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In the betting punters now rate the chances of a Boris 2021 exit at 25% – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    MaxPB said:

    Ratters said:

    What proportion of adults do people think the UK will end up vaccinating? We're close to 65% now on first doses, yet there's still large parts of the adult population with no access (myself included). Pretty certain well be over 80%, but it wouldn't surprise me if we manage 90% in the end.

    It seems strange to look at the US where there is an excess of supply over demand at lower levels of first doses completed.

    Probably between 90% and 95%. Once it becomes clear that overseas travel will mandate vaccine status a lot of the laggards from ethnic minorities will suddenly overcome their objections. I think the UK will end up closest to 100% of any country where it isn't made legally mandatory.

    I also think we need a few more big pushes from the state, NHS and black, Muslim and other minority celebrities to get vaccine take up even higher. Prominent footballers like Marcus Rashford and Mo Salah taking the vaccine live on TV would be really helpful IMO.
    Everything needs to be done to politely persuade black and Asian people to take the vaccine.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,458
    MaxPB said:

    Ratters said:

    What proportion of adults do people think the UK will end up vaccinating? We're close to 65% now on first doses, yet there's still large parts of the adult population with no access (myself included). Pretty certain well be over 80%, but it wouldn't surprise me if we manage 90% in the end.

    It seems strange to look at the US where there is an excess of supply over demand at lower levels of first doses completed.

    Probably between 90% and 95%. Once it becomes clear that overseas travel will mandate vaccine status a lot of the laggards from ethnic minorities will suddenly overcome their objections. I think the UK will end up closest to 100% of any country where it isn't made legally mandatory.

    I also think we need a few more big pushes from the state, NHS and black, Muslim and other minority celebrities to get vaccine take up even higher. Prominent footballers like Marcus Rashford and Mo Salah taking the vaccine live on TV would be really helpful IMO.
    Mo Salah's a good idea. Sachin Tendulkar also - both for India and also his many fans over here?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    kinabalu said:

    25% over this? As was the case during the Prorogation Crisis, Phonegate, the Cummings Affair Mark 1, the Dark Covid Winter, and now Wallpapergate, those getting caught up in a media feeding-frenzy and blinding themselves to the big picture fundamentals in favour of a short-termist perspective have not done terribly well.

    I think you're right for now. I've decided to run my 'still PM in July 2022' bet. I expect him to ride this. And winning Hartlepool will surely help. But here's the better news - the queasily credible notion of Boris Johnson sat astride this beloved Blighty of ours for a decade or more has somewhat (in my view) receded.
    I know you think Hartlepool's close to nailed on, but if the Tories can take seats from the Opposition while the PM is being buried under a daily mountain of ordure, however confected, then I'd be tempted to just relax and give up on following British politics until 2029. Because Boris will truly be invincible.
    Lord Mountordure - what a great name for a life peer! Almost as good as Lord Dingleberry.
    It's at times like these that we must remember that one of Michael Foot's brothers was called Dingle...

    An immensely talented quartet, actually. All four were Presidents of the Union at either Oxford or Cambridge (which may be an all-time record); two became MPs, two peers.
  • Ratters said:

    Regarding Boris, I don't think this story will cut through by itself but the narrative of sleaze will be hard to erase. It wouldn't surprise me if there is more to come over the next few years, and each time will compound the existing perception.

    For the moment, everyone is too busy enjoying their new found freedoms to care about who paid for whose wallpaper.

    I would also suggest the public are looking at the journalists and politicians and despairing that a wallpaper story of the media bubble is preventing the important news on vaccines, opening the economy, and of course the catastrophe that is India receiving proper attention

    And we only have to wait until 7th May to have a good idea of the response from the public either way
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    No surges to a 7% lead over Yes in new Comres Scottish independence poll

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1387534876564467712?s=20
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Andy_JS said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ratters said:

    What proportion of adults do people think the UK will end up vaccinating? We're close to 65% now on first doses, yet there's still large parts of the adult population with no access (myself included). Pretty certain well be over 80%, but it wouldn't surprise me if we manage 90% in the end.

    It seems strange to look at the US where there is an excess of supply over demand at lower levels of first doses completed.

    Probably between 90% and 95%. Once it becomes clear that overseas travel will mandate vaccine status a lot of the laggards from ethnic minorities will suddenly overcome their objections. I think the UK will end up closest to 100% of any country where it isn't made legally mandatory.

    I also think we need a few more big pushes from the state, NHS and black, Muslim and other minority celebrities to get vaccine take up even higher. Prominent footballers like Marcus Rashford and Mo Salah taking the vaccine live on TV would be really helpful IMO.
    Everything needs to be done to politely persuade black and Asian people to take the vaccine.
    It's not really Asians that have an issue, it's Muslim people of any national background that have now got the lowest uptake. There's a lot of fake news and scare stories about how taking the vaccine isn't halal, or it has got pork in it, or that taking it during Ramadan means it breaks the fast during the day etc... It's not just Pakistani and Bangladeshi people that are being targeted other Muslims are too.

    Non-muslim Asians like Hindus, Sikhs and Buddhists have got very similar take up to white Christians. Places like Harrow, Southall and Hounslow are faring pretty well for vaccines. One of my theories is that every Indian person has got at least one doctor in their family and will get a lot of pressure from that person to take it. It happened in my family and my Indian friends have similar experiences.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835

    MaxPB said:

    Ratters said:

    What proportion of adults do people think the UK will end up vaccinating? We're close to 65% now on first doses, yet there's still large parts of the adult population with no access (myself included). Pretty certain well be over 80%, but it wouldn't surprise me if we manage 90% in the end.

    It seems strange to look at the US where there is an excess of supply over demand at lower levels of first doses completed.

    Probably between 90% and 95%. Once it becomes clear that overseas travel will mandate vaccine status a lot of the laggards from ethnic minorities will suddenly overcome their objections. I think the UK will end up closest to 100% of any country where it isn't made legally mandatory.

    I also think we need a few more big pushes from the state, NHS and black, Muslim and other minority celebrities to get vaccine take up even higher. Prominent footballers like Marcus Rashford and Mo Salah taking the vaccine live on TV would be really helpful IMO.
    Mo Salah's a good idea. Sachin Tendulkar also - both for India and also his many fans over here?

    MaxPB said:

    Ratters said:

    What proportion of adults do people think the UK will end up vaccinating? We're close to 65% now on first doses, yet there's still large parts of the adult population with no access (myself included). Pretty certain well be over 80%, but it wouldn't surprise me if we manage 90% in the end.

    It seems strange to look at the US where there is an excess of supply over demand at lower levels of first doses completed.

    Probably between 90% and 95%. Once it becomes clear that overseas travel will mandate vaccine status a lot of the laggards from ethnic minorities will suddenly overcome their objections. I think the UK will end up closest to 100% of any country where it isn't made legally mandatory.

    I also think we need a few more big pushes from the state, NHS and black, Muslim and other minority celebrities to get vaccine take up even higher. Prominent footballers like Marcus Rashford and Mo Salah taking the vaccine live on TV would be really helpful IMO.
    Mo Salah's a good idea. Sachin Tendulkar also - both for India and also his many fans over here?
    Amir Khan was photographed and widely publicised getting his jab.
    Needless to say he was abused for queue jumping.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,583
    Ratters said:

    Regarding Boris, I don't think this story will cut through by itself but the narrative of sleaze will be hard to erase. It wouldn't surprise me if there is more to come over the next few years, and each time will compound the existing perception.

    For the moment, everyone is too busy enjoying their new found freedoms to care about who paid for whose wallpaper.

    The killer blow probably isn't the wallpaper. If the "piles of bodies" comment turns out to be true, that is probably a straight red card.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    Ratters said:

    What proportion of adults do people think the UK will end up vaccinating? We're close to 65% now on first doses, yet there's still large parts of the adult population with no access (myself included). Pretty certain well be over 80%, but it wouldn't surprise me if we manage 90% in the end.

    It seems strange to look at the US where there is an excess of supply over demand at lower levels of first doses completed.

    Probably between 90% and 95%. Once it becomes clear that overseas travel will mandate vaccine status a lot of the laggards from ethnic minorities will suddenly overcome their objections. I think the UK will end up closest to 100% of any country where it isn't made legally mandatory.

    I also think we need a few more big pushes from the state, NHS and black, Muslim and other minority celebrities to get vaccine take up even higher. Prominent footballers like Marcus Rashford and Mo Salah taking the vaccine live on TV would be really helpful IMO.
    Mo Salah's a good idea. Sachin Tendulkar also - both for India and also his many fans over here?
    I'm not sure it's necessary here. Maybe in India but I don't know what the hesitancy is like over there. Sachin would be a good candidate, Virat Kholi maybe more at the moment, but really it should be Amitabh Bachchan and Shah Rukh Khan. If they ran a national campaign centred around those two then I think everyone would take it in India.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835

    Ratters said:

    Regarding Boris, I don't think this story will cut through by itself but the narrative of sleaze will be hard to erase. It wouldn't surprise me if there is more to come over the next few years, and each time will compound the existing perception.

    For the moment, everyone is too busy enjoying their new found freedoms to care about who paid for whose wallpaper.

    The killer blow probably isn't the wallpaper. If the "piles of bodies" comment turns out to be true, that is probably a straight red card.
    The ESL rumours are more incendiary though probably unprovable.
    But he'd brazen it out.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Mo Salah probably isn’t the ideal poster boy given he contracted covid at his brother’s Egyptian wedding where there was zero covid protocol. London appears to be the region with the lowest uptake (around 85%) so nationally we should be aiming for 90% or above.

    The most popular TV station in France said today that supply is up to 200,000 doses per day higher than demand (which is why their vaccination rate is still miles behind the UK and Germany). I think they’ll be lucky to get 65% of the country vaccinated given current scepticism.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    edited April 2021

    kinabalu said:

    25% over this? As was the case during the Prorogation Crisis, Phonegate, the Cummings Affair Mark 1, the Dark Covid Winter, and now Wallpapergate, those getting caught up in a media feeding-frenzy and blinding themselves to the big picture fundamentals in favour of a short-termist perspective have not done terribly well.

    I think you're right for now. I've decided to run my 'still PM in July 2022' bet. I expect him to ride this. And winning Hartlepool will surely help. But here's the better news - the queasily credible notion of Boris Johnson sat astride this beloved Blighty of ours for a decade or more has somewhat (in my view) receded.
    I know you think Hartlepool's close to nailed on, but if the Tories can take seats from the Opposition while the PM is being buried under a daily mountain of ordure, however confected, then I'd be tempted to just relax and give up on following British politics until 2029. Because Boris will truly be invincible.
    Labour's failure wasn't so much the fact they lost red wall seats such as Bassetlaw or Redcar, it's more that they went backwards in city seats such as Milton Keynes north & Reading West. They couldn't even get Chingford from IDS ffsake, that's low hanging fruit. Altrincham and Sale West is another constituency they really should be competitive in.
    Losing Northfield near Birmingham, just dire.
    Regardless of any sort of realignment Labour 2019 results were just awful.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    rcs1000 said:

    TimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Chameleon said:

    Evening all, I was wondering if anyone had a high level overview of demand for vaccines by state in the US? I'm getting slightly nervous that the US South and France we could have issues reaching the 75-80% mark.

    US states fall into three broad categories:

    - Vaccine lovers, where they've reached 50% of adults jabbed at least once, and per day numbers remain consistently high. This is - frankly - the North East, the Midwest, Florida and the West Coast.

    - The super sceptics, where only 30-33% of people have had at least one jab, and the numbers getting vaccinated fall every day. This is the Deep South.

    - Everywhere else.

    I think it's highly likely that Alabama and Mississippi will top out at less than 40% vaccinated.

    It's also quite possible that most EU countries will have surpassed those states by the end of next week. (Finland, for example, has surpassed them even without using Sputnik-V.)
    I am reasonably optimistic about the 'everywhere else' category getting to relatively high levels of uptake, albeit more slowly than the enthusiasts. I fear for Trumpland.
    Alabama.

    - has received close to 4 million vaccines from the Federal Government, but has put less than 2.5 million in the arms of its citizens

    - Is averaging about 12-13,000 jabs a day, down 30% from last week, and down 60% from the levels of a month ago.

    First jabs are now under 3,000 per day.

    Currently just 30% of Alabaman adults have had at least one shot of the vaccine.

    But at 3,000 a day (and dropping), that number is going to end up stalling at 35-36%.
    Cheers, Alabama does sound to be in somewhat of a sub-optimal position. Given how the type of Americans who are rejecting vaccines tend to think, more (Dem/non-Trump) Government inducement is unlikely to have the desired effect. Tricky.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Brom said:

    Mo Salah probably isn’t the ideal poster boy given he contracted covid at his brother’s Egyptian wedding where there was zero covid protocol. London appears to be the region with the lowest uptake (around 85%) so nationally we should be aiming for 90% or above.

    The most popular TV station in France said today that supply is up to 200,000 doses per day higher than demand (which is why their vaccination rate is still miles behind the UK and Germany). I think they’ll be lucky to get 65% of the country vaccinated given current scepticism.

    We should buy those spare doses, even at £100 per dose it's good value as we'd be able to finish the first dose programme by the end of May!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,583
    dixiedean said:

    Ratters said:

    Regarding Boris, I don't think this story will cut through by itself but the narrative of sleaze will be hard to erase. It wouldn't surprise me if there is more to come over the next few years, and each time will compound the existing perception.

    For the moment, everyone is too busy enjoying their new found freedoms to care about who paid for whose wallpaper.

    The killer blow probably isn't the wallpaper. If the "piles of bodies" comment turns out to be true, that is probably a straight red card.
    The ESL rumours are more incendiary though probably unprovable.
    But he'd brazen it out.
    Nah, as Leon said some days ago, "Boris saved football". I think that ship has sailed. If say, Cummings' phone was on record when the alleged statement regarding bodies and lockdowns was made, it's "goodnight Vienna".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Written by my old Headmaster no less
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777
    It has been alleged that the Prime Minister sought financial assistance from Tory donors towards the renovation costs of his Downing Street residence. He has been pressed to clarify whether the allegations about his apartment are true.

    Boris has issued a flat denial.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    HYUFD said:

    Written by my old Headmaster no less
    Did he do one for you too?
    Please, please share.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Written by my old Headmaster no less
    Did he do one for you too?
    Please, please share.
    I did have him for Latin for a few lessons in my first year, don't think I got a report though
  • HYUFD said:

    No surges to a 7% lead over Yes in new Comres Scottish independence poll

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1387534876564467712?s=20

    I have been saying for sometime that support for independence is falling and I expect it to continue for reason I have already stated
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    edited April 2021
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Written by my old Headmaster no less
    Did he do one for you too?
    Please, please share.
    I did have him for Latin for a few lessons in my first year, don't think I got a report though
    Shame.
    A good report (from a teacher's point of view) is a work of art. I never mastered it.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,227

    kinabalu said:

    25% over this? As was the case during the Prorogation Crisis, Phonegate, the Cummings Affair Mark 1, the Dark Covid Winter, and now Wallpapergate, those getting caught up in a media feeding-frenzy and blinding themselves to the big picture fundamentals in favour of a short-termist perspective have not done terribly well.

    I think you're right for now. I've decided to run my 'still PM in July 2022' bet. I expect him to ride this. And winning Hartlepool will surely help. But here's the better news - the queasily credible notion of Boris Johnson sat astride this beloved Blighty of ours for a decade or more has somewhat (in my view) receded.
    I know you think Hartlepool's close to nailed on, but if the Tories can take seats from the Opposition while the PM is being buried under a daily mountain of ordure, however confected, then I'd be tempted to just relax and give up on following British politics until 2029. Because Boris will truly be invincible.
    Lord Mountordure - what a great name for a life peer! Almost as good as Lord Dingleberry.
    It's at times like these that we must remember that one of Michael Foot's brothers was called Dingle...

    An immensely talented quartet, actually. All four were Presidents of the Union at either Oxford or Cambridge (which may be an all-time record); two became MPs, two peers.
    True, and generous for you to say about a Lib-Lab family.

    BTW, Michael Foot was a star lefty journo working for a super-Tory publisher, Lord Beaverbrook.

    The Beaver nurtured an impressive & varied stable of top-notch ink-splattered wretches. Pretty bad as a politico (esp. for his own side) one of the reasons The Great British Public bounced Winston Churchill after VE Day. As an administrator rather like the Bay of Fundy in his own native New Brunswick: tide either VERY high or VERY low.

    It was as a publisher that Beaverbrook was at his best. Which is NOT to say you could take what his papers printed as gospel. But then am not totally sure we can take the Gospel for gospel!
  • dixiedean said:

    Ratters said:

    Regarding Boris, I don't think this story will cut through by itself but the narrative of sleaze will be hard to erase. It wouldn't surprise me if there is more to come over the next few years, and each time will compound the existing perception.

    For the moment, everyone is too busy enjoying their new found freedoms to care about who paid for whose wallpaper.

    The killer blow probably isn't the wallpaper. If the "piles of bodies" comment turns out to be true, that is probably a straight red card.
    The ESL rumours are more incendiary though probably unprovable.
    But he'd brazen it out.
    Nah, as Leon said some days ago, "Boris saved football". I think that ship has sailed. If say, Cummings' phone was on record when the alleged statement regarding bodies and lockdowns was made, it's "goodnight Vienna".
    It has been said he was not present
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,555
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    I can't see Boris going this year. Not happening.

    Very interesting and well-reasoned article in the Spectator, "How London will help Scotland get independence" - well worth a read, it makes sense to me: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-london-will-help-scotland-get-independence

    And this is also worth a look - about the other tendency (HYUFD et aliis) in the Tories and how beneficial this would be to one side in the argument.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/scotland-cannot-be-held-in-the-union-against-its-will


    Very interesting that the Speccy is publishing such pieces. Mr Gove? But I remember what happened when similar arguments were tried in Labour - Wendy Alexander's 'Bring it on' strategy of an early indyref got her metaphorically defenestrated.
    It's Fraser Nelson, the editor. This is his THANG

    Boris will refuse a vote, and that will remain Tory policy until 2024. Don't get over-excited
    I wouldn't be surprised. Even so, it's not just Mr Nelson. The more thinking peons are getting unsettled in ToryWorld about the wisdom of a HYUFD strategy - I've pointed out at least one other example recently.
    Honest question: do you, as a Nat (an entirely respectable opinion, of course) really WANT a referendum now?

    It seems to me to be eminently lose-able. A pandemic, a huge deficit, the EU looking much less attractive, the oil gone. You'd be led by Sturgeon, who wanes daily, and with Salmond lurking like some mad, drunken uncle who won't be thrown out of the wedding.

    And that's it

    This seems to me to be highly sub-optimal timing for a Sindy-vote. But maybe you think it is your last best chance?

    If you lose again that's it for 30 years and London will (quite rightly) tell you to fuck off and start a civil war if you truly want to go

    So, as an honest Nat (which you are, I feel): do you actually want a 2nd vote now?

    To my mind Sturgeon's bet is best, wait another 5-10 years, chip away at Britishness, wait for a more opportune economic moment....
    If they lose it, they'll be asking for another one within 5 years.
    5 weeks would be my guess. That was how long it took Remainers in 2016 iirc.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,583

    dixiedean said:

    Ratters said:

    Regarding Boris, I don't think this story will cut through by itself but the narrative of sleaze will be hard to erase. It wouldn't surprise me if there is more to come over the next few years, and each time will compound the existing perception.

    For the moment, everyone is too busy enjoying their new found freedoms to care about who paid for whose wallpaper.

    The killer blow probably isn't the wallpaper. If the "piles of bodies" comment turns out to be true, that is probably a straight red card.
    The ESL rumours are more incendiary though probably unprovable.
    But he'd brazen it out.
    Nah, as Leon said some days ago, "Boris saved football". I think that ship has sailed. If say, Cummings' phone was on record when the alleged statement regarding bodies and lockdowns was made, it's "goodnight Vienna".
    It has been said he was not present
    I would be highly surprised if there is no recording (assuming it happened). A duplicitous lot those Tory MPs. It all depends whether friend or Michael Gove holds the tape!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    edited April 2021

    HYUFD said:

    No surges to a 7% lead over Yes in new Comres Scottish independence poll

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1387534876564467712?s=20

    I have been saying for sometime that support for independence is falling and I expect it to continue for reason I have already stated
    Which is why I expect the following.
    A pro-Indy majority.
    A Scottish government pretending to want a referendum, but hoping not to have to.
    A UK PM pretending not to want one, but secretly hoping for one.
  • dixiedean said:

    Ratters said:

    Regarding Boris, I don't think this story will cut through by itself but the narrative of sleaze will be hard to erase. It wouldn't surprise me if there is more to come over the next few years, and each time will compound the existing perception.

    For the moment, everyone is too busy enjoying their new found freedoms to care about who paid for whose wallpaper.

    The killer blow probably isn't the wallpaper. If the "piles of bodies" comment turns out to be true, that is probably a straight red card.
    The ESL rumours are more incendiary though probably unprovable.
    But he'd brazen it out.
    Nah, as Leon said some days ago, "Boris saved football". I think that ship has sailed. If say, Cummings' phone was on record when the alleged statement regarding bodies and lockdowns was made, it's "goodnight Vienna".
    It has been said he was not present
    I would be highly surprised if there is no recording (assuming it happened). A duplicitous lot those Tory MPs. It all depends whether friend or Michael Gove holds the tape!
    As I said earlier if there is a tape or recording of him saying the alleged words then he has to resign

    I am not of the same opinion on the wallpapers
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Written by my old Headmaster no less
    Did he do one for you too?
    Please, please share.
    I did have him for Latin for a few lessons in my first year, don't think I got a report though
    I've just come across this old school report for a pupil called "Hyufd".

    "Hyufd has demonstrated himself to be an able pupil this term and a keen, industrious and reliable supporter of the party line. But he has small Latin and less Greek."
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    I can't see Boris going this year. Not happening.

    Very interesting and well-reasoned article in the Spectator, "How London will help Scotland get independence" - well worth a read, it makes sense to me: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-london-will-help-scotland-get-independence

    And this is also worth a look - about the other tendency (HYUFD et aliis) in the Tories and how beneficial this would be to one side in the argument.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/scotland-cannot-be-held-in-the-union-against-its-will


    Very interesting that the Speccy is publishing such pieces. Mr Gove? But I remember what happened when similar arguments were tried in Labour - Wendy Alexander's 'Bring it on' strategy of an early indyref got her metaphorically defenestrated.
    It's Fraser Nelson, the editor. This is his THANG

    Boris will refuse a vote, and that will remain Tory policy until 2024. Don't get over-excited
    I wouldn't be surprised. Even so, it's not just Mr Nelson. The more thinking peons are getting unsettled in ToryWorld about the wisdom of a HYUFD strategy - I've pointed out at least one other example recently.
    Honest question: do you, as a Nat (an entirely respectable opinion, of course) really WANT a referendum now?

    It seems to me to be eminently lose-able. A pandemic, a huge deficit, the EU looking much less attractive, the oil gone. You'd be led by Sturgeon, who wanes daily, and with Salmond lurking like some mad, drunken uncle who won't be thrown out of the wedding.

    And that's it

    This seems to me to be highly sub-optimal timing for a Sindy-vote. But maybe you think it is your last best chance?

    If you lose again that's it for 30 years and London will (quite rightly) tell you to fuck off and start a civil war if you truly want to go

    So, as an honest Nat (which you are, I feel): do you actually want a 2nd vote now?

    To my mind Sturgeon's bet is best, wait another 5-10 years, chip away at Britishness, wait for a more opportune economic moment....
    If they lose it, they'll be asking for another one within 5 years.
    5 weeks would be my guess. That was how long it took Remainers in 2016 iirc.
    Losing two in such a short space of time would probably take it off the agenda for good. If the polls are right then it does seem as though peak indy has passed us by.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,392
    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ratters said:

    What proportion of adults do people think the UK will end up vaccinating? We're close to 65% now on first doses, yet there's still large parts of the adult population with no access (myself included). Pretty certain well be over 80%, but it wouldn't surprise me if we manage 90% in the end.

    It seems strange to look at the US where there is an excess of supply over demand at lower levels of first doses completed.

    Probably between 90% and 95%. Once it becomes clear that overseas travel will mandate vaccine status a lot of the laggards from ethnic minorities will suddenly overcome their objections. I think the UK will end up closest to 100% of any country where it isn't made legally mandatory.

    I also think we need a few more big pushes from the state, NHS and black, Muslim and other minority celebrities to get vaccine take up even higher. Prominent footballers like Marcus Rashford and Mo Salah taking the vaccine live on TV would be really helpful IMO.
    Everything needs to be done to politely persuade black and Asian people to take the vaccine.
    It's not really Asians that have an issue, it's Muslim people of any national background that have now got the lowest uptake. There's a lot of fake news and scare stories about how taking the vaccine isn't halal, or it has got pork in it, or that taking it during Ramadan means it breaks the fast during the day etc... It's not just Pakistani and Bangladeshi people that are being targeted other Muslims are too.

    Non-muslim Asians like Hindus, Sikhs and Buddhists have got very similar take up to white Christians. Places like Harrow, Southall and Hounslow are faring pretty well for vaccines. One of my theories is that every Indian person has got at least one doctor in their family and will get a lot of pressure from that person to take it. It happened in my family and my Indian friends have similar experiences.
    Three doctors, a pharmacist, a dentist and a vet. And that is just in my wife's immediate family. There's only one of them with a normal job. By normal, I mean someone like me who sits at a computer all day.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,206
    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ratters said:

    What proportion of adults do people think the UK will end up vaccinating? We're close to 65% now on first doses, yet there's still large parts of the adult population with no access (myself included). Pretty certain well be over 80%, but it wouldn't surprise me if we manage 90% in the end.

    It seems strange to look at the US where there is an excess of supply over demand at lower levels of first doses completed.

    Probably between 90% and 95%. Once it becomes clear that overseas travel will mandate vaccine status a lot of the laggards from ethnic minorities will suddenly overcome their objections. I think the UK will end up closest to 100% of any country where it isn't made legally mandatory.

    I also think we need a few more big pushes from the state, NHS and black, Muslim and other minority celebrities to get vaccine take up even higher. Prominent footballers like Marcus Rashford and Mo Salah taking the vaccine live on TV would be really helpful IMO.
    Everything needs to be done to politely persuade black and Asian people to take the vaccine.
    It's not really Asians that have an issue, it's Muslim people of any national background that have now got the lowest uptake. There's a lot of fake news and scare stories about how taking the vaccine isn't halal, or it has got pork in it, or that taking it during Ramadan means it breaks the fast during the day etc... It's not just Pakistani and Bangladeshi people that are being targeted other Muslims are too.

    Non-muslim Asians like Hindus, Sikhs and Buddhists have got very similar take up to white Christians. Places like Harrow, Southall and Hounslow are faring pretty well for vaccines. One of my theories is that every Indian person has got at least one doctor in their family and will get a lot of pressure from that person to take it. It happened in my family and my Indian friends have similar experiences.
    Too much of Islam is anti-science. This is the harvest of that stupidity

    It is an absolute tragedy when you remember that early Islam - in Andalusia, Egypt, Iraq - essentially saved all the science of the classical world, bequeathing it to Renaissance Europe

    Now the imams are as dumb as Trumpites
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,555

    rcs1000 said:

    TimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Chameleon said:

    Evening all, I was wondering if anyone had a high level overview of demand for vaccines by state in the US? I'm getting slightly nervous that the US South and France we could have issues reaching the 75-80% mark.

    US states fall into three broad categories:

    - Vaccine lovers, where they've reached 50% of adults jabbed at least once, and per day numbers remain consistently high. This is - frankly - the North East, the Midwest, Florida and the West Coast.

    - The super sceptics, where only 30-33% of people have had at least one jab, and the numbers getting vaccinated fall every day. This is the Deep South.

    - Everywhere else.

    I think it's highly likely that Alabama and Mississippi will top out at less than 40% vaccinated.

    It's also quite possible that most EU countries will have surpassed those states by the end of next week. (Finland, for example, has surpassed them even without using Sputnik-V.)
    I am reasonably optimistic about the 'everywhere else' category getting to relatively high levels of uptake, albeit more slowly than the enthusiasts. I fear for Trumpland.
    Alabama.

    - has received close to 4 million vaccines from the Federal Government, but has put less than 2.5 million in the arms of its citizens

    - Is averaging about 12-13,000 jabs a day, down 30% from last week, and down 60% from the levels of a month ago.

    First jabs are now under 3,000 per day.

    Currently just 30% of Alabaman adults have had at least one shot of the vaccine.

    But at 3,000 a day (and dropping), that number is going to end up stalling at 35-36%.
    There is an interesting question here - and one I do not for a minute pretend to know the answer to.

    At what point does the anti-vaxxer propaganda become the equivalent of shouting fire in a theatre?

    We all understand the concept of the very limited examples of limitations on freedom of speech - incitement to violence and 'shouting fire in a crowded theatre' being the two most obvious examples. At what point - if ever - can we reasonably decide that the lies being perpetuated by the anti-vaxxers is so dangerous it counts as endangerment and that if people die as a consequence then those spreading the lies should be prosecuted?

    I don't know the answer to this and perhaps the answer for me is never. But I think it is a debate at least worth having as some powerful figures continue to undermine the vaccination campaigns around the world.
    Never. The pandemic has already torched a good number of our civil liberties. Let's not add yet another one to the total.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,583
    edited April 2021
    stjohn said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Written by my old Headmaster no less
    Did he do one for you too?
    Please, please share.
    I did have him for Latin for a few lessons in my first year, don't think I got a report though
    I've just come across this old school report for a pupil called "Hyufd".

    "Hyufd has demonstrated himself to be an able pupil this term and a keen, industrious and reliable supporter of the party line. But he has small Latin and less Greek."
    Martin Hammond seems very keen on using a pupil's ficticious future moniker when addressing them in reports. First "Boris" now "HYUFD".
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    edited April 2021
    stjohn said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Written by my old Headmaster no less
    Did he do one for you too?
    Please, please share.
    I did have him for Latin for a few lessons in my first year, don't think I got a report though
    I've just come across this old school report for a pupil called "Hyufd".

    "Hyufd has demonstrated himself to be an able pupil this term and a keen, industrious and reliable supporter of the party line. But he has small Latin and less Greek."
    Keen interest in military planning, historical polling data and shipping routes. :)
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,227
    Chameleon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Chameleon said:

    Evening all, I was wondering if anyone had a high level overview of demand for vaccines by state in the US? I'm getting slightly nervous that the US South and France we could have issues reaching the 75-80% mark.

    US states fall into three broad categories:

    - Vaccine lovers, where they've reached 50% of adults jabbed at least once, and per day numbers remain consistently high. This is - frankly - the North East, the Midwest, Florida and the West Coast.

    - The super sceptics, where only 30-33% of people have had at least one jab, and the numbers getting vaccinated fall every day. This is the Deep South.

    - Everywhere else.

    I think it's highly likely that Alabama and Mississippi will top out at less than 40% vaccinated.

    It's also quite possible that most EU countries will have surpassed those states by the end of next week. (Finland, for example, has surpassed them even without using Sputnik-V.)
    I am reasonably optimistic about the 'everywhere else' category getting to relatively high levels of uptake, albeit more slowly than the enthusiasts. I fear for Trumpland.
    Alabama.

    - has received close to 4 million vaccines from the Federal Government, but has put less than 2.5 million in the arms of its citizens

    - Is averaging about 12-13,000 jabs a day, down 30% from last week, and down 60% from the levels of a month ago.

    First jabs are now under 3,000 per day.

    Currently just 30% of Alabaman adults have had at least one shot of the vaccine.

    But at 3,000 a day (and dropping), that number is going to end up stalling at 35-36%.
    Cheers, Alabama does sound to be in somewhat of a sub-optimal position. Given how the type of Americans who are rejecting vaccines tend to think, more (Dem/non-Trump) Government inducement is unlikely to have the desired effect. Tricky.
    Reckon that in the Deep South of the US, above-average vaccine hesitancy or outright rejection is result of several factors, being highest among mega-MAGA Whites AND large segments of the Black community targeted by infamous Tuskegee study and other public health horror stories. Also Alabama (like Mississippi) lacks a major metro area with large urban & surburban populations, thus more rural and small town.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    MaxPB said:

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    I can't see Boris going this year. Not happening.

    Very interesting and well-reasoned article in the Spectator, "How London will help Scotland get independence" - well worth a read, it makes sense to me: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-london-will-help-scotland-get-independence

    And this is also worth a look - about the other tendency (HYUFD et aliis) in the Tories and how beneficial this would be to one side in the argument.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/scotland-cannot-be-held-in-the-union-against-its-will


    Very interesting that the Speccy is publishing such pieces. Mr Gove? But I remember what happened when similar arguments were tried in Labour - Wendy Alexander's 'Bring it on' strategy of an early indyref got her metaphorically defenestrated.
    It's Fraser Nelson, the editor. This is his THANG

    Boris will refuse a vote, and that will remain Tory policy until 2024. Don't get over-excited
    I wouldn't be surprised. Even so, it's not just Mr Nelson. The more thinking peons are getting unsettled in ToryWorld about the wisdom of a HYUFD strategy - I've pointed out at least one other example recently.
    Honest question: do you, as a Nat (an entirely respectable opinion, of course) really WANT a referendum now?

    It seems to me to be eminently lose-able. A pandemic, a huge deficit, the EU looking much less attractive, the oil gone. You'd be led by Sturgeon, who wanes daily, and with Salmond lurking like some mad, drunken uncle who won't be thrown out of the wedding.

    And that's it

    This seems to me to be highly sub-optimal timing for a Sindy-vote. But maybe you think it is your last best chance?

    If you lose again that's it for 30 years and London will (quite rightly) tell you to fuck off and start a civil war if you truly want to go

    So, as an honest Nat (which you are, I feel): do you actually want a 2nd vote now?

    To my mind Sturgeon's bet is best, wait another 5-10 years, chip away at Britishness, wait for a more opportune economic moment....
    If they lose it, they'll be asking for another one within 5 years.
    5 weeks would be my guess. That was how long it took Remainers in 2016 iirc.
    Losing two in such a short space of time would probably take it off the agenda for good. If the polls are right then it does seem as though peak indy has passed us by.
    The recent nonsense of the EU has probably brought some moderates back.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Written by my old Headmaster no less
    Did he do one for you too?
    Please, please share.
    I did have him for Latin for a few lessons in my first year, don't think I got a report though
    Hammond's quite the prodigy too: he holds a rather special record for a classical undergraduate that has rarely been equalled or surpassed.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,206
    MaxPB said:

    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    I can't see Boris going this year. Not happening.

    Very interesting and well-reasoned article in the Spectator, "How London will help Scotland get independence" - well worth a read, it makes sense to me: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-london-will-help-scotland-get-independence

    And this is also worth a look - about the other tendency (HYUFD et aliis) in the Tories and how beneficial this would be to one side in the argument.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/scotland-cannot-be-held-in-the-union-against-its-will


    Very interesting that the Speccy is publishing such pieces. Mr Gove? But I remember what happened when similar arguments were tried in Labour - Wendy Alexander's 'Bring it on' strategy of an early indyref got her metaphorically defenestrated.
    It's Fraser Nelson, the editor. This is his THANG

    Boris will refuse a vote, and that will remain Tory policy until 2024. Don't get over-excited
    I wouldn't be surprised. Even so, it's not just Mr Nelson. The more thinking peons are getting unsettled in ToryWorld about the wisdom of a HYUFD strategy - I've pointed out at least one other example recently.
    Honest question: do you, as a Nat (an entirely respectable opinion, of course) really WANT a referendum now?

    It seems to me to be eminently lose-able. A pandemic, a huge deficit, the EU looking much less attractive, the oil gone. You'd be led by Sturgeon, who wanes daily, and with Salmond lurking like some mad, drunken uncle who won't be thrown out of the wedding.

    And that's it

    This seems to me to be highly sub-optimal timing for a Sindy-vote. But maybe you think it is your last best chance?

    If you lose again that's it for 30 years and London will (quite rightly) tell you to fuck off and start a civil war if you truly want to go

    So, as an honest Nat (which you are, I feel): do you actually want a 2nd vote now?

    To my mind Sturgeon's bet is best, wait another 5-10 years, chip away at Britishness, wait for a more opportune economic moment....
    If they lose it, they'll be asking for another one within 5 years.
    5 weeks would be my guess. That was how long it took Remainers in 2016 iirc.
    Losing two in such a short space of time would probably take it off the agenda for good. If the polls are right then it does seem as though peak indy has passed us by.
    Peak Indy has passed, for a while, I suspect. Brexit will further the distance between Sindy and the EU

    BTW I forgot to say: so sorry to hear of your family afflictions from Covid. Your mother lost several brothers? Did I read that right?!

    If so, my God. Terrible. Sobering. Best of British and Indian luck to you all
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955

    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ratters said:

    What proportion of adults do people think the UK will end up vaccinating? We're close to 65% now on first doses, yet there's still large parts of the adult population with no access (myself included). Pretty certain well be over 80%, but it wouldn't surprise me if we manage 90% in the end.

    It seems strange to look at the US where there is an excess of supply over demand at lower levels of first doses completed.

    Probably between 90% and 95%. Once it becomes clear that overseas travel will mandate vaccine status a lot of the laggards from ethnic minorities will suddenly overcome their objections. I think the UK will end up closest to 100% of any country where it isn't made legally mandatory.

    I also think we need a few more big pushes from the state, NHS and black, Muslim and other minority celebrities to get vaccine take up even higher. Prominent footballers like Marcus Rashford and Mo Salah taking the vaccine live on TV would be really helpful IMO.
    Everything needs to be done to politely persuade black and Asian people to take the vaccine.
    It's not really Asians that have an issue, it's Muslim people of any national background that have now got the lowest uptake. There's a lot of fake news and scare stories about how taking the vaccine isn't halal, or it has got pork in it, or that taking it during Ramadan means it breaks the fast during the day etc... It's not just Pakistani and Bangladeshi people that are being targeted other Muslims are too.

    Non-muslim Asians like Hindus, Sikhs and Buddhists have got very similar take up to white Christians. Places like Harrow, Southall and Hounslow are faring pretty well for vaccines. One of my theories is that every Indian person has got at least one doctor in their family and will get a lot of pressure from that person to take it. It happened in my family and my Indian friends have similar experiences.
    Three doctors, a pharmacist, a dentist and a vet. And that is just in my wife's immediate family. There's only one of them with a normal job. By normal, I mean someone like me who sits at a computer all day.
    Who does he post as on pb.com?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,227
    dixiedean said:

    stjohn said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Written by my old Headmaster no less
    Did he do one for you too?
    Please, please share.
    I did have him for Latin for a few lessons in my first year, don't think I got a report though
    I've just come across this old school report for a pupil called "Hyufd".

    "Hyufd has demonstrated himself to be an able pupil this term and a keen, industrious and reliable supporter of the party line. But he has small Latin and less Greek."
    Keen interest in military planning, historical polling data and shipping routes. :)
    "Dogged in his defense of his sometimes curious ideas as to how classical languages SHOULD be spoken, written and understood. Inclined to pound his fist on the table when taken to task for his more dubious declensions. But always ready to raise his hand in class."
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,206

    stjohn said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Written by my old Headmaster no less
    Did he do one for you too?
    Please, please share.
    I did have him for Latin for a few lessons in my first year, don't think I got a report though
    I've just come across this old school report for a pupil called "Hyufd".

    "Hyufd has demonstrated himself to be an able pupil this term and a keen, industrious and reliable supporter of the party line. But he has small Latin and less Greek."
    Martin Hammond seems very keen on using a pupil's ficticious future moniker when addressing them in reports. First "Boris" now "HYUFD".
    "He exhibits an unusual passion for the benefits of 'hot broth' and 'tanks', but is otherwise disappointing"
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,665

    MAIL: Boris Painted Into A Corner

    #TomorrowsPapersToday


    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1387515900992045059

    Shouldn't that be "papered into a corner"?
    Wedged into a corner?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,206
    Dura_Ace said:

    Doubt Boris is going anywhere.
    But it’s hard to imagine him leading the party into the next election.

    That’s not a prediction, I just struggle to imagine it.

    I have my doubts that he will but equally am not sure he will be defenestrated by the party

    My great uncle was thrown out of a window. Please be more careful with your language.
    Fuck off. Don't make fun

    My grandfather DIED at Auschwitz:

    He got drunk and fell out of a watchtower*

    *I am happy to yield the provenance of this joke to Irvine Welsh, Jerry Sadowitz, and many others who claim its creation

  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,530
    Somewhat ironic that Brexit both helped but could eventually harm the chances of the SNP winning another Indy vote and re-joining the EU.

    The long drawn out tortuous EU UK negotiations are likely to be even more fraught if Scotland decides on independence and you can’t wish away the complexities of what would happen at the border .

    The better fit for Scotland might be as an EEA member like Norway , having complete control over fisheries and agriculture and out of the customs union but in the single market . Otherwise it would have to implement the current EU UK trade deal which would further complicate the border issues.

    I still feel that Scotland could make a success of independence but it would have been less complicated if the UK had remained in the EU .
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Chameleon said:

    Evening all, I was wondering if anyone had a high level overview of demand for vaccines by state in the US? I'm getting slightly nervous that the US South and France we could have issues reaching the 75-80% mark.

    US states fall into three broad categories:

    - Vaccine lovers, where they've reached 50% of adults jabbed at least once, and per day numbers remain consistently high. This is - frankly - the North East, the Midwest, Florida and the West Coast.

    - The super sceptics, where only 30-33% of people have had at least one jab, and the numbers getting vaccinated fall every day. This is the Deep South.

    - Everywhere else.

    I think it's highly likely that Alabama and Mississippi will top out at less than 40% vaccinated.

    It's also quite possible that most EU countries will have surpassed those states by the end of next week. (Finland, for example, has surpassed them even without using Sputnik-V.)
    But this is the thing I keep coming back to.

    Are there any GOP politicians who are anti-vax advocates ?

    Even Trump was vaccinated so it cannot be emulation of him.

    So what happens if open anti-vaxxers try to primary GOP politicians in Alabama etc ?
    QAnon claims that Trump never actually took the vaccine.
    Is that still going ?

    I would have thought the complete failure of all of their predictions might have led its followers to switch to something more rational such as the lizard people.
    You might want to read When Prophecy Fails, it's amazing how long people continue to believe in cult-like things, long after the evidence has become overwhelming that they're not true.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    Brom said:

    Mo Salah probably isn’t the ideal poster boy given he contracted covid at his brother’s Egyptian wedding where there was zero covid protocol. London appears to be the region with the lowest uptake (around 85%) so nationally we should be aiming for 90% or above.

    The most popular TV station in France said today that supply is up to 200,000 doses per day higher than demand (which is why their vaccination rate is still miles behind the UK and Germany). I think they’ll be lucky to get 65% of the country vaccinated given current scepticism.

    France and Germany aren't very far apart, and both are doing better than the EU average for first doses.

    Across the whole EU, the number is 26.5% of the population with first doses, and France is on 26.7% while Germany is on 28.1%. (See: https://vaccinetracker.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/vaccine-tracker.html#uptake-tab)

    France also doesn't seem to have a big gap between doses recieved (22.3m) and doses administered (19.6m). That gap is smaller proportionally than Germany (29.7m vs 25.5m).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,206
    nico679 said:

    Somewhat ironic that Brexit both helped but could eventually harm the chances of the SNP winning another Indy vote and re-joining the EU.

    The long drawn out tortuous EU UK negotiations are likely to be even more fraught if Scotland decides on independence and you can’t wish away the complexities of what would happen at the border .

    The better fit for Scotland might be as an EEA member like Norway , having complete control over fisheries and agriculture and out of the customs union but in the single market . Otherwise it would have to implement the current EU UK trade deal which would further complicate the border issues.

    I still feel that Scotland could make a success of independence but it would have been less complicated if the UK had remained in the EU .

    The Nats are not helped by things like THIS

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/apr/29/eu-should-hang-out-welcome-sign-for-independent-scotland-letter-signed-cultural-figures


    Ian McEwan the Strasbourg-Syndrome-Suffering and-very-English novelist eagerly seeking the break up of the UK via the EU, just because

    He disnae give us a fuck about the Scots, He just wants to hurt Brexiteers, "Britain" and Boris-Johnson-loving England. Hence his total disregard for any Scots who might want to be independent of both the EU and Britain? Or Scots who think this is all debatable? They don't matter, of course

    I find it hard to distinguish between McEwan's position and actual treason. He wants to hurt his own country in any way possible
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Somewhat ironic that Brexit both helped but could eventually harm the chances of the SNP winning another Indy vote and re-joining the EU.

    The long drawn out tortuous EU UK negotiations are likely to be even more fraught if Scotland decides on independence and you can’t wish away the complexities of what would happen at the border .

    The better fit for Scotland might be as an EEA member like Norway , having complete control over fisheries and agriculture and out of the customs union but in the single market . Otherwise it would have to implement the current EU UK trade deal which would further complicate the border issues.

    I still feel that Scotland could make a success of independence but it would have been less complicated if the UK had remained in the EU .

    The Nats are not helped by things like THIS

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/apr/29/eu-should-hang-out-welcome-sign-for-independent-scotland-letter-signed-cultural-figures


    Ian McEwan the Strasbourg-Syndrome-Suffering and-very-English novelist eagerly seeking the break up of the UK via the EU, just because

    He disnae give us a fuck about the Scots, He just wants to hurt Brexiteers, "Britain" and Boris-Johnson-loving England. Hence his total disregard for any Scots who might want to be independent of both the EU and Britain? Or Scots who think this is all debatable? They don't matter, of course

    I find it hard to distinguish between McEwan's position and actual treason. He wants to hurt his own country in any way possible
    I find Ian McEwan's novels unreadable.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,227
    Ciao, fellow PBers, am off to a diner date with a beautiful woman (two actually) first time since pre-pandemic!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Brazil will overtake the UK in the somewhat dubious worldometer stats tommorow.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Somewhat ironic that Brexit both helped but could eventually harm the chances of the SNP winning another Indy vote and re-joining the EU.

    The long drawn out tortuous EU UK negotiations are likely to be even more fraught if Scotland decides on independence and you can’t wish away the complexities of what would happen at the border .

    The better fit for Scotland might be as an EEA member like Norway , having complete control over fisheries and agriculture and out of the customs union but in the single market . Otherwise it would have to implement the current EU UK trade deal which would further complicate the border issues.

    I still feel that Scotland could make a success of independence but it would have been less complicated if the UK had remained in the EU .

    The Nats are not helped by things like THIS

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/apr/29/eu-should-hang-out-welcome-sign-for-independent-scotland-letter-signed-cultural-figures


    Ian McEwan the Strasbourg-Syndrome-Suffering and-very-English novelist eagerly seeking the break up of the UK via the EU, just because

    He disnae give us a fuck about the Scots, He just wants to hurt Brexiteers, "Britain" and Boris-Johnson-loving England. Hence his total disregard for any Scots who might want to be independent of both the EU and Britain? Or Scots who think this is all debatable? They don't matter, of course

    I find it hard to distinguish between McEwan's position and actual treason. He wants to hurt his own country in any way possible
    Launching the SNP manifesto earlier this month, the party leader and first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, suggested that moves to re-enter the EU would be automatic after a yes vote on independence, rather than requiring an additional referendum, stating that “the vast majority of people in Scotland want to rejoin the EU”.

    Is vast majority like how a generation is a few years?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    stjohn said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Written by my old Headmaster no less
    Did he do one for you too?
    Please, please share.
    I did have him for Latin for a few lessons in my first year, don't think I got a report though
    I've just come across this old school report for a pupil called "Hyufd".

    "Hyufd has demonstrated himself to be an able pupil this term and a keen, industrious and reliable supporter of the party line. But he has small Latin and less Greek."
    However, he does display an intimate knowledge of Imperial approval ratings during the Julio-Claudian dynasty...

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    This seems similar to the disposable component shortages which have hampered vaccine production.

    How blackouts, fires, and a pandemic are driving shortages of pipette tips — and hobbling science
    https://www.statnews.com/2021/04/28/pipette-tips-shortage/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    Pretty good SOTU from Biden.
    Republican response was incoherent garbage.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,755

    HYUFD said:

    No surges to a 7% lead over Yes in new Comres Scottish independence poll

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1387534876564467712?s=20

    I have been saying for sometime that support for independence is falling and I expect it to continue for reason I have already stated
    Recent polling in both Scotland and Northern Ireland suggest a shift back towards staying within the UK.
  • pingping Posts: 3,724
    edited April 2021
    Interesting 3 part podcast ‘Pariah’ with/about Harvey Proctor via tortoise media
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    The fact that they will not reveal who initially paid for the lavish works – or whether Johnson is paying back a loan – has baffled MPs and cabinet ministers. “I don’t know myself what happened, but I am not sure it wouldn’t be better to be upfront now,” one cabinet minister said.

    Another MP said they thought the current dance around the use of present tense in the statements by Downing Street “will make people think there is something more serious to hide”. Therein lies the danger for Johnson and his Conservative government.

    It is not just official investigations that Tories fear could cause long-term permanent damage – but some of the throwaway comments that have been used to justify the scandal, which penetrate deep into middle England. One is the description by friends of Symonds that the previous flat had been turned by Theresa May into a “John Lewis nightmare” – a subtle but brutal class signifier. Another is the comment by Sarah Vine, the columnist and wife of Michael Gove, that a prime minister could not be expected to “live in a skip” – despite images from May’s time as prime minister of gleaming glass tables and wood panelling that looks distinctly un-skiplike.

    It may seem trivial, but careless lines can be the kind people remember. Politics is often more complicated than whether certain things turn the polls the following week, what matters is the impressions that formulate over time.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    No surges to a 7% lead over Yes in new Comres Scottish independence poll

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1387534876564467712?s=20

    I have been saying for sometime that support for independence is falling and I expect it to continue for reason I have already stated
    Recent polling in both Scotland and Northern Ireland suggest a shift back towards staying within the UK.
    "We would have had a much higher death toll outside the UK" is a powerful argument for the Union. Probably the first potent argument in favour most have had to consider when weighing it up.

    "FREEEEEDOM - to die in greater numbers." Sobering, even for the Scots.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    The headline offence is snobbery: to the vast majority of Conservative voters, possibly just about all of them, John Lewis furniture represents something of a pinnacle. To homeowners, John Lewis is the idealised court portrait of the Ikea flat pack they actually bought; to renters, it is a world away from landlord-assembled tat. It makes Johnson and Symonds seem scornful, remote and painfully clueless about the lives of their compatriots.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    edited April 2021
    Lol @ John Lewis & Partners
    @JohnLewisRetail
    Time for an interiors refresh? 🛋✨We pride our Home Design Service on having something for *almost* everyone 👀
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    The Daily Mail alleged Mr Johnson – who earns £150,000 a year as PM – was becoming alarmed at the escalating bill in February last year, as the coronavirus crisis was unfolding.

    He is said to have told aides: ‘The cost is totally out of control – she’s buying gold wallpaper!’

    Ms Symonds is believed to have hired upmarket interior designer, Lulu Lytle, whose Soane Britain company sells ‘Yellow Gold’ and ‘Old Gold’ wallpaper.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Telegraph: Prime Minister, be warned: you besmirch the good name of John Lewis at your peril
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    IanB2 said:

    The Daily Mail alleged Mr Johnson – who earns £150,000 a year as PM – was becoming alarmed at the escalating bill in February last year, as the coronavirus crisis was unfolding.

    He is said to have told aides: ‘The cost is totally out of control – she’s buying gold wallpaper!’

    Ms Symonds is believed to have hired upmarket interior designer, Lulu Lytle, whose Soane Britain company sells ‘Yellow Gold’ and ‘Old Gold’ wallpaper.

    Based on the Wilton Diptych, not exactly going to be covering Trump's bling mansions any time soon:

    https://www.soane.co.uk/fabrics-wallpapers/wallpaper/sophie-coryndon-wilton-vine-wallpaper-yellow-gold
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    John Lewis today shared a photo of one of their delivery lorries park outside Downing Street with the caption: 'Good thing we have a recycling service for old pre-loved furniture’.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Daily Mail: Some reports suggest the upgrades hit the £200,000 mark, while a leaked email suggested Tory peer Lord Brownlow was making a £58,000 donation to the Conservatives 'to cover the payments the party has already made on behalf of the soon-to-be-formed 'Downing Street Trust'.

    Mr Johnson's former adviser Dominic Cummings said he told Mr Johnson 'his plans to have donors secretly pay for the renovation were unethical, foolish, possibly illegal'.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    edited April 2021
    Reactions to the clown’s ‘John Lewis nightmare’ gaffe:

    I dream of a series of life choices that leave me furious at my paltry John Lewis furniture

    Can't quite get my head around Carrie Symonds reportedly looking down on 'John Lewis furniture'. I think we had our wedding list there. For all but the tiniest section of the population, John Lewis is posh.

    One of the most offensive details of the PM/Carrie Symonds reno scandal is that they had the flat redone because it was a “John Lewis nightmare”. That nightmare is aspirational and out of reach for very many people in this country. And nobody is paying for their gaffs

    I have an idea for this year’s John Lewis Christmas advert. ‘Carrie Symonds wouldn’t like my sofa.’ That’s it.

    The phrase ‘John Lewis furniture nightmare’ somehow insults 90% of British people.
    [Financial Times]


  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Boris Johnson’s anti-John Lewis flat refurb has united the nation – by alienating everyone The shop represents the simple pursuit of working hard for things that are of good quality. It is no surprise that this is not a concept familiar to the Prime Minister
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    IanB2 said:

    Reactions to the clown’s ‘John Lewis nightmare’ gaffe:

    I dream of a series of life choices that leave me furious at my paltry John Lewis furniture

    Can't quite get my head around Carrie Symonds reportedly looking down on 'John Lewis furniture'. I think we had our wedding list there. For all but the tiniest section of the population, John Lewis is posh.

    One of the most offensive details of the PM/Carrie Symonds reno scandal is that they had the flat redone because it was a “John Lewis nightmare”. That nightmare is aspirational and out of reach for very many people in this country. And nobody is paying for their gaffs

    I have an idea for this year’s John Lewis Christmas advert. ‘Carrie Symonds wouldn’t like my sofa.’ That’s it.

    The phrase ‘John Lewis furniture nightmare’ somehow insults 90% of British people.
    [Financial Times]


    For a former head of Conservative party communications to make these types of errors is truly bizarre. One fears that Boris was in a position where he did not feel able to say no, quite possibly because of some peccadillo on his part, and her misjudgment has created a bit of a nightmare for him.

    I still think it vanishingly unlikely that this will lead to Boris's downfall but it sure as hell will have done serious damage to their relationship. If I was advising Carrie I would be warning her to be particularly careful in the proximity of any passing buses.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,729
    IanB2 said:

    Daily Mail: Some reports suggest the upgrades hit the £200,000 mark, while a leaked email suggested Tory peer Lord Brownlow was making a £58,000 donation to the Conservatives 'to cover the payments the party has already made on behalf of the soon-to-be-formed 'Downing Street Trust'.

    Mr Johnson's former adviser Dominic Cummings said he told Mr Johnson 'his plans to have donors secretly pay for the renovation were unethical, foolish, possibly illegal'.

    Well, he should know.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,122
    Looks like IanB2 is the new Scott'n Paste. Overeach alarm sounding.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    The story here is not that a leading Tory is an out of touch snob, it’s that we know they are due to some direct quotes. The story here is that someone close to Boris is trying to bring him down. What do they want? Why now? This is clearly personal.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    We pay our Prime Minister a comparatively low salary for the job thev do.
    It is expected that they live above the shop.
    They have a tenure that can be short, end suddenly or last. The end date often is not of their choosing.
    It is absurd that decorating and furnishing is not a central government expense. It can be capped at a generous level, above which the PM pays.
    I don't expect any one of these to live with the interior choices of the former
    Thatcher Major Blair Brown Cameron May Johnson
    I would like the PM to have the home they use presented in a way they enjoy. They do long hours, the family should be comfortable in the surroundings.

    The whole thing is basically stupid, dull, boring, insignificant and belittling of the media in particular apart from the fact there are rules which should be adhered to. Stupid rules so maybe we should change the rules for the future.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052
    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Reactions to the clown’s ‘John Lewis nightmare’ gaffe:

    I dream of a series of life choices that leave me furious at my paltry John Lewis furniture

    Can't quite get my head around Carrie Symonds reportedly looking down on 'John Lewis furniture'. I think we had our wedding list there. For all but the tiniest section of the population, John Lewis is posh.

    One of the most offensive details of the PM/Carrie Symonds reno scandal is that they had the flat redone because it was a “John Lewis nightmare”. That nightmare is aspirational and out of reach for very many people in this country. And nobody is paying for their gaffs

    I have an idea for this year’s John Lewis Christmas advert. ‘Carrie Symonds wouldn’t like my sofa.’ That’s it.

    The phrase ‘John Lewis furniture nightmare’ somehow insults 90% of British people.
    [Financial Times]


    For a former head of Conservative party communications to make these types of errors is truly bizarre. One fears that Boris was in a position where he did not feel able to say no, quite possibly because of some peccadillo on his part, and her misjudgment has created a bit of a nightmare for him.

    I still think it vanishingly unlikely that this will lead to Boris's downfall but it sure as hell will have done serious damage to their relationship. If I was advising Carrie I would be warning her to be particularly careful in the proximity of any passing buses.
    It looks like those were very expensive violin lessons.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    philiph said:

    We pay our Prime Minister a comparatively low salary for the job thev do.
    It is expected that they live above the shop.
    They have a tenure that can be short, end suddenly or last. The end date often is not of their choosing.
    It is absurd that decorating and furnishing is not a central government expense. It can be capped at a generous level, above which the PM pays.
    I don't expect any one of these to live with the interior choices of the former
    Thatcher Major Blair Brown Cameron May Johnson
    I would like the PM to have the home they use presented in a way they enjoy. They do long hours, the family should be comfortable in the surroundings.

    The whole thing is basically stupid, dull, boring, insignificant and belittling of the media in particular apart from the fact there are rules which should be adhered to. Stupid rules so maybe we should change the rules for the future.

    Are you seriously saying that someone on 150k pa + a 30k a year allowance and no rent to pay cannot afford to decorate a flat?

    Are you saying it’s ok that various unknown people are able to give leading politicians gifts worth tens and hundreds of thousands of pounds and we should all take on trust that it’s all out of the goodness of their heart?

    An interesting point of view.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Good morning again. And a nice bright one again.
    Inclined to agree that this in itself won't bring an end to PM Johnson's reign. However, losing his temper in the Commons wasn't a good look, as well as the snobbery.
    I agree that a PM should have the flat that they like; it's not Army Married Quarters. However an allowance of £30k does sound, to a lot of people, a lot, particularly for something that's in pretty good nick in the first place,
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    philiph said:

    We pay our Prime Minister a comparatively low salary for the job thev do.
    It is expected that they live above the shop.
    They have a tenure that can be short, end suddenly or last. The end date often is not of their choosing.
    It is absurd that decorating and furnishing is not a central government expense. It can be capped at a generous level, above which the PM pays.
    I don't expect any one of these to live with the interior choices of the former
    Thatcher Major Blair Brown Cameron May Johnson
    I would like the PM to have the home they use presented in a way they enjoy. They do long hours, the family should be comfortable in the surroundings.

    The whole thing is basically stupid, dull, boring, insignificant and belittling of the media in particular apart from the fact there are rules which should be adhered to. Stupid rules so maybe we should change the rules for the future.

    £30,000 of taxpayers’ money for decoration and furnishings, per year, for their private flat (not public rooms and offices) isn’t enough?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    felix said:

    Looks like IanB2 is the new Scott'n Paste. Overeach alarm sounding.

    Check the news. The story of the John Lewis gaffe is spreading around the world, and across local newspaper sites the length of the country. And the store is doing a great job stirring the pot and winning free publicity. We are witnessing the birth of a meme.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Foxy said:

    philiph said:

    We pay our Prime Minister a comparatively low salary for the job thev do.
    It is expected that they live above the shop.
    They have a tenure that can be short, end suddenly or last. The end date often is not of their choosing.
    It is absurd that decorating and furnishing is not a central government expense. It can be capped at a generous level, above which the PM pays.
    I don't expect any one of these to live with the interior choices of the former
    Thatcher Major Blair Brown Cameron May Johnson
    I would like the PM to have the home they use presented in a way they enjoy. They do long hours, the family should be comfortable in the surroundings.

    The whole thing is basically stupid, dull, boring, insignificant and belittling of the media in particular apart from the fact there are rules which should be adhered to. Stupid rules so maybe we should change the rules for the future.

    Err, it is a central government expense. £30 000 per annum, and beyond that the PM pays. Therin lies the problem. Johnson didn't pay, at least not until he was caught.

    To put it into perspective, that annual decorating allowance is more than median annual income in this country.
    Well quite. The idea he’s on the breadline is absurd. The public has a right to know the gifts received by our politicians whether they come in a brown envelope or not.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    A very Boris cut....

    Foreign aid: UK reduces £154m UN family planning pledge
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56924128
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Reactions to the clown’s ‘John Lewis nightmare’ gaffe:

    I dream of a series of life choices that leave me furious at my paltry John Lewis furniture

    Can't quite get my head around Carrie Symonds reportedly looking down on 'John Lewis furniture'. I think we had our wedding list there. For all but the tiniest section of the population, John Lewis is posh.

    One of the most offensive details of the PM/Carrie Symonds reno scandal is that they had the flat redone because it was a “John Lewis nightmare”. That nightmare is aspirational and out of reach for very many people in this country. And nobody is paying for their gaffs

    I have an idea for this year’s John Lewis Christmas advert. ‘Carrie Symonds wouldn’t like my sofa.’ That’s it.

    The phrase ‘John Lewis furniture nightmare’ somehow insults 90% of British people.
    [Financial Times]


    For a former head of Conservative party communications to make these types of errors is truly bizarre. One fears that Boris was in a position where he did not feel able to say no, quite possibly because of some peccadillo on his part, and her misjudgment has created a bit of a nightmare for him.

    I still think it vanishingly unlikely that this will lead to Boris's downfall but it sure as hell will have done serious damage to their relationship. If I was advising Carrie I would be warning her to be particularly careful in the proximity of any passing buses.
    It looks like those were very expensive violin lessons.
    ...when all he learnt was to fiddle!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,729

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Reactions to the clown’s ‘John Lewis nightmare’ gaffe:

    I dream of a series of life choices that leave me furious at my paltry John Lewis furniture

    Can't quite get my head around Carrie Symonds reportedly looking down on 'John Lewis furniture'. I think we had our wedding list there. For all but the tiniest section of the population, John Lewis is posh.

    One of the most offensive details of the PM/Carrie Symonds reno scandal is that they had the flat redone because it was a “John Lewis nightmare”. That nightmare is aspirational and out of reach for very many people in this country. And nobody is paying for their gaffs

    I have an idea for this year’s John Lewis Christmas advert. ‘Carrie Symonds wouldn’t like my sofa.’ That’s it.

    The phrase ‘John Lewis furniture nightmare’ somehow insults 90% of British people.
    [Financial Times]


    For a former head of Conservative party communications to make these types of errors is truly bizarre. One fears that Boris was in a position where he did not feel able to say no, quite possibly because of some peccadillo on his part, and her misjudgment has created a bit of a nightmare for him.

    I still think it vanishingly unlikely that this will lead to Boris's downfall but it sure as hell will have done serious damage to their relationship. If I was advising Carrie I would be warning her to be particularly careful in the proximity of any passing buses.
    It looks like those were very expensive violin lessons.
    ...when all he learnt was to fiddle!
    Take a bow.
  • Labour down 2 points

    That cannot be right surely

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1387554718621315083?s=19
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,728
    #Rattled "Normally we get to see the careful construct of the happy-go-lucky joker, but here he was stripped back to something much uglier: the primal rage of the narcissistic teenager who has been caught out and has no place left to hide" #AngryClown https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/apr/28/primal-rage-at-pmqs-as-boris-johnson-the-joker-is-unmasked-keir-starmer
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    La Repubblica: LONDON - From the "sofagate" by Ursula Von der Leyen to the "cushion-gate" by Boris Johnson.

    This time, however, he is the accused, in one case, that of the renovation of the two apartments at 10 and 11 Downing Street (including new and precious wallpapers and cushions) which is growing more and more. And that today put him on the ropes also in Parliament, during the question time on Wednesday in the House of Commons.
  • Poor headlines for independence supporters in Scotland

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1387534876564467712?s=19
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    IanB2 said:

    felix said:

    Looks like IanB2 is the new Scott'n Paste. Overeach alarm sounding.

    Check the news. The story of the John Lewis gaffe is spreading around the world, and across local newspaper sites the length of the country. And the store is doing a great job stirring the pot and winning free publicity. We are witnessing the birth of a meme.
    What will worry them is the idea being put about that they are not posh. Peter Jones is Sloane heaven.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Thread:

    9. Assuming stocks were split 50/50 EU/UK, the number of vaccines exported to the EU would have been maybe 1.5 - 2 million a week. Not enough to make a significant improvement to the EU rollout. But enough to hinder the UK's rollout significantly.

    10. So we now see litigation from the EU seeking to compel vaccine supplies from a firm whose reputation has been dragged through the mud, whose vaccine it has tarnished & whose premises it has raided, along with seizure of goods.

    12. In terms of the EU's vaccine procurement with other firms: Valneva has recently declined to supply & Novavax also declined an EU order a few weeks ago. Flirtation with the Sputnik vaccine has hit an obstacle over quality control & the Chinese vaccines have efficacy issues.

    15. So the EU cannot win, no matter the outcome of the litigation.

    If, as expected, the EU loses, it will look like a vindictive neighbour, hell bent on causing harm & disruption to the UK & its people. UK cases were much higher than Europe's when vaccine demands were 1st made.

    15. If the EU wins, eyebrows will be raised mightily high throughout the pharmaceutical & legal world & Belgian jurisdiction will take a reputation hit. In a country with several pharma firms, I'd be surprised if Belgium succumb to pressure from the power of the EU.


    Starts here:

    https://twitter.com/BarristersHorse/status/1387595778764464131?s=20
  • There seems to be lot of noise over Boris wallpaper but for me the significant thing yesterday was his rejection at the dispatch box on his alleged covid comments

    If a tape or recording is produced that he did say those words than his has to resign
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,728

    ...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Poor headlines for independence supporters in Scotland

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1387534876564467712?s=19

    Love the selectivity of which ‘poor headlines’ get your attention and need to be commented on.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955

    Labour down 2 points

    That cannot be right surely

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1387554718621315083?s=19

    lol......
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715

    There seems to be lot of noise over Boris wallpaper but for me the significant thing yesterday was his rejection at the dispatch box on his alleged covid comments

    If a tape or recording is produced that he did say those words than his has to resign

    To be fair, it's about time someone did produce the evidence. You could say 'how about two trustworthy witnesses', but how many trustworthy people are likely to be around our current PM?
  • IanB2 said:

    felix said:

    Looks like IanB2 is the new Scott'n Paste. Overeach alarm sounding.

    Check the news. The story of the John Lewis gaffe is spreading around the world, and across local newspaper sites the length of the country. And the store is doing a great job stirring the pot and winning free publicity. We are witnessing the birth of a meme.
    You may be right though equally this could just be seen as a bubble story

    Anyway a week today the biggest UK wide poll since the GE takes place and let's see the verdict of the British people then

    I can say with confidence this site will be near overload next weekend
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Reactions to the clown’s ‘John Lewis nightmare’ gaffe:

    I dream of a series of life choices that leave me furious at my paltry John Lewis furniture

    Can't quite get my head around Carrie Symonds reportedly looking down on 'John Lewis furniture'. I think we had our wedding list there. For all but the tiniest section of the population, John Lewis is posh.

    One of the most offensive details of the PM/Carrie Symonds reno scandal is that they had the flat redone because it was a “John Lewis nightmare”. That nightmare is aspirational and out of reach for very many people in this country. And nobody is paying for their gaffs

    I have an idea for this year’s John Lewis Christmas advert. ‘Carrie Symonds wouldn’t like my sofa.’ That’s it.

    The phrase ‘John Lewis furniture nightmare’ somehow insults 90% of British people.
    [Financial Times]


    For a former head of Conservative party communications to make these types of errors is truly bizarre. One fears that Boris was in a position where he did not feel able to say no, quite possibly because of some peccadillo on his part, and her misjudgment has created a bit of a nightmare for him.

    I still think it vanishingly unlikely that this will lead to Boris's downfall but it sure as hell will have done serious damage to their relationship. If I was advising Carrie I would be warning her to be particularly careful in the proximity of any passing buses.
    It looks like those were very expensive violin lessons.
    ...when all he learnt was to fiddle!
    Take a bow.
    It's all in the fingering....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    edited April 2021

    There seems to be lot of noise over Boris wallpaper but for me the significant thing yesterday was his rejection at the dispatch box on his alleged covid comments

    If a tape or recording is produced that he did say those words than his has to resign

    To be fair, it's about time someone did produce the evidence. You could say 'how about two trustworthy witnesses', but how many trustworthy people are likely to be around our current PM?
    The fact that multiple people who were within earshot (and hence somewhere in the inner circle) are apparently prepared to testify on oath that they heard those exact words, is pretty strong evidence, surely?
This discussion has been closed.