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The Indy publishes LD data suggesting that Chesham & Amersham could be competitive – politicalbettin
The Indy publishes LD data suggesting that Chesham & Amersham could be competitive – politicalbetting.com
Over the past week or so I have been suggesting that the best value political bet at the moment is the 20/1 or thereabouts that you can get on the LDs taking Chesham and Amersham which votes on June 17th. This has been reinforced by this report from the Independent .
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'In a letter to Tory by-election candidate Peter Fleet, Lib Dem MP Layla Moran urged him to condemn the government’s approach, writing: “Over the last two years the Conservative Party has received over £11m in donations from property developers.
“Local people are right to be angry at a Conservative Party that chooses to champion those who seek to build on the green belt rather than the views of local people in Chesham and Amersham.”
Clearly there has been a swing to the LDs there but the Tories should hold on unless the LDs can squeeze the Labour and Green vote to near zero
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/chesham-amersham-byelection-libdems-davey-b1856301.html
it could leave the impression that the Conservatives are beatable, just not by SKS.
Bad for Labour and the Labour left though as it means they have near zero chance of a majority and are not regaining seats in Brexit areas in the North and Midlands as Hartlepool and the local elections proved while the LDs are the main challengers to the Tories in the South not them
My read therefore is that this is about shoring up a secure second place, and backers of the LDs should be looking for the best moment to trade out.
This release from the LDs confirms my views: swing to LD, but no cigar.
If ever there were a candidate seat for a LD/Green pact it would be this one.
Sighs.
Tories to hang on with below 50% of the vote.
Conservative 46
Lib Dem 35
Labour or Green 16
RefUK 2
Others 1
So Lib Dems need 2/3 of the Lab/Green vote.
It’s mathematically doable, but we don’t do that level of tactical voting in the U.K.
As someone points out, it would be strategically very valuable to Keir for the LDs to win this.
He should be sending a message.
There are far more Tory Mps in places similar to C+A than in the Red Wall.
By a country mile.
Won't happen though. Barring summat unexpected.
There are 80 Con seats with LD in second place,
C and A is 44 on that list in terms of the size of con majority.
But 17th most anti Brexit.
Only 47 of the 80 voted against Brexit, but most of the others where fairly close sub 55% (caveat: nobody actually know how constituencies voted, but estimates are probably fairly accurate)
I don't think this helps with deciding if its a good bet or not, but as I just looked it up I thought I would share.
https://twitter.com/reformparty_uk/status/1394581304285466625?s=20
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
C+A is one of these. As was Hartlepool.
Collectively, probably more influential in the Party than all the new Northern Mps put together.
I don't know whether the LDs achieved it but they have been aiming for 500 activists to be working there today and tomorrow.
Hartlepool = peak Johnson.
Does a caveat to a caveat, undermine it or buttress it?
I don't know but thanks for the extra information.
“Demand Houses are built somewhere with poorer people”
“What do we want? Waitrose”
“Say no to Aldi. It only encourages them.”
Can you have “always” been anti something that is only a year old?
It is not going to be cancelled and they have started tunnelling in the Chilterns
But I was thinking that the construction process itself will be disruptive and unpleasant. Lots of extra traffic, road closures, noise and pollution therefrom, etc.
Lines are never popular when being built (just look at how tough it was to build the original Grand Junction and Great Western mainlines, even including mustering private armies to confront recalcitrant companies).
Mind you, could be worse. You have to feel sorry for any Middlesex supporters.
I don't think that they'll win C&A, but have a small bet from some weeks ago on them.
The difference between the 1983 landslide and 1992 near-defeat was largely driven by the distribution of non-Conservative votes. Insanely inefficient in 1983, really quite efficient by 1992, and incredibly so in 1997.
The Tory vote in C&A has been in a remarkably narrow band between 1997 and 2019 - always between 50.4% and 60.7%
A key Israeli opposition party has backed a unity government that would bring to an end Benjamin Netanyahu's time as the country's longest serving prime minister.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-57301075
But there are huge numbers of NIMBYs in that seat, who backed StopHS2 even though they must have known Rukin was a dud. They’re not going to stop complaining because they’ve lost and what they feared would happen - disruption, noise, pollution etc. - has come about as a result.
There’s potential for the Lib Dems to tap into that sentiment for votes.
The East and West coast mainlines are at capacity and HS2 will enable far more local traffic and services
Furthermore, in the age of climate change we could follow France and ban all internal flights of less than 2 and a half hours as HS2 would be the perfect answer
No possibility of new thinking. Same old, same old.
To be fair a lot of these things the Government is doing. But there is a reason Mansfield went blue long before the red wall broke. It is because the Government at both local and national level looked at how to transform a post industrial landscape into something fit for purpose with modern businesses providing quality well paid jobs. Look at what is happening in the Tees Valley. These are the things that need doing across the North. Making it quicker to get from Leeds to London simply reinforces the idea that London matters more than Leeds. It is the wrong message and will, in the end, do nothing to create more employment and wealth in the Midlands and the North.
Remember as the North develops high speed links from London to the North will be as invaluable as the other way round
Is nobody ever satisfied with anything?
We are all entitled to our views and respectfully disagree, which I do
I’m not sure, Richard, that I agree about journeys becoming unnecessary. I think actually there’s likely to be increased demand for medium to long distance travel as people work from home more and therefore commute from further away. It’s the suburban network around London that decongests in your scenario.
Bottom line is, even on the most pessimistic scenarios HS2 will double capacity on the WCML. Now, that’s got to be good for those local services - like those to Cannock - which currently can’t get pathways due to congestion. And that again can only be beneficial to the people living there. Heck, even my old stomping ground in Aber will be helped, because the number of trains disrupted by capacity problems at New Street will go down significantly.
That said, it does of course require massive investment in high quality broadband as well. But again, to be fair - and I’m no fan of this government - that is another thing they are doing.
So the existing inhabitants (whiter) get larger, cheaper properties + property value gain. The more recent arrivals (darker & also the poorer) get less space and higher cost.
The definition of Institutional Racism is a system whose outcome disadvantages minorities - whatever the intent.
Whether they Lib Dems can tap into that is a different question. ISTR they voted in favour of it, but I could be wrong.
Life is good.
It feels like we've all been let out of a dungeon
As before, cases rising in limited areas, and admissions also rising. Both are heavily skewed towards the un-vaccinated sections of the population