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The Great Unknown: A Betting History Of The Great British By-Election

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  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,793
    RobD said:

    Well it did start with a poll saying the Tories were 17 points up in Hartlepool.
    Yes, it reminds me of the scene in Life of Brian when all the insurgents are fighting together over whose idea it was to kidnap Pilot's wife:

    BRIAN: We mustn't fight each other! Surely we should be united against the common enemy!
    EVERYONE: The Judean People's Front?!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,852
    edited May 2021
    Charles said:

    Father Lenin said the Labour Party was a party of the worst kind of bourgeoisie reactionary. He is as right now as he was then.
    I was out exploring Clerkenwell over the weekend and my guide pointed out the pub that Lenin and Joe Stalin used to drink in after work…

    +++++

    Which is?

    It is theoretically possible - and, to me, delightful - that Lenin, Stalin and Hitler all drank in the Fitzroy Tavern on Charlotte St, at the same time. Possibly with a young Aleister Crowley
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,511
    Unpopular said:

    Morning!
    Thought I would give this a go after about a decade of lurking. Incidentally, it started when a teacher of mine suggested that checking the betting markets is a better predicter of election results than the polls. My feeling is the assertion has taken some hammering since then and I suspect the market has moved against it (no doubt very profitably).

    Off Topic, I was really interested in a comment from a previous thread yesterday that linked to a thread from Ciaran Martin on the constitutionality of the IndyRef and what all this means for the future of the Union. Essentially, there's nothing left to devolve and Federalism means either; very unequal federal system, or the clawing of powers back from Holyrood and the dissolution of England as a political entity. Martin's point about federalism and devolution not being one and the same was very shrewd. My suggestion? Enter the third chamber!

    Simply add a House of Nations to Parliament, 100 seats, elected by PR and equally distributed among the Nations. Any legislation requires majorities of 2/4 delegations to pass. So, 13 Seats in England, 13 seats in Wales would see a bill go through (having passed the representatives in the Commons in a majority, indicating broad support). This would limit nationalist parties from blocking, while giving equal representation to the Nations.

    Now, I don't know if constitutional fanfiction is something we do here but I'm pretty proud of the idea!

    Somebody proposed something fairly similar a few weeks ago. But it has the obvious objection that 5 million Welsh and Northern Irish could defeat something that 60 million English and Scots really want.

    Also, it's not true that there's nothing left to devolve. This wikipedia page lists several dozen powers that could be devolved:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters#List_of_reserved_matters

    For instance, time zones are reserved. But why shouldn't Scotland choose a different time zone from England if it wants? Or weights and measures. If England wants to go Imperial why is it any of Wales's business? Judicial salaries - the same. etc. etc.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151
    'I think a puff of wind would blow the Prime Minister over...He's not half the Prime Minister even that David Cameron was'

    @AlexSalmond thinks Boris will be gone in two weeks! Watch the full exclusive interview with @MichaelLCrick: https://www.mailplus.co.uk/tv/the-michael-crick-report/68237/alex-salmond-exclusive-the-union-will-outlive-boris-hell-be-gone-in-two-weeks
    https://twitter.com/mailplus/status/1389546598313648129/video/1
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121
    edited May 2021
    eek said:

    In which case I take it you don't know Sunak. Although Patel, Gove and Raab would all have problems..
    Sunak would have more appeal to upper middle class Remain or soft Leave areas of London and the Home Counties like Richmond Park, Esher and Walton, Putney, St Albans and Enfield Southgate and Oxford West and Abingdon than Boris does but less appeal than Boris does in white working class strong Leave areas of the North and Midlands in my view.

    Patel, Gove and Raab would have less appeal to either group than Boris, granted
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741

    https://twitter.com/KerronCross/status/1388220845064077319

    this is a very serious electoral offence. I thought from Guido it was just some home made brownies handed out. This is the very literal definition of 'treating'. People can go to jail for this..

    I would look at that again - it seems to be a Labour candidate giving cookies to another Labour candidate.

    Not quite the story you are making it out to be - on first glance it looks way bad, and then you check the profiles and see that it's just a thank you for work done.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Just a comment on lockdown, opening up and mental health. I have generally been very supportive of lockdowns and think it was essential on previous occasions.

    I am now of the view that we are causing more harm than good. 2/3rds of the population has had at least one vaccine dose. Cases of Covid are where they were last Summer and even deaths are at a low level. I know we are no longer in a true lockdown but there are still impacts. I believe now that more deaths are probably being caused as a result of lockdown than are being saved.

    I know within the last week of two suicides (neither I knew closely) - one in their early 40s, the other in their 20s. Whilst no one can say if it wouldn't have happened without lockdowns, it certainly hasn't helped. Both of them had plenty of life to live. We have to give other people in similar situations hope and opportunity. Young people particularly have given up so much to protect the older generations. It is time we started protecting their mental health.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,858

    I joined Labour a few years ago full of enthusiasm and verve excited and hoping to get a Labour government.

    Prior to ever joining Labour they weren't worth voting for in an election but I preferred them to the Tories and hoped (a little) that they beat them.

    My current attitude of delighting in seeing the evil people running the Labour party fail is my experience of what absolutely awful vile people they are.

    Boris Johnson is a far lesser evil than the right of the Labour party, I could never vote Conservative but I would never ever ever vote for those lot on pain of death.
    A classic entryist position. Would rather have a Tory government than a Labour government. Which is why Labour are drifting away down the river with you and BJO fighting with Southam et al and not noticing there's a waterfall ahead.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    And that's both the opportunity and the problem for the Conservatives. Like Trump, Johnson is able to appeal to voters that others simply cannot reach. No question about that.

    The question is whether, like Trump, Johnson is too tawdry for high office, and whether he fails against someone whose main attribute is "harmless". And whether, when the time comes, the Conservatives are able to de-Johnson themselves with less pain than the de-Trumpification of the Republicans.
    I'm almost tempted to re-write my bet about Esther McVey being the next Conservative leader. Almost.
  • CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 421

    Glad we can agree you are a hypocrite

    As for the rest of that guff, completely untrue.

    Take a good look at the sequence of events this morning.

    You are the aggressive name caller.

    Stop playing the victim.
    Come on tone it down everyone....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134

    I joined Labour a few years ago full of enthusiasm and verve excited and hoping to get a Labour government.

    Prior to ever joining Labour they weren't worth voting for in an election but I preferred them to the Tories and hoped (a little) that they beat them.

    My current attitude of delighting in seeing the evil people running the Labour party fail is my experience of what absolutely awful vile people they are.

    Boris Johnson is a far lesser evil than the right of the Labour party, I could never vote Conservative but I would never ever ever vote for those lot on pain of death.
    Yes, but I have heard the other side say the same. Meanwhile the internecine fight goes on.

    Take my old patch of Ilford - the Corbynite MP got the seat in unpleasant circumstances and I bet a lot of the councillors I used to know there would be keen to get rid of him and have one of their own hold the seat. Meanwhile while all this is going on, the voters are taken for granted with both wings of the party simply assuming the seat will always be “theirs”. One day something might happen that changes that - as is clearly happening elsewhere - and by then it will be too late.

    When most of the campaigning energies and efforts are directed against others on your own side, something is wrong.

    Personally I wish the Labour Party would self destruct. But it’s taking too long.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364

    Guido has updated to say another activist has seen them on the streets with these boxes of brownies. If that is true, people are going to be interviewed under caution. They better hope the whole thing is a misunderstanding.
    The law seems very clear:

    A person shall be guilty of treating if he corruptly, by himself or by any other person, either before, during or after an election, directly or indirectly gives or provides, or pays wholly or in part the expense of giving or providing, any meat, drink, entertainment or provision to or for any person—

    for the purpose of corruptly influencing that person or any other person to vote or refrain from voting; or...


    The bloody box says "vote Labour" on it.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    edited May 2021

    I seem to remember pressing Cyclefree on this at GE2019, with regard to electoral law. She is only allowed to vote at her main residence.

    Cyclefree asserted she did not have a second home, as she lived in Cumbria and her husband lived in West Hampstead. So, the claim is that the Cyclefree family did not own a second home, but they owned two 'first homes'

    My understanding is that there are tax implications of 'second homes' so it is not just a matter of picking and choosing yourself that your 'second home' is another 'first home'.

    But, I don't mind Cyclefree's little ... shall we say ... sleight of hand. Really, I don't.

    What is certainly true is that if an MP was doing what Cyclefree was doing -- defining what is a 'second home' as a 'first home' -- we'd never here the end of it in one of her famous homilies against corruption.

    I shall retract my talons now.
    And I explained at the time and will do so again for the last time.

    My husband and I separated for a while because our son's very serious illness, an illness from which he nearly died and for which he was hospitalised in circumstances that do not bear thinking about let alone repeating to strangers pretty much destroyed our marriage and our family. I lived and worked in London and he in Cumbria. He had one home. I had another. I have never breached electoral law. Nor has my husband.

    Our decision to try and start a new life together again in Cumbria in our retirement is why things have changed.

    You really should not make bitchy and hurtful comments about people you don't know when you don't know the truth about their lives.

    Probably time for me to withdraw from this forum frankly. You can bitch away about others instead.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,395
    Sean_F said:

    If there were a by-election in Chingford or Kensington, or Wycombe, Labour would probably win it by a country mile. That article on the Blue Wall was interesting.
    Wycombe would be fascinating.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    https://twitter.com/KerronCross/status/1388220845064077319

    this is a very serious electoral offence. I thought from Guido it was just some home made brownies handed out. This is the very literal definition of 'treating'. People can go to jail for this..

    Apart from the obvious breaking of the law, wtaf, those are expensive, cost inefficient, and this is for West Yorkshire, which broke 2-1 to Lab in 2016 for the PCC elections, and where Lab were 6% ahead in 2019. Surely this race isn't anywhere near being live?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741
    edited May 2021
    Leon said:

    I firmly believe we are approaching a singularity of technology on a par with, or even greatly exceeding, the advent of industrialised electricity in the early 20th century. Possibly greater than the Industrial Revolution itself

    It is all colliding at once, Covid has accelerated things
    Remember the title of the 2016 book I referenced - it's all inevitable - the only thing Covid has done is accelerate remote working by 10-20 years in a 4 week period.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    Scott_xP said:

    'I think a puff of wind would blow the Prime Minister over...He's not half the Prime Minister even that David Cameron was'

    @AlexSalmond thinks Boris will be gone in two weeks! Watch the full exclusive interview with @MichaelLCrick: https://www.mailplus.co.uk/tv/the-michael-crick-report/68237/alex-salmond-exclusive-the-union-will-outlive-boris-hell-be-gone-in-two-weeks
    https://twitter.com/mailplus/status/1389546598313648129/video/1

    PB doesn't have this feature, but sometimes I wish it did:

    RemindMe! 2 weeks.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Jonathan said:

    @bigjohnowls, @TheJezziah & @RochdalePioneers, If I were a Tory I would be utterly delighted to read this thread.

    Whilst that is true, you would also in said circumstances, as a Tory, be delighted to keep SKS as Labour leader.

    From where i am standing I am a Socialist but would support a non Socialist leader if they can win Labour an election.

    I have only once in my lifetime not voted Labour (in the immediate aftermath of Iraq)

    I dont see SKS as that person who can win Labour an Election unfortunately, but would love to be proved wrong.

    I respect your opinion and that you sincerely believe he can.

    Neither @TheJezziah or @RochdalePioneers are voting Labour currently which is Labours issue methinks.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    eek said:

    I would look at that again - it seems to be a Labour candidate giving cookies to another Labour candidate.

    Not quite the story you are making it out to be - on first glance it looks way bad, and then you check the profiles and see that it's just a thank you for work done.
    I see the tories reported it to the Police
  • CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 421
    eek said:

    I would look at that again - it seems to be a Labour candidate giving cookies to another Labour candidate.

    Not quite the story you are making it out to be - on first glance it looks way bad, and then you check the profiles and see that it's just a thank you for work done.
    Yes, i saw that after posted, it only has legs if the second part that Guido added is true:
    "Local LibDem councillor Tom Gordon noted he’s now seen Brabin “out & about with boxes of brownies on them that say ‘Vote Labour’ on them”
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    eek said:

    I would look at that again - it seems to be a Labour candidate giving cookies to another Labour candidate.

    Not quite the story you are making it out to be - on first glance it looks way bad, and then you check the profiles and see that it's just a thank you for work done.
    No, it's more than that. From Guido:

    Local LibDem councillor Tom Gordon noted he’s now seen Brabin “out & about with boxes of brownies on them that say ‘Vote Labour’ on them”, asking the West Yorkshire Police whether it would be considered an electoral offence under treating laws.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,852
    Oh. Great.

    ‘Chinese military leaders believe that they will have the capabilities to force unification with Taiwan within a year—we need to act now. @WSJ, @AlastairGale’


    https://twitter.com/osmastro/status/1389550615089631236?s=21
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,395
    Quincel said:

    How can Labour be 2% behind nationally but 17% behind in Hartlepool? Either one poll is wrong, the other poll is wrong, or the Tories are losing ground much quicker in other areas than people realise.
    I expect Thursday to yield some very interesting results elsewhere in the country.

    No doubt each party will pour over them in detail, and look to talk up their successes.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,858
    DavidL said:

    Or alternatively, you could look at why these areas are being drained of capital and investment by London, look at what the inhibiting factors of growth are whether that is infrastructure, transport, specialist education, whatever, and think seriously about how you make these places that are attractive to invest and live in again (ie tidy up the mess and detritus of the past, make sure that that there is decent housing available, better schools etc).
    The Tories can no more level up these areas than Labour did - the same issues still exist albeit with both of them seeing them from opposite sides. The economy is seriously and increasingly unbalanced with resources and the ability to participate increasingly out of range no matter how many hours people work.

    Neither of the big parties can see beyond the next electoral cycle and - thanks to firstly crap management and communist unions and latterly the need to declare quarterly stock market profits - neither can industry.

    Unless we actually start planning for the long term things will just get worse. Sure, people will get thrown trinkets like a big telly and an iPhone. But their ability to actually progress just diminishes year after year. The Tories don't recognise the problem so have no chance of levelling up. Labour recognised it, decided it was too hard and instead just blamed their lack of progress on the Tories.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,793
    IanB2 said:

    Yes, but I have heard the other side say the same. Meanwhile the internecine fight goes on.

    Take my old patch of Ilford - the Corbynite MP got the seat in unpleasant circumstances and I bet a lot of the councillors I used to know there would be keen to get rid of him and have one of their own hold the seat. Meanwhile while all this is going on, the voters are taken for granted with both wings of the party simply assuming the seat will always be “theirs”. One day something might happen that changes that - as is clearly happening elsewhere - and by then it will be too late.

    When most of the campaigning energies and efforts are directed against others on your own side, something is wrong.

    Personally I wish the Labour Party would self destruct. But it’s taking too long.
    The best way to get the Labour Party to self destruct would be PR. It would also cause the party formally known as Conservative to do the same. For both those reasons PR will not happen.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134

    I seem to remember pressing Cyclefree on this at GE2019, with regard to electoral law. She is only allowed to vote at her main residence.

    Cyclefree asserted she did not have a second home, as she lived in Cumbria and her husband lived in West Hampstead. So, the claim is that the Cyclefree family did not own a second home, but they owned two 'first homes'

    My understanding is that there are tax implications of 'second homes' so it is not just a matter of picking and choosing yourself that your 'second home' is another 'first home'.

    But, I don't mind Cyclefree's little ... shall we say ... sleight of hand. Really, I don't.

    What is certainly true is that if an MP was doing what Cyclefree was doing -- defining what is a 'second home' as a 'first home' -- we'd never here the end of it in one of her famous homilies against corruption.

    I shall retract my talons now.
    Our own Isle of Wight MP gets a lot of muttering on the basis people wonder whether he really has a main home here.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    RobD said:

    Well it did start with a poll saying the Tories were 17 points up in Hartlepool.

    A classic entryist position. Would rather have a Tory government than a Labour government. Which is why Labour are drifting away down the river with you and BJO fighting with Southam et al and not noticing there's a waterfall ahead.
    The position I have adopted is the classic Blairite position, you should learn from your enemies and I learned from you and the terrible people you support.

    The only difference is I hope a Labour who will do nothing to help normal people loses because it won't help normal people but can get back to something that will.

    The Blairite POV is purely inspired by wealthy old white men who can't get over the fact it isn't the 90's anymore and are prepared to destroy any hope of better government to rediscover their youth (through Blairite politics)
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    DavidL said:

    This is seriously distorted thinking, bordering on disturbed.

    SKS is not evil, he is well meaning but boring with few original ideas. Dodds is not evil, she is bright and technically literate but even duller than her boss. Evil was the last regime with its blatant anti-Semitism, its hatred for their own country and the willful blindness that this led to supporting anyone else on the planet that hated us no matter how appalling they were. Labour may not win under SKS but it is no longer a national disgrace and that is progress of a sort.
    Well said.
  • CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 421
    Chameleon said:

    Apart from the obvious breaking of the law, wtaf, those are expensive, cost inefficient, and this is for West Yorkshire, which broke 2-1 to Lab in 2016 for the PCC elections, and where Lab were 6% ahead in 2019. Surely this race isn't anywhere near being live?
    Yes, it must just be a small batch for activists. I dont believe any candidate with an agent would make such a foolish mistake.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,395

    Labour’s woes boil down to the fact that their traditional heartlands are big fans of Brexit. They think Brexit will bring back the glory days. They are willing to give the Tories a try, ‘cos Brexit.

    So if Brexit is a success the Red Wall will continue to crumble and Labour are fucked. If Brexit is shit, and there’s no discernible improvement in these areas, then the Tories won’t be trusted again for a long time.

    That’s it. Everything else is froth.

    The Tories need to get money flowing to the left behind areas. I’m sceptical that will happen. Time will tell.

    It's a very good warning. Trump tried this too, and many rebounded to Biden when he didn't deliver.

    So, the Tories must deliver.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134

    Speaking as a Tory, I'd vote for Labour before I voted Green.

    They are utter luddite reductionist communitarian fundamentalists.
    There’s no reason to believe the party wouldn’t follow the same path toward more moderate respectability, if our political system offered it the same chance to grow that the German Greens, who started with a similar mindset, have had.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,858
    Jonathan said:

    @bigjohnowls, @TheJezziah & @RochdalePioneers, If I were a Tory I would be utterly delighted to read this thread.

    I don't think my opinions on Labour matter to the Tories - I left the party and have now moved north of the wall to a place almost completely devoid of Labour. Still see the Tories as the principle opponents to defeat though, with a big LD push to try and double our list seat representation in the NE taking a seat off the Tories.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,395
    Leon said:

    Or, the Tories aren’t losing ground when it comes to actual elections

    Polls are an expression of theoretical interest. A Tinder swipe. Elections, by contrast, are actual sex
    If they were we wouldn't have a problem with turnout.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Cyclefree said:

    And I explained at the time and will do so again for the last time.

    My husband and I separated for a while because our son's very serious illness, an illness from which he nearly died and for which he was hospitalised in circumstances that do not bear thinking about let alone repeating to strangers pretty much destroyed our marriage and our family. I lived and worked in London and he in Cumbria. He had one home. I had another. I have never breached electoral law. Nor has my husband.

    Our decision to try and start a new life together again in Cumbria in our retirement is why things have changed.

    You really should not make bitchy and hurtful comments about people you don't know when you don't know the truth about their lives.

    Probably time for me to withdraw from this forum frankly. You can bitch away about others instead.
    I am of course sorry to hear all this.

    My only point is that 'a second home' is something that is formally defined by the tax authorities. You have to declare your family's main residence.

    Because there are tax implications.

    And there are also implications with regard to electoral law (which certainly in Wales are routinely flouted).

    I wish your family all the best.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Quincel said:

    Not the opposition, everyone but the PM. Rishi Sunak joined Keir Starmer in the 40s, for example. And Ed Davey...well...

    I don't this reflects at all on Lab/Con. It's just the nature of opposition.


    I think that’s an impressively high set of numbers for Hancock, Patel, Starmer and Sinai. Suspect they are much higher than baseline recognition
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    edited May 2021
    IanB2 said:

    There’s no reason to believe the party wouldn’t follow the same path toward more moderate respectability, if our political system offered it the same chance to grow that the German Greens, who started with a similar mindset, have had.
    Late enough in the thread to trigger Godwin's Law? Small parties don't always moderate themselves when they get bigger.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    Scott_xP said:
    Johnson is an utter idiot on this front. He must be guaranteed zillions of pounds after he has finished as PM. Just get a line of credit from a bank.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,195

    The Tories can no more level up these areas than Labour did - the same issues still exist albeit with both of them seeing them from opposite sides. The economy is seriously and increasingly unbalanced with resources and the ability to participate increasingly out of range no matter how many hours people work.

    Neither of the big parties can see beyond the next electoral cycle and - thanks to firstly crap management and communist unions and latterly the need to declare quarterly stock market profits - neither can industry.

    Unless we actually start planning for the long term things will just get worse. Sure, people will get thrown trinkets like a big telly and an iPhone. But their ability to actually progress just diminishes year after year. The Tories don't recognise the problem so have no chance of levelling up. Labour recognised it, decided it was too hard and instead just blamed their lack of progress on the Tories.
    I am not pretending for a moment that it is easy but the list I have produced is not rocket science. London is a stunning success whose continued progress is essential for UK plc but we do need to recognise that some of that progress comes at the cost of other regions including Scotland and we need to think constructively about what we can do about that. Education, transport/connectivity and housing are basic steps to give these communities a chance. Its not much to ask.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741
    RobD said:

    No, it's more than that. From Guido:

    Local LibDem councillor Tom Gordon noted he’s now seen Brabin “out & about with boxes of brownies on them that say ‘Vote Labour’ on them”, asking the West Yorkshire Police whether it would be considered an electoral offence under treating laws.
    Asking West Yorkshire Police over whom she will be the boss come Friday?

    and from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treating_(law)#:~:text=Treating occurs when an election,one year imprisonment or both.

    An accusation of treating was seen in the 2015 United Kingdom general election where the UK Independence Party candidate for Southampton Itchen, Kim Rose was accused of treating for giving out sausage rolls at a community event;[8] however, Hampshire Constabulary said they would take no action over the allegation.[9]

    So really nothing to see here....
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    RobD said:

    Well it did start with a poll saying the Tories were 17 points up in Hartlepool.
    Indeed and I ask PBers to look back to what I posted, which apparently set one poster in particular off

    Hartlepool 2015
    Iain Wright Lab 14,076 35.6 -6.9
    Philip Broughton UKIP11,052 28.0 21.0
    Richard Royal Con 8,256 20.9 -7.2

    Hartlepool 2017
    Mike Hill Lab 21,969 52.5 16.9
    Carl Jackson Con14,319 34.2 13.3
    P Broughton UKIP4,801 11.5 -16.5

    Hartlepool 2019
    Mike Hill Lab 15,464 37.7 -14.8
    S Houghton Con 11,869 28.9 -5.3
    Richard Tice BXP 10,603 25.8 25.8

    Hartlepool 2021 CON GAIN first time not Labour since 1959

    SKS fans please explain how SKS has managed this
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,793
    DavidL said:

    This is seriously distorted thinking, bordering on disturbed.

    SKS is not evil, he is well meaning but boring with few original ideas. Dodds is not evil, she is bright and technically literate but even duller than her boss. Evil was the last regime with its blatant anti-Semitism, its hatred for their own country and the willful blindness that this led to supporting anyone else on the planet that hated us no matter how appalling they were. Labour may not win under SKS but it is no longer a national disgrace and that is progress of a sort.
    There are few political figures that I would describe as "scum" , but Corbyn (and his deluded loyal supporters) definitely fall into that category along with Alex Salmond and Nick Griffin. Repulsive characters. People that blindly follow such people need psychological help.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,858
    AlistairM said:

    Just a comment on lockdown, opening up and mental health. I have generally been very supportive of lockdowns and think it was essential on previous occasions.

    I am now of the view that we are causing more harm than good. 2/3rds of the population has had at least one vaccine dose. Cases of Covid are where they were last Summer and even deaths are at a low level. I know we are no longer in a true lockdown but there are still impacts. I believe now that more deaths are probably being caused as a result of lockdown than are being saved.

    I know within the last week of two suicides (neither I knew closely) - one in their early 40s, the other in their 20s. Whilst no one can say if it wouldn't have happened without lockdowns, it certainly hasn't helped. Both of them had plenty of life to live. We have to give other people in similar situations hope and opportunity. Young people particularly have given up so much to protect the older generations. It is time we started protecting their mental health.

    I was debating this with DavidL yesterday - for me the policy of lockdown in England came too late was lifted far too early with the inevitable big pile of bodies. In January Teesside felt like an absolute plague-zone, with very few trips outside as pox ripped its way through my area in alarming numbers.

    That was then, this is now. numbers are rapidly dropping and unlike last time we have a significant proportion of the population vaccinated. There is still a significant risk in reimporting new strains and in transmission through the under 40s where few have been jabbed. But the arguments for lockdowns are fading fast.

    What I doubt we are about to see the back of are restrictions on foreign travel and mask-wearing. The former will have restrictions either into the country people want to go to or on the way home - more countries will be amber or red than are green. And the latter? I doubt that all barring a hardcore of libertarians will burn their masks on day 1 of them no longer being mandatory.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Scott_xP said:

    'I think a puff of wind would blow the Prime Minister over...He's not half the Prime Minister even that David Cameron was'

    @AlexSalmond thinks Boris will be gone in two weeks! Watch the full exclusive interview with @MichaelLCrick: https://www.mailplus.co.uk/tv/the-michael-crick-report/68237/alex-salmond-exclusive-the-union-will-outlive-boris-hell-be-gone-in-two-weeks
    https://twitter.com/mailplus/status/1389546598313648129/video/1

    Something tells me that Alex Salmond is more likely to be "gone" in two weeks than Boris.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    eek said:

    Asking West Yorkshire Police over whom she will be the boss come Friday?

    and from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treating_(law)#:~:text=Treating occurs when an election,one year imprisonment or both.

    An accusation of treating was seen in the 2015 United Kingdom general election where the UK Independence Party candidate for Southampton Itchen, Kim Rose was accused of treating for giving out sausage rolls at a community event;[8] however, Hampshire Constabulary said they would take no action over the allegation.[9]

    So really nothing to see here....
    The fact that she will be PCC is irrelevant surely, or does that make her immune from this law?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,852
    Cyclefree said:

    And I explained at the time and will do so again for the last time.

    My husband and I separated for a while because our son's very serious illness, an illness from which he nearly died and for which he was hospitalised in circumstances that do not bear thinking about let alone repeating to strangers pretty much destroyed our marriage and our family. I lived and worked in London and he in Cumbria. He had one home. I had another. I have never breached electoral law. Nor has my husband.

    Our decision to try and start a new life together again in Cumbria in our retirement is why things have changed.

    You really should not make bitchy and hurtful comments about people you don't know when you don't know the truth about their lives.

    Probably time for me to withdraw from this forum frankly. You can bitch away about others instead.
    Calm down. You’re a highly valued and much respected citizen of the PB village! I merely queried, quite innocently, where you really lived - and you over-reacted. Stay. Your contributions are excellent (especially on civil liberties and the madder elements of Wokery)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Chameleon said:

    Apart from the obvious breaking of the law, wtaf, those are expensive, cost inefficient, and this is for West Yorkshire, which broke 2-1 to Lab in 2016 for the PCC elections, and where Lab were 6% ahead in 2019. Surely this race isn't anywhere near being live?
    If she's guilty of breaking election law on this then could that trigger a by-election before long if she does win?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,825
    edited May 2021

    In GE2015 under Milliband

    Lab = 14,076
    Cons + UKIP 8,256 + 11,052 = 19,308

    Under your logic (and that of other centrists) the true GE15 result was a Con win.

    Ge2017 under Corbyn

    Lab = 21,969
    Cons + UKIP 14,319 + 4,801 = 19,120

    Unelectable Corbyn smashed the Tories + right of Tory party combined in his first election in Hartlepool, surely electable Starmer can do even better than that?

    Or is it that is impossible for Starmer to match Corbyn because Corbyn is an electoral savant (ONLY by the standards of comparing to other recent Labour leaders) and Starmer is actually the unelectable one?

    Makes you think about all those idiots claiming any other Labour leader would be 20 points ahead
    I'm not a centrist! Jeez, Jezz. Talk about the insults flying. I'm on the left. But the Cons will win Hartlepool for the reasons I explained. It's the same analysis I did on the day the by-election was called. It's untainted by bias, done to steer my betting and earn punditry kudos points.

    And bias is everywhere when it comes to what this means for Starmer. Both left and right of Labour are choked with it and are incapable of analyzing the result correctly. One side will (wrongly) say it's proof that Starmer is a stone cold loser. The other side will (wrongly) claim it means nothing other than he needs more time to undo the damage caused by Corbyn.

    In fact it has little to do with who the leader is. Neither btw was the GE19 disaster about Corbyn and being too leftist. GE17 showed we can do well from the left and with a left wing leader. The appeal of Brexit and "Boris" in the places that mattered electorally was the key to the Con landslide. That election was unwinnable. It was superbly set up - the People vs Parliament dynamic - by Johnson and Cummings and "Get Brexit Done" (in that context and climate) was unstoppable. They reran the eu Ref and united the Leave vote. It was genius and don't let anybody tell you otherwise.

    As for Starmer, I'm neither sold on him (I voted for Nandy) nor writing him off. This has been an exceptional period and we're about to move out if it. Let's see how things look in a year. If we're still doing badly then, ok, time to worry and maybe make a change.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Chameleon said:

    Apart from the obvious breaking of the law, wtaf, those are expensive, cost inefficient, and this is for West Yorkshire, which broke 2-1 to Lab in 2016 for the PCC elections, and where Lab were 6% ahead in 2019. Surely this race isn't anywhere near being live?
    Look North was saying a couple of days ago it was close.

    I think LAB should get it
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,858
    RobD said:

    The law seems very clear:

    A person shall be guilty of treating if he corruptly, by himself or by any other person, either before, during or after an election, directly or indirectly gives or provides, or pays wholly or in part the expense of giving or providing, any meat, drink, entertainment or provision to or for any person—

    for the purpose of corruptly influencing that person or any other person to vote or refrain from voting; or...


    The bloody box says "vote Labour" on it.
    Wowsers. Have they done this just as a gift to an activist? Otherwise not only is it illegal, they look a wee bit expensive so I'd love to see their expenses return afterwards.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    DavidL said:

    This is seriously distorted thinking, bordering on disturbed.

    SKS is not evil, he is well meaning but boring with few original ideas. Dodds is not evil, she is bright and technically literate but even duller than her boss. Evil was the last regime with its blatant anti-Semitism, its hatred for their own country and the willful blindness that this led to supporting anyone else on the planet that hated us no matter how appalling they were. Labour may not win under SKS but it is no longer a national disgrace and that is progress of a sort.
    Starmer isn't releasing the Forde report because kicking out the racists would kill his support in the party.

    I know to some here racism is only a failure to support the brutal oocupation of Palestine rather than actual racism against minorities but there is a reason Labour are losing votes among minorities and younger people (two groups most against racism)

    We have swapped an anti racist leader for a racist one.

    I realise it is the kind of racism many rich white people who temporarily pretended to care about racism don't actually care about so it doesn't matter.

    In fact many wealthy older white people will be delighted Labour now has a racist leader, even if it means the Conservatives have no opposition and are losing votes and popularity as a result.

    Don't be too happy about it though, in the medium to long term the racists who like Starmer will be mostly dead whilst the anti racists who supported Corbyn will still be alive and kicking.

    So only matter of time before Labour goes back to (greater) electability and anti racism to the dismay of many racists :)
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741
    RobD said:

    The fact that she will be PCC is irrelevant surely, or does that make her immune from this law?
    I was actually thinking more of the second bit - past examples haven't been prosecuted and it feels like a very desperate tactic.

    Then again Guido will go with any story no matter how minor as he needs to file X stories a day.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,688
    RobD said:

    The fact that she will be PCC is irrelevant surely, or does that make her immune from this law?
    Think of it as just being like Boris Johnson being the final arbiter on if Boris Johnson broke the ministerial code.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    eek said:

    Asking West Yorkshire Police over whom she will be the boss come Friday?

    and from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treating_(law)#:~:text=Treating occurs when an election,one year imprisonment or both.

    An accusation of treating was seen in the 2015 United Kingdom general election where the UK Independence Party candidate for Southampton Itchen, Kim Rose was accused of treating for giving out sausage rolls at a community event;[8] however, Hampshire Constabulary said they would take no action over the allegation.[9]

    So really nothing to see here....
    Looking closely, I don't think that example is particularly relevant. That was catering for a party event. Giving out freebies while out canvassing is completely different.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    edited May 2021
    eek said:

    I would look at that again - it seems to be a Labour candidate giving cookies to another Labour candidate.

    Not quite the story you are making it out to be - on first glance it looks way bad, and then you check the profiles and see that it's just a thank you for work done.
    That's good, because as silly as it seems a box of treats with party branding exhorting people to vote for said party looks bad.

    But the police dont give a crap about that level of thing.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    eek said:

    I was actually thinking more of the second bit - past examples haven't been prosecuted and it feels like a very desperate tactic.

    Then again Guido will go with any story no matter how minor as he needs to file X stories a day.
    You missed the fact that Lutfur Rahman was convicted on this offence then?

    Giving away what looks like professionally made boxes of treats with Vote Labour literally printed on them looks rather worse than simply sausage rolls.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    edited May 2021

    Think of it as just being like Boris Johnson being the final arbiter on if Boris Johnson broke the ministerial code.
    Can't think of a better judge. He wouldn't even have to spend any time questioning anyone as he'd know all the details anyway. Marvellously efficient.

    Edit: who am I kidding, he'd have definitely forgotten.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    There are few political figures that I would describe as "scum" , but Corbyn (and his deluded loyal supporters) definitely fall into that category along with Alex Salmond and Nick Griffin. Repulsive characters. People that blindly follow such people need psychological help.
    I imagine Corbyn hung around with too many Black people and poor people for an upstanding citizen like yourself.

    Starmer who keeps his distance from such uncouth elements probably right up your street.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Unpopular said:

    Morning!
    Thought I would give this a go after about a decade of lurking. Incidentally, it started when a teacher of mine suggested that checking the betting markets is a better predicter of election results than the polls. My feeling is the assertion has taken some hammering since then and I suspect the market has moved against it (no doubt very profitably).

    Off Topic, I was really interested in a comment from a previous thread yesterday that linked to a thread from Ciaran Martin on the constitutionality of the IndyRef and what all this means for the future of the Union. Essentially, there's nothing left to devolve and Federalism means either; very unequal federal system, or the clawing of powers back from Holyrood and the dissolution of England as a political entity. Martin's point about federalism and devolution not being one and the same was very shrewd. My suggestion? Enter the third chamber!

    Simply add a House of Nations to Parliament, 100 seats, elected by PR and equally distributed among the Nations. Any legislation requires majorities of 2/4 delegations to pass. So, 13 Seats in England, 13 seats in Wales would see a bill go through (having passed the representatives in the Commons in a majority, indicating broad support). This would limit nationalist parties from blocking, while giving equal representation to the Nations.

    Now, I don't know if constitutional fanfiction is something we do here but I'm pretty proud of the idea!

    Why should Wales & Scotland with about 10% of the population get a veto?

    I’m a fan of having over-representation for the regions in the upper house but they shouldn’t get an extra lock
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Look North was saying a couple of days ago it was close.

    I think LAB should get it
    If Labour are 3rd in Scotland, down in Wales, lose Hartlepool, WMids, Teeside, and WYorks then it will be an awful night for Starmer. If you'd have told someone in 2014 that those last 4 were probable results then they'd have looked at you veyr funny indeed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    eek said:

    I was actually thinking more of the second bit - past examples haven't been prosecuted and it feels like a very desperate tactic.

    Then again Guido will go with any story no matter how minor as he needs to file X stories a day.
    He also adores even minor scandal - itll even get him on to Tory stories.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,852

    Starmer isn't releasing the Forde report because kicking out the racists would kill his support in the party.

    I know to some here racism is only a failure to support the brutal oocupation of Palestine rather than actual racism against minorities but there is a reason Labour are losing votes among minorities and younger people (two groups most against racism)

    We have swapped an anti racist leader for a racist one.

    I realise it is the kind of racism many rich white people who temporarily pretended to care about racism don't actually care about so it doesn't matter.

    In fact many wealthy older white people will be delighted Labour now has a racist leader, even if it means the Conservatives have no opposition and are losing votes and popularity as a result.

    Don't be too happy about it though, in the medium to long term the racists who like Starmer will be mostly dead whilst the anti racists who supported Corbyn will still be alive and kicking.

    So only matter of time before Labour goes back to (greater) electability and anti racism to the dismay of many racists :)
    I literally don’t understand this. In what way is Starmer ‘racist’?!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Lutfur Rahman's election was declared nul and void after an allegation of Treating was upheld (along with other allegations): https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-32428648

    Seems like rather ominous precedence for Brabin. Might the election need to be re-run if she is guilty of this and wins?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,858


    The position I have adopted is the classic Blairite position, you should learn from your enemies and I learned from you and the terrible people you support.

    The only difference is I hope a Labour who will do nothing to help normal people loses because it won't help normal people but can get back to something that will.

    The Blairite POV is purely inspired by wealthy old white men who can't get over the fact it isn't the 90's anymore and are prepared to destroy any hope of better government to rediscover their youth (through Blairite politics)

    For clarity (a) I was a Brownite not a Blairite, and (b) having left the party my views on Blair / Brown or whoever can hardly be described as being part of any Labour faction.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,031
    I understand the conservatives are at an 83% chance of winning Hartlepool
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364

    I imagine Corbyn hung around with too many Black people and poor people for an upstanding citizen like yourself.

    Starmer who keeps his distance from such uncouth elements probably right up your street.
    What?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    I know to some here racism is only a failure to support the brutal oocupation of Palestine
    You might be more persuasive with the rest of the argument if you hadn't started with this dog whistle.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,793

    Starmer isn't releasing the Forde report because kicking out the racists would kill his support in the party.

    I know to some here racism is only a failure to support the brutal oocupation of Palestine rather than actual racism against minorities but there is a reason Labour are losing votes among minorities and younger people (two groups most against racism)

    We have swapped an anti racist leader for a racist one.

    I realise it is the kind of racism many rich white people who temporarily pretended to care about racism don't actually care about so it doesn't matter.

    In fact many wealthy older white people will be delighted Labour now has a racist leader, even if it means the Conservatives have no opposition and are losing votes and popularity as a result.

    Don't be too happy about it though, in the medium to long term the racists who like Starmer will be mostly dead whilst the anti racists who supported Corbyn will still be alive and kicking.

    So only matter of time before Labour goes back to (greater) electability and anti racism to the dismay of many racists :)
    You are a deluded nutter. If it wasn't for the fact that you are supporting a genuine anti-Semite cnut I would think you quite worth laughing at for your incomprehensible stupidity, but the fact that you are supporting, and are a clear apologist for said lying anti-semite I rather wish you would go back to the sewer from which you came. Anti-Semites and their apologists such as yourself are nothing short of scum.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,195

    Starmer isn't releasing the Forde report because kicking out the racists would kill his support in the party.

    I know to some here racism is only a failure to support the brutal oocupation of Palestine rather than actual racism against minorities but there is a reason Labour are losing votes among minorities and younger people (two groups most against racism)

    We have swapped an anti racist leader for a racist one.

    I realise it is the kind of racism many rich white people who temporarily pretended to care about racism don't actually care about so it doesn't matter.

    In fact many wealthy older white people will be delighted Labour now has a racist leader, even if it means the Conservatives have no opposition and are losing votes and popularity as a result.

    Don't be too happy about it though, in the medium to long term the racists who like Starmer will be mostly dead whilst the anti racists who supported Corbyn will still be alive and kicking.

    So only matter of time before Labour goes back to (greater) electability and anti racism to the dismay of many racists :)
    I blame George Orwell in part. People read novels like 1984 and Animal Farm and took them as instruction manuals rather than a warning. A better illustration of the concept of doublethink would be hard to conceive of.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,950

    I understand the conservatives are at an 83% chance of winning Hartlepool

    I suggested they ought to be around 70% a few days ago. This was derided.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    kinabalu said:

    I'm not a centrist! Jeez, Jezz. Talk about the insults flying. I'm on the left. But the Cons will win Hartlepool for the reasons I explained. It's the same analysis I did on the day the by-election was called. It's untainted by bias, done to steer my betting and earn punditry kudos points.

    And bias is everywhere when it comes to what this means for Starmer. Both left and right of Labour are choked with it and are thus incapable of analyzing the loss correctly. One side will (wrongly) say it's proof that Starmer is a stone cold loser. The other side will (wrongly) claim it means nothing other than he needs more time to undo the damage caused by Corbyn.

    In fact it's not much to do with who the leader is. Neither btw was the GE19 disaster about Corbyn and being too leftist. GE17 showed we can do well from the left and with a left wing leader. The appeal of Brexit and "Boris" in the places that mattered electorally was the key to the Con landslide. That election was unwinnable. It was superbly set up - the People vs Parliament dynamic - by Johnson and Cummings and "Get Brexit Done" (in that context and climate) was unstoppable. They reran the eu Ref and united the Leave vote. It was genius and don't let anybody tell you otherwise.

    As for Starmer, I'm neither sold on him (I voted for Nandy) nor writing him off. This has been an exceptional period and we're about to move out if it. Let's see how things look in a year. If we're still doing badly then, ok, time to worry and maybe make a change.
    I did think about including a disclaimer that I was using your post to argue a point I wanted to make against centrists rather than you particulalry... I probably should have!

    Also Corbyn's opponents had no time for discussing the real issues beyond using absolutely everything as a stick to attack their factional enemies with. It is obviously stupid to run things like this but as with football refereeing the most important thing (IMO) is consistency.

    I intend to lunge in on the Blairites with leg breaking two footed studs up tackles at every opportunity without receiving a card, as they didn't either, then it is fair for everyone.

    Although I apologise for using you as a proxy to get at them.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    dixiedean said:

    I suggested they ought to be around 70% a few days ago. This was derided.
    Now you see why, you were wrong ;)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134
    RobD said:

    Late enough in the thread to trigger Godwin's Law? Small parties don't always moderate themselves when they get bigger.
    Prior to achieving power, there is still a historical argument.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,688
    edited May 2021

    Lutfur Rahman's election was declared nul and void after an allegation of Treating was upheld (along with other allegations): https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-32428648

    Seems like rather ominous precedence for Brabin. Might the election need to be re-run if she is guilty of this and wins?

    It really isn't.

    This is the sausage roll precedent.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,356
    edited May 2021
    Leon said:


    +++++

    Which is?

    It is theoretically possible - and, to me, delightful - that Lenin, Stalin and Hitler all drank in the Fitzroy Tavern on Charlotte St, at the same time. Possibly with a young Aleister Crowley

    Bet none of the feckers got their round in
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    Leon said:

    I literally don’t understand this. In what way is Starmer ‘racist’?!
    Supports the brutal occupation of Palestine apparently. Not that this is about obsessive fixation on Israel.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    IanB2 said:

    Prior to achieving power, there is still a historical argument.
    It was definitely tongue-in-cheek. I agree with the point that parties have to moderate themselves to appeal to more voters. More so in systems like FPTP, perhaps, given how punishing it is for smaller parties.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,688
    edited May 2021
    Rozzers eh?

    A murder-accused PC Tasered an ex-footballer for six times longer than is standard before kicking him twice in the head, a court heard.

    PC Benjamin Monk is charged with the murder of Dalian Atkinson during an altercation in Shropshire, in 2016.

    He appeared at Birmingham Crown Court for the first day of his trial with co-accused PC Mary Ellen Bettley-Smith, who is charged with assault.

    The former Aston Villa star died after he was Tasered for 33 seconds....

    ...While he was unresponsive, the court heard the police officers "set about him".

    Mr Monk kicked him in the head with such force imprints of his boot laces were left in two locations on Mr Atkinson's forehead while Ms Bettley-Smith used her baton to strike him "a number of times" while he lay still in the road, the court was told.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-56979521
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,266
    Leon said:

    I literally don’t understand this. In what way is Starmer ‘racist’?!
    You got a bit behind with your copies of the Socialist Worker, Leon? :wink:
    https://socialistworker.co.uk/art/51076/Starmers+no+anti+racist
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364

    It really isn't.

    This is the sausage roll precedent.
    I don't see how they are related. That was catering for a party event.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    Lutfur Rahman's election was declared nul and void after an allegation of Treating was upheld (along with other allegations): https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-32428648

    Seems like rather ominous precedence for Brabin. Might the election need to be re-run if she is guilty of this and wins?

    Rahman had to do a lot more to get his election overturned than just treat, if memory serves. And the local parties left it to individuals to do it didn't they?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938

    Bet none of the feckers got their round in
    This reminds me of the time in 1913 when HItler, Stalin, Trotsky and Freud were all in Vienna.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121
    edited May 2021
    Chameleon said:

    If Labour are 3rd in Scotland, down in Wales, lose Hartlepool, WMids, Teeside, and WYorks then it will be an awful night for Starmer. If you'd have told someone in 2014 that those last 4 were probable results then they'd have looked at you veyr funny indeed.
    Labour should still win the London Mayoralty and Assembly comfortably and make gains in the county council elections where they were 11% behind the Tories in 2017.

    Starmer is lucky Corbyn did so badly the last time the county council seats were elected so Labour can only go up there
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,793

    I imagine Corbyn hung around with too many Black people and poor people for an upstanding citizen like yourself.

    Starmer who keeps his distance from such uncouth elements probably right up your street.
    For one thing you sad deluded little man I do not find Starmer to be in any way "up my street" , except he is clearly not an anti-Semite. If your monumentally stupid remark about black people was intended to suggest that I am a racist I would ask that you step out from the protection your rather childish nom de plume, and let us take it from there. I have reported your remark to the moderator and I very much hope it gets you a ban.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    You are a deluded nutter. If it wasn't for the fact that you are supporting a genuine anti-Semite cnut I would think you quite worth laughing at for your incomprehensible stupidity, but the fact that you are supporting, and are a clear apologist for said lying anti-semite I rather wish you would go back to the sewer from which you came. Anti-Semites and their apologists such as yourself are nothing short of scum.
    You can get as upset as you want about it but the racist base of Starmer is much older than Corbyns base so Labour won't be a racist party for long, it will belong to the current young and minorities who are racists and you view as sewer dwellers.

    Best part is I'm young and healthy enough to be around to probably see it happen, if it is any nconsolation all you angry old guys who hate Corbyn/Black people/ Muslims will be mostly gone then so you won't have to worry about it, the country can stay racist until your generation loses its voting power.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741
    RobD said:

    I don't see how they are related. That was catering for a party event.
    Nope it was a community event.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    Selebian said:

    You got a bit behind with your copies of the Socialist Worker, Leon? :wink:
    https://socialistworker.co.uk/art/51076/Starmers+no+anti+racist
    Found a copy (or something much like it) on a train once.

    Eye opening stuff, to be sure.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,266

    I understand the conservatives are at an 83% chance of winning Hartlepool

    I both understand and fail to understand, my brain is still struggling a bit with the concept, to be honest. As perhaps are some in the constituency.

    "My brain is saying 'lets go', but my heart is saying 'no'", to misquote a popular songstress...
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    edited May 2021
    kinabalu said:

    Thanks. Yes, shades of that tension between state and national polling we saw with WH20.

    Usually I favour the national but here - with Hartlepool - I think we have a genuine special case. The "true" GE19 result (adjusted for BXP) was a Con win. I'm assessing against that and factoring in (i) we are coming early out of the pandemic due to a vaccine success associated with the government, (ii) a government which also delivered the promised Good Hard Leave so desired by the denizens of this seat, (iii) people have had little time for Labour and Starmer with Covid being such a blanket story, and (iv) Johnson has particular appeal to the WWC demographic being as he's a "bit of a character" and "not like normal politicians".

    They are the tea leaves and the resulting brew tastes bitter and of only one thing. Cons win this by-election.
    Labour aren't 2 points behind nationally. Such evidence that there is points to being 5-6 points behind if it were a GE vote. All the wildly varying polls average out and are consistent with Tories 42 Lab 36 (within a point or so each way).

    Single elections such as Hartlepool lead to distorted voting patterns because of the concentrated focus and the Tories vote isn't split this time. The 17 point gap in a small poll is subject to a 5 pt margin of error either way. All boringly consistent.

    If the Brexit party vote splits well in favour of the Tories they will win; if not they probably won't. I think Labour will squeak home, but the evidence, such as it is, for that is getting weaker.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    eek said:

    Nope it was a community event.
    Described as a "party event":

    A UKIP parliamentary candidate is to be questioned over allegations he tried to influence voters by giving away sausage rolls at a party event featuring snooker star Jimmy White.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-hampshire-32234567
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,858
    DavidL said:

    I am not pretending for a moment that it is easy but the list I have produced is not rocket science. London is a stunning success whose continued progress is essential for UK plc but we do need to recognise that some of that progress comes at the cost of other regions including Scotland and we need to think constructively about what we can do about that. Education, transport/connectivity and housing are basic steps to give these communities a chance. Its not much to ask.
    No it isn't and I agree with your diagnosis! Its just this funny idea that the Tories seem to think they are the party to deliver it. And its all made worse by Brexit. It doesn't matter that punters didn't recognise the EU regional development money - it did exist. Now that cash has gone and the Tories are not going to replace it. As an example - Cornwall needs £700m across 10 years just to replace the EU money and is being offered an initial £1.8m https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-55279468
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    edited May 2021
    Leon said:

    I literally don’t understand this. In what way is Starmer ‘racist’?!
    He is racist because those who decide who is racist have so decided. Who are you to question them? And why do you think you are owed an explanation or proof?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited May 2021

    You can get as upset as you want about it but the racist base of Starmer is much older than Corbyns base so Labour won't be a racist party for long, it will belong to the current young and minorities who are racists and you view as sewer dwellers.

    Best part is I'm young and healthy enough to be around to probably see it happen, if it is any nconsolation all you angry old guys who hate Corbyn/Black people/ Muslims will be mostly gone then so you won't have to worry about it, the country can stay racist until your generation loses its voting power.
    I think Labour can only win if Corbynites and Blairites come to some accommodation, or, as others have mentioned, split in two and rejoin in elections under a coalition stretching across to the Greens and Liberal Democrats too.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    DavidL said:

    I blame George Orwell in part. People read novels like 1984 and Animal Farm and took them as instruction manuals rather than a warning. A better illustration of the concept of doublethink would be hard to conceive of.
    Explain the logic of Labour losing in the groups most opposed to racism (young and minorities)

    If the centrists and right wing fairly tale about Corbyn being racist and Starmer being anti racist were true the opposite would happen.

    Starmer seems most popular (comparatively to Corbyn) among groups most in favour of racism (older white people) the same groups were Corbyn is least popular.

    I know this might be hard to hear but is it possible it is you that is wrong rather than the children Mr Skinner?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741
    edited May 2021

    It really isn't.

    This is the sausage roll precedent.
    It's also not going to matter - given that I suspect the number of Brownies are way less than 500 and she is going to win be 1000s...
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,793

    You can get as upset as you want about it but the racist base of Starmer is much older than Corbyns base so Labour won't be a racist party for long, it will belong to the current young and minorities who are racists and you view as sewer dwellers.

    Best part is I'm young and healthy enough to be around to probably see it happen, if it is any nconsolation all you angry old guys who hate Corbyn/Black people/ Muslims will be mostly gone then so you won't have to worry about it, the country can stay racist until your generation loses its voting power.
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