The complacency of Conservatives is tangible. Clear signs that they’ve been in power too long. Remember this with Labour and the Tories before them. Change will not come overnight, but the rot is setting in.
You remind me of the prisoners in Colditz in WW2, cultivating death watch beetles in the rafters. They were sure the rot was setting in too.
"Radiohead Unearth Thom Yorke’s 2005 From the Basement Concert: Watch The solo piano set featured early versions of songs from In Rainbows and The Eraser"
The complacency of Conservatives is tangible. Clear signs that they’ve been in power too long. Remember this with Labour and the Tories before them. Change will not come overnight, but the rot is setting in.
You remind me of the prisoners in Colditz in WW2, cultivating death watch beetles in the rafters. They were sure the rot was setting in too.
Last reports, Colditz stands.
To be fair though after that experience someone could go on to become Q and come up with even more bizarre inventions.
Ukrainian Minister of Defense Andriy Taran estimated that the number of Russian troops located near Ukraine's borders will reach 110k with 56 battalion tactical groups. Taran said that Russia had 42k servicemen in Crimea that have been integrated into joint strike forces with a number of kinetic systems for offensive military operations, specifically an operation from Crimea to secure the water supply to the peninsula."
The complacency of Conservatives is tangible. Clear signs that they’ve been in power too long. Remember this with Labour and the Tories before them. Change will not come overnight, but the rot is setting in.
You remind me of the prisoners in Colditz in WW2, cultivating death watch beetles in the rafters. They were sure the rot was setting in too.
Last reports, Colditz stands.
I don’t think it’s controversial to say we must, surely, have seen the Tory maximum for this cycle? Defeat in 23/24 looks unlikely but holding power beyond 28/29 would be a hell of an achievement (and awful for the country in my view - in general, securing things like Brexit notwithstanding, I tend to favour 8-10 years each in a perpetual cycle as stable, sensible, and good for the country).
Ukrainian Minister of Defense Andriy Taran estimated that the number of Russian troops located near Ukraine's borders will reach 110k with 56 battalion tactical groups. Taran said that Russia had 42k servicemen in Crimea that have been integrated into joint strike forces with a number of kinetic systems for offensive military operations, specifically an operation from Crimea to secure the water supply to the peninsula."
"Science has proved Boris Johnson wrong – vaccines are reducing deaths and cases Study reveals stark difference in figures for elderly people who have been vaccinated compared to those who have not
There may well be something in this. I've been looking at some of the work of stattos who seem to have taken a even handed, straight down the line view through the Covid epidemic. Their recent outputs all suggest that cases, hospitalisations and deaths amongst the main vaccinated groups have fallen disproportionately versus others and that there is a clear vaccine effect over the suppressive effect caused by tight restrictions.
I've even seen suggestions that the vaccination program may have reduced the death count by anywhere between 8k & 12k.
Two other common messages seem to come out of the figures. 1. There is viable evidence that vaccination is also reducing transmissions not just severity of illness as measured by hospitalisation & 2. We are still some way off of the utopia of effective herd immunity ceated by a highly vaccinated population. Way, way off, like, merely halfway there.
Ukrainian Minister of Defense Andriy Taran estimated that the number of Russian troops located near Ukraine's borders will reach 110k with 56 battalion tactical groups. Taran said that Russia had 42k servicemen in Crimea that have been integrated into joint strike forces with a number of kinetic systems for offensive military operations, specifically an operation from Crimea to secure the water supply to the peninsula."
The complacency of Conservatives is tangible. Clear signs that they’ve been in power too long. Remember this with Labour and the Tories before them. Change will not come overnight, but the rot is setting in.
You remind me of the prisoners in Colditz in WW2, cultivating death watch beetles in the rafters. They were sure the rot was setting in too.
Last reports, Colditz stands.
My Politics Professor would insist that Oppositions don't win elections, Governments lose them.
"Radiohead Unearth Thom Yorke’s 2005 From the Basement Concert: Watch The solo piano set featured early versions of songs from In Rainbows and The Eraser"
The cases look pretty decent; there's only one local authority area with a seven day rate above 100 per 100k left, and the zones of extremely low prevalence are gradually edging across the map.
The death count, however... if that becomes sticky then the excuse for stalling the unlockdown plan presents itself. The fact that maybe 11,000 people kick the bucket every week in the UK is irrelevant: 250-odd is an entire Airbus-A330 load of corpses every week, and will be presented (and understood by ignorant and frightened members of the public) in those sorts of terms. Casualties enormous, not safe, sorry.
Nah; personally, I've been expecting a brief plateau until the second doses kick in. It's at a very low level, the CFR is down to 0.4% (from over 3.6% in December), and the Hospitalisation Fatality Rate down to under 8% (from over 33% in early January). If I could see it coming, the Government could as well. Arguably, they evidently did, with the big pivot to Second Dose April. I really can't see any case for slowing the unlocking. Hospitalisations down to around 200 per day, as well.
(And besides; ignore the reported day figures nowadays; they're far too noisy. We're at "low twenties to high teens" of deaths per day, with occasional spikes upwards and downwards; the deaths-by-date-occurred data is heavily lagged, but when things are changing so slowly, there's no reason not to wait for it any more)
I think that we may soon be at the point (or maybe we're already there) where the death figures on the standard 'death [from any cause] within 28 days of a positive Covid test' become seriously misleading. My reasoning is as follows: imagine the vaccines are very highly effective at preventing serious illness and death, but not so effective at preventing low-level infections which PCR tests can pick up, which is very much what is expected. In that case, you'd get to the point where most of the 'Covid deaths' really do become deaths with Covid rather than deaths caused by Covid, but they'd still show up in the 28-day cutoff figures, which would therefore flatten off to become just the background figure of non-Covid deaths multiplied by the proportion of the population testing positive with mild or asymptomatic cases.
Of course the Covid deniers were claiming that months ago, which was nonsense given the scale of deaths at the time, but there must come a point, if the vaccinations work as we think they probably do, where it would be true. What's more, most of those spurious figures would show up amongst the elderly.
The fact that we're now getting negative 'excess' deaths would tend to support this hypothesis.
This is what I was trying to articulate last night, badly, after five pints.
I suggest @LostPassword uses your explanation instead!
My guess is that we will find that the majority of Covid deaths, if the vaccines don't stop Covid circulating altogether, will be among those who are unvaccinated, and therefore genuinely deaths due to Covid, rather than coincidental.
Comments
Last reports, Colditz stands.
"Radiohead Unearth Thom Yorke’s 2005 From the Basement Concert: Watch
The solo piano set featured early versions of songs from In Rainbows and The Eraser"
https://pitchfork.com/news/radiohead-unearth-thom-yorkes-2005-from-the-basement-concert-watch/
Ukrainian Minister of Defense Andriy Taran estimated that the number of Russian troops located near Ukraine's borders will reach 110k with 56 battalion tactical groups. Taran said that Russia had 42k servicemen in Crimea that have been integrated into joint strike forces with a number of kinetic systems for offensive military operations, specifically an operation from Crimea to secure the water supply to the peninsula."
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1382453105128833027
Lincoln Allison lays bare the strictly non-socialist argument for the NHS"
https://thecritic.co.uk/the-right-wing-case-for-the-nhs/
I've even seen suggestions that the vaccination program may have reduced the death count by anywhere between 8k & 12k.
Two other common messages seem to come out of the figures. 1. There is viable evidence that vaccination is also reducing transmissions not just severity of illness as measured by hospitalisation & 2. We are still some way off of the utopia of effective herd immunity ceated by a highly vaccinated population. Way, way off, like, merely halfway there.
The situation at the border is becoming ‘untenable’, an executive at the west London airport said."
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/heathrow-travellers-london-mps-england-b929667.html