No other pollster has the Greens above their usual 5%, but even if they were on 8%, Labour must not waver prioritising targeting Tory voters this term, there is no other viable strategy. If they lose the next election it's far, far more likely to be because they haven't won over enough Tory voters than because they've bled too many from the left.
Most of those Greens will go Labour in a GE, particularly in the marginals, whatever they say now.
The Green vote share in the seats of in NW Durham, Bury North, +South, Haywood and Middleton, Gedling, High Peak, Delyn and Stroud in 2019 were all larger than the Tory majority. That’s just the ones I could be bothered to check.
And in some of those seats, the candidates had close Green links (David Drew in Stroud, for example, sat as an independent on the district council and worked with the Greens not Labour).
We cannot assume that people will vote tactically just because it seems to others it’s the rational thing to do.
In several of those, though, that was only obvious after the event of the seat falling to the Tories.
I think most Green votes are first and foremost anti-Tory votes.
If we give children AZ, could we give them a smaller dose? It’s a very powerful vaccine. Is giving fit and healthy 11 year olds the same dose as 95 year olds the right strategy?
I think my question would be, if other vaccines are available why give them AZ if there is a risk involved in the latter?
Which is why (for example) the risk vector for under 30s now we have Moderna is different from that for over 50s two months ago.
I think we were right to use AZ when we did and how we did. I also think we should now be pivoting away until they can ‘fix’ the problem as we have access to other vaccines with seemingly fewer issues.
"One of the earliest lessons I learned on PB from the great Sir Bob Worcester was to not focus on the leads but the shares"
100% agreed.
Hope this is remembered next time we discuss leadership approval.
Sir Bob said to focus on the net scores when it comes to leader ratings.
I'm hoping to get his thoughts for a piece I'm doing in the next couple of months.
It would be good to get those thoughts because the logic of share works for both.
It's all about context 37% in 2015 wins the Tories a majority, in 2017 42.4% doesn't win the Tories a majority, you need to look at the other side.
But specifically on leader ratings the net score is important because it contextualises things, and it also tells you just how unpopular someone is.
Take 2015, Farage's absolute positives were similar to the leaders of other third parties, how his net score wasn't because he was so unpopular, it is the reason why say Kennedy in 2001 (absolute rating 35%, net 15%) ended up with a lot more MPs than Farage in 2015, (absolute 31%, net minus 25%).
The Lib Dems/Kennedy net scores showed they were very tactical voting friendly, Farage's net scores showed he wasn't going to get any tactical votes.
I don't think that's really a good comparison, 2001 the Lib Dems gained a grand total of 6 MPs not dozens of them. They were starting from a completely different bar than UKIP were.
Afterall if that's what we're going off then in 1987 General Election Kinnock had net -30%, Steel +15%, Owen +12
Kinnock ended up with a lot more MPs than Steel and Owen.
I just gave one example, there's plenty more.
I just cited just one third party example.
When you see the rest of it then you'll agree with me.
As I said, I'll be curious to see it.
But people vote for a party not against it, so being deeply more unpopular certainly could be a factor but I'd rather be 20% more gross popular and 2% less net than the other way around.
No other pollster has the Greens above their usual 5%, but even if they were on 8%, Labour must not waver prioritising targeting Tory voters this term, there is no other viable strategy. If they lose the next election it's far, far more likely to be because they haven't won over enough Tory voters than because they've bled too many from the left.
Most of those Greens will go Labour in a GE, particularly in the marginals, whatever they say now.
The Green vote share in the seats of in NW Durham, Bury North, +South, Haywood and Middleton, Gedling, High Peak, Delyn and Stroud in 2019 were all larger than the Tory majority. That’s just the ones I could be bothered to check.
And in some of those seats, the candidates had close Green links (David Drew in Stroud, for example, sat as an independent on the district council and worked with the Greens not Labour).
We cannot assume that people will vote tactically just because it seems to others it’s the rational thing to do.
@Casino_Royale will probably be vindicated, but I agree that it isn't certain.
We have to bear in mind, above all, that Labour's remaining supporter base skews very heavily towards the young, and the younger voters become the more likely they are to have idealistic (and typically hard left) beliefs and to stick with them. Now that the Corbynite tendency within Labour has been dethroned, there must at least be a chance that they'll decamp to the Greens and refuse to come back?
Considerably less than 100% of voters do so tactically. If they did then it's plausible to argue that nobody would vote Lib Dem in 19 out of every 20 Westminster constituencies, and their GE vote share would be about 0.5%.
Sons bar has been closed by police for selling alcohol outside - at tables socially distanced - they argue that he heeds a takeaway license.
As far as I can see he does not need one and have advised him to have them tell him exactly what law he is breaching
No doubt a pain for him, but the fact the police are trying is good.
Good in what sense?
Good in the sense that they re the police and that there are infringements of the current regulations.
You do not need a takeaway license as I understand it - so what law has he breached?
The police said it was for not having a takeaway license - this is why I have asked him to get them to tell him exactly which law he has broken
Check your son's license. Some premises are licensed for on-trade only, others for on and off trade.
By "takeaway license" I'd presume they mean a license for off trade. In normal circumstances if a premise isn't licensed for off trade and people are taking alcohol away then that's a problem they'd be expected to clamp down on.
But quite frankly now all on licenses really ought to be considered off ones in my opinion. No idea if they've changed the law on that though.
No other pollster has the Greens above their usual 5%, but even if they were on 8%, Labour must not waver prioritising targeting Tory voters this term, there is no other viable strategy. If they lose the next election it's far, far more likely to be because they haven't won over enough Tory voters than because they've bled too many from the left.
Most of those Greens will go Labour in a GE, particularly in the marginals, whatever they say now.
The Green vote share in the seats of in NW Durham, Bury North, +South, Haywood and Middleton, Gedling, High Peak, Delyn and Stroud in 2019 were all larger than the Tory majority. That’s just the ones I could be bothered to check.
And in some of those seats, the candidates had close Green links (David Drew in Stroud, for example, sat as an independent on the district council and worked with the Greens not Labour).
We cannot assume that people will vote tactically just because it seems to others it’s the rational thing to do.
In several of those, though, that was only obvious after the event of the seat falling to the Tories.
I think most Green votes are first and foremost anti-Tory votes.
Certainly not in the case of Stroud, where it is a Labour/Tory swing seat and has been for 20 years. The others with the possible exception of NW Durham were all known to be in play as well.
I think most Green votes are first and foremost ‘none of the above’ votes. Brexit Party for the left. If you wanted to be ‘anti-Tory’ in those seats, you would have voted Labour.
If we give children AZ, could we give them a smaller dose? It’s a very powerful vaccine. Is giving fit and healthy 11 year olds the same dose as 95 year olds the right strategy?
I think my question would be, if other vaccines are available why give them AZ if there is a risk involved in the latter?
Which is why (for example) the risk vector for under 30s now we have Moderna is different from that for over 50s two months ago.
I think we were right to use AZ when we did and how we did. I also think we should now be pivoting away until they can ‘fix’ the problem as we have access to other vaccines with seemingly fewer issues.
Fair point but the only caveat is the emerging evidence that AZ offers better protection against variants (it’s a less precise defence)
No other pollster has the Greens above their usual 5%, but even if they were on 8%, Labour must not waver prioritising targeting Tory voters this term, there is no other viable strategy. If they lose the next election it's far, far more likely to be because they haven't won over enough Tory voters than because they've bled too many from the left.
Maybe the question is have they won over any conservative voters
I sense that you are wavering - so that's one. And you're surely not alone.
I am not wavering, though I see Labour members are lauding Blair's success and of course I have only voted Labour twice in my 77 years, and both of those were for Blair
I just realised this was the poster who called me a liar just the other day for linking to a story clearly viewable on multiple MSM sites.
Shrugs shoulders
I presume that you actually mean me rather than Opinium?
Anabobizana - I think I addressed your point below.
@floater Please elaborate. I did incorrectly question the veracity of a post the other day, I don't think it was yours. I'm pretty sure I'd not have suggested you were a liar anyway.
I’ve just arranged to leave London, go to Dorset, pootle around, then go on and see family in Cornwall. Staying several nights away from home. I might even HUG MY MUM FOR THE FIRST TIME IN EIGHT MONTHS
"One of the earliest lessons I learned on PB from the great Sir Bob Worcester was to not focus on the leads but the shares"
100% agreed.
Hope this is remembered next time we discuss leadership approval.
Sir Bob said to focus on the net scores when it comes to leader ratings.
I'm hoping to get his thoughts for a piece I'm doing in the next couple of months.
It would be good to get those thoughts because the logic of share works for both.
It's all about context 37% in 2015 wins the Tories a majority, in 2017 42.4% doesn't win the Tories a majority, you need to look at the other side.
But specifically on leader ratings the net score is important because it contextualises things, and it also tells you just how unpopular someone is.
Take 2015, Farage's absolute positives were similar to the leaders of other third parties, how his net score wasn't because he was so unpopular, it is the reason why say Kennedy in 2001 (absolute rating 35%, net 15%) ended up with a lot more MPs than Farage in 2015, (absolute 31%, net minus 25%).
The Lib Dems/Kennedy net scores showed they were very tactical voting friendly, Farage's net scores showed he wasn't going to get any tactical votes.
I don't think that's really a good comparison, 2001 the Lib Dems gained a grand total of 6 MPs not dozens of them. They were starting from a completely different bar than UKIP were.
Afterall if that's what we're going off then in 1987 General Election Kinnock had net -30%, Steel +15%, Owen +12
Kinnock ended up with a lot more MPs than Steel and Owen.
I just gave one example, there's plenty more.
I just cited just one third party example.
When you see the rest of it then you'll agree with me.
As I said, I'll be curious to see it.
But people vote for a party not against it, so being deeply more unpopular certainly could be a factor but I'd rather be 20% more gross popular and 2% less net than the other way around.
You've never heard of tactical voting?
I've also heard of the Loch Ness Monster, its about as real most of the time..
No other pollster has the Greens above their usual 5%, but even if they were on 8%, Labour must not waver prioritising targeting Tory voters this term, there is no other viable strategy. If they lose the next election it's far, far more likely to be because they haven't won over enough Tory voters than because they've bled too many from the left.
Maybe the question is have they won over any conservative voters
I sense that you are wavering - so that's one. And you're surely not alone.
I am not wavering, though I see Labour members are lauding Blair's success and of course I have only voted Labour twice in my 77 years, and both of those were for Blair
If we give children AZ, could we give them a smaller dose? It’s a very powerful vaccine. Is giving fit and healthy 11 year olds the same dose as 95 year olds the right strategy?
I think my question would be, if other vaccines are available why give them AZ if there is a risk involved in the latter?
Which is why (for example) the risk vector for under 30s now we have Moderna is different from that for over 50s two months ago.
I think we were right to use AZ when we did and how we did. I also think we should now be pivoting away until they can ‘fix’ the problem as we have access to other vaccines with seemingly fewer issues.
Fair point but the only caveat is the emerging evidence that AZ offers better protection against variants (it’s a less precise defence)
True, but that is tentative right now, whereas the clotting issue is now pretty firmed up, and more of an issue in the younger.
If we give children AZ, could we give them a smaller dose? It’s a very powerful vaccine. Is giving fit and healthy 11 year olds the same dose as 95 year olds the right strategy?
I think my question would be, if other vaccines are available why give them AZ if there is a risk involved in the latter?
Which is why (for example) the risk vector for under 30s now we have Moderna is different from that for over 50s two months ago.
I think we were right to use AZ when we did and how we did. I also think we should now be pivoting away until they can ‘fix’ the problem as we have access to other vaccines with seemingly fewer issues.
Fair point but the only caveat is the emerging evidence that AZ offers better protection against variants (it’s a less precise defence)
Hmm, I've read the evidence and I'm not convinced. We don't know enough about t-cell cross immunity. I think a better designed mRNA or viral protein vaccine could achieve the same thing. We should be investing our cash in both of those mechanisms.
No other pollster has the Greens above their usual 5%, but even if they were on 8%, Labour must not waver prioritising targeting Tory voters this term, there is no other viable strategy. If they lose the next election it's far, far more likely to be because they haven't won over enough Tory voters than because they've bled too many from the left.
Maybe the question is have they won over any conservative voters
I sense that you are wavering - so that's one. And you're surely not alone.
I am not wavering, though I see Labour members are lauding Blair's success and of course I have only voted Labour twice in my 77 years, and both of those were for Blair
Oh. Well let's how it looks in a few months. Things can change.
I just realised this was the poster who called me a liar just the other day for linking to a story clearly viewable on multiple MSM sites.
Shrugs shoulders
I presume that you actually mean me rather than Opinium?
Anabobizana - I think I addressed your point below.
@floater Please elaborate. I did incorrectly question the veracity of a post the other day, I don't think it was yours. I'm pretty sure I'd not have suggested you were a liar anyway.
Unless I have missed it, no you haven’t addressed my point.
Why are the police bothering this guy? Can you explain what he’s done wrong?
No other pollster has the Greens above their usual 5%, but even if they were on 8%, Labour must not waver prioritising targeting Tory voters this term, there is no other viable strategy. If they lose the next election it's far, far more likely to be because they haven't won over enough Tory voters than because they've bled too many from the left.
Maybe the question is have they won over any conservative voters
I sense that you are wavering - so that's one. And you're surely not alone.
I am not wavering, though I see Labour members are lauding Blair's success and of course I have only voted Labour twice in my 77 years, and both of those were for Blair
No other pollster has the Greens above their usual 5%, but even if they were on 8%, Labour must not waver prioritising targeting Tory voters this term, there is no other viable strategy. If they lose the next election it's far, far more likely to be because they haven't won over enough Tory voters than because they've bled too many from the left.
Maybe the question is have they won over any conservative voters
I sense that you are wavering - so that's one. And you're surely not alone.
I am not wavering, though I see Labour members are lauding Blair's success and of course I have only voted Labour twice in my 77 years, and both of those were for Blair
Oh. Well let's how it looks in a few months. Things can change.
New German poll has the CDU/CSU up to 38% if CSU leader Soder is their chancellor candidate with the SPD on 19%, the Greens on 16%, the AfD on 11% and the FDP on 8%.
With CDU leader Laschet however the CDU/CSU are only on 27% with the SPD on 23%, the Greens on 20%, the AfD on 11% and the FDP on 10%
A curious feature of that poll is the SPD leapfroggiong the Greens in both variants. They're 6-7% behind in every other poll I suspect this poll, too, is something of an outlier.
If we give children AZ, could we give them a smaller dose? It’s a very powerful vaccine. Is giving fit and healthy 11 year olds the same dose as 95 year olds the right strategy?
I think my question would be, if other vaccines are available why give them AZ if there is a risk involved in the latter?
Which is why (for example) the risk vector for under 30s now we have Moderna is different from that for over 50s two months ago.
I think we were right to use AZ when we did and how we did. I also think we should now be pivoting away until they can ‘fix’ the problem as we have access to other vaccines with seemingly fewer issues.
Fair point but the only caveat is the emerging evidence that AZ offers better protection against variants (it’s a less precise defence)
Hmm, I've read the evidence and I'm not convinced. We don't know enough about t-cell cross immunity. I think a better designed mRNA or viral protein vaccine could achieve the same thing. We should be investing our cash in both of those mechanisms.
Absolutely agreed. Maybe because I got AZ I’m biased!
ok it was after midnight. The roads were deserted. And I only drive 30 yards to repark my car. BUT STILL
I AM THE LORD OF MISRULE
In all seriousness I wouldn’t have done that - drive 30 yards drunk at 1am - a year ago. A spirit of anarchy is abroad. The Rebel Yell echoes through the pine-stands
Three years is a long time in politics, a very long time. Nonetheless, I'm going to stick my neck out and say that it's not long enough for Sir Keir to turn things round. He's dull as ditchwater, he's an awful speaker, he doesn't seem to have any coherent position on anything, and Labour is starting from a very bad position electorally, organisationally, and in terms of public perception following the Corbyn years.
Even all that might not be irretrievable if it weren't for the fact that his shadow cabinet is even worse. At least one can envisage Starmer as PM without difficulty, but even Labour party members don't seem to think much of the Shadow Chancellor, Shadow Health Sec or Shadow Home Sec, if indeed they've noticed them at all.
It's a hell of a lot to turn round, and as things stand he seems to be losing ground, not gaining it.
For someone with an astute political sixth sense, and with such an analytical track record as yourself, I am surprised you aren't considering how volatlle or even soft three or four percent of the Tory vote has been over the last year. That could make a big difference, come the next election.
As it stands today, it looks like a comfortable Johnsonian Conservatives win, but if Johnson has another mare of a few months, as he his from late spring to December last year, and it occurs between now and the next election he could be in a spot of bother. Remember too, since mid December and the vaccine roll out, the news agenda until this week was wholly positive to the Johnson cause. That has changed this week and the news has been more Boris neutral (which is why I am more surprised by the YouGov than the Survation). I say Boris neutral as I am convinced the Cameron saga is associated with the Blair era rather than the Johnson era. If the Yougov is true it might be a case of the captives thanking their captors for their release this week.
And then there is the economy to consider. Will it play out as a three year post Brexit and post pandemic spending boom, as Philip Thompson asserts or will it be somewhat less impressive?
Starmer is no Blair, but neither is he an IDS or a Corbyn. Maybe he is Michael Howard, and the time is not quite right, but as I keep saying, Starmer doesn't scare the horses, and Governments lose elections. Besides which, after five years of Johnson, we might decide we want a Prime Minister who is somewhat less erratic.
I’ve just arranged to leave London, go to Dorset, pootle around, then go on and see family in Cornwall. Staying several nights away from home. I might even HUG MY MUM FOR THE FIRST TIME IN EIGHT MONTHS
Sue me
And there are people breaking the Rule of Six now. I can see some from my window. Plucky types. Hats off.
No other pollster has the Greens above their usual 5%, but even if they were on 8%, Labour must not waver prioritising targeting Tory voters this term, there is no other viable strategy. If they lose the next election it's far, far more likely to be because they haven't won over enough Tory voters than because they've bled too many from the left.
Maybe the question is have they won over any conservative voters
I sense that you are wavering - so that's one. And you're surely not alone.
I am not wavering, though I see Labour members are lauding Blair's success and of course I have only voted Labour twice in my 77 years, and both of those were for Blair
And just made 40,000 posts
Here’s to the next 40,000 Big-G!🥂
Thank you and I must remember to keep taking my pills !!!
ok it was after midnight. The roads were deserted. And I only drive 30 yards to repark my car. BUT STILL
I AM THE LORD OF MISRULE
In all seriousness I wouldn’t have done that - drive 30 yards drunk at 1am - a year ago. A spirit of anarchy is abroad. The Rebel Yell echoes through the pine-stands
About 5 years ago I reparked our car after a wedding. I swear my wife is a worse driver tired than I am after and long night of drinking (caveat - alcohol may have altered my mental faculties... ). It was only in a hotel car park but still felt daring...
Completely agree this is an outlier; but it's an outlier consistent with the trend that Labour are stuck and Tories have a tiny bit of upside potential looking at the trend.
However in general, just because events are events and generally don't on average play to the governing party's advantage, it seems to me that the longer this goes on the more tempting it must be for Boris to look for an opening for an election ASAP.
Because, 2017 debacle notwithstanding, with this set of Tories and this set of Labour politicians anyone reflecting on who is going to win extra votes in a short sharp campaign if it were now would say: Not Labour. The relevant charisma and wow factor is missing. Whatever their platform is, they have not even begun telling us.
Their only real slogan would be 'Time for a Change'. The Tories would do well to find an opening before that slogan could be effective.
Don't discount even 2022. 2023 is the latest from the perspective of now.
No other pollster has the Greens above their usual 5%, but even if they were on 8%, Labour must not waver prioritising targeting Tory voters this term, there is no other viable strategy. If they lose the next election it's far, far more likely to be because they haven't won over enough Tory voters than because they've bled too many from the left.
Most of those Greens will go Labour in a GE, particularly in the marginals, whatever they say now.
The Green vote share in the seats of in NW Durham, Bury North, +South, Haywood and Middleton, Gedling, High Peak, Delyn and Stroud in 2019 were all larger than the Tory majority. That’s just the ones I could be bothered to check.
And in some of those seats, the candidates had close Green links (David Drew in Stroud, for example, sat as an independent on the district council and worked with the Greens not Labour).
We cannot assume that people will vote tactically just because it seems to others it’s the rational thing to do.
@Casino_Royale will probably be vindicated, but I agree that it isn't certain.
We have to bear in mind, above all, that Labour's remaining supporter base skews very heavily towards the young, and the younger voters become the more likely they are to have idealistic (and typically hard left) beliefs and to stick with them. Now that the Corbynite tendency within Labour has been dethroned, there must at least be a chance that they'll decamp to the Greens and refuse to come back?
Considerably less than 100% of voters do so tactically. If they did then it's plausible to argue that nobody would vote Lib Dem in 19 out of every 20 Westminster constituencies, and their GE vote share would be about 0.5%.
I would be surprised to see the Greens exceed 3% in a GE. In the aftermatn of the 2015 election it was reasonable to suggest that Green candidates - in what turned out to be key marginals - were decisive in producing Cameron's small majority rather than another hung Parliament. There were circa 8 seats in which the Green vote significantly exceeded the Tory majority that year - eg Gower - Plymouth Sutton & Devonport - Brighton Kemptown. Their candidated stood down in 2019 with Labour gaining several of those seats. Much of this is hindsight though - in that marginal seats are not always obvious in advance.
I’ve just arranged to leave London, go to Dorset, pootle around, then go on and see family in Cornwall. Staying several nights away from home. I might even HUG MY MUM FOR THE FIRST TIME IN EIGHT MONTHS
I’ve just arranged to leave London, go to Dorset, pootle around, then go on and see family in Cornwall. Staying several nights away from home. I might even HUG MY MUM FOR THE FIRST TIME IN EIGHT MONTHS
Sue me
And there are people breaking the Rule of Six now. I can see some from my window. Plucky types. Hats off.
I’m down with the KIDZ. Monster Jam! I’m bare wicked innit bro
Minecraft! Ya sistah
No polis gun stop me bruv me stayin with fam in Truro!!
No other pollster has the Greens above their usual 5%, but even if they were on 8%, Labour must not waver prioritising targeting Tory voters this term, there is no other viable strategy. If they lose the next election it's far, far more likely to be because they haven't won over enough Tory voters than because they've bled too many from the left.
Most of those Greens will go Labour in a GE, particularly in the marginals, whatever they say now.
The Green vote share in the seats of in NW Durham, Bury North, +South, Haywood and Middleton, Gedling, High Peak, Delyn and Stroud in 2019 were all larger than the Tory majority. That’s just the ones I could be bothered to check.
And in some of those seats, the candidates had close Green links (David Drew in Stroud, for example, sat as an independent on the district council and worked with the Greens not Labour).
We cannot assume that people will vote tactically just because it seems to others it’s the rational thing to do.
@Casino_Royale will probably be vindicated, but I agree that it isn't certain.
We have to bear in mind, above all, that Labour's remaining supporter base skews very heavily towards the young, and the younger voters become the more likely they are to have idealistic (and typically hard left) beliefs and to stick with them. Now that the Corbynite tendency within Labour has been dethroned, there must at least be a chance that they'll decamp to the Greens and refuse to come back?
Considerably less than 100% of voters do so tactically. If they did then it's plausible to argue that nobody would vote Lib Dem in 19 out of every 20 Westminster constituencies, and their GE vote share would be about 0.5%.
I’m sure you can’t mean what you seem to have said there.
But if you have something that reverses ageing, please let me know what it is and where to get some.
If we give children AZ, could we give them a smaller dose? It’s a very powerful vaccine. Is giving fit and healthy 11 year olds the same dose as 95 year olds the right strategy?
I think my question would be, if other vaccines are available why give them AZ if there is a risk involved in the latter?
Which is why (for example) the risk vector for under 30s now we have Moderna is different from that for over 50s two months ago.
I think we were right to use AZ when we did and how we did. I also think we should now be pivoting away until they can ‘fix’ the problem as we have access to other vaccines with seemingly fewer issues.
Fair point but the only caveat is the emerging evidence that AZ offers better protection against variants (it’s a less precise defence)
Hmm, I've read the evidence and I'm not convinced. We don't know enough about t-cell cross immunity. I think a better designed mRNA or viral protein vaccine could achieve the same thing. We should be investing our cash in both of those mechanisms.
I would assume that Novavax covers the second base, and the new research and production facility being built in Oxfordshire the first, if it can be purposed to manufacture e.g. Moderna under licence? Although granted I've no idea how close it is to being operational.
Visiting York. Maybe a cafe rather than a pub - I imagine that they are all booked up.
You might be able to find one that does walk-ins. I’m thankful that my local(ish) does walk-ins *only*. Landlord says he can’t be faffed with booking and therefore the whole experience is more pub-like.
ok it was after midnight. The roads were deserted. And I only drive 30 yards to repark my car. BUT STILL
I AM THE LORD OF MISRULE
In all seriousness I wouldn’t have done that - drive 30 yards drunk at 1am - a year ago. A spirit of anarchy is abroad. The Rebel Yell echoes through the pine-stands
About 5 years ago I reparked our car after a wedding. I swear my wife is a worse driver tired than I am after and long night of drinking (caveat - alcohol may have altered my mental faculties... ). It was only in a hotel car park but still felt daring...
One wedding I went to, many years ago, I snorted coke off the bonnet of the happy couple’s hired Rolls Royce - in broad daylight, at 3pm, along with one of the bridesmaids. It was parked outside the very posh hotel, booked for the reception.
Then I took the bridesmaid back to my family house and fucked her on the washing machine (spin cycle)
I was a younger man then. These days I get excited if I drive tipsy for 30 meters on an empty road. SIGH
Completely agree this is an outlier; but it's an outlier consistent with the trend that Labour are stuck and Tories have a tiny bit of upside potential looking at the trend.
However in general, just because events are events and generally don't on average play to the governing party's advantage, it seems to me that the longer this goes on the more tempting it must be for Boris to look for an opening for an election ASAP.
Because, 2017 debacle notwithstanding, with this set of Tories and this set of Labour politicians anyone reflecting on who is going to win extra votes in a short sharp campaign if it were now would say: Not Labour. The relevant charisma and wow factor is missing. Whatever their platform is, they have not even begun telling us.
Their only real slogan would be 'Time for a Change'. The Tories would do well to find an opening before that slogan could be effective.
Don't discount even 2022. 2023 is the latest from the perspective of now.
The best case scenario for Labour is that Boris calls a snap poll and Labour immediately switches to a telegenic unknown like Allin-Khan, and squeezes largest party, Jacinda-style.
Looking at the data, the end of lockdown ought to be brought forward a bit from 21st June. But I doubt Johnson will do it.
Though if the timetable is followed then many of the most tedious measures will be scrapped on May 17th. It will certainly be an almighty relief to be rid of the prohibition on hotels opening and overnight home stays: visits to parents haven't happened since last September and we're eager to go.
Yes, there’s not much difference between 17 May and 21 June in practical terms. clubbing, wedding, festivals are all very important but don’t massively affect day to day lives.
Indoors rule of 6 people/2 households applies between those dates. Although it wont be adhered to.
ok it was after midnight. The roads were deserted. And I only drive 30 yards to repark my car. BUT STILL
I AM THE LORD OF MISRULE
In all seriousness I wouldn’t have done that - drive 30 yards drunk at 1am - a year ago. A spirit of anarchy is abroad. The Rebel Yell echoes through the pine-stands
About 5 years ago I reparked our car after a wedding. I swear my wife is a worse driver tired than I am after and long night of drinking (caveat - alcohol may have altered my mental faculties... ). It was only in a hotel car park but still felt daring...
One wedding I went to, many years ago, I snorted coke off the bonnet of the happy couple’s hired Rolls Royce - in broad daylight, at 3pm, along with one of the bridesmaids. It was parked outside the very posh hotel, booked for the reception.
Then I took the bridesmaid back to my family house and fucked her on the washing machine (spin cycle)
I was a younger man then. These days I get excited if I drive tipsy for 30 meters on an empty road. SIGH
You tumbled her on a washing machine?
Sounds like the sort of crazy thing old @SeanT would do.
Visiting York. Maybe a cafe rather than a pub - I imagine that they are all booked up.
You might be able to find one that does walk-ins. I’m thankful that my local(ish) does walk-ins *only*. Landlord says he can’t be faffed with booking and therefore the whole experience is more pub-like.
In any case, hope you have a good day out!
Cheers. Rest assured, I shall be reporting back with my experiences from the day.
"The only thing in Starmer’s favour is that we’re a little over three years away from the scheduled date of the next general election, that gives him time to turn things around."
Boris won't wait until the last minutes though. He'll do a Maggie and call the election in the fourth year (2023) IMO.
To take advantage of new boundaries he would have to wait until Autumn 2023.
Am I the only one who doesn't understand WHY it takes so long? Let's look at the case of Wales.
There are FOUR Boundary Commissioners for Wales (they are supplied with plenty of backroom help).
They have to redraw 31 seats. (Because Ynys Mon is protected and so its boundaries are fixed by the Irish Sea).
How on earth does this take THREE YEARS?
A competent individual should be able to get the job done in an afternoon with a penalized optimisation code.
All right, so there is a comments & consultation process ... but this is NOT three years work for four people.
ok it was after midnight. The roads were deserted. And I only drive 30 yards to repark my car. BUT STILL
I AM THE LORD OF MISRULE
In all seriousness I wouldn’t have done that - drive 30 yards drunk at 1am - a year ago. A spirit of anarchy is abroad. The Rebel Yell echoes through the pine-stands
About 5 years ago I reparked our car after a wedding. I swear my wife is a worse driver tired than I am after and long night of drinking (caveat - alcohol may have altered my mental faculties... ). It was only in a hotel car park but still felt daring...
One wedding I went to, many years ago, I snorted coke off the bonnet of the happy couple’s hired Rolls Royce - in broad daylight, at 3pm, along with one of the bridesmaids. It was parked outside the very posh hotel, booked for the reception.
Then I took the bridesmaid back to my family house and fucked her on the washing machine (spin cycle)
I was a younger man then. These days I get excited if I drive tipsy for 30 meters on an empty road. SIGH
Completely agree this is an outlier; but it's an outlier consistent with the trend that Labour are stuck and Tories have a tiny bit of upside potential looking at the trend.
However in general, just because events are events and generally don't on average play to the governing party's advantage, it seems to me that the longer this goes on the more tempting it must be for Boris to look for an opening for an election ASAP.
Because, 2017 debacle notwithstanding, with this set of Tories and this set of Labour politicians anyone reflecting on who is going to win extra votes in a short sharp campaign if it were now would say: Not Labour. The relevant charisma and wow factor is missing. Whatever their platform is, they have not even begun telling us.
Their only real slogan would be 'Time for a Change'. The Tories would do well to find an opening before that slogan could be effective.
Don't discount even 2022. 2023 is the latest from the perspective of now.
The best case scenario for Labour is that Boris calls a snap poll and Labour immediately switches to a telegenic unknown like Allin-Khan, and squeezes largest party, Jacinda-style.
Allin-Khan is by a country mile the most interesting possible future leader. This'd be like Maggie with the Tories though. A complete change.
No other pollster has the Greens above their usual 5%, but even if they were on 8%, Labour must not waver prioritising targeting Tory voters this term, there is no other viable strategy. If they lose the next election it's far, far more likely to be because they haven't won over enough Tory voters than because they've bled too many from the left.
Most of those Greens will go Labour in a GE, particularly in the marginals, whatever they say now.
The Green vote share in the seats of in NW Durham, Bury North, +South, Haywood and Middleton, Gedling, High Peak, Delyn and Stroud in 2019 were all larger than the Tory majority. That’s just the ones I could be bothered to check.
And in some of those seats, the candidates had close Green links (David Drew in Stroud, for example, sat as an independent on the district council and worked with the Greens not Labour).
We cannot assume that people will vote tactically just because it seems to others it’s the rational thing to do.
Starmer could do with a good ground game to squeeze Greens and LDs in Lab/Con marginals, as well as getting straight Con-Lab switchers. A difficult combination, and I cannot see it happening.
He doesn't inspire activists, and if he cannot inspire them then how can he inspire anyone else? At best people are half hearted about him.
No other pollster has the Greens above their usual 5%, but even if they were on 8%, Labour must not waver prioritising targeting Tory voters this term, there is no other viable strategy. If they lose the next election it's far, far more likely to be because they haven't won over enough Tory voters than because they've bled too many from the left.
Most of those Greens will go Labour in a GE, particularly in the marginals, whatever they say now.
The Green vote share in the seats of in NW Durham, Bury North, +South, Haywood and Middleton, Gedling, High Peak, Delyn and Stroud in 2019 were all larger than the Tory majority. That’s just the ones I could be bothered to check.
And in some of those seats, the candidates had close Green links (David Drew in Stroud, for example, sat as an independent on the district council and worked with the Greens not Labour).
We cannot assume that people will vote tactically just because it seems to others it’s the rational thing to do.
@Casino_Royale will probably be vindicated, but I agree that it isn't certain.
We have to bear in mind, above all, that Labour's remaining supporter base skews very heavily towards the young, and the younger voters become the more likely they are to have idealistic (and typically hard left) beliefs and to stick with them. Now that the Corbynite tendency within Labour has been dethroned, there must at least be a chance that they'll decamp to the Greens and refuse to come back?
Considerably less than 100% of voters do so tactically. If they did then it's plausible to argue that nobody would vote Lib Dem in 19 out of every 20 Westminster constituencies, and their GE vote share would be about 0.5%.
I’m sure you can’t mean what you seem to have said there.
But if you have something that reverses ageing, please let me know what it is and where to get some.
Oh very droll - OK, the younger voters ARE, then... My God, I could do with the elixir of youth right now mind. Having been crocked by an injury for the last six weeks, I had a go at a 10k trail run this afternoon. Apart from being slow as Hell, I was knackered for hours afterwards and my legs still object every time I have to haul myself up from a seated position. One suffered from none of these problems twenty years ago.
Three years is a long time in politics, a very long time. Nonetheless, I'm going to stick my neck out and say that it's not long enough for Sir Keir to turn things round. He's dull as ditchwater, he's an awful speaker, he doesn't seem to have any coherent position on anything, and Labour is starting from a very bad position electorally, organisationally, and in terms of public perception following the Corbyn years.
Even all that might not be irretrievable if it weren't for the fact that his shadow cabinet is even worse. At least one can envisage Starmer as PM without difficulty, but even Labour party members don't seem to think much of the Shadow Chancellor, Shadow Health Sec or Shadow Home Sec, if indeed they've noticed them at all.
It's a hell of a lot to turn round, and as things stand he seems to be losing ground, not gaining it.
For someone with an astute political sixth sense, and with such an analytical track record as yourself, I am surprised you aren't considering how volatlle or even soft three or four percent of the Tory vote has been over the last year. That could make a big difference, come the next election.
As it stands today, it looks like a comfortable Johnsonian Conservatives win, but if Johnson has another mare of a few months, as he his from late spring to December last year, and it occurs between now and the next election he could be in a spot of bother. Remember too, since mid December and the vaccine roll out, the news agenda until this week was wholly positive to the Johnson cause. That has changed this week and the news has been more Boris neutral (which is why I am more surprised by the YouGov than the Survation). I say Boris neutral as I am convinced the Cameron saga is associated with the Blair era rather than the Johnson era. If the Yougov is true it might be a case of the captives thanking their captors for their release this week.
And then there is the economy to consider. Will it play out as a three year post Brexit and post pandemic spending boom, as Philip Thompson asserts or will it be somewhat less impressive?
Starmer is no Blair, but neither is he an IDS or a Corbyn. Maybe he is Michael Howard, and the time is not quite right, but as I keep saying, Starmer doesn't scare the horses, and Governments lose elections. Besides which, after five years of Johnson, we might decide we want a Prime Minister who is somewhat less erratic.
Another Starmer-positive factor is that he seems bright enough to recognise his weaknesses and diligent enough to do something about them. PMQs is Westminster Bubble, and it was an open goal, but looser, funnier Starmer worked this week.
But the important thing for BoJo fans who want to count their chickens- this was ICM in early July 1992;
Cons 45% Lab 36%
And this was IPSOS-MORI in September 2007;
Lab 44% Cons 31%
Cherry-picked? A bit, but those results weren't out of line with others at those times.
"The only thing in Starmer’s favour is that we’re a little over three years away from the scheduled date of the next general election, that gives him time to turn things around."
Boris won't wait until the last minutes though. He'll do a Maggie and call the election in the fourth year (2023) IMO.
To take advantage of new boundaries he would have to wait until Autumn 2023.
Am I the only one who doesn't understand WHY it takes so long? Let's look at the case of Wales.
There are FOUR Boundary Commissioners for Wales (they are supplied with plenty of backroom help).
They have to redraw 31 seats. (Because Ynys Mon is protected and so its boundaries are fixed by the Irish Sea).
How on earth does this take THREE YEARS?
A competent individual should be able to get the job done in an afternoon with a penalized optimisation code.
All right, so there is a comments & consultation process ... but this is NOT three years work for four people.
Because how would all the civil servants with cushy jobs justify their nice salaries if they could do the job in an afternoon on secondment from the DCLG?
ok it was after midnight. The roads were deserted. And I only drive 30 yards to repark my car. BUT STILL
I AM THE LORD OF MISRULE
In all seriousness I wouldn’t have done that - drive 30 yards drunk at 1am - a year ago. A spirit of anarchy is abroad. The Rebel Yell echoes through the pine-stands
About 5 years ago I reparked our car after a wedding. I swear my wife is a worse driver tired than I am after and long night of drinking (caveat - alcohol may have altered my mental faculties... ). It was only in a hotel car park but still felt daring...
One wedding I went to, many years ago, I snorted coke off the bonnet of the happy couple’s hired Rolls Royce - in broad daylight, at 3pm, along with one of the bridesmaids. It was parked outside the very posh hotel, booked for the reception.
Then I took the bridesmaid back to my family house and fucked her on the washing machine (spin cycle)
I was a younger man then. These days I get excited if I drive tipsy for 30 meters on an empty road. SIGH
You tumbled her on a washing machine?
Sounds like the sort of crazy thing old @SeanT would do.
Dunno about him, but I once co-hosted a very wild house party in Islington with quite famous people like **** ******* and ******* ******* all doing endless drugs in rather a surreal way. The surreality culminated when one of my housemates went into the bathroom to find a Bananarama being fucked on the tumbledryer
No other pollster has the Greens above their usual 5%, but even if they were on 8%, Labour must not waver prioritising targeting Tory voters this term, there is no other viable strategy. If they lose the next election it's far, far more likely to be because they haven't won over enough Tory voters than because they've bled too many from the left.
Most of those Greens will go Labour in a GE, particularly in the marginals, whatever they say now.
The Green vote share in the seats of in NW Durham, Bury North, +South, Haywood and Middleton, Gedling, High Peak, Delyn and Stroud in 2019 were all larger than the Tory majority. That’s just the ones I could be bothered to check.
And in some of those seats, the candidates had close Green links (David Drew in Stroud, for example, sat as an independent on the district council and worked with the Greens not Labour).
We cannot assume that people will vote tactically just because it seems to others it’s the rational thing to do.
Starmer could do with a good ground game to squeeze Greens and LDs in Lab/Con marginals, as well as getting straight Con-Lab switchers. A difficult combination, and I cannot see it happening.
He doesn't inspire activists, and if he cannot inspire them then how can he inspire anyone else? At best people are half hearted about him.
Green candidates may well not stand in what are perceived to be Tory-Labour marginals. That did happen in 2017.
No other pollster has the Greens above their usual 5%, but even if they were on 8%, Labour must not waver prioritising targeting Tory voters this term, there is no other viable strategy. If they lose the next election it's far, far more likely to be because they haven't won over enough Tory voters than because they've bled too many from the left.
Most of those Greens will go Labour in a GE, particularly in the marginals, whatever they say now.
The Green vote share in the seats of in NW Durham, Bury North, +South, Haywood and Middleton, Gedling, High Peak, Delyn and Stroud in 2019 were all larger than the Tory majority. That’s just the ones I could be bothered to check.
And in some of those seats, the candidates had close Green links (David Drew in Stroud, for example, sat as an independent on the district council and worked with the Greens not Labour).
We cannot assume that people will vote tactically just because it seems to others it’s the rational thing to do.
Starmer could do with a good ground game to squeeze Greens and LDs in Lab/Con marginals, as well as getting straight Con-Lab switchers. A difficult combination, and I cannot see it happening.
He doesn't inspire activists, and if he cannot inspire them then how can he inspire anyone else? At best people are half hearted about him.
Green candidates may well not stand in what are perceived to be Tory-Labour marginals. That did happen in 2017.
Completely agree this is an outlier; but it's an outlier consistent with the trend that Labour are stuck and Tories have a tiny bit of upside potential looking at the trend.
However in general, just because events are events and generally don't on average play to the governing party's advantage, it seems to me that the longer this goes on the more tempting it must be for Boris to look for an opening for an election ASAP.
Because, 2017 debacle notwithstanding, with this set of Tories and this set of Labour politicians anyone reflecting on who is going to win extra votes in a short sharp campaign if it were now would say: Not Labour. The relevant charisma and wow factor is missing. Whatever their platform is, they have not even begun telling us.
Their only real slogan would be 'Time for a Change'. The Tories would do well to find an opening before that slogan could be effective.
Don't discount even 2022. 2023 is the latest from the perspective of now.
The best case scenario for Labour is that Boris calls a snap poll and Labour immediately switches to a telegenic unknown like Allin-Khan, and squeezes largest party, Jacinda-style.
Jacinda did not get largest party in 2017, the Nationals remained largest party, she only got in with Greens and NZ First support. She only won a majority for New Zealand Labour in 2020
No other pollster has the Greens above their usual 5%, but even if they were on 8%, Labour must not waver prioritising targeting Tory voters this term, there is no other viable strategy. If they lose the next election it's far, far more likely to be because they haven't won over enough Tory voters than because they've bled too many from the left.
Most of those Greens will go Labour in a GE, particularly in the marginals, whatever they say now.
The Green vote share in the seats of in NW Durham, Bury North, +South, Haywood and Middleton, Gedling, High Peak, Delyn and Stroud in 2019 were all larger than the Tory majority. That’s just the ones I could be bothered to check.
And in some of those seats, the candidates had close Green links (David Drew in Stroud, for example, sat as an independent on the district council and worked with the Greens not Labour).
We cannot assume that people will vote tactically just because it seems to others it’s the rational thing to do.
@Casino_Royale will probably be vindicated, but I agree that it isn't certain.
We have to bear in mind, above all, that Labour's remaining supporter base skews very heavily towards the young, and the younger voters become the more likely they are to have idealistic (and typically hard left) beliefs and to stick with them. Now that the Corbynite tendency within Labour has been dethroned, there must at least be a chance that they'll decamp to the Greens and refuse to come back?
Considerably less than 100% of voters do so tactically. If they did then it's plausible to argue that nobody would vote Lib Dem in 19 out of every 20 Westminster constituencies, and their GE vote share would be about 0.5%.
I’m sure you can’t mean what you seem to have said there.
But if you have something that reverses ageing, please let me know what it is and where to get some.
Oh very droll - OK, the younger voters ARE, then... My God, I could do with the elixir of youth right now mind. Having been crocked by an injury for the last six weeks, I had a go at a 10k trail run this afternoon. Apart from being slow as Hell, I was knackered for hours afterwards and my legs still object every time I have to haul myself up from a seated position. One suffered from none of these problems twenty years ago.
My legs object to having to haul myself up as a daily routine
ok it was after midnight. The roads were deserted. And I only drive 30 yards to repark my car. BUT STILL
I AM THE LORD OF MISRULE
In all seriousness I wouldn’t have done that - drive 30 yards drunk at 1am - a year ago. A spirit of anarchy is abroad. The Rebel Yell echoes through the pine-stands
About 5 years ago I reparked our car after a wedding. I swear my wife is a worse driver tired than I am after and long night of drinking (caveat - alcohol may have altered my mental faculties... ). It was only in a hotel car park but still felt daring...
One wedding I went to, many years ago, I snorted coke off the bonnet of the happy couple’s hired Rolls Royce - in broad daylight, at 3pm, along with one of the bridesmaids. It was parked outside the very posh hotel, booked for the reception.
Then I took the bridesmaid back to my family house and fucked her on the washing machine (spin cycle)
I was a younger man then. These days I get excited if I drive tipsy for 30 meters on an empty road. SIGH
Were you the groom?
Lol. Very droll
Believe it or not I actually reined that anecdote in, to save the blushes of OGH and TSE. The full debauchery is too extreme even for post-lagershed PB
ok it was after midnight. The roads were deserted. And I only drive 30 yards to repark my car. BUT STILL
I AM THE LORD OF MISRULE
In all seriousness I wouldn’t have done that - drive 30 yards drunk at 1am - a year ago. A spirit of anarchy is abroad. The Rebel Yell echoes through the pine-stands
About 5 years ago I reparked our car after a wedding. I swear my wife is a worse driver tired than I am after and long night of drinking (caveat - alcohol may have altered my mental faculties... ). It was only in a hotel car park but still felt daring...
One wedding I went to, many years ago, I snorted coke off the bonnet of the happy couple’s hired Rolls Royce - in broad daylight, at 3pm, along with one of the bridesmaids. It was parked outside the very posh hotel, booked for the reception.
Then I took the bridesmaid back to my family house and fucked her on the washing machine (spin cycle)
I was a younger man then. These days I get excited if I drive tipsy for 30 meters on an empty road. SIGH
You tumbled her on a washing machine?
Sounds like the sort of crazy thing old @SeanT would do.
Dunno about him, but I once co-hosted a very wild house party in Islington with quite famous people like **** ******* and ******* ******* all doing endless drugs in rather a surreal way. The surreality culminated when one of my housemates went into the bathroom to find a Bananarama being fucked on the tumbledryer
It ain't what you do, it's the place that you do it It ain't what you do, it's the place that you do it It ain't what you do, it's the place that you do it And that's what gets results
No other pollster has the Greens above their usual 5%, but even if they were on 8%, Labour must not waver prioritising targeting Tory voters this term, there is no other viable strategy. If they lose the next election it's far, far more likely to be because they haven't won over enough Tory voters than because they've bled too many from the left.
Most of those Greens will go Labour in a GE, particularly in the marginals, whatever they say now.
The Green vote share in the seats of in NW Durham, Bury North, +South, Haywood and Middleton, Gedling, High Peak, Delyn and Stroud in 2019 were all larger than the Tory majority. That’s just the ones I could be bothered to check.
And in some of those seats, the candidates had close Green links (David Drew in Stroud, for example, sat as an independent on the district council and worked with the Greens not Labour).
We cannot assume that people will vote tactically just because it seems to others it’s the rational thing to do.
Starmer could do with a good ground game to squeeze Greens and LDs in Lab/Con marginals, as well as getting straight Con-Lab switchers. A difficult combination, and I cannot see it happening.
He doesn't inspire activists, and if he cannot inspire them then how can he inspire anyone else? At best people are half hearted about him.
Green candidates may well not stand in what are perceived to be Tory-Labour marginals. That did happen in 2017.
In which case will their voters vote at all?
Most would vote - though not all would vote Labour.
"The only thing in Starmer’s favour is that we’re a little over three years away from the scheduled date of the next general election, that gives him time to turn things around."
Boris won't wait until the last minutes though. He'll do a Maggie and call the election in the fourth year (2023) IMO.
To take advantage of new boundaries he would have to wait until Autumn 2023.
Am I the only one who doesn't understand WHY it takes so long? Let's look at the case of Wales.
There are FOUR Boundary Commissioners for Wales (they are supplied with plenty of backroom help).
They have to redraw 31 seats. (Because Ynys Mon is protected and so its boundaries are fixed by the Irish Sea).
How on earth does this take THREE YEARS?
A competent individual should be able to get the job done in an afternoon with a penalized optimisation code.
All right, so there is a comments & consultation process ... but this is NOT three years work for four people.
God alone knows. AIUI the preference is always to avoid splitting wards when creating constituencies, so even with a complete redraw of the whole map they've only got to stitch together X-number of wards, each containing a known number of electors, to create seats of roughly the correct size.
Taking sensible account of terrain, the catchment areas of towns, and local government boundaries (you probably wouldn't want to create a seat that straddled more than two council areas) means that giving the effort proper consideration would take rather more than an afternoon, but you'd think they'd have no trouble in getting Wales's relatively modest allocation done in a fortnight. The consultation process could be used to iron out any kinks, and voila! Whole thing done in six months.
ok it was after midnight. The roads were deserted. And I only drive 30 yards to repark my car. BUT STILL
I AM THE LORD OF MISRULE
In all seriousness I wouldn’t have done that - drive 30 yards drunk at 1am - a year ago. A spirit of anarchy is abroad. The Rebel Yell echoes through the pine-stands
About 5 years ago I reparked our car after a wedding. I swear my wife is a worse driver tired than I am after and long night of drinking (caveat - alcohol may have altered my mental faculties... ). It was only in a hotel car park but still felt daring...
One wedding I went to, many years ago, I snorted coke off the bonnet of the happy couple’s hired Rolls Royce - in broad daylight, at 3pm, along with one of the bridesmaids. It was parked outside the very posh hotel, booked for the reception.
Then I took the bridesmaid back to my family house and fucked her on the washing machine (spin cycle)
I was a younger man then. These days I get excited if I drive tipsy for 30 meters on an empty road. SIGH
True story:
At my brothers wedding, the best man seduced one of the bridesmaids. Not so unusual perhaps, but the tricky part was persuading the bridesmaid to do the deed up a tree, on a branch overhanging a lake in the hotel grounds. Apparently it took him an hour to convince her to climb the tree. To cap it all he had the keys to the bride and groom's hotel room on him so they had to wait for the couple to reappear at 3 AM to allow them to turn in.
In a bit of karma for all his misbehaviour, he now has three daughters.
ok it was after midnight. The roads were deserted. And I only drive 30 yards to repark my car. BUT STILL
I AM THE LORD OF MISRULE
In all seriousness I wouldn’t have done that - drive 30 yards drunk at 1am - a year ago. A spirit of anarchy is abroad. The Rebel Yell echoes through the pine-stands
About 5 years ago I reparked our car after a wedding. I swear my wife is a worse driver tired than I am after and long night of drinking (caveat - alcohol may have altered my mental faculties... ). It was only in a hotel car park but still felt daring...
One wedding I went to, many years ago, I snorted coke off the bonnet of the happy couple’s hired Rolls Royce - in broad daylight, at 3pm, along with one of the bridesmaids. It was parked outside the very posh hotel, booked for the reception.
Then I took the bridesmaid back to my family house and fucked her on the washing machine (spin cycle)
I was a younger man then. These days I get excited if I drive tipsy for 30 meters on an empty road. SIGH
You tumbled her on a washing machine?
Sounds like the sort of crazy thing old @SeanT would do.
Dunno about him, but I once co-hosted a very wild house party in Islington with quite famous people like **** ******* and ******* ******* all doing endless drugs in rather a surreal way. The surreality culminated when one of my housemates went into the bathroom to find a Bananarama being fucked on the tumbledryer
It ain't what you do, it's the place that you do it It ain't what you do, it's the place that you do it It ain't what you do, it's the place that you do it And that's what gets results
The reserved English gentleman in me prevents me from revealing WHICH Bananarama, of course
I can say there are rumours, to this day, the entwined paramours were not only on top of a rattling tumbledryer, but also using an electric toothbrush
ok it was after midnight. The roads were deserted. And I only drive 30 yards to repark my car. BUT STILL
I AM THE LORD OF MISRULE
In all seriousness I wouldn’t have done that - drive 30 yards drunk at 1am - a year ago. A spirit of anarchy is abroad. The Rebel Yell echoes through the pine-stands
About 5 years ago I reparked our car after a wedding. I swear my wife is a worse driver tired than I am after and long night of drinking (caveat - alcohol may have altered my mental faculties... ). It was only in a hotel car park but still felt daring...
One wedding I went to, many years ago, I snorted coke off the bonnet of the happy couple’s hired Rolls Royce - in broad daylight, at 3pm, along with one of the bridesmaids. It was parked outside the very posh hotel, booked for the reception.
Then I took the bridesmaid back to my family house and fucked her on the washing machine (spin cycle)
I was a younger man then. These days I get excited if I drive tipsy for 30 meters on an empty road. SIGH
True story:
At my brothers wedding, the best man seduced one of the bridesmaids. Not so unusual perhaps, but the tricky part was persuading the bridesmaid to do the deed up a tree, on a branch overhanging a lake in the hotel grounds. Apparently it took him an hour to convince her to climb the tree. To cap it all he had the keys to the bride and groom's hotel room on him so they had to wait for the couple to reappear at 3 AM to allow them to turn in.
In a bit of karma for all his misbehaviour, he now has three daughters.
Hahaha. I love stories of debauches. Especially right now
Only two things in life are certain: death and bridesmaids
No other pollster has the Greens above their usual 5%, but even if they were on 8%, Labour must not waver prioritising targeting Tory voters this term, there is no other viable strategy. If they lose the next election it's far, far more likely to be because they haven't won over enough Tory voters than because they've bled too many from the left.
Most of those Greens will go Labour in a GE, particularly in the marginals, whatever they say now.
The Green vote share in the seats of in NW Durham, Bury North, +South, Haywood and Middleton, Gedling, High Peak, Delyn and Stroud in 2019 were all larger than the Tory majority. That’s just the ones I could be bothered to check.
And in some of those seats, the candidates had close Green links (David Drew in Stroud, for example, sat as an independent on the district council and worked with the Greens not Labour).
We cannot assume that people will vote tactically just because it seems to others it’s the rational thing to do.
Starmer could do with a good ground game to squeeze Greens and LDs in Lab/Con marginals, as well as getting straight Con-Lab switchers. A difficult combination, and I cannot see it happening.
He doesn't inspire activists, and if he cannot inspire them then how can he inspire anyone else? At best people are half hearted about him.
Green candidates may well not stand in what are perceived to be Tory-Labour marginals. That did happen in 2017.
In which case will their voters vote at all?
Most would vote - though not all would vote Labour.
My point being that this idea ‘Green voters will vote Labour if it wasn’t for the Greens’ is a lazy assumption. Like ‘Brexit voters would vote Tory if it wasn’t for Farage.’
Yes, some of them might, but there’s a large body of evidence that even where their votes could have been used to help Labour win a seat they lost, they chose not to vote that way. That does not suggest they would vote Labour merely because there wasn’t a Green candidate.
On Look North this evening there was a rundown of which elections are being held in each part of the region. Turns out that in North Yorkshire the council elections have been suspended pending a review of the 2 tier council structure and the poor buggers have only got the PCC election to vote in. Expect a very low turnout.
Completely agree this is an outlier; but it's an outlier consistent with the trend that Labour are stuck and Tories have a tiny bit of upside potential looking at the trend.
However in general, just because events are events and generally don't on average play to the governing party's advantage, it seems to me that the longer this goes on the more tempting it must be for Boris to look for an opening for an election ASAP.
Because, 2017 debacle notwithstanding, with this set of Tories and this set of Labour politicians anyone reflecting on who is going to win extra votes in a short sharp campaign if it were now would say: Not Labour. The relevant charisma and wow factor is missing. Whatever their platform is, they have not even begun telling us.
Their only real slogan would be 'Time for a Change'. The Tories would do well to find an opening before that slogan could be effective.
Don't discount even 2022. 2023 is the latest from the perspective of now.
The best case scenario for Labour is that Boris calls a snap poll and Labour immediately switches to a telegenic unknown like Allin-Khan, and squeezes largest party, Jacinda-style.
Jacinda did not get largest party in 2017, the Nationals remained largest party, she only got in with Greens and NZ First support. She only won a majority for New Zealand Labour in 2020
I suspect our Labour Party would be happy with that. Rosena? Get her in!
"The only thing in Starmer’s favour is that we’re a little over three years away from the scheduled date of the next general election, that gives him time to turn things around."
Boris won't wait until the last minutes though. He'll do a Maggie and call the election in the fourth year (2023) IMO.
To take advantage of new boundaries he would have to wait until Autumn 2023.
Am I the only one who doesn't understand WHY it takes so long? Let's look at the case of Wales.
There are FOUR Boundary Commissioners for Wales (they are supplied with plenty of backroom help).
They have to redraw 31 seats. (Because Ynys Mon is protected and so its boundaries are fixed by the Irish Sea).
How on earth does this take THREE YEARS?
A competent individual should be able to get the job done in an afternoon with a penalized optimisation code.
All right, so there is a comments & consultation process ... but this is NOT three years work for four people.
God alone knows. AIUI the preference is always to avoid splitting wards when creating constituencies, so even with a complete redraw of the whole map they've only got to stitch together X-number of wards, each containing a known number of electors, to create seats of roughly the correct size.
Taking sensible account of terrain, the catchment areas of towns, and local government boundaries (you probably wouldn't want to create a seat that straddled more than two council areas) means that giving the effort proper consideration would take rather more than an afternoon, but you'd think they'd have no trouble in getting Wales's relatively modest allocation done in a fortnight. The consultation process could be used to iron out any kinks, and voila! Whole thing done in six months.
Completely agree this is an outlier; but it's an outlier consistent with the trend that Labour are stuck and Tories have a tiny bit of upside potential looking at the trend.
However in general, just because events are events and generally don't on average play to the governing party's advantage, it seems to me that the longer this goes on the more tempting it must be for Boris to look for an opening for an election ASAP.
Because, 2017 debacle notwithstanding, with this set of Tories and this set of Labour politicians anyone reflecting on who is going to win extra votes in a short sharp campaign if it were now would say: Not Labour. The relevant charisma and wow factor is missing. Whatever their platform is, they have not even begun telling us.
Their only real slogan would be 'Time for a Change'. The Tories would do well to find an opening before that slogan could be effective.
Don't discount even 2022. 2023 is the latest from the perspective of now.
The best case scenario for Labour is that Boris calls a snap poll and Labour immediately switches to a telegenic unknown like Allin-Khan, and squeezes largest party, Jacinda-style.
Allin-Khan is by a country mile the most interesting possible future leader. This'd be like Maggie with the Tories though. A complete change.
She's lovely. I'd marry her tomorrow. Think most of the heterosexual male population would too.
"The only thing in Starmer’s favour is that we’re a little over three years away from the scheduled date of the next general election, that gives him time to turn things around."
Boris won't wait until the last minutes though. He'll do a Maggie and call the election in the fourth year (2023) IMO.
To take advantage of new boundaries he would have to wait until Autumn 2023.
Am I the only one who doesn't understand WHY it takes so long? Let's look at the case of Wales.
There are FOUR Boundary Commissioners for Wales (they are supplied with plenty of backroom help).
They have to redraw 31 seats. (Because Ynys Mon is protected and so its boundaries are fixed by the Irish Sea).
How on earth does this take THREE YEARS?
A competent individual should be able to get the job done in an afternoon with a penalized optimisation code.
All right, so there is a comments & consultation process ... but this is NOT three years work for four people.
God alone knows. AIUI the preference is always to avoid splitting wards when creating constituencies, so even with a complete redraw of the whole map they've only got to stitch together X-number of wards, each containing a known number of electors, to create seats of roughly the correct size.
Taking sensible account of terrain, the catchment areas of towns, and local government boundaries (you probably wouldn't want to create a seat that straddled more than two council areas) means that giving the effort proper consideration would take rather more than an afternoon, but you'd think they'd have no trouble in getting Wales's relatively modest allocation done in a fortnight. The consultation process could be used to iron out any kinks, and voila! Whole thing done in six months.
A full time PhD takes three years, during which an individual is expected to master a complex discipline, carry out original research, write it up & get it published.
Joining together wards to form 31 roughly equal constituencies is a doddle by comparison. It really is not a hard problem.
But it apparently takes numerous fat-arsed civil servants the same length of time as a PhD -- probably with access to many more resources and costing vastly more money.
ok it was after midnight. The roads were deserted. And I only drive 30 yards to repark my car. BUT STILL
I AM THE LORD OF MISRULE
In all seriousness I wouldn’t have done that - drive 30 yards drunk at 1am - a year ago. A spirit of anarchy is abroad. The Rebel Yell echoes through the pine-stands
About 5 years ago I reparked our car after a wedding. I swear my wife is a worse driver tired than I am after and long night of drinking (caveat - alcohol may have altered my mental faculties... ). It was only in a hotel car park but still felt daring...
One wedding I went to, many years ago, I snorted coke off the bonnet of the happy couple’s hired Rolls Royce - in broad daylight, at 3pm, along with one of the bridesmaids. It was parked outside the very posh hotel, booked for the reception.
Then I took the bridesmaid back to my family house and fucked her on the washing machine (spin cycle)
I was a younger man then. These days I get excited if I drive tipsy for 30 meters on an empty road. SIGH
True story:
At my brothers wedding, the best man seduced one of the bridesmaids. Not so unusual perhaps, but the tricky part was persuading the bridesmaid to do the deed up a tree, on a branch overhanging a lake in the hotel grounds. Apparently it took him an hour to convince her to climb the tree. To cap it all he had the keys to the bride and groom's hotel room on him so they had to wait for the couple to reappear at 3 AM to allow them to turn in.
In a bit of karma for all his misbehaviour, he now has three daughters.
Hahaha. I love stories of debauches. Especially right now
Only two things in life are certain: death and bridesmaids
The same best man managed to get myself and a few others carried off to Marylebone nick on my stag night. He always knew how to push a stunt just a bit too far...
Visiting York. Maybe a cafe rather than a pub - I imagine that they are all booked up.
Every pub in North London is booked for weeks. So it’s like they never opened. Really tedious
It’s one reason I’m getting out of town. Apparently in Cornwall people are just WALKING INTO BARS
Yes, the pub I went to last night was purely walk in, but it does help to have twenty or so tables, spread over a quarter acre.
I am going again tommorow with different friends. Might wear my thermals though!
My local has a massive beer garden (by london standards). I just tried to book a table for 2, for 2 hours, at 4pm, on MONDAY AFTERNOON
No Dice. Nothing at all. Nothing for many days hence. Pff!
I'm astonished by these stories emanating from London. Is it where you move to when you become an alcoholic?
From what little I've seen around these parts trade is very brisk but the hostelries aren't booked solid for weeks: husband had no difficulty booking us in at our favourite for lunch a week Sunday. And there's no shortage of well-heeled people around these parts, and not all that many pubs and bars left (off the top of my head I think there are eight watering holes remaining in town, but one is boarded up and I can as yet neither confirm nor deny that three of the other seven have survived all these lockdowns.)
Then again, perhaps it's simply a function of many of them having little or no outside space? Only the case with one of our remaining seven, I think.
No other pollster has the Greens above their usual 5%, but even if they were on 8%, Labour must not waver prioritising targeting Tory voters this term, there is no other viable strategy. If they lose the next election it's far, far more likely to be because they haven't won over enough Tory voters than because they've bled too many from the left.
Most of those Greens will go Labour in a GE, particularly in the marginals, whatever they say now.
The Green vote share in the seats of in NW Durham, Bury North, +South, Haywood and Middleton, Gedling, High Peak, Delyn and Stroud in 2019 were all larger than the Tory majority. That’s just the ones I could be bothered to check.
And in some of those seats, the candidates had close Green links (David Drew in Stroud, for example, sat as an independent on the district council and worked with the Greens not Labour).
We cannot assume that people will vote tactically just because it seems to others it’s the rational thing to do.
Starmer could do with a good ground game to squeeze Greens and LDs in Lab/Con marginals, as well as getting straight Con-Lab switchers. A difficult combination, and I cannot see it happening.
He doesn't inspire activists, and if he cannot inspire them then how can he inspire anyone else? At best people are half hearted about him.
Green candidates may well not stand in what are perceived to be Tory-Labour marginals. That did happen in 2017.
In Preseli the Greens stood aside in 2017, and helped the campaign. Your acquaintance Philippa only missed out by 300 votes. If only the Libs and Plaid had stood down.... Ps Philippa is standing for Police Commissioner this year.
Completely agree this is an outlier; but it's an outlier consistent with the trend that Labour are stuck and Tories have a tiny bit of upside potential looking at the trend.
However in general, just because events are events and generally don't on average play to the governing party's advantage, it seems to me that the longer this goes on the more tempting it must be for Boris to look for an opening for an election ASAP.
Because, 2017 debacle notwithstanding, with this set of Tories and this set of Labour politicians anyone reflecting on who is going to win extra votes in a short sharp campaign if it were now would say: Not Labour. The relevant charisma and wow factor is missing. Whatever their platform is, they have not even begun telling us.
Their only real slogan would be 'Time for a Change'. The Tories would do well to find an opening before that slogan could be effective.
Don't discount even 2022. 2023 is the latest from the perspective of now.
The best case scenario for Labour is that Boris calls a snap poll and Labour immediately switches to a telegenic unknown like Allin-Khan, and squeezes largest party, Jacinda-style.
Allin-Khan is by a country mile the most interesting possible future leader. This'd be like Maggie with the Tories though. A complete change.
She's lovely. I'd marry her tomorrow. Think most of the heterosexual male population would too.
"The only thing in Starmer’s favour is that we’re a little over three years away from the scheduled date of the next general election, that gives him time to turn things around."
Boris won't wait until the last minutes though. He'll do a Maggie and call the election in the fourth year (2023) IMO.
To take advantage of new boundaries he would have to wait until Autumn 2023.
Am I the only one who doesn't understand WHY it takes so long? Let's look at the case of Wales.
There are FOUR Boundary Commissioners for Wales (they are supplied with plenty of backroom help).
They have to redraw 31 seats. (Because Ynys Mon is protected and so its boundaries are fixed by the Irish Sea).
How on earth does this take THREE YEARS?
A competent individual should be able to get the job done in an afternoon with a penalized optimisation code.
All right, so there is a comments & consultation process ... but this is NOT three years work for four people.
God alone knows. AIUI the preference is always to avoid splitting wards when creating constituencies, so even with a complete redraw of the whole map they've only got to stitch together X-number of wards, each containing a known number of electors, to create seats of roughly the correct size.
Taking sensible account of terrain, the catchment areas of towns, and local government boundaries (you probably wouldn't want to create a seat that straddled more than two council areas) means that giving the effort proper consideration would take rather more than an afternoon, but you'd think they'd have no trouble in getting Wales's relatively modest allocation done in a fortnight. The consultation process could be used to iron out any kinks, and voila! Whole thing done in six months.
A full time PhD takes three years, during which an individual is expected to master a complex discipline, carry out original research, write it up & get it published.
Joining together wards to form 31 roughly equal constituencies is a doddle by comparison. It really is not a hard problem.
But it apparently takes numerous fat-arsed civil servants the same length of time as a PhD -- probably with access to many more resources and costing vastly more money.
They’re not usually expected to get it published in the three years in History at least. In fact, it normally takes several more years to get it published unless it’s the university’s in-house publisher doing it.
ok it was after midnight. The roads were deserted. And I only drive 30 yards to repark my car. BUT STILL
I AM THE LORD OF MISRULE
In all seriousness I wouldn’t have done that - drive 30 yards drunk at 1am - a year ago. A spirit of anarchy is abroad. The Rebel Yell echoes through the pine-stands
About 5 years ago I reparked our car after a wedding. I swear my wife is a worse driver tired than I am after and long night of drinking (caveat - alcohol may have altered my mental faculties... ). It was only in a hotel car park but still felt daring...
One wedding I went to, many years ago, I snorted coke off the bonnet of the happy couple’s hired Rolls Royce - in broad daylight, at 3pm, along with one of the bridesmaids. It was parked outside the very posh hotel, booked for the reception.
Then I took the bridesmaid back to my family house and fucked her on the washing machine (spin cycle)
I was a younger man then. These days I get excited if I drive tipsy for 30 meters on an empty road. SIGH
You tumbled her on a washing machine?
Sounds like the sort of crazy thing old @SeanT would do.
Dunno about him, but I once co-hosted a very wild house party in Islington with quite famous people like **** ******* and ******* ******* all doing endless drugs in rather a surreal way. The surreality culminated when one of my housemates went into the bathroom to find a Bananarama being fucked on the tumbledryer
It ain't what you do, it's the place that you do it It ain't what you do, it's the place that you do it It ain't what you do, it's the place that you do it And that's what gets results
The reserved English gentleman in me prevents me from revealing WHICH Bananarama, of course
I can say there are rumours, to this day, the entwined paramours were not only on top of a rattling tumbledryer, but also using an electric toothbrush
A fair point. I too, find halitosis to be rather off-putting during moments of intimacy.
More seriously, THIS could destroy the Tories overnight
‘New Covid variants appear to be escaping vaccines, with the latest figures showing a doubling in cases of the South African mutation in the UK in the last month.’
‘The outbreak in London is thought to have been triggered by an individual travelling from a country in Africa to the UK in February, with cases spreading to members of their household and then to a care home in Lambeth, which is understood to have suffered at least 23 infections.’
Why was ANYONE allowed into the UK from Africa in February? If they did get in, why weren’t they isolated in a prison-like environment for 3 weeks until tested 9 times and proven safe? I don’t care if they were coming back to see a dying mother. Tough shit. I haven’t seen my mother since last summer. No one in the UK can go anywhere
This boils my blood. If all our lockdowns prove pointless because Boris couldn’t seal the borders I will vote Anything But Tory for the rest of recorded time
Completely agree this is an outlier; but it's an outlier consistent with the trend that Labour are stuck and Tories have a tiny bit of upside potential looking at the trend.
However in general, just because events are events and generally don't on average play to the governing party's advantage, it seems to me that the longer this goes on the more tempting it must be for Boris to look for an opening for an election ASAP.
Because, 2017 debacle notwithstanding, with this set of Tories and this set of Labour politicians anyone reflecting on who is going to win extra votes in a short sharp campaign if it were now would say: Not Labour. The relevant charisma and wow factor is missing. Whatever their platform is, they have not even begun telling us.
Their only real slogan would be 'Time for a Change'. The Tories would do well to find an opening before that slogan could be effective.
Don't discount even 2022. 2023 is the latest from the perspective of now.
The best case scenario for Labour is that Boris calls a snap poll and Labour immediately switches to a telegenic unknown like Allin-Khan, and squeezes largest party, Jacinda-style.
Allin-Khan is by a country mile the most interesting possible future leader. This'd be like Maggie with the Tories though. A complete change.
She's lovely. I'd marry her tomorrow. Think most of the heterosexual male population would too.
She looks OK.
Poor Rachel Reeves, cast aside like yesterday's paper...
"The only thing in Starmer’s favour is that we’re a little over three years away from the scheduled date of the next general election, that gives him time to turn things around."
Boris won't wait until the last minutes though. He'll do a Maggie and call the election in the fourth year (2023) IMO.
To take advantage of new boundaries he would have to wait until Autumn 2023.
Am I the only one who doesn't understand WHY it takes so long? Let's look at the case of Wales.
There are FOUR Boundary Commissioners for Wales (they are supplied with plenty of backroom help).
They have to redraw 31 seats. (Because Ynys Mon is protected and so its boundaries are fixed by the Irish Sea).
How on earth does this take THREE YEARS?
A competent individual should be able to get the job done in an afternoon with a penalized optimisation code.
All right, so there is a comments & consultation process ... but this is NOT three years work for four people.
God alone knows. AIUI the preference is always to avoid splitting wards when creating constituencies, so even with a complete redraw of the whole map they've only got to stitch together X-number of wards, each containing a known number of electors, to create seats of roughly the correct size.
Taking sensible account of terrain, the catchment areas of towns, and local government boundaries (you probably wouldn't want to create a seat that straddled more than two council areas) means that giving the effort proper consideration would take rather more than an afternoon, but you'd think they'd have no trouble in getting Wales's relatively modest allocation done in a fortnight. The consultation process could be used to iron out any kinks, and voila! Whole thing done in six months.
A full time PhD takes three years, during which an individual is expected to master a complex discipline, carry out original research, write it up & get it published.
Joining together wards to form 31 roughly equal constituencies is a doddle by comparison. It really is not a hard problem.
But it apparently takes numerous fat-arsed civil servants the same length of time as a PhD -- probably with access to many more resources and costing vastly more money.
They’re not usually expected to get it published in the three years in History at least. In fact, it normally takes several more years to get it published unless it’s the university’s in-house publisher doing it.
You'd be looking at unemployment in the sciences if you had not published most of it during the PhD years.
Agreed it is somewhat different in the humanities.
More seriously, THIS could destroy the Tories overnight
‘New Covid variants appear to be escaping vaccines, with the latest figures showing a doubling in cases of the South African mutation in the UK in the last month.’
‘The outbreak in London is thought to have been triggered by an individual travelling from a country in Africa to the UK in February, with cases spreading to members of their household and then to a care home in Lambeth, which is understood to have suffered at least 23 infections.’
Why was ANYONE allowed into the UK from Africa in February? If they did get in, why weren’t they isolated in a prison-like environment for 3 weeks until tested 9 times and proven safe? I don’t care if they were coming back to see a dying mother. Tough shit. I haven’t seen my mother since last summer. No one in the UK can go anywhere
This boils my blood. If all our lockdowns prove pointless because Boris couldn’t seal the borders I will vote Anything But Tory for the rest of recorded time
More seriously, THIS could destroy the Tories overnight
‘New Covid variants appear to be escaping vaccines, with the latest figures showing a doubling in cases of the South African mutation in the UK in the last month.’
‘The outbreak in London is thought to have been triggered by an individual travelling from a country in Africa to the UK in February, with cases spreading to members of their household and then to a care home in Lambeth, which is understood to have suffered at least 23 infections.’
Why was ANYONE allowed into the UK from Africa in February? If they did get in, why weren’t they isolated in a prison-like environment for 3 weeks until tested 9 times and proven safe? I don’t care if they were coming back to see a dying mother. Tough shit. I haven’t seen my mother since last summer. No one in the UK can go anywhere
This boils my blood. If all our lockdowns prove pointless because Boris couldn’t seal the borders I will vote Anything But Tory for the rest of recorded time
Completely agree this is an outlier; but it's an outlier consistent with the trend that Labour are stuck and Tories have a tiny bit of upside potential looking at the trend.
However in general, just because events are events and generally don't on average play to the governing party's advantage, it seems to me that the longer this goes on the more tempting it must be for Boris to look for an opening for an election ASAP.
Because, 2017 debacle notwithstanding, with this set of Tories and this set of Labour politicians anyone reflecting on who is going to win extra votes in a short sharp campaign if it were now would say: Not Labour. The relevant charisma and wow factor is missing. Whatever their platform is, they have not even begun telling us.
Their only real slogan would be 'Time for a Change'. The Tories would do well to find an opening before that slogan could be effective.
Don't discount even 2022. 2023 is the latest from the perspective of now.
The best case scenario for Labour is that Boris calls a snap poll and Labour immediately switches to a telegenic unknown like Allin-Khan, and squeezes largest party, Jacinda-style.
Allin-Khan is by a country mile the most interesting possible future leader. This'd be like Maggie with the Tories though. A complete change.
She's lovely. I'd marry her tomorrow. Think most of the heterosexual male population would too.
She is lovely. But don't forget she unforgivably plageurised Johnson with the Love Actually, Andrew Lincoln/ Keira Knightly scene, a week before Johnson did it.
More seriously, THIS could destroy the Tories overnight
‘New Covid variants appear to be escaping vaccines, with the latest figures showing a doubling in cases of the South African mutation in the UK in the last month.’
‘The outbreak in London is thought to have been triggered by an individual travelling from a country in Africa to the UK in February, with cases spreading to members of their household and then to a care home in Lambeth, which is understood to have suffered at least 23 infections.’
Why was ANYONE allowed into the UK from Africa in February? If they did get in, why weren’t they isolated in a prison-like environment for 3 weeks until tested 9 times and proven safe? I don’t care if they were coming back to see a dying mother. Tough shit. I haven’t seen my mother since last summer. No one in the UK can go anywhere
This boils my blood. If all our lockdowns prove pointless because Boris couldn’t seal the borders I will vote Anything But Tory for the rest of recorded time
Mid-term polls aren’t particularly useful, but I think there’s a lot of wishful thinking in this thread header.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the Greens get 8% at the next election.
There's a bit of misunderstanding going on about the Greens.
There's no one unified Green Party.
The Vegan Branch of the SNP probably won't put up a full slate of candidates in Scottish Westminster seats if there's a risk to the SNP, they only put up 22 candidates out of 59 seats in 2019.
Alison Johnson must not have got the memo.
The Greens ensuring Baroness Ruth flunked her way to a seat actually ensured the Greens got a list seat. If the SNP had won Ed Central then the Cons would have taken the lost seat not the Greens.
The Greens are of course useless currently. However they are working on something approaching a 21st Century mindset. Labour, in part operate on a 19th Century one.
If the Greens started freeing themselves from the really stupid people that they've always embraced then who knows.
Actual 'Green' policy things like climate change are being handled much better by the mainstream parties.
Correct - compare with Germany where they are currently on 20%+ .
ok it was after midnight. The roads were deserted. And I only drive 30 yards to repark my car. BUT STILL
I AM THE LORD OF MISRULE
In all seriousness I wouldn’t have done that - drive 30 yards drunk at 1am - a year ago. A spirit of anarchy is abroad. The Rebel Yell echoes through the pine-stands
About 5 years ago I reparked our car after a wedding. I swear my wife is a worse driver tired than I am after and long night of drinking (caveat - alcohol may have altered my mental faculties... ). It was only in a hotel car park but still felt daring...
One wedding I went to, many years ago, I snorted coke off the bonnet of the happy couple’s hired Rolls Royce - in broad daylight, at 3pm, along with one of the bridesmaids. It was parked outside the very posh hotel, booked for the reception.
Then I took the bridesmaid back to my family house and fucked her on the washing machine (spin cycle)
I was a younger man then. These days I get excited if I drive tipsy for 30 meters on an empty road. SIGH
You tumbled her on a washing machine?
Sounds like the sort of crazy thing old @SeanT would do.
Dunno about him, but I once co-hosted a very wild house party in Islington with quite famous people like **** ******* and ******* ******* all doing endless drugs in rather a surreal way. The surreality culminated when one of my housemates went into the bathroom to find a Bananarama being fucked on the tumbledryer
It ain't what you do, it's the place that you do it It ain't what you do, it's the place that you do it It ain't what you do, it's the place that you do it And that's what gets results
The reserved English gentleman in me prevents me from revealing WHICH Bananarama, of course
I can say there are rumours, to this day, the entwined paramours were not only on top of a rattling tumbledryer, but also using an electric toothbrush
A fair point. I too, find halitosis to be rather off-putting during moments of intimacy.
I rather liked Prof Tang's advice on dodging covid. Imagine everyone has garlic breath, because if you can inhale garlic at that distance you can inhale covid.
Completely agree this is an outlier; but it's an outlier consistent with the trend that Labour are stuck and Tories have a tiny bit of upside potential looking at the trend.
However in general, just because events are events and generally don't on average play to the governing party's advantage, it seems to me that the longer this goes on the more tempting it must be for Boris to look for an opening for an election ASAP.
Because, 2017 debacle notwithstanding, with this set of Tories and this set of Labour politicians anyone reflecting on who is going to win extra votes in a short sharp campaign if it were now would say: Not Labour. The relevant charisma and wow factor is missing. Whatever their platform is, they have not even begun telling us.
Their only real slogan would be 'Time for a Change'. The Tories would do well to find an opening before that slogan could be effective.
Don't discount even 2022. 2023 is the latest from the perspective of now.
The best case scenario for Labour is that Boris calls a snap poll and Labour immediately switches to a telegenic unknown like Allin-Khan, and squeezes largest party, Jacinda-style.
Allin-Khan is by a country mile the most interesting possible future leader. This'd be like Maggie with the Tories though. A complete change.
She's lovely. I'd marry her tomorrow. Think most of the heterosexual male population would too.
She looks OK.
Poor Rachel Reeves, cast aside like yesterday's paper...
No other pollster has the Greens above their usual 5%, but even if they were on 8%, Labour must not waver prioritising targeting Tory voters this term, there is no other viable strategy. If they lose the next election it's far, far more likely to be because they haven't won over enough Tory voters than because they've bled too many from the left.
Most of those Greens will go Labour in a GE, particularly in the marginals, whatever they say now.
The Green vote share in the seats of in NW Durham, Bury North, +South, Haywood and Middleton, Gedling, High Peak, Delyn and Stroud in 2019 were all larger than the Tory majority. That’s just the ones I could be bothered to check.
And in some of those seats, the candidates had close Green links (David Drew in Stroud, for example, sat as an independent on the district council and worked with the Greens not Labour).
We cannot assume that people will vote tactically just because it seems to others it’s the rational thing to do.
Starmer could do with a good ground game to squeeze Greens and LDs in Lab/Con marginals, as well as getting straight Con-Lab switchers. A difficult combination, and I cannot see it happening.
He doesn't inspire activists, and if he cannot inspire them then how can he inspire anyone else? At best people are half hearted about him.
Green candidates may well not stand in what are perceived to be Tory-Labour marginals. That did happen in 2017.
In Preseli the Greens stood aside in 2017, and helped the campaign. Your acquaintance Philippa only missed out by 300 votes. If only the Libs and Plaid had stood down.... Ps Philippa is standing for Police Commissioner this year.
Completely agree this is an outlier; but it's an outlier consistent with the trend that Labour are stuck and Tories have a tiny bit of upside potential looking at the trend.
However in general, just because events are events and generally don't on average play to the governing party's advantage, it seems to me that the longer this goes on the more tempting it must be for Boris to look for an opening for an election ASAP.
Because, 2017 debacle notwithstanding, with this set of Tories and this set of Labour politicians anyone reflecting on who is going to win extra votes in a short sharp campaign if it were now would say: Not Labour. The relevant charisma and wow factor is missing. Whatever their platform is, they have not even begun telling us.
Their only real slogan would be 'Time for a Change'. The Tories would do well to find an opening before that slogan could be effective.
Don't discount even 2022. 2023 is the latest from the perspective of now.
The best case scenario for Labour is that Boris calls a snap poll and Labour immediately switches to a telegenic unknown like Allin-Khan, and squeezes largest party, Jacinda-style.
Allin-Khan is by a country mile the most interesting possible future leader. This'd be like Maggie with the Tories though. A complete change.
She's lovely. I'd marry her tomorrow. Think most of the heterosexual male population would too.
She looks OK.
Poor Rachel Reeves, cast aside like yesterday's paper...
Fear not! Rachel looks more OK than Rosena.
RR is often being interviewed on TV.
Starmer obviously feels that she is one of the better performers in his Shad Cab.
Completely agree this is an outlier; but it's an outlier consistent with the trend that Labour are stuck and Tories have a tiny bit of upside potential looking at the trend.
However in general, just because events are events and generally don't on average play to the governing party's advantage, it seems to me that the longer this goes on the more tempting it must be for Boris to look for an opening for an election ASAP.
Because, 2017 debacle notwithstanding, with this set of Tories and this set of Labour politicians anyone reflecting on who is going to win extra votes in a short sharp campaign if it were now would say: Not Labour. The relevant charisma and wow factor is missing. Whatever their platform is, they have not even begun telling us.
Their only real slogan would be 'Time for a Change'. The Tories would do well to find an opening before that slogan could be effective.
Don't discount even 2022. 2023 is the latest from the perspective of now.
The best case scenario for Labour is that Boris calls a snap poll and Labour immediately switches to a telegenic unknown like Allin-Khan, and squeezes largest party, Jacinda-style.
Allin-Khan is by a country mile the most interesting possible future leader. This'd be like Maggie with the Tories though. A complete change.
She's lovely. I'd marry her tomorrow. Think most of the heterosexual male population would too.
She looks OK.
Poor Rachel Reeves, cast aside like yesterday's paper...
Fear not! Rachel looks more OK than Rosena.
RR is often being interviewed on TV.
Starmer obviously feels that she is one of the better performers in his Shad Cab.
No other pollster has the Greens above their usual 5%, but even if they were on 8%, Labour must not waver prioritising targeting Tory voters this term, there is no other viable strategy. If they lose the next election it's far, far more likely to be because they haven't won over enough Tory voters than because they've bled too many from the left.
Most of those Greens will go Labour in a GE, particularly in the marginals, whatever they say now.
The Green vote share in the seats of in NW Durham, Bury North, +South, Haywood and Middleton, Gedling, High Peak, Delyn and Stroud in 2019 were all larger than the Tory majority. That’s just the ones I could be bothered to check.
And in some of those seats, the candidates had close Green links (David Drew in Stroud, for example, sat as an independent on the district council and worked with the Greens not Labour).
We cannot assume that people will vote tactically just because it seems to others it’s the rational thing to do.
Starmer could do with a good ground game to squeeze Greens and LDs in Lab/Con marginals, as well as getting straight Con-Lab switchers. A difficult combination, and I cannot see it happening.
He doesn't inspire activists, and if he cannot inspire them then how can he inspire anyone else? At best people are half hearted about him.
Green candidates may well not stand in what are perceived to be Tory-Labour marginals. That did happen in 2017.
In which case will their voters vote at all?
Most would vote - though not all would vote Labour.
My point being that this idea ‘Green voters will vote Labour if it wasn’t for the Greens’ is a lazy assumption. Like ‘Brexit voters would vote Tory if it wasn’t for Farage.’
Yes, some of them might, but there’s a large body of evidence that even where their votes could have been used to help Labour win a seat they lost, they chose not to vote that way. That does not suggest they would vote Labour merely because there wasn’t a Green candidate.
I agree with that - and have never thought that more than circa 70% would vote Labour. Perhaps 20% would vote LD - with 5% - 10% switching to the Tories. Others would abstain.
We have a potentially dangerous variant from India, but I don't think India has been put on the red list yet?
No, it hasn’t. Nor has Pakistan. It’s insane.
The entire world should be on the red list. Zero travel for anyone. No one gets in, no one gets out, unless you have an overriding reason which justifies endangering the nation. Even then you should be tested 47 times
So this might knock off 5% of GDP permanently? So be it. Another wave and another lockdown will be WORSE
"The only thing in Starmer’s favour is that we’re a little over three years away from the scheduled date of the next general election, that gives him time to turn things around."
Boris won't wait until the last minutes though. He'll do a Maggie and call the election in the fourth year (2023) IMO.
To take advantage of new boundaries he would have to wait until Autumn 2023.
Am I the only one who doesn't understand WHY it takes so long? Let's look at the case of Wales.
There are FOUR Boundary Commissioners for Wales (they are supplied with plenty of backroom help).
They have to redraw 31 seats. (Because Ynys Mon is protected and so its boundaries are fixed by the Irish Sea).
How on earth does this take THREE YEARS?
A competent individual should be able to get the job done in an afternoon with a penalized optimisation code.
All right, so there is a comments & consultation process ... but this is NOT three years work for four people.
God alone knows. AIUI the preference is always to avoid splitting wards when creating constituencies, so even with a complete redraw of the whole map they've only got to stitch together X-number of wards, each containing a known number of electors, to create seats of roughly the correct size.
Taking sensible account of terrain, the catchment areas of towns, and local government boundaries (you probably wouldn't want to create a seat that straddled more than two council areas) means that giving the effort proper consideration would take rather more than an afternoon, but you'd think they'd have no trouble in getting Wales's relatively modest allocation done in a fortnight. The consultation process could be used to iron out any kinks, and voila! Whole thing done in six months.
A full time PhD takes three years, during which an individual is expected to master a complex discipline, carry out original research, write it up & get it published.
Joining together wards to form 31 roughly equal constituencies is a doddle by comparison. It really is not a hard problem.
But it apparently takes numerous fat-arsed civil servants the same length of time as a PhD -- probably with access to many more resources and costing vastly more money.
I whiled away an afternoon re-distributing Wales to prove my point in an argument on here. Only to discover later that they'd ringfenced Ynys Mon! It really didn't take more than a few hours using EC maps. No software needed. Only a few areas are not very obvious at all.
Comments
Christ, even I'm having a day out tomorrow.
I think most Green votes are first and foremost anti-Tory votes.
We have to bear in mind, above all, that Labour's remaining supporter base skews very heavily towards the young, and the younger voters become the more likely they are to have idealistic (and typically hard left) beliefs and to stick with them. Now that the Corbynite tendency within Labour has been dethroned, there must at least be a chance that they'll decamp to the Greens and refuse to come back?
Considerably less than 100% of voters do so tactically. If they did then it's plausible to argue that nobody would vote Lib Dem in 19 out of every 20 Westminster constituencies, and their GE vote share would be about 0.5%.
By "takeaway license" I'd presume they mean a license for off trade. In normal circumstances if a premise isn't licensed for off trade and people are taking alcohol away then that's a problem they'd be expected to clamp down on.
But quite frankly now all on licenses really ought to be considered off ones in my opinion. No idea if they've changed the law on that though.
I think most Green votes are first and foremost ‘none of the above’ votes. Brexit Party for the left. If you wanted to be ‘anti-Tory’ in those seats, you would have voted Labour.
Anabobizana - I think I addressed your point below.
@floater Please elaborate. I did incorrectly question the veracity of a post the other day, I don't think it was yours. I'm pretty sure I'd not have suggested you were a liar anyway.
I’ve just arranged to leave London, go to Dorset, pootle around, then go on and see family in Cornwall. Staying several nights away from home. I might even HUG MY MUM FOR THE FIRST TIME IN EIGHT MONTHS
Sue me
Well let's how it looks in a few months. Things can change.
Why are the police bothering this guy? Can you explain what he’s done wrong?
Last night I drove COMPLETELY PISSED
HAHAHAHAHAHA
ok it was after midnight. The roads were deserted. And I only drive 30 yards to repark my car. BUT STILL
I AM THE LORD OF MISRULE
In all seriousness I wouldn’t have done that - drive 30 yards drunk at 1am - a year ago. A spirit of anarchy is abroad. The Rebel Yell echoes through the pine-stands
As it stands today, it looks like a comfortable Johnsonian Conservatives win, but if Johnson has another mare of a few months, as he his from late spring to December last year, and it occurs between now and the next election he could be in a spot of bother. Remember too, since mid December and the vaccine roll out, the news agenda until this week was wholly positive to the Johnson cause. That has changed this week and the news has been more Boris neutral (which is why I am more surprised by the YouGov than the Survation). I say Boris neutral as I am convinced the Cameron saga is associated with the Blair era rather than the Johnson era. If the Yougov is true it might be a case of the captives thanking their captors for their release this week.
And then there is the economy to consider. Will it play out as a three year post Brexit and post pandemic spending boom, as Philip Thompson asserts or will it be somewhat less impressive?
Starmer is no Blair, but neither is he an IDS or a Corbyn. Maybe he is Michael Howard, and the time is not quite right, but as I keep saying, Starmer doesn't scare the horses, and Governments lose elections. Besides which, after five years of Johnson, we might decide we want a Prime Minister who is somewhat less erratic.
However in general, just because events are events and generally don't on average play to the governing party's advantage, it seems to me that the longer this goes on the more tempting it must be for Boris to look for an opening for an election ASAP.
Because, 2017 debacle notwithstanding, with this set of Tories and this set of Labour politicians anyone reflecting on who is going to win extra votes in a short sharp campaign if it were now would say: Not Labour. The relevant charisma and wow factor is missing. Whatever their platform is, they have not even begun telling us.
Their only real slogan would be 'Time for a Change'. The Tories would do well to find an opening before that slogan could be effective.
Don't discount even 2022. 2023 is the latest from the perspective of now.
Minecraft! Ya sistah
No polis gun stop me bruv me stayin with fam in Truro!!
But if you have something that reverses ageing, please let me know what it is and where to get some.
In any case, hope you have a good day out!
One wedding I went to, many years ago, I snorted coke off the bonnet of the happy couple’s hired Rolls Royce - in broad daylight, at 3pm, along with one of the bridesmaids. It was parked outside the very posh hotel, booked for the reception.
Then I took the bridesmaid back to my family house and fucked her on the washing machine (spin cycle)
I was a younger man then. These days I get excited if I drive tipsy for 30 meters on an empty road. SIGH
Sounds like the sort of crazy thing old @SeanT would do.
Every pub in North London is booked for weeks. So it’s like they never opened. Really tedious
It’s one reason I’m getting out of town. Apparently in Cornwall people are just WALKING INTO BARS
There are FOUR Boundary Commissioners for Wales (they are supplied with plenty of backroom help).
They have to redraw 31 seats. (Because Ynys Mon is protected and so its boundaries are fixed by the Irish Sea).
How on earth does this take THREE YEARS?
A competent individual should be able to get the job done in an afternoon with a penalized optimisation code.
All right, so there is a comments & consultation process ... but this is NOT three years work for four people.
He doesn't inspire activists, and if he cannot inspire them then how can he inspire anyone else? At best people are half hearted about him.
But the important thing for BoJo fans who want to count their chickens- this was ICM in early July 1992;
Cons 45%
Lab 36%
And this was IPSOS-MORI in September 2007;
Lab 44%
Cons 31%
Cherry-picked? A bit, but those results weren't out of line with others at those times.
Events, dear boy. Events.
Seat: Con, Lab, Green
Stroud: 47.9%, 42.1%, 7.5%
Bury North: 46.2%, 46%, 1.7%
Heywood and Middleton: 43.1%, 41.7%, 2.6%
Blyth Valley: 42.7%, 40.9%, 2.8%
High Peak: 45.9%, 44.8%, 2.1%
Bury South: 43.8%, 43%, 1.7%
Kensington: 38.3%, 38%, 1.2%
Gedling: 45.5%, 44.1%, 2.2%
Bolton North East: 45.4%, 44.5%, 1.6%
Stoke-On-Trent Central: 45.4%, 43.3%, 2.6%
Chipping Barnet: 44.7%, 42.6%, 2.2%
North West Durham: 41.9%, 39.5%, 2.5%
I am going again tommorow with different friends. Might wear my thermals though!
No Dice. Nothing at all. Nothing for many days hence. Pff!
Have you considered going south of the river ?
Believe it or not I actually reined that anecdote in, to save the blushes of OGH and TSE. The full debauchery is too extreme even for post-lagershed PB
It ain't what you do, it's the place that you do it
It ain't what you do, it's the place that you do it
And that's what gets results
*visibly*
Taking sensible account of terrain, the catchment areas of towns, and local government boundaries (you probably wouldn't want to create a seat that straddled more than two council areas) means that giving the effort proper consideration would take rather more than an afternoon, but you'd think they'd have no trouble in getting Wales's relatively modest allocation done in a fortnight. The consultation process could be used to iron out any kinks, and voila! Whole thing done in six months.
At my brothers wedding, the best man seduced one of the bridesmaids. Not so unusual perhaps, but the tricky part was persuading the bridesmaid to do the deed up a tree, on a branch overhanging a lake in the hotel grounds. Apparently it took him an hour to convince her to climb the tree. To cap it all he had the keys to the bride and groom's hotel room on him so they had to wait for the couple to reappear at 3 AM to allow them to turn in.
In a bit of karma for all his misbehaviour, he now has three daughters.
I can say there are rumours, to this day, the entwined paramours were not only on top of a rattling tumbledryer, but also using an electric toothbrush
Only two things in life are certain: death and bridesmaids
Yes, some of them might, but there’s a large body of evidence that even where their votes could have been used to help Labour win a seat they lost, they chose not to vote that way. That does not suggest they would vote Labour merely because there wasn’t a Green candidate.
Hic!
Joining together wards to form 31 roughly equal constituencies is a doddle by comparison. It really is not a hard problem.
But it apparently takes numerous fat-arsed civil servants the same length of time as a PhD -- probably with access to many more resources and costing vastly more money.
From what little I've seen around these parts trade is very brisk but the hostelries aren't booked solid for weeks: husband had no difficulty booking us in at our favourite for lunch a week Sunday. And there's no shortage of well-heeled people around these parts, and not all that many pubs and bars left (off the top of my head I think there are eight watering holes remaining in town, but one is boarded up and I can as yet neither confirm nor deny that three of the other seven have survived all these lockdowns.)
Then again, perhaps it's simply a function of many of them having little or no outside space? Only the case with one of our remaining seven, I think.
Ps Philippa is standing for Police Commissioner this year.
‘New Covid variants appear to be escaping vaccines, with the latest figures showing a doubling in cases of the South African mutation in the UK in the last month.’
‘The outbreak in London is thought to have been triggered by an individual travelling from a country in Africa to the UK in February, with cases spreading to members of their household and then to a care home in Lambeth, which is understood to have suffered at least 23 infections.’
Why was ANYONE allowed into the UK from Africa in February? If they did get in, why weren’t they isolated in a prison-like environment for 3 weeks until tested 9 times and proven safe? I don’t care if they were coming back to see a dying mother. Tough shit. I haven’t seen my mother since last summer. No one in the UK can go anywhere
This boils my blood. If all our lockdowns prove pointless because Boris couldn’t seal the borders I will vote Anything But Tory for the rest of recorded time
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/16/fears-covid-variants-escaping-vaccines-cases-south-african-strain/
Agreed it is somewhat different in the humanities.
Were any of them admitted
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/15/garlic-breath-distancing-expert-suggests-new-way-stay-covid-safe
I can imagine a few complaints incoming.
Starmer obviously feels that she is one of the better performers in his Shad Cab.
The entire world should be on the red list. Zero travel for anyone. No one gets in, no one gets out, unless you have an overriding reason which justifies endangering the nation. Even then you should be tested 47 times
So this might knock off 5% of GDP permanently? So be it. Another wave and another lockdown will be WORSE
BREAKING: India reports 233,757 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 1,338 new deaths
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1383127597236764676?s=19
Only to discover later that they'd ringfenced Ynys Mon!
It really didn't take more than a few hours using EC maps. No software needed.
Only a few areas are not very obvious at all.