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The Scottish leader ratings suggest that LAB might beat the Tories for second place – politicalbetti

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  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,232
    isam said:

    There were several opportunities to stop this, but Remain MPs gambled on overturning the vote they’d been elected to honour instead
    I think you have just created an angle to wholly burden the uncharismatic and hapless Starmer, as Shadow Brexit Secretary, for the bus fire on the Shankhill Road. Well done!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,495
    HYUFD said:

    Boris could even have chosen to make his career as a headmaster in a large state school and be earning more than he is as UK PM (albeit he would not get Chequers or No 10)

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10313631/four-school-heads-earn-200k-year/
    Ummmm...I don’t think he would have made it to Headmaster. Certainly in the state sector.

    In fact he would have struggled to make it through his training year.

    Although he could have been a civil servant, joined the DfE, and then gone on to be CEO of a MAT. They don’t have to be qualified teachers or, given my experience of some, have any brains at all.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,306
    Now I know what the fanbois see when they look at BJ.

    https://twitter.com/thoughtland/status/1380096470947352576?s=21
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,232
    ydoethur said:

    Ummmm...I don’t think he would have made it to Headmaster. Certainly in the state sector.

    In fact he would have struggled to make it through his training year.

    Although he could have been a civil servant, joined the DfE, and then gone on to be CEO of a MAT. They don’t have to be qualified teachers or, given my experience of some, have any brains at all.
    For reasons of safeguarding, I am assuming a boys only school, staffed entirely by males.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    If the Tories are over 40% (which they would need to be to form a deal with Abolish which is the only way RT becomes FM), then RT would likely scrap the Senedd anyway with Abolish and Wales would return to full union with England. RT would clearly not be unelectable in Wales, the opposite, he would be the most successful Tory leader in Wales ever if he got over 40%.

    RT would get rewarded with a safe seat at Westminster then after
    I would happily see the end of the Welsh Assembly and were I still residing there would vote for the Abolish the Welsh Assembly party on the List Vote.. However, I am not aware that the Assembly has the power to abolish itself. That would require primary legislation from Westminster which is unlikely to be forthcoming without a further Referendum to signify approval.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Philip is seldom troubled by detail, or indeed facts.
    At least I could recognise the fact that NI is part of the UK's customs territory. As explicitly recognised by international law with in the Withdrawal Agreement.

    It seems others are more troubled by detail and facts than I am.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,712
    edited April 2021

    None of Article 5 changes the fact that the NI is part of the UK's customs union.

    Article 5 puts in place provisions that are currently in operation, which should be superseded by us invoking Article 16.

    The fact that NI is part of our territory, combined with Article 16, squares the circle.
    Um all of Article 5 changes the way NI is treated which is why as I said before I need to make a customs declaration to send a birthday present to NI.

    Trying to correct your misunderstandings is like arguing with Ian Paisley but at least Ian Paisley gave an entertaining sermon if you went to his church.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,232
    eek said:

    nor in fact reality or seemingly a job...
    Mind you, I can't talk today with several unopened files on my desk.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    eek said:

    Um all of Article 5 changes the way NI is treated which is why as I said before I need to make a customs declaration to send a birthday present to NI.

    Trying to correct your misunderstandings is like arguing with Ian Paisley but at least Ian Paisley gave an entertaining sermon if you went to his church.
    Yes Article 5 exists, it is the Protocol, I acknowledged that.

    Article 16 also exists.

    Which part of that are you struggling with?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,992
    ydoethur said:

    Ummmm...I don’t think he would have made it to Headmaster. Certainly in the state sector.

    In fact he would have struggled to make it through his training year.

    Although he could have been a civil servant, joined the DfE, and then gone on to be CEO of a MAT. They don’t have to be qualified teachers or, given my experience of some, have any brains at all.
    Well the headmaster of Eton also makes over £200,000 a year so more than he gets as PM too, if he only ever worked in independent schools and got to be head (you do not need QTS to work in private schools, a classics degree from Oxford will do)

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/holland-park-school-london-colin-hall-academy-ceo-pay-salary-a9255176.html

    If he had joined the DfE the permanent secretary there makes £217,651, again more than his PM salary
    https://www.glassdoor.co.uk/Salary/The-Department-for-Education-UK-Permanent-Secretary-Salaries-E419688_D_KO32,51.htm#:~:text=£211,769 - £217,651&text=The typical The Department for,from £211,769 - £217,651.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,495

    Mind you, I can't talk today with several unopened files on my desk.
    I’m taking a break to watch some cricket after smashing a large hole in a door.

    No, I didn’t mistake it for Gavin Williamson, I’m fitting a new lock.

    But I can’t do more until the actual lock arrives.

    Well, that’s the excuse.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,232

    At least I could recognise the fact that NI is part of the UK's customs territory. As explicitly recognised by international law with in the Withdrawal Agreement.

    It seems others are more troubled by detail and facts than I am.
    And in what parallel reality does paragraph 1 exist? Hint: one with no border in the North Channel!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,992
    LDs also gaining from the Greens
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,495
    HYUFD said:

    Well the headmaster of Eton also makes over £200,000 a year so more than he gets as PM too, if he only ever worked in independent schools and got to be head (you do not need QTS to work in private schools, a classics degree from Oxford will do)

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/holland-park-school-london-colin-hall-academy-ceo-pay-salary-a9255176.html

    If he had joined the DfE the permanent secretary there makes £217,651, again more than his PM salary
    https://www.glassdoor.co.uk/Salary/The-Department-for-Education-UK-Permanent-Secretary-Salaries-E419688_D_KO32,51.htm#:~:text=£211,769 - £217,651&text=The typical The Department for,from £211,769 - £217,651.
    You don’t actually *need* QTS to work in most of the state sector, it’s just very unusual to get interviews if you don’t have it.

    Leaving aside safeguarding, he simply doesn’t have the organisational or administrative skills to make it to the top in teaching. There is a reason why he succeeds brilliantly where campaigning is key and falls flat on his face in all his executive roles.
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 509
    Sinn Fein must be delighted that people are blaming the rioting on Brexit and only Brexit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,992
    edited April 2021
    Labour would pick up Havering and Redbridge on the below swing since 2016, otherwise no change in London Assembly constituencies

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1380108837785583617?s=20
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1380109113213001733?s=20
  • isamisam Posts: 41,287
    Cookie said:
    Quite bizarre. Where do they get these Grey-tinted spectacles?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,712

    Sinn Fein must be delighted that people are blaming the rioting on Brexit and only Brexit.

    The Nationalists aren't rioting unless I'm missing a whole pile of news.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    And in what parallel reality does paragraph 1 exist? Hint: one with no border in the North Channel!
    It exists in this reality, it is part of the Treaty. You were wrong and I was right and the EU recognises that fact.

    If we invoke Article 16 we can do whatever we need to "safeguard" the "societal difficulties that are liable to persist" "in order to remedy the situation".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,992
    ydoethur said:

    You don’t actually *need* QTS to work in most of the state sector, it’s just very unusual to get interviews if you don’t have it.

    Leaving aside safeguarding, he simply doesn’t have the organisational or administrative skills to make it to the top in teaching. There is a reason why he succeeds brilliantly where campaigning is key and falls flat on his face in all his executive roles.
    If he was not PM Boris would probably make the most money as a stand up comedian
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    eek said:

    The Nationalists aren't rioting unless I'm missing a whole pile of news.
    The Loyalist rioting was triggered by 2000 attending a Sinn Fein funeral in breach of the law.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Cookie said:
    It's a boost if he faces a leadership challenge which is a strong possibility IMO this summer.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,287

    I think you have just created an angle to wholly burden the uncharismatic and hapless Starmer, as Shadow Brexit Secretary, for the bus fire on the Shankhill Road. Well done!
    Haha no I was on this one whilst the deals were getting defeated in 2017/18!
  • eekeek Posts: 29,712
    ydoethur said:

    I’m taking a break to watch some cricket after smashing a large hole in a door.

    No, I didn’t mistake it for Gavin Williamson, I’m fitting a new lock.

    But I can’t do more until the actual lock arrives.

    Well, that’s the excuse.
    Nor can you leave the room / house (for security purposes) until the lock arrives so you have no choice but to watch the cricket

    A perfect excuse.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,287
    Brom said:

    It's a boost if he faces a leadership challenge which is a strong possibility IMO this summer.
    If it’s against Jezza!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,287
    Brom said:

    It's a boost if he faces a leadership challenge which is a strong possibility IMO this summer.
    If it’s against Jezza!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,232

    Sinn Fein must be delighted that people are blaming the rioting on Brexit and only Brexit.

    Thank you for the reminder that I really ought to stop reading nonsense and do some work.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,495
    HYUFD said:

    If he was not PM Boris would probably make the most money as a stand up comedian
    Well, I suppose given I compared teaching to doing stand up five times a day yesterday, I sort of asked for that.

    I would say that his problem though is that he *is* a standup, pretending to be PM.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Indeed. "Why won't you accept a long-term solution where you allow smuggling". Every responsible nation and trading area is happy to accept smuggling....
    Every responsible nation and trading area accepts that smuggling is a fact of life and does their best to police and interdict.

    You are taking a zero-COVID approach to policy
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,379
    The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) ruled on Thursday that compulsory vaccinations are legal and may be necessary in democratic societies.

    The ruling came following the conclusion of a complaint brought to the court by Czech families regarding compulsory jabs for children.

    "The measures could be regarded as being 'necessary in a democratic society'," the court judgment read.

    Although the ruling did not deal directly with COVID-19 vaccines, experts believe it could have implications for vaccination drives against the virus, especially among those who have so far stated a refusal to accept the jab.


    https://www.dw.com/en/echr-rules-obligatory-vaccination-may-be-necessary/a-57128443
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,495
    eek said:

    Nor can you leave the room / house (for security purposes) until the lock arrives so you have no choice but to watch the cricket

    A perfect excuse.
    Good point. I shall say that if anyone suggests I should do something.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    RT has refused to rule out a post election deal with Abolish the Assembly if they had the numbers together for a Senedd majority, remember 49% of Welsh voters even voted against having an Assembly in 1997

    https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/senedd-election-2021-conservatives-abolish-20250676
    The figure was 49.7%. There ought to have been a recount - a mere 6000 votes separated the Yes and No votes.
  • It is not going to be smooth sailing into 2023/2024.

    Brexit problems are coming home to roost and the economy - which is in a hole - seems to not being focussed on at present.

    No period in recent political history has been easy, this will be no different.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,712
    Charles said:

    Every responsible nation and trading area accepts that smuggling is a fact of life and does their best to police and interdict.

    You are taking a zero-COVID approach to policy
    Correction - the EU are taking a zero-COVID approach to that policy (and that is their right).
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,996
    edited April 2021
    Is it not the case that Boris had only three choices: the choice of not signing up to Brexit at all; exiting without a deal; and exiting with a deal which explicitly included an NI deal which could not be implemented.

    Choice one was politically impossible given the Referendum result.

    Choice two was possible politically but only until about 5 minutes after it happened at which point we would be in unknown unknowns immediately.

    Choice three was the only sane and politically possible option. That is what he did, knowing that he had to be terminologically inexact about it, and that it could not stand, and that therefore on another day, which is now coming, all parties - EU, NI, RoI, UK - will have to renegotiate the deal either openly or secretly.

    One of the great recent unknowns, and part of me would love to know the answer, is: What would the EU RoI have done if Boris had, impossibly, left without a deal and simply left the border open. The problem, with no solution, would then be thrown onto the EU/RoI. Boris, being Boris, must have felt tempted sometimes.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,208
    eek said:

    The Nationalists aren't rioting unless I'm missing a whole pile of news.
    Give it time...
    HYUFD said:

    Labour would pick up Havering and Redbridge on the below swing since 2016, otherwise no change in London Assembly constituencies

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1380108837785583617?s=20
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1380109113213001733?s=20

    Tories will happily take that in London.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,359
    eek said:

    The Nationalists aren't rioting unless I'm missing a whole pile of news.
    You missed that bit last night then.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    eek said:

    Correction - the EU are taking a zero-COVID approach to that policy (and that is their right).
    Yes we're getting somewhere. It is their right.

    It is our right to take a zero-COVID approach to "societal difficulties" as per Article 16 and to override Article 5 as a result. That is also within our right.

    We all have rights. If they take a zero-COVID approach on one, we can reciprocate, then we end up in dispute resolution. But since A16 has been invoked (if they do my policy) and since NI is part of the UK customs territory (as explicitly recognised) then we are in control. Our zero COVID and their zero COVID collide, there's no checks in Belfast, then we need to figure out next steps.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    It is not going to be smooth sailing into 2023/2024.

    Brexit problems are coming home to roost and the economy - which is in a hole - seems to not being focussed on at present.

    No period in recent political history has been easy, this will be no different.

    The economy, you say? Oh dear.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/04/06/uk-growth-tipped-outstrip-us-europe/

    Britain will clock up faster economic growth than the US and Europe next year as the recovery is turbocharged by the country's world-leading vaccination scheme and a Treasury spending spree, the International Monetary Fund has said...

    Paging @Mexicanpete :smile:
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,785

    @RochdalePioneers @eek @Nigel_Foremain you are 100% wrong.

    image

    "RECALLING that Northern Ireland is part of the customs territory of the United Kingdom

    The Withdrawal Agreement, as ratified by the EU, the RoI, the UK and as hosted on the EU's own website says it explicitly. Northern Ireland is part of the customs territory of the United Kingdom, there are no ifs or buts about that, that is international law. Checkmate.

    What am I wrong on precisely you pillock? Checkmate?!! I doubt you would win against a five year old in a game of draughts! Actually you would probably find "snap" a little perplexing
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,815
    edited April 2021
    eek said:

    Correction - the EU are taking a zero-COVID approach to that policy (and that is their right).
    Is it? The EU agreed to work on a trusted trader scheme. I see no evidence they have done so. As Charles has pointed out, it takes 95% of the current issues away.
  • Been in a meeting for an hour so have missed Philip's comedy arrogance.

    GB and NI are now legally separate from a customs perspective. I need to apply for an export licence to ship products to NI from GB, I do not inside GB. Philip can mock and laugh and cite whatever nonsense he likes. The UK government are clear that NI is not in customs union with GB as any trader knows very well.

    If Philip wants to disagree with the UK government on this issue then perhaps we just let him and move on.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Alba on 2%? Opinium is clearly gold standard.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,232
    edited April 2021

    The economy, you say? Oh dear.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/04/06/uk-growth-tipped-outstrip-us-europe/

    Britain will clock up faster economic growth than the US and Europe next year as the recovery is turbocharged by the country's world-leading vaccination scheme and a Treasury spending spree, the International Monetary Fund has said...

    Paging @Mexicanpete :smile:
    I'm still here, and I have no doubt there will be a short term spending led boom as the punters blow their furlough savings on anything that takes their fancy. There will also be a burgeoning boom in small business growth as the Government incentivises 'start-ups' and every High Street can boast a dozen barber shops and sandwich bars.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    What am I wrong on precisely you pillock? Checkmate?!! I doubt you would win against a five year old in a game of draughts! Actually you would probably find "snap" a little perplexing
    You were wrong in falsely claiming that NI was part of the EU's customs territory not the UK's. It is explicitly recognised as the other way around, NI is part of the UK's territory.

    The NI Protocol was quite clever. If there's no societal difficulties likely to persist from the Protocol then who cares, life goes on.

    If there are societal difficulties likely to persist then the Protocol Article 16 gives the UK (and the EU) unilateral rights to do whatever it considers necessary to resolve those difficulties.

    So either way we have no issue. If there's no difficulties there's no problem. If there are difficulties (and everyone agrees there are) we invoke Article 16 and move on.

    That's why it was clever negotiations.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,801
    MaxPB said:

    Is it? The EU agreed to work on a trusted trader scheme. I see no evidence they have done so. As Charles has pointed out, it takes 95% of the current issues away.
    They complained that the UK wanted too many trusted traders.

    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1364693472503070731
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Been in a meeting for an hour so have missed Philip's comedy arrogance.

    GB and NI are now legally separate from a customs perspective. I need to apply for an export licence to ship products to NI from GB, I do not inside GB. Philip can mock and laugh and cite whatever nonsense he likes. The UK government are clear that NI is not in customs union with GB as any trader knows very well.

    If Philip wants to disagree with the UK government on this issue then perhaps we just let him and move on.

    The UK government and EU and ROI government and WTO all say you're wrong.

    They're only separated de facto by decisions taken within the Protocol Article 5 that can be replaced under Protocol Article 16 if there are societal difficulties.

    So the question to answer is are there societal difficulties, yes or no? If yes, invoke Article 16 and move on. If no, what's the problem?

    Which is it?
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,359
    edited April 2021

    Off topic

    I acceded to your earlier claim that I was talking nonsense and the national identity- sectarian link had been left in the 1980s, and accepted your "off topic" as such. I am less inclined, now you have demonstrated your 'scratch the surface' partisanship (and I consider my words carefully) in this post, and that you accept Philip Thompson and others' wholly uninformed commentary because it fits your narrative.

    My point was not at all partisan from the point of picking sides with Unionists or Nationalists. I was suggesting that Boris Johnson (and Mrs May before him) have even less understanding than I do, and Johnson in particular, should be treading a lot more carefully than he has to date.
    It doesn't take a genius to know I'm a unionist. No secret that I'm broadly a conservative voter no secret I'm relatively libertarian. All those have been in clear sight since the earliest days of me posting here. Its a political forum. My issue was entirely around the idea that sectarianism defines everything. It doesn't anymore and in many ways never did. If you associate with people, for example, who still talk about the 'war' , a term that most people simply don't recognise, you will be under the impression that religious sectarianism is central because they are the ones feeding it.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,712
    edited April 2021
    MaxPB said:

    Is it? The EU agreed to work on a trusted trader scheme. I see no evidence they have done so. As Charles has pointed out, it takes 95% of the current issues away.
    Now that is a way more valid argument than anything Philip has come up with - however there is zero incentive for the EU to implement a scheme when the UK is very happy for everything to arrive without checks.

    Only were the UK to start being awkward with imports does the EU need to start playing fair. At the moment they've spent months discouraging fresh food imports without anyone in the UK doing anything that would impact equivalent EU companies.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,287
    The sources of ScottP’s tweets really challenge any preconceptions one might have don’t they?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,379
    edited April 2021
    Vaccine manufacture in the EU, anyone?

    It's not officially an export ban, but it's not exactly free trade: It's the murky EU vaccine export strategy.

    According to EU officials and diplomats, Brussels is pressuring vaccine makers to reprioritize shipments to the EU, even if that means other countries, such as Australia, will suffer additional delays. But it's not technically banning those exports.

    In the latest episode of the EU's vaccine procurement drama, Australian government officials on Tuesday claimed the EU had effectively blocked millions of doses of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine. The allegation contradicted the European Commission, which on Wednesday again insisted it had so far only blocked a single shipment to Australia of 250,000 doses. Observers and journalists scrambled to find out which side was right.


    It turns out, both were.

    While the EU officially hasn't blocked more vaccine shipments, it has been leaning on vaccine producers to send doses to the EU instead of other countries.

    Effectively, that means the EU has managed to stop more vaccine exports than those it has officially halted, officials in Brussels and Australia said.

    Australia, for instance, has not received any Oxford/AstraZeneca shipments from the EU since February, according to Canberra, even as the EU continued to receive doses (though far fewer than the company had originally promised).


    https://www.politico.eu/article/vaccine-export-block-europe-coronavirus-astrazeneca/
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited April 2021
    kle4 said:

    Local government tally so far - 4 leaflets from the LDs, 1 from Con.

    Either they are hitting my area early, or I'm going to have an avalanche of paper at the end of this.

    Edit: On Scotland, there will be areas that vote No in any SindyRef, but I cannot see many wanting partition arrangements.

    I have had 2 leaflets from the Greens and 1 from Labour. Also 3 from the Census Office!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,208
    edited April 2021
    Does the London poll show a more general problem for Labour ?

    Firstly let us broadly categorise Labour as centre left-authoritarian (Well they are supporting most covid measures at the moment), the Lib Dems as centre left-libertarian and the greens as well left.
    Further the Tories as right authoritarian and Reform as Right-libertarian

    The right wing vote is split 29/3 whereas the left is split 44/11/11. That leaves London as broadly a 2/3 left / 1/3 right city.

    But the right wing vote is entirely consolidated behind the Tories (91%) whereas Labour has 67% of the left vote.

    Perhaps the most important by-election in the last few years was Peterborough, a Brexit party win would have I think irretrievably split the right vote away from the Tories particularly after the disastrous european elections.
    I know that's oversimplified but it could be a looming issue for Labour in what should be natural left leaning future city heartlands whereas rural England and Wales are almost entirely behind the Tories.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,775
    edited April 2021

    You were wrong in falsely claiming that NI was part of the EU's customs territory not the UK's. It is explicitly recognised as the other way around, NI is part of the UK's territory.

    The NI Protocol was quite clever. If there's no societal difficulties likely to persist from the Protocol then who cares, life goes on.

    If there are societal difficulties likely to persist then the Protocol Article 16 gives the UK (and the EU) unilateral rights to do whatever it considers necessary to resolve those difficulties.

    So either way we have no issue. If there's no difficulties there's no problem. If there are difficulties (and everyone agrees there are) we invoke Article 16 and move on.

    That's why it was clever negotiations.
    Much from you about this today. Energizer bunny.

    In fact I get your position completely, but let’s take the lipstick off the pig. The EU’s biggest red line in Brexit was to protect the integrity of their single market. Since all sides – absolutely everyone - agreed there mustn’t under any circumstances be a border in Ireland it meant a border in the Irish Sea. That solemn undertaking was expressed in the Protocol. Letter and spirit.

    You are saying we should renege on this. We should now refuse to implement the Irish Sea border and present them with a ‘devil and deep blue sea’ choice – put up a border in Ireland after all or accept a violation of the integrity of the single market. Which, I repeat, was their biggest red line, perhaps their one and only genuine red line.

    “Tough,” you might say. Or “Cool, we win!” We protect the UK single market and if they put a border across Ireland and it causes trouble that’s “on them” (to use the rather chippy phrase that the more bumptious Leavers seem to like). Also “on them” if they choose to live with a hole in their single market. Ditto if they take us to court and get embroiled in that for years. All on them.

    And you’re right in a sense. It is on them. It’s on them for assuming that the UK government was negotiating the Brexit deal in good faith. For assuming that Boris Johnson and Michael Gove were not a political incarnation of Delboy and Rodney.

    But now they know better, and so does the rest of the world. It’s a “win” at the price of looking like a rogue nation that has chosen to defect from normal good practice in international affairs and instead conduct itself according to the grubby character of the individual who just happens to be our PM at this moment.

    Yay.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,992
    edited April 2021
    Galloway is standing in South Scotland on the list where he lives, so he could get in with votes from Tories in the Borders given the Tories will largely win most of the constituencies there again.

    Would be amusing if Galloway got in on the list but Salmond did not
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,497
    edited April 2021
    kinabalu said:

    Don't fully agree but you have a point. It sucks in and crowds out.
    London is the brains (and piggybank) of the country. Northern Ireland is its malignant (and expensive) tumour.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    eek said:

    Now that is a way more valid argument than anything Philip has come up with - however there is zero incentive for the EU to implement a scheme when the UK is very happy for everything to arrive without checks.

    Well it is the EU who want "integrity" more than we do, if we invoke Article 16 and cease to do any checks then a trusted trader scheme with 2000 firms is more secure than a free-for-all.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited April 2021

    I'm still here, and I have no doubt there will be a short term spending led boom as the punters blow their furlough savings on anything that takes their fancy. There will also be a burgeoning boom in small business growth as the Government incentivises 'start-ups' and every High Street can boast a dozen barber shops and sandwich bars.
    You 'have no doubt' about that, and yet simultaneously have been telling us every other day that an unavoidable economic crisis is just about to sweep the Tories away. A year of vaccine success, a year of economic boom, and pretty soon you're looking at a substantial chunk of the Parliament in which Boris and the Government will have done nothing but win.

    Still, I'm sure Sir Keir will relish the opportunity to make a fourth impression at that point...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,815
    eek said:

    Now that is a way more valid argument than anything Philip has come up with - however there is zero incentive for the EU to implement a scheme when the UK is very happy for everything to arrive without checks.

    That's a completely circular argument though, the UK government is happy for that to happen because the EU hasn't done anything on the trusted trader scheme it committed itself to implementing. The scheme has to come first before the UK government gives the okay to drop the full exemption on checks.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    ydoethur said:

    A mass debate on a sofa?

    Sounds kinky...
    You shouldn't couch it in those terms...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,495
    felix said:

    You shouldn't couch it in those terms...
    Hmm. Maybe you’re right. How could we cushion the effect?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Cookie said:
    It's the same as the legendary end of the vaccine bounce....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,208
    Fishing said:

    London is the brains (and piggybank) of the country. Northern Ireland is its malignant (and expensive) tumour.
    Yes, as much as us bumpkins might wonder why anyone wants to pay 1500 a month for a small cupboard beneath the stairs, London does serve an important purpose. NI, not so much.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kinabalu said:

    Much from you about this today. Energizer bunny.

    In fact I get your position completely, but let’s take the lipstick off the pig. The EU’s biggest red line in Brexit was to protect the integrity of their single market. Since all sides – absolutely everyone - agreed there mustn’t under any circumstances be a border in Ireland it meant a border in the Irish Sea. That solemn undertaking was expressed in the Protocol. Letter and spirit.

    You are saying we should renege on this. We should now refuse to implement the Irish Sea border and present them with a ‘devil and deep blue sea’ choice – put up a border in Ireland after all or accept a violation of the integrity of the single market. Which, I repeat, was their biggest red line, perhaps their one and only genuine red line.

    “Tough,” you might say. Or “Cool, we win!” We protect the UK single market and if they put a border across Ireland and it causes trouble that’s “on them” (to use the rather chippy phrase that the more bumptious Leavers seem to like). Also “on them” if they choose to live with a hole in their single market. Ditto if they take us to court and get embroiled in that for years. All on them.

    And you’re right in a sense. It is on them. It’s on them for assuming that the UK government was negotiating the Brexit deal in good faith. For assuming that Boris Johnson and Michael Gove were not a political incarnation of Delboy and Rodney.

    But now they know better, and so does the rest of the world. It’s a “win” at the price of looking like a rogue nation that has chosen to defect from normal good practice in international affairs and instead conduct itself according to the grubby character of the individual who just happens to be our PM at this moment.

    Yay.
    You're very close, you nearly have it, but are wrong in a single critical point.

    The NI Protocol gave conditions so long as they did not cause societal difficulties. I'm not saying we should be a "rogue nation" I'm saying we should exercise powers they agreed to in the Protocol. Be very solemn and sober and say things like "with deep regret there are ongoing societal problems that are likely to persist. The safety, security of Northern Ireland and the peace process must always come first, as both the UK and EU agreed, so with deep regret we need to invoke Article 16 to resolve these issues. This will be a temporary invocation until the UK and EU, in talks with all affected communities, can come to a solution that respects the peace process."

    Don't be jingoistic and say "we win", that's between us, just keep being sombre and emphasising the peace process first and foremost. This is purely to ensure peace.

    Who around the world would think we're grubby for putting peace first? The EU should have seen this coming before the Protocol was signed, many warned that there would be societal difficulties if this happened, but now that the warnings have come true the responsible thing to do is put peace first.

    That's it really.
  • Got to love the George. Endless entertainment.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,232
    Yokes said:

    It doesn't take a genius to know I'm a unionist. No secret that I'm broadly a conservative voter no secret I'm relatively libertarian. All those have been in clear sight since the earliest days of me posting here. Its a political forum. My issue was entirely around the idea that sectarianism defines everything. It doesn't anymore and in many ways never did. If you associate with people, for example, who still talk about the 'war' , a term that most people simply don't recognise, you will be under the impression that religious sectarianism is central because they are the ones feeding it.
    With all due respect, I do not meet people who are consumed by the past. All are keen to get on with their lives. I do meet genuine people from both sides of the fence, one (from Antrim) told me that from a moderate Unionist perspective he enters the polling booth to vote Alliance, in order to put the partisan past behind him, but as the pencil touches the ballot paper old habits die hard and he votes DUP, he suggested moderate SF voters do the same.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,302
    Happy Thatcher's Death Day to all the pb tories. 🖤

    This is your Yawm Ashura so enjoy.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,208
    The EMA's conclusions were correct and entirely consistent with the MHRA yesterday. If other countries followed our JCVI priority order, healthy 18 - 30s wouldn't get the AZ dose in the EU either.
    Crucially our JCVI and MHRA are linked up, the EU has no JCVI sole equivalent.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    ydoethur said:

    Hmm. Maybe you’re right. How could we cushion the effect?
    Throw them out?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,232

    You 'have no doubt' about that, and yet simultaneously have been telling us every other day that an unavoidable economic crisis is just about to sweep the Tories away. A year of vaccine success, a year of economic boom, and pretty soon you're looking at a substantial chunk of the Parliament in which Boris and the Government will have done nothing but win.

    Still, I'm sure Sir Keir will relish the opportunity to make a fourth impression at that point...
    I also have no doubt that what follows the boom will be bust. Don't forget a generational change in economic activity has occurred in a year. That is hard to manage.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,727
    kinabalu said:

    Much from you about this today. Energizer bunny.

    In fact I get your position completely, but let’s take the lipstick off the pig. The EU’s biggest red line in Brexit was to protect the integrity of their single market. Since all sides – absolutely everyone - agreed there mustn’t under any circumstances be a border in Ireland it meant a border in the Irish Sea. That solemn undertaking was expressed in the Protocol. Letter and spirit.

    You are saying we should renege on this. We should now refuse to implement the Irish Sea border and present them with a ‘devil and deep blue sea’ choice – put up a border in Ireland after all or accept a violation of the integrity of the single market. Which, I repeat, was their biggest red line, perhaps their one and only genuine red line.

    “Tough,” you might say. Or “Cool, we win!” We protect the UK single market and if they put a border across Ireland and it causes trouble that’s “on them” (to use the rather chippy phrase that the more bumptious Leavers seem to like). Also “on them” if they choose to live with a hole in their single market. Ditto if they take us to court and get embroiled in that for years. All on them.

    And you’re right in a sense. It is on them. It’s on them for assuming that the UK government was negotiating the Brexit deal in good faith. For assuming that Boris Johnson and Michael Gove were not a political incarnation of Delboy and Rodney.

    But now they know better, and so does the rest of the world. It’s a “win” at the price of looking like a rogue nation that has chosen to defect from normal good practice in international affairs and instead conduct itself according to the grubby character of the individual who just happens to be our PM at this moment.

    Yay.
    Except that your precious EU, so keen to defend the integrity of the single market, decided to put a border across Ireland and the single market WITHOUT EVEN ASKING IRELAND and only changed their minds when told, in slow simple words, that this was the most moronic act in EU history, which is quite some feat in itself

    Bollocks to all this "red line holding", "legalistic" "rules-based organisation" crapola about the EU.

    The EU is nothing of the sort. It bends and breaks rules all the time. From the Fiskal Kompakt to Spitzenkandidat, from letting Greece in the euro to shattering the rules on ECB borrowing to the smuggling of the EU Constitution past the voters by ignoring referendums, it is a grotesque bureaucratic racket. Fuck the EU. They are owed no debt of honour, the word is not in the EU lexicon.

    What the EU is, however, is a pragmatic, slow-moving entity which serves to increase the wealth of its major states, especially France and Germany, even if it sometimes fails at this, quite badly.

    It is time for that pragmatism to take over. If they can adopt an entire Constitution via a swindle, they can ignore a few chocolate hobnobs crossing a customs desk in Carrickfergus
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,775
    Fishing said:

    London is the brains (and piggybank) of the country. Northern Ireland is its malignant (and expensive) tumour.
    I don't look upon impoverished regions of the country as being like malignant tumours. If in polemical mood I'd describe the City as being exactly like that - but let's just say that imo there are significant downsides to London's dominance and that I'd prefer a greater spread of wealth and opportunity.

    Great place to live though.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,495
    felix said:

    Throw them out?
    Good idea, I’ll settle for that.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,287
    I wonder whether there will be common underlying conditions between the people who have had the adverse effects to AZ?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,232
    Dura_Ace said:

    Happy Thatcher's Death Day to all the pb tories. 🖤

    This is your Yawm Ashura so enjoy.

    Not always posting with the best possible taste.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,712
    edited April 2021
    MaxPB said:

    That's a completely circular argument though, the UK government is happy for that to happen because the EU hasn't done anything on the trusted trader scheme it committed itself to implementing. The scheme has to come first before the UK government gives the okay to drop the full exemption on checks.
    So are we implementing such a scheme ourselves? I don't believe we are which is why the EU isn't.

    And currently our lack of a scheme isn't impacting the EU's exporters but their lack of a scheme is impacting ours.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,775
    HYUFD said:

    Galloway is standing in South Scotland on the list where he lives, so he could get in with votes from Tories in the Borders given the Tories will largely win most of the constituencies there again.

    Would be amusing if Galloway got in on the list but Salmond did not
    Why must he always wear that hat?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,727
    isam said:

    I wonder whether there will be common underlying conditions between the people who have had the adverse effects to AZ?
    Jonathan Van Tam needs to go to jail. This is what they have done, alongside Macron and the "German health official" who briefed Handelsblatt
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,359

    With all due respect, I do not meet people who are consumed by the past. All are keen to get on with their lives. I do meet genuine people from both sides of the fence, one (from Antrim) told me that from a moderate Unionist perspective he enters the polling booth to vote Alliance, in order to put the partisan past behind him, but as the pencil touches the ballot paper old habits die hard and he votes DUP, he suggested moderate SF voters do the same.
    Take a look at the two largest parties unionist & nationalist. They have or are stalling. Is that the death of sectarianism? No, but yes because some people are concluding they aren't running stuff too well and making Stormont work, i.e. normal politics.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,600
    ydoethur said:

    A mass debate on a sofa?

    Sounds kinky...
    MEPs.

    Innit.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,232
    Yokes said:

    Take a look at the two largest parties unionist & nationalist. They have or are stalling. Is that the death of sectarianism? No, but yes because some people are concluding they aren't running stuff too well and making Stormont work, i.e. normal politics.
    A fair point, and I hope you are correct.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,915
    edited April 2021
    isam said:

    I wonder whether there will be common underlying conditions between the people who have had the adverse effects to AZ?
    Got to be likely, hasn't it?

    That's one thing not taken into account in their risk chart.

    How likely were the people who had bad reactions to the vaccine to have bad reactions to the virus?

    We can't be sure their risks were the same as the general population.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,789
    edited April 2021
    Yokes said:

    Take a look at the two largest parties unionist & nationalist. They have or are stalling. Is that the death of sectarianism? No, but yes because some people are concluding they aren't running stuff too well and making Stormont work, i.e. normal politics.
    Sounds like there's a prisoners' dilemma thing going on here. Each side would like to vote for the non-sectarian lot. Yet they don't trust the other sect not to vote for their sectarian lot.

  • eekeek Posts: 29,712
    edited April 2021
    Leon said:

    Except that your precious EU, so keen to defend the integrity of the single market, decided to put a border across Ireland and the single market WITHOUT EVEN ASKING IRELAND and only changed their minds when told, in slow simple words, that this was the most moronic act in EU history, which is quite some feat in itself

    Bollocks to all this "red line holding", "legalistic" "rules-based organisation" crapola about the EU.

    The EU is nothing of the sort. It bends and breaks rules all the time. From the Fiskal Kompakt to Spitzenkandidat, from letting Greece in the euro to shattering the rules on ECB borrowing to the smuggling of the EU Constitution past the voters by ignoring referendums, it is a grotesque bureaucratic racket. Fuck the EU. They are owed no debt of honour, the word is not in the EU lexicon.

    What the EU is, however, is a pragmatic, slow-moving entity which serves to increase the wealth of its major states, especially France and Germany, even if it sometimes fails at this, quite badly.

    It is time for that pragmatism to take over. If they can adopt an entire Constitution via a swindle, they can ignore a few chocolate hobnobs crossing a customs desk in Carrickfergus
    The EU does what is in their best interest.

    Currently the EU believes it is in their best interest that no chocolate hobnobs enter the EU (including Northern Ireland) without a whole lot of extra paperwork.

    The question is how do you change the game so it's in the EU's interest to ignore those hobnobs and I really don't think there is a way of doing so that Boris could politically accept.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    ydoethur said:

    Good idea, I’ll settle for that.
    Maybe keep the pouffees?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,815
    eek said:

    So are we implementing such a scheme ourselves? I don't believe we are which is why the EU isn't.

    And currently our lack of a scheme isn't impacting the EU's exporters but their lack of a scheme is impacting ours.

    No, it's a one way scheme for GB to NI that was agreed, the wider UK-EU one hasn't been formally agreed yet and is still being discussed. The implementation of it rests almost entirely with the EU though I'm sure the UK could assist if asked.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,653
    For all those both sides of the question people out there.

    https://twitter.com/bhgreeley/status/1379766072530853891
This discussion has been closed.