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In the betting punters make it a 59% chance that Starmer will be out before the end of next year – p
In the betting punters make it a 59% chance that Starmer will be out before the end of next year – politicalbetting.com
Given all the troubles that the Labour leader Keir Starmer appears to be facing at the moment then it is no wonder there has been a move on the betting markets about his future. Betfair don’t seem to have a Starmer exit date market up but Smarkets do although it is a very light on liquidity. Their trend chart is above.
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(Effectively First once owner privileges are controlled for.)
FTP: It was a screaming headline "Boris vote suppressor"?
Do we have evidence of where in comparable countries voter ID leads to sinificantly lower turnout?
Plus if the polls are still as they are there could be a General Election in 2023 after the boundaries change couldn't there? Which could see Starmer out if he loses it.
And not a Tory?
On Net figures, yes but for how many of those months did Starmer have better gross approval ratings than "the man who refuses to tell us how many children he has"?
Afterall the main focus should be on the "satisfaction" figure and be less concerned about the negatives. In terms of predicting electoral outcomes it's the proportion saying they are satisfied that is key. Whether they "don't know" or are not satisfied is irrelevant - they are not ready to be positive.
https://www.pv-tech.org/up-to-e7-billion-investment-could-be-needed-to-reach-20gw-of-solar-module-manufacturing-capacity-in-europe/
They have some interesting tech (some of which is British), and it wouldn't be ridiculous to target a sector like this.
https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1392416320042504197
That debt is more important than @BorisJohnson’s personal finances, his record speaks for itself that he has already broken the rules on declaring his financial interests, and he is already under investigation regarding potentially illegal wrongdoing.
https://twitter.com/AngelaRayner/status/1392439473728806918
Begins in Spring 2022
https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1392440278498299906
Just because something does not impact his, or his party's, electoral performance, doesn't mean it is irrelevant or unimportant. The petty things are in a way worse, as they are so simple to avoid.
Yes, the media, and certain sections of it, will overegg these matters, but there is a fire to go with this smoke.
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1392442357371572235
These need to be social democratic, and broadly applicable. There is a a broad ocean of possible ideas out there which would make both core Labour voters *and* the persuadable middle enthusiastic.
For example, the benefit system needs to be changed so that the opportunity cost of getting a job is massively reduced.
Make it easier and cheaper for people to get jobs. Marginal (effective) taxation of 70%+ is insane.
They used to come and see me still at uni, where as I was slaving away on my lowly research grants for far too many years, and I am sure I had more spare cash than them (as my whole life was subsidised).
https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/12304318/european-super-league-real-madrid-barcelona-and-juventus-under-uefa-investigation-for-involvement-in-breakaway-plans
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1392383617079382016
Stories about the PM's flat refurbishment costs and 'bodies piled high' comments did affect voting intention - but only among the most politically engaged
High engagement
Con 33% (-13 vs 22 Apr)
Lab 38% (+6)
Low/med engagement
Con 46% (+3)
Lab 31% (-4)
Cue reams of petty nonsense about an unpaid bill from people who just don't get it...
His theory is that 80% of the apparently affluent** are in some kind of financial trouble.
*Or binning them as customers.
**6 figure incomes and up.
Those sort of employment practices are totally unfair. And is very different from saying evil ZHC, ban em, ban everything.
That's one example, but the whole gig industry is full of really naughty stuff like that.
That ‘time lapse’ video of Birmingham is brilliant. Albeit depressing. One small solace is that modern Brum is somewhat nicer than its nadir in the 1970s. I dimly remember that 70s Bullring. Omg.
There’s a theory that British cities peaked in beauty around 1900. Looks quite true for Birmingham, though 1820 also looks good
Starmer's not great, but the logic leading to his election was sound, and there's no sign of anyone else who is available who would do the job better. One of the limiting factors is on a party leader is the extent to which internal critics rain down blows on you- which is why BoJo made sure to get rid of them. Any Starmer replacement would please one faction, but all the others will be just as wingey as now.
And that kinda sucks for anyone who would like a better government than the one we have right now.
Trying to please all your factions isn't always viable.
Also , we saw it when Red Ken tried to ping him on his taxes and what we found out was basically he just gets money, pays far too much tax, never thinks about doing anything about it. Oh cripes must write that Telegraph column, deadline is in 2hrs. Bish, bash, bosh, right, time for a drinkie poos. Get to that tax nonsense another day.
For example, are we substituting German made BMWs for British made Jaguars? That's not a big deal as we've kept most of the value chain almost identical and it's a net gain in jobs as more Jags are built here to make up for fewer BMWs being bought. Are we replacing machine made semi-manufactured goods imported from Germany with more expensive British manually made goods that have a 50% higher cost with the imports made uncompetitive with tariffs? That is a big deal because Jag are saddled with a higher cost structure and unable to compete with BMW in export markets.
There are areas where import substitution makes sense but I'm not convinced that solar panels is one given just how big the cost differential is vs Chinese made solar panels. If we lumber domestic solar companies higher up the value chain with very high cost panels it may end up collapsing the industry and we won't sell those panels anywhere else as Chinese manufacturers will be offering a slightly lesser product for 10% of the cost.
The world is no longer split into the top hats in the city vs the steel workers.
In some offices, factories.... we have top end employment practices. Good pay, conditions, strict adherence to legal requirements etc etc. This is true up and down the employment scale.
In parallel, there is a world of shit out there - at all but the highest levels. Some of the lower end office jobs are just as exploitative - piece work contracted to at home workers for example.
* yes I know that isn't true when you look at waiting time and other tricks but there is (at least) a starting point that can be built from.
He is delaying for one simple reason. He currently has a boost from the vaccine and wants to ride that as long as possible before the enquiry tears him apart.
But, yeah, net approval ratings..... *titters*
https://www.politico.eu/coronavirus-in-europe/
I think the point I am trying to make is just like when minimum wage came in, it was to really to stop some of the worse of the exploitation in terms of pay per hour. We now need a new rethink on the state of work and what is the acceptable. But so far Labour's approach as been a blanket ZHC boooo, bad, terrible, awful, ban em.
When we know for lots of people they are a decent side hustle and not all these companies are total shits e.g. I believe Amazon Flex is actually fairly decent, they tell you up front its x hrs for £x, you don't have to keep trying to redeliver and if their super computer is way out on how long the route takes they will pay you the difference. And from the driver side, you can cancel your shift upto an hour before without penalty, so if your kid comes down sick or you need to pick them up from school or something, you can do.
‘Built in 1987 by Quinlan and Francis Terry, The Richmond Riverside Development is universally hated by architects.’
https://twitter.com/wrathofgnon/status/775201543981195265?s=21
Not just Thornberry - I seem to recall some posters here getting excited about this.
OK, that's not exactly Boris' style...
Mind you with the shellacking they got there (Beyond giving all the Brexit 19 votes to the Tories), I think the 1-4 / 7-2 odds are about right.
The only figure who might make a difference is Burnham but he is not even an MP at present
I was just wondering whether it is unusual for Prime Ministers to have CCJs issued against them for a circa £500 debt? (Source, the Guardian)
That's now 30 pax – not 6 pax. The 6 pax / 2 households rule is for INDOORS.
https://www.morningadvertiser.co.uk/Article/2021/05/12/What-are-the-rules-for-pubs-to-reopen-for-indoor-trading-on-Monday-17-May
...UK GDP fell by 9.8% in 2020, which was the second biggest drop in Europe behind Spain. The EU Commission says the UK economy 'is set to recover to pre-pandemic levels by the third quarter of 2022'.
https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1392406166077071360?s=20
Also, with respect, you have absolutely no creditability if you think a full public enquiry could be set up, terms of reference agreed, take evidence and produce a conclusion by the Autumn
And if it does attack Boris, then Sturgeon, Drakeford and Foster will all be in the same place as they more or less followed the same advice
Your hatred of Boris at times overwhelms what should be your common sense
Tory members struck a deal with the devil.
That is a frightening responsibility. The young princes who now stride the parade ground with the confidence born of aristocratic schooling can never be afraid. They never have been. Like latter day Pushkins drilled in the elite academy of Brownian blitzkrieg, they are bursting with their sense of destiny. It’s not the Milibands, the Ballses or the Burnhams who are unconsciously nervous. This is the moment for which they were created. They are ready.
Shitty Korean turbos though. #globalbritain
Seven out of 10 countries globally that are doubling their infection numbers the fastest are in Asia and the Pacific, it said.
If that was a Faustian Pact it was worth it.
If I was betting on this I would certainly be on the lay side of the bet.
Or preserve ruins .. St Dunstan in the East and Coventry Cathedral.
Personally I think that Sir Basil Spence's new cathedral at Coventry is as good as most Medieval ones in England.
I was just wondering whether it's usual to suffer the worst local election results for a new Opposition leader in 40 years and go on to become Prime Minister?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbert_Manzoni
He actually said this:
‘I have never been very certain as to the value of tangible links with the past. They are often more sentimental than valuable... As to Birmingham’s buildings, there is little of real worth in our architecture. Its replacement should be an improvement... As for future generations, I think they will be better occupied in applying their thoughts and energies to forging ahead, rather than looking backward.’
Look at what he demolished, and weep
I'd have to look into the detail but as an instant reaction I don't think solar panels are a high enough value class or necessarily require a quality process that would make Western manufacturing competitive. It just seems like a future example of western innovation being stolen by China a few years down the road and all the jobs being lost. 🤷♂️
If the Tories still have a very healthy lead then surely there's a reasonable chance of having a 2023 election, like 1983, 1987, 2001 and 2005? In which case Starmer could lose that election, resign and be replaced before the end of 2023.
The new boundary review takes place in 2023 so I'd imagine Boris will want to wait until after that before heading to the Palace to ask for a dissolution of Parliament, but there must be reasonable odds of a 2023 election and Starmer being replaced after it.
England has done notably worse than the other home nations.
Going off the FT data, these are the current deaths per 100k:
England 199
Wales 176
Scotland 140 (rather better than France)
N Ireland 113 (almost as low as where Germany is likely to end up)
I think we can assume that the data are comparable in terms of what is and isn't counted as a Covid death. OK, that could be about geography, underlying health, whatever. But there were also critical differences in policy between the four nations. For an infection that doubles in less than a week when unchecked, you don't need big changes in policy to have big changes in outcome. For example, dithering about imposing a lockdown post-Christmas.
And whilst you can't convict PM Johnson on the basis of those figures alone, the idea that all the nation's leaders are in the same "awkward explaining to do" boat simply isn't borne out by the numbers.
England 432
Wales 151
Northern Ireland 133
Scotland 65
As you know I am witheringly thick, yet even someone so dull as myself, know that the application of a personal CCJ against my name would be very, very bad news.
As if to confirm my stupidity, I momentarily forgot that rules that apply to me do not apply to Johnson.
Its almost as if high population density helps spread Covid. Oh rate, it does!