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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ukip shares edging down with the pollster that got the May Euro elections most right

YouGov, of course, was the most accurate pollster on the May 22nd Euro elections.

Read the full story here

David_Evershed

England opener does well.

Pulpstar

David_Evershed said:

How likely is it that India's last wicket stand will be higher than England's first wicket stand?

Are India's bowlers better at batting than the England openers?

With Captain "Edge to slip" Cook, doubt a bookie will offer you a market on that..

FalseFlag

Actually UKIP is the only party seeing its polling numbers rise. Labour is flatflining as are the Conservatives with Lib Dems ever falling. I could link to today's article on this but shan't. Statistical noise doesn't warrant much analysis.

Of course trade unions were a key force in the immigration restriction movement historically, the fact they no longer are and take the diametrically opposite position is proof of their capture by the militant tendency.

rcs1000

FalseFlag said:

Actually UKIP is the only party seeing its polling numbers rise. Labour is flatflining as are the Conservatives with Lib Dems ever falling. I could link to today's article on this but shan't. Statistical noise doesn't warrant much analysis.

Of course trade unions were a key force in the immigration restriction movement historically, the fact they no longer are and take the diametrically opposite position is proof of their capture by the militant tendency.

You're right. The chart is a lie.

JackW

Pulpstar said:

David_Evershed said:

How likely is it that India's last wicket stand will be higher than England's first wicket stand?

Are India's bowlers better at batting than the England openers?

With Captain "Edge to slip" Cook, doubt a bookie will offer you a market on that..

Talking of "Cook" what happened to his Islands general election held today. Are the Dimbleby mob out there on a South Seas jolly ?

Pulpstar

On topic looks like noise to me - the data laws (Coalition ire) and strikes (Inexorably linked to Miliband/Labour) will help keep UKIP up for the moment.

isam

Hang on, when I mentioned ICMs 20% for Ukip 35% for Labour, @tse was on to me quick as a flash to say you couldn't compare euro polls with those for the GE

Speedy

Too early, too few yougov polls.
On other news today, after the portuguese banking crisis investors today are flocking to the amazing safety of cynk stocks (up another 10%).
Tells wonders about the sanity of the common folk.

Neil

isam said:

Hang on, when I mentioned ICMs 20% for Ukip 35% for Labour, @tse was on to me quick as a flash to say you couldn't compare euro polls with those for the GE

Those are all GE polls, arent they?

JackW

Cook Islands General Election (Provisional Results)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Islands_general_election,_2014

Tamarua Constituency - 23 votes each of two candidates !!

David_Evershed

JackW

A day or two ago you were promising an (ARSE) poll prediction.

I seem to have missed it. Could you repost here please.

isam

Neil said:

isam said:

Hang on, when I mentioned ICMs 20% for Ukip 35% for Labour, @tse was on to me quick as a flash to say you couldn't compare euro polls with those for the GE

Those are all GE polls, arent they?

I said If ICM were so fantastic, how do we explain their 20% for ukip and 35% for Labour in the euros?

I think it was TSE, apologies if I misremember, saying straight away that I was wrong to use a pollsters euro polling record as a guide to their GE accuracy

Yet the thread header relies on just that

JackW

David_Evershed said:

JackW

A day or two ago you were promising an (ARSE) poll prediction.

I seem to have missed it. Could you repost here please.

Ok .... after the fall of the last Indian wicket .... we may be some time.

Titter ....

GIN1138

It's over for UKIP - Time to disband and support Con to secure 2017 referendum.

David_Evershed

Lib Dem Voice (quoting George Eaton in the New Statesman) is tipping Jo Swinson to replace Ed Davey as Sec of State at Energy in a reshuffle and Jenny Willott to take her job at Dept of Business, Innovation and Skills.

Not clear what would happen to Ed Davey - maybe he could replace Vince Cable?

Jo Swinson - future Lib Dem leader?

Neil

GIN1138 said:

It's over for UKIP - Time to disband and support Con to secure 2017 referendum.

It would be much more convenient if they could hang around, poll about 9%, cost the Tories loads of seats and make me a nice profit.

JackW

BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Change from 24th June Projection) :

Con 307 (-5) .. Lab 282 (+8) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 8 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 1 (-1) .. Respect 0 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

Conservatives 19 seats short of a majority
Labour 44 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................

"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :

Bury North - TCTC
Pudsey - TCTC
Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain
Cambridge - Likely LibDem Hold
Ipswich - TCTC
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold
Enfield - TCTC
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold (From Likely Con Hold)
Vale of Glamorgan - Likely Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - Likely Lab Hold (From TCTC)

Changes From 24th June - Great Yarmouth moves from Likely Con Hold to Con Hold and Ochil and South Perthshire moves from TCTC to Likely Lab Hold.

TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500 votes
.......................................................................................

WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors

anotherDave

The Polling Observatory report for June said of UKIP:
"There is little evidence yet of a fall in Ukip support now the European Parliament elections have passed, confounding the expectations of pundits who believed the European election victory was the "peak Ukip moment". Our estimates have Farage's party at 14.8 per cent, down just 0.1 per cent on last month. "

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/pollingobservatory/100279233/ignore-the-juncker-bounce-and-the-labour-surge-polls-may-bounce-but-public-opinion-usually-doesnt/

Neil

David_Evershed said:

Jo Swinson - future Lib Dem leader?

She'll be (temporarily) unemployed in less than a year.

JackW

@David_Evershed

As requested.

Essentially my ARSE will be published fortnightly, normally on a Tuesday at 9.00am until the New Year.

OblitusSumMe

I would prefer a like-with-like comparison - what would the month-to-month variability look like if the other months were based on figures published by the afternoon of the 10th of each month?

However, the expectation has always been that UKIP would fall back a little as the Euro elections were left behind, just as they did after the local elections in 2013. The question is whether they stabilise at a higher level than last year.

At the same time after the local elections last year (so mid-June since the elections were 20 days earlier last spring) the 10-day average in the YouGov polls was 13.1, a smidgen higher than this years average of 12.1.

It takes a lot of faith to believe that UKIP will poll below 10% in the 2015 GE, though.

AveryLP

FPT

@Neil‌

Currently legislation requires action to be called within 4 weeks of the close of the ballot.

There is no need to mess around with timeframes.

Repeal of the Trade Disputes Act 1906 is the answer.

No person or organisation should be granted exemption from laws which apply to all others.

Neil

OblitusSumMe said:

It takes a lot of faith to believe that UKIP will poll below 10% in the 2015 GE, though.

You just have to believe.

TGOHF

Uh oh - have been pointing this out to the Kippers and they don't like it "but we won a national election"

Peak Farage has passed. Hodges may be clothed yet.

isam

This is in incredible bad taste from the Socialist Worker.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/press/socialist-worker-called-to-apologise-over-vile-article-saying-eton-schoolboy-horatio-chapples-death-is-reason-to-save-the-polar-bears-9597931.html

isam

OblitusSumMe said:

I would prefer a like-with-like comparison - what would the month-to-month variability look like if the other months were based on figures published by the afternoon of the 10th of each month?

However, the expectation has always been that UKIP would fall back a little as the Euro elections were left behind, just as they did after the local elections in 2013. The question is whether they stabilise at a higher level than last year.

At the same time after the local elections last year (so mid-June since the elections were 20 days earlier last spring) the 10-day average in the YouGov polls was 13.1, a smidgen higher than this years average of 12.1.

It takes a lot of faith to believe that UKIP will poll below 10% in the 2015 GE, though.

There was a thread on here last week showing that ukip were the only party to improve its score in the last month

People want them to fail so much don't they? Absolutely desperate

TGOHF

Ukip just aren't scoring over 14 with YG anymore.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

AveryLP

isam said:

OblitusSumMe said:

I would prefer a like-with-like comparison - what would the month-to-month variability look like if the other months were based on figures published by the afternoon of the 10th of each month?

However, the expectation has always been that UKIP would fall back a little as the Euro elections were left behind, just as they did after the local elections in 2013. The question is whether they stabilise at a higher level than last year.

At the same time after the local elections last year (so mid-June since the elections were 20 days earlier last spring) the 10-day average in the YouGov polls was 13.1, a smidgen higher than this years average of 12.1.

It takes a lot of faith to believe that UKIP will poll below 10% in the 2015 GE, though.

There was a thread on here last week showing that ukip were the only party to improve its score in the last month.

The party or College?

anotherDave

Empty chamber for the EU Justice and Home Affairs debate in the HoC.

twitter.com/UKIP/status/487245214529376256/photo/1

Richard_Nabavi

Hmm, not sure we've got sufficient data to indicate that UKIP support is edging down, for now at least. On YouGov's figures it might have dropped a smidgen recently, but I can't see any consistent pattern of UKIP losing share with other pollsters.

I think we need to put this one in the 'need more data' box.

anotherDave

TGOHF said:

Uh oh - have been pointing this out to the Kippers and they don't like it "but we won a national election"

Yes. It's an important point. Shocking as it may be, elections also measure public support.

Pulpstar

Oh what the Lib Dems would do for a Yougov chart like that over H1 !!

FalseFlag

anotherDave said:

The Polling Observatory report for June said of UKIP:
"There is little evidence yet of a fall in Ukip support now the European Parliament elections have passed, confounding the expectations of pundits who believed the European election victory was the "peak Ukip moment". Our estimates have Farage's party at 14.8 per cent, down just 0.1 per cent on last month. "

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/pollingobservatory/100279233/ignore-the-juncker-bounce-and-the-labour-surge-polls-may-bounce-but-public-opinion-usually-doesnt/

Bingo, more amusing is Labour arresting their relentless 2014 slide for a whole month and the Ed surge hysteria it provoked.

isam

TGOHF said:

Ukip just aren't scoring over 14 with YG anymore.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

Haha 2 weeks!

Comments like that, intended to put ukip down, only show how far they've come

MikeSmithson

anotherDave said:

The Polling Observatory report for June said of UKIP:
"There is little evidence yet of a fall in Ukip support now the European Parliament elections have passed, confounding the expectations of pundits who believed the European election victory was the "peak Ukip moment". Our estimates have Farage's party at 14.8 per cent, down just 0.1 per cent on last month. "

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/pollingobservatory/100279233/ignore-the-juncker-bounce-and-the-labour-surge-polls-may-bounce-but-public-opinion-usually-doesnt/

That was June. This is July and we've already had 8 YouGov polls

AveryLP

Richard_Nabavi said:

Hmm, not sure we've got sufficient data to indicate that UKIP support is edging down, for now at least. On YouGov's figures it might have dropped a smidgen recently, but I can't see any consistent pattern of UKIP losing share with other pollsters.

I think we need to put this one in the 'need more data' box.

There is a significance to the UKIP VI share which we may be missing.

OfCom carried out a wide consultation last year before ruling that UK broadcasters (excl. the BBC) should treat UKIP as a major party for the EP elections in all areas except Scotland.

A careful reading of the consultation and ruling documents show that a de facto threshold of 10% consistently achieved in opinion polls was one of the key benchmarks for deciding on major party status.

OfCom have announced no plans to carry out a futher consultation or make a new ruling for the General Election, but have said that, if they do make a ruling, it will be in October 2014.

My hunch is that if UKIP are still above 10% in the Opinion Polls come October there will be a stronger case for the party to be granted major status. If below, then OfCom not granting major status would be consistent with the results of the consultation and rulings made for the EP elections.

This is one to watch as it looks like being close with the outcome being significant.

isam

anotherDave said:

TGOHF said:

Uh oh - have been pointing this out to the Kippers and they don't like it "but we won a national election"

Yes. It's an important point. Shocking as it may be, elections also measure public support.

Real votes don't matter on here

Skewed samples of political nerds or extrapolations count for more

And when a party improves by 600% in a non friendly area with an apparently voter turn off of a candidate... it's a failure

TGOHF

isam said:

TGOHF said:

Ukip just aren't scoring over 14 with YG anymore.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

Haha 2 weeks!

Comments like that, intended to put ukip down, only show how far they've come

Find the last 2 week period when they didn't score 14 or above once..

Socrates

AveryLP said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Hmm, not sure we've got sufficient data to indicate that UKIP support is edging down, for now at least. On YouGov's figures it might have dropped a smidgen recently, but I can't see any consistent pattern of UKIP losing share with other pollsters.

I think we need to put this one in the 'need more data' box.

There is a significance to the UKIP VI share which we may be missing.

OfCom carried out a wide consultation last year before ruling that UK broadcasters (excl. the BBC) should treat UKIP as a major party for the EP elections in all areas except Scotland.

A careful reading of the consultation and ruling documents show that a de facto threshold of 10% consistently achieved in opinion polls was one of the key benchmarks for deciding on major party status.

OfCom have announced no plans to carry out a futher consultation or make a new ruling for the General Election, but have said that, if they do make a ruling, it will be in October 2014.

My hunch is that if UKIP are still above 10% in the Opinion Polls come October there will be a strong case for the party to be granted major status. If below, then OfCom not granting major status would be consistent with the results of the consultation and rulings made for the EP elections.

This is one to watch as it looks like being close with the outcome being significant.

Ten percent in the polls on a consistent basis would seem to be very reasonable logic from the electoral commission.

FalseFlag

Sure Ed is all set to sweep into Downing Street, never mind the very strong forward looking economic indicators, the well established historical relationship between unemployment, inflation, interest rates and wages on voting intentions nor indeed Ed's own dire personal ratings. Of course the fantastically unpopular Lib Dems with their wildly out of touch policies on Europe and immigration means they are well due a come back.

Sure.

isam

TGOHF said:

isam said:

TGOHF said:

Ukip just aren't scoring over 14 with YG anymore.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

Haha 2 weeks!

Comments like that, intended to put ukip down, only show how far they've come

Find the last 2 week period when they didn't score 14 or above once..

Oh pity poor Harry! So desperate for those pesky kippers to fail

TheScreamingEagles

isam said:

Neil said:

isam said:

Hang on, when I mentioned ICMs 20% for Ukip 35% for Labour, @tse was on to me quick as a flash to say you couldn't compare euro polls with those for the GE

Those are all GE polls, arent they?

I said If ICM were so fantastic, how do we explain their 20% for ukip and 35% for Labour in the euros?

I think it was TSE, apologies if I misremember, saying straight away that I was wrong to use a pollsters euro polling record as a guide to their GE accuracy

Yet the thread header relies on just that

It was I.

I'll let you in to a little secret.

Mike and myself don't always agree, we do have differing opinions.

My opinions are just that, opinions, not gospel, you and everyone else are free to disagree.

Although this next opinion is a fact.

The England cricket team are a great shower of Ed Miliband

Anorak

What with this and the sniffing, you've got to wonder...

http://order-order.com/2014/07/10/ed-miliband-ive-got-my-eyes-on-you

TGOHF

isam said:

TGOHF said:

isam said:

TGOHF said:

Ukip just aren't scoring over 14 with YG anymore.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

Haha 2 weeks!

Comments like that, intended to put ukip down, only show how far they've come

Find the last 2 week period when they didn't score 14 or above once..

Oh pity poor Harry! So desperate for those pesky kippers to fail

Stick to the facts old bean. YG just can't find as many kippers as they could - they are like North Sea cod.

HurstLlama

"The England cricket team are a great shower of Ed Miliband "

Please can we have the like button back? Pretty, please? If not the like button maybe the, "Thanks, I just spluttered my tea over the keyboard" button.

AveryLP

Anorak said:

What with this and the sniffing, you've got to wonder...

http://order-order.com/2014/07/10/ed-miliband-ive-got-my-eyes-on-you

Ed's just plain weird, isn't he?

OblitusSumMe

TGOHF said:

isam said:

TGOHF said:

Ukip just aren't scoring over 14 with YG anymore.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

Haha 2 weeks!

Comments like that, intended to put ukip down, only show how far they've come

Find the last 2 week period when they didn't score 14 or above once..

Looks like it was the second half of March. Is that a long time ago, or not?

Socrates

Obamacare proving to be a real success.

Almost ten million fewer Americans are uninsured: http://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/issue-briefs/2014/jul/Health-Coverage-Access-ACA

Medicare costs have fallen by $1,000 per participant:
http://www.vox.com/2014/7/9/5883843/the-amazing-mysterious-decline-in-medicares-price-tag

isam

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

Neil said:

isam said:

Hang on, when I mentioned ICMs 20% for Ukip 35% for Labour, @tse was on to me quick as a flash to say you couldn't compare euro polls with those for the GE

Those are all GE polls, arent they?

I said If ICM were so fantastic, how do we explain their 20% for ukip and 35% for Labour in the euros?

I think it was TSE, apologies if I misremember, saying straight away that I was wrong to use a pollsters euro polling record as a guide to their GE accuracy

Yet the thread header relies on just that

It was I.

I'll let you in to a little secret.

Mike and myself don't always agree, we do have differing opinions.

My opinions are just that, opinions, not gospel, you and everyone else are free to disagree.

Although this next opinion is a fact.

The England cricket team are a great shower of Ed Miliband

Fair enough, just didn't see you correcting Mike as you did me

Pulpstar

India 3.8/3.85

Considering they have

451 runs on the fricking board
England are batting last on this pitch
Rain forecast is sporadic at best and doubt it will cost many overs
India have decent spinners

That's a nice price right now.

CD13

Obviously a quiet day politically.

A graph designed to show a tiny, and possibly MOE, fall. The supposition could be correct because we would expect a rise up to the Euros and a fall afterwards - unless Europe stays in the news, and particularly if the EC go off on one of their more barmy brainwaves.

Junckergate may have slowed the expected slight fall, but without error bars the graph is evidence more of a wish-fulfillment fantasy.

The meaningful graph will be August and September, and then post the party conferences.

My unscientific guess? A gradual fall to the Ukip conference, a slight boost then and a gradual fall to about 11% by next May. But all dependent on Europe behaving in the meantime - a probably forlorn hope for the Europhiles.

bigjohnowls

Pulpstar said:

India 3.8/3.85

Considering

England are batting last on this pitch
Rain forecast is sporadic at best and doubt it will cost many overs
India have decent spinners (I think)

That's a nice price right now.

They will probably be all oou for 460 as i had a bet earlier today at evens on over 460

Gave the bet up 3 hours ago but getting close now

MikeSmithson

CD13 said:

Obviously a quiet day politically.

A graph designed to show a tiny, and possibly MOE, fall. The supposition could be correct because we would expect a rise up to the Euros and a fall afterwards - unless Europe stays in the news, and particularly if the EC go off on one of their more barmy brainwaves.

Junckergate may have slowed the expected slight fall, but without error bars the graph is evidence more of a wish-fulfillment fantasy.

The meaningful graph will be August and September, and then post the party conferences.

My unscientific guess? A gradual fall to the Ukip conference, a slight boost then and a gradual fall to about 11% by next May. But all dependent on Europe behaving in the meantime - a probably forlorn hope for the Europhiles.

This is not margin of error stuff. It is based on 8 polls with total sample size of about 15k

This is not a tiny fall. From 14% in June to 12.1% in the first 8 polls of July.

isam

MikeSmithson said:

CD13 said:

Obviously a quiet day politically.

A graph designed to show a tiny, and possibly MOE, fall. The supposition could be correct because we would expect a rise up to the Euros and a fall afterwards - unless Europe stays in the news, and particularly if the EC go off on one of their more barmy brainwaves.

Junckergate may have slowed the expected slight fall, but without error bars the graph is evidence more of a wish-fulfillment fantasy.

The meaningful graph will be August and September, and then post the party conferences.

My unscientific guess? A gradual fall to the Ukip conference, a slight boost then and a gradual fall to about 11% by next May. But all dependent on Europe behaving in the meantime - a probably forlorn hope for the Europhiles.

This is not margin of error stuff. It is based on 8 polls with total sample size of about 15k

This is not a tiny fall. From 14% in June to 12.1% in the first 8 polls of July.

Ooh bold means told!

Pulpstar

MikeSmithson said:

CD13 said:

Obviously a quiet day politically.

A graph designed to show a tiny, and possibly MOE, fall. The supposition could be correct because we would expect a rise up to the Euros and a fall afterwards - unless Europe stays in the news, and particularly if the EC go off on one of their more barmy brainwaves.

Junckergate may have slowed the expected slight fall, but without error bars the graph is evidence more of a wish-fulfillment fantasy.

The meaningful graph will be August and September, and then post the party conferences.

My unscientific guess? A gradual fall to the Ukip conference, a slight boost then and a gradual fall to about 11% by next May. But all dependent on Europe behaving in the meantime - a probably forlorn hope for the Europhiles.

This is not margin of error stuff. It is based on 8 polls with total sample size of about 15k

This is not a tiny fall. From 14% in June to 12.1% in the first 8 polls of July.

Is the graph using the unrounded Yougov weighted figures though ?

isam

What bets should we be having on the back of this info Mike?

Ukip under 10%?
LDs to bt Ukip?
Ukip not to win a seat?

Anŷ value?

CD13

Mr Smithson,

You may well be right but for us geeks, what is the standard error and the 'p' value?

And as it happens, I would expect it to be falling slightly.

Life_ina_market_town

AveryLP said:

There is no need to mess around with timeframes.

Repeal of the Trade Disputes Act 1906 is the answer.

No person or organisation should be granted exemption from laws which apply to all others.

The 1906 Act is already repealed. The principle you advocate, however, is exactly right. The Conspiracy and Protection of Property Act 1875 remains the best way to deal with conspiracies in restraint of trade.

bigjohnowls

Bugger 4 runs short. Mind you 3 wkts straight after lunch made my evens bet a 100/1 shot

Pulpstar

bigjohnowls said:

Pulpstar said:

India 3.8/3.85

Considering

England are batting last on this pitch
Rain forecast is sporadic at best and doubt it will cost many overs
India have decent spinners (I think)

That's a nice price right now.

They will probably be all oou for 460 as i had a bet earlier today at evens on over 460

Gave the bet up 3 hours ago but getting close now

Unlucky !

Pulpstar

Pulpstar's book at innings change:

England
+£4.99

India
+£62.41

Draw
+£3.77

Expected current value: +£18.21

TGOHF

OblitusSumMe said:

TGOHF said:

isam said:

TGOHF said:

Ukip just aren't scoring over 14 with YG anymore.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

Haha 2 weeks!

Comments like that, intended to put ukip down, only show how far they've come

Find the last 2 week period when they didn't score 14 or above once..

Looks like it was the second half of March. Is that a long time ago, or not?

I'd say that is a long time but 3 times that until the election.

JackW

Cook coming out to bat shortly ....

More runs than German goals versus Brazil ?
Mote runs than YG vote share for UKIP
More runs than Jordan's husbands
More runs than UKIP MP's .... titter

or .....

More runs than present number of Conservative MP's

Hides behind sofa ....

HurstLlama

isam said:

MikeSmithson said:

CD13 said:

Obviously a quiet day politically.

A graph designed to show a tiny, and possibly MOE, fall. The supposition could be correct because we would expect a rise up to the Euros and a fall afterwards - unless Europe stays in the news, and particularly if the EC go off on one of their more barmy brainwaves.

Junckergate may have slowed the expected slight fall, but without error bars the graph is evidence more of a wish-fulfillment fantasy.

The meaningful graph will be August and September, and then post the party conferences.

My unscientific guess? A gradual fall to the Ukip conference, a slight boost then and a gradual fall to about 11% by next May. But all dependent on Europe behaving in the meantime - a probably forlorn hope for the Europhiles.

This is not margin of error stuff. It is based on 8 polls with total sample size of about 15k

This is not a tiny fall. From 14% in June to 12.1% in the first 8 polls of July.

Ooh bold means told!

At least he didn't call you, "Sunshine". Mr. Smithson can be so Mr. Grumpy at times.

TGOHF

Pulpstar said:

Pulpstar's book at innings change:

England
+£4.99

India
+£62.41

Draw
+£3.77

Expected current value: +£18.21

I've lumped on India at 4s - should be 3 down by the close.

FrankBooth

Only a fool would have expected Ukip to maintain their poll ratings after the Euro elections. Looks like they are back to where they were earlier in the year. No surprise there, I wouldn't be reading anything into this until they drop below 10%. It would be nice to see the average over the last 12 months. Without checking it seems like Ukip have had a big rise before flatlining just above 10%. Rather the opposite of the Lib Dems who had a sudden drop to around 10% and have stayed there ever since (dropped marginally since). The Tories also seem to be flatlining over the last year (taking all polls into account). Labour are still falling but everything else seems set.

JackW

Phew .... Cook beats UKIP MP's number .... just.

Pulpstar

TGOHF said:

Pulpstar said:

Pulpstar's book at innings change:

England
+£4.99

India
+£62.41

Draw
+£3.77

Expected current value: +£18.21

I've lumped on India at 4s - should be 3 down by the close.

Totally agree, nice to be in the green on all outcomes though I did lay off England at 12.5 for £3 just now. But indeed keeping the major profit on India here.

BobaFett

AveryLP said:

isam said:

OblitusSumMe said:

I would prefer a like-with-like comparison - what would the month-to-month variability look like if the other months were based on figures published by the afternoon of the 10th of each month?

However, the expectation has always been that UKIP would fall back a little as the Euro elections were left behind, just as they did after the local elections in 2013. The question is whether they stabilise at a higher level than last year.

At the same time after the local elections last year (so mid-June since the elections were 20 days earlier last spring) the 10-day average in the YouGov polls was 13.1, a smidgen higher than this years average of 12.1.

It takes a lot of faith to believe that UKIP will poll below 10% in the 2015 GE, though.

There was a thread on here last week showing that ukip were the only party to improve its score in the last month.

The party or College?

What's this College thing you keep going on about?

MikeK

It's not surprising that UKIP, being kept out of the news should show a drop.
I'm also sure that after the summer doldrums, the kippers will rise again in the polls.

Richard_Nabavi

@HurstLlama - I'll get back to you on dates.

Pulpstar

Haha What the hell is the chap in the green doing, trying to smash the pitch up for the Indian spinners later ?

JackW

Cook eases past the number of Jordan's husbands.

GIN1138

JackW said:

@David_Evershed

As requested.

Essentially my ARSE will be published fortnightly, normally on a Tuesday at 9.00am until the New Year.

What will happen to your ARSE after New Year?

Neil

GIN1138 said:

JackW said:

@David_Evershed

As requested.

Essentially my ARSE will be published fortnightly, normally on a Tuesday at 9.00am until the New Year.

What will happen to your ARSE after New Year?

Prolapse.

TGOHF

Pulpstar said:

TGOHF said:

Pulpstar said:

Pulpstar's book at innings change:

England
+£4.99

India
+£62.41

Draw
+£3.77

Expected current value: +£18.21

I've lumped on India at 4s - should be 3 down by the close.

Totally agree, nice to be in the green on all outcomes though I did lay off England at 12.5 for £3 just now. But indeed keeping the major profit on India here.

I did rather well this afternoon backing Indian runs as the wickets tumbled - was horribly inevitable.

Pulpstar

I'm keeping a record of the ARSE, BJESUS, Dyed Woolie and my own projections in my vanillla front page btw so we have a clear reference as to who was right and who was wrong come GE2015.

TGOHF

GIN1138 said:

JackW said:

@David_Evershed

As requested.

Essentially my ARSE will be published fortnightly, normally on a Tuesday at 9.00am until the New Year.

What will happen to your ARSE after New Year?

Weekly outpourings ?

volcanopete

2nd reading of the UK's modern slavery bill today.This is further evidence of Ms May's statesmanship,or stateswomanship,with a piece of legislation that will mean she will acquire added value.It's a great shame she cannot back the Human Rights Act as well but her leadership credentials are there for all to see.Come the Tories' Derby Day, next May,the 4-1 currently available could look pretty big.

Pulpstar

Well that was predictable.

JackW

Cook goes for 5 .... another few years and the Jordan would be safe !!

JackW

GIN1138 said:

JackW said:

@David_Evershed

As requested.

Essentially my ARSE will be published fortnightly, normally on a Tuesday at 9.00am until the New Year.

What will happen to your ARSE after New Year?

Weekly.

DavidL

I am afraid to say Cook really should have resigned after the Sri Lanka debacle.

GIN1138

JackW said:

GIN1138 said:

JackW said:

@David_Evershed

As requested.

Essentially my ARSE will be published fortnightly, normally on a Tuesday at 9.00am until the New Year.

What will happen to your ARSE after New Year?

Weekly.

Then daily outpourings during April 15?

JackW

GIN1138 said:

JackW said:

GIN1138 said:

JackW said:

@David_Evershed

As requested.

Essentially my ARSE will be published fortnightly, normally on a Tuesday at 9.00am until the New Year.

What will happen to your ARSE after New Year?

Weekly.

Then daily outpourings during April 15?

I'll probably move to Mon, Wed and Fri from 4 weeks out.

surbiton

Pulpstar said:

I'm keeping a record of the ARSE, BJESUS, Dyed Woolie and my own projections in my vanillla front page btw so we have a clear reference as to who was right and who was wrong come GE2015.

You should start your database with the most respectable Dr Fisher's priceless prediction a year or so back. He predicted that the Tories had a 97% of winning an absolute majority.

You should ignore Rod Crosby's predictions as and when they are given. No point coming to a prediction close to the final opinion polls. Anyone can do that.

isam

Pulpstar said:

I'm keeping a record of the ARSE, BJESUS, Dyed Woolie and my own projections in my vanillla front page btw so we have a clear reference as to who was right and who was wrong come GE2015.

Another good way of keeping a record of how political betting has changed is to look at the price history of events on oddschecker

Money talks, and the impartiality is guaranteed

JackW

DavidL said:

I am afraid to say Cook really should have resigned after the Sri Lanka debacle.

The captain must justify his place in the first instance unless there are exceptional reasons to the contrary. With Cook there are none.

A N Other opener with his recent run would be dropped. Cook needs to go back to county cricket, get some decent scores and re-establish his batting confidence. Presently and sadly he is without doubt dead weight.

I would think he's got the next innings and the Lords test match to turn it around.

MarkSenior

Last weeks council by elections showed a fall in UKIP support , let us see what today's crop bring , There are a couple UKIP would have hoped to win at their peak .

GIN1138

JackW said:

GIN1138 said:

JackW said:

GIN1138 said:

JackW said:

@David_Evershed

As requested.

Essentially my ARSE will be published fortnightly, normally on a Tuesday at 9.00am until the New Year.

What will happen to your ARSE after New Year?

Weekly.

Then daily outpourings during April 15?

I'll probably move to Mon, Wed and Fri from 4 weeks out.

#ManWithAPlan

David_Evershed

JackW said:

@David_Evershed

As requested.

Essentially my ARSE will be published fortnightly, normally on a Tuesday at 9.00am until the New Year.

Many thanks to JackW for his ARSE.

The predictions presage a Con/Lib Dem coalition but with reduced numbers of Lib Dems there is only a narrow window of possible outcomes when this could happen. Nevertheless a very credible prediction of seat numbers

Nearly time for your night time drink Jack.

Anorak

JackW said:

DavidL said:

I am afraid to say Cook really should have resigned after the Sri Lanka debacle.

The captain must justify his place in the first instance unless there are exceptional reasons to the contrary. With Cook there are none.

A N Other opener with his recent run would be dropped. Cook needs to go back to county cricket, get some decent scores and re-establish his batting confidence. Presently and sadly he is without doubt dead weight.

I would think he's got the next innings and the Lords test match to turn it around.

That's optimistic. I think the grinding wheel is already spinning up, and the knives being laid out for sharpening. Which just isn't (but also very much is) cricket.

compouter2

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#mediaviewer/File:UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

Show me the crossover......Show me the crossover !

isam

JackW said:

DavidL said:

I am afraid to say Cook really should have resigned after the Sri Lanka debacle.

The captain must justify his place in the first instance unless there are exceptional reasons to the contrary. With Cook there are none.

A N Other opener with his recent run would be dropped. Cook needs to go back to county cricket, get some decent scores and re-establish his batting confidence. Presently and sadly he is without doubt dead weight.

I would think he's got the next innings and the Lords test match to turn it around.

AN Other wouldn't have been on course to break all known records for an English batsmen, and wouldn't have a chance to be the greatest test run scorer in history by the time he retires

Even If he doesn't pass 50 this summer he should still be opening the innings in the winter

JackW

David_Evershed said:

JackW said:

@David_Evershed

As requested.

Essentially my ARSE will be published fortnightly, normally on a Tuesday at 9.00am until the New Year.

Many thanks to JackW for his ARSE.

The predictions presage a Con/Lib Dem coalition but with reduced numbers of Lib Dems there is only a narrow window of possible outcomes when this could happen. Nevertheless a very credible prediction of seat numbers

Nearly time for your night time drink Jack.

"Night time drink ...."

I had that lunchtime with a very passable bottle of madeira .... couldn't resist sorry !!

isam

Michael Heaver (@Michael_Heaver)
10/07/2014 18:04
16 MPs Turn Up to EU Debate in Commons <- Absolutely no point voting for Conservative or Labour MPs order-order.com/2014/07/10/16-…

JackW

Anorak said:

JackW said:

DavidL said:

I am afraid to say Cook really should have resigned after the Sri Lanka debacle.

The captain must justify his place in the first instance unless there are exceptional reasons to the contrary. With Cook there are none.

A N Other opener with his recent run would be dropped. Cook needs to go back to county cricket, get some decent scores and re-establish his batting confidence. Presently and sadly he is without doubt dead weight.

I would think he's got the next innings and the Lords test match to turn it around.

That's optimistic. I think the grinding wheel is already spinning up, and the knives being laid out for sharpening. Which just isn't (but also very much is) cricket.

The trouble there is the whole England management team have tied their colours to Cook and you get the feeling they'll all go down together 5:0 if necessary rather than throw Cook to the wolves.

isam

Classic viz political joke

Viz Comic (@vizcomic)
10/07/2014 17:30
pic.twitter.com/6z8K6i53vV

JackW

isam said:

JackW said:

DavidL said:

I am afraid to say Cook really should have resigned after the Sri Lanka debacle.

The captain must justify his place in the first instance unless there are exceptional reasons to the contrary. With Cook there are none.

A N Other opener with his recent run would be dropped. Cook needs to go back to county cricket, get some decent scores and re-establish his batting confidence. Presently and sadly he is without doubt dead weight.

I would think he's got the next innings and the Lords test match to turn it around.

AN Other wouldn't have been on course to break all known records for an English batsmen, and wouldn't have a chance to be the greatest test run scorer in history by the time he retires

Even If he doesn't pass 50 this summer he should still be opening the innings in the winter

The England Captain isn't there so he might trickle past some record.

Cook has to justify his position as an opener - Failed
Cook has to justify his position as Captain - Failed

isam

JackW said:

isam said:

JackW said:

DavidL said:

I am afraid to say Cook really should have resigned after the Sri Lanka debacle.

The captain must justify his place in the first instance unless there are exceptional reasons to the contrary. With Cook there are none.

A N Other opener with his recent run would be dropped. Cook needs to go back to county cricket, get some decent scores and re-establish his batting confidence. Presently and sadly he is without doubt dead weight.

I would think he's got the next innings and the Lords test match to turn it around.

AN Other wouldn't have been on course to break all known records for an English batsmen, and wouldn't have a chance to be the greatest test run scorer in history by the time he retires

Even If he doesn't pass 50 this summer he should still be opening the innings in the winter

The England Captain isn't there so he might trickle past some record.

Cook has to justify his position as an opener - Failed
Cook has to justify his position as Captain - Failed

Class is permanent

Yourself and Mike should go to a refresher course in looking past current trends