How will Boris be judged in future polling questions like this? – politicalbetting.com
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Thanks, I wasn't sure of the distribution of administered doses. I think the jury is still out. Cases never really went to zero, and testing is at a very low level.Leon said:
Chile is overwhelmingly using Sinovac; just a bit of PfizerRobD said:
With Brazil, it could be, although it does remind me of the reporting in the AZN study. In Chile they are using both Pfizer (10m doses according to Reuters) and Sinovac.Leon said:
Possibly because of the variants?RobD said:
Aren't the results for Sinovac varied? I think the study in Brazil had a low efficacy rate, but the one in Turkey was much higher.Leon said:
Or it shows that Sinovac - with its ~50% efficacy - does not offer enough protection against new variants, sufficient to suppress transmission, whereas Pfizer (~90%, used in Israel), does?williamglenn said:
I think it just shows that vaccination alone won't stop exponential growth if you're in the middle of a covid wave; you also need a lockdown. Sinovac did clinical trials in Chile so they should know that it works.Leon said:Looking at Chile's excellent vaccination drive, alongside its surging cases and new lockdowns, are we safe in assuming that Sinovac is shite?
All can be true to some extent
Chile is troubled by the British and Brazilian variants, AIUI
In the trials in Brazil Sinovac scored 50.4%, in Indonesia 65%, in Turkey 91% (but it seems a tiny study?)
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccine-sinovac-idUSKBN2A60AY
There is also a probelamtic lack of transparent data
Essentially, you don't want Sinovac if you can get anything else
https://twitter.com/bw_butler/status/1376481986215284737?s=20
Chile is a real-world test of Sinovac, vastly bigger than any study. At the moment it does not look great. Let's hope my pessimism is unjustified0 -
We've been hearing/reading about the death figures every day for the last 12 months.Mexicanpete said:Little comment on here from what I can see (forgive me if I have missed it) on the day the ONS confirming 150,000 UK Covid deaths.
Move along, nothing to see.1 -
Le Monde: Macron's aides say he has mastered epidemiology to the point that he no longer necessarily has to follow the advice of scientists.
https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2021/03/30/covid-19-emmanuel-macron-le-president-epidemiologiste_6074919_823448.html3 -
With interesting knock on effects on snow days... (teachers can't travel to get to the schools as they live too far away)Fysics_Teacher said:
In many schools the recommendation given to new teachers is "don't live in the catchment area". The reason is to avoid bumping into pupils or parents outside of work. I live within walking distance of school and while I haven't had many problems there is at least one pub I no longer go to after having heard "hello Sir!" a few too many times as I made my way to the bar...MattW said:
There will be some interesting actions about what "rights" you have to live distant from work.Sandpit said:
Yes, that’s the big unknown. Will companies allow enough time away from the office that a daily commute isn’t required.Gallowgate said:
Except realistically a majority will still be required to commute to central London some of the time and therefore will still need to live within commuting range.Sandpit said:
Something seismic, like huge numbers of white-collar employees no longer commuting daily to central London?Slackbladder said:
The SE is over saturated with demand. It would take something seismic to really knock house prices here.tlg86 said:
They didn't fall around Woking!DecrepiterJohnL said:
Prices did fall after the global financial crisis but have since resumed their climb.tlg86 said:
The point is that prices really ought to have fallen considerably off the back of 2008. They haven't.Philip_Thompson said:
The house price rise happened before not since though. It happened on Brown's tenure.tlg86 said:
Oh dear, I suspect I've started that argument again!MaxPB said:
Or make the landlords sell up so that young people are having their lives leeched away by the parasites.Fishing said:
... or maybe we'll finally build enough houses for the young as well as the old, which would be my preference.tlg86 said:
If the joy of sex is disappearing for young men, so too for a lot of them, is the point of sex. Russell, 18, says bleakly: “In my Dad’s day, you probably pursued sex if you’re straight to find a serious girlfriend you eventually might marry and have kids with. We can’t think like that. We don’t have the means to move out, let alone start a grown-up life. It makes it all – dating, sex, finding The One – all seem a bit pointless.”Sandpit said:
In totally unrelated news:CursingStone said:
It's all a bit Bonfire of the Vanities. Safe to attack 'perpetuators', with no one willing to back them up for transgressions that are orders of magnitude lower than in other areas with more 'complicated' issues.Andy_JS said:"Joanna Williams
There is no ‘rape culture’ in schools
Education’s ‘#MeToo moment’ is not a scandal – it’s a moral panic over teenage sex."
https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/03/29/there-is-no-rape-culture-in-schools/
“It’s too soon to say what exactly the long-term impact of the current debate is going to have, but it’s likely to contribute to the huge changes in young male sexuality that have been happening for over a decade - without most people paying them much attention.
The primary change, at its most basic level, is that young men seem to be having much less sex than at any point in recent history. The statistics are actually quite shocking when you start to think about what they mean for an entire generation.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/family/life/todays-boys-young-men-arent-obsessed-sex-terrified/
It will be interesting to see if this eventually feeds through into marriage and births stats.
I tend to agree with Max on this. Perhaps it is about supply of housing, but I honestly can't see it being fixed if it might lead to a fall in house prices.
To all of those on here praising Brown for "saving the world", fine. But what's happened since has been an unmitigated disaster and all politicians from all political parties as well as the media have contributed to it.
If I had to work two days a week in London, for example, I could live two hours away by train (that’s as far as Manchester, Leeds or Bath), buy one return train ticket and spend one night a week in a cheap London hotel.
Expect plenty of office space to be repurposed as cheap no-frills hotels in the City of London, that’s a great business model for someone.
If I need to be in the office three days a week, that’s the worst of all worlds as I’m still buying a full season ticket so need to live much closer to London.
If it’s one week a month, I can live pretty much anywhere.
When it snowed here a couple of years ago the schools closed because it was the *teachers* who could not get in, as too many were living eg over the border in slightly hilly bit of Derbyshire.
Of course also the interesting case of BA staff living in the Caribbean and commuting in to Heathrow on jockey-seats on flights.0 -
Yes, I could be wrong. I hope I am. But the trend is worryingRobD said:
Thanks, I wasn't sure of the distribution of administered doses. I think the jury is still out. Cases never really went to zero, and testing is at a very low level.Leon said:
Chile is overwhelmingly using Sinovac; just a bit of PfizerRobD said:
With Brazil, it could be, although it does remind me of the reporting in the AZN study. In Chile they are using both Pfizer (10m doses according to Reuters) and Sinovac.Leon said:
Possibly because of the variants?RobD said:
Aren't the results for Sinovac varied? I think the study in Brazil had a low efficacy rate, but the one in Turkey was much higher.Leon said:
Or it shows that Sinovac - with its ~50% efficacy - does not offer enough protection against new variants, sufficient to suppress transmission, whereas Pfizer (~90%, used in Israel), does?williamglenn said:
I think it just shows that vaccination alone won't stop exponential growth if you're in the middle of a covid wave; you also need a lockdown. Sinovac did clinical trials in Chile so they should know that it works.Leon said:Looking at Chile's excellent vaccination drive, alongside its surging cases and new lockdowns, are we safe in assuming that Sinovac is shite?
All can be true to some extent
Chile is troubled by the British and Brazilian variants, AIUI
In the trials in Brazil Sinovac scored 50.4%, in Indonesia 65%, in Turkey 91% (but it seems a tiny study?)
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccine-sinovac-idUSKBN2A60AY
There is also a probelamtic lack of transparent data
Essentially, you don't want Sinovac if you can get anything else
https://twitter.com/bw_butler/status/1376481986215284737?s=20
Chile is a real-world test of Sinovac, vastly bigger than any study. At the moment it does not look great. Let's hope my pessimism is unjustified1 -
One of the biggest cultural differences between Germany and the UK is indeed that they are more risk averse than we are, as you can see with the Uncertainty Avoidance index on here.Leon said:This German AZ news is a nightmare, for Germans. They are so risk averse, on the precautionary principle they will now ban the vax for younger women
What about young women who've had one dose, and are waiting for the second? Many will refuse it, even though the risks of serious side-effects are 1 in 90,000, whereas the risks of, say, the contraceptive pill are 1 in 1,000
https://www.hofstede-insights.com/country-comparison/germany,the-uk/0 -
Obliging young lassies telling old letches what they want to hear?Nigelb said:
Isn't there a question of selection bias in that analysis ?Leon said:
This story absolutely chimes with what young female friends tell me. Young men are asexual. Neuter. Very polite but sometimes lacking virility. This means: frustrated young womenMattW said:
I remember being painfully immature and naive.Selebian said:
Anyone remember pursuing sex at 18 to find a serious girlfriend to marry and have kids with? Was I unusually shallow as an 18 year old?tlg86 said:
If the joy of sex is disappearing for young men, so too for a lot of them, is the point of sex. Russell, 18, says bleakly: “In my Dad’s day, you probably pursued sex if you’re straight to find a serious girlfriend you eventually might marry and have kids with. We can’t think like that. We don’t have the means to move out, let alone start a grown-up life. It makes it all – dating, sex, finding The One – all seem a bit pointless.”Sandpit said:
In totally unrelated news:CursingStone said:
It's all a bit Bonfire of the Vanities. Safe to attack 'perpetuators', with no one willing to back them up for transgressions that are orders of magnitude lower than in other areas with more 'complicated' issues.Andy_JS said:"Joanna Williams
There is no ‘rape culture’ in schools
Education’s ‘#MeToo moment’ is not a scandal – it’s a moral panic over teenage sex."
https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/03/29/there-is-no-rape-culture-in-schools/
“It’s too soon to say what exactly the long-term impact of the current debate is going to have, but it’s likely to contribute to the huge changes in young male sexuality that have been happening for over a decade - without most people paying them much attention.
The primary change, at its most basic level, is that young men seem to be having much less sex than at any point in recent history. The statistics are actually quite shocking when you start to think about what they mean for an entire generation.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/family/life/todays-boys-young-men-arent-obsessed-sex-terrified/
It will be interesting to see if this eventually feeds through into marriage and births stats.
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The French interior minister pre-announces that they will implement controls from Thursday to prevent people from regions with tighter restrictions from leaving for Easter...
https://twitter.com/Mediavenir/status/13768680569750405120 -
Satire, surely?williamglenn said:Le Monde: Macron's aides say he has mastered epidemiology to the point that he no longer necessarily has to follow the advice of scientists.
https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2021/03/30/covid-19-emmanuel-macron-le-president-epidemiologiste_6074919_823448.html0 -
Johnson has had a very easy media ride since December. As he has not been challenged he has looked self-assured. When Johnson is challenged the wheels fall off. Let's hope we see some mild scrutiny.kinabalu said:
Over-interpreting, I think.Floater said:
The more he turns up the volume the more people decide - nah not for me.FrancisUrquhart said:
Gordon Brittas to reception, Gordon Brittas to reception....we have a problem.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I didn't vote for Starmer as leader. Not inspired by him. Nevertheless I'm not worried about disappointing polls. It's too early. He got the job a year ago just after a Tory landslide and since then there's been nothing but Covid. The public have no appetite for partisan politics in this climate. They want to hear about travel, vaccines, the roadmap out of lockdown, not about how Labour's vision for the country post-pandemic differs from the Tories.
The GE is not for 3 years and we'll be back to politics as usual well before then. The economy looks bad. The public finances are screwed. Starmer is establishing himself as a viable potential PM and has purged the hard left. There'll be some solid, popular policies on the way in due course. The Tories are not exactly fizzing with energy and ideas. Labour are right in the ballgame.
Way I see it, the only surefire way for the Tories to win a majority again is if they can hang on to what won it for them last time - their ownership of the WWC Leave political identity. They might be able to - certainly not ruling it out - but it'll be harder to whip up and surf the necessary nationalistic fervour without Brexit. It can't be delivered again - it now has to be experienced and that will be nothing like as thrilling.
My bets: Cons largest party at 1.8. Starmer next PM at 5.2 -
ALERT: the government is soon going to do something which will be quite confusing to add to the half hearted confusing things we are also thinking of doing, or are already sort of doing, but do not worry, the President has read every book in the world and is now a scientific geniuswilliamglenn said:The French PM pre-announces that they will implement controls from Thursday to prevent people from regions with tighter restrictions from leaving for Easter...
https://twitter.com/Mediavenir/status/13768680569750405122 -
Jeez. The "Saviour of Liberalism" is actually just Le Trump.williamglenn said:Le Monde: Macron's aides say he has mastered epidemiology to the point that he no longer necessarily has to follow the advice of scientists.
https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2021/03/30/covid-19-emmanuel-macron-le-president-epidemiologiste_6074919_823448.html2 -
Example of potential impact of ALBA on election.
THIS IS WHAT WOULD HAVE HAPPENED IN 2016 IF SNP LIST VOTES WERE FOR ALBA!
So to put it simply instead of there being FOUR SNP LIST MSP’s there would have been 33 ALBA pro Indy MSP’s.
Most important of all, take a look at the Unionists. Instead of there being 24 Tories, there would have only been 12.
Likewise, instead of 21 Labour there would have been only 11.
The Liberals would have lost both their list seats and been reduced to zero
The Greens would have lost all five of their lists seats.
So an overall INCREASE of 24 pro Indy MSP’s
An overall DECREASE of 24 unionist MSP’s0 -
Is he going to make his own effing vaccine as well ?williamglenn said:Le Monde: Macron's aides say he has mastered epidemiology to the point that he no longer necessarily has to follow the advice of scientists.
https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2021/03/30/covid-19-emmanuel-macron-le-president-epidemiologiste_6074919_823448.html0 -
A number of confounding factors, I would suggest.Theuniondivvie said:
Obliging young lassies telling old letches what they want to hear?Nigelb said:
Isn't there a question of selection bias in that analysis ?Leon said:
This story absolutely chimes with what young female friends tell me. Young men are asexual. Neuter. Very polite but sometimes lacking virility. This means: frustrated young womenMattW said:
I remember being painfully immature and naive.Selebian said:
Anyone remember pursuing sex at 18 to find a serious girlfriend to marry and have kids with? Was I unusually shallow as an 18 year old?tlg86 said:
If the joy of sex is disappearing for young men, so too for a lot of them, is the point of sex. Russell, 18, says bleakly: “In my Dad’s day, you probably pursued sex if you’re straight to find a serious girlfriend you eventually might marry and have kids with. We can’t think like that. We don’t have the means to move out, let alone start a grown-up life. It makes it all – dating, sex, finding The One – all seem a bit pointless.”Sandpit said:
In totally unrelated news:CursingStone said:
It's all a bit Bonfire of the Vanities. Safe to attack 'perpetuators', with no one willing to back them up for transgressions that are orders of magnitude lower than in other areas with more 'complicated' issues.Andy_JS said:"Joanna Williams
There is no ‘rape culture’ in schools
Education’s ‘#MeToo moment’ is not a scandal – it’s a moral panic over teenage sex."
https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/03/29/there-is-no-rape-culture-in-schools/
“It’s too soon to say what exactly the long-term impact of the current debate is going to have, but it’s likely to contribute to the huge changes in young male sexuality that have been happening for over a decade - without most people paying them much attention.
The primary change, at its most basic level, is that young men seem to be having much less sex than at any point in recent history. The statistics are actually quite shocking when you start to think about what they mean for an entire generation.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/family/life/todays-boys-young-men-arent-obsessed-sex-terrified/
It will be interesting to see if this eventually feeds through into marriage and births stats.0 -
I know ol' Lozza thought there were too many brown faces in 1917 but he seems to have over compensated in the other direction.
https://twitter.com/TimCWrites/status/1376868311665889289?s=200 -
Bearing in mind Keir Starmer took Labour from 20 points behind to ahead and now only slightly behind, if the Tories cock up literally anything he'll be in the lead again.
He's done the best job he could have done, the complaints about him puzzle me1 -
The 30,000,000 vaccination success has been quite rightly heralded as personal victory for Boris Johnson. The 150,000 deaths reported but largely without comment..Andy_JS said:
We've been hearing/reading about the death figures every day for the last 12 months.Mexicanpete said:Little comment on here from what I can see (forgive me if I have missed it) on the day the ONS confirming 150,000 UK Covid deaths.
Move along, nothing to see.0 -
You've missed an "a" out.Andy_JS said:
Satire, surely?williamglenn said:Le Monde: Macron's aides say he has mastered epidemiology to the point that he no longer necessarily has to follow the advice of scientists.
https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2021/03/30/covid-19-emmanuel-macron-le-president-epidemiologiste_6074919_823448.html
Monsieur Macaron.0 -
Boris might get lucky because it is human nature to avert our faces from death and disaster.Mexicanpete said:
The 30,000,000 vaccination success has been quite rightly heralded as personal victory for Boris Johnson. The 150,000 deaths reported but largely without comment..Andy_JS said:
We've been hearing/reading about the death figures every day for the last 12 months.Mexicanpete said:Little comment on here from what I can see (forgive me if I have missed it) on the day the ONS confirming 150,000 UK Covid deaths.
Move along, nothing to see.
The sun is out, the vaccines are working, an end to lockdown (forever?) is finally in sight. The guy who goes around shouting BUT WHAT ABOUT ALL THE CORPSES?!? is not going to be popular, even if he has a good point1 -
The last three polls show two 8-point leads, and a 10-point lead today. In what fantasy land is that 'only slightly behind'?CorrectHorseBattery said:Bearing in mind Keir Starmer took Labour from 20 points behind to ahead and now only slightly behind, if the Tories cock up literally anything he'll be in the lead again.
He's done the best job he could have done, the complaints about him puzzle me2 -
Was this supposed to have been published on April 1st ?
https://twitter.com/CNBCnow/status/13765925730835701890 -
Why should Labour strive to have someone good in charge when they can have someone average?CorrectHorseBattery said:Bearing in mind Keir Starmer took Labour from 20 points behind to ahead and now only slightly behind, if the Tories cock up literally anything he'll be in the lead again.
He's done the best job he could have done, the complaints about him puzzle me
10 points is more than slightly behind albeit one poll.1 -
"Ein Volt, ein Fahrer!"Nigelb said:Was this supposed to have been published on April 1st ?
7 -
I'd not seen this chart before.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=41..429&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=new_cases_per_million&Metric=Tests&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=GBR~DEU~FRA~ITA~ESP
This shows how from a slow start the UK has worked wonders in terms of testing. From May last year other than two very short periods of time we have tested more by population than any of out other big European neighbours. With the recent surge in testing we now do over 3 times more than any of them. This is a massive of achievement of the so called waste of money Test & Trace system.
It also shows why Europe without the scale of testing we have, 3x fewer vaccinations and cases surging have a tough few months ahead. They had the warning from the UK and did not act. In some cases they are still not acting. It is very sad.
3 -
But two polls have the lead at 2%. We can all be selective.BluestBlue said:
The last three polls show two 8-point leads, and a 10-point lead today. In what fantasy land is that 'only slightly behind'?CorrectHorseBattery said:Bearing in mind Keir Starmer took Labour from 20 points behind to ahead and now only slightly behind, if the Tories cock up literally anything he'll be in the lead again.
He's done the best job he could have done, the complaints about him puzzle me3 -
There’s something mawkish, too, on focusing on arbitrary milestones that we knew were coming. I mean what does one say? “150,000 is terrible”. Yet we know it’s terrible.Leon said:
Boris might get lucky because it is human nature to avert our faces from death and disaster.Mexicanpete said:
The 30,000,000 vaccination success has been quite rightly heralded as personal victory for Boris Johnson. The 150,000 deaths reported but largely without comment..Andy_JS said:
We've been hearing/reading about the death figures every day for the last 12 months.Mexicanpete said:Little comment on here from what I can see (forgive me if I have missed it) on the day the ONS confirming 150,000 UK Covid deaths.
Move along, nothing to see.
The sun is out, the vaccines are working, an end to lockdown (forever?) is finally in sight. The guy who goes around shouting BUT WHAT ABOUT ALL THE CORPSES?!? is not going to be popular, even if he has a good point0 -
"Voltswagen" implies you will get an electric shock if you take the driver seat. It's an Onion headlineNigelb said:Was this supposed to have been published on April 1st ?
https://twitter.com/CNBCnow/status/13765925730835701890 -
I don't recall any physical bullying in any of the schools I went to. 2 years in an RAF comprehensive (1970-72), and 5 years in a suburban (state) Grammar school (1972-77). In the latter, I don't recall any fights, let alone bullying. And while there were groups who were friendlier with each other than with others, there weren't even cliques of the type you see in Hollywood depictions of high school.Nigelb said:
8 - 10 stretches for our lot.Mexicanpete said:
Aged 14 I transferred to a rural Grammar School, bullying was rife, although I managed to sidestep that myself, although it was a key reason I hated the place. I suspect there was a homo-erotic element to some of the bullying, but by and large it was based on the victim's social standing or size.Nigelb said:
In the mid 80s, several years after I left my school, three former teachers were convicted of sexual abuse and imprisoned - after having been quietly asked to leave the school and going on to commit further abuse at the next one.Daveyboy1961 said:
In my Staffordshire Grammar school of the 70s (all boys), bullying was rife as well. I don't remember any sexual assault, though I do remember the homophobic attitude which permeated the games sessions. I don't remember any aggression or homophobic attitudes from the teachers mind. In fact the older you got the more working the attitudes and relationships became.Floater said:
And in my London grammar in the 70's.Fairliered said:
As it was in mine, a highly self-regarding predominantly middle class Hampshire grammar school.squareroot2 said:
Bullying was rife in my school in the 60'sOldKingCole said:Good morning everybody. Another sunny day in prospect.
O/t again, but maybe inspired by today's news and recollections how many males here can recall occasions from their schooldays where they did things which might be considered, in a different time, as 'abuse'?
2 of my sons suffered some pretty bad bullying at times
On the positive side, youngest has Aspergers and he never really suffered at school from bullying from the other children.
Is it possible kids are more accepting of differences these days or perhaps he was just lucky.
His treatment by the teaching establishment on the other hand ......
The argument that it's OK because it's no different than it was in my day cuts no ice with me.
I don't recall bullying at my suburban comp, although I suspect it happened, although doubt it was endemic. Although we did have a teacher who spent 15 months in Winston Green for his relationship with a 15 year old girl.
In the RAF school, certainly, there were a number of fights (both male and female) establishing the pecking order, but not many, and this was probably a product of the military tour system where ⅓ of the class left and a new ⅓ was added each school year and so there was an annual need for everyone to find out where they fit in. But I was always the tallest and biggest throughout school (6' by the time I was 11), which got me into a couple of fights with guys who wanted to prove they were tough but which might also explain why I did not see bullying.0 -
A fair, if somewhat depressing point of reality.Leon said:
Boris might get lucky because it is human nature to avert our faces from death and disaster.Mexicanpete said:
The 30,000,000 vaccination success has been quite rightly heralded as personal victory for Boris Johnson. The 150,000 deaths reported but largely without comment..Andy_JS said:
We've been hearing/reading about the death figures every day for the last 12 months.Mexicanpete said:Little comment on here from what I can see (forgive me if I have missed it) on the day the ONS confirming 150,000 UK Covid deaths.
Move along, nothing to see.
The sun is out, the vaccines are working, an end to lockdown (forever?) is finally in sight. The guy who goes around shouting BUT WHAT ABOUT ALL THE CORPSES?!? is not going to be popular, even if he has a good point0 -
Nice of him to spend time thinking about whether young women are getting enough though. It's easy for older men to just drift off into their silo.Theuniondivvie said:
Obliging young lassies telling old letches what they want to hear?Nigelb said:
Isn't there a question of selection bias in that analysis ?Leon said:
This story absolutely chimes with what young female friends tell me. Young men are asexual. Neuter. Very polite but sometimes lacking virility. This means: frustrated young womenMattW said:
I remember being painfully immature and naive.Selebian said:
Anyone remember pursuing sex at 18 to find a serious girlfriend to marry and have kids with? Was I unusually shallow as an 18 year old?tlg86 said:
If the joy of sex is disappearing for young men, so too for a lot of them, is the point of sex. Russell, 18, says bleakly: “In my Dad’s day, you probably pursued sex if you’re straight to find a serious girlfriend you eventually might marry and have kids with. We can’t think like that. We don’t have the means to move out, let alone start a grown-up life. It makes it all – dating, sex, finding The One – all seem a bit pointless.”Sandpit said:
In totally unrelated news:CursingStone said:
It's all a bit Bonfire of the Vanities. Safe to attack 'perpetuators', with no one willing to back them up for transgressions that are orders of magnitude lower than in other areas with more 'complicated' issues.Andy_JS said:"Joanna Williams
There is no ‘rape culture’ in schools
Education’s ‘#MeToo moment’ is not a scandal – it’s a moral panic over teenage sex."
https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/03/29/there-is-no-rape-culture-in-schools/
“It’s too soon to say what exactly the long-term impact of the current debate is going to have, but it’s likely to contribute to the huge changes in young male sexuality that have been happening for over a decade - without most people paying them much attention.
The primary change, at its most basic level, is that young men seem to be having much less sex than at any point in recent history. The statistics are actually quite shocking when you start to think about what they mean for an entire generation.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/family/life/todays-boys-young-men-arent-obsessed-sex-terrified/
It will be interesting to see if this eventually feeds through into marriage and births stats.1 -
"Snow days" in the old sense are going to be a casualty of Covid: we will now all be expected to set or even run lessons remotely if we can't get into school.turbotubbs said:
With interesting knock on effects on snow days... (teachers can't travel to get to the schools as they live too far away)Fysics_Teacher said:
In many schools the recommendation given to new teachers is "don't live in the catchment area". The reason is to avoid bumping into pupils or parents outside of work. I live within walking distance of school and while I haven't had many problems there is at least one pub I no longer go to after having heard "hello Sir!" a few too many times as I made my way to the bar...MattW said:
There will be some interesting actions about what "rights" you have to live distant from work.Sandpit said:
Yes, that’s the big unknown. Will companies allow enough time away from the office that a daily commute isn’t required.Gallowgate said:
Except realistically a majority will still be required to commute to central London some of the time and therefore will still need to live within commuting range.Sandpit said:
Something seismic, like huge numbers of white-collar employees no longer commuting daily to central London?Slackbladder said:
The SE is over saturated with demand. It would take something seismic to really knock house prices here.tlg86 said:
They didn't fall around Woking!DecrepiterJohnL said:
Prices did fall after the global financial crisis but have since resumed their climb.tlg86 said:
The point is that prices really ought to have fallen considerably off the back of 2008. They haven't.Philip_Thompson said:
The house price rise happened before not since though. It happened on Brown's tenure.tlg86 said:
Oh dear, I suspect I've started that argument again!MaxPB said:
Or make the landlords sell up so that young people are having their lives leeched away by the parasites.Fishing said:
... or maybe we'll finally build enough houses for the young as well as the old, which would be my preference.tlg86 said:
If the joy of sex is disappearing for young men, so too for a lot of them, is the point of sex. Russell, 18, says bleakly: “In my Dad’s day, you probably pursued sex if you’re straight to find a serious girlfriend you eventually might marry and have kids with. We can’t think like that. We don’t have the means to move out, let alone start a grown-up life. It makes it all – dating, sex, finding The One – all seem a bit pointless.”Sandpit said:
In totally unrelated news:CursingStone said:
It's all a bit Bonfire of the Vanities. Safe to attack 'perpetuators', with no one willing to back them up for transgressions that are orders of magnitude lower than in other areas with more 'complicated' issues.Andy_JS said:"Joanna Williams
There is no ‘rape culture’ in schools
Education’s ‘#MeToo moment’ is not a scandal – it’s a moral panic over teenage sex."
https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/03/29/there-is-no-rape-culture-in-schools/
“It’s too soon to say what exactly the long-term impact of the current debate is going to have, but it’s likely to contribute to the huge changes in young male sexuality that have been happening for over a decade - without most people paying them much attention.
The primary change, at its most basic level, is that young men seem to be having much less sex than at any point in recent history. The statistics are actually quite shocking when you start to think about what they mean for an entire generation.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/family/life/todays-boys-young-men-arent-obsessed-sex-terrified/
It will be interesting to see if this eventually feeds through into marriage and births stats.
I tend to agree with Max on this. Perhaps it is about supply of housing, but I honestly can't see it being fixed if it might lead to a fall in house prices.
To all of those on here praising Brown for "saving the world", fine. But what's happened since has been an unmitigated disaster and all politicians from all political parties as well as the media have contributed to it.
If I had to work two days a week in London, for example, I could live two hours away by train (that’s as far as Manchester, Leeds or Bath), buy one return train ticket and spend one night a week in a cheap London hotel.
Expect plenty of office space to be repurposed as cheap no-frills hotels in the City of London, that’s a great business model for someone.
If I need to be in the office three days a week, that’s the worst of all worlds as I’m still buying a full season ticket so need to live much closer to London.
If it’s one week a month, I can live pretty much anywhere.
When it snowed here a couple of years ago the schools closed because it was the *teachers* who could not get in, as too many were living eg over the border in slightly hilly bit of Derbyshire.
Of course also the interesting case of BA staff living in the Caribbean and commuting in to Heathrow on jockey-seats on flights.0 -
I take a charitable interest in their welfare, it is truekinabalu said:
Nice of him to spend time thinking about whether young women are getting enough though. It's easy for older men to just drift off into their silo.Theuniondivvie said:
Obliging young lassies telling old letches what they want to hear?Nigelb said:
Isn't there a question of selection bias in that analysis ?Leon said:
This story absolutely chimes with what young female friends tell me. Young men are asexual. Neuter. Very polite but sometimes lacking virility. This means: frustrated young womenMattW said:
I remember being painfully immature and naive.Selebian said:
Anyone remember pursuing sex at 18 to find a serious girlfriend to marry and have kids with? Was I unusually shallow as an 18 year old?tlg86 said:
If the joy of sex is disappearing for young men, so too for a lot of them, is the point of sex. Russell, 18, says bleakly: “In my Dad’s day, you probably pursued sex if you’re straight to find a serious girlfriend you eventually might marry and have kids with. We can’t think like that. We don’t have the means to move out, let alone start a grown-up life. It makes it all – dating, sex, finding The One – all seem a bit pointless.”Sandpit said:
In totally unrelated news:CursingStone said:
It's all a bit Bonfire of the Vanities. Safe to attack 'perpetuators', with no one willing to back them up for transgressions that are orders of magnitude lower than in other areas with more 'complicated' issues.Andy_JS said:"Joanna Williams
There is no ‘rape culture’ in schools
Education’s ‘#MeToo moment’ is not a scandal – it’s a moral panic over teenage sex."
https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/03/29/there-is-no-rape-culture-in-schools/
“It’s too soon to say what exactly the long-term impact of the current debate is going to have, but it’s likely to contribute to the huge changes in young male sexuality that have been happening for over a decade - without most people paying them much attention.
The primary change, at its most basic level, is that young men seem to be having much less sex than at any point in recent history. The statistics are actually quite shocking when you start to think about what they mean for an entire generation.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/family/life/todays-boys-young-men-arent-obsessed-sex-terrified/
It will be interesting to see if this eventually feeds through into marriage and births stats.0 -
-
It's what's protruding from the silo that I'm worried about.kinabalu said:
Nice of him to spend time thinking about whether young women are getting enough though. It's easy for older men to just drift off into their silo.Theuniondivvie said:
Obliging young lassies telling old letches what they want to hear?Nigelb said:
Isn't there a question of selection bias in that analysis ?Leon said:
This story absolutely chimes with what young female friends tell me. Young men are asexual. Neuter. Very polite but sometimes lacking virility. This means: frustrated young womenMattW said:
I remember being painfully immature and naive.Selebian said:
Anyone remember pursuing sex at 18 to find a serious girlfriend to marry and have kids with? Was I unusually shallow as an 18 year old?tlg86 said:
If the joy of sex is disappearing for young men, so too for a lot of them, is the point of sex. Russell, 18, says bleakly: “In my Dad’s day, you probably pursued sex if you’re straight to find a serious girlfriend you eventually might marry and have kids with. We can’t think like that. We don’t have the means to move out, let alone start a grown-up life. It makes it all – dating, sex, finding The One – all seem a bit pointless.”Sandpit said:
In totally unrelated news:CursingStone said:
It's all a bit Bonfire of the Vanities. Safe to attack 'perpetuators', with no one willing to back them up for transgressions that are orders of magnitude lower than in other areas with more 'complicated' issues.Andy_JS said:"Joanna Williams
There is no ‘rape culture’ in schools
Education’s ‘#MeToo moment’ is not a scandal – it’s a moral panic over teenage sex."
https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/03/29/there-is-no-rape-culture-in-schools/
“It’s too soon to say what exactly the long-term impact of the current debate is going to have, but it’s likely to contribute to the huge changes in young male sexuality that have been happening for over a decade - without most people paying them much attention.
The primary change, at its most basic level, is that young men seem to be having much less sex than at any point in recent history. The statistics are actually quite shocking when you start to think about what they mean for an entire generation.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/family/life/todays-boys-young-men-arent-obsessed-sex-terrified/
It will be interesting to see if this eventually feeds through into marriage and births stats.1 -
Covid hoaxers already having fun with this
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1376863445048569859?s=201 -
Yep a mini-me list party is a hell of a way to game the Scottish electoral system,malcolmg said:Example of potential impact of ALBA on election.
THIS IS WHAT WOULD HAVE HAPPENED IN 2016 IF SNP LIST VOTES WERE FOR ALBA!
So to put it simply instead of there being FOUR SNP LIST MSP’s there would have been 33 ALBA pro Indy MSP’s.
Most important of all, take a look at the Unionists. Instead of there being 24 Tories, there would have only been 12.
Likewise, instead of 21 Labour there would have been only 11.
The Liberals would have lost both their list seats and been reduced to zero
The Greens would have lost all five of their lists seats.
So an overall INCREASE of 24 pro Indy MSP’s
An overall DECREASE of 24 unionist MSP’s
And the best thing is there is no way anyone can accuse either party of it being a stitch up.1 -
Partisan bickering over pointless cherry-picked midterm polls is PB at its most crashingly dull. Are otherwise intellectual posters like Correct Horse and Bluest as boringly party political IRL?MikeSmithson said:
But two polls have the lead at 2%. We can all be selective.BluestBlue said:
The last three polls show two 8-point leads, and a 10-point lead today. In what fantasy land is that 'only slightly behind'?CorrectHorseBattery said:Bearing in mind Keir Starmer took Labour from 20 points behind to ahead and now only slightly behind, if the Tories cock up literally anything he'll be in the lead again.
He's done the best job he could have done, the complaints about him puzzle me0 -
You have to give your mates time to escape. Pre-warning does just that when the ban is instant rather than 30 hours later (as the last lockdown in Paris was handled).williamglenn said:The French interior minister pre-announces that they will implement controls from Thursday to prevent people from regions with tighter restrictions from leaving for Easter...
https://twitter.com/Mediavenir/status/13768680569750405120 -
As well they might. There’s been far too much jumping to conclusions and fearmongering about. Both are deeply counterproductive in the end, as they simply offer seeds of evidence to covid deniers and antivaxers.Leon said:Covid hoaxers already having fun with this
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1376863445048569859?s=200 -
And will address the nation some time in the next 15 days about an action you should be taking this week.Leon said:
ALERT: the government is soon going to do something which will be quite confusing to add to the half hearted confusing things we are also thinking of doing, or are already sort of doing, but do not worry, the President has read every book in the world and is now a scientific geniuswilliamglenn said:The French PM pre-announces that they will implement controls from Thursday to prevent people from regions with tighter restrictions from leaving for Easter...
https://twitter.com/Mediavenir/status/13768680569750405120 -
Although we do have some big elections in a little over a week. So quite important.Anabobazina said:
Partisan bickering over pointless cherry-picked midterm polls is PB at its most crashingly dull. Are otherwise intellectual posters like Correct Horse and Bluest as boringly party political IRL?MikeSmithson said:
But two polls have the lead at 2%. We can all be selective.BluestBlue said:
The last three polls show two 8-point leads, and a 10-point lead today. In what fantasy land is that 'only slightly behind'?CorrectHorseBattery said:Bearing in mind Keir Starmer took Labour from 20 points behind to ahead and now only slightly behind, if the Tories cock up literally anything he'll be in the lead again.
He's done the best job he could have done, the complaints about him puzzle me1 -
I didn't really get the Brittas meme until now. And it still doesn't work for 95% of people who have no idea who or what a Brittas is. But this is pure Brittas
https://twitter.com/PaulWilliamsLAB/status/1376859446861762560?s=201 -
Indeed. For example, in prematurely calling the end of a vaccine bounce when all three subsequent polls show the Tory lead increasing.MikeSmithson said:
But two polls have the lead at 2%. We can all be selective.BluestBlue said:
The last three polls show two 8-point leads, and a 10-point lead today. In what fantasy land is that 'only slightly behind'?CorrectHorseBattery said:Bearing in mind Keir Starmer took Labour from 20 points behind to ahead and now only slightly behind, if the Tories cock up literally anything he'll be in the lead again.
He's done the best job he could have done, the complaints about him puzzle me2 -
-
It would not surprise me if it were true; the stampede to electric is real no OEM wants to be outflanked. If you go to the BMW UK website it only shows the BEV models, you have to dig around to find the legacy fossil burners. The interior config options on the new M4 Competition are very cool.Nigelb said:Was this supposed to have been published on April 1st ?
https://twitter.com/CNBCnow/status/13765925730835701890 -
We were speculating yesterday that Alba might become the 'Indy, but no EU' party. This is another straw in that wind. Former leader Jim Sillars is strongly inclined that way too - perhaps he'll lend Salmond his support.Scott_xP said:1 -
A few days ago the education minister said that keeping the schools open was "l'exception française" and boasted that the English are looking at them and thinking they are doing something extraordinary.TimT said:
And will address the nation some time in the next 15 days about an action you should be taking this week.Leon said:
ALERT: the government is soon going to do something which will be quite confusing to add to the half hearted confusing things we are also thinking of doing, or are already sort of doing, but do not worry, the President has read every book in the world and is now a scientific geniuswilliamglenn said:The French PM pre-announces that they will implement controls from Thursday to prevent people from regions with tighter restrictions from leaving for Easter...
https://twitter.com/Mediavenir/status/1376868056975040512
https://twitter.com/BFMTV/status/13743702055566090350 -
I'm not aware of any.Mexicanpete said:
Although we do have some big elections in a little over a week. So quite important.Anabobazina said:
Partisan bickering over pointless cherry-picked midterm polls is PB at its most crashingly dull. Are otherwise intellectual posters like Correct Horse and Bluest as boringly party political IRL?MikeSmithson said:
But two polls have the lead at 2%. We can all be selective.BluestBlue said:
The last three polls show two 8-point leads, and a 10-point lead today. In what fantasy land is that 'only slightly behind'?CorrectHorseBattery said:Bearing in mind Keir Starmer took Labour from 20 points behind to ahead and now only slightly behind, if the Tories cock up literally anything he'll be in the lead again.
He's done the best job he could have done, the complaints about him puzzle me
There's the local elections in about six weeks, by which time we will have endured scores more pointless polls and dreary bickering from the usual partisans on here.1 -
I still can't decide if this new party is fiendishly clever or calamitously schismatic. The general rule is that vicious splits are bad - and this one is toxic. Personal. SexualLuckyguy1983 said:
We were speculating yesterday that Alba might become the 'Indy, but no EU' party. This is another straw in that wind. Former leader Jim Sillars is strongly inclined that way too - perhaps he'll lend Salmond his support.Scott_xP said:
However, Salmond is a wily old bastard0 -
Scott_xP said:
This Alba lark could yet turn out to be a masterstroke for indy – Alba mops up the anti-EU, non-woke nationalist vote...0 -
Fortunately we know that would never happen on here.............MikeSmithson said:
But two polls have the lead at 2%. We can all be selective.BluestBlue said:
The last three polls show two 8-point leads, and a 10-point lead today. In what fantasy land is that 'only slightly behind'?CorrectHorseBattery said:Bearing in mind Keir Starmer took Labour from 20 points behind to ahead and now only slightly behind, if the Tories cock up literally anything he'll be in the lead again.
He's done the best job he could have done, the complaints about him puzzle me1 -
You need to hope it isn't a vaccine bounce. Because just like the real thing that will wear off. There will need to be a booster and it's hard to see what that might be.BluestBlue said:
Indeed. For example, in prematurely calling the end of a vaccine bounce when all three subsequent polls show the Tory lead increasing.MikeSmithson said:
But two polls have the lead at 2%. We can all be selective.BluestBlue said:
The last three polls show two 8-point leads, and a 10-point lead today. In what fantasy land is that 'only slightly behind'?CorrectHorseBattery said:Bearing in mind Keir Starmer took Labour from 20 points behind to ahead and now only slightly behind, if the Tories cock up literally anything he'll be in the lead again.
He's done the best job he could have done, the complaints about him puzzle me2 -
You mean like the header on Saturday?Anabobazina said:
Partisan bickering over pointless cherry-picked midterm polls is PB at its most crashingly dull. Are otherwise intellectual posters like Correct Horse and Bluest as boringly party political IRL?MikeSmithson said:
But two polls have the lead at 2%. We can all be selective.BluestBlue said:
The last three polls show two 8-point leads, and a 10-point lead today. In what fantasy land is that 'only slightly behind'?CorrectHorseBattery said:Bearing in mind Keir Starmer took Labour from 20 points behind to ahead and now only slightly behind, if the Tories cock up literally anything he'll be in the lead again.
He's done the best job he could have done, the complaints about him puzzle me1 -
The package kinda fits the Scottish system (I mean, I don't profess to understand the Scottish voting system, but from the little I do know, this package will potentially help gain indy seats)Leon said:
I still can't decide if this new party is fiendishly clever or calamitously schismatic. The general rule is that vicious splits are bad - and this one is toxic. Personal. SexualLuckyguy1983 said:
We were speculating yesterday that Alba might become the 'Indy, but no EU' party. This is another straw in that wind. Former leader Jim Sillars is strongly inclined that way too - perhaps he'll lend Salmond his support.Scott_xP said:
However, Salmond is a wily old bastard0 -
Or it splits the indy cause right down the middle, and leads to terrible in-fighting - especially when Boris refuses indyref2, and the two indy parties argue fiercely about what to do nextAnabobazina said:Scott_xP said:
This Alba lark could yet turn out to be a masterstroke for indy – Alba mops up the anti-EU, non-woke nationalist vote...
Could go either way1 -
I suspect it's going to give independence a super majority of seats (at the very least a decent majority).Leon said:
I still can't decide if this new party is fiendishly clever or calamitously schismatic. The general rule is that vicious splits are bad - and this one is toxic. Personal. SexualLuckyguy1983 said:
We were speculating yesterday that Alba might become the 'Indy, but no EU' party. This is another straw in that wind. Former leader Jim Sillars is strongly inclined that way too - perhaps he'll lend Salmond his support.Scott_xP said:
However, Salmond is a wily old bastard
Then it's going to be months of watching the 2 parties tear each other apart as the SNP doesn't move quick enough and Salmond annoys Sturgeon.0 -
I meant in just over a month. It must be due to the clocks going forward. My mistake.Anabobazina said:
I'm not aware of any.Mexicanpete said:
Although we do have some big elections in a little over a week. So quite important.Anabobazina said:
Partisan bickering over pointless cherry-picked midterm polls is PB at its most crashingly dull. Are otherwise intellectual posters like Correct Horse and Bluest as boringly party political IRL?MikeSmithson said:
But two polls have the lead at 2%. We can all be selective.BluestBlue said:
The last three polls show two 8-point leads, and a 10-point lead today. In what fantasy land is that 'only slightly behind'?CorrectHorseBattery said:Bearing in mind Keir Starmer took Labour from 20 points behind to ahead and now only slightly behind, if the Tories cock up literally anything he'll be in the lead again.
He's done the best job he could have done, the complaints about him puzzle me
There's the local elections in about six weeks, by which time we will have endured scores more pointless polls and dreary bickering from the usual partisans on here.2 -
How dumb are the SNP that they didn't think of establishing the National Scottish (List) Party in 2016 then?malcolmg said:Example of potential impact of ALBA on election.
THIS IS WHAT WOULD HAVE HAPPENED IN 2016 IF SNP LIST VOTES WERE FOR ALBA!
So to put it simply instead of there being FOUR SNP LIST MSP’s there would have been 33 ALBA pro Indy MSP’s.
Most important of all, take a look at the Unionists. Instead of there being 24 Tories, there would have only been 12.
Likewise, instead of 21 Labour there would have been only 11.
The Liberals would have lost both their list seats and been reduced to zero
The Greens would have lost all five of their lists seats.
So an overall INCREASE of 24 pro Indy MSP’s
An overall DECREASE of 24 unionist MSP’s
And why did you (presumably) vote for such a pack of morons?0 -
I don't see why it can't be both. Choice in politics is never a bad thing. And if the positions on the EU do end up differing, it will do indy supporters here no harm to actually think about what they want from an Indy Scotland, rather than thinking of it as a sort of rapture wherein normal life just sort of stops.Leon said:
I still can't decide if this new party is fiendishly clever or calamitously schismatic. The general rule is that vicious splits are bad - and this one is toxic. Personal. SexualLuckyguy1983 said:
We were speculating yesterday that Alba might become the 'Indy, but no EU' party. This is another straw in that wind. Former leader Jim Sillars is strongly inclined that way too - perhaps he'll lend Salmond his support.Scott_xP said:
However, Salmond is a wily old bastard1 -
Most comparable Countries to the UK will end up having a similar or worse Covid experience to the UK, but Boris will always be able to demonstrate that he got the UK vaccinated much quicker than these Countries and people will thank him for that.Mexicanpete said:
A fair, if somewhat depressing point of reality.Leon said:
Boris might get lucky because it is human nature to avert our faces from death and disaster.Mexicanpete said:
The 30,000,000 vaccination success has been quite rightly heralded as personal victory for Boris Johnson. The 150,000 deaths reported but largely without comment..Andy_JS said:
We've been hearing/reading about the death figures every day for the last 12 months.Mexicanpete said:Little comment on here from what I can see (forgive me if I have missed it) on the day the ONS confirming 150,000 UK Covid deaths.
Move along, nothing to see.
The sun is out, the vaccines are working, an end to lockdown (forever?) is finally in sight. The guy who goes around shouting BUT WHAT ABOUT ALL THE CORPSES?!? is not going to be popular, even if he has a good point0 -
But as we all know, it doesn't matter because Boris will rightly refuse any IndyRef2 because Scotland already voted against independence in a once in a generation vote in 2014, right @HYUFD ?Anabobazina said:Scott_xP said:
This Alba lark could yet turn out to be a masterstroke for indy – Alba mops up the anti-EU, non-woke nationalist vote...0 -
No worries, I'm often guilty of fast-forwarding time myself at the moment, but my trigger is the closure of pubs...Mexicanpete said:
I meant in just over a month. It must be due to the clocks going forward. My mistake.Anabobazina said:
I'm not aware of any.Mexicanpete said:
Although we do have some big elections in a little over a week. So quite important.Anabobazina said:
Partisan bickering over pointless cherry-picked midterm polls is PB at its most crashingly dull. Are otherwise intellectual posters like Correct Horse and Bluest as boringly party political IRL?MikeSmithson said:
But two polls have the lead at 2%. We can all be selective.BluestBlue said:
The last three polls show two 8-point leads, and a 10-point lead today. In what fantasy land is that 'only slightly behind'?CorrectHorseBattery said:Bearing in mind Keir Starmer took Labour from 20 points behind to ahead and now only slightly behind, if the Tories cock up literally anything he'll be in the lead again.
He's done the best job he could have done, the complaints about him puzzle me
There's the local elections in about six weeks, by which time we will have endured scores more pointless polls and dreary bickering from the usual partisans on here.0 -
Excellent point. The vagueness over the EU has to end, for the good of Scotland, if it does one day decide to go indyLuckyguy1983 said:
I don't see why it can't be both. Choice in politics is never a bad thing. And if the positions on the EU do end up differing, it will do indy supporters here no harm to actually think about what they want from an Indy Scotland, rather than thinking of it as a sort of rapture wherein normal life just sort of stops.Leon said:
I still can't decide if this new party is fiendishly clever or calamitously schismatic. The general rule is that vicious splits are bad - and this one is toxic. Personal. SexualLuckyguy1983 said:
We were speculating yesterday that Alba might become the 'Indy, but no EU' party. This is another straw in that wind. Former leader Jim Sillars is strongly inclined that way too - perhaps he'll lend Salmond his support.Scott_xP said:
However, Salmond is a wily old bastard
They got away with eliding it in 2014 - "oh we'll have continued membership, or just rejoin the week after, whatever, it's trivial" - they won't be able to do that again, nor should they.0 -
It's a high-risk, high-reward strategy for sure. Be interesting to see how it plays out.Leon said:
Or it splits the indy cause right down the middle, and leads to terrible in-fighting - especially when Boris refuses indyref2, and the two indy parties argue fiercely about what to do nextAnabobazina said:Scott_xP said:
This Alba lark could yet turn out to be a masterstroke for indy – Alba mops up the anti-EU, non-woke nationalist vote...
Could go either way
0 -
This data is two weeks old, so will be even better now.
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/13768187894346874900 -
Or result in a referendum because of a super majority that indy loses because of the in-fighting. Or they win. It certainly does add a level of complexity and a new range of potential outcomes.Leon said:
Or it splits the indy cause right down the middle, and leads to terrible in-fighting - especially when Boris refuses indyref2, and the two indy parties argue fiercely about what to do nextAnabobazina said:Scott_xP said:
This Alba lark could yet turn out to be a masterstroke for indy – Alba mops up the anti-EU, non-woke nationalist vote...
Could go either way0 -
Quite possibly, yes. I didn't read it.felix said:
You mean like the header on Saturday?Anabobazina said:
Partisan bickering over pointless cherry-picked midterm polls is PB at its most crashingly dull. Are otherwise intellectual posters like Correct Horse and Bluest as boringly party political IRL?MikeSmithson said:
But two polls have the lead at 2%. We can all be selective.BluestBlue said:
The last three polls show two 8-point leads, and a 10-point lead today. In what fantasy land is that 'only slightly behind'?CorrectHorseBattery said:Bearing in mind Keir Starmer took Labour from 20 points behind to ahead and now only slightly behind, if the Tories cock up literally anything he'll be in the lead again.
He's done the best job he could have done, the complaints about him puzzle me0 -
This makes it even more certain Boris will refuse a vote, by the way, because the open goal is right in front of him: refuse a vote, then split the indy cause wide open, the Salmondites v Sturgeonites, who already hate each other, and have a completely different approach to achieving indyGallowgate said:
But as we all know, it doesn't matter because Boris will rightly refuse any IndyRef2 because Scotland already voted against independence in a once in a generation vote in 2014, right @HYUFD ?Anabobazina said:Scott_xP said:
This Alba lark could yet turn out to be a masterstroke for indy – Alba mops up the anti-EU, non-woke nationalist vote...0 -
They are already split. Refusing a vote against a mandate for a 2nd ref will risk uniting Indy supporters against a common enemy.Leon said:
This makes it even more certain Boris will refuse a vote, by the way, because the open goal is right in front of him: refuse a vote, then split the indy cause wide open, the Salmondites v Sturgeonites, who already hate each other, and have a completely different approach to achieving indyGallowgate said:
But as we all know, it doesn't matter because Boris will rightly refuse any IndyRef2 because Scotland already voted against independence in a once in a generation vote in 2014, right @HYUFD ?Anabobazina said:Scott_xP said:
This Alba lark could yet turn out to be a masterstroke for indy – Alba mops up the anti-EU, non-woke nationalist vote...0 -
Gunboats on the Tweed. Armed infantry in Kielder Forest. Cannon on the Cheviot.Gallowgate said:
But as we all know, it doesn't matter because Boris will rightly refuse any IndyRef2 because Scotland already voted against independence in a once in a generation vote in 2014, right @HYUFD ?Anabobazina said:Scott_xP said:
This Alba lark could yet turn out to be a masterstroke for indy – Alba mops up the anti-EU, non-woke nationalist vote...0 -
The only referendum they would get under Boris is a wildcat one (unless they go to the courts and win, which is not impossible, though highly unlikely)TimT said:
Or result in a referendum because of a super majority that indy loses because of the in-fighting. Or they win. It certainly does add a level of complexity and a new range of potential outcomes.Leon said:
Or it splits the indy cause right down the middle, and leads to terrible in-fighting - especially when Boris refuses indyref2, and the two indy parties argue fiercely about what to do nextAnabobazina said:Scott_xP said:
This Alba lark could yet turn out to be a masterstroke for indy – Alba mops up the anti-EU, non-woke nationalist vote...
Could go either way
Salmond will press for this. Sturgeon will resist. It will be entertaining, if nothing else0 -
Calvary charge at Gretna?Anabobazina said:
Gunboats on the Tweed. Armed infantry in Kielder Forest. Cannon on the Cheviot.Gallowgate said:
But as we all know, it doesn't matter because Boris will rightly refuse any IndyRef2 because Scotland already voted against independence in a once in a generation vote in 2014, right @HYUFD ?Anabobazina said:Scott_xP said:
This Alba lark could yet turn out to be a masterstroke for indy – Alba mops up the anti-EU, non-woke nationalist vote...1 -
The game is to ask them to suggest what independence will look like via a royal commission. And watch them fight and argue over absolutely everything.Gallowgate said:
They are already split. Refusing a vote against a mandate for a 2nd ref will risk uniting Indy supporters against a common enemy.Leon said:
This makes it even more certain Boris will refuse a vote, by the way, because the open goal is right in front of him: refuse a vote, then split the indy cause wide open, the Salmondites v Sturgeonites, who already hate each other, and have a completely different approach to achieving indyGallowgate said:
But as we all know, it doesn't matter because Boris will rightly refuse any IndyRef2 because Scotland already voted against independence in a once in a generation vote in 2014, right @HYUFD ?Anabobazina said:Scott_xP said:
This Alba lark could yet turn out to be a masterstroke for indy – Alba mops up the anti-EU, non-woke nationalist vote...1 -
Let's start off with the now-solidifying folk legend that Brexit allowed us to vaccinate faster and return to freedom ahead of our 'friends' in the EU, add in a year of blistering economic growth and general merriment as normal life gets back into the swing, and then the picture you're left with is that of a government that has enjoyed a substantial period of success versus a grey nullity with little to say, and less time left to turn that impression around.kinabalu said:
You need to hope it isn't a vaccine bounce. Because just like the real thing that will wear off. There will need to be a booster and it's hard to see what that might be.BluestBlue said:
Indeed. For example, in prematurely calling the end of a vaccine bounce when all three subsequent polls show the Tory lead increasing.MikeSmithson said:
But two polls have the lead at 2%. We can all be selective.BluestBlue said:
The last three polls show two 8-point leads, and a 10-point lead today. In what fantasy land is that 'only slightly behind'?CorrectHorseBattery said:Bearing in mind Keir Starmer took Labour from 20 points behind to ahead and now only slightly behind, if the Tories cock up literally anything he'll be in the lead again.
He's done the best job he could have done, the complaints about him puzzle me0 -
I know President Le Pen would be a bad thing. But can someone with a better grasp of French politics than me explain why she would be worse than the current incumbent?Gallowgate said:
Jeez. The "Saviour of Liberalism" is actually just Le Trump.williamglenn said:Le Monde: Macron's aides say he has mastered epidemiology to the point that he no longer necessarily has to follow the advice of scientists.
https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2021/03/30/covid-19-emmanuel-macron-le-president-epidemiologiste_6074919_823448.html1 -
Catalunya shows what might happen in Scotland in May
A coalition of different secessionist parties got a decent majority on a low turnout.
https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2021/02/how-pro-independence-parties-triumphed-catalan-election0 -
And Novavax I think seems strangely less keen to sign a contract with the EU. Can't think why...CarlottaVance said:
2 -
Surely Indy + EEA will be a viable compromise for both parties?eek said:
The game is to ask them to suggest what independence will look like via a royal commission. And watch them fight and argue over absolutely everything.Gallowgate said:
They are already split. Refusing a vote against a mandate for a 2nd ref will risk uniting Indy supporters against a common enemy.Leon said:
This makes it even more certain Boris will refuse a vote, by the way, because the open goal is right in front of him: refuse a vote, then split the indy cause wide open, the Salmondites v Sturgeonites, who already hate each other, and have a completely different approach to achieving indyGallowgate said:
But as we all know, it doesn't matter because Boris will rightly refuse any IndyRef2 because Scotland already voted against independence in a once in a generation vote in 2014, right @HYUFD ?Anabobazina said:Scott_xP said:
This Alba lark could yet turn out to be a masterstroke for indy – Alba mops up the anti-EU, non-woke nationalist vote...0 -
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Oh! I thought you were going all HYUFD on us and predicting that the Queen would come out against it and HMG would arrest, try and convict the ringleaders. To the Tower with them!Leon said:Catalunya shows what might happen in Scotland in May
A coalition of different secessionist parties got a hefty majority on a low turnout.
https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2021/02/how-pro-independence-parties-triumphed-catalan-election0 -
Humans stop being able to understand numbers after a certain point.Leon said:
Boris might get lucky because it is human nature to avert our faces from death and disaster.Mexicanpete said:
The 30,000,000 vaccination success has been quite rightly heralded as personal victory for Boris Johnson. The 150,000 deaths reported but largely without comment..Andy_JS said:
We've been hearing/reading about the death figures every day for the last 12 months.Mexicanpete said:Little comment on here from what I can see (forgive me if I have missed it) on the day the ONS confirming 150,000 UK Covid deaths.
Move along, nothing to see.
The sun is out, the vaccines are working, an end to lockdown (forever?) is finally in sight. The guy who goes around shouting BUT WHAT ABOUT ALL THE CORPSES?!? is not going to be popular, even if he has a good point
1,000 deaths from covid sounded disastrous.
100,000 is a statistic. It's such a big number we can't contextualise it. How many would we expect? What are other countries doing? Are they reporting in the same way? So we rely on our own personal experience, which is, in most cases, that the only people we know who have died of covid are people who sadly weren't long for this world anyway.
That's why big numbers don't really change people's minds like you might expect them to.0 -
Hmm. Slowing, but not awfulwilliamglenn said:0 -
That’s certainly true, the English are thinking he’s doing something extraordinary.williamglenn said:
A few days ago the education minister said that keeping the schools open was "l'exception française" and boasted that the English are looking at them and thinking they are doing something extraordinary.TimT said:
And will address the nation some time in the next 15 days about an action you should be taking this week.Leon said:
ALERT: the government is soon going to do something which will be quite confusing to add to the half hearted confusing things we are also thinking of doing, or are already sort of doing, but do not worry, the President has read every book in the world and is now a scientific geniuswilliamglenn said:The French PM pre-announces that they will implement controls from Thursday to prevent people from regions with tighter restrictions from leaving for Easter...
https://twitter.com/Mediavenir/status/1376868056975040512
https://twitter.com/BFMTV/status/13743702055566090352 -
The genesis of Alba also requires an answer from the Unionist parties in terms of innovation. At the moment we're seeing the Tories leaning into Unionism because it's more popular than Toryism, but not benefiting the Unionist cause a great deal in so doing, you're seeing Labour support Unionism but somewhat half-heartedly, scared of upsetting people and not making the emotional case, you have the Lib Dems nowhere (although promisingly mining a new civil liberties furrow), then you have George Galloway's new party that suffers a little from being George Galloway's new party. Both the Tories and Labour now have better leaders, so there's some improvement there, but there's a long way to go to get voters fired up about either option.Leon said:
Excellent point. The vagueness over the EU has to end, for the good of Scotland, if it does one day decide to go indyLuckyguy1983 said:
I don't see why it can't be both. Choice in politics is never a bad thing. And if the positions on the EU do end up differing, it will do indy supporters here no harm to actually think about what they want from an Indy Scotland, rather than thinking of it as a sort of rapture wherein normal life just sort of stops.Leon said:
I still can't decide if this new party is fiendishly clever or calamitously schismatic. The general rule is that vicious splits are bad - and this one is toxic. Personal. SexualLuckyguy1983 said:
We were speculating yesterday that Alba might become the 'Indy, but no EU' party. This is another straw in that wind. Former leader Jim Sillars is strongly inclined that way too - perhaps he'll lend Salmond his support.Scott_xP said:
However, Salmond is a wily old bastard
They got away with eliding it in 2014 - "oh we'll have continued membership, or just rejoin the week after, whatever, it's trivial" - they won't be able to do that again, nor should they.0 -
TouchéBluestBlue said:
Indeed. For example, in prematurely calling the end of a vaccine bounce when all three subsequent polls show the Tory lead increasing.MikeSmithson said:
But two polls have the lead at 2%. We can all be selective.BluestBlue said:
The last three polls show two 8-point leads, and a 10-point lead today. In what fantasy land is that 'only slightly behind'?CorrectHorseBattery said:Bearing in mind Keir Starmer took Labour from 20 points behind to ahead and now only slightly behind, if the Tories cock up literally anything he'll be in the lead again.
He's done the best job he could have done, the complaints about him puzzle me
1 -
I can't claim to fulfil your criteria, but I assume it's that the incumbent is merely mostly useless, whereas Le Pen would actively poison the political debate simply by being in power.Animal_pb said:
I know President Le Pen would be a bad thing. But can someone with a better grasp of French politics than me explain why she would be worse than the current incumbent?Gallowgate said:
Jeez. The "Saviour of Liberalism" is actually just Le Trump.williamglenn said:Le Monde: Macron's aides say he has mastered epidemiology to the point that he no longer necessarily has to follow the advice of scientists.
https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2021/03/30/covid-19-emmanuel-macron-le-president-epidemiologiste_6074919_823448.html0 -
Do we have a market on a second Scottish Parliament election this year?Leon said:
This makes it even more certain Boris will refuse a vote, by the way, because the open goal is right in front of him: refuse a vote, then split the indy cause wide open, the Salmondites v Sturgeonites, who already hate each other, and have a completely different approach to achieving indyGallowgate said:
But as we all know, it doesn't matter because Boris will rightly refuse any IndyRef2 because Scotland already voted against independence in a once in a generation vote in 2014, right @HYUFD ?Anabobazina said:Scott_xP said:
This Alba lark could yet turn out to be a masterstroke for indy – Alba mops up the anti-EU, non-woke nationalist vote...
On those numbers, there’s no majority to pass anything except a request for a second referendum. Probably not even the Budget.0 -
Thats pretty good for a SundayLeon said:
Hmm. Slowing, but not awfulwilliamglenn said:1 -
That's the split, right there. They are going to fight like rats in a sporran after MayCarlottaVance said:2 -
Just recognising she's not a real world leader?Floater said:2 -
This is why we can't have nice things quicker than planned.
https://twitter.com/BBCNottingham/status/1376839766151413761
I expect this why the government and the voters expect Covid-19 numbers to rise.1 -
Yes, indeed, unionists have to get pro-active. Imaginative new ideas not just defensive nervousnessLuckyguy1983 said:
The genesis of Alba also requires an answer from the Unionist parties in terms of innovation. At the moment we're seeing the Tories leaning into Unionism because it's more popular than Toryism, but not benefiting the Unionist cause a great deal in so doing, you're seeing Labour support Unionism but somewhat half-heartedly, scared of upsetting people and not making the emotional case, you have the Lib Dems nowhere (although promisingly mining a new civil liberties furrow), then you have George Galloway's new party that suffers a little from being George Galloway's new party. Both the Tories and Labour now have better leaders, so there's some improvement there, but there's a long way to go to get voters fired up about either option.Leon said:
Excellent point. The vagueness over the EU has to end, for the good of Scotland, if it does one day decide to go indyLuckyguy1983 said:
I don't see why it can't be both. Choice in politics is never a bad thing. And if the positions on the EU do end up differing, it will do indy supporters here no harm to actually think about what they want from an Indy Scotland, rather than thinking of it as a sort of rapture wherein normal life just sort of stops.Leon said:
I still can't decide if this new party is fiendishly clever or calamitously schismatic. The general rule is that vicious splits are bad - and this one is toxic. Personal. SexualLuckyguy1983 said:
We were speculating yesterday that Alba might become the 'Indy, but no EU' party. This is another straw in that wind. Former leader Jim Sillars is strongly inclined that way too - perhaps he'll lend Salmond his support.Scott_xP said:
However, Salmond is a wily old bastard
They got away with eliding it in 2014 - "oh we'll have continued membership, or just rejoin the week after, whatever, it's trivial" - they won't be able to do that again, nor should they.
And now I am away to drink wine in the sunlit park
Later0 -
Big drop in deaths reported by NHS England today. 40, compared to 98 last Tuesday. Hopefully now seen the last of three-figure-death days.3
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For fecks sake
https://twitter.com/CeFaanKim/status/1376698713582796804
2 big arsed men just stand by and watch a woman in her 60's take a beating
The security guard just closes the door on it all0 -
Oh, I've no doubt VW are going all in on electric (& are probably one of the few which will succeed), but I think the headline might have been intended as a bit of lighthearted marketing* as opposed to rebranding.Dura_Ace said:
It would not surprise me if it were true; the stampede to electric is real no OEM wants to be outflanked. If you go to the BMW UK website it only shows the BEV models, you have to dig around to find the legacy fossil burners. The interior config options on the new M4 Competition are very cool.Nigelb said:Was this supposed to have been published on April 1st ?
https://twitter.com/CNBCnow/status/1376592573083570189
*not very German, but VW in the US is different.0 -
On Good Friday?Gallowgate said:
Calvary charge at Gretna?Anabobazina said:
Gunboats on the Tweed. Armed infantry in Kielder Forest. Cannon on the Cheviot.Gallowgate said:
But as we all know, it doesn't matter because Boris will rightly refuse any IndyRef2 because Scotland already voted against independence in a once in a generation vote in 2014, right @HYUFD ?Anabobazina said:Scott_xP said:
This Alba lark could yet turn out to be a masterstroke for indy – Alba mops up the anti-EU, non-woke nationalist vote...
1
This discussion has been closed.