A year on for Starmer and he has yet been able to shake the hands of a single voter – politicalbetti
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OrGallowgate said:
I think while there's a certain amount of narrative control on both sides but rationally the following points are simultaneously true:kinabalu said:
It will be a genuine surprise and a boost if Labour can win a WWC Leave stronghold like Hartlepool so soon after a triumphant Brexit cum vaccines and with no BXP in play.Nemtynakht said:
It will hardly be a surprise. 50/50 in a seat they hold. Are you writing the lines for labour media rounds on the night? If so can I suggest the followingkinabalu said:
We don't know, is my point. Very exceptional circumstances. If the polls are still looking bad this time next year I will start to worry. But right now I'm quite relaxed. Not exactly optimistic but neither the opposite.isam said:
That would all make sense if he hadn’t led the polls for a while, and those leads been feted as an example of his great leadership by his fans. You can’t take the bouquets and swerve the brickbats. Now, as more don’t knows make their minds up, he is disliked, not trusted and thought of as weakkinabalu said:Yes, this is why it's ludicrous to be writing off Starmer due to current mediocre ratings. There has been nothing but Covid since he got the job. No space for the opposition to attack and carve out a strong and distinctive identity. Just no appetite for it amongst the public (as opposed to winky wonky geeks like us).
Keir: "Today, I set out why this government is the worst in modern times. A bunch of total charlatans, led by a prize example of the breed, who might have lucked out on vaccines, as even the blind squirrel will eventually stumble on a nut, but other than that are an utter disaster, and what's worse do not give a flying fig so long as they can keep on shoving the moolah in the direction of their fatcat mates".
Public: "Oh shut up for fuck's sake you irritating little man. We want to hear from Boris about the roadmap."
This has been the political landscape and dynamic of the pandemic. Starmer knows this and has cut his cloth accordingly. He's ridden it out with the objective of 'do no damage' and he has succeeded. He is ready to roll now, as normal life resumes and normal politics resumes. It's game on.
Hartlepool will be interesting. If Labour can pull off a surprise win there I will start to feel positively bullish.
- the Tories really should be doing better in London
- Labour have really held on through difficult times in Liverpool
- Labour haven't exploded in Scotland, our message is beginning to cut through
The Tory lines will inevitably include those around losing seats in the middle of a parliament, unprecedented and unpredictable times, and didn't we do well on vaccines
People can laugh all they like but this is a new politics for which we need a new punditry. I'm happy to be the one forging it.
- It would be disappointing for Labour not win a seat in their historic heartlands, during midterm as the opposition.
- It would be a good result for Labour to win the seat due to its demographics and the results of the GE 2019 election regarding BREXIT/CON vote splitting..
It would be a horrendous failure of SKS leadership if he became the first post war Labour leader to lose his first By Election where LAB were the incumbent
It would be a poor result for Labour if with BREXIT now done they did not win easily back at 2017 margin of over 7k
SKS has a hand picked Candidate and the success (or otherwise) of the campaign in Hartlepool is entirely his (no excuses)
FWIW I expect a LAB win with a disappointing margin of 2k1 -
Of course you're an entirely neutral and objective party here, aren't you? Nothing to do with your anti-Keir position?bigjohnowls said:
OrGallowgate said:
I think while there's a certain amount of narrative control on both sides but rationally the following points are simultaneously true:kinabalu said:
It will be a genuine surprise and a boost if Labour can win a WWC Leave stronghold like Hartlepool so soon after a triumphant Brexit cum vaccines and with no BXP in play.Nemtynakht said:
It will hardly be a surprise. 50/50 in a seat they hold. Are you writing the lines for labour media rounds on the night? If so can I suggest the followingkinabalu said:
We don't know, is my point. Very exceptional circumstances. If the polls are still looking bad this time next year I will start to worry. But right now I'm quite relaxed. Not exactly optimistic but neither the opposite.isam said:
That would all make sense if he hadn’t led the polls for a while, and those leads been feted as an example of his great leadership by his fans. You can’t take the bouquets and swerve the brickbats. Now, as more don’t knows make their minds up, he is disliked, not trusted and thought of as weakkinabalu said:Yes, this is why it's ludicrous to be writing off Starmer due to current mediocre ratings. There has been nothing but Covid since he got the job. No space for the opposition to attack and carve out a strong and distinctive identity. Just no appetite for it amongst the public (as opposed to winky wonky geeks like us).
Keir: "Today, I set out why this government is the worst in modern times. A bunch of total charlatans, led by a prize example of the breed, who might have lucked out on vaccines, as even the blind squirrel will eventually stumble on a nut, but other than that are an utter disaster, and what's worse do not give a flying fig so long as they can keep on shoving the moolah in the direction of their fatcat mates".
Public: "Oh shut up for fuck's sake you irritating little man. We want to hear from Boris about the roadmap."
This has been the political landscape and dynamic of the pandemic. Starmer knows this and has cut his cloth accordingly. He's ridden it out with the objective of 'do no damage' and he has succeeded. He is ready to roll now, as normal life resumes and normal politics resumes. It's game on.
Hartlepool will be interesting. If Labour can pull off a surprise win there I will start to feel positively bullish.
- the Tories really should be doing better in London
- Labour have really held on through difficult times in Liverpool
- Labour haven't exploded in Scotland, our message is beginning to cut through
The Tory lines will inevitably include those around losing seats in the middle of a parliament, unprecedented and unpredictable times, and didn't we do well on vaccines
People can laugh all they like but this is a new politics for which we need a new punditry. I'm happy to be the one forging it.
- It would be disappointing for Labour not win a seat in their historic heartlands, during midterm as the opposition.
- It would be a good result for Labour to win the seat due to its demographics and the results of the GE 2019 election regarding BREXIT/CON vote splitting..
It would be a horrendous failure of SKS leadership if he became the first post war Labour leader to lose his first By Election where LAB were the incumbent
It would be a poor result for Labour if with BREXIT now done they did not win easily back at 2017 margin of over 7k
SKS has a hand picked Candidate and the success (or otherwise) of the campaign in Hartlepool is entirely his (no excuses)
FWIW I expect a LAB win with a disappointing margin of 2k0 -
What's that Guido phrase?kinabalu said:
It will be a genuine surprise and a boost if Labour can win a WWC Leave stronghold like Hartlepool so soon after a triumphant Brexit cum vaccines and with no BXP in play.Nemtynakht said:
It will hardly be a surprise. 50/50 in a seat they hold. Are you writing the lines for labour media rounds on the night? If so can I suggest the followingkinabalu said:
We don't know, is my point. Very exceptional circumstances. If the polls are still looking bad this time next year I will start to worry. But right now I'm quite relaxed. Not exactly optimistic but neither the opposite.isam said:
That would all make sense if he hadn’t led the polls for a while, and those leads been feted as an example of his great leadership by his fans. You can’t take the bouquets and swerve the brickbats. Now, as more don’t knows make their minds up, he is disliked, not trusted and thought of as weakkinabalu said:Yes, this is why it's ludicrous to be writing off Starmer due to current mediocre ratings. There has been nothing but Covid since he got the job. No space for the opposition to attack and carve out a strong and distinctive identity. Just no appetite for it amongst the public (as opposed to winky wonky geeks like us).
Keir: "Today, I set out why this government is the worst in modern times. A bunch of total charlatans, led by a prize example of the breed, who might have lucked out on vaccines, as even the blind squirrel will eventually stumble on a nut, but other than that are an utter disaster, and what's worse do not give a flying fig so long as they can keep on shoving the moolah in the direction of their fatcat mates".
Public: "Oh shut up for fuck's sake you irritating little man. We want to hear from Boris about the roadmap."
This has been the political landscape and dynamic of the pandemic. Starmer knows this and has cut his cloth accordingly. He's ridden it out with the objective of 'do no damage' and he has succeeded. He is ready to roll now, as normal life resumes and normal politics resumes. It's game on.
Hartlepool will be interesting. If Labour can pull off a surprise win there I will start to feel positively bullish.
- the Tories really should be doing better in London
- Labour have really held on through difficult times in Liverpool
- Labour haven't exploded in Scotland, our message is beginning to cut through
The Tory lines will inevitably include those around losing seats in the middle of a parliament, unprecedented and unpredictable times, and didn't we do well on vaccines
People can laugh all they like but this is a new politics for which we need a new punditry. I'm happy to be the one forging it.
Ah yes - The Profundity of the Punditry.
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We have been doing our normal midweek meetup since the last of us got their first vaccine so 5 people from 5 householdsGallowgate said:@Andy_JS I hope its not news to Boris that almost everyone on my street appears to have had at the very least 1 guest over, indoors, this week.
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Exactly. He has effectively changed his frigging mind in the space of 24 hours on one of the most far reaching policy decisions he may ever have to oppose or support.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I doubt Lucy Powell would have endorsed them for large events if Starmer was opposedrottenborough said:"after telling this newspaper yesterday that vaccine passports were against “the British instinct”, [Starmer's] aides then rushed to explain that this didn’t mean he actually opposes them."
Telegraph.
Starmer in a nutshell it seems.
He would have been one of the leading Trojans welcoming their lovely new wooden horse into the city.1 -
LAB have a chance to re-establish some credibility if they oppose domestic vaccine passports.
Will they?0 -
I agree, @Horse.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Do you think this is something the Tories should try and resolve though? It makes no difference to them politically - to me it's just not right to allow it to continue.HYUFD said:
We will see, hopefully the tighter controls on immigration now and building more affordable housing via local plans should help.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If house prices keep jacking up, in a few decades the rest of the country is going to have the same problem, or the market crashes. Wouldn't want to be holding that bomb.HYUFD said:
Yes, an average salary in London will not get you anywhere near enough to buy a property there, an average salary in the North and Midlands however will normally get you a very nice family home in those regions.Sean_F said:
I think it's a big part of it. People on high incomes who can only afford to rent, due to high house prices, are less likely to vote Conservative than people on average incomes who can afford to buy their own home.rottenborough said:
Are people in London voting Labour because they can't afford to buy a house?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1377947167260729347
So, why don't we stop implementing policies that jack house prices up?
No? Okay then, just watch London go further and further to Labour
I suspect there is a lot more to it than that.
I've seen this in the constituency I work in. Enfield North has seen home ownership decline from c.70% in 2000, to around 50% now. Conservative support has dropped sharply in the wards where this has been most pronounced, like Enfield Lock, Turkey Street, Southbury. The constituency as a whole has gone from a historic marginal to now very safely Labour.
London probably doesn't matter much to the Conservatives now, but it's not a trend they would wish to see replicated across the country.
Hence London is moving ever more Labour and the North and Midlands have moved Tory
At the moment there is a huge house price divide in England, in the North East the average house price is just £174,116 compared to an average house price of £670,601 in London.
In the West Midlands the average house price is just £245,048 compared to an average house price of £438,998 in the South East
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-England.html
Abolish CGT on main dwellings.
All those Londoners have nothing to lose but 20% of their speculative profits. Unless they overreached
There might be an argument for only applying it to pre-2010 profits.1 -
If most people live in an expensive property and own it then that is no problem for the Tories, if however most people live in an expensive property and rent it that is a problem for the Tories.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Do you think this is something the Tories should try and resolve though? It makes no difference to them politically - to me it's just not right to allow it to continue.HYUFD said:
We will see, hopefully the tighter controls on immigration now and building more affordable housing via local plans should help.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If house prices keep jacking up, in a few decades the rest of the country is going to have the same problem, or the market crashes. Wouldn't want to be holding that bomb.HYUFD said:
Yes, an average salary in London will not get you anywhere near enough to buy a property there, an average salary in the North and Midlands however will normally get you a very nice family home in those regions.Sean_F said:
I think it's a big part of it. People on high incomes who can only afford to rent, due to high house prices, are less likely to vote Conservative than people on average incomes who can afford to buy their own home.rottenborough said:
Are people in London voting Labour because they can't afford to buy a house?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1377947167260729347
So, why don't we stop implementing policies that jack house prices up?
No? Okay then, just watch London go further and further to Labour
I suspect there is a lot more to it than that.
I've seen this in the constituency I work in. Enfield North has seen home ownership decline from c.70% in 2000, to around 50% now. Conservative support has dropped sharply in the wards where this has been most pronounced, like Enfield Lock, Turkey Street, Southbury. The constituency as a whole has gone from a historic marginal to now very safely Labour.
London probably doesn't matter much to the Conservatives now, but it's not a trend they would wish to see replicated across the country.
Hence London is moving ever more Labour and the North and Midlands have moved Tory
At the moment there is a huge house price divide in England, in the North East the average house price is just £174,116 compared to an average house price of £670,601 in London.
In the West Midlands the average house price is just £245,048 compared to an average house price of £438,998 in the South East
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-England.html
If you live in an expensive property and rent it you are less likely to vote Tory than if you live in a cheaper property and own it.
Hence while the Tories have seen a swing to them north of Watford since 2015, in the South they have seen barely any swing at all and in London they have actually seen a swing against them.0 -
Look, he's just doing his best to become Priam Minister...rottenborough said:
Exactly. He has effectively changed his frigging mind in the space of 24 hours on one of the most far reaching policy decisions he may ever have to oppose or support.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I doubt Lucy Powell would have endorsed them for large events if Starmer was opposedrottenborough said:"after telling this newspaper yesterday that vaccine passports were against “the British instinct”, [Starmer's] aides then rushed to explain that this didn’t mean he actually opposes them."
Telegraph.
Starmer in a nutshell it seems.
He would have been one of the leading Trojans welcoming their lovely new wooden horse into the city.1 -
I expect the opposition to come in the form of civil disobedience just like it is for a lot of shops. Most shops have signs up for masks but don't try and enforce it. Most places will similarly say you have to log in but do nothing to enforce it.londonpubman said:LAB have a chance to re-establish some credibility if they oppose domestic vaccine passports.
Will they?0 -
Because getting enough of the population covered will slam prevalence into the ground, as is happening in Israel now.noneoftheabove said:
Why is this going to be different in 2025?Andy_JS said:0 -
For awesome substitute 'only place with wages high enough that they can begin to hope of buying a house'CorrectHorseBattery said:
Average age? A lot of younger people migrate to London because it's awesome.Sean_F said:
There are other factors, such as ethnicity, and Brexit. But, some ethnic minorities in London (eg Indians, Jews) have shifted towards the Conservatives (eg Harrow East, Hendon, Finchley & Golders Green), and 40% of Londoners supported Brexit. I think housing is the biggest issue working against the Conservatives in London.HYUFD said:
Yes, an average salary in London will not get you anywhere near enough to buy a property there, an average salary in the North and Midlands however will normally get you a very nice family home in those regions.Sean_F said:
I think it's a big part of it. People on high incomes who can only afford to rent, due to high house prices, are less likely to vote Conservative than people on average incomes who can afford to buy their own home.rottenborough said:
Are people in London voting Labour because they can't afford to buy a house?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1377947167260729347
So, why don't we stop implementing policies that jack house prices up?
No? Okay then, just watch London go further and further to Labour
I suspect there is a lot more to it than that.
I've seen this in the constituency I work in. Enfield North has seen home ownership decline from c.70% in 2000, to around 50% now. Conservative support has dropped sharply in the wards where this has been most pronounced, like Enfield Lock, Turkey Street, Southbury. The constituency as a whole has gone from a historic marginal to now very safely Labour.
London probably doesn't matter much to the Conservatives now, but it's not a trend they would wish to see replicated across the country.
Hence London is moving ever more Labour and the North and Midlands have moved Tory0 -
The only way to stop house prices going up is to build more houses. It isn't rocket science.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1377947167260729347
So, why don't we stop implementing policies that jack house prices up?
No? Okay then, just watch London go further and further to Labour
Despite your perverse obsession with the insane notion that taxing buyers more makes buying easier.1 -
Doesn't bloody look like it.londonpubman said:LAB have a chance to re-establish some credibility if they oppose domestic vaccine passports.
Will they?
Yesterday evening it looked like this madcap scheme was dead thanks to 40 backbench Tory stalwarts and Sir K and Liberals.
Now it is back on according to Lucy 'track 'em all, see if I care' Powell.
0 -
Have we seen any scientific evidence to back Gottlieb's claim that the Oxford vector is 'so immunogenic'? If that is true, it is a major blow to Oxford, as it means that the vector itself is a once (or few) and done vehicle for vaccines of any type - i.e. their adenovirus vector cannot be used now for COVID, and then later for Ebola/next emerging pandemic.RobD said:
If only they had a pan-European medicines agency that could advise on such matters. Utterly bonkers.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Maybe Julia and Toby are right then?noneoftheabove said:
Why is this going to be different in 2025?Andy_JS said:
0 -
Deleted - incorrect.bigjohnowls said:
OrGallowgate said:
I think while there's a certain amount of narrative control on both sides but rationally the following points are simultaneously true:kinabalu said:
It will be a genuine surprise and a boost if Labour can win a WWC Leave stronghold like Hartlepool so soon after a triumphant Brexit cum vaccines and with no BXP in play.Nemtynakht said:
It will hardly be a surprise. 50/50 in a seat they hold. Are you writing the lines for labour media rounds on the night? If so can I suggest the followingkinabalu said:
We don't know, is my point. Very exceptional circumstances. If the polls are still looking bad this time next year I will start to worry. But right now I'm quite relaxed. Not exactly optimistic but neither the opposite.isam said:
That would all make sense if he hadn’t led the polls for a while, and those leads been feted as an example of his great leadership by his fans. You can’t take the bouquets and swerve the brickbats. Now, as more don’t knows make their minds up, he is disliked, not trusted and thought of as weakkinabalu said:Yes, this is why it's ludicrous to be writing off Starmer due to current mediocre ratings. There has been nothing but Covid since he got the job. No space for the opposition to attack and carve out a strong and distinctive identity. Just no appetite for it amongst the public (as opposed to winky wonky geeks like us).
Keir: "Today, I set out why this government is the worst in modern times. A bunch of total charlatans, led by a prize example of the breed, who might have lucked out on vaccines, as even the blind squirrel will eventually stumble on a nut, but other than that are an utter disaster, and what's worse do not give a flying fig so long as they can keep on shoving the moolah in the direction of their fatcat mates".
Public: "Oh shut up for fuck's sake you irritating little man. We want to hear from Boris about the roadmap."
This has been the political landscape and dynamic of the pandemic. Starmer knows this and has cut his cloth accordingly. He's ridden it out with the objective of 'do no damage' and he has succeeded. He is ready to roll now, as normal life resumes and normal politics resumes. It's game on.
Hartlepool will be interesting. If Labour can pull off a surprise win there I will start to feel positively bullish.
- the Tories really should be doing better in London
- Labour have really held on through difficult times in Liverpool
- Labour haven't exploded in Scotland, our message is beginning to cut through
The Tory lines will inevitably include those around losing seats in the middle of a parliament, unprecedented and unpredictable times, and didn't we do well on vaccines
People can laugh all they like but this is a new politics for which we need a new punditry. I'm happy to be the one forging it.
- It would be disappointing for Labour not win a seat in their historic heartlands, during midterm as the opposition.
- It would be a good result for Labour to win the seat due to its demographics and the results of the GE 2019 election regarding BREXIT/CON vote splitting..
It would be a horrendous failure of SKS leadership if he became the first post war Labour leader to lose his first By Election where LAB were the incumbent
It would be a poor result for Labour if with BREXIT now done they did not win easily back at 2017 margin of over 7k
SKS has a hand picked Candidate and the success (or otherwise) of the campaign in Hartlepool is entirely his (no excuses)
FWIW I expect a LAB win with a disappointing margin of 2k1 -
You don’t pay CGT on a main dwelling.MattW said:
I agree, @Horse.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Do you think this is something the Tories should try and resolve though? It makes no difference to them politically - to me it's just not right to allow it to continue.HYUFD said:
We will see, hopefully the tighter controls on immigration now and building more affordable housing via local plans should help.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If house prices keep jacking up, in a few decades the rest of the country is going to have the same problem, or the market crashes. Wouldn't want to be holding that bomb.HYUFD said:
Yes, an average salary in London will not get you anywhere near enough to buy a property there, an average salary in the North and Midlands however will normally get you a very nice family home in those regions.Sean_F said:
I think it's a big part of it. People on high incomes who can only afford to rent, due to high house prices, are less likely to vote Conservative than people on average incomes who can afford to buy their own home.rottenborough said:
Are people in London voting Labour because they can't afford to buy a house?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1377947167260729347
So, why don't we stop implementing policies that jack house prices up?
No? Okay then, just watch London go further and further to Labour
I suspect there is a lot more to it than that.
I've seen this in the constituency I work in. Enfield North has seen home ownership decline from c.70% in 2000, to around 50% now. Conservative support has dropped sharply in the wards where this has been most pronounced, like Enfield Lock, Turkey Street, Southbury. The constituency as a whole has gone from a historic marginal to now very safely Labour.
London probably doesn't matter much to the Conservatives now, but it's not a trend they would wish to see replicated across the country.
Hence London is moving ever more Labour and the North and Midlands have moved Tory
At the moment there is a huge house price divide in England, in the North East the average house price is just £174,116 compared to an average house price of £670,601 in London.
In the West Midlands the average house price is just £245,048 compared to an average house price of £438,998 in the South East
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-England.html
Abolish CGT on main dwellings.
All those Londoners have nothing to lose but 20% of their speculative profits. Unless they overreached
There might be an argument for only applying it to pre-2010 profits.0 -
I think they are being badly misled by polls on this anyway as I pointed out certainly the ipsos mori poll was a somewhat leading question implying if they brought them in they could unlock sooner when the question should have been "Come june 21st when we unlock fully do you believe you should need a vaxport for the following"rottenborough said:
Doesn't bloody look like it.londonpubman said:LAB have a chance to re-establish some credibility if they oppose domestic vaccine passports.
Will they?
Yesterday evening it looked like this madcap scheme was dead thanks to 40 backbench Tory stalwarts and Sir K and Liberals.
Now it is back on according to Lucy 'track 'em all, see if I care' Powell.
The other way I think they are being misled is I don't think people will be "I am voting for x because they supported vaxports" , I don't see it as shifting votes. However conversely the anti's tend to be a lot more likely to shift votes because of it0 -
Well, he needs to Troy harder.BluestBlue said:
Look, he's just doing his best to become Priam Minister...rottenborough said:
Exactly. He has effectively changed his frigging mind in the space of 24 hours on one of the most far reaching policy decisions he may ever have to oppose or support.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I doubt Lucy Powell would have endorsed them for large events if Starmer was opposedrottenborough said:"after telling this newspaper yesterday that vaccine passports were against “the British instinct”, [Starmer's] aides then rushed to explain that this didn’t mean he actually opposes them."
Telegraph.
Starmer in a nutshell it seems.
He would have been one of the leading Trojans welcoming their lovely new wooden horse into the city.0 -
Point of Order conceded.ydoethur said:
You don’t pay CGT on a main dwelling.MattW said:
I agree, @Horse.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Do you think this is something the Tories should try and resolve though? It makes no difference to them politically - to me it's just not right to allow it to continue.HYUFD said:
We will see, hopefully the tighter controls on immigration now and building more affordable housing via local plans should help.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If house prices keep jacking up, in a few decades the rest of the country is going to have the same problem, or the market crashes. Wouldn't want to be holding that bomb.HYUFD said:
Yes, an average salary in London will not get you anywhere near enough to buy a property there, an average salary in the North and Midlands however will normally get you a very nice family home in those regions.Sean_F said:
I think it's a big part of it. People on high incomes who can only afford to rent, due to high house prices, are less likely to vote Conservative than people on average incomes who can afford to buy their own home.rottenborough said:
Are people in London voting Labour because they can't afford to buy a house?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1377947167260729347
So, why don't we stop implementing policies that jack house prices up?
No? Okay then, just watch London go further and further to Labour
I suspect there is a lot more to it than that.
I've seen this in the constituency I work in. Enfield North has seen home ownership decline from c.70% in 2000, to around 50% now. Conservative support has dropped sharply in the wards where this has been most pronounced, like Enfield Lock, Turkey Street, Southbury. The constituency as a whole has gone from a historic marginal to now very safely Labour.
London probably doesn't matter much to the Conservatives now, but it's not a trend they would wish to see replicated across the country.
Hence London is moving ever more Labour and the North and Midlands have moved Tory
At the moment there is a huge house price divide in England, in the North East the average house price is just £174,116 compared to an average house price of £670,601 in London.
In the West Midlands the average house price is just £245,048 compared to an average house price of £438,998 in the South East
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-England.html
Abolish CGT on main dwellings.
All those Londoners have nothing to lose but 20% of their speculative profits. Unless they overreached
There might be an argument for only applying it to pre-2010 profits.
Abolish exemption of CGT on Main Dwellings !!2 -
Sorry, my mistake - there were earlier by-elections Labour held on in. Had the bloody chart upside down...bigjohnowls said:
OrGallowgate said:
I think while there's a certain amount of narrative control on both sides but rationally the following points are simultaneously true:kinabalu said:
It will be a genuine surprise and a boost if Labour can win a WWC Leave stronghold like Hartlepool so soon after a triumphant Brexit cum vaccines and with no BXP in play.Nemtynakht said:
It will hardly be a surprise. 50/50 in a seat they hold. Are you writing the lines for labour media rounds on the night? If so can I suggest the followingkinabalu said:
We don't know, is my point. Very exceptional circumstances. If the polls are still looking bad this time next year I will start to worry. But right now I'm quite relaxed. Not exactly optimistic but neither the opposite.isam said:
That would all make sense if he hadn’t led the polls for a while, and those leads been feted as an example of his great leadership by his fans. You can’t take the bouquets and swerve the brickbats. Now, as more don’t knows make their minds up, he is disliked, not trusted and thought of as weakkinabalu said:Yes, this is why it's ludicrous to be writing off Starmer due to current mediocre ratings. There has been nothing but Covid since he got the job. No space for the opposition to attack and carve out a strong and distinctive identity. Just no appetite for it amongst the public (as opposed to winky wonky geeks like us).
Keir: "Today, I set out why this government is the worst in modern times. A bunch of total charlatans, led by a prize example of the breed, who might have lucked out on vaccines, as even the blind squirrel will eventually stumble on a nut, but other than that are an utter disaster, and what's worse do not give a flying fig so long as they can keep on shoving the moolah in the direction of their fatcat mates".
Public: "Oh shut up for fuck's sake you irritating little man. We want to hear from Boris about the roadmap."
This has been the political landscape and dynamic of the pandemic. Starmer knows this and has cut his cloth accordingly. He's ridden it out with the objective of 'do no damage' and he has succeeded. He is ready to roll now, as normal life resumes and normal politics resumes. It's game on.
Hartlepool will be interesting. If Labour can pull off a surprise win there I will start to feel positively bullish.
- the Tories really should be doing better in London
- Labour have really held on through difficult times in Liverpool
- Labour haven't exploded in Scotland, our message is beginning to cut through
The Tory lines will inevitably include those around losing seats in the middle of a parliament, unprecedented and unpredictable times, and didn't we do well on vaccines
People can laugh all they like but this is a new politics for which we need a new punditry. I'm happy to be the one forging it.
- It would be disappointing for Labour not win a seat in their historic heartlands, during midterm as the opposition.
- It would be a good result for Labour to win the seat due to its demographics and the results of the GE 2019 election regarding BREXIT/CON vote splitting..
It would be a horrendous failure of SKS leadership if he became the first post war Labour leader to lose his first By Election where LAB were the incumbent
It would be a poor result for Labour if with BREXIT now done they did not win easily back at 2017 margin of over 7k
SKS has a hand picked Candidate and the success (or otherwise) of the campaign in Hartlepool is entirely his (no excuses)
FWIW I expect a LAB win with a disappointing margin of 2k0 -
The first rule of the government’s culture war is that it has to be fought by the ones who look like their earliest relationship with the flag was being given a wedgie with it at school. Jenrick, Oliver Dowden, Gavin Williamson, Milhouse Van Houten – this is the pool from which your generals are drawn.Scott_xP said:
That stings because it's true.3 -
I was agreeing with youCorrectHorseBattery said:If you're in your 20s and 30s, I genuinely think there is nothing like London in the UK. Beyond that, yeah I will leave
0 -
Given that we're part of the reason that the country has been ripped apart, I'd say it was more than fair.eek said:
Are we given aid to Syria's murderous regime - I would rather hope that we weren't.Simon_Peach said:
And hoover up vaccines for the U.K...OldKingCole said:
And our Governments response is to cut aid.Floater said:0 -
Surely not? I mean, does anyone believe Williamson and Jenrick went to school?Dura_Ace said:
The first rule of the government’s culture war is that it has to be fought by the ones who look like their earliest relationship with the flag was being given a wedgie with it at school. Jenrick, Oliver Dowden, Gavin Williamson, Milhouse Van Houten – this is the pool from which your generals are drawn.Scott_xP said:
That stings because it's true.0 -
-
Does this mean I might not be a 'moaning whore' after all?rottenborough said:
Maybe Julia and Toby are right then?noneoftheabove said:
Why is this going to be different in 2025?Andy_JS said:
0 -
Because that worked so well when they had them beforeHYUFD said:3 -
Labour's abiding sentiment here is envy.rottenborough said:
Doesn't bloody look like it.londonpubman said:LAB have a chance to re-establish some credibility if they oppose domestic vaccine passports.
Will they?
Yesterday evening it looked like this madcap scheme was dead thanks to 40 backbench Tory stalwarts and Sir K and Liberals.
Now it is back on according to Lucy 'track 'em all, see if I care' Powell.
They don't want to give people their liberty back, they want to replace the tories with all the controls that have been imposed in place.
If you really want your liberty back, you are going to have to look outside the main parties.
Which for very, very many people on here, is going to be a big stretch. A massive stretch.0 -
But I thought that there was a shortage of housing in the capital. Why does he want to make it worse?HYUFD said:3 -
Indeed. Because, remarkably, for people with several dwellings, the one being sold tends to be the one they are supposedly living in at the time.MattW said:
Point of Order conceded.ydoethur said:
You don’t pay CGT on a main dwelling.MattW said:
I agree, @Horse.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Do you think this is something the Tories should try and resolve though? It makes no difference to them politically - to me it's just not right to allow it to continue.HYUFD said:
We will see, hopefully the tighter controls on immigration now and building more affordable housing via local plans should help.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If house prices keep jacking up, in a few decades the rest of the country is going to have the same problem, or the market crashes. Wouldn't want to be holding that bomb.HYUFD said:
Yes, an average salary in London will not get you anywhere near enough to buy a property there, an average salary in the North and Midlands however will normally get you a very nice family home in those regions.Sean_F said:
I think it's a big part of it. People on high incomes who can only afford to rent, due to high house prices, are less likely to vote Conservative than people on average incomes who can afford to buy their own home.rottenborough said:
Are people in London voting Labour because they can't afford to buy a house?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1377947167260729347
So, why don't we stop implementing policies that jack house prices up?
No? Okay then, just watch London go further and further to Labour
I suspect there is a lot more to it than that.
I've seen this in the constituency I work in. Enfield North has seen home ownership decline from c.70% in 2000, to around 50% now. Conservative support has dropped sharply in the wards where this has been most pronounced, like Enfield Lock, Turkey Street, Southbury. The constituency as a whole has gone from a historic marginal to now very safely Labour.
London probably doesn't matter much to the Conservatives now, but it's not a trend they would wish to see replicated across the country.
Hence London is moving ever more Labour and the North and Midlands have moved Tory
At the moment there is a huge house price divide in England, in the North East the average house price is just £174,116 compared to an average house price of £670,601 in London.
In the West Midlands the average house price is just £245,048 compared to an average house price of £438,998 in the South East
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-England.html
Abolish CGT on main dwellings.
All those Londoners have nothing to lose but 20% of their speculative profits. Unless they overreached
There might be an argument for only applying it to pre-2010 profits.
Abolish exemption of CGT on Main Dwellings !!0 -
I remember those days when we all stared incredulously at Michael Foot and thought how can a party Leader look so shambolic. How we laughed!Theuniondivvie said:BJ still governing in campaign mode. SKS would look a bit of a berk doing this (as does BJ but that’s his natural habitat) but surely there’s some less berkish equivalent?
https://twitter.com/mikegove12/status/1377900825641693187?s=211 -
Gov't knows people are breaking the rules I expect, it should be baked into SAGE at this point I think.1
-
Is that within the powers of the mayor of London?HYUFD said:0 -
I remember that. It was a flipping scandal.IanB2 said:
Indeed. Because, remarkably, for people with several dwellings, the one being sold tends to be the one they are supposedly living in at the time.MattW said:
Point of Order conceded.ydoethur said:
You don’t pay CGT on a main dwelling.MattW said:
I agree, @Horse.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Do you think this is something the Tories should try and resolve though? It makes no difference to them politically - to me it's just not right to allow it to continue.HYUFD said:
We will see, hopefully the tighter controls on immigration now and building more affordable housing via local plans should help.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If house prices keep jacking up, in a few decades the rest of the country is going to have the same problem, or the market crashes. Wouldn't want to be holding that bomb.HYUFD said:
Yes, an average salary in London will not get you anywhere near enough to buy a property there, an average salary in the North and Midlands however will normally get you a very nice family home in those regions.Sean_F said:
I think it's a big part of it. People on high incomes who can only afford to rent, due to high house prices, are less likely to vote Conservative than people on average incomes who can afford to buy their own home.rottenborough said:
Are people in London voting Labour because they can't afford to buy a house?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1377947167260729347
So, why don't we stop implementing policies that jack house prices up?
No? Okay then, just watch London go further and further to Labour
I suspect there is a lot more to it than that.
I've seen this in the constituency I work in. Enfield North has seen home ownership decline from c.70% in 2000, to around 50% now. Conservative support has dropped sharply in the wards where this has been most pronounced, like Enfield Lock, Turkey Street, Southbury. The constituency as a whole has gone from a historic marginal to now very safely Labour.
London probably doesn't matter much to the Conservatives now, but it's not a trend they would wish to see replicated across the country.
Hence London is moving ever more Labour and the North and Midlands have moved Tory
At the moment there is a huge house price divide in England, in the North East the average house price is just £174,116 compared to an average house price of £670,601 in London.
In the West Midlands the average house price is just £245,048 compared to an average house price of £438,998 in the South East
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-England.html
Abolish CGT on main dwellings.
All those Londoners have nothing to lose but 20% of their speculative profits. Unless they overreached
There might be an argument for only applying it to pre-2010 profits.
Abolish exemption of CGT on Main Dwellings !!0 -
Oh, oh, I've got it. He wants to force BTL landlords out of the market because their rent will no longer cover the borrowings, so more people can buy houses, so more of them will vote Tory so...sorry, as you were.DavidL said:
But I thought that there was a shortage of housing in the capital. Why does he want to make it worse?HYUFD said:2 -
I see the people who hate nuance are out in force today.
Here's Lucy Powell's comments.
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1377934132710363136
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1377936557605261316
As for Boris Johnson's comment about two people vaccinated people not meeting up indoors, I believe he was talking about people who have had just one jab within three weeks.
Once we've all had both jabs then it'll be all hunky dory.
Some people think they become immortal within seconds of receiving their first jab.2 -
To be replaced with what? That’s the issue. Either the state would have to buy these properties, or they would have to be bought by other private buyers. And how many of their tenants would have the money to buy them? Certainly Khan doesn’t.MaxPB said:
I know this is an issue you feel strongly about, and unlike me, you live in London, so what solutions do you have? And would there be easier routes than rent controls, which can have weird unintended consequences like buildings standing empty for years?0 -
For the purposes of having decent quality housing it would be an abject failure.MaxPB said:
And there would be far less to rent for people who need it.
A regressive policy.1 -
I'm no great fan, but when the alternative is Johnson, and/or any one of his henchmen (and Priti) I'd give Starmer a whirl.RochdalePioneers said:Starmer is Meh. That is his primary problem - I can't be roused in either support or damnation as I can other politicians. What makes it worse for him is that I honestly don't think he actually cares about half the stuff he tries to take a position on. He comes across simultaneously as wooden and plastic, a political piece of MFI chipboard furniture with a shiny veneer stuck over to make it look nice.
Rayner, Nandy and Phillips wouldn't get a free ride by the Conservative friends of Johnson either. The "chav" baggage has previously been pointed out on here.0 -
No, you're still moaning like a whore for refusing to have your jab then moaning about lockdown not ending sooner.contrarian said:
Does this mean I might not be a 'moaning whore' after all?rottenborough said:
Maybe Julia and Toby are right then?noneoftheabove said:
Why is this going to be different in 2025?Andy_JS said:
We're 80 days from all legal limits on social contacts being lifted, so long as enough people get vaccinated ASAP.2 -
Does he look over promoted or what?Mexicanpete said:
I remember those days when we all stared incredulously at Michael Foot and thought how can a party Leader look so shambolic. How we laughed!Theuniondivvie said:BJ still governing in campaign mode. SKS would look a bit of a berk doing this (as does BJ but that’s his natural habitat) but surely there’s some less berkish equivalent?
https://twitter.com/mikegove12/status/1377900825641693187?s=210 -
The person in charge of social media Sky News needs sacking if they cannot tell the difference between there, their, and they're.1
-
Takeup by age, England - Figures to 28th March
50-54 83.53%
55-59 91.14%
60-64 96.11%
65-69 93.48%
70-74 96.78%
75-79 101.89% !
80+ 95.17%
Under 50s, 26.73%
2 -
Here, here!CorrectHorseBattery said:
As usual despite the abuse you receive from a bunch of utter twats, you remain polite and insightful.HYUFD said:
If Boris becomes unpopular as Trump was by 2020 or Sarkozy was by 2012 then Starmer could narrowly win despite being a dull leader facing a more charismatic incumbent as Biden and Hollande did.BannedinnParis said:So, Starmer's fate is in the hands of black swans and a change in PM.
Give up now?
However at the moment Boris remains popular enough he would be re elected but there is some time to go until 2024
You are one of the few people on the right here remaining remotely objective beyond "Starmer is shit, he should just quit now" (just imagine the response I would get if I posted that about BoJo) and you always have something interesting to say about the Tories.
Keep posting, ignore the twats.0 -
God, I hate socialists.HYUFD said:3 -
People with half a million pound 95% mortgages in Greater London are gonna be sweating.0
-
Although in defence of Sadiq Khan perhaps he is being cynical, he's seen how popular Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak, and the Tories have become from enacting large pacts of Michael Foot's '83 manifesto and other large parts of socialism since March 2020 and he's thinking perhaps I should follow suit.2
-
From I understand this is one of those policies that is doomed to failure, isnt it? Everywhere it is introduced it causes unexpected consequences.TheScreamingEagles said:
God, I hate socialists.HYUFD said:
I'm all for evidence based policy, even if it is counter to my gut instinct. Please someone show me where rent controls have been net beneficial.1 -
That won't go down well with voters should it come to pass. We all love Boris because he invented all the vaccines to lead the world out of lockdown. People I know who are currently blowing smoke up Johnson's *** are doing so on the understanding that they get to go on hioliday, go to the pub, go to the gym and meet friends in enclosed spaces one their vaccines kick in.ydoethur said:
Well, by that logic we will never be able to meet indoors.Andy_JS said:
It’s not his real reason of course - he’s just afraid that if vaccinated people can meet indoors that will set up howls from the unvaccinated - but really, surely even Cummings would have come up with a more convincing lie than that.
What an idiot he is. I’m embarrassed to think he’s our PM.
Edit - and I also think he’s being very foolish by using the word ‘irreversible.’ Czechia said something similar and it didn’t end well for them. ‘Being cautious so we give ourselves the maximum chance of staying unlocked’ would have been safer.0 -
The USA once again shows why it is an economic monster. The Trump boom was only paused by covid. Now if they could only get their government expenditure under control.williamglenn said:0 -
I'd simply make it unprofitable to be a landlord of existing property and apply a 100% CGT with no capital loss allowance for non-primary residential property. If you can't make money out of the sector the rats will leave the sinking ship.ydoethur said:
To be replaced with what? That’s the issue. Either the state would have to buy these properties, or they would have to be bought by other private buyers. And how many of their tenants would have the money to do so?MaxPB said:
I know this is an issue you feel strongly about, and unlike me, you live in London, so what solutions do you have? And would there be easier routes than rent controls, which can have weird unintended consequences like buildings standing empty for years?
As an incentive to build property I'd offer a 25 year non-transferable build-to-rent allowance that avoids all of the additional taxes, even allowing for the standard 28% CGT rate within that 25 year period (essentially, "sell it you idiot"). I would also backdate this measure so that investors who have built property over the last 25 years aren't ensnared by it plus a couple years for them to sell at 28% CGT.
If the landlords don't like it they can vote for Labour. Oh right.0 -
I see Boris Johnson has confirmed his status as a grade A moron.0
-
I was going to kick off some painting and window repair work to my rented flat this spring.HYUFD said:
I’ll want to defer that now if I’m not sure what Sadiq is planning to do to my ability to set a market rent.0 -
If its happening in Israel now, it will happen in spring/summer in the UK not some indefinite time in the future, maybe a couple of years, maybe longer, oh lets just make state control permanent.turbotubbs said:
Because getting enough of the population covered will slam prevalence into the ground, as is happening in Israel now.noneoftheabove said:
Why is this going to be different in 2025?Andy_JS said:0 -
Since it's Saturday...Malmesbury said:
Screwfix is just the other cheek of the same arse. They all are. Same range of products plus some shite own brand stuff.Nemtynakht said:
Owned by B&QGallowgate said:
Of course serious DIYers use Screwfix!Malmesbury said:
All building professionals profess to hate B&Q. And then use them to get bit and pieces when a project gets stalled. Holding a whole site for the lack of a few concrete saw blades costs...Big_G_NorthWales said:
Many millions doGallowgate said:
I shop at B&Q.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Actually he was interviewed in B & Q, and those who mock Boris are missing the point that he is popular with ordinary voters, who most likely shop at B & Q , and this is precisely why he clicks with the electoratekinabalu said:
State of him. Oh please rescue us.Theuniondivvie said:BJ still governing in campaign mode. SKS would look a bit of a berk doing this (as does BJ but that’s his natural habitat) but surely there’s some less berkish equivalent?
https://twitter.com/mikegove12/status/1377900825641693187?s=21
I think I wrote about how, when the Nightingale's were being built, they used DIY stores to buy the stuff they needed within the hour.
B&Q (and the others) realised that the pro market was worthwhile - hence they carry a certain range of the real brands.
That's not quite right if you know the detail - different product range and prices.
eg B&Q every several years have a branded chainsaw with an Oregon Chain setup, which is self-sharpening, at a price massively cheaper than typical as it is a pro feature.
Quite often the saw effectively comes free.
They are also the place to go if you want to make shelves, as they will cut sheet products into lots of pieces for free. But don't ask them to make coasters from a sheet of 8x4 ply.0 -
During my lifetime the GOP are only in favour of reducing government expenditure and the deficit when there's a Dem in the White House.CursingStone said:
The USA once again shows why it is an economic monster. The Trump boom was only paused by covid. Now if they could only get their government expenditure under control.williamglenn said:2 -
What does he mean by rent controls?TheScreamingEagles said:
God, I hate socialists.HYUFD said:0 -
There is a simple fix to this, if you own more than one house any house you sell is subject to CGT until you get back down to one houseydoethur said:
I remember that. It was a flipping scandal.IanB2 said:
Indeed. Because, remarkably, for people with several dwellings, the one being sold tends to be the one they are supposedly living in at the time.MattW said:
Point of Order conceded.ydoethur said:
You don’t pay CGT on a main dwelling.MattW said:
I agree, @Horse.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Do you think this is something the Tories should try and resolve though? It makes no difference to them politically - to me it's just not right to allow it to continue.HYUFD said:
We will see, hopefully the tighter controls on immigration now and building more affordable housing via local plans should help.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If house prices keep jacking up, in a few decades the rest of the country is going to have the same problem, or the market crashes. Wouldn't want to be holding that bomb.HYUFD said:
Yes, an average salary in London will not get you anywhere near enough to buy a property there, an average salary in the North and Midlands however will normally get you a very nice family home in those regions.Sean_F said:
I think it's a big part of it. People on high incomes who can only afford to rent, due to high house prices, are less likely to vote Conservative than people on average incomes who can afford to buy their own home.rottenborough said:
Are people in London voting Labour because they can't afford to buy a house?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1377947167260729347
So, why don't we stop implementing policies that jack house prices up?
No? Okay then, just watch London go further and further to Labour
I suspect there is a lot more to it than that.
I've seen this in the constituency I work in. Enfield North has seen home ownership decline from c.70% in 2000, to around 50% now. Conservative support has dropped sharply in the wards where this has been most pronounced, like Enfield Lock, Turkey Street, Southbury. The constituency as a whole has gone from a historic marginal to now very safely Labour.
London probably doesn't matter much to the Conservatives now, but it's not a trend they would wish to see replicated across the country.
Hence London is moving ever more Labour and the North and Midlands have moved Tory
At the moment there is a huge house price divide in England, in the North East the average house price is just £174,116 compared to an average house price of £670,601 in London.
In the West Midlands the average house price is just £245,048 compared to an average house price of £438,998 in the South East
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-England.html
Abolish CGT on main dwellings.
All those Londoners have nothing to lose but 20% of their speculative profits. Unless they overreached
There might be an argument for only applying it to pre-2010 profits.
Abolish exemption of CGT on Main Dwellings !!2 -
In principle it seems to me that the biggest issue in London is "investor flats" which have been bought by overseas investors and generally stand empty. If they were being rented out then that would massively reduce the rental costs in general across London. Long-term, if rents came down then it would also ensure that house prices fell / were more reasonable as well.ydoethur said:
To be replaced with what? That’s the issue. Either the state would have to buy these properties, or they would have to be bought by other private buyers. And how many of their tenants would have the money to buy them? Certainly Khan doesn’t.MaxPB said:
I know this is an issue you feel strongly about, and unlike me, you live in London, so what solutions do you have? And would there be easier routes than rent controls, which can have weird unintended consequences like buildings standing empty for years?
Personally I would be massively increasing the taxes and costs for properties which stand empty - not just 'double council tax' but a properly punative 5% of value tax every year if genuinely unused or similar - I just have no idea how to check/manage/define this and deal with genuine exceptions (empty for refurbishment, probate, holiday homes which are used by friends but not formally rented out etc)1 -
https://www.joe.co.uk/news/sadiq-khan-pledges-to-introduce-rent-controls-268784TheWhiteRabbit said:
What does he mean by rent controls?TheScreamingEagles said:
God, I hate socialists.HYUFD said:0 -
This is surely partly the result of several big repub dominated states opening fully and unilaterally, telling Biden, Fauci, Cuomo and Co to go f8ck themselves in the process.CursingStone said:
The USA once again shows why it is an economic monster. The Trump boom was only paused by covid. Now if they could only get their government expenditure under control.williamglenn said:0 -
Not really, it hurts the landlords most and they deserve it.MattW said:
For the purposes of having decent quality housing it would be an abject failure.MaxPB said:
And there would be far less to rent for people who need it.
A regressive policy.0 -
Its like the stopped clock is right twice a day. They have been wrong up to the last month or so, when the combination of the vaccination programme improving the situation combined simultaneously with the government growing increasingly, either or both, frit and authoritarian has led to Julia and Toby being right for the first time in the pandemic.rottenborough said:
Maybe Julia and Toby are right then?noneoftheabove said:
Why is this going to be different in 2025?Andy_JS said:
They deserve no particular praise for being on the right side of this debate now, but yes they are currently right. I doubt it shall last.0 -
Anyhoo back to this lovely weather, lego, and playing cricket.0
-
The only way that a biosecurity state survives the outright suppression of the virus is if the fear factor created by it is replaced by something else. £20,000 fines for setting foot inside your mate's house, or something. Basically a form of fascism implemented through permanent Draconian laws.Mexicanpete said:
That won't go down well with voters should it come to pass. We all love Boris because he invented all the vaccines to lead the world out of lockdown. People I know who are currently blowing smoke up Johnson's *** are doing so on the understanding that they get to go on hioliday, go to the pub, go to the gym and meet friends in enclosed spaces one their vaccines kick in.ydoethur said:
Well, by that logic we will never be able to meet indoors.Andy_JS said:
It’s not his real reason of course - he’s just afraid that if vaccinated people can meet indoors that will set up howls from the unvaccinated - but really, surely even Cummings would have come up with a more convincing lie than that.
What an idiot he is. I’m embarrassed to think he’s our PM.
Edit - and I also think he’s being very foolish by using the word ‘irreversible.’ Czechia said something similar and it didn’t end well for them. ‘Being cautious so we give ourselves the maximum chance of staying unlocked’ would have been safer.
I hope this lot aren't that power crazed, but anyone who trusts them entirely on any given subject is a fool.1 -
No.Gallowgate said:
Is that within the powers of the mayor of London?HYUFD said:2 -
Keep this up much longer and Richard Tice will be putting you down as a 'maybe'TheScreamingEagles said:Although in defence of Sadiq Khan perhaps he is being cynical, he's seen how popular Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak, and the Tories have become from enacting large pacts of Michael Foot's '83 manifesto and other large parts of socialism since March 2020 and he's thinking perhaps I should follow suit.
0 -
No, he looks unlikely however to achieve promotion, or even continue past his 3 months probationary period of employment at B&Q.DavidL said:
Does he look over promoted or what?Mexicanpete said:
I remember those days when we all stared incredulously at Michael Foot and thought how can a party Leader look so shambolic. How we laughed!Theuniondivvie said:BJ still governing in campaign mode. SKS would look a bit of a berk doing this (as does BJ but that’s his natural habitat) but surely there’s some less berkish equivalent?
https://twitter.com/mikegove12/status/1377900825641693187?s=210 -
I don't see how he has the power to legislate on that.HYUFD said:1 -
Unfortunately there is also a simple dodge to that - transfer any properties you own to a limited company.Pagan2 said:
There is a simple fix to this, if you own more than one house any house you sell is subject to CGT until you get back down to one houseydoethur said:
I remember that. It was a flipping scandal.IanB2 said:
Indeed. Because, remarkably, for people with several dwellings, the one being sold tends to be the one they are supposedly living in at the time.MattW said:
Point of Order conceded.ydoethur said:
You don’t pay CGT on a main dwelling.MattW said:
I agree, @Horse.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Do you think this is something the Tories should try and resolve though? It makes no difference to them politically - to me it's just not right to allow it to continue.HYUFD said:
We will see, hopefully the tighter controls on immigration now and building more affordable housing via local plans should help.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If house prices keep jacking up, in a few decades the rest of the country is going to have the same problem, or the market crashes. Wouldn't want to be holding that bomb.HYUFD said:
Yes, an average salary in London will not get you anywhere near enough to buy a property there, an average salary in the North and Midlands however will normally get you a very nice family home in those regions.Sean_F said:
I think it's a big part of it. People on high incomes who can only afford to rent, due to high house prices, are less likely to vote Conservative than people on average incomes who can afford to buy their own home.rottenborough said:
Are people in London voting Labour because they can't afford to buy a house?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1377947167260729347
So, why don't we stop implementing policies that jack house prices up?
No? Okay then, just watch London go further and further to Labour
I suspect there is a lot more to it than that.
I've seen this in the constituency I work in. Enfield North has seen home ownership decline from c.70% in 2000, to around 50% now. Conservative support has dropped sharply in the wards where this has been most pronounced, like Enfield Lock, Turkey Street, Southbury. The constituency as a whole has gone from a historic marginal to now very safely Labour.
London probably doesn't matter much to the Conservatives now, but it's not a trend they would wish to see replicated across the country.
Hence London is moving ever more Labour and the North and Midlands have moved Tory
At the moment there is a huge house price divide in England, in the North East the average house price is just £174,116 compared to an average house price of £670,601 in London.
In the West Midlands the average house price is just £245,048 compared to an average house price of £438,998 in the South East
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-England.html
Abolish CGT on main dwellings.
All those Londoners have nothing to lose but 20% of their speculative profits. Unless they overreached
There might be an argument for only applying it to pre-2010 profits.
Abolish exemption of CGT on Main Dwellings !!0 -
This bastard baby boomers going round again!Pulpstar said:Takeup by age, England - Figures to 28th March
50-54 83.53%
55-59 91.14%
60-64 96.11%
65-69 93.48%
70-74 96.78%
75-79 101.89% !
80+ 95.17%
Under 50s, 26.73%
0 -
You could always sell it to an owner occupier and save yourself the hassle.Gardenwalker said:
I was going to kick off some painting and window repair work to my rented flat this spring.HYUFD said:
I’ll want to defer that now if I’m not sure what Sadiq is planning to do to my ability to set a market rent.1 -
What prompted this heresy?Morris_Dancer said:I see Boris Johnson has confirmed his status as a grade A moron.
0 -
Not an option.MaxPB said:
You could always sell it to an owner occupier and save yourself the hassle.Gardenwalker said:
I was going to kick off some painting and window repair work to my rented flat this spring.HYUFD said:
I’ll want to defer that now if I’m not sure what Sadiq is planning to do to my ability to set a market rent.
Is rented to a banker on transfer from New York and paid for by her employer.0 -
Presumably Khan will be introducing some type of code of conduct for landlords where you are only an approved landlord if you agree not to put up rent etc.
But what he certainly can't do is the old 1970s Rent Act style security of tenure. So if landlords don't like it they can just boot out the tenant and sell the property.
So result may well be increase in owner occupation - albeit that prices may fall.1 -
... Boris Johnson's brand of fiscal socialism is his most positive defining feature. I quite like Khan too.TheScreamingEagles said:
God, I hate socialists.HYUFD said:0 -
Are we?TheScreamingEagles said:
No, you're still moaning like a whore for refusing to have your jab then moaning about lockdown not ending sooner.contrarian said:
Does this mean I might not be a 'moaning whore' after all?rottenborough said:
Maybe Julia and Toby are right then?noneoftheabove said:
Why is this going to be different in 2025?Andy_JS said:
We're 80 days from all legal limits on social contacts being lifted, so long as enough people get vaccinated ASAP.
You'd like to think so, but this is nothing more than ministerial rhetoric: the published advice about Step 4 is absolutely riddled with get out clauses.
I shall believe it when I see it.1 -
-
Introduce a 100% stamp duty rate on transfer. These things are easy to fix.ydoethur said:
Unfortunately there is also a simple dodge to that - transfer any properties you own to a limited company.Pagan2 said:
There is a simple fix to this, if you own more than one house any house you sell is subject to CGT until you get back down to one houseydoethur said:
I remember that. It was a flipping scandal.IanB2 said:
Indeed. Because, remarkably, for people with several dwellings, the one being sold tends to be the one they are supposedly living in at the time.MattW said:
Point of Order conceded.ydoethur said:
You don’t pay CGT on a main dwelling.MattW said:
I agree, @Horse.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Do you think this is something the Tories should try and resolve though? It makes no difference to them politically - to me it's just not right to allow it to continue.HYUFD said:
We will see, hopefully the tighter controls on immigration now and building more affordable housing via local plans should help.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If house prices keep jacking up, in a few decades the rest of the country is going to have the same problem, or the market crashes. Wouldn't want to be holding that bomb.HYUFD said:
Yes, an average salary in London will not get you anywhere near enough to buy a property there, an average salary in the North and Midlands however will normally get you a very nice family home in those regions.Sean_F said:
I think it's a big part of it. People on high incomes who can only afford to rent, due to high house prices, are less likely to vote Conservative than people on average incomes who can afford to buy their own home.rottenborough said:
Are people in London voting Labour because they can't afford to buy a house?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1377947167260729347
So, why don't we stop implementing policies that jack house prices up?
No? Okay then, just watch London go further and further to Labour
I suspect there is a lot more to it than that.
I've seen this in the constituency I work in. Enfield North has seen home ownership decline from c.70% in 2000, to around 50% now. Conservative support has dropped sharply in the wards where this has been most pronounced, like Enfield Lock, Turkey Street, Southbury. The constituency as a whole has gone from a historic marginal to now very safely Labour.
London probably doesn't matter much to the Conservatives now, but it's not a trend they would wish to see replicated across the country.
Hence London is moving ever more Labour and the North and Midlands have moved Tory
At the moment there is a huge house price divide in England, in the North East the average house price is just £174,116 compared to an average house price of £670,601 in London.
In the West Midlands the average house price is just £245,048 compared to an average house price of £438,998 in the South East
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-England.html
Abolish CGT on main dwellings.
All those Londoners have nothing to lose but 20% of their speculative profits. Unless they overreached
There might be an argument for only applying it to pre-2010 profits.
Abolish exemption of CGT on Main Dwellings !!1 -
589,000 Jabs on April 1st1
-
But then you get hit by the Stamp Duty Charge for transferring residential properties into a limited company that Osborne (I believe) initiated. (Might still be worth doing of course, but not exactly 'free')ydoethur said:
Unfortunately there is also a simple dodge to that - transfer any properties you own to a limited company.Pagan2 said:
There is a simple fix to this, if you own more than one house any house you sell is subject to CGT until you get back down to one houseydoethur said:
I remember that. It was a flipping scandal.IanB2 said:
Indeed. Because, remarkably, for people with several dwellings, the one being sold tends to be the one they are supposedly living in at the time.MattW said:
Point of Order conceded.ydoethur said:
You don’t pay CGT on a main dwelling.MattW said:
I agree, @Horse.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Do you think this is something the Tories should try and resolve though? It makes no difference to them politically - to me it's just not right to allow it to continue.HYUFD said:
We will see, hopefully the tighter controls on immigration now and building more affordable housing via local plans should help.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If house prices keep jacking up, in a few decades the rest of the country is going to have the same problem, or the market crashes. Wouldn't want to be holding that bomb.HYUFD said:
Yes, an average salary in London will not get you anywhere near enough to buy a property there, an average salary in the North and Midlands however will normally get you a very nice family home in those regions.Sean_F said:
I think it's a big part of it. People on high incomes who can only afford to rent, due to high house prices, are less likely to vote Conservative than people on average incomes who can afford to buy their own home.rottenborough said:
Are people in London voting Labour because they can't afford to buy a house?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1377947167260729347
So, why don't we stop implementing policies that jack house prices up?
No? Okay then, just watch London go further and further to Labour
I suspect there is a lot more to it than that.
I've seen this in the constituency I work in. Enfield North has seen home ownership decline from c.70% in 2000, to around 50% now. Conservative support has dropped sharply in the wards where this has been most pronounced, like Enfield Lock, Turkey Street, Southbury. The constituency as a whole has gone from a historic marginal to now very safely Labour.
London probably doesn't matter much to the Conservatives now, but it's not a trend they would wish to see replicated across the country.
Hence London is moving ever more Labour and the North and Midlands have moved Tory
At the moment there is a huge house price divide in England, in the North East the average house price is just £174,116 compared to an average house price of £670,601 in London.
In the West Midlands the average house price is just £245,048 compared to an average house price of £438,998 in the South East
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-England.html
Abolish CGT on main dwellings.
All those Londoners have nothing to lose but 20% of their speculative profits. Unless they overreached
There might be an argument for only applying it to pre-2010 profits.
Abolish exemption of CGT on Main Dwellings !!0 -
The Johnson Project is more like Mitterand than Foot. Full commitment to the 'active state' and picking winners through defecit funded interventions.TheScreamingEagles said:Although in defence of Sadiq Khan perhaps he is being cynical, he's seen how popular Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak, and the Tories have become from enacting large pacts of Michael Foot's '83 manifesto and other large parts of socialism since March 2020 and he's thinking perhaps I should follow suit.
1 -
Why no reporting from Wales?Pulpstar said:0 -
It's Sadiq, he probably doesn't know.TheWhiteRabbit said:
What does he mean by rent controls?TheScreamingEagles said:
God, I hate socialists.HYUFD said:
3 -
600k with Wales.Pulpstar said:0 -
You don't get hit with stamp duty, although you are expected to pay CGT on the transfer price.Lennon said:
But then you get hit by the Stamp Duty Charge for transferring residential properties into a limited company that Osborne (I believe) initiated. (Might still be worth doing of course, but not exactly 'free')ydoethur said:
Unfortunately there is also a simple dodge to that - transfer any properties you own to a limited company.Pagan2 said:
There is a simple fix to this, if you own more than one house any house you sell is subject to CGT until you get back down to one houseydoethur said:
I remember that. It was a flipping scandal.IanB2 said:
Indeed. Because, remarkably, for people with several dwellings, the one being sold tends to be the one they are supposedly living in at the time.MattW said:
Point of Order conceded.ydoethur said:
You don’t pay CGT on a main dwelling.MattW said:
I agree, @Horse.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Do you think this is something the Tories should try and resolve though? It makes no difference to them politically - to me it's just not right to allow it to continue.HYUFD said:
We will see, hopefully the tighter controls on immigration now and building more affordable housing via local plans should help.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If house prices keep jacking up, in a few decades the rest of the country is going to have the same problem, or the market crashes. Wouldn't want to be holding that bomb.HYUFD said:
Yes, an average salary in London will not get you anywhere near enough to buy a property there, an average salary in the North and Midlands however will normally get you a very nice family home in those regions.Sean_F said:
I think it's a big part of it. People on high incomes who can only afford to rent, due to high house prices, are less likely to vote Conservative than people on average incomes who can afford to buy their own home.rottenborough said:
Are people in London voting Labour because they can't afford to buy a house?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1377947167260729347
So, why don't we stop implementing policies that jack house prices up?
No? Okay then, just watch London go further and further to Labour
I suspect there is a lot more to it than that.
I've seen this in the constituency I work in. Enfield North has seen home ownership decline from c.70% in 2000, to around 50% now. Conservative support has dropped sharply in the wards where this has been most pronounced, like Enfield Lock, Turkey Street, Southbury. The constituency as a whole has gone from a historic marginal to now very safely Labour.
London probably doesn't matter much to the Conservatives now, but it's not a trend they would wish to see replicated across the country.
Hence London is moving ever more Labour and the North and Midlands have moved Tory
At the moment there is a huge house price divide in England, in the North East the average house price is just £174,116 compared to an average house price of £670,601 in London.
In the West Midlands the average house price is just £245,048 compared to an average house price of £438,998 in the South East
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-England.html
Abolish CGT on main dwellings.
All those Londoners have nothing to lose but 20% of their speculative profits. Unless they overreached
There might be an argument for only applying it to pre-2010 profits.
Abolish exemption of CGT on Main Dwellings !!
Equally, it isn't hard to get round that if you want it to because the regulations are so badly written.
Edit - one casualty of Covid is of course likely to be stamp duty, very probably in favour of CGT on main dwellings instead.0 -
From gov.uk, on Easter reporting: Wales: no data on 2 April and 4 April (note: cases and deaths data released on 5 April and 6 April will both cover 48 hour periods)williamglenn said:
Why no reporting from Wales?Pulpstar said:
0 -
Mr. Dawning, ahem, you may observe this is not the first occasion I have criticised Boris Johnson.0
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MONARCHY = SOCIALISM!TheScreamingEagles said:
God, I hate socialists.HYUFD said: 0 -
It’s the policy that unites economists of every political colour in condemning it. There isn’t a housing situation out there that you can’t make worse by introducing rent controls.CursingStone said:
From I understand this is one of those policies that is doomed to failure, isnt it? Everywhere it is introduced it causes unexpected consequences.TheScreamingEagles said:
God, I hate socialists.HYUFD said:
I'm all for evidence based policy, even if it is counter to my gut instinct. Please someone show me where rent controls have been net beneficial.
The only rent control that works is where the state owns the housing, so the state sets the rent. E.g. (before the PB right has a collective aneurysm) that oh so lefty socialist state of Singapore, where 80% of residents live in state-owned accommodation.
Attempting to fix private housing issues by introducing rent controls is essentially a doomed enterprise that establishes a new, privileged elite (those who happen to occupy housing at the time the rent control is introduced) at the expense of two groups: property owners (to which most on the left would probably say: bring it on ) but also, future renters & those on the margins who occupy unofficial rented accommodation. This wealth transfer also brings a significant economic drag as people become reluctant to move in case they lose their rent controlled rent, whilst simultaneously landlords become increasingly reluctant to rent to anyone except the most copper-bottomed clients as the cost of being wrong escalates.
It is possible to mitigate some of the worst effects of rent control, but the effect of dividing the population into "haves" and "have nots" usually remains. (See, e.g. San Francisco) & the haves tend to vote, so once you bring it in it’s very hard to get rid of.
Personally, I think the answer to high rents is a combination of Georgist land taxes on property owners & a proper building program, but neither of those seem to be likely to be brought in by a UK government at the current time!5 -
All - don't hold your breath waiting for 21 June 'abolition of all legal restrictions' to occur.Black_Rook said:
Are we?TheScreamingEagles said:
No, you're still moaning like a whore for refusing to have your jab then moaning about lockdown not ending sooner.contrarian said:
Does this mean I might not be a 'moaning whore' after all?rottenborough said:
Maybe Julia and Toby are right then?noneoftheabove said:
Why is this going to be different in 2025?Andy_JS said:
We're 80 days from all legal limits on social contacts being lifted, so long as enough people get vaccinated ASAP.
You'd like to think so, but this is nothing more than ministerial rhetoric: the published advice about Step 4 is absolutely riddled with get out clauses.
I shall believe it when I see it.0
This discussion has been closed.