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In the betting punters make it a 59% chance that Starmer will be out before the end of next year – p

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 12 in General
imageIn the betting punters make it a 59% chance that Starmer will be out before the end of next year – politicalbetting.com

Given all the troubles that the Labour leader Keir Starmer appears to be facing at the moment then it is no wonder there has been a move on the betting markets about his future. Betfair don’t seem to have a Starmer exit date market up but Smarkets do although it is a very light on liquidity. Their trend chart is above.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,844
    Test
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 30,757
    edited May 12
    Second

    (Effectively First once owner privileges are controlled for.)
  • MattWMattW Posts: 9,371
    edited May 12
    Third?

    FTP: It was a screaming headline "Boris vote suppressor"?

    Do we have evidence of where in comparable countries voter ID leads to sinificantly lower turnout?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 60,266
    2023 is the year after next isn't it?

    Plus if the polls are still as they are there could be a General Election in 2023 after the boundaries change couldn't there? Which could see Starmer out if he loses it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 13,804
    So who is there who is both in Parliament and able to beat him?
    And not a Tory?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 3,812
    MattW said:

    Third?

    FTP: It was a screaming headline "Boris vote suppressor"?

    Do we have evidence of where in comparable countries voter ID leads to sinificantly lower turnout?

    The US certainly does, but I would argue that, as far as the electoral system goes, the US is effectively a third world country.
  • Medea85Medea85 Posts: 3
    Doesn't "2023 or earlier", mean gone by the end of the year after next? Not next year?
  • NickyBreakspearNickyBreakspear Posts: 108
    dixiedean said:

    So who is there who is both in Parliament and able to beat him?
    And not a Tory?

    Ed Miliband?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 60,266
    It is perhaps worth recalling that for eleven of the thirteen and a half months that Starmer has been LAB leader he has had better net approval ratings from Opinium than Johnson.

    On Net figures, yes but for how many of those months did Starmer have better gross approval ratings than "the man who refuses to tell us how many children he has"?

    Afterall the main focus should be on the "satisfaction" figure and be less concerned about the negatives. In terms of predicting electoral outcomes it's the proportion saying they are satisfied that is key. Whether they "don't know" or are not satisfied is irrelevant - they are not ready to be positive.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 32,735
    Regarding import substitution, Europe is looking at the opportunity in solar manufacturing.
    https://www.pv-tech.org/up-to-e7-billion-investment-could-be-needed-to-reach-20gw-of-solar-module-manufacturing-capacity-in-europe/

    They have some interesting tech (some of which is British), and it wouldn't be ridiculous to target a sector like this.
  • agingjb2agingjb2 Posts: 17
    How seriously should I take Tory criticism of a Labour leader, any Labour leader?
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,875
    edited May 12
    Things would have to be dire for Labour MPs to risk going to the members again.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,355
    The issue of debt when it comes to the Prime Minister is whatever debt of gratitude Boris Johnson owes to the Tory donor who paid to renovate his flat, and what this donor or donors were promised or expected in return for their generosity.

    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1392416320042504197

    That debt is more important than @BorisJohnson’s personal finances, his record speaks for itself that he has already broken the rules on declaring his financial interests, and he is already under investigation regarding potentially illegal wrongdoing.


    https://twitter.com/AngelaRayner/status/1392439473728806918

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 4,772
    I'm slightly confused by the whole voter ID thing. Could we not start by demanding people actually bring their polling card with them to vote? 15 years ago there was a lot of concern about fraud but not so much now. Do people think there is a major problem?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 619
    Artist said:

    Things would have to be dire for Labour MPs to risk going to the members again.

    This is the major factor people are not considering. The possible range of outcomes for sitting MPs is weighted heavily towards "even more disastrous".
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 43,596
    edited May 12
    Reports Boris is about to announce in the HOC a full public enquiry into Covid

    Begins in Spring 2022
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    edited May 12
    Scott_xP said:

    The issue of debt when it comes to the Prime Minister is whatever debt of gratitude Boris Johnson owes to the Tory donor who paid to renovate his flat, and what this donor or donors were promised or expected in return for their generosity.

    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1392416320042504197

    That debt is more important than @BorisJohnson’s personal finances, his record speaks for itself that he has already broken the rules on declaring his financial interests, and he is already under investigation regarding potentially illegal wrongdoing.


    https://twitter.com/AngelaRayner/status/1392439473728806918

    I foresee the media spending another 3 weeks getting massively overexcited by this. Then the Tories win another by-election in a Labour heartland and everybody in the media is again totally confused.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,355

    I foresee the media spending another 3 weeks getting massively overexcited by this.

    Voters don't care about Boris not being able to pay his debts. Which of us, earning a six-figure salary, doesn't also have a county court judgement outstanding?
    https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1392440278498299906
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 67,843

    Scott_xP said:

    The issue of debt when it comes to the Prime Minister is whatever debt of gratitude Boris Johnson owes to the Tory donor who paid to renovate his flat, and what this donor or donors were promised or expected in return for their generosity.

    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1392416320042504197

    That debt is more important than @BorisJohnson’s personal finances, his record speaks for itself that he has already broken the rules on declaring his financial interests, and he is already under investigation regarding potentially illegal wrongdoing.


    https://twitter.com/AngelaRayner/status/1392439473728806918

    I foresee the media spending another 3 weeks getting massively overexcited by this. Then the Tories win another by-election in a Labour heartland and everybody in the media is again totally confused.
    Public interest vs what the public is interested in.

    Just because something does not impact his, or his party's, electoral performance, doesn't mean it is irrelevant or unimportant. The petty things are in a way worse, as they are so simple to avoid.

    Yes, the media, and certain sections of it, will overegg these matters, but there is a fire to go with this smoke.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,021
    Re header - BF stuck up a market on Starmer today @MikeSmithson
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    In a funny way, Batley and Spen is an opportunity for Starmer. We understand that it’s a better seat for Labour than Hartlepool, but the press and probably much of the Westminster Bubble won’t appreciate the difference. So a narrow win for Labour might be seen as a positive for Starmer.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,355
    BREAKING: Boris Johnson has announced a full, independent public inquiry into Covid. Will start spring 2022. Will have legal powers under Inquiries Act.
    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1392442357371572235
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 17,576
    Starmer needs to come out with some actual policies.

    These need to be social democratic, and broadly applicable. There is a a broad ocean of possible ideas out there which would make both core Labour voters *and* the persuadable middle enthusiastic.

    For example, the benefit system needs to be changed so that the opportunity cost of getting a job is massively reduced.

    Make it easier and cheaper for people to get jobs. Marginal (effective) taxation of 70%+ is insane.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    edited May 12
    Scott_xP said:

    I foresee the media spending another 3 weeks getting massively overexcited by this.

    Voters don't care about Boris not being able to pay his debts. Which of us, earning a six-figure salary, doesn't also have a county court judgement outstanding?
    https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1392440278498299906
    The thing is, actually its probably surprising amount....I know loads of people from university, who graduated and were soon living in London on really good money...and they were always complaining about being broke.

    They used to come and see me still at uni, where as I was slaving away on my lowly research grants for far too many years, and I am sure I had more spare cash than them (as my whole life was subsidised).
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 3,816

    I'm slightly confused by the whole voter ID thing. Could we not start by demanding people actually bring their polling card with them to vote? 15 years ago there was a lot of concern about fraud but not so much now. Do people think there is a major problem?

    Bring polling card or ID would be a reasonable compromise. But it leaves the real problem untouched - the failure of the postal vote system to ensure a secret ballot. I don't think anyone will bother to solve it because an astonishing number of people have opted for it for convenience, including lots of older Tories.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923
    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: Boris Johnson has announced a full, independent public inquiry into Covid. Will start spring 2022. Will have legal powers under Inquiries Act.
    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1392442357371572235

    But it's nearly the end of spring 2021 now!
  • isamisam Posts: 37,436
    Are Sir Keir’s ratings particularly bad with YouGov (+17/-65) because they weight by political engagement?




  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,355

    The thing is, actually its probably surprising amount....I know loads of people from university, who graduated and were soon living in London on really good money...and they were always complaining about being broke.

    They used to come and see me still at uni, where as I was slaving away on my lowly research grants for far too many years, and I am sure I had more spare cash than them (as my whole life was subsidised).

    How many of them, unable to come up with £600 for a court fine, were simultaneously able to come up with £60,000 "of their own money" to repay a donor?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited May 12
    A telling indicator of how very right some of the more perceptive observers were about the public not giving a toss about petty stories concerning the PM:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1392383617079382016

    Stories about the PM's flat refurbishment costs and 'bodies piled high' comments did affect voting intention - but only among the most politically engaged

    High engagement
    Con 33% (-13 vs 22 Apr)
    Lab 38% (+6)

    Low/med engagement
    Con 46% (+3)
    Lab 31% (-4)




    Cue reams of petty nonsense about an unpaid bill from people who just don't get it... :lol:
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 17,576
    edited May 12

    Scott_xP said:

    I foresee the media spending another 3 weeks getting massively overexcited by this.

    Voters don't care about Boris not being able to pay his debts. Which of us, earning a six-figure salary, doesn't also have a county court judgement outstanding?
    https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1392440278498299906
    The thing is, actually its probably surprising amount....I know loads of people from university, who graduated and were soon living in London on really good money...and they were always complaining about being broke.

    They used to come and see me still at uni, where as I was slaving away on my lowly research grants for far too many years, and I am sure I had more spare cash than them (as my whole life was subsidised).
    A friend who worked at a private bank was given the job of rebuilding* the finances of various customers. Who were living lifestyle an order of magnitude beyond what their assets and income warranted.

    His theory is that 80% of the apparently affluent** are in some kind of financial trouble.

    *Or binning them as customers.
    **6 figure incomes and up.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    edited May 12

    Starmer needs to come out with some actual policies.

    These need to be social democratic, and broadly applicable. There is a a broad ocean of possible ideas out there which would make both core Labour voters *and* the persuadable middle enthusiastic.

    For example, the benefit system needs to be changed so that the opportunity cost of getting a job is massively reduced.

    Make it easier and cheaper for people to get jobs. Marginal (effective) taxation of 70%+ is insane.

    There are some simply fairness stuff he could do over gig economy jobs e.g. Hermes apparently pay per package and they don't pay if you try and deliver, somebody is out....you will only get the money after you have repeatedly tried to deliver it on your own dime.

    Those sort of employment practices are totally unfair. And is very different from saying evil ZHC, ban em, ban everything.

    That's one example, but the whole gig industry is full of really naughty stuff like that.
  • eekeek Posts: 14,199
    tlg86 said:

    In a funny way, Batley and Spen is an opportunity for Starmer. We understand that it’s a better seat for Labour than Hartlepool, but the press and probably much of the Westminster Bubble won’t appreciate the difference. So a narrow win for Labour might be seen as a positive for Starmer.

    Except that the odds of Labour winning it very much depend on whether a particular 3rd party stands and splits the Tory vote (as any Heavy Woollen voters won't be voting Labour).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 10,353
    FPT for Richard Tyndall


    That ‘time lapse’ video of Birmingham is brilliant. Albeit depressing. One small solace is that modern Brum is somewhat nicer than its nadir in the 1970s. I dimly remember that 70s Bullring. Omg.

    There’s a theory that British cities peaked in beauty around 1900. Looks quite true for Birmingham, though 1820 also looks good
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 3,719
    mwadams said:

    Artist said:

    Things would have to be dire for Labour MPs to risk going to the members again.

    This is the major factor people are not considering. The possible range of outcomes for sitting MPs is weighted heavily towards "even more disastrous".
    Any alternative has to be tolerable to both a) the various factions in the party and b) to the persuadable bits of the general public. One of the lessons of the Long Conservative Opposition, 1997-2010, was that parties only really make progress when they come to terms with the fact that b) is way more important than a).

    Starmer's not great, but the logic leading to his election was sound, and there's no sign of anyone else who is available who would do the job better. One of the limiting factors is on a party leader is the extent to which internal critics rain down blows on you- which is why BoJo made sure to get rid of them. Any Starmer replacement would please one faction, but all the others will be just as wingey as now.

    And that kinda sucks for anyone who would like a better government than the one we have right now.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 60,266

    mwadams said:

    Artist said:

    Things would have to be dire for Labour MPs to risk going to the members again.

    This is the major factor people are not considering. The possible range of outcomes for sitting MPs is weighted heavily towards "even more disastrous".
    Any alternative has to be tolerable to both a) the various factions in the party and b) to the persuadable bits of the general public. One of the lessons of the Long Conservative Opposition, 1997-2010, was that parties only really make progress when they come to terms with the fact that b) is way more important than a).

    Starmer's not great, but the logic leading to his election was sound, and there's no sign of anyone else who is available who would do the job better. One of the limiting factors is on a party leader is the extent to which internal critics rain down blows on you- which is why BoJo made sure to get rid of them. Any Starmer replacement would please one faction, but all the others will be just as wingey as now.

    And that kinda sucks for anyone who would like a better government than the one we have right now.
    Or alternatively one faction in (a) has to be told to lump it or leave it because the Party is going after (b)

    Trying to please all your factions isn't always viable.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    edited May 12
    Scott_xP said:

    The thing is, actually its probably surprising amount....I know loads of people from university, who graduated and were soon living in London on really good money...and they were always complaining about being broke.

    They used to come and see me still at uni, where as I was slaving away on my lowly research grants for far too many years, and I am sure I had more spare cash than them (as my whole life was subsidised).

    How many of them, unable to come up with £600 for a court fine, were simultaneously able to come up with £60,000 "of their own money" to repay a donor?
    I am more tempted to think this CCJ is Boris being Boris....oh yeah, red letter, file that, get to that tomorrow...ohhh wiff waff on the telly. Especially as we have had that COVID thing keeping him a tad busy (plus long COVID, he was definitely totally out of for months).

    Also , we saw it when Red Ken tried to ping him on his taxes and what we found out was basically he just gets money, pays far too much tax, never thinks about doing anything about it. Oh cripes must write that Telegraph column, deadline is in 2hrs. Bish, bash, bosh, right, time for a drinkie poos. Get to that tax nonsense another day.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 30,310
    Nigelb said:

    Regarding import substitution, Europe is looking at the opportunity in solar manufacturing.
    https://www.pv-tech.org/up-to-e7-billion-investment-could-be-needed-to-reach-20gw-of-solar-module-manufacturing-capacity-in-europe/

    They have some interesting tech (some of which is British), and it wouldn't be ridiculous to target a sector like this.

    Hmm, it depends on the value chain. One of the reasons that import substitution tends to fail is because countries that attempt it have a much higher cost structure and more valuable jobs are lost higher up the value chain than are created at the bottom in low end manufacturing due to feed in prices rising.

    For example, are we substituting German made BMWs for British made Jaguars? That's not a big deal as we've kept most of the value chain almost identical and it's a net gain in jobs as more Jags are built here to make up for fewer BMWs being bought. Are we replacing machine made semi-manufactured goods imported from Germany with more expensive British manually made goods that have a 50% higher cost with the imports made uncompetitive with tariffs? That is a big deal because Jag are saddled with a higher cost structure and unable to compete with BMW in export markets.

    There are areas where import substitution makes sense but I'm not convinced that solar panels is one given just how big the cost differential is vs Chinese made solar panels. If we lumber domestic solar companies higher up the value chain with very high cost panels it may end up collapsing the industry and we won't sell those panels anywhere else as Chinese manufacturers will be offering a slightly lesser product for 10% of the cost.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 17,576

    Starmer needs to come out with some actual policies.

    These need to be social democratic, and broadly applicable. There is a a broad ocean of possible ideas out there which would make both core Labour voters *and* the persuadable middle enthusiastic.

    For example, the benefit system needs to be changed so that the opportunity cost of getting a job is massively reduced.

    Make it easier and cheaper for people to get jobs. Marginal (effective) taxation of 70%+ is insane.

    There are some simply fairness stuff he could do over gig economy jobs e.g. Hermes apparently pay per package and they don't pay if you try and deliver, somebody is out....you will only get the money after you have repeatedly tried to deliver it on your own dime.

    Those sort of employment practices are totally unfair. And is very different from saying evil ZHC, ban em, ban everything.

    That's one example, but the whole gig industry is full of really naughty stuff like that.
    Yes - this

    The world is no longer split into the top hats in the city vs the steel workers.

    In some offices, factories.... we have top end employment practices. Good pay, conditions, strict adherence to legal requirements etc etc. This is true up and down the employment scale.

    In parallel, there is a world of shit out there - at all but the highest levels. Some of the lower end office jobs are just as exploitative - piece work contracted to at home workers for example.
  • eekeek Posts: 14,199

    Starmer needs to come out with some actual policies.

    These need to be social democratic, and broadly applicable. There is a a broad ocean of possible ideas out there which would make both core Labour voters *and* the persuadable middle enthusiastic.

    For example, the benefit system needs to be changed so that the opportunity cost of getting a job is massively reduced.

    Make it easier and cheaper for people to get jobs. Marginal (effective) taxation of 70%+ is insane.

    There are some simply fairness stuff he could do over gig economy jobs e.g. Hermes apparently pay per package and they don't pay if you try and deliver, somebody is out....you will only get the money after you have repeatedly tried to deliver it on your own dime.

    Those sort of employment practices are totally unfair. And is very different from saying evil ZHC, ban em, ban everything.

    That's one example, but the whole gig industry is full of really naughty stuff like that.
    But in theory the law already reflects that and people should be receiving at least* the minimum wage for the time they are working

    * yes I know that isn't true when you look at waiting time and other tricks but there is (at least) a starting point that can be built from.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 12,486

    Reports Boris is about to announce in the HOC a full public enquiry into Covid

    Begins in Spring 2022

    An eternity away. "There is bound to be a resurgence in the Autumn" so all the more reason not to understand all that has gone right and all that has gone wrong beforehand.

    He is delaying for one simple reason. He currently has a boost from the vaccine and wants to ride that as long as possible before the enquiry tears him apart.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,201

    It is perhaps worth recalling that for eleven of the thirteen and a half months that Starmer has been LAB leader he has had better net approval ratings from Opinium than Johnson.

    On Net figures, yes but for how many of those months did Starmer have better gross approval ratings than "the man who refuses to tell us how many children he has"?

    Afterall the main focus should be on the "satisfaction" figure and be less concerned about the negatives. In terms of predicting electoral outcomes it's the proportion saying they are satisfied that is key. Whether they "don't know" or are not satisfied is irrelevant - they are not ready to be positive.

    Plus, he's just got a hell of a kicking in national polls. Tories gained 230 councillors, Labour lost north of 300.

    But, yeah, net approval ratings..... *titters*
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,214
    Is Starmer even more boring than Brown? I think he is.. with Brown you could a least laugh at him.. and we did a lot. Starmer is just a nonentity and is unable to engage..
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 50,983
    Hungary overtakes UK in "% fully vaccinated":

    https://www.politico.eu/coronavirus-in-europe/


  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    edited May 12
    eek said:

    Starmer needs to come out with some actual policies.

    These need to be social democratic, and broadly applicable. There is a a broad ocean of possible ideas out there which would make both core Labour voters *and* the persuadable middle enthusiastic.

    For example, the benefit system needs to be changed so that the opportunity cost of getting a job is massively reduced.

    Make it easier and cheaper for people to get jobs. Marginal (effective) taxation of 70%+ is insane.

    There are some simply fairness stuff he could do over gig economy jobs e.g. Hermes apparently pay per package and they don't pay if you try and deliver, somebody is out....you will only get the money after you have repeatedly tried to deliver it on your own dime.

    Those sort of employment practices are totally unfair. And is very different from saying evil ZHC, ban em, ban everything.

    That's one example, but the whole gig industry is full of really naughty stuff like that.
    But in theory the law already reflects that and people should be receiving at least* the minimum wage for the time they are working

    * yes I know that isn't true when you look at waiting time and other tricks but there is (at least) a starting point that can be built from.
    Well that's where the whole independent contractor stuff comes in.

    I think the point I am trying to make is just like when minimum wage came in, it was to really to stop some of the worse of the exploitation in terms of pay per hour. We now need a new rethink on the state of work and what is the acceptable. But so far Labour's approach as been a blanket ZHC boooo, bad, terrible, awful, ban em.

    When we know for lots of people they are a decent side hustle and not all these companies are total shits e.g. I believe Amazon Flex is actually fairly decent, they tell you up front its x hrs for £x, you don't have to keep trying to redeliver and if their super computer is way out on how long the route takes they will pay you the difference. And from the driver side, you can cancel your shift upto an hour before without penalty, so if your kid comes down sick or you need to pick them up from school or something, you can do.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,201
    tlg86 said:

    In a funny way, Batley and Spen is an opportunity for Starmer. We understand that it’s a better seat for Labour than Hartlepool, but the press and probably much of the Westminster Bubble won’t appreciate the difference. So a narrow win for Labour might be seen as a positive for Starmer.

    But if the voters there decide to kick that big target on his arse?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632

    tlg86 said:

    In a funny way, Batley and Spen is an opportunity for Starmer. We understand that it’s a better seat for Labour than Hartlepool, but the press and probably much of the Westminster Bubble won’t appreciate the difference. So a narrow win for Labour might be seen as a positive for Starmer.

    But if the voters there decide to kick that big target on his arse?
    The expectation will be that Labour is going to lose so it might not hurt him all that much.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,186
    https://order-order.com/2021/05/12/thornberry-schooled-after-showing-profound-misunderstanding-on-freeports/

    Not just Thornberry - I seem to recall some posters here getting excited about this.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 3,719

    Reports Boris is about to announce in the HOC a full public enquiry into Covid

    Begins in Spring 2022

    An eternity away. "There is bound to be a resurgence in the Autumn" so all the more reason not to understand all that has gone right and all that has gone wrong beforehand.

    He is delaying for one simple reason. He currently has a boost from the vaccine and wants to ride that as long as possible before the enquiry tears him apart.
    But if the enquiry is going to tear Boris apart, surely the wise thing would be to start ASAP, get the pain out of the way, leave as much time as possible before the next election?

    OK, that's not exactly Boris' style...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,572
    Batley and Spen is easier for Labour than Hartlepool - bluntly there is more non white populace.

    Mind you with the shellacking they got there (Beyond giving all the Brexit 19 votes to the Tories), I think the 1-4 / 7-2 odds are about right.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 87,889
    Replacing Starmer won't make much difference, certainly if it is just with another figure who was very pro EUref2 and anti Brexit before the last general election and from London regardless of gender. When the Tories replaced IDS with Howard they still lost in 2005 despite a few seat gains as ideologically they were very similar.

    The only figure who might make a difference is Burnham but he is not even an MP at present
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 11,744
    Off topic

    I was just wondering whether it is unusual for Prime Ministers to have CCJs issued against them for a circa £500 debt? (Source, the Guardian)
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,186

    Reports Boris is about to announce in the HOC a full public enquiry into Covid

    Begins in Spring 2022

    An eternity away. "There is bound to be a resurgence in the Autumn" so all the more reason not to understand all that has gone right and all that has gone wrong beforehand.

    He is delaying for one simple reason. He currently has a boost from the vaccine and wants to ride that as long as possible before the enquiry tears him apart.
    But if the enquiry is going to tear Boris apart, surely the wise thing would be to start ASAP, get the pain out of the way, leave as much time as possible before the next election?

    OK, that's not exactly Boris' style...
    It will not report before next election.....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    Floater said:

    https://order-order.com/2021/05/12/thornberry-schooled-after-showing-profound-misunderstanding-on-freeports/

    Not just Thornberry - I seem to recall some posters here getting excited about this.

    A human rights lawyer not understanding business, shocked I tell you, shocked.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,572

    Hungary overtakes UK in "% fully vaccinated":

    https://www.politico.eu/coronavirus-in-europe/


    Our vaccine mix is likely more effacious than theirs.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 3,221
    Leon said:

    Continuing the subject of ‘reactionary pastiche’ architecture. We do very occasionally allow it. Quinlan Terry’s Richmond Riverside is an example. Go there now and see the crowds in the sun and you can still hear the ghostly howls of anger from progressive architects





    ‘Built in 1987 by Quinlan and Francis Terry, The Richmond Riverside Development is universally hated by architects.’

    https://twitter.com/wrathofgnon/status/775201543981195265?s=21

    Experts....
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 10,047
    There was a query on the previous thread about pub beer gardens.

    That's now 30 pax – not 6 pax. The 6 pax / 2 households rule is for INDOORS.

    https://www.morningadvertiser.co.uk/Article/2021/05/12/What-are-the-rules-for-pubs-to-reopen-for-indoor-trading-on-Monday-17-May
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 50,983
    Commission forecasts UK GDP growth of 5% this year and 5.3% next, significantly above the EU average. Its report cites the 'rather quick' vaccination rollout, end of lockdown, and Rishi Sunak's 'super-deduction' . Negatives are end of furlough and 'permanently lower' UK-EU trade....

    ...UK GDP fell by 9.8% in 2020, which was the second biggest drop in Europe behind Spain. The EU Commission says the UK economy 'is set to recover to pre-pandemic levels by the third quarter of 2022'.


    https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1392406166077071360?s=20
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,572
    Almost 44,000 welsh vaccinations.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 60,266
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    In a funny way, Batley and Spen is an opportunity for Starmer. We understand that it’s a better seat for Labour than Hartlepool, but the press and probably much of the Westminster Bubble won’t appreciate the difference. So a narrow win for Labour might be seen as a positive for Starmer.

    But if the voters there decide to kick that big target on his arse?
    The expectation will be that Labour is going to lose so it might not hurt him all that much.
    Or it confirms the expectation that he's a loser.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    edited May 12

    There was a query on the previous thread about pub beer gardens.

    That's now 30 pax – not 6 pax. The 6 pax / 2 households rule is for INDOORS.

    https://www.morningadvertiser.co.uk/Article/2021/05/12/What-are-the-rules-for-pubs-to-reopen-for-indoor-trading-on-Monday-17-May

    I presume you are taking full advantage of these new pub freedoms.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 43,596

    Reports Boris is about to announce in the HOC a full public enquiry into Covid

    Begins in Spring 2022

    An eternity away. "There is bound to be a resurgence in the Autumn" so all the more reason not to understand all that has gone right and all that has gone wrong beforehand.

    He is delaying for one simple reason. He currently has a boost from the vaccine and wants to ride that as long as possible before the enquiry tears him apart.
    Sorry but that is utter nonsense and he explained all the reasons and as you mention a resurgence in the Autumn was one of those reasons as he did not want to interfer on front line services while this could be a critical period

    Also, with respect, you have absolutely no creditability if you think a full public enquiry could be set up, terms of reference agreed, take evidence and produce a conclusion by the Autumn

    And if it does attack Boris, then Sturgeon, Drakeford and Foster will all be in the same place as they more or less followed the same advice

    Your hatred of Boris at times overwhelms what should be your common sense
  • pingping Posts: 1,142
    edited May 12

    Off topic

    I was just wondering whether it is unusual for Prime Ministers to have CCJs issued against them for a circa £500 debt? (Source, the Guardian)

    He’s a shameless man who doesn’t keep his promises. But we already knew that.

    Tory members struck a deal with the devil.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 87,889
    "Keir seems sensible but not radical. He lacks a compelling economic message. And the cultural message, because he is not clarifying it, is being defined by the ‘woke’ left, whose every statement gets cut-through courtesy of the right”https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1392440867105886217?s=20
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 6,838
    HYUFD said:

    Replacing Starmer won't make much difference, certainly if it is just with another figure who was very pro EUref2 and anti Brexit before the last general election and from London regardless of gender. When the Tories replaced IDS with Howard they still lost in 2005 despite a few seat gains as ideologically they were very similar.

    The only figure who might make a difference is Burnham but he is not even an MP at present

    If Burnham was the saviour wouldn't that have been picked upon when he was an MP? Yes, he famously got a mention here, but other than that he was largely invisible.

    That is a frightening responsibility. The young princes who now stride the parade ground with the confidence born of aristocratic schooling can never be afraid. They never have been. Like latter day Pushkins drilled in the elite academy of Brownian blitzkrieg, they are bursting with their sense of destiny. It’s not the Milibands, the Ballses or the Burnhams who are unconsciously nervous. This is the moment for which they were created. They are ready.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 7,471
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Regarding import substitution, Europe is looking at the opportunity in solar manufacturing.
    https://www.pv-tech.org/up-to-e7-billion-investment-could-be-needed-to-reach-20gw-of-solar-module-manufacturing-capacity-in-europe/

    They have some interesting tech (some of which is British), and it wouldn't be ridiculous to target a sector like this.

    Hmm, it depends on the value chain. One of the reasons that import substitution tends to fail is because countries that attempt it have a much higher cost structure and more valuable jobs are lost higher up the value chain than are created at the bottom in low end manufacturing due to feed in prices rising.

    For example, are we substituting German made BMWs for British made Jaguars? That's not a big deal as we've kept most of the value chain almost identical and it's a net gain in jobs as more Jags are built here to make up for fewer BMWs being bought. Are we replacing machine made semi-manufactured goods imported from Germany with more expensive British manually made goods that have a 50% higher cost with the imports made uncompetitive with tariffs? That is a big deal because Jag are saddled with a higher cost structure and unable to compete with BMW in export markets.

    There are areas where import substitution makes sense but I'm not convinced that solar panels is one given just how big the cost differential is vs Chinese made solar panels. If we lumber domestic solar companies higher up the value chain with very high cost panels it may end up collapsing the industry and we won't sell those panels anywhere else as Chinese manufacturers will be offering a slightly lesser product for 10% of the cost.
    There is a lot of EU content in a "Jag". Transmission, brakes, ICE, ECU.

    Shitty Korean turbos though. #globalbritain
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923
    ping said:

    Off topic

    I was just wondering whether it is unusual for Prime Ministers to have CCJs issued against them for a circa £500 debt? (Source, the Guardian)

    He’s a shameless man who doesn’t keep his promises. But we already knew that.

    Tory members struck a deal with the devil.
    As a matter of interest, do MPs have legal immunity from debt actions? E.g. stopping of their salaries, seizure of goods.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 32,735
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Regarding import substitution, Europe is looking at the opportunity in solar manufacturing.
    https://www.pv-tech.org/up-to-e7-billion-investment-could-be-needed-to-reach-20gw-of-solar-module-manufacturing-capacity-in-europe/

    They have some interesting tech (some of which is British), and it wouldn't be ridiculous to target a sector like this.

    Hmm, it depends on the value chain. One of the reasons that import substitution tends to fail is because countries that attempt it have a much higher cost structure and more valuable jobs are lost higher up the value chain than are created at the bottom in low end manufacturing due to feed in prices rising.

    For example, are we substituting German made BMWs for British made Jaguars? That's not a big deal as we've kept most of the value chain almost identical and it's a net gain in jobs as more Jags are built here to make up for fewer BMWs being bought. Are we replacing machine made semi-manufactured goods imported from Germany with more expensive British manually made goods that have a 50% higher cost with the imports made uncompetitive with tariffs? That is a big deal because Jag are saddled with a higher cost structure and unable to compete with BMW in export markets.

    There are areas where import substitution makes sense but I'm not convinced that solar panels is one given just how big the cost differential is vs Chinese made solar panels. If we lumber domestic solar companies higher up the value chain with very high cost panels it may end up collapsing the industry and we won't sell those panels anywhere else as Chinese manufacturers will be offering a slightly lesser product for 10% of the cost.
    The opportunity (as the article points out) won't be there for very long, but there's no reason EU production should be vastly different in cost from Chinese, if there were investment at scale across the supply chain.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,572

    HYUFD said:

    Replacing Starmer won't make much difference, certainly if it is just with another figure who was very pro EUref2 and anti Brexit before the last general election and from London regardless of gender. When the Tories replaced IDS with Howard they still lost in 2005 despite a few seat gains as ideologically they were very similar.

    The only figure who might make a difference is Burnham but he is not even an MP at present

    If Burnham was the saviour wouldn't that have been picked upon when he was an MP? Yes, he famously got a mention here, but other than that he was largely invisible.

    That is a frightening responsibility. The young princes who now stride the parade ground with the confidence born of aristocratic schooling can never be afraid. They never have been. Like latter day Pushkins drilled in the elite academy of Brownian blitzkrieg, they are bursting with their sense of destiny. It’s not the Milibands, the Ballses or the Burnhams who are unconsciously nervous. This is the moment for which they were created. They are ready.
    Burnham is an enhanced figure since his MP days.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    Coronavirus cases are exploding in Asia and the Pacific with over 5.9 million new confirmed infections in the past two weeks, more than in all other regions combined, the International Federation of the Red Cross has said. It warned that the surge is pushing hospitals and health systems to the brink of collapse.

    Seven out of 10 countries globally that are doubling their infection numbers the fastest are in Asia and the Pacific, it said.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 4,772

    Commission forecasts UK GDP growth of 5% this year and 5.3% next, significantly above the EU average. Its report cites the 'rather quick' vaccination rollout, end of lockdown, and Rishi Sunak's 'super-deduction' . Negatives are end of furlough and 'permanently lower' UK-EU trade....

    ...UK GDP fell by 9.8% in 2020, which was the second biggest drop in Europe behind Spain. The EU Commission says the UK economy 'is set to recover to pre-pandemic levels by the third quarter of 2022'.


    https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1392406166077071360?s=20

    The more sensible measure is not 'who is going to grow fastest' but who will get back back to pre-covid output levels first (if you want a competition). The noticeably large drop in UK output should be one of the key reasons we are likely to grow fastest.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 60,266
    ping said:

    Off topic

    I was just wondering whether it is unusual for Prime Ministers to have CCJs issued against them for a circa £500 debt? (Source, the Guardian)

    He’s a shameless man who doesn’t keep his promises. But we already knew that.

    Tory members struck a deal with the devil.
    In exchange for seeing off socialism, getting an 82 seat majority and rising.

    If that was a Faustian Pact it was worth it.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 10,047

    There was a query on the previous thread about pub beer gardens.

    That's now 30 pax – not 6 pax. The 6 pax / 2 households rule is for INDOORS.

    https://www.morningadvertiser.co.uk/Article/2021/05/12/What-are-the-rules-for-pubs-to-reopen-for-indoor-trading-on-Monday-17-May

    I presume you are taking full advantage of these new pub freedoms.
    I haven’t as yet... but I hope to do so soon!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 11,744
    ping said:

    Off topic

    I was just wondering whether it is unusual for Prime Ministers to have CCJs issued against them for a circa £500 debt? (Source, the Guardian)

    He’s a shameless man who doesn’t keep his promises. But we already knew that.

    Tory members struck a deal with the devil.
    Interesting to note that a high street bank official in a similar situation would be in a spot of bother, and would need quite a bit of luck on their side to save their career.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,168
    Not really seeing this to be honest. Unless they agree to walk away we have repeatedly seen how difficult it is for Labour to remove a leader who is a clear drag on the party.

    If I was betting on this I would certainly be on the lay side of the bet.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 9,371
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Referencing our prior discussion of architecture. If we’re going to rebuild our city centres like the Germans - restoring them completely to pre-war beauty - we could start with Birmingham.

    WTF is that big red brick building? How did that land in the middle of one of our great cities?

    It’s like we abandoned all notions of beauty and harmony after 1945. It’s like we tried to make our towns as hideous as possible

    ‘The Bull Ring in Birmingham, 1931 and today. Chatwin's great church still stands, but all around lies folly and disaster.’

    https://twitter.com/scp_hughes/status/1392428776609492993?s=21

    True and terribly sad. The Dresden Frauenkirche is the symbol of all we could do, but choose not to:

    We have much to learn from Germany. Let’s just copy that. Do it
    We did in quite some measure. This was St Bride's Fleet Street



    Or preserve ruins .. St Dunstan in the East and Coventry Cathedral.

    Personally I think that Sir Basil Spence's new cathedral at Coventry is as good as most Medieval ones in England.


  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    Off topic

    I was just wondering whether it is unusual for Prime Ministers to have CCJs issued against them for a circa £500 debt? (Source, the Guardian)

    On topic:

    I was just wondering whether it's usual to suffer the worst local election results for a new Opposition leader in 40 years and go on to become Prime Minister? :wink:
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 28,980
    Carnyx said:

    ping said:

    Off topic

    I was just wondering whether it is unusual for Prime Ministers to have CCJs issued against them for a circa £500 debt? (Source, the Guardian)

    He’s a shameless man who doesn’t keep his promises. But we already knew that.

    Tory members struck a deal with the devil.
    As a matter of interest, do MPs have legal immunity from debt actions? E.g. stopping of their salaries, seizure of goods.
    As long as there's one Tory donor left alive it will never reach that stage for our Boris.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 10,353
    edited May 12
    I’ve tracked down the man who destroyed Birmingham. It wasn’t Hermann Goring. Most of central Birmingham survived the war. It was this man. Herbert Manzoni. A progressive town planner

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbert_Manzoni


    He actually said this:


    ‘I have never been very certain as to the value of tangible links with the past. They are often more sentimental than valuable... As to Birmingham’s buildings, there is little of real worth in our architecture. Its replacement should be an improvement... As for future generations, I think they will be better occupied in applying their thoughts and energies to forging ahead, rather than looking backward.’

    Look at what he demolished, and weep
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 30,310
    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Regarding import substitution, Europe is looking at the opportunity in solar manufacturing.
    https://www.pv-tech.org/up-to-e7-billion-investment-could-be-needed-to-reach-20gw-of-solar-module-manufacturing-capacity-in-europe/

    They have some interesting tech (some of which is British), and it wouldn't be ridiculous to target a sector like this.

    Hmm, it depends on the value chain. One of the reasons that import substitution tends to fail is because countries that attempt it have a much higher cost structure and more valuable jobs are lost higher up the value chain than are created at the bottom in low end manufacturing due to feed in prices rising.

    For example, are we substituting German made BMWs for British made Jaguars? That's not a big deal as we've kept most of the value chain almost identical and it's a net gain in jobs as more Jags are built here to make up for fewer BMWs being bought. Are we replacing machine made semi-manufactured goods imported from Germany with more expensive British manually made goods that have a 50% higher cost with the imports made uncompetitive with tariffs? That is a big deal because Jag are saddled with a higher cost structure and unable to compete with BMW in export markets.

    There are areas where import substitution makes sense but I'm not convinced that solar panels is one given just how big the cost differential is vs Chinese made solar panels. If we lumber domestic solar companies higher up the value chain with very high cost panels it may end up collapsing the industry and we won't sell those panels anywhere else as Chinese manufacturers will be offering a slightly lesser product for 10% of the cost.
    The opportunity (as the article points out) won't be there for very long, but there's no reason EU production should be vastly different in cost from Chinese, if there were investment at scale across the supply chain.
    Energy cost would be the biggest difference and that's a huge input variable for solar panel manufacturing. Investment will ameliorate any labour cost differential with automation in the EU or UK but neither party will be able to compete with cheap coal energy. Our input price structure is simply much higher for manufacturing than China because of that.

    I'd have to look into the detail but as an instant reaction I don't think solar panels are a high enough value class or necessarily require a quality process that would make Western manufacturing competitive. It just seems like a future example of western innovation being stolen by China a few years down the road and all the jobs being lost. 🤷‍♂️
  • LeonLeon Posts: 10,353
    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Referencing our prior discussion of architecture. If we’re going to rebuild our city centres like the Germans - restoring them completely to pre-war beauty - we could start with Birmingham.

    WTF is that big red brick building? How did that land in the middle of one of our great cities?

    It’s like we abandoned all notions of beauty and harmony after 1945. It’s like we tried to make our towns as hideous as possible

    ‘The Bull Ring in Birmingham, 1931 and today. Chatwin's great church still stands, but all around lies folly and disaster.’

    https://twitter.com/scp_hughes/status/1392428776609492993?s=21

    True and terribly sad. The Dresden Frauenkirche is the symbol of all we could do, but choose not to:

    We have much to learn from Germany. Let’s just copy that. Do it
    We did in quite some measure. This was St Bride's Fleet Street



    Or preserve ruins .. St Dunstan in the East and Coventry Cathedral.

    Personally I think that Sir Basil Spence's new cathedral at Coventry is as good as most Medieval ones in England.


    We restored a few nice churches. But entire town centres were lost across the land. Worse, we did it to,ourselves. It wasn’t the Luftwaffe. See that link to Brum, below
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    ping said:

    Off topic

    I was just wondering whether it is unusual for Prime Ministers to have CCJs issued against them for a circa £500 debt? (Source, the Guardian)

    He’s a shameless man who doesn’t keep his promises. But we already knew that.

    Tory members struck a deal with the devil.
    In exchange for seeing off socialism, getting an 82 seat majority and rising.

    If that was a Faustian Pact it was worth it.
    Worth it every day of the week, and twice on a Sunday!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 28,980
    I see Poundburyism is the new AI
  • RobDRobD Posts: 54,871

    Commission forecasts UK GDP growth of 5% this year and 5.3% next, significantly above the EU average. Its report cites the 'rather quick' vaccination rollout, end of lockdown, and Rishi Sunak's 'super-deduction' . Negatives are end of furlough and 'permanently lower' UK-EU trade....

    ...UK GDP fell by 9.8% in 2020, which was the second biggest drop in Europe behind Spain. The EU Commission says the UK economy 'is set to recover to pre-pandemic levels by the third quarter of 2022'.


    https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1392406166077071360?s=20

    The more sensible measure is not 'who is going to grow fastest' but who will get back back to pre-covid output levels first (if you want a competition). The noticeably large drop in UK output should be one of the key reasons we are likely to grow fastest.
    Wasn't that just a quirk of how it is measured in the UK vs. other countries?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 60,266
    DavidL said:

    Not really seeing this to be honest. Unless they agree to walk away we have repeatedly seen how difficult it is for Labour to remove a leader who is a clear drag on the party.

    If I was betting on this I would certainly be on the lay side of the bet.

    But its a 2023 market not a "next year" markets as @MikeSmithson says.

    If the Tories still have a very healthy lead then surely there's a reasonable chance of having a 2023 election, like 1983, 1987, 2001 and 2005? In which case Starmer could lose that election, resign and be replaced before the end of 2023.

    The new boundary review takes place in 2023 so I'd imagine Boris will want to wait until after that before heading to the Palace to ask for a dissolution of Parliament, but there must be reasonable odds of a 2023 election and Starmer being replaced after it.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 3,719

    Reports Boris is about to announce in the HOC a full public enquiry into Covid

    Begins in Spring 2022

    An eternity away. "There is bound to be a resurgence in the Autumn" so all the more reason not to understand all that has gone right and all that has gone wrong beforehand.

    He is delaying for one simple reason. He currently has a boost from the vaccine and wants to ride that as long as possible before the enquiry tears him apart.
    Sorry but that is utter nonsense and he explained all the reasons and as you mention a resurgence in the Autumn was one of those reasons as he did not want to interfer on front line services while this could be a critical period

    Also, with respect, you have absolutely no creditability if you think a full public enquiry could be set up, terms of reference agreed, take evidence and produce a conclusion by the Autumn

    And if it does attack Boris, then Sturgeon, Drakeford and Foster will all be in the same place as they more or less followed the same advice

    Your hatred of Boris at times overwhelms what should be your common sense
    Except.

    England has done notably worse than the other home nations.

    Going off the FT data, these are the current deaths per 100k:
    England 199
    Wales 176
    Scotland 140 (rather better than France)
    N Ireland 113 (almost as low as where Germany is likely to end up)

    I think we can assume that the data are comparable in terms of what is and isn't counted as a Covid death. OK, that could be about geography, underlying health, whatever. But there were also critical differences in policy between the four nations. For an infection that doubles in less than a week when unchecked, you don't need big changes in policy to have big changes in outcome. For example, dithering about imposing a lockdown post-Christmas.

    And whilst you can't convict PM Johnson on the basis of those figures alone, the idea that all the nation's leaders are in the same "awkward explaining to do" boat simply isn't borne out by the numbers.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 3,719
    ping said:

    Off topic

    I was just wondering whether it is unusual for Prime Ministers to have CCJs issued against them for a circa £500 debt? (Source, the Guardian)

    He’s a shameless man who doesn’t keep his promises. But we already knew that.

    Tory members struck a deal with the devil.
    And the devil, like the courts, always collects his debts in the end.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 60,266

    Reports Boris is about to announce in the HOC a full public enquiry into Covid

    Begins in Spring 2022

    An eternity away. "There is bound to be a resurgence in the Autumn" so all the more reason not to understand all that has gone right and all that has gone wrong beforehand.

    He is delaying for one simple reason. He currently has a boost from the vaccine and wants to ride that as long as possible before the enquiry tears him apart.
    Sorry but that is utter nonsense and he explained all the reasons and as you mention a resurgence in the Autumn was one of those reasons as he did not want to interfer on front line services while this could be a critical period

    Also, with respect, you have absolutely no creditability if you think a full public enquiry could be set up, terms of reference agreed, take evidence and produce a conclusion by the Autumn

    And if it does attack Boris, then Sturgeon, Drakeford and Foster will all be in the same place as they more or less followed the same advice

    Your hatred of Boris at times overwhelms what should be your common sense
    Except.

    England has done notably worse than the other home nations.

    Going off the FT data, these are the current deaths per 100k:
    England 199
    Wales 176
    Scotland 140 (rather better than France)
    N Ireland 113 (almost as low as where Germany is likely to end up)

    I think we can assume that the data are comparable in terms of what is and isn't counted as a Covid death. OK, that could be about geography, underlying health, whatever. But there were also critical differences in policy between the four nations. For an infection that doubles in less than a week when unchecked, you don't need big changes in policy to have big changes in outcome. For example, dithering about imposing a lockdown post-Christmas.

    And whilst you can't convict PM Johnson on the basis of those figures alone, the idea that all the nation's leaders are in the same "awkward explaining to do" boat simply isn't borne out by the numbers.
    What do you think of these numbers? Very relevant.

    England 432
    Wales 151
    Northern Ireland 133
    Scotland 65
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 32,735
    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Referencing our prior discussion of architecture. If we’re going to rebuild our city centres like the Germans - restoring them completely to pre-war beauty - we could start with Birmingham.

    WTF is that big red brick building? How did that land in the middle of one of our great cities?

    It’s like we abandoned all notions of beauty and harmony after 1945. It’s like we tried to make our towns as hideous as possible

    ‘The Bull Ring in Birmingham, 1931 and today. Chatwin's great church still stands, but all around lies folly and disaster.’

    https://twitter.com/scp_hughes/status/1392428776609492993?s=21

    True and terribly sad. The Dresden Frauenkirche is the symbol of all we could do, but choose not to:

    We have much to learn from Germany. Let’s just copy that. Do it
    We did in quite some measure. This was St Bride's Fleet Street



    Or preserve ruins .. St Dunstan in the East and Coventry Cathedral.

    Personally I think that Sir Basil Spence's new cathedral at Coventry is as good as most Medieval ones in England.

    And some of the rest of Coventry as bad as the crappy bits of Birmingham and Portsmouth.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 11,744

    Off topic

    I was just wondering whether it is unusual for Prime Ministers to have CCJs issued against them for a circa £500 debt? (Source, the Guardian)

    On topic:

    I was just wondering whether it's usual to suffer the worst local election results for a new Opposition leader in 40 years and go on to become Prime Minister? :wink:
    Probably not, and whether Starmer stands or falls doesn't really concern me personally. It is unfortunate if the opposition are so inept that a Prime Minister cannot control his personal finances up to £600, and yet can continue to hold the purse strings of a nation, and remain unchallenged.

    As you know I am witheringly thick, yet even someone so dull as myself, know that the application of a personal CCJ against my name would be very, very bad news.

    As if to confirm my stupidity, I momentarily forgot that rules that apply to me do not apply to Johnson.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 9,371
    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Continuing the subject of ‘reactionary pastiche’ architecture. We do very occasionally allow it. Quinlan Terry’s Richmond Riverside is an example. Go there now and see the crowds in the sun and you can still hear the ghostly howls of anger from progressive architects





    ‘Built in 1987 by Quinlan and Francis Terry, The Richmond Riverside Development is universally hated by architects.’

    https://twitter.com/wrathofgnon/status/775201543981195265?s=21

    Experts....
    Isn't that the one where you can see the new floors cutting the old windows in half?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 28,980

    Reports Boris is about to announce in the HOC a full public enquiry into Covid

    Begins in Spring 2022

    An eternity away. "There is bound to be a resurgence in the Autumn" so all the more reason not to understand all that has gone right and all that has gone wrong beforehand.

    He is delaying for one simple reason. He currently has a boost from the vaccine and wants to ride that as long as possible before the enquiry tears him apart.
    Sorry but that is utter nonsense and he explained all the reasons and as you mention a resurgence in the Autumn was one of those reasons as he did not want to interfer on front line services while this could be a critical period

    Also, with respect, you have absolutely no creditability if you think a full public enquiry could be set up, terms of reference agreed, take evidence and produce a conclusion by the Autumn

    And if it does attack Boris, then Sturgeon, Drakeford and Foster will all be in the same place as they more or less followed the same advice

    Your hatred of Boris at times overwhelms what should be your common sense
    Except.

    England has done notably worse than the other home nations.

    Going off the FT data, these are the current deaths per 100k:
    England 199
    Wales 176
    Scotland 140 (rather better than France)
    N Ireland 113 (almost as low as where Germany is likely to end up)

    I think we can assume that the data are comparable in terms of what is and isn't counted as a Covid death. OK, that could be about geography, underlying health, whatever. But there were also critical differences in policy between the four nations. For an infection that doubles in less than a week when unchecked, you don't need big changes in policy to have big changes in outcome. For example, dithering about imposing a lockdown post-Christmas.

    And whilst you can't convict PM Johnson on the basis of those figures alone, the idea that all the nation's leaders are in the same "awkward explaining to do" boat simply isn't borne out by the numbers.
    The only times Sturgeon and Drakeford get a free pass from certain quarters is when the PM of the UK with control over UK borders, the on-off nature of financial support for lockdown and direct oversight of the worst Covid death rate among the constituent UK nations is in danger of getting it in the neck.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,355

    As you know I am witheringly thick, yet even someone so dull as myself, know that the application of a personal CCJ against my name would be very, very bad news.

    As if to confirm my stupidity, I momentarily forgot that rules that apply to me do not apply to Johnson.

    Does explain why he can't just get a loan...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 60,266

    Reports Boris is about to announce in the HOC a full public enquiry into Covid

    Begins in Spring 2022

    An eternity away. "There is bound to be a resurgence in the Autumn" so all the more reason not to understand all that has gone right and all that has gone wrong beforehand.

    He is delaying for one simple reason. He currently has a boost from the vaccine and wants to ride that as long as possible before the enquiry tears him apart.
    Sorry but that is utter nonsense and he explained all the reasons and as you mention a resurgence in the Autumn was one of those reasons as he did not want to interfer on front line services while this could be a critical period

    Also, with respect, you have absolutely no creditability if you think a full public enquiry could be set up, terms of reference agreed, take evidence and produce a conclusion by the Autumn

    And if it does attack Boris, then Sturgeon, Drakeford and Foster will all be in the same place as they more or less followed the same advice

    Your hatred of Boris at times overwhelms what should be your common sense
    Except.

    England has done notably worse than the other home nations.

    Going off the FT data, these are the current deaths per 100k:
    England 199
    Wales 176
    Scotland 140 (rather better than France)
    N Ireland 113 (almost as low as where Germany is likely to end up)

    I think we can assume that the data are comparable in terms of what is and isn't counted as a Covid death. OK, that could be about geography, underlying health, whatever. But there were also critical differences in policy between the four nations. For an infection that doubles in less than a week when unchecked, you don't need big changes in policy to have big changes in outcome. For example, dithering about imposing a lockdown post-Christmas.

    And whilst you can't convict PM Johnson on the basis of those figures alone, the idea that all the nation's leaders are in the same "awkward explaining to do" boat simply isn't borne out by the numbers.
    The only times Sturgeon and Drakeford get a free pass from certain quarters is when the PM of the UK with control over UK borders, the on-off nature of financial support for lockdown and direct oversight of the worst Covid death rate among the constituent UK nations is in danger of getting it in the neck.
    Gee I wonder why Scotland with a population density of 65 / sq km has fewer deaths than England with a population density of 432 / sq km? 🤔

    Its almost as if high population density helps spread Covid. Oh rate, it does!
  • FossFoss Posts: 417
    edited May 12
    Leon said:

    I’ve tracked down the man who destroyed Birmingham. It wasn’t Hermann Goring. Most of central Birmingham survived the war. It was this man. Herbert Manzoni. A progressive town planner

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbert_Manzoni


    He actually said this:


    ‘I have never been very certain as to the value of tangible links with the past. They are often more sentimental than valuable... As to Birmingham’s buildings, there is little of real worth in our architecture. Its replacement should be an improvement... As for future generations, I think they will be better occupied in applying their thoughts and energies to forging ahead, rather than looking backward.’

    Look at what he demolished, and weep

    If your making lists of those who sinned against Birmingham then you should probably add John Madin.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 11,744
    Scott_xP said:

    As you know I am witheringly thick, yet even someone so dull as myself, know that the application of a personal CCJ against my name would be very, very bad news.

    As if to confirm my stupidity, I momentarily forgot that rules that apply to me do not apply to Johnson.

    Does explain why he can't just get a loan...
    Perhaps the PB fanbois could organise a "whip round"?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited May 12

    Off topic

    I was just wondering whether it is unusual for Prime Ministers to have CCJs issued against them for a circa £500 debt? (Source, the Guardian)

    On topic:

    I was just wondering whether it's usual to suffer the worst local election results for a new Opposition leader in 40 years and go on to become Prime Minister? :wink:
    Probably not, and whether Starmer stands or falls doesn't really concern me personally. It is unfortunate if the opposition are so inept that a Prime Minister cannot control his personal finances up to £600, and yet can continue to hold the purse strings of a nation, and remain unchallenged.

    As you know I am witheringly thick, yet even someone so dull as myself, know that the application of a personal CCJ against my name would be very, very bad news.

    As if to confirm my stupidity, I momentarily forgot that rules that apply to me do not apply to Johnson.
    I have no idea whether or not you're stupid, but you are obsessed with small-minded irrelevancies. People with a normal sense of perspective can understand how a Prime Minister in the middle of the greatest domestic crisis in a hundred years could have missed a bill, if they bother to trouble their minds about the matter at all.
This discussion has been closed.