On the YouGov/Survation split the latter has a record of picking up moves to LAB better – politicalb

CorrectHorseBattery said:

My postal vote for the various London elections has gone in.

Was proud to vote for Khan again, who despite not being perfect in any way, was a far better choice than the useless Bailey. I also wanted to register my disgust with the Tory Party.

London should vote to evict the current useless Mayor. So he can have a massive hissy fit at being dumped by the voters.

And then TSE can run the thread-header:

"WRATH OF KHAN"

nico679 said:

Not sure what is more shocking , just the one point lead for the Tories or the fact that 44% say Bozo is trustworthy ! The poll is bizarre with the results of the other questions supporting a bigger Tory lead . Regardless it does seem that people judge Bozo by different standards compared to other politicians and he can get away with things others can’t .

It does seem to contradict itself

Boris leads

Trustworthy 44/26 Better represents people like me 44/30

Better to take tough decisions 48/27 More competent 47/28

Red wall 44/45 to labour

For me the most interesting bit of the Focaldata poll is this.

According to the poll, conducted by Focaldata, 47 per cent think the prime minister should resign if he is found to have broken electoral law; 36 per cent said he should not resign.

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

For me the most interesting bit of the Focaldata poll is this.

According to the poll, conducted by Focaldata, 47 per cent think the prime minister should resign if he is found to have broken electoral law; 36 per cent said he should not resign.

But then, 35% think he’s trustworthy.

All that proves is that there are some very strange and singularly credulous people out there.

I did hear that one focus group went quite negative towards Johnson when they realised that Johnson is spending £30k per year of the money of taxpayers on the flat, up to that point they thought the money spent on the flat came solely from Tory donors/a loan from CCHQ.

As the focus group put it that's a £150,000 per parliament, that's a nice house in the red wall.

TheScreamingEagles said:

For me the most interesting bit of the Focaldata poll is this.

According to the poll, conducted by Focaldata, 47 per cent think the prime minister should resign if he is found to have broken electoral law; 36 per cent said he should not resign.

The trouble with this is, firstly, Johnson supporters won't accept the veracity of such a finding and, secondly, the finding is more likely to be that the Conservative Party breached electoral law, and he'll hide behind waffle to the effect he was let down by little people. This all has potential to further wound, not kill.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

For me the most interesting bit of the Focaldata poll is this.

According to the poll, conducted by Focaldata, 47 per cent think the prime minister should resign if he is found to have broken electoral law; 36 per cent said he should not resign.

I think he should resign in those circumstances

Tonight's poll seems to contradict itself with big fall in lead but Boris leads Starmer considerable on all four tests

I have no idea what is happening and no doubt by this time next week we should know

I do not think this will effect Scotland or Wales and who knows on Hartlepool

The public do give contradictory answers.

I remember one poll from 2014 which said David Cameron was massively out of touch with the voters, compared to Ed Miliband yet on things like the NHS, the economy, the voters trusted David Cameron to manage them better than Ed Miliband.

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

For me the most interesting bit of the Focaldata poll is this.

According to the poll, conducted by Focaldata, 47 per cent think the prime minister should resign if he is found to have broken electoral law; 36 per cent said he should not resign.

The trouble with this is, firstly, Johnson supporters won't accept the veracity of such a finding and, secondly, the finding is more likely to be that the Conservative Party breached electoral law, and he'll hide behind waffle to the effect he was let down by little people. This all has potential to further wound, not kill.

I mentioned this the other day, the loan triggers all sorts of tax implications that makes the life of Boris Johnson difficult.

If he is short of a few bob then he's going to struggle to deal with tax implications of the loan.

If there's one thing the country hates is someone who doesn't pay the tax due.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1388543364279242757

Boris will make millions post his Premiership outside the HOC with public engagements and writing and the time will come when he realises that his earnings away from Office are more important now that he has undertaken Brexit and largely defeated covid

I expect Boris, when he goes, will be very swift even sudden

Oh dear, oh dear.

Senior Tory sources say that Johnson has taken out a commercial loan to repay the money he owes to the party. No 10 refuses to confirm or deny this claim. The ministerial code of conduct stipulates that even bank loans should be registered, to avoid conflicts of interest. The register of ministerial interests has not been updated since July last year.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/can-boris-johnson-afford-to-be-prime-minister-m2brczgq9?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1619889309

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

For me the most interesting bit of the Focaldata poll is this.

According to the poll, conducted by Focaldata, 47 per cent think the prime minister should resign if he is found to have broken electoral law; 36 per cent said he should not resign.

I think he should resign in those circumstances

Tonight's poll seems to contradict itself with big fall in lead but Boris leads Starmer considerable on all four tests

I have no idea what is happening and no doubt by this time next week we should know

I do not think this will effect Scotland or Wales and who knows on Hartlepool

The public do give contradictory answers.

I remember one poll from 2014 which said David Cameron was massively out of touch with the voters, compared to Ed Miliband yet on things like the NHS, the economy, the voters trusted David Cameron to manage them better than Ed Miliband.

Indeed but how that translates next Thursday I do not know

The Opinium poll put Labour up four points compared with a week ago, on 37%, while the Tories had fallen two points to 42%. While Labour will be unhappy to be behind, their gains since last week suggest some voters may be turning against Johnson and the Tories before polling day, after a barrage of stories about Conservative sleaze.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Charles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Casino_Royale said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

MarqueeMark said:

I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

Labour: ???

Have to say that, from my canvassing, there's not much movement between parties but neither is there a sense of Conservatives feeling highly motivated to turn out.

I have a sense of the past 18 months having been intensely political in one sense, but not intensely PARTY political. As partisans on this site, I think we've missed that a bit. Party politics just hasn't been on many minds.

I'm a core Conservative, and I don't think I've been this apathetic in years.

Scotland, Wales, and Harlepool will determine the narrative after next Thursday

And this conservative has definitely postal voted conservative for the Senedd, (as has my good lady)

Maybe the most predictable line I have ever written on PB !!!!!!

I put Shaun Bailey as my second choice

For the Senedd !!!!!!!!!!!

Well, he would be better than Andrew RT Davies.

And that’s not said with any notable enthusiasm for Shaun Bailey.

Even I would be better than RT

That bad, eh? Must be pretty awful!

(Just kidding - am sure you'd be as fine a FM as Wales deserves!

Are these figures correct in view of this comment

"A poll for The Sunday Times ( Focaldata ) shows a drop in support for the Tories after a turbulent week for the prime minister, who is facing a string of allegations about his finances and the decoration of his Downing Street flat. Labour is now on 39 per cent, one point behind the Tories on 40 per cent.

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1388553502541111304?s=19

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Where are the PB Tories at? Just a bubble story right? We're all idiots right?

This conservative is here and even responded to your posts

Evening all

All I'll offer is tonight's polls are the clearest signs the country has moved on from Covid.

For many, the pandemic is over due to vaccinations and it may be (and you see it on here), there's an almost febrile desire to put the last 14 months into a box, put it in the basement and never open it again.

Life may well be for living, as someone once said, but that means politics also goes back to the more mundane and away from virus-related matters. It's little surprise that is less favourable to the Government - memories are short and gratitude fleeting.

williamglenn said:

New modelling to be presented to ministers ahead of stage three of reopening on May 17 will show the risk of a "third wave" of Covid cases in the UK has diminished dramatically and may not happen at all.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/05/01/covid-modellers-optimistic-third-wave-may-not-happen/

This is what may limit the Labour gains. Given the earlier build-up and expectations, though, a fairly inconclusive result may not be bad going at all for Starmer.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oh dear, oh dear.

Senior Tory sources say that Johnson has taken out a commercial loan to repay the money he owes to the party. No 10 refuses to confirm or deny this claim. The ministerial code of conduct stipulates that even bank loans should be registered, to avoid conflicts of interest. The register of ministerial interests has not been updated since July last year.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/can-boris-johnson-afford-to-be-prime-minister-m2brczgq9?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1619889309

One wonders why he didn't just do that in the first place?
He'll never be short of a Bob or two out of office.

This would explain a lot and something I've been flagging up for a few days.

Rumours persist that the total cost of the work was pushing £200,000 — a claim flatly rejected by Downing Street. However, Tory sources say there was a second invoice and this was settled by a third party — believed to be a Conservative donor — directly with the supplier. Downing Street refused to comment on this claim.

Yet if that is the case, Johnson would have received a benefit in kind, which he would be required to register not only with the parliamentary authorities but also on his tax return. Benefits received up to April last year would have to be in his tax return submitted in January.

Fucking hell.

Senior Conservatives say donors have been approached about funding other aspects of the couple’s lifestyle. A prominent MP received a complaint from a Tory donor that they were asked to foot the bill for a nanny for Wilfred, Johnson’s son with Symonds, who turned one last week. The donor is alleged to have said: “I don’t mind paying for leaflets but I resent being asked to pay to literally wipe the prime minister’s baby’s bottom.”

MORE SONGS OF THE SPECIAL ELECTION STATES - for TEXAS 6th CONGRESSIONAL DIST.

Just found this, looking for songs about Dallas (most of the votes in today's special election are coming from south Dallas County) a true classic by an American musical legend & icon

DALLAS COUNTY JAIL BLUES
by ??? (performed by Gene Autry, the original Singing Cowboy)

I was up at the Blue Rooster Saturday night
I was kickin' and high
I was up at the Blue Rooster Saturday night
I was kickin' and high
In walked the law
And I woke up in High Five

High Five is the fifth floor
In the Dallas County Jail
High Five is the fifth floor
In the Dallas County Jail
When you get in old High Five
No one will go your bail

I looked at the walls
I could picture my baby there
I looked at the walls
I could picture my baby there
I could hear those prisoners moanin'
High Five blues everywhere

I may go the penitentiary
I may get the electric chair
I may go the penitentiary
I may get the electric chair
But I leave these prisoners moanin'
High Five blues everywhere

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bhJlP6tfL_Y

https://www.dallascounty.org/plazatour/

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

re the Times poll: Staggering that more people think Boris Johnson is trustworthy (39%) than think Keir Starmer is (33%). I mean, I know people don't follow things very closely, but: really?

I wonder if 'trustworthy' means something different to the average voter in these polls - i.e. "I'm clear on what they're about and what they'll do with it".

Good point.

News from the front line. Well, from Skipton, where I needed to visit this morning for an optician appointment. (Turns out that it hasn't made me go blind.)

Tables outside Spoons already busy with folk swilling lager by half eleven. Other pubs and cafes with outside space also doing well at lunchtime. I joined those who got a takeaway and sat on a bench outside the church to eat and drink. Town as busy as a normal Saturday - the market place was closed to traffic so that pedestrians have more space; good idea.

Meanwhile our neighbour got his second vaccine dose 6 weeks earlier than expected. Call from his GP surgery 'Can you get here in 10 minutes?' So he did.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Fucking hell.

Senior Conservatives say donors have been approached about funding other aspects of the couple’s lifestyle. A prominent MP received a complaint from a Tory donor that they were asked to foot the bill for a nanny for Wilfred, Johnson’s son with Symonds, who turned one last week. The donor is alleged to have said: “I don’t mind paying for leaflets but I resent being asked to pay to literally wipe the prime minister’s baby’s bottom.”

If these rumours and observations are true, and provable, I would expect Boris resigning in 2021 a good bet (though I do not bet)

That story is potentially even worse for Johnson, because it plays into a continuing narrative that is actually quite separate from sleaze, although sometimes intersecting with it ; personal irresponsibilty and indulgence.

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Charles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Casino_Royale said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

MarqueeMark said:

I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

Labour: ???

Have to say that, from my canvassing, there's not much movement between parties but neither is there a sense of Conservatives feeling highly motivated to turn out.

I have a sense of the past 18 months having been intensely political in one sense, but not intensely PARTY political. As partisans on this site, I think we've missed that a bit. Party politics just hasn't been on many minds.

I'm a core Conservative, and I don't think I've been this apathetic in years.

Scotland, Wales, and Harlepool will determine the narrative after next Thursday

And this conservative has definitely postal voted conservative for the Senedd, (as has my good lady)

Maybe the most predictable line I have ever written on PB !!!!!!

I put Shaun Bailey as my second choice

For the Senedd !!!!!!!!!!!

Well, he would be better than Andrew RT Davies.

And that’s not said with any notable enthusiasm for Shaun Bailey.

Even I would be better than RT

That bad, eh? Must be pretty awful!

(Just kidding - am sure you'd be as fine a FM as Wales deserves!

That’s a remarkably double edged compliment.

justin124 said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/01/tory-poll-lead-slashed-as-key-elections-loom-across-britain

Opinium 5 point, so a drop of 6 points

That strikes me as more likely in terms of where the land currently lies.

Agreed

Big_G_NorthWales said:

nico679 said:

Not sure what is more shocking , just the one point lead for the Tories or the fact that 44% say Bozo is trustworthy ! The poll is bizarre with the results of the other questions supporting a bigger Tory lead . Regardless it does seem that people judge Bozo by different standards compared to other politicians and he can get away with things others can’t .

It does seem to contradict itself

Boris leads

Trustworthy 44/26 Better represents people like me 44/30

Better to take tough decisions 48/27 More competent 47/28

Red wall 44/45 to labour

I think the personal leads are down to name recognition - lots of people still have no clear opinion about Starmer. Having said I thought Survation was an outlier, it seems not!

Anecdata: did a lot of phone canvassing today - I put my foot out doing too much leafleting over the last two weeks, so retreated to the phone. The phone bank focuses on target voters so I've little picture of what Tory voters are doing, but the Lab and LD votes seem very solid. Quite a lot of motivated voters, to my surprise - just 2 out of 60 didn't know there was an election, and just 7 definitely won't vote.

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Charles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Casino_Royale said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

MarqueeMark said:

I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

Labour: ???

Have to say that, from my canvassing, there's not much movement between parties but neither is there a sense of Conservatives feeling highly motivated to turn out.

I have a sense of the past 18 months having been intensely political in one sense, but not intensely PARTY political. As partisans on this site, I think we've missed that a bit. Party politics just hasn't been on many minds.

I'm a core Conservative, and I don't think I've been this apathetic in years.

Scotland, Wales, and Harlepool will determine the narrative after next Thursday

And this conservative has definitely postal voted conservative for the Senedd, (as has my good lady)

Maybe the most predictable line I have ever written on PB !!!!!!

I put Shaun Bailey as my second choice

For the Senedd !!!!!!!!!!!

Well, he would be better than Andrew RT Davies.

And that’s not said with any notable enthusiasm for Shaun Bailey.

Even I would be better than RT

That bad, eh? Must be pretty awful!

(Just kidding - am sure you'd be as fine a FM as Wales deserves!

The nearest I got to power was acting as David Jones driver in the 2010 GE, who is not only a friend, but actually became Secretary of State for Wales

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Conservative lead over Labour has narrowed sharply with five days to go until the local elections on Thursday, as the furore over Boris Johnson’s flat refurbishment starts to cut through.

An exclusive poll for The Sunday Times shows a slump in support for the Tories after a turbulent week for the prime minister, who is facing a string of sleaze allegations. Labour is now on 39 per cent, one point behind the Tories on 40 per cent.

More worrying for the Conservative Party is that Johnson is losing his grip on the “red wall” seats that propelled him to power. According to the poll, Labour has pushed ahead of the Tories and now leads in the party’s former heartlands in the Midlands and the north of England. In the 43 “red wall” seats that the Conservatives won at the last election, Sir Keir Starmer’s party is on 45 per cent, with the Tories on 44 per cent.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-lead-slumps-and-pm-loses-red-wall-support-five-days-before-local-elections-m7fpzdd7r

Interesting.

I love the John Lewis question.

Carrie Antoinette really has damaged Boris Johnson.

You told me off for digging at her a few months back!

On her private life.

On her opulent tastes that is fine.

Some MPs and old friends of Johnson blame Symonds — whom they call “Carrie Antoinette” — for the excessive spending on the flat, saying Johnson has little regard for opulent furnishings or clothing. “Boris didn’t really know anything about it until Carrie handed him the bill,” said one Downing Street insider. “She has champagne tastes and a lemonade budget.”

She's very skilled professionally - we can see that in the turnaround in Government communications since October - but he's too influenced by her personal tastes on lifestyle and personal views on politics.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/01/tory-poll-lead-slashed-as-key-elections-loom-across-britain

Opinium 5 point, so a drop of 6 points

It does seem to be cutting through

Maybe, maybe not.

The main difference I believe is almost every TV or radio news bulletin from Christmas to a fortnight ago started with the words "Boris Johnson" and a positive story. Team Johnson managed the stories very, very well. For example, as the age range for vaccination invitation dropped by a year, so the news bulletins reported it, Boris Johnson says "invites will go out today in England for all those over 50 (49,48,47,46, 45- just pick a number) to be vaccinated". Or Boris Johnson says "He can't wait to go to the pub when they open, like the British public, he says he is looking forward to a beer". Stories that stuck in the voters' psyche, "Boris Johnson, what a guy!"

It was phenomenal news management from Number 10, which since the Cameron story broke seems to have run away from them. I don't know, but this also seems to have coincided with Allegra Stratton falling out of favour.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Fucking hell.

Senior Conservatives say donors have been approached about funding other aspects of the couple’s lifestyle. A prominent MP received a complaint from a Tory donor that they were asked to foot the bill for a nanny for Wilfred, Johnson’s son with Symonds, who turned one last week. The donor is alleged to have said: “I don’t mind paying for leaflets but I resent being asked to pay to literally wipe the prime minister’s baby’s bottom.”

Jesus did say, "suffer the little children" but do NOT think he meant leaving their little bottoms unwiped, which definitely DOES cause suffering.

So B & C were just trying to help their fellow Tories do good deeds (is there a pun there?) for the salvation of their souls. No doubt they (like me) can use all the help they can get!

Still, may come across to some - for example, official standards watchdogs - as a tad crass, even when in the fundamental interest (!) of an innocent babe.

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

re the Times poll: Staggering that more people think Boris Johnson is trustworthy (39%) than think Keir Starmer is (33%). I mean, I know people don't follow things very closely, but: really?

It has happened in other polls, one pollster I spoke to says this is driven by Brexit, Boris Johnson delivered Brexit, and too plenty of voters that's the only important thing.

Yes, although in reality it was Theresa May who delivered Brexit by invoking Article 50. Boris just had to let the clock run out.

Bit more to it than that given the post GE2017 parliament, which Theresa May also delivered, wouldn't let the clock run out.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Conservative lead over Labour has narrowed sharply with five days to go until the local elections on Thursday, as the furore over Boris Johnson’s flat refurbishment starts to cut through.

An exclusive poll for The Sunday Times shows a slump in support for the Tories after a turbulent week for the prime minister, who is facing a string of sleaze allegations. Labour is now on 39 per cent, one point behind the Tories on 40 per cent.

More worrying for the Conservative Party is that Johnson is losing his grip on the “red wall” seats that propelled him to power. According to the poll, Labour has pushed ahead of the Tories and now leads in the party’s former heartlands in the Midlands and the north of England. In the 43 “red wall” seats that the Conservatives won at the last election, Sir Keir Starmer’s party is on 45 per cent, with the Tories on 44 per cent.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-lead-slumps-and-pm-loses-red-wall-support-five-days-before-local-elections-m7fpzdd7r

Interesting.

I love the John Lewis question.

Carrie Antoinette really has damaged Boris Johnson.

You told me off for digging at her a few months back!

On her private life.

On her opulent tastes that is fine.

Some MPs and old friends of Johnson blame Symonds — whom they call “Carrie Antoinette” — for the excessive spending on the flat, saying Johnson has little regard for opulent furnishings or clothing. “Boris didn’t really know anything about it until Carrie handed him the bill,” said one Downing Street insider. “She has champagne tastes and a lemonade budget.”

Politically speaking, "Carrie Antoinette" is a damn sight more insightful AND hurtful (to her & her pard) than "Princess Nut Nut".

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Conservative lead over Labour has narrowed sharply with five days to go until the local elections on Thursday, as the furore over Boris Johnson’s flat refurbishment starts to cut through.

An exclusive poll for The Sunday Times shows a slump in support for the Tories after a turbulent week for the prime minister, who is facing a string of sleaze allegations. Labour is now on 39 per cent, one point behind the Tories on 40 per cent.

More worrying for the Conservative Party is that Johnson is losing his grip on the “red wall” seats that propelled him to power. According to the poll, Labour has pushed ahead of the Tories and now leads in the party’s former heartlands in the Midlands and the north of England. In the 43 “red wall” seats that the Conservatives won at the last election, Sir Keir Starmer’s party is on 45 per cent, with the Tories on 44 per cent.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-lead-slumps-and-pm-loses-red-wall-support-five-days-before-local-elections-m7fpzdd7r

Interesting.

I love the John Lewis question.

Carrie Antoinette really has damaged Boris Johnson.

You told me off for digging at her a few months back!

On her private life.

On her opulent tastes that is fine.

Some MPs and old friends of Johnson blame Symonds — whom they call “Carrie Antoinette” — for the excessive spending on the flat, saying Johnson has little regard for opulent furnishings or clothing. “Boris didn’t really know anything about it until Carrie handed him the bill,” said one Downing Street insider. “She has champagne tastes and a lemonade budget.”

Politically speaking, "Carrie Antoinette" is a damn sight more insightful AND hurtful (to her & her pard) than "Princess Nut Nut".

It has been clear to me that Boris Johnson isn’t enjoying the job of PM.

How else can we explain the ridiculous mistakes

Boris Johnson is emulating Churchill's inability to live within his means.

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/01/tory-poll-lead-slashed-as-key-elections-loom-across-britain

Opinium 5 point, so a drop of 6 points

It does seem to be cutting through

Maybe, maybe not.

The main difference I believe is almost every TV or radio news bulletin from Christmas to a fortnight ago started with the words "Boris Johnson" and a positive story. Team Johnson managed the stories very, very well. For example, as the age range for vaccination invitation dropped by a year, so the news bulletins reported it, Boris Johnson says "invites will go out today in England for all those over 50 (49,48,47,46, 45- just pick a number) to be vaccinated". Or Boris Johnson says "He can't wait to go to the pub when they open, like the British public, he says he is looking forward to a beer". Stories that stuck in the voters' psyche, "Boris Johnson, what a guy!"

It was phenomenal news management from Number 10, which since the Cameron story broke seems to have run away from them. I don't know, but this also seems to have coincided with Allegra Stratton falling out of favour.

Do we know why- or is there any amusing tittle-tattle claiming why- Allegra Stratton fell out of favour? Wasn't she originally on Team Carrie, which was why Dom left before Christmas?

NickPalmer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

nico679 said:

Not sure what is more shocking , just the one point lead for the Tories or the fact that 44% say Bozo is trustworthy ! The poll is bizarre with the results of the other questions supporting a bigger Tory lead . Regardless it does seem that people judge Bozo by different standards compared to other politicians and he can get away with things others can’t .

It does seem to contradict itself

Boris leads

Trustworthy 44/26 Better represents people like me 44/30

Better to take tough decisions 48/27 More competent 47/28

Red wall 44/45 to labour

I think the personal leads are down to name recognition - lots of people still have no clear opinion about Starmer. Having said I thought Survation was an outlier, it seems not!

Anecdata: did a lot of phone canvassing today - I put my foot out doing too much leafleting over the last two weeks, so retreated to the phone. The phone bank focuses on target voters so I've little picture of what Tory voters are doing, but the Lab and LD votes seem very solid. Quite a lot of motivated voters, to my surprise - just 2 out of 60 didn't know there was an election, and just 7 definitely won't vote.

If your phone bank system has the marked register data, it might be targeting likely voters, though.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Charles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Casino_Royale said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

MarqueeMark said:

I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

Labour: ???

Have to say that, from my canvassing, there's not much movement between parties but neither is there a sense of Conservatives feeling highly motivated to turn out.

I have a sense of the past 18 months having been intensely political in one sense, but not intensely PARTY political. As partisans on this site, I think we've missed that a bit. Party politics just hasn't been on many minds.

I'm a core Conservative, and I don't think I've been this apathetic in years.

Scotland, Wales, and Harlepool will determine the narrative after next Thursday

And this conservative has definitely postal voted conservative for the Senedd, (as has my good lady)

Maybe the most predictable line I have ever written on PB !!!!!!

I put Shaun Bailey as my second choice

For the Senedd !!!!!!!!!!!

Well, he would be better than Andrew RT Davies.

And that’s not said with any notable enthusiasm for Shaun Bailey.

Even I would be better than RT

That bad, eh? Must be pretty awful!

(Just kidding - am sure you'd be as fine a FM as Wales deserves!

The nearest I got to power was acting as David Jones driver in the 2010 GE, who is not only a friend, but actually became Secretary of State for Wales

You've got me beat on THAT score.

Back in 1993 I drove Gary Locke, then candidate for King Co Executive and a future two-term Governor of Washington (the first Chinese American governor in the US, and first Asian American outside of Hawaii) around for an afternoon, in his own car.

Gary was extremely annoyed because he did NOT like the way I was shifting (or rather grinding) his gears! As a consequence, my hope of becoming the "power behind the throne" were dashed, never to be revived.

No doubt best for me, him and the Great State of WA.

Stuartinromford said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/01/tory-poll-lead-slashed-as-key-elections-loom-across-britain

Opinium 5 point, so a drop of 6 points

It does seem to be cutting through

Maybe, maybe not.

The main difference I believe is almost every TV or radio news bulletin from Christmas to a fortnight ago started with the words "Boris Johnson" and a positive story. Team Johnson managed the stories very, very well. For example, as the age range for vaccination invitation dropped by a year, so the news bulletins reported it, Boris Johnson says "invites will go out today in England for all those over 50 (49,48,47,46, 45- just pick a number) to be vaccinated". Or Boris Johnson says "He can't wait to go to the pub when they open, like the British public, he says he is looking forward to a beer". Stories that stuck in the voters' psyche, "Boris Johnson, what a guy!"

It was phenomenal news management from Number 10, which since the Cameron story broke seems to have run away from them. I don't know, but this also seems to have coincided with Allegra Stratton falling out of favour.

Do we know why- or is there any amusing tittle-tattle claiming why- Allegra Stratton fell out of favour? Wasn't she originally on Team Carrie, which was why Dom left before Christmas?

I don’t think she so much fell out of favour as the idea of having regular live press conferences did. As the news agenda turned against the clown, doubtless he rethought whether having someone fronting questions about his personal life every afternoon was such a good idea after all.

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Charles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Casino_Royale said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

MarqueeMark said:

I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

Labour: ???

Have to say that, from my canvassing, there's not much movement between parties but neither is there a sense of Conservatives feeling highly motivated to turn out.

I have a sense of the past 18 months having been intensely political in one sense, but not intensely PARTY political. As partisans on this site, I think we've missed that a bit. Party politics just hasn't been on many minds.

I'm a core Conservative, and I don't think I've been this apathetic in years.

Scotland, Wales, and Harlepool will determine the narrative after next Thursday

And this conservative has definitely postal voted conservative for the Senedd, (as has my good lady)

Maybe the most predictable line I have ever written on PB !!!!!!

I put Shaun Bailey as my second choice

For the Senedd !!!!!!!!!!!

Well, he would be better than Andrew RT Davies.

And that’s not said with any notable enthusiasm for Shaun Bailey.

Even I would be better than RT

That bad, eh? Must be pretty awful!

(Just kidding - am sure you'd be as fine a FM as Wales deserves!

The nearest I got to power was acting as David Jones driver in the 2010 GE, who is not only a friend, but actually became Secretary of State for Wales

You've got me beat on THAT score.

Back in 1993 I drove Gary Locke, then candidate for King Co Executive and a future two-term Governor of Washington (the first Chinese American governor in the US, and first Asian American outside of Hawaii) around for an afternoon, in his own car.

Gary was extremely annoyed because he did NOT like the way I was shifting (or rather grinding) his gears! As a consequence, my hope of becoming the "power behind the throne" were dashed, never to be revived.

No doubt best for me, him and the Great State of WA.

It could have been worse, you could have driven Gary Hart.

Or worse still Ted Kennedy could have been driving SeaShanty!

Big_G_NorthWales said:

dr_spyn said:

Boris Johnson is emulating Churchill's inability to live within his means.

And that to my mind is why I expect he will leave Office sooner rather than later

He can make millions outside the HOC

Although Churchill held on for at least two years (arguably six) longer than he should have done. Eden was getting very impatient with his reluctance to retire and Macmillan actually thought there was a chance the government was drifting to collapse because Churchill’s brain damage from his second stroke was so severe.

Politicians give up power very reluctantly. Am I right in thinking the only Prime Minister in your lifetime who has given it up willingly before it was effectively dragged off him was Wilson in 1976? And arguably, he should have resigned after the debacle of 1970.

Casino_Royale said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

My postal vote for the various London elections has gone in.

Was proud to vote for Khan again, who despite not being perfect in any way, was a far better choice than the useless Bailey. I also wanted to register my disgust with the Tory Party.

Darn. I had you down as a maybe.

Lol.

As an illustration of how electoral systems can fox voters, a friend who is a senior foreign affairs journalist told me that she'd voted 1. Khan 2. The rejoin-EU candidate, as she likes Khan but wanted to show support for the EU too. I asked why she'd not done it the other way round, since this way her 2nd vote won't count. She was completely nonplussed - "Is that how it works? I thought you just put your order of preference."

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

dr_spyn said:

Boris Johnson is emulating Churchill's inability to live within his means.

And that to my mind is why I expect he will leave Office sooner rather than later

He can make millions outside the HOC

Although Churchill held on for at least two years (arguably six) longer than he should have done. Eden was getting very impatient with his reluctance to retire and Macmillan actually thought there was a chance the government was drifting to collapse because Churchill’s brain damage from his second stroke was so severe.

Politicians give up power very reluctantly. Am I right in thinking the only Prime Minister in your lifetime who has given it up willingly before it was effectively dragged off him was Wilson in 1976? And arguably, he should have resigned after the debacle of 1970.

Er, Blair went before he was pushed.

You could even make an argument that Cameron could have kept going after the referendum.

nico679 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

nico679 said:

I think Hartlepool is a real struggle for Labour and the Johnson drama of the last week has come a bit too late however it could do enough damage in Scotland to push the Tories into third place . If the SNP get a majority aswell then that would be a real problem for no 10.

On Scotland I am expecting labour to take second place and have been for some time

Th conservatives in Scotland in common with Wales have very poor leaders in Douglas Ross and Andrew RT Davies

Agreed I’ve seen Ross a few times in interviews and he’s been poor . I think the last week will impact the Tories in Scotland .

Knowing Scotland as I do and married to a northern Scot for near 60 years the politics in Scotland is all about independence and the growing resistance

Boris is already in the basement of ratings, though Salmond is even worse, but I am not expecting it to effect votes

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Charles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Casino_Royale said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

MarqueeMark said:

I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

Labour: ???

Have to say that, from my canvassing, there's not much movement between parties but neither is there a sense of Conservatives feeling highly motivated to turn out.

I have a sense of the past 18 months having been intensely political in one sense, but not intensely PARTY political. As partisans on this site, I think we've missed that a bit. Party politics just hasn't been on many minds.

I'm a core Conservative, and I don't think I've been this apathetic in years.

Scotland, Wales, and Harlepool will determine the narrative after next Thursday

And this conservative has definitely postal voted conservative for the Senedd, (as has my good lady)

Maybe the most predictable line I have ever written on PB !!!!!!

I put Shaun Bailey as my second choice

For the Senedd !!!!!!!!!!!

Well, he would be better than Andrew RT Davies.

And that’s not said with any notable enthusiasm for Shaun Bailey.

Even I would be better than RT

That bad, eh? Must be pretty awful!

(Just kidding - am sure you'd be as fine a FM as Wales deserves!

The nearest I got to power was acting as David Jones driver in the 2010 GE, who is not only a friend, but actually became Secretary of State for Wales

You've got me beat on THAT score.

Back in 1993 I drove Gary Locke, then candidate for King Co Executive and a future two-term Governor of Washington (the first Chinese American governor in the US, and first Asian American outside of Hawaii) around for an afternoon, in his own car.

Gary was extremely annoyed because he did NOT like the way I was shifting (or rather grinding) his gears! As a consequence, my hope of becoming the "power behind the throne" were dashed, never to be revived.

No doubt best for me, him and the Great State of WA.

It could have been worse, you could have driven Gary Hart.

BUT think of the perks!

nico679 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

nico679 said:

I think Hartlepool is a real struggle for Labour and the Johnson drama of the last week has come a bit too late however it could do enough damage in Scotland to push the Tories into third place . If the SNP get a majority aswell then that would be a real problem for no 10.

On Scotland I am expecting labour to take second place and have been for some time

Th conservatives in Scotland in common with Wales have very poor leaders in Douglas Ross and Andrew RT Davies

Agreed I’ve seen Ross a few times in interviews and he’s been poor . I think the last week will impact the Tories in Scotland .

Ross exudes the wit and wisdom of an experienced Tory grandee compared to RT.

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

dr_spyn said:

Boris Johnson is emulating Churchill's inability to live within his means.

And that to my mind is why I expect he will leave Office sooner rather than later

He can make millions outside the HOC

Although Churchill held on for at least two years (arguably six) longer than he should have done. Eden was getting very impatient with his reluctance to retire and Macmillan actually thought there was a chance the government was drifting to collapse because Churchill’s brain damage from his second stroke was so severe.

Politicians give up power very reluctantly. Am I right in thinking the only Prime Minister in your lifetime who has given it up willingly before it was effectively dragged off him was Wilson in 1976? And arguably, he should have resigned after the debacle of 1970.

Yes indeed but if the comments on his flat as expressed on here tonight are confirmed I cannot see him having any choice