In the betting punters make it a 59% chance that Starmer will be out before the end of next year – p

Test

Third?

FTP: It was a screaming headline "Boris vote suppressor"?

Do we have evidence of where in comparable countries voter ID leads to sinificantly lower turnout?

So who is there who is both in Parliament and able to beat him?
And not a Tory?

Doesn't "2023 or earlier", mean gone by the end of the year after next? Not next year?

It is perhaps worth recalling that for eleven of the thirteen and a half months that Starmer has been LAB leader he has had better net approval ratings from Opinium than Johnson.

On Net figures, yes but for how many of those months did Starmer have better gross approval ratings than "the man who refuses to tell us how many children he has"?

Afterall the main focus should be on the "satisfaction" figure and be less concerned about the negatives. In terms of predicting electoral outcomes it's the proportion saying they are satisfied that is key. Whether they "don't know" or are not satisfied is irrelevant - they are not ready to be positive.

How seriously should I take Tory criticism of a Labour leader, any Labour leader?

I'm slightly confused by the whole voter ID thing. Could we not start by demanding people actually bring their polling card with them to vote? 15 years ago there was a lot of concern about fraud but not so much now. Do people think there is a major problem?

Reports Boris is about to announce in the HOC a full public enquiry into Covid

Begins in Spring 2022

FrancisUrquhart said:

I foresee the media spending another 3 weeks getting massively overexcited by this.

Voters don't care about Boris not being able to pay his debts. Which of us, earning a six-figure salary, doesn't also have a county court judgement outstanding?
https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1392440278498299906

Re header - BF stuck up a market on Starmer today @MikeSmithson

BREAKING: Boris Johnson has announced a full, independent public inquiry into Covid. Will start spring 2022. Will have legal powers under Inquiries Act.
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1392442357371572235

Scott_xP said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I foresee the media spending another 3 weeks getting massively overexcited by this.

Voters don't care about Boris not being able to pay his debts. Which of us, earning a six-figure salary, doesn't also have a county court judgement outstanding?
https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1392440278498299906

The thing is, actually its probably surprising amount....I know loads of people from university, who graduated and were soon living in London on really good money...and they were always complaining about being broke.

They used to come and see me still at uni, where as I was slaving away on my lowly research grants for far too many years, and I am sure I had more spare cash than them (as my whole life was subsidised).

Scott_xP said:

BREAKING: Boris Johnson has announced a full, independent public inquiry into Covid. Will start spring 2022. Will have legal powers under Inquiries Act.
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1392442357371572235

But it's nearly the end of spring 2021 now!

FrancisUrquhart said:

The thing is, actually its probably surprising amount....I know loads of people from university, who graduated and were soon living in London on really good money...and they were always complaining about being broke.

They used to come and see me still at uni, where as I was slaving away on my lowly research grants for far too many years, and I am sure I had more spare cash than them (as my whole life was subsidised).

How many of them, unable to come up with £600 for a court fine, were simultaneously able to come up with £60,000 "of their own money" to repay a donor?

A telling indicator of how very right some of the more perceptive observers were about the public not giving a toss about petty stories concerning the PM:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1392383617079382016

Stories about the PM's flat refurbishment costs and 'bodies piled high' comments did affect voting intention - but only among the most politically engaged

High engagement
Con 33% (-13 vs 22 Apr)
Lab 38% (+6)

Low/med engagement
Con 46% (+3)
Lab 31% (-4)



Cue reams of petty nonsense about an unpaid bill from people who just don't get it...

Malmesbury said:

Starmer needs to come out with some actual policies.

These need to be social democratic, and broadly applicable. There is a a broad ocean of possible ideas out there which would make both core Labour voters *and* the persuadable middle enthusiastic.

For example, the benefit system needs to be changed so that the opportunity cost of getting a job is massively reduced.

Make it easier and cheaper for people to get jobs. Marginal (effective) taxation of 70%+ is insane.

There are some simply fairness stuff he could do over gig economy jobs e.g. Hermes apparently pay per package and they don't pay if you try and deliver, somebody is out....you will only get the money after you have repeatedly tried to deliver it on your own dime.

Those sort of employment practices are totally unfair. And is very different from saying evil ZHC, ban em, ban everything.

That's one example, but the whole gig industry is full of really naughty stuff like that.

FPT for Richard Tyndall


That ‘time lapse’ video of Birmingham is brilliant. Albeit depressing. One small solace is that modern Brum is somewhat nicer than its nadir in the 1970s. I dimly remember that 70s Bullring. Omg.

There’s a theory that British cities peaked in beauty around 1900. Looks quite true for Birmingham, though 1820 also looks good

Stuartinromford said:

mwadams said:

Artist said:

Things would have to be dire for Labour MPs to risk going to the members again.

This is the major factor people are not considering. The possible range of outcomes for sitting MPs is weighted heavily towards "even more disastrous".

Any alternative has to be tolerable to both a) the various factions in the party and b) to the persuadable bits of the general public. One of the lessons of the Long Conservative Opposition, 1997-2010, was that parties only really make progress when they come to terms with the fact that b) is way more important than a).

Starmer's not great, but the logic leading to his election was sound, and there's no sign of anyone else who is available who would do the job better. One of the limiting factors is on a party leader is the extent to which internal critics rain down blows on you- which is why BoJo made sure to get rid of them. Any Starmer replacement would please one faction, but all the others will be just as wingey as now.

And that kinda sucks for anyone who would like a better government than the one we have right now.

Or alternatively one faction in (a) has to be told to lump it or leave it because the Party is going after (b)

Trying to please all your factions isn't always viable.

Nigelb said:

Regarding import substitution, Europe is looking at the opportunity in solar manufacturing.
https://www.pv-tech.org/up-to-e7-billion-investment-could-be-needed-to-reach-20gw-of-solar-module-manufacturing-capacity-in-europe/

They have some interesting tech (some of which is British), and it wouldn't be ridiculous to target a sector like this.

Hmm, it depends on the value chain. One of the reasons that import substitution tends to fail is because countries that attempt it have a much higher cost structure and more valuable jobs are lost higher up the value chain than are created at the bottom in low end manufacturing due to feed in prices rising.

For example, are we substituting German made BMWs for British made Jaguars? That's not a big deal as we've kept most of the value chain almost identical and it's a net gain in jobs as more Jags are built here to make up for fewer BMWs being bought. Are we replacing machine made semi-manufactured goods imported from Germany with more expensive British manually made goods that have a 50% higher cost with the imports made uncompetitive with tariffs? That is a big deal because Jag are saddled with a higher cost structure and unable to compete with BMW in export markets.

There are areas where import substitution makes sense but I'm not convinced that solar panels is one given just how big the cost differential is vs Chinese made solar panels. If we lumber domestic solar companies higher up the value chain with very high cost panels it may end up collapsing the industry and we won't sell those panels anywhere else as Chinese manufacturers will be offering a slightly lesser product for 10% of the cost.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Malmesbury said:

Starmer needs to come out with some actual policies.

These need to be social democratic, and broadly applicable. There is a a broad ocean of possible ideas out there which would make both core Labour voters *and* the persuadable middle enthusiastic.

For example, the benefit system needs to be changed so that the opportunity cost of getting a job is massively reduced.

Make it easier and cheaper for people to get jobs. Marginal (effective) taxation of 70%+ is insane.

There are some simply fairness stuff he could do over gig economy jobs e.g. Hermes apparently pay per package and they don't pay if you try and deliver, somebody is out....you will only get the money after you have repeatedly tried to deliver it on your own dime.

Those sort of employment practices are totally unfair. And is very different from saying evil ZHC, ban em, ban everything.

That's one example, but the whole gig industry is full of really naughty stuff like that.

But in theory the law already reflects that and people should be receiving at least* the minimum wage for the time they are working

* yes I know that isn't true when you look at waiting time and other tricks but there is (at least) a starting point that can be built from.

Philip_Thompson said:

It is perhaps worth recalling that for eleven of the thirteen and a half months that Starmer has been LAB leader he has had better net approval ratings from Opinium than Johnson.

On Net figures, yes but for how many of those months did Starmer have better gross approval ratings than "the man who refuses to tell us how many children he has"?

Afterall the main focus should be on the "satisfaction" figure and be less concerned about the negatives. In terms of predicting electoral outcomes it's the proportion saying they are satisfied that is key. Whether they "don't know" or are not satisfied is irrelevant - they are not ready to be positive.

Plus, he's just got a hell of a kicking in national polls. Tories gained 230 councillors, Labour lost north of 300.

But, yeah, net approval ratings..... *titters*

eek said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Malmesbury said:

Starmer needs to come out with some actual policies.

These need to be social democratic, and broadly applicable. There is a a broad ocean of possible ideas out there which would make both core Labour voters *and* the persuadable middle enthusiastic.

For example, the benefit system needs to be changed so that the opportunity cost of getting a job is massively reduced.

Make it easier and cheaper for people to get jobs. Marginal (effective) taxation of 70%+ is insane.

There are some simply fairness stuff he could do over gig economy jobs e.g. Hermes apparently pay per package and they don't pay if you try and deliver, somebody is out....you will only get the money after you have repeatedly tried to deliver it on your own dime.

Those sort of employment practices are totally unfair. And is very different from saying evil ZHC, ban em, ban everything.

That's one example, but the whole gig industry is full of really naughty stuff like that.

But in theory the law already reflects that and people should be receiving at least* the minimum wage for the time they are working

* yes I know that isn't true when you look at waiting time and other tricks but there is (at least) a starting point that can be built from.

Well that's where the whole independent contractor stuff comes in.

I think the point I am trying to make is just like when minimum wage came in, it was to really to stop some of the worse of the exploitation in terms of pay per hour. We now need a new rethink on the state of work and what is the acceptable. But so far Labour's approach as been a blanket ZHC boooo, bad, terrible, awful, ban em.

When we know for lots of people they are a decent side hustle and not all these companies are total shits e.g. I believe Amazon Flex is actually fairly decent, they tell you up front its x hrs for £x, you don't have to keep trying to redeliver and if their super computer is way out on how long the route takes they will pay you the difference. And from the driver side, you can cancel your shift upto an hour before without penalty, so if your kid comes down sick or you need to pick them up from school or something, you can do.

tlg86 said:

In a funny way, Batley and Spen is an opportunity for Starmer. We understand that it’s a better seat for Labour than Hartlepool, but the press and probably much of the Westminster Bubble won’t appreciate the difference. So a narrow win for Labour might be seen as a positive for Starmer.

But if the voters there decide to kick that big target on his arse?

https://order-order.com/2021/05/12/thornberry-schooled-after-showing-profound-misunderstanding-on-freeports/

Not just Thornberry - I seem to recall some posters here getting excited about this.

Batley and Spen is easier for Labour than Hartlepool - bluntly there is more non white populace.

Mind you with the shellacking they got there (Beyond giving all the Brexit 19 votes to the Tories), I think the 1-4 / 7-2 odds are about right.

Off topic

I was just wondering whether it is unusual for Prime Ministers to have CCJs issued against them for a circa £500 debt? (Source, the Guardian)

Floater said:

https://order-order.com/2021/05/12/thornberry-schooled-after-showing-profound-misunderstanding-on-freeports/

Not just Thornberry - I seem to recall some posters here getting excited about this.

A human rights lawyer not understanding business, shocked I tell you, shocked.

Commission forecasts UK GDP growth of 5% this year and 5.3% next, significantly above the EU average. Its report cites the 'rather quick' vaccination rollout, end of lockdown, and Rishi Sunak's 'super-deduction' . Negatives are end of furlough and 'permanently lower' UK-EU trade....

...UK GDP fell by 9.8% in 2020, which was the second biggest drop in Europe behind Spain. The EU Commission says the UK economy 'is set to recover to pre-pandemic levels by the third quarter of 2022'.

https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1392406166077071360?s=20

tlg86 said:

MarqueeMark said:

tlg86 said:

In a funny way, Batley and Spen is an opportunity for Starmer. We understand that it’s a better seat for Labour than Hartlepool, but the press and probably much of the Westminster Bubble won’t appreciate the difference. So a narrow win for Labour might be seen as a positive for Starmer.

But if the voters there decide to kick that big target on his arse?

The expectation will be that Labour is going to lose so it might not hurt him all that much.

Or it confirms the expectation that he's a loser.

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Reports Boris is about to announce in the HOC a full public enquiry into Covid

Begins in Spring 2022

An eternity away. "There is bound to be a resurgence in the Autumn" so all the more reason not to understand all that has gone right and all that has gone wrong beforehand.

He is delaying for one simple reason. He currently has a boost from the vaccine and wants to ride that as long as possible before the enquiry tears him apart.

Sorry but that is utter nonsense and he explained all the reasons and as you mention a resurgence in the Autumn was one of those reasons as he did not want to interfer on front line services while this could be a critical period

Also, with respect, you have absolutely no creditability if you think a full public enquiry could be set up, terms of reference agreed, take evidence and produce a conclusion by the Autumn

And if it does attack Boris, then Sturgeon, Drakeford and Foster will all be in the same place as they more or less followed the same advice

Your hatred of Boris at times overwhelms what should be your common sense

"Keir seems sensible but not radical. He lacks a compelling economic message. And the cultural message, because he is not clarifying it, is being defined by the ‘woke’ left, whose every statement gets cut-through courtesy of the right”https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1392440867105886217?s=20

MaxPB said:

Nigelb said:

Regarding import substitution, Europe is looking at the opportunity in solar manufacturing.
https://www.pv-tech.org/up-to-e7-billion-investment-could-be-needed-to-reach-20gw-of-solar-module-manufacturing-capacity-in-europe/

They have some interesting tech (some of which is British), and it wouldn't be ridiculous to target a sector like this.

Hmm, it depends on the value chain. One of the reasons that import substitution tends to fail is because countries that attempt it have a much higher cost structure and more valuable jobs are lost higher up the value chain than are created at the bottom in low end manufacturing due to feed in prices rising.

For example, are we substituting German made BMWs for British made Jaguars? That's not a big deal as we've kept most of the value chain almost identical and it's a net gain in jobs as more Jags are built here to make up for fewer BMWs being bought. Are we replacing machine made semi-manufactured goods imported from Germany with more expensive British manually made goods that have a 50% higher cost with the imports made uncompetitive with tariffs? That is a big deal because Jag are saddled with a higher cost structure and unable to compete with BMW in export markets.

There are areas where import substitution makes sense but I'm not convinced that solar panels is one given just how big the cost differential is vs Chinese made solar panels. If we lumber domestic solar companies higher up the value chain with very high cost panels it may end up collapsing the industry and we won't sell those panels anywhere else as Chinese manufacturers will be offering a slightly lesser product for 10% of the cost.

There is a lot of EU content in a "Jag". Transmission, brakes, ICE, ECU.

Shitty Korean turbos though. #globalbritain

MaxPB said:

Nigelb said:

Regarding import substitution, Europe is looking at the opportunity in solar manufacturing.
https://www.pv-tech.org/up-to-e7-billion-investment-could-be-needed-to-reach-20gw-of-solar-module-manufacturing-capacity-in-europe/

They have some interesting tech (some of which is British), and it wouldn't be ridiculous to target a sector like this.

Hmm, it depends on the value chain. One of the reasons that import substitution tends to fail is because countries that attempt it have a much higher cost structure and more valuable jobs are lost higher up the value chain than are created at the bottom in low end manufacturing due to feed in prices rising.

For example, are we substituting German made BMWs for British made Jaguars? That's not a big deal as we've kept most of the value chain almost identical and it's a net gain in jobs as more Jags are built here to make up for fewer BMWs being bought. Are we replacing machine made semi-manufactured goods imported from Germany with more expensive British manually made goods that have a 50% higher cost with the imports made uncompetitive with tariffs? That is a big deal because Jag are saddled with a higher cost structure and unable to compete with BMW in export markets.

There are areas where import substitution makes sense but I'm not convinced that solar panels is one given just how big the cost differential is vs Chinese made solar panels. If we lumber domestic solar companies higher up the value chain with very high cost panels it may end up collapsing the industry and we won't sell those panels anywhere else as Chinese manufacturers will be offering a slightly lesser product for 10% of the cost.

The opportunity (as the article points out) won't be there for very long, but there's no reason EU production should be vastly different in cost from Chinese, if there were investment at scale across the supply chain.

Coronavirus cases are exploding in Asia and the Pacific with over 5.9 million new confirmed infections in the past two weeks, more than in all other regions combined, the International Federation of the Red Cross has said. It warned that the surge is pushing hospitals and health systems to the brink of collapse.

Seven out of 10 countries globally that are doubling their infection numbers the fastest are in Asia and the Pacific, it said.

ping said:

Mexicanpete said:

Off topic

I was just wondering whether it is unusual for Prime Ministers to have CCJs issued against them for a circa £500 debt? (Source, the Guardian)

He’s a shameless man who doesn’t keep his promises. But we already knew that.

Tory members struck a deal with the devil.

In exchange for seeing off socialism, getting an 82 seat majority and rising.

If that was a Faustian Pact it was worth it.

ping said:

Mexicanpete said:

Off topic

I was just wondering whether it is unusual for Prime Ministers to have CCJs issued against them for a circa £500 debt? (Source, the Guardian)

He’s a shameless man who doesn’t keep his promises. But we already knew that.

Tory members struck a deal with the devil.

Interesting to note that a high street bank official in a similar situation would be in a spot of bother, and would need quite a bit of luck on their side to save their career.

Leon said:

BluestBlue said:

Leon said:

Referencing our prior discussion of architecture. If we’re going to rebuild our city centres like the Germans - restoring them completely to pre-war beauty - we could start with Birmingham.

WTF is that big red brick building? How did that land in the middle of one of our great cities?

It’s like we abandoned all notions of beauty and harmony after 1945. It’s like we tried to make our towns as hideous as possible

‘The Bull Ring in Birmingham, 1931 and today. Chatwin's great church still stands, but all around lies folly and disaster.’

https://twitter.com/scp_hughes/status/1392428776609492993?s=21

True and terribly sad. The Dresden Frauenkirche is the symbol of all we could do, but choose not to:

We have much to learn from Germany. Let’s just copy that. Do it

We did in quite some measure. This was St Bride's Fleet Street



Or preserve ruins .. St Dunstan in the East and Coventry Cathedral.

Personally I think that Sir Basil Spence's new cathedral at Coventry is as good as most Medieval ones in England.

Carnyx said:

ping said:

Mexicanpete said:

Off topic

I was just wondering whether it is unusual for Prime Ministers to have CCJs issued against them for a circa £500 debt? (Source, the Guardian)

He’s a shameless man who doesn’t keep his promises. But we already knew that.

Tory members struck a deal with the devil.

As a matter of interest, do MPs have legal immunity from debt actions? E.g. stopping of their salaries, seizure of goods.

As long as there's one Tory donor left alive it will never reach that stage for our Boris.

Nigelb said:

MaxPB said:

Nigelb said:

Regarding import substitution, Europe is looking at the opportunity in solar manufacturing.
https://www.pv-tech.org/up-to-e7-billion-investment-could-be-needed-to-reach-20gw-of-solar-module-manufacturing-capacity-in-europe/

They have some interesting tech (some of which is British), and it wouldn't be ridiculous to target a sector like this.

Hmm, it depends on the value chain. One of the reasons that import substitution tends to fail is because countries that attempt it have a much higher cost structure and more valuable jobs are lost higher up the value chain than are created at the bottom in low end manufacturing due to feed in prices rising.

For example, are we substituting German made BMWs for British made Jaguars? That's not a big deal as we've kept most of the value chain almost identical and it's a net gain in jobs as more Jags are built here to make up for fewer BMWs being bought. Are we replacing machine made semi-manufactured goods imported from Germany with more expensive British manually made goods that have a 50% higher cost with the imports made uncompetitive with tariffs? That is a big deal because Jag are saddled with a higher cost structure and unable to compete with BMW in export markets.

There are areas where import substitution makes sense but I'm not convinced that solar panels is one given just how big the cost differential is vs Chinese made solar panels. If we lumber domestic solar companies higher up the value chain with very high cost panels it may end up collapsing the industry and we won't sell those panels anywhere else as Chinese manufacturers will be offering a slightly lesser product for 10% of the cost.

The opportunity (as the article points out) won't be there for very long, but there's no reason EU production should be vastly different in cost from Chinese, if there were investment at scale across the supply chain.

Energy cost would be the biggest difference and that's a huge input variable for solar panel manufacturing. Investment will ameliorate any labour cost differential with automation in the EU or UK but neither party will be able to compete with cheap coal energy. Our input price structure is simply much higher for manufacturing than China because of that.

I'd have to look into the detail but as an instant reaction I don't think solar panels are a high enough value class or necessarily require a quality process that would make Western manufacturing competitive. It just seems like a future example of western innovation being stolen by China a few years down the road and all the jobs being lost. 🤷‍♂️

Philip_Thompson said:

ping said:

Mexicanpete said:

Off topic

I was just wondering whether it is unusual for Prime Ministers to have CCJs issued against them for a circa £500 debt? (Source, the Guardian)

He’s a shameless man who doesn’t keep his promises. But we already knew that.

Tory members struck a deal with the devil.

In exchange for seeing off socialism, getting an 82 seat majority and rising.

If that was a Faustian Pact it was worth it.

Worth it every day of the week, and twice on a Sunday!

FrankBooth said:

CarlottaVance said:

Commission forecasts UK GDP growth of 5% this year and 5.3% next, significantly above the EU average. Its report cites the 'rather quick' vaccination rollout, end of lockdown, and Rishi Sunak's 'super-deduction' . Negatives are end of furlough and 'permanently lower' UK-EU trade....

...UK GDP fell by 9.8% in 2020, which was the second biggest drop in Europe behind Spain. The EU Commission says the UK economy 'is set to recover to pre-pandemic levels by the third quarter of 2022'.

https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1392406166077071360?s=20

The more sensible measure is not 'who is going to grow fastest' but who will get back back to pre-covid output levels first (if you want a competition). The noticeably large drop in UK output should be one of the key reasons we are likely to grow fastest.

Wasn't that just a quirk of how it is measured in the UK vs. other countries?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Reports Boris is about to announce in the HOC a full public enquiry into Covid

Begins in Spring 2022

An eternity away. "There is bound to be a resurgence in the Autumn" so all the more reason not to understand all that has gone right and all that has gone wrong beforehand.

He is delaying for one simple reason. He currently has a boost from the vaccine and wants to ride that as long as possible before the enquiry tears him apart.

Sorry but that is utter nonsense and he explained all the reasons and as you mention a resurgence in the Autumn was one of those reasons as he did not want to interfer on front line services while this could be a critical period

Also, with respect, you have absolutely no creditability if you think a full public enquiry could be set up, terms of reference agreed, take evidence and produce a conclusion by the Autumn

And if it does attack Boris, then Sturgeon, Drakeford and Foster will all be in the same place as they more or less followed the same advice

Your hatred of Boris at times overwhelms what should be your common sense

Except.

England has done notably worse than the other home nations.

Going off the FT data, these are the current deaths per 100k:
England 199
Wales 176
Scotland 140 (rather better than France)
N Ireland 113 (almost as low as where Germany is likely to end up)

I think we can assume that the data are comparable in terms of what is and isn't counted as a Covid death. OK, that could be about geography, underlying health, whatever. But there were also critical differences in policy between the four nations. For an infection that doubles in less than a week when unchecked, you don't need big changes in policy to have big changes in outcome. For example, dithering about imposing a lockdown post-Christmas.

And whilst you can't convict PM Johnson on the basis of those figures alone, the idea that all the nation's leaders are in the same "awkward explaining to do" boat simply isn't borne out by the numbers.

Stuartinromford said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Reports Boris is about to announce in the HOC a full public enquiry into Covid

Begins in Spring 2022

An eternity away. "There is bound to be a resurgence in the Autumn" so all the more reason not to understand all that has gone right and all that has gone wrong beforehand.

He is delaying for one simple reason. He currently has a boost from the vaccine and wants to ride that as long as possible before the enquiry tears him apart.

Sorry but that is utter nonsense and he explained all the reasons and as you mention a resurgence in the Autumn was one of those reasons as he did not want to interfer on front line services while this could be a critical period

Also, with respect, you have absolutely no creditability if you think a full public enquiry could be set up, terms of reference agreed, take evidence and produce a conclusion by the Autumn

And if it does attack Boris, then Sturgeon, Drakeford and Foster will all be in the same place as they more or less followed the same advice

Your hatred of Boris at times overwhelms what should be your common sense

Except.

England has done notably worse than the other home nations.

Going off the FT data, these are the current deaths per 100k:
England 199
Wales 176
Scotland 140 (rather better than France)
N Ireland 113 (almost as low as where Germany is likely to end up)

I think we can assume that the data are comparable in terms of what is and isn't counted as a Covid death. OK, that could be about geography, underlying health, whatever. But there were also critical differences in policy between the four nations. For an infection that doubles in less than a week when unchecked, you don't need big changes in policy to have big changes in outcome. For example, dithering about imposing a lockdown post-Christmas.

And whilst you can't convict PM Johnson on the basis of those figures alone, the idea that all the nation's leaders are in the same "awkward explaining to do" boat simply isn't borne out by the numbers.

What do you think of these numbers? Very relevant.

England 432
Wales 151
Northern Ireland 133
Scotland 65

BluestBlue said:

Mexicanpete said:

Off topic

I was just wondering whether it is unusual for Prime Ministers to have CCJs issued against them for a circa £500 debt? (Source, the Guardian)

On topic:

I was just wondering whether it's usual to suffer the worst local election results for a new Opposition leader in 40 years and go on to become Prime Minister?

Probably not, and whether Starmer stands or falls doesn't really concern me personally. It is unfortunate if the opposition are so inept that a Prime Minister cannot control his personal finances up to £600, and yet can continue to hold the purse strings of a nation, and remain unchallenged.

As you know I am witheringly thick, yet even someone so dull as myself, know that the application of a personal CCJ against my name would be very, very bad news.

As if to confirm my stupidity, I momentarily forgot that rules that apply to me do not apply to Johnson.

Stuartinromford said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Reports Boris is about to announce in the HOC a full public enquiry into Covid

Begins in Spring 2022

An eternity away. "There is bound to be a resurgence in the Autumn" so all the more reason not to understand all that has gone right and all that has gone wrong beforehand.

He is delaying for one simple reason. He currently has a boost from the vaccine and wants to ride that as long as possible before the enquiry tears him apart.

Sorry but that is utter nonsense and he explained all the reasons and as you mention a resurgence in the Autumn was one of those reasons as he did not want to interfer on front line services while this could be a critical period

Also, with respect, you have absolutely no creditability if you think a full public enquiry could be set up, terms of reference agreed, take evidence and produce a conclusion by the Autumn

And if it does attack Boris, then Sturgeon, Drakeford and Foster will all be in the same place as they more or less followed the same advice

Your hatred of Boris at times overwhelms what should be your common sense

Except.

England has done notably worse than the other home nations.

Going off the FT data, these are the current deaths per 100k:
England 199
Wales 176
Scotland 140 (rather better than France)
N Ireland 113 (almost as low as where Germany is likely to end up)

I think we can assume that the data are comparable in terms of what is and isn't counted as a Covid death. OK, that could be about geography, underlying health, whatever. But there were also critical differences in policy between the four nations. For an infection that doubles in less than a week when unchecked, you don't need big changes in policy to have big changes in outcome. For example, dithering about imposing a lockdown post-Christmas.

And whilst you can't convict PM Johnson on the basis of those figures alone, the idea that all the nation's leaders are in the same "awkward explaining to do" boat simply isn't borne out by the numbers.

The only times Sturgeon and Drakeford get a free pass from certain quarters is when the PM of the UK with control over UK borders, the on-off nature of financial support for lockdown and direct oversight of the worst Covid death rate among the constituent UK nations is in danger of getting it in the neck.

Theuniondivvie said:

Stuartinromford said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Reports Boris is about to announce in the HOC a full public enquiry into Covid

Begins in Spring 2022

An eternity away. "There is bound to be a resurgence in the Autumn" so all the more reason not to understand all that has gone right and all that has gone wrong beforehand.

He is delaying for one simple reason. He currently has a boost from the vaccine and wants to ride that as long as possible before the enquiry tears him apart.

Sorry but that is utter nonsense and he explained all the reasons and as you mention a resurgence in the Autumn was one of those reasons as he did not want to interfer on front line services while this could be a critical period

Also, with respect, you have absolutely no creditability if you think a full public enquiry could be set up, terms of reference agreed, take evidence and produce a conclusion by the Autumn

And if it does attack Boris, then Sturgeon, Drakeford and Foster will all be in the same place as they more or less followed the same advice

Your hatred of Boris at times overwhelms what should be your common sense

Except.

England has done notably worse than the other home nations.

Going off the FT data, these are the current deaths per 100k:
England 199
Wales 176
Scotland 140 (rather better than France)
N Ireland 113 (almost as low as where Germany is likely to end up)

I think we can assume that the data are comparable in terms of what is and isn't counted as a Covid death. OK, that could be about geography, underlying health, whatever. But there were also critical differences in policy between the four nations. For an infection that doubles in less than a week when unchecked, you don't need big changes in policy to have big changes in outcome. For example, dithering about imposing a lockdown post-Christmas.

And whilst you can't convict PM Johnson on the basis of those figures alone, the idea that all the nation's leaders are in the same "awkward explaining to do" boat simply isn't borne out by the numbers.

The only times Sturgeon and Drakeford get a free pass from certain quarters is when the PM of the UK with control over UK borders, the on-off nature of financial support for lockdown and direct oversight of the worst Covid death rate among the constituent UK nations is in danger of getting it in the neck.

Gee I wonder why Scotland with a population density of 65 / sq km has fewer deaths than England with a population density of 432 / sq km? 🤔

Its almost as if high population density helps spread Covid. Oh rate, it does!

Scott_xP said:

Mexicanpete said:

As you know I am witheringly thick, yet even someone so dull as myself, know that the application of a personal CCJ against my name would be very, very bad news.

As if to confirm my stupidity, I momentarily forgot that rules that apply to me do not apply to Johnson.

Does explain why he can't just get a loan...

Perhaps the PB fanbois could organise a "whip round"?