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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ukip shares edging down with the pollster that got the May

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  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm keeping a record of the ARSE, BJESUS, Dyed Woolie and my own projections in my vanillla front page btw so we have a clear reference as to who was right and who was wrong come GE2015.

    Don't forget the MEF published earlier this month...
    C 298, L 295, LD 29, UKIP 0
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    isam said:

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    DavidL said:

    I am afraid to say Cook really should have resigned after the Sri Lanka debacle.

    The captain must justify his place in the first instance unless there are exceptional reasons to the contrary. With Cook there are none.

    A N Other opener with his recent run would be dropped. Cook needs to go back to county cricket, get some decent scores and re-establish his batting confidence. Presently and sadly he is without doubt dead weight.

    I would think he's got the next innings and the Lords test match to turn it around.

    AN Other wouldn't have been on course to break all known records for an English batsmen, and wouldn't have a chance to be the greatest test run scorer in history by the time he retires

    Even If he doesn't pass 50 this summer he should still be opening the innings in the winter
    The England Captain isn't there so he might trickle past some record.

    Cook has to justify his position as an opener - Failed
    Cook has to justify his position as Captain - Failed



    Class is permanent

    Yourself and Mike should go to a refresher course in looking past current trends
    My present refresher course on batting trends indicates that Cook is spending more time in the pavilion that either of the Indian tailenders.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    DavidL said:

    I am afraid to say Cook really should have resigned after the Sri Lanka debacle.

    The captain must justify his place in the first instance unless there are exceptional reasons to the contrary. With Cook there are none.

    A N Other opener with his recent run would be dropped. Cook needs to go back to county cricket, get some decent scores and re-establish his batting confidence. Presently and sadly he is without doubt dead weight.

    I would think he's got the next innings and the Lords test match to turn it around.

    AN Other wouldn't have been on course to break all known records for an English batsmen, and wouldn't have a chance to be the greatest test run scorer in history by the time he retires

    Even If he doesn't pass 50 this summer he should still be opening the innings in the winter
    The England Captain isn't there so he might trickle past some record.

    Cook has to justify his position as an opener - Failed
    Cook has to justify his position as Captain - Failed



    Class is permanent

    Yourself and Mike should go to a refresher course in looking past current trends
    My present refresher course on batting trends indicates that Cook is spending more time in the pavilion that either of the Indian tailenders.

    Look past the obvious knee jerk reactions Jack...

    People wanted him dropped before Australia 10/11... Paddy power quoted Cook series runs over/under 234.5 5/6

    Made up over after the first test
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited July 2014

    AveryLP said:

    There is no need to mess around with timeframes.

    Repeal of the Trade Disputes Act 1906 is the answer.

    No person or organisation should be granted exemption from laws which apply to all others.

    The 1906 Act is already repealed. The principle you advocate, however, is exactly right. The Conspiracy and Protection of Property Act 1875 remains the best way to deal with conspiracies in restraint of trade.
    Thank you for the correction, M'Lud. We are certainly in agreement on principle.

    Not so much though on the matters before the Lords of Appeal in A (FC) and others (FC) (Appellants) v. Secretary of State for the Home Department (Respondent).

    I haven't yet read the full 120 pages of the judgment but did manage to get a third of the way through before succumbing to sleep.

    I am far more persuaded by Lord Bingham of Cornhill who concerns himself with the law than Lord Hoffman who seems to have been more swayed by 17th century literature and the romantic notions of liberty campaigners:

    I would accept that great weight should be given to the judgment of the Home Secretary, his colleagues and Parliament on this question, because they were called on to exercise a pre-eminently political judgment. It involved making a factual prediction of what various people around the world might or might not do, and when (if at all) they might do it, and what the consequences might be if they did. Any prediction about the future behaviour of human beings (as opposed to the phases of the moon or high water at London Bridge) is necessarily problematical. Reasonable and informed minds may differ, and a judgment is not shown to be wrong or unreasonable because that which is thought likely to happen does not happen. It would have been irresponsible not to err, if at all, on the side of safety.

    [to be continued]
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    @Life_in_a_market_town [continued]

    Bingham vs. Hoffman in the Court of Considered Opinion: Part II

    As will become apparent, I do not accept the full breadth of the Attorney General’s argument on what is generally called the deference owed by the courts to the political authorities. It is perhaps preferable to approach this question as one of demarcation of functions or what Liberty in its written case called “relative institutional competence”. The more purely political (in a broad or narrow sense) a question is, the more appropriate it will be for political resolution and the less likely it is to be an appropriate matter for judicial decision. The smaller, therefore, will be the potential role of the court. It is the function of political and not judicial bodies to resolve political questions. Conversely, the greater the legal content of any issue, the greater the potential role of the court, because under our constitution and subject to the sovereign power of Parliament it is the function of the courts and not of political bodies to resolve legal questions. The present question seems to me to be very much at the political end of the spectrum: see Secretary of State for the Home Department v Rehman [2001] UKHL 47, [2003] 1 AC 153, para 62, per Lord Hoffmann. The appellants recognised this by acknowledging that the Home Secretary’s decision on the present question was less readily open to challenge than his decision (as they argued) on some other questions. This reflects the unintrusive approach of the European Court to such a question. I conclude that the appellants have shown no ground strong enough to warrant displacing the Secretary of State’s decision on this important threshold question.

    [My emphasis]

    Most persuasive. Why dissent? Why even read further?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    isam said:

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    DavidL said:

    I am afraid to say Cook really should have resigned after the Sri Lanka debacle.

    The captain must justify his place in the first instance unless there are exceptional reasons to the contrary. With Cook there are none.

    A N Other opener with his recent run would be dropped. Cook needs to go back to county cricket, get some decent scores and re-establish his batting confidence. Presently and sadly he is without doubt dead weight.

    I would think he's got the next innings and the Lords test match to turn it around.

    AN Other wouldn't have been on course to break all known records for an English batsmen, and wouldn't have a chance to be the greatest test run scorer in history by the time he retires

    Even If he doesn't pass 50 this summer he should still be opening the innings in the winter
    The England Captain isn't there so he might trickle past some record.

    Cook has to justify his position as an opener - Failed
    Cook has to justify his position as Captain - Failed



    Class is permanent

    Yourself and Mike should go to a refresher course in looking past current trends
    My present refresher course on batting trends indicates that Cook is spending more time in the pavilion that either of the Indian tailenders.

    Look past the obvious knee jerk reactions Jack...

    People wanted him dropped before Australia 10/11... Paddy power quoted Cook series runs over/under 234.5 5/6

    Made up over after the first test
    I don't think musing over Cook's likely departure after the 5:0 Ashes drubbing and the historic loss to Sri Lanka and other limited overs defeats could be characterized as "knee jerk".

    And if it was "knee jerk" you might be sure that presently Cook would be lbw first ball.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    DavidL said:

    I am afraid to say Cook really should have resigned after the Sri Lanka debacle.

    The captain must justify his place in the first instance unless there are exceptional reasons to the contrary. With Cook there are none.

    A N Other opener with his recent run would be dropped. Cook needs to go back to county cricket, get some decent scores and re-establish his batting confidence. Presently and sadly he is without doubt dead weight.

    I would think he's got the next innings and the Lords test match to turn it around.

    AN Other wouldn't have been on course to break all known records for an English batsmen, and wouldn't have a chance to be the greatest test run scorer in history by the time he retires

    Even If he doesn't pass 50 this summer he should still be opening the innings in the winter
    The England Captain isn't there so he might trickle past some record.

    Cook has to justify his position as an opener - Failed
    Cook has to justify his position as Captain - Failed



    Class is permanent

    Yourself and Mike should go to a refresher course in looking past current trends
    My present refresher course on batting trends indicates that Cook is spending more time in the pavilion that either of the Indian tailenders.

    Look past the obvious knee jerk reactions Jack...

    People wanted him dropped before Australia 10/11... Paddy power quoted Cook series runs over/under 234.5 5/6

    Made up over after the first test
    I don't think musing over Cook's likely departure after the 5:0 Ashes drubbing and the historic loss to Sri Lanka and other limited overs defeats could be characterized as "knee jerk".

    And if it was "knee jerk" you might be sure that presently Cook would be lbw first ball.

    As captain? Possibly... Though no obvious replacement

    As opener? No way, and there is no replacement
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366

    I might be the odd one out here, but I hereby give the Security Services permission to access all my geriatric meanderings on blogs, social media, my e-mails and my phone calls. The chances of them doing so otherwise are negligible.

    Let's assume they have forty people working on it full time. That's for say 40,000,000 people. So every day, each snooper has the records of 1,000,000 people to go through. Even with overtime, that's a lot of snooping.

    Obviously they must target only specific suspects. Even key words could generate an almost infinite amount of work. There's more chance of a random person winning the lottery.

    Who are these precious people who think the whole word awaits their pearls of wisdom? They can't all be celebrities or scousers, surely?

    I may be in an awkward mood today, but isn't this a fuss over nothing?.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Wiki graph updated this afternoon.

    The recent Con downtrend shown at the last update has now been revised - Con now shown as flat at 32 for the last 2 months (having touched 33 around the Budget).

    The steady Lab downtrend ended around May and Lab has gained around 0.5% since then.

    The biggest change over the last couple of months is UKIP - down just over 1%.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited July 2014
    isam said:

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    DavidL said:

    I am afraid to say Cook really should have resigned after the Sri Lanka debacle.

    The captain must justify his place in the first instance unless there are exceptional reasons to the contrary. With Cook there are none.

    A N Other opener with his recent run would be dropped. Cook needs to go back to county cricket, get some decent scores and re-establish his batting confidence. Presently and sadly he is without doubt dead weight.

    I would think he's got the next innings and the Lords test match to turn it around.

    AN Other wouldn't have been on course to break all known records for an English batsmen, and wouldn't have a chance to be the greatest test run scorer in history by the time he retires

    Even If he doesn't pass 50 this summer he should still be opening the innings in the winter
    The England Captain isn't there so he might trickle past some record.

    Cook has to justify his position as an opener - Failed
    Cook has to justify his position as Captain - Failed



    Class is permanent

    Yourself and Mike should go to a refresher course in looking past current trends
    My present refresher course on batting trends indicates that Cook is spending more time in the pavilion that either of the Indian tailenders.

    Look past the obvious knee jerk reactions Jack...

    People wanted him dropped before Australia 10/11... Paddy power quoted Cook series runs over/under 234.5 5/6

    Made up over after the first test
    I don't think musing over Cook's likely departure after the 5:0 Ashes drubbing and the historic loss to Sri Lanka and other limited overs defeats could be characterized as "knee jerk".

    And if it was "knee jerk" you might be sure that presently Cook would be lbw first ball.

    As captain? Possibly... Though no obvious replacement

    As opener? No way, and there is no replacement
    Your determination therefore is that Cook is so awful that no replacement might match him is an interesting sporting thesis.

    But here we go :

    Move 2 and 3 up as openers, bring back Jordan and Bell, Broad, Anderson or Prior as Captain.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    DavidL said:

    I am afraid to say Cook really should have resigned after the Sri Lanka debacle.

    The captain must justify his place in the first instance unless there are exceptional reasons to the contrary. With Cook there are none.

    A N Other opener with his recent run would be dropped. Cook needs to go back to county cricket, get some decent scores and re-establish his batting confidence. Presently and sadly he is without doubt dead weight.

    I would think he's got the next innings and the Lords test match to turn it around.

    AN Other wouldn't have been on course to break all known records for an English batsmen, and wouldn't have a chance to be the greatest test run scorer in history by the time he retires

    Even If he doesn't pass 50 this summer he should still be opening the innings in the winter
    The England Captain isn't there so he might trickle past some record.

    Cook has to justify his position as an opener - Failed
    Cook has to justify his position as Captain - Failed



    Class is permanent

    Yourself and Mike should go to a refresher course in looking past current trends
    My present refresher course on batting trends indicates that Cook is spending more time in the pavilion that either of the Indian tailenders.

    Look past the obvious knee jerk reactions Jack...

    People wanted him dropped before Australia 10/11... Paddy power quoted Cook series runs over/under 234.5 5/6

    Made up over after the first test
    I don't think musing over Cook's likely departure after the 5:0 Ashes drubbing and the historic loss to Sri Lanka and other limited overs defeats could be characterized as "knee jerk".

    And if it was "knee jerk" you might be sure that presently Cook would be lbw first ball.

    As captain? Possibly... Though no obvious replacement

    As opener? No way, and there is no replacement
    Your determination therefore is that Cook is so awful that no replacement might match him is an interesting sporting thesis.

    But here we go :

    Move 2 and 3 up as openers, bring back Jordan and Bell, Broad, Anderson or Prior as Captain.

    Drop the guy who was the youngest in the history of the game to 7,000 test runs before he reaches his 30th birthday you say?

    Yes that sounds well thought out
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited July 2014
    MikeL said:

    Wiki graph updated this afternoon.

    The recent Con downtrend shown at the last update has now been revised - Con now shown as flat at 32 for the last 2 months (having touched 33 around the Budget).

    The steady Lab downtrend ended around May and Lab has gained around 0.5% since then.

    The biggest change over the last couple of months is UKIP - down just over 1%.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Good stuff.

    One interesting thing on looking at the graph: contrary to what one might have expected, the May 2014 UKIP peak, at the time of the Euros+Locals, was no higher than the May 2013 peak when it was only the Locals.

    Edit: One word of warning, though - the trend line is not a very meaningful average of the polls because it is dominated by the sheer volume of YouGov polls. That pushes the UKIP line in particular down by quite a lot, as you can see by the purple dots way above the line from other pollsters.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Why Compouter2, from that graph it looks to have happened around October/November 2010.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    MikeL said:

    Wiki graph updated this afternoon.

    The recent Con downtrend shown at the last update has now been revised - Con now shown as flat at 32 for the last 2 months (having touched 33 around the Budget).

    The steady Lab downtrend ended around May and Lab has gained around 0.5% since then.

    The biggest change over the last couple of months is UKIP - down just over 1%.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Good stuff.

    One interesting thing on looking at the graph: contrary to what one might have expected, the May 2014 UKIP peak, at the time of the Euros+Locals, was no higher than the May 2013 peak when it was only the Locals.

    Edit: One word of warning, though - the trend line is not a very meaningful average of the polls because it is dominated by the sheer volume of YouGov polls. That pushes the UKIP line in particular down by quite a lot, as you can see by the purple dots way above the line from other pollsters.
    The yougovs being the concentration of purple dots almost forming lines underneath? The same can be seen just above the conservative and labour lines

    They could be right, but I get the feeling the daily poll reinforces itself in people's mind who want to believe it, but it's just one pollster
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Arsenal FC (@Arsenal)
    10/07/2014 19:47
    It's official! Alexis Sanchez has agreed to join @Arsenal! po.st/xdrSkJ pic.twitter.com/gbDWNgdo2y
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    murali_s said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm keeping a record of the ARSE, BJESUS, Dyed Woolie and my own projections in my vanillla front page btw so we have a clear reference as to who was right and who was wrong come GE2015.

    Don't forget the MEF published earlier this month...
    C 298, L 295, LD 29, UKIP 0
    MEF ?

    That yours or Fisher ?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Good evening, everyone.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    Pulpstar said:

    murali_s said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm keeping a record of the ARSE, BJESUS, Dyed Woolie and my own projections in my vanillla front page btw so we have a clear reference as to who was right and who was wrong come GE2015.

    Don't forget the MEF published earlier this month...
    C 298, L 295, LD 29, UKIP 0
    MEF ?

    That yours or Fisher ?
    Mine. Murali Election Forecast
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited July 2014
    It would be wise to store some of the arrogant and overconfident comments made by Compoutimer and the like for GE time.

    Of course if ED loses as I think he will, the likes of Compouter will resurrect as someone else..
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067

    Good evening, everyone.

    Hello...
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    MikeL said:

    Wiki graph updated this afternoon.

    The recent Con downtrend shown at the last update has now been revised - Con now shown as flat at 32 for the last 2 months (having touched 33 around the Budget).

    The steady Lab downtrend ended around May and Lab has gained around 0.5% since then.

    The biggest change over the last couple of months is UKIP - down just over 1%.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Good stuff.

    One interesting thing on looking at the graph: contrary to what one might have expected, the May 2014 UKIP peak, at the time of the Euros+Locals, was no higher than the May 2013 peak when it was only the Locals.

    Edit: One word of warning, though - the trend line is not a very meaningful average of the polls because it is dominated by the sheer volume of YouGov polls. That pushes the UKIP line in particular down by quite a lot, as you can see by the purple dots way above the line from other pollsters.
    Electoral Calculus also produce a graph. The trend line looks different to the wikipedia one (the UKIP peaks are higher), so they may be averaging each pollster, before averaging all pollsters.

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/polls.html
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @SquareRoot

    'Of course if ED loses as I think he will, the likes of Compouter will resurrect as someone else..'

    What again?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,875
    edited July 2014
    As Isam posted below, appalling article in the Socialist Worker this week stating the recent mauling of an Eton schoolboy on an Arctic expedition was “another reason to save the polar bears”. Also ridiculous as the the Socialist Workers Party’s own national secretary, Charlie Kimber, is an Old Etonian
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/press/socialist-worker-called-to-apologise-over-vile-article-saying-eton-schoolboy-horatio-chapples-death-is-reason-to-save-the-polar-bears-9597931.html
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Good evening, everyone.

    I read the beginning of Agent ZigZag this morning.

    http://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/agent-zigzag-9781408811498/

    One of the Abwehr officers apparently thought morris dancing was the root from which all dance styles evolved. (He was a bit eccentric)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm keeping a record of the ARSE, BJESUS, Dyed Woolie and my own projections in my vanillla front page btw so we have a clear reference as to who was right and who was wrong come GE2015.

    Feel free to make us some lovely graphs showing how these projections change over time. :)

    I could be persuaded to volunteer to maintain a google doc with all these projections and a nice graph at the bottom...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    MikeL said:

    Wiki graph updated this afternoon.

    The recent Con downtrend shown at the last update has now been revised - Con now shown as flat at 32 for the last 2 months (having touched 33 around the Budget).

    The steady Lab downtrend ended around May and Lab has gained around 0.5% since then.

    The biggest change over the last couple of months is UKIP - down just over 1%.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    LDs amazing consistency at 10% has finally broken, now at a new level of 8%!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Dave, I think my parents liked Agent ZigZag, though I've not read it myself.

    I think it's certainly true that morris dancing is the font of all dancing. The primal passion and effortless grace have never been surpassed by the lesser imitations that followed in its shadow.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited July 2014
    Toms said:

    Why Compouter2, from that graph it looks to have happened around October/November 2010.
    As a parenthetical comment, I think I have tried to make it clear to my legions of followers (hello Ma!) that polls aren't elections.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Somewhere over the rainbow... there's a new thread.
  • Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516
    CD13 said:


    I might be the odd one out here, but I hereby give the Security Services permission to access all my geriatric meanderings on blogs, social media, my e-mails and my phone calls. The chances of them doing so otherwise are negligible.

    Let's assume they have forty people working on it full time. That's for say 40,000,000 people. So every day, each snooper has the records of 1,000,000 people to go through. Even with overtime, that's a lot of snooping.

    Obviously they must target only specific suspects. Even key words could generate an almost infinite amount of work. There's more chance of a random person winning the lottery.

    Who are these precious people who think the whole word awaits their pearls of wisdom? They can't all be celebrities or scousers, surely?

    I may be in an awkward mood today, but isn't this a fuss over nothing?.

    The problem as far as I can see it, is that 40 people (I suspect over 400,000 (CIA, NSA, GCHQ and numerous 3 and 4 letter acronyms) have access to increasingly powerful computers.

    What they would do is track lines of possible investigation and then be able to crack open all potential correspondence of people of possible interest who may or may not have shown a interest, however vague, and become targets .

    Puhleeze, do not give me the garbage of if you are innocent you have nothing to fear.

    These people do not care if they make mistakes, they are only interested in so called live targets

    The only problem as far as I have seen, is that it is all a waste of time and money. Any potential terrorist is not going to use lines of communication which are being watched. And, as far as I have been able to find out, they have never caught a live terrorist suspect through these means

    The real reason to maintain such a system is to control the most dangerous people in a democracy, the people themselves.



This discussion has been closed.