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A year on for Starmer and he has yet been able to shake the hands of a single voter – politicalbetti
I always felt sorry for IDS whose election as Tory leader was due to take place the the day after 9/11 – an event that so dominated the world that he never really had a chance to have a honeymoon period.
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There is never a sufficient reason to feel sorry for IDS.
A hi-viz a day keeps Starmer at bay!
When Starmer was elected it was far from clear Labour could regroup and hold position. That was his first task. 6th May we’ll find out if he has succeeded.
https://twitter.com/shannonrwatts/status/1377747334189051907?s=21
Starmer has, until this week, been largely supportive of the Government through the pandemic, yet the RedWall opinion poll last week suggested Labour are opposing Johnson's pandemic response for the sake of wilful opposition.
So in summary Starmer is in trouble with the PB commentators (including myself) for not opposing the Government, yet to the voters that matter, he is opposing too much.
Taiwan: Dozens killed as train crashes and derails in tunnel
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-56612248
Bearing in mind 2019 and I remember the discussion here, Starmer’s performance is good
One question we could ask, however, is would any other candidate in that race have done better? And the answer to that is obviously ‘no.’ Nandy might be doing roughly as well, but if Long Bailey had been leader...
https://twitter.com/marceldirsus/status/1377895424183402497?s=21
I have always been convinced that the media narrative swings support for the two main competing parties. Black Wednesday highlighted this very well (as did Cummings). So Johnson is only as good, and Starmer is only as bad, until the next big calamity to befall the Government... whenever that may be.
Blair is often cited here as Ying to Starmer's Yang, but Blair rode the long post Black Wednesday wave of media perceived Government incompetence. Governments lose elections, oppositions don't win them. Starmer needs some good old Johnson chaos, surely he won't have to wait long.
It's tough being in opposition when big things are happening and the decisions are all in the government. To be heard or noticed you need to be clear, coherent and unequivocal. Blair did that brilliantly in the aftermath of Black Wednesday and Vince Cable was good in the period after the GFC. SKS has been poor and people have noticed.
But if Con go for domestic vaccine passports everyone will be voting Lab and CHB will be celebrating an election victory!
One leader was right. The other was wrong. We rarely have such a clear division.
To put it another way, if even half those trapped at this moment don’t make it that would be a more lethal railway accident than any in Britain since Quintinshill in May 1915.
And if the leader of the opposition has nothing to say on these huge, sesmic issues, what is he there for?
That is not to say the time hasn't arrived for Starmer to pull his finger out
Labour policy is not rejoin, it's to stay out of the EU and to make the current deal work. That's a policy.
Look at these YouGovs - since he took over he hasn’t got any more positives, and all the don’t knows have gone negative, it is almost strangely ridiculously clear
Keir: "Today, I set out why this government is the worst in modern times. A bunch of total charlatans, led by a prize example of the breed, who might have lucked out on vaccines, as even the blind squirrel will eventually stumble on a nut, but other than that are an utter disaster, and what's worse do not give a flying fig so long as they can keep on shoving the moolah in the direction of their fatcat mates".
Public: "Oh shut up for fuck's sake you irritating little man. We want to hear from Boris about the roadmap."
This has been the political landscape and dynamic of the pandemic. Starmer knows this and has cut his cloth accordingly. He's ridden it out with the objective of 'do no damage' and he has succeeded. He is ready to roll now, as normal life resumes and normal politics resumes. It's game on.
daily updates on a surge that never came ...
Back in the real world I learn of serious and expensive Brexit delays, whilst I am working, but the media are not interested. The only Brexit story that matters is EU vaccine rollout, and Starmer would be a fool to want to be seen criticising Brexit business negatives, which would be viewed through a prism of his tacitly defending the EU on vaccination provision.
I had drinks late night last night with some friends so am tired.
There are three main outliers
*Blair, who never dropped
*Cameron, who dropped during the Brown bounce, and recovered back to where he was
*Corbyn, who only rose when May stacked it, and recovered back to where he was
Sadiq has coined a brand new slogan, a work of genius even though it has more than three words. He will be tough on crime and tough on the causes of crime!
It's also pretty clear what the next step in Making Brexit Work looks like- it's the plan @Richard_Nabavi put forward here a while back. At the moment, the government aren't ready for that- look how small the metaphorical small print was on the Europe bit of the science announcement yesterday.
But for everyone's sake, what happens next has to have the PM's fingerprints (and his alone) on it. So Starmer needs to shut up about it and then loudly welcome government shuffles when they happen.
I, and I'm sure everyone else here is fully aware of what it's supposed to mean and we don't need it REPEATEDLY SHOUTED at us!
I am not a fan of Sir Keir, but what I don’t get is how people who are fans of his think these ratings, and all the others, are good. They find solace in the fact Corbyn’s were worse, but ignore the fact that Milibands were the same.
I don't personally think Keir is doing a *great* job but I don't think he's doing a *bad* job.
Slogans such as
Ein Volk, Ein Reich, Ein Führer!
or
Make America Great Again
were also shouted!
We just left the EU. We have a pandemic. The Government got the vaccine programme very right. The EU got it very wrong.
Starmer calling for us to join the EU scheme, with extra very onerous burdens just for us, was a serious error on his part. But the potentially era-defining contrast between the UK and EU on vaccines is something anyone would struggle with.
LOL!
Also:
"he mistakenly referred to the TUC - the Trades Union Congress - as the "TLC", admitting he’d momentarily got them confused with the chart-topping 90s girl group."
Hat and coat....
For what it's worth, who are these people who think Starmer's current ratings are good? I certainly don't, and I'm not aware of any other left-leaning folk on here who are celebrating the apparent decline in his popularity, which wasn't that high in the first place.
My details have been passed to the local NHS Board, apparently, who may contact me in a week failing which I have a telephone number I can call. What I would give for a system like you have locally. This is pathetic.
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/political-monitor-satisfaction-ratings-1997-present
Cameron's ratings took the biggest hit when Brown came in - the Brown Bounce.
Brown came in 2007 and the first LOTO rating was July of that year, with Cameron at -4 (31 + : 35 -)
The April, May and June ratings were consistent with this (-3, -4, -5).
In September, they were briefly minus 22. The sort of fall other LOTOs did not shrug off.
I don’t think I am a one trick pony, but if I were, so what?
The narrative that suggests there is a crime wave in London, and the perpetrators are serving police officers.
I do not have an issue with Starmer and he is in an invidious position
The danger for Starmer is that in little under 5 weeks Labour may have underperformed in Scotland, Wales, and England and lost Hartlepool
I am not predicting it, but it is not inconceivable with London being labour's only success on the day
Yet when I asked for this certificate, they found that I wasn't registered with them, even though I'd arranged for transfer of records from the former place within a few weeks of moving.
Good morning, everyone.
As shown, it is only once Brown stacked his Bounce that Cameron's ratings transformed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=79EVO6J9_7Y
...
The vaccine success is also significant, as others have pointed out. I'm struggling to think of when a British government last did something as well. It's often said that the electorate doesn't do gratitude, but I wonder whether this might be an exception because the success is so unusually clear.
Both dull leaders taking over from unpopular leaders who led their parties to landslide defeats ie Hague in 2001 and Corbyn in 2019.
Both facing a dominant, charismatic PM ie Blair and Boris.
Both taking over at a time when events overshadowed them ie 9/11 and the Iraq War and now Covid and Brexit.
However IDS actually did not do too badly in his first local elections as leader in May 2002 with the Tories gaining 238 seats and control of 9 councils. On national voteshare the Tories got 34%, Labour 33% and the LDs 27% so IDS' Tories actually narrowly led on voteshare.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_United_Kingdom_local_elections
I expect Starmer would be pleased if he matched IDS' 2002 locals result in May
The biggest negative for Cameron was against Brown.
So, having finally agreed there, what does that mean? and does Corbyn's 2017 provide any additional information.
How about:
If your positive or negative ratings are only defined by who you're up against, they may sustain against a different challenge?
Mind you we have had both our Pfizer vaccinations
Well, with all four of the latest polls showing an increase in the Tory lead (now 8, 8, 10, 8), who can tell?
Yes LAB will do well in London and as well as Sadiq, may make further progress on the Greater London Authority.
Overall the pressure for the local elections is on LAB however, not CON.
Can LAB come back in Scotland (not likely). What about Wales (I think they might do better than expected). And in England (where in fact most of the Westminster marginals are). Will voters trust LAB to run their local councils?
One question for Mr L; have you actually used GP services in that time.or at least in the last 10 years. If you haven't it's possible you've been removed 'on assumption' although, of course, a check ought to have been made.