Categories
In the betting punters now rate the chances of a Boris 2021 exit at 25% – politicalbetting.com
In the betting punters now rate the chances of a Boris 2021 exit at 25% – politicalbetting.com
Inevitably after the extraordinary manner in which Boris conducted himself at PMQs today there’s been an increase in speculation over when he will actually step aside. The betting on both the Smarkets (above) and Betfair exchanges rate this currently as a 25% chance.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Is THAT why the pooch keeps pissing on the carpet just before Boris starts chewing on it?
https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/politics/labour-suspends-14-members-including-peterborough-councillors-over-alleged-antisemitism-3217555
Looks as if the fens might need draining.
Governor Cuomo's aides spent months hiding the true pandemic death toll in nursing homes, according to the New York Times
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1387489687414132740
Either the Dutch have discovered far better treatments or their data is an honest as Russia's.
- Vaccine lovers, where they've reached 50% of adults jabbed at least once, and per day numbers remain consistently high. This is - frankly - the North East, the Midwest, Florida and the West Coast.
- The super sceptics, where only 30-33% of people have had at least one jab, and the numbers getting vaccinated fall every day. This is the Deep South.
- Everywhere else.
I think it's highly likely that Alabama and Mississippi will top out at less than 40% vaccinated.
It's also quite possible that most EU countries will have surpassed those states by the end of next week. (Finland, for example, has surpassed them even without using Sputnik-V.)
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1387512614029336579
However, as far as I am concerned if Boris goes then the party has Rishi, Truss, and Raab even Hunt so not a bad line up
And the possibility of a third woman leader
But it’s hard to imagine him leading the party into the next election.
That’s not a prediction, I just struggle to imagine it.
Are there any GOP politicians who are anti-vax advocates ?
Even Trump was vaccinated so it cannot be emulation of him.
So what happens if open anti-vaxxers try to primary GOP politicians in Alabama etc ?
#TomorrowsPapersToday
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1387515900992045059
share Jeffrey Lewis reworking a Ramones song on the subject of Covid vaccinations :
https://youtu.be/BP7hpYr93mc
And does anyone in the normal world actually use wallpaper still ?
Wasn't it a very 1970s thing ?
Or is it fashionable again among the nouveau chav ?
But to be fair who knows
Rishi trolling Boris
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9522739/Rishi-Sunak-redecorated-Downing-Street-flat-entirely-expense-Treasury-reveals.html?ito=push-notification&ci=145126&si=29556530&ai=9522739
One of the interminable jobs was stripping the wallpaper from the walls, while trying not to take too much of the plaster away. We had some sort of steaming machine.
Anyway, in the hallway, there were six layers of wallpaper, and we wondered how far back to the dawn of time (or 1884, when the house had been built) the earliest layer dated to.
At least several layers must have been laid down prior to the 70s.
He is about 4 foot seven, and could comfortably run under a weasel. She must be MICROSCOPIC
Very interesting and well-reasoned article in the Spectator, "How London will help Scotland get independence" - well worth a read, it makes sense to me: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-london-will-help-scotland-get-independence
However, that said, I have just looked into The Deceit for the first time in nearly ten years, and I am forced to admit it has a stonking opening line
"The taxi stopped in the City of the Dead."
Get IN.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/scotland-cannot-be-held-in-the-union-against-its-will
Very interesting that the Speccy is publishing such pieces. Mr Gove? But I remember what happened when similar arguments were tried in Labour - Wendy Alexander's 'Bring it on' strategy of an early indyref got her metaphorically defenestrated.
I do not believe Boris has the attention nor the desire to experience the loss of potential millions of pounds he can earn once out of office
Indeed, I am not sure he will lead into 2024
She wants Scotland to be indy but she actively wants London opinion to deliver this? She needs Sturgeon to be successful but she rejects her for timidity? And she thinks the English will all move to Glasgow to live in their social democratic paradise.
Oh.,... K......
Boris will refuse a vote, and that will remain Tory policy until 2024. Don't get over-excited
- has received close to 4 million vaccines from the Federal Government, but has put less than 2.5 million in the arms of its citizens
- Is averaging about 12-13,000 jabs a day, down 30% from last week, and down 60% from the levels of a month ago.
First jabs are now under 3,000 per day.
Currently just 30% of Alabaman adults have had at least one shot of the vaccine.
But at 3,000 a day (and dropping), that number is going to end up stalling at 35-36%.
HYUFD may scream into the wind that Boris will deny a referendum, but in this country we respect and love democratic conditions - and if its going to happen then better it happens now under our watch than handing the power to change the constitution to a Starmer.
RP is certifiably mad
And I speak as a proud Briton who adores the Hebrides and the Borders, some of the most stunning scenery on earth. And Glasgow and Edinburgh, at their best, are a couple of truly handsome cities, magnificent adornments to the nation. Glasgow in particular is overlooked. Its Victoriana is sublime
But... live there? In winter? Fuck off. London is bad enough, and it is a world city
I think we move in different circles - but then I meet the ones who move up here.
On a serious note, it's summer in London (and the SE more generally, but London especially with the heat off the concrete) that is the absolute killer for me. And I do like to have enough water to have a bath, water the garden, etc. without worrying all year round. Especially in 10-20 years time.
It seems to me to be eminently lose-able. A pandemic, a huge deficit, the EU looking much less attractive, the oil gone. You'd be led by Sturgeon, who wanes daily, and with Salmond lurking like some mad, drunken uncle who won't be thrown out of the wedding.
And that's it
This seems to me to be highly sub-optimal timing for a Sindy-vote. But maybe you think it is your last best chance?
If you lose again that's it for 30 years and London will (quite rightly) tell you to fuck off and start a civil war if you truly want to go
So, as an honest Nat (which you are, I feel): do you actually want a 2nd vote now?
To my mind Sturgeon's bet is best, wait another 5-10 years, chip away at Britishness, wait for a more opportune economic moment....
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Scotland-Survey-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-April-2021.xlsx
In 100 years Scotland may be like the Loire now (or like Labrador, if the Gulf Stream fails) but until then the SE of England has the nicest climate in the UK. Which is one main reason why most people try to live in the SE, if they come to Britain.
And many, many problems flow therefrom....
If Starmer gets in in 2024 and allows indyref2 that is up to him, I have never been opposed to PR anyway and neither have I been opposed to devomax, an English parliament or regional assemblies
Also it has come to light that the independence supporting greens are in no hurry, as they want HMG to pay the billions to decommission the oil fields and not Scotland as an independent country
And finally there does seem to be a move away from independence in the polling
Explain to me how that works ...
I asked you an honest question. It deserves a candid reply
I am a unionist. I do not want you to go. I hope and believe Boris will refuse a vote, for that reason. Don't even risk it. He's entirely justified in doing so ("a generation" etc)
However I can see arguments both ways, putting aside my unionist goggles. Let the SNP have their vote now, it probably falls, and that is it, and the SNP split terribly....
OR it could work out this way: the SNP seizes the chaos of Covid and Scotland rallies to an orgasmic partition, freeing itself of England, with the vaccine-jabbing-dominatrix at the helm? - I can see that panning out, too. This really MIGHT be your last best chance, before we drift too far from the EU and there is no way back for Scotland
What is your actual opinion? No waffle, please
Realize that wallpaper is still around, and that Martha Stewart types like to employ it with artistic effect about the premises. But do NOT run in such circles.
My impression is that wallpaper is a bigger deal in UK than US? How about rest of the world?
The UK is dead, but like a super-tanker, its momentum will keep it ticking along for a while yet.
"Scotland - it's better than Rochdale!" (Although since arriving he does seemed to have supped deeply from the cup of
KoolAidIrnBru....)No coming round' for you, you have always been as anti UK as Gerry Adams and as pro Scottish independence as Salmond and it is absurd for you to pretend otherwise!!
Rochdale should give it try - NOT. Unless he likes mixing his lager beer with orange Kool Aid.
Because the EU Titanic did such a shit job. They are welcome to run off to its malevolent embrace if they wish. But as to who is unshackling themselves from a corpse....
I would have thought the complete failure of all of their predictions might have led its followers to switch to something more rational such as the lizard people.
He always wants to be centre of attention.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/macron-dismisses-former-generals-warning-of-civil-war-in-france-qlzk9xs29
It seems strange to look at the US where there is an excess of supply over demand at lower levels of first doses completed.
No doubt I can expect nukes painted in Union Flags to rain down on the Emerald Isle
A non-story.
But I don't think I've seen a house with it this millennium.
At what point does the anti-vaxxer propaganda become the equivalent of shouting fire in a theatre?
We all understand the concept of the very limited examples of limitations on freedom of speech - incitement to violence and 'shouting fire in a crowded theatre' being the two most obvious examples. At what point - if ever - can we reasonably decide that the lies being perpetuated by the anti-vaxxers is so dangerous it counts as endangerment and that if people die as a consequence then those spreading the lies should be prosecuted?
I don't know the answer to this and perhaps the answer for me is never. But I think it is a debate at least worth having as some powerful figures continue to undermine the vaccination campaigns around the world.
For the moment, everyone is too busy enjoying their new found freedoms to care about who paid for whose wallpaper.
I also think we need a few more big pushes from the state, NHS and black, Muslim and other minority celebrities to get vaccine take up even higher. Prominent footballers like Marcus Rashford and Mo Salah taking the vaccine live on TV would be really helpful IMO.