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Arlene Foster, End Of An Era. Who Next? – politicalbetting.com
Arlene Foster, End Of An Era. Who Next? – politicalbetting.com
As We All Know Arlene Foster Has Resigned From Her DUP Leader & First Minister Duties. She Was Leader For Almost Six Years.
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Now the same is being done to the DUP.
Like an Ouroboros
Now it might be that they didn't get cracking until March and that people haven't been sticking to social distancing after being jabbed, but rather worrying that another country bet the farm on the Chinese vaccine that even the Chinese say isn't very good.
So for Edinburgh Southern we can see that Labour got 35.5% on the Constituency vote and SCons got 26.1%. Thus beating the SNP on 32.6%.
Yet on the List SCons came in first place with 29.2% of the vote and Labour 3rd with 21.9%
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpLfvBcxjyo
https://ballotbox.scot/scottish-parliament/2016-elections/lothian-sp16#con7
LD's with 42% of the Constituency Vote and only 21% of the List Vote.
Conservatives with 14% of the Constituency Vote and 25% of the List vote.
Its worrying that so many countries are using this and the Russian one (which I don't think is a dud, but well known they are struggling with production issues and reports that QA is crap and countries getting it are complaining it doesn't meet up to the original samples).
The big problem is it will give so many people an unrealistic impression they are now safe.
While the cheap alternative that is effective AZN reputation has been trashed. I note that a similar number of people to those who got blood clots with AZN, with Pfizer / Moderna have been found to suffer inflammation of the heart. Strangely no banning of its use for over 50s and under 49s.
So it will look fine to OGH but shows as broken images to everyone else.
Ben Page (Ipsos MORI):
Boris Johnson’s flat refurb won’t do much damage – polls show voters expect this of politicians
Until it is proven that something is actually illegal, it may make rather less of a difference than some might expect
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/boris-johnson-flat-refurb-damage-polls-voters-politicians-978506
The looming crisis in Brussels that no one is talking about
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/29/europe/eu-germany-greens-cdu-france-le-pen-intl-cmd/index.html
Consensus seems to be "if we don't talk about it, it will go away..."
Given the final confirmation will come after the locals, I'm wondering if they will give a thought of delaying sooner of the measures (esp. indoor mixing) by a couple of weeks (until Tuesday June 2nd) in some regions, especially Yorkshire and Humber, East Midlands and bits of the southern A1/M1 corridor.
Cases still dropping much slower in these parts, and might be better to pause a little and allow to catch up rather than go down the local lockdown route after a week or two further.
That said, hospitalisations remain encouraging, I sampled the West Yorkshire trusts and the lagged data had a decrease from 121 admissions in w/e 11/4 to 80 in w/e 18/4. If that trend continued across the next few weeks (and I expect HMG to have the latest data even if it's not collated for us lot yet), then I'd be content to go ahead.
Partly this reflects the low overall concern about corruption in Britain. While the media obsess about who paid for some curtains, voters do not see personal enrichment of politicians that is almost routine in other countries. In April 2021 some 13 per cent of the British regard political corruption as a key issue – this is well below Poland at 33 per cent and Hungary at 52 per cent – and in fact below both Canada and Germany (both 18 per cent). It is one of the lowest levels of concern anywhere. As a result the scandal so far, such as it is, may have failed to make much impact on voting intention.
The EPP led consensus in the EU is breaking down.
Which isn't a shock as it has hardly been a spectacular popular success.
The DUP runs the risk, I think, of no longer being the first or second party in Northern Ireland if it falls behind Alliance in vote share. Would Alliance would get the Deputy FM post in that case?
When UK government ministers pledged to inoculate all British adults by the autumn, they may not have been thinking about people living in some of the world's most remote places.
And yet, since early January, by plane, ship and - in one case - supermarket freezer truck, that's exactly what's been happening.
Officials say 250,000 vaccine doses have already been administered to adults in 11 of the 14 British Overseas Territories.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56923016
Yes, hard line vs soft line would be a good evolution/follow up here, along with how much it will count given the DUP's leadership processes.
So far as I can see they never had one and still haven't. Is this right? A candidate who could address this may become a statesman/woman more than a politician. Irish politics needs a few.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56924131
I really feel for these people, but unless I’m missing something, or the government is playing silly buggers, the total cost for <18m is capped at £50 per flat, per month, indefinitely.
Which sucks, especially as their flat prices will also have taken a hit. But doesn’t seem to me to be hugely unfair.
I reckon if you had a means to track the nation's mental health, it would actually be far worse then than either of the times the whole country shut down.
2) But as you say, numbers of positive tests are no longer that big a deal. Hospitalisations are key, and hospitalisations are well down. Happily, this is true even in those areas where numbers of positives remains highest.
3) While positives are relatively high in e.g/ South Yorkshire, the key word there is 'relatively'. Rates are below 100 now everywhere except Selby (and that will be short lived). Europeans are being freed with far, far higher rates than this. Back in November when we were put into tiers for the second time, only two places, I think, came under the threshold for tier 1. Now every sub-region in the country is comfortably below that level.
https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1387430754951602177
Today, I announce my candidacy for leader of the Democratic Unionist Party. I love this country and its people and I look forward to engaging with party colleagues in the days ahead.
https://twitter.com/edwinpootsmla/status/1387804847303544833?s=20
Edit: we could call it the Blair effect.
And the second round effect of everyone from hard line communists onward voting against Le Pen has been very very strong.
First round polling is pretty meaningless. She'll get hammered in the second round.
If there were a poll giving her second round primacy, that would be panic stations.
Remember, a cabinet minister went to jail for getting his wife to take his speeding points. If there was any corruption dont be under any illusion, the police would be knocking doors down.
Now one can argue convincingly that the taxpayer should not be paying for accommodation for MPs' ducks. But I can imagine troughers from Paris to Tashkent looking on in bafflement, wondering why British MPs' ambitions for personal enrichment are so limited.
CON: 44% (-)
LAB: 33% (-1)
GRN: 7% (-)
LDEM: 7% (+2)
REFUK: 3% (+1)
via
@YouGov
, 27 - 28 Apr
Chgs. w/ 22 Apr
SKS fans please explain
Clue he is f****** useless
con 48%
Lab 29%
@yougov
Starmer is doing his best trying to sell a dud brand. He's a decent, solid politician, saddled with a legacy party that no one likes any more.
His best, indeed only bet, is to wait for the Tories to fuck up so royally he gets in by default. This will eventually happen, Labour WILL win again; but it won't be Starmer that benefits, if it takes two more electoral cycles
On what metric? What on earth did she do that makes her "much better"? She spent tortuous post-Brexit years agreeing to everything the EU wanted, so she could bring home a Brexit deal which was so shit she couldn't get it through parliament. This was a result of her own initial howling errors, when she imposed red lines at the start which painted her into a terrible corner. All her own fault. She achieved nothing else in office.
As an election-winning politician she is *much better* than Boris in the same way that Worksop is "much better" than Paris, ie this is a view so eccentric only one person in the entire world believes it, and it's not even her, it's you.
Even she knows she is shit at elections, she nearly lost to JEREMY CORBYN
"much better"
lol
He couldnt hit a barn door with his boring banjo
Biden won because he was facing Trump, a dismal madman. And even then he only beat Trump because of the pandemic, which shagged the US economy; without the pandemic Trump (who still got an enormous 70m votes) would probably have cruised to victory.
If the Dems (or Labour) take away from POTUS 2020 the idea that "identity politics wins elections", then they are making an historic error
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ObgDNk2GXEk
https://twitter.com/StephenCVGraham/status/1387418615712989185
The current polling is here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_French_presidential_election
The key thing I would pick out is that neither Macron nor Le Pen are that popular and I'm sure each would like to be in the run off against the other. The risk to both is that Bertrand or someone else can get some traction and knock one of them out of the run off.
Can SKS fans ever see him making a comment like this?
President Biden
@POTUS
·
15h
United States government official
Trickle-down economics has never worked.
It’s time to grow the economy from the bottom up and middle out.
The stupid thing is this has knocked a far more serious story out of the news.
If I was to create a "sleaze-o-meter" I would rate the wallpaper story 2 or 3 out of 10. Greensill on the other hand ought to be a 7 or 8 on the scale.
https://news.yahoo.com/jimmy-kimmel-train-wreck-interview-050711983.html
I mean seriously
Apologies, all.
The same goes for Boris's comments last week h he said it. But outside the bubble you aren't judged on your twitter bio or flags, or what pronouns you use or off the cuff remarks. People judge you on what you do. That's why Boris gets credit for brexit in England and Wales, and they now hate him in NI and Scotland, where he doesn't need votes!
Now they're acting all surprised that the Boris isn't enforcing the border. Funny that. 😂
For those who don’t know him, a short introduction to the man, in his own words
(THREAD)
On the age of the Earth: “My view on the earth is that it's a young earth. My view is 4000 BC.”"
https://twitter.com/mattuthompson/status/1387674064320401409
I keep saying this, but:
House of Unelected Has-Beens!
Should have stuck with my gut that SKS would become the first Labour leader since WW2 to lose his first by election in a seat where his party was incumbent.
https://www.insidehousing.co.uk/news/news/three-quarters-of-cladding-systems-on-new-medium-rise-buildings-use-combustible-materials-data-shows-70298
Paywalled, but the article is copy pasted here;
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/mqc0vb/threequarters_of_cladding_systems_on_new/
Why can’t the government pass a law to stop this insane situation?
Had to travel to Romford, but gave me a perfect excuse to have my first bus ride (outbound) and first main line train ride (return trip) since March 12th 2020*!!!
(* Had two return trips on the Central Line's "Hainault Loop", back in September and December)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EfGDvDGE7zk
Oh happy day!
When Boris washed
My COVID away!
I mean what did they expect? Probably Theresa May style just to see the UK rollover and play dead.
Whereas you’d think that the alternative, which you might call the McIntosh strategy, of allowing some voter-friendly leader to achieve power and then take over the party once it already has power and influence, would be the better bet?
If someone tells you they're not going to do something, maybe clear that up before you sign the deal if that's so important to you?