Yes, this is why it's ludicrous to be writing off Starmer due to current mediocre ratings. There has been nothing but Covid since he got the job. No space for the opposition to attack and carve out a strong and distinctive identity. Just no appetite for it amongst the public (as opposed to winky wonky geeks like us).
Keir: "Today, I set out why this government is the worst in modern times. A bunch of total charlatans, led by a prize example of the breed, who might have lucked out on vaccines, as even the blind squirrel will eventually stumble on a nut, but other than that are an utter disaster, and what's worse do not give a flying fig so long as they can keep on shoving the moolah in the direction of their fatcat mates".
Public: "Oh shut up for fuck's sake you irritating little man. We want to hear from Boris about the roadmap."
This has been the political landscape and dynamic of the pandemic. Starmer knows this and has cut his cloth accordingly. He's ridden it out with the objective of 'do no damage' and he has succeeded. He is ready to roll now, as normal life resumes and normal politics resumes. It's game on.
That would all make sense if he hadn’t led the polls for a while, and those leads been feted as an example of his great leadership by his fans. You can’t take the bouquets and swerve the brickbats. Now, as more don’t knows make their minds up, he is disliked, not trusted and thought of as weak
We don't know, is my point. Very exceptional circumstances. If the polls are still looking bad this time next year I will start to worry. But right now I'm quite relaxed. Not exactly optimistic but neither the opposite.
Hartlepool will be interesting. If Labour can pull off a surprise win there I will start to feel positively bullish.
It will hardly be a surprise. 50/50 in a seat they hold. Are you writing the lines for labour media rounds on the night? If so can I suggest the following
- the Tories really should be doing better in London - Labour have really held on through difficult times in Liverpool - Labour haven't exploded in Scotland, our message is beginning to cut through
The Tory lines will inevitably include those around losing seats in the middle of a parliament, unprecedented and unpredictable times, and didn't we do well on vaccines
It will be a genuine surprise and a boost if Labour can win a WWC Leave stronghold like Hartlepool so soon after a triumphant Brexit cum vaccines and with no BXP in play.
People can laugh all they like but this is a new politics for which we need a new punditry. I'm happy to be the one forging it.
I think while there's a certain amount of narrative control on both sides but rationally the following points are simultaneously true:
- It would be disappointing for Labour not win a seat in their historic heartlands, during midterm as the opposition. - It would be a good result for Labour to win the seat due to its demographics and the results of the GE 2019 election regarding BREXIT/CON vote splitting..
Or
It would be a horrendous failure of SKS leadership if he became the first post war Labour leader to lose his first By Election where LAB were the incumbent
It would be a poor result for Labour if with BREXIT now done they did not win easily back at 2017 margin of over 7k
SKS has a hand picked Candidate and the success (or otherwise) of the campaign in Hartlepool is entirely his (no excuses)
FWIW I expect a LAB win with a disappointing margin of 2k
Yes, this is why it's ludicrous to be writing off Starmer due to current mediocre ratings. There has been nothing but Covid since he got the job. No space for the opposition to attack and carve out a strong and distinctive identity. Just no appetite for it amongst the public (as opposed to winky wonky geeks like us).
Keir: "Today, I set out why this government is the worst in modern times. A bunch of total charlatans, led by a prize example of the breed, who might have lucked out on vaccines, as even the blind squirrel will eventually stumble on a nut, but other than that are an utter disaster, and what's worse do not give a flying fig so long as they can keep on shoving the moolah in the direction of their fatcat mates".
Public: "Oh shut up for fuck's sake you irritating little man. We want to hear from Boris about the roadmap."
This has been the political landscape and dynamic of the pandemic. Starmer knows this and has cut his cloth accordingly. He's ridden it out with the objective of 'do no damage' and he has succeeded. He is ready to roll now, as normal life resumes and normal politics resumes. It's game on.
That would all make sense if he hadn’t led the polls for a while, and those leads been feted as an example of his great leadership by his fans. You can’t take the bouquets and swerve the brickbats. Now, as more don’t knows make their minds up, he is disliked, not trusted and thought of as weak
We don't know, is my point. Very exceptional circumstances. If the polls are still looking bad this time next year I will start to worry. But right now I'm quite relaxed. Not exactly optimistic but neither the opposite.
Hartlepool will be interesting. If Labour can pull off a surprise win there I will start to feel positively bullish.
It will hardly be a surprise. 50/50 in a seat they hold. Are you writing the lines for labour media rounds on the night? If so can I suggest the following
- the Tories really should be doing better in London - Labour have really held on through difficult times in Liverpool - Labour haven't exploded in Scotland, our message is beginning to cut through
The Tory lines will inevitably include those around losing seats in the middle of a parliament, unprecedented and unpredictable times, and didn't we do well on vaccines
It will be a genuine surprise and a boost if Labour can win a WWC Leave stronghold like Hartlepool so soon after a triumphant Brexit cum vaccines and with no BXP in play.
People can laugh all they like but this is a new politics for which we need a new punditry. I'm happy to be the one forging it.
I think while there's a certain amount of narrative control on both sides but rationally the following points are simultaneously true:
- It would be disappointing for Labour not win a seat in their historic heartlands, during midterm as the opposition. - It would be a good result for Labour to win the seat due to its demographics and the results of the GE 2019 election regarding BREXIT/CON vote splitting..
Or
It would be a horrendous failure of SKS leadership if he became the first post war Labour leader to lose his first By Election where LAB were the incumbent
It would be a poor result for Labour if with BREXIT now done they did not win easily back at 2017 margin of over 7k
SKS has a hand picked Candidate and the success (or otherwise) of the campaign in Hartlepool is entirely his (no excuses)
FWIW I expect a LAB win with a disappointing margin of 2k
Of course you're an entirely neutral and objective party here, aren't you? Nothing to do with your anti-Keir position?
Yes, this is why it's ludicrous to be writing off Starmer due to current mediocre ratings. There has been nothing but Covid since he got the job. No space for the opposition to attack and carve out a strong and distinctive identity. Just no appetite for it amongst the public (as opposed to winky wonky geeks like us).
Keir: "Today, I set out why this government is the worst in modern times. A bunch of total charlatans, led by a prize example of the breed, who might have lucked out on vaccines, as even the blind squirrel will eventually stumble on a nut, but other than that are an utter disaster, and what's worse do not give a flying fig so long as they can keep on shoving the moolah in the direction of their fatcat mates".
Public: "Oh shut up for fuck's sake you irritating little man. We want to hear from Boris about the roadmap."
This has been the political landscape and dynamic of the pandemic. Starmer knows this and has cut his cloth accordingly. He's ridden it out with the objective of 'do no damage' and he has succeeded. He is ready to roll now, as normal life resumes and normal politics resumes. It's game on.
That would all make sense if he hadn’t led the polls for a while, and those leads been feted as an example of his great leadership by his fans. You can’t take the bouquets and swerve the brickbats. Now, as more don’t knows make their minds up, he is disliked, not trusted and thought of as weak
We don't know, is my point. Very exceptional circumstances. If the polls are still looking bad this time next year I will start to worry. But right now I'm quite relaxed. Not exactly optimistic but neither the opposite.
Hartlepool will be interesting. If Labour can pull off a surprise win there I will start to feel positively bullish.
It will hardly be a surprise. 50/50 in a seat they hold. Are you writing the lines for labour media rounds on the night? If so can I suggest the following
- the Tories really should be doing better in London - Labour have really held on through difficult times in Liverpool - Labour haven't exploded in Scotland, our message is beginning to cut through
The Tory lines will inevitably include those around losing seats in the middle of a parliament, unprecedented and unpredictable times, and didn't we do well on vaccines
It will be a genuine surprise and a boost if Labour can win a WWC Leave stronghold like Hartlepool so soon after a triumphant Brexit cum vaccines and with no BXP in play.
People can laugh all they like but this is a new politics for which we need a new punditry. I'm happy to be the one forging it.
"after telling this newspaper yesterday that vaccine passports were against “the British instinct”, [Starmer's] aides then rushed to explain that this didn’t mean he actually opposes them."
Telegraph.
Starmer in a nutshell it seems.
I doubt Lucy Powell would have endorsed them for large events if Starmer was opposed
Exactly. He has effectively changed his frigging mind in the space of 24 hours on one of the most far reaching policy decisions he may ever have to oppose or support.
He would have been one of the leading Trojans welcoming their lovely new wooden horse into the city.
So, why don't we stop implementing policies that jack house prices up?
No? Okay then, just watch London go further and further to Labour
Are people in London voting Labour because they can't afford to buy a house?
I suspect there is a lot more to it than that.
I think it's a big part of it. People on high incomes who can only afford to rent, due to high house prices, are less likely to vote Conservative than people on average incomes who can afford to buy their own home.
I've seen this in the constituency I work in. Enfield North has seen home ownership decline from c.70% in 2000, to around 50% now. Conservative support has dropped sharply in the wards where this has been most pronounced, like Enfield Lock, Turkey Street, Southbury. The constituency as a whole has gone from a historic marginal to now very safely Labour.
London probably doesn't matter much to the Conservatives now, but it's not a trend they would wish to see replicated across the country.
Yes, an average salary in London will not get you anywhere near enough to buy a property there, an average salary in the North and Midlands however will normally get you a very nice family home in those regions.
Hence London is moving ever more Labour and the North and Midlands have moved Tory
If house prices keep jacking up, in a few decades the rest of the country is going to have the same problem, or the market crashes. Wouldn't want to be holding that bomb.
We will see, hopefully the tighter controls on immigration now and building more affordable housing via local plans should help.
At the moment there is a huge house price divide in England, in the North East the average house price is just £174,116 compared to an average house price of £670,601 in London.
In the West Midlands the average house price is just £245,048 compared to an average house price of £438,998 in the South East
Do you think this is something the Tories should try and resolve though? It makes no difference to them politically - to me it's just not right to allow it to continue.
So, why don't we stop implementing policies that jack house prices up?
No? Okay then, just watch London go further and further to Labour
Are people in London voting Labour because they can't afford to buy a house?
I suspect there is a lot more to it than that.
I think it's a big part of it. People on high incomes who can only afford to rent, due to high house prices, are less likely to vote Conservative than people on average incomes who can afford to buy their own home.
I've seen this in the constituency I work in. Enfield North has seen home ownership decline from c.70% in 2000, to around 50% now. Conservative support has dropped sharply in the wards where this has been most pronounced, like Enfield Lock, Turkey Street, Southbury. The constituency as a whole has gone from a historic marginal to now very safely Labour.
London probably doesn't matter much to the Conservatives now, but it's not a trend they would wish to see replicated across the country.
Yes, an average salary in London will not get you anywhere near enough to buy a property there, an average salary in the North and Midlands however will normally get you a very nice family home in those regions.
Hence London is moving ever more Labour and the North and Midlands have moved Tory
If house prices keep jacking up, in a few decades the rest of the country is going to have the same problem, or the market crashes. Wouldn't want to be holding that bomb.
We will see, hopefully the tighter controls on immigration now and building more affordable housing via local plans should help.
At the moment there is a huge house price divide in England, in the North East the average house price is just £174,116 compared to an average house price of £670,601 in London.
In the West Midlands the average house price is just £245,048 compared to an average house price of £438,998 in the South East
Do you think this is something the Tories should try and resolve though? It makes no difference to them politically - to me it's just not right to allow it to continue.
If most people live in an expensive property and own it then that is no problem for the Tories, if however most people live in an expensive property and rent it that is a problem for the Tories.
If you live in an expensive property and rent it you are less likely to vote Tory than if you live in a cheaper property and own it.
Hence while the Tories have seen a swing to them north of Watford since 2015, in the South they have seen barely any swing at all and in London they have actually seen a swing against them.
"after telling this newspaper yesterday that vaccine passports were against “the British instinct”, [Starmer's] aides then rushed to explain that this didn’t mean he actually opposes them."
Telegraph.
Starmer in a nutshell it seems.
I doubt Lucy Powell would have endorsed them for large events if Starmer was opposed
Exactly. He has effectively changed his frigging mind in the space of 24 hours on one of the most far reaching policy decisions he may ever have to oppose or support.
He would have been one of the leading Trojans welcoming their lovely new wooden horse into the city.
Look, he's just doing his best to become Priam Minister...
LAB have a chance to re-establish some credibility if they oppose domestic vaccine passports.
Will they?
I expect the opposition to come in the form of civil disobedience just like it is for a lot of shops. Most shops have signs up for masks but don't try and enforce it. Most places will similarly say you have to log in but do nothing to enforce it.
So, why don't we stop implementing policies that jack house prices up?
No? Okay then, just watch London go further and further to Labour
Are people in London voting Labour because they can't afford to buy a house?
I suspect there is a lot more to it than that.
I think it's a big part of it. People on high incomes who can only afford to rent, due to high house prices, are less likely to vote Conservative than people on average incomes who can afford to buy their own home.
I've seen this in the constituency I work in. Enfield North has seen home ownership decline from c.70% in 2000, to around 50% now. Conservative support has dropped sharply in the wards where this has been most pronounced, like Enfield Lock, Turkey Street, Southbury. The constituency as a whole has gone from a historic marginal to now very safely Labour.
London probably doesn't matter much to the Conservatives now, but it's not a trend they would wish to see replicated across the country.
Yes, an average salary in London will not get you anywhere near enough to buy a property there, an average salary in the North and Midlands however will normally get you a very nice family home in those regions.
Hence London is moving ever more Labour and the North and Midlands have moved Tory
There are other factors, such as ethnicity, and Brexit. But, some ethnic minorities in London (eg Indians, Jews) have shifted towards the Conservatives (eg Harrow East, Hendon, Finchley & Golders Green), and 40% of Londoners supported Brexit. I think housing is the biggest issue working against the Conservatives in London.
Average age? A lot of younger people migrate to London because it's awesome.
For awesome substitute 'only place with wages high enough that they can begin to hope of buying a house'
If only they had a pan-European medicines agency that could advise on such matters. Utterly bonkers.
Have we seen any scientific evidence to back Gottlieb's claim that the Oxford vector is 'so immunogenic'? If that is true, it is a major blow to Oxford, as it means that the vector itself is a once (or few) and done vehicle for vaccines of any type - i.e. their adenovirus vector cannot be used now for COVID, and then later for Ebola/next emerging pandemic.
Yes, this is why it's ludicrous to be writing off Starmer due to current mediocre ratings. There has been nothing but Covid since he got the job. No space for the opposition to attack and carve out a strong and distinctive identity. Just no appetite for it amongst the public (as opposed to winky wonky geeks like us).
Keir: "Today, I set out why this government is the worst in modern times. A bunch of total charlatans, led by a prize example of the breed, who might have lucked out on vaccines, as even the blind squirrel will eventually stumble on a nut, but other than that are an utter disaster, and what's worse do not give a flying fig so long as they can keep on shoving the moolah in the direction of their fatcat mates".
Public: "Oh shut up for fuck's sake you irritating little man. We want to hear from Boris about the roadmap."
This has been the political landscape and dynamic of the pandemic. Starmer knows this and has cut his cloth accordingly. He's ridden it out with the objective of 'do no damage' and he has succeeded. He is ready to roll now, as normal life resumes and normal politics resumes. It's game on.
That would all make sense if he hadn’t led the polls for a while, and those leads been feted as an example of his great leadership by his fans. You can’t take the bouquets and swerve the brickbats. Now, as more don’t knows make their minds up, he is disliked, not trusted and thought of as weak
We don't know, is my point. Very exceptional circumstances. If the polls are still looking bad this time next year I will start to worry. But right now I'm quite relaxed. Not exactly optimistic but neither the opposite.
Hartlepool will be interesting. If Labour can pull off a surprise win there I will start to feel positively bullish.
It will hardly be a surprise. 50/50 in a seat they hold. Are you writing the lines for labour media rounds on the night? If so can I suggest the following
- the Tories really should be doing better in London - Labour have really held on through difficult times in Liverpool - Labour haven't exploded in Scotland, our message is beginning to cut through
The Tory lines will inevitably include those around losing seats in the middle of a parliament, unprecedented and unpredictable times, and didn't we do well on vaccines
It will be a genuine surprise and a boost if Labour can win a WWC Leave stronghold like Hartlepool so soon after a triumphant Brexit cum vaccines and with no BXP in play.
People can laugh all they like but this is a new politics for which we need a new punditry. I'm happy to be the one forging it.
I think while there's a certain amount of narrative control on both sides but rationally the following points are simultaneously true:
- It would be disappointing for Labour not win a seat in their historic heartlands, during midterm as the opposition. - It would be a good result for Labour to win the seat due to its demographics and the results of the GE 2019 election regarding BREXIT/CON vote splitting..
Or
It would be a horrendous failure of SKS leadership if he became the first post war Labour leader to lose his first By Election where LAB were the incumbent
It would be a poor result for Labour if with BREXIT now done they did not win easily back at 2017 margin of over 7k
SKS has a hand picked Candidate and the success (or otherwise) of the campaign in Hartlepool is entirely his (no excuses)
FWIW I expect a LAB win with a disappointing margin of 2k
So, why don't we stop implementing policies that jack house prices up?
No? Okay then, just watch London go further and further to Labour
Are people in London voting Labour because they can't afford to buy a house?
I suspect there is a lot more to it than that.
I think it's a big part of it. People on high incomes who can only afford to rent, due to high house prices, are less likely to vote Conservative than people on average incomes who can afford to buy their own home.
I've seen this in the constituency I work in. Enfield North has seen home ownership decline from c.70% in 2000, to around 50% now. Conservative support has dropped sharply in the wards where this has been most pronounced, like Enfield Lock, Turkey Street, Southbury. The constituency as a whole has gone from a historic marginal to now very safely Labour.
London probably doesn't matter much to the Conservatives now, but it's not a trend they would wish to see replicated across the country.
Yes, an average salary in London will not get you anywhere near enough to buy a property there, an average salary in the North and Midlands however will normally get you a very nice family home in those regions.
Hence London is moving ever more Labour and the North and Midlands have moved Tory
If house prices keep jacking up, in a few decades the rest of the country is going to have the same problem, or the market crashes. Wouldn't want to be holding that bomb.
We will see, hopefully the tighter controls on immigration now and building more affordable housing via local plans should help.
At the moment there is a huge house price divide in England, in the North East the average house price is just £174,116 compared to an average house price of £670,601 in London.
In the West Midlands the average house price is just £245,048 compared to an average house price of £438,998 in the South East
Do you think this is something the Tories should try and resolve though? It makes no difference to them politically - to me it's just not right to allow it to continue.
LAB have a chance to re-establish some credibility if they oppose domestic vaccine passports.
Will they?
Doesn't bloody look like it.
Yesterday evening it looked like this madcap scheme was dead thanks to 40 backbench Tory stalwarts and Sir K and Liberals.
Now it is back on according to Lucy 'track 'em all, see if I care' Powell.
I think they are being badly misled by polls on this anyway as I pointed out certainly the ipsos mori poll was a somewhat leading question implying if they brought them in they could unlock sooner when the question should have been "Come june 21st when we unlock fully do you believe you should need a vaxport for the following"
The other way I think they are being misled is I don't think people will be "I am voting for x because they supported vaxports" , I don't see it as shifting votes. However conversely the anti's tend to be a lot more likely to shift votes because of it
"after telling this newspaper yesterday that vaccine passports were against “the British instinct”, [Starmer's] aides then rushed to explain that this didn’t mean he actually opposes them."
Telegraph.
Starmer in a nutshell it seems.
I doubt Lucy Powell would have endorsed them for large events if Starmer was opposed
Exactly. He has effectively changed his frigging mind in the space of 24 hours on one of the most far reaching policy decisions he may ever have to oppose or support.
He would have been one of the leading Trojans welcoming their lovely new wooden horse into the city.
Look, he's just doing his best to become Priam Minister...
So, why don't we stop implementing policies that jack house prices up?
No? Okay then, just watch London go further and further to Labour
Are people in London voting Labour because they can't afford to buy a house?
I suspect there is a lot more to it than that.
I think it's a big part of it. People on high incomes who can only afford to rent, due to high house prices, are less likely to vote Conservative than people on average incomes who can afford to buy their own home.
I've seen this in the constituency I work in. Enfield North has seen home ownership decline from c.70% in 2000, to around 50% now. Conservative support has dropped sharply in the wards where this has been most pronounced, like Enfield Lock, Turkey Street, Southbury. The constituency as a whole has gone from a historic marginal to now very safely Labour.
London probably doesn't matter much to the Conservatives now, but it's not a trend they would wish to see replicated across the country.
Yes, an average salary in London will not get you anywhere near enough to buy a property there, an average salary in the North and Midlands however will normally get you a very nice family home in those regions.
Hence London is moving ever more Labour and the North and Midlands have moved Tory
If house prices keep jacking up, in a few decades the rest of the country is going to have the same problem, or the market crashes. Wouldn't want to be holding that bomb.
We will see, hopefully the tighter controls on immigration now and building more affordable housing via local plans should help.
At the moment there is a huge house price divide in England, in the North East the average house price is just £174,116 compared to an average house price of £670,601 in London.
In the West Midlands the average house price is just £245,048 compared to an average house price of £438,998 in the South East
Do you think this is something the Tories should try and resolve though? It makes no difference to them politically - to me it's just not right to allow it to continue.
Yes, this is why it's ludicrous to be writing off Starmer due to current mediocre ratings. There has been nothing but Covid since he got the job. No space for the opposition to attack and carve out a strong and distinctive identity. Just no appetite for it amongst the public (as opposed to winky wonky geeks like us).
Keir: "Today, I set out why this government is the worst in modern times. A bunch of total charlatans, led by a prize example of the breed, who might have lucked out on vaccines, as even the blind squirrel will eventually stumble on a nut, but other than that are an utter disaster, and what's worse do not give a flying fig so long as they can keep on shoving the moolah in the direction of their fatcat mates".
Public: "Oh shut up for fuck's sake you irritating little man. We want to hear from Boris about the roadmap."
This has been the political landscape and dynamic of the pandemic. Starmer knows this and has cut his cloth accordingly. He's ridden it out with the objective of 'do no damage' and he has succeeded. He is ready to roll now, as normal life resumes and normal politics resumes. It's game on.
That would all make sense if he hadn’t led the polls for a while, and those leads been feted as an example of his great leadership by his fans. You can’t take the bouquets and swerve the brickbats. Now, as more don’t knows make their minds up, he is disliked, not trusted and thought of as weak
We don't know, is my point. Very exceptional circumstances. If the polls are still looking bad this time next year I will start to worry. But right now I'm quite relaxed. Not exactly optimistic but neither the opposite.
Hartlepool will be interesting. If Labour can pull off a surprise win there I will start to feel positively bullish.
It will hardly be a surprise. 50/50 in a seat they hold. Are you writing the lines for labour media rounds on the night? If so can I suggest the following
- the Tories really should be doing better in London - Labour have really held on through difficult times in Liverpool - Labour haven't exploded in Scotland, our message is beginning to cut through
The Tory lines will inevitably include those around losing seats in the middle of a parliament, unprecedented and unpredictable times, and didn't we do well on vaccines
It will be a genuine surprise and a boost if Labour can win a WWC Leave stronghold like Hartlepool so soon after a triumphant Brexit cum vaccines and with no BXP in play.
People can laugh all they like but this is a new politics for which we need a new punditry. I'm happy to be the one forging it.
I think while there's a certain amount of narrative control on both sides but rationally the following points are simultaneously true:
- It would be disappointing for Labour not win a seat in their historic heartlands, during midterm as the opposition. - It would be a good result for Labour to win the seat due to its demographics and the results of the GE 2019 election regarding BREXIT/CON vote splitting..
Or
It would be a horrendous failure of SKS leadership if he became the first post war Labour leader to lose his first By Election where LAB were the incumbent
It would be a poor result for Labour if with BREXIT now done they did not win easily back at 2017 margin of over 7k
SKS has a hand picked Candidate and the success (or otherwise) of the campaign in Hartlepool is entirely his (no excuses)
FWIW I expect a LAB win with a disappointing margin of 2k
Sorry, my mistake - there were earlier by-elections Labour held on in. Had the bloody chart upside down...
The first rule of the government’s culture war is that it has to be fought by the ones who look like their earliest relationship with the flag was being given a wedgie with it at school. Jenrick, Oliver Dowden, Gavin Williamson, Milhouse Van Houten – this is the pool from which your generals are drawn.
The first rule of the government’s culture war is that it has to be fought by the ones who look like their earliest relationship with the flag was being given a wedgie with it at school. Jenrick, Oliver Dowden, Gavin Williamson, Milhouse Van Houten – this is the pool from which your generals are drawn.
That stings because it's true.
Surely not? I mean, does anyone believe Williamson and Jenrick went to school?
So, why don't we stop implementing policies that jack house prices up?
No? Okay then, just watch London go further and further to Labour
Are people in London voting Labour because they can't afford to buy a house?
I suspect there is a lot more to it than that.
I think it's a big part of it. People on high incomes who can only afford to rent, due to high house prices, are less likely to vote Conservative than people on average incomes who can afford to buy their own home.
I've seen this in the constituency I work in. Enfield North has seen home ownership decline from c.70% in 2000, to around 50% now. Conservative support has dropped sharply in the wards where this has been most pronounced, like Enfield Lock, Turkey Street, Southbury. The constituency as a whole has gone from a historic marginal to now very safely Labour.
London probably doesn't matter much to the Conservatives now, but it's not a trend they would wish to see replicated across the country.
Yes, an average salary in London will not get you anywhere near enough to buy a property there, an average salary in the North and Midlands however will normally get you a very nice family home in those regions.
Hence London is moving ever more Labour and the North and Midlands have moved Tory
If house prices keep jacking up, in a few decades the rest of the country is going to have the same problem, or the market crashes. Wouldn't want to be holding that bomb.
We will see, hopefully the tighter controls on immigration now and building more affordable housing via local plans should help.
At the moment there is a huge house price divide in England, in the North East the average house price is just £174,116 compared to an average house price of £670,601 in London.
In the West Midlands the average house price is just £245,048 compared to an average house price of £438,998 in the South East
Do you think this is something the Tories should try and resolve though? It makes no difference to them politically - to me it's just not right to allow it to continue.
BJ still governing in campaign mode. SKS would look a bit of a berk doing this (as does BJ but that’s his natural habitat) but surely there’s some less berkish equivalent?
So, why don't we stop implementing policies that jack house prices up?
No? Okay then, just watch London go further and further to Labour
Are people in London voting Labour because they can't afford to buy a house?
I suspect there is a lot more to it than that.
I think it's a big part of it. People on high incomes who can only afford to rent, due to high house prices, are less likely to vote Conservative than people on average incomes who can afford to buy their own home.
I've seen this in the constituency I work in. Enfield North has seen home ownership decline from c.70% in 2000, to around 50% now. Conservative support has dropped sharply in the wards where this has been most pronounced, like Enfield Lock, Turkey Street, Southbury. The constituency as a whole has gone from a historic marginal to now very safely Labour.
London probably doesn't matter much to the Conservatives now, but it's not a trend they would wish to see replicated across the country.
Yes, an average salary in London will not get you anywhere near enough to buy a property there, an average salary in the North and Midlands however will normally get you a very nice family home in those regions.
Hence London is moving ever more Labour and the North and Midlands have moved Tory
If house prices keep jacking up, in a few decades the rest of the country is going to have the same problem, or the market crashes. Wouldn't want to be holding that bomb.
We will see, hopefully the tighter controls on immigration now and building more affordable housing via local plans should help.
At the moment there is a huge house price divide in England, in the North East the average house price is just £174,116 compared to an average house price of £670,601 in London.
In the West Midlands the average house price is just £245,048 compared to an average house price of £438,998 in the South East
Do you think this is something the Tories should try and resolve though? It makes no difference to them politically - to me it's just not right to allow it to continue.
But I thought that there was a shortage of housing in the capital. Why does he want to make it worse?
Oh, oh, I've got it. He wants to force BTL landlords out of the market because their rent will no longer cover the borrowings, so more people can buy houses, so more of them will vote Tory so...sorry, as you were.
As for Boris Johnson's comment about two people vaccinated people not meeting up indoors, I believe he was talking about people who have had just one jab within three weeks.
Once we've all had both jabs then it'll be all hunky dory.
Some people think they become immortal within seconds of receiving their first jab.
Because that worked so well when they had them before
For the purposes of kicking private landlords out of the capital it would work pretty well.
To be replaced with what? That’s the issue. Either the state would have to buy these properties, or they would have to be bought by other private buyers. And how many of their tenants would have the money to buy them? Certainly Khan doesn’t.
I know this is an issue you feel strongly about, and unlike me, you live in London, so what solutions do you have? And would there be easier routes than rent controls, which can have weird unintended consequences like buildings standing empty for years?
Starmer is Meh. That is his primary problem - I can't be roused in either support or damnation as I can other politicians. What makes it worse for him is that I honestly don't think he actually cares about half the stuff he tries to take a position on. He comes across simultaneously as wooden and plastic, a political piece of MFI chipboard furniture with a shiny veneer stuck over to make it look nice.
I'm no great fan, but when the alternative is Johnson, and/or any one of his henchmen (and Priti) I'd give Starmer a whirl.
Rayner, Nandy and Phillips wouldn't get a free ride by the Conservative friends of Johnson either. The "chav" baggage has previously been pointed out on here.
BJ still governing in campaign mode. SKS would look a bit of a berk doing this (as does BJ but that’s his natural habitat) but surely there’s some less berkish equivalent?
So, Starmer's fate is in the hands of black swans and a change in PM.
Give up now?
If Boris becomes unpopular as Trump was by 2020 or Sarkozy was by 2012 then Starmer could narrowly win despite being a dull leader facing a more charismatic incumbent as Biden and Hollande did.
However at the moment Boris remains popular enough he would be re elected but there is some time to go until 2024
As usual despite the abuse you receive from a bunch of utter twats, you remain polite and insightful.
You are one of the few people on the right here remaining remotely objective beyond "Starmer is shit, he should just quit now" (just imagine the response I would get if I posted that about BoJo) and you always have something interesting to say about the Tories.
Although in defence of Sadiq Khan perhaps he is being cynical, he's seen how popular Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak, and the Tories have become from enacting large pacts of Michael Foot's '83 manifesto and other large parts of socialism since March 2020 and he's thinking perhaps I should follow suit.
Well, by that logic we will never be able to meet indoors.
It’s not his real reason of course - he’s just afraid that if vaccinated people can meet indoors that will set up howls from the unvaccinated - but really, surely even Cummings would have come up with a more convincing lie than that.
What an idiot he is. I’m embarrassed to think he’s our PM.
Edit - and I also think he’s being very foolish by using the word ‘irreversible.’ Czechia said something similar and it didn’t end well for them. ‘Being cautious so we give ourselves the maximum chance of staying unlocked’ would have been safer.
That won't go down well with voters should it come to pass. We all love Boris because he invented all the vaccines to lead the world out of lockdown. People I know who are currently blowing smoke up Johnson's *** are doing so on the understanding that they get to go on hioliday, go to the pub, go to the gym and meet friends in enclosed spaces one their vaccines kick in.
The USA once again shows why it is an economic monster. The Trump boom was only paused by covid. Now if they could only get their government expenditure under control.
Because that worked so well when they had them before
For the purposes of kicking private landlords out of the capital it would work pretty well.
To be replaced with what? That’s the issue. Either the state would have to buy these properties, or they would have to be bought by other private buyers. And how many of their tenants would have the money to do so?
I know this is an issue you feel strongly about, and unlike me, you live in London, so what solutions do you have? And would there be easier routes than rent controls, which can have weird unintended consequences like buildings standing empty for years?
I'd simply make it unprofitable to be a landlord of existing property and apply a 100% CGT with no capital loss allowance for non-primary residential property. If you can't make money out of the sector the rats will leave the sinking ship.
As an incentive to build property I'd offer a 25 year non-transferable build-to-rent allowance that avoids all of the additional taxes, even allowing for the standard 28% CGT rate within that 25 year period (essentially, "sell it you idiot"). I would also backdate this measure so that investors who have built property over the last 25 years aren't ensnared by it plus a couple years for them to sell at 28% CGT.
If the landlords don't like it they can vote for Labour. Oh right.
Because getting enough of the population covered will slam prevalence into the ground, as is happening in Israel now.
If its happening in Israel now, it will happen in spring/summer in the UK not some indefinite time in the future, maybe a couple of years, maybe longer, oh lets just make state control permanent.
BJ still governing in campaign mode. SKS would look a bit of a berk doing this (as does BJ but that’s his natural habitat) but surely there’s some less berkish equivalent?
Actually he was interviewed in B & Q, and those who mock Boris are missing the point that he is popular with ordinary voters, who most likely shop at B & Q , and this is precisely why he clicks with the electorate
I shop at B&Q.
Many millions do
All building professionals profess to hate B&Q. And then use them to get bit and pieces when a project gets stalled. Holding a whole site for the lack of a few concrete saw blades costs...
I think I wrote about how, when the Nightingale's were being built, they used DIY stores to buy the stuff they needed within the hour.
Of course serious DIYers use Screwfix!
Owned by B&Q
Screwfix is just the other cheek of the same arse. They all are. Same range of products plus some shite own brand stuff.
B&Q (and the others) realised that the pro market was worthwhile - hence they carry a certain range of the real brands.
Since it's Saturday...
That's not quite right if you know the detail - different product range and prices.
eg B&Q every several years have a branded chainsaw with an Oregon Chain setup, which is self-sharpening, at a price massively cheaper than typical as it is a pro feature.
Quite often the saw effectively comes free.
They are also the place to go if you want to make shelves, as they will cut sheet products into lots of pieces for free. But don't ask them to make coasters from a sheet of 8x4 ply.
The USA once again shows why it is an economic monster. The Trump boom was only paused by covid. Now if they could only get their government expenditure under control.
During my lifetime the GOP are only in favour of reducing government expenditure and the deficit when there's a Dem in the White House.
So, why don't we stop implementing policies that jack house prices up?
No? Okay then, just watch London go further and further to Labour
Are people in London voting Labour because they can't afford to buy a house?
I suspect there is a lot more to it than that.
I think it's a big part of it. People on high incomes who can only afford to rent, due to high house prices, are less likely to vote Conservative than people on average incomes who can afford to buy their own home.
I've seen this in the constituency I work in. Enfield North has seen home ownership decline from c.70% in 2000, to around 50% now. Conservative support has dropped sharply in the wards where this has been most pronounced, like Enfield Lock, Turkey Street, Southbury. The constituency as a whole has gone from a historic marginal to now very safely Labour.
London probably doesn't matter much to the Conservatives now, but it's not a trend they would wish to see replicated across the country.
Yes, an average salary in London will not get you anywhere near enough to buy a property there, an average salary in the North and Midlands however will normally get you a very nice family home in those regions.
Hence London is moving ever more Labour and the North and Midlands have moved Tory
If house prices keep jacking up, in a few decades the rest of the country is going to have the same problem, or the market crashes. Wouldn't want to be holding that bomb.
We will see, hopefully the tighter controls on immigration now and building more affordable housing via local plans should help.
At the moment there is a huge house price divide in England, in the North East the average house price is just £174,116 compared to an average house price of £670,601 in London.
In the West Midlands the average house price is just £245,048 compared to an average house price of £438,998 in the South East
Do you think this is something the Tories should try and resolve though? It makes no difference to them politically - to me it's just not right to allow it to continue.
Because that worked so well when they had them before
For the purposes of kicking private landlords out of the capital it would work pretty well.
To be replaced with what? That’s the issue. Either the state would have to buy these properties, or they would have to be bought by other private buyers. And how many of their tenants would have the money to buy them? Certainly Khan doesn’t.
I know this is an issue you feel strongly about, and unlike me, you live in London, so what solutions do you have? And would there be easier routes than rent controls, which can have weird unintended consequences like buildings standing empty for years?
In principle it seems to me that the biggest issue in London is "investor flats" which have been bought by overseas investors and generally stand empty. If they were being rented out then that would massively reduce the rental costs in general across London. Long-term, if rents came down then it would also ensure that house prices fell / were more reasonable as well.
Personally I would be massively increasing the taxes and costs for properties which stand empty - not just 'double council tax' but a properly punative 5% of value tax every year if genuinely unused or similar - I just have no idea how to check/manage/define this and deal with genuine exceptions (empty for refurbishment, probate, holiday homes which are used by friends but not formally rented out etc)
The USA once again shows why it is an economic monster. The Trump boom was only paused by covid. Now if they could only get their government expenditure under control.
This is surely partly the result of several big repub dominated states opening fully and unilaterally, telling Biden, Fauci, Cuomo and Co to go f8ck themselves in the process.
Its like the stopped clock is right twice a day. They have been wrong up to the last month or so, when the combination of the vaccination programme improving the situation combined simultaneously with the government growing increasingly, either or both, frit and authoritarian has led to Julia and Toby being right for the first time in the pandemic.
They deserve no particular praise for being on the right side of this debate now, but yes they are currently right. I doubt it shall last.
Well, by that logic we will never be able to meet indoors.
It’s not his real reason of course - he’s just afraid that if vaccinated people can meet indoors that will set up howls from the unvaccinated - but really, surely even Cummings would have come up with a more convincing lie than that.
What an idiot he is. I’m embarrassed to think he’s our PM.
Edit - and I also think he’s being very foolish by using the word ‘irreversible.’ Czechia said something similar and it didn’t end well for them. ‘Being cautious so we give ourselves the maximum chance of staying unlocked’ would have been safer.
That won't go down well with voters should it come to pass. We all love Boris because he invented all the vaccines to lead the world out of lockdown. People I know who are currently blowing smoke up Johnson's *** are doing so on the understanding that they get to go on hioliday, go to the pub, go to the gym and meet friends in enclosed spaces one their vaccines kick in.
The only way that a biosecurity state survives the outright suppression of the virus is if the fear factor created by it is replaced by something else. £20,000 fines for setting foot inside your mate's house, or something. Basically a form of fascism implemented through permanent Draconian laws.
I hope this lot aren't that power crazed, but anyone who trusts them entirely on any given subject is a fool.
Although in defence of Sadiq Khan perhaps he is being cynical, he's seen how popular Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak, and the Tories have become from enacting large pacts of Michael Foot's '83 manifesto and other large parts of socialism since March 2020 and he's thinking perhaps I should follow suit.
Keep this up much longer and Richard Tice will be putting you down as a 'maybe'
BJ still governing in campaign mode. SKS would look a bit of a berk doing this (as does BJ but that’s his natural habitat) but surely there’s some less berkish equivalent?
So, why don't we stop implementing policies that jack house prices up?
No? Okay then, just watch London go further and further to Labour
Are people in London voting Labour because they can't afford to buy a house?
I suspect there is a lot more to it than that.
I think it's a big part of it. People on high incomes who can only afford to rent, due to high house prices, are less likely to vote Conservative than people on average incomes who can afford to buy their own home.
I've seen this in the constituency I work in. Enfield North has seen home ownership decline from c.70% in 2000, to around 50% now. Conservative support has dropped sharply in the wards where this has been most pronounced, like Enfield Lock, Turkey Street, Southbury. The constituency as a whole has gone from a historic marginal to now very safely Labour.
London probably doesn't matter much to the Conservatives now, but it's not a trend they would wish to see replicated across the country.
Yes, an average salary in London will not get you anywhere near enough to buy a property there, an average salary in the North and Midlands however will normally get you a very nice family home in those regions.
Hence London is moving ever more Labour and the North and Midlands have moved Tory
If house prices keep jacking up, in a few decades the rest of the country is going to have the same problem, or the market crashes. Wouldn't want to be holding that bomb.
We will see, hopefully the tighter controls on immigration now and building more affordable housing via local plans should help.
At the moment there is a huge house price divide in England, in the North East the average house price is just £174,116 compared to an average house price of £670,601 in London.
In the West Midlands the average house price is just £245,048 compared to an average house price of £438,998 in the South East
Do you think this is something the Tories should try and resolve though? It makes no difference to them politically - to me it's just not right to allow it to continue.
I don't see how he has the power to legislate on that.
I was wondering that too. Plus, if he does, there would be some really weird edge cases as you go into places like Watford that feel like London but aren’t.
Presumably Khan will be introducing some type of code of conduct for landlords where you are only an approved landlord if you agree not to put up rent etc.
But what he certainly can't do is the old 1970s Rent Act style security of tenure. So if landlords don't like it they can just boot out the tenant and sell the property.
So result may well be increase in owner occupation - albeit that prices may fall.
Does this mean I might not be a 'moaning whore' after all?
No, you're still moaning like a whore for refusing to have your jab then moaning about lockdown not ending sooner.
We're 80 days from all legal limits on social contacts being lifted, so long as enough people get vaccinated ASAP.
Are we?
You'd like to think so, but this is nothing more than ministerial rhetoric: the published advice about Step 4 is absolutely riddled with get out clauses.
So, why don't we stop implementing policies that jack house prices up?
No? Okay then, just watch London go further and further to Labour
Are people in London voting Labour because they can't afford to buy a house?
I suspect there is a lot more to it than that.
I think it's a big part of it. People on high incomes who can only afford to rent, due to high house prices, are less likely to vote Conservative than people on average incomes who can afford to buy their own home.
I've seen this in the constituency I work in. Enfield North has seen home ownership decline from c.70% in 2000, to around 50% now. Conservative support has dropped sharply in the wards where this has been most pronounced, like Enfield Lock, Turkey Street, Southbury. The constituency as a whole has gone from a historic marginal to now very safely Labour.
London probably doesn't matter much to the Conservatives now, but it's not a trend they would wish to see replicated across the country.
Yes, an average salary in London will not get you anywhere near enough to buy a property there, an average salary in the North and Midlands however will normally get you a very nice family home in those regions.
Hence London is moving ever more Labour and the North and Midlands have moved Tory
If house prices keep jacking up, in a few decades the rest of the country is going to have the same problem, or the market crashes. Wouldn't want to be holding that bomb.
We will see, hopefully the tighter controls on immigration now and building more affordable housing via local plans should help.
At the moment there is a huge house price divide in England, in the North East the average house price is just £174,116 compared to an average house price of £670,601 in London.
In the West Midlands the average house price is just £245,048 compared to an average house price of £438,998 in the South East
Do you think this is something the Tories should try and resolve though? It makes no difference to them politically - to me it's just not right to allow it to continue.
So, why don't we stop implementing policies that jack house prices up?
No? Okay then, just watch London go further and further to Labour
Are people in London voting Labour because they can't afford to buy a house?
I suspect there is a lot more to it than that.
I think it's a big part of it. People on high incomes who can only afford to rent, due to high house prices, are less likely to vote Conservative than people on average incomes who can afford to buy their own home.
I've seen this in the constituency I work in. Enfield North has seen home ownership decline from c.70% in 2000, to around 50% now. Conservative support has dropped sharply in the wards where this has been most pronounced, like Enfield Lock, Turkey Street, Southbury. The constituency as a whole has gone from a historic marginal to now very safely Labour.
London probably doesn't matter much to the Conservatives now, but it's not a trend they would wish to see replicated across the country.
Yes, an average salary in London will not get you anywhere near enough to buy a property there, an average salary in the North and Midlands however will normally get you a very nice family home in those regions.
Hence London is moving ever more Labour and the North and Midlands have moved Tory
If house prices keep jacking up, in a few decades the rest of the country is going to have the same problem, or the market crashes. Wouldn't want to be holding that bomb.
We will see, hopefully the tighter controls on immigration now and building more affordable housing via local plans should help.
At the moment there is a huge house price divide in England, in the North East the average house price is just £174,116 compared to an average house price of £670,601 in London.
In the West Midlands the average house price is just £245,048 compared to an average house price of £438,998 in the South East
Do you think this is something the Tories should try and resolve though? It makes no difference to them politically - to me it's just not right to allow it to continue.
All those Londoners have nothing to lose but 20% of their speculative profits. Unless they overreached
There might be an argument for only applying it to pre-2010 profits.
You don’t pay CGT on a main dwelling.
Point of Order conceded.
Abolish exemption of CGT on Main Dwellings !!
Indeed. Because, remarkably, for people with several dwellings, the one being sold tends to be the one they are supposedly living in at the time.
I remember that. It was a flipping scandal.
There is a simple fix to this, if you own more than one house any house you sell is subject to CGT until you get back down to one house
Unfortunately there is also a simple dodge to that - transfer any properties you own to a limited company.
But then you get hit by the Stamp Duty Charge for transferring residential properties into a limited company that Osborne (I believe) initiated. (Might still be worth doing of course, but not exactly 'free')
Although in defence of Sadiq Khan perhaps he is being cynical, he's seen how popular Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak, and the Tories have become from enacting large pacts of Michael Foot's '83 manifesto and other large parts of socialism since March 2020 and he's thinking perhaps I should follow suit.
The Johnson Project is more like Mitterand than Foot. Full commitment to the 'active state' and picking winners through defecit funded interventions.
So, why don't we stop implementing policies that jack house prices up?
No? Okay then, just watch London go further and further to Labour
Are people in London voting Labour because they can't afford to buy a house?
I suspect there is a lot more to it than that.
I think it's a big part of it. People on high incomes who can only afford to rent, due to high house prices, are less likely to vote Conservative than people on average incomes who can afford to buy their own home.
I've seen this in the constituency I work in. Enfield North has seen home ownership decline from c.70% in 2000, to around 50% now. Conservative support has dropped sharply in the wards where this has been most pronounced, like Enfield Lock, Turkey Street, Southbury. The constituency as a whole has gone from a historic marginal to now very safely Labour.
London probably doesn't matter much to the Conservatives now, but it's not a trend they would wish to see replicated across the country.
Yes, an average salary in London will not get you anywhere near enough to buy a property there, an average salary in the North and Midlands however will normally get you a very nice family home in those regions.
Hence London is moving ever more Labour and the North and Midlands have moved Tory
If house prices keep jacking up, in a few decades the rest of the country is going to have the same problem, or the market crashes. Wouldn't want to be holding that bomb.
We will see, hopefully the tighter controls on immigration now and building more affordable housing via local plans should help.
At the moment there is a huge house price divide in England, in the North East the average house price is just £174,116 compared to an average house price of £670,601 in London.
In the West Midlands the average house price is just £245,048 compared to an average house price of £438,998 in the South East
Do you think this is something the Tories should try and resolve though? It makes no difference to them politically - to me it's just not right to allow it to continue.
All those Londoners have nothing to lose but 20% of their speculative profits. Unless they overreached
There might be an argument for only applying it to pre-2010 profits.
You don’t pay CGT on a main dwelling.
Point of Order conceded.
Abolish exemption of CGT on Main Dwellings !!
Indeed. Because, remarkably, for people with several dwellings, the one being sold tends to be the one they are supposedly living in at the time.
I remember that. It was a flipping scandal.
There is a simple fix to this, if you own more than one house any house you sell is subject to CGT until you get back down to one house
Unfortunately there is also a simple dodge to that - transfer any properties you own to a limited company.
But then you get hit by the Stamp Duty Charge for transferring residential properties into a limited company that Osborne (I believe) initiated. (Might still be worth doing of course, but not exactly 'free')
You don't get hit with stamp duty, although you are expected to pay CGT on the transfer price.
Equally, it isn't hard to get round that if you want it to because the regulations are so badly written.
Edit - one casualty of Covid is of course likely to be stamp duty, very probably in favour of CGT on main dwellings instead.
From gov.uk, on Easter reporting: Wales: no data on 2 April and 4 April (note: cases and deaths data released on 5 April and 6 April will both cover 48 hour periods)
From I understand this is one of those policies that is doomed to failure, isnt it? Everywhere it is introduced it causes unexpected consequences.
I'm all for evidence based policy, even if it is counter to my gut instinct. Please someone show me where rent controls have been net beneficial.
It’s the policy that unites economists of every political colour in condemning it. There isn’t a housing situation out there that you can’t make worse by introducing rent controls.
The only rent control that works is where the state owns the housing, so the state sets the rent. E.g. (before the PB right has a collective aneurysm) that oh so lefty socialist state of Singapore, where 80% of residents live in state-owned accommodation.
Attempting to fix private housing issues by introducing rent controls is essentially a doomed enterprise that establishes a new, privileged elite (those who happen to occupy housing at the time the rent control is introduced) at the expense of two groups: property owners (to which most on the left would probably say: bring it on ) but also, future renters & those on the margins who occupy unofficial rented accommodation. This wealth transfer also brings a significant economic drag as people become reluctant to move in case they lose their rent controlled rent, whilst simultaneously landlords become increasingly reluctant to rent to anyone except the most copper-bottomed clients as the cost of being wrong escalates.
It is possible to mitigate some of the worst effects of rent control, but the effect of dividing the population into "haves" and "have nots" usually remains. (See, e.g. San Francisco) & the haves tend to vote, so once you bring it in it’s very hard to get rid of.
Personally, I think the answer to high rents is a combination of Georgist land taxes on property owners & a proper building program, but neither of those seem to be likely to be brought in by a UK government at the current time!
Does this mean I might not be a 'moaning whore' after all?
No, you're still moaning like a whore for refusing to have your jab then moaning about lockdown not ending sooner.
We're 80 days from all legal limits on social contacts being lifted, so long as enough people get vaccinated ASAP.
Are we?
You'd like to think so, but this is nothing more than ministerial rhetoric: the published advice about Step 4 is absolutely riddled with get out clauses.
I shall believe it when I see it.
All - don't hold your breath waiting for 21 June 'abolition of all legal restrictions' to occur.
Comments
It would be a horrendous failure of SKS leadership if he became the first post war Labour leader to lose his first By Election where LAB were the incumbent
It would be a poor result for Labour if with BREXIT now done they did not win easily back at 2017 margin of over 7k
SKS has a hand picked Candidate and the success (or otherwise) of the campaign in Hartlepool is entirely his (no excuses)
FWIW I expect a LAB win with a disappointing margin of 2k
Ah yes - The Profundity of the Punditry.
He would have been one of the leading Trojans welcoming their lovely new wooden horse into the city.
Will they?
Abolish CGT on main dwellings.
All those Londoners have nothing to lose but 20% of their speculative profits. Unless they overreached
There might be an argument for only applying it to pre-2010 profits.
If you live in an expensive property and rent it you are less likely to vote Tory than if you live in a cheaper property and own it.
Hence while the Tories have seen a swing to them north of Watford since 2015, in the South they have seen barely any swing at all and in London they have actually seen a swing against them.
Despite your perverse obsession with the insane notion that taxing buyers more makes buying easier.
Yesterday evening it looked like this madcap scheme was dead thanks to 40 backbench Tory stalwarts and Sir K and Liberals.
Now it is back on according to Lucy 'track 'em all, see if I care' Powell.
https://twitter.com/JoshuaGarfield/status/1377762082351894536
The other way I think they are being misled is I don't think people will be "I am voting for x because they supported vaxports" , I don't see it as shifting votes. However conversely the anti's tend to be a lot more likely to shift votes because of it
Abolish exemption of CGT on Main Dwellings !!
That stings because it's true.
They don't want to give people their liberty back, they want to replace the tories with all the controls that have been imposed in place.
If you really want your liberty back, you are going to have to look outside the main parties.
Which for very, very many people on here, is going to be a big stretch. A massive stretch.
Here's Lucy Powell's comments.
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1377934132710363136
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1377936557605261316
As for Boris Johnson's comment about two people vaccinated people not meeting up indoors, I believe he was talking about people who have had just one jab within three weeks.
Once we've all had both jabs then it'll be all hunky dory.
Some people think they become immortal within seconds of receiving their first jab.
I know this is an issue you feel strongly about, and unlike me, you live in London, so what solutions do you have? And would there be easier routes than rent controls, which can have weird unintended consequences like buildings standing empty for years?
And there would be far less to rent for people who need it.
A regressive policy.
Rayner, Nandy and Phillips wouldn't get a free ride by the Conservative friends of Johnson either. The "chav" baggage has previously been pointed out on here.
We're 80 days from all legal limits on social contacts being lifted, so long as enough people get vaccinated ASAP.
50-54 83.53%
55-59 91.14%
60-64 96.11%
65-69 93.48%
70-74 96.78%
75-79 101.89% !
80+ 95.17%
Under 50s, 26.73%
I'm all for evidence based policy, even if it is counter to my gut instinct. Please someone show me where rent controls have been net beneficial.
As an incentive to build property I'd offer a 25 year non-transferable build-to-rent allowance that avoids all of the additional taxes, even allowing for the standard 28% CGT rate within that 25 year period (essentially, "sell it you idiot"). I would also backdate this measure so that investors who have built property over the last 25 years aren't ensnared by it plus a couple years for them to sell at 28% CGT.
If the landlords don't like it they can vote for Labour. Oh right.
I’ll want to defer that now if I’m not sure what Sadiq is planning to do to my ability to set a market rent.
That's not quite right if you know the detail - different product range and prices.
eg B&Q every several years have a branded chainsaw with an Oregon Chain setup, which is self-sharpening, at a price massively cheaper than typical as it is a pro feature.
Quite often the saw effectively comes free.
They are also the place to go if you want to make shelves, as they will cut sheet products into lots of pieces for free. But don't ask them to make coasters from a sheet of 8x4 ply.
Personally I would be massively increasing the taxes and costs for properties which stand empty - not just 'double council tax' but a properly punative 5% of value tax every year if genuinely unused or similar - I just have no idea how to check/manage/define this and deal with genuine exceptions (empty for refurbishment, probate, holiday homes which are used by friends but not formally rented out etc)
They deserve no particular praise for being on the right side of this debate now, but yes they are currently right. I doubt it shall last.
I hope this lot aren't that power crazed, but anyone who trusts them entirely on any given subject is a fool.
Is rented to a banker on transfer from New York and paid for by her employer.
But what he certainly can't do is the old 1970s Rent Act style security of tenure. So if landlords don't like it they can just boot out the tenant and sell the property.
So result may well be increase in owner occupation - albeit that prices may fall.
You'd like to think so, but this is nothing more than ministerial rhetoric: the published advice about Step 4 is absolutely riddled with get out clauses.
I shall believe it when I see it.
Equally, it isn't hard to get round that if you want it to because the regulations are so badly written.
Edit - one casualty of Covid is of course likely to be stamp duty, very probably in favour of CGT on main dwellings instead.
The only rent control that works is where the state owns the housing, so the state sets the rent. E.g. (before the PB right has a collective aneurysm) that oh so lefty socialist state of Singapore, where 80% of residents live in state-owned accommodation.
Attempting to fix private housing issues by introducing rent controls is essentially a doomed enterprise that establishes a new, privileged elite (those who happen to occupy housing at the time the rent control is introduced) at the expense of two groups: property owners (to which most on the left would probably say: bring it on
It is possible to mitigate some of the worst effects of rent control, but the effect of dividing the population into "haves" and "have nots" usually remains. (See, e.g. San Francisco) & the haves tend to vote, so once you bring it in it’s very hard to get rid of.
Personally, I think the answer to high rents is a combination of Georgist land taxes on property owners & a proper building program, but neither of those seem to be likely to be brought in by a UK government at the current time!