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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ukip shares edging down with the pollster that got the May
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ukip shares edging down with the pollster that got the May Euro elections most right
YouGov, of course, was the most accurate pollster on the May 22nd Euro elections.
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Of course trade unions were a key force in the immigration restriction movement historically, the fact they no longer are and take the diametrically opposite position is proof of their capture by the militant tendency.
On other news today, after the portuguese banking crisis investors today are flocking to the amazing safety of cynk stocks (up another 10%).
Tells wonders about the sanity of the common folk.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Islands_general_election,_2014
Tamarua Constituency - 23 votes each of two candidates !!
A day or two ago you were promising an (ARSE) poll prediction.
I seem to have missed it. Could you repost here please.
I think it was TSE, apologies if I misremember, saying straight away that I was wrong to use a pollsters euro polling record as a guide to their GE accuracy
Yet the thread header relies on just that
Titter ....
Not clear what would happen to Ed Davey - maybe he could replace Vince Cable?
Jo Swinson - future Lib Dem leader?
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Change from 24th June Projection) :
Con 307 (-5) .. Lab 282 (+8) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 8 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 1 (-1) .. Respect 0 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 19 seats short of a majority
Labour 44 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - TCTC
Pudsey - TCTC
Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain
Cambridge - Likely LibDem Hold
Ipswich - TCTC
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold
Enfield - TCTC
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold (From Likely Con Hold)
Vale of Glamorgan - Likely Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - Likely Lab Hold (From TCTC)
Changes From 24th June - Great Yarmouth moves from Likely Con Hold to Con Hold and Ochil and South Perthshire moves from TCTC to Likely Lab Hold.
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500 votes
.......................................................................................
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
"There is little evidence yet of a fall in Ukip support now the European Parliament elections have passed, confounding the expectations of pundits who believed the European election victory was the "peak Ukip moment". Our estimates have Farage's party at 14.8 per cent, down just 0.1 per cent on last month. "
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/pollingobservatory/100279233/ignore-the-juncker-bounce-and-the-labour-surge-polls-may-bounce-but-public-opinion-usually-doesnt/
As requested.
Essentially my ARSE will be published fortnightly, normally on a Tuesday at 9.00am until the New Year.
However, the expectation has always been that UKIP would fall back a little as the Euro elections were left behind, just as they did after the local elections in 2013. The question is whether they stabilise at a higher level than last year.
At the same time after the local elections last year (so mid-June since the elections were 20 days earlier last spring) the 10-day average in the YouGov polls was 13.1, a smidgen higher than this years average of 12.1.
It takes a lot of faith to believe that UKIP will poll below 10% in the 2015 GE, though.
@Neil
Currently legislation requires action to be called within 4 weeks of the close of the ballot.
There is no need to mess around with timeframes.
Repeal of the Trade Disputes Act 1906 is the answer.
No person or organisation should be granted exemption from laws which apply to all others.
Peak Farage has passed. Hodges may be clothed yet.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/press/socialist-worker-called-to-apologise-over-vile-article-saying-eton-schoolboy-horatio-chapples-death-is-reason-to-save-the-polar-bears-9597931.html
People want them to fail so much don't they? Absolutely desperate
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
twitter.com/UKIP/status/487245214529376256/photo/1
I think we need to put this one in the 'need more data' box.
Comments like that, intended to put ukip down, only show how far they've come
OfCom carried out a wide consultation last year before ruling that UK broadcasters (excl. the BBC) should treat UKIP as a major party for the EP elections in all areas except Scotland.
A careful reading of the consultation and ruling documents show that a de facto threshold of 10% consistently achieved in opinion polls was one of the key benchmarks for deciding on major party status.
OfCom have announced no plans to carry out a futher consultation or make a new ruling for the General Election, but have said that, if they do make a ruling, it will be in October 2014.
My hunch is that if UKIP are still above 10% in the Opinion Polls come October there will be a stronger case for the party to be granted major status. If below, then OfCom not granting major status would be consistent with the results of the consultation and rulings made for the EP elections.
This is one to watch as it looks like being close with the outcome being significant.
Skewed samples of political nerds or extrapolations count for more
And when a party improves by 600% in a non friendly area with an apparently voter turn off of a candidate... it's a failure
Sure.
I'll let you in to a little secret.
Mike and myself don't always agree, we do have differing opinions.
My opinions are just that, opinions, not gospel, you and everyone else are free to disagree.
Although this next opinion is a fact.
The England cricket team are a great shower of Ed Miliband
http://order-order.com/2014/07/10/ed-miliband-ive-got-my-eyes-on-you
Please can we have the like button back? Pretty, please? If not the like button maybe the, "Thanks, I just spluttered my tea over the keyboard" button.
Almost ten million fewer Americans are uninsured: http://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/issue-briefs/2014/jul/Health-Coverage-Access-ACA
Medicare costs have fallen by $1,000 per participant:
http://www.vox.com/2014/7/9/5883843/the-amazing-mysterious-decline-in-medicares-price-tag
Considering they have
451 runs on the fricking board
England are batting last on this pitch
Rain forecast is sporadic at best and doubt it will cost many overs
India have decent spinners
That's a nice price right now.
Obviously a quiet day politically.
A graph designed to show a tiny, and possibly MOE, fall. The supposition could be correct because we would expect a rise up to the Euros and a fall afterwards - unless Europe stays in the news, and particularly if the EC go off on one of their more barmy brainwaves.
Junckergate may have slowed the expected slight fall, but without error bars the graph is evidence more of a wish-fulfillment fantasy.
The meaningful graph will be August and September, and then post the party conferences.
My unscientific guess? A gradual fall to the Ukip conference, a slight boost then and a gradual fall to about 11% by next May. But all dependent on Europe behaving in the meantime - a probably forlorn hope for the Europhiles.
Gave the bet up 3 hours ago but getting close now
This is not a tiny fall. From 14% in June to 12.1% in the first 8 polls of July.
Ukip under 10%?
LDs to bt Ukip?
Ukip not to win a seat?
Anŷ value?
You may well be right but for us geeks, what is the standard error and the 'p' value?
And as it happens, I would expect it to be falling slightly.
England
+£4.99
India
+£62.41
Draw
+£3.77
Expected current value: +£18.21
More runs than German goals versus Brazil ?
Mote runs than YG vote share for UKIP
More runs than Jordan's husbands
More runs than UKIP MP's .... titter
or .....
More runs than present number of Conservative MP's
Hides behind sofa ....
I'm also sure that after the summer doldrums, the kippers will rise again in the polls.
You should ignore Rod Crosby's predictions as and when they are given. No point coming to a prediction close to the final opinion polls. Anyone can do that.
Money talks, and the impartiality is guaranteed
A N Other opener with his recent run would be dropped. Cook needs to go back to county cricket, get some decent scores and re-establish his batting confidence. Presently and sadly he is without doubt dead weight.
I would think he's got the next innings and the Lords test match to turn it around.
Many thanks to JackW for his ARSE.
The predictions presage a Con/Lib Dem coalition but with reduced numbers of Lib Dems there is only a narrow window of possible outcomes when this could happen. Nevertheless a very credible prediction of seat numbers
Nearly time for your night time drink Jack.
Show me the crossover......Show me the crossover !
Even If he doesn't pass 50 this summer he should still be opening the innings in the winter
I had that lunchtime with a very passable bottle of madeira .... couldn't resist sorry !!
10/07/2014 18:04
16 MPs Turn Up to EU Debate in Commons <- Absolutely no point voting for Conservative or Labour MPs order-order.com/2014/07/10/16-…
Viz Comic (@vizcomic)
10/07/2014 17:30
pic.twitter.com/6z8K6i53vV
Cook has to justify his position as an opener - Failed
Cook has to justify his position as Captain - Failed
Yourself and Mike should go to a refresher course in looking past current trends