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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ukip shares edging down with the pollster that got the May

SystemSystem Posts: 12,553
edited July 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ukip shares edging down with the pollster that got the May Euro elections most right

YouGov, of course, was the most accurate pollster on the May 22nd Euro elections.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    England opener does well.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,715
    edited July 2014
    David_Evershed said:

    How likely is it that India's last wicket stand will be higher than England's first wicket stand?

    Are India's bowlers better at batting than the England openers?

    With Captain "Edge to slip" Cook, doubt a bookie will offer you a market on that..
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Actually UKIP is the only party seeing its polling numbers rise. Labour is flatflining as are the Conservatives with Lib Dems ever falling. I could link to today's article on this but shan't. Statistical noise doesn't warrant much analysis.

    Of course trade unions were a key force in the immigration restriction movement historically, the fact they no longer are and take the diametrically opposite position is proof of their capture by the militant tendency.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,553
    FalseFlag said:

    Actually UKIP is the only party seeing its polling numbers rise. Labour is flatflining as are the Conservatives with Lib Dems ever falling. I could link to today's article on this but shan't. Statistical noise doesn't warrant much analysis.

    Of course trade unions were a key force in the immigration restriction movement historically, the fact they no longer are and take the diametrically opposite position is proof of their capture by the militant tendency.

    You're right. The chart is a lie.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Pulpstar said:

    David_Evershed said:

    How likely is it that India's last wicket stand will be higher than England's first wicket stand?

    Are India's bowlers better at batting than the England openers?

    With Captain "Edge to slip" Cook, doubt a bookie will offer you a market on that..
    Talking of "Cook" what happened to his Islands general election held today. Are the Dimbleby mob out there on a South Seas jolly ?

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,715
    On topic looks like noise to me - the data laws (Coalition ire) and strikes (Inexorably linked to Miliband/Labour) will help keep UKIP up for the moment.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,129
    Hang on, when I mentioned ICMs 20% for Ukip 35% for Labour, @tse was on to me quick as a flash to say you couldn't compare euro polls with those for the GE
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Too early, too few yougov polls.
    On other news today, after the portuguese banking crisis investors today are flocking to the amazing safety of cynk stocks (up another 10%).
    Tells wonders about the sanity of the common folk.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    isam said:

    Hang on, when I mentioned ICMs 20% for Ukip 35% for Labour, @tse was on to me quick as a flash to say you couldn't compare euro polls with those for the GE

    Those are all GE polls, arent they?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited July 2014
    Cook Islands General Election (Provisional Results)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Islands_general_election,_2014

    Tamarua Constituency - 23 votes each of two candidates !!
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    JackW

    A day or two ago you were promising an (ARSE) poll prediction.

    I seem to have missed it. Could you repost here please.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,129
    Neil said:


    isam said:

    Hang on, when I mentioned ICMs 20% for Ukip 35% for Labour, @tse was on to me quick as a flash to say you couldn't compare euro polls with those for the GE

    Those are all GE polls, arent they?
    I said If ICM were so fantastic, how do we explain their 20% for ukip and 35% for Labour in the euros?

    I think it was TSE, apologies if I misremember, saying straight away that I was wrong to use a pollsters euro polling record as a guide to their GE accuracy

    Yet the thread header relies on just that
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    David_Evershed said:

    JackW

    A day or two ago you were promising an (ARSE) poll prediction.

    I seem to have missed it. Could you repost here please.

    Ok .... after the fall of the last Indian wicket .... we may be some time.

    Titter ....

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    It's over for UKIP - Time to disband and support Con to secure 2017 referendum.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited July 2014
    Lib Dem Voice (quoting George Eaton in the New Statesman) is tipping Jo Swinson to replace Ed Davey as Sec of State at Energy in a reshuffle and Jenny Willott to take her job at Dept of Business, Innovation and Skills.

    Not clear what would happen to Ed Davey - maybe he could replace Vince Cable?

    Jo Swinson - future Lib Dem leader?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    GIN1138 said:

    It's over for UKIP - Time to disband and support Con to secure 2017 referendum.

    It would be much more convenient if they could hang around, poll about 9%, cost the Tories loads of seats and make me a nice profit.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

    The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Change from 24th June Projection) :

    Con 307 (-5) .. Lab 282 (+8) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 8 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 1 (-1) .. Respect 0 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

    Conservatives 19 seats short of a majority
    Labour 44 seats short of a majority
    ......................................................................................

    "JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :

    Bury North - TCTC
    Pudsey - TCTC
    Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
    Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain
    Cambridge - Likely LibDem Hold
    Ipswich - TCTC
    Watford - TCTC
    Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold
    Enfield - TCTC
    Cornwall North - TCTC
    Great Yarmouth - Con Hold (From Likely Con Hold)
    Vale of Glamorgan - Likely Con Hold
    Ochil and South Perthshire - Likely Lab Hold (From TCTC)

    Changes From 24th June - Great Yarmouth moves from Likely Con Hold to Con Hold and Ochil and South Perthshire moves from TCTC to Likely Lab Hold.

    TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
    Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
    Gain/Hold - Over 2500 votes
    .......................................................................................

    WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
    JNN - Jacobite News Network
    ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    The Polling Observatory report for June said of UKIP:
    "There is little evidence yet of a fall in Ukip support now the European Parliament elections have passed, confounding the expectations of pundits who believed the European election victory was the "peak Ukip moment". Our estimates have Farage's party at 14.8 per cent, down just 0.1 per cent on last month. "

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/pollingobservatory/100279233/ignore-the-juncker-bounce-and-the-labour-surge-polls-may-bounce-but-public-opinion-usually-doesnt/
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    David_Evershed said:


    Jo Swinson - future Lib Dem leader?

    She'll be (temporarily) unemployed in less than a year.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @David_Evershed

    As requested.

    Essentially my ARSE will be published fortnightly, normally on a Tuesday at 9.00am until the New Year.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    I would prefer a like-with-like comparison - what would the month-to-month variability look like if the other months were based on figures published by the afternoon of the 10th of each month?

    However, the expectation has always been that UKIP would fall back a little as the Euro elections were left behind, just as they did after the local elections in 2013. The question is whether they stabilise at a higher level than last year.

    At the same time after the local elections last year (so mid-June since the elections were 20 days earlier last spring) the 10-day average in the YouGov polls was 13.1, a smidgen higher than this years average of 12.1.

    It takes a lot of faith to believe that UKIP will poll below 10% in the 2015 GE, though.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited July 2014
    FPT

    @Neil‌

    Currently legislation requires action to be called within 4 weeks of the close of the ballot.

    There is no need to mess around with timeframes.

    Repeal of the Trade Disputes Act 1906 is the answer.

    No person or organisation should be granted exemption from laws which apply to all others.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    OblitusSumMe said:


    It takes a lot of faith to believe that UKIP will poll below 10% in the 2015 GE, though.

    You just have to believe.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Uh oh - have been pointing this out to the Kippers and they don't like it "but we won a national election"

    Peak Farage has passed. Hodges may be clothed yet.

  • isamisam Posts: 42,129
    This is in incredible bad taste from the Socialist Worker.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/press/socialist-worker-called-to-apologise-over-vile-article-saying-eton-schoolboy-horatio-chapples-death-is-reason-to-save-the-polar-bears-9597931.html
  • isamisam Posts: 42,129
    OblitusSumMe said:

    I would prefer a like-with-like comparison - what would the month-to-month variability look like if the other months were based on figures published by the afternoon of the 10th of each month?

    However, the expectation has always been that UKIP would fall back a little as the Euro elections were left behind, just as they did after the local elections in 2013. The question is whether they stabilise at a higher level than last year.

    At the same time after the local elections last year (so mid-June since the elections were 20 days earlier last spring) the 10-day average in the YouGov polls was 13.1, a smidgen higher than this years average of 12.1.

    It takes a lot of faith to believe that UKIP will poll below 10% in the 2015 GE, though.

    There was a thread on here last week showing that ukip were the only party to improve its score in the last month

    People want them to fail so much don't they? Absolutely desperate
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited July 2014
    Ukip just aren't scoring over 14 with YG anymore.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    isam said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    I would prefer a like-with-like comparison - what would the month-to-month variability look like if the other months were based on figures published by the afternoon of the 10th of each month?

    However, the expectation has always been that UKIP would fall back a little as the Euro elections were left behind, just as they did after the local elections in 2013. The question is whether they stabilise at a higher level than last year.

    At the same time after the local elections last year (so mid-June since the elections were 20 days earlier last spring) the 10-day average in the YouGov polls was 13.1, a smidgen higher than this years average of 12.1.

    It takes a lot of faith to believe that UKIP will poll below 10% in the 2015 GE, though.

    There was a thread on here last week showing that ukip were the only party to improve its score in the last month.
    The party or College?

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Empty chamber for the EU Justice and Home Affairs debate in the HoC.

    twitter.com/UKIP/status/487245214529376256/photo/1
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited July 2014
    Hmm, not sure we've got sufficient data to indicate that UKIP support is edging down, for now at least. On YouGov's figures it might have dropped a smidgen recently, but I can't see any consistent pattern of UKIP losing share with other pollsters.

    I think we need to put this one in the 'need more data' box.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    TGOHF said:

    Uh oh - have been pointing this out to the Kippers and they don't like it "but we won a national election"

    Yes. It's an important point. Shocking as it may be, elections also measure public support.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,715
    Oh what the Lib Dems would do for a Yougov chart like that over H1 !!
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    anotherDave said:

    The Polling Observatory report for June said of UKIP:
    "There is little evidence yet of a fall in Ukip support now the European Parliament elections have passed, confounding the expectations of pundits who believed the European election victory was the "peak Ukip moment". Our estimates have Farage's party at 14.8 per cent, down just 0.1 per cent on last month. "

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/pollingobservatory/100279233/ignore-the-juncker-bounce-and-the-labour-surge-polls-may-bounce-but-public-opinion-usually-doesnt/

    Bingo, more amusing is Labour arresting their relentless 2014 slide for a whole month and the Ed surge hysteria it provoked.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,129
    edited July 2014
    TGOHF said:

    Ukip just aren't scoring over 14 with YG anymore.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Haha 2 weeks!

    Comments like that, intended to put ukip down, only show how far they've come
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    anotherDave said:

    The Polling Observatory report for June said of UKIP:
    "There is little evidence yet of a fall in Ukip support now the European Parliament elections have passed, confounding the expectations of pundits who believed the European election victory was the "peak Ukip moment". Our estimates have Farage's party at 14.8 per cent, down just 0.1 per cent on last month. "

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/pollingobservatory/100279233/ignore-the-juncker-bounce-and-the-labour-surge-polls-may-bounce-but-public-opinion-usually-doesnt/

    That was June. This is July and we've already had 8 YouGov polls

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited July 2014
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Hmm, not sure we've got sufficient data to indicate that UKIP support is edging down, for now at least. On YouGov's figures it might have dropped a smidgen recently, but I can't see any consistent pattern of UKIP losing share with other pollsters.

    I think we need to put this one in the 'need more data' box.

    There is a significance to the UKIP VI share which we may be missing.

    OfCom carried out a wide consultation last year before ruling that UK broadcasters (excl. the BBC) should treat UKIP as a major party for the EP elections in all areas except Scotland.

    A careful reading of the consultation and ruling documents show that a de facto threshold of 10% consistently achieved in opinion polls was one of the key benchmarks for deciding on major party status.

    OfCom have announced no plans to carry out a futher consultation or make a new ruling for the General Election, but have said that, if they do make a ruling, it will be in October 2014.

    My hunch is that if UKIP are still above 10% in the Opinion Polls come October there will be a stronger case for the party to be granted major status. If below, then OfCom not granting major status would be consistent with the results of the consultation and rulings made for the EP elections.

    This is one to watch as it looks like being close with the outcome being significant.

  • isamisam Posts: 42,129
    anotherDave said:

    TGOHF said:

    Uh oh - have been pointing this out to the Kippers and they don't like it "but we won a national election"

    Yes. It's an important point. Shocking as it may be, elections also measure public support.
    Real votes don't matter on here

    Skewed samples of political nerds or extrapolations count for more

    And when a party improves by 600% in a non friendly area with an apparently voter turn off of a candidate... it's a failure
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ukip just aren't scoring over 14 with YG anymore.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Haha 2 weeks!

    Comments like that, intended to put ukip down, only show how far they've come
    Find the last 2 week period when they didn't score 14 or above once..
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited July 2014
    AveryLP said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Hmm, not sure we've got sufficient data to indicate that UKIP support is edging down, for now at least. On YouGov's figures it might have dropped a smidgen recently, but I can't see any consistent pattern of UKIP losing share with other pollsters.

    I think we need to put this one in the 'need more data' box.

    There is a significance to the UKIP VI share which we may be missing.

    OfCom carried out a wide consultation last year before ruling that UK broadcasters (excl. the BBC) should treat UKIP as a major party for the EP elections in all areas except Scotland.

    A careful reading of the consultation and ruling documents show that a de facto threshold of 10% consistently achieved in opinion polls was one of the key benchmarks for deciding on major party status.

    OfCom have announced no plans to carry out a futher consultation or make a new ruling for the General Election, but have said that, if they do make a ruling, it will be in October 2014.

    My hunch is that if UKIP are still above 10% in the Opinion Polls come October there will be a strong case for the party to be granted major status. If below, then OfCom not granting major status would be consistent with the results of the consultation and rulings made for the EP elections.

    This is one to watch as it looks like being close with the outcome being significant.

    Ten percent in the polls on a consistent basis would seem to be very reasonable logic from the electoral commission.
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Sure Ed is all set to sweep into Downing Street, never mind the very strong forward looking economic indicators, the well established historical relationship between unemployment, inflation, interest rates and wages on voting intentions nor indeed Ed's own dire personal ratings. Of course the fantastically unpopular Lib Dems with their wildly out of touch policies on Europe and immigration means they are well due a come back.

    Sure.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,129
    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ukip just aren't scoring over 14 with YG anymore.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Haha 2 weeks!

    Comments like that, intended to put ukip down, only show how far they've come
    Find the last 2 week period when they didn't score 14 or above once..
    Oh pity poor Harry! So desperate for those pesky kippers to fail
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,586
    edited July 2014
    isam said:

    Neil said:


    isam said:

    Hang on, when I mentioned ICMs 20% for Ukip 35% for Labour, @tse was on to me quick as a flash to say you couldn't compare euro polls with those for the GE

    Those are all GE polls, arent they?
    I said If ICM were so fantastic, how do we explain their 20% for ukip and 35% for Labour in the euros?

    I think it was TSE, apologies if I misremember, saying straight away that I was wrong to use a pollsters euro polling record as a guide to their GE accuracy

    Yet the thread header relies on just that
    It was I.

    I'll let you in to a little secret.

    Mike and myself don't always agree, we do have differing opinions.

    My opinions are just that, opinions, not gospel, you and everyone else are free to disagree.

    Although this next opinion is a fact.

    The England cricket team are a great shower of Ed Miliband
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    What with this and the sniffing, you've got to wonder...

    http://order-order.com/2014/07/10/ed-miliband-ive-got-my-eyes-on-you
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ukip just aren't scoring over 14 with YG anymore.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Haha 2 weeks!

    Comments like that, intended to put ukip down, only show how far they've come
    Find the last 2 week period when they didn't score 14 or above once..
    Oh pity poor Harry! So desperate for those pesky kippers to fail
    Stick to the facts old bean. YG just can't find as many kippers as they could - they are like North Sea cod.

  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    "The England cricket team are a great shower of Ed Miliband "

    Please can we have the like button back? Pretty, please? If not the like button maybe the, "Thanks, I just spluttered my tea over the keyboard" button.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Anorak said:

    What with this and the sniffing, you've got to wonder...

    http://order-order.com/2014/07/10/ed-miliband-ive-got-my-eyes-on-you

    Ed's just plain weird, isn't he?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ukip just aren't scoring over 14 with YG anymore.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Haha 2 weeks!

    Comments like that, intended to put ukip down, only show how far they've come
    Find the last 2 week period when they didn't score 14 or above once..
    Looks like it was the second half of March. Is that a long time ago, or not?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Obamacare proving to be a real success.

    Almost ten million fewer Americans are uninsured: http://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/issue-briefs/2014/jul/Health-Coverage-Access-ACA

    Medicare costs have fallen by $1,000 per participant:
    http://www.vox.com/2014/7/9/5883843/the-amazing-mysterious-decline-in-medicares-price-tag
  • isamisam Posts: 42,129
    edited July 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    Neil said:


    isam said:

    Hang on, when I mentioned ICMs 20% for Ukip 35% for Labour, @tse was on to me quick as a flash to say you couldn't compare euro polls with those for the GE

    Those are all GE polls, arent they?
    I said If ICM were so fantastic, how do we explain their 20% for ukip and 35% for Labour in the euros?

    I think it was TSE, apologies if I misremember, saying straight away that I was wrong to use a pollsters euro polling record as a guide to their GE accuracy

    Yet the thread header relies on just that
    It was I.

    I'll let you in to a little secret.

    Mike and myself don't always agree, we do have differing opinions.

    My opinions are just that, opinions, not gospel, you and everyone else are free to disagree.

    Although this next opinion is a fact.

    The England cricket team are a great shower of Ed Miliband
    Fair enough, just didn't see you correcting Mike as you did me
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,715
    edited July 2014
    India 3.8/3.85

    Considering they have

    451 runs on the fricking board
    England are batting last on this pitch
    Rain forecast is sporadic at best and doubt it will cost many overs
    India have decent spinners

    That's a nice price right now.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,386

    Obviously a quiet day politically.

    A graph designed to show a tiny, and possibly MOE, fall. The supposition could be correct because we would expect a rise up to the Euros and a fall afterwards - unless Europe stays in the news, and particularly if the EC go off on one of their more barmy brainwaves.

    Junckergate may have slowed the expected slight fall, but without error bars the graph is evidence more of a wish-fulfillment fantasy.

    The meaningful graph will be August and September, and then post the party conferences.

    My unscientific guess? A gradual fall to the Ukip conference, a slight boost then and a gradual fall to about 11% by next May. But all dependent on Europe behaving in the meantime - a probably forlorn hope for the Europhiles.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,946
    Pulpstar said:

    India 3.8/3.85

    Considering

    England are batting last on this pitch
    Rain forecast is sporadic at best and doubt it will cost many overs
    India have decent spinners (I think)

    That's a nice price right now.

    They will probably be all oou for 460 as i had a bet earlier today at evens on over 460

    Gave the bet up 3 hours ago but getting close now
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited July 2014
    CD13 said:


    Obviously a quiet day politically.

    A graph designed to show a tiny, and possibly MOE, fall. The supposition could be correct because we would expect a rise up to the Euros and a fall afterwards - unless Europe stays in the news, and particularly if the EC go off on one of their more barmy brainwaves.

    Junckergate may have slowed the expected slight fall, but without error bars the graph is evidence more of a wish-fulfillment fantasy.

    The meaningful graph will be August and September, and then post the party conferences.

    My unscientific guess? A gradual fall to the Ukip conference, a slight boost then and a gradual fall to about 11% by next May. But all dependent on Europe behaving in the meantime - a probably forlorn hope for the Europhiles.

    This is not margin of error stuff. It is based on 8 polls with total sample size of about 15k

    This is not a tiny fall. From 14% in June to 12.1% in the first 8 polls of July.

  • isamisam Posts: 42,129
    MikeSmithson said:

    CD13 said:


    Obviously a quiet day politically.

    A graph designed to show a tiny, and possibly MOE, fall. The supposition could be correct because we would expect a rise up to the Euros and a fall afterwards - unless Europe stays in the news, and particularly if the EC go off on one of their more barmy brainwaves.

    Junckergate may have slowed the expected slight fall, but without error bars the graph is evidence more of a wish-fulfillment fantasy.

    The meaningful graph will be August and September, and then post the party conferences.

    My unscientific guess? A gradual fall to the Ukip conference, a slight boost then and a gradual fall to about 11% by next May. But all dependent on Europe behaving in the meantime - a probably forlorn hope for the Europhiles.

    This is not margin of error stuff. It is based on 8 polls with total sample size of about 15k

    This is not a tiny fall. From 14% in June to 12.1% in the first 8 polls of July.

    Ooh bold means told!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,715
    MikeSmithson said:

    CD13 said:


    Obviously a quiet day politically.

    A graph designed to show a tiny, and possibly MOE, fall. The supposition could be correct because we would expect a rise up to the Euros and a fall afterwards - unless Europe stays in the news, and particularly if the EC go off on one of their more barmy brainwaves.

    Junckergate may have slowed the expected slight fall, but without error bars the graph is evidence more of a wish-fulfillment fantasy.

    The meaningful graph will be August and September, and then post the party conferences.

    My unscientific guess? A gradual fall to the Ukip conference, a slight boost then and a gradual fall to about 11% by next May. But all dependent on Europe behaving in the meantime - a probably forlorn hope for the Europhiles.

    This is not margin of error stuff. It is based on 8 polls with total sample size of about 15k

    This is not a tiny fall. From 14% in June to 12.1% in the first 8 polls of July.

    Is the graph using the unrounded Yougov weighted figures though ?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,129
    What bets should we be having on the back of this info Mike?

    Ukip under 10%?
    LDs to bt Ukip?
    Ukip not to win a seat?

    Anŷ value?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,386
    Mr Smithson,

    You may well be right but for us geeks, what is the standard error and the 'p' value?

    And as it happens, I would expect it to be falling slightly.
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited July 2014
    AveryLP said:

    There is no need to mess around with timeframes.

    Repeal of the Trade Disputes Act 1906 is the answer.

    No person or organisation should be granted exemption from laws which apply to all others.

    The 1906 Act is already repealed. The principle you advocate, however, is exactly right. The Conspiracy and Protection of Property Act 1875 remains the best way to deal with conspiracies in restraint of trade.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,946
    Bugger 4 runs short. Mind you 3 wkts straight after lunch made my evens bet a 100/1 shot
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,715
    bigjohnowls said:

    Pulpstar said:

    India 3.8/3.85

    Considering

    England are batting last on this pitch
    Rain forecast is sporadic at best and doubt it will cost many overs
    India have decent spinners (I think)

    That's a nice price right now.

    They will probably be all oou for 460 as i had a bet earlier today at evens on over 460

    Gave the bet up 3 hours ago but getting close now
    Unlucky !
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,715
    edited July 2014
    Pulpstar's book at innings change:

    England
    +£4.99

    India
    +£62.41

    Draw
    +£3.77

    Expected current value: +£18.21
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    OblitusSumMe said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ukip just aren't scoring over 14 with YG anymore.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Haha 2 weeks!

    Comments like that, intended to put ukip down, only show how far they've come
    Find the last 2 week period when they didn't score 14 or above once..
    Looks like it was the second half of March. Is that a long time ago, or not?
    I'd say that is a long time but 3 times that until the election.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited July 2014
    Cook coming out to bat shortly ....

    More runs than German goals versus Brazil ?
    Mote runs than YG vote share for UKIP
    More runs than Jordan's husbands
    More runs than UKIP MP's .... titter

    or .....

    More runs than present number of Conservative MP's

    Hides behind sofa ....
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    isam said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    CD13 said:


    Obviously a quiet day politically.

    A graph designed to show a tiny, and possibly MOE, fall. The supposition could be correct because we would expect a rise up to the Euros and a fall afterwards - unless Europe stays in the news, and particularly if the EC go off on one of their more barmy brainwaves.

    Junckergate may have slowed the expected slight fall, but without error bars the graph is evidence more of a wish-fulfillment fantasy.

    The meaningful graph will be August and September, and then post the party conferences.

    My unscientific guess? A gradual fall to the Ukip conference, a slight boost then and a gradual fall to about 11% by next May. But all dependent on Europe behaving in the meantime - a probably forlorn hope for the Europhiles.

    This is not margin of error stuff. It is based on 8 polls with total sample size of about 15k

    This is not a tiny fall. From 14% in June to 12.1% in the first 8 polls of July.

    Ooh bold means told!
    At least he didn't call you, "Sunshine". Mr. Smithson can be so Mr. Grumpy at times.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar's book at innings change:

    England
    +£4.99

    India
    +£62.41

    Draw
    +£3.77

    Expected current value: +£18.21

    I've lumped on India at 4s - should be 3 down by the close.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Only a fool would have expected Ukip to maintain their poll ratings after the Euro elections. Looks like they are back to where they were earlier in the year. No surprise there, I wouldn't be reading anything into this until they drop below 10%. It would be nice to see the average over the last 12 months. Without checking it seems like Ukip have had a big rise before flatlining just above 10%. Rather the opposite of the Lib Dems who had a sudden drop to around 10% and have stayed there ever since (dropped marginally since). The Tories also seem to be flatlining over the last year (taking all polls into account). Labour are still falling but everything else seems set.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Phew .... Cook beats UKIP MP's number .... just.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,715
    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar's book at innings change:

    England
    +£4.99

    India
    +£62.41

    Draw
    +£3.77

    Expected current value: +£18.21

    I've lumped on India at 4s - should be 3 down by the close.
    Totally agree, nice to be in the green on all outcomes though I did lay off England at 12.5 for £3 just now. But indeed keeping the major profit on India here.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    AveryLP said:

    isam said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    I would prefer a like-with-like comparison - what would the month-to-month variability look like if the other months were based on figures published by the afternoon of the 10th of each month?

    However, the expectation has always been that UKIP would fall back a little as the Euro elections were left behind, just as they did after the local elections in 2013. The question is whether they stabilise at a higher level than last year.

    At the same time after the local elections last year (so mid-June since the elections were 20 days earlier last spring) the 10-day average in the YouGov polls was 13.1, a smidgen higher than this years average of 12.1.

    It takes a lot of faith to believe that UKIP will poll below 10% in the 2015 GE, though.

    There was a thread on here last week showing that ukip were the only party to improve its score in the last month.
    The party or College?

    What's this College thing you keep going on about?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    It's not surprising that UKIP, being kept out of the news should show a drop.
    I'm also sure that after the summer doldrums, the kippers will rise again in the polls.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    @HurstLlama - I'll get back to you on dates.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,715
    Haha What the hell is the chap in the green doing, trying to smash the pitch up for the Indian spinners later ?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Cook eases past the number of Jordan's husbands.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    JackW said:

    @David_Evershed

    As requested.

    Essentially my ARSE will be published fortnightly, normally on a Tuesday at 9.00am until the New Year.

    What will happen to your ARSE after New Year?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    GIN1138 said:

    JackW said:

    @David_Evershed

    As requested.

    Essentially my ARSE will be published fortnightly, normally on a Tuesday at 9.00am until the New Year.

    What will happen to your ARSE after New Year?
    Prolapse.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar's book at innings change:

    England
    +£4.99

    India
    +£62.41

    Draw
    +£3.77

    Expected current value: +£18.21

    I've lumped on India at 4s - should be 3 down by the close.
    Totally agree, nice to be in the green on all outcomes though I did lay off England at 12.5 for £3 just now. But indeed keeping the major profit on India here.
    I did rather well this afternoon backing Indian runs as the wickets tumbled - was horribly inevitable.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,715
    I'm keeping a record of the ARSE, BJESUS, Dyed Woolie and my own projections in my vanillla front page btw so we have a clear reference as to who was right and who was wrong come GE2015.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    GIN1138 said:

    JackW said:

    @David_Evershed

    As requested.

    Essentially my ARSE will be published fortnightly, normally on a Tuesday at 9.00am until the New Year.

    What will happen to your ARSE after New Year?
    Weekly outpourings ?
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    2nd reading of the UK's modern slavery bill today.This is further evidence of Ms May's statesmanship,or stateswomanship,with a piece of legislation that will mean she will acquire added value.It's a great shame she cannot back the Human Rights Act as well but her leadership credentials are there for all to see.Come the Tories' Derby Day, next May,the 4-1 currently available could look pretty big.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,715
    Well that was predictable.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Cook goes for 5 .... another few years and the Jordan would be safe !!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    GIN1138 said:

    JackW said:

    @David_Evershed

    As requested.

    Essentially my ARSE will be published fortnightly, normally on a Tuesday at 9.00am until the New Year.

    What will happen to your ARSE after New Year?
    Weekly.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,714
    I am afraid to say Cook really should have resigned after the Sri Lanka debacle.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    JackW said:

    GIN1138 said:

    JackW said:

    @David_Evershed

    As requested.

    Essentially my ARSE will be published fortnightly, normally on a Tuesday at 9.00am until the New Year.

    What will happen to your ARSE after New Year?
    Weekly.

    Then daily outpourings during April 15?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    GIN1138 said:

    JackW said:

    GIN1138 said:

    JackW said:

    @David_Evershed

    As requested.

    Essentially my ARSE will be published fortnightly, normally on a Tuesday at 9.00am until the New Year.

    What will happen to your ARSE after New Year?
    Weekly.

    Then daily outpourings during April 15?
    I'll probably move to Mon, Wed and Fri from 4 weeks out.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm keeping a record of the ARSE, BJESUS, Dyed Woolie and my own projections in my vanillla front page btw so we have a clear reference as to who was right and who was wrong come GE2015.

    You should start your database with the most respectable Dr Fisher's priceless prediction a year or so back. He predicted that the Tories had a 97% of winning an absolute majority.

    You should ignore Rod Crosby's predictions as and when they are given. No point coming to a prediction close to the final opinion polls. Anyone can do that.

  • isamisam Posts: 42,129
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm keeping a record of the ARSE, BJESUS, Dyed Woolie and my own projections in my vanillla front page btw so we have a clear reference as to who was right and who was wrong come GE2015.

    Another good way of keeping a record of how political betting has changed is to look at the price history of events on oddschecker

    Money talks, and the impartiality is guaranteed
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    DavidL said:

    I am afraid to say Cook really should have resigned after the Sri Lanka debacle.

    The captain must justify his place in the first instance unless there are exceptional reasons to the contrary. With Cook there are none.

    A N Other opener with his recent run would be dropped. Cook needs to go back to county cricket, get some decent scores and re-establish his batting confidence. Presently and sadly he is without doubt dead weight.

    I would think he's got the next innings and the Lords test match to turn it around.

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Last weeks council by elections showed a fall in UKIP support , let us see what today's crop bring , There are a couple UKIP would have hoped to win at their peak .
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    JackW said:

    GIN1138 said:

    JackW said:

    GIN1138 said:

    JackW said:

    @David_Evershed

    As requested.

    Essentially my ARSE will be published fortnightly, normally on a Tuesday at 9.00am until the New Year.

    What will happen to your ARSE after New Year?
    Weekly.

    Then daily outpourings during April 15?
    I'll probably move to Mon, Wed and Fri from 4 weeks out.

    #ManWithAPlan
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    JackW said:

    @David_Evershed

    As requested.

    Essentially my ARSE will be published fortnightly, normally on a Tuesday at 9.00am until the New Year.


    Many thanks to JackW for his ARSE.

    The predictions presage a Con/Lib Dem coalition but with reduced numbers of Lib Dems there is only a narrow window of possible outcomes when this could happen. Nevertheless a very credible prediction of seat numbers

    Nearly time for your night time drink Jack.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited July 2014
    JackW said:

    DavidL said:

    I am afraid to say Cook really should have resigned after the Sri Lanka debacle.

    The captain must justify his place in the first instance unless there are exceptional reasons to the contrary. With Cook there are none.

    A N Other opener with his recent run would be dropped. Cook needs to go back to county cricket, get some decent scores and re-establish his batting confidence. Presently and sadly he is without doubt dead weight.

    I would think he's got the next innings and the Lords test match to turn it around.

    That's optimistic. I think the grinding wheel is already spinning up, and the knives being laid out for sharpening. Which just isn't (but also very much is) cricket.

  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#mediaviewer/File:UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

    Show me the crossover......Show me the crossover !
  • isamisam Posts: 42,129
    edited July 2014
    JackW said:

    DavidL said:

    I am afraid to say Cook really should have resigned after the Sri Lanka debacle.

    The captain must justify his place in the first instance unless there are exceptional reasons to the contrary. With Cook there are none.

    A N Other opener with his recent run would be dropped. Cook needs to go back to county cricket, get some decent scores and re-establish his batting confidence. Presently and sadly he is without doubt dead weight.

    I would think he's got the next innings and the Lords test match to turn it around.

    AN Other wouldn't have been on course to break all known records for an English batsmen, and wouldn't have a chance to be the greatest test run scorer in history by the time he retires

    Even If he doesn't pass 50 this summer he should still be opening the innings in the winter
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    David_Evershed said:

    JackW said:

    @David_Evershed

    As requested.

    Essentially my ARSE will be published fortnightly, normally on a Tuesday at 9.00am until the New Year.


    Many thanks to JackW for his ARSE.

    The predictions presage a Con/Lib Dem coalition but with reduced numbers of Lib Dems there is only a narrow window of possible outcomes when this could happen. Nevertheless a very credible prediction of seat numbers

    Nearly time for your night time drink Jack.
    "Night time drink ...."

    I had that lunchtime with a very passable bottle of madeira .... couldn't resist sorry !!

  • isamisam Posts: 42,129
    Michael Heaver (@Michael_Heaver)
    10/07/2014 18:04
    16 MPs Turn Up to EU Debate in Commons <- Absolutely no point voting for Conservative or Labour MPs order-order.com/2014/07/10/16-…
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Anorak said:

    JackW said:

    DavidL said:

    I am afraid to say Cook really should have resigned after the Sri Lanka debacle.

    The captain must justify his place in the first instance unless there are exceptional reasons to the contrary. With Cook there are none.

    A N Other opener with his recent run would be dropped. Cook needs to go back to county cricket, get some decent scores and re-establish his batting confidence. Presently and sadly he is without doubt dead weight.

    I would think he's got the next innings and the Lords test match to turn it around.

    That's optimistic. I think the grinding wheel is already spinning up, and the knives being laid out for sharpening. Which just isn't (but also very much is) cricket.

    The trouble there is the whole England management team have tied their colours to Cook and you get the feeling they'll all go down together 5:0 if necessary rather than throw Cook to the wolves.

  • isamisam Posts: 42,129
    Classic viz political joke

    Viz Comic (@vizcomic)
    10/07/2014 17:30
    pic.twitter.com/6z8K6i53vV
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    isam said:

    JackW said:

    DavidL said:

    I am afraid to say Cook really should have resigned after the Sri Lanka debacle.

    The captain must justify his place in the first instance unless there are exceptional reasons to the contrary. With Cook there are none.

    A N Other opener with his recent run would be dropped. Cook needs to go back to county cricket, get some decent scores and re-establish his batting confidence. Presently and sadly he is without doubt dead weight.

    I would think he's got the next innings and the Lords test match to turn it around.

    AN Other wouldn't have been on course to break all known records for an English batsmen, and wouldn't have a chance to be the greatest test run scorer in history by the time he retires

    Even If he doesn't pass 50 this summer he should still be opening the innings in the winter
    The England Captain isn't there so he might trickle past some record.

    Cook has to justify his position as an opener - Failed
    Cook has to justify his position as Captain - Failed



  • isamisam Posts: 42,129
    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    DavidL said:

    I am afraid to say Cook really should have resigned after the Sri Lanka debacle.

    The captain must justify his place in the first instance unless there are exceptional reasons to the contrary. With Cook there are none.

    A N Other opener with his recent run would be dropped. Cook needs to go back to county cricket, get some decent scores and re-establish his batting confidence. Presently and sadly he is without doubt dead weight.

    I would think he's got the next innings and the Lords test match to turn it around.

    AN Other wouldn't have been on course to break all known records for an English batsmen, and wouldn't have a chance to be the greatest test run scorer in history by the time he retires

    Even If he doesn't pass 50 this summer he should still be opening the innings in the winter
    The England Captain isn't there so he might trickle past some record.

    Cook has to justify his position as an opener - Failed
    Cook has to justify his position as Captain - Failed



    Class is permanent

    Yourself and Mike should go to a refresher course in looking past current trends
This discussion has been closed.