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If it looks like an outlier, walks like an outlier, and talks like an outlier then it probably is an

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  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,689
    Leon said:

    Bit bored of lockdown now. TBH

    There isn't a lockdown now.

    Christ, even I'm having a day out tomorrow.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,315
    ydoethur said:

    The Green vote share in the seats of in NW Durham, Bury North, +South, Haywood and Middleton, Gedling, High Peak, Delyn and Stroud in 2019 were all larger than the Tory majority. That’s just the ones I could be bothered to check.

    And in some of those seats, the candidates had close Green links (David Drew in Stroud, for example, sat as an independent on the district council and worked with the Greens not Labour).

    We cannot assume that people will vote tactically just because it seems to others it’s the rational thing to do.
    In several of those, though, that was only obvious after the event of the seat falling to the Tories.

    I think most Green votes are first and foremost anti-Tory votes.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,630
    ydoethur said:

    I think my question would be, if other vaccines are available why give them AZ if there is a risk involved in the latter?

    Which is why (for example) the risk vector for under 30s now we have Moderna is different from that for over 50s two months ago.
    I think we were right to use AZ when we did and how we did. I also think we should now be pivoting away until they can ‘fix’ the problem as we have access to other vaccines with seemingly fewer issues.
  • As I said, I'll be curious to see it.

    But people vote for a party not against it, so being deeply more unpopular certainly could be a factor but I'd rather be 20% more gross popular and 2% less net than the other way around.
    You've never heard of tactical voting?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    ydoethur said:

    The Green vote share in the seats of in NW Durham, Bury North, +South, Haywood and Middleton, Gedling, High Peak, Delyn and Stroud in 2019 were all larger than the Tory majority. That’s just the ones I could be bothered to check.

    And in some of those seats, the candidates had close Green links (David Drew in Stroud, for example, sat as an independent on the district council and worked with the Greens not Labour).

    We cannot assume that people will vote tactically just because it seems to others it’s the rational thing to do.
    @Casino_Royale will probably be vindicated, but I agree that it isn't certain.

    We have to bear in mind, above all, that Labour's remaining supporter base skews very heavily towards the young, and the younger voters become the more likely they are to have idealistic (and typically hard left) beliefs and to stick with them. Now that the Corbynite tendency within Labour has been dethroned, there must at least be a chance that they'll decamp to the Greens and refuse to come back?

    Considerably less than 100% of voters do so tactically. If they did then it's plausible to argue that nobody would vote Lib Dem in 19 out of every 20 Westminster constituencies, and their GE vote share would be about 0.5%.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    There isn't a lockdown now.

    Christ, even I'm having a day out tomorrow.
    Enjoy it! Pub?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Floater said:

    You do not need a takeaway license as I understand it - so what law has he breached?

    The police said it was for not having a takeaway license - this is why I have asked him to get them to tell him exactly which law he has broken
    Check your son's license. Some premises are licensed for on-trade only, others for on and off trade.

    By "takeaway license" I'd presume they mean a license for off trade. In normal circumstances if a premise isn't licensed for off trade and people are taking alcohol away then that's a problem they'd be expected to clamp down on.

    But quite frankly now all on licenses really ought to be considered off ones in my opinion. No idea if they've changed the law on that though.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,555
    edited April 2021

    In several of those, though, that was only obvious after the event of the seat falling to the Tories.

    I think most Green votes are first and foremost anti-Tory votes.
    Certainly not in the case of Stroud, where it is a Labour/Tory swing seat and has been for 20 years. The others with the possible exception of NW Durham were all known to be in play as well.

    I think most Green votes are first and foremost ‘none of the above’ votes. Brexit Party for the left. If you wanted to be ‘anti-Tory’ in those seats, you would have voted Labour.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    I think we were right to use AZ when we did and how we did. I also think we should now be pivoting away until they can ‘fix’ the problem as we have access to other vaccines with seemingly fewer issues.
    Fair point but the only caveat is the emerging evidence that AZ offers better protection against variants (it’s a less precise defence)
  • kinabalu said:

    I sense that you are wavering - so that's one. And you're surely not alone.
    I am not wavering, though I see Labour members are lauding Blair's success and of course I have only voted Labour twice in my 77 years, and both of those were for Blair
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,482
    Floater said:

    I just realised this was the poster who called me a liar just the other day for linking to a story clearly viewable on multiple MSM sites.

    Shrugs shoulders
    I presume that you actually mean me rather than Opinium?

    Anabobizana - I think I addressed your point below.

    @floater Please elaborate. I did incorrectly question the veracity of a post the other day, I don't think it was yours. I'm pretty sure I'd not have suggested you were a liar anyway.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    You've never heard of tactical voting?
    I've also heard of the Loch Ness Monster, its about as real most of the time..
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,630

    Fair point but the only caveat is the emerging evidence that AZ offers better protection against variants (it’s a less precise defence)
    True, but that is tentative right now, whereas the clotting issue is now pretty firmed up, and more of an issue in the younger.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    Fair point but the only caveat is the emerging evidence that AZ offers better protection against variants (it’s a less precise defence)
    Hmm, I've read the evidence and I'm not convinced. We don't know enough about t-cell cross immunity. I think a better designed mRNA or viral protein vaccine could achieve the same thing. We should be investing our cash in both of those mechanisms.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810

    I am not wavering, though I see Labour members are lauding Blair's success and of course I have only voted Labour twice in my 77 years, and both of those were for Blair
    Oh.
    Well let's how it looks in a few months. Things can change.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    edited April 2021
    Omnium said:

    I presume that you actually mean me rather than Opinium?

    Anabobizana - I think I addressed your point below.

    @floater Please elaborate. I did incorrectly question the veracity of a post the other day, I don't think it was yours. I'm pretty sure I'd not have suggested you were a liar anyway.
    Unless I have missed it, no you haven’t addressed my point.

    Why are the police bothering this guy? Can you explain what he’s done wrong?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,555
    edited April 2021

    And just made 40,000 posts

    Here’s to the next 40,000 Big-G!🥂
  • kinabalu said:

    Oh.
    Well let's how it looks in a few months. Things can change.
    They do indeed
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,677
    HYUFD said:

    New German poll has the CDU/CSU up to 38% if CSU leader Soder is their chancellor candidate with the SPD on 19%, the Greens on 16%, the AfD on 11% and the FDP on 8%.

    With CDU leader Laschet however the CDU/CSU are only on 27% with the SPD on 23%, the Greens on 20%, the AfD on 11% and the FDP on 10%

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1383102918463778822?s=20

    A curious feature of that poll is the SPD leapfroggiong the Greens in both variants. They're 6-7% behind in every other poll I suspect this poll, too, is something of an outlier.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    MaxPB said:

    Hmm, I've read the evidence and I'm not convinced. We don't know enough about t-cell cross immunity. I think a better designed mRNA or viral protein vaccine could achieve the same thing. We should be investing our cash in both of those mechanisms.
    Absolutely agreed. Maybe because I got AZ I’m biased!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806
    Another confession

    Last night I drove COMPLETELY PISSED

    HAHAHAHAHAHA

    ok it was after midnight. The roads were deserted. And I only drive 30 yards to repark my car. BUT STILL

    I AM THE LORD OF MISRULE

    In all seriousness I wouldn’t have done that - drive 30 yards drunk at 1am - a year ago. A spirit of anarchy is abroad. The Rebel Yell echoes through the pine-stands
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,318
    edited April 2021

    Three years is a long time in politics, a very long time. Nonetheless, I'm going to stick my neck out and say that it's not long enough for Sir Keir to turn things round. He's dull as ditchwater, he's an awful speaker, he doesn't seem to have any coherent position on anything, and Labour is starting from a very bad position electorally, organisationally, and in terms of public perception following the Corbyn years.

    Even all that might not be irretrievable if it weren't for the fact that his shadow cabinet is even worse. At least one can envisage Starmer as PM without difficulty, but even Labour party members don't seem to think much of the Shadow Chancellor, Shadow Health Sec or Shadow Home Sec, if indeed they've noticed them at all.

    It's a hell of a lot to turn round, and as things stand he seems to be losing ground, not gaining it.

    For someone with an astute political sixth sense, and with such an analytical track record as yourself, I am surprised you aren't considering how volatlle or even soft three or four percent of the Tory vote has been over the last year. That could make a big difference, come the next election.

    As it stands today, it looks like a comfortable Johnsonian Conservatives win, but if Johnson has another mare of a few months, as he his from late spring to December last year, and it occurs between now and the next election he could be in a spot of bother. Remember too, since mid December and the vaccine roll out, the news agenda until this week was wholly positive to the Johnson cause. That has changed this week and the news has been more Boris neutral (which is why I am more surprised by the YouGov than the Survation). I say Boris neutral as I am convinced the Cameron saga is associated with the Blair era rather than the Johnson era. If the Yougov is true it might be a case of the captives thanking their captors for their release this week.

    And then there is the economy to consider. Will it play out as a three year post Brexit and post pandemic spending boom, as Philip Thompson asserts or will it be somewhat less impressive?

    Starmer is no Blair, but neither is he an IDS or a Corbyn. Maybe he is Michael Howard, and the time is not quite right, but as I keep saying, Starmer doesn't scare the horses, and Governments lose elections. Besides which, after five years of Johnson, we might decide we want a Prime Minister who is somewhat less erratic.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810
    Leon said:

    HAHAHAHAHA IN YOUR FACE COVID19

    I’ve just arranged to leave London, go to Dorset, pootle around, then go on and see family in Cornwall. Staying several nights away from home. I might even HUG MY MUM FOR THE FIRST TIME IN EIGHT MONTHS

    Sue me

    And there are people breaking the Rule of Six now. I can see some from my window. Plucky types. Hats off.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,030
    edited April 2021
    ydoethur said:

    Here’s to the next 40,000 Big-G!🥂
    Thank you and I must remember to keep taking my pills !!!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,689

    Enjoy it! Pub?
    Visiting York. Maybe a cafe rather than a pub - I imagine that they are all booked up.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,630
    Leon said:

    Another confession

    Last night I drove COMPLETELY PISSED

    HAHAHAHAHAHA

    ok it was after midnight. The roads were deserted. And I only drive 30 yards to repark my car. BUT STILL

    I AM THE LORD OF MISRULE

    In all seriousness I wouldn’t have done that - drive 30 yards drunk at 1am - a year ago. A spirit of anarchy is abroad. The Rebel Yell echoes through the pine-stands

    About 5 years ago I reparked our car after a wedding. I swear my wife is a worse driver tired than I am after and long night of drinking (caveat - alcohol may have altered my mental faculties... ). It was only in a hotel car park but still felt daring...
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    Completely agree this is an outlier; but it's an outlier consistent with the trend that Labour are stuck and Tories have a tiny bit of upside potential looking at the trend.

    However in general, just because events are events and generally don't on average play to the governing party's advantage, it seems to me that the longer this goes on the more tempting it must be for Boris to look for an opening for an election ASAP.

    Because, 2017 debacle notwithstanding, with this set of Tories and this set of Labour politicians anyone reflecting on who is going to win extra votes in a short sharp campaign if it were now would say: Not Labour. The relevant charisma and wow factor is missing. Whatever their platform is, they have not even begun telling us.

    Their only real slogan would be 'Time for a Change'. The Tories would do well to find an opening before that slogan could be effective.

    Don't discount even 2022. 2023 is the latest from the perspective of now.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    @Casino_Royale will probably be vindicated, but I agree that it isn't certain.

    We have to bear in mind, above all, that Labour's remaining supporter base skews very heavily towards the young, and the younger voters become the more likely they are to have idealistic (and typically hard left) beliefs and to stick with them. Now that the Corbynite tendency within Labour has been dethroned, there must at least be a chance that they'll decamp to the Greens and refuse to come back?

    Considerably less than 100% of voters do so tactically. If they did then it's plausible to argue that nobody would vote Lib Dem in 19 out of every 20 Westminster constituencies, and their GE vote share would be about 0.5%.
    I would be surprised to see the Greens exceed 3% in a GE. In the aftermatn of the 2015 election it was reasonable to suggest that Green candidates - in what turned out to be key marginals - were decisive in producing Cameron's small majority rather than another hung Parliament. There were circa 8 seats in which the Green vote significantly exceeded the Tory majority that year - eg Gower - Plymouth Sutton & Devonport - Brighton Kemptown. Their candidated stood down in 2019 with Labour gaining several of those seats. Much of this is hindsight though - in that marginal seats are not always obvious in advance.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,689
    Leon said:

    HAHAHAHAHA IN YOUR FACE COVID19

    I’ve just arranged to leave London, go to Dorset, pootle around, then go on and see family in Cornwall. Staying several nights away from home. I might even HUG MY MUM FOR THE FIRST TIME IN EIGHT MONTHS

    Sue me

    Like I said, there's no lockdown.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806
    kinabalu said:

    And there are people breaking the Rule of Six now. I can see some from my window. Plucky types. Hats off.
    I’m down with the KIDZ. Monster Jam! I’m bare wicked innit bro

    Minecraft! Ya sistah

    No polis gun stop me bruv me stayin with fam in Truro!!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,555
    edited April 2021

    @Casino_Royale will probably be vindicated, but I agree that it isn't certain.

    We have to bear in mind, above all, that Labour's remaining supporter base skews very heavily towards the young, and the younger voters become the more likely they are to have idealistic (and typically hard left) beliefs and to stick with them. Now that the Corbynite tendency within Labour has been dethroned, there must at least be a chance that they'll decamp to the Greens and refuse to come back?

    Considerably less than 100% of voters do so tactically. If they did then it's plausible to argue that nobody would vote Lib Dem in 19 out of every 20 Westminster constituencies, and their GE vote share would be about 0.5%.
    I’m sure you can’t mean what you seem to have said there.

    But if you have something that reverses ageing, please let me know what it is and where to get some.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    MaxPB said:

    Hmm, I've read the evidence and I'm not convinced. We don't know enough about t-cell cross immunity. I think a better designed mRNA or viral protein vaccine could achieve the same thing. We should be investing our cash in both of those mechanisms.
    I would assume that Novavax covers the second base, and the new research and production facility being built in Oxfordshire the first, if it can be purposed to manufacture e.g. Moderna under licence? Although granted I've no idea how close it is to being operational.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Visiting York. Maybe a cafe rather than a pub - I imagine that they are all booked up.
    You might be able to find one that does walk-ins. I’m thankful that my local(ish) does walk-ins *only*. Landlord says he can’t be faffed with booking and therefore the whole experience is more pub-like.

    In any case, hope you have a good day out!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806

    About 5 years ago I reparked our car after a wedding. I swear my wife is a worse driver tired than I am after and long night of drinking (caveat - alcohol may have altered my mental faculties... ). It was only in a hotel car park but still felt daring...

    One wedding I went to, many years ago, I snorted coke off the bonnet of the happy couple’s hired Rolls Royce - in broad daylight, at 3pm, along with one of the bridesmaids. It was parked outside the very posh hotel, booked for the reception.

    Then I took the bridesmaid back to my family house and fucked her on the washing machine (spin cycle)

    I was a younger man then. These days I get excited if I drive tipsy for 30 meters on an empty road. SIGH
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    algarkirk said:

    Completely agree this is an outlier; but it's an outlier consistent with the trend that Labour are stuck and Tories have a tiny bit of upside potential looking at the trend.

    However in general, just because events are events and generally don't on average play to the governing party's advantage, it seems to me that the longer this goes on the more tempting it must be for Boris to look for an opening for an election ASAP.

    Because, 2017 debacle notwithstanding, with this set of Tories and this set of Labour politicians anyone reflecting on who is going to win extra votes in a short sharp campaign if it were now would say: Not Labour. The relevant charisma and wow factor is missing. Whatever their platform is, they have not even begun telling us.

    Their only real slogan would be 'Time for a Change'. The Tories would do well to find an opening before that slogan could be effective.

    Don't discount even 2022. 2023 is the latest from the perspective of now.

    The best case scenario for Labour is that Boris calls a snap poll and Labour immediately switches to a telegenic unknown like Allin-Khan, and squeezes largest party, Jacinda-style.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,275

    Yes, there’s not much difference between 17 May and 21 June in practical terms. clubbing, wedding, festivals are all very important but don’t massively affect day to day lives.
    Indoors rule of 6 people/2 households applies between those dates. Although it wont be adhered to.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806

    Visiting York. Maybe a cafe rather than a pub - I imagine that they are all booked up.

    Every pub in North London is booked for weeks. So it’s like they never opened. Really tedious

    It’s one reason I’m getting out of town. Apparently in Cornwall people are just WALKING INTO BARS
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,555
    Leon said:


    One wedding I went to, many years ago, I snorted coke off the bonnet of the happy couple’s hired Rolls Royce - in broad daylight, at 3pm, along with one of the bridesmaids. It was parked outside the very posh hotel, booked for the reception.

    Then I took the bridesmaid back to my family house and fucked her on the washing machine (spin cycle)

    I was a younger man then. These days I get excited if I drive tipsy for 30 meters on an empty road. SIGH
    You tumbled her on a washing machine?

    Sounds like the sort of crazy thing old @SeanT would do.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,689

    You might be able to find one that does walk-ins. I’m thankful that my local(ish) does walk-ins *only*. Landlord says he can’t be faffed with booking and therefore the whole experience is more pub-like.

    In any case, hope you have a good day out!
    Cheers. Rest assured, I shall be reporting back with my experiences from the day.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited April 2021
    justin124 said:

    To take advantage of new boundaries he would have to wait until Autumn 2023.
    Am I the only one who doesn't understand WHY it takes so long? Let's look at the case of Wales.

    There are FOUR Boundary Commissioners for Wales (they are supplied with plenty of backroom help).

    They have to redraw 31 seats. (Because Ynys Mon is protected and so its boundaries are fixed by the Irish Sea).

    How on earth does this take THREE YEARS?

    A competent individual should be able to get the job done in an afternoon with a penalized optimisation code.

    All right, so there is a comments & consultation process ... but this is NOT three years work for four people.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,689
    Leon said:


    One wedding I went to, many years ago, I snorted coke off the bonnet of the happy couple’s hired Rolls Royce - in broad daylight, at 3pm, along with one of the bridesmaids. It was parked outside the very posh hotel, booked for the reception.

    Then I took the bridesmaid back to my family house and fucked her on the washing machine (spin cycle)

    I was a younger man then. These days I get excited if I drive tipsy for 30 meters on an empty road. SIGH
    Were you the groom?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,482

    The best case scenario for Labour is that Boris calls a snap poll and Labour immediately switches to a telegenic unknown like Allin-Khan, and squeezes largest party, Jacinda-style.
    Allin-Khan is by a country mile the most interesting possible future leader. This'd be like Maggie with the Tories though. A complete change.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,266
    ydoethur said:

    The Green vote share in the seats of in NW Durham, Bury North, +South, Haywood and Middleton, Gedling, High Peak, Delyn and Stroud in 2019 were all larger than the Tory majority. That’s just the ones I could be bothered to check.

    And in some of those seats, the candidates had close Green links (David Drew in Stroud, for example, sat as an independent on the district council and worked with the Greens not Labour).

    We cannot assume that people will vote tactically just because it seems to others it’s the rational thing to do.
    Starmer could do with a good ground game to squeeze Greens and LDs in Lab/Con marginals, as well as getting straight Con-Lab switchers. A difficult combination, and I cannot see it happening.

    He doesn't inspire activists, and if he cannot inspire them then how can he inspire anyone else? At best people are half hearted about him.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    ydoethur said:

    I’m sure you can’t mean what you seem to have said there.

    But if you have something that reverses ageing, please let me know what it is and where to get some.
    Oh very droll - OK, the younger voters ARE, then... My God, I could do with the elixir of youth right now mind. Having been crocked by an injury for the last six weeks, I had a go at a 10k trail run this afternoon. Apart from being slow as Hell, I was knackered for hours afterwards and my legs still object every time I have to haul myself up from a seated position. One suffered from none of these problems twenty years ago.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,363

    For someone with an astute political sixth sense, and with such an analytical track record as yourself, I am surprised you aren't considering how volatlle or even soft three or four percent of the Tory vote has been over the last year. That could make a big difference, come the next election.

    As it stands today, it looks like a comfortable Johnsonian Conservatives win, but if Johnson has another mare of a few months, as he his from late spring to December last year, and it occurs between now and the next election he could be in a spot of bother. Remember too, since mid December and the vaccine roll out, the news agenda until this week was wholly positive to the Johnson cause. That has changed this week and the news has been more Boris neutral (which is why I am more surprised by the YouGov than the Survation). I say Boris neutral as I am convinced the Cameron saga is associated with the Blair era rather than the Johnson era. If the Yougov is true it might be a case of the captives thanking their captors for their release this week.

    And then there is the economy to consider. Will it play out as a three year post Brexit and post pandemic spending boom, as Philip Thompson asserts or will it be somewhat less impressive?

    Starmer is no Blair, but neither is he an IDS or a Corbyn. Maybe he is Michael Howard, and the time is not quite right, but as I keep saying, Starmer doesn't scare the horses, and Governments lose elections. Besides which, after five years of Johnson, we might decide we want a Prime Minister who is somewhat less erratic.
    Another Starmer-positive factor is that he seems bright enough to recognise his weaknesses and diligent enough to do something about them. PMQs is Westminster Bubble, and it was an open goal, but looser, funnier Starmer worked this week.

    But the important thing for BoJo fans who want to count their chickens- this was ICM in early July 1992;

    Cons 45%
    Lab 36%

    And this was IPSOS-MORI in September 2007;

    Lab 44%
    Cons 31%

    Cherry-picked? A bit, but those results weren't out of line with others at those times.

    Events, dear boy. Events.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,555

    Am I the only one who doesn't understand WHY it takes so long? Let's look at the case of Wales.

    There are FOUR Boundary Commissioners for Wales (they are supplied with plenty of backroom help).

    They have to redraw 31 seats. (Because Ynys Mon is protected and so its boundaries are fixed by the Irish Sea).

    How on earth does this take THREE YEARS?

    A competent individual should be able to get the job done in an afternoon with a penalized optimisation code.

    All right, so there is a comments & consultation process ... but this is NOT three years work for four people.
    Because how would all the civil servants with cushy jobs justify their nice salaries if they could do the job in an afternoon on secondment from the DCLG?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806
    edited April 2021
    ydoethur said:

    You tumbled her on a washing machine?

    Sounds like the sort of crazy thing old @SeanT would do.
    Dunno about him, but I once co-hosted a very wild house party in Islington with quite famous people like **** ******* and ******* ******* all doing endless drugs in rather a surreal way. The surreality culminated when one of my housemates went into the bathroom to find a Bananarama being fucked on the tumbledryer
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,537
    Seats where the Green vote was bigger than the Tory majority over Labour in 2019:

    Seat: Con, Lab, Green

    Stroud: 47.9%, 42.1%, 7.5%
    Bury North: 46.2%, 46%, 1.7%
    Heywood and Middleton: 43.1%, 41.7%, 2.6%
    Blyth Valley: 42.7%, 40.9%, 2.8%
    High Peak: 45.9%, 44.8%, 2.1%
    Bury South: 43.8%, 43%, 1.7%
    Kensington: 38.3%, 38%, 1.2%
    Gedling: 45.5%, 44.1%, 2.2%
    Bolton North East: 45.4%, 44.5%, 1.6%
    Stoke-On-Trent Central: 45.4%, 43.3%, 2.6%
    Chipping Barnet: 44.7%, 42.6%, 2.2%
    North West Durham: 41.9%, 39.5%, 2.5%
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Foxy said:

    Starmer could do with a good ground game to squeeze Greens and LDs in Lab/Con marginals, as well as getting straight Con-Lab switchers. A difficult combination, and I cannot see it happening.

    He doesn't inspire activists, and if he cannot inspire them then how can he inspire anyone else? At best people are half hearted about him.
    Green candidates may well not stand in what are perceived to be Tory-Labour marginals. That did happen in 2017.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,266
    Leon said:


    Every pub in North London is booked for weeks. So it’s like they never opened. Really tedious

    It’s one reason I’m getting out of town. Apparently in Cornwall people are just WALKING INTO BARS
    Yes, the pub I went to last night was purely walk in, but it does help to have twenty or so tables, spread over a quarter acre.

    I am going again tommorow with different friends. Might wear my thermals though!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,555
    justin124 said:

    Green candidates may well not stand in what are perceived to be Tory-Labour marginals. That did happen in 2017.
    In which case will their voters vote at all?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,068

    The best case scenario for Labour is that Boris calls a snap poll and Labour immediately switches to a telegenic unknown like Allin-Khan, and squeezes largest party, Jacinda-style.
    Jacinda did not get largest party in 2017, the Nationals remained largest party, she only got in with Greens and NZ First support. She only won a majority for New Zealand Labour in 2020
  • Oh very droll - OK, the younger voters ARE, then... My God, I could do with the elixir of youth right now mind. Having been crocked by an injury for the last six weeks, I had a go at a 10k trail run this afternoon. Apart from being slow as Hell, I was knackered for hours afterwards and my legs still object every time I have to haul myself up from a seated position. One suffered from none of these problems twenty years ago.
    My legs object to having to haul myself up as a daily routine
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806
    Foxy said:

    Yes, the pub I went to last night was purely walk in, but it does help to have twenty or so tables, spread over a quarter acre.

    I am going again tommorow with different friends. Might wear my thermals though!
    My local has a massive beer garden (by london standards). I just tried to book a table for 2, for 2 hours, at 4pm, on MONDAY AFTERNOON

    No Dice. Nothing at all. Nothing for many days hence. Pff!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Leon said:

    My local has a massive beer garden (by london standards). I just tried to book a table for 2, for 2 hours, at 4pm, on MONDAY AFTERNOON

    No Dice. Nothing at all. Nothing for many days hence. Pff!
    Every pub in North London

    Have you considered going south of the river ?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    tlg86 said:

    Seats where the Green vote was bigger than the Tory majority over Labour in 2019:

    Seat: Con, Lab, Green

    Stroud: 47.9%, 42.1%, 7.5%
    Bury North: 46.2%, 46%, 1.7%
    Heywood and Middleton: 43.1%, 41.7%, 2.6%
    Blyth Valley: 42.7%, 40.9%, 2.8%
    High Peak: 45.9%, 44.8%, 2.1%
    Bury South: 43.8%, 43%, 1.7%
    Kensington: 38.3%, 38%, 1.2%
    Gedling: 45.5%, 44.1%, 2.2%
    Bolton North East: 45.4%, 44.5%, 1.6%
    Stoke-On-Trent Central: 45.4%, 43.3%, 2.6%
    Chipping Barnet: 44.7%, 42.6%, 2.2%
    North West Durham: 41.9%, 39.5%, 2.5%

    The Greens probably did cost Labour both Bury seats and Kensington. Far from clear they proved decisive in the other seats listed.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806

    Were you the groom?
    Lol. Very droll

    Believe it or not I actually reined that anecdote in, to save the blushes of OGH and TSE. The full debauchery is too extreme even for post-lagershed PB
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,363
    Leon said:

    Dunno about him, but I once co-hosted a very wild house party in Islington with quite famous people like **** ******* and ******* ******* all doing endless drugs in rather a surreal way. The surreality culminated when one of my housemates went into the bathroom to find a Bananarama being fucked on the tumbledryer
    It ain't what you do, it's the place that you do it
    It ain't what you do, it's the place that you do it
    It ain't what you do, it's the place that you do it
    And that's what gets results
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    ydoethur said:

    In which case will their voters vote at all?
    Most would vote - though not all would vote Labour.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806
    Pulpstar said:

    Every pub in North London

    Have you considered going south of the river ?
    *shudders*

    *visibly*
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Am I the only one who doesn't understand WHY it takes so long? Let's look at the case of Wales.

    There are FOUR Boundary Commissioners for Wales (they are supplied with plenty of backroom help).

    They have to redraw 31 seats. (Because Ynys Mon is protected and so its boundaries are fixed by the Irish Sea).

    How on earth does this take THREE YEARS?

    A competent individual should be able to get the job done in an afternoon with a penalized optimisation code.

    All right, so there is a comments & consultation process ... but this is NOT three years work for four people.
    God alone knows. AIUI the preference is always to avoid splitting wards when creating constituencies, so even with a complete redraw of the whole map they've only got to stitch together X-number of wards, each containing a known number of electors, to create seats of roughly the correct size.

    Taking sensible account of terrain, the catchment areas of towns, and local government boundaries (you probably wouldn't want to create a seat that straddled more than two council areas) means that giving the effort proper consideration would take rather more than an afternoon, but you'd think they'd have no trouble in getting Wales's relatively modest allocation done in a fortnight. The consultation process could be used to iron out any kinks, and voila! Whole thing done in six months.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Pulpstar said:

    Every pub in North London

    Have you considered going south of the river ?
    Now, now. Let's not be silly.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,266
    Leon said:


    One wedding I went to, many years ago, I snorted coke off the bonnet of the happy couple’s hired Rolls Royce - in broad daylight, at 3pm, along with one of the bridesmaids. It was parked outside the very posh hotel, booked for the reception.

    Then I took the bridesmaid back to my family house and fucked her on the washing machine (spin cycle)

    I was a younger man then. These days I get excited if I drive tipsy for 30 meters on an empty road. SIGH
    True story:

    At my brothers wedding, the best man seduced one of the bridesmaids. Not so unusual perhaps, but the tricky part was persuading the bridesmaid to do the deed up a tree, on a branch overhanging a lake in the hotel grounds. Apparently it took him an hour to convince her to climb the tree. To cap it all he had the keys to the bride and groom's hotel room on him so they had to wait for the couple to reappear at 3 AM to allow them to turn in.

    In a bit of karma for all his misbehaviour, he now has three daughters.



  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806

    It ain't what you do, it's the place that you do it
    It ain't what you do, it's the place that you do it
    It ain't what you do, it's the place that you do it
    And that's what gets results
    The reserved English gentleman in me prevents me from revealing WHICH Bananarama, of course

    I can say there are rumours, to this day, the entwined paramours were not only on top of a rattling tumbledryer, but also using an electric toothbrush
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806
    Foxy said:

    True story:

    At my brothers wedding, the best man seduced one of the bridesmaids. Not so unusual perhaps, but the tricky part was persuading the bridesmaid to do the deed up a tree, on a branch overhanging a lake in the hotel grounds. Apparently it took him an hour to convince her to climb the tree. To cap it all he had the keys to the bride and groom's hotel room on him so they had to wait for the couple to reappear at 3 AM to allow them to turn in.

    In a bit of karma for all his misbehaviour, he now has three daughters.



    Hahaha. I love stories of debauches. Especially right now

    Only two things in life are certain: death and bridesmaids
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,555
    justin124 said:

    Most would vote - though not all would vote Labour.
    My point being that this idea ‘Green voters will vote Labour if it wasn’t for the Greens’ is a lazy assumption. Like ‘Brexit voters would vote Tory if it wasn’t for Farage.’

    Yes, some of them might, but there’s a large body of evidence that even where their votes could have been used to help Labour win a seat they lost, they chose not to vote that way. That does not suggest they would vote Labour merely because there wasn’t a Green candidate.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,689
    On Look North this evening there was a rundown of which elections are being held in each part of the region. Turns out that in North Yorkshire the council elections have been suspended pending a review of the 2 tier council structure and the poor buggers have only got the PCC election to vote in. Expect a very low turnout.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,266
    HYUFD said:

    Jacinda did not get largest party in 2017, the Nationals remained largest party, she only got in with Greens and NZ First support. She only won a majority for New Zealand Labour in 2020
    I suspect our Labour Party would be happy with that. Rosena? Get her in!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,219

    God alone knows. AIUI the preference is always to avoid splitting wards when creating constituencies, so even with a complete redraw of the whole map they've only got to stitch together X-number of wards, each containing a known number of electors, to create seats of roughly the correct size.

    Taking sensible account of terrain, the catchment areas of towns, and local government boundaries (you probably wouldn't want to create a seat that straddled more than two council areas) means that giving the effort proper consideration would take rather more than an afternoon, but you'd think they'd have no trouble in getting Wales's relatively modest allocation done in a fortnight. The consultation process could be used to iron out any kinks, and voila! Whole thing done in six months.
    Churchill could have done the job in one lunch.

    Hic!
  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 606
    Omnium said:

    Allin-Khan is by a country mile the most interesting possible future leader. This'd be like Maggie with the Tories though. A complete change.
    She's lovely. I'd marry her tomorrow. Think most of the heterosexual male population would too.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    God alone knows. AIUI the preference is always to avoid splitting wards when creating constituencies, so even with a complete redraw of the whole map they've only got to stitch together X-number of wards, each containing a known number of electors, to create seats of roughly the correct size.

    Taking sensible account of terrain, the catchment areas of towns, and local government boundaries (you probably wouldn't want to create a seat that straddled more than two council areas) means that giving the effort proper consideration would take rather more than an afternoon, but you'd think they'd have no trouble in getting Wales's relatively modest allocation done in a fortnight. The consultation process could be used to iron out any kinks, and voila! Whole thing done in six months.
    A full time PhD takes three years, during which an individual is expected to master a complex discipline, carry out original research, write it up & get it published.

    Joining together wards to form 31 roughly equal constituencies is a doddle by comparison. It really is not a hard problem.

    But it apparently takes numerous fat-arsed civil servants the same length of time as a PhD -- probably with access to many more resources and costing vastly more money.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,266
    edited April 2021
    Leon said:

    Hahaha. I love stories of debauches. Especially right now

    Only two things in life are certain: death and bridesmaids
    The same best man managed to get myself and a few others carried off to Marylebone nick on my stag night. He always knew how to push a stunt just a bit too far...
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Leon said:

    My local has a massive beer garden (by london standards). I just tried to book a table for 2, for 2 hours, at 4pm, on MONDAY AFTERNOON

    No Dice. Nothing at all. Nothing for many days hence. Pff!
    I'm astonished by these stories emanating from London. Is it where you move to when you become an alcoholic?

    From what little I've seen around these parts trade is very brisk but the hostelries aren't booked solid for weeks: husband had no difficulty booking us in at our favourite for lunch a week Sunday. And there's no shortage of well-heeled people around these parts, and not all that many pubs and bars left (off the top of my head I think there are eight watering holes remaining in town, but one is boarded up and I can as yet neither confirm nor deny that three of the other seven have survived all these lockdowns.)

    Then again, perhaps it's simply a function of many of them having little or no outside space? Only the case with one of our remaining seven, I think.
  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 606
    justin124 said:

    Green candidates may well not stand in what are perceived to be Tory-Labour marginals. That did happen in 2017.
    In Preseli the Greens stood aside in 2017, and helped the campaign. Your acquaintance Philippa only missed out by 300 votes. If only the Libs and Plaid had stood down....
    Ps Philippa is standing for Police Commissioner this year.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 739
    edited April 2021
    We get the first drafts of the Boundary Commissions’ proposals this summer, before they go to consultation.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,677
    valleyboy said:

    She's lovely. I'd marry her tomorrow. Think most of the heterosexual male population would too.
    She looks OK.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,555
    edited April 2021

    A full time PhD takes three years, during which an individual is expected to master a complex discipline, carry out original research, write it up & get it published.

    Joining together wards to form 31 roughly equal constituencies is a doddle by comparison. It really is not a hard problem.

    But it apparently takes numerous fat-arsed civil servants the same length of time as a PhD -- probably with access to many more resources and costing vastly more money.
    They’re not usually expected to get it published in the three years in History at least. In fact, it normally takes several more years to get it published unless it’s the university’s in-house publisher doing it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806
    More seriously, THIS could destroy the Tories overnight


    ‘New Covid variants appear to be escaping vaccines, with the latest figures showing a doubling in cases of the South African mutation in the UK in the last month.’

    ‘The outbreak in London is thought to have been triggered by an individual travelling from a country in Africa to the UK in February, with cases spreading to members of their household and then to a care home in Lambeth, which is understood to have suffered at least 23 infections.’

    Why was ANYONE allowed into the UK from Africa in February? If they did get in, why weren’t they isolated in a prison-like environment for 3 weeks until tested 9 times and proven safe? I don’t care if they were coming back to see a dying mother. Tough shit. I haven’t seen my mother since last summer. No one in the UK can go anywhere

    This boils my blood. If all our lockdowns prove pointless because Boris couldn’t seal the borders I will vote Anything But Tory for the rest of recorded time

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/16/fears-covid-variants-escaping-vaccines-cases-south-african-strain/
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,266

    She looks OK.
    Poor Rachel Reeves, cast aside like yesterday's paper...
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    ydoethur said:

    They’re not usually expected to get it published in the three years in History at least. In fact, it normally takes several more years to get it published unless it’s the university’s in-house publisher doing it.
    You'd be looking at unemployment in the sciences if you had not published most of it during the PhD years.

    Agreed it is somewhat different in the humanities.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,266
    Leon said:

    More seriously, THIS could destroy the Tories overnight


    ‘New Covid variants appear to be escaping vaccines, with the latest figures showing a doubling in cases of the South African mutation in the UK in the last month.’

    ‘The outbreak in London is thought to have been triggered by an individual travelling from a country in Africa to the UK in February, with cases spreading to members of their household and then to a care home in Lambeth, which is understood to have suffered at least 23 infections.’

    Why was ANYONE allowed into the UK from Africa in February? If they did get in, why weren’t they isolated in a prison-like environment for 3 weeks until tested 9 times and proven safe? I don’t care if they were coming back to see a dying mother. Tough shit. I haven’t seen my mother since last summer. No one in the UK can go anywhere

    This boils my blood. If all our lockdowns prove pointless because Boris couldn’t seal the borders I will vote Anything But Tory for the rest of recorded time

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/16/fears-covid-variants-escaping-vaccines-cases-south-african-strain/

    23 cases in a care home? Would have all been well post vaccination. Ominous.

    Were any of them admitted
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806
    Foxy said:

    23 cases in a care home? Would have all been well post vaccination. Ominous.

    Were any of them admitted
    The article says several were vaxxed. It doesn’t say how long they’d been vaxxed, nor how serious the cases. These are now crucial points to know
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,318
    valleyboy said:

    She's lovely. I'd marry her tomorrow. Think most of the heterosexual male population would too.
    She is lovely. But don't forget she unforgivably plageurised Johnson with the Love Actually, Andrew Lincoln/ Keira Knightly scene, a week before Johnson did it.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Leon said:

    More seriously, THIS could destroy the Tories overnight


    ‘New Covid variants appear to be escaping vaccines, with the latest figures showing a doubling in cases of the South African mutation in the UK in the last month.’

    ‘The outbreak in London is thought to have been triggered by an individual travelling from a country in Africa to the UK in February, with cases spreading to members of their household and then to a care home in Lambeth, which is understood to have suffered at least 23 infections.’

    Why was ANYONE allowed into the UK from Africa in February? If they did get in, why weren’t they isolated in a prison-like environment for 3 weeks until tested 9 times and proven safe? I don’t care if they were coming back to see a dying mother. Tough shit. I haven’t seen my mother since last summer. No one in the UK can go anywhere

    This boils my blood. If all our lockdowns prove pointless because Boris couldn’t seal the borders I will vote Anything But Tory for the rest of recorded time

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/16/fears-covid-variants-escaping-vaccines-cases-south-african-strain/

    +1
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,662
    Omnium said:

    The Greens are of course useless currently. However they are working on something approaching a 21st Century mindset. Labour, in part operate on a 19th Century one.

    If the Greens started freeing themselves from the really stupid people that they've always embraced then who knows.

    Actual 'Green' policy things like climate change are being handled much better by the mainstream parties.
    Correct - compare with Germany where they are currently on 20%+ .
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,266

    A fair point. I too, find halitosis to be rather off-putting during moments of intimacy.
    I rather liked Prof Tang's advice on dodging covid. Imagine everyone has garlic breath, because if you can inhale garlic at that distance you can inhale covid.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/15/garlic-breath-distancing-expert-suggests-new-way-stay-covid-safe
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,677
    Foxy said:

    Poor Rachel Reeves, cast aside like yesterday's paper...
    Fear not! Rachel looks more OK than Rosena.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,266
    HIGNFY actually rather funny tonight. Every joke about Prince Philip.

    I can imagine a few complaints incoming.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    We have a potentially dangerous variant from India, but I don't think India has been put on the red list yet?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    valleyboy said:

    In Preseli the Greens stood aside in 2017, and helped the campaign. Your acquaintance Philippa only missed out by 300 votes. If only the Libs and Plaid had stood down....
    Ps Philippa is standing for Police Commissioner this year.
    I am not actually acquainted with her!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,689

    Fear not! Rachel looks more OK than Rosena.
    RR is often being interviewed on TV.

    Starmer obviously feels that she is one of the better performers in his Shad Cab.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,266

    RR is often being interviewed on TV.

    Starmer obviously feels that she is one of the better performers in his Shad Cab.

    Seems to have Sunil's approval...
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    ydoethur said:

    My point being that this idea ‘Green voters will vote Labour if it wasn’t for the Greens’ is a lazy assumption. Like ‘Brexit voters would vote Tory if it wasn’t for Farage.’

    Yes, some of them might, but there’s a large body of evidence that even where their votes could have been used to help Labour win a seat they lost, they chose not to vote that way. That does not suggest they would vote Labour merely because there wasn’t a Green candidate.
    I agree with that - and have never thought that more than circa 70% would vote Labour. Perhaps 20% would vote LD - with 5% - 10% switching to the Tories. Others would abstain.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806
    Andy_JS said:

    We have a potentially dangerous variant from India, but I don't think India has been put on the red list yet?

    No, it hasn’t. Nor has Pakistan. It’s insane.

    The entire world should be on the red list. Zero travel for anyone. No one gets in, no one gets out, unless you have an overriding reason which justifies endangering the nation. Even then you should be tested 47 times

    So this might knock off 5% of GDP permanently? So be it. Another wave and another lockdown will be WORSE
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,266
    Andy_JS said:

    We have a potentially dangerous variant from India, but I don't think India has been put on the red list yet?

    Looking grim:

    BREAKING: India reports 233,757 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 1,338 new deaths

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1383127597236764676?s=19
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939

    A full time PhD takes three years, during which an individual is expected to master a complex discipline, carry out original research, write it up & get it published.

    Joining together wards to form 31 roughly equal constituencies is a doddle by comparison. It really is not a hard problem.

    But it apparently takes numerous fat-arsed civil servants the same length of time as a PhD -- probably with access to many more resources and costing vastly more money.
    I whiled away an afternoon re-distributing Wales to prove my point in an argument on here.
    Only to discover later that they'd ringfenced Ynys Mon!
    It really didn't take more than a few hours using EC maps. No software needed.
    Only a few areas are not very obvious at all.
This discussion has been closed.