constituency in the country according to the chart someone posted a few weeks ago.

Ripe for levelling down then...

Gardenwalker said:

FPT, if we believe the polling, and can assume Reform U.K. will take no more than 2%, then we have something like (rounded)

Conservative 46
Lib Dem 35
Labour or Green 16
RefUK 2
Others 1

So Lib Dems need 2/3 of the Lab/Green vote.
It’s mathematically doable, but we don’t do that level of tactical voting in the U.K.

As someone points out, it would be strategically very valuable to Keir for the LDs to win this.
He should be sending a message.

I think there's a good chance both Labour and the Greens will be below 5%.

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

As well as pushing against Boris' Brexit in the 55% Remain area, the report also says the LDs are pushing a NIMBY agenda hard.

'In a letter to Tory by-election candidate Peter Fleet, Lib Dem MP Layla Moran urged him to condemn the government’s approach, writing: “Over the last two years the Conservative Party has received over £11m in donations from property developers.

“Local people are right to be angry at a Conservative Party that chooses to champion those who seek to build on the green belt rather than the views of local people in Chesham and Amersham.”

Clearly there has been a swing to the LDs there but the Tories should hold on unless the LDs can squeeze the Labour and Green vote to near zero

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/chesham-amersham-byelection-libdems-davey-b1856301.html

Isn’t HS2 likely to be an issue still as well? Especially given it’s finally under construction.

And Shapps just announced it is to go to Leeds

It is not going to be cancelled and they have started tunnelling in the Chilterns

That is good news, I hadn’t seen that. Although it looks as though they might be reducing the top speed a bit.

But I was thinking that the construction process itself will be disruptive and unpleasant. Lots of extra traffic, road closures, noise and pollution therefrom, etc.

Lines are never popular when being built (just look at how tough it was to build the original Grand Junction and Great Western mainlines, even including mustering private armies to confront recalcitrant companies).

It is really good news for the levelling up process and I agree there is going to be considerable disruption, indeed three years tunnelling under the Chilterns, but that is the price we have to pay to provide a modern high seed railway and at the same time allow the existing East and West coast mainlines to concentrate on more stopping services and services to local communities

And (speaking as somebody who drives past the construction work and whose daily commute will be very disrupted as a result) I agree with you.

But there are huge numbers of NIMBYs in that seat, who backed StopHS2 even though they must have known Rukin was a dud. They’re not going to stop complaining because they’ve lost and what they feared would happen - disruption, noise, pollution etc. - has come about as a result.

There’s potential for the Lib Dems to tap into that sentiment for votes.

On that I am sure you are right as are those who hate Brexit in that constituency

ydoethur said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

As well as pushing against Boris' Brexit in the 55% Remain area, the report also says the LDs are pushing a NIMBY agenda hard.

'In a letter to Tory by-election candidate Peter Fleet, Lib Dem MP Layla Moran urged him to condemn the government’s approach, writing: “Over the last two years the Conservative Party has received over £11m in donations from property developers.

“Local people are right to be angry at a Conservative Party that chooses to champion those who seek to build on the green belt rather than the views of local people in Chesham and Amersham.”

Clearly there has been a swing to the LDs there but the Tories should hold on unless the LDs can squeeze the Labour and Green vote to near zero

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/chesham-amersham-byelection-libdems-davey-b1856301.html

Isn’t HS2 likely to be an issue still as well? Especially given it’s finally under construction.

And Shapps just announced it is to go to Leeds

It is not going to be cancelled and they have started tunnelling in the Chilterns

That is good news, I hadn’t seen that. Although it looks as though they might be reducing the top speed a bit.

But I was thinking that the construction process itself will be disruptive and unpleasant. Lots of extra traffic, road closures, noise and pollution therefrom, etc.

Lines are never popular when being built (just look at how tough it was to build the original Grand Junction and Great Western mainlines, even including mustering private armies to confront recalcitrant companies).

It is really good news for the levelling up process and I agree there is going to be considerable disruption, indeed three years tunnelling under the Chilterns, but that is the price we have to pay to provide a modern high seed railway and at the same time allow the existing East and West coast mainlines to concentrate on more stopping services and services to local communities

It will do absolutely nothing for the levelling up process or the North South divide. Making it quicker to get from the Midlands to London does nothing to help employment or investment in the North. The EU knew this more than 20 years ago when they commissioned an in depth report into the effects of high speed rail links on the provinces, notably in France. All it did was draw more investment away from the regions into Paris.

So what would make a difference then?

Massively improved cross country links, a move of significant sections of the public sector out of the South East and up North. Prioritising the North and Midlands for ultra high speed internet. The sorts of investment that the Government (mostly Labour in that case) put into the former coal field areas.

To be fair a lot of these things the Government is doing. But there is a reason Mansfield went blue long before the red wall broke. It is because the Government at both local and national level looked at how to transform a post industrial landscape into something fit for purpose with modern businesses providing quality well paid jobs. Look at what is happening in the Tees Valley. These are the things that need doing across the North. Making it quicker to get from Leeds to London simply reinforces the idea that London matters more than Leeds. It is the wrong message and will, in the end, do nothing to create more employment and wealth in the Midlands and the North.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

As well as pushing against Boris' Brexit in the 55% Remain area, the report also says the LDs are pushing a NIMBY agenda hard.

'In a letter to Tory by-election candidate Peter Fleet, Lib Dem MP Layla Moran urged him to condemn the government’s approach, writing: “Over the last two years the Conservative Party has received over £11m in donations from property developers.

“Local people are right to be angry at a Conservative Party that chooses to champion those who seek to build on the green belt rather than the views of local people in Chesham and Amersham.”

Clearly there has been a swing to the LDs there but the Tories should hold on unless the LDs can squeeze the Labour and Green vote to near zero

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/chesham-amersham-byelection-libdems-davey-b1856301.html

Isn’t HS2 likely to be an issue still as well? Especially given it’s finally under construction.

And Shapps just announced it is to go to Leeds

It is not going to be cancelled and they have started tunnelling in the Chilterns

That is good news, I hadn’t seen that. Although it looks as though they might be reducing the top speed a bit.

But I was thinking that the construction process itself will be disruptive and unpleasant. Lots of extra traffic, road closures, noise and pollution therefrom, etc.

Lines are never popular when being built (just look at how tough it was to build the original Grand Junction and Great Western mainlines, even including mustering private armies to confront recalcitrant companies).

It is really good news for the levelling up process and I agree there is going to be considerable disruption, indeed three years tunnelling under the Chilterns, but that is the price we have to pay to provide a modern high seed railway and at the same time allow the existing East and West coast mainlines to concentrate on more stopping services and services to local communities

It will do absolutely nothing for the levelling up process or the North South divide. Making it quicker to get from the Midlands to London does nothing to help employment or investment in the North. The EU knew this more than 20 years ago when they commissioned an in depth report into the effects of high speed rail links on the provinces, notably in France. All it did was draw more investment away from the regions into Paris.

I respectfully disagree

The East and West coast mainlines are at capacity and HS2 will enable far more local traffic and services

Furthermore, in the age of climate change we could follow France and ban all internal flights of less than 2 and a half hours as HS2 would be the perfect answer

Nope. The answer is to make those journeys unnecessary. Indeed we already have. Have you been asleep for the last 14 months?

dixiedean said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

As well as pushing against Boris' Brexit in the 55% Remain area, the report also says the LDs are pushing a NIMBY agenda hard.

'In a letter to Tory by-election candidate Peter Fleet, Lib Dem MP Layla Moran urged him to condemn the government’s approach, writing: “Over the last two years the Conservative Party has received over £11m in donations from property developers.

“Local people are right to be angry at a Conservative Party that chooses to champion those who seek to build on the green belt rather than the views of local people in Chesham and Amersham.”

Clearly there has been a swing to the LDs there but the Tories should hold on unless the LDs can squeeze the Labour and Green vote to near zero

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/chesham-amersham-byelection-libdems-davey-b1856301.html

Isn’t HS2 likely to be an issue still as well? Especially given it’s finally under construction.

And Shapps just announced it is to go to Leeds

It is not going to be cancelled and they have started tunnelling in the Chilterns

That is good news, I hadn’t seen that. Although it looks as though they might be reducing the top speed a bit.

But I was thinking that the construction process itself will be disruptive and unpleasant. Lots of extra traffic, road closures, noise and pollution therefrom, etc.

Lines are never popular when being built (just look at how tough it was to build the original Grand Junction and Great Western mainlines, even including mustering private armies to confront recalcitrant companies).

It is really good news for the levelling up process and I agree there is going to be considerable disruption, indeed three years tunnelling under the Chilterns, but that is the price we have to pay to provide a modern high seed railway and at the same time allow the existing East and West coast mainlines to concentrate on more stopping services and services to local communities

It will do absolutely nothing for the levelling up process or the North South divide. Making it quicker to get from the Midlands to London does nothing to help employment or investment in the North. The EU knew this more than 20 years ago when they commissioned an in depth report into the effects of high speed rail links on the provinces, notably in France. All it did was draw more investment away from the regions into Paris.

Reasonably speed trains between Liverpool and Leeds and on to Hull would do more to level up.

100% agree. If you want to level up the North then start by making it as easy to get from one side of the country to the other as it is to get from Hull or Leeds to London.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

ydoethur said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

As well as pushing against Boris' Brexit in the 55% Remain area, the report also says the LDs are pushing a NIMBY agenda hard.

'In a letter to Tory by-election candidate Peter Fleet, Lib Dem MP Layla Moran urged him to condemn the government’s approach, writing: “Over the last two years the Conservative Party has received over £11m in donations from property developers.

“Local people are right to be angry at a Conservative Party that chooses to champion those who seek to build on the green belt rather than the views of local people in Chesham and Amersham.”

Clearly there has been a swing to the LDs there but the Tories should hold on unless the LDs can squeeze the Labour and Green vote to near zero

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/chesham-amersham-byelection-libdems-davey-b1856301.html

Isn’t HS2 likely to be an issue still as well? Especially given it’s finally under construction.

And Shapps just announced it is to go to Leeds

It is not going to be cancelled and they have started tunnelling in the Chilterns

That is good news, I hadn’t seen that. Although it looks as though they might be reducing the top speed a bit.

But I was thinking that the construction process itself will be disruptive and unpleasant. Lots of extra traffic, road closures, noise and pollution therefrom, etc.

Lines are never popular when being built (just look at how tough it was to build the original Grand Junction and Great Western mainlines, even including mustering private armies to confront recalcitrant companies).

It is really good news for the levelling up process and I agree there is going to be considerable disruption, indeed three years tunnelling under the Chilterns, but that is the price we have to pay to provide a modern high seed railway and at the same time allow the existing East and West coast mainlines to concentrate on more stopping services and services to local communities

It will do absolutely nothing for the levelling up process or the North South divide. Making it quicker to get from the Midlands to London does nothing to help employment or investment in the North. The EU knew this more than 20 years ago when they commissioned an in depth report into the effects of high speed rail links on the provinces, notably in France. All it did was draw more investment away from the regions into Paris.

So what would make a difference then?

Massively improved cross country links, a move of significant sections of the public sector out of the South East and up North. Prioritising the North and Midlands for ultra high speed internet. The sorts of investment that the Government (mostly Labour in that case) put into the former coal field areas.

To be fair a lot of these things the Government is doing. But there is a reason Mansfield went blue long before the red wall broke. It is because the Government at both local and national level looked at how to transform a post industrial landscape into something fit for purpose with modern businesses providing quality well paid jobs. Look at what is happening in the Tees Valley. These are the things that need doing across the North. Making it quicker to get from Leeds to London simply reinforces the idea that London matters more than Leeds. It is the wrong message and will, in the end, do nothing to create more employment and wealth in the Midlands and the North.

I do not see them as contrary to each other to be honest

Remember as the North develops high speed links from London to the North will be as invaluable as the other way round

Except the evidence shows that it doesn't happen. It is a myth.

ydoethur said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Has anyone kept tabs on how ‘internal party memos’ and internal polling have done over the years? It seems to have cropped up on more than one occasion...

Callaghan and Brown both chickened out of planned elections due to it. And then lost the subsequent election which was held at a less favourable time for them. Equally, Macmillan also made a decision to wait before calling an election due to internal polling suggesting he would get a majority of 13, and got a majority of 100 instead.

I think if you are having this debate you need to draw a clear distinction between “internal party polling” (kept confidential), and “selectively publicised internal polling”...

Richard_Tyndall said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

As well as pushing against Boris' Brexit in the 55% Remain area, the report also says the LDs are pushing a NIMBY agenda hard.

'In a letter to Tory by-election candidate Peter Fleet, Lib Dem MP Layla Moran urged him to condemn the government’s approach, writing: “Over the last two years the Conservative Party has received over £11m in donations from property developers.

“Local people are right to be angry at a Conservative Party that chooses to champion those who seek to build on the green belt rather than the views of local people in Chesham and Amersham.”

Clearly there has been a swing to the LDs there but the Tories should hold on unless the LDs can squeeze the Labour and Green vote to near zero

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/chesham-amersham-byelection-libdems-davey-b1856301.html

Isn’t HS2 likely to be an issue still as well? Especially given it’s finally under construction.

And Shapps just announced it is to go to Leeds

It is not going to be cancelled and they have started tunnelling in the Chilterns

That is good news, I hadn’t seen that. Although it looks as though they might be reducing the top speed a bit.

But I was thinking that the construction process itself will be disruptive and unpleasant. Lots of extra traffic, road closures, noise and pollution therefrom, etc.

Lines are never popular when being built (just look at how tough it was to build the original Grand Junction and Great Western mainlines, even including mustering private armies to confront recalcitrant companies).

It is really good news for the levelling up process and I agree there is going to be considerable disruption, indeed three years tunnelling under the Chilterns, but that is the price we have to pay to provide a modern high seed railway and at the same time allow the existing East and West coast mainlines to concentrate on more stopping services and services to local communities

It will do absolutely nothing for the levelling up process or the North South divide. Making it quicker to get from the Midlands to London does nothing to help employment or investment in the North. The EU knew this more than 20 years ago when they commissioned an in depth report into the effects of high speed rail links on the provinces, notably in France. All it did was draw more investment away from the regions into Paris.

I respectfully disagree

The East and West coast mainlines are at capacity and HS2 will enable far more local traffic and services

Furthermore, in the age of climate change we could follow France and ban all internal flights of less than 2 and a half hours as HS2 would be the perfect answer

Nope. The answer is to make those journeys unnecessary. Indeed we already have. Have you been asleep for the last 14 months?

That not a very pleasant response to be fair

We are all entitled to our views and respectfully disagree, which I do

dixiedean said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

As well as pushing against Boris' Brexit in the 55% Remain area, the report also says the LDs are pushing a NIMBY agenda hard.

'In a letter to Tory by-election candidate Peter Fleet, Lib Dem MP Layla Moran urged him to condemn the government’s approach, writing: “Over the last two years the Conservative Party has received over £11m in donations from property developers.

“Local people are right to be angry at a Conservative Party that chooses to champion those who seek to build on the green belt rather than the views of local people in Chesham and Amersham.”

Clearly there has been a swing to the LDs there but the Tories should hold on unless the LDs can squeeze the Labour and Green vote to near zero

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/chesham-amersham-byelection-libdems-davey-b1856301.html

Isn’t HS2 likely to be an issue still as well? Especially given it’s finally under construction.

And Shapps just announced it is to go to Leeds

It is not going to be cancelled and they have started tunnelling in the Chilterns

That is good news, I hadn’t seen that. Although it looks as though they might be reducing the top speed a bit.

But I was thinking that the construction process itself will be disruptive and unpleasant. Lots of extra traffic, road closures, noise and pollution therefrom, etc.

Lines are never popular when being built (just look at how tough it was to build the original Grand Junction and Great Western mainlines, even including mustering private armies to confront recalcitrant companies).

It is really good news for the levelling up process and I agree there is going to be considerable disruption, indeed three years tunnelling under the Chilterns, but that is the price we have to pay to provide a modern high seed railway and at the same time allow the existing East and West coast mainlines to concentrate on more stopping services and services to local communities

It will do absolutely nothing for the levelling up process or the North South divide. Making it quicker to get from the Midlands to London does nothing to help employment or investment in the North. The EU knew this more than 20 years ago when they commissioned an in depth report into the effects of high speed rail links on the provinces, notably in France. All it did was draw more investment away from the regions into Paris.

Reasonably speed trains between Liverpool and Leeds and on to Hull would do more to level up.

Which they’re also doing, and is closely tied to the building of both HS2 and HS3.

I’m not sure, Richard, that I agree about journeys becoming unnecessary. I think actually there’s likely to be increased demand for medium to long distance travel as people work from home more and therefore commute from further away. It’s the suburban network around London that decongests in your scenario.

Bottom line is, even on the most pessimistic scenarios HS2 will double capacity on the WCML. Now, that’s got to be good for those local services - like those to Cannock - which currently can’t get pathways due to congestion. And that again can only be beneficial to the people living there. Heck, even my old stomping ground in Aber will be helped, because the number of trains disrupted by capacity problems at New Street will go down significantly.

That said, it does of course require massive investment in high quality broadband as well. But again, to be fair - and I’m no fan of this government - that is another thing they are doing.

UK cases by specimen date

England PCR %

UK Hospitals

UK R

Age related data

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

As well as pushing against Boris' Brexit in the 55% Remain area, the report also says the LDs are pushing a NIMBY agenda hard.

'In a letter to Tory by-election candidate Peter Fleet, Lib Dem MP Layla Moran urged him to condemn the government’s approach, writing: “Over the last two years the Conservative Party has received over £11m in donations from property developers.

“Local people are right to be angry at a Conservative Party that chooses to champion those who seek to build on the green belt rather than the views of local people in Chesham and Amersham.”

Clearly there has been a swing to the LDs there but the Tories should hold on unless the LDs can squeeze the Labour and Green vote to near zero

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/chesham-amersham-byelection-libdems-davey-b1856301.html

Isn’t HS2 likely to be an issue still as well? Especially given it’s finally under construction.

And Shapps just announced it is to go to Leeds

It is not going to be cancelled and they have started tunnelling in the Chilterns

That is good news, I hadn’t seen that. Although it looks as though they might be reducing the top speed a bit.

But I was thinking that the construction process itself will be disruptive and unpleasant. Lots of extra traffic, road closures, noise and pollution therefrom, etc.

Lines are never popular when being built (just look at how tough it was to build the original Grand Junction and Great Western mainlines, even including mustering private armies to confront recalcitrant companies).

It is really good news for the levelling up process and I agree there is going to be considerable disruption, indeed three years tunnelling under the Chilterns, but that is the price we have to pay to provide a modern high seed railway and at the same time allow the existing East and West coast mainlines to concentrate on more stopping services and services to local communities

It will do absolutely nothing for the levelling up process or the North South divide. Making it quicker to get from the Midlands to London does nothing to help employment or investment in the North. The EU knew this more than 20 years ago when they commissioned an in depth report into the effects of high speed rail links on the provinces, notably in France. All it did was draw more investment away from the regions into Paris.

I respectfully disagree

The East and West coast mainlines are at capacity and HS2 will enable far more local traffic and services

Furthermore, in the age of climate change we could follow France and ban all internal flights of less than 2 and a half hours as HS2 would be the perfect answer

not if you live in Scotland , as usual we pay for it and get zero benefit

CFR

Magnificent day striding the countryside with family, kids, dog. I now have a sunburned forehead, a fat gin and tonic, and a well-seasoned ribeye ready to roll

Life is good.

It feels like we've all been let out of a dungeon