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Hartlepool: Labour still feels value in the Hartlepool betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    IanB2 said:

    The Real Madrid president, Florentino Pérez, said the 12 clubs announced last week as founders of the European Super League cannot abandon it due to binding contracts and promised the project would return soon.

    Pérez, whose club is one of three along with Barcelona and Juventus yet to withdraw, said it was not so simple for clubs to leave. “I don’t need to explain what a binding contract is but effectively, the clubs cannot leave,” Pérez told Spanish newspaper AS. “Some of them, due to pressure, have said they’re leaving. But this project, or one very similar, will move forward and I hope very soon.”

    Real Madrid must be in desperate trouble for him to come up with this bullshit. They could find themselves expelled from the existing structures with nowhere else to go. I trust Ferrari have been watching.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,239
    Charles said:

    Our daughter has both Hispanic and African American dolls as well as white dolls
    Not too long ago it would probably have been described as "woke" or "political correctness gone mad" to suggest that more non-white dolls be made.
  • BoJo just goes where the polls tell him to go. He doesn't actually have any beliefs or principles.

    It's why he's the ultimate election winner
  • eekeek Posts: 29,939
    Fenman said:

    Real Madrid must be in desperate trouble for him to come up with this bullshit. They could find themselves expelled from the existing structures with nowhere else to go. I trust Ferrari have been watching.
    I suspect and believe that the 3 clubs that haven't left the super league all need a rapid and very large injection of money.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,926

    But do you see my point though?

    It isn't just "the left" who are fighting tradition in the "culture war".
    Yes, but as I said, the right aren't sending kids for gender reassignment so I can live with it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,346
    The scenes in London today do absolubtely no favours whatsoever for anyone on the sensible civil liberites side of the argument against vaccine passports.

    Vaccine passports, lockdowns, vaccines themselves. All part of Bill Gates' plandemic innit.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Not too long ago it would probably have been described as "woke" or "political correctness gone mad" to suggest that more non-white dolls be made.
    I don't recall that ever being said. Are you just making that up, or have you actually had conversations with people who said that?

    My kids have always had different racial toys (Doc McStuffins was one of their first dolls).
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,239
    MaxPB said:

    Yes, but as I said, the right aren't sending kids for gender reassignment so I can live with it.
    I must admit I literally have no idea what the Labour policy is on such things but neither do I know the Conservative policy.

    I don't even know what the law is on the subject as of now.
  • MaxPB said:

    Yes, but as I said, the right aren't sending kids for gender reassignment so I can live with it.
    I wasn't aware we'd elected a Labour Government? The Tories have been in power for over a decade now, are you complaining about the last Labour Government that ended in 2010?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    BoJo just goes where the polls tell him to go. He doesn't actually have any beliefs or principles.

    It's why he's the ultimate election winner

    He's a politician.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,020

    You clearly weren't around here at the time. There were some posters who were practically nominating him for the Parent of the Year award.
    There was a time when I wasn't on.much if at all .. my mother in.law was reaching the end of her life.. the point I was making was that whatever they might have been posting, it was unlikely that they actually believed it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,417
    Pulpstar said:

    No.

    "False positives" is really the biggest red herring of the whole pandemic, the Gov't following up +ve LFTs with PCRs for schools has killed it once and for all.

    Additionally the antibodies can't be at the rate they are at without a massive number of false negatives /non tests of Covid.
    False positives, false admissions, false deaths, So much falsehood.

    The problem is people trying to fit data to theories.

    The numbers dying match up pretty well with the hospital admissions. Both are in a "long tail", slowly descending.

    As to why that is - well, a bunch of people are getting sick with COVID and dying of it.

    The data I would like to see, is the vaccination status of those admitted and dying of COVID. This would tell us how much the reduced rates are due to vaccination and how much due to lockdown. All we can say, otherwise - both have an effect.

    The dashboard folk have told me that they haven't been given that data. So there we are rather stuck.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,480
    edited April 2021

    BoJo just goes where the polls tell him to go. He doesn't actually have any beliefs or principles.

    It's why he's the ultimate election winner

    His problem is going to come when different bits of his coalition pull him in different directions, and he can't fudge it any more.

    It hasn't quite happened yet, but it's been close and it will happen.

    At some point in the next decade. I just don't know when.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Vaccine appointment finally arrived this morning. I got first, husband second. Thought I might be Moderna'd after all the recent developments but have actually had AZ. No ill effects ten hours later, so cautiously optimistic that I've escaped the side effects.

    May 17th is only just over three weeks away, so we are now treating that as freedom day. Day trips out of town and starting back at the gym will resume from then. We're also starting to think about parental visits and a holiday (in England) later in the year.

    Weather today best so far this year, went out to lunch with friends we've not seen for a long time, out again for Sunday roast tomorrow. I still won't believe that social distancing and evil masks are buried until it happens, but that aside it feels like this bloody torment is, finally, almost at an end.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    This is total horsesh*t man. There's no "British tradition" of not kneeling down.
    Actually there is a proud tradition of kneeling to no one. That’s why we nod to a King not bow at the waist, Obama-style.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    BoJo just goes where the polls tell him to go. He doesn't actually have any beliefs or principles.

    It's why he's the ultimate election winner

    Well he's only beaten Livingstone and Corbyn - both totally discredited figures.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,239

    I don't recall that ever being said. Are you just making that up, or have you actually had conversations with people who said that?

    My kids have always had different racial toys (Doc McStuffins was one of their first dolls).
    "Doc McStuffins" was literally lauded because it portrayed a non-white main character in a mainstream cartoon.
  • False positives, false admissions, false deaths, So much falsehood.

    The problem is people trying to fit data to theories.

    The numbers dying match up pretty well with the hospital admissions. Both are in a "long tail", slowly descending.

    As to why that is - well, a bunch of people are getting sick with COVID and dying of it.

    The data I would like to see, is the vaccination status of those admitted and dying of COVID. This would tell us how much the reduced rates are due to vaccination and how much due to lockdown. All we can say, otherwise - both have an effect.

    The dashboard folk have told me that they haven't been given that data. So there we are rather stuck.
    If, in the fullness of time, it comes out that SAGE were somehow not looking at this, it would be incredibly remiss of them. It may be that the government doesn't want to share it with the public.

    --AS
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,239
    Charles said:

    Actually there is a proud tradition of kneeling to no one. That’s why we nod to a King not bow at the waist, Obama-style.
    Trust you to know that Charles
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,239

    Well he's only beaten Livingstone and Corbyn - both totally discredited figures.
    I hope you enjoyed your holiday to Northumberland OGH. Speak to any red-wallers?
  • https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1386025460920946689

    And they just don't care, how terribly sad that is for all of us.

    Tory lead up.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,417

    We do seem to be at herd immunity for current levels of mixing. R is only a little below 1, so perhaps not quite there yet for unrestricted mixing, but not too far off.

    Although I tend to be cautious, I actually do think that the government could bring the 17th May ahead by a week, if data is still good in a week's time. Their 5-week interval was, for reasons that I found quite convincing, based on the time needed to detect a rise in hospitalization. But a rise in hospitalization is extremely unlikely unless there is first a rise in cases, and we aren't seeing that. Hence I think they could safely advance a week (and by another week for the 21st June date if cases still drop).

    I imagine that they were expecting to see cases flatline or slightly rise, but hospitalizations keep dropping, in which case they would need the full amount of time to get evidence for that. It's good news that they have been surprised on the upside.

    --AS

    Given that R is quite stable - based on the hospital admissions -

    image

    I can see why remaining with the plan is attractive. Among other things, by May 17th, the numbers *fully vaccinated* will be interesting....
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,239

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1386025460920946689

    And they just don't care, how terribly sad that is for all of us.

    Tory lead up.

    At least we know the Tory vote-share ceiling is 63%.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,926
    Charles said:

    Actually there is a proud tradition of kneeling to no one. That’s why we nod to a King not bow at the waist, Obama-style.
    I've knelt on one knee once in recent memory, to my wife when I proposed to her, we don't "take a knee" like the US does.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    "Doc McStuffins" was literally lauded because it portrayed a non-white main character in a mainstream cartoon.
    Non-white human character.

    From the 80s girls cartoons like Care Bears, Gummy Bears and My Little Pony all had non-white characters. 😉
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Not too long ago it would probably have been described as "woke" or "political correctness gone mad" to suggest that more non-white dolls be made.
    And it still would be woke / PCGM

    More non-white dolls should be made if there is commercial demand. And, if not, then they shouldn’t.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,195
    Pulpstar said:

    The scenes in London today do absolubtely no favours whatsoever for anyone on the sensible civil liberites side of the argument against vaccine passports.

    Vaccine passports, lockdowns, vaccines themselves. All part of Bill Gates' plandemic innit.

    The silly protest aside, the scenes up and down the country today do actually show up the vax passports scheme for all it is; utterly unnecessary. Beer gardens are packed. Shops are busy. Vax centres are packed. There is no need to deprive anyone of their civil liberties or force biz to adopt silly rules, because vaccine take up is tremendous and we're beating this blasted virus.
  • So voters think the Tories are corrupt, BoJo is corrupt - and they think Labour and Keir Starmer are not corrupt.

    And yet the Tories continue to lead.

    Ergo, the voters don't give a toss. Depressing.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,908

    Public Health England were advising the government on whether to close the border? Why?
    That’s a question best aimed at them
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1386025460920946689

    And they just don't care, how terribly sad that is for all of us.

    Tory lead up.

    So 63% don't think that? Good.

    The 37% saying he is are probably Labour/SNP and other partisans.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,239
    MaxPB said:

    I've knelt on one knee once in recent memory, to my wife when I proposed to her, we don't "take a knee" like the US does.
    I don't think they "take the knee" in the US either so I'm not sure what your point is.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I don't recall that ever being said. Are you just making that up, or have you actually had conversations with people who said that?

    My kids have always had different racial toys (Doc McStuffins was one of their first dolls).
    Shame on them for choosing a human girl over a pink hippo!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,926

    I don't think they "take the knee" in the US either so I'm not sure what your point is.
    They do actually, it comes from NFL.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,643
    "Germany contained Covid-19. Politics brought it back.
    Germany was returning to normal last summer. Then Covid-19 surged.

    By German Lopez@germanrlopezgerman.lopez@vox.com Apr 21, 2021, 7:00am EDT"

    https://www.vox.com/22352348/germany-covid-19-coronavirus-pandemic
  • Some 37% of voters describe Johnson as mostly or completely corrupt, compared with 31% who say he is clean and honest. Even more – 38% – say the Conservative party as a whole is corrupt with just 31% saying it is clean and honest.

    So no, it's not that most people think BoJo isn't corrupt, I am sure the Tories will explain these numbers away
  • In the wake of revelations that David Cameron lobbied the chancellor on behalf of Greensill Capital for Covid-related public funds, some 76% of people said it was unacceptable for a former prime minister to use his contacts to help a company he works for get favours from the current government.

    In relation to claims that the billionaire businessman James Dyson and Johnson exchanged texts about tax arrangements for Dyson’s staff involved in the supply of ventilators, some 70% of people said it was unacceptable for the CEO of a large, well-known business to send a text to the prime minister to persuade him to maintain or introduce favourable tax arrangements for his company.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,417
    Taz said:

    That’s a question best aimed at them
    The question of whether closing the border would make a difference was asked.

    And it seems clear from what we have heard, that the various experts said that closing the borders wasn't medically effective.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Some 37% of voters describe Johnson as mostly or completely corrupt, compared with 31% who say he is clean and honest. Even more – 38% – say the Conservative party as a whole is corrupt with just 31% saying it is clean and honest.

    So no, it's not that most people think BoJo isn't corrupt, I am sure the Tories will explain these numbers away

    Yeah these are opposition partisans.

    What is there to explain? There are always opposition partisans willing to attack their opponents.

    Unless you think the Tories make up 63% of people, the more non-partisan response is the public do not think it.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,239
    MaxPB said:

    They do actually, it comes from NFL.
    Yeah — it comes from the NFL as part of an anti-racism protest during the national anthem. It isn't some longstanding tradition.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,908

    BoJo just goes where the polls tell him to go. He doesn't actually have any beliefs or principles.

    It's why he's the ultimate election winner

    Worked for Blair. Suspect you’re pissed about it as he’s not your man.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Well he's only beaten Livingstone and Corbyn - both totally discredited figures.
    Rewriting history there Mike.

    Might want to check your notes on betting against Livingstone. Livingstone was polling in the lead and the heavy odds on favourite at the start of 2008.

    Livingstone was discredited by losing to Boris. Boris made him discredited.
  • Taz said:

    Worked for Blair. Suspect you’re pissed about it as he’s not your man.
    I voted for Blair twice.

    Blair is very much my man, he's Labour and he won three elections, we should listen to him.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Trust you to know that Charles
    Although Oscar Wilde said “love is a sacrament that should be taken kneeling”

    I wonder what he was referring to?
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,908

    I hope you enjoyed your holiday to Northumberland OGH. Speak to any red-wallers?
    He was desperately trying to find the last remaining Lib Dem’s in Berwick upon Tweed. Amazed to think the seat went from a man like Alan Beith, who I have always thought was a good guy to a right wing Tory brexiteer
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,149

    I'm not sure why you need this explaining. He was supporting the wave of protests that follows George Floyd's death, sharing a common message — that black lives matter. Plenty of British people did.
    He was pretending he gave a crap, typical politician as they will jump on any bandwagon that they hope gets them some kudos. He is an absolute tit.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,926

    Yeah — it comes from the NFL as part of an anti-racism protest during the national anthem. It isn't some longstanding tradition.
    No, during the game players can take a knee as a tactic in the game. It's something most Americans know about.
  • Yeah these are opposition partisans.

    What is there to explain? There are always opposition partisans willing to attack their opponents.

    Unless you think the Tories make up 63% of people, the more non-partisan response is the public do not think it.
    That's...not how numbers work.

    This is embarrassing.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MaxPB said:

    I've knelt on one knee once in recent memory, to my wife when I proposed to her, we don't "take a knee" like the US does.
    I genuflect, but apart from that and proposing to my wife, I’ve never knelt to anyone.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,667

    I wasn't aware we'd elected a Labour Government? The Tories have been in power for over a decade now, are you complaining about the last Labour Government that ended in 2010?
    In 2010 Brown was still claiming his boom and bust was better than a ‘Tory’ boom and bust (and lying about having said he’d abolished boom and bust).

    In 1997 the Tories were claiming a Labour government would mean a return to the Winter of Discontent.

    In 1959 Macmillan campaigned on Labour having failed to get rid of rationing by 1951.

    In 1951 Bevan was still using the threat of high unemployment in 1932 as a reason not to vote Tory.

    So I am afraid you are being a bit optimistic in expecting politicians to own up for their own shite record.

    (A particularly egregious example was David Mellor, who in 1993 said he thought, Black Wednesday notwithstanding, that the Tories’ record compared favourably to that of the Asquith government. Which was true, but somewhat irrelevant.)
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,239
    MaxPB said:

    No, during the game players can take a knee as a tactic in the game. It's something most Americans know about.
    I feel like you're reaching here.

    The fact is "taking the knee" is just as much a symbol of submission in the US as it is in the UK.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,908

    I voted for Blair twice.

    Blair is very much my man, he's Labour and he won three elections, we should listen to him.
    I voted for his party too. My mistake. Blair lied, millions died.

    Anyway you are responsive to a point I wasn’t making.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    That's...not how numbers work.

    This is embarrassing.
    Yes it is.

    100% - 37% = 63%
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,667

    The question of whether closing the border would make a difference was asked.

    And it seems clear from what we have heard, that the various experts said that closing the borders wasn't medically effective.
    Vietnam demonstrated that they were wrong.

    If they were so spectacularly wrong on such an easy point, how can we trust their judgement on anything?
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited April 2021

    Yes it is.

    100% - 37% = 63%
    You can't conclude 63% think Boris Johnson isn't corrupt. 63% includes a whole load of don't knows, you can't just put that into your column because you feel like it.

    More people think BoJo is corrupt than don't, end of story.

    I knew the usual suspects would find a way to explain this away, not actually address the point.

    Now I must go, I am off out for dinner.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited April 2021

    You can't conclude 63% think Boris Johnson isn't corrupt. 63% includes a whole load of don't knows, you can't just put that into your column because you feel like it.

    More people think BoJo is corrupt than don't, end of story.
    Innocent until proven guilty.

    If 37% think he's corrupt then 63% don't think he is. Don't know belongs to don't.

    EDIT: And it looks like that Tweet has now been deleted too. So you've not only gotten the wrong end of the stick but possibly gone running off dodgy data.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,417
    ydoethur said:

    Vietnam demonstrated that they were wrong.

    If they were so spectacularly wrong on such an easy point, how can we trust their judgement on anything?
    Have we heard enough from experts then? :-) Sorry....

    The answer is, I don't know. I don't have enough knowledge to say whether closing the borders would have made a difference.

    Given that Vietnam's experience with COVID - low cases, hospitalisations and deaths - has been replicated in countries that didn't close borders... it just tells me that I don't know.

    The more I look at the data on COVID, the more inconsistent much of it is - low effects in some countries and then followed by disaster, more recently. There are effects here that I don't understand. Which is what makes it interesting...
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,020

    So 63% don't think that? Good.

    The 37% saying he is are probably Labour/SNP and other partisans.
    The link says tweet not available... details svp
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,417

    If, in the fullness of time, it comes out that SAGE were somehow not looking at this, it would be incredibly remiss of them. It may be that the government doesn't want to share it with the public.

    --AS
    We know that it is being looked at - the Edinburgh study for example.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,926

    Have we heard enough from experts then? :-) Sorry....

    The answer is, I don't know. I don't have enough knowledge to say whether closing the borders would have made a difference.

    Given that Vietnam's experience with COVID - low cases, hospitalisations and deaths - has been replicated in countries that didn't close borders... it just tells me that I don't know.

    The more I look at the data on COVID, the more inconsistent much of it is - low effects in some countries and then followed by disaster, more recently. There are effects here that I don't understand. Which is what makes it interesting...
    I think we have to take official numbers for some countries with a huge sack of salt though. I can't imagine the situation in Iran is any different to India right now but we just won't hear about it.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,020

    I voted for Blair twice.

    Blair is very much my man, he's Labour and he won three elections, we should listen to him.
    Yup Blair knows how to reduce the world population .. especially in Iraq and Afghanistan.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,063
    Charles said:

    Although Oscar Wilde said “love is a sacrament that should be taken kneeling”

    I wonder what he was referring to?
    CofE practice ?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    The link says tweet not available... details svp
    The Tweet simply said that 37% think Boris is corrupt. But since it's now been deleted it probably isn't something to be repeating.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,417
    MaxPB said:

    I think we have to take official numbers for some countries with a huge sack of salt though. I can't imagine the situation in Iran is any different to India right now but we just won't hear about it.
    Oh sure on the countries stupid enough to lie about it.

    But even when you exclude them, what about the massive variations in admissions/death ratios? The ebbs and flows of cases? There is so much here that we don't know. Lots of science to be done.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,487

    Rewriting history there Mike.

    Might want to check your notes on betting against Livingstone. Livingstone was polling in the lead and the heavy odds on favourite at the start of 2008.

    Livingstone was discredited by losing to Boris. Boris made him discredited.
    Not quite, Philip.

    YouGov had Boris Johnson ahead of Ken Livingstone consistently from February 2008. Some other pollsters offered different outcomes but YouGov had it nailed from some way out.

    The 5-way polling and direct Boris vs Ken polling showed Johnson ahead for much of the time.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,020

    The Tweet simply said that 37% think Boris is corrupt. But since it's now been deleted it probably isn't something to be repeating.
    Has it asked how corrupt a whole range of people are for comparison purposes. If not its meaningless. Especially if eg 73 % were to think SKS or Ms Sturgeon were corrupt ..... Boris by comparison would be a Saint.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,926
    stodge said:

    Not quite, Philip.

    YouGov had Boris Johnson ahead of Ken Livingstone consistently from February 2008. Some other pollsters offered different outcomes but YouGov had it nailed from some way out.

    The 5-way polling and direct Boris vs Ken polling showed Johnson ahead for much of the time.
    Punb chat from last night - the Tories should have run Rory. Everyone around the table would have voted for him but none want to vote for Bailey. I got most of them on board for the Lib Dem, everyone just assumes Sadiq has his wrapped up but I don't know anyone voting for him. Obviously he has it wrapped up and the issue is that I just don't speak to any Sadiq voters as we probably don't have a lot of crossover. It does mean there is a market in 2024/5 for a not-Sadiq candidate, especially with brexit in the rear view mirror.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,667
    edited April 2021

    Have we heard enough from experts then? :-) Sorry....

    The answer is, I don't know. I don't have enough knowledge to say whether closing the borders would have made a difference.

    Given that Vietnam's experience with COVID - low cases, hospitalisations and deaths - has been replicated in countries that didn't close borders... it just tells me that I don't know.

    The more I look at the data on COVID, the more inconsistent much of it is - low effects in some countries and then followed by disaster, more recently. There are effects here that I don't understand. Which is what makes it interesting...
    I’m getting more and more concerned that some experts are riding personal hobby horses regardless of facts. For example, masks in schools. There was due to be a report on the effect of this in Scotland. So far as I know it has never been published. Given Scotland had been using them for months up to December, there should be meaningful data there. So why has it not been published? Well, a quick glance at the figures suggests it makes precisely fuck all difference. After all, first of all, children don’t keep them on for hours at a time (leaving aside the minor detail they have to take them off to eat, they play with them and fidget with them and drop them everywhere) but secondly, all the evidence so far is that masks stop transmission in low-contact situations, e.g. passing in the street, not if you’re breathing the same air in the same room for hours.

    So why do we still have masks in schools? Because a few medics like feeling powerful and a few disgraced politicians like Williamson, Gibb and Swinney indulge them because the unions, with equal folly, believe that it will make everyone safer and have unfortunately conned too many of their members into thinking that. Never mind how uncomfortable they are for children, or how difficult it makes my life as a deaf teacher, or how ineffectual they are. Heck, it’s actually illegal to make masks mandatory for those reasons, which is why they’ve made it an ‘advisory’ and forced schools to police it with tight guidelines.

    Such people are scum, not experts. Their opinions should be treated with contempt.

    And no, contrarian has not hacked my account and he’s still a lying, selfish twat.

    Edit - and the point about Vietnam is that their quarantine is the only rational explanation for the disease not having run riot, given their climate, dwelling accommodation and proximity to China.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,063
    Dom Bess took five of the six wickets to fall today in Sussex’s second innings.
    First step on his road to England rehabilitation ?

    Also Hameed made his first century since 2019....
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,184

    We do seem to be at herd immunity for current levels of mixing. R is only a little below 1, so perhaps not quite there yet for unrestricted mixing, but not too far off.

    Although I tend to be cautious, I actually do think that the government could bring the 17th May ahead by a week, if data is still good in a week's time. Their 5-week interval was, for reasons that I found quite convincing, based on the time needed to detect a rise in hospitalization. But a rise in hospitalization is extremely unlikely unless there is first a rise in cases, and we aren't seeing that. Hence I think they could safely advance a week (and by another week for the 21st June date if cases still drop).

    I imagine that they were expecting to see cases flatline or slightly rise, but hospitalizations keep dropping, in which case they would need the full amount of time to get evidence for that. It's good news that they have been surprised on the upside.

    --AS
    One thing about the 17th May loosening is that it wouldn't change much. Every weekend since Easter my neighbours have had large groups around in their pub-in-a-shed. I doubt they are alone. There's a lot more indoor mixing, singing and socialising happening then you would think if you looked at the official restrictions - and we're not seeing a rise in cases.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,956
    Taz said:

    Yet all the govt did was follow the advice of Public Health England, the CMO and World Health Organisation. So attack on the govt simply attacks these. They have an easy rebuttal.
    The WHO recommended that Johnson get Tory donors to pay for a home makeover? Missed that, I must say.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    So voters think the Tories are corrupt, BoJo is corrupt - and they think Labour and Keir Starmer are not corrupt.

    And yet the Tories continue to lead.

    Ergo, the voters don't give a toss. Depressing.

    Or illustrating how unpopular Labour are with a large chunk of the electorate. I think that is the key factor at the moment.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    stodge said:

    Not quite, Philip.

    YouGov had Boris Johnson ahead of Ken Livingstone consistently from February 2008. Some other pollsters offered different outcomes but YouGov had it nailed from some way out.

    The 5-way polling and direct Boris vs Ken polling showed Johnson ahead for much of the time.
    Last time I checked the start of 2008 was January. January 2008 YouGov had Livingstone 4 points in the lead.

    Livingstone was also in the lead November and December 2007 with YouGov.

    So it's really not reasonable to suggest Livingstone was discredited in 2008 when Boris was behind him originally in the polls. Maybe Livingstone was discredited by February or once Boris was done with him, but that's a different matter.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,667
    kinabalu said:

    The WHO recommended that Johnson get Tory donors to pay for a home makeover? Missed that, I must say.
    It was all a misunderstanding. Johnson asked ‘who paid’ and Sunak thought it was a statement not a question.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,908

    The question of whether closing the border would make a difference was asked.

    And it seems clear from what we have heard, that the various experts said that closing the borders wasn't medically effective.
    Exactly. The govt has made plenty of errors for sure but in this case they followed the advice, as they did with releasing people back into care homes (PHE) yet none of the bodies that gave the advice is held to account. Merely treated with deference,
  • Innocent until proven guilty.

    If 37% think he's corrupt then 63% don't think he is. Don't know belongs to don't.

    EDIT: And it looks like that Tweet has now been deleted too. So you've not only gotten the wrong end of the stick but possibly gone running off dodgy data.
    I do not know the details of this tweet but I would comment as follows

    The lobbying scandal rotates around David Cameron and civil servants

    On the Dyson tax issue he requested that his staff working in the UK beyond 90 days were not penalised and exceptions were granted due to the crisis to all the contractors who were in a similar position Did the polling explain this detail properly

    The attack by Cummings on Boris is coming from a source who has trashed his own reputation and integrity

    And details of Boris being a chancer, unreliable, dishonest and having a chaotic private life are already accepted and he has a unique ability to attract the red wall voters by being himself, not pretending he loves the flag or is patriotic, as that is in his dna and he has succeeded with the vaccine rollout, opening up the economy, slaying the ESL, and being someone lotd of people would enjoy a pint with

    This contradiction causes his opponents to cry in despair with no real way of genuinely responding, other than to cry foul while Boris just continues on his way

    It would be foolish to underestimate the teflon nature of Boris, but someday he will be removed, but that looks quite sometime away
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,338
    🚨 🚨

    “There are rumours he (Cummings) has audio recordings.”

    via the all-seeing @ShippersUnbound

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/war-with-dominic-cummings-leaves-johnson-on-a-political-tightrope-j58clkdxj
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    Well he's only beaten Livingstone and Corbyn - both totally discredited figures.
    What about beating the immensely, er, credible Sir Keir? Does that count?

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 44% (-1)
    LAB: 33% (-3)
    LDEM: 7% (+1)
    GRN: 5% (+1)

    via
    @OpiniumResearch
    , 21 - 23 Apr
    Chgs. w/ 09 Apr

    Turning it up to 11...
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,956

    One thing about the 17th May loosening is that it wouldn't change much. Every weekend since Easter my neighbours have had large groups around in their pub-in-a-shed. I doubt they are alone. There's a lot more indoor mixing, singing and socialising happening then you would think if you looked at the official restrictions - and we're not seeing a rise in cases.
    This is why Yougov polls of people supporting restrictions or not are a complete waste of time.

    At each stage people make their own judgements of what is possible and/or risky or not, and then decide on what restrictions they think everyone else ought to live under.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,926

    One thing about the 17th May loosening is that it wouldn't change much. Every weekend since Easter my neighbours have had large groups around in their pub-in-a-shed. I doubt they are alone. There's a lot more indoor mixing, singing and socialising happening then you would think if you looked at the official restrictions - and we're not seeing a rise in cases.
    Indeed, and by May 17th we're going to be up to 22m people with second doses and around 37m with one dose to a minimum efficacy level. Plus younger people with prior infection it is highly unlikely that we won'thave reached herd immunity.
  • Scott_xP said:

    🚨 🚨

    “There are rumours he (Cummings) has audio recordings.”

    via the all-seeing @ShippersUnbound

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/war-with-dominic-cummings-leaves-johnson-on-a-political-tightrope-j58clkdxj

    Check opinium tonight

    All this is true but he has an 11% lead and is popular irrespective of all the allegations which seem to be baked in to public attitudes
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    What about beating the immensely, er, credible Sir Keir? Does that count?

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 44% (-1)
    LAB: 33% (-3)
    LDEM: 7% (+1)
    GRN: 5% (+1)

    via
    @OpiniumResearch
    , 21 - 23 Apr
    Chgs. w/ 09 Apr

    Turning it up to 11...

    As Mike implies Starmer has gone from looking competent at first to being, well a bit rubbish. I honestly think Labour would be closer in the polls under Corbyn right now.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,667
    Nigelb said:

    Dom Bess took five of the six wickets to fall today in Sussex’s second innings.
    First step on his road to England rehabilitation ?

    Also Hameed made his first century since 2019....

    And Glaws fell agonisingly exactly 1 short of making Hampshire bat again.

    Hants already looking for my money favourites for the title. They’ve always had the bowling, but this year the batting is just beyond belief. Every time they go to the crease they seem to rattle off 450.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,239

    Check opinium tonight

    All this is true but he has an 11% lead and is popular irrespective of all the allegations which seem to be baked in to public attitudes
    Doesn't mean they're not worth talking about though.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,417
    Taz said:

    Exactly. The govt has made plenty of errors for sure but in this case they followed the advice, as they did with releasing people back into care homes (PHE) yet none of the bodies that gave the advice is held to account. Merely treated with deference,
    Last year, I posted here about the following - civil servants were appalled to discover that ministers would refuse to accept responsibility at an eventual COVID enquiry for actions by permanent officials that *went against* Ministerial decisions.

    That is, civil servants were appalled that in the case

    - Minster say "do A"
    - Civil servant does "B" - without informing the minister first
    - Minster says that he will name the civil servant who did "B" and deny responsibility for his/her actions.

    Apparently this is a shocking breach of responsibility.

    There is a long tradition of this kind of comedy. Before the Falklands war, an MI6 officer in Argentina tried to raise an alarm about certain preparations he saw. The mandarins in the Foreign Office demanded that his reports he suppressed and he be disciplined - for upsetting *their* policies....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    What about beating the immensely, er, credible Sir Keir? Does that count?

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 44% (-1)
    LAB: 33% (-3)
    LDEM: 7% (+1)
    GRN: 5% (+1)

    via
    @OpiniumResearch
    , 21 - 23 Apr
    Chgs. w/ 09 Apr

    Turning it up to 11...
    Come 2027 people will be saying he's only beaten the totally discredited Livingstone, Corbyn, Cameron, May, Starmer, Swinson and Davey.

    Almost as if he is able to discredit people in comparison.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,487
    edited April 2021
    MaxPB said:


    Punb chat from last night - the Tories should have run Rory. Everyone around the table would have voted for him but none want to vote for Bailey. I got most of them on board for the Lib Dem, everyone just assumes Sadiq has his wrapped up but I don't know anyone voting for him. Obviously he has it wrapped up and the issue is that I just don't speak to any Sadiq voters as we probably don't have a lot of crossover. It does mean there is a market in 2024/5 for a not-Sadiq candidate, especially with brexit in the rear view mirror.

    FWIW, and I don't move in your pub circles, I'd have probably given Rory my second preference vote. As it is, I'm disinclined to exercise my second vote again. I have no confidence in either Sadiq Khan or Shaun Bailey.

    Labour have been out canvassing in East Ham Central for a by-election. As they are defending a seat they won with 86% of the vote, I can't see they've much to worry about. The Governance Referendum in Newham is much more interesting - I'm happy to see Councillor Fiaz's Mayoral powers cut back but concerned this is a front for a pro-Momentum take over of Newham Council and the election of a very radical Cabinet.

    We have no Opposition - the 35% who didn't vote Labour in 2018 (whether Conservative, LD, Green or whatever) have no representation at all. It's an internal Labour factional issue into which we have all been dragged.

    If you want to know why I support PR, that's why and I would say exactly the same if it were an LD council with 100% of the seats on 65% of the vote (or indeed a Conservative one).

    I find the argument for PR at local elections overwhelming - it wouldn't stop Labour having a majority in Newham but there would be a group of 18 Opposition councillors who would at least ensure other voices are heard,

    As an aside, the latest London Mayoral poll as follows:

    Khan (LAB-S&D): 47% (-3)
    Bailey (CON-ECR): 26% (+1)
    Porritt (LDEM-RE): 9% (+1)
    Berry (GPEW-G/EFA): 6%

    Of the others, Mandu Reid of the Women's Equality Party has 4% which means, if I have this right, the remaining candidates fighting over 8% of the vote - like so many bald individuals over a comb.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,667
    I have actually had a leaflet today.

    From the Tories.

    Pack of lies.

    In line with my newfound Green credentials, I composted it.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,795
    In the Canadian canoe discipline, competitors take a knee as they paddle.

    In curling, competitors take a knee as they send their stone.

    Do you also have to take a knee in some categories of shooting?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,935
    Taz said:

    That’s a question best aimed at them
    Who else should be advising them.

    Russell Grant?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,994

    But do you see my point though?

    It isn't just "the left" who are fighting tradition in the "culture war".
    As the war passes out of living memory, the commemoration is naturally going to change - get a bit wonkier, people putting their own spin on it. It will eventually be the same as Guy Fawkes night.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,722
    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 🚨

    “There are rumours he (Cummings) has audio recordings.”

    via the all-seeing @ShippersUnbound

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/war-with-dominic-cummings-leaves-johnson-on-a-political-tightrope-j58clkdxj

    The man is certainly proving why he should never assist or advise any person in authority - he won't play ball once he is gone.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,154
    edited April 2021

    Doesn't mean they're not worth talking about though.
    Of course not and Boris seems to be defying gravity and maybe his opponents should look more at themselves, and ask why they are not breaking through

    In any normal cycle and with a pandemic, all oppositions, not least Labour, should be making hay and they are not

    I have expressed my views over the last few days and to be honest I don't have an answer on how Labour square the metropolitan elite with the red wall voters
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,239
    edited April 2021

    As the war passes out of living memory, the commemoration is naturally going to change - get a bit wonkier, people putting their own spin on it. It will eventually be the same as Guy Fawkes night.
    You'd think we'd be remembering those who died in Iraq and Afghanistan and heroes like Lee Rigby.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,935
    Nigelb said:

    CofE practice ?
    Probably more Hollywood mid-century.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Yup Blair knows how to reduce the world population .. especially in Iraq and Afghanistan.
    But but but - he was made Middle East peace envoy.............
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,184
    Nigelb said:

    Dom Bess took five of the six wickets to fall today in Sussex’s second innings.
    First step on his road to England rehabilitation ?

    Also Hameed made his first century since 2019....

    A lot of spinners have had a good start to the season - Harmer, Crane, Parkinson, Leach, Critchley. Not the green seaming wickets everyone expects with such an early start, but it's been very dry, which must be having an effect.

    There's a few other English openers who are doing well - Libby has caught a few people's notice, and Lyth and Robson again - just in this case not including the players most recently who have opened for the Test team.

    Having all the matches available to watch through the ECB website has been amazing.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,667
    kle4 said:

    The man is certainly proving why he should never assist or advise any person in authority - he won't play ball once he is gone.
    He didn’t when he was there, either. No change.

    (I would say the only thing Cummings plays with effectively and on a regular basis is his Johnson.)
This discussion has been closed.