With everything going so well for BoJo could he be tempted to go for an early election? – politicalb
With everything going so well for BoJo could he be tempted to go for an early election? – politicalbetting.com
As can be seen from the betdata.io betting chart there has been something of a move to an earlier election. This is due to take place in 2024 at the latest and it could just be that Johnson might at any time cash in his popularity and go to the country earlier.
Comments
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No.0
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Don’t travel to amber list countries, says No 10 despite no ban https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/17/dont-travel-to-amber-list-countries-says-no-10-despite-no-ban0
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They were fucking warned...
Frost says the "fundamental problem" for the UK is the way the NI protocol if "undermining the Good Friday Agreement rather than supporting it".
"That wasn't what the protocol was meant to do. And if it is doing it, then it isn't working right"
https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/13942923081960816701 -
This seems extremely unlikely.2
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Define early? It's tricky, because in the good old days you had five years but you used to go after four if it looked like you'd win again. As I understand Boris has 4.5 years, so really the normal time would be 3.5 years (assuming he wants a Spring election). But then someone said the other day the Tories need to wait until July 2023 to get the boundary changes through, so it's not straightforward.
But he won't be calling an election before 2023.1 -
I don't think thsat is right. The latest a general election can take place is May 2024.tlg86 said:Define early? It's tricky, because in the good old days you had five years but you used to go after four if it looked like you'd win again. As I understand Boris has 4.5 years, so really the normal time would be 3.5 years (assuming he wants a Spring election). But then someone said the other day the Tories need to wait until July 2023 to get the boundary changes through, so it's not straightforward.
But he won't be calling an election before 2023.0 -
Guido quotes the ONS today with the estimate that the pandemic and lockdown to date has cost the taxpayer a cool USD372bn. And that's to May 2021.
Over the next 18 months Johnson & co will be trying to plug gaps and get some of that back. So no, there won't be an early election.
In fact, it would not surprise me if the colossal bill for covid/lockdown is now driving the agenda. It would explain why Johnson, after countless cave-ins, is suddenly standing up to SAGE.
He simply cannot afford not to.0 -
Yes, so 4.5 years after Dec 2019.MikeSmithson said:
I don't think thsat is right. The latest a general election can take place is May 2024.tlg86 said:Define early? It's tricky, because in the good old days you had five years but you used to go after four if it looked like you'd win again. As I understand Boris has 4.5 years, so really the normal time would be 3.5 years (assuming he wants a Spring election). But then someone said the other day the Tories need to wait until July 2023 to get the boundary changes through, so it's not straightforward.
But he won't be calling an election before 2023.0 -
FPT
Cyclefree said: "It's curious how most focus is on the anti-Semitic nature of this abuse but not so much on the anti-women nature. It's almost as if it's taken as a given that extremists and haters would naturally threaten sexual violence against a minority group's women when wanting to do them harm.
"Christina Lamb has written very movingly about this in her book "Our Bodies, Their Battlefields". It is a very necessary but horrific read."
"This doesn't just raise questions about people's attitudes to Jews but about their attitude to women as well."
TimT responded:
Indeed, it is a depressing feature of many non-traditional wars. Such wars tend to be more personal and hence more vicious. We've seen the weaponization of rape in the break up of Yugoslavia, in ISIS' reign in Kirkuk, in Boko Haram, by the Burmese military against the Rohingya, the Chinese against the Uighurs, and now by Ethiopians and Eritreans in Tigre. Alas, it does not seem confined to one culture or one religion.1 -
FPT
"Suck it up, baby.
Big help having such a visible example of 'Civic Unionism' at the weekend with which to compare and contrast of course."
@Theuniondivvie
Wow - you seem a little bit unhinged about football fans celebrating a football win.0 -
Yes, pre-FTPA, 2023 would have been considered the 'normal' election date for a government in the lead as evidenced by the sequences 79/83/87 and 97/01/05. So, post-FTPA would 3yrs 8months (say) actually even be thought of as an 'early' election.0
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Yes, I think Boris will go to the country early if he has a huge lead, or retire to spend more time with his family and anyone who will pay him handsomely for making a speech. I cannot see what is in it for him if he needs to hang on to the last minute because that would imply he risks losing, which is bad for his ego and his price tag.0
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This Frost testimony is a great demonstration of what Brexit boosterism sounds like when not carried by Boris Johnson's exuberant voice and delivered instead by a charisma-free apparatchik.
Bit short on substance.
Reminds me a bit of this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H8dZwXnMrRU
https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/13942935601287045180 -
BREAKING: The Supreme Court agrees to take up a major abortion case that will give the court an opportunity to reconsider Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey. The case involves the constitutionality of Mississippi’s ban on most abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy.
https://twitter.com/SCOTUSblog/status/1394284425224114176
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They’re the wrong sort of football fans. If it was Celtic it would be less of an issue with many nationalists.JBriskin3 said:FPT
"Suck it up, baby.
Big help having such a visible example of 'Civic Unionism' at the weekend with which to compare and contrast of course."
@Theuniondivvie
Wow - you seem a little bit unhinged about football fans celebrating a football win.4 -
Perhaps you would be a little..er..unhinged if thousands of drunken, violet bigots had trashed your city centre twice in two months.JBriskin3 said:FPT
"Suck it up, baby.
Big help having such a visible example of 'Civic Unionism' at the weekend with which to compare and contrast of course."
@Theuniondivvie
Wow - you seem a little bit unhinged about football fans celebrating a football win.
Though I believe you live in Aberdeen, which would invite an obvious if unkind rejoinder.0 -
Yup. The left-wing-nationalists are allergic to the Union flag i.e. the flag of their country. Yet it's all milk and honey if you fly the saltire or the tri-colourTaz said:
They’re the wrong sort of football fans. If it was Celtic it would be less of an issue with many nationalists.JBriskin3 said:FPT
"Suck it up, baby.
Big help having such a visible example of 'Civic Unionism' at the weekend with which to compare and contrast of course."
@Theuniondivvie
Wow - you seem a little bit unhinged about football fans celebrating a football win.1 -
I can't see it. Is there anything which he currently can't do with a 80 seat majorty which he could do with a 100+ plus majority.
I'm convinced as well that one reason labour did well in 2017 is that the electorate did not look favourably on T May having a snap election for what was seen to be party polictics.2 -
I thought Modern Monetary Theory held that deficits are irrelevant and you can print money for ever without any bad stuff happening.contrarian said:Guido quotes the ONS today with the estimate that the pandemic and lockdown to date has cost the taxpayer a cool USD372bn. And that's to May 2021.
Over the next 18 months Johnson & co will be trying to plug gaps and get some of that back. So no, there won't be an early election.
In fact, it would not surprise me if the colossal bill for covid/lockdown is now driving the agenda. It would explain why Johnson, after countless cave-ins, is suddenly standing up to SAGE.
He simply cannot afford not to.1 -
Were they all puce with anger?Theuniondivvie said:
Perhaps you would be a little..er..unhinged if thousands of drunken, violet bigots had trashed your city centre twice in two months.JBriskin3 said:FPT
"Suck it up, baby.
Big help having such a visible example of 'Civic Unionism' at the weekend with which to compare and contrast of course."
@Theuniondivvie
Wow - you seem a little bit unhinged about football fans celebrating a football win.0 -
2023 seems entirely plausible if things are going well and would be consistent with 1983, 1987, 2001 and 2005.0
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"Your city centre" ?? If you love Glasgow so much except for the Rangers fans then I think I'll keep to the topic of this conversation: You're Unhinged.Theuniondivvie said:
Perhaps you would be a little..er..unhinged if thousands of drunken, violet bigots had trashed your city centre twice in two months.JBriskin3 said:FPT
"Suck it up, baby.
Big help having such a visible example of 'Civic Unionism' at the weekend with which to compare and contrast of course."
@Theuniondivvie
Wow - you seem a little bit unhinged about football fans celebrating a football win.
Though I believe you live in Aberdeen, which would invite an obvious if unkind rejoinder.0 -
2017 is a poor comparator as it was (a) under a very bad leader who'd never faced a competitive election and (b) was only two years into the term, not four years into the term as 1983, 1987, 2001 and 2005 were and 2023 would be.0
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After 9 years and a treble treble the Tims seem to have avoided quite such a level of barbarity. They also managed not to murder anyone, so yes, much less of a issue.Taz said:
They’re the wrong sort of football fans. If it was Celtic it would be less of an issue with many nationalists.JBriskin3 said:FPT
"Suck it up, baby.
Big help having such a visible example of 'Civic Unionism' at the weekend with which to compare and contrast of course."
@Theuniondivvie
Wow - you seem a little bit unhinged about football fans celebrating a football win.0 -
Mac n’ Chise DNAMicrobePetri dish
@sailorrooscout
What a good way to start the week off! A new study out of the New York University Grossman School of Medicine shows the current vaccines WILL remain protective against variants B.1.617 and B.1.618, first identified in India.1 -
Is that even a theory? So far as I can see economists have given up on theory. They've lit the blue touchpaper, stood well back, but no way are they going back to the firework.rcs1000 said:
I thought Modern Monetary Theory held that deficits are irrelevant and you can print money for ever without any bad stuff happening.contrarian said:Guido quotes the ONS today with the estimate that the pandemic and lockdown to date has cost the taxpayer a cool USD372bn. And that's to May 2021.
Over the next 18 months Johnson & co will be trying to plug gaps and get some of that back. So no, there won't be an early election.
In fact, it would not surprise me if the colossal bill for covid/lockdown is now driving the agenda. It would explain why Johnson, after countless cave-ins, is suddenly standing up to SAGE.
He simply cannot afford not to.
Personally I think that a line needs to be drawn under this QE phase as quickly as possible and no matter the temptation it shouldn't be used again.
The economic climate is so weird at the moment.1 -
I don't remember telling you to do anything. It's Leon's incessant repetitive STBO that gets my goat, not weather chat per se.LostPassword said:
I love a bit of weather chat. If Mike/RCS/TSE ask me to cease then I will. Not having some other random tell me what to talk about.Anabobazina said:Leon
You are getting seriously boring, going on about the weather. We know what the weather is like, we can look outside. There are lots of weather forums if you want to drone on about it. Although I suspect you’d bore their members too.
Enough already. It’s incredibly dull.
Crack on.0 -
Virtually gammonesque.TOPPING said:
Were they all puce with anger?Theuniondivvie said:
Perhaps you would be a little..er..unhinged if thousands of drunken, violet bigots had trashed your city centre twice in two months.JBriskin3 said:FPT
"Suck it up, baby.
Big help having such a visible example of 'Civic Unionism' at the weekend with which to compare and contrast of course."
@Theuniondivvie
Wow - you seem a little bit unhinged about football fans celebrating a football win.0 -
I agree with that. May had a justification for calling an election, even if it was opportunistic at the time: she wanted a decent majority to be able to govern. Johnson has no such justification to go early.Slackbladder said:I can't see it. Is there anything which he currently can't do with a 80 seat majorty which he could do with a 100+ plus majority.
I'm convinced as well that one reason labour did well in 2017 is that the electorate did not look favourably on T May having a snap election for what was seen to be party polictics.1 -
With a majority of 80 Boris would be an idiot to call a general election before 2024, as May showed in 2017 voters do not like being taken for granted in early elections and with a much bigger majority than she had then he has no need for one either.
Sunak's reported consideration of an inheritance tax rise is also ripe to be a dementia tax 2 in any such campaign
https://inews.co.uk/news/sunak-minded-to-hike-inheritance-tax-to-help-pay-uks-covid-bill-10025710 -
A couple of straws in the wind. My sister, who works in a dubious part of financial services, asked me last week whether I wanted to invest in a new coin that is launching next week.Omnium said:
Is that even a theory? So far as I can see economists have given up on theory. They've lit the blue touchpaper, stood well back, but no way are they going back to the firework.rcs1000 said:
I thought Modern Monetary Theory held that deficits are irrelevant and you can print money for ever without any bad stuff happening.contrarian said:Guido quotes the ONS today with the estimate that the pandemic and lockdown to date has cost the taxpayer a cool USD372bn. And that's to May 2021.
Over the next 18 months Johnson & co will be trying to plug gaps and get some of that back. So no, there won't be an early election.
In fact, it would not surprise me if the colossal bill for covid/lockdown is now driving the agenda. It would explain why Johnson, after countless cave-ins, is suddenly standing up to SAGE.
He simply cannot afford not to.
Personally I think that a line needs to be drawn under this QE phase as quickly as possible and no matter the temptation it shouldn't be used again.
The economic climate is so weird at the moment.
On Facebook this morning, someone I know was telling people not to sell bitcoin and that now was a good time to buy etc. etc.
It's all going to end in tears.0 -
violet bigots??????Theuniondivvie said:
Perhaps you would be a little..er..unhinged if thousands of drunken, violet bigots had trashed your city centre twice in two months.JBriskin3 said:FPT
"Suck it up, baby.
Big help having such a visible example of 'Civic Unionism' at the weekend with which to compare and contrast of course."
@Theuniondivvie
Wow - you seem a little bit unhinged about football fans celebrating a football win.
Though I believe you live in Aberdeen, which would invite an obvious if unkind rejoinder.
Surely Rangers wear blue? Or is this a take on 'roses are red, violets are blue'?
1 -
He's from Scotland. It happens so rarely...JBriskin3 said:FPT
"Suck it up, baby.
Big help having such a visible example of 'Civic Unionism' at the weekend with which to compare and contrast of course."
@Theuniondivvie
Wow - you seem a little bit unhinged about football fans celebrating a football win.2 -
To be fair it's such a massive faff to go to amber list countries (negative test before return, 10 days isolation, 2 private tests during isolation) that its only teh dedicated / mad who will do it.Scott_xP said:Don’t travel to amber list countries, says No 10 despite no ban https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/17/dont-travel-to-amber-list-countries-says-no-10-despite-no-ban
Then you have the new 3rd country rules that we asked be applied to people heading to countries like France and Spain.0 -
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Another reason to believe Boris will step down. And why is the ONS reporting in dollars?contrarian said:Guido quotes the ONS today with the estimate that the pandemic and lockdown to date has cost the taxpayer a cool USD372bn. And that's to May 2021.
Over the next 18 months Johnson & co will be trying to plug gaps and get some of that back. So no, there won't be an early election.
In fact, it would not surprise me if the colossal bill for covid/lockdown is now driving the agenda. It would explain why Johnson, after countless cave-ins, is suddenly standing up to SAGE.
He simply cannot afford not to.0 -
The crypto crowd have good banter - I'll consider the matter once Groats are taken off the deliberation.tlg86 said:
A couple of straws in the wind. My sister, who works in a dubious part of financial services, asked me last week whether I wanted to invest in a new coin that is launching next week.Omnium said:
Is that even a theory? So far as I can see economists have given up on theory. They've lit the blue touchpaper, stood well back, but no way are they going back to the firework.rcs1000 said:
I thought Modern Monetary Theory held that deficits are irrelevant and you can print money for ever without any bad stuff happening.contrarian said:Guido quotes the ONS today with the estimate that the pandemic and lockdown to date has cost the taxpayer a cool USD372bn. And that's to May 2021.
Over the next 18 months Johnson & co will be trying to plug gaps and get some of that back. So no, there won't be an early election.
In fact, it would not surprise me if the colossal bill for covid/lockdown is now driving the agenda. It would explain why Johnson, after countless cave-ins, is suddenly standing up to SAGE.
He simply cannot afford not to.
Personally I think that a line needs to be drawn under this QE phase as quickly as possible and no matter the temptation it shouldn't be used again.
The economic climate is so weird at the moment.
On Facebook this morning, someone I know was telling people not to sell bitcoin and that now was a good time to buy etc. etc.
It's all going to end in tears.0 -
But Chris said we were all going die?rottenborough said:Mac n’ Chise DNAMicrobePetri dish
@sailorrooscout
What a good way to start the week off! A new study out of the New York University Grossman School of Medicine shows the current vaccines WILL remain protective against variants B.1.617 and B.1.618, first identified in India.2 -
Green country - no much risk of things going s wrong you won't travl.Scott_xP said:Don’t travel to amber list countries, says No 10 despite no ban https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/17/dont-travel-to-amber-list-countries-says-no-10-despite-no-ban
Red country - not happening.
Amber country - well, yes you CAN go - but don't come crying to us if that status changes and you end up stuck in a Covid hell-hole for months.
Amber is clearly "well, I wouldn't if I were you..."4 -
Christ, no.
BTW fpt misogyny feels too weak a word for threatening women with rape. When I hear the word "misogyny" I think of someone believing women are too stupid to be doctors or should just be in the kitchen or are not strong enough to be CEO's or whatever.
Threatening rape is of a whole different order. It is sadism directed at women.8 -
It is often simplified as such but MMT is essentially arguing that inflation rather than deficits is the bad thing that stops a sovereign nation printing money for ever. Of course inflation and deficits are closely linked so often conventional economics and MMT would lead to similar analysis. If we stay in this era of long term ultra low inflation then we shall see if (how long) the US and other countries can stay on MMT running massive deficits.rcs1000 said:
I thought Modern Monetary Theory held that deficits are irrelevant and you can print money for ever without any bad stuff happening.contrarian said:Guido quotes the ONS today with the estimate that the pandemic and lockdown to date has cost the taxpayer a cool USD372bn. And that's to May 2021.
Over the next 18 months Johnson & co will be trying to plug gaps and get some of that back. So no, there won't be an early election.
In fact, it would not surprise me if the colossal bill for covid/lockdown is now driving the agenda. It would explain why Johnson, after countless cave-ins, is suddenly standing up to SAGE.
He simply cannot afford not to.1 -
You have to ask what it would take for inflationary pressures to reemerge given the behaviour of central banks over the past X years.noneoftheabove said:
It is often simplified as such but MMT is essentially arguing that inflation rather than deficits is the bad thing that stops a sovereign nation printing money for ever. Of course inflation and deficits are closely linked so often conventional economics and MMT would lead to similar analysis. If we stay in this era of long term ultra low inflation then we shall see if (how long) the US and other countries can stay on MMT running massive deficits.rcs1000 said:
I thought Modern Monetary Theory held that deficits are irrelevant and you can print money for ever without any bad stuff happening.contrarian said:Guido quotes the ONS today with the estimate that the pandemic and lockdown to date has cost the taxpayer a cool USD372bn. And that's to May 2021.
Over the next 18 months Johnson & co will be trying to plug gaps and get some of that back. So no, there won't be an early election.
In fact, it would not surprise me if the colossal bill for covid/lockdown is now driving the agenda. It would explain why Johnson, after countless cave-ins, is suddenly standing up to SAGE.
He simply cannot afford not to.0 -
With evidence rapidly stacking up that the vaccine is efficacious on the India variant, Pagel has seemingly shifted her strategy towards protecting vaccine-refusers. Says it's wrong to separate the population into deserving and undeserving.0
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745,000 a year are being killed by it. Covid? No - long working hours.
It's the WHO. Prepare for another lockdown.....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-571394340 -
I'm sure you're right.tlg86 said:
A couple of straws in the wind. My sister, who works in a dubious part of financial services, asked me last week whether I wanted to invest in a new coin that is launching next week.Omnium said:
Is that even a theory? So far as I can see economists have given up on theory. They've lit the blue touchpaper, stood well back, but no way are they going back to the firework.rcs1000 said:
I thought Modern Monetary Theory held that deficits are irrelevant and you can print money for ever without any bad stuff happening.contrarian said:Guido quotes the ONS today with the estimate that the pandemic and lockdown to date has cost the taxpayer a cool USD372bn. And that's to May 2021.
Over the next 18 months Johnson & co will be trying to plug gaps and get some of that back. So no, there won't be an early election.
In fact, it would not surprise me if the colossal bill for covid/lockdown is now driving the agenda. It would explain why Johnson, after countless cave-ins, is suddenly standing up to SAGE.
He simply cannot afford not to.
Personally I think that a line needs to be drawn under this QE phase as quickly as possible and no matter the temptation it shouldn't be used again.
The economic climate is so weird at the moment.
On Facebook this morning, someone I know was telling people not to sell bitcoin and that now was a good time to buy etc. etc.
It's all going to end in tears.
I think bitcoin is worth zero. I've never owned any, nor do I want to. I did consider shorting it, but thankfully worked out that any number could be the price. I sort of hope that the crypto-currencies fade away (thus not hurting people really badly), but I'm almost sure that it won't be a clean demise, and I may be massively wrong and one day be forced to use bitcoin as its the only sensible choice. I hope that they fade away mainly because I think they bring massive potential issues with them, and the more valuable they get the worse those issues are.
I'm 100% not the person to trust in terms of these valuations though - I've been completely wrong all the way.0 -
It is a feature of all wars. US and British soldiers at the end of WW2 did not always behave like gentlemen towards the women in the countries they occupied.TimT said:FPT
Cyclefree said: "It's curious how most focus is on the anti-Semitic nature of this abuse but not so much on the anti-women nature. It's almost as if it's taken as a given that extremists and haters would naturally threaten sexual violence against a minority group's women when wanting to do them harm.
"Christina Lamb has written very movingly about this in her book "Our Bodies, Their Battlefields". It is a very necessary but horrific read."
"This doesn't just raise questions about people's attitudes to Jews but about their attitude to women as well."
TimT responded:
Indeed, it is a depressing feature of many non-traditional wars. Such wars tend to be more personal and hence more vicious. We've seen the weaponization of rape in the break up of Yugoslavia, in ISIS' reign in Kirkuk, in Boko Haram, by the Burmese military against the Rohingya, the Chinese against the Uighurs, and now by Ethiopians and Eritreans in Tigre. Alas, it does not seem confined to one culture or one religion.
I raise it because it was not so long ago that in the wake of the Sarah Everard case questions were being raised about sexual violence / harassment of women. And here - a few weeks later - we have an example of the threat of sexual violence against women being deliberately used as a threat against one particular community. But the dots are not being joined.
Whatever the conflict, whatever the issue, women end up being the target. This needs more reflection than it is likely to get.3 -
Prof. Christina Pagel
@chrischirp
·
4h
11. So yes, take the breakdown of patients by vax status in Bolton hospital as a sign that vaccines are protective against severe illness.
But do not think that this makes everything "fine" cos it doesn't. /END
Prof. Christina Pagel
@chrischirp
Replying to
@chrischirp
PS to the heartless argument that unvaxxed people are to blame if they don't get vaxxed... 1) full hospitals are full hospitals 2) SAGE models suggest most deaths are in vaxxed people in a bad surge 3) dividing people in "deserving" and "undeserving" is wrong and dangerous.0 -
Agree with header. 1.7 looks decent value for GE24.0
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Sooner than June 2023 would be silly - they can't keep on delaying the review1
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I guarantee you that a Scottish team wins the Premiership every year...MarqueeMark said:
He's from Scotland. It happens so rarely...JBriskin3 said:FPT
"Suck it up, baby.
Big help having such a visible example of 'Civic Unionism' at the weekend with which to compare and contrast of course."
@Theuniondivvie
Wow - you seem a little bit unhinged about football fans celebrating a football win.1 -
So people have no agency of their own and society pays for their poor decisons?Anabobazina said:
Prof. Christina Pagel
@chrischirp
·
4h
11. So yes, take the breakdown of patients by vax status in Bolton hospital as a sign that vaccines are protective against severe illness.
But do not think that this makes everything "fine" cos it doesn't. /END
Prof. Christina Pagel
@chrischirp
Replying to
@chrischirp
PS to the heartless argument that unvaxxed people are to blame if they don't get vaxxed... 1) full hospitals are full hospitals 2) SAGE models suggest most deaths are in vaxxed people in a bad surge 3) dividing people in "deserving" and "undeserving" is wrong and dangerous.
What kind of stupid argument is that?! Just get the bloody vaccine. It's really not that difficult.2 -
I'm off to see whether the "pubs" in "Scotland" are "open".
Here's a reminder of my Acca (?)
Bourenmouth 8/5
Swansea City 5/2
I expect congratulations if I called the play-offs right in the first leg.0 -
The way I see it is that they are only worth anything more than the notional value of the drugs et al trade if you think we will get some hyperinflation that makes traditional currencies worthless. But I really don't want to contemplate the possibility that that actually happens.Omnium said:
I'm sure you're right.tlg86 said:
A couple of straws in the wind. My sister, who works in a dubious part of financial services, asked me last week whether I wanted to invest in a new coin that is launching next week.Omnium said:
Is that even a theory? So far as I can see economists have given up on theory. They've lit the blue touchpaper, stood well back, but no way are they going back to the firework.rcs1000 said:
I thought Modern Monetary Theory held that deficits are irrelevant and you can print money for ever without any bad stuff happening.contrarian said:Guido quotes the ONS today with the estimate that the pandemic and lockdown to date has cost the taxpayer a cool USD372bn. And that's to May 2021.
Over the next 18 months Johnson & co will be trying to plug gaps and get some of that back. So no, there won't be an early election.
In fact, it would not surprise me if the colossal bill for covid/lockdown is now driving the agenda. It would explain why Johnson, after countless cave-ins, is suddenly standing up to SAGE.
He simply cannot afford not to.
Personally I think that a line needs to be drawn under this QE phase as quickly as possible and no matter the temptation it shouldn't be used again.
The economic climate is so weird at the moment.
On Facebook this morning, someone I know was telling people not to sell bitcoin and that now was a good time to buy etc. etc.
It's all going to end in tears.
I think bitcoin is worth zero. I've never owned any, nor do I want to. I did consider shorting it, but thankfully worked out that any number could be the price. I sort of hope that the crypto-currencies fade away (thus not hurting people really badly), but I'm almost sure that it won't be a clean demise, and I may be massively wrong and one day be forced to use bitcoin as its the only sensible choice. I hope that they fade away mainly because I think they bring massive potential issues with them, and the more valuable they get the worse those issues are.
I'm 100% not the person to trust in terms of these valuations though - I've been completely wrong all the way.0 -
She is rather missing the point with that "deserving / undeserving" dichotomy.Anabobazina said:
Prof. Christina Pagel
@chrischirp
·
4h
11. So yes, take the breakdown of patients by vax status in Bolton hospital as a sign that vaccines are protective against severe illness.
But do not think that this makes everything "fine" cos it doesn't. /END
Prof. Christina Pagel
@chrischirp
Replying to
@chrischirp
PS to the heartless argument that unvaxxed people are to blame if they don't get vaxxed... 1) full hospitals are full hospitals 2) SAGE models suggest most deaths are in vaxxed people in a bad surge 3) dividing people in "deserving" and "undeserving" is wrong and dangerous.
The lockdowns were imposed to stop the NHS being overwhelmed and people dying in unacceptably large numbers. Now with the vaccination programme there is no risk of the former or the latter happening, so there is no good reason to continue with lockdowns or continuing restrictions.
A separate question is whether the unvaxxed should get treatment if they get Covid as a result of their refusal to take the vaccine when offered. My view is yes - medical care should be provided on the basis of medical need not on the basis of whether someone has behaved stupidly or not.
Whether others will blame the unvaxxed for their stupidity is another matter. If people behave stupidly, they should not complain if others blame them, especially if they put others at risk.5 -
You're PB's own Hiroo Onoda.Scott_xP said:This Frost testimony is a great demonstration of what Brexit boosterism sounds like when not carried by Boris Johnson's exuberant voice and delivered instead by a charisma-free apparatchik.
Bit short on substance.
Reminds me a bit of this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H8dZwXnMrRU
https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/13942935601287045181 -
"Former ECB chief economists warn of eurozone debt trap if inflation comes back
The central bank may no longer be free to tighten policy if needed, they argue."
https://www.politico.eu/article/former-ecb-chief-economists-warn-of-eurozone-debt-trap-inflation/0 -
Everybody except @Chris and @Leon has known this was highly likely for some time.rottenborough said:Mac n’ Chise DNAMicrobePetri dish
@sailorrooscout
What a good way to start the week off! A new study out of the New York University Grossman School of Medicine shows the current vaccines WILL remain protective against variants B.1.617 and B.1.618, first identified in India.3 -
As I am a moron* I don't understand Bitcoin and the various other made up coins. Money is Gold. It has an intrinsic value. Most currency is now a promissory note where its value comes from it being the only way to pay your taxes.Omnium said:
I'm sure you're right.tlg86 said:
A couple of straws in the wind. My sister, who works in a dubious part of financial services, asked me last week whether I wanted to invest in a new coin that is launching next week.Omnium said:
Is that even a theory? So far as I can see economists have given up on theory. They've lit the blue touchpaper, stood well back, but no way are they going back to the firework.rcs1000 said:
I thought Modern Monetary Theory held that deficits are irrelevant and you can print money for ever without any bad stuff happening.contrarian said:Guido quotes the ONS today with the estimate that the pandemic and lockdown to date has cost the taxpayer a cool USD372bn. And that's to May 2021.
Over the next 18 months Johnson & co will be trying to plug gaps and get some of that back. So no, there won't be an early election.
In fact, it would not surprise me if the colossal bill for covid/lockdown is now driving the agenda. It would explain why Johnson, after countless cave-ins, is suddenly standing up to SAGE.
He simply cannot afford not to.
Personally I think that a line needs to be drawn under this QE phase as quickly as possible and no matter the temptation it shouldn't be used again.
The economic climate is so weird at the moment.
On Facebook this morning, someone I know was telling people not to sell bitcoin and that now was a good time to buy etc. etc.
It's all going to end in tears.
I think bitcoin is worth zero. I've never owned any, nor do I want to. I did consider shorting it, but thankfully worked out that any number could be the price. I sort of hope that the crypto-currencies fade away (thus not hurting people really badly), but I'm almost sure that it won't be a clean demise, and I may be massively wrong and one day be forced to use bitcoin as its the only sensible choice. I hope that they fade away mainly because I think they bring massive potential issues with them, and the more valuable they get the worse those issues are.
I'm 100% not the person to trust in terms of these valuations though - I've been completely wrong all the way.
But where is the value in Bitcoin? It has no intrinsic value. It has no inferred value. It isn't an official currency of anywhere. I don't get it.1 -
I have been told that the reason why Jews have to have a Jewish mother is that rape was frequent when Cossacks (etc) were carrying out pogroms. It reduced the stigmatism of the resultant children.Cyclefree said:
It is a feature of all wars. US and British soldiers at the end of WW2 did not always behave like gentlemen towards the women in the countries they occupied.TimT said:FPT
Cyclefree said: "It's curious how most focus is on the anti-Semitic nature of this abuse but not so much on the anti-women nature. It's almost as if it's taken as a given that extremists and haters would naturally threaten sexual violence against a minority group's women when wanting to do them harm.
"Christina Lamb has written very movingly about this in her book "Our Bodies, Their Battlefields". It is a very necessary but horrific read."
"This doesn't just raise questions about people's attitudes to Jews but about their attitude to women as well."
TimT responded:
Indeed, it is a depressing feature of many non-traditional wars. Such wars tend to be more personal and hence more vicious. We've seen the weaponization of rape in the break up of Yugoslavia, in ISIS' reign in Kirkuk, in Boko Haram, by the Burmese military against the Rohingya, the Chinese against the Uighurs, and now by Ethiopians and Eritreans in Tigre. Alas, it does not seem confined to one culture or one religion.
I raise it because it was not so long ago that in the wake of the Sarah Everard case questions were being raised about sexual violence / harassment of women. And here - a few weeks later - we have an example of the threat of sexual violence against women being deliberately used as a threat against one particular community. But the dots are not being joined.
Whatever the conflict, whatever the issue, women end up being the target. This needs more reflection than it is likely to get.0 -
I think the memories of the Theresa May Event are too strong.
Plus the boundary review (and revue).
So autumn 2023 or spring 2024.0 -
To me, misogyny is a strong word. Far stronger than sexism or chauvinism. But I see what you mean. If you're routinely using 'misogyny' to describe the belittling of women you need at least the qualifier 'extreme' for threats or acts of rape.Cyclefree said:Christ, no.
BTW fpt misogyny feels too weak a word for threatening women with rape. When I hear the word "misogyny" I think of someone believing women are too stupid to be doctors or should just be in the kitchen or are not strong enough to be CEO's or whatever.
Threatening rape is of a whole different order. It is sadism directed at women.0 -
Its appalling of course. These "people" shouting from their cars think they are engaged in war against the Jew. That means applying the rules of war which as you point out usually means one side's soldiers raping the shit out of the other side's civilian women because they can.Cyclefree said:
It is a feature of all wars. US and British soldiers at the end of WW2 did not always behave like gentlemen towards the women in the countries they occupied.TimT said:FPT
Cyclefree said: "It's curious how most focus is on the anti-Semitic nature of this abuse but not so much on the anti-women nature. It's almost as if it's taken as a given that extremists and haters would naturally threaten sexual violence against a minority group's women when wanting to do them harm.
"Christina Lamb has written very movingly about this in her book "Our Bodies, Their Battlefields". It is a very necessary but horrific read."
"This doesn't just raise questions about people's attitudes to Jews but about their attitude to women as well."
TimT responded:
Indeed, it is a depressing feature of many non-traditional wars. Such wars tend to be more personal and hence more vicious. We've seen the weaponization of rape in the break up of Yugoslavia, in ISIS' reign in Kirkuk, in Boko Haram, by the Burmese military against the Rohingya, the Chinese against the Uighurs, and now by Ethiopians and Eritreans in Tigre. Alas, it does not seem confined to one culture or one religion.
I raise it because it was not so long ago that in the wake of the Sarah Everard case questions were being raised about sexual violence / harassment of women. And here - a few weeks later - we have an example of the threat of sexual violence against women being deliberately used as a threat against one particular community. But the dots are not being joined.
Whatever the conflict, whatever the issue, women end up being the target. This needs more reflection than it is likely to get.
Apparently women are just valueless playthings for men - "totty" if you like - who can be treated as being without value by "men". Thank God that in Boris Johnson we have a man who proudly and fiercely upholds the opposite where women are equal to men and get tret with respect at all times.1 -
I completely agree with this analysis Cyclefree. No, we shouldn't slow the roadmap to protect antivaxxers. Yes, antivaxxers should be given full care at no extra cost should they become ill from Covid.Cyclefree said:
She is rather missing the point with that "deserving / undeserving" dichotomy.Anabobazina said:
Prof. Christina Pagel
@chrischirp
·
4h
11. So yes, take the breakdown of patients by vax status in Bolton hospital as a sign that vaccines are protective against severe illness.
But do not think that this makes everything "fine" cos it doesn't. /END
Prof. Christina Pagel
@chrischirp
Replying to
@chrischirp
PS to the heartless argument that unvaxxed people are to blame if they don't get vaxxed... 1) full hospitals are full hospitals 2) SAGE models suggest most deaths are in vaxxed people in a bad surge 3) dividing people in "deserving" and "undeserving" is wrong and dangerous.
The lockdowns were imposed to stop the NHS being overwhelmed and people dying in unacceptably large numbers. Now with the vaccination programme there is no risk of the former or the latter happening, so there is no good reason to continue with lockdowns or continuing restrictions.
A separate question is whether the unvaxxed should get treatment if they get Covid as a result of their refusal to take the vaccine when offered. My view is yes - medical care should be provided on the basis of medical need not on the basis of whether someone has behaved stupidly or not.
Whether others will blame the unvaxxed for their stupidity is another matter. If people behave stupidly, they should not complain if others blame them, especially if they put others at risk.3 -
rcs1000 said:
Everybody except @Chris and @Leon has known this was highly likely for some time.rottenborough said:Mac n’ Chise DNAMicrobePetri dish
@sailorrooscout
What a good way to start the week off! A new study out of the New York University Grossman School of Medicine shows the current vaccines WILL remain protective against variants B.1.617 and B.1.618, first identified in India.
Indeed. My advice to those who missed Chris' cameo on PB yesterday afternoon is that it was well worth missing.8 -
On being frozen out of the NHS for not taking a vaccine, fine, as long as I can take my tax contribution to the service with me.Cyclefree said:
She is rather missing the point with that "deserving / undeserving" dichotomy.Anabobazina said:
Prof. Christina Pagel
@chrischirp
·
4h
11. So yes, take the breakdown of patients by vax status in Bolton hospital as a sign that vaccines are protective against severe illness.
But do not think that this makes everything "fine" cos it doesn't. /END
Prof. Christina Pagel
@chrischirp
Replying to
@chrischirp
PS to the heartless argument that unvaxxed people are to blame if they don't get vaxxed... 1) full hospitals are full hospitals 2) SAGE models suggest most deaths are in vaxxed people in a bad surge 3) dividing people in "deserving" and "undeserving" is wrong and dangerous.
The lockdowns were imposed to stop the NHS being overwhelmed and people dying in unacceptably large numbers. Now with the vaccination programme there is no risk of the former or the latter happening, so there is no good reason to continue with lockdowns or continuing restrictions.
A separate question is whether the unvaxxed should get treatment if they get Covid as a result of their refusal to take the vaccine when offered. My view is yes - medical care should be provided on the basis of medical need not on the basis of whether someone has behaved stupidly or not.
Whether others will blame the unvaxxed for their stupidity is another matter. If people behave stupidly, they should not complain if others blame them, especially if they put others at risk.
Preening moralists like yourself will have to dig a little deeper to fund treatment for the morbidly obese, health tourists and countless others who will never be able to pay a fraction of the cost of treatment they are having for 'behaving stupidly'
But I guess you won't mind that.1 -
Up North I have a nephew who, at 18, instead of going to Uni went to work in a large, traditional, British bank.RochdalePioneers said:
As I am a moron* I don't understand Bitcoin and the various other made up coins. Money is Gold. It has an intrinsic value. Most currency is now a promissory note where its value comes from it being the only way to pay your taxes.Omnium said:
I'm sure you're right.tlg86 said:
A couple of straws in the wind. My sister, who works in a dubious part of financial services, asked me last week whether I wanted to invest in a new coin that is launching next week.Omnium said:
Is that even a theory? So far as I can see economists have given up on theory. They've lit the blue touchpaper, stood well back, but no way are they going back to the firework.rcs1000 said:
I thought Modern Monetary Theory held that deficits are irrelevant and you can print money for ever without any bad stuff happening.contrarian said:Guido quotes the ONS today with the estimate that the pandemic and lockdown to date has cost the taxpayer a cool USD372bn. And that's to May 2021.
Over the next 18 months Johnson & co will be trying to plug gaps and get some of that back. So no, there won't be an early election.
In fact, it would not surprise me if the colossal bill for covid/lockdown is now driving the agenda. It would explain why Johnson, after countless cave-ins, is suddenly standing up to SAGE.
He simply cannot afford not to.
Personally I think that a line needs to be drawn under this QE phase as quickly as possible and no matter the temptation it shouldn't be used again.
The economic climate is so weird at the moment.
On Facebook this morning, someone I know was telling people not to sell bitcoin and that now was a good time to buy etc. etc.
It's all going to end in tears.
I think bitcoin is worth zero. I've never owned any, nor do I want to. I did consider shorting it, but thankfully worked out that any number could be the price. I sort of hope that the crypto-currencies fade away (thus not hurting people really badly), but I'm almost sure that it won't be a clean demise, and I may be massively wrong and one day be forced to use bitcoin as its the only sensible choice. I hope that they fade away mainly because I think they bring massive potential issues with them, and the more valuable they get the worse those issues are.
I'm 100% not the person to trust in terms of these valuations though - I've been completely wrong all the way.
But where is the value in Bitcoin? It has no intrinsic value. It has no inferred value. It isn't an official currency of anywhere. I don't get it.
One of his co-workers introduced him to Bitcoin and before long he had made enough to buy, outright, a terraced house which he and his father redecorated.1 -
But he's the smartest guy in every room, surely he wasn't completely wrong?!Anabobazina said:rcs1000 said:
Everybody except @Chris and @Leon has known this was highly likely for some time.rottenborough said:Mac n’ Chise DNAMicrobePetri dish
@sailorrooscout
What a good way to start the week off! A new study out of the New York University Grossman School of Medicine shows the current vaccines WILL remain protective against variants B.1.617 and B.1.618, first identified in India.
Indeed. My advice to those who missed Chris' cameo on PB yesterday afternoon is that it was well worth missing.0 -
This is a complete straw man. Can you produce a single 'anti-vaxxer' who wants you to slow down the roadmap? Most want it speeded up. Most never wanted lockdown in the first place.Anabobazina said:
I completely agree with this analysis Cyclefree. No, we shouldn't slow the roadmap to protect antivaxxers. Yes, antivaxxers should be given full care at no extra cost should they become ill from Covid.Cyclefree said:
She is rather missing the point with that "deserving / undeserving" dichotomy.Anabobazina said:
Prof. Christina Pagel
@chrischirp
·
4h
11. So yes, take the breakdown of patients by vax status in Bolton hospital as a sign that vaccines are protective against severe illness.
But do not think that this makes everything "fine" cos it doesn't. /END
Prof. Christina Pagel
@chrischirp
Replying to
@chrischirp
PS to the heartless argument that unvaxxed people are to blame if they don't get vaxxed... 1) full hospitals are full hospitals 2) SAGE models suggest most deaths are in vaxxed people in a bad surge 3) dividing people in "deserving" and "undeserving" is wrong and dangerous.
The lockdowns were imposed to stop the NHS being overwhelmed and people dying in unacceptably large numbers. Now with the vaccination programme there is no risk of the former or the latter happening, so there is no good reason to continue with lockdowns or continuing restrictions.
A separate question is whether the unvaxxed should get treatment if they get Covid as a result of their refusal to take the vaccine when offered. My view is yes - medical care should be provided on the basis of medical need not on the basis of whether someone has behaved stupidly or not.
Whether others will blame the unvaxxed for their stupidity is another matter. If people behave stupidly, they should not complain if others blame them, especially if they put others at risk.
Some people are comfortable living with risk.0 -
Surely money posses three characteristics:RochdalePioneers said:
As I am a moron* I don't understand Bitcoin and the various other made up coins. Money is Gold. It has an intrinsic value. Most currency is now a promissory note where its value comes from it being the only way to pay your taxes.Omnium said:
I'm sure you're right.tlg86 said:
A couple of straws in the wind. My sister, who works in a dubious part of financial services, asked me last week whether I wanted to invest in a new coin that is launching next week.Omnium said:
Is that even a theory? So far as I can see economists have given up on theory. They've lit the blue touchpaper, stood well back, but no way are they going back to the firework.rcs1000 said:
I thought Modern Monetary Theory held that deficits are irrelevant and you can print money for ever without any bad stuff happening.contrarian said:Guido quotes the ONS today with the estimate that the pandemic and lockdown to date has cost the taxpayer a cool USD372bn. And that's to May 2021.
Over the next 18 months Johnson & co will be trying to plug gaps and get some of that back. So no, there won't be an early election.
In fact, it would not surprise me if the colossal bill for covid/lockdown is now driving the agenda. It would explain why Johnson, after countless cave-ins, is suddenly standing up to SAGE.
He simply cannot afford not to.
Personally I think that a line needs to be drawn under this QE phase as quickly as possible and no matter the temptation it shouldn't be used again.
The economic climate is so weird at the moment.
On Facebook this morning, someone I know was telling people not to sell bitcoin and that now was a good time to buy etc. etc.
It's all going to end in tears.
I think bitcoin is worth zero. I've never owned any, nor do I want to. I did consider shorting it, but thankfully worked out that any number could be the price. I sort of hope that the crypto-currencies fade away (thus not hurting people really badly), but I'm almost sure that it won't be a clean demise, and I may be massively wrong and one day be forced to use bitcoin as its the only sensible choice. I hope that they fade away mainly because I think they bring massive potential issues with them, and the more valuable they get the worse those issues are.
I'm 100% not the person to trust in terms of these valuations though - I've been completely wrong all the way.
But where is the value in Bitcoin? It has no intrinsic value. It has no inferred value. It isn't an official currency of anywhere. I don't get it.
1. Its scarcity is guaranteed.
2. It is easy to subdivide and to transfer.
3. Everyone agrees on its worth.
When you have hyperinflation, you lose both 1 and 3, and people grow distrustful of money.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies do have guaranteed scarcity. So, there will never be more than 21 million Bitcoins.
They are (somewhat) easy to subdivide and transfer (although there are some major network capacity constraints that have not yet been solved).
However, no-one agrees on their worth. And no one would agree to pay for a long-term contract (employment or any other) in Bitcoin, because one wouldn't know what a Bitcoin was worth in a day or a month or a year's time.
Bitcoins do possess some utility. If you wish to evade currency controls (in say Argentina), then they are an efficient middle man. You use your Pesos to buy Bitcoin from a man on a street corner and then you can wire them to someone in Stockholm.
Likewise, there is a whole "underground" economy based around their pseudonymity (although most people using them don't realise just how easily that can be broken.)
If (a) Bitcoin's network capacity issues are solved via the Lightning network, and it can essentially support unlimited transaction volumes with massively lower fees. And (b) the price ceases swinging around like a drunken sailor, then it's possible that Bitcoin's worth becomes more certain.
If Modern Monetary Theory leads to greater inflation of traditional money, then it's possible that the volume of real transactions through Bitcoin will rise and it will cease being just a trading chip.
However, for now it is just a number in a casino.1 -
All currencies are essentially a matter of belief that you can use them for future goods and services. Yes gold has an intrinsic value as a decorative item of jewellery but that is nothing like £1300 per ounce. It is that price because people believe that others will swap it with them based on thousands of years of gold trade.RochdalePioneers said:
As I am a moron* I don't understand Bitcoin and the various other made up coins. Money is Gold. It has an intrinsic value. Most currency is now a promissory note where its value comes from it being the only way to pay your taxes.Omnium said:
I'm sure you're right.tlg86 said:
A couple of straws in the wind. My sister, who works in a dubious part of financial services, asked me last week whether I wanted to invest in a new coin that is launching next week.Omnium said:
Is that even a theory? So far as I can see economists have given up on theory. They've lit the blue touchpaper, stood well back, but no way are they going back to the firework.rcs1000 said:
I thought Modern Monetary Theory held that deficits are irrelevant and you can print money for ever without any bad stuff happening.contrarian said:Guido quotes the ONS today with the estimate that the pandemic and lockdown to date has cost the taxpayer a cool USD372bn. And that's to May 2021.
Over the next 18 months Johnson & co will be trying to plug gaps and get some of that back. So no, there won't be an early election.
In fact, it would not surprise me if the colossal bill for covid/lockdown is now driving the agenda. It would explain why Johnson, after countless cave-ins, is suddenly standing up to SAGE.
He simply cannot afford not to.
Personally I think that a line needs to be drawn under this QE phase as quickly as possible and no matter the temptation it shouldn't be used again.
The economic climate is so weird at the moment.
On Facebook this morning, someone I know was telling people not to sell bitcoin and that now was a good time to buy etc. etc.
It's all going to end in tears.
I think bitcoin is worth zero. I've never owned any, nor do I want to. I did consider shorting it, but thankfully worked out that any number could be the price. I sort of hope that the crypto-currencies fade away (thus not hurting people really badly), but I'm almost sure that it won't be a clean demise, and I may be massively wrong and one day be forced to use bitcoin as its the only sensible choice. I hope that they fade away mainly because I think they bring massive potential issues with them, and the more valuable they get the worse those issues are.
I'm 100% not the person to trust in terms of these valuations though - I've been completely wrong all the way.
But where is the value in Bitcoin? It has no intrinsic value. It has no inferred value. It isn't an official currency of anywhere. I don't get it.
Cryptos are popular because enough people believe that others will swap it with them in the future because they think the technology/structure of the currency is better (whether it is or not, enough people believe that). So there is a different belief behind them compared to gold, but it is all just about belief, currencies dont have intrinsic value to match their price.2 -
Me neither. I'll owe RCS a chunk of gold if that happens. I'm a bit less sanguine about that wager than I was a couple of years ago, now.tlg86 said:
The way I see it is that they are only worth anything more than the notional value of the drugs et al trade if you think we will get some hyperinflation that makes traditional currencies worthless. But I really don't want to contemplate the possibility that that actually happens.Omnium said:
I'm sure you're right.tlg86 said:
A couple of straws in the wind. My sister, who works in a dubious part of financial services, asked me last week whether I wanted to invest in a new coin that is launching next week.Omnium said:
Is that even a theory? So far as I can see economists have given up on theory. They've lit the blue touchpaper, stood well back, but no way are they going back to the firework.rcs1000 said:
I thought Modern Monetary Theory held that deficits are irrelevant and you can print money for ever without any bad stuff happening.contrarian said:Guido quotes the ONS today with the estimate that the pandemic and lockdown to date has cost the taxpayer a cool USD372bn. And that's to May 2021.
Over the next 18 months Johnson & co will be trying to plug gaps and get some of that back. So no, there won't be an early election.
In fact, it would not surprise me if the colossal bill for covid/lockdown is now driving the agenda. It would explain why Johnson, after countless cave-ins, is suddenly standing up to SAGE.
He simply cannot afford not to.
Personally I think that a line needs to be drawn under this QE phase as quickly as possible and no matter the temptation it shouldn't be used again.
The economic climate is so weird at the moment.
On Facebook this morning, someone I know was telling people not to sell bitcoin and that now was a good time to buy etc. etc.
It's all going to end in tears.
I think bitcoin is worth zero. I've never owned any, nor do I want to. I did consider shorting it, but thankfully worked out that any number could be the price. I sort of hope that the crypto-currencies fade away (thus not hurting people really badly), but I'm almost sure that it won't be a clean demise, and I may be massively wrong and one day be forced to use bitcoin as its the only sensible choice. I hope that they fade away mainly because I think they bring massive potential issues with them, and the more valuable they get the worse those issues are.
I'm 100% not the person to trust in terms of these valuations though - I've been completely wrong all the way.0 -
Positive test rate of increase has crashed to 1.1% – possible we will see a fall this week but we shall see...0
-
All ponzi/pyramid schemes benefit the earliest entrants.OldKingCole said:
Up North I have a nephew who, at 18, instead of going to Uni went to work in a large, traditional, British bank.RochdalePioneers said:
As I am a moron* I don't understand Bitcoin and the various other made up coins. Money is Gold. It has an intrinsic value. Most currency is now a promissory note where its value comes from it being the only way to pay your taxes.Omnium said:
I'm sure you're right.tlg86 said:
A couple of straws in the wind. My sister, who works in a dubious part of financial services, asked me last week whether I wanted to invest in a new coin that is launching next week.Omnium said:
Is that even a theory? So far as I can see economists have given up on theory. They've lit the blue touchpaper, stood well back, but no way are they going back to the firework.rcs1000 said:
I thought Modern Monetary Theory held that deficits are irrelevant and you can print money for ever without any bad stuff happening.contrarian said:Guido quotes the ONS today with the estimate that the pandemic and lockdown to date has cost the taxpayer a cool USD372bn. And that's to May 2021.
Over the next 18 months Johnson & co will be trying to plug gaps and get some of that back. So no, there won't be an early election.
In fact, it would not surprise me if the colossal bill for covid/lockdown is now driving the agenda. It would explain why Johnson, after countless cave-ins, is suddenly standing up to SAGE.
He simply cannot afford not to.
Personally I think that a line needs to be drawn under this QE phase as quickly as possible and no matter the temptation it shouldn't be used again.
The economic climate is so weird at the moment.
On Facebook this morning, someone I know was telling people not to sell bitcoin and that now was a good time to buy etc. etc.
It's all going to end in tears.
I think bitcoin is worth zero. I've never owned any, nor do I want to. I did consider shorting it, but thankfully worked out that any number could be the price. I sort of hope that the crypto-currencies fade away (thus not hurting people really badly), but I'm almost sure that it won't be a clean demise, and I may be massively wrong and one day be forced to use bitcoin as its the only sensible choice. I hope that they fade away mainly because I think they bring massive potential issues with them, and the more valuable they get the worse those issues are.
I'm 100% not the person to trust in terms of these valuations though - I've been completely wrong all the way.
But where is the value in Bitcoin? It has no intrinsic value. It has no inferred value. It isn't an official currency of anywhere. I don't get it.
One of his co-workers introduced him to Bitcoin and before long he had made enough to buy, outright, a terraced house which he and his father redecorated.2 -
Yes - that's what I mean. There is a big difference between saying women should clean behind the fridge and threatening rape. Using the same word to describe both risks devaluing the seriousness of the latter.kinabalu said:
To me, misogyny is a strong word. Far stronger than sexism or chauvinism. But I see what you mean. If you're routinely using 'misogyny' to describe the belittling of women you need at least the qualifier 'extreme' for threats or acts of rape.Cyclefree said:Christ, no.
BTW fpt misogyny feels too weak a word for threatening women with rape. When I hear the word "misogyny" I think of someone believing women are too stupid to be doctors or should just be in the kitchen or are not strong enough to be CEO's or whatever.
Threatening rape is of a whole different order. It is sadism directed at women.0 -
Epic Stuff from Lord Frost. The solution to the unworkable NI protocol? Phase it in slowly! https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/17/uk-proposes-phasing-in-irish-sea-border-checks-on-food-brexit
"The UK has ruled out a food standards alignment deal that would have done away with 90% of border checks, according to Shanker Singham, one of the lead proponents for alternative arrangements for the border.
According to internal documents seen by the BBC and the Guardian, the UK instead wants to phase in border checks on food. Phase 1 from 1 October would involve the introduction of export health certificates for fresh meat. Phase 2, from the end of January, would cover dairy products, garden centre plants, seeds and wine.
Phase 3 would cover fruit and vegetables and pet food, and phase 4 would cover “ambient” foods such as jams, products with a short shelf life and high-risk foods not of animal origin."
This is delusional. We won't agree a deal to declare our aligned standards to be aligned. Instead we're going to drive through non-workable logistics costs and delays AND whip the loyalist community up to rioting point. Why? Because our aligned standards may well be aligned by our choice but we can't say that as we have to have defeated the evil EU or whatever.0 -
I think the big political unknown is how do world leaders react to some serious inflation. They haven't had to think about such a problem in their entire careers (maybe Biden has!).rcs1000 said:
Surely money posses three characteristics:RochdalePioneers said:
As I am a moron* I don't understand Bitcoin and the various other made up coins. Money is Gold. It has an intrinsic value. Most currency is now a promissory note where its value comes from it being the only way to pay your taxes.Omnium said:
I'm sure you're right.tlg86 said:
A couple of straws in the wind. My sister, who works in a dubious part of financial services, asked me last week whether I wanted to invest in a new coin that is launching next week.Omnium said:
Is that even a theory? So far as I can see economists have given up on theory. They've lit the blue touchpaper, stood well back, but no way are they going back to the firework.rcs1000 said:
I thought Modern Monetary Theory held that deficits are irrelevant and you can print money for ever without any bad stuff happening.contrarian said:Guido quotes the ONS today with the estimate that the pandemic and lockdown to date has cost the taxpayer a cool USD372bn. And that's to May 2021.
Over the next 18 months Johnson & co will be trying to plug gaps and get some of that back. So no, there won't be an early election.
In fact, it would not surprise me if the colossal bill for covid/lockdown is now driving the agenda. It would explain why Johnson, after countless cave-ins, is suddenly standing up to SAGE.
He simply cannot afford not to.
Personally I think that a line needs to be drawn under this QE phase as quickly as possible and no matter the temptation it shouldn't be used again.
The economic climate is so weird at the moment.
On Facebook this morning, someone I know was telling people not to sell bitcoin and that now was a good time to buy etc. etc.
It's all going to end in tears.
I think bitcoin is worth zero. I've never owned any, nor do I want to. I did consider shorting it, but thankfully worked out that any number could be the price. I sort of hope that the crypto-currencies fade away (thus not hurting people really badly), but I'm almost sure that it won't be a clean demise, and I may be massively wrong and one day be forced to use bitcoin as its the only sensible choice. I hope that they fade away mainly because I think they bring massive potential issues with them, and the more valuable they get the worse those issues are.
I'm 100% not the person to trust in terms of these valuations though - I've been completely wrong all the way.
But where is the value in Bitcoin? It has no intrinsic value. It has no inferred value. It isn't an official currency of anywhere. I don't get it.
1. Its scarcity is guaranteed.
2. It is easy to subdivide and to transfer.
3. Everyone agrees on its worth.
When you have hyperinflation, you lose both 1 and 3, and people grow distrustful of money.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies do have guaranteed scarcity. So, there will never be more than 21 million Bitcoins.
They are (somewhat) easy to subdivide and transfer (although there are some major network capacity constraints that have not yet been solved).
However, no-one agrees on their worth. And no one would agree to pay for a long-term contract (employment or any other) in Bitcoin, because one wouldn't know what a Bitcoin was worth in a day or a month or a year's time.
Bitcoins do possess some utility. If you wish to evade currency controls (in say Argentina), then they are an efficient middle man. You use your Pesos to buy Bitcoin from a man on a street corner and then you can wire them to someone in Stockholm.
Likewise, there is a whole "underground" economy based around their pseudonymity (although most people using them don't realise just how easily that can be broken.)
If (a) Bitcoin's network capacity issues are solved via the Lightning network, and it can essentially support unlimited transaction volumes with massively lower fees. And (b) the price ceases swinging around like a drunken sailor, then it's possible that Bitcoin's worth becomes more certain.
If Modern Monetary Theory leads to greater inflation of traditional money, then it's possible that the volume of real transactions through Bitcoin will rise and it will cease being just a trading chip.
However, for now it is just a number in a casino.
I think the people may kick off if they don't do anything about it. But then 30 and 40 somethings with big mortgages may kick off if they do too much about it!1 -
To me, the inference is that the thugs waving Palestinian flags saw women as incidental to the process. It wasn't "rape the women," it was "rape their daughters" - a threat aimed at Jewish men.Cyclefree said:Christ, no.
BTW fpt misogyny feels too weak a word for threatening women with rape. When I hear the word "misogyny" I think of someone believing women are too stupid to be doctors or should just be in the kitchen or are not strong enough to be CEO's or whatever.
Threatening rape is of a whole different order. It is sadism directed at women.
Because these people are from a different and pretty alien culture - family honour is rated highly; individual rights are rated lowly. And what individual women think about it is valued not at all.2 -
The mess they left the place in was unbelievable and the urinating anywhere by both men and women was shocking. Was absolutely disgraceful and why police allowed them to enter the square just about sums it up , they had a practice with similar results a month ago.Theuniondivvie said:
After 9 years and a treble treble the Tims seem to have avoided quite such a level of barbarity. They also managed not to murder anyone, so yes, much less of a issue.Taz said:
They’re the wrong sort of football fans. If it was Celtic it would be less of an issue with many nationalists.JBriskin3 said:FPT
"Suck it up, baby.
Big help having such a visible example of 'Civic Unionism' at the weekend with which to compare and contrast of course."
@Theuniondivvie
Wow - you seem a little bit unhinged about football fans celebrating a football win.0 -
The last twitching spasms of the Covid irrationals.Anabobazina said:rcs1000 said:
Everybody except @Chris and @Leon has known this was highly likely for some time.rottenborough said:Mac n’ Chise DNAMicrobePetri dish
@sailorrooscout
What a good way to start the week off! A new study out of the New York University Grossman School of Medicine shows the current vaccines WILL remain protective against variants B.1.617 and B.1.618, first identified in India.
Indeed. My advice to those who missed Chris' cameo on PB yesterday afternoon is that it was well worth missing.
Speaking of which, didn't Contrarian argue very forcefully that no way we would be back drinking inside pubs this May? I suggest he doesn't turn on the telly today....0 -
The power of totalitarianism rests party in its ability to completely control possessions, to reward those who are favoured and to turn enemies into grease spots via arbitrary confiscation.rcs1000 said:
Surely money posses three characteristics:RochdalePioneers said:
As I am a moron* I don't understand Bitcoin and the various other made up coins. Money is Gold. It has an intrinsic value. Most currency is now a promissory note where its value comes from it being the only way to pay your taxes.Omnium said:
I'm sure you're right.tlg86 said:
A couple of straws in the wind. My sister, who works in a dubious part of financial services, asked me last week whether I wanted to invest in a new coin that is launching next week.Omnium said:
Is that even a theory? So far as I can see economists have given up on theory. They've lit the blue touchpaper, stood well back, but no way are they going back to the firework.rcs1000 said:
I thought Modern Monetary Theory held that deficits are irrelevant and you can print money for ever without any bad stuff happening.contrarian said:Guido quotes the ONS today with the estimate that the pandemic and lockdown to date has cost the taxpayer a cool USD372bn. And that's to May 2021.
Over the next 18 months Johnson & co will be trying to plug gaps and get some of that back. So no, there won't be an early election.
In fact, it would not surprise me if the colossal bill for covid/lockdown is now driving the agenda. It would explain why Johnson, after countless cave-ins, is suddenly standing up to SAGE.
He simply cannot afford not to.
Personally I think that a line needs to be drawn under this QE phase as quickly as possible and no matter the temptation it shouldn't be used again.
The economic climate is so weird at the moment.
On Facebook this morning, someone I know was telling people not to sell bitcoin and that now was a good time to buy etc. etc.
It's all going to end in tears.
I think bitcoin is worth zero. I've never owned any, nor do I want to. I did consider shorting it, but thankfully worked out that any number could be the price. I sort of hope that the crypto-currencies fade away (thus not hurting people really badly), but I'm almost sure that it won't be a clean demise, and I may be massively wrong and one day be forced to use bitcoin as its the only sensible choice. I hope that they fade away mainly because I think they bring massive potential issues with them, and the more valuable they get the worse those issues are.
I'm 100% not the person to trust in terms of these valuations though - I've been completely wrong all the way.
But where is the value in Bitcoin? It has no intrinsic value. It has no inferred value. It isn't an official currency of anywhere. I don't get it.
1. Its scarcity is guaranteed.
2. It is easy to subdivide and to transfer.
3. Everyone agrees on its worth.
When you have hyperinflation, you lose both 1 and 3, and people grow distrustful of money.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies do have guaranteed scarcity. So, there will never be more than 21 million Bitcoins.
They are (somewhat) easy to subdivide and transfer (although there are some major network capacity constraints that have not yet been solved).
However, no-one agrees on their worth. And no one would agree to pay for a long-term contract (employment or any other) in Bitcoin, because one wouldn't know what a Bitcoin was worth in a day or a month or a year's time.
Bitcoins do possess some utility. If you wish to evade currency controls (in say Argentina), then they are an efficient middle man. You use your Pesos to buy Bitcoin from a man on a street corner and then you can wire them to someone in Stockholm.
Likewise, there is a whole "underground" economy based around their pseudonymity (although most people using them don't realise just how easily that can be broken.)
If (a) Bitcoin's network capacity issues are solved via the Lightning network, and it can essentially support unlimited transaction volumes with massively lower fees. And (b) the price ceases swinging around like a drunken sailor, then it's possible that Bitcoin's worth becomes more certain.
If Modern Monetary Theory leads to greater inflation of traditional money, then it's possible that the volume of real transactions through Bitcoin will rise and it will cease being just a trading chip.
However, for now it is just a number in a casino.
Cryptos are beyond the reach of governments. They can't be confiscated and attempts to tax them are pretty sketchy. They uphold the rights of the property owner in a world which really doesn't.
1 -
You might or might not be right – but that wasn't my point. My point was that we shouldn't slow down the roadmap for the sake of antivaxxers – as Pagel is suggesting – not that antivaxxers had requested it!contrarian said:
This is a complete straw man. Can you produce a single 'anti-vaxxer' who wants you to slow down the roadmap? Most want it speeded up. Most never wanted lockdown in the first place.Anabobazina said:
I completely agree with this analysis Cyclefree. No, we shouldn't slow the roadmap to protect antivaxxers. Yes, antivaxxers should be given full care at no extra cost should they become ill from Covid.Cyclefree said:
She is rather missing the point with that "deserving / undeserving" dichotomy.Anabobazina said:
Prof. Christina Pagel
@chrischirp
·
4h
11. So yes, take the breakdown of patients by vax status in Bolton hospital as a sign that vaccines are protective against severe illness.
But do not think that this makes everything "fine" cos it doesn't. /END
Prof. Christina Pagel
@chrischirp
Replying to
@chrischirp
PS to the heartless argument that unvaxxed people are to blame if they don't get vaxxed... 1) full hospitals are full hospitals 2) SAGE models suggest most deaths are in vaxxed people in a bad surge 3) dividing people in "deserving" and "undeserving" is wrong and dangerous.
The lockdowns were imposed to stop the NHS being overwhelmed and people dying in unacceptably large numbers. Now with the vaccination programme there is no risk of the former or the latter happening, so there is no good reason to continue with lockdowns or continuing restrictions.
A separate question is whether the unvaxxed should get treatment if they get Covid as a result of their refusal to take the vaccine when offered. My view is yes - medical care should be provided on the basis of medical need not on the basis of whether someone has behaved stupidly or not.
Whether others will blame the unvaxxed for their stupidity is another matter. If people behave stupidly, they should not complain if others blame them, especially if they put others at risk.
Some people are comfortable living with risk.0 -
It happens on an annual basis just like every other placeMarqueeMark said:
He's from Scotland. It happens so rarely...JBriskin3 said:FPT
"Suck it up, baby.
Big help having such a visible example of 'Civic Unionism' at the weekend with which to compare and contrast of course."
@Theuniondivvie
Wow - you seem a little bit unhinged about football fans celebrating a football win.0 -
It's certainly not suggestive of an explosion in cases due to a massively more transmissible variant.Anabobazina said:Positive test rate of increase has crashed to 1.1% – possible we will see a fall this week but we shall see...
0 -
Its not the anti-vaxxers who want it slowed, its some the scientists who want it slowed to protect the anti-vaxxers.contrarian said:
This is a complete straw man. Can you produce a single 'anti-vaxxer' who wants you to slow down the roadmap? Most want it speeded up. Most never wanted lockdown in the first place.Anabobazina said:
I completely agree with this analysis Cyclefree. No, we shouldn't slow the roadmap to protect antivaxxers. Yes, antivaxxers should be given full care at no extra cost should they become ill from Covid.Cyclefree said:
She is rather missing the point with that "deserving / undeserving" dichotomy.Anabobazina said:
Prof. Christina Pagel
@chrischirp
·
4h
11. So yes, take the breakdown of patients by vax status in Bolton hospital as a sign that vaccines are protective against severe illness.
But do not think that this makes everything "fine" cos it doesn't. /END
Prof. Christina Pagel
@chrischirp
Replying to
@chrischirp
PS to the heartless argument that unvaxxed people are to blame if they don't get vaxxed... 1) full hospitals are full hospitals 2) SAGE models suggest most deaths are in vaxxed people in a bad surge 3) dividing people in "deserving" and "undeserving" is wrong and dangerous.
The lockdowns were imposed to stop the NHS being overwhelmed and people dying in unacceptably large numbers. Now with the vaccination programme there is no risk of the former or the latter happening, so there is no good reason to continue with lockdowns or continuing restrictions.
A separate question is whether the unvaxxed should get treatment if they get Covid as a result of their refusal to take the vaccine when offered. My view is yes - medical care should be provided on the basis of medical need not on the basis of whether someone has behaved stupidly or not.
Whether others will blame the unvaxxed for their stupidity is another matter. If people behave stupidly, they should not complain if others blame them, especially if they put others at risk.
Some people are comfortable living with risk.2 -
Inflationary pressures were held in check in the developed world by China's export of deflation. The price of manufactured products didn't rise because China pegged their currency, and was happy to run trade surpluses into perpetuity.TOPPING said:
You have to ask what it would take for inflationary pressures to reemerge given the behaviour of central banks over the past X years.noneoftheabove said:
It is often simplified as such but MMT is essentially arguing that inflation rather than deficits is the bad thing that stops a sovereign nation printing money for ever. Of course inflation and deficits are closely linked so often conventional economics and MMT would lead to similar analysis. If we stay in this era of long term ultra low inflation then we shall see if (how long) the US and other countries can stay on MMT running massive deficits.rcs1000 said:
I thought Modern Monetary Theory held that deficits are irrelevant and you can print money for ever without any bad stuff happening.contrarian said:Guido quotes the ONS today with the estimate that the pandemic and lockdown to date has cost the taxpayer a cool USD372bn. And that's to May 2021.
Over the next 18 months Johnson & co will be trying to plug gaps and get some of that back. So no, there won't be an early election.
In fact, it would not surprise me if the colossal bill for covid/lockdown is now driving the agenda. It would explain why Johnson, after countless cave-ins, is suddenly standing up to SAGE.
He simply cannot afford not to.
Of course, the money has to go somewhere, so instead of it inflating the price of consumer goods, it increased the price of assets. (The 'carry trade' made a lot of rich people a little bit richer.)
I'm not convinced that China will be able to keep exporting deflation. Costs are rising there now, and their industrialisation process is mostly complete. Now, China could attempt to offset this by driving their currency lower, but it's easier to stop a currency rising than it is to drive it down.
So I would guess we're going to see a slow and steady rise in inflationary pressures over the next five to ten years.
Don't buy super long dated low coupon bonds.3 -
He did indeed IIRC ––although TBF he very graciously conceded the sportsman's bet I had with him when we were drinking pints w/c 12 April...MarqueeMark said:
The last twitching spasms of the Covid irrationals.Anabobazina said:rcs1000 said:
Everybody except @Chris and @Leon has known this was highly likely for some time.rottenborough said:Mac n’ Chise DNAMicrobePetri dish
@sailorrooscout
What a good way to start the week off! A new study out of the New York University Grossman School of Medicine shows the current vaccines WILL remain protective against variants B.1.617 and B.1.618, first identified in India.
Indeed. My advice to those who missed Chris' cameo on PB yesterday afternoon is that it was well worth missing.
Speaking of which, didn't Contrarian argue very forcefully that no way we would be back drinking inside pubs this May? I suggest he doesn't turn on the telly today....0 -
There is quite rightly no chance - no chance whatsoever - of the NHS saying to people who need treatment for Covid, "What, you refused the vaccine? Ok, so fuck off home then. You can suffer and die."Anabobazina said:
I completely agree with this analysis Cyclefree. No, we shouldn't slow the roadmap to protect antivaxxers. Yes, antivaxxers should be given full care at no extra cost should they become ill from Covid.Cyclefree said:
She is rather missing the point with that "deserving / undeserving" dichotomy.Anabobazina said:
Prof. Christina Pagel
@chrischirp
·
4h
11. So yes, take the breakdown of patients by vax status in Bolton hospital as a sign that vaccines are protective against severe illness.
But do not think that this makes everything "fine" cos it doesn't. /END
Prof. Christina Pagel
@chrischirp
Replying to
@chrischirp
PS to the heartless argument that unvaxxed people are to blame if they don't get vaxxed... 1) full hospitals are full hospitals 2) SAGE models suggest most deaths are in vaxxed people in a bad surge 3) dividing people in "deserving" and "undeserving" is wrong and dangerous.
The lockdowns were imposed to stop the NHS being overwhelmed and people dying in unacceptably large numbers. Now with the vaccination programme there is no risk of the former or the latter happening, so there is no good reason to continue with lockdowns or continuing restrictions.
A separate question is whether the unvaxxed should get treatment if they get Covid as a result of their refusal to take the vaccine when offered. My view is yes - medical care should be provided on the basis of medical need not on the basis of whether someone has behaved stupidly or not.
Whether others will blame the unvaxxed for their stupidity is another matter. If people behave stupidly, they should not complain if others blame them, especially if they put others at risk.
I'm surprised we're even talking about this tbh.0 -
True, but this was some 3-4 years ago. Bitcoin's been going a bit longer than that.rpjs said:
All ponzi/pyramid schemes benefit the earliest entrants.OldKingCole said:
Up North I have a nephew who, at 18, instead of going to Uni went to work in a large, traditional, British bank.RochdalePioneers said:
As I am a moron* I don't understand Bitcoin and the various other made up coins. Money is Gold. It has an intrinsic value. Most currency is now a promissory note where its value comes from it being the only way to pay your taxes.Omnium said:
I'm sure you're right.tlg86 said:
A couple of straws in the wind. My sister, who works in a dubious part of financial services, asked me last week whether I wanted to invest in a new coin that is launching next week.Omnium said:
Is that even a theory? So far as I can see economists have given up on theory. They've lit the blue touchpaper, stood well back, but no way are they going back to the firework.rcs1000 said:
I thought Modern Monetary Theory held that deficits are irrelevant and you can print money for ever without any bad stuff happening.contrarian said:Guido quotes the ONS today with the estimate that the pandemic and lockdown to date has cost the taxpayer a cool USD372bn. And that's to May 2021.
Over the next 18 months Johnson & co will be trying to plug gaps and get some of that back. So no, there won't be an early election.
In fact, it would not surprise me if the colossal bill for covid/lockdown is now driving the agenda. It would explain why Johnson, after countless cave-ins, is suddenly standing up to SAGE.
He simply cannot afford not to.
Personally I think that a line needs to be drawn under this QE phase as quickly as possible and no matter the temptation it shouldn't be used again.
The economic climate is so weird at the moment.
On Facebook this morning, someone I know was telling people not to sell bitcoin and that now was a good time to buy etc. etc.
It's all going to end in tears.
I think bitcoin is worth zero. I've never owned any, nor do I want to. I did consider shorting it, but thankfully worked out that any number could be the price. I sort of hope that the crypto-currencies fade away (thus not hurting people really badly), but I'm almost sure that it won't be a clean demise, and I may be massively wrong and one day be forced to use bitcoin as its the only sensible choice. I hope that they fade away mainly because I think they bring massive potential issues with them, and the more valuable they get the worse those issues are.
I'm 100% not the person to trust in terms of these valuations though - I've been completely wrong all the way.
But where is the value in Bitcoin? It has no intrinsic value. It has no inferred value. It isn't an official currency of anywhere. I don't get it.
One of his co-workers introduced him to Bitcoin and before long he had made enough to buy, outright, a terraced house which he and his father redecorated.
It does remind, me though of tulipomania (although I believe this wasn't a bad popularly believed) or the South Sea Bubble.0 -
No real sign of a problem in the case data is there? Other than a new variant being followed by our excellent monitoring in the UK, I'd say we are very much on track.Anabobazina said:Positive test rate of increase has crashed to 1.1% – possible we will see a fall this week but we shall see...
0 -
Rising inflation wiping out the Eurozone's debts would probably be the best thing that could happen to them.williamglenn said:"Former ECB chief economists warn of eurozone debt trap if inflation comes back
The central bank may no longer be free to tighten policy if needed, they argue."
https://www.politico.eu/article/former-ecb-chief-economists-warn-of-eurozone-debt-trap-inflation/1 -
Read the sentence you wrote and ask yourself if its true in any sense whatever.turbotubbs said:
Its not the anti-vaxxers who want it slowed, its some the scientists who want it slowed to protect the anti-vaxxers.contrarian said:
This is a complete straw man. Can you produce a single 'anti-vaxxer' who wants you to slow down the roadmap? Most want it speeded up. Most never wanted lockdown in the first place.Anabobazina said:
I completely agree with this analysis Cyclefree. No, we shouldn't slow the roadmap to protect antivaxxers. Yes, antivaxxers should be given full care at no extra cost should they become ill from Covid.Cyclefree said:
She is rather missing the point with that "deserving / undeserving" dichotomy.Anabobazina said:
Prof. Christina Pagel
@chrischirp
·
4h
11. So yes, take the breakdown of patients by vax status in Bolton hospital as a sign that vaccines are protective against severe illness.
But do not think that this makes everything "fine" cos it doesn't. /END
Prof. Christina Pagel
@chrischirp
Replying to
@chrischirp
PS to the heartless argument that unvaxxed people are to blame if they don't get vaxxed... 1) full hospitals are full hospitals 2) SAGE models suggest most deaths are in vaxxed people in a bad surge 3) dividing people in "deserving" and "undeserving" is wrong and dangerous.
The lockdowns were imposed to stop the NHS being overwhelmed and people dying in unacceptably large numbers. Now with the vaccination programme there is no risk of the former or the latter happening, so there is no good reason to continue with lockdowns or continuing restrictions.
A separate question is whether the unvaxxed should get treatment if they get Covid as a result of their refusal to take the vaccine when offered. My view is yes - medical care should be provided on the basis of medical need not on the basis of whether someone has behaved stupidly or not.
Whether others will blame the unvaxxed for their stupidity is another matter. If people behave stupidly, they should not complain if others blame them, especially if they put others at risk.
Some people are comfortable living with risk.
As we learn more about SAGE, we surely understand the faith in it displayed on here and elsewhere is utterly misplaced.1 -
(FPT)
There is a problem with that simple interpretation, though.Philip_Thompson said:
The Israeli Jews say that they legally own the land and they've owned it since the Ottomans, but were kicked out by the Jordanians and Palestinians settled there and they want their land back. They say they're the legal owners of the land.TOPPING said:
Excellent thanks. So the Israelis tried to turf out the people who had been living there for decades (but perhaps not centuries...).Slackbladder said:
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/clashes-jerusalem-ahead-court-case-palestinians-eviction-2021-05-05/TOPPING said:
Ah. Glad you're on. Not being paying huge attention to it but could you pls let me know what was the catalyst for this latest bout of violence in the ME?Floater said:
These things are clearly real - they do appear to be able to operate both in ways current technology cannot duplicate and also trans medium (ie in water and in air)PoodleInASlipstream said:
As an engineer I've always been naturally sceptical of stories like these, but it's getting harder and harder to maintain that stance. Bonkers as it sounds, clearly something that can be tracked visually, on radar, and by IR is physically present, not some kind of illusion.Leon said:"Lue Elizondo: Look, Bill, I'm not, I'm not telling you that, that it doesn't sound wacky. What I'm telling you, it's real. The question is, what is it? What are its intentions? What are its capabilities?
I'm glad the US is starting to take this seriously. They should pack an aircraft with every sensor known to man, optical, IR, gravimetric, et al, and fly it around in an area where these sightings are happening.
The question is where do they come from - it isn't impossible that they come from China or Russia ( I saw someone say Iran - but nah can't see that ) - but it seems unlikely.
TIA.
Simon the Just, eh? No wonder the problem seems to be intractable.
The Palestinians say that its their home that they were settled in by the Jordanians in the 50s.
The Courts have backed the Jewish owners of the land.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/16/a-raid-a-march-a-court-case-how-israel-spiralled-into-a-deadly-conflict
...The Sheikh Jarrah case is incendiary for many Palestinians because would-be settlers cite an Israeli law allowing Jews to reclaim ownership of property lost before 1948. Palestinians have no equivalent legal means to reclaim property that became part of the state of Israel at the same time. “The law is written to privilege Jews over non-Jews. It is house-by-house, neighbourhood-by-neighbourhood apartheid,” said Yousef Munayyer, a Palestinian political analyst.
The families at the heart of the dispute have lived there since the 1950s, after being forced to abandon or flee their homes in the fighting that preceded the declaration of the state of Israel in 1948....2 -
I'm not sure anyone was actually proposing such a course of action, although I might have missed it!kinabalu said:
There is quite rightly no chance - no chance whatsoever - of the NHS saying to people who need treatment for Covid, "What, you refused the vaccine? Ok, so fuck off home then. You can suffer and die."Anabobazina said:
I completely agree with this analysis Cyclefree. No, we shouldn't slow the roadmap to protect antivaxxers. Yes, antivaxxers should be given full care at no extra cost should they become ill from Covid.Cyclefree said:
She is rather missing the point with that "deserving / undeserving" dichotomy.Anabobazina said:
Prof. Christina Pagel
@chrischirp
·
4h
11. So yes, take the breakdown of patients by vax status in Bolton hospital as a sign that vaccines are protective against severe illness.
But do not think that this makes everything "fine" cos it doesn't. /END
Prof. Christina Pagel
@chrischirp
Replying to
@chrischirp
PS to the heartless argument that unvaxxed people are to blame if they don't get vaxxed... 1) full hospitals are full hospitals 2) SAGE models suggest most deaths are in vaxxed people in a bad surge 3) dividing people in "deserving" and "undeserving" is wrong and dangerous.
The lockdowns were imposed to stop the NHS being overwhelmed and people dying in unacceptably large numbers. Now with the vaccination programme there is no risk of the former or the latter happening, so there is no good reason to continue with lockdowns or continuing restrictions.
A separate question is whether the unvaxxed should get treatment if they get Covid as a result of their refusal to take the vaccine when offered. My view is yes - medical care should be provided on the basis of medical need not on the basis of whether someone has behaved stupidly or not.
Whether others will blame the unvaxxed for their stupidity is another matter. If people behave stupidly, they should not complain if others blame them, especially if they put others at risk.
I'm surprised we're even talking about this tbh.0 -
Precisely, the threat isn't aimed at the women in their thinking - its aimed at the husbands/father's of those women.Cookie said:
To me, the inference is that the thugs waving Palestinian flags saw women as incidental to the process. It wasn't "rape the women," it was "rape their daughters" - a threat aimed at Jewish men.Cyclefree said:Christ, no.
BTW fpt misogyny feels too weak a word for threatening women with rape. When I hear the word "misogyny" I think of someone believing women are too stupid to be doctors or should just be in the kitchen or are not strong enough to be CEO's or whatever.
Threatening rape is of a whole different order. It is sadism directed at women.
Because these people are from a different and pretty alien culture - family honour is rated highly; individual rights are rated lowly. And what individual women think about it is valued not at all.
Because to them only men matter and the women are chattle, and why would you threaten chattle?0 -
turbotubbs said:
No real sign of a problem in the case data is there? Other than a new variant being followed by our excellent monitoring in the UK, I'd say we are very much on track.Anabobazina said:Positive test rate of increase has crashed to 1.1% – possible we will see a fall this week but we shall see...
There's been a fall in testing overall although I dare say a big increase in testing in areas of concern. Worth keeping an eye on the numbers for the next few days...0 -
Yep - some people have got very rich from its ludicrous spikes in value. Others have lost a significant portion of their investment from its ludicrous spikes in value. I don't get it...OldKingCole said:
Up North I have a nephew who, at 18, instead of going to Uni went to work in a large, traditional, British bank.RochdalePioneers said:
As I am a moron* I don't understand Bitcoin and the various other made up coins. Money is Gold. It has an intrinsic value. Most currency is now a promissory note where its value comes from it being the only way to pay your taxes.Omnium said:
I'm sure you're right.tlg86 said:
A couple of straws in the wind. My sister, who works in a dubious part of financial services, asked me last week whether I wanted to invest in a new coin that is launching next week.Omnium said:
Is that even a theory? So far as I can see economists have given up on theory. They've lit the blue touchpaper, stood well back, but no way are they going back to the firework.rcs1000 said:
I thought Modern Monetary Theory held that deficits are irrelevant and you can print money for ever without any bad stuff happening.contrarian said:Guido quotes the ONS today with the estimate that the pandemic and lockdown to date has cost the taxpayer a cool USD372bn. And that's to May 2021.
Over the next 18 months Johnson & co will be trying to plug gaps and get some of that back. So no, there won't be an early election.
In fact, it would not surprise me if the colossal bill for covid/lockdown is now driving the agenda. It would explain why Johnson, after countless cave-ins, is suddenly standing up to SAGE.
He simply cannot afford not to.
Personally I think that a line needs to be drawn under this QE phase as quickly as possible and no matter the temptation it shouldn't be used again.
The economic climate is so weird at the moment.
On Facebook this morning, someone I know was telling people not to sell bitcoin and that now was a good time to buy etc. etc.
It's all going to end in tears.
I think bitcoin is worth zero. I've never owned any, nor do I want to. I did consider shorting it, but thankfully worked out that any number could be the price. I sort of hope that the crypto-currencies fade away (thus not hurting people really badly), but I'm almost sure that it won't be a clean demise, and I may be massively wrong and one day be forced to use bitcoin as its the only sensible choice. I hope that they fade away mainly because I think they bring massive potential issues with them, and the more valuable they get the worse those issues are.
I'm 100% not the person to trust in terms of these valuations though - I've been completely wrong all the way.
But where is the value in Bitcoin? It has no intrinsic value. It has no inferred value. It isn't an official currency of anywhere. I don't get it.
One of his co-workers introduced him to Bitcoin and before long he had made enough to buy, outright, a terraced house which he and his father redecorated.2 -
Rising inflation would probably open up an entirely different set of issues for Germany - given that the central focus of the Bundesbank is (and always has been) to keep inflation as low as possible.rcs1000 said:
Rising inflation wiping out the Eurozone's debts would probably be the best thing that could happen to them.williamglenn said:"Former ECB chief economists warn of eurozone debt trap if inflation comes back
The central bank may no longer be free to tighten policy if needed, they argue."
https://www.politico.eu/article/former-ecb-chief-economists-warn-of-eurozone-debt-trap-inflation/1 -
Indeed but ironically of course the Palestinians do actually still claim a "right of return" and a "right of return" for those who left Israel in the fighting in the 40s - and to the property. About five million Palestinians are claimed by the Palestinian side to have a "right of return".Nigelb said:(FPT)
There is a problem with that simple interpretation, though.Philip_Thompson said:
The Israeli Jews say that they legally own the land and they've owned it since the Ottomans, but were kicked out by the Jordanians and Palestinians settled there and they want their land back. They say they're the legal owners of the land.TOPPING said:
Excellent thanks. So the Israelis tried to turf out the people who had been living there for decades (but perhaps not centuries...).Slackbladder said:
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/clashes-jerusalem-ahead-court-case-palestinians-eviction-2021-05-05/TOPPING said:
Ah. Glad you're on. Not being paying huge attention to it but could you pls let me know what was the catalyst for this latest bout of violence in the ME?Floater said:
These things are clearly real - they do appear to be able to operate both in ways current technology cannot duplicate and also trans medium (ie in water and in air)PoodleInASlipstream said:
As an engineer I've always been naturally sceptical of stories like these, but it's getting harder and harder to maintain that stance. Bonkers as it sounds, clearly something that can be tracked visually, on radar, and by IR is physically present, not some kind of illusion.Leon said:"Lue Elizondo: Look, Bill, I'm not, I'm not telling you that, that it doesn't sound wacky. What I'm telling you, it's real. The question is, what is it? What are its intentions? What are its capabilities?
I'm glad the US is starting to take this seriously. They should pack an aircraft with every sensor known to man, optical, IR, gravimetric, et al, and fly it around in an area where these sightings are happening.
The question is where do they come from - it isn't impossible that they come from China or Russia ( I saw someone say Iran - but nah can't see that ) - but it seems unlikely.
TIA.
Simon the Just, eh? No wonder the problem seems to be intractable.
The Palestinians say that its their home that they were settled in by the Jordanians in the 50s.
The Courts have backed the Jewish owners of the land.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/16/a-raid-a-march-a-court-case-how-israel-spiralled-into-a-deadly-conflict
...The Sheikh Jarrah case is incendiary for many Palestinians because would-be settlers cite an Israeli law allowing Jews to reclaim ownership of property lost before 1948. Palestinians have no equivalent legal means to reclaim property that became part of the state of Israel at the same time. “The law is written to privilege Jews over non-Jews. It is house-by-house, neighbourhood-by-neighbourhood apartheid,” said Yousef Munayyer, a Palestinian political analyst.
The families at the heart of the dispute have lived there since the 1950s, after being forced to abandon or flee their homes in the fighting that preceded the declaration of the state of Israel in 1948....0 -
Just like to point out that those SAGE forecasts had us doing 2.7m vaccinations per week, we're now at 3.7m per week and climbing. I don't understand how scientists with access to government internal data have done a worse job than city analysts who are working with third hand data we get from industry sources.8
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Lets focus on that word "belief". Precious Metals have intrinsic value hence their use as money for millenia. Fiat currency has representative value - a £10 note may cost a few pence to produce but will buy £10 of goods / pay £10 of taxes because government.noneoftheabove said:
All currencies are essentially a matter of belief that you can use them for future goods and services. Yes gold has an intrinsic value as a decorative item of jewellery but that is nothing like £1300 per ounce. It is that price because people believe that others will swap it with them based on thousands of years of gold trade.RochdalePioneers said:
As I am a moron* I don't understand Bitcoin and the various other made up coins. Money is Gold. It has an intrinsic value. Most currency is now a promissory note where its value comes from it being the only way to pay your taxes.Omnium said:
I'm sure you're right.tlg86 said:
A couple of straws in the wind. My sister, who works in a dubious part of financial services, asked me last week whether I wanted to invest in a new coin that is launching next week.Omnium said:
Is that even a theory? So far as I can see economists have given up on theory. They've lit the blue touchpaper, stood well back, but no way are they going back to the firework.rcs1000 said:
I thought Modern Monetary Theory held that deficits are irrelevant and you can print money for ever without any bad stuff happening.contrarian said:Guido quotes the ONS today with the estimate that the pandemic and lockdown to date has cost the taxpayer a cool USD372bn. And that's to May 2021.
Over the next 18 months Johnson & co will be trying to plug gaps and get some of that back. So no, there won't be an early election.
In fact, it would not surprise me if the colossal bill for covid/lockdown is now driving the agenda. It would explain why Johnson, after countless cave-ins, is suddenly standing up to SAGE.
He simply cannot afford not to.
Personally I think that a line needs to be drawn under this QE phase as quickly as possible and no matter the temptation it shouldn't be used again.
The economic climate is so weird at the moment.
On Facebook this morning, someone I know was telling people not to sell bitcoin and that now was a good time to buy etc. etc.
It's all going to end in tears.
I think bitcoin is worth zero. I've never owned any, nor do I want to. I did consider shorting it, but thankfully worked out that any number could be the price. I sort of hope that the crypto-currencies fade away (thus not hurting people really badly), but I'm almost sure that it won't be a clean demise, and I may be massively wrong and one day be forced to use bitcoin as its the only sensible choice. I hope that they fade away mainly because I think they bring massive potential issues with them, and the more valuable they get the worse those issues are.
I'm 100% not the person to trust in terms of these valuations though - I've been completely wrong all the way.
But where is the value in Bitcoin? It has no intrinsic value. It has no inferred value. It isn't an official currency of anywhere. I don't get it.
Cryptos are popular because enough people believe that others will swap it with them in the future because they think the technology/structure of the currency is better (whether it is or not, enough people believe that). So there is a different belief behind them compared to gold, but it is all just about belief, currencies dont have intrinsic value to match their price.
Bitcoin et al have value because some people who believe in Bitcoin have declared it has value. It isn't a currency. It is a religion - one of the cultey ones.0 -
Would you be interested in the NEW investment opportunity of the emerging 2020s?JBriskin3 said:
The crypto crowd have good banter - I'll consider the matter once Groats are taken off the deliberation.tlg86 said:
A couple of straws in the wind. My sister, who works in a dubious part of financial services, asked me last week whether I wanted to invest in a new coin that is launching next week.Omnium said:
Is that even a theory? So far as I can see economists have given up on theory. They've lit the blue touchpaper, stood well back, but no way are they going back to the firework.rcs1000 said:
I thought Modern Monetary Theory held that deficits are irrelevant and you can print money for ever without any bad stuff happening.contrarian said:Guido quotes the ONS today with the estimate that the pandemic and lockdown to date has cost the taxpayer a cool USD372bn. And that's to May 2021.
Over the next 18 months Johnson & co will be trying to plug gaps and get some of that back. So no, there won't be an early election.
In fact, it would not surprise me if the colossal bill for covid/lockdown is now driving the agenda. It would explain why Johnson, after countless cave-ins, is suddenly standing up to SAGE.
He simply cannot afford not to.
Personally I think that a line needs to be drawn under this QE phase as quickly as possible and no matter the temptation it shouldn't be used again.
The economic climate is so weird at the moment.
On Facebook this morning, someone I know was telling people not to sell bitcoin and that now was a good time to buy etc. etc.
It's all going to end in tears.
Crypto-Groat!0
