politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On a uniform swing Nicky Morgan’s Loughborough goes LAB eve

Amazing looking at that table that 3-1 was on offer for the Conservatives in Kingswood.

Pulpstar said:

ICM tables still not up - Do they normally take this long ?

They have until this evening to put them.

Patience

Mr. Me, The Scar [I think that was the title] is the only Mieville book I've read. Some interesting ideas in it. Sometimes felt like a bit of work to get through, though.

In my defence, the Kuhrisch have a great deal of sexual equality, and are definitely not along traditional lines (practically no taxation or central authority, they're bound by culture and a loose religion rather than lords).

There are advantages to sticking with a (rough) historically medieval approach to fantasy, people immediately understand what you mean by a castle, or portcullis, without having to try and get that information across without info-dumping. It's also easier to make a coherent and consistent world.

TwistedFireStopper said:

macisback said:

I would expect with a fair wind between now and the election the Tories to go well in the East Midlands, with those odds I would be putting my money on the Tories ahead of Labour. This seat in the main is a nice place to live, Morgan should hold this with reasonable comfort. I don't see any great passion for Labour in this sort of area and in the wwc chunks of which there are a few UKIP will take a chunk of Labour's vote.

The surrounding villages are very pleasant, but the town itself is rundown, gridlocked, with lots of empty shops and a student population that runs riot in termtime. A few million is being spent on tarting up the town centre, but unless they get car parking sorted out, that will be a waste of money. The big, traditional industries have gone, and the loss of Astra Zeneca was a big blow to the prestige of the town.
A recent report found that parts of the town are "virtually childless", due to the amount of family homes taken over by students. I haven't lived there for over a decade, but it was a grim place to live then, and it's only got worse.

Parts of the town are horrible but it is more pockets than general. Most of it is reasonably affluent my view it is a seat that Morgan should win.

Morris_Dancer said:

I enjoyed the diagram showing how complicated the EU is. It's almost as if a confederation of 28 nation-states is a bloody stupid idea.

Don't worry, that's just transitional while we fix it up as a nice, clean federation.

OldKingCole said:

Morris_Dancer said:

King Cole, the question of whether (fantasy) female dwarves should have beards or not is a deep and difficult philosophical question.

May change my mind (still on the first draft), but so far the Fettered (humanoid, claws, small tusks, really rough skin) are neuter. Also got a neuter cyborg-bear alien with a poor grasp of social boundaries in a short story [no idea if that'll get published or not].

There are issues with representations of certain groups in fantasy/sci-fi, but also a risk of trying to impose modern moral standards on a world which in most/all other regards is genuinely medieval.

I'm not a fan of people who claim equality = wonderful, and then write a storyline about men being led around by their trousers. Reminds me of the 'Minister for Women and Equalities' self-parody.

Ahem, rambling a bit now. And I've got a main character to kill (possibly).

Orcs (Tolkien) are asexual IIRC. However, Tolkien doesn't seem to concern himself much with reproductive possibilities. Probably down to a) a Victorian upbringing and b) being an Oxford don.
Can you direct me to some of your published works, Mr Dancer. PM if preferred.

Mr. Cole, Morris Dancer is oft times too modest for his own good (he certainly charges far too little for his books considering their quality), so just in case his modesty gets the better of him (and maybe in the hope of drumming up some extra custom from the rest of you), may I thoroughly recommend to you the tale of Sir Edric's Temple available at stupid prices from all good book sellers and, of course, Amazon:

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Sir-Edrics-Temple-Adventures-Edric-ebook/dp/B00GCAF2CI/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1405501710&sr=8-1&keywords=Sir+Edrics+Temple

At £1.79 fro the Kindle edition of £6.97 for the paper back, you will not be disappointed (read the reviews on Amazon for more detail).

Will this coalition cause the Lib Dems to have to change forever ? For the last 20 years or more, the LD's have done well as they were offering something different from Labour and Tories. Now it appears that they have signed up to most policies that Labour and Tories would have introducted, which previously they would have opposed.

From 2015, the LD's can't go back to being a left of centre liberal party, as few voters would find this convincing. So my expectation is that the LD's will have no option, but to be closer to the Tories in terms of policies, than they are to Labour. The Tories generally don't like governments interfering with markets, whereas Labour are more likely to introduce legislation which does have an influence on markets.

Some LD's will be very unhappy with them supporting the new data retention laws, which was rushed through the HOC yesterday. Some of these could move to The Greens.

Pulpstar said:

TGOHF said:

Pulpstar said:

TGOHF said:

ICM data tables not up yet ?

No - it is pissing me off that the "Gold Standard" is so bloody tardy getting their data up.

If nothing else to check the midlands scores wrt to Loughborough.

At a guess I think Con would be slightly ahead of Labour in the Midlands - the Midlands & Wales crosstabs with yougov are ~ 3 pts ahead for Labour.

Midlands ICM Lead Conservatives would be a very strong guess, but probably back from GE2010.

If we had a Parody PB, exchanges of emails bemoaning the delayed arrival of a regional subsample would definitely be worthy of inclusion.

Plato said:

SimonStClare said:

“vegetarian head of the pork pie society”. – is this a euphemism for something unspeakable?

LOL

I've been away from teh interwebs for a few days and came back to Haig and Gove and a blood bath! Golly, what a surprise those were.

I liked Grieve but he was far too keen on ECHR for my taste so he needed to go. And Hammond at the FO - good move.

I'm pretty happy with it all. What is the story behind Haig?

There are theories, best left to twitter

Socrates said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

OldKingCole said:

Morris_Dancer said:

King Cole, the question of whether (fantasy) female dwarves should have beards or not is a deep and difficult philosophical question.

May change my mind (still on the first draft), but so far the Fettered (humanoid, claws, small tusks, really rough skin) are neuter. Also got a neuter cyborg-bear alien with a poor grasp of social boundaries in a short story [no idea if that'll get published or not].

There are issues with representations of certain groups in fantasy/sci-fi, but also a risk of trying to impose modern moral standards on a world which in most/all other regards is genuinely medieval.

I'm not a fan of people who claim equality = wonderful, and then write a storyline about men being led around by their trousers. Reminds me of the 'Minister for Women and Equalities' self-parody.

Ahem, rambling a bit now. And I've got a main character to kill (possibly).

Orcs (Tolkien) are asexual IIRC. However, Tolkien doesn't seem to concern himself much with reproductive possibilities. Probably down to a) a Victorian upbringing and b) being an Oxford don.
Can you direct me to some of your published works, Mr Dancer. PM if preferred.

But the dwarves in LOTR are extremely sexually frustrated.

Who can forget Gimli's like of "nobody tosses a dwarf"

It's probably not helped by dwarf women having beards.

An assertion that has generated millions of pages of heated argument on the Internet.

Socrates said:

On the EU, did anyone else catch this bit from Juncker's speech?

In a speech to MEPs, he pledged the Commission would be a "political body", not just Europe's civil service.

He got sustained applause when he said the euro "protects Europe".

They're actually complete idiots in the parliament, aren't they? Completely impervious to reality. These men have ruined millions of peoples lives, and they can't even accept it.

The 250 who voted against Juncker aren't complete idiots. His supporters are.

Socrates said:

TGOHF said:

Clegg and Blair's school of choice gets a rap over the knuckles

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-28319015

"It found the school broke the code by:

Favouring parents for giving support, such as flower-arranging"

Immigration not an issue for Clegg

"It found the London Oratory School had the highest proportion of "white British" pupils, the lowest proportion of "non-white" pupils and the lowest proportion of pupils of African heritage."

Perhaps they could fix the latter issue by banning capable students from outside London, and bringing in more with criminal records. That's what the Metropolitan Police are doing.

The Metropolitan Police has been damaged by accusations and revelations of corruption.

How does it deal with that problem?

Recruit people with criminal records.

hucks67 said:

Some LD's will be very unhappy with them supporting the new data retention laws, which was rushed through the HOC yesterday. Some of these could move to The Greens.

Yes, I think this is potentially quite an important point. The article by Sunny Hundal, linked to by Financier earlier, makes the same point in rather stronger language:

All this doesn’t even make political sense any more. Since 2010 Labour has attracted a large chunk of ex-Lib Dem voters who abandoned the party because it broke their trust over Iraq, civil liberties and a host of related issues. What does Labour say about civil liberties to them after this? Why should they believe Labour will be different than in 2010? Ed Miliband’s calculation that they just won’t notice this, or will hold their nose because of their distaste for Nick Clegg, is cynical politicking at its worse.

IMO this is part of a wider issue: some at least of the current Labour support is there precisely because Ed Miliband's sheet of paper is still largely blank, apart from a few random scribblings (many of them subsequently crossed out). As he takes positions on various controversial issues, some of that support may melt away, disappearing in various different directions.

To an extent this is always true of any opposition; in mid-term, you can get away with being vague and not scaring any of the various horses, but under the scrutiny of an election campaign, and in writing a manifesto, that is much harder. This may be especially true this time round, given that Ed Miliband has (probably deliberately) failed to confront any issues which might fracture his coalition.

It's for this kind of reason that my central expectation is for a net swing away from Labour as the GE approaches. In particular, I'm not convinced that the 'Red LibDems' are as firmly in the bag as Mike and Nick P keep telling us. The civil liberties issue is one which may push some of them out of the bag. Others are immigration, public sector pay, and educational policy.

Sean_F said:

Socrates said:

TGOHF said:

Clegg and Blair's school of choice gets a rap over the knuckles

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-28319015

"It found the school broke the code by:

Favouring parents for giving support, such as flower-arranging"

Immigration not an issue for Clegg

"It found the London Oratory School had the highest proportion of "white British" pupils, the lowest proportion of "non-white" pupils and the lowest proportion of pupils of African heritage."

Perhaps they could fix the latter issue by banning capable students from outside London, and bringing in more with criminal records. That's what the Metropolitan Police are doing.

The Metropolitan Police has been damaged by accusations and revelations of corruption.

How does it deal with that problem?

Recruit people with criminal records.

People with spent convictions.

Something people are wilfully ignoring or just not aware about due to tabloid hysteria.

MaxPB said:

Another set of solid employment figures. The headline unemployment rate is down to 6.5% now, another ~500k jobs until it dips below 6%.

Pay is rising in all sectors outside of banking and finance, for which I'm sure you all have the greatest of sympathy...

The claimant count is still dropping so the leading indicator shows continued jobs growth.

Youth unemployment dropped as well which is good news, it will begin to approach the historic level of being double the national unemployment rate sooner rather than later which is great news.

I do wonder if Ed will bring up unemployment at all, the pay figures can be worked into his idiotic cost of living rubbish but everything else is so positive the PM could just make it look like Labour want bad news and are talking down the success of the British people and the economy to get a few headlines. If Ed doesn't mention the jobs news then I fully expect Cammo to go big on the penultimate answer to Ed to try and goad him into congratulating them.

Mr. Max, does not 6.5% unemployment overall indicate full employment in some areas? In fact if memory serves full employment was traditionally defined as an unemployment rate of 5% as there has to be churn and a pool to take up new jobs as they are created. If I am correct then there are areas in the country where wages will be rising above the level of inflation and/or pulling in more immigrants because there is actually a labour shortage. Those areas will be seeing the benefits of the recovery.

Of course, there will be other areas particularly those overly dependent on public sector jobs, that will have higher than average unemployment and who will be seeing little or no benefit from the recovery. In those areas the Labour message of a recovery only for millionaires may well ring true to many voters. However, as they probably mostly already vote Labour anyway the political effect will be minimal.

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

Socrates said:

TGOHF said:

Clegg and Blair's school of choice gets a rap over the knuckles

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-28319015

"It found the school broke the code by:

Favouring parents for giving support, such as flower-arranging"

Immigration not an issue for Clegg

"It found the London Oratory School had the highest proportion of "white British" pupils, the lowest proportion of "non-white" pupils and the lowest proportion of pupils of African heritage."

Perhaps they could fix the latter issue by banning capable students from outside London, and bringing in more with criminal records. That's what the Metropolitan Police are doing.

The Metropolitan Police has been damaged by accusations and revelations of corruption.

How does it deal with that problem?

Recruit people with criminal records.

People with spent convictions.

Something people are wilfully ignoring or just not aware about due to tabloid hysteria.

The fact that the convictions are spent doesn't necessarily fill me with confidence.

But the thing is, say someone out of character did a bad thing at 19, but has behaved impeccably for 5 years afterwards, be barred from a job?

Even Freshfields are hiring people with criminal records, some of them unspent.

HurstLlama said:

MaxPB said:

Another set of solid employment figures. The headline unemployment rate is down to 6.5% now, another ~500k jobs until it dips below 6%.

Pay is rising in all sectors outside of banking and finance, for which I'm sure you all have the greatest of sympathy...

The claimant count is still dropping so the leading indicator shows continued jobs growth.

Youth unemployment dropped as well which is good news, it will begin to approach the historic level of being double the national unemployment rate sooner rather than later which is great news.

I do wonder if Ed will bring up unemployment at all, the pay figures can be worked into his idiotic cost of living rubbish but everything else is so positive the PM could just make it look like Labour want bad news and are talking down the success of the British people and the economy to get a few headlines. If Ed doesn't mention the jobs news then I fully expect Cammo to go big on the penultimate answer to Ed to try and goad him into congratulating them.

Mr. Max, does not 6.5% unemployment overall indicate full employment in some areas? In fact if memory serves full employment was traditionally defined as an unemployment rate of 5% as there has to be churn and a pool to take up new jobs as they are created. If I am correct then there are areas in the country where wages will be rising above the level of inflation and/or pulling in more immigrants because there is actually a labour shortage. Those areas will be seeing the benefits of the recovery.

Of course, there will be other areas particularly those overly dependent on public sector jobs, that will have higher than average unemployment and who will be seeing little or no benefit from the recovery. In those areas the Labour message of a recovery only for millionaires may well ring true to many voters. However, as they probably mostly already vote Labour anyway the political effect will be minimal.

5% is a sort of marker for full employment, yes. In fact, it may now be a bit higher, since economic inactivity is plunging to new lows so there's less room for the labour market flexibility and female participation that drives full employment to manifest itself there instead of unemployment.

However I cannot help but think that 5% was rather cushy. It was certainly rather descriptive, rather than proscriptive, of the boom labour market. Both parties talk about "getting people make into work" and "making work pay", and both of these - particularly the latter - really sound like admissions that 5% is not the optimal floor.

Morris_Dancer said:

Incidentally, congrats to President Corporeal, who won the MkII Diplomacy game.

Didn't cock up too badly for a first timer, but still irked I didn't win.

An excellent win by Corporeal indeed, Congratulations.

The Death Match seems to have turned out differently to what the form book would have suggested at the outset, Germany must now be favourite to win.

As for the 2014 MK3 game: full respect to you, Mr. Dancer, but my money is on Turkey, played by Mr. Pulpstar. He has just stabbed his ally Italy and will no doubt stab uou in due course. That streak of ruthlessness will see him over the line.

The unemployment numbers are very decent and has some relevance to my ARSE.

When I modelled it (cue titters ....) I dialled in the unemployment rate for May 2015 @ 1.8M. it looks like I may have been a wee bit too cautious.

OldKingCole said:

HurstLlama said:

OldKingCole said:

Morris_Dancer said:

King Cole, the question of whether (fantasy) female dwarves should have beards or not is a deep and difficult philosophical question.

May change my mind (still on the first draft), but so far the Fettered (humanoid, claws, small tusks, really rough skin) are neuter. Also got a neuter cyborg-bear alien with a poor grasp of social boundaries in a short story [no idea if that'll get published or not].

There are issues with representations of certain groups in fantasy/sci-fi, but also a risk of trying to impose modern moral standards on a world which in most/all other regards is genuinely medieval.

I'm not a fan of people who claim equality = wonderful, and then write a storyline about men being led around by their trousers. Reminds me of the 'Minister for Women and Equalities' self-parody.

Ahem, rambling a bit now. And I've got a main character to kill (possibly).

Orcs (Tolkien) are asexual IIRC. However, Tolkien doesn't seem to concern himself much with reproductive possibilities. Probably down to a) a Victorian upbringing and b) being an Oxford don.
Can you direct me to some of your published works, Mr Dancer. PM if preferred.

Mr. Cole, Morris Dancer is oft times too modest for his own good (he certainly charges far too little for his books considering their quality), so just in case his modesty gets the better of him (and maybe in the hope of drumming up some extra custom from the rest of you), may I thoroughly recommend to you the tale of Sir Edric's Temple available at stupid prices from all good book sellers and, of course, Amazon:

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Sir-Edrics-Temple-Adventures-Edric-ebook/dp/B00GCAF2CI/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1405501710&sr=8-1&keywords=Sir+Edrics+Temple

At £1.79 fro the Kindle edition of £6.97 for the paper back, you will not be disappointed (read the reviews on Amazon for more detail).

Mr Llama I am grateful. At the risk of being accused of going wildly off topic, are you any nearer resolving the difficulty we discussed recently?

Mr. Cole, thanks for asking. No not really. Healthwise for me, personally, it is too much of a problem at the moment. However, collecting evidence for the bigger picture is quite hard and it may be beyond the scope of an individual (all the vested interests are lined up against and investigation). I think the best I might be able to hope for is to gather sufficient evidence that there is be a problem to be investigated and, perhaps, get a new 2015 MP to take up the case. I dunno.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

Socrates said:

Perhaps they could fix the latter issue by banning capable students from outside London, and bringing in more with criminal records. That's what the Metropolitan Police are doing.

The Metropolitan Police has been damaged by accusations and revelations of corruption.

How does it deal with that problem?

Recruit people with criminal records.

People with spent convictions.

The fact that the convictions are spent doesn't necessarily fill me with confidence.

But the thing is, say someone out of character did a bad thing at 19, but has behaved impeccably for 5 years afterwards, be barred from a job?

Even Freshfields are hiring people with criminal records, some of them unspent.

There are other occupations where it's reasonable that people should not have to disclose spent convictions, unless strictly relevant. When it comes to policing, past convictions will always be relevant.

I can understand that viewpoint.

I know I hold a minority view that not all criminals are recividists.

Like David Cameron I believe in giving people second chances

While I accept that past convictions will always be relevant to a job in policing, they simply need not be determinative. Those with some experience of the justice system from the other side but have turned a corner might even be less susceptible to corruption. Nor is there much reason to think that by the virtue of a minor conviction some time ago they'd be worse at their jobs. Also, taking too strict an approach would make a strange comparison between "squeeky clean" officers on entry and the reality of the police force (though I wish it was not so). Finally if anything the police service ought to be better able to handle those with minor convictions than other jobs (it being young men, range of duties, hierarchy) and so in some sense it could provide a valuable option to young men (in particular) who might otherwise really struggle.

TGOHF said:

JackW said:

The unemployment numbers are very decent and has some relevance to my ARSE.

When I modelled it (cue titters ....) I dialled in the unemployment rate for May 2015 @ 1.8M. it looks like I may have been a wee bit too cautious.

The economy seems to have completely exited the newscycle - it's fixed - will there be as much upside for the Cons as there was downside when it wasn't. There is growth, rising unemployment etc etc - so what ?

What gets the reporters excited is peedos, exiting Europe and demotions/promotions.

Will that change in the election cycle ? Should set your dials spinning..

That's actually a decent point. Voter complacency is a factor but is of less relevance where voters consider the government with a relatively successful economy behind it is likely to be re-elected as in 83/87 and in 01/05.

Next May a Coalition government is to be weighed in the balance with a poorly rated Opposition leader as the alternative.

HurstLlama said:

OldKingCole said:

HurstLlama said:

OldKingCole said:

Morris_Dancer said:

King Cole, the question of whether (fantasy) female dwarves should have beards or not is a deep and difficult philosophical question.

May change my mind (still on the first draft), but so far the Fettered (humanoid, claws, small tusks, really rough skin) are neuter. Also got a neuter cyborg-bear alien with a poor grasp of social boundaries in a short story [no idea if that'll get published or not].

There are issues with representations of certain groups in fantasy/sci-fi, but also a risk of trying to impose modern moral standards on a world which in most/all other regards is genuinely medieval.

I'm not a fan of people who claim equality = wonderful, and then write a storyline about men being led around by their trousers. Reminds me of the 'Minister for Women and Equalities' self-parody.

Ahem, rambling a bit now. And I've got a main character to kill (possibly).

Orcs (Tolkien) are asexual IIRC. However, Tolkien doesn't seem to concern himself much with reproductive possibilities. Probably down to a) a Victorian upbringing and b) being an Oxford don.
Can you direct me to some of your published works, Mr Dancer. PM if preferred.

Mr. Cole, Morris Dancer is oft times too modest for his own good (he certainly charges far too little for his books considering their quality), so just in case his modesty gets the better of him (and maybe in the hope of drumming up some extra custom from the rest of you), may I thoroughly recommend to you the tale of Sir Edric's Temple available at stupid prices from all good book sellers and, of course, Amazon:

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Sir-Edrics-Temple-Adventures-Edric-ebook/dp/B00GCAF2CI/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1405501710&sr=8-1&keywords=Sir+Edrics+Temple

At £1.79 fro the Kindle edition of £6.97 for the paper back, you will not be disappointed (read the reviews on Amazon for more detail).

Mr Llama I am grateful. At the risk of being accused of going wildly off topic, are you any nearer resolving the difficulty we discussed recently?

Mr. Cole, thanks for asking. No not really. Healthwise for me, personally, it is too much of a problem at the moment. However, collecting evidence for the bigger picture is quite hard and it may be beyond the scope of an individual (all the vested interests are lined up against and investigation). I think the best I might be able to hope for is to gather sufficient evidence that there is be a problem to be investigated and, perhaps, get a new 2015 MP to take up the case. I dunno.

There is unquestionably something there which needs investigation. If you require help or reasonably informed, if possibly a little out of date, background, feel free to ask.

If we are being allowed to plug our own books on pbc, I would like to draw attention to my new book [almost on topic], The Littletons of Teddesley Hall (www.penkridge.org.uk/pdfdocs/Publication1.pdf) which tells the story of Edward John Littleton (later Lord Hatherton) who constructed an early Whig/Tory coalition in Staffordshire and South Staffs (1812 - 1835) and in the process helped to bring down two governments - those of the Duke of Wellington and Earl Grey. Contact history@penkridge.org.uk

It seems odd that the Met can recruit people with a spent conviction to become serving police officers, but a Police and Crime Commissioner, who doesn't actually have to do any policing has to have led a completely blameless (or at least never been caught) life.

Incidentally, given the complete lack of interest last time, will they continue. Is there any evidence that they's been useful. And, what is the procedure when one dies, is convicted of an offence, or otherwise has to leave office?

frpenkridge said:

If we are being allowed to plug our own books on pbc, I would like to draw attention to my new book [almost on topic], The Littletons of Teddesley Hall (www.penkridge.org.uk/pdfdocs/Publication1.pdf) which tells the story of Edward John Littleton (later Lord Hatherton) who constructed an early Whig/Tory coalition in Staffordshire and South Staffs (1812 - 1835) and in the process helped to bring down two governments - those of the Duke of Wellington and Earl Grey. Contact history@penkridge.org.uk

Congratulations.

You might offer a few signed copies as prize for a PB competition ?

Theuniondivvie said:

Cammy going to rue the day?

Stewart Wood ‏@StewartWood 14 mins
An interesting tweet from Michael Gove's wife: "@SarahVine: A shabby day's work which Cameron will live to regret http://dailym.ai/Wgc5Ur "

She's been retweeting a few things in the past day that will make Dave rue the day

See people get upset about some people going to the Middle East to fight for ISIS, but, well you know....

Scots jihadist Abdul Raqib Amin who vowed to die for his beliefs reported to have been killed by Iraqi Army SWAT team

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/scots-jihadist-abdul-raqib-amin-3866449

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28317555 an interesting development - BRICS becoming more integrated.

EU
____
17.4 $T
3.6 $T Germany
2.7 $T France
2.5 $T UK

BRICS
_____
15.1 $T
8.2 $T China
2.7 $T Brazil


NAFTA
-----
20.0 $T
17.0 $T USA

(2013 figures - Source Wiki)

Mr. Penkridge, have you considered putting it up in e-book format?

If you have any queries about that, do feel free to send me a private message (it's not especially technical but I suspect we'd be the only two people interested in formatting and the like).

TheScreamingEagles said:

See people get upset about some people going to the Middle East to fight for ISIS, but, well you know....

Scots jihadist Abdul Raqib Amin who vowed to die for his beliefs reported to have been killed by Iraqi Army SWAT team

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/scots-jihadist-abdul-raqib-amin-3866449

He vowed to die for his beliefs, and it seems he has done so. Very ideologically pure.

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

See people get upset about some people going to the Middle East to fight for ISIS, but, well you know....

Scots jihadist Abdul Raqib Amin who vowed to die for his beliefs reported to have been killed by Iraqi Army SWAT team

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/scots-jihadist-abdul-raqib-amin-3866449

He vowed to die for his beliefs, and it seems he has done so. Very ideologically pure.

Am I alone in seeing certain similarities between such actions and the those of the young men who went off to fight in the Spanish Civil War?

Grandiose said:

Pulpstar said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28317555 an interesting development - BRICS becoming more integrated.

EU
____
17.4 $T
3.6 $T Germany
2.7 $T France
2.5 $T UK

BRICS
_____
15.1 $T
8.2 $T China
2.7 $T Brazil


NAFTA
-----
20.0 $T
17.0 $T USA

(2013 figures - Source Wiki)

Sorry Pulpstar, what am I looking at?

Just noting the BRICS have created a 'bank' - it hints at a greater economic cooperation between them all. I wonder if we left the EU if we would perchance join NAFTA - we are in the North Atlantic and share a common language (And culture to a limited degree...) with 2 of the 3 countries there. Perhaps a better fit than the EU ?

Edit: "America" would have to be changed to "Atlantic" in the acronym... !

Financier said:

"I don’t say this lightly: the DRIP bill farce has essentially shredded Ed Miliband’s credentials on civil liberties. The Labour leadership is acting as it did before 2010: pretending to be reluctant about signing away our rights because it is necessary. Then, we went from a demand to lock up people without trial for 14 days to demands for 90 days detention or else the terrorists would win."

says Sunny Hundal

http://labourlist.org/2014/07/ed-milibands-civil-liberties-credentials-are-now-in-tatters/

Did EdM ever have any civil liberties credentials to be shredded? As far as I'm aware, he's never disavowed previous Labour policies in this area so I have to assume that he was fine with ID cards, 90-day detention without trial and the rest.

Incidentally my own MP (G Jackson) did not vote against this legislation. A black mark. But she's retiring anyway.

JackW said:

Ken Clarke on the "Daily Politics" thinks the Tories win be the largest party after May 2015 and a Coalition government is the most viable option.

If the Lib Dems did agree, would they accept the same settlement? Cable could be vulnerable, but that means potentially the next environment or even education position might be a Lib Dem.

Grandiose said:

Pulpstar said:

Grandiose said:

Pulpstar said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28317555 an interesting development - BRICS becoming more integrated.

EU
____
17.4 $T
3.6 $T Germany
2.7 $T France
2.5 $T UK

BRICS
_____
15.1 $T
8.2 $T China
2.7 $T Brazil


NAFTA
-----
20.0 $T
17.0 $T USA

(2013 figures - Source Wiki)

Sorry Pulpstar, what am I looking at?

Just noting the BRICS have created a 'bank' - it hints at a greater economic cooperation between them all. I wonder if we left the EU if we would perchance join NAFTA - we are in the North Atlantic and share a common language (And culture to a limited degree...) with 2 of the 3 countries there. Perhaps a better fit than the EU ?

I got the bank part, but wasn't sure what the figures represented. Is it the contribution to total GDP?

It is the GDP of each bloc and the largest contributors to that - BRICS is dominated by China, and NAFTA by the USA.

NickPalmer said:

Interesting discussion on recidivism. Anecdote warning, but I work round the corner from Highbury Magistrates' Court and regularly lunch on a sandwich on the benches outside, which usually has diverse bored offenders waiting for hearings, and I chat to them if they want to, to try to get a bit more idea of what they think about life. What's really striking is the complexity of the mess they're in - e.g. the former GBH chap I was talking to yesterday was perfectly affable, quite cheerful and seemingly reasonably fit, but he said he was homeless about half the year, in and out, spent a lot of time trying to get a job and succeeding with the occasional odd temporary doorman/bouncer slot, seriously addicted to Red Bull (showed me his carrier bag with 10 cans, which he said was his usual daily amount) and admitted he had a problem in overreacting to anyone who rubbed him up the wrong way. I said mildly that maybe the last two were related, and he said yeah, maybe there was something in that - apparently a new thought.

That's just one example. The point, I think, is that many offenders don't want to go back into it, but they need support and advice from several angles, not just a job.

One of the farcical things about prison is that, when they are released, a lot of prisoners are released with nothing more than a train ticket and a discharge grant of 40 odd quid

JackW said:

Ken Clarke on the "Daily Politics" thinks the Tories win be the largest party after May 2015 and a Coalition government is the most viable option.

That would seem an eminently sensible viewpoint - mildly optimistic but very realistic. I suspect Labour bods are saying they will "win" the next election but when pressed as to whether that means most seats or a majority are probably going "Most seats for sure" - again optimistic but realistic.

Peter_the_Punter said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

See people get upset about some people going to the Middle East to fight for ISIS, but, well you know....

Scots jihadist Abdul Raqib Amin who vowed to die for his beliefs reported to have been killed by Iraqi Army SWAT team

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/scots-jihadist-abdul-raqib-amin-3866449

He vowed to die for his beliefs, and it seems he has done so. Very ideologically pure.

Am I alone in seeing certain similarities between such actions and the those of the young men who went off to fight in the Spanish Civil War?

Only if you're making the connection with those who went to fight on the Fascist side. Those - like Orwell - went to fight on the side of the elected government and against fascism. I find it hard to see any similarity between people like him and people who go off to fight for a violent, anti-Semitic, anti-democratic, theocratic cult.