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Conflicts of Interest – politicalbetting.com

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  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,558

    So, I'm starting another stint as Guest Editor of PB in the next few days, if any of you have any pieces you'd like me to consider for publication, let me know.

    Otherwise everyday will feature a thread on AV or Scottish Independence, somedays, I may even combine them both.

    Come back, Mike! All is forgiven!!!
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Floater said:

    I thought you were shooting the messenger a bit :smiley:
    Another link on the story

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1382364816828948484
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,594

    Tanks would be useless in an invasion of Scotland even before you consider the mothballing of the Challenger II tanks.

    To invade Scotland we'd need 3 Commando Brigade and 16 Air Assault Brigade to do the heavy lifting.
    I’d be worried about asymmetric warfare - those highlanders retreating to their mountains and conducting hit and run attacks...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,202

    Tanks would be useless in an invasion of Scotland even before you consider the mothballing of the Challenger II tanks.

    To invade Scotland we'd need 3 Commando Brigade and 16 Air Assault Brigade to do the heavy lifting.
    That will come as a crushing disappointment to HYUFD.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,319
    Fishing said:

    Something tells me you two will still be having this discussion in 50 years' time ...


    Of course the debate isn't going to go away- any more than it did after 1975.

    If the Brexit Project works- if it makes people happier, more prosperous and more in control of their lives- it will stick.

    If it doesn't, it won't.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,459

    Tanks would be useless in an invasion of Scotland even before you consider the mothballing of the Challenger II tanks.

    To invade Scotland we'd need 3 Commando Brigade and 16 Air Assault Brigade to do the heavy lifting.
    One man could win though. Probably not with a flag.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,480
    Sandpit said:

    So is Prince Philip.
    Still?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,289

    What’s the German Chancellor gone and said now?
    That's a remerkable mistake to make.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,289

    I'm truly English.

    Up to you whether you want to consider that "little" or not.
    Nationalism... always a force for bad.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,202

    Dear Ms Markle

    Few give a monkeys whether you are prepared to "forgive" the Royal Family" It is yet another attempt to grab the limelight.

    Kindly go away and annoy someone else (as you surely will).

    Thank you

    SR2

    I guessed every one of your six likes. Do I win a prize?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    I guessed every one of your six likes. Do I win a prize?
    Yes - the title of Snowflake Of The Year. Congratulations!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,289

    Tanks would be useless in an invasion of Scotland even before you consider the mothballing of the Challenger II tanks.

    To invade Scotland we'd need 3 Commando Brigade and 16 Air Assault Brigade to do the heavy lifting.
    Or a few boughs from Birnam Wood.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Right. Masterchef coming up. At last!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204
    eek said:

    There is a large percentage of the Israeli population who won't accept the vaccine...
    It's mostly children (27.4% 15 or under assuming an equal number of 10,11 etc year olds) within the 10-19 cat:
    https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https://datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/general
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,917

    Right. Masterchef coming up. At last!

    No spoilers please. Gonna watch on iPlayer in an hour. :wink:
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,455
    Evening all :)

    I presume there's been comment on the new London Mayoral polling from Opinium.

    Sadiq Khan will be relaxed with a rating of 51% (-2) while Bailey (29%), Berry and Porritt (both 8%) are all up a point but this is margin of error stuff.

    Khan beats Bailey 64-36 in a run off (Khan down 2, Bailey up 2).
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    Those in meltdown over Markle's every utterance are the snowflakes here.
    And those counting the likes on comments about Markle's every utterance? What are they?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Cookie said:

    Is it in the government's gift to increase the pay of care workers? I thought they were mainly in the private sector.

    They typically get paid the minimum wage. The cost of any increases are passed on to LAs.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,148

    For all his faults he did see active service in the Falklands
    I remember the Joke of the day:

    Q: What is the difference between Koo Stark and the Argies?

    A: Only one managed to blow up Andrew's chopper.

    Is that my coat?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,289
    edited April 2021

    And those counting the likes on comments about Markle's every utterance? What are they?
    People who count?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    dixiedean said:

    No spoilers please. Gonna watch on iPlayer in an hour. :wink:
    Sure. Want Alexina to win, but think Tom more likely.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,289
    dixiedean said:

    No spoilers please. Gonna watch on iPlayer in an hour. :wink:

    It ends in... dessert.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556


    People who count?
    After the toddler stage, most people have the good sense not to show off their ability to count to half a dozen in public.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204
    Israel uptake by 1st dose
    90+ 98.7%
    80-89 95.4%
    70-79 97.9%
    60-69 89.5%
    50-59 88.3%
    40-49 83.6%
    30-39 79.3%
    20-29 75%
    10-19 21.7%
    0-9 0%

    Gives 57.41% overall
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,148
    Great header from @Cyclefree

    I think the Greensill affair will go the way of Salmond, bogged down in detail that bores the public. It will leave behind a stink but not a fatal one.

    We just expect politicians to shovel money to their mates nowadays. We are in the age of a gilded kleptocracy, which is pretty much where populist governments wind up.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Foxy said:

    Great header from @Cyclefree

    I think the Greensill affair will go the way of Salmond, bogged down in detail that bores the public. It will leave behind a stink but not a fatal one.

    We just expect politicians to shovel money to their mates nowadays. We are in the age of a gilded kleptocracy, which is pretty much where populist governments wind up.

    Tory sleaze proved to be a winner for LAB at the end of the Major government. And Starmer did well today getting that message across.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,518
    Foxy said:

    Great header from @Cyclefree

    I think the Greensill affair will go the way of Salmond, bogged down in detail that bores the public. It will leave behind a stink but not a fatal one.

    We just expect politicians to shovel money to their mates nowadays. We are in the age of a gilded kleptocracy, which is pretty much where populist governments wind up.

    I thought you were a fan of the coalition government? That's who's bent, not the current administration (they might be too, but from what I can tell Sunak did everything right).
  • tlg86 said:
    False flag attack by Evertonians.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Unbelievable. In what dark recess of his tiny brain does Andrew think he merits the uniform of Admiral?
    He had been promised a promotion on his 60 birthday. It was deferred because of the Epstein situation. He thinks that he should get to wear the uniform despite not being promoted.

    The politest comment I can think of is is that he is utterly tin-eared
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,130
    edited April 2021
    On topic - what do we classify the following as?

    Some years ago, RN's Spearfish torpedos came due for a mid life overhaul/upgrade.

    Spearfish is an example of a weapon that is made in the UK and is actually pretty good.

    One of the companies involved in building them put in a bid to go the maintenance on the hydraulics. Because of the compact design of the systems to fit in the torpedo, the hydraulics were one of kind. It turned out that when developing them for the torpedo, the company in question had used a cunning and fairly standard tactic. They had spent some of their own money on tools and designs. So they owned the IP.

    This meant that only they could do the work. The bid they put in for the maintenance work was... impressive.

    A couple of bright sparks at the MoD realised that technology had moved on. They worked out that you could replace the hydraulic systems in the torpedo with electrical actuators. Which were cheaper, safer (no liquids at a zillion psi) and practically maintenance free. Oh, and lighter. The cost of replacement was a fraction of the cost of the upgrade of the hydraulics.

    The response was this - an attempt by civil servants and politicians to get the electrical upgrade binned and the the people responsible fired. On the grounds of "protecting the industrial base".

    Both the civil servants and politicians involved were... connected to the company in question.

    The upgrade to use the electrical system went ahead, IIRC.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    So, I'm starting another stint as Guest Editor of PB in the next few days, if any of you have any pieces you'd like me to consider for publication, let me know.

    Otherwise everyday will feature a thread on AV or Scottish Independence, somedays, I may even combine them both.

    How much pineapple should you have on your pizza: Results under FPTP vs AV
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,148
    Trouble at t'mill.

    https://twitter.com/leicesterucu/status/1382357112605581314?s=19

    Interesting times in the university sector. Financially stretched, mutinous staff, fed up domestic students, no lucrative overseas students etc.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Charles said:

    How much pineapple should you have on your pizza: Results under FPTP vs AV
    Famous people you thought were dead until you visited your Chippy
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,130
    Pulpstar said:

    Israel uptake by 1st dose
    90+ 98.7%
    80-89 95.4%
    70-79 97.9%
    60-69 89.5%
    50-59 88.3%
    40-49 83.6%
    30-39 79.3%
    20-29 75%
    10-19 21.7%
    0-9 0%

    Gives 57.41% overall

    Yes - Israel has a alot of children....

    Are they vaccination down to 16?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    Tory sleaze proved to be a winner for LAB at the end of the Major government. And Starmer did well today getting that message across.
    He did
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,148
    tlg86 said:

    I thought you were a fan of the coalition government? That's who's bent, not the current administration (they might be too, but from what I can tell Sunak did everything right).
    Yes, by and large I was a supporter of the Coalition. That doesn't make me blind to the sleaze, and I think that the key events were under Tory control, and/or after 2015.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924


    It ends in... dessert.
    Does it feature the Lab. candidate for Hartlepool?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204

    Yes - Israel has a alot of children....

    Are they vaccination down to 16?
    Yes, they want to vaccinate 12 - 15 yr olds

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-childrens-doctors-to-issue-call-to-vaccinate-under-16s/

    One other thing to note is pregnant women are included in their rollout whereas it is limited for the UK
    https://www.jpost.com/health-science/coronavirus-israel-right-to-vaccinate-pregnant-women-experts-say-656919
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,758
    Study suggests the AZ vaccine may be better at creating a T-cell response than Pfizer.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/apr/14/single-pfizer-or-astrazeneca-dose-produces-strong-antibody-response-study-shows
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,257

    Or a few boughs from Birnam Wood.
    A particularly stubborn sapling from Epping Forest will do the job.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,319
    Foxy said:

    Great header from @Cyclefree

    I think the Greensill affair will go the way of Salmond, bogged down in detail that bores the public. It will leave behind a stink but not a fatal one.

    We just expect politicians to shovel money to their mates nowadays. We are in the age of a gilded kleptocracy, which is pretty much where populist governments wind up.

    That's probably the problem for the foreseeable future. Of course, this is where populist governments end up. (Challenge: can anyone name a populist government that has caused its country to thrive, as opposed to the members of said government? I genuinely can't, and would be happier if I thought this story had a happy ending.) However, there are two bits of hope.

    First, the government was in a significant pickle in December and has only been saved by the vaccine bounce. The GBP are rewarding and punishing the government reasonably rationally for successes and failures. We're not quite at Latin American standards, even Italian standards, yet. And this government is likely to fail more than it succeeds, because it has BoJo at its head and lickspittles under him.

    Second, events. Although BoJo and co are hollow enough to ignore scandals that would have felled other politicians, funny things can happen. Think back to the expenses scandal. One of the key phrases that people remember from that time is "Duck House". Now Sir Peter Viggers was the MP for my hometown. Career had been over in the 1980s really, should have retired in 2001, but decent cove and mostly harmless. I delivered leaflets for him back in the day. He was far from the worst sinner in the scandal (I think he never got the money for the damn thing) but something about the absurdity of him asking if he could claim for a duck house cut through with the public in a way that worse examples of greed didn't. This scandal, or one of the many that are surely in the pipeline, has the potential for something really trivial that causes the public to turn. Because the public are like that.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Surely City aren't going to fail in CL again
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,148
    tlg86 said:

    The lack of wanting to own the coalition record in government is why the Lib Dems got their arses hand to them by the electorate.
    Not the only reason, but I agree. We see now how the Lib Dems kept the Tories under control. The post 2015 chaos and incompetence of a majority Tory government shows the difference.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,148
    Man City looking rattled. They are not used to being behind and look fragile.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Foxy said:

    Not the only reason, but I agree. We see now how the Lib Dems kept the Tories under control. The post 2015 chaos and incompetence of a majority Tory government shows the difference.
    Austerity supported by LDs vs Austerity enabled by LDs same difference
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Surely City aren't going to fail in CL again

    Maybe their supporters should stop banging on about how they're going to win the Quad and just try and go for the CL.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,148

    Austerity supported by LDs vs Austerity enabled by LDs same difference
    Labour planned austerity in 2010 too. That's what happens when the money runs out. We will see it again soon.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204

    Study suggests the AZ vaccine may be better at creating a T-cell response than Pfizer.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/apr/14/single-pfizer-or-astrazeneca-dose-produces-strong-antibody-response-study-shows

    We've got ~ 19.5 million Astraed up people in the country. I think aside from blood clots we should probably slow that right down and move to the slightly higher efficacy vaccines for the remainder of the population.
    Astra is a great vaccine for preventing severe disease but we're past that and could probably hit sterlising immunity with other vaccines, particularly mRNA. Boosters of a different type in the Autumn would be a great idea I think - over 50 prior Astra with an mRNA or Novavax and mix and match 2nd dosing would push us up higher.
    Right now I have us at a restriction free stopping r(0) from both viruses and infections of 2. Paediatric approval for mRNA vaccines would be fab too.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    Maybe their supporters should stop banging on about how they're going to win the Quad and just try and go for the CL.
    Agreed
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,186

    Of course the debate isn't going to go away- any more than it did after 1975.

    If the Brexit Project works- if it makes people happier, more prosperous and more in control of their lives- it will stick.

    If it doesn't, it won't.
    I think it will, because the world will move on. So the debate will come in time to be anachronistic.

    "Europe" isn't the future as it looked in the 1970s, and the international challenges we face now can only be solved globally.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,228

    Austerity supported by LDs vs Austerity enabled by LDs same difference
    To many it probably is. To others the point of a third centre party is its ability to form coalitions. They are probably the party closest to my views but I really struggle to see the point of them if they do not embrace coalitions, and take responsibility for explaining why they are better to the electorate.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Liverpool missing too many great chances
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,289
    Charles said:

    He had been promised a promotion on his 60 birthday. It was deferred because of the Epstein situation. He thinks that he should get to wear the uniform despite not being promoted.

    The politest comment I can think of is is that he is utterly tin-eared
    What does he actually think being 'promoted' would mean? Would he get more pay? Be able to order more people or ships around? Would anyone respect him more (or at all)?

    There must be Trumpian levels of self-delusion involved.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Foxy said:

    Not the only reason, but I agree. We see now how the Lib Dems kept the Tories under control. The post 2015 chaos and incompetence of a majority Tory government shows the difference.
    The only chaos and incompetence was when Mrs Strong & Stable took over and threw away the majority.

    There's been great competence since then which is how we managed to get a revised Brexit agreement, a trade deal and world beating vaccinations.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,518
    Given Nick Clegg now "works" for Facebook, I'm not sure the Lib Dems are well placed to throw stones.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,148

    Maybe their supporters should stop banging on about how they're going to win the Quad and just try and go for the CL.
    I fancy Chelsea in the FA Cup semi too. They are looking formidable. Man City should manage the Carabao Cup though.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,186

    Tory sleaze proved to be a winner for LAB at the end of the Major government. And Starmer did well today getting that message across.
    The trouble is that by the end of the last Labour government it was largely Labour MPs being charged and imprisoned for fraud.

    And do you know who charged them?

    Keir Starmer.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    tlg86 said:

    The lack of wanting to own the coalition record in government is why the Lib Dems got their arses hand to them by the electorate.
    They should have been proud of their achievements in government, but instead most were ashamed of them almost immediately.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    OMG Liverpool should be at least 3 up but poor finishing costing them dear
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,148
    tlg86 said:

    Given Nick Clegg now "works" for Facebook, I'm not sure the Lib Dems are well placed to throw stones.

    Yes, I was quite disappointed in that, but that was post 2017 and while a clear shift to the Dark Side, did not involve sleaze.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    But Malc

    HYUFD has another poll today that he says may see the SNP miss a majority

    See the following:-


    New Panelbase Holyrood poll has the SNP down 2% on the constituency vote to 47% and the SNP down 3% on the list to 36%.

    That would lead to only 63 SNP seats and no SNP majority at Holyrood

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1382363721054453771?s=20
    That poll has the Greens on 4% on the constituency vote.

    They are only standing in 11 constituencies. They'd be on an average of 26% of the vote in each constituency if that was the case.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,488
    gealbhan said:

    They are not sliding though.

    Just this gut feel in Boris and this liberal Tory government, the vast majority of the British People (English and Welsh as Romans dubbed it) have the prime minister and the Government they have wanted for decades. Next 2 GE sown up I think, especially as Labour don’t have a credible Prime Minister in waiting.
    You really are barking mad. You are now predicting a Tory govt with certainty untill 2034. No unforseen events between now and then? Nothing like, I don't know covid or Brexit might turnup.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,518
    Foxy said:

    Yes, I was quite disappointed in that, but that was post 2017 and while a clear shift to the Dark Side, did not involve sleaze.
    But it's the same thing as Cameron and Osborne and all the rest of them. They get the jobs because of who they are and who they know.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,148

    The trouble is that by the end of the last Labour government it was largely Labour MPs being charged and imprisoned for fraud.

    And do you know who charged them?

    Keir Starmer.
    So you are saying he busts crims without favour? That's probably the most positive thing said about him on here for weeks.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,455
    6 years on and it seems we are still arguing about the Coalition.

    Perhaps arguing isn't the right word - those who are anti-LD will doubtless witter on about it for as long as the Conservatives used to mention the "Winter of Discontent" regarding Labour.

    In other words, long after most people have forgotten about it or stopped caring about it.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,558

    The trouble is that by the end of the last Labour government it was largely Labour MPs being charged and imprisoned for fraud.

    And do you know who charged them?

    Keir Starmer.
    See? He's not all bad :lol:
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,148
    Alistair said:

    That poll has the Greens on 4% on the constituency vote.

    They are only standing in 11 constituencies. They'd be on an average of 26% of the vote in each constituency if that was the case.
    Yes but do the poll responders know that?

    When they look at the ballot paper and there is no Scottish Green, who do you think they will go for? SNP surely?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited April 2021
    tlg86 said:

    The lack of wanting to own the coalition record in government is why the Lib Dems got their arses hand to them by the electorate.
    This is one of those weird statements that I see repeated as fact a lot.

    Simply going into coalition with the Tories broke the Lib Dems in the eyes of many voters.

    In 2010 they got 18.9% of the vote in Scotland, in 2011 they got 8% - losing over half their vote. This was not down to failing to own their record in government.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Foxy said:

    Yes but do the poll responders know that?

    When they look at the ballot paper and there is no Scottish Green, who do you think they will go for? SNP surely?
    It is not quite so cut and dried but yes. I note that in that panelbase poll the SNP are down 2 points and the greens are up 2 points.

    Those 2 points are very fungible voters.

    The George Galloway vehicle on 2% is also scarcely believable (at least it is down from the ludicrous 4% from last time).

    The entire Panelbase poll is deeply suspect - at least they aren't prompting with Alex Salmond's name this time out.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,488

    Dear Ms Markle

    Few give a monkeys whether you are prepared to "forgive" the Royal Family" It is yet another attempt to grab the limelight.

    Kindly go away and annoy someone else (as you surely will).

    Thank you

    SR2

    What on earth did she do to you?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,518
    Alistair said:

    This is one of those weird statements that I see repeated as fact a lot.

    Simply going into coalition with the Tories broke the Lib Dems in the eyes of many voters.

    In 2010 they got 18.9% of the vote in Scotland, in 2011 they got 8% - losing over half their vote. This was not down to failing to own their record in government.
    I think it was inevitable that they'd lose seats in 2010 (certainly most of the Labour facing ones). But I think they could have done a better job than they did. That alternative budget was one of the most bizarre things I've ever seen.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,009
    kjh said:

    What on earth did she do to you?
    Make the TV programme.
    Inexcusable on every level.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Foxy said:

    So you are saying he busts crims without favour? That's probably the most positive thing said about him on here for weeks.
    He was good at PMQs today

    Made the PM look dodgy as hell

    Hope it leads to a bounce for PV deadline but one swallow a summer does not make so not overly hopeful
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,574
    edited April 2021

    Liz 4% Kendall sneering at "shelf stackers" not a good look either.

    Does she really even think there is a job called that,and after shop workers have risked their lives too to keep the shops open why sneer at them.

    Typical out of touch Politician or just terrible wording from a talentless individual?

    I think those having a go at Liz Kendall, are those who would be having a go at er anyway, and the outrage is confected. It is not a sneer imo.

    Shelf stacker is still a relevant term, though in some places it has been 'remanufactured' as "Night Replenishment Assistant".


  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Alistair said:

    This is one of those weird statements that I see repeated as fact a lot.

    Simply going into coalition with the Tories broke the Lib Dems in the eyes of many voters.

    In 2010 they got 18.9% of the vote in Scotland, in 2011 they got 8% - losing over half their vote. This was not down to failing to own their record in government.
    Yeah but they compounded that by losing the other half too.

    By going into office with the Tories they lost their left-leaning supporters.
    By disowning and seeming to be embarrassed by their record they lost their right-leaning supporters.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Foxy said:

    So you are saying he busts crims without favour? That's probably the most positive thing said about him on here for weeks.
    One might think he is perfectly placed.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,228
    stodge said:

    6 years on and it seems we are still arguing about the Coalition.

    Perhaps arguing isn't the right word - those who are anti-LD will doubtless witter on about it for as long as the Conservatives used to mention the "Winter of Discontent" regarding Labour.

    In other words, long after most people have forgotten about it or stopped caring about it.

    As a potential LD voter my very blunt question is what is the point of the LDs in the 2020s?

    Are they trying to be a party of national govt?
    Is it a movement to retain a liberal voice in discourse?
    Is it about another coalition?
    Is it about local government?

    It seems to try to do a bit of everything without much focus, and therefore is failing at everything.

    Two big gripes from me would be as said not being proud of its record in govt and secondly not supporting any of the indicative votes in the Brexit process which would have saved us from "Boris" and his authoritarian kleptocracy.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited April 2021
    Alistair said:

    This is one of those weird statements that I see repeated as fact a lot.

    Simply going into coalition with the Tories broke the Lib Dems in the eyes of many voters.

    In 2010 they got 18.9% of the vote in Scotland, in 2011 they got 8% - losing over half their vote. This was not down to failing to own their record in government.
    Indeed. The Lib Dems' poll ratings went down exactly in tandem with their association with a Conservative government. As the memory wears off, theiir share as the traditional nonconformist protest vote, originally in fact a Protestant Nonconformist vote, will rise again.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,186
    Foxy said:

    So you are saying he busts crims without favour? That's probably the most positive thing said about him on here for weeks.
    As DPP, one would hope so. The point is that Labour sleaze is as prevalent as the Tory type, and voters don't distinguish, so the impact on voting intention is minimal.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,319
    Alistair said:

    This is one of those weird statements that I see repeated as fact a lot.

    Simply going into coalition with the Tories broke the Lib Dems in the eyes of many voters.

    In 2010 they got 18.9% of the vote in Scotland, in 2011 they got 8% - losing over half their vote. This was not down to failing to own their record in government.
    A chunk of their vote was won on the basis of "It's a two horse race; only Liberal Democrats can beat the Tories here". And another chunk of their vote was won on the basis of "It's a two horse race; only Liberal Democrats can beat Labour here."

    One of those chunks of vote was always going to go up in smoke in any hung parliament scenario. Different decisions in 2010 might have saved some of it, but not much.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,488

    Make the TV programme.
    Inexcusable on every level.
    Just to annoy you?

    You should do what I did and not watch any of it.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,655
    Right. Time to settle down for the new series of 'Frock Off'. The BBC at its best.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,186

    The only chaos and incompetence was when Mrs Strong & Stable took over and threw away the majority.

    There's been great competence since then which is how we managed to get a revised Brexit agreement, a trade deal and world beating vaccinations.
    She's a case study in how far and fast you fall when you have zero people skills.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,009

    There are plenty of valid arguments to be made in favour of republicanism, but practically no public interest in actually implementing it.
    I am not sure about Andrew. He seems to have been very foolish.. Best to keep.out of the limelight,.. just like Ms Markle should. I am actually angrier with Harry for allowing the broadcast to happen.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,202

    The trouble is that by the end of the last Labour government it was largely Labour MPs being charged and imprisoned for fraud.

    And do you know who charged them?

    Keir Starmer.
    A feather in his cap then.

    This looks different to previous misdemeanors like Jenrick and the pornographer. It ties some of the earlier accusations against the Johnson Government together. Johnson's popularity is riding high at present, and he seems content for Cameron to take the fall, however when the government starts to struggle, which is inevitable, and another minor scandal hits the headlines, this one will be dredged up, and its effect will gain traction.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,148

    As DPP, one would hope so. The point is that Labour sleaze is as prevalent as the Tory type, and voters don't distinguish, so the impact on voting intention is minimal.
    Nah, it is sleaze in government that bothers them. "Chuck 'em out, the scoundrels" applies to governments not oppositions.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    As DPP, one would hope so. The point is that Labour sleaze is as prevalent as the Tory type, and voters don't distinguish, so the impact on voting intention is minimal.
    I can see it now. Starmers the man to clean up politics after the excesses of the Boris years.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Foxy said:

    Nah, it is sleaze in government that bothers them. "Chuck 'em out, the scoundrels" applies to governments not oppositions.
    So if, according to you, the government is so very sleazy, why do the voters appear not to give a toss about it?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,574

    You seem obsessed with The Duchess of Sussex.

    What do you make of this though?

    PRINCE Andrew reportedly told the Queen he wished to dress in Admiral uniform for Prince Philip's funeral - despite deferring the title after the Jeffrey Epstein sex scandal.

    The Duke of York, who stepped back from public duties over his friendship with convicted paedophile Jeffrey Epstein 18 months ago, was made an honorary Vice-Admiral in the Royal Navy on his 55th birthday in 2015.


    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/14643537/prince-andrew-demands-admiral-dress-funeral/
    Bad call by Prince A there.

    Makes him come across like a pantomime version of Kaiser Bill.

    Or a refugee from Colonel Blimp.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,186
    Foxy said:

    Nah, it is sleaze in government that bothers them. "Chuck 'em out, the scoundrels" applies to governments not oppositions.
    No, because that's predicated on a belief that the Opposition will be better when takes office - that's why Blair pledged to be Whiter than White.

    No-one believes that of today's Labour.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    That's probably the problem for the foreseeable future. Of course, this is where populist governments end up. (Challenge: can anyone name a populist government that has caused its country to thrive, as opposed to the members of said government? I genuinely can't, and would be happier if I thought this story had a happy ending.) However, there are two bits of hope.

    First, the government was in a significant pickle in December and has only been saved by the vaccine bounce. The GBP are rewarding and punishing the government reasonably rationally for successes and failures. We're not quite at Latin American standards, even Italian standards, yet. And this government is likely to fail more than it succeeds, because it has BoJo at its head and lickspittles under him.

    Second, events. Although BoJo and co are hollow enough to ignore scandals that would have felled other politicians, funny things can happen. Think back to the expenses scandal. One of the key phrases that people remember from that time is "Duck House". Now Sir Peter Viggers was the MP for my hometown. Career had been over in the 1980s really, should have retired in 2001, but decent cove and mostly harmless. I delivered leaflets for him back in the day. He was far from the worst sinner in the scandal (I think he never got the money for the damn thing) but something about the absurdity of him asking if he could claim for a duck house cut through with the public in a way that worse examples of greed didn't. This scandal, or one of the many that are surely in the pipeline, has the potential for something really trivial that causes the public to turn. Because the public are like that.
    Octavian had quite a populist approach
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,488

    I am not sure about Andrew. He seems to have been very foolish.. Best to keep.out of the limelight,.. just like Ms Markle should. I am actually angrier with Harry for allowing the broadcast to happen.
    Why on earth do you give a toss?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,186

    A feather in his cap then.

    This looks different to previous misdemeanors like Jenrick and the pornographer. It ties some of the earlier accusations against the Johnson Government together. Johnson's popularity is riding high at present, and he seems content for Cameron to take the fall, however when the government starts to struggle, which is inevitable, and another minor scandal hits the headlines, this one will be dredged up, and its effect will gain traction.
    Yes, it is a feather in his cap (as was his suspension of Jeremy Corbyn from the party) and he clearly has ethical integrity.

    But, can he transform the whole of Labour?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,148
    edited April 2021

    So if, according to you, the government is so very sleazy, why do the voters appear not to give a toss about it?
    Sleaze is a slow burner, a corrosive decay, but once it takes hold in the public's mind, it is very hard to reverse. I wouldn't expect the polls to change much this year.

    The achillies heel of the government is that Johnson is incapable of acting on sleaze. He is blind to it, because honesty is so alien to him, and he likes to be popular by doing favours for chums.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,574

    Unbelievable. In what dark recess of his tiny brain does Andrew think he merits the uniform of Admiral?
    I think he's currently entitled to Vice Admiral as honorary rank (Senior Royal?). Due to his own service it is Commander. Was due for Admiral on is 60th Birthday but it got sat on.

    https://www.thegazette.co.uk/London/issue/61160/supplement/3798

    He's being a fool trying to bugger with status at a Private Funeral.
This discussion has been closed.