On the YouGov/Survation split the latter has a record of picking up moves to LAB better – politicalb

System

On the YouGov/Survation split the latter has a record of picking up moves to LAB better – politicalbetting.com

Wikipedia final GE2017 polls

Read the full story here

MikeSmithson

Test

MarqueeMark

I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

Labour: ???

Stocky

Oh my word. Covid figures today are excellent: 1907/7/160.

Stocky

MarqueeMark said:

I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

Labour: ???

Low turnout overall but Labour get their vote our better than the Tories? Could be the story in Hartlepool?

Philip_Thompson

Interesting idea. I half-expected this thread to be cautioning about outliers until further evidence comes in.

Be interesting to see soon enough.

Taz

The polls are all over the shop at the moment. They’re a bit of a Rorschach test. I’d think the Tory lead is more in the region of 4 or 5 % than 11% or 1%.

I admired HYUFDs expectations management earlier today.

Big_G_NorthWales

Taz said:

The polls are all over the shop at the moment. They’re a bit of a Rorschach test. I’d think the Tory lead is more in the region of 4 or 5 % than 11% or 1%.

I admired HYUFDs expectations management earlier today.

Not long to wait for all to be revealed

Taz

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Taz said:

The polls are all over the shop at the moment. They’re a bit of a Rorschach test. I’d think the Tory lead is more in the region of 4 or 5 % than 11% or 1%.

I admired HYUFDs expectations management earlier today.

Not long to wait for all to be revealed

Exactly. I’m not convinced people move greatly one way or another at this stage of any campaign. 2017 being an exception.

williamglenn

Only 7 deaths reported.

Casino_Royale

MarqueeMark said:

I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

Labour: ???

He's a lover not a fighter.

Morris_Dancer

That boxing video is quite hilarious.

ydoethur

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Taz said:

The polls are all over the shop at the moment. They’re a bit of a Rorschach test. I’d think the Tory lead is more in the region of 4 or 5 % than 11% or 1%.

I admired HYUFDs expectations management earlier today.

Not long to wait for all to be revealed

I thought in Newport West the candidate had revealed all already...

Stuartinromford

Taz said:

The polls are all over the shop at the moment. They’re a bit of a Rorschach test. I’d think the Tory lead is more in the region of 4 or 5 % than 11% or 1%.

I admired HYUFDs expectations management earlier today.

That's probably right. I'm not buying 1% yet, but a lead (say) 7-8% a few weeks back may well have shrunk to 4-5%. As for why now, two observations;
First is that voters rarely do gratitude as such. A good crisis can reveal a positive attribute going forward- here it's that not everything Johnson touches turns into an expensive fiasco. But that's as far as it usually goes.
Second is that the drift down in Labour's share started with a Lab to Green shift. My theory was that SKS was seen as too supportive of the government. Inevitable when they went several months without a balls-up, but not good for a Leader of the Opposition. Even if you don't agree with the significance of the government's recent failings, they exist and have given SKS opportunities which he's taken. So that's helped pull the anti-government vote back into the red column.

Now, we have to wait and see what Opinium says and what the Sundays have dug up. Will it be Life Goes On for the government or Here's Where The Story Ends?

ydoethur

williamglenn said:

Only 7 deaths reported.

Down 79% in a week from a low base is very good news however you hack it.

Albeit the Beeb will be disappointed.

squareroot2

I would normally vote Blue but voted yellow at the GE because of Brexit. If I was to vote one could discount the loony parties and Labour. At the moment I feel unlikely to vote for anyone.

SeaShantyIrish2

SONGS OF THE SPECIAL ELECTION STATES - TEXAS

Waylon Jennings - Luckenbach, Texas (Back to the Basics of Love)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ti6QV90X-Sk

LUCKENBACH, TEXAS (BACK TO THE BASICS OF LOVE)
Bobby Emmons & Chip Moman (and made famous by the late, great Waylon Jennings)

The only two things in life that make it worth livin'
Is guitars that tune good and firm feelin' women
I don't need my name in the marquee lights
I got my song and I got you with me tonight

Maybe it's time we got back to the basics of love

Let's go to Luckenbach, Texas
With Waylon and Willie and the boys
This successful life we're livin'
Got us feuding like the Hatfields and McCoys
Between Hank Williams' pain songs and
Newbury's train songs and "Blue Eyes Cryin' in the Rain"
Out in Luckenbach, Texas ain't nobody feelin' no pain

So baby, let's sell your diamond ring
Buy some boots and faded jeans and go away
This coat and tie is choking me
In your high society, you cry all day
We've been so busy keepin' up with the Jones
Four car garage and we're still building on

Maybe it's time we got back to the basics of love

Let's go to Luckenbach, Texas
With Waylon and Willie and the boys
This successful life we're livin' got us feudin'
Like the Hatfield and McCoys
Between Hank Williams' pain songs and
Newbury's train songs and "Blue Eyes Cryin' in the Rain"
Out in Luckenbach, Texas ain't nobody feelin' no pain

SirNorfolkPassmore

MarqueeMark said:

I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

Labour: ???

Have to say that, from my canvassing, there's not much movement between parties but neither is there a sense of Conservatives feeling highly motivated to turn out.

I have a sense of the past 18 months having been intensely political in one sense, but not intensely PARTY political. As partisans on this site, I think we've missed that a bit. Party politics just hasn't been on many minds.

Andy_JS

O/T

"Pubs running low on certain beers after brewers underestimate post-lockdown demand

Brewers are reportedly struggling to fulfil orders as groups of up to six people are now allowed to meet in beer gardens."

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-pubs-running-low-on-certain-beers-after-brewers-underestimate-post-lockdown-demand-12292076

MarqueeMark

williamglenn said:

Only 7 deaths reported.

Has to be a chance of a day over the Bank Holiday with zero deaths....

That would be quite something for Boris to announce ahead of the voting next week.

felix

The Survation poll had BJ 8 or so points ahead on PM preference which seems odd.

MarqueeMark

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

MarqueeMark said:

I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

Labour: ???

Have to say that, from my canvassing, there's not much movement between parties but neither is there a sense of Conservatives feeling highly motivated to turn out.

I have a sense of the past 18 months having been intensely political in one sense, but not intensely PARTY political. As partisans on this site, I think we've missed that a bit. Party politics just hasn't been on many minds.

As I have previously said, I agree we are seeing very little movement of voters from their declared intentions in December 2019.

Malmesbury

UK cases by specimen date

Malmesbury

UK case summary

Malmesbury

UK hospitals

Malmesbury

UK deaths by death date

Malmesbury

UK R

ydoethur

MarqueeMark said:

williamglenn said:

Only 7 deaths reported.

Has to be a chance of a day over the Bank Holiday with zero deaths....

That would be quite something for Boris to announce ahead of the voting next week.

He could couple it with the abandoning of mask wearing for pupils in schools.

Now *that* would be popular.

And, given how useless they are under those circumstances, a free hit.

Malmesbury

Age related data

Charles

Please reassure me this is a fake 😂😂

https://mobile.twitter.com/AnnaMinnie4/status/1388413502289813506

Malmesbury

Age related data scaled to 100k per age group

Malmesbury

UK vaccinations

Malmesbury

CFR

Casino_Royale

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

MarqueeMark said:

I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

Labour: ???

Have to say that, from my canvassing, there's not much movement between parties but neither is there a sense of Conservatives feeling highly motivated to turn out.

I have a sense of the past 18 months having been intensely political in one sense, but not intensely PARTY political. As partisans on this site, I think we've missed that a bit. Party politics just hasn't been on many minds.

I'm a core Conservative, and I don't think I've been this apathetic in years.

Malmesbury

Stuartinromford said:

Taz said:

The polls are all over the shop at the moment. They’re a bit of a Rorschach test. I’d think the Tory lead is more in the region of 4 or 5 % than 11% or 1%.

I admired HYUFDs expectations management earlier today.

That's probably right. I'm not buying 1% yet, but a lead (say) 7-8% a few weeks back may well have shrunk to 4-5%. As for why now, two observations;
First is that voters rarely do gratitude as such. A good crisis can reveal a positive attribute going forward- here it's that not everything Johnson touches turns into an expensive fiasco. But that's as far as it usually goes.
Second is that the drift down in Labour's share started with a Lab to Green shift. My theory was that SKS was seen as too supportive of the government. Inevitable when they went several months without a balls-up, but not good for a Leader of the Opposition. Even if you don't agree with the significance of the government's recent failings, they exist and have given SKS opportunities which he's taken. So that's helped pull the anti-government vote back into the red column.

Now, we have to wait and see what Opinium says and what the Sundays have dug up. Will it be Life Goes On for the government or Here's Where The Story Ends?

I think that this approach -

https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/

has much to recommend it. All polls from serious pollsters are counted and plotted on the graph.

Malmesbury

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

williamglenn said:

Only 7 deaths reported.

Has to be a chance of a day over the Bank Holiday with zero deaths....

That would be quite something for Boris to announce ahead of the voting next week.

He could couple it with the abandoning of mask wearing for pupils in schools.

Now *that* would be popular.

And, given how useless they are under those circumstances, a free hit.

The interesting thing on deaths is that we are seeing, finally, the death rates for the elderly really converging on the younger groups.

dixiedean

Casino_Royale said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

MarqueeMark said:

I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

Labour: ???

Have to say that, from my canvassing, there's not much movement between parties but neither is there a sense of Conservatives feeling highly motivated to turn out.

I have a sense of the past 18 months having been intensely political in one sense, but not intensely PARTY political. As partisans on this site, I think we've missed that a bit. Party politics just hasn't been on many minds.

I'm a core Conservative, and I don't think I've been this apathetic in years.

I have to agree. Minus the first bit.
Folk are emotionally drained.

MarqueeMark

Casino_Royale said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

MarqueeMark said:

I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

Labour: ???

Have to say that, from my canvassing, there's not much movement between parties but neither is there a sense of Conservatives feeling highly motivated to turn out.

I have a sense of the past 18 months having been intensely political in one sense, but not intensely PARTY political. As partisans on this site, I think we've missed that a bit. Party politics just hasn't been on many minds.

I'm a core Conservative, and I don't think I've been this apathetic in years.

2019 General Election turnout: 67.3%

2017 local elections turnout: 35.0%

Getting on for half of those who voted in the general will now vote Can't Be Arsed Party. The question is: will it be evenly spread across the parties, or will the Tories have a better chance of getting their vote out - as a thank you for their jabs and ending the lockdowns?

Big_G_NorthWales

Casino_Royale said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

MarqueeMark said:

I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

Labour: ???

Have to say that, from my canvassing, there's not much movement between parties but neither is there a sense of Conservatives feeling highly motivated to turn out.

I have a sense of the past 18 months having been intensely political in one sense, but not intensely PARTY political. As partisans on this site, I think we've missed that a bit. Party politics just hasn't been on many minds.

I'm a core Conservative, and I don't think I've been this apathetic in years.

Scotland, Wales, and Harlepool will determine the narrative after next Thursday

And this conservative has definitely postal voted conservative for the Senedd, (as has my good lady)

Maybe the most predictable line I have ever written on PB !!!!!!

Charles

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Casino_Royale said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

MarqueeMark said:

I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

Labour: ???

Have to say that, from my canvassing, there's not much movement between parties but neither is there a sense of Conservatives feeling highly motivated to turn out.

I have a sense of the past 18 months having been intensely political in one sense, but not intensely PARTY political. As partisans on this site, I think we've missed that a bit. Party politics just hasn't been on many minds.

I'm a core Conservative, and I don't think I've been this apathetic in years.

Scotland, Wales, and Harlepool will determine the narrative after next Thursday

And this conservative has definitely postal voted conservative for the Senedd, (as has my good lady)

Maybe the most predictable line I have ever written on PB !!!!!!

I put Shaun Bailey as my second choice

TimT

Morris_Dancer said:

That boxing video is quite hilarious.

I really don't think Starmer has the concept of punching down, yet.

Taz

Keir Starmer on the local news saying he’s delighted to be in Hartlepool. 😂😂😂😂

Politicians don’t come to places like Hartlepool or give a damn about the people there unless they have to be seen to.

Big_G_NorthWales

Charles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Casino_Royale said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

MarqueeMark said:

I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

Labour: ???

Have to say that, from my canvassing, there's not much movement between parties but neither is there a sense of Conservatives feeling highly motivated to turn out.

I have a sense of the past 18 months having been intensely political in one sense, but not intensely PARTY political. As partisans on this site, I think we've missed that a bit. Party politics just hasn't been on many minds.

I'm a core Conservative, and I don't think I've been this apathetic in years.

Scotland, Wales, and Harlepool will determine the narrative after next Thursday

And this conservative has definitely postal voted conservative for the Senedd, (as has my good lady)

Maybe the most predictable line I have ever written on PB !!!!!!

I put Shaun Bailey as my second choice

For the Senedd !!!!!!!!!!!

ThomasNashe

Charles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Casino_Royale said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

MarqueeMark said:

I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

Labour: ???

Have to say that, from my canvassing, there's not much movement between parties but neither is there a sense of Conservatives feeling highly motivated to turn out.

I have a sense of the past 18 months having been intensely political in one sense, but not intensely PARTY political. As partisans on this site, I think we've missed that a bit. Party politics just hasn't been on many minds.

I'm a core Conservative, and I don't think I've been this apathetic in years.

Scotland, Wales, and Harlepool will determine the narrative after next Thursday

And this conservative has definitely postal voted conservative for the Senedd, (as has my good lady)

Maybe the most predictable line I have ever written on PB !!!!!!

I put Shaun Bailey as my second choice

Khan your first?

ydoethur

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Charles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Casino_Royale said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

MarqueeMark said:

I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

Labour: ???

Have to say that, from my canvassing, there's not much movement between parties but neither is there a sense of Conservatives feeling highly motivated to turn out.

I have a sense of the past 18 months having been intensely political in one sense, but not intensely PARTY political. As partisans on this site, I think we've missed that a bit. Party politics just hasn't been on many minds.

I'm a core Conservative, and I don't think I've been this apathetic in years.

Scotland, Wales, and Harlepool will determine the narrative after next Thursday

And this conservative has definitely postal voted conservative for the Senedd, (as has my good lady)

Maybe the most predictable line I have ever written on PB !!!!!!

I put Shaun Bailey as my second choice

For the Senedd !!!!!!!!!!!

Well, he would be better than Andrew RT Davies.

And that’s not said with any notable enthusiasm for Shaun Bailey.

Sunil_Prasannan

Casino_Royale said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

MarqueeMark said:

I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

Labour: ???

Have to say that, from my canvassing, there's not much movement between parties but neither is there a sense of Conservatives feeling highly motivated to turn out.

I have a sense of the past 18 months having been intensely political in one sense, but not intensely PARTY political. As partisans on this site, I think we've missed that a bit. Party politics just hasn't been on many minds.

I'm a core Conservative, and I don't think I've been this pathetic in years.

[Sunil whistles innocently]

Big_G_NorthWales

TimT said:

Morris_Dancer said:

That boxing video is quite hilarious.

I really don't think Starmer has the concept of punching down, yet.

I like Starmer but he does not inspire, maybe with respect to our lawyer friends he is too much the lawyer and not the politician

And who on earth are his advisors when he pulled these recent stunts

They are quite frankly, or should be, beneath him

Big_G_NorthWales

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Charles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Casino_Royale said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

MarqueeMark said:

I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

Labour: ???

Have to say that, from my canvassing, there's not much movement between parties but neither is there a sense of Conservatives feeling highly motivated to turn out.

I have a sense of the past 18 months having been intensely political in one sense, but not intensely PARTY political. As partisans on this site, I think we've missed that a bit. Party politics just hasn't been on many minds.

I'm a core Conservative, and I don't think I've been this apathetic in years.

Scotland, Wales, and Harlepool will determine the narrative after next Thursday

And this conservative has definitely postal voted conservative for the Senedd, (as has my good lady)

Maybe the most predictable line I have ever written on PB !!!!!!

I put Shaun Bailey as my second choice

For the Senedd !!!!!!!!!!!

Well, he would be better than Andrew RT Davies.

And that’s not said with any notable enthusiasm for Shaun Bailey.

Even I would be better than RT

TimT

Charles said:

Please reassure me this is a fake 😂😂

https://mobile.twitter.com/AnnaMinnie4/status/1388413502289813506

I like the version with more sex appeal ...

MikeL

Con has shortened further for Hartlepool - now 1.53. Was 1.6 yesterday I think (pre YouGov).

So anything leaking out?

TimT

Malmesbury said:

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

williamglenn said:

Only 7 deaths reported.

Has to be a chance of a day over the Bank Holiday with zero deaths....

That would be quite something for Boris to announce ahead of the voting next week.

He could couple it with the abandoning of mask wearing for pupils in schools.

Now *that* would be popular.

And, given how useless they are under those circumstances, a free hit.

The interesting thing on deaths is that we are seeing, finally, the death rates for the elderly really converging on the younger groups.

So the unvaccinated young are at the same risk levels (actually, lower) than the fully vaccinated elderly? (OK, I am being deliberately cheeky, here)

Big_G_NorthWales

MikeL said:

Con has shortened further for Hartlepool - now 1.53. Was 1.6 yesterday I think (pre YouGov).

So anything leaking out?

Maybe that is why Starmer is there

They must have their own polling surely

TimT

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TimT said:

Morris_Dancer said:

That boxing video is quite hilarious.

I really don't think Starmer has the concept of punching down, yet.

I like Starmer but he does not inspire, maybe with respect to our lawyer friends he is too much the lawyer and not the politician

And who on earth are his advisors when he pulled these recent stunts

They are quite frankly, or should be, beneath him

Particularly the wallpaper one. Adolescent levels of behaviour.

Sandpit

MikeL said:

Con has shortened further for Hartlepool - now 1.53. Was 1.6 yesterday I think (pre YouGov).

So anything leaking out?

I know the world is going mad, but 1/2 for the government taking a by-election win from the opposition, in the middle of a massive recession?

londonpubman

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MikeL said:

Con has shortened further for Hartlepool - now 1.53. Was 1.6 yesterday I think (pre YouGov).

So anything leaking out?

Maybe that is why Starmer is there

They must have their own polling surely

I've said it before on here, I'll say it again. I think LAB will win in Hartlepool.

I don't think CON will do much at all next week.

But I might be wrong!

Big_G_NorthWales

londonpubman said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MikeL said:

Con has shortened further for Hartlepool - now 1.53. Was 1.6 yesterday I think (pre YouGov).

So anything leaking out?

Maybe that is why Starmer is there

They must have their own polling surely

I've said it before on here, I'll say it again. I think LAB will win in Hartlepool.

I don't think CON will do much at all next week.

But I might be wrong!

To be honest I have no idea who will win

ydoethur

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Charles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Casino_Royale said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

MarqueeMark said:

I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

Labour: ???

Have to say that, from my canvassing, there's not much movement between parties but neither is there a sense of Conservatives feeling highly motivated to turn out.

I have a sense of the past 18 months having been intensely political in one sense, but not intensely PARTY political. As partisans on this site, I think we've missed that a bit. Party politics just hasn't been on many minds.

I'm a core Conservative, and I don't think I've been this apathetic in years.

Scotland, Wales, and Harlepool will determine the narrative after next Thursday

And this conservative has definitely postal voted conservative for the Senedd, (as has my good lady)

Maybe the most predictable line I have ever written on PB !!!!!!

I put Shaun Bailey as my second choice

For the Senedd !!!!!!!!!!!

Well, he would be better than Andrew RT Davies.

And that’s not said with any notable enthusiasm for Shaun Bailey.

Even I would be better than RT

Don’t sell yourself short Big G. You’d be better than many politicians.

But even macdonnell is better than RT. At least Macdonnell is pretty bright.

MikeL

Sorry - meant to say Con were 1.6 for Hartlepool pre Survation.

ie they've shortened despite the Survation.

Casino_Royale

MarqueeMark said:

Casino_Royale said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

MarqueeMark said:

I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

Labour: ???

Have to say that, from my canvassing, there's not much movement between parties but neither is there a sense of Conservatives feeling highly motivated to turn out.

I have a sense of the past 18 months having been intensely political in one sense, but not intensely PARTY political. As partisans on this site, I think we've missed that a bit. Party politics just hasn't been on many minds.

I'm a core Conservative, and I don't think I've been this apathetic in years.

2019 General Election turnout: 67.3%

2017 local elections turnout: 35.0%

Getting on for half of those who voted in the general will now vote Can't Be Arsed Party. The question is: will it be evenly spread across the parties, or will the Tories have a better chance of getting their vote out - as a thank you for their jabs and ending the lockdowns?

I'm not sure the electorate "do" gratitude. They move straight onto the next thing.

One of my principle impediments to voting Conservative this time is the pre-emptive 6-month extension of the Coronavirus Act, which the Lib Dems opposed.

Charles

ThomasNashe said:

Charles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Casino_Royale said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

MarqueeMark said:

I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

Labour: ???

Have to say that, from my canvassing, there's not much movement between parties but neither is there a sense of Conservatives feeling highly motivated to turn out.

I have a sense of the past 18 months having been intensely political in one sense, but not intensely PARTY political. As partisans on this site, I think we've missed that a bit. Party politics just hasn't been on many minds.

I'm a core Conservative, and I don't think I've been this apathetic in years.

Scotland, Wales, and Harlepool will determine the narrative after next Thursday

And this conservative has definitely postal voted conservative for the Senedd, (as has my good lady)

Maybe the most predictable line I have ever written on PB !!!!!!

I put Shaun Bailey as my second choice

Khan your first?

Some minor candidate - Farah London I think? I went through the other manifestos and it came down to her or Count Binface

Charles

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TimT said:

Morris_Dancer said:

That boxing video is quite hilarious.

I really don't think Starmer has the concept of punching down, yet.

I like Starmer but he does not inspire, maybe with respect to our lawyer friends he is too much the lawyer and not the politician

And who on earth are his advisors when he pulled these recent stunts

They are quite frankly, or should be, beneath him

I think having your advisers beneath you is frowned on these days. Perhaps we should ask Michael Gove his opinion?

Sandpit

TimT said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TimT said:

Morris_Dancer said:

That boxing video is quite hilarious.

I really don't think Starmer has the concept of punching down, yet.

I like Starmer but he does not inspire, maybe with respect to our lawyer friends he is too much the lawyer and not the politician

And who on earth are his advisors when he pulled these recent stunts

They are quite frankly, or should be, beneath him

Particularly the wallpaper one. Adolescent levels of behaviour.

Memories of Miliband and Balls going to Greggs for pasties.

Starmer is supposed to be the serious one, he needs to totally ignore all the Village gossip stuff, even when his team all think it’s hillarious to do stunts like that.

Edit: just seen the “Vote Labour” red boxing gloves. Again, don’t make an idiot of yourself trying to learn skills on camera. Be the serious one, for serious times.

Barnesian

MarqueeMark said:

Casino_Royale said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

MarqueeMark said:

I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

Labour: ???

Have to say that, from my canvassing, there's not much movement between parties but neither is there a sense of Conservatives feeling highly motivated to turn out.

I have a sense of the past 18 months having been intensely political in one sense, but not intensely PARTY political. As partisans on this site, I think we've missed that a bit. Party politics just hasn't been on many minds.

I'm a core Conservative, and I don't think I've been this apathetic in years.

2019 General Election turnout: 67.3%

2017 local elections turnout: 35.0%

Getting on for half of those who voted in the general will now vote Can't Be Arsed Party. The question is: will it be evenly spread across the parties, or will the Tories have a better chance of getting their vote out - as a thank you for their jabs and ending the lockdowns?

People are more motivated to get out to vote against something than for something. Indignation is a better motivator than gratitude. I just can't see "thank you" votes.

Big_G_NorthWales

And for Boris it is built-in to his character

https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1388525446053122049?s=19

kinabalu

Sandpit said:

MikeL said:

Con has shortened further for Hartlepool - now 1.53. Was 1.6 yesterday I think (pre YouGov).

So anything leaking out?

I know the world is going mad, but 1/2 for the government taking a by-election win from the opposition, in the middle of a massive recession?

The party of Hard Leave under Mr Hard Leave to win in the capital of Hard Leave having just delivered Hard Leave and beaten Covid before the Europe that we've just Hard Left has got its boots on.

If this is not the odds on favourite outcome in a sane world I'm not a clear thinking progressive.

TimT

Sandpit said:

TimT said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TimT said:

Morris_Dancer said:

That boxing video is quite hilarious.

I really don't think Starmer has the concept of punching down, yet.

I like Starmer but he does not inspire, maybe with respect to our lawyer friends he is too much the lawyer and not the politician

And who on earth are his advisors when he pulled these recent stunts

They are quite frankly, or should be, beneath him

Particularly the wallpaper one. Adolescent levels of behaviour.

Memories of Miliband and Balls going to Greggs for pasties.

Starmer is supposed to be the serious one, he needs to totally ignore all the Village gossip stuff, even when his team all think it’s hillarious to do stunts like that.

Edit: just seen the “Vote Labour” red boxing gloves. Again, don’t make an idiot of yourself trying to learn skills on camera. Be the serious one, for serious times.

Indeed, brand-building is about consistency of messaging - this all cuts across the brand. Idiot advisors.

williamglenn

Starmer's next opponent:

Mexicanpete

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TimT said:

Morris_Dancer said:

That boxing video is quite hilarious.

I really don't think Starmer has the concept of punching down, yet.

I like Starmer but he does not inspire, maybe with respect to our lawyer friends he is too much the lawyer and not the politician

And who on earth are his advisors when he pulled these recent stunts

They are quite frankly, or should be, beneath him

I think Johnson looks ridiculous pulling daft stunts, so for the sake of consistency, a plague on Starmer's house too.

Starmer should watch the Peter Cook film; The Rise and Rise of Michael Rimmer. Proof if it were needed that Labour policicians and stupid stunts work out badly.

Please cease and desist Mr Starmer!

Mexicanpete

williamglenn said:

Starmer's next opponent:

How dare you refer to Liz Truss as a paper bag!

Casino_Royale

Sandpit said:

TimT said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TimT said:

Morris_Dancer said:

That boxing video is quite hilarious.

I really don't think Starmer has the concept of punching down, yet.

I like Starmer but he does not inspire, maybe with respect to our lawyer friends he is too much the lawyer and not the politician

And who on earth are his advisors when he pulled these recent stunts

They are quite frankly, or should be, beneath him

Particularly the wallpaper one. Adolescent levels of behaviour.

Memories of Miliband and Balls going to Greggs for pasties.

Starmer is supposed to be the serious one, he needs to totally ignore all the Village gossip stuff, even when his team all think it’s hillarious to do stunts like that.

Edit: just seen the “Vote Labour” red boxing gloves. Again, don’t make an idiot of yourself trying to learn skills on camera. Be the serious one, for serious times.

I said similar to David Herdson on Twitter: if you're going to do a stunt like that (and these are all planned and arranged, all of them) you discuss how you want to go, and also how it could go wrong in advance. And then you practice, if you're not 100% confident.

I suspect Starmer either didn't ask or didn't feel it would be "genuine" to do that, which just goes to show how bad he is at politics.

MikeSmithson

I wonder if we are going to see a Hartlepool poll tonight? The last one was nearly a month ago.

TheScreamingEagles

The Conservative lead over Labour has narrowed sharply with five days to go until the local elections on Thursday, as the furore over Boris Johnson’s flat refurbishment starts to cut through.

An exclusive poll for The Sunday Times shows a slump in support for the Tories after a turbulent week for the prime minister, who is facing a string of sleaze allegations. Labour is now on 39 per cent, one point behind the Tories on 40 per cent.

More worrying for the Conservative Party is that Johnson is losing his grip on the “red wall” seats that propelled him to power. According to the poll, Labour has pushed ahead of the Tories and now leads in the party’s former heartlands in the Midlands and the north of England. In the 43 “red wall” seats that the Conservatives won at the last election, Sir Keir Starmer’s party is on 45 per cent, with the Tories on 44 per cent.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-lead-slumps-and-pm-loses-red-wall-support-five-days-before-local-elections-m7fpzdd7r

TheScreamingEagles

But in the latest poll 35 per cent of people say they are less likely to vote Conservative than they were a month ago.

According to the poll, conducted by Focaldata, 47 per cent think the prime minister should resign if he is found to have broken electoral law; 36 per cent said he should not resign.

Big_G_NorthWales

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Conservative lead over Labour has narrowed sharply with five days to go until the local elections on Thursday, as the furore over Boris Johnson’s flat refurbishment starts to cut through.

An exclusive poll for The Sunday Times shows a slump in support for the Tories after a turbulent week for the prime minister, who is facing a string of sleaze allegations. Labour is now on 39 per cent, one point behind the Tories on 40 per cent.

More worrying for the Conservative Party is that Johnson is losing his grip on the “red wall” seats that propelled him to power. According to the poll, Labour has pushed ahead of the Tories and now leads in the party’s former heartlands in the Midlands and the north of England. In the 43 “red wall” seats that the Conservatives won at the last election, Sir Keir Starmer’s party is on 45 per cent, with the Tories on 44 per cent.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-lead-slumps-and-pm-loses-red-wall-support-five-days-before-local-elections-m7fpzdd7r

Interesting

state_go_away

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TimT said:

Morris_Dancer said:

That boxing video is quite hilarious.

I really don't think Starmer has the concept of punching down, yet.

I like Starmer but he does not inspire, maybe with respect to our lawyer friends he is too much the lawyer and not the politician

And who on earth are his advisors when he pulled these recent stunts

They are quite frankly, or should be, beneath him

I think Johnson looks ridiculous pulling daft stunts, so for the sake of consistency, a plague on Starmer's house too.

Starmer should watch the Peter Cook film; The Rise and Rise of Michael Rimmer. Proof if it were needed that Labour policicians and stupid stunts work out badly.

Please cease and desist Mr Starmer!

The stunt itself was ok but Starmer should have got some activists to do it . It is not fitting for a leader and certainly not a leader of Starmer's character.

As for the whole flat decoration scandal , well I think Johnson probably broke some rules but what stupid rules to begin with. Why not give each PM a option to decorate, what is after all a government owned flat . at the start of each tenure at the taxpayers expense? How much valuable PM time has been wasted on this rubbish. We have a weird sense in this country of being extremely mean with the top jobs "benefits" .

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Conservative lead over Labour has narrowed sharply with five days to go until the local elections on Thursday, as the furore over Boris Johnson’s flat refurbishment starts to cut through.

An exclusive poll for The Sunday Times shows a slump in support for the Tories after a turbulent week for the prime minister, who is facing a string of sleaze allegations. Labour is now on 39 per cent, one point behind the Tories on 40 per cent.

More worrying for the Conservative Party is that Johnson is losing his grip on the “red wall” seats that propelled him to power. According to the poll, Labour has pushed ahead of the Tories and now leads in the party’s former heartlands in the Midlands and the north of England. In the 43 “red wall” seats that the Conservatives won at the last election, Sir Keir Starmer’s party is on 45 per cent, with the Tories on 44 per cent.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-lead-slumps-and-pm-loses-red-wall-support-five-days-before-local-elections-m7fpzdd7r

Interesting.

I love the John Lewis question.

Richard_Nabavi

According to Twitter, #worldnakedgardeningday is trending in the United Kingdom.

Not round this part of the United Kingdom it isn't. Bleedin' freezing. Not a single naked gardener has been spotted.

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Conservative lead over Labour has narrowed sharply with five days to go until the local elections on Thursday, as the furore over Boris Johnson’s flat refurbishment starts to cut through.

An exclusive poll for The Sunday Times shows a slump in support for the Tories after a turbulent week for the prime minister, who is facing a string of sleaze allegations. Labour is now on 39 per cent, one point behind the Tories on 40 per cent.

More worrying for the Conservative Party is that Johnson is losing his grip on the “red wall” seats that propelled him to power. According to the poll, Labour has pushed ahead of the Tories and now leads in the party’s former heartlands in the Midlands and the north of England. In the 43 “red wall” seats that the Conservatives won at the last election, Sir Keir Starmer’s party is on 45 per cent, with the Tories on 44 per cent.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-lead-slumps-and-pm-loses-red-wall-support-five-days-before-local-elections-m7fpzdd7r

Interesting.

I love the John Lewis question.

Carrie Antoinette really has damaged Boris Johnson.

Stuartinromford

TheScreamingEagles said:

But in the latest poll 35 per cent of people say they are less likely to vote Conservative than they were a month ago.

According to the poll, conducted by Focaldata, 47 per cent think the prime minister should resign if he is found to have broken electoral law; 36 per cent said he should not resign.

Echoes this from yesterday, on the lying to Parliament question;

https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1388057764186972160?s=19

I don't know about everyone else, but the party and age splits are beginning to scare me here. As with Trump, a chunk of the population seem like they will forgive "Boris" anything.

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Conservative lead over Labour has narrowed sharply with five days to go until the local elections on Thursday, as the furore over Boris Johnson’s flat refurbishment starts to cut through.

An exclusive poll for The Sunday Times shows a slump in support for the Tories after a turbulent week for the prime minister, who is facing a string of sleaze allegations. Labour is now on 39 per cent, one point behind the Tories on 40 per cent.

More worrying for the Conservative Party is that Johnson is losing his grip on the “red wall” seats that propelled him to power. According to the poll, Labour has pushed ahead of the Tories and now leads in the party’s former heartlands in the Midlands and the north of England. In the 43 “red wall” seats that the Conservatives won at the last election, Sir Keir Starmer’s party is on 45 per cent, with the Tories on 44 per cent.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-lead-slumps-and-pm-loses-red-wall-support-five-days-before-local-elections-m7fpzdd7r

Interesting.

I love the John Lewis question.

Carrie Antoinette really has damaged Boris Johnson.

Will she lead the Tories to pursue a decapitation strategy?

Richard_Nabavi

re the Times poll: Staggering that more people think Boris Johnson is trustworthy (39%) than think Keir Starmer is (33%). I mean, I know people don't follow things very closely, but: really?

Razedabode

I dunno - if you look at that focal point poll, Johnson still remains considerable leads over Starmer, bizarrely including “most trustworthy” 😂

Stuartinromford

Richard_Nabavi said:

According to Twitter, #worldnakedgardeningday is trending in the United Kingdom.

Not round this part of the United Kingdom it isn't. Bleedin' freezing. Not a single naked gardener has been spotted.

Have any of them got goosepimples instead?

Floater

williamglenn said:

Starmer's next opponent:

My money is on the bag

CorrectHorseBattery

My postal vote for the various London elections has gone in.

Was proud to vote for Khan again, who despite not being perfect in any way, was a far better choice than the useless Bailey. I also wanted to register my disgust with the Tory Party.

MrEd

Sandpit said:

MikeL said:

Con has shortened further for Hartlepool - now 1.53. Was 1.6 yesterday I think (pre YouGov).

So anything leaking out?

I know the world is going mad, but 1/2 for the government taking a by-election win from the opposition, in the middle of a massive recession?

Not a bet I would take.

CursingStone

Sandpit said:

MikeL said:

Con has shortened further for Hartlepool - now 1.53. Was 1.6 yesterday I think (pre YouGov).

So anything leaking out?

I know the world is going mad, but 1/2 for the government taking a by-election win from the opposition, in the middle of a massive recession?

We are not in a recession, massive or otherwise.

CursingStone

CorrectHorseBattery said:

My postal vote for the various London elections has gone in.

Was proud to vote for Khan again, who despite not being perfect in any way, was a far better choice than the useless Bailey. I also wanted to register my disgust with the Tory Party.

Arent you always disgusted by the Tory Party?

CorrectHorseBattery

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1388544433260568577

Another lead of 1 for the Tories, something is happening

ping

state_go_away said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TimT said:

Morris_Dancer said:

That boxing video is quite hilarious.

I really don't think Starmer has the concept of punching down, yet.

I like Starmer but he does not inspire, maybe with respect to our lawyer friends he is too much the lawyer and not the politician

And who on earth are his advisors when he pulled these recent stunts

They are quite frankly, or should be, beneath him

I think Johnson looks ridiculous pulling daft stunts, so for the sake of consistency, a plague on Starmer's house too.

Starmer should watch the Peter Cook film; The Rise and Rise of Michael Rimmer. Proof if it were needed that Labour policicians and stupid stunts work out badly.

Please cease and desist Mr Starmer!

The stunt itself was ok but Starmer should have got some activists to do it . It is not fitting for a leader and certainly not a leader of Starmer's character.

As for the whole flat decoration scandal , well I think Johnson probably broke some rules but what stupid rules to begin with. Why not give each PM a option to decorate, what is after all a government owned flat . at the start of each tenure at the taxpayers expense? How much valuable PM time has been wasted on this rubbish. We have a weird sense in this country of being extremely mean with the top jobs "benefits" .

I thought that, until I heard that the pm gets £30k per year allowance.

That’s more than enough.

bigjohnowls

On topic.

This is not 2017

Then we had a Charismatic leader with a populist, inspiring to many, manifesto, up against a boring useless cardboard cut out who could not inspire a paper bag.

The lead was cut by almost 20pts in a month.

Of course the boring leader is now the one trying to cut a 10pt deficit

Hopefully he does cut the lead at least in half but Boris is Teflon Tim.

CorrectHorseBattery

Opinium tonight will be fascinating.

So we have Focaldata and Survation with 1 point leads.

YouGov with 11 point

Jonathan

bigjohnowls said:

On topic.

This is not 2017

Then we had a Charismatic leader with a populist, inspiring to many, manifesto, up against a boring useless cardboard cut out who could not inspire a paper bag.

The lead was cut by almost 20pts in a month.

Of course the boring leader is now the one trying to cut a 10pt deficit

Hopefully he does cut the lead at least in half but Boris is Teflon Tim.

Still batting for Corbyn. Bless.

squareroot2

TheScreamingEagles said:

But in the latest poll 35 per cent of people say they are less likely to vote Conservative than they were a month ago.

According to the poll, conducted by Focaldata, 47 per cent think the prime minister should resign if he is found to have broken electoral law; 36 per cent said he should not resign.

Who are folcadata.. and what is their track record.. they might be as inaccurate as Angus Reed were...

MarqueeMark

Can I just say - Starmer hitting that punchbag like a 6 year old girl looks W-A-Y worse than Miliband's bacon sarnie.

Miliband's was inadvertent. Starmer's was teed up.

With Labour Party gloves.

*titter*

Andy_JS

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1388544433260568577

Another lead of 1 for the Tories, something is happening

I'd be interested to see the working-class/middle-class numbers.

bigjohnowls

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Conservative lead over Labour has narrowed sharply with five days to go until the local elections on Thursday, as the furore over Boris Johnson’s flat refurbishment starts to cut through.

An exclusive poll for The Sunday Times shows a slump in support for the Tories after a turbulent week for the prime minister, who is facing a string of sleaze allegations. Labour is now on 39 per cent, one point behind the Tories on 40 per cent.

More worrying for the Conservative Party is that Johnson is losing his grip on the “red wall” seats that propelled him to power. According to the poll, Labour has pushed ahead of the Tories and now leads in the party’s former heartlands in the Midlands and the north of England. In the 43 “red wall” seats that the Conservatives won at the last election, Sir Keir Starmer’s party is on 45 per cent, with the Tories on 44 per cent.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-lead-slumps-and-pm-loses-red-wall-support-five-days-before-local-elections-m7fpzdd7r

Interesting

Needed to happen 10 days earlier to impact on LE's and Hartlepool to the extent that it turns into a bad night for the Tories IMO

MarqueeMark

squareroot2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

But in the latest poll 35 per cent of people say they are less likely to vote Conservative than they were a month ago.

According to the poll, conducted by Focaldata, 47 per cent think the prime minister should resign if he is found to have broken electoral law; 36 per cent said he should not resign.

Who are folcadata.. and what is their track record.. they might be as inaccurate as Angus Reed were...

35% could have gone from "highly unlikely" to "never in a million years".

Net effect on votes? Zero.

nico679

Not sure what is more shocking , just the one point lead for the Tories or the fact that 44% say Bozo is trustworthy ! The poll is bizarre with the results of the other questions supporting a bigger Tory lead . Regardless it does seem that people judge Bozo by different standards compared to other politicians and he can get away with things others can’t .

TheScreamingEagles

squareroot2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

But in the latest poll 35 per cent of people say they are less likely to vote Conservative than they were a month ago.

According to the poll, conducted by Focaldata, 47 per cent think the prime minister should resign if he is found to have broken electoral law; 36 per cent said he should not resign.

Who are folcadata.. and what is their track record.. they might be as inaccurate as Angus Reed were...

They had an alright 2019GE with their MRP.

They are run by people who have worked at other decent pollsters.

Pulpstar

Starmer's bagwork making Boris look like Ali lol