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On the YouGov/Survation split the latter has a record of picking up moves to LAB better – politicalb

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited May 2021 in General
imageOn the YouGov/Survation split the latter has a record of picking up moves to LAB better – politicalbetting.com

Wikipedia final GE2017 polls

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Comments

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Test
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

    Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

    Labour: ???
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    Oh my word. Covid figures today are excellent: 1907/7/160.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653

    I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

    Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

    Labour: ???

    Low turnout overall but Labour get their vote our better than the Tories? Could be the story in Hartlepool?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Interesting idea. I half-expected this thread to be cautioning about outliers until further evidence comes in.

    Be interesting to see soon enough.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,704
    The polls are all over the shop at the moment. They’re a bit of a Rorschach test. I’d think the Tory lead is more in the region of 4 or 5 % than 11% or 1%.

    I admired HYUFDs expectations management earlier today.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    Taz said:

    The polls are all over the shop at the moment. They’re a bit of a Rorschach test. I’d think the Tory lead is more in the region of 4 or 5 % than 11% or 1%.

    I admired HYUFDs expectations management earlier today.

    Not long to wait for all to be revealed
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,704

    Taz said:

    The polls are all over the shop at the moment. They’re a bit of a Rorschach test. I’d think the Tory lead is more in the region of 4 or 5 % than 11% or 1%.

    I admired HYUFDs expectations management earlier today.

    Not long to wait for all to be revealed
    Exactly. I’m not convinced people move greatly one way or another at this stage of any campaign. 2017 being an exception.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Only 7 deaths reported.
    image
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038

    I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

    Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

    Labour: ???

    He's a lover not a fighter.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    That boxing video is quite hilarious.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    Taz said:

    The polls are all over the shop at the moment. They’re a bit of a Rorschach test. I’d think the Tory lead is more in the region of 4 or 5 % than 11% or 1%.

    I admired HYUFDs expectations management earlier today.

    Not long to wait for all to be revealed
    I thought in Newport West the candidate had revealed all already...
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,093
    Taz said:

    The polls are all over the shop at the moment. They’re a bit of a Rorschach test. I’d think the Tory lead is more in the region of 4 or 5 % than 11% or 1%.

    I admired HYUFDs expectations management earlier today.

    That's probably right. I'm not buying 1% yet, but a lead (say) 7-8% a few weeks back may well have shrunk to 4-5%. As for why now, two observations;
    First is that voters rarely do gratitude as such. A good crisis can reveal a positive attribute going forward- here it's that not everything Johnson touches turns into an expensive fiasco. But that's as far as it usually goes.
    Second is that the drift down in Labour's share started with a Lab to Green shift. My theory was that SKS was seen as too supportive of the government. Inevitable when they went several months without a balls-up, but not good for a Leader of the Opposition. Even if you don't agree with the significance of the government's recent failings, they exist and have given SKS opportunities which he's taken. So that's helped pull the anti-government vote back into the red column.

    Now, we have to wait and see what Opinium says and what the Sundays have dug up. Will it be Life Goes On for the government or Here's Where The Story Ends?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    Only 7 deaths reported.
    image

    Down 79% in a week from a low base is very good news however you hack it.

    Albeit the Beeb will be disappointed.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,288
    I would normally vote Blue but voted yellow at the GE because of Brexit. If I was to vote one could discount the loony parties and Labour. At the moment I feel unlikely to vote for anyone.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    SONGS OF THE SPECIAL ELECTION STATES - TEXAS

    Waylon Jennings - Luckenbach, Texas (Back to the Basics of Love)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ti6QV90X-Sk

    LUCKENBACH, TEXAS (BACK TO THE BASICS OF LOVE)
    Bobby Emmons & Chip Moman (and made famous by the late, great Waylon Jennings)

    The only two things in life that make it worth livin'
    Is guitars that tune good and firm feelin' women
    I don't need my name in the marquee lights
    I got my song and I got you with me tonight

    Maybe it's time we got back to the basics of love

    Let's go to Luckenbach, Texas
    With Waylon and Willie and the boys
    This successful life we're livin'
    Got us feuding like the Hatfields and McCoys
    Between Hank Williams' pain songs and
    Newbury's train songs and "Blue Eyes Cryin' in the Rain"
    Out in Luckenbach, Texas ain't nobody feelin' no pain

    So baby, let's sell your diamond ring
    Buy some boots and faded jeans and go away
    This coat and tie is choking me
    In your high society, you cry all day
    We've been so busy keepin' up with the Jones
    Four car garage and we're still building on

    Maybe it's time we got back to the basics of love

    Let's go to Luckenbach, Texas
    With Waylon and Willie and the boys
    This successful life we're livin' got us feudin'
    Like the Hatfield and McCoys
    Between Hank Williams' pain songs and
    Newbury's train songs and "Blue Eyes Cryin' in the Rain"
    Out in Luckenbach, Texas ain't nobody feelin' no pain
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    O/T

    "Pubs running low on certain beers after brewers underestimate post-lockdown demand

    Brewers are reportedly struggling to fulfil orders as groups of up to six people are now allowed to meet in beer gardens."

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-pubs-running-low-on-certain-beers-after-brewers-underestimate-post-lockdown-demand-12292076
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    Only 7 deaths reported.
    image

    Has to be a chance of a day over the Bank Holiday with zero deaths....

    That would be quite something for Boris to announce ahead of the voting next week.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    The Survation poll had BJ 8 or so points ahead on PM preference which seems odd.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

    Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

    Labour: ???

    Have to say that, from my canvassing, there's not much movement between parties but neither is there a sense of Conservatives feeling highly motivated to turn out.

    I have a sense of the past 18 months having been intensely political in one sense, but not intensely PARTY political. As partisans on this site, I think we've missed that a bit. Party politics just hasn't been on many minds.
    As I have previously said, I agree we are seeing very little movement of voters from their declared intentions in December 2019.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,626
    UK cases by specimen date

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,626
    UK case summary

    image
    image
    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,626
    UK hospitals

    image
    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,626
    UK deaths by death date

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,626
    UK R

    image
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    Only 7 deaths reported.
    image

    Has to be a chance of a day over the Bank Holiday with zero deaths....

    That would be quite something for Boris to announce ahead of the voting next week.
    He could couple it with the abandoning of mask wearing for pupils in schools.

    Now *that* would be popular.

    And, given how useless they are under those circumstances, a free hit.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,626
    Age related data

    image
    image
    image
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Please reassure me this is a fake 😂😂

    https://mobile.twitter.com/AnnaMinnie4/status/1388413502289813506
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,626
    Age related data scaled to 100k per age group

    image
    image
    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,626
    UK vaccinations

    image
    image
    image
    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,626
    CFR

    image
    image
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038

    I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

    Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

    Labour: ???

    Have to say that, from my canvassing, there's not much movement between parties but neither is there a sense of Conservatives feeling highly motivated to turn out.

    I have a sense of the past 18 months having been intensely political in one sense, but not intensely PARTY political. As partisans on this site, I think we've missed that a bit. Party politics just hasn't been on many minds.
    I'm a core Conservative, and I don't think I've been this apathetic in years.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,626

    Taz said:

    The polls are all over the shop at the moment. They’re a bit of a Rorschach test. I’d think the Tory lead is more in the region of 4 or 5 % than 11% or 1%.

    I admired HYUFDs expectations management earlier today.

    That's probably right. I'm not buying 1% yet, but a lead (say) 7-8% a few weeks back may well have shrunk to 4-5%. As for why now, two observations;
    First is that voters rarely do gratitude as such. A good crisis can reveal a positive attribute going forward- here it's that not everything Johnson touches turns into an expensive fiasco. But that's as far as it usually goes.
    Second is that the drift down in Labour's share started with a Lab to Green shift. My theory was that SKS was seen as too supportive of the government. Inevitable when they went several months without a balls-up, but not good for a Leader of the Opposition. Even if you don't agree with the significance of the government's recent failings, they exist and have given SKS opportunities which he's taken. So that's helped pull the anti-government vote back into the red column.

    Now, we have to wait and see what Opinium says and what the Sundays have dug up. Will it be Life Goes On for the government or Here's Where The Story Ends?
    I think that this approach -

    https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/

    has much to recommend it. All polls from serious pollsters are counted and plotted on the graph.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,626
    ydoethur said:

    Only 7 deaths reported.
    image

    Has to be a chance of a day over the Bank Holiday with zero deaths....

    That would be quite something for Boris to announce ahead of the voting next week.
    He could couple it with the abandoning of mask wearing for pupils in schools.

    Now *that* would be popular.

    And, given how useless they are under those circumstances, a free hit.
    The interesting thing on deaths is that we are seeing, finally, the death rates for the elderly really converging on the younger groups.

    image
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

    Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

    Labour: ???

    Have to say that, from my canvassing, there's not much movement between parties but neither is there a sense of Conservatives feeling highly motivated to turn out.

    I have a sense of the past 18 months having been intensely political in one sense, but not intensely PARTY political. As partisans on this site, I think we've missed that a bit. Party politics just hasn't been on many minds.
    I'm a core Conservative, and I don't think I've been this apathetic in years.
    I have to agree. Minus the first bit.
    Folk are emotionally drained.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

    Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

    Labour: ???

    Have to say that, from my canvassing, there's not much movement between parties but neither is there a sense of Conservatives feeling highly motivated to turn out.

    I have a sense of the past 18 months having been intensely political in one sense, but not intensely PARTY political. As partisans on this site, I think we've missed that a bit. Party politics just hasn't been on many minds.
    I'm a core Conservative, and I don't think I've been this apathetic in years.
    2019 General Election turnout: 67.3%

    2017 local elections turnout: 35.0%

    Getting on for half of those who voted in the general will now vote Can't Be Arsed Party. The question is: will it be evenly spread across the parties, or will the Tories have a better chance of getting their vote out - as a thank you for their jabs and ending the lockdowns?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

    Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

    Labour: ???

    Have to say that, from my canvassing, there's not much movement between parties but neither is there a sense of Conservatives feeling highly motivated to turn out.

    I have a sense of the past 18 months having been intensely political in one sense, but not intensely PARTY political. As partisans on this site, I think we've missed that a bit. Party politics just hasn't been on many minds.
    I'm a core Conservative, and I don't think I've been this apathetic in years.
    Scotland, Wales, and Harlepool will determine the narrative after next Thursday

    And this conservative has definitely postal voted conservative for the Senedd, (as has my good lady)

    Maybe the most predictable line I have ever written on PB !!!!!!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

    Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

    Labour: ???

    Have to say that, from my canvassing, there's not much movement between parties but neither is there a sense of Conservatives feeling highly motivated to turn out.

    I have a sense of the past 18 months having been intensely political in one sense, but not intensely PARTY political. As partisans on this site, I think we've missed that a bit. Party politics just hasn't been on many minds.
    I'm a core Conservative, and I don't think I've been this apathetic in years.
    Scotland, Wales, and Harlepool will determine the narrative after next Thursday

    And this conservative has definitely postal voted conservative for the Senedd, (as has my good lady)

    Maybe the most predictable line I have ever written on PB !!!!!!
    I put Shaun Bailey as my second choice
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328

    That boxing video is quite hilarious.

    I really don't think Starmer has the concept of punching down, yet.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,704
    Keir Starmer on the local news saying he’s delighted to be in Hartlepool. 😂😂😂😂

    Politicians don’t come to places like Hartlepool or give a damn about the people there unless they have to be seen to.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    Charles said:

    I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

    Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

    Labour: ???

    Have to say that, from my canvassing, there's not much movement between parties but neither is there a sense of Conservatives feeling highly motivated to turn out.

    I have a sense of the past 18 months having been intensely political in one sense, but not intensely PARTY political. As partisans on this site, I think we've missed that a bit. Party politics just hasn't been on many minds.
    I'm a core Conservative, and I don't think I've been this apathetic in years.
    Scotland, Wales, and Harlepool will determine the narrative after next Thursday

    And this conservative has definitely postal voted conservative for the Senedd, (as has my good lady)

    Maybe the most predictable line I have ever written on PB !!!!!!
    I put Shaun Bailey as my second choice
    For the Senedd !!!!!!!!!!!
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,922
    Charles said:

    I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

    Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

    Labour: ???

    Have to say that, from my canvassing, there's not much movement between parties but neither is there a sense of Conservatives feeling highly motivated to turn out.

    I have a sense of the past 18 months having been intensely political in one sense, but not intensely PARTY political. As partisans on this site, I think we've missed that a bit. Party politics just hasn't been on many minds.
    I'm a core Conservative, and I don't think I've been this apathetic in years.
    Scotland, Wales, and Harlepool will determine the narrative after next Thursday

    And this conservative has definitely postal voted conservative for the Senedd, (as has my good lady)

    Maybe the most predictable line I have ever written on PB !!!!!!
    I put Shaun Bailey as my second choice
    Khan your first?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    edited May 2021

    Charles said:

    I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

    Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

    Labour: ???

    Have to say that, from my canvassing, there's not much movement between parties but neither is there a sense of Conservatives feeling highly motivated to turn out.

    I have a sense of the past 18 months having been intensely political in one sense, but not intensely PARTY political. As partisans on this site, I think we've missed that a bit. Party politics just hasn't been on many minds.
    I'm a core Conservative, and I don't think I've been this apathetic in years.
    Scotland, Wales, and Harlepool will determine the narrative after next Thursday

    And this conservative has definitely postal voted conservative for the Senedd, (as has my good lady)

    Maybe the most predictable line I have ever written on PB !!!!!!
    I put Shaun Bailey as my second choice
    For the Senedd !!!!!!!!!!!
    Well, he would be better than Andrew RT Davies.

    And that’s not said with any notable enthusiasm for Shaun Bailey.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,926
    edited May 2021

    I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

    Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

    Labour: ???

    Have to say that, from my canvassing, there's not much movement between parties but neither is there a sense of Conservatives feeling highly motivated to turn out.

    I have a sense of the past 18 months having been intensely political in one sense, but not intensely PARTY political. As partisans on this site, I think we've missed that a bit. Party politics just hasn't been on many minds.
    I'm a core Conservative, and I don't think I've been this pathetic in years.
    [Sunil whistles innocently] :innocent:
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    TimT said:

    That boxing video is quite hilarious.

    I really don't think Starmer has the concept of punching down, yet.
    I like Starmer but he does not inspire, maybe with respect to our lawyer friends he is too much the lawyer and not the politician

    And who on earth are his advisors when he pulled these recent stunts

    They are quite frankly, or should be, beneath him

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

    Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

    Labour: ???

    Have to say that, from my canvassing, there's not much movement between parties but neither is there a sense of Conservatives feeling highly motivated to turn out.

    I have a sense of the past 18 months having been intensely political in one sense, but not intensely PARTY political. As partisans on this site, I think we've missed that a bit. Party politics just hasn't been on many minds.
    I'm a core Conservative, and I don't think I've been this apathetic in years.
    Scotland, Wales, and Harlepool will determine the narrative after next Thursday

    And this conservative has definitely postal voted conservative for the Senedd, (as has my good lady)

    Maybe the most predictable line I have ever written on PB !!!!!!
    I put Shaun Bailey as my second choice
    For the Senedd !!!!!!!!!!!
    Well, he would be better than Andrew RT Davies.

    And that’s not said with any notable enthusiasm for Shaun Bailey.
    Even I would be better than RT
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    Charles said:
    I like the version with more sex appeal ... :dizzy:
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    Con has shortened further for Hartlepool - now 1.53. Was 1.6 yesterday I think (pre YouGov).

    So anything leaking out?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328

    ydoethur said:

    Only 7 deaths reported.
    image

    Has to be a chance of a day over the Bank Holiday with zero deaths....

    That would be quite something for Boris to announce ahead of the voting next week.
    He could couple it with the abandoning of mask wearing for pupils in schools.

    Now *that* would be popular.

    And, given how useless they are under those circumstances, a free hit.
    The interesting thing on deaths is that we are seeing, finally, the death rates for the elderly really converging on the younger groups.

    image
    So the unvaccinated young are at the same risk levels (actually, lower) than the fully vaccinated elderly? (OK, I am being deliberately cheeky, here)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited May 2021
    MikeL said:

    Con has shortened further for Hartlepool - now 1.53. Was 1.6 yesterday I think (pre YouGov).

    So anything leaking out?

    Maybe that is why Starmer is there

    They must have their own polling surely
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328

    TimT said:

    That boxing video is quite hilarious.

    I really don't think Starmer has the concept of punching down, yet.
    I like Starmer but he does not inspire, maybe with respect to our lawyer friends he is too much the lawyer and not the politician

    And who on earth are his advisors when he pulled these recent stunts

    They are quite frankly, or should be, beneath him

    Particularly the wallpaper one. Adolescent levels of behaviour.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    MikeL said:

    Con has shortened further for Hartlepool - now 1.53. Was 1.6 yesterday I think (pre YouGov).

    So anything leaking out?

    I know the world is going mad, but 1/2 for the government taking a by-election win from the opposition, in the middle of a massive recession?
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,153

    MikeL said:

    Con has shortened further for Hartlepool - now 1.53. Was 1.6 yesterday I think (pre YouGov).

    So anything leaking out?

    Maybe that is why Starmer is there

    They must have their own polling surely
    I've said it before on here, I'll say it again. I think LAB will win in Hartlepool.

    I don't think CON will do much at all next week.

    But I might be wrong!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    MikeL said:

    Con has shortened further for Hartlepool - now 1.53. Was 1.6 yesterday I think (pre YouGov).

    So anything leaking out?

    Maybe that is why Starmer is there

    They must have their own polling surely
    I've said it before on here, I'll say it again. I think LAB will win in Hartlepool.

    I don't think CON will do much at all next week.

    But I might be wrong!
    To be honest I have no idea who will win
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

    Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

    Labour: ???

    Have to say that, from my canvassing, there's not much movement between parties but neither is there a sense of Conservatives feeling highly motivated to turn out.

    I have a sense of the past 18 months having been intensely political in one sense, but not intensely PARTY political. As partisans on this site, I think we've missed that a bit. Party politics just hasn't been on many minds.
    I'm a core Conservative, and I don't think I've been this apathetic in years.
    Scotland, Wales, and Harlepool will determine the narrative after next Thursday

    And this conservative has definitely postal voted conservative for the Senedd, (as has my good lady)

    Maybe the most predictable line I have ever written on PB !!!!!!
    I put Shaun Bailey as my second choice
    For the Senedd !!!!!!!!!!!
    Well, he would be better than Andrew RT Davies.

    And that’s not said with any notable enthusiasm for Shaun Bailey.
    Even I would be better than RT
    Don’t sell yourself short Big G. You’d be better than many politicians.

    But even macdonnell is better than RT. At least Macdonnell is pretty bright.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    Sorry - meant to say Con were 1.6 for Hartlepool pre Survation.

    ie they've shortened despite the Survation.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038

    I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

    Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

    Labour: ???

    Have to say that, from my canvassing, there's not much movement between parties but neither is there a sense of Conservatives feeling highly motivated to turn out.

    I have a sense of the past 18 months having been intensely political in one sense, but not intensely PARTY political. As partisans on this site, I think we've missed that a bit. Party politics just hasn't been on many minds.
    I'm a core Conservative, and I don't think I've been this apathetic in years.
    2019 General Election turnout: 67.3%

    2017 local elections turnout: 35.0%

    Getting on for half of those who voted in the general will now vote Can't Be Arsed Party. The question is: will it be evenly spread across the parties, or will the Tories have a better chance of getting their vote out - as a thank you for their jabs and ending the lockdowns?
    I'm not sure the electorate "do" gratitude. They move straight onto the next thing.

    One of my principle impediments to voting Conservative this time is the pre-emptive 6-month extension of the Coronavirus Act, which the Lib Dems opposed.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

    Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

    Labour: ???

    Have to say that, from my canvassing, there's not much movement between parties but neither is there a sense of Conservatives feeling highly motivated to turn out.

    I have a sense of the past 18 months having been intensely political in one sense, but not intensely PARTY political. As partisans on this site, I think we've missed that a bit. Party politics just hasn't been on many minds.
    I'm a core Conservative, and I don't think I've been this apathetic in years.
    Scotland, Wales, and Harlepool will determine the narrative after next Thursday

    And this conservative has definitely postal voted conservative for the Senedd, (as has my good lady)

    Maybe the most predictable line I have ever written on PB !!!!!!
    I put Shaun Bailey as my second choice
    Khan your first?
    Some minor candidate - Farah London I think? I went through the other manifestos and it came down to her or Count Binface
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited May 2021

    TimT said:

    That boxing video is quite hilarious.

    I really don't think Starmer has the concept of punching down, yet.
    I like Starmer but he does not inspire, maybe with respect to our lawyer friends he is too much the lawyer and not the politician

    And who on earth are his advisors when he pulled these recent stunts

    They are quite frankly, or should be, beneath him

    I think having your advisers beneath you is frowned on these days. Perhaps we should ask Michael Gove his opinion?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited May 2021
    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    That boxing video is quite hilarious.

    I really don't think Starmer has the concept of punching down, yet.
    I like Starmer but he does not inspire, maybe with respect to our lawyer friends he is too much the lawyer and not the politician

    And who on earth are his advisors when he pulled these recent stunts

    They are quite frankly, or should be, beneath him

    Particularly the wallpaper one. Adolescent levels of behaviour.
    Memories of Miliband and Balls going to Greggs for pasties.

    Starmer is supposed to be the serious one, he needs to totally ignore all the Village gossip stuff, even when his team all think it’s hillarious to do stunts like that.

    Edit: just seen the “Vote Labour” red boxing gloves. Again, don’t make an idiot of yourself trying to learn skills on camera. Be the serious one, for serious times.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    I still don't see what there is to motivate Labour voters to get off their arse and vote on Thursday.

    Tories: gratitude at being jabbed and set free

    Labour: ???

    Have to say that, from my canvassing, there's not much movement between parties but neither is there a sense of Conservatives feeling highly motivated to turn out.

    I have a sense of the past 18 months having been intensely political in one sense, but not intensely PARTY political. As partisans on this site, I think we've missed that a bit. Party politics just hasn't been on many minds.
    I'm a core Conservative, and I don't think I've been this apathetic in years.
    2019 General Election turnout: 67.3%

    2017 local elections turnout: 35.0%

    Getting on for half of those who voted in the general will now vote Can't Be Arsed Party. The question is: will it be evenly spread across the parties, or will the Tories have a better chance of getting their vote out - as a thank you for their jabs and ending the lockdowns?
    People are more motivated to get out to vote against something than for something. Indignation is a better motivator than gratitude. I just can't see "thank you" votes.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    And for Boris it is built-in to his character

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1388525446053122049?s=19
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,856
    Sandpit said:

    MikeL said:

    Con has shortened further for Hartlepool - now 1.53. Was 1.6 yesterday I think (pre YouGov).

    So anything leaking out?

    I know the world is going mad, but 1/2 for the government taking a by-election win from the opposition, in the middle of a massive recession?
    The party of Hard Leave under Mr Hard Leave to win in the capital of Hard Leave having just delivered Hard Leave and beaten Covid before the Europe that we've just Hard Left has got its boots on.

    If this is not the odds on favourite outcome in a sane world I'm not a clear thinking progressive.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    Sandpit said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    That boxing video is quite hilarious.

    I really don't think Starmer has the concept of punching down, yet.
    I like Starmer but he does not inspire, maybe with respect to our lawyer friends he is too much the lawyer and not the politician

    And who on earth are his advisors when he pulled these recent stunts

    They are quite frankly, or should be, beneath him

    Particularly the wallpaper one. Adolescent levels of behaviour.
    Memories of Miliband and Balls going to Greggs for pasties.

    Starmer is supposed to be the serious one, he needs to totally ignore all the Village gossip stuff, even when his team all think it’s hillarious to do stunts like that.

    Edit: just seen the “Vote Labour” red boxing gloves. Again, don’t make an idiot of yourself trying to learn skills on camera. Be the serious one, for serious times.
    Indeed, brand-building is about consistency of messaging - this all cuts across the brand. Idiot advisors.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Starmer's next opponent:

    image
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,597

    TimT said:

    That boxing video is quite hilarious.

    I really don't think Starmer has the concept of punching down, yet.
    I like Starmer but he does not inspire, maybe with respect to our lawyer friends he is too much the lawyer and not the politician

    And who on earth are his advisors when he pulled these recent stunts

    They are quite frankly, or should be, beneath him

    I think Johnson looks ridiculous pulling daft stunts, so for the sake of consistency, a plague on Starmer's house too.

    Starmer should watch the Peter Cook film; The Rise and Rise of Michael Rimmer. Proof if it were needed that Labour policicians and stupid stunts work out badly.

    Please cease and desist Mr Starmer!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,597

    Starmer's next opponent:

    image

    How dare you refer to Liz Truss as a paper bag!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038
    Sandpit said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    That boxing video is quite hilarious.

    I really don't think Starmer has the concept of punching down, yet.
    I like Starmer but he does not inspire, maybe with respect to our lawyer friends he is too much the lawyer and not the politician

    And who on earth are his advisors when he pulled these recent stunts

    They are quite frankly, or should be, beneath him

    Particularly the wallpaper one. Adolescent levels of behaviour.
    Memories of Miliband and Balls going to Greggs for pasties.

    Starmer is supposed to be the serious one, he needs to totally ignore all the Village gossip stuff, even when his team all think it’s hillarious to do stunts like that.

    Edit: just seen the “Vote Labour” red boxing gloves. Again, don’t make an idiot of yourself trying to learn skills on camera. Be the serious one, for serious times.
    I said similar to David Herdson on Twitter: if you're going to do a stunt like that (and these are all planned and arranged, all of them) you discuss how you want to go, and also how it could go wrong in advance. And then you practice, if you're not 100% confident.

    I suspect Starmer either didn't ask or didn't feel it would be "genuine" to do that, which just goes to show how bad he is at politics.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    I wonder if we are going to see a Hartlepool poll tonight? The last one was nearly a month ago.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,980
    The Conservative lead over Labour has narrowed sharply with five days to go until the local elections on Thursday, as the furore over Boris Johnson’s flat refurbishment starts to cut through.

    An exclusive poll for The Sunday Times shows a slump in support for the Tories after a turbulent week for the prime minister, who is facing a string of sleaze allegations. Labour is now on 39 per cent, one point behind the Tories on 40 per cent.

    More worrying for the Conservative Party is that Johnson is losing his grip on the “red wall” seats that propelled him to power. According to the poll, Labour has pushed ahead of the Tories and now leads in the party’s former heartlands in the Midlands and the north of England. In the 43 “red wall” seats that the Conservatives won at the last election, Sir Keir Starmer’s party is on 45 per cent, with the Tories on 44 per cent.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-lead-slumps-and-pm-loses-red-wall-support-five-days-before-local-elections-m7fpzdd7r
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,980
    But in the latest poll 35 per cent of people say they are less likely to vote Conservative than they were a month ago.

    According to the poll, conducted by Focaldata, 47 per cent think the prime minister should resign if he is found to have broken electoral law; 36 per cent said he should not resign.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    The Conservative lead over Labour has narrowed sharply with five days to go until the local elections on Thursday, as the furore over Boris Johnson’s flat refurbishment starts to cut through.

    An exclusive poll for The Sunday Times shows a slump in support for the Tories after a turbulent week for the prime minister, who is facing a string of sleaze allegations. Labour is now on 39 per cent, one point behind the Tories on 40 per cent.

    More worrying for the Conservative Party is that Johnson is losing his grip on the “red wall” seats that propelled him to power. According to the poll, Labour has pushed ahead of the Tories and now leads in the party’s former heartlands in the Midlands and the north of England. In the 43 “red wall” seats that the Conservatives won at the last election, Sir Keir Starmer’s party is on 45 per cent, with the Tories on 44 per cent.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-lead-slumps-and-pm-loses-red-wall-support-five-days-before-local-elections-m7fpzdd7r

    Interesting
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,415

    TimT said:

    That boxing video is quite hilarious.

    I really don't think Starmer has the concept of punching down, yet.
    I like Starmer but he does not inspire, maybe with respect to our lawyer friends he is too much the lawyer and not the politician

    And who on earth are his advisors when he pulled these recent stunts

    They are quite frankly, or should be, beneath him

    I think Johnson looks ridiculous pulling daft stunts, so for the sake of consistency, a plague on Starmer's house too.

    Starmer should watch the Peter Cook film; The Rise and Rise of Michael Rimmer. Proof if it were needed that Labour policicians and stupid stunts work out badly.

    Please cease and desist Mr Starmer!
    The stunt itself was ok but Starmer should have got some activists to do it . It is not fitting for a leader and certainly not a leader of Starmer's character.

    As for the whole flat decoration scandal , well I think Johnson probably broke some rules but what stupid rules to begin with. Why not give each PM a option to decorate, what is after all a government owned flat . at the start of each tenure at the taxpayers expense? How much valuable PM time has been wasted on this rubbish. We have a weird sense in this country of being extremely mean with the top jobs "benefits" .
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038

    The Conservative lead over Labour has narrowed sharply with five days to go until the local elections on Thursday, as the furore over Boris Johnson’s flat refurbishment starts to cut through.

    An exclusive poll for The Sunday Times shows a slump in support for the Tories after a turbulent week for the prime minister, who is facing a string of sleaze allegations. Labour is now on 39 per cent, one point behind the Tories on 40 per cent.

    More worrying for the Conservative Party is that Johnson is losing his grip on the “red wall” seats that propelled him to power. According to the poll, Labour has pushed ahead of the Tories and now leads in the party’s former heartlands in the Midlands and the north of England. In the 43 “red wall” seats that the Conservatives won at the last election, Sir Keir Starmer’s party is on 45 per cent, with the Tories on 44 per cent.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-lead-slumps-and-pm-loses-red-wall-support-five-days-before-local-elections-m7fpzdd7r

    Interesting.

    I love the John Lewis question.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    According to Twitter, #worldnakedgardeningday is trending in the United Kingdom.

    Not round this part of the United Kingdom it isn't. Bleedin' freezing. Not a single naked gardener has been spotted.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,980

    The Conservative lead over Labour has narrowed sharply with five days to go until the local elections on Thursday, as the furore over Boris Johnson’s flat refurbishment starts to cut through.

    An exclusive poll for The Sunday Times shows a slump in support for the Tories after a turbulent week for the prime minister, who is facing a string of sleaze allegations. Labour is now on 39 per cent, one point behind the Tories on 40 per cent.

    More worrying for the Conservative Party is that Johnson is losing his grip on the “red wall” seats that propelled him to power. According to the poll, Labour has pushed ahead of the Tories and now leads in the party’s former heartlands in the Midlands and the north of England. In the 43 “red wall” seats that the Conservatives won at the last election, Sir Keir Starmer’s party is on 45 per cent, with the Tories on 44 per cent.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-lead-slumps-and-pm-loses-red-wall-support-five-days-before-local-elections-m7fpzdd7r

    Interesting.

    I love the John Lewis question.
    Carrie Antoinette really has damaged Boris Johnson.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,093

    But in the latest poll 35 per cent of people say they are less likely to vote Conservative than they were a month ago.

    According to the poll, conducted by Focaldata, 47 per cent think the prime minister should resign if he is found to have broken electoral law; 36 per cent said he should not resign.

    Echoes this from yesterday, on the lying to Parliament question;

    https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1388057764186972160?s=19

    I don't know about everyone else, but the party and age splits are beginning to scare me here. As with Trump, a chunk of the population seem like they will forgive "Boris" anything.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    re the Times poll: Staggering that more people think Boris Johnson is trustworthy (39%) than think Keir Starmer is (33%). I mean, I know people don't follow things very closely, but: really?
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,973
    I dunno - if you look at that focal point poll, Johnson still remains considerable leads over Starmer, bizarrely including “most trustworthy” 😂
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,093

    According to Twitter, #worldnakedgardeningday is trending in the United Kingdom.

    Not round this part of the United Kingdom it isn't. Bleedin' freezing. Not a single naked gardener has been spotted.

    Have any of them got goosepimples instead?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Starmer's next opponent:

    image

    My money is on the bag
  • My postal vote for the various London elections has gone in.

    Was proud to vote for Khan again, who despite not being perfect in any way, was a far better choice than the useless Bailey. I also wanted to register my disgust with the Tory Party.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Sandpit said:

    MikeL said:

    Con has shortened further for Hartlepool - now 1.53. Was 1.6 yesterday I think (pre YouGov).

    So anything leaking out?

    I know the world is going mad, but 1/2 for the government taking a by-election win from the opposition, in the middle of a massive recession?
    Not a bet I would take.
  • CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 421
    Sandpit said:

    MikeL said:

    Con has shortened further for Hartlepool - now 1.53. Was 1.6 yesterday I think (pre YouGov).

    So anything leaking out?

    I know the world is going mad, but 1/2 for the government taking a by-election win from the opposition, in the middle of a massive recession?
    We are not in a recession, massive or otherwise.
  • CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 421

    My postal vote for the various London elections has gone in.

    Was proud to vote for Khan again, who despite not being perfect in any way, was a far better choice than the useless Bailey. I also wanted to register my disgust with the Tory Party.

    Arent you always disgusted by the Tory Party?
  • https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1388544433260568577

    Another lead of 1 for the Tories, something is happening
  • pingping Posts: 3,724

    TimT said:

    That boxing video is quite hilarious.

    I really don't think Starmer has the concept of punching down, yet.
    I like Starmer but he does not inspire, maybe with respect to our lawyer friends he is too much the lawyer and not the politician

    And who on earth are his advisors when he pulled these recent stunts

    They are quite frankly, or should be, beneath him

    I think Johnson looks ridiculous pulling daft stunts, so for the sake of consistency, a plague on Starmer's house too.

    Starmer should watch the Peter Cook film; The Rise and Rise of Michael Rimmer. Proof if it were needed that Labour policicians and stupid stunts work out badly.

    Please cease and desist Mr Starmer!
    The stunt itself was ok but Starmer should have got some activists to do it . It is not fitting for a leader and certainly not a leader of Starmer's character.

    As for the whole flat decoration scandal , well I think Johnson probably broke some rules but what stupid rules to begin with. Why not give each PM a option to decorate, what is after all a government owned flat . at the start of each tenure at the taxpayers expense? How much valuable PM time has been wasted on this rubbish. We have a weird sense in this country of being extremely mean with the top jobs "benefits" .
    I thought that, until I heard that the pm gets £30k per year allowance.

    That’s more than enough.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    On topic.

    This is not 2017

    Then we had a Charismatic leader with a populist, inspiring to many, manifesto, up against a boring useless cardboard cut out who could not inspire a paper bag.

    The lead was cut by almost 20pts in a month.

    Of course the boring leader is now the one trying to cut a 10pt deficit

    Hopefully he does cut the lead at least in half but Boris is Teflon Tim.
  • Opinium tonight will be fascinating.

    So we have Focaldata and Survation with 1 point leads.

    YouGov with 11 point
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    On topic.

    This is not 2017

    Then we had a Charismatic leader with a populist, inspiring to many, manifesto, up against a boring useless cardboard cut out who could not inspire a paper bag.

    The lead was cut by almost 20pts in a month.

    Of course the boring leader is now the one trying to cut a 10pt deficit

    Hopefully he does cut the lead at least in half but Boris is Teflon Tim.

    Still batting for Corbyn. Bless.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,288
    edited May 2021

    But in the latest poll 35 per cent of people say they are less likely to vote Conservative than they were a month ago.

    According to the poll, conducted by Focaldata, 47 per cent think the prime minister should resign if he is found to have broken electoral law; 36 per cent said he should not resign.

    Who are folcadata.. and what is their track record.. they might be as inaccurate as Angus Reed were...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    edited May 2021
    Can I just say - Starmer hitting that punchbag like a 6 year old girl looks W-A-Y worse than Miliband's bacon sarnie.

    Miliband's was inadvertent. Starmer's was teed up.

    With Labour Party gloves.

    *titter*
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1388544433260568577

    Another lead of 1 for the Tories, something is happening

    I'd be interested to see the working-class/middle-class numbers.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725

    The Conservative lead over Labour has narrowed sharply with five days to go until the local elections on Thursday, as the furore over Boris Johnson’s flat refurbishment starts to cut through.

    An exclusive poll for The Sunday Times shows a slump in support for the Tories after a turbulent week for the prime minister, who is facing a string of sleaze allegations. Labour is now on 39 per cent, one point behind the Tories on 40 per cent.

    More worrying for the Conservative Party is that Johnson is losing his grip on the “red wall” seats that propelled him to power. According to the poll, Labour has pushed ahead of the Tories and now leads in the party’s former heartlands in the Midlands and the north of England. In the 43 “red wall” seats that the Conservatives won at the last election, Sir Keir Starmer’s party is on 45 per cent, with the Tories on 44 per cent.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-lead-slumps-and-pm-loses-red-wall-support-five-days-before-local-elections-m7fpzdd7r

    Interesting
    Needed to happen 10 days earlier to impact on LE's and Hartlepool to the extent that it turns into a bad night for the Tories IMO
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    edited May 2021

    But in the latest poll 35 per cent of people say they are less likely to vote Conservative than they were a month ago.

    According to the poll, conducted by Focaldata, 47 per cent think the prime minister should resign if he is found to have broken electoral law; 36 per cent said he should not resign.

    Who are folcadata.. and what is their track record.. they might be as inaccurate as Angus Reed were...
    35% could have gone from "highly unlikely" to "never in a million years".

    Net effect on votes? Zero.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,538
    Not sure what is more shocking , just the one point lead for the Tories or the fact that 44% say Bozo is trustworthy ! The poll is bizarre with the results of the other questions supporting a bigger Tory lead . Regardless it does seem that people judge Bozo by different standards compared to other politicians and he can get away with things others can’t .
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,980

    But in the latest poll 35 per cent of people say they are less likely to vote Conservative than they were a month ago.

    According to the poll, conducted by Focaldata, 47 per cent think the prime minister should resign if he is found to have broken electoral law; 36 per cent said he should not resign.

    Who are folcadata.. and what is their track record.. they might be as inaccurate as Angus Reed were...
    They had an alright 2019GE with their MRP.

    They are run by people who have worked at other decent pollsters.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Starmer's bagwork making Boris look like Ali lol
This discussion has been closed.