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Boris should start Scottish independence negotiations now – politicalbetting.com
Boris should start Scottish independence negotiations now – politicalbetting.com
Goodbye separation trauma; hello separation trauma. After this week’s elections, Holyrood will again have a pro-Independence majority meaning the constitutional arguments of the last decade will not only continue but intensify. While the SNP look unlikely to win an overall majority, the Greens should see them over the line. Cue demands for a second referendum such as we have never heard for months.
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The header may offer sound advice but taken as a whole, it is reminiscent of Bitter Together or Project Fear, concentrating on the drawbacks of independence rather than the advantages of union.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9555867/Boris-Johnson-Carrie-Symonds-rent-1-2million-south-London-townhouse.html
If he really does spend 10 years as PM, he will be bankrupt.
If the SNP fail to win an outright majority then Westminster have every right to ignore the latest clamour. The SNP will always ask for independence: it's why they exist. But they didn't win an outright majority for it.
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In the meantime he has once again proven that he is a winning politician and in the process he has confounded his critics.
End of.
The union remains.
Last time, Better Together were always on the defensive (not that they changed much in the last seven years) because Salmond was offering the moon on a stick. And yes, everyone knew he was lying but that didn’t make it easier to rebut positively.
Whether they would make that case is another question.
However, let's wait and see what the final results in Scotland are first.
Moreover you are never going to spend the time and energy to negotiate a full treaty prior to a vote so whatever you produce will be just a heads of terms that gets ignore if a referendum is won by the SNP
Alternatively the SNP just says “that’s just time wasting stop messing around and give us what we want”
Ultimately it depends on the vote. If the list vote is under 50% for independence minded parties then there isn’t a mandate regardless of the number of MPs.
In no way on God's green earth did I ever predict Shaun Bailey or the Conservatives having a good result in London. Never.
Lots of analysis to do afterwards, methinks.
The voters are allowed to change their minds, and what one set of representatives said to another is of no consequences.
But the Tories won’t tamper with FPTP at local level because it gives them a majority at Westminster and they don’t want to risk that. And Labour won’t tamper with D’Hondt because it may bugger them in Scotland but it’s keeping them healthy elsewhere.
It is to the eternal credit of the SNP - not something I write often - that they did make the effort to reform local government elections in Scotland and came up with what seems from this distance like a much better system.
They've come up short in both votes and seats.
Although it does look as though it might brighten up later.
On topic, I doubt whether the PM will go anywhere near the independence debate. On the contrary, I think he just might suggest the repeal of the Devolution Acts.
You’re right, it’s a strong possibility, isn’t it?
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-eyes-decade-in-power-5p8hfd72p
I fear for the Tories in London.
And who is the Conservative candidate who had a shot? Not Rory- he'd been kicked out of the Cabinet and party as part of Johnson's relaunch. On the same basis, nobody like Rory. And the type of anti-metropolitan who is the core Conservative these days would struggle to appeal in the metropolis.
Boris has no mandate to negotiate with Sturgeon.
The other boroughs you mentioned have returned poor results for Sadiq - however, the constituency vote was much stronger for Labour I believe. So, yes Sadiq is under-performing as expected.
I have backed it.
"Labour MP Khalid Mahmood has doubled down on his scathing criticism of the party after its defeat in Hartlepool, saying Labour has become too focused on London-centric issues which are irrelevant to working-class people.
In an article published on Friday, Mahmood said the Labour party had been captured by a “London-based bourgeoisie” and “brigades of woke social media warriors”."
Referenda are rarely good idea. In fact, they are invariably bad. They don't resolve issues satisfactorily. It's more than possible that another indy referendum would lead to another nasty split in the vote like Brexit did and that will leave rancour. It won't resolve things in the way some seem to assume it will.
There was a once in a lifetime referendum in 2014. The Scottish people voted 'no.' If they wished to have another referendum they are certainly entitled to it morally but the fact is, they haven't voted for it. Scottish unionists polled more than 50%.
There will not be another referendum for the foreseeable. Nor should there be.
Brexit was all sorted inside his first 6 months. Covid inside another 15-18 months. First half a dozen chapters of the memoirs then.
Sometimes I suppose political figures really are defined by something very early in their leadership. Will Boris spend his time chasing a different but elusive legacy to the above two? Or is there something else waiting over the hills for him...
Julie Owen Moylan @JulieOwenMoylan
Labour needs a listening exercise but from my experience of working class life I think the middle class left think it’s all food banks and poverty. That’s not the experience of most working class people. They own their houses and go on nice holidays. Lab doesn’t speak to them.
Massive problems ahead viz. the Union.
Don’t rule out that being his downfall again...
Scotland at the moment is not pro independence. The split is something like 55-45 in favour of staying in the union.
Which just leaves Northern Ireland. Now that is in a thorny place but it has been thus for a long time. Brexit has clearly shaken the Good Friday Agreement. No one wants troubles to build so there is good will on all sides to make the situation work peaceably.
If Labour aren't going forward in London against one of the Tories' worst candidates in years then there's no realignment, there's just the Labour party losing it's old heartlands.
I presume cutting down the trees has had quite a political impact.
I toyed in the polling booth with giving him a second preference, and then thought - why? he hasn’t deserved it?
Mr. Mark, cutting down a tree that may have been unusually resistant to Dutch Elm Disease was particularly stupid.
Don’t know if that’s possible, maybe with support from an independent or two?
There’s even a chance the Alliance take First Ministership next elections.
Very thoughtful and tightly argued thread header, btw.
I don’t believe there’s any legal or moral obligation to concede a referendum.
However I agree that Westminster should get in front of the argument. Boris needs to announce a Commission on Devolution as quickly as possible.
The Greens should probably put a big focus on Sheffield Central..
I wonder if overall vote was suppressed as Khan did not inspire.
https://jonn.substack.com/p/its-the-demographics-stupid
In what universe was a pro-independence majority on the list vote a possibility?
1. Bexley & Bromley: Bailey by 56,280 votes
2. Brent & Harrow: Bailey by 3,788 votes
3. Ealing & Hillingdon: Bailey by 5,009 votes
4. Havering & Redbridge: Bailey by 32,543 votes
5. Lambeth & Southwark: Khan by 56,966 votes
6. North East: Khan by 67,126 votes
7. West Central: Bailey by 2,205 votes
Overall for these 7 constituencies: Khan by 24,267
Still to come:
8. Barnet & Camden
9. City & East
10. Croydon & Sutton
11. Enfield & Haringey
12. Greenwich & Lewisham
13. Merton & Wandsworth
14. South West
https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1390862191809777664
I think that Rhun ab Iorwerth is likely to mount a challenge sooner rather than later. If there’s a market on Price to be out before the end of the year, there should be value.
And seeing a mention for John Cole just reminded me how poor TV politics coverage is now. Where he gave intelligent analysis, we now get bland platitudes - except for the bloke on Newsnight
Some signs of life in the South and Wales and even possibly in Scotland.
In my view they could tie the Tories in terms of polling if Starmer is prepared to go to war with the minority of the membership that are loonies
It's just embarrassing from Labour tbh
Outline negotiations need to happen before a referendum, not after. Indeed it is questionable that we would have Brexited if the Oven Ready Deal had been put to the nation. Those looking at votes cast conveniently ignore that a majority of votes went to parties supporting a further Brexit vote in 2019.
Considering the torrid time Sturgeon and the SNP have had in the courts these last months, it is an outstanding SNP performance. English MPs refusing a referendum requested by Scottish MPs will not just be an offence against democracy, but also stirs up even further the sense of Scottish grievance.
The idea of Wales going independent always seemed absurd to me but I assumed i was just out of touch. Turns out the media are the ones out of touch.
I am going to be fascinated to see how the polling looks over the next few weeks/months. The 6 point average seems about right and matches with the LE results - how much of that is the vaccine “bounce” as seemingly Labour has seen in Wales?
Perhaps call me arrogant but this is in no way as bad for Labour as reported. Don’t get me wrong it’s terrible but it is not death for the party. Not yet - Starmer has got just a bit of time to turn it around. But time is rapidly running out.
Johnsons act doesn't appeal much outside England, and that sense of English arrogance to the other three nations is the biggest threat to the Union.