politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ukip shares edging down with the pollster that got the May
YouGov, of course, was the most accurate pollster on the May 22nd Euro elections.
Comments
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England opener does well.0
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With Captain "Edge to slip" Cook, doubt a bookie will offer you a market on that..David_Evershed said:How likely is it that India's last wicket stand will be higher than England's first wicket stand?
Are India's bowlers better at batting than the England openers?0 -
Actually UKIP is the only party seeing its polling numbers rise. Labour is flatflining as are the Conservatives with Lib Dems ever falling. I could link to today's article on this but shan't. Statistical noise doesn't warrant much analysis.
Of course trade unions were a key force in the immigration restriction movement historically, the fact they no longer are and take the diametrically opposite position is proof of their capture by the militant tendency.0 -
You're right. The chart is a lie.FalseFlag said:Actually UKIP is the only party seeing its polling numbers rise. Labour is flatflining as are the Conservatives with Lib Dems ever falling. I could link to today's article on this but shan't. Statistical noise doesn't warrant much analysis.
Of course trade unions were a key force in the immigration restriction movement historically, the fact they no longer are and take the diametrically opposite position is proof of their capture by the militant tendency.
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Talking of "Cook" what happened to his Islands general election held today. Are the Dimbleby mob out there on a South Seas jolly ?Pulpstar said:
With Captain "Edge to slip" Cook, doubt a bookie will offer you a market on that..David_Evershed said:How likely is it that India's last wicket stand will be higher than England's first wicket stand?
Are India's bowlers better at batting than the England openers?
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On topic looks like noise to me - the data laws (Coalition ire) and strikes (Inexorably linked to Miliband/Labour) will help keep UKIP up for the moment.0
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Too early, too few yougov polls.
On other news today, after the portuguese banking crisis investors today are flocking to the amazing safety of cynk stocks (up another 10%).
Tells wonders about the sanity of the common folk.0 -
Cook Islands General Election (Provisional Results)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Islands_general_election,_2014
Tamarua Constituency - 23 votes each of two candidates !!0 -
JackW
A day or two ago you were promising an (ARSE) poll prediction.
I seem to have missed it. Could you repost here please.0 -
I said If ICM were so fantastic, how do we explain their 20% for ukip and 35% for Labour in the euros?Neil said:
I think it was TSE, apologies if I misremember, saying straight away that I was wrong to use a pollsters euro polling record as a guide to their GE accuracy
Yet the thread header relies on just that0 -
Ok .... after the fall of the last Indian wicket .... we may be some time.David_Evershed said:JackW
A day or two ago you were promising an (ARSE) poll prediction.
I seem to have missed it. Could you repost here please.
Titter ....
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It's over for UKIP - Time to disband and support Con to secure 2017 referendum.0
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Lib Dem Voice (quoting George Eaton in the New Statesman) is tipping Jo Swinson to replace Ed Davey as Sec of State at Energy in a reshuffle and Jenny Willott to take her job at Dept of Business, Innovation and Skills.
Not clear what would happen to Ed Davey - maybe he could replace Vince Cable?
Jo Swinson - future Lib Dem leader?0 -
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Change from 24th June Projection) :
Con 307 (-5) .. Lab 282 (+8) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 8 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 1 (-1) .. Respect 0 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 19 seats short of a majority
Labour 44 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - TCTC
Pudsey - TCTC
Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain
Cambridge - Likely LibDem Hold
Ipswich - TCTC
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold
Enfield - TCTC
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold (From Likely Con Hold)
Vale of Glamorgan - Likely Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - Likely Lab Hold (From TCTC)
Changes From 24th June - Great Yarmouth moves from Likely Con Hold to Con Hold and Ochil and South Perthshire moves from TCTC to Likely Lab Hold.
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500 votes
.......................................................................................
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors0 -
The Polling Observatory report for June said of UKIP:
"There is little evidence yet of a fall in Ukip support now the European Parliament elections have passed, confounding the expectations of pundits who believed the European election victory was the "peak Ukip moment". Our estimates have Farage's party at 14.8 per cent, down just 0.1 per cent on last month. "
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/pollingobservatory/100279233/ignore-the-juncker-bounce-and-the-labour-surge-polls-may-bounce-but-public-opinion-usually-doesnt/
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She'll be (temporarily) unemployed in less than a year.David_Evershed said:
Jo Swinson - future Lib Dem leader?0 -
@David_Evershed
As requested.
Essentially my ARSE will be published fortnightly, normally on a Tuesday at 9.00am until the New Year.0 -
I would prefer a like-with-like comparison - what would the month-to-month variability look like if the other months were based on figures published by the afternoon of the 10th of each month?
However, the expectation has always been that UKIP would fall back a little as the Euro elections were left behind, just as they did after the local elections in 2013. The question is whether they stabilise at a higher level than last year.
At the same time after the local elections last year (so mid-June since the elections were 20 days earlier last spring) the 10-day average in the YouGov polls was 13.1, a smidgen higher than this years average of 12.1.
It takes a lot of faith to believe that UKIP will poll below 10% in the 2015 GE, though.0 -
FPT
@Neil
Currently legislation requires action to be called within 4 weeks of the close of the ballot.
There is no need to mess around with timeframes.
Repeal of the Trade Disputes Act 1906 is the answer.
No person or organisation should be granted exemption from laws which apply to all others.
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You just have to believe.OblitusSumMe said:
It takes a lot of faith to believe that UKIP will poll below 10% in the 2015 GE, though.
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Uh oh - have been pointing this out to the Kippers and they don't like it "but we won a national election"
Peak Farage has passed. Hodges may be clothed yet.
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This is in incredible bad taste from the Socialist Worker.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/press/socialist-worker-called-to-apologise-over-vile-article-saying-eton-schoolboy-horatio-chapples-death-is-reason-to-save-the-polar-bears-9597931.html0 -
There was a thread on here last week showing that ukip were the only party to improve its score in the last monthOblitusSumMe said:I would prefer a like-with-like comparison - what would the month-to-month variability look like if the other months were based on figures published by the afternoon of the 10th of each month?
However, the expectation has always been that UKIP would fall back a little as the Euro elections were left behind, just as they did after the local elections in 2013. The question is whether they stabilise at a higher level than last year.
At the same time after the local elections last year (so mid-June since the elections were 20 days earlier last spring) the 10-day average in the YouGov polls was 13.1, a smidgen higher than this years average of 12.1.
It takes a lot of faith to believe that UKIP will poll below 10% in the 2015 GE, though.
People want them to fail so much don't they? Absolutely desperate0 -
Ukip just aren't scoring over 14 with YG anymore.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election0 -
The party or College?isam said:
There was a thread on here last week showing that ukip were the only party to improve its score in the last month.OblitusSumMe said:I would prefer a like-with-like comparison - what would the month-to-month variability look like if the other months were based on figures published by the afternoon of the 10th of each month?
However, the expectation has always been that UKIP would fall back a little as the Euro elections were left behind, just as they did after the local elections in 2013. The question is whether they stabilise at a higher level than last year.
At the same time after the local elections last year (so mid-June since the elections were 20 days earlier last spring) the 10-day average in the YouGov polls was 13.1, a smidgen higher than this years average of 12.1.
It takes a lot of faith to believe that UKIP will poll below 10% in the 2015 GE, though.
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Empty chamber for the EU Justice and Home Affairs debate in the HoC.
twitter.com/UKIP/status/487245214529376256/photo/10 -
Hmm, not sure we've got sufficient data to indicate that UKIP support is edging down, for now at least. On YouGov's figures it might have dropped a smidgen recently, but I can't see any consistent pattern of UKIP losing share with other pollsters.
I think we need to put this one in the 'need more data' box.0 -
Yes. It's an important point. Shocking as it may be, elections also measure public support.TGOHF said:Uh oh - have been pointing this out to the Kippers and they don't like it "but we won a national election"
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Oh what the Lib Dems would do for a Yougov chart like that over H1 !!0
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Bingo, more amusing is Labour arresting their relentless 2014 slide for a whole month and the Ed surge hysteria it provoked.anotherDave said:The Polling Observatory report for June said of UKIP:
"There is little evidence yet of a fall in Ukip support now the European Parliament elections have passed, confounding the expectations of pundits who believed the European election victory was the "peak Ukip moment". Our estimates have Farage's party at 14.8 per cent, down just 0.1 per cent on last month. "
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/pollingobservatory/100279233/ignore-the-juncker-bounce-and-the-labour-surge-polls-may-bounce-but-public-opinion-usually-doesnt/
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Haha 2 weeks!TGOHF said:Ukip just aren't scoring over 14 with YG anymore.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Comments like that, intended to put ukip down, only show how far they've come0 -
That was June. This is July and we've already had 8 YouGov pollsanotherDave said:The Polling Observatory report for June said of UKIP:
"There is little evidence yet of a fall in Ukip support now the European Parliament elections have passed, confounding the expectations of pundits who believed the European election victory was the "peak Ukip moment". Our estimates have Farage's party at 14.8 per cent, down just 0.1 per cent on last month. "
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/pollingobservatory/100279233/ignore-the-juncker-bounce-and-the-labour-surge-polls-may-bounce-but-public-opinion-usually-doesnt/
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There is a significance to the UKIP VI share which we may be missing.Richard_Nabavi said:Hmm, not sure we've got sufficient data to indicate that UKIP support is edging down, for now at least. On YouGov's figures it might have dropped a smidgen recently, but I can't see any consistent pattern of UKIP losing share with other pollsters.
I think we need to put this one in the 'need more data' box.
OfCom carried out a wide consultation last year before ruling that UK broadcasters (excl. the BBC) should treat UKIP as a major party for the EP elections in all areas except Scotland.
A careful reading of the consultation and ruling documents show that a de facto threshold of 10% consistently achieved in opinion polls was one of the key benchmarks for deciding on major party status.
OfCom have announced no plans to carry out a futher consultation or make a new ruling for the General Election, but have said that, if they do make a ruling, it will be in October 2014.
My hunch is that if UKIP are still above 10% in the Opinion Polls come October there will be a stronger case for the party to be granted major status. If below, then OfCom not granting major status would be consistent with the results of the consultation and rulings made for the EP elections.
This is one to watch as it looks like being close with the outcome being significant.
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Real votes don't matter on hereanotherDave said:
Yes. It's an important point. Shocking as it may be, elections also measure public support.TGOHF said:Uh oh - have been pointing this out to the Kippers and they don't like it "but we won a national election"
Skewed samples of political nerds or extrapolations count for more
And when a party improves by 600% in a non friendly area with an apparently voter turn off of a candidate... it's a failure0 -
Find the last 2 week period when they didn't score 14 or above once..isam said:
Haha 2 weeks!TGOHF said:Ukip just aren't scoring over 14 with YG anymore.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Comments like that, intended to put ukip down, only show how far they've come
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Ten percent in the polls on a consistent basis would seem to be very reasonable logic from the electoral commission.AveryLP said:
There is a significance to the UKIP VI share which we may be missing.Richard_Nabavi said:Hmm, not sure we've got sufficient data to indicate that UKIP support is edging down, for now at least. On YouGov's figures it might have dropped a smidgen recently, but I can't see any consistent pattern of UKIP losing share with other pollsters.
I think we need to put this one in the 'need more data' box.
OfCom carried out a wide consultation last year before ruling that UK broadcasters (excl. the BBC) should treat UKIP as a major party for the EP elections in all areas except Scotland.
A careful reading of the consultation and ruling documents show that a de facto threshold of 10% consistently achieved in opinion polls was one of the key benchmarks for deciding on major party status.
OfCom have announced no plans to carry out a futher consultation or make a new ruling for the General Election, but have said that, if they do make a ruling, it will be in October 2014.
My hunch is that if UKIP are still above 10% in the Opinion Polls come October there will be a strong case for the party to be granted major status. If below, then OfCom not granting major status would be consistent with the results of the consultation and rulings made for the EP elections.
This is one to watch as it looks like being close with the outcome being significant.0 -
Sure Ed is all set to sweep into Downing Street, never mind the very strong forward looking economic indicators, the well established historical relationship between unemployment, inflation, interest rates and wages on voting intentions nor indeed Ed's own dire personal ratings. Of course the fantastically unpopular Lib Dems with their wildly out of touch policies on Europe and immigration means they are well due a come back.
Sure.0 -
Oh pity poor Harry! So desperate for those pesky kippers to failTGOHF said:
Find the last 2 week period when they didn't score 14 or above once..isam said:
Haha 2 weeks!TGOHF said:Ukip just aren't scoring over 14 with YG anymore.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Comments like that, intended to put ukip down, only show how far they've come0 -
It was I.isam said:
I said If ICM were so fantastic, how do we explain their 20% for ukip and 35% for Labour in the euros?Neil said:
I think it was TSE, apologies if I misremember, saying straight away that I was wrong to use a pollsters euro polling record as a guide to their GE accuracy
Yet the thread header relies on just that
I'll let you in to a little secret.
Mike and myself don't always agree, we do have differing opinions.
My opinions are just that, opinions, not gospel, you and everyone else are free to disagree.
Although this next opinion is a fact.
The England cricket team are a great shower of Ed Miliband
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What with this and the sniffing, you've got to wonder...
http://order-order.com/2014/07/10/ed-miliband-ive-got-my-eyes-on-you0 -
Stick to the facts old bean. YG just can't find as many kippers as they could - they are like North Sea cod.isam said:
Oh pity poor Harry! So desperate for those pesky kippers to failTGOHF said:
Find the last 2 week period when they didn't score 14 or above once..isam said:
Haha 2 weeks!TGOHF said:Ukip just aren't scoring over 14 with YG anymore.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Comments like that, intended to put ukip down, only show how far they've come
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"The England cricket team are a great shower of Ed Miliband "
Please can we have the like button back? Pretty, please? If not the like button maybe the, "Thanks, I just spluttered my tea over the keyboard" button.0 -
Ed's just plain weird, isn't he?Anorak said:What with this and the sniffing, you've got to wonder...
http://order-order.com/2014/07/10/ed-miliband-ive-got-my-eyes-on-you0 -
Looks like it was the second half of March. Is that a long time ago, or not?TGOHF said:
Find the last 2 week period when they didn't score 14 or above once..isam said:
Haha 2 weeks!TGOHF said:Ukip just aren't scoring over 14 with YG anymore.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Comments like that, intended to put ukip down, only show how far they've come0 -
Obamacare proving to be a real success.
Almost ten million fewer Americans are uninsured: http://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/issue-briefs/2014/jul/Health-Coverage-Access-ACA
Medicare costs have fallen by $1,000 per participant:
http://www.vox.com/2014/7/9/5883843/the-amazing-mysterious-decline-in-medicares-price-tag0 -
Fair enough, just didn't see you correcting Mike as you did meTheScreamingEagles said:
It was I.isam said:
I said If ICM were so fantastic, how do we explain their 20% for ukip and 35% for Labour in the euros?Neil said:
I think it was TSE, apologies if I misremember, saying straight away that I was wrong to use a pollsters euro polling record as a guide to their GE accuracy
Yet the thread header relies on just that
I'll let you in to a little secret.
Mike and myself don't always agree, we do have differing opinions.
My opinions are just that, opinions, not gospel, you and everyone else are free to disagree.
Although this next opinion is a fact.
The England cricket team are a great shower of Ed Miliband0 -
India 3.8/3.85
Considering they have
451 runs on the fricking board
England are batting last on this pitch
Rain forecast is sporadic at best and doubt it will cost many overs
India have decent spinners
That's a nice price right now.0 -
Obviously a quiet day politically.
A graph designed to show a tiny, and possibly MOE, fall. The supposition could be correct because we would expect a rise up to the Euros and a fall afterwards - unless Europe stays in the news, and particularly if the EC go off on one of their more barmy brainwaves.
Junckergate may have slowed the expected slight fall, but without error bars the graph is evidence more of a wish-fulfillment fantasy.
The meaningful graph will be August and September, and then post the party conferences.
My unscientific guess? A gradual fall to the Ukip conference, a slight boost then and a gradual fall to about 11% by next May. But all dependent on Europe behaving in the meantime - a probably forlorn hope for the Europhiles.0 -
They will probably be all oou for 460 as i had a bet earlier today at evens on over 460Pulpstar said:India 3.8/3.85
Considering
England are batting last on this pitch
Rain forecast is sporadic at best and doubt it will cost many overs
India have decent spinners (I think)
That's a nice price right now.
Gave the bet up 3 hours ago but getting close now0 -
This is not margin of error stuff. It is based on 8 polls with total sample size of about 15kCD13 said:
Obviously a quiet day politically.
A graph designed to show a tiny, and possibly MOE, fall. The supposition could be correct because we would expect a rise up to the Euros and a fall afterwards - unless Europe stays in the news, and particularly if the EC go off on one of their more barmy brainwaves.
Junckergate may have slowed the expected slight fall, but without error bars the graph is evidence more of a wish-fulfillment fantasy.
The meaningful graph will be August and September, and then post the party conferences.
My unscientific guess? A gradual fall to the Ukip conference, a slight boost then and a gradual fall to about 11% by next May. But all dependent on Europe behaving in the meantime - a probably forlorn hope for the Europhiles.
This is not a tiny fall. From 14% in June to 12.1% in the first 8 polls of July.
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Ooh bold means told!MikeSmithson said:
This is not margin of error stuff. It is based on 8 polls with total sample size of about 15kCD13 said:
Obviously a quiet day politically.
A graph designed to show a tiny, and possibly MOE, fall. The supposition could be correct because we would expect a rise up to the Euros and a fall afterwards - unless Europe stays in the news, and particularly if the EC go off on one of their more barmy brainwaves.
Junckergate may have slowed the expected slight fall, but without error bars the graph is evidence more of a wish-fulfillment fantasy.
The meaningful graph will be August and September, and then post the party conferences.
My unscientific guess? A gradual fall to the Ukip conference, a slight boost then and a gradual fall to about 11% by next May. But all dependent on Europe behaving in the meantime - a probably forlorn hope for the Europhiles.
This is not a tiny fall. From 14% in June to 12.1% in the first 8 polls of July.0 -
Is the graph using the unrounded Yougov weighted figures though ?MikeSmithson said:
This is not margin of error stuff. It is based on 8 polls with total sample size of about 15kCD13 said:
Obviously a quiet day politically.
A graph designed to show a tiny, and possibly MOE, fall. The supposition could be correct because we would expect a rise up to the Euros and a fall afterwards - unless Europe stays in the news, and particularly if the EC go off on one of their more barmy brainwaves.
Junckergate may have slowed the expected slight fall, but without error bars the graph is evidence more of a wish-fulfillment fantasy.
The meaningful graph will be August and September, and then post the party conferences.
My unscientific guess? A gradual fall to the Ukip conference, a slight boost then and a gradual fall to about 11% by next May. But all dependent on Europe behaving in the meantime - a probably forlorn hope for the Europhiles.
This is not a tiny fall. From 14% in June to 12.1% in the first 8 polls of July.0 -
What bets should we be having on the back of this info Mike?
Ukip under 10%?
LDs to bt Ukip?
Ukip not to win a seat?
Anŷ value?0 -
Mr Smithson,
You may well be right but for us geeks, what is the standard error and the 'p' value?
And as it happens, I would expect it to be falling slightly.0 -
The 1906 Act is already repealed. The principle you advocate, however, is exactly right. The Conspiracy and Protection of Property Act 1875 remains the best way to deal with conspiracies in restraint of trade.AveryLP said:There is no need to mess around with timeframes.
Repeal of the Trade Disputes Act 1906 is the answer.
No person or organisation should be granted exemption from laws which apply to all others.0 -
Bugger 4 runs short. Mind you 3 wkts straight after lunch made my evens bet a 100/1 shot0
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Unlucky !bigjohnowls said:
They will probably be all oou for 460 as i had a bet earlier today at evens on over 460Pulpstar said:India 3.8/3.85
Considering
England are batting last on this pitch
Rain forecast is sporadic at best and doubt it will cost many overs
India have decent spinners (I think)
That's a nice price right now.
Gave the bet up 3 hours ago but getting close now0 -
Pulpstar's book at innings change:
England
+£4.99
India
+£62.41
Draw
+£3.77
Expected current value: +£18.210 -
I'd say that is a long time but 3 times that until the election.OblitusSumMe said:
Looks like it was the second half of March. Is that a long time ago, or not?TGOHF said:
Find the last 2 week period when they didn't score 14 or above once..isam said:
Haha 2 weeks!TGOHF said:Ukip just aren't scoring over 14 with YG anymore.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Comments like that, intended to put ukip down, only show how far they've come
0 -
Cook coming out to bat shortly ....
More runs than German goals versus Brazil ?
Mote runs than YG vote share for UKIP
More runs than Jordan's husbands
More runs than UKIP MP's .... titter
or .....
More runs than present number of Conservative MP's
Hides behind sofa ....0 -
At least he didn't call you, "Sunshine". Mr. Smithson can be so Mr. Grumpy at times.isam said:
Ooh bold means told!MikeSmithson said:
This is not margin of error stuff. It is based on 8 polls with total sample size of about 15kCD13 said:
Obviously a quiet day politically.
A graph designed to show a tiny, and possibly MOE, fall. The supposition could be correct because we would expect a rise up to the Euros and a fall afterwards - unless Europe stays in the news, and particularly if the EC go off on one of their more barmy brainwaves.
Junckergate may have slowed the expected slight fall, but without error bars the graph is evidence more of a wish-fulfillment fantasy.
The meaningful graph will be August and September, and then post the party conferences.
My unscientific guess? A gradual fall to the Ukip conference, a slight boost then and a gradual fall to about 11% by next May. But all dependent on Europe behaving in the meantime - a probably forlorn hope for the Europhiles.
This is not a tiny fall. From 14% in June to 12.1% in the first 8 polls of July.0 -
Only a fool would have expected Ukip to maintain their poll ratings after the Euro elections. Looks like they are back to where they were earlier in the year. No surprise there, I wouldn't be reading anything into this until they drop below 10%. It would be nice to see the average over the last 12 months. Without checking it seems like Ukip have had a big rise before flatlining just above 10%. Rather the opposite of the Lib Dems who had a sudden drop to around 10% and have stayed there ever since (dropped marginally since). The Tories also seem to be flatlining over the last year (taking all polls into account). Labour are still falling but everything else seems set.0
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Phew .... Cook beats UKIP MP's number .... just.0
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Totally agree, nice to be in the green on all outcomes though I did lay off England at 12.5 for £3 just now. But indeed keeping the major profit on India here.TGOHF said:
I've lumped on India at 4s - should be 3 down by the close.Pulpstar said:Pulpstar's book at innings change:
England
+£4.99
India
+£62.41
Draw
+£3.77
Expected current value: +£18.21
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What's this College thing you keep going on about?AveryLP said:
The party or College?isam said:
There was a thread on here last week showing that ukip were the only party to improve its score in the last month.OblitusSumMe said:I would prefer a like-with-like comparison - what would the month-to-month variability look like if the other months were based on figures published by the afternoon of the 10th of each month?
However, the expectation has always been that UKIP would fall back a little as the Euro elections were left behind, just as they did after the local elections in 2013. The question is whether they stabilise at a higher level than last year.
At the same time after the local elections last year (so mid-June since the elections were 20 days earlier last spring) the 10-day average in the YouGov polls was 13.1, a smidgen higher than this years average of 12.1.
It takes a lot of faith to believe that UKIP will poll below 10% in the 2015 GE, though.0 -
It's not surprising that UKIP, being kept out of the news should show a drop.
I'm also sure that after the summer doldrums, the kippers will rise again in the polls.0 -
@HurstLlama - I'll get back to you on dates.0
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Haha What the hell is the chap in the green doing, trying to smash the pitch up for the Indian spinners later ?0
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Cook eases past the number of Jordan's husbands.0
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What will happen to your ARSE after New Year?JackW said:@David_Evershed
As requested.
Essentially my ARSE will be published fortnightly, normally on a Tuesday at 9.00am until the New Year.
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Prolapse.GIN1138 said:
What will happen to your ARSE after New Year?JackW said:@David_Evershed
As requested.
Essentially my ARSE will be published fortnightly, normally on a Tuesday at 9.00am until the New Year.
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I did rather well this afternoon backing Indian runs as the wickets tumbled - was horribly inevitable.Pulpstar said:
Totally agree, nice to be in the green on all outcomes though I did lay off England at 12.5 for £3 just now. But indeed keeping the major profit on India here.TGOHF said:
I've lumped on India at 4s - should be 3 down by the close.Pulpstar said:Pulpstar's book at innings change:
England
+£4.99
India
+£62.41
Draw
+£3.77
Expected current value: +£18.210 -
I'm keeping a record of the ARSE, BJESUS, Dyed Woolie and my own projections in my vanillla front page btw so we have a clear reference as to who was right and who was wrong come GE2015.0
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Weekly outpourings ?GIN1138 said:
What will happen to your ARSE after New Year?JackW said:@David_Evershed
As requested.
Essentially my ARSE will be published fortnightly, normally on a Tuesday at 9.00am until the New Year.0 -
2nd reading of the UK's modern slavery bill today.This is further evidence of Ms May's statesmanship,or stateswomanship,with a piece of legislation that will mean she will acquire added value.It's a great shame she cannot back the Human Rights Act as well but her leadership credentials are there for all to see.Come the Tories' Derby Day, next May,the 4-1 currently available could look pretty big.0
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Well that was predictable.0
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Cook goes for 5 .... another few years and the Jordan would be safe !!0
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Weekly.GIN1138 said:
What will happen to your ARSE after New Year?JackW said:@David_Evershed
As requested.
Essentially my ARSE will be published fortnightly, normally on a Tuesday at 9.00am until the New Year.
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I am afraid to say Cook really should have resigned after the Sri Lanka debacle.0
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Then daily outpourings during April 15?JackW said:
Weekly.GIN1138 said:
What will happen to your ARSE after New Year?JackW said:@David_Evershed
As requested.
Essentially my ARSE will be published fortnightly, normally on a Tuesday at 9.00am until the New Year.
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I'll probably move to Mon, Wed and Fri from 4 weeks out.GIN1138 said:
Then daily outpourings during April 15?JackW said:
Weekly.GIN1138 said:
What will happen to your ARSE after New Year?JackW said:@David_Evershed
As requested.
Essentially my ARSE will be published fortnightly, normally on a Tuesday at 9.00am until the New Year.
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You should start your database with the most respectable Dr Fisher's priceless prediction a year or so back. He predicted that the Tories had a 97% of winning an absolute majority.Pulpstar said:I'm keeping a record of the ARSE, BJESUS, Dyed Woolie and my own projections in my vanillla front page btw so we have a clear reference as to who was right and who was wrong come GE2015.
You should ignore Rod Crosby's predictions as and when they are given. No point coming to a prediction close to the final opinion polls. Anyone can do that.
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Another good way of keeping a record of how political betting has changed is to look at the price history of events on oddscheckerPulpstar said:I'm keeping a record of the ARSE, BJESUS, Dyed Woolie and my own projections in my vanillla front page btw so we have a clear reference as to who was right and who was wrong come GE2015.
Money talks, and the impartiality is guaranteed0 -
The captain must justify his place in the first instance unless there are exceptional reasons to the contrary. With Cook there are none.DavidL said:I am afraid to say Cook really should have resigned after the Sri Lanka debacle.
A N Other opener with his recent run would be dropped. Cook needs to go back to county cricket, get some decent scores and re-establish his batting confidence. Presently and sadly he is without doubt dead weight.
I would think he's got the next innings and the Lords test match to turn it around.
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Last weeks council by elections showed a fall in UKIP support , let us see what today's crop bring , There are a couple UKIP would have hoped to win at their peak .0
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#ManWithAPlanJackW said:
I'll probably move to Mon, Wed and Fri from 4 weeks out.GIN1138 said:
Then daily outpourings during April 15?JackW said:
Weekly.GIN1138 said:
What will happen to your ARSE after New Year?JackW said:@David_Evershed
As requested.
Essentially my ARSE will be published fortnightly, normally on a Tuesday at 9.00am until the New Year.
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JackW said:
@David_Evershed
As requested.
Essentially my ARSE will be published fortnightly, normally on a Tuesday at 9.00am until the New Year.
Many thanks to JackW for his ARSE.
The predictions presage a Con/Lib Dem coalition but with reduced numbers of Lib Dems there is only a narrow window of possible outcomes when this could happen. Nevertheless a very credible prediction of seat numbers
Nearly time for your night time drink Jack.0 -
That's optimistic. I think the grinding wheel is already spinning up, and the knives being laid out for sharpening. Which just isn't (but also very much is) cricket.JackW said:
The captain must justify his place in the first instance unless there are exceptional reasons to the contrary. With Cook there are none.DavidL said:I am afraid to say Cook really should have resigned after the Sri Lanka debacle.
A N Other opener with his recent run would be dropped. Cook needs to go back to county cricket, get some decent scores and re-establish his batting confidence. Presently and sadly he is without doubt dead weight.
I would think he's got the next innings and the Lords test match to turn it around.
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#mediaviewer/File:UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
Show me the crossover......Show me the crossover !0 -
AN Other wouldn't have been on course to break all known records for an English batsmen, and wouldn't have a chance to be the greatest test run scorer in history by the time he retiresJackW said:
The captain must justify his place in the first instance unless there are exceptional reasons to the contrary. With Cook there are none.DavidL said:I am afraid to say Cook really should have resigned after the Sri Lanka debacle.
A N Other opener with his recent run would be dropped. Cook needs to go back to county cricket, get some decent scores and re-establish his batting confidence. Presently and sadly he is without doubt dead weight.
I would think he's got the next innings and the Lords test match to turn it around.
Even If he doesn't pass 50 this summer he should still be opening the innings in the winter0 -
"Night time drink ...."David_Evershed said:JackW said:@David_Evershed
As requested.
Essentially my ARSE will be published fortnightly, normally on a Tuesday at 9.00am until the New Year.
Many thanks to JackW for his ARSE.
The predictions presage a Con/Lib Dem coalition but with reduced numbers of Lib Dems there is only a narrow window of possible outcomes when this could happen. Nevertheless a very credible prediction of seat numbers
Nearly time for your night time drink Jack.
I had that lunchtime with a very passable bottle of madeira .... couldn't resist sorry !!
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Michael Heaver (@Michael_Heaver)
10/07/2014 18:04
16 MPs Turn Up to EU Debate in Commons <- Absolutely no point voting for Conservative or Labour MPs order-order.com/2014/07/10/16-…0 -
The trouble there is the whole England management team have tied their colours to Cook and you get the feeling they'll all go down together 5:0 if necessary rather than throw Cook to the wolves.Anorak said:
That's optimistic. I think the grinding wheel is already spinning up, and the knives being laid out for sharpening. Which just isn't (but also very much is) cricket.JackW said:
The captain must justify his place in the first instance unless there are exceptional reasons to the contrary. With Cook there are none.DavidL said:I am afraid to say Cook really should have resigned after the Sri Lanka debacle.
A N Other opener with his recent run would be dropped. Cook needs to go back to county cricket, get some decent scores and re-establish his batting confidence. Presently and sadly he is without doubt dead weight.
I would think he's got the next innings and the Lords test match to turn it around.
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The England Captain isn't there so he might trickle past some record.isam said:
AN Other wouldn't have been on course to break all known records for an English batsmen, and wouldn't have a chance to be the greatest test run scorer in history by the time he retiresJackW said:
The captain must justify his place in the first instance unless there are exceptional reasons to the contrary. With Cook there are none.DavidL said:I am afraid to say Cook really should have resigned after the Sri Lanka debacle.
A N Other opener with his recent run would be dropped. Cook needs to go back to county cricket, get some decent scores and re-establish his batting confidence. Presently and sadly he is without doubt dead weight.
I would think he's got the next innings and the Lords test match to turn it around.
Even If he doesn't pass 50 this summer he should still be opening the innings in the winter
Cook has to justify his position as an opener - Failed
Cook has to justify his position as Captain - Failed
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Class is permanentJackW said:
The England Captain isn't there so he might trickle past some record.isam said:
AN Other wouldn't have been on course to break all known records for an English batsmen, and wouldn't have a chance to be the greatest test run scorer in history by the time he retiresJackW said:
The captain must justify his place in the first instance unless there are exceptional reasons to the contrary. With Cook there are none.DavidL said:I am afraid to say Cook really should have resigned after the Sri Lanka debacle.
A N Other opener with his recent run would be dropped. Cook needs to go back to county cricket, get some decent scores and re-establish his batting confidence. Presently and sadly he is without doubt dead weight.
I would think he's got the next innings and the Lords test match to turn it around.
Even If he doesn't pass 50 this summer he should still be opening the innings in the winter
Cook has to justify his position as an opener - Failed
Cook has to justify his position as Captain - Failed
Yourself and Mike should go to a refresher course in looking past current trends0
