A year on for Starmer and he has yet been able to shake the hands of a single voter – politicalbetti

System · April 2021

A year on for Starmer and he has yet been able to shake the hands of a single voter – politicalbetting.com

I always felt sorry for IDS whose election as Tory leader was due to take place the the day after 9/11 – an event that so dominated the world that he never really had a chance to have a honeymoon period.

Read the full story here

MikeSmithson · April 2021

test

Theuniondivvie · April 2021

Failed the test of coming first.

There is never a sufficient reason to feel sorry for IDS.

DavidL · April 2021

Whilst the header makes some good points it is also the case that the last year is one in which we have paid a seriously unusual amount of attention to what politicians had to say because it has been impacting on our lives way more than normal. SKS's problem is that he seems to have remarkably little to say. I accept that in a normal year that might have been less of a problem but there was also an opportunity there that he has completely failed to grasp.

Cookie · April 2021

Maybe if he'd spent some of his first year opposing some of the government's madder restrictions, rather than trying to up the ante on them, he might have given people more of a reason to take hin seriously.

MikeSmithson · April 2021

Theuniondivvie said:
Failed the test of coming first.

There is never a sufficient reason to feel sorry for IDS.

Sorry about that. We are still having problems Tweeting links to PB but a work round is linking to the comments thread. Alas that requires at least one comment.

Mexicanpete · April 2021

Yet Johnson is out campaigning and elbow bumping most days throughout the pandemic. Yesterday he was grafting away in B and Q.

A hi-viz a day keeps Starmer at bay!

MikeSmithson · April 2021

DavidL said:
Whilst the header makes some good points it is also the case that the last year is one in which we have paid a seriously unusual amount of attention to what politicians had to say because it has been impacting on our lives way more than normal. SKS's problem is that he seems to have remarkably little to say. I accept that in a normal year that might have been less of a problem but there was also an opportunity there that he has completely failed to grasp.

I think he has been risk averse and taking too much notice of the polls showing big support for restrictions.

ydoethur · April 2021

Theuniondivvie said:
Failed the test of coming first.

There is never a sufficient reason to feel sorry for IDS.

I tried to think of a reason to feel sorry for IDS, and to be honest, I couldn’t think of one either. Not even one involving piranha fish.

ydoethur · April 2021

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:
Whilst the header makes some good points it is also the case that the last year is one in which we have paid a seriously unusual amount of attention to what politicians had to say because it has been impacting on our lives way more than normal. SKS's problem is that he seems to have remarkably little to say. I accept that in a normal year that might have been less of a problem but there was also an opportunity there that he has completely failed to grasp.
I think he has been risk averse and taking too much notice of the polls showing big support for restrictions.

William Hague has a similar problem of course, insofar as he had to pursue votes at any costs or the Tories might even have gone backwards from ‘97.

When Starmer was elected it was far from clear Labour could regroup and hold position. That was his first task. 6th May we’ll find out if he has succeeded.

Theuniondivvie · April 2021

Not the least improvement resulting from Biden entering the White House is the massive Increase in quality of the press officer-ing. Quick Glasgow translation: ram it ya fud.

https://twitter.com/shannonrwatts/status/1377747334189051907?s=21

Mexicanpete · April 2021

DavidL said:
Whilst the header makes some good points it is also the case that the last year is one in which we have paid a seriously unusual amount of attention to what politicians had to say because it has been impacting on our lives way more than normal. SKS's problem is that he seems to have remarkably little to say. I accept that in a normal year that might have been less of a problem but there was also an opportunity there that he has completely failed to grasp.

I think the opposite is true of what you have suggested.

Starmer has, until this week, been largely supportive of the Government through the pandemic, yet the RedWall opinion poll last week suggested Labour are opposing Johnson's pandemic response for the sake of wilful opposition.

So in summary Starmer is in trouble with the PB commentators (including myself) for not opposing the Government, yet to the voters that matter, he is opposing too much.

ydoethur · April 2021

This sounds bad:

Taiwan: Dozens killed as train crashes and derails in tunnel
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-56612248

CorrectHorseBattery · April 2021

For goodness sake, there is a net swing to Labour in the Red Wall, Labour has got a better leader in Scotland and Labour is no longer talked about as being disbanded.

Bearing in mind 2019 and I remember the discussion here, Starmer’s performance is good

ydoethur · April 2021

CorrectHorseBattery said:
For goodness sake, there is a net swing to Labour in the Red Wall, Labour has got a better leader in Scotland and Labour is no longer talked about as being disbanded.

Bearing in mind 2019 and I remember the discussion here, Starmer’s performance is good

It certainly seems to be hitting the minimum necessary critieria, although I want to see the results from May before deciding on how far he’s got.

One question we could ask, however, is would any other candidate in that race have done better? And the answer to that is obviously ‘no.’ Nandy might be doing roughly as well, but if Long Bailey had been leader...

Theuniondivvie · April 2021

Some contradictions are universal
https://twitter.com/marceldirsus/status/1377895424183402497?s=21

felix · April 2021

CorrectHorseBattery said:
For goodness sake, there is a net swing to Labour in the Red Wall, Labour has got a better leader in Scotland and Labour is no longer talked about as being disbanded.

Bearing in mind 2019 and I remember the discussion here, Starmer’s performance is good

The net swing is tiny and after Corbyn it would have been near impossible to go backward. I'd say his performance so far is about average. He still has many problems withing his party - and his juggling with the various factions makes his task very difficult. There is aslo a sense that he is afradi to reveal his own beliefs because he knows they may not be popular. Labour's real problem remains it's focus on identity politics - to many groups often pulling in different directions. In recent times only Tony Blair was able to solve that conundrum - and he has never been forgiven for it!

Mexicanpete · April 2021

ydoethur said:

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:
Whilst the header makes some good points it is also the case that the last year is one in which we have paid a seriously unusual amount of attention to what politicians had to say because it has been impacting on our lives way more than normal. SKS's problem is that he seems to have remarkably little to say. I accept that in a normal year that might have been less of a problem but there was also an opportunity there that he has completely failed to grasp.
I think he has been risk averse and taking too much notice of the polls showing big support for restrictions.
William Hague has a similar problem of course, insofar as he had to pursue votes at any costs or the Tories might even have gone backwards from ‘97.

When Starmer was elected it was far from clear Labour could regroup and hold position. That was his first task. 6th May we’ll find out if he has succeeded.

I am not sure during the pandemic it necessarily tells us that even. Starmer was fortunate through most of last year to close the gap on the back of Johnson's incompetence, that the media had latched onto . Starmer has subsequently fallen back because the media narrative around vaccination success on the Government's watch has been wholly positive.

I have always been convinced that the media narrative swings support for the two main competing parties. Black Wednesday highlighted this very well (as did Cummings). So Johnson is only as good, and Starmer is only as bad, until the next big calamity to befall the Government... whenever that may be.

Blair is often cited here as Ying to Starmer's Yang, but Blair rode the long post Black Wednesday wave of media perceived Government incompetence. Governments lose elections, oppositions don't win them. Starmer needs some good old Johnson chaos, surely he won't have to wait long.

DavidL · April 2021

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:
Whilst the header makes some good points it is also the case that the last year is one in which we have paid a seriously unusual amount of attention to what politicians had to say because it has been impacting on our lives way more than normal. SKS's problem is that he seems to have remarkably little to say. I accept that in a normal year that might have been less of a problem but there was also an opportunity there that he has completely failed to grasp.
I think he has been risk averse and taking too much notice of the polls showing big support for restrictions.

I agree. He needs to have a clear position and some sort of vision of what he wants. At different times he has hinted that the policy in respect of airports and foreign travel was not particularly wise (as opposed to stark raving bonkers), he is now hinting that he has some reservations about Covid Passports but it is ambiguous.

It's tough being in opposition when big things are happening and the decisions are all in the government. To be heard or noticed you need to be clear, coherent and unequivocal. Blair did that brilliantly in the aftermath of Black Wednesday and Vince Cable was good in the period after the GFC. SKS has been poor and people have noticed.

IanB2 · April 2021

Theuniondivvie said:
Failed the test of coming first.

There is never a sufficient reason to feel sorry for IDS.

There's no evidence that his greater exposure to the public earlier in his leadership would have done anything other than accelerate his demise.

londonpubman · April 2021

felix said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:
For goodness sake, there is a net swing to Labour in the Red Wall, Labour has got a better leader in Scotland and Labour is no longer talked about as being disbanded.

Bearing in mind 2019 and I remember the discussion here, Starmer’s performance is good
The net swing is tiny and after Corbyn it would have been near impossible to go backward. I'd say his performance so far is about average. He still has many problems withing his party - and his juggling with the various factions makes his task very difficult. There is aslo a sense that he is afradi to reveal his own beliefs because he knows they may not be popular. Labour's real problem remains it's focus on identity politics - to many groups often pulling in different directions. In recent times only Tony Blair was able to solve that conundrum - and he has never been forgiven for it!

Lab really should be well clear at the moment, in mid term. But they are not.

But if Con go for domestic vaccine passports everyone will be voting Lab and CHB will be celebrating an election victory!

DavidL · April 2021

Mexicanpete said:

DavidL said:
Whilst the header makes some good points it is also the case that the last year is one in which we have paid a seriously unusual amount of attention to what politicians had to say because it has been impacting on our lives way more than normal. SKS's problem is that he seems to have remarkably little to say. I accept that in a normal year that might have been less of a problem but there was also an opportunity there that he has completely failed to grasp.
I think the opposite is true of what you have suggested.

Starmer has, until this week, been largely supportive of the Government through the pandemic, yet the RedWall opinion poll last week suggested Labour are opposing Johnson's pandemic response for the sake of wilful opposition.

So in summary Starmer is in trouble with the PB commentators (including myself) for not opposing the Government, yet to the voters that matter, he is opposing too much.

But that is because he has not had clear messages one way or the other. That is fatal and disappoints both camps.

IanB2 · April 2021

londonpubman said:

felix said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:
For goodness sake, there is a net swing to Labour in the Red Wall, Labour has got a better leader in Scotland and Labour is no longer talked about as being disbanded.

Bearing in mind 2019 and I remember the discussion here, Starmer’s performance is good
The net swing is tiny and after Corbyn it would have been near impossible to go backward. I'd say his performance so far is about average. He still has many problems withing his party - and his juggling with the various factions makes his task very difficult. There is aslo a sense that he is afradi to reveal his own beliefs because he knows they may not be popular. Labour's real problem remains it's focus on identity politics - to many groups often pulling in different directions. In recent times only Tony Blair was able to solve that conundrum - and he has never been forgiven for it!
Lab really should be well clear at the moment, in mid term. But they are not.

But if Con go for domestic vaccine passports everyone will be voting Lab and CHB will be celebrating an election victory!

Certainly if they go ahead now, at the worst possible time, when older folk have been done yet first vaccine progress is slowing dramatically for everyone else. It's a question to return to once vaccination is on offer to all, and only then if the situation with the pandemic remains concerning.

IanB2 · April 2021

ydoethur said:
This sounds bad:

Taiwan: Dozens killed as train crashes and derails in tunnel
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-56612248

Dozens killed is objectively bad, there is no 'sounds' about it.

Mexicanpete · April 2021

DavidL said:

Mexicanpete said:

DavidL said:
Whilst the header makes some good points it is also the case that the last year is one in which we have paid a seriously unusual amount of attention to what politicians had to say because it has been impacting on our lives way more than normal. SKS's problem is that he seems to have remarkably little to say. I accept that in a normal year that might have been less of a problem but there was also an opportunity there that he has completely failed to grasp.
I think the opposite is true of what you have suggested.

Starmer has, until this week, been largely supportive of the Government through the pandemic, yet the RedWall opinion poll last week suggested Labour are opposing Johnson's pandemic response for the sake of wilful opposition.

So in summary Starmer is in trouble with the PB commentators (including myself) for not opposing the Government, yet to the voters that matter, he is opposing too much.
But that is because he has not had clear messages one way or the other. That is fatal and disappoints both camps.

What is Johnson's clear message otherthan three word soundbites? I think in the pandemic your critique resonates with the difficulty highlighted by Mike. Don't believe I am yet convinced by Starmer, but I think it might be too early to throw the baby out with the bath water.

Stuartinromford · April 2021

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:
Whilst the header makes some good points it is also the case that the last year is one in which we have paid a seriously unusual amount of attention to what politicians had to say because it has been impacting on our lives way more than normal. SKS's problem is that he seems to have remarkably little to say. I accept that in a normal year that might have been less of a problem but there was also an opportunity there that he has completely failed to grasp.
I think he has been risk averse and taking too much notice of the polls showing big support for restrictions.
William Hague has a similar problem of course, insofar as he had to pursue votes at any costs or the Tories might even have gone backwards from ‘97.

When Starmer was elected it was far from clear Labour could regroup and hold position. That was his first task. 6th May we’ll find out if he has succeeded.
I am not sure during the pandemic it necessarily tells us that even. Starmer was fortunate through most of last year to close the gap on the back of Johnson's incompetence, that the media had latched onto . Starmer has subsequently fallen back because the media narrative around vaccination success on the Government's watch has been wholly positive.

I have always been convinced that the media narrative swings support for the two main competing parties. Black Wednesday highlighted this very well (as did Cummings). So Johnson is only as good, and Starmer is only as bad, until the next big calamity to befall the Government... whenever that may be.

Blair is often cited here as Ying to Starmer's Yang, but Blair rode the long post Black Wednesday wave of media perceived Government incompetence. Governments lose elections, oppositions don't win them. Starmer needs some good old Johnson chaos, surely he won't have to wait long.

And that comes back to the contradiction at the heart of being Leader of the Opposition. You have to be a rousing campaigner and someone people can imagine as Prime Minister. It's very hard to do both at once.

DavidL · April 2021

Mexicanpete said:

DavidL said:

Mexicanpete said:

DavidL said:
Whilst the header makes some good points it is also the case that the last year is one in which we have paid a seriously unusual amount of attention to what politicians had to say because it has been impacting on our lives way more than normal. SKS's problem is that he seems to have remarkably little to say. I accept that in a normal year that might have been less of a problem but there was also an opportunity there that he has completely failed to grasp.
I think the opposite is true of what you have suggested.

Starmer has, until this week, been largely supportive of the Government through the pandemic, yet the RedWall opinion poll last week suggested Labour are opposing Johnson's pandemic response for the sake of wilful opposition.

So in summary Starmer is in trouble with the PB commentators (including myself) for not opposing the Government, yet to the voters that matter, he is opposing too much.
But that is because he has not had clear messages one way or the other. That is fatal and disappoints both camps.
What is Johnson's clear message otherthan three word soundbites? I think in the pandemic your critique resonates with the difficulty highlighted by Mike. Don't believe I am yet convinced by Starmer, but I think it might be too early to throw the baby out with the bath water.

I am not saying that anything should be thrown out. I am suggesting he needs to up his game and sharpen his messaging. And don't knock 3 word messages. In the right hands they are deadly: "Take back control".

Fernando · April 2021

Aren’t you missing the obvious. He was doing quite well in 2020. However, since then Johnson has been shown to have made the correct decisions on vaccines. Starmer can’t escape from the popular judgement that he would have left us in the same position as the EU.
One leader was right. The other was wrong. We rarely have such a clear division.

ydoethur · April 2021

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:
This sounds bad:

Taiwan: Dozens killed as train crashes and derails in tunnel
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-56612248
Dozens killed is objectively bad, there is no 'sounds' about it.

Well, yes, alright, point taken, but what I meant was that it sounds worse than the headline. 41 dead and over 200 trapped could become worse still.

To put it another way, if even half those trapped at this moment don’t make it that would be a more lethal railway accident than any in Britain since Quintinshill in May 1915.

Mexicanpete · April 2021

DavidL said:

Mexicanpete said:

DavidL said:

Mexicanpete said:

DavidL said:
Whilst the header makes some good points it is also the case that the last year is one in which we have paid a seriously unusual amount of attention to what politicians had to say because it has been impacting on our lives way more than normal. SKS's problem is that he seems to have remarkably little to say. I accept that in a normal year that might have been less of a problem but there was also an opportunity there that he has completely failed to grasp.
I think the opposite is true of what you have suggested.

Starmer has, until this week, been largely supportive of the Government through the pandemic, yet the RedWall opinion poll last week suggested Labour are opposing Johnson's pandemic response for the sake of wilful opposition.

So in summary Starmer is in trouble with the PB commentators (including myself) for not opposing the Government, yet to the voters that matter, he is opposing too much.
But that is because he has not had clear messages one way or the other. That is fatal and disappoints both camps.
What is Johnson's clear message otherthan three word soundbites? I think in the pandemic your critique resonates with the difficulty highlighted by Mike. Don't believe I am yet convinced by Starmer, but I think it might be too early to throw the baby out with the bath water.
I am not saying that anything should be thrown out. I am suggesting he needs to up his game and sharpen his messaging. And don't knock 3 word messages. In the right hands they are deadly: "Take back control".

...and look where that got us, "Irish Sea border".

DavidL · April 2021

Mexicanpete said:

DavidL said:

Mexicanpete said:

DavidL said:

Mexicanpete said:

DavidL said:
Whilst the header makes some good points it is also the case that the last year is one in which we have paid a seriously unusual amount of attention to what politicians had to say because it has been impacting on our lives way more than normal. SKS's problem is that he seems to have remarkably little to say. I accept that in a normal year that might have been less of a problem but there was also an opportunity there that he has completely failed to grasp.
I think the opposite is true of what you have suggested.

Starmer has, until this week, been largely supportive of the Government through the pandemic, yet the RedWall opinion poll last week suggested Labour are opposing Johnson's pandemic response for the sake of wilful opposition.

So in summary Starmer is in trouble with the PB commentators (including myself) for not opposing the Government, yet to the voters that matter, he is opposing too much.
But that is because he has not had clear messages one way or the other. That is fatal and disappoints both camps.
What is Johnson's clear message otherthan three word soundbites? I think in the pandemic your critique resonates with the difficulty highlighted by Mike. Don't believe I am yet convinced by Starmer, but I think it might be too early to throw the baby out with the bath water.
I am not saying that anything should be thrown out. I am suggesting he needs to up his game and sharpen his messaging. And don't knock 3 word messages. In the right hands they are deadly: "Take back control".
...and look where that got us, "Irish Sea border".

And an 80 seat majority for Boris. That's politics and a politician aspiring to be PM really should be better at it.

Fishing · April 2021

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:
Whilst the header makes some good points it is also the case that the last year is one in which we have paid a seriously unusual amount of attention to what politicians had to say because it has been impacting on our lives way more than normal. SKS's problem is that he seems to have remarkably little to say. I accept that in a normal year that might have been less of a problem but there was also an opportunity there that he has completely failed to grasp.
I think he has been risk averse and taking too much notice of the polls showing big support for restrictions.

That is probably true. But he also has nothing to say on Brexit.

And if the leader of the opposition has nothing to say on these huge, sesmic issues, what is he there for?

Mexicanpete · April 2021

felix said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:
For goodness sake, there is a net swing to Labour in the Red Wall, Labour has got a better leader in Scotland and Labour is no longer talked about as being disbanded.

Bearing in mind 2019 and I remember the discussion here, Starmer’s performance is good
The net swing is tiny and after Corbyn it would have been near impossible to go backward. I'd say his performance so far is about average. He still has many problems withing his party - and his juggling with the various factions makes his task very difficult. There is aslo a sense that he is afradi to reveal his own beliefs because he knows they may not be popular. Labour's real problem remains it's focus on identity politics - to many groups often pulling in different directions. In recent times only Tony Blair was able to solve that conundrum - and he has never been forgiven for it!

Tony Blair was perceived as a lightweight Bambi by the same people who are saying Starmer is rubbish and Johnson is a genius.

That is not to say the time hasn't arrived for Starmer to pull his finger out

CorrectHorseBattery · April 2021

Vaccine passports are a disgrace and any young voters should use this as the motivation to come out to vote next time. Of course they won't.

CorrectHorseBattery · April 2021

Fishing said:

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:
Whilst the header makes some good points it is also the case that the last year is one in which we have paid a seriously unusual amount of attention to what politicians had to say because it has been impacting on our lives way more than normal. SKS's problem is that he seems to have remarkably little to say. I accept that in a normal year that might have been less of a problem but there was also an opportunity there that he has completely failed to grasp.
I think he has been risk averse and taking too much notice of the polls showing big support for restrictions.
That is probably true. But he also has nothing to say on Brexit.

And if the leader of the opposition has nothing to say on these huge, sesmic issues, what is he there for?

He literally talked about Brexit yesterday though, I posted it.

Labour policy is not rejoin, it's to stay out of the EU and to make the current deal work. That's a policy.

Fishing · April 2021

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Fishing said:

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:
Whilst the header makes some good points it is also the case that the last year is one in which we have paid a seriously unusual amount of attention to what politicians had to say because it has been impacting on our lives way more than normal. SKS's problem is that he seems to have remarkably little to say. I accept that in a normal year that might have been less of a problem but there was also an opportunity there that he has completely failed to grasp.
I think he has been risk averse and taking too much notice of the polls showing big support for restrictions.
That is probably true. But he also has nothing to say on Brexit.

And if the leader of the opposition has nothing to say on these huge, sesmic issues, what is he there for?
He literally talked about Brexit yesterday though, I posted it.

Labour policy is not rejoin, it's to stay out of the EU and to make the current deal work. That's a policy.

Fair enough. He sort of has a policy now that it has ceased to matter. I make that his fifth or sixth? Let's see how long it lasts.

isam · April 2021

Fernando said:
Aren’t you missing the obvious. He was doing quite well in 2020. However, since then Johnson has been shown to have made the correct decisions on vaccines. Starmer can’t escape from the popular judgement that he would have left us in the same position as the EU.
One leader was right. The other was wrong. We rarely have such a clear division.

Good spot. Starmer was leading in the ratings and Labour led the polls - but, now more people know who he is, his ratings have fallen off a cliff.

Look at these YouGovs - since he took over he hasn’t got any more positives, and all the don’t knows have gone negative, it is almost strangely ridiculously clear

BluestBlue · April 2021

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Fishing said:

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:
Whilst the header makes some good points it is also the case that the last year is one in which we have paid a seriously unusual amount of attention to what politicians had to say because it has been impacting on our lives way more than normal. SKS's problem is that he seems to have remarkably little to say. I accept that in a normal year that might have been less of a problem but there was also an opportunity there that he has completely failed to grasp.
I think he has been risk averse and taking too much notice of the polls showing big support for restrictions.
That is probably true. But he also has nothing to say on Brexit.

And if the leader of the opposition has nothing to say on these huge, sesmic issues, what is he there for?
He literally talked about Brexit yesterday though, I posted it.

Labour policy is not rejoin, it's to stay out of the EU and to make the current deal work. That's a policy.

It's also the exact same policy as that of the Conservative government, which he's just copied and pasted. Wow, I didn't know he was going to be this bold!

eek · April 2021

Fishing said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Fishing said:

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:
Whilst the header makes some good points it is also the case that the last year is one in which we have paid a seriously unusual amount of attention to what politicians had to say because it has been impacting on our lives way more than normal. SKS's problem is that he seems to have remarkably little to say. I accept that in a normal year that might have been less of a problem but there was also an opportunity there that he has completely failed to grasp.
I think he has been risk averse and taking too much notice of the polls showing big support for restrictions.
That is probably true. But he also has nothing to say on Brexit.

And if the leader of the opposition has nothing to say on these huge, sesmic issues, what is he there for?
He literally talked about Brexit yesterday though, I posted it.

Labour policy is not rejoin, it's to stay out of the EU and to make the current deal work. That's a policy.
Fair enough. He sort of has a policy now that it has ceased to matter. I make that his fifth or sixth? Let's see how long it lasts.

The situation with the EU was very fluid until we left with no real deal in January - from that point the only sane policy is to do what is necessary for to make an impossible situation work.

isam · April 2021

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Fishing said:

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:
Whilst the header makes some good points it is also the case that the last year is one in which we have paid a seriously unusual amount of attention to what politicians had to say because it has been impacting on our lives way more than normal. SKS's problem is that he seems to have remarkably little to say. I accept that in a normal year that might have been less of a problem but there was also an opportunity there that he has completely failed to grasp.
I think he has been risk averse and taking too much notice of the polls showing big support for restrictions.
That is probably true. But he also has nothing to say on Brexit.

And if the leader of the opposition has nothing to say on these huge, sesmic issues, what is he there for?
He literally talked about Brexit yesterday though, I posted it.

Labour policy is not rejoin, it's to stay out of the EU and to make the current deal work. That's a policy.

His problem there is that, as the main man behind the ‘people’s vote’ refusal to accept the leave vote, it would be like Farage trying to convince us he is the man to be PM in a country that voted Remain, and that he won’t sneakily try and get us out of the EU in the future

ydoethur · April 2021

BluestBlue said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Fishing said:

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:
Whilst the header makes some good points it is also the case that the last year is one in which we have paid a seriously unusual amount of attention to what politicians had to say because it has been impacting on our lives way more than normal. SKS's problem is that he seems to have remarkably little to say. I accept that in a normal year that might have been less of a problem but there was also an opportunity there that he has completely failed to grasp.
I think he has been risk averse and taking too much notice of the polls showing big support for restrictions.
That is probably true. But he also has nothing to say on Brexit.

And if the leader of the opposition has nothing to say on these huge, sesmic issues, what is he there for?
He literally talked about Brexit yesterday though, I posted it.

Labour policy is not rejoin, it's to stay out of the EU and to make the current deal work. That's a policy.
It's also the exact same policy as that of the Conservative government, which he's just copied and pasted. Wow, I didn't know he was going to be this bold!

It’s also a rather foolish policy given the current deal has only been operating for a few weeks and it’s proved totally unworkable. The EU and the UK have both breached it already.

kinabalu · April 2021

Yes, this is why it's ludicrous to be writing off Starmer due to current mediocre ratings. There has been nothing but Covid since he got the job. No space for the opposition to attack and carve out a strong and distinctive identity. Just no appetite for it amongst the public (as opposed to winky wonky geeks like us).

Keir: "Today, I set out why this government is the worst in modern times. A bunch of total charlatans, led by a prize example of the breed, who might have lucked out on vaccines, as even the blind squirrel will eventually stumble on a nut, but other than that are an utter disaster, and what's worse do not give a flying fig so long as they can keep on shoving the moolah in the direction of their fatcat mates".

Public: "Oh shut up for fuck's sake you irritating little man. We want to hear from Boris about the roadmap."

This has been the political landscape and dynamic of the pandemic. Starmer knows this and has cut his cloth accordingly. He's ridden it out with the objective of 'do no damage' and he has succeeded. He is ready to roll now, as normal life resumes and normal politics resumes. It's game on.

BannedinnParis · April 2021

Ah 2019
daily updates on a surge that never came ...

Fishing · April 2021

eek said:

Fishing said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Fishing said:

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:
Whilst the header makes some good points it is also the case that the last year is one in which we have paid a seriously unusual amount of attention to what politicians had to say because it has been impacting on our lives way more than normal. SKS's problem is that he seems to have remarkably little to say. I accept that in a normal year that might have been less of a problem but there was also an opportunity there that he has completely failed to grasp.
I think he has been risk averse and taking too much notice of the polls showing big support for restrictions.
That is probably true. But he also has nothing to say on Brexit.

And if the leader of the opposition has nothing to say on these huge, sesmic issues, what is he there for?
He literally talked about Brexit yesterday though, I posted it.

Labour policy is not rejoin, it's to stay out of the EU and to make the current deal work. That's a policy.
Fair enough. He sort of has a policy now that it has ceased to matter. I make that his fifth or sixth? Let's see how long it lasts.
The situation with the EU was very fluid until we left with no real deal in January - from that point the only sane policy is to do what is necessary for to make an impossible situation work.

But if it is impossible how can it be sane to try and make it work? Surely the sane thing to do would be to try and change it?

Mexicanpete · April 2021

Fishing said:

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:
Whilst the header makes some good points it is also the case that the last year is one in which we have paid a seriously unusual amount of attention to what politicians had to say because it has been impacting on our lives way more than normal. SKS's problem is that he seems to have remarkably little to say. I accept that in a normal year that might have been less of a problem but there was also an opportunity there that he has completely failed to grasp.
I think he has been risk averse and taking too much notice of the polls showing big support for restrictions.
That is probably true. But he also has nothing to say on Brexit.

And if the leader of the opposition has nothing to say on these huge, sesmic issues, what is he there for?

I think one his few nuggets of wisdom at the moment is to shut up about Brexit, which for many voters it is a matter they consider done.

Back in the real world I learn of serious and expensive Brexit delays, whilst I am working, but the media are not interested. The only Brexit story that matters is EU vaccine rollout, and Starmer would be a fool to want to be seen criticising Brexit business negatives, which would be viewed through a prism of his tacitly defending the EU on vaccination provision.

eek · April 2021

Fishing said:

eek said:

Fishing said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Fishing said:

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:
Whilst the header makes some good points it is also the case that the last year is one in which we have paid a seriously unusual amount of attention to what politicians had to say because it has been impacting on our lives way more than normal. SKS's problem is that he seems to have remarkably little to say. I accept that in a normal year that might have been less of a problem but there was also an opportunity there that he has completely failed to grasp.
I think he has been risk averse and taking too much notice of the polls showing big support for restrictions.
That is probably true. But he also has nothing to say on Brexit.

And if the leader of the opposition has nothing to say on these huge, sesmic issues, what is he there for?
He literally talked about Brexit yesterday though, I posted it.

Labour policy is not rejoin, it's to stay out of the EU and to make the current deal work. That's a policy.
Fair enough. He sort of has a policy now that it has ceased to matter. I make that his fifth or sixth? Let's see how long it lasts.
The situation with the EU was very fluid until we left with no real deal in January - from that point the only sane policy is to do what is necessary for to make an impossible situation work.
But if it is impossible how can it be sane to try and make it work? Surely the sane thing to do would be to try and change it?

How many voters understand the difficulties Boris has created - there is no votes in that

rottenborough · April 2021

Anecdata: just out of curiosity I thought I would check my local mass vaccine centre availability. You can walk in in an hour's time and have the jab if over 50 or otherwise eligible.

Fishing · April 2021

Mexicanpete said:

Fishing said:

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:
Whilst the header makes some good points it is also the case that the last year is one in which we have paid a seriously unusual amount of attention to what politicians had to say because it has been impacting on our lives way more than normal. SKS's problem is that he seems to have remarkably little to say. I accept that in a normal year that might have been less of a problem but there was also an opportunity there that he has completely failed to grasp.
I think he has been risk averse and taking too much notice of the polls showing big support for restrictions.
That is probably true. But he also has nothing to say on Brexit.

And if the leader of the opposition has nothing to say on these huge, sesmic issues, what is he there for?
I think one his few nuggets of wisdom at the moment is to shut up about Brexit, which for many voters it is a matter they consider done.

Actually I should have written that he HAD nothing to say on Brexit last year when it might have mattered.

I had drinks late night last night with some friends so am tired.

BluestBlue · April 2021

isam said:

Fernando said:
Aren’t you missing the obvious. He was doing quite well in 2020. However, since then Johnson has been shown to have made the correct decisions on vaccines. Starmer can’t escape from the popular judgement that he would have left us in the same position as the EU.
One leader was right. The other was wrong. We rarely have such a clear division.
Good spot. Starmer was leading in the ratings and Labour led the polls - but, now more people know who he is, his ratings have fallen off a cliff.

Look at these YouGovs - since he took over he hasn’t got any more positives, and all the don’t knows have gone negative, it is almost strangely ridiculously clear

Excellent charts. Remember when we used to be told that Starmer's high initial Don't Knows were a good thing, because they would inevitably turn into positives once people got to know him? That, er, hasn't happened at all. Quite the reverse, in fact.

BannedinnParis · April 2021

isam said:

Fernando said:
Aren’t you missing the obvious. He was doing quite well in 2020. However, since then Johnson has been shown to have made the correct decisions on vaccines. Starmer can’t escape from the popular judgement that he would have left us in the same position as the EU.
One leader was right. The other was wrong. We rarely have such a clear division.
Good spot. Starmer was leading in the ratings and Labour led the polls - but, now more people know who he is, his ratings have fallen off a cliff.

Look at these YouGovs - since he took over he hasn’t got any more positives, and all the don’t knows have gone negative, it is almost strangely ridiculously clear

This broadly happens with most LOTO - start well, as people know them, they drop.

There are three main outliers

*Blair, who never dropped
*Cameron, who dropped during the Brown bounce, and recovered back to where he was
*Corbyn, who only rose when May stacked it, and recovered back to where he was

DecrepiterJohnL · April 2021

OT in the London Mayor race (6 May) Sadiq Khan's leaflet has arrived. Just a single sheet, unlike the Tories' magazine-like booklet. Sadiq claims it is a two-horse race. If the polls are right, the race is between Labour and fresh air.

Sadiq has coined a brand new slogan, a work of genius even though it has more than three words. He will be tough on crime and tough on the causes of crime!

isam · April 2021

kinabalu said:
Yes, this is why it's ludicrous to be writing off Starmer due to current mediocre ratings. There has been nothing but Covid since he got the job. No space for the opposition to attack and carve out a strong and distinctive identity. Just no appetite for it amongst the public (as opposed to winky wonky geeks like us).

Keir: "Today, I set out why this government is the worst in modern times. A bunch of total charlatans, led by a prize example of the breed, who might have lucked out on vaccines, as even the blind squirrel will eventually stumble on a nut, but other than that are an utter disaster, and what's worse do not give a flying fig so long as they can keep on shoving the moolah in the direction of their fatcat mates".

Public: "Oh shut up for fuck's sake you irritating little man. We want to hear from Boris about the roadmap."

This has been the political landscape and dynamic of the pandemic. Starmer knows this and has cut his cloth accordingly. He's ridden it out with the objective of 'do no damage' and he has succeeded. He is ready to roll now, as normal life resumes and normal politics resumes. It's game on.

That would all make sense if he hadn’t led the polls for a while, and those leads been feted as an example of his great leadership by his fans. You can’t take the bouquets and swerve the brickbats. Now, as more don’t knows make their minds up, he is disliked, not trusted and thought of as weak

Stuartinromford · April 2021

ydoethur said:

BluestBlue said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Fishing said:

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:
Whilst the header makes some good points it is also the case that the last year is one in which we have paid a seriously unusual amount of attention to what politicians had to say because it has been impacting on our lives way more than normal. SKS's problem is that he seems to have remarkably little to say. I accept that in a normal year that might have been less of a problem but there was also an opportunity there that he has completely failed to grasp.
I think he has been risk averse and taking too much notice of the polls showing big support for restrictions.
That is probably true. But he also has nothing to say on Brexit.

And if the leader of the opposition has nothing to say on these huge, sesmic issues, what is he there for?
He literally talked about Brexit yesterday though, I posted it.

Labour policy is not rejoin, it's to stay out of the EU and to make the current deal work. That's a policy.
It's also the exact same policy as that of the Conservative government, which he's just copied and pasted. Wow, I didn't know he was going to be this bold!
It’s also a rather foolish policy given the current deal has only been operating for a few weeks and it’s proved totally unworkable. The EU and the UK have both breached it already.

Of course it's a stupid deal that can't work. Which is why TMexPM ended up where she did, and look what happened to her.

It's also pretty clear what the next step in Making Brexit Work looks like- it's the plan @Richard_Nabavi put forward here a while back. At the moment, the government aren't ready for that- look how small the metaphorical small print was on the Europe bit of the science announcement yesterday.

But for everyone's sake, what happens next has to have the PM's fingerprints (and his alone) on it. So Starmer needs to shut up about it and then loudly welcome government shuffles when they happen.

isam · April 2021

BannedinnParis said:

isam said:

Fernando said:
Aren’t you missing the obvious. He was doing quite well in 2020. However, since then Johnson has been shown to have made the correct decisions on vaccines. Starmer can’t escape from the popular judgement that he would have left us in the same position as the EU.
One leader was right. The other was wrong. We rarely have such a clear division.
Good spot. Starmer was leading in the ratings and Labour led the polls - but, now more people know who he is, his ratings have fallen off a cliff.

Look at these YouGovs - since he took over he hasn’t got any more positives, and all the don’t knows have gone negative, it is almost strangely ridiculously clear

This broadly happens with most LOTO - start well, as people know them, they drop.

There are three main outliers

*Blair, who never dropped
*Cameron, who dropped during the Brown bounce, and recovered back to where he was
*Corbyn, who only rose when May stacked it, and recovered back to where he was

Cameron did terribly vs Blair and great vs Brown. But your point is a good one, and it underlines the fact that most LotOs have ratings that follow the pattern of Sir Keir’s, & don’t become PM.

OldKingCole · April 2021

Could people please either stop posting that chart about Starmer or reduce it. Or could we have another page.

I, and I'm sure everyone else here is fully aware of what it's supposed to mean and we don't need it REPEATEDLY SHOUTED at us!

isam · April 2021

BluestBlue said:

isam said:

Fernando said:
Aren’t you missing the obvious. He was doing quite well in 2020. However, since then Johnson has been shown to have made the correct decisions on vaccines. Starmer can’t escape from the popular judgement that he would have left us in the same position as the EU.
One leader was right. The other was wrong. We rarely have such a clear division.
Good spot. Starmer was leading in the ratings and Labour led the polls - but, now more people know who he is, his ratings have fallen off a cliff.

Look at these YouGovs - since he took over he hasn’t got any more positives, and all the don’t knows have gone negative, it is almost strangely ridiculously clear

Excellent charts. Remember when we used to be told that Starmer's high initial Don't Knows were a good thing, because they would inevitably turn into positives once people got to know him? That, er, hasn't happened at all. Quite the reverse, in fact.

Yes I remember it well.

I am not a fan of Sir Keir, but what I don’t get is how people who are fans of his think these ratings, and all the others, are good. They find solace in the fact Corbyn’s were worse, but ignore the fact that Milibands were the same.

BannedinnParis · April 2021

isam said:

BannedinnParis said:

isam said:

Fernando said:
Aren’t you missing the obvious. He was doing quite well in 2020. However, since then Johnson has been shown to have made the correct decisions on vaccines. Starmer can’t escape from the popular judgement that he would have left us in the same position as the EU.
One leader was right. The other was wrong. We rarely have such a clear division.
Good spot. Starmer was leading in the ratings and Labour led the polls - but, now more people know who he is, his ratings have fallen off a cliff.

Look at these YouGovs - since he took over he hasn’t got any more positives, and all the don’t knows have gone negative, it is almost strangely ridiculously clear

This broadly happens with most LOTO - start well, as people know them, they drop.

There are three main outliers

*Blair, who never dropped
*Cameron, who dropped during the Brown bounce, and recovered back to where he was
*Corbyn, who only rose when May stacked it, and recovered back to where he was
Cameron did terribly vs Blair and great vs Brown. But your point is a good one, and it underlines the fact that most LotOs have ratings that follow the pattern of Sir Keir’s, & don’t become PM.

Disagree. Cameron's negative bit was solely in that spell when Brown was hyping the election that never was.

malcolmg · April 2021

CorrectHorseBattery said:
For goodness sake, there is a net swing to Labour in the Red Wall, Labour has got a better leader in Scotland and Labour is no longer talked about as being disbanded.

Bearing in mind 2019 and I remember the discussion here, Starmer’s performance is good

LOL, "better leader in Scotland", you mean this one has a pulse. Another absolute donkey millionaire Labour regional branch leader. Will Starmer insist wales ensure they also have a millionaire branch office manager.

isam · April 2021

OldKingCole said:
Could people please either stop posting that chart about Starmer or reduce it. Or could we have another page.

I, and I'm sure everyone else here is fully aware of what it's supposed to mean and we don't need it REPEATEDLY SHOUTED at us!

Sorry. I post them because the headers only post bad polls for Boris and if you only read them you’d be under the delusion Sir Keir was doing well. Sometimes, when people pretend they’re not listening, you have to raise your voice

malcolmg · April 2021

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:
This sounds bad:

Taiwan: Dozens killed as train crashes and derails in tunnel
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-56612248
Dozens killed is objectively bad, there is no 'sounds' about it.

understatement of the century

isam · April 2021

BannedinnParis said:

isam said:

BannedinnParis said:

isam said:

Fernando said:
Aren’t you missing the obvious. He was doing quite well in 2020. However, since then Johnson has been shown to have made the correct decisions on vaccines. Starmer can’t escape from the popular judgement that he would have left us in the same position as the EU.
One leader was right. The other was wrong. We rarely have such a clear division.
Good spot. Starmer was leading in the ratings and Labour led the polls - but, now more people know who he is, his ratings have fallen off a cliff.

Look at these YouGovs - since he took over he hasn’t got any more positives, and all the don’t knows have gone negative, it is almost strangely ridiculously clear

This broadly happens with most LOTO - start well, as people know them, they drop.

There are three main outliers

*Blair, who never dropped
*Cameron, who dropped during the Brown bounce, and recovered back to where he was
*Corbyn, who only rose when May stacked it, and recovered back to where he was
Cameron did terribly vs Blair and great vs Brown. But your point is a good one, and it underlines the fact that most LotOs have ratings that follow the pattern of Sir Keir’s, & don’t become PM.
Disagree. Cameron's negative bit was solely in that spell when Brown was hyping the election that never was.

Eh? That chart shows a massive fall into negative territory for Cameron vs Blair followed by a massive spike when Brown took over!

Gallowgate · April 2021

@BannedInnParis that graph shows that Starmer's current rating isn't historically bad at all for a LOTO and is bound to go up again at some point.

I don't personally think Keir is doing a *great* job but I don't think he's doing a *bad* job.

OldKingCole · April 2021

isam said:

OldKingCole said:
Could people please either stop posting that chart about Starmer or reduce it. Or could we have another page.

I, and I'm sure everyone else here is fully aware of what it's supposed to mean and we don't need it REPEATEDLY SHOUTED at us!
Sorry. I post them because the headers only post bad polls for Boris and if you only read them you’d be under the delusion Sir Keir was doing well. Sometimes, when people pretend they’re not listening, you have to raise your voice

Slogans such as

Ein Volk, Ein Reich, Ein Führer!
or
Make America Great Again

were also shouted!

isam · April 2021

OldKingCole said:

isam said:

OldKingCole said:
Could people please either stop posting that chart about Starmer or reduce it. Or could we have another page.

I, and I'm sure everyone else here is fully aware of what it's supposed to mean and we don't need it REPEATEDLY SHOUTED at us!
Sorry. I post them because the headers only post bad polls for Boris and if you only read them you’d be under the delusion Sir Keir was doing well. Sometimes, when people pretend they’re not listening, you have to raise your voice

Slogans such as

Ein Volk, Ein Reich, Ein Führer!
or
Make America Great Again

were also shouted!

Were they now?

isam · April 2021

Gallowgate said:
@BannedInnParis that graph shows that Starmer's current rating isn't historically bad at all for a LOTO and is bound to go up again at some point.

I don't personally think Keir is doing a *great* job but I don't think he's doing a *bad* job.

That chart is worse for him than I thought - just total freefall, they’ve never got better. Possibly the worst impression made out of any of the LotOs that didn’t become PM

BluestBlue · April 2021

BannedinnParis said:

isam said:

BannedinnParis said:

isam said:

Fernando said:
Aren’t you missing the obvious. He was doing quite well in 2020. However, since then Johnson has been shown to have made the correct decisions on vaccines. Starmer can’t escape from the popular judgement that he would have left us in the same position as the EU.
One leader was right. The other was wrong. We rarely have such a clear division.
Good spot. Starmer was leading in the ratings and Labour led the polls - but, now more people know who he is, his ratings have fallen off a cliff.

Look at these YouGovs - since he took over he hasn’t got any more positives, and all the don’t knows have gone negative, it is almost strangely ridiculously clear

This broadly happens with most LOTO - start well, as people know them, they drop.

There are three main outliers

*Blair, who never dropped
*Cameron, who dropped during the Brown bounce, and recovered back to where he was
*Corbyn, who only rose when May stacked it, and recovered back to where he was
Cameron did terribly vs Blair and great vs Brown. But your point is a good one, and it underlines the fact that most LotOs have ratings that follow the pattern of Sir Keir’s, & don’t become PM.
Disagree. Cameron's negative bit was solely in that spell when Brown was hyping the election that never was.

As you've pointed out and the chart shows, most new LOTOs tend to lose their shine quite quickly. But so far at least, that last straight line representing Starmer is something dramatic - it looks like a meteorite on impact trajectory...

Morris_Dancer · April 2021

In Starmer's defence: the current situation is not exactly a normal one.

We just left the EU. We have a pandemic. The Government got the vaccine programme very right. The EU got it very wrong.

Starmer calling for us to join the EU scheme, with extra very onerous burdens just for us, was a serious error on his part. But the potentially era-defining contrast between the UK and EU on vaccines is something anyone would struggle with.

CorrectHorseBattery · April 2021

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-shaun-bailey-says-favourite-23838268

LOL!

Also:

"he mistakenly referred to the TUC - the Trades Union Congress - as the "TLC", admitting he’d momentarily got them confused with the chart-topping 90s girl group."

Mexicanpete · April 2021

DecrepiterJohnL said:
OT in the London Mayor race (6 May) Sadiq Khan's leaflet has arrived. Just a single sheet, unlike the Tories' magazine-like booklet. Sadiq claims it is a two-horse race. If the polls are right, the race is between Labour and fresh air.

Sadiq has coined a brand new slogan, a work of genius even though it has more than three words. He will be tough on crime and tough on the causes of crime!

So is he planning on disbanding the Met?

Hat and coat....

DecrepiterJohnL · April 2021

Mexicanpete said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:
OT in the London Mayor race (6 May) Sadiq Khan's leaflet has arrived. Just a single sheet, unlike the Tories' magazine-like booklet. Sadiq claims it is a two-horse race. If the polls are right, the race is between Labour and fresh air.

Sadiq has coined a brand new slogan, a work of genius even though it has more than three words. He will be tough on crime and tough on the causes of crime!
So is he planning on disbanding the Met?

Hat and coat....

The lesson of 2019 is that CCHQ would see no moral objection to falsely claiming its opponents will disband the police. Or anything else.

Northern_Al · April 2021

isam said:

BluestBlue said:

isam said:

Fernando said:
Aren’t you missing the obvious. He was doing quite well in 2020. However, since then Johnson has been shown to have made the correct decisions on vaccines. Starmer can’t escape from the popular judgement that he would have left us in the same position as the EU.
One leader was right. The other was wrong. We rarely have such a clear division.
Good spot. Starmer was leading in the ratings and Labour led the polls - but, now more people know who he is, his ratings have fallen off a cliff.

Look at these YouGovs - since he took over he hasn’t got any more positives, and all the don’t knows have gone negative, it is almost strangely ridiculously clear

Excellent charts. Remember when we used to be told that Starmer's high initial Don't Knows were a good thing, because they would inevitably turn into positives once people got to know him? That, er, hasn't happened at all. Quite the reverse, in fact.
Yes I remember it well.

I am not a fan of Sir Keir, but what I don’t get is how people who are fans of his think these ratings, and all the others, are good. They find solace in the fact Corbyn’s were worse, but ignore the fact that Milibands were the same.

BiB - really? From your frequent postings about Starmer's shortcomings, who'd have known?

For what it's worth, who are these people who think Starmer's current ratings are good? I certainly don't, and I'm not aware of any other left-leaning folk on here who are celebrating the apparent decline in his popularity, which wasn't that high in the first place.

DavidL · April 2021

rottenborough said:
Anecdata: just out of curiosity I thought I would check my local mass vaccine centre availability. You can walk in in an hour's time and have the jab if over 50 or otherwise eligible.

I have received an email reply from the Scottish vaccination service. They have never heard of me. Not on their system apparently. This is a little surprising since I have been at my current address for more than 30 years, with the same GP practice for 45 years and they have heard of my wife.

My details have been passed to the local NHS Board, apparently, who may contact me in a week failing which I have a telephone number I can call. What I would give for a system like you have locally. This is pathetic.

MikeSmithson · April 2021

BluestBlue said:

BannedinnParis said:

isam said:

BannedinnParis said:

isam said:

Fernando said:
Aren’t you missing the obvious. He was doing quite well in 2020. However, since then Johnson has been shown to have made the correct decisions on vaccines. Starmer can’t escape from the popular judgement that he would have left us in the same position as the EU.
One leader was right. The other was wrong. We rarely have such a clear division.
Good spot. Starmer was leading in the ratings and Labour led the polls - but, now more people know who he is, his ratings have fallen off a cliff.

Look at these YouGovs - since he took over he hasn’t got any more positives, and all the don’t knows have gone negative, it is almost strangely ridiculously clear

This broadly happens with most LOTO - start well, as people know them, they drop.

There are three main outliers

*Blair, who never dropped
*Cameron, who dropped during the Brown bounce, and recovered back to where he was
*Corbyn, who only rose when May stacked it, and recovered back to where he was
Cameron did terribly vs Blair and great vs Brown. But your point is a good one, and it underlines the fact that most LotOs have ratings that follow the pattern of Sir Keir’s, & don’t become PM.
Disagree. Cameron's negative bit was solely in that spell when Brown was hyping the election that never was.

As you've pointed out and the chart shows, most new LOTOs tend to lose their shine quite quickly. But so far at least, that last straight line representing Starmer is something dramatic - it looks like a meteorite on impact trajectory...

So we should be expecting big Tory gains in the locals on May 6th

BannedinnParis · April 2021

isam said:

BannedinnParis said:

isam said:

BannedinnParis said:

isam said:

Fernando said:
Aren’t you missing the obvious. He was doing quite well in 2020. However, since then Johnson has been shown to have made the correct decisions on vaccines. Starmer can’t escape from the popular judgement that he would have left us in the same position as the EU.
One leader was right. The other was wrong. We rarely have such a clear division.
Good spot. Starmer was leading in the ratings and Labour led the polls - but, now more people know who he is, his ratings have fallen off a cliff.

Look at these YouGovs - since he took over he hasn’t got any more positives, and all the don’t knows have gone negative, it is almost strangely ridiculously clear

This broadly happens with most LOTO - start well, as people know them, they drop.

There are three main outliers

*Blair, who never dropped
*Cameron, who dropped during the Brown bounce, and recovered back to where he was
*Corbyn, who only rose when May stacked it, and recovered back to where he was
Cameron did terribly vs Blair and great vs Brown. But your point is a good one, and it underlines the fact that most LotOs have ratings that follow the pattern of Sir Keir’s, & don’t become PM.
Disagree. Cameron's negative bit was solely in that spell when Brown was hyping the election that never was.

Eh? That chart shows a massive fall into negative territory for Cameron vs Blair followed by a massive spike when Brown took over!

I think you're mis-reading, so I went back to the raw data.

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/political-monitor-satisfaction-ratings-1997-present

Cameron's ratings took the biggest hit when Brown came in - the Brown Bounce.

Brown came in 2007 and the first LOTO rating was July of that year, with Cameron at -4 (31 + : 35 -)

The April, May and June ratings were consistent with this (-3, -4, -5).

In September, they were briefly minus 22. The sort of fall other LOTOs did not shrug off.

Mexicanpete · April 2021

isam said:

BluestBlue said:

isam said:

Fernando said:
Aren’t you missing the obvious. He was doing quite well in 2020. However, since then Johnson has been shown to have made the correct decisions on vaccines. Starmer can’t escape from the popular judgement that he would have left us in the same position as the EU.
One leader was right. The other was wrong. We rarely have such a clear division.
Good spot. Starmer was leading in the ratings and Labour led the polls - but, now more people know who he is, his ratings have fallen off a cliff.

Look at these YouGovs - since he took over he hasn’t got any more positives, and all the don’t knows have gone negative, it is almost strangely ridiculously clear

Excellent charts. Remember when we used to be told that Starmer's high initial Don't Knows were a good thing, because they would inevitably turn into positives once people got to know him? That, er, hasn't happened at all. Quite the reverse, in fact.
Yes I remember it well.

I am not a fan of Sir Keir, but what I don’t get is how people who are fans of his think these ratings, and all the others, are good. They find solace in the fact Corbyn’s were worse, but ignore the fact that Milibands were the same.

You are something of a one-trick pony. Most of your posts solely focus on anti-Starmer statistics. Are you perchance, Richard Burgon?

BannedinnParis · April 2021

In terms of what you saw against Blair, Cameron's positive rating is consistent - low 30s - and stable, with dislike growing with time, until it becomes clear that Brown is coming in (late 2006 - iirc there was an extended coronation period and good ol' wiki backs me up - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2007_Labour_Party_leadership_election_(UK) - the leadership campaign started in September 2006), at which point Cameron's net score starts to drop.

Floater · April 2021

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1377881480219697159

isam · April 2021

BannedinnParis said:
Positive ratings can either be positive or positive relative to what you're up against.
isam said:

BannedinnParis said:

isam said:

BannedinnParis said:

isam said:

Fernando said:
Aren’t you missing the obvious. He was doing quite well in 2020. However, since then Johnson has been shown to have made the correct decisions on vaccines. Starmer can’t escape from the popular judgement that he would have left us in the same position as the EU.
One leader was right. The other was wrong. We rarely have such a clear division.
Good spot. Starmer was leading in the ratings and Labour led the polls - but, now more people know who he is, his ratings have fallen off a cliff.

Look at these YouGovs - since he took over he hasn’t got any more positives, and all the don’t knows have gone negative, it is almost strangely ridiculously clear

This broadly happens with most LOTO - start well, as people know them, they drop.

There are three main outliers

*Blair, who never dropped
*Cameron, who dropped during the Brown bounce, and recovered back to where he was
*Corbyn, who only rose when May stacked it, and recovered back to where he was
Cameron did terribly vs Blair and great vs Brown. But your point is a good one, and it underlines the fact that most LotOs have ratings that follow the pattern of Sir Keir’s, & don’t become PM.
Disagree. Cameron's negative bit was solely in that spell when Brown was hyping the election that never was.

Eh? That chart shows a massive fall into negative territory for Cameron vs Blair followed by a massive spike when Brown took over!
Cameron's ratings took the biggest hit when Brown came in - the Brown Bounce.

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/political-monitor-satisfaction-ratings-1997-present

Brown came in 2007 and the first LOTO rating was July of that year, with Cameron at -4 (31 + : 35 -)

The April, May and June ratings were consistent with this (-3, -4, -5).

In September, they were briefly minus 22. The sort of fall other LOTOs did not shrug off.

Once he started facing Brown instead of Blair in the commons his ratings transformed

Andy_JS · April 2021

Theuniondivvie said:
Some contradictions are universal
https://twitter.com/marceldirsus/status/1377895424183402497?s=21

It makes sense to have a full lockdown in many continental European countries atm, given the numbers.

isam · April 2021

Mexicanpete said:

isam said:

BluestBlue said:

isam said:

Fernando said:
Aren’t you missing the obvious. He was doing quite well in 2020. However, since then Johnson has been shown to have made the correct decisions on vaccines. Starmer can’t escape from the popular judgement that he would have left us in the same position as the EU.
One leader was right. The other was wrong. We rarely have such a clear division.
Good spot. Starmer was leading in the ratings and Labour led the polls - but, now more people know who he is, his ratings have fallen off a cliff.

Look at these YouGovs - since he took over he hasn’t got any more positives, and all the don’t knows have gone negative, it is almost strangely ridiculously clear

Excellent charts. Remember when we used to be told that Starmer's high initial Don't Knows were a good thing, because they would inevitably turn into positives once people got to know him? That, er, hasn't happened at all. Quite the reverse, in fact.
Yes I remember it well.

I am not a fan of Sir Keir, but what I don’t get is how people who are fans of his think these ratings, and all the others, are good. They find solace in the fact Corbyn’s were worse, but ignore the fact that Milibands were the same.
You are something of a one-trick pony. Most of your posts solely focus on anti-Starmer statistics. Are you perchance, Richard Burgon?

No I’m not Richard Burgon.

I don’t think I am a one trick pony, but if I were, so what?

Mexicanpete · April 2021

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Mexicanpete said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:
OT in the London Mayor race (6 May) Sadiq Khan's leaflet has arrived. Just a single sheet, unlike the Tories' magazine-like booklet. Sadiq claims it is a two-horse race. If the polls are right, the race is between Labour and fresh air.

Sadiq has coined a brand new slogan, a work of genius even though it has more than three words. He will be tough on crime and tough on the causes of crime!
So is he planning on disbanding the Met?

Hat and coat....
The lesson of 2019 is that CCHQ would see no moral objection to falsely claiming its opponents will disband the police. Or anything else.

My comment was entirely tongue-in-cheek based on the news narrative surrounding the Met over the last fortnight.

The narrative that suggests there is a crime wave in London, and the perpetrators are serving police officers.

Andy_JS · April 2021

rottenborough said:
Anecdata: just out of curiosity I thought I would check my local mass vaccine centre availability. You can walk in in an hour's time and have the jab if over 50 or otherwise eligible.

Hopefully they'll be able to drop that to lower age groups quite soon.

Big_G_NorthWales · April 2021

Gallowgate said:
@BannedInnParis that graph shows that Starmer's current rating isn't historically bad at all for a LOTO and is bound to go up again at some point.

I don't personally think Keir is doing a *great* job but I don't think he's doing a *bad* job.

And your last sentence affirms that he is uninspiring

I do not have an issue with Starmer and he is in an invidious position

The danger for Starmer is that in little under 5 weeks Labour may have underperformed in Scotland, Wales, and England and lost Hartlepool

I am not predicting it, but it is not inconceivable with London being labour's only success on the day

Mexicanpete · April 2021

isam said:

Mexicanpete said:

isam said:

BluestBlue said:

isam said:

Fernando said:
Aren’t you missing the obvious. He was doing quite well in 2020. However, since then Johnson has been shown to have made the correct decisions on vaccines. Starmer can’t escape from the popular judgement that he would have left us in the same position as the EU.
One leader was right. The other was wrong. We rarely have such a clear division.
Good spot. Starmer was leading in the ratings and Labour led the polls - but, now more people know who he is, his ratings have fallen off a cliff.

Look at these YouGovs - since he took over he hasn’t got any more positives, and all the don’t knows have gone negative, it is almost strangely ridiculously clear

Excellent charts. Remember when we used to be told that Starmer's high initial Don't Knows were a good thing, because they would inevitably turn into positives once people got to know him? That, er, hasn't happened at all. Quite the reverse, in fact.
Yes I remember it well.

I am not a fan of Sir Keir, but what I don’t get is how people who are fans of his think these ratings, and all the others, are good. They find solace in the fact Corbyn’s were worse, but ignore the fact that Milibands were the same.
You are something of a one-trick pony. Most of your posts solely focus on anti-Starmer statistics. Are you perchance, Richard Burgon?
No I’m not Richard Burgon.

I don’t think I am a one trick pony, but if I were, so what?

My question was, are you Richard Burgon? Perhaps it should have been are you Rebecca Long Bailey.

OldKingCole · April 2021

Floater said:
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1377881480219697159

And our Governments response is to cut aid.

BluestBlue · April 2021

Mexicanpete said:

isam said:

BluestBlue said:

isam said:

Fernando said:
Aren’t you missing the obvious. He was doing quite well in 2020. However, since then Johnson has been shown to have made the correct decisions on vaccines. Starmer can’t escape from the popular judgement that he would have left us in the same position as the EU.
One leader was right. The other was wrong. We rarely have such a clear division.
Good spot. Starmer was leading in the ratings and Labour led the polls - but, now more people know who he is, his ratings have fallen off a cliff.

Look at these YouGovs - since he took over he hasn’t got any more positives, and all the don’t knows have gone negative, it is almost strangely ridiculously clear

Excellent charts. Remember when we used to be told that Starmer's high initial Don't Knows were a good thing, because they would inevitably turn into positives once people got to know him? That, er, hasn't happened at all. Quite the reverse, in fact.
Yes I remember it well.

I am not a fan of Sir Keir, but what I don’t get is how people who are fans of his think these ratings, and all the others, are good. They find solace in the fact Corbyn’s were worse, but ignore the fact that Milibands were the same.
You are something of a one-trick pony. Most of your posts solely focus on anti-Starmer statistics. Are you perchance, Richard Burgon?

At least @isam manages to get one thing right...

AnneJGP · April 2021

DavidL said:

rottenborough said:
Anecdata: just out of curiosity I thought I would check my local mass vaccine centre availability. You can walk in in an hour's time and have the jab if over 50 or otherwise eligible.

I have received an email reply from the Scottish vaccination service. They have never heard of me. Not on their system apparently. This is a little surprising since I have been at my current address for more than 30 years, with the same GP practice for 45 years and they have heard of my wife.

My details have been passed to the local NHS Board, apparently, who may contact me in a week failing which I have a telephone number I can call. What I would give for a system like you have locally. This is pathetic.

People can drop through the cracks. Many years ago, as a young woman, I applied for some post that required my GP to provide a medical certificate. I'd been in that place for some years and had had no problems accessing GP services when needed (they even did home visits in those days).

Yet when I asked for this certificate, they found that I wasn't registered with them, even though I'd arranged for transfer of records from the former place within a few weeks of moving.

Good morning, everyone.

BannedinnParis · April 2021

isam said:

BannedinnParis said:
Positive ratings can either be positive or positive relative to what you're up against.
isam said:

BannedinnParis said:

isam said:

BannedinnParis said:

isam said:

Fernando said:
Aren’t you missing the obvious. He was doing quite well in 2020. However, since then Johnson has been shown to have made the correct decisions on vaccines. Starmer can’t escape from the popular judgement that he would have left us in the same position as the EU.
One leader was right. The other was wrong. We rarely have such a clear division.
Good spot. Starmer was leading in the ratings and Labour led the polls - but, now more people know who he is, his ratings have fallen off a cliff.

Look at these YouGovs - since he took over he hasn’t got any more positives, and all the don’t knows have gone negative, it is almost strangely ridiculously clear

This broadly happens with most LOTO - start well, as people know them, they drop.

There are three main outliers

*Blair, who never dropped
*Cameron, who dropped during the Brown bounce, and recovered back to where he was
*Corbyn, who only rose when May stacked it, and recovered back to where he was
Cameron did terribly vs Blair and great vs Brown. But your point is a good one, and it underlines the fact that most LotOs have ratings that follow the pattern of Sir Keir’s, & don’t become PM.
Disagree. Cameron's negative bit was solely in that spell when Brown was hyping the election that never was.

Eh? That chart shows a massive fall into negative territory for Cameron vs Blair followed by a massive spike when Brown took over!
Cameron's ratings took the biggest hit when Brown came in - the Brown Bounce.

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/political-monitor-satisfaction-ratings-1997-present

Brown came in 2007 and the first LOTO rating was July of that year, with Cameron at -4 (31 + : 35 -)

The April, May and June ratings were consistent with this (-3, -4, -5).

In September, they were briefly minus 22. The sort of fall other LOTOs did not shrug off.

Once he started facing Brown instead of Blair in the commons his ratings transformed

Disagree.

As shown, it is only once Brown stacked his Bounce that Cameron's ratings transformed.

isam · April 2021

Cameron’s LOTO Ratings

DecrepiterJohnL · April 2021

OT Binkov's Battlegrounds new video: Britain vs France. (Skip past the game plug near the start.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=79EVO6J9_7Y

isam · April 2021

BannedinnParis said:

isam said:

BannedinnParis said:
Positive ratings can either be positive or positive relative to what you're up against.
isam said:

BannedinnParis said:

isam said:

BannedinnParis said:

isam said:

Fernando said:
Aren’t you missing the obvious. He was doing quite well in 2020. However, since then Johnson has been shown to have made the correct decisions on vaccines. Starmer can’t escape from the popular judgement that he would have left us in the same position as the EU.
One leader was right. The other was wrong. We rarely have such a clear division.
Good spot. Starmer was leading in the ratings and Labour led the polls - but, now more people know who he is, his ratings have fallen off a cliff.

Look at these YouGovs - since he took over he hasn’t got any more positives, and all the don’t knows have gone negative, it is almost strangely ridiculously clear

This broadly happens with most LOTO - start well, as people know them, they drop.

There are three main outliers

*Blair, who never dropped
*Cameron, who dropped during the Brown bounce, and recovered back to where he was
*Corbyn, who only rose when May stacked it, and recovered back to where he was
Cameron did terribly vs Blair and great vs Brown. But your point is a good one, and it underlines the fact that most LotOs have ratings that follow the pattern of Sir Keir’s, & don’t become PM.
Disagree. Cameron's negative bit was solely in that spell when Brown was hyping the election that never was.

Eh? That chart shows a massive fall into negative territory for Cameron vs Blair followed by a massive spike when Brown took over!
Cameron's ratings took the biggest hit when Brown came in - the Brown Bounce.

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/political-monitor-satisfaction-ratings-1997-present

Brown came in 2007 and the first LOTO rating was July of that year, with Cameron at -4 (31 + : 35 -)

The April, May and June ratings were consistent with this (-3, -4, -5).

In September, they were briefly minus 22. The sort of fall other LOTOs did not shrug off.

Once he started facing Brown instead of Blair in the commons his ratings transformed
Disagree.

As shown, it is only once Brown stacked his Bounce that Cameron's ratings transformed.

Cameron’s positives doubled between Brown taking over & the GE

...

LostPassword · April 2021

felix said:
Labour's real problem remains it's focus on identity politics

No, Labour's problem is that the Tories have played identity politics better, by winning support from voters who identify as English and patriotic, and creating a sense of distrust of Labour's patriotic credentials. Johnson is all identity politics all the time - but he has a larger identity group supporting him.

The vaccine success is also significant, as others have pointed out. I'm struggling to think of when a British government last did something as well. It's often said that the electorate doesn't do gratitude, but I wonder whether this might be an exception because the success is so unusually clear.

HYUFD · April 2021

Good thread header as IDS and Starmer are quite similar.

Both dull leaders taking over from unpopular leaders who led their parties to landslide defeats ie Hague in 2001 and Corbyn in 2019.

Both facing a dominant, charismatic PM ie Blair and Boris.

Both taking over at a time when events overshadowed them ie 9/11 and the Iraq War and now Covid and Brexit.

However IDS actually did not do too badly in his first local elections as leader in May 2002 with the Tories gaining 238 seats and control of 9 councils. On national voteshare the Tories got 34%, Labour 33% and the LDs 27% so IDS' Tories actually narrowly led on voteshare.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_United_Kingdom_local_elections

I expect Starmer would be pleased if he matched IDS' 2002 locals result in May

DavidL · April 2021

AnneJGP said:

DavidL said:

rottenborough said:
Anecdata: just out of curiosity I thought I would check my local mass vaccine centre availability. You can walk in in an hour's time and have the jab if over 50 or otherwise eligible.

I have received an email reply from the Scottish vaccination service. They have never heard of me. Not on their system apparently. This is a little surprising since I have been at my current address for more than 30 years, with the same GP practice for 45 years and they have heard of my wife.

My details have been passed to the local NHS Board, apparently, who may contact me in a week failing which I have a telephone number I can call. What I would give for a system like you have locally. This is pathetic.
People can drop through the cracks. Many years ago, as a young woman, I applied for some post that required my GP to provide a medical certificate. I'd been in that place for some years and had had no problems accessing GP services when needed (they even did home visits in those days).

Yet when I asked for this certificate, they found that I wasn't registered with them, even though I'd arranged for transfer of records from the former place within a few weeks of moving.

Good morning, everyone.

Sure, I get that, bureaucracies are imperfect things. Which is why systems should allow those using them to take the initiative to get things done. If I had been able to make an appointment online myself I would have been vaccinated weeks ago. But in Scotland the bureaucracy always knows best. So I can't.

ydoethur · April 2021

isam said:

Mexicanpete said:

isam said:

BluestBlue said:

isam said:

Fernando said:
Aren’t you missing the obvious. He was doing quite well in 2020. However, since then Johnson has been shown to have made the correct decisions on vaccines. Starmer can’t escape from the popular judgement that he would have left us in the same position as the EU.
One leader was right. The other was wrong. We rarely have such a clear division.
Good spot. Starmer was leading in the ratings and Labour led the polls - but, now more people know who he is, his ratings have fallen off a cliff.

Look at these YouGovs - since he took over he hasn’t got any more positives, and all the don’t knows have gone negative, it is almost strangely ridiculously clear

Excellent charts. Remember when we used to be told that Starmer's high initial Don't Knows were a good thing, because they would inevitably turn into positives once people got to know him? That, er, hasn't happened at all. Quite the reverse, in fact.
Yes I remember it well.

I am not a fan of Sir Keir, but what I don’t get is how people who are fans of his think these ratings, and all the others, are good. They find solace in the fact Corbyn’s were worse, but ignore the fact that Milibands were the same.
You are something of a one-trick pony. Most of your posts solely focus on anti-Starmer statistics. Are you perchance, Richard Burgon?
No I’m not Richard Burgon.

I don’t think I am a one trick pony, but if I were, so what?

As long as your one trick was the mane event it wouldn’t matter, but unfortunately most one trick ponies tail off.

BannedinnParis · April 2021

isam said:
Cameron’s LOTO Ratings

That literally shows what I just described.

The biggest negative for Cameron was against Brown.

So, having finally agreed there, what does that mean? and does Corbyn's 2017 provide any additional information.

How about:

If your positive or negative ratings are only defined by who you're up against, they may sustain against a different challenge?

Mexicanpete · April 2021

BluestBlue said:

Mexicanpete said:

isam said:

BluestBlue said:

isam said:

Fernando said:
Aren’t you missing the obvious. He was doing quite well in 2020. However, since then Johnson has been shown to have made the correct decisions on vaccines. Starmer can’t escape from the popular judgement that he would have left us in the same position as the EU.
One leader was right. The other was wrong. We rarely have such a clear division.
Good spot. Starmer was leading in the ratings and Labour led the polls - but, now more people know who he is, his ratings have fallen off a cliff.

Look at these YouGovs - since he took over he hasn’t got any more positives, and all the don’t knows have gone negative, it is almost strangely ridiculously clear

Excellent charts. Remember when we used to be told that Starmer's high initial Don't Knows were a good thing, because they would inevitably turn into positives once people got to know him? That, er, hasn't happened at all. Quite the reverse, in fact.
Yes I remember it well.

I am not a fan of Sir Keir, but what I don’t get is how people who are fans of his think these ratings, and all the others, are good. They find solace in the fact Corbyn’s were worse, but ignore the fact that Milibands were the same.
You are something of a one-trick pony. Most of your posts solely focus on anti-Starmer statistics. Are you perchance, Richard Burgon?
At least @isam manages to get one thing right...

Well it's working for Boris Johnson, I suppose.

Big_G_NorthWales · April 2021

AnneJGP said:

DavidL said:

rottenborough said:
Anecdata: just out of curiosity I thought I would check my local mass vaccine centre availability. You can walk in in an hour's time and have the jab if over 50 or otherwise eligible.

I have received an email reply from the Scottish vaccination service. They have never heard of me. Not on their system apparently. This is a little surprising since I have been at my current address for more than 30 years, with the same GP practice for 45 years and they have heard of my wife.

My details have been passed to the local NHS Board, apparently, who may contact me in a week failing which I have a telephone number I can call. What I would give for a system like you have locally. This is pathetic.
People can drop through the cracks. Many years ago, as a young woman, I applied for some post that required my GP to provide a medical certificate. I'd been in that place for some years and had had no problems accessing GP services when needed (they even did home visits in those days).

Yet when I asked for this certificate, they found that I wasn't registered with them, even though I'd arranged for transfer of records from the former place within a few weeks of moving.

Good morning, everyone.

Believe it or not my wife had the same experience even though we have been with the same practice since 1965

Mind you we have had both our Pfizer vaccinations

BluestBlue · April 2021

MikeSmithson said:

BluestBlue said:

BannedinnParis said:

isam said:

BannedinnParis said:

isam said:

Fernando said:
Aren’t you missing the obvious. He was doing quite well in 2020. However, since then Johnson has been shown to have made the correct decisions on vaccines. Starmer can’t escape from the popular judgement that he would have left us in the same position as the EU.
One leader was right. The other was wrong. We rarely have such a clear division.
Good spot. Starmer was leading in the ratings and Labour led the polls - but, now more people know who he is, his ratings have fallen off a cliff.

Look at these YouGovs - since he took over he hasn’t got any more positives, and all the don’t knows have gone negative, it is almost strangely ridiculously clear

This broadly happens with most LOTO - start well, as people know them, they drop.

There are three main outliers

*Blair, who never dropped
*Cameron, who dropped during the Brown bounce, and recovered back to where he was
*Corbyn, who only rose when May stacked it, and recovered back to where he was
Cameron did terribly vs Blair and great vs Brown. But your point is a good one, and it underlines the fact that most LotOs have ratings that follow the pattern of Sir Keir’s, & don’t become PM.
Disagree. Cameron's negative bit was solely in that spell when Brown was hyping the election that never was.

As you've pointed out and the chart shows, most new LOTOs tend to lose their shine quite quickly. But so far at least, that last straight line representing Starmer is something dramatic - it looks like a meteorite on impact trajectory...
So we should be expecting big Tory gains in the locals on May 6th

I like your optimism!

Well, with all four of the latest polls showing an increase in the Tory lead (now 8, 8, 10, 8), who can tell?

londonpubman · April 2021

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:
@BannedInnParis that graph shows that Starmer's current rating isn't historically bad at all for a LOTO and is bound to go up again at some point.

I don't personally think Keir is doing a *great* job but I don't think he's doing a *bad* job.
And your last sentence affirms that he is uninspiring

I do not have an issue with Starmer and he is in an invidious position

The danger for Starmer is that in little under 5 weeks Labour may have underperformed in Scotland, Wales, and England and lost Hartlepool

I am not predicting it, but it is not inconceivable with London being labour's only success on the day

I think LAB will hold Hartlepool.

Yes LAB will do well in London and as well as Sadiq, may make further progress on the Greater London Authority.

Overall the pressure for the local elections is on LAB however, not CON.

Can LAB come back in Scotland (not likely). What about Wales (I think they might do better than expected). And in England (where in fact most of the Westminster marginals are). Will voters trust LAB to run their local councils?

OldKingCole · April 2021

AnneJGP said:

DavidL said:

rottenborough said:
Anecdata: just out of curiosity I thought I would check my local mass vaccine centre availability. You can walk in in an hour's time and have the jab if over 50 or otherwise eligible.

I have received an email reply from the Scottish vaccination service. They have never heard of me. Not on their system apparently. This is a little surprising since I have been at my current address for more than 30 years, with the same GP practice for 45 years and they have heard of my wife.

My details have been passed to the local NHS Board, apparently, who may contact me in a week failing which I have a telephone number I can call. What I would give for a system like you have locally. This is pathetic.
People can drop through the cracks. Many years ago, as a young woman, I applied for some post that required my GP to provide a medical certificate. I'd been in that place for some years and had had no problems accessing GP services when needed (they even did home visits in those days).

Yet when I asked for this certificate, they found that I wasn't registered with them, even though I'd arranged for transfer of records from the former place within a few weeks of moving.

Good morning, everyone.

Strange. When I was concerned with these things it was, IIRC, far more likely that someone would be registered twice, largely because the (paper) records took so long to be transferred.

One question for Mr L; have you actually used GP services in that time.or at least in the last 10 years. If you haven't it's possible you've been removed 'on assumption' although, of course, a check ought to have been made.

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A year on for Starmer and he has yet been able to shake the hands of a single voter – politicalbetti

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