politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Nighthawks is now open

Have to say this is an excellent response from Brazil. But if they get caught with another break away goal I think their heads will go down.

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 5s

YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead jumps four points to seven: CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%

So may be there is something real going on - that's 3 now in that zone.

But what?

It is curious isn't it - it's worth recalling that last week was the Conservatives' best week with YouGov for 6 weeks - average Lab lead just 2.4% over the 5 polls (week up to and including the Sunday Times YouGov).

Then within just 2 days we have 3 polls with a Lab lead of 7% (albeit plus a YouGov with a lead of 3%).

I haven't seen anyone suggest this but could Coulson actually going to prison be a factor?

EDIT: Hadn't seen the other posts within the previous few mins when I wrote that!

Socrates said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Socrates said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

@TSE

Re the Enoch comment, I think he only meant it in the same way that it would seem, at the moment, very strange to think of a white man as Pakistani.. maybe in 50 years time if there is mass immigration to Pakistan from Northern Europe it will seem racist in hindsight, but at the moment, if a Pakistani said it, I wouldn't feel like he was having a go at me

I'll dig out the full quote, but Enoch was a racist, and wrong on that, and many other things.

He was talking about the principle, which is what is currently espoused by Nick Griffin "If I were born in a barn, that doesn't make me a horse"

Indeed. It's not like there weren't non-whites who already had British passports and identified with this country in the 1960s.

There was a piece by Peter Oborne a few years ago, to tie in with his book on the D'Oliveria affair, said that it was the timing of the D'Oliveria affair is what damaged Enoch more than anything else.

Who would have thought that a Cape Coloured help changed the world, and this country, so much.

I think even without D'Oliveria acceptance would have happened. Britishness is not something that exists at a genetic level. It is something that is held in our minds. It's a set of common customs, dispositions and allegiances that unites us. You can have that whether your descent is from the Jutes, the Normans, the Igbo or the Sindhis.

I agree it would have happened without D'Oliveria, but D'Oliveria brought it forward quicker than it would have happened.

SeanT said:

I have no idea why the polls are all over the shop.

And what's even better is that I DON'T GIVE A TROPOSPHERICAL F*CK

Love. Love is all you need.

LOVE.

LURRRRRRRVE.

I hereby announce my retirement from pb until I have come a less sentimental, oversexed old fool

You should pen something for the telegraph on this, the comments would be worth reading ;-)

Socrates Indeed, but Cameron has basically said that. Conference season etc may help to reinforce the message. There remains no real enthusiasm for Labour though, they average 35% with Anthony Wells, less than Cameron got last time, and if Miliband gets in it will be with the weakest mandate since the war, and he will soon make Hollande look popular. No wonder one unnamed Labour Shadow Minister told the Sunday Times last week that the only thing worse than a Labour defeat would be a Miliband victory, it could lead to a government so awful Labour would be out for a generation!

The joy of Sechs for Germany

Eins, zwei, drei,   
Eins, zwei, drei,   
Vier, fünf, sechs,  
Vier, fünf, sechs,  
..................  
..................  
Sieben, acht, neun, 
Sieben, acht, neun, 
Zehn, elf, zwölf,   
Zehn, elf, zwölf.   

6-0 now???? WTF

@bigjohnowls
Perhaps they are inadvertently starting to annoy people?

"Fury over Michael Gove's 'hypocritical' £5m architect contract "
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/fury-over-michael-goves-hypocritical-5m-architect-contract-9593091.html

Dan Hodges effect? DH wrong 100% of the time

Riots in 20 minutes.

This is possibly the most one sided contest involving Germans since 9AD....

Socrates said:

HYUFD said:

On the polls they are jumping around all over the place at the moment, the Tories have probably been hit more than Labour by the sex abuse cover up allegations and by Coulson's jailing, but the fundamentals remain, the Tories need to squeeze the UKIP vote back well below 10% towards 5% or they will lose, until that happens everything else is irrelevant. Cameron got a small boost from Juncker towards that goal, which has now receded, he has to keep focus on that aim

Cameron has got huge boosts every time he's stood up for the UK against the EU centralising power. UKIP do better whenever the EU is in the news. The Lb Dem vote collapsed when they tried to be "the party of in". Huge shares of the country want major powers, including control of immigration, back in national hands. When are the political establishment going to realise that euroscepticism is politically popular?

If the Conservatives came out and said, "We want A, B and C back from the EU or else we'll leave" they would win the next election. If they refuse to do that in order to stick up for a corrupt, undemocratic institution that has nothing but contempt for us, and let Ed Miliband in as a result, it will be sheer political malpractice.

They get little bounces when they pick fights but they only last a week.

As for saying what his red lines are, I'm not convinced the voters would follow it. A lot of them probably think he's already done it, and the sceptics who follow this thing closely are unlikely to be satisfied with whatever it is he wants.

I'd certainly like to see him say something coherent, but it wouldn't win him the election.

Smarmeron said:

@bigjohnowls
Perhaps they are inadvertently starting to annoy people?

"Fury over Michael Gove's 'hypocritical' £5m architect contract "
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/fury-over-michael-goves-hypocritical-5m-architect-contract-9593091.html

That article includes the best abuse of statistics I have ever seen:

Each worker will have around 11.25m² of workspace which compares to around 6m² per pupil in a typical new school.

Do they think, possibly, just possibly, having all the civil servants sitting in a single room at rows of desks might not be the most efficient way to run a department?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ok, my theory on why the polls are widening.

Tories know if they take a lead in the polls, that doesn't help Better Together in the North Britain plebiscite.

The Tories are Unionists (it's in the party name), so we're taking one for the Union between now and September the 19th.

For me it has to be the paedophile stuff. The public is disgusted and the government is getting the blame. I can't think of anything else strong enough for this.

Eins, zwei, drei,   
Eins, zwei, drei,   
Vier, fünf, sechs,  
Vier, fünf, sechs,  
Sieben,............ 
Sieben,............ 
........acht, neun, 
........acht, neun, 
Zehn, elf, zwölf,   
Zehn, elf, zwölf.   

Brazil 0 - Germany 7 (seven, sieben)

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ok, my theory on why the polls are widening.

Tories know if they take a lead in the polls, that doesn't help Better Together in the North Britain plebiscite.

The Tories are Unionists (it's in the party name), so we're taking one for the Union between now and September the 19th.

An amazing ability to manipulate their own public poll rating, that. A shame for them it only extends to creating a larger Labour lead, and not extending their own poll rating beyond the low 30s, when the time comes.

If a pollster asked me how I'd vote, I'd say Labour, to keep the Union together.

Charles said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 5s

YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead jumps four points to seven: CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%

So may be there is something real going on - that's 3 now in that zone.

But what?

Unwind from the Juncker stuff, and I'm going to say the paedophile story and headlines aren't helping the government.

You may be right, and the government may have scored another own goal in choosing Elizabeth Butler-Sloss to head the enquiry, given her brother was Attorney General at the time of some of these events.

Only in the tin foil community. Butler-Sloss was head (I think) of the Family Bench and simply the best and most experienced judge that the country has in these matters. Michael Havers died 25 years ago (appointing him Lord Chancellor knowing he had terminal cancer was a great kindness that Thatcher did him). There is no conflict, and Butler-Sloss is far too good and experienced a judge to allow it to colour her judgement.

But I've always had a soft spot for her - ever since when I was at school, I heard her, completely straight-faced, give the most explicit lecture on sexual etiquette to a room full of teenage boys that you can possible imagine!

Of course Butler-Sloss would not be influenced but that is not the point

Michael Havers was AG while the government was busy losing the Dickens dossier. There is an obvious conflict of interest. It is a stupid appointment because if she clears the government and all its ministers, many people will simply not believe her. I'd not be surprised if she stands down before the week is out. If she does not, then people will wonder what the government has to hide.

That was arguably the best goal of the lot.

PB's Neil is Germany at the moment.

I do worry he will get caught up in the moment and drink lots.

DecrepitJohnL said:

Charles said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 5s

YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead jumps four points to seven: CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%

So may be there is something real going on - that's 3 now in that zone.

But what?

Unwind from the Juncker stuff, and I'm going to say the paedophile story and headlines aren't helping the government.

You may be right, and the government may have scored another own goal in choosing Elizabeth Butler-Sloss to head the enquiry, given her brother was Attorney General at the time of some of these events.

Only in the tin foil community. Butler-Sloss was head (I think) of the Family Bench and simply the best and most experienced judge that the country has in these matters. Michael Havers died 25 years ago (appointing him Lord Chancellor knowing he had terminal cancer was a great kindness that Thatcher did him). There is no conflict, and Butler-Sloss is far too good and experienced a judge to allow it to colour her judgement.

But I've always had a soft spot for her - ever since when I was at school, I heard her, completely straight-faced, give the most explicit lecture on sexual etiquette to a room full of teenage boys that you can possible imagine!

It is a stupid appointment because if she clears the government and all its ministers, many people will simply not believe her.

It has to be said that to an extent that would be the case regardless of who undertakes it if that is the outcome, however justifiably it might be.

EdinTokyo It doesn't matter, Dave will claim any clawback of powers as a victory and take it to the polls. I agree, Juncker put it in his manifesto, the only candidate to do so, the press reporting of him was abysmal

TSE got there first.

Full time - Germany humiliate Brazil 7-1!

7-1!!

Darn - one goal away from winning a 10/1 bet on more than 8.5 goals.

Well played Germany.

kle4 said:

Charles said:

Smarmeron said:

@bigjohnowls
Perhaps they are inadvertently starting to annoy people?

"Fury over Michael Gove's 'hypocritical' £5m architect contract "
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/fury-over-michael-goves-hypocritical-5m-architect-contract-9593091.html

That article includes the best abuse of statistics I have ever seen:

Each worker will have around 11.25m² of workspace which compares to around 6m² per pupil in a typical new school.

Do they think, possibly, just possibly, having all the civil servants sitting in a single room at rows of desks might not be the most efficient way to run a department?

Or that adults are larger than children and require more space.

Although to be honest, I never attended a school where the pupils sat in rows of desks.It was generally groups of tables.

May be I'm older than you, but when I was a school 20 years ago it was rows of desks.

Joachim Low = Scipio Africanus

Luis Felipe Scolari = Hannibal

Calm down, chaps (it is mainly chaps, I think). The polls haven't changed for weeks. Read this book:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fooled_by_Randomness

Or, better still, take SeanT's approach.

On topic: Another spiffing selection by TSE. Atul Hatwal at no. 4 is spot-on, isn't he? As is the Economist chap at number 7.

As for Harriet getting frisky, no, I don't know either.

TSE no Low = Arminius; Luis Felipe Scolari = Publius Quinctillius Varus.

Socrates said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Socrates said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

@TSE

Re the Enoch comment, I think he only meant it in the same way that it would seem, at the moment, very strange to think of a white man as Pakistani.. maybe in 50 years time if there is mass immigration to Pakistan from Northern Europe it will seem racist in hindsight, but at the moment, if a Pakistani said it, I wouldn't feel like he was having a go at me

I'll dig out the full quote, but Enoch was a racist, and wrong on that, and many other things.

He was talking about the principle, which is what is currently espoused by Nick Griffin "If I were born in a barn, that doesn't make me a horse"

Indeed. It's not like there weren't non-whites who already had British passports and identified with this country in the 1960s.

There was a piece by Peter Oborne a few years ago, to tie in with his book on the D'Oliveria affair, said that it was the timing of the D'Oliveria affair is what damaged Enoch more than anything else.

Who would have thought that a Cape Coloured help changed the world, and this country, so much.

I think even without D'Oliveria acceptance would have happened. Britishness is not something that exists at a genetic level. It is something that is held in our minds. It's a set of common customs, dispositions and allegiances that unites us. You can have that whether your descent is from the Jutes, the Normans, the Igbo or the Sindhis.

When ever I am abroad I can recognise a fellow British just by looking at him.

kle4 said:

Charles said:

kle4 said:

Charles said:

Smarmeron said:

@bigjohnowls
Perhaps they are inadvertently starting to annoy people?

"Fury over Michael Gove's 'hypocritical' £5m architect contract "
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/fury-over-michael-goves-hypocritical-5m-architect-contract-9593091.html

That article includes the best abuse of statistics I have ever seen:

Each worker will have around 11.25m² of workspace which compares to around 6m² per pupil in a typical new school.

Do they think, possibly, just possibly, having all the civil servants sitting in a single room at rows of desks might not be the most efficient way to run a department?

Or that adults are larger than children and require more space.

Although to be honest, I never attended a school where the pupils sat in rows of desks.It was generally groups of tables.

May be I'm older than you, but when I was a school 20 years ago it was rows of desks.

Well i was in Primary 20 years ago as well - I think it was just because I went to crappy,poorly designed schools which forced a certain structure on the classrooms. You shoved in tables and clustered people round them any way you could.

Nah, not that difficult to build a box.

More likely is that there were too many pupils in the classes.

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ok, my theory on why the polls are widening.

Tories know if they take a lead in the polls, that doesn't help Better Together in the North Britain plebiscite.

The Tories are Unionists (it's in the party name), so we're taking one for the Union between now and September the 19th.

For me it has to be the paedophile stuff. The public is disgusted and the government is getting the blame. I can't think of anything else strong enough for this.

May well be right but an alternative way to make sense of this would be: Labour share declined leading up to the Euros - combination of voters not liking their position on foreigners and UKIP targetting their voters - then moved back to normal. Trend temporarily bucked by Cameron Standing Up For Britain over Juncker. which always seems to produce a short-lived polling bounce.

Luckyguy1983 said:

Charles said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 5s

YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead jumps four points to seven: CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%

So may be there is something real going on - that's 3 now in that zone.

But what?

Unwind from the Juncker stuff, and I'm going to say the paedophile story and headlines aren't helping the government.

You may be right, and the government may have scored another own goal in choosing Elizabeth Butler-Sloss to head the enquiry, given her brother was Attorney General at the time of some of these events.

Only in the tin foil community. Butler-Sloss was head (I think) of the Family Bench and simply the best and most experienced judge that the country has in these matters. Michael Havers died 25 years ago (appointing him Lord Chancellor knowing he had terminal cancer was a great kindness that Thatcher did him). There is no conflict, and Butler-Sloss is far too good and experienced a judge to allow it to colour her judgement.

But I've always had a soft spot for her - ever since when I was at school, I heard her, completely straight-faced, give the most explicit lecture on sexual etiquette to a room full of teenage boys that you can possible imagine!

I take it that's the same tinfoil community that has been alleging a paedophile conspiracy in Westminster (often at great personal cost) for the past 30 years, and been generally ignored.

That's saved us a fortune, no need for the inquiry, all claims are true, job, jobbed.

Tories are Brazil Fawlty tonight

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

@TSE

Re the Enoch comment, I think he only meant it in the same way that it would seem, at the moment, very strange to think of a white man as Pakistani.. maybe in 50 years time if there is mass immigration to Pakistan from Northern Europe it will seem racist in hindsight, but at the moment, if a Pakistani said it, I wouldn't feel like he was having a go at me

I'll dig out the full quote, but Enoch was a racist, and wrong on that, and many other things.

He was talking about the principle, which is what is currently espoused by Nick Griffin "If I were born in a barn, that doesn't make me a horse"

Jus Sanguinis is the how most advanced countries determine citizenship, where you are born, jus solo, has nothing to do with your nationality. Educate yourself.

Scott_P said:

@ScottishFA: Just a quick reminder that our first #EURO2016 qualifier is vs #GER in Dortmund in September. Good. #naeborra

That will need to be a night behind the sofa I think although I do recall us beating world champions before in 1967.

Nah, not that difficult to build a box.

More likely is that there were too many pupils in the classes.
I'd have thought so as well, but I actually chanced to see the old school's figures the other day - at a time when other schools in the area are fit to bursting, my old one is getting 20-25 a year despite a PAN of 45, which seems similar as far as I can recall in terms of numbers. It might just be that we're all weird down in the SW.


When ever I am abroad I can recognise a fellow British just by looking at him.
Really? Better than me, I cannot tell a fellow British just by looking at them in Britain, although sheer numbers means it is safe to assume most people are.

NickPalmer said:

From the Guardian footie blog:

"It's a measure of how downright German the Germans are that Manuel Neuer and his defenders were absolutely furious with each other for allowing Brazil to score that late goal."

It says that towards the end the Brazilian fans started applauding the Germans, simply because their play was so remarkable. Nice hostly sporting touch.

Same thing happened in Rocky IV. Sometimes you just have to hold you hand up and acknowledge things as they are.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Calm down, chaps (it is mainly chaps, I think). The polls haven't changed for weeks.

Maybe so, but it still looks crap for the Tories, and being calm about it will become less and less of an option as things continue to look crap for them. I think their slight optimism of the past few months will look a distant dream before too long,as the nature of the fight still before them sinks in.

Night all.

DecrepitJohnL said:

That is why it is so stupid to appoint the one judge whose brother was not just in the Cabinet but was Attorney General. It looks like a cover-up already, even before anyone has been cleared.

For heaven's sake - anyone who thinks Dame Butler-Sloss is going to be part of a cover-up is utterly beyond redemption.

Remarkable that at 80 she is able and willing to take on this huge task. Bravo to her!

At what point do the Cameroons and the modernisers admit defeat? Gay marriage, courting the Guardian, lists for MPs, all it has led to is failure to secure a majority and splitting the right against weaker opponents than William Hague touting a series of bankrupt ideas. Roll on UKIP.

Brazilians mullered.

Conservative majority still available to lay at 3.9 btw...

DecrepitJohnL said:

Beyond redemption maybe but they've all got the vote.

They've got the vote anyway. If they are so utterly out with the fairies as to think even Dame Elizabeth is part of some conspiracy, and to allow that to influence their vote, then there is nothing that can be done for them. We'll just have to write it off as one of those things.

However, I very much doubt that this will be the case.

Sweet Jesus did Mourinho really sell David Luiz to PSG for £50 million ?

Richard_Nabavi said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

That is why it is so stupid to appoint the one judge whose brother was not just in the Cabinet but was Attorney General. It looks like a cover-up already, even before anyone has been cleared.

For heaven's sake - anyone who thinks Dame Butler-Sloss is going to be part of a cover-up is utterly beyond redemption.

Remarkable that at 80 she is able and willing to take on this huge task. Bravo to her!

Mr Nabavi you know as well as I that some people want all enquiries run and stacked with marsupials. Even if the government had tracked down the Archangel Gabriel and got him to do the job there'd have been howls of cover up.

Con Maj at 3.85 is much better value than Lab Maj at 3.35, IMO. I can see a path to the former, albeit a difficult one, but the latter looks, though not out of reach, dependent on some major opinion-changing shifts.

TheScreamingEagles said:

In your face Nate Silver.

IN YOUR FACE NATE SILVER

Plus, I also tipped Muller as FGS.

Kerching.

Nate Silver's reliance on Brazil's home advantage -- no defeats since 1975 -- always looked odd because of course they were completely different players who didn't lose for four decades.

ToryJim said:

Mr Nabavi you know as well as I that some people want all enquiries run and stacked with marsupials. Even if the government had tracked down the Archangel Gabriel and got him to do the job there'd have been howls of cover up.

Of course. I mean, haven't you seen the Twitter rumours about the Archangel Gabriel?