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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On a uniform swing Nicky Morgan’s Loughborough goes LAB eve
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On a uniform swing Nicky Morgan’s Loughborough goes LAB even if CON win most votes nationally
The seat highlighted is Nicky Morgan’s Loughborough which as can be seen would go LAB even though EdM’s party would be behind on national vote share. This would be the 316th LAB seat leaving the party ten short of an overall majority.
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I'd favour Lab in this seat thanks to all those juicy, squeezable LibDems, but not by much.
No bet though.
No such thing as a uniform swing, far better bets than 10-11 on labour here.
No sign of the Tories repeating that ICM feat with YouGov where Labour's lead remains firm and resolute.
Last night’s YG poll was an equal/historic low for the Lib Dem at just 6%. - they've lost 40% of their entire support since the end of last week.
35 seats at the next GE is starting to look a tad optimistic.
I think the Labour vote is fairly WWC and may not be enthused by Milibandism. The LD vote will be squeezed particularly by tactical voting and Tuition fees. There is a not insignificant BNP vote in recent years that should go UKIP but I do not think it very fertile kipper territory. Nicky Morgan is a popular MP who does good constituency work.
It will be close either way, but looks like a Labour gain to me. If Nicky Morgan does well with the Education brief she may hang on, Universities fall outside her patch but are particularly influenced by educational issues generally.
I lived in a similar nearby constituency which had a high profile Labour MP and I experienced this factor myself when canvassing for the Young Conservatives, many,many moons ago.
A boost from first-time incumbency is pretty much assured, unless that incumbent has made herself unpopular. By all accounts, Nicky Morgan is well-regarded locally.
Allowing for this, I'd say she's really starting with a lead of 10% or so. Labour have to be 4% ahead on the day to be favourites here.
He, Baxter, also has Simon Hughes losing in Bermondsey with 28.9%, well behind his predicted share for Labour of 36.1%.
Focussing on particular marginals may make for interesting threads and betting tips over the summer.
LDs will be vanishing here, but not all to Labour.
Fortunately in rural Hertfordshire the sun is shining on the righteous and all genitalia is exactly where it should be.
UNS is of course fun and allows us to play with various tools .... Oh er missus .... but it's relevance to individual seats is questionable.
We must also be careful not to ascribe to the coming election some "certainties" that are almost certainly far from certain anymore - especially the theory of the certainty of a large Conservative lead - 6/7% required before the Conservative achieve a seat advantage over Labour.
There is one certainty this morning .... Mrs JackW and I will enjoy a hearty breakfast on the terrace where UNS - Unlimited Northumberland Sausages will come fully into play.
Here's why.
The Tories could achieve a seat advantage over Labour on a smaller swing. Yes, of course, it is possible.
But to achieve that they have to do disproportionately better in precisely the marginals the two will be at loggerheads; both CON-LAB as well as LAB-CON.
In this "game" both parties, indeed all parties, know the score. Amongst "all" I am including both GE2010 LD's and, to help the Tories, the current UKIPers.
It is perfectly possible, more so than in other places, the red GE2010 LD's will move to Labour on a larger than normal switch AND some UKIPers will return to the Tory mother more than elsewhere despite what some of the vociferous kippers in PB say.
The beauty of UNS is that it is assumed that all these counter currents even out.
But the Tories have not done well in marginals before. E.g 1992 as well as 2010. In both the Tories had big electoral leads, 1992 gave a majority of +21. 2010 , as we know, -34.
Let's see what pans out. I think on low swing rates, UNS works quite well. In fact, red LD's and UKIPers might even assist Labour.
2010 is more normal.
Sticks to what he believes in: 25 (-6)
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/z70f0ypdyt/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-150714.pdf
As I understand it, in 2010 there were a lot of non-voters in Labour heartlands which didn't impact the seat tally. Consequently they got a lot more seats than you might expect for 29% of the vote.
To the extent that this is reversed - EdM is new, appeals to the old core, etc - then you could gain significant vote share but no seats as the effect unwinds.
I posted my renewal application on the day before news broke of delays in the system, and my replacement passport arrived 30 days later. My son posted his renewal application off last Wednesday, and his replacement arrived yesterday. Both were standard renewals.
Having said that, Newark showed the Tories have sharpened up their game which was to be honest dreadful. However, how much attention they can devote in a General Election remains to be seen.
British elections need foot soldiers !
Otherwise, I had understood from here that incumbency was critical to the LDs outperforming. Have I got that wrong or are there significant caveats for first time MPs/ conservatives looking to it?
Labour had a lead of 247 seats over the Conservatives.
Conversely a lot of the vote that has been lost from the libdems was previous tactiical voters who voted to keep the tories out and ended up with them anyway, and alos the deluded element who seemed to think that a junior partner in a coalition dictates terms and gets to enact their whole manifesto., and this should lead to their vote being much more efficient, and the labour vote should be inflated with some wasted votes..
Therefore I think it is not entirely correct to say "In fact the Tories would still be losing seats to LAB even if they had a 6% national vote lead." Whilst this is possible it is not fact and some of the factors which have led to that assumption could easily fall away
http://zelo-street.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/these-people-say-ed-is-weird.html
Andy Reed, the previous Labour incumbant was a popular local figure, but more interested in playing Rugby, and blindly voting whatever way the whips told him to vote.
Morgan is cut from the same cloth. Likes to get in the Loughborough Echo, pretty much toes the party line.
The Labour ppc doesn't seem up to much, the Lib Dems are nowhere. UKIP don't have much of a presence, and, hopefully, the BNP are a busted flush.
Not a lot going for any of 'em, really. I'll keep you posted!
The reshuffle has not been completed and it already looks like a mini civil war may have started in the Tory party. Depending on what happens, it could blow up to a full scale fight just when Cammo has sought to calm the waters.
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2014/07/the-dumbed-down-reshuffle.html
A vastly qualified. experienced chap replaced by a WOMAN! A WOMAN!
It makes no sense, it's a mistake, and you know it's going to end very badly.
Marvel Comics recasts superhero Thor as a woman
Character based on the hammer-wielding god of thunder from Norse myth is swapping sex in a new series due in October
http://www.theguardian.com/books/2014/jul/15/thor-is-a-woman-in-new-marvel-comicbook-series
(Yes, I know I said the same about when they cast a woman as Starbuck)
Mr. Eagles, surely she'd be Thora? Or Thorkatla? [I was flicking through the names in the back of Njal's Saga the other day].
Not seen the Thor films, but I'm surprised that didn't just go for a female character, such as Freyja.
I think this sort of thing only matters if the demographic in question is a key aspect of the character. So, James Bond could easily be black or ethnically Asian/Chinese, but would always have to be a British man.
I do wonder if this is just about creating PR to try and keep Marvel's immense momentum going, but could easily be seen as gimmicky and tokenism.
Edited extra bit: also, Supermodels of SHIELD annoyed me with their Asgard episode. I think it's fine to have a world where men and women are the same, or one where you go for differences, but you can't have women be equally competent and men hamstrung by ye olde traditional weaknesses. It's just inconsistent.
http://www.usmagazine.com/uploads/assets/articles/67939-discover-jaimie-alexanders-beauty-secret-at-thor-premiere-in-revealing-dress/1383947617_jaimie-alexander-zoom.jpg
I'd do horrible, unforgivable things for a chance to swing my hammer at her.
You should see The Thor films and The Avengers, Chris Hemsworth is brilliant as Thor, but the star is Tom Hiddleston as Loki.
Lab 9464
Con 8063
LDem 1419
UKIP 1292
Others 1177 .
I hope to have this done by next week.
Nice for Force India, perhaps helpful for Williams/Red Bull.
Angelina Jolie as Blade ?
I've heard that she isn't actually Thor, she just finds his hammer and so gets his err powers though ... ?
Edited extra bit: and whilst we're miles off-topic, the first two Honor Harrington books by David Weber are currently free on Amazon (e-book only, of course). Not read any of his stuff before, but £0 is precisely in my preferred price range.
Quite a pleasant little town, Loughborough, and very efficient community hospital.
Looking at the numbers behind today's YouGov, (34/38/6/13) the VI for each party becomes:
Cons: 34.46; LAB: 37.99; LD: 6.37; UKIP: 13.05.
So LAB lead of 3.53.
Yesterday;s YouGov of 35/38/8/10 becomes:
Cons: 34.6; LAB: 37.6; LD: 7.8; UKIP: 10.2
So LD have lost 1.43 between the two polls.
This month the LD2010 retained VI has ranged from 25-36, whilst in June the range was: 24-32., and in May 24-39.
Lab 7993 (35.1%)
Con 7088 (31.1%)
UKIP 5584 (24.5%)
LD 2034 (8.9%)
The first was a chap who got turned into a lady and then back into a chap (not sure if his name was actually Hermaphrodite, but it might've been). He annoyed Hera by telling her (to settle an argument between her and Zeus) women enjoyed sex more than men.
The other's Dionysus, who is best thought of as a cross between Freddie Krueger and Freddie Mercury. He's a drunken, murderous, cross-dressing party god, far darker and more vicious than the Roman equivalent Bacchus.
I have it as a Labour gain.
May change my mind (still on the first draft), but so far the Fettered (humanoid, claws, small tusks, really rough skin) are neuter. Also got a neuter cyborg-bear alien with a poor grasp of social boundaries in a short story [no idea if that'll get published or not].
There are issues with representations of certain groups in fantasy/sci-fi, but also a risk of trying to impose modern moral standards on a world which in most/all other regards is genuinely medieval.
I'm not a fan of people who claim equality = wonderful, and then write a storyline about men being led around by their trousers. Reminds me of the 'Minister for Women and Equalities' self-parody.
Ahem, rambling a bit now. And I've got a main character to kill (possibly).
1. That Labour turnout is likely to be better in their safe seats than 2010.
2. Most significantly that lots of tactical voters who supported the Lib Dems in seats Labour has no chance in will vote Labour in disgust. These are wasted votes which will reduce Labour's efficiency.
3. That the tory tendency to pile up wasted super majorities in safe seats will be moderated by UKIP.
4. That if the tories are ahead in the overall vote then as a matter of logic they will be doing better in the marginals than they did the last time since their votes have to come from somewhere.
5. That picking up Lib Dem seats in the SW will improve tory efficiency because they had lots of good seconds there the last time. And as some say in F1 second is first loser.
Loughborough will be an interesting test of the theory but it is important to remember the last result was achieved on a 7% lead for the tories. Even if they were 3% ahead this time that is a 2% swing against our new Secretary of State for Education. She is swimming up river on any result that looks remotely likely at the moment.
My guess is that her profile and first time incumbency will save her but it will not be easy or other than close.
Kirkup - mysteriously dropped from the Telegraph's daily e-briefing - is interesting as usual, this time on the parallels between Gove and Lansley:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10969813/Gove-pays-price-for-picking-one-fight-too-many.html
Essentially Cameron isn't loyal to mould-breakers when the backlash gets too fierce. That's not making a judgement on whether the respective moulds needed breaking, just a mangement style observation. The parallels with Blair break down on that - Blair's instinct when he encountered opposition was to give a zillion interviews with the fiercest critics and try to turn opinion around: my impression was that he positively enjoyed the process and would have liked a Euro referendum partly for the sheer fun of taking on and perhaps changing public opinion. Cameron lets the changes quietly take effect and then dismisses the architect.
Clearly some of their respective changes were good and some not, and we could argue about that. But management style is important as a motivator for Ministers.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-28319015
"It found the school broke the code by:
Favouring parents for giving support, such as flower-arranging"
Immigration not an issue for Clegg
"It found the London Oratory School had the highest proportion of "white British" pupils, the lowest proportion of "non-white" pupils and the lowest proportion of pupils of African heritage."
MOE however defined is certainly not the same for all polling companies. If you doubt me just look at the small fluctuations between successive YouGov Sunday Times polls and compare them with the huge fluctuations between successive Ashcroft polls.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28316810
I enjoyed the diagram showing how complicated the EU is. It's almost as if a confederation of 28 nation-states is a bloody stupid idea.
Also worth pointing out that Loughborough itself has a population just shy of 60,000 putting it comfortably in the range of 10,000 - 100,000 that I think of as defining the Middle England Towns and Their Hinterlands identified on pb.com as the location of most key marginals.
If any enterprising polling company wants to know where they should target their efforts they could do a lot worse than polling just people in the postcodes covered by METTHs and forgetting the rest of the country.
A recent report found that parts of the town are "virtually childless", due to the amount of family homes taken over by students. I haven't lived there for over a decade, but it was a grim place to live then, and it's only got worse.
I do howevr think in urban SW seats the Lib Dems will turn out where they face the Conservatives and they'll probably pick up a smidgen from I believe thier 'true' polling now of 8%.
10% for the Lib Dems at the next GE...
Down 121k to 2.1m between March and May.
Apologies for the lack of Yellow Boxes to greet this joyous news.
08:58: BBC Radio 4 More on sausage-gate. Apparently the sausage makers met in a plush hotel in Hamburg and then kept in touch by phone to collude on prices, says the BBC's Steve Evans on the Today programme. There have been fines for collusion by other German manufacturers recently, including in the beer and sugar industries. Steve says people are asking if business is just too cosy in Germany.
So it's really disappointing that so many fantasy novels stick rigidly to a medieval/patriarchal instead of trying something more interesting.
I don't know if you have ever read China Mieville's book Perdido Street Station, but he did something memorably weird with an insectoid species.
Midlands ICM Lead Conservatives would be a very strong guess, but probably back from GE2010.
Can you direct me to some of your published works, Mr Dancer. PM if preferred.