Arlene Foster, End Of An Era. Who Next? – politicalbetting.com

System

Arlene Foster, End Of An Era. Who Next? – politicalbetting.com

As We All Know Arlene Foster Has Resigned From Her DUP Leader & First Minister Duties. She Was Leader For Almost Six Years.

Read the full story here

MikeSmithson

Test

kle4

It would be terribly unfair to request if each candidate had a 'Bigot rating'. Thanks for the info on what is what in NI.

Nemtynakht said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_xP said:

Keir Starmer has turned up at John Lewis... https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1387778062008397841/photo/1

That's f*cking brilliant.

That's Edstone level of blatant

The Edstone was the greatest political stunt of this generation, don't take its name in vain.

Foss

I seem to be unable to see the images and when I try to open them in a new tab they look to be google mail links?

IshmaelZ

Thanks But Why Initial Caps?

Alistair

The DUP gain power by undermining the UUP's attempts to govern.

Now the same is being done to the DUP.

Like an Ouroboros

FrancisUrquhart

I see Uruguay is now being hit hard by COVID....despite having vaccinated a large percentage of their population, just like Chile. And just like Chile, they are using Sinovac.

Now it might be that they didn't get cracking until March and that people haven't been sticking to social distancing after being jabbed, but rather worrying that another country bet the farm on the Chinese vaccine that even the Chinese say isn't very good.

Alistair

FTPT

HarryFreeman said:

sarissa said:

HYUFD said:

Possible SLab could not only prevent the SNP winning a majority next week under Sarwar but also overtake the SCons for second due to gains on the list (though I think the SCons will still win more constituency seats and on today's poll maybe gain Moray, which is Ross' seat at Westminster and the most Leave seat in Scotland, which would make up for them losing Remain heavy Edinburgh central to Labour or the SNP)

In 2016 the Unionist fear was that the SNP bandwagon was still gathering pace so there was a good deal of informal tactical voting, Edinburgh Central/West/South being the classic example.

That situation no longer applies (what is the antonym of a perfect storm?), so I wouldn't be surprised if the unionist tactical constituency voting is somewhat reduced.

Jackie Baillie may benefit from soft Conservatives. Tactical voting may be difficult to measure in any case.

It's really easy to measure in some places because the list vote is broken down by constituency.

So for Edinburgh Southern we can see that Labour got 35.5% on the Constituency vote and SCons got 26.1%. Thus beating the SNP on 32.6%.

Yet on the List SCons came in first place with 29.2% of the vote and Labour 3rd with 21.9%

Anabobazina

FrancisUrquhart said:

I see Uruguay is now being hit hard by COVID....despite having vaccinated a large percentage of their population, just like Chile. And just like Chile, they are using Sinovac.

It was obviously a dud from the trials wasn’t it? Why did anyone expect it to be better in the real world? Just a shit product sadly. Most probably those two nations will have to revaccinate with AZ/PF/MD/NV

BluestBlue

At this time of transition for the DUP it's worth reminding ourselves of the touching musical tribute Theresa May paid to their now-departing leader back in 2018:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpLfvBcxjyo

Alistair

Edinburgh Western is the perfect example of tactical Constituency voting

https://ballotbox.scot/scottish-parliament/2016-elections/lothian-sp16#con7

LD's with 42% of the Constituency Vote and only 21% of the List Vote.

Conservatives with 14% of the Constituency Vote and 25% of the List vote.

FrancisUrquhart

Anabobazina said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I see Uruguay is now being hit hard by COVID....despite having vaccinated a large percentage of their population, just like Chile. And just like Chile, they are using Sinovac.

It was obviously a dud from the trials wasn’t it? Why did anyone expect it to be better in the real world? Just a shit product sadly. Most probably those two nations will have to revaccinate with AZ/PF/MD/NV

Well they claimed just over 50% I believe, but since then the head honchos of that Chinese company have been sacked and a Chinese official said it was crap (before I presume being fired and sent to an internment camp).

Its worrying that so many countries are using this and the Russian one (which I don't think is a dud, but well known they are struggling with production issues and reports that QA is crap and countries getting it are complaining it doesn't meet up to the original samples).

The big problem is it will give so many people an unrealistic impression they are now safe.

While the cheap alternative that is effective AZN reputation has been trashed. I note that a similar number of people to those who got blood clots with AZN, with Pfizer / Moderna have been found to suffer inflammation of the heart. Strangely no banning of its use for over 50s and under 49s.

eek

Foss said:

I seem to be unable to see the images and when I try to open them in a new tab they look to be google mail links?

Yep - images are currently stored within a google mail account that OGH is probably the only person with access to.

So it will look fine to OGH but shows as broken images to everyone else.

CarlottaVance

FPT:

Ben Page (Ipsos MORI):

Boris Johnson’s flat refurb won’t do much damage – polls show voters expect this of politicians
Until it is proven that something is actually illegal, it may make rather less of a difference than some might expect

https://inews.co.uk/opinion/boris-johnson-flat-refurb-damage-polls-voters-politicians-978506

CarlottaVance

Also FPT: - has Twitter in a tizzy:

The looming crisis in Brussels that no one is talking about

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/29/europe/eu-germany-greens-cdu-france-le-pen-intl-cmd/index.html

Consensus seems to be "if we don't talk about it, it will go away..."

squareroot2

CarlottaVance said:

FPT:

Ben Page (Ipsos MORI):

Boris Johnson’s flat refurb won’t do much damage – polls show voters expect this of politicians
Until it is proven that something is actually illegal, it may make rather less of a difference than some might expect

https://inews.co.uk/opinion/boris-johnson-flat-refurb-damage-polls-voters-politicians-978506

Scott n paste won't paste that...

felix

CarlottaVance said:

FPT:

Ben Page (Ipsos MORI):

Boris Johnson’s flat refurb won’t do much damage – polls show voters expect this of politicians
Until it is proven that something is actually illegal, it may make rather less of a difference than some might expect

https://inews.co.uk/opinion/boris-johnson-flat-refurb-damage-polls-voters-politicians-978506

Least surprising news of the decade for those of us outside the bubble.

Pro_Rata

COVID: I'm keeping a weather eye on the stats - my current feeling is that the government may well have a genuine decision to make on whether the May 17th unlocking is applied nationwide.

Given the final confirmation will come after the locals, I'm wondering if they will give a thought of delaying sooner of the measures (esp. indoor mixing) by a couple of weeks (until Tuesday June 2nd) in some regions, especially Yorkshire and Humber, East Midlands and bits of the southern A1/M1 corridor.

Cases still dropping much slower in these parts, and might be better to pause a little and allow to catch up rather than go down the local lockdown route after a week or two further.

That said, hospitalisations remain encouraging, I sampled the West Yorkshire trusts and the lagged data had a decrease from 121 admissions in w/e 11/4 to 80 in w/e 18/4. If that trend continued across the next few weeks (and I expect HMG to have the latest data even if it's not collated for us lot yet), then I'd be content to go ahead.

Malmesbury

CarlottaVance said:

Also FPT: - has Twitter in a tizzy:

The looming crisis in Brussels that no one is talking about

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/29/europe/eu-germany-greens-cdu-france-le-pen-intl-cmd/index.html

Consensus seems to be "if we don't talk about it, it will go away..."

They seem to be thinking the Le Pen has some kind of chance at the Presidency - I don't see that even Macron can screw up enough to break through the AnybodyButTheActualFascist voting bloc for the second round.

CarlottaVance

felix said:

CarlottaVance said:

FPT:

Ben Page (Ipsos MORI):

Boris Johnson’s flat refurb won’t do much damage – polls show voters expect this of politicians
Until it is proven that something is actually illegal, it may make rather less of a difference than some might expect

https://inews.co.uk/opinion/boris-johnson-flat-refurb-damage-polls-voters-politicians-978506

Least surprising news of the decade for those of us outside the bubble.

Key is this - from the article:

Partly this reflects the low overall concern about corruption in Britain. While the media obsess about who paid for some curtains, voters do not see personal enrichment of politicians that is almost routine in other countries. In April 2021 some 13 per cent of the British regard political corruption as a key issue – this is well below Poland at 33 per cent and Hungary at 52 per cent – and in fact below both Canada and Germany (both 18 per cent). It is one of the lowest levels of concern anywhere. As a result the scandal so far, such as it is, may have failed to make much impact on voting intention.

kle4

Malmesbury said:

CarlottaVance said:

Also FPT: - has Twitter in a tizzy:

The looming crisis in Brussels that no one is talking about

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/29/europe/eu-germany-greens-cdu-france-le-pen-intl-cmd/index.html

Consensus seems to be "if we don't talk about it, it will go away..."

They seem to be thinking the Le Pen has some kind of chance at the Presidency - I don't see that even Macron can screw up enough to break through the AnybodyButTheActualFascist voting bloc for the second round.

In everyone's interests to act as though she does, to shore up that bloc, I imagine.

dixiedean

CarlottaVance said:

Also FPT: - has Twitter in a tizzy:

The looming crisis in Brussels that no one is talking about

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/29/europe/eu-germany-greens-cdu-france-le-pen-intl-cmd/index.html

Consensus seems to be "if we don't talk about it, it will go away..."

However. It can't be much of a surprise to those who have been paying attention.
The EPP led consensus in the EU is breaking down.
Which isn't a shock as it has hardly been a spectacular popular success.

Malmesbury

kle4 said:

Malmesbury said:

CarlottaVance said:

Also FPT: - has Twitter in a tizzy:

The looming crisis in Brussels that no one is talking about

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/29/europe/eu-germany-greens-cdu-france-le-pen-intl-cmd/index.html

Consensus seems to be "if we don't talk about it, it will go away..."

They seem to be thinking the Le Pen has some kind of chance at the Presidency - I don't see that even Macron can screw up enough to break through the AnybodyButTheActualFascist voting bloc for the second round.

In everyone's interests to act as though she does, to shore up that bloc, I imagine.

It's a deep level, core reaction in many French people. The threat to Macron is not getting into the second round. If the second round is Le Pen and a Zombie of Pol Pot, then ZPP would win.

Anabobazina

CarlottaVance said:

felix said:

CarlottaVance said:

FPT:

Ben Page (Ipsos MORI):

Boris Johnson’s flat refurb won’t do much damage – polls show voters expect this of politicians
Until it is proven that something is actually illegal, it may make rather less of a difference than some might expect

https://inews.co.uk/opinion/boris-johnson-flat-refurb-damage-polls-voters-politicians-978506

Least surprising news of the decade for those of us outside the bubble.

Key is this - from the article:

Partly this reflects the low overall concern about corruption in Britain. While the media obsess about who paid for some curtains, voters do not see personal enrichment of politicians that is almost routine in other countries. In April 2021 some 13 per cent of the British regard political corruption as a key issue – this is well below Poland at 33 per cent and Hungary at 52 per cent – and in fact below both Canada and Germany (both 18 per cent). It is one of the lowest levels of concern anywhere. As a result the scandal so far, such as it is, may have failed to make much impact on voting intention.

Indeed. @NickPalmer called this the other day. Most people (including me) struggle to GAFS about the Cash for Cushions Affair. It’s trivial, albeit occasionally amusing.

FF43

It looks to me the DUP vote is fragmenting towards TUV, Alliance and, above all, Will Not Vote. Hence the perceived need to shore up the base, by being hard-line on the Protocol etc.

The DUP runs the risk, I think, of no longer being the first or second party in Northern Ireland if it falls behind Alliance in vote share. Would Alliance would get the Deputy FM post in that case?

CarlottaVance

The Empire Strikes Back:

When UK government ministers pledged to inoculate all British adults by the autumn, they may not have been thinking about people living in some of the world's most remote places.

And yet, since early January, by plane, ship and - in one case - supermarket freezer truck, that's exactly what's been happening.

Officials say 250,000 vaccine doses have already been administered to adults in 11 of the 14 British Overseas Territories.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56923016

Pro_Rata

kle4 said:

It would be terribly unfair to request if each candidate had a 'Bigot rating'. Thanks for the info on what is what in NI.

Nemtynakht said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_xP said:

Keir Starmer has turned up at John Lewis... https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1387778062008397841/photo/1

That's f*cking brilliant.

That's Edstone level of blatant

The Edstone was the greatest political stunt of this generation, don't take its name in vain.

Fat Fingered you off topic for a moment there.

Yes, hard line vs soft line would be a good evolution/follow up here, along with how much it will count given the DUP's leadership processes.

algarkirk

There is really only one thing we need from the DUP candidates. The DUP supported Brexit and rejected both the unsuccessful and successful solutions to the problem of implementing it. Historically 'What did they actually want as a solution' (so far a closely guarded secret) is interesting in itself and perhaps the candidates can help. The more urgent question now is 'What is the DUP policy for implementing Brexit as of right now?' Unicorns not allowed.

So far as I can see they never had one and still haven't. Is this right? A candidate who could address this may become a statesman/woman more than a politician. Irish politics needs a few.

Malmesbury

UK cases by specimen date

Malmesbury

UK case summary

Malmesbury

UK Hospitals

ping

Cladding

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56924131

I really feel for these people, but unless I’m missing something, or the government is playing silly buggers, the total cost for <18m is capped at £50 per flat, per month, indefinitely.

Which sucks, especially as their flat prices will also have taken a hit. But doesn’t seem to me to be hugely unfair.

Malmesbury

UK deaths

Malmesbury

UK R

MattW

Malmesbury said:

CarlottaVance said:

Also FPT: - has Twitter in a tizzy:

The looming crisis in Brussels that no one is talking about

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/29/europe/eu-germany-greens-cdu-france-le-pen-intl-cmd/index.html

Consensus seems to be "if we don't talk about it, it will go away..."

They seem to be thinking the Le Pen has some kind of chance at the Presidency - I don't see that even Macron can screw up enough to break through the AnybodyButTheActualFascist voting bloc for the second round.

She has been repositioning. Plus:

Cookie

Pro_Rata said:

COVID: I'm keeping a weather eye on the stats - my current feeling is that the government may well have a genuine decision to make on whether the May 17th unlocking is applied nationwide.

Given the final confirmation will come after the locals, I'm wondering if they will give a thought of delaying sooner of the measures (esp. indoor mixing) by a couple of weeks (until Tuesday June 2nd) in some regions, especially Yorkshire and Humber, East Midlands and bits of the southern A1/M1 corridor.

Cases still dropping much slower in these parts, and might be better to pause a little and allow to catch up rather than go down the local lockdown route after a week or two further.

That said, hospitalisations remain encouraging, I sampled the West Yorkshire trusts and the lagged data had a decrease from 121 admissions in w/e 11/4 to 80 in w/e 18/4. If that trend continued across the next few weeks (and I expect HMG to have the latest data even if it's not collated for us lot yet), then I'd be content to go ahead.

1) I think - and I think government thinks - that the experience in the second half of last year where different rules were applied to different places was so awful that they really won't want to go down that road again if they can help it. Utterly divisive and uncertainties everywhere.
I reckon if you had a means to track the nation's mental health, it would actually be far worse then than either of the times the whole country shut down.

2) But as you say, numbers of positive tests are no longer that big a deal. Hospitalisations are key, and hospitalisations are well down. Happily, this is true even in those areas where numbers of positives remains highest.

3) While positives are relatively high in e.g/ South Yorkshire, the key word there is 'relatively'. Rates are below 100 now everywhere except Selby (and that will be short lived). Europeans are being freed with far, far higher rates than this. Back in November when we were put into tiers for the second time, only two places, I think, came under the threshold for tier 1. Now every sub-region in the country is comfortably below that level.
https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1387430754951602177

CarlottaVance

Just what the DUP needs - a Keir Starmer lookalike:

Today, I announce my candidacy for leader of the Democratic Unionist Party. I love this country and its people and I look forward to engaging with party colleagues in the days ahead.

https://twitter.com/edwinpootsmla/status/1387804847303544833?s=20

Malmesbury

Age related data

MattW

CarlottaVance said:

The Empire Strikes Back:

When UK government ministers pledged to inoculate all British adults by the autumn, they may not have been thinking about people living in some of the world's most remote places.

And yet, since early January, by plane, ship and - in one case - supermarket freezer truck, that's exactly what's been happening.

Officials say 250,000 vaccine doses have already been administered to adults in 11 of the 14 British Overseas Territories.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56923016

... which everyone except the BBC apparently noticed as it happened.

CursingStone

Anabobazina said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I see Uruguay is now being hit hard by COVID....despite having vaccinated a large percentage of their population, just like Chile. And just like Chile, they are using Sinovac.

It was obviously a dud from the trials wasn’t it? Why did anyone expect it to be better in the real world? Just a shit product sadly. Most probably those two nations will have to revaccinate with AZ/PF/MD/NV

It's murder trying to get a refund through alibaba.

Malmesbury

Age related data scaled to 100k per age group

Malmesbury

UK vaccinations

Malmesbury

CFR

MightyAlex

Malmesbury said:

CarlottaVance said:

Also FPT: - has Twitter in a tizzy:

The looming crisis in Brussels that no one is talking about

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/29/europe/eu-germany-greens-cdu-france-le-pen-intl-cmd/index.html

Consensus seems to be "if we don't talk about it, it will go away..."

They seem to be thinking the Le Pen has some kind of chance at the Presidency - I don't see that even Macron can screw up enough to break through the AnybodyButTheActualFascist voting bloc for the second round.

I'm a little concerned that its the ones who abstain that may swing it to NF. Macron has not been popular with the left so not turning up is a threat in itself.

Edit: we could call it the Blair effect.

dixiedean

algarkirk said:

There is really only one thing we need from the DUP candidates. The DUP supported Brexit and rejected both the unsuccessful and successful solutions to the problem of implementing it. Historically 'What did they actually want as a solution' (so far a closely guarded secret) is interesting in itself and perhaps the candidates can help. The more urgent question now is 'What is the DUP policy for implementing Brexit as of right now?' Unicorns not allowed.

So far as I can see they never had one and still haven't. Is this right? A candidate who could address this may become a statesman/woman more than a politician. Irish politics needs a few.

Don't hold your breath for such a candidate.

Malmesbury

MattW said:

Malmesbury said:

CarlottaVance said:

Also FPT: - has Twitter in a tizzy:

The looming crisis in Brussels that no one is talking about

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/29/europe/eu-germany-greens-cdu-france-le-pen-intl-cmd/index.html

Consensus seems to be "if we don't talk about it, it will go away..."

They seem to be thinking the Le Pen has some kind of chance at the Presidency - I don't see that even Macron can screw up enough to break through the AnybodyButTheActualFascist voting bloc for the second round.

She has been repositioning. Plus:

Yes, she's riding high, but there is a ceiling for people - at least up to now - who will vote for anything labelled "Le Pen"

And the second round effect of everyone from hard line communists onward voting against Le Pen has been very very strong.

Philip_Thompson

MattW said:

Malmesbury said:

CarlottaVance said:

Also FPT: - has Twitter in a tizzy:

The looming crisis in Brussels that no one is talking about

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/29/europe/eu-germany-greens-cdu-france-le-pen-intl-cmd/index.html

Consensus seems to be "if we don't talk about it, it will go away..."

They seem to be thinking the Le Pen has some kind of chance at the Presidency - I don't see that even Macron can screw up enough to break through the AnybodyButTheActualFascist voting bloc for the second round.

She has been repositioning. Plus:

Plus what?

First round polling is pretty meaningless. She'll get hammered in the second round.

If there were a poll giving her second round primacy, that would be panic stations.

CursingStone

CarlottaVance said:

felix said:

CarlottaVance said:

FPT:

Ben Page (Ipsos MORI):

Boris Johnson’s flat refurb won’t do much damage – polls show voters expect this of politicians
Until it is proven that something is actually illegal, it may make rather less of a difference than some might expect

https://inews.co.uk/opinion/boris-johnson-flat-refurb-damage-polls-voters-politicians-978506

Least surprising news of the decade for those of us outside the bubble.

Key is this - from the article:

Partly this reflects the low overall concern about corruption in Britain. While the media obsess about who paid for some curtains, voters do not see personal enrichment of politicians that is almost routine in other countries. In April 2021 some 13 per cent of the British regard political corruption as a key issue – this is well below Poland at 33 per cent and Hungary at 52 per cent – and in fact below both Canada and Germany (both 18 per cent). It is one of the lowest levels of concern anywhere. As a result the scandal so far, such as it is, may have failed to make much impact on voting intention.

Low overall corruption because it is quite rare.. Lots of innuendo and conflating of different things and shouting loudly about pub landlords and Tory donors etc. But politicians in the UK are not involved in procurement. Any minister who tried to wrestle such an 'operational' matter from their senior civil servants would ordinarily be put in their place.
Remember, a cabinet minister went to jail for getting his wife to take his speeding points. If there was any corruption dont be under any illusion, the police would be knocking doors down.

Cookie

Anabobazina said:

CarlottaVance said:

felix said:

CarlottaVance said:

FPT:

Ben Page (Ipsos MORI):

Boris Johnson’s flat refurb won’t do much damage – polls show voters expect this of politicians
Until it is proven that something is actually illegal, it may make rather less of a difference than some might expect

https://inews.co.uk/opinion/boris-johnson-flat-refurb-damage-polls-voters-politicians-978506

Least surprising news of the decade for those of us outside the bubble.

Key is this - from the article:

Partly this reflects the low overall concern about corruption in Britain. While the media obsess about who paid for some curtains, voters do not see personal enrichment of politicians that is almost routine in other countries. In April 2021 some 13 per cent of the British regard political corruption as a key issue – this is well below Poland at 33 per cent and Hungary at 52 per cent – and in fact below both Canada and Germany (both 18 per cent). It is one of the lowest levels of concern anywhere. As a result the scandal so far, such as it is, may have failed to make much impact on voting intention.

Indeed. @NickPalmer called this the other day. Most people (including me) struggle to GAFS about the Cash for Cushions Affair. It’s trivial, albeit occasionally amusing.

What does everyone remember from last time around? The duck house.
Now one can argue convincingly that the taxpayer should not be paying for accommodation for MPs' ducks. But I can imagine troughers from Paris to Tashkent looking on in bafflement, wondering why British MPs' ambitions for personal enrichment are so limited.

sarissa

MattW said:

Malmesbury said:

CarlottaVance said:

Also FPT: - has Twitter in a tizzy:

The looming crisis in Brussels that no one is talking about

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/29/europe/eu-germany-greens-cdu-france-le-pen-intl-cmd/index.html

Consensus seems to be "if we don't talk about it, it will go away..."

They seem to be thinking the Le Pen has some kind of chance at the Presidency - I don't see that even Macron can screw up enough to break through the AnybodyButTheActualFascist voting bloc for the second round.

She has been repositioning. Plus:

Not such a Melénchon-y baby?

bigjohnowls

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 44% (-)
LAB: 33% (-1)
GRN: 7% (-)
LDEM: 7% (+2)
REFUK: 3% (+1)

via
@YouGov
, 27 - 28 Apr
Chgs. w/ 22 Apr

SKS fans please explain

Clue he is f****** useless

CursingStone

Working Class vote
con 48%
Lab 29%
@yougov

londonpubman

bigjohnowls said:

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 44% (-)
LAB: 33% (-1)
GRN: 7% (-)
LDEM: 7% (+2)
REFUK: 3% (+1)

via
@YouGov
, 27 - 28 Apr
Chgs. w/ 22 Apr

SKS fans please explain

Clue he is f****** useless

But there are so many on here who thought he was on top at PMQs yesterday! Clearly they can't all be wrong!

ydoethur

bigjohnowls said:

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 44% (-)
LAB: 33% (-1)
GRN: 7% (-)
LDEM: 7% (+2)
REFUK: 3% (+1)

via
@YouGov
, 27 - 28 Apr
Chgs. w/ 22 Apr

SKS fans please explain

Clue he is f****** useless

I don’t remember you saying that about Jeremy Corbyn, and he had much worse numbers against a weaker albeit much better PM.

bigjohnowls

Malmesbury said:

MattW said:

Malmesbury said:

CarlottaVance said:

Also FPT: - has Twitter in a tizzy:

The looming crisis in Brussels that no one is talking about

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/29/europe/eu-germany-greens-cdu-france-le-pen-intl-cmd/index.html

Consensus seems to be "if we don't talk about it, it will go away..."

They seem to be thinking the Le Pen has some kind of chance at the Presidency - I don't see that even Macron can screw up enough to break through the AnybodyButTheActualFascist voting bloc for the second round.

She has been repositioning. Plus:

Yes, she's riding high, but there is a ceiling for people - at least up to now - who will vote for anything labelled "Le Pen"

And the second round effect of everyone from hard line communists onward voting against Le Pen has been very very strong.

Melenchon would get my vote

Leon

bigjohnowls said:

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 44% (-)
LAB: 33% (-1)
GRN: 7% (-)
LDEM: 7% (+2)
REFUK: 3% (+1)

via
@YouGov
, 27 - 28 Apr
Chgs. w/ 22 Apr

SKS fans please explain

Clue he is f****** useless

He's not fucking useless, it's the Left that is fucking useless, eg consumed with insane identity politics when no one else gives a damn. And apparently devoid of any better ideas than the Tories

Starmer is doing his best trying to sell a dud brand. He's a decent, solid politician, saddled with a legacy party that no one likes any more.

His best, indeed only bet, is to wait for the Tories to fuck up so royally he gets in by default. This will eventually happen, Labour WILL win again; but it won't be Starmer that benefits, if it takes two more electoral cycles

bigjohnowls

ydoethur said:

bigjohnowls said:

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 44% (-)
LAB: 33% (-1)
GRN: 7% (-)
LDEM: 7% (+2)
REFUK: 3% (+1)

via
@YouGov
, 27 - 28 Apr
Chgs. w/ 22 Apr

SKS fans please explain

Clue he is f****** useless

I don’t remember you saying that about Jeremy Corbyn, and he had much worse numbers against a weaker albeit much better PM.

40% in 2017 was Labours high point SKS will never surpass it IMO

bigjohnowls

CursingStone said:

Working Class vote
con 48%
Lab 29%
@yougov

SKS fans please explain

contrarian

Leon said:

bigjohnowls said:

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 44% (-)
LAB: 33% (-1)
GRN: 7% (-)
LDEM: 7% (+2)
REFUK: 3% (+1)

via
@YouGov
, 27 - 28 Apr
Chgs. w/ 22 Apr

SKS fans please explain

Clue he is f****** useless

He's not fucking useless, it's the Left that is fucking useless, eg consumed with insane identity politics when no one else gives a damn. And apparently devoid of any better ideas than the Tories

Starmer is doing his best trying to sell a dud brand. He's a decent, solid politician, saddled with a legacy party that no one likes any more.

His best, indeed only bet, is to wait for the Tories to fuck up so royally he gets in by default. This will eventually happen, Labour WILL win again; but it won't be Starmer that benefits, if it takes two more electoral cycles

Trouble is Biden swept America with this 'insane identity politics' just last November. There, they do give a damn, it seems.

Leon

ydoethur said:

bigjohnowls said:

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 44% (-)
LAB: 33% (-1)
GRN: 7% (-)
LDEM: 7% (+2)
REFUK: 3% (+1)

via
@YouGov
, 27 - 28 Apr
Chgs. w/ 22 Apr

SKS fans please explain

Clue he is f****** useless

I don’t remember you saying that about Jeremy Corbyn, and he had much worse numbers against a weaker albeit much better PM.

Are you actually claiming Theresa May is a "much better PM" than Boris?

On what metric? What on earth did she do that makes her "much better"? She spent tortuous post-Brexit years agreeing to everything the EU wanted, so she could bring home a Brexit deal which was so shit she couldn't get it through parliament. This was a result of her own initial howling errors, when she imposed red lines at the start which painted her into a terrible corner. All her own fault. She achieved nothing else in office.

As an election-winning politician she is *much better* than Boris in the same way that Worksop is "much better" than Paris, ie this is a view so eccentric only one person in the entire world believes it, and it's not even her, it's you.

Even she knows she is shit at elections, she nearly lost to JEREMY CORBYN

"much better"

lol

bigjohnowls

londonpubman said:

bigjohnowls said:

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 44% (-)
LAB: 33% (-1)
GRN: 7% (-)
LDEM: 7% (+2)
REFUK: 3% (+1)

via
@YouGov
, 27 - 28 Apr
Chgs. w/ 22 Apr

SKS fans please explain

Clue he is f****** useless

But there are so many on here who thought he was on top at PMQs yesterday! Clearly they can't all be wrong!

Well you know what thought did

He couldnt hit a barn door with his boring banjo

Leon

contrarian said:

Leon said:

bigjohnowls said:

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 44% (-)
LAB: 33% (-1)
GRN: 7% (-)
LDEM: 7% (+2)
REFUK: 3% (+1)

via
@YouGov
, 27 - 28 Apr
Chgs. w/ 22 Apr

SKS fans please explain

Clue he is f****** useless

He's not fucking useless, it's the Left that is fucking useless, eg consumed with insane identity politics when no one else gives a damn. And apparently devoid of any better ideas than the Tories

Starmer is doing his best trying to sell a dud brand. He's a decent, solid politician, saddled with a legacy party that no one likes any more.

His best, indeed only bet, is to wait for the Tories to fuck up so royally he gets in by default. This will eventually happen, Labour WILL win again; but it won't be Starmer that benefits, if it takes two more electoral cycles

Trouble is Biden swept America with this 'insane identity politics' just last November. There, they do give a damn, it seems.

This is a false reading, in my opinion, and it is potentially deluding the Left

Biden won because he was facing Trump, a dismal madman. And even then he only beat Trump because of the pandemic, which shagged the US economy; without the pandemic Trump (who still got an enormous 70m votes) would probably have cruised to victory.

If the Dems (or Labour) take away from POTUS 2020 the idea that "identity politics wins elections", then they are making an historic error

williamglenn

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

MattW said:

Malmesbury said:

CarlottaVance said:

Also FPT: - has Twitter in a tizzy:

The looming crisis in Brussels that no one is talking about

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/29/europe/eu-germany-greens-cdu-france-le-pen-intl-cmd/index.html

Consensus seems to be "if we don't talk about it, it will go away..."

They seem to be thinking the Le Pen has some kind of chance at the Presidency - I don't see that even Macron can screw up enough to break through the AnybodyButTheActualFascist voting bloc for the second round.

She has been repositioning. Plus:

Yes, she's riding high, but there is a ceiling for people - at least up to now - who will vote for anything labelled "Le Pen"

And the second round effect of everyone from hard line communists onward voting against Le Pen has been very very strong.

Melenchon would get my vote

"La République, c'est moi!"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ObgDNk2GXEk

bigjohnowls

People in greenhouses should not throw stones

https://twitter.com/StephenCVGraham/status/1387418615712989185

GarethoftheVale2

sarissa said:

MattW said:

Malmesbury said:

CarlottaVance said:

Also FPT: - has Twitter in a tizzy:

The looming crisis in Brussels that no one is talking about

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/29/europe/eu-germany-greens-cdu-france-le-pen-intl-cmd/index.html

Consensus seems to be "if we don't talk about it, it will go away..."

They seem to be thinking the Le Pen has some kind of chance at the Presidency - I don't see that even Macron can screw up enough to break through the AnybodyButTheActualFascist voting bloc for the second round.

She has been repositioning. Plus:

Not such a Melénchon-y baby?

That chart is from 2017. Fillon fell away when it came out he employed his wife.

The current polling is here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_French_presidential_election

The key thing I would pick out is that neither Macron nor Le Pen are that popular and I'm sure each would like to be in the run off against the other. The risk to both is that Bertrand or someone else can get some traction and knock one of them out of the run off.

bigjohnowls

Leon said:

contrarian said:

Leon said:

bigjohnowls said:

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 44% (-)
LAB: 33% (-1)
GRN: 7% (-)
LDEM: 7% (+2)
REFUK: 3% (+1)

via
@YouGov
, 27 - 28 Apr
Chgs. w/ 22 Apr

SKS fans please explain

Clue he is f****** useless

He's not fucking useless, it's the Left that is fucking useless, eg consumed with insane identity politics when no one else gives a damn. And apparently devoid of any better ideas than the Tories

Starmer is doing his best trying to sell a dud brand. He's a decent, solid politician, saddled with a legacy party that no one likes any more.

His best, indeed only bet, is to wait for the Tories to fuck up so royally he gets in by default. This will eventually happen, Labour WILL win again; but it won't be Starmer that benefits, if it takes two more electoral cycles

Trouble is Biden swept America with this 'insane identity politics' just last November. There, they do give a damn, it seems.

This is a false reading, in my opinion, and it is potentially deluding the Left

Biden won because he was facing Trump, a dismal madman. And even then he only beat Trump because of the pandemic, which shagged the US economy; without the pandemic Trump (who still got an enormous 70m votes) would probably have cruised to victory.

If the Dems (or Labour) take away from POTUS 2020 the idea that "identity politics wins elections", then they are making an historic error

Good stuff from Biden.

Can SKS fans ever see him making a comment like this?

President Biden
@POTUS
·
15h

United States government official
Trickle-down economics has never worked.

It’s time to grow the economy from the bottom up and middle out.

Tres

Why Is Every Letter Capitalised?

IanB2

FF43 said:

It looks to me the DUP vote is fragmenting towards TUV, Alliance and, above all, Will Not Vote. Hence the perceived need to shore up the base, by being hard-line on the Protocol etc.

The DUP runs the risk, I think, of no longer being the first or second party in Northern Ireland if it falls behind Alliance in vote share. Would Alliance would get the Deputy FM post in that case?

The risk the DUP faces is the one with which other parties are familiar - to win the crown the candidates will have to chase the base, and then find themselves adrift with the moderate voters that their party needs to succeed.

GarethoftheVale2

BBC 6 o'clock news still going on about wallpaper.

The stupid thing is this has knocked a far more serious story out of the news.

If I was to create a "sleaze-o-meter" I would rate the wallpaper story 2 or 3 out of 10. Greensill on the other hand ought to be a 7 or 8 on the scale.

TimT

Interesting that Jimmy Kimmel's show last night started with a hat tip to Ed Balls Day (10th anniversary edition)

https://news.yahoo.com/jimmy-kimmel-train-wreck-interview-050711983.html

Andy_JS

GarethoftheVale2 said:

BBC 6 o'clock news still going on about wallpaper.

The stupid thing is this has knocked a far more serious story out of the news.

If I was to create a "sleaze-o-meter" I would rate the wallpaper story 2 or 3 out of 10. Greensill on the other hand ought to be a 7 or 8 on the scale.

When I watch the news I want to hear about Covid-19 in India, Poland, Brazil, etc. Not wallpaper.

bigjohnowls

BBC News "Sport England found physical activity dropped in 2020"

I mean seriously

ydoethur

Leon said:

ydoethur said:

bigjohnowls said:

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 44% (-)
LAB: 33% (-1)
GRN: 7% (-)
LDEM: 7% (+2)
REFUK: 3% (+1)

via
@YouGov
, 27 - 28 Apr
Chgs. w/ 22 Apr

SKS fans please explain

Clue he is f****** useless

I don’t remember you saying that about Jeremy Corbyn, and he had much worse numbers against a weaker albeit much better PM.

Are you actually claiming Theresa May is a "much better PM" than Boris?

On what metric? What on earth did she do that makes her "much better"? She spent tortuous post-Brexit years agreeing to everything the EU wanted, so she could bring home a Brexit deal which was so shit she couldn't get it through parliament. This was a result of her own initial howling errors, when she imposed red lines at the start which painted her into a terrible corner. All her own fault. She achieved nothing else in office.

As an election-winning politician she is *much better* than Boris in the same way that Worksop is "much better" than Paris, ie this is a view so eccentric only one person in the entire world believes it, and it's not even her, it's you.

Even she knows she is shit at elections, she nearly lost to JEREMY CORBYN

"much better"

lol

Actually, the person who gave the EU what they wanted - a border in the Irish Sea - was Boris Johnson.

kle4

Malmesbury said:

MattW said:

Malmesbury said:

CarlottaVance said:

Also FPT: - has Twitter in a tizzy:

The looming crisis in Brussels that no one is talking about

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/29/europe/eu-germany-greens-cdu-france-le-pen-intl-cmd/index.html

Consensus seems to be "if we don't talk about it, it will go away..."

They seem to be thinking the Le Pen has some kind of chance at the Presidency - I don't see that even Macron can screw up enough to break through the AnybodyButTheActualFascist voting bloc for the second round.

She has been repositioning. Plus:

Yes, she's riding high, but there is a ceiling for people - at least up to now - who will vote for anything labelled "Le Pen"

And the second round effect of everyone from hard line communists onward voting against Le Pen has been very very strong.

Well, she got just under 34% in 2017, up from the just under 18% her dad got in 2002, so as observed before based on incontrovertible trends a member of the Le Pen family should get exactly 50% in the 2032 election, so that one is on a knife's edge.

Andy_JS

CursingStone said:

Working Class vote
con 48%
Lab 29%
@yougov

Explains Hartlepool.

TimT

williamglenn said:

bigjohnowls said:

Malmesbury said:

MattW said:

Malmesbury said:

CarlottaVance said:

Also FPT: - has Twitter in a tizzy:

The looming crisis in Brussels that no one is talking about

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/29/europe/eu-germany-greens-cdu-france-le-pen-intl-cmd/index.html

Consensus seems to be "if we don't talk about it, it will go away..."

They seem to be thinking the Le Pen has some kind of chance at the Presidency - I don't see that even Macron can screw up enough to break through the AnybodyButTheActualFascist voting bloc for the second round.

She has been repositioning. Plus:

Yes, she's riding high, but there is a ceiling for people - at least up to now - who will vote for anything labelled "Le Pen"

And the second round effect of everyone from hard line communists onward voting against Le Pen has been very very strong.

Melenchon would get my vote

"La République, c'est moi!"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ObgDNk2GXEk

What is the backstory to this?

MattW

GarethoftheVale2 said:

sarissa said:

MattW said:

Malmesbury said:

CarlottaVance said:

Also FPT: - has Twitter in a tizzy:

The looming crisis in Brussels that no one is talking about

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/29/europe/eu-germany-greens-cdu-france-le-pen-intl-cmd/index.html

Consensus seems to be "if we don't talk about it, it will go away..."

They seem to be thinking the Le Pen has some kind of chance at the Presidency - I don't see that even Macron can screw up enough to break through the AnybodyButTheActualFascist voting bloc for the second round.

She has been repositioning. Plus:

Not such a Melénchon-y baby?

That chart is from 2017. Fillon fell away when it came out he employed his wife.

The current polling is here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_French_presidential_election

The key thing I would pick out is that neither Macron nor Le Pen are that popular and I'm sure each would like to be in the run off against the other. The risk to both is that Bertrand or someone else can get some traction and knock one of them out of the run off.

Ooops.

Apologies, all.

Nemtynakht

CarlottaVance said:

felix said:

CarlottaVance said:

FPT:

Ben Page (Ipsos MORI):

Boris Johnson’s flat refurb won’t do much damage – polls show voters expect this of politicians
Until it is proven that something is actually illegal, it may make rather less of a difference than some might expect

https://inews.co.uk/opinion/boris-johnson-flat-refurb-damage-polls-voters-politicians-978506

Least surprising news of the decade for those of us outside the bubble.

Key is this - from the article:

Partly this reflects the low overall concern about corruption in Britain. While the media obsess about who paid for some curtains, voters do not see personal enrichment of politicians that is almost routine in other countries. In April 2021 some 13 per cent of the British regard political corruption as a key issue – this is well below Poland at 33 per cent and Hungary at 52 per cent – and in fact below both Canada and Germany (both 18 per cent). It is one of the lowest levels of concern anywhere. As a result the scandal so far, such as it is, may have failed to make much impact on voting intention.

Whoever has dubbed it cash for curtains is a genius. This sums up why it is not a big issue outside the bubble and the Boris haters. Cash for questions and cash for peerages were significant questions around the democratic process. This is the Laura Ashley of scandals.

The same goes for Boris's comments last week h he said it. But outside the bubble you aren't judged on your twitter bio or flags, or what pronouns you use or off the cuff remarks. People judge you on what you do. That's why Boris gets credit for brexit in England and Wales, and they now hate him in NI and Scotland, where he doesn't need votes!

IanB2

Leon said:

contrarian said:

Leon said:

bigjohnowls said:

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 44% (-)
LAB: 33% (-1)
GRN: 7% (-)
LDEM: 7% (+2)
REFUK: 3% (+1)

via
@YouGov
, 27 - 28 Apr
Chgs. w/ 22 Apr

SKS fans please explain

Clue he is f****** useless

He's not fucking useless, it's the Left that is fucking useless, eg consumed with insane identity politics when no one else gives a damn. And apparently devoid of any better ideas than the Tories

Starmer is doing his best trying to sell a dud brand. He's a decent, solid politician, saddled with a legacy party that no one likes any more.

His best, indeed only bet, is to wait for the Tories to fuck up so royally he gets in by default. This will eventually happen, Labour WILL win again; but it won't be Starmer that benefits, if it takes two more electoral cycles

Trouble is Biden swept America with this 'insane identity politics' just last November. There, they do give a damn, it seems.

This is a false reading, in my opinion, and it is potentially deluding the Left

Biden won because he was facing Trump, a dismal madman. And even then he only beat Trump because of the pandemic, which shagged the US economy; without the pandemic Trump (who still got an enormous 70m votes) would probably have cruised to victory.

If the Dems (or Labour) take away from POTUS 2020 the idea that "identity politics wins elections", then they are making an historic error

When it comes to advising on dismal madmen, the quality of your advice is unrivalled.

Philip_Thompson

ydoethur said:

Leon said:

ydoethur said:

bigjohnowls said:

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 44% (-)
LAB: 33% (-1)
GRN: 7% (-)
LDEM: 7% (+2)
REFUK: 3% (+1)

via
@YouGov
, 27 - 28 Apr
Chgs. w/ 22 Apr

SKS fans please explain

Clue he is f****** useless

I don’t remember you saying that about Jeremy Corbyn, and he had much worse numbers against a weaker albeit much better PM.

Are you actually claiming Theresa May is a "much better PM" than Boris?

On what metric? What on earth did she do that makes her "much better"? She spent tortuous post-Brexit years agreeing to everything the EU wanted, so she could bring home a Brexit deal which was so shit she couldn't get it through parliament. This was a result of her own initial howling errors, when she imposed red lines at the start which painted her into a terrible corner. All her own fault. She achieved nothing else in office.

As an election-winning politician she is *much better* than Boris in the same way that Worksop is "much better" than Paris, ie this is a view so eccentric only one person in the entire world believes it, and it's not even her, it's you.

Even she knows she is shit at elections, she nearly lost to JEREMY CORBYN

"much better"

lol

Actually, the person who gave the EU what they wanted - a border in the Irish Sea - was Boris Johnson.

That will be the same Boris Johnson who said he wouldn't enforce the border, prior to the deal being signed, and they entrusted enforcing that border to . . . Boris Johnson.

Now they're acting all surprised that the Boris isn't enforcing the border. Funny that. 😂

CursingStone

Andy_JS said:

CursingStone said:

Working Class vote
con 48%
Lab 29%
@yougov

Explains Hartlepool.

If the poll is reflective of the vote share next week it will be a clean gain.

Andy_JS

"So Edwin Poots, darling of the traditionalists, is favourite to be the next DUP leader.

For those who don’t know him, a short introduction to the man, in his own words
(THREAD)
On the age of the Earth: “My view on the earth is that it's a young earth. My view is 4000 BC.”"

https://twitter.com/mattuthompson/status/1387674064320401409

Sunil_Prasannan

"As Nigel [Dodds] Is Currently In The House Of Lords"

I keep saying this, but:

House of Unelected Has-Beens!

TimT

Malmesbury said:

UK vaccinations

So the highest vaccination total to date reported on a Thursday? If so, is that as good news going forwards as it seems?

bigjohnowls

Andy_JS said:

CursingStone said:

Working Class vote
con 48%
Lab 29%
@yougov

Explains Hartlepool.

I am green on both Candidates in Hartlepool

Should have stuck with my gut that SKS would become the first Labour leader since WW2 to lose his first by election in a seat where his party was incumbent.

IanB2

Andy_JS said:

"So Edwin Poots, darling of the traditionalists, is favourite to be the next DUP leader.

For those who don’t know him, a short introduction to the man, in his own words
(THREAD)
On the age of the Earth: “My view on the earth is that it's a young earth. My view is 4000 BC.”"

https://twitter.com/mattuthompson/status/1387674064320401409

Go directly to Sinn Fein First Minister

ping

Body is 1 character too short.

ping said:

Cladding

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56924131

I really feel for these people, but unless I’m missing something, or the government is playing silly buggers, the total cost for <18m is capped at £50 per flat, per month, indefinitely.

Which sucks, especially as their flat prices will also have taken a hit. But doesn’t seem to me to be hugely unfair.</p>

I missed this from a couple of weeks ago;

https://www.insidehousing.co.uk/news/news/three-quarters-of-cladding-systems-on-new-medium-rise-buildings-use-combustible-materials-data-shows-70298

Paywalled, but the article is copy pasted here;

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/mqc0vb/threequarters_of_cladding_systems_on_new/

Why can’t the government pass a law to stop this insane situation?

ydoethur

Philip_Thompson said:

ydoethur said:

Leon said:

ydoethur said:

bigjohnowls said:

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 44% (-)
LAB: 33% (-1)
GRN: 7% (-)
LDEM: 7% (+2)
REFUK: 3% (+1)

via
@YouGov
, 27 - 28 Apr
Chgs. w/ 22 Apr

SKS fans please explain

Clue he is f****** useless

I don’t remember you saying that about Jeremy Corbyn, and he had much worse numbers against a weaker albeit much better PM.

Are you actually claiming Theresa May is a "much better PM" than Boris?

On what metric? What on earth did she do that makes her "much better"? She spent tortuous post-Brexit years agreeing to everything the EU wanted, so she could bring home a Brexit deal which was so shit she couldn't get it through parliament. This was a result of her own initial howling errors, when she imposed red lines at the start which painted her into a terrible corner. All her own fault. She achieved nothing else in office.

As an election-winning politician she is *much better* than Boris in the same way that Worksop is "much better" than Paris, ie this is a view so eccentric only one person in the entire world believes it, and it's not even her, it's you.

Even she knows she is shit at elections, she nearly lost to JEREMY CORBYN

"much better"

lol

Actually, the person who gave the EU what they wanted - a border in the Irish Sea - was Boris Johnson.

That will be the same Boris Johnson who said he wouldn't enforce the border, prior to the deal being signed, and they entrusted enforcing that border to . . . Boris Johnson.

Now they're acting all surprised that the Boris isn't enforcing the border. Funny that. 😂

So you’re saying it’s OK he lied about never agreeing to one, because he also lied about enforcing it?

IanB2

Sunil_Prasannan said:

"As Nigel [Dodds] Is Currently In The House Of Lords"

I keep saying this, but:

House of Unelected Has-Beens!

Many of them haven’t even been.

TimT

bigjohnowls said:

BBC News "Sport England found physical activity dropped in 2020"

I mean seriously

I hope someone used up a huge research grant to reach that conclusion.

TimT

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

"As Nigel [Dodds] Is Currently In The House Of Lords"

I keep saying this, but:

House of Unelected Has-Beens!

Many of them haven’t even been.

The House Built on the Peter Principle

Sunil_Prasannan

Had my first AZ jab earlier today

Had to travel to Romford, but gave me a perfect excuse to have my first bus ride (outbound) and first main line train ride (return trip) since March 12th 2020*!!!

(* Had two return trips on the Central Line's "Hainault Loop", back in September and December)

TimT

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Had my first AZ jab earlier today

Had to travel to Romford, but gave me a perfect excuse to have my first bus ride (outbound) and first main line train ride (return trip) since March 12th 2020*!!!

(* Had two return trips on the Central Line's "Hainault Loop", back in September and December)

Oh happy day!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EfGDvDGE7zk

Oh happy day!
When Boris washed
My COVID away!

MaxPB

TimT said:

Malmesbury said:

UK vaccinations

So the highest vaccination total to date reported on a Thursday? If so, is that as good news going forwards as it seems?

Yup, first doses will start to ramp up again next week as well so we could hit 450k second and 450k first doses per day in May at peak becuase Pfizer will start to be used for first doses again now that the second dose debt on it has fallen quite significantly.

Foss

CursingStone said:

Working Class vote
con 48%
Lab 29%
@yougov

'Were you up for Miliband/Cooper/Javis..?'

Philip_Thompson

ydoethur said:

Philip_Thompson said:

ydoethur said:

Leon said:

ydoethur said:

bigjohnowls said:

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 44% (-)
LAB: 33% (-1)
GRN: 7% (-)
LDEM: 7% (+2)
REFUK: 3% (+1)

via
@YouGov
, 27 - 28 Apr
Chgs. w/ 22 Apr

SKS fans please explain

Clue he is f****** useless

I don’t remember you saying that about Jeremy Corbyn, and he had much worse numbers against a weaker albeit much better PM.

Are you actually claiming Theresa May is a "much better PM" than Boris?

On what metric? What on earth did she do that makes her "much better"? She spent tortuous post-Brexit years agreeing to everything the EU wanted, so she could bring home a Brexit deal which was so shit she couldn't get it through parliament. This was a result of her own initial howling errors, when she imposed red lines at the start which painted her into a terrible corner. All her own fault. She achieved nothing else in office.

As an election-winning politician she is *much better* than Boris in the same way that Worksop is "much better" than Paris, ie this is a view so eccentric only one person in the entire world believes it, and it's not even her, it's you.

Even she knows she is shit at elections, she nearly lost to JEREMY CORBYN

"much better"

lol

Actually, the person who gave the EU what they wanted - a border in the Irish Sea - was Boris Johnson.

That will be the same Boris Johnson who said he wouldn't enforce the border, prior to the deal being signed, and they entrusted enforcing that border to . . . Boris Johnson.

Now they're acting all surprised that the Boris isn't enforcing the border. Funny that. 😂

So you’re saying it’s OK he lied about never agreeing to one, because he also lied about enforcing it?

No. I'm saying he said he'd never have a border, he said he'd never enforce one, now he's not enforcing one and the EU are whinging "why isn't he enforcing a border"? When he told them he wouldn't!

I mean what did they expect? Probably Theresa May style just to see the UK rollover and play dead.

bigjohnowls

Andy_JS said:

"So Edwin Poots, darling of the traditionalists, is favourite to be the next DUP leader.

For those who don’t know him, a short introduction to the man, in his own words
(THREAD)
On the age of the Earth: “My view on the earth is that it's a young earth. My view is 4000 BC.”"

https://twitter.com/mattuthompson/status/1387674064320401409

You would have thought dinosaurs might have been his specialist subject as he is one

IanB2

bigjohnowls said:

Andy_JS said:

CursingStone said:

Working Class vote
con 48%
Lab 29%
@yougov

Explains Hartlepool.

I am green on both Candidates in Hartlepool

Should have stuck with my gut that SKS would become the first Labour leader since WW2 to lose his first by election in a seat where his party was incumbent.

What is interesting is that the far left seems to have concluded that the best strategy is to sabotage and undermine Starmer’s leadership, presumably to install another left-friendly leader who might at some future date cruise to majority power against the then discredited Tories. Meanwhile they, allied with our crooked voting system, simply keep the clown and his ilk in office.

Whereas you’d think that the alternative, which you might call the McIntosh strategy, of allowing some voter-friendly leader to achieve power and then take over the party once it already has power and influence, would be the better bet?

ydoethur

Philip_Thompson said:

ydoethur said:

Philip_Thompson said:

ydoethur said:

Leon said:

ydoethur said:

bigjohnowls said:

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 44% (-)
LAB: 33% (-1)
GRN: 7% (-)
LDEM: 7% (+2)
REFUK: 3% (+1)

via
@YouGov
, 27 - 28 Apr
Chgs. w/ 22 Apr

SKS fans please explain

Clue he is f****** useless

I don’t remember you saying that about Jeremy Corbyn, and he had much worse numbers against a weaker albeit much better PM.

Are you actually claiming Theresa May is a "much better PM" than Boris?

On what metric? What on earth did she do that makes her "much better"? She spent tortuous post-Brexit years agreeing to everything the EU wanted, so she could bring home a Brexit deal which was so shit she couldn't get it through parliament. This was a result of her own initial howling errors, when she imposed red lines at the start which painted her into a terrible corner. All her own fault. She achieved nothing else in office.

As an election-winning politician she is *much better* than Boris in the same way that Worksop is "much better" than Paris, ie this is a view so eccentric only one person in the entire world believes it, and it's not even her, it's you.

Even she knows she is shit at elections, she nearly lost to JEREMY CORBYN

"much better"

lol

Actually, the person who gave the EU what they wanted - a border in the Irish Sea - was Boris Johnson.

That will be the same Boris Johnson who said he wouldn't enforce the border, prior to the deal being signed, and they entrusted enforcing that border to . . . Boris Johnson.

Now they're acting all surprised that the Boris isn't enforcing the border. Funny that. 😂

So you’re saying it’s OK he lied about never agreeing to one, because he also lied about enforcing it?

No. I'm saying he said he'd never have a border, he said he'd never enforce one, now he's not enforcing one and the EU are whinging "why isn't he enforcing a border"? When he told them he wouldn't!

I mean what did they expect? Probably Theresa May style just to see the UK rollover and play dead.

Except he told them he would and they signed a withdrawal agreement on that basis (otherwise they certainly wouldn’t have signed).

Sunil_Prasannan

bigjohnowls said:

Andy_JS said:

"So Edwin Poots, darling of the traditionalists, is favourite to be the next DUP leader.

For those who don’t know him, a short introduction to the man, in his own words
(THREAD)
On the age of the Earth: “My view on the earth is that it's a young earth. My view is 4000 BC.”"

https://twitter.com/mattuthompson/status/1387674064320401409

You would have thought dinosaurs might have been his specialist subject as he is one

He doesn't believe in dinosaurs, as his view is the earth didn't exist 65 million years ago

Philip_Thompson

ydoethur said:

Philip_Thompson said:

ydoethur said:

Philip_Thompson said:

ydoethur said:

Leon said:

ydoethur said:

bigjohnowls said:

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 44% (-)
LAB: 33% (-1)
GRN: 7% (-)
LDEM: 7% (+2)
REFUK: 3% (+1)

via
@YouGov
, 27 - 28 Apr
Chgs. w/ 22 Apr

SKS fans please explain

Clue he is f****** useless

I don’t remember you saying that about Jeremy Corbyn, and he had much worse numbers against a weaker albeit much better PM.

Are you actually claiming Theresa May is a "much better PM" than Boris?

On what metric? What on earth did she do that makes her "much better"? She spent tortuous post-Brexit years agreeing to everything the EU wanted, so she could bring home a Brexit deal which was so shit she couldn't get it through parliament. This was a result of her own initial howling errors, when she imposed red lines at the start which painted her into a terrible corner. All her own fault. She achieved nothing else in office.

As an election-winning politician she is *much better* than Boris in the same way that Worksop is "much better" than Paris, ie this is a view so eccentric only one person in the entire world believes it, and it's not even her, it's you.

Even she knows she is shit at elections, she nearly lost to JEREMY CORBYN

"much better"

lol

Actually, the person who gave the EU what they wanted - a border in the Irish Sea - was Boris Johnson.

That will be the same Boris Johnson who said he wouldn't enforce the border, prior to the deal being signed, and they entrusted enforcing that border to . . . Boris Johnson.

Now they're acting all surprised that the Boris isn't enforcing the border. Funny that. 😂

So you’re saying it’s OK he lied about never agreeing to one, because he also lied about enforcing it?

No. I'm saying he said he'd never have a border, he said he'd never enforce one, now he's not enforcing one and the EU are whinging "why isn't he enforcing a border"? When he told them he wouldn't!

I mean what did they expect? Probably Theresa May style just to see the UK rollover and play dead.

Except he told them he would and they signed a withdrawal agreement on that basis (otherwise they certainly wouldn’t have signed).

But he told them he wouldn't. Now he's not.

If someone tells you they're not going to do something, maybe clear that up before you sign the deal if that's so important to you?