politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What’s keeping YES hopes alive in the #IndyRef – the pollin
Why I'm not going all-in betting on NO in #IndyRef
Look at difference between final polls & result Holyrood 2011 pic.twitter.com/yX6YZ2Y9M6
Comments
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Och aye the first!
[it's easier when TSE doesn't cheat]0 -
Hoo Noo Brown Murray0
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Will Braveheart be on the Telly on September 12th ?0
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What were yougov showing 3 months before the 2011 elections and what was the actual result?
*Innocent Face*0 -
Did the polling companies look into their failure? What was the reason? Have they adapted their polls since?0
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You will rue the day accusing me of cheating.Anorak said:Och aye the first!
[it's easier when TSE doesn't cheat]
I'll have you know when I come first it's all down to me because I'm quick [ooh err accidental innuendo klaxon alert]
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So far as I can work out...TOPPING said:
So here's the thing. It has long been in my mind to assess "top nation".dyedwoolie said:British/English sport - dead or dying
Take 10 team sports and via some complex weighting system determine which nation is best overall. Some debate would need to be had regarding what constitutes a team sport. So for example the US would I imagine score well at Baseball and Ba
My initial list is:
Football
Rugby
Cricket
Baseball
Basketball
Hockey (Field)
Hockey (Ice)
Netball
Waterpolo
Polo
Football - Spain (Yes they flopped at the World cup but they're recent World/Euro Cup victories and still ranked #1).
Rugby Union - NZ (League Australia)
Cricket - Australia
Baseball - USA
Basketball - USA
Hockey (Field) - Australia
Hockey (Ice) - Canada Sweden
Netball - Australia
Waterpolo - Serbia
Polo - Argentina
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fpt also
Yes, Australia would appear to have a shout but then England would be (at various times) ok in the cricket and rugby also plus would place (eg. in the polo) so I don't think it would be as simple as to count up the No 1s - perhaps a moving average..?0 -
Braveheart is the most historically innacurate film in cinematic history.Pulpstar said:Will Braveheart be on the Telly on September 12th ?
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A substantial shift is certainly possible, although one data point is not sufficient to demonstrate that any shift would necessarily be in favour of the Yes side.
I don't think it's likely, though. The fundamental flaws of the Yes case are just so enormous; concerns over job losses, the currency, the EU, pensions, the financial services sector, and all those other important questions which seem to have come as a complete surprise to Alex Salmond, are not going to go away.0 -
An election electing a government/parliament is a totally different kettle of fish to a referendum on Independence .
The choice is so clear and stark that most minds have been made up months if not years ago and will not change bar some unforeseen major event .
Yes has been toast for months and will remain so in the next 3 months .0 -
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The UK is also the undisputed world champion at World Wars and Empire BuildingTOPPING said:fpt also
Yes, Australia would appear to have a shout but then England would be (at various times) ok in the cricket and rugby also plus would place (eg. in the polo) so I don't think it would be as simple as to count up the No 1s - perhaps a moving average..?
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Innocent_Abroad said:
And in other news a Scottish Labour candidate (who I think is female but also appears to have a moustache, probably in fulfilment of some quota or other) has quit after misbehaving.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/labour-candidate-resigns-over-hitler-youth-tweet-1-3462378
In a earlier FB (I think) conversation dug up on Wings, the Angus Labour lady got a wee bit aerated about foreign residents having a vote in the referendum when "born" [but, I assume, non-resident] "Scots with Scottish property and interests do not". Never thought I'd see a Labour activist apparently favouring the return of the property qualification for voting!!dyedwoolie said:
Voting proportionate to property owned would seem a fair solution to this gerrymandering. One vote for the block of flats, one vote for the townhouse.SouthamObserver said:
I'd love to see a constituency map as I am struggling to work out how any part of Gospel Oak gets into H&WG. But on the basis that it does, I am not sure that London behaves entirely the same way as other parts of the country in terms of property price and voting correlation. I also think that sometimes it's easy to forget the extent of the council estates that exist even in the most affluent areas. Chalk Farm, Gospel Oak, Highgate and even EdM's Dartmouth Park are prime examples. A five bedroomed, £3 million town house might equate to two Tory voters. A small block of council flats essentially taking up the same space might give you 10 Labour voters. You could find both on the same block.rcs1000 said:
The nicer part of Gospel Oak is part of the constituency! As Camden, Belsize Park, Chalk Farm, Shoreditch, Clapham, etc have become more expensive, it's become one of the classic places for 'first job post University' students to move to. While these are probably more left-leaning than 40 year old hedge fund managers in Highgate, they are less left-leaning than the people they are displacing.SouthamObserver said:Agreed on Highgate. Highgate New Town, which is solidly Labour, is not part of H&WG. I don't think Gospel Oak is part of the constituency, but that is most definitely Labour as well - there is a huge council estate slap bang in the middle of it.
And thank you to OGH for highlighting this issue of Yougov weighting - I'll be interested to see whether any of the other pollsters respond.0 -
''The UK is also the undisputed world champion at World Wars and Empire Building.''
Us white people are very good at playing divide and conquer, apparently.0 -
FPT
OK, Smarmy. You have earned a stay of execution.Smarmeron said:@AveryLP
"The government is exploring emergency measures to kick-start house-building, amid an expected decrease in new build this year, BBC Newsnight has learned."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28114463
Dwelling starts for England only from 2010 to end of last fiscal year are:DCLG [LiveTable208.xlsx]
All recent indicators (e.g. today's Markit Construction PMI) are suggesting Private Sector residential building construction is accelerating. It should be noted that of the 133,650 starts last year over 81% were private enterprise builds.
Total Permanent Dwellings Started
(All Dwellings - Private, Housing
Association & Local Authority)
=================================
England
---------------------------------
2010-11 111,150
2011-12 109,570
2012-13 R 101,670
2013-14 P 133,650
Residential construction remained the best performing area of activity during June. The latest rise in housing activity was the steepest since January.
The outlook over a twelve month timescale also looks strong:
Volumes of new work received by UK construction companies increased sharply in June and at the fastest pace since January.
I don't doubt the existence of an internal DCLG document nor that the BBC have got hold of a copy. What I question is the 4% shortfall projection and, even in the unlikely event that it were it true, its political significance.
I suspect it is no more than a mid-summer jolly boating weather exhortation to:
Swing swing together,
With your bodies between your knees
The problem with housebuilding doesn't lie in the private sector which is building at record levels when measured as a proportion to housing sales transactions and will continue to increase output as liquidity and volume in the housing market fully recovers.
The problem is in finding a business model and source of finance for housing association and local authority builds of 'low cost' dwellings.
The Coalition has built more Local Authority dwellings in its first four years than Labour did in its 13 years of government between 1997-2010 and average annual Housing Association builds are also higher (21k vs 19k), but the numbers for both governments fall far short of long term need.0 -
Something missing? Crap?TheScreamingEagles said:
Braveheart is the most historically film in cinematic history.Pulpstar said:Will Braveheart be on the Telly on September 12th ?
Well, it's not the Yes side who keep on about it.
Seriously, though, I've always thought it was simply a modern version of those verse epics and ballads by the likes of Blind Harry - a bit reminiscent of the Arthurian story with not just Arthur's whatever but Wallace's Cave etc all over the place.
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TOPPING said:
fpt also
Yes, Australia would appear to have a shout but then England would be (at various times) ok in the cricket and rugby also plus would place (eg. in the polo) so I don't think it would be as simple as to count up the No 1s - perhaps a moving average..?
England/GBR -> Australia. Or the comparison that really matters...TOPPING said:
So here's the thing. It has long been in my mind to assess "top nation".dyedwoolie said:British/English sport - dead or dying
Take 10 team sports and via some complex weighting system determine which nation is best overall. Some debate would need to be had regarding what constitutes a team sport. So for example the US would I imagine score well at Baseball and Ba
My initial list is:
Football
Rugby
Cricket
Baseball
Basketball
Hockey (Field)
Hockey (Ice)
Netball
Waterpolo
Polo
World rankings for England / Australia... (Men's sports except Netball)
Football - England 10th; Australia 62
Rugby Union - Aus 3rd; England 4th (League Aus 1; England 3)
Cricket - Australia 1st; England 5th (Both Test and ODI, T20 isn't "real" cricket" !)
Baseball - Aus 14th; (GBR 24th)
Basketball - Aus 9th; England ~20th
Hockey (Field) - Australia 1st; England 5th
Hockey (Ice) - GBR 22; Aus 34
Netball - Australia 1st; England 3rd
Waterpolo - Aus 9th Eng (GBR) 22nd
Polo - Eng 5th; Aus 7th
Tally as to who is ahead: Aus 7, Eng 3
Totals (Lower is better) Aus 141; England 122
Perhaps we truly are the jacks of all sports but masters of none ?
I suspect our FIFA world ranking might drop tbh...
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Excellent! (Both your research/effort and the results.)Pulpstar said:TOPPING said:fpt also
Yes, Australia would appear to have a shout but then England would be (at various times) ok in the cricket and rugby also plus would place (eg. in the polo) so I don't think it would be as simple as to count up the No 1s - perhaps a moving average..?
England/GBR -> Australia. Or the comparison that really matters...TOPPING said:
So here's the thing. It has long been in my mind to assess "top nation".dyedwoolie said:British/English sport - dead or dying
Take 10 team sports and via some complex weighting system determine which nation is best overall. Some debate would need to be had regarding what constitutes a team sport. So for example the US would I imagine score well at Baseball and Ba
My initial list is:
Football
Rugby
Cricket
Baseball
Basketball
Hockey (Field)
Hockey (Ice)
Netball
Waterpolo
Polo
World rankings for England / Australia... (Men's sports except Netball)
Football - England 10th; Australia 62
Rugby Union - Aus 3rd; England 4th (League Aus 1; England 3)
Cricket - Australia 1st; England 5th (Both Test and ODI, T20 isn't "real" cricket" !)
Baseball - Aus 14th; (GBR 24th)
Basketball - Aus 9th; England ~20th
Hockey (Field) - Australia 1st; England 5th
Hockey (Ice) - GBR 22; Aus 34
Netball - Australia 1st; England 3rd
Waterpolo - Aus 9th Eng (GBR) 22nd
Polo - Eng 5th; Aus 7th
Tally as to who is ahead: Aus 7, Eng 3
Totals (Lower is better) Aus 141; England 122
Perhaps we truly are the jacks of all sports but masters of none ?
I suspect our FIFA world ranking might drop tbh...
V interesting indeed! We rock! But yes, not master of anything atm.0 -
Have you seen the polling changes when a prospective Conservative Gov't is put to the Scots ?MarkSenior said:An election electing a government/parliament is a totally different kettle of fish to a referendum on Independence .
The choice is so clear and stark that most minds have been made up months if not years ago and will not change bar some unforeseen major event .
Yes has been toast for months and will remain so in the next 3 months .0 -
Nah, that accolade goes to The PatriotTheScreamingEagles said:
Braveheart is the most historically innacurate film in cinematic history.Pulpstar said:Will Braveheart be on the Telly on September 12th ?
From wiki...
The film takes place during the real-life events of the Southern theater of the American Revolutionary War but attracted controversy over its fictional portrayal of historical figures and atrocities. Professor Mark Glancy, teacher of film history at Queen Mary, University of London has said: "It's horrendously inaccurate and attributes crimes committed by the Nazis in the 1940s to the British in the 1770s."0 -
Thanks to the Pitcairn islands, the sun still does not set on (what is left of) the empire:TheScreamingEagles said:
The UK is also the undisputed world champion at World Wars and Empire BuildingTOPPING said:fpt also
Yes, Australia would appear to have a shout but then England would be (at various times) ok in the cricket and rugby also plus would place (eg. in the polo) so I don't think it would be as simple as to count up the No 1s - perhaps a moving average..?
https://what-if.xkcd.com/48/0 -
A grumpy, green ogre is the latest celebrity to chip in on the Scottish Independence debate. Sort of.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jul/02/mike-myers-asked-would-shrek-vote-for-an-independent-scotland
In an interview on Radio 4's Today programme to plug his directorial debut, comedian Mike Myers revealed what he thought about an independent Scotland – as well as what Shrek the ogre thinks.
I always thought Shrek was Eck's style guru. Have you noticed he wears tartan trews...0 -
Nassar is supposed to have remarked that 'the sun never sets on the British Empire because god doesn't trust the British in the dark.....'RobD said:
Thanks to the Pitcairn islands, the sun still does not set on (what is left of) the empire:TheScreamingEagles said:
The UK is also the undisputed world champion at World Wars and Empire BuildingTOPPING said:fpt also
Yes, Australia would appear to have a shout but then England would be (at various times) ok in the cricket and rugby also plus would place (eg. in the polo) so I don't think it would be as simple as to count up the No 1s - perhaps a moving average..?
https://what-if.xkcd.com/48/
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Ironically our home is one of the cloudiest places on Earth!CarlottaVance said:
Nassar is supposed to have remarked that 'the sun never sets on the British Empire because god doesn't trust the British in the dark.....'RobD said:
Thanks to the Pitcairn islands, the sun still does not set on (what is left of) the empire:TheScreamingEagles said:
The UK is also the undisputed world champion at World Wars and Empire BuildingTOPPING said:fpt also
Yes, Australia would appear to have a shout but then England would be (at various times) ok in the cricket and rugby also plus would place (eg. in the polo) so I don't think it would be as simple as to count up the No 1s - perhaps a moving average..?
https://what-if.xkcd.com/48/0 -
65% of British people say the appointment of Jean-Claude Juncker as EU president was out of David Cameron’s hands – and most people think he was right to vote against him, even if it was unsuccessful
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/07/02/camerons-reputation-unharmed-juncker-defeat/0 -
Innacurate.Carnyx said:
Something missing? Crap?TheScreamingEagles said:
Braveheart is the most historically film in cinematic history.Pulpstar said:Will Braveheart be on the Telly on September 12th ?
Well, it's not the Yes side who keep on about it.
Seriously, though, I've always thought it was simply a modern version of those verse epics and ballads by the likes of Blind Harry - a bit reminiscent of the Arthurian story with not just Arthur's whatever but Wallace's Cave etc all over the place.
Written and directed by a drunk anti Semite who hates the English.
I was shocked that in The Passion of the Christ, Jesus McChrist wasn't crucified by the bastard English.
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There's a connection between the two films. Can't quite put my finger on it.Charles said:
Nah, that accolade goes to The PatriotTheScreamingEagles said:
Braveheart is the most historically innacurate film in cinematic history.Pulpstar said:Will Braveheart be on the Telly on September 12th ?
From wiki...
The film takes place during the real-life events of the Southern theater of the American Revolutionary War but attracted controversy over its fictional portrayal of historical figures and atrocities. Professor Mark Glancy, teacher of film history at Queen Mary, University of London has said: "It's horrendously inaccurate and attributes crimes committed by the Nazis in the 1940s to the British in the 1770s."0 -
Another inaccuracy in the film is Tarletons troops. These highly effective troops were recruited in Philidelphia and New York from Loyalist Americans.
http://madmonarchist.blogspot.co.uk/2009/12/monarchist-profile-banastre-tarleton.html?m=1
So who were the patriots?Charles said:
Nah, that accolade goes to The PatriotTheScreamingEagles said:
Braveheart is the most historically innacurate film in cinematic history.Pulpstar said:Will Braveheart be on the Telly on September 12th ?
From wiki...
The film takes place during the real-life events of the Southern theater of the American Revolutionary War but attracted controversy over its fictional portrayal of historical figures and atrocities. Professor Mark Glancy, teacher of film history at Queen Mary, University of London has said: "It's horrendously inaccurate and attributes crimes committed by the Nazis in the 1940s to the British in the 1770s."0 -
Will the useful Leicestershire fast bowler swing the Scottish ref?0
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Don't spoil it for wee Malkie. Along with Highlander he thinks it's a documentary.TheScreamingEagles said:
Braveheart is the most historically innacurate film in cinematic history.Pulpstar said:Will Braveheart be on the Telly on September 12th ?
Incidentally MalcolmG - I just want you to know that I feel the appropriate measure of sympathy with you over Scotland's failure today at Wmbldn.0 -
I bow to your filmic expertise in general, but in this very specific instance a little checking does tend to confirm my memory that Blind Harry was at least one of the sources, including the testimony of the scriptwriter himself (not the director, or so it seems). And BH is pretty dodgy history.TheScreamingEagles said:
Innacurate.Carnyx said:
Something missing? Crap?TheScreamingEagles said:
Braveheart is the most historically film in cinematic history.Pulpstar said:Will Braveheart be on the Telly on September 12th ?
Well, it's not the Yes side who keep on about it.
Seriously, though, I've always thought it was simply a modern version of those verse epics and ballads by the likes of Blind Harry - a bit reminiscent of the Arthurian story with not just Arthur's whatever but Wallace's Cave etc all over the place.
Written and directed by a drunk anti Semite who hates the English.
I was shocked that in The Passion of the Christ, Jesus McChrist wasn't crucified by the bastard English.0 -
Only World Wars? I think we also hold the record for 'Most Nations Warred Against'. There's also not many countries that have invaded Russia AND China. Great Britain, putting the 'B' into Belligerent.TheScreamingEagles said:
The UK is also the undisputed world champion at World Wars and Empire BuildingTOPPING said:fpt also
Yes, Australia would appear to have a shout but then England would be (at various times) ok in the cricket and rugby also plus would place (eg. in the polo) so I don't think it would be as simple as to count up the No 1s - perhaps a moving average..?
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Some real polling howlers there for the Holyrood 2011 vote. – have they since been tweaked?0
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Well, given that Cameron chose to heavily spin against him,and ensure that most of the British Press slavishly followed the PM's line, is that surprising?CarlottaVance said:65% of British people say the appointment of Jean-Claude Juncker as EU president was out of David Cameron’s hands – and most people think he was right to vote against him, even if it was unsuccessful
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/07/02/camerons-reputation-unharmed-juncker-defeat/
Cameron set up Juncker as "undesirable" with little or no evidence, purely so that he could have a fight, which he knew he'd lose, and thus portray himself as the "hero" battling against the massed baddies of Brussels.There was no principle involved, only a desire by Cameron to be seen as "doing something" about Europe in a pathetic attempt to get the Kippers back into the Tory fold!0 -
The ONS released its Economic Review this morning, which often provides interesting commentary based on a full range of the previous month's individual bulletins.
I highlight just one of its key points for the month, on the housing market:
Average UK house prices in April 2014 were around 6.5% above their pre-downturn peak, although much of this increase is concentrated in London. However, despite this recent rise, households continued to deleverage in Q1 2014. The stock of long term loans as a percentage of gross households’ disposable income has fallen from 133% in 2008 to 118% at the start of 2014.
It was rapid expansion and poor risk management in mortgage lending combined with rampant house price inflation in the early noughties which broke Gordon's promise of "no boom or bust".
One without the other is much less dangerous, and, with recent indicators that heat is being taken out of current house price inflation, the prospects for an extended period of low bank rate have increased.
It is Carney's policy to dampen house price rises through public warning, bank regulation and financial risk management leaving him free to use monetary policy solely to maintain low inflation, encourage high employment and support broader economic growth.
So far he is succeeding.0 -
Rofl - are you the only one who knows the 'truth'? Don't tell or the polls might turn against Cameron:))OldKingCole said:
Well, given that Cameron chose to heavily spin against him,and ensure that most of the British Press slavishly followed the PM's line, is that surprising?CarlottaVance said:65% of British people say the appointment of Jean-Claude Juncker as EU president was out of David Cameron’s hands – and most people think he was right to vote against him, even if it was unsuccessful
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/07/02/camerons-reputation-unharmed-juncker-defeat/
Cameron set up Juncker as "undesirable" with little or no evidence, purely so that he could have a fight, which he knew he'd lose, and thus portray himself as the "hero" battling against the massed baddies of Brussels.There was no principle involved, only a desire by Cameron to be seen as "doing something" about Europe in a pathetic attempt to get the Kippers back into the Tory fold!0 -
Rofl to you too! Read it in the lees of some Luxembourgish wine!felix said:
Rofl - are you the only one who knows the 'truth'? Don't tell or the polls might turn against Cameron:))OldKingCole said:
Well, given that Cameron chose to heavily spin against him,and ensure that most of the British Press slavishly followed the PM's line, is that surprising?CarlottaVance said:65% of British people say the appointment of Jean-Claude Juncker as EU president was out of David Cameron’s hands – and most people think he was right to vote against him, even if it was unsuccessful
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/07/02/camerons-reputation-unharmed-juncker-defeat/
Cameron set up Juncker as "undesirable" with little or no evidence, purely so that he could have a fight, which he knew he'd lose, and thus portray himself as the "hero" battling against the massed baddies of Brussels.There was no principle involved, only a desire by Cameron to be seen as "doing something" about Europe in a pathetic attempt to get the Kippers back into the Tory fold!
I don't THINK I'm the only one who reads it this way! Might be on this board I suppose!0 -
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If "Cameron set up Juncker as 'undesirable'" perhaps you can explain why Nick Clegg agreed with all of Mr Cameron's objections to him?OldKingCole said:
Rofl to you too! Read it in the lees of some Luxembourgish wine!felix said:
Rofl - are you the only one who knows the 'truth'? Don't tell or the polls might turn against Cameron:))OldKingCole said:
Well, given that Cameron chose to heavily spin against him,and ensure that most of the British Press slavishly followed the PM's line, is that surprising?CarlottaVance said:65% of British people say the appointment of Jean-Claude Juncker as EU president was out of David Cameron’s hands – and most people think he was right to vote against him, even if it was unsuccessful
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/07/02/camerons-reputation-unharmed-juncker-defeat/
Cameron set up Juncker as "undesirable" with little or no evidence, purely so that he could have a fight, which he knew he'd lose, and thus portray himself as the "hero" battling against the massed baddies of Brussels.There was no principle involved, only a desire by Cameron to be seen as "doing something" about Europe in a pathetic attempt to get the Kippers back into the Tory fold!
I don't THINK I'm the only one who reads it this way! Might be on this board I suppose!0 -
TBH, no. Surprised me somewhat, but just maybe NC is trying to keep onside with DC. Having said that, NC HAS met, and IIRC, worked with the man.SimonStClare said:
If "Cameron set up Juncker as 'undesirable' perhaps you can explain why Nick Clegg agreed with all of Mr Cameron's objections to him?OldKingCole said:
Rofl to you too! Read it in the lees of some Luxembourgish wine!felix said:
Rofl - are you the only one who knows the 'truth'? Don't tell or the polls might turn against Cameron:))OldKingCole said:
Well, given that Cameron chose to heavily spin against him,and ensure that most of the British Press slavishly followed the PM's line, is that surprising?CarlottaVance said:65% of British people say the appointment of Jean-Claude Juncker as EU president was out of David Cameron’s hands – and most people think he was right to vote against him, even if it was unsuccessful
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/07/02/camerons-reputation-unharmed-juncker-defeat/
Cameron set up Juncker as "undesirable" with little or no evidence, purely so that he could have a fight, which he knew he'd lose, and thus portray himself as the "hero" battling against the massed baddies of Brussels.There was no principle involved, only a desire by Cameron to be seen as "doing something" about Europe in a pathetic attempt to get the Kippers back into the Tory fold!
I don't THINK I'm the only one who reads it this way! Might be on this board I suppose!
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I think OKC had too much cognac for breakfast.SimonStClare said:
If "Cameron set up Juncker as 'undesirable' perhaps you can explain why Nick Clegg agreed with all of Mr Cameron's objections to him?OldKingCole said:
Rofl to you too! Read it in the lees of some Luxembourgish wine!felix said:
Rofl - are you the only one who knows the 'truth'? Don't tell or the polls might turn against Cameron:))OldKingCole said:
Well, given that Cameron chose to heavily spin against him,and ensure that most of the British Press slavishly followed the PM's line, is that surprising?CarlottaVance said:65% of British people say the appointment of Jean-Claude Juncker as EU president was out of David Cameron’s hands – and most people think he was right to vote against him, even if it was unsuccessful
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/07/02/camerons-reputation-unharmed-juncker-defeat/
Cameron set up Juncker as "undesirable" with little or no evidence, purely so that he could have a fight, which he knew he'd lose, and thus portray himself as the "hero" battling against the massed baddies of Brussels.There was no principle involved, only a desire by Cameron to be seen as "doing something" about Europe in a pathetic attempt to get the Kippers back into the Tory fold!
I don't THINK I'm the only one who reads it this way! Might be on this board I suppose!
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It's after 6pm - I shall be joining him shortly. ; )AveryLP said:
I think OKC had too much cognac for breakfast.SimonStClare said:
If "Cameron set up Juncker as 'undesirable' perhaps you can explain why Nick Clegg agreed with all of Mr Cameron's objections to him?OldKingCole said:
Rofl to you too! Read it in the lees of some Luxembourgish wine!felix said:
Rofl - are you the only one who knows the 'truth'? Don't tell or the polls might turn against Cameron:))OldKingCole said:
Well, given that Cameron chose to heavily spin against him,and ensure that most of the British Press slavishly followed the PM's line, is that surprising?CarlottaVance said:65% of British people say the appointment of Jean-Claude Juncker as EU president was out of David Cameron’s hands – and most people think he was right to vote against him, even if it was unsuccessful
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/07/02/camerons-reputation-unharmed-juncker-defeat/
Cameron set up Juncker as "undesirable" with little or no evidence, purely so that he could have a fight, which he knew he'd lose, and thus portray himself as the "hero" battling against the massed baddies of Brussels.There was no principle involved, only a desire by Cameron to be seen as "doing something" about Europe in a pathetic attempt to get the Kippers back into the Tory fold!
I don't THINK I'm the only one who reads it this way! Might be on this board I suppose!
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We were talking about Wales earlier, this piece of news will no doubt add to Labour's vote share:
"Around 400 jobs are to go at the Tata steelmaking plant in Port Talbot, the company has announced."
Why?
"The company spends £60m on electricity in Wales alone, and pays about 40% more for the electricity than competitors in continental Europe."
Good old Miliband's energy policy. Still we can hold our head up high in the international community and be proud that we are leading the way in saving the planet. Those 400 families will I am sure be grateful for being given the place of honour in the forefront of our battle against climate change. Life on the dole in South Wales will be warmed by the pride of the sacrifice they have made.
No spokesman for other European steel makers were available for comment mainly becuase they couldn't speak for laughing.0 -
Bacon sandwich while attaching cricket. No cognac. Good thought though! Might take some next time!SimonStClare said:
It's after 6pm - I shall be joining him shortly. ; )AveryLP said:
I think OKC had too much cognac for breakfast.SimonStClare said:
If "Cameron set up Juncker as 'undesirable' perhaps you can explain why Nick Clegg agreed with all of Mr Cameron's objections to him?OldKingCole said:
Rofl to you too! Read it in the lees of some Luxembourgish wine!felix said:
Rofl - are you the only one who knows the 'truth'? Don't tell or the polls might turn against Cameron:))OldKingCole said:
Well, given that Cameron chose to heavily spin against him,and ensure that most of the British Press slavishly followed the PM's line, is that surprising?CarlottaVance said:65% of British people say the appointment of Jean-Claude Juncker as EU president was out of David Cameron’s hands – and most people think he was right to vote against him, even if it was unsuccessful
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/07/02/camerons-reputation-unharmed-juncker-defeat/
Cameron set up Juncker as "undesirable" with little or no evidence, purely so that he could have a fight, which he knew he'd lose, and thus portray himself as the "hero" battling against the massed baddies of Brussels.There was no principle involved, only a desire by Cameron to be seen as "doing something" about Europe in a pathetic attempt to get the Kippers back into the Tory fold!
I don't THINK I'm the only one who reads it this way! Might be on this board I suppose!0 -
Wonder what % dont give a toss and what % know anything about Junker?CarlottaVance said:65% of British people say the appointment of Jean-Claude Juncker as EU president was out of David Cameron’s hands – and most people think he was right to vote against him, even if it was unsuccessful
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/07/02/camerons-reputation-unharmed-juncker-defeat/
Little Englanders and the right wing press get excited about this sort of thing0 -
I guess it's a good thing that Ed resisted the Tories' calls to go further with the Climate Change Act in 2008.HurstLlama said:We were talking about Wales earlier, this piece of news will no doubt add to Labour's vote share:
"Around 400 jobs are to go at the Tata steelmaking plant in Port Talbot, the company has announced."
Why?
"The company spends £60m on electricity in Wales alone, and pays about 40% more for the electricity than competitors in continental Europe."
Good old Miliband's energy policy. Still we can hold our head up high in the international community and be proud that we are leading the way in saving the planet. Those 400 families will I am sure be grateful for being given the place of honour in the forefront of our battle against climate change. Life on the dole in South Wales will be warmed by the pride of the sacrifice they have made.
No spokesman for other European steel makers were available for comment mainly becuase they couldn't speak for laughing.0 -
The 2011 elections were a different case, the SNP were still consistently ahead by the end of the campaign, Yes has led to lead a poll. They were also the incumbent government, not a movement asking to abandon 300 years of history since the Act of Union0
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Kyrgios wins 1st set vs Raonic and HenryG lands two winners out of three today - pity he wasn't around for the earlier stages of Wimbledon.
Thanks Henry.0 -
Sorry to hear Murray went out today, but his relatively early exit, coupled with England's in the World Cup, could be the best thing for the Union, ensuring no breakout of English or Scottish nationalism. There is also still the US Open, which he won before Wimbledon and would have less impact. Interestingly, his best performance this year was at the French Open, supposedly his weakest surface where he made the semis, in the other grand slam in Australia he also went out in the quarters0
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And Miliband got it completely wrong.....bigjohnowls said:
Wonder what % dont give a toss and what % know anything about Junker?CarlottaVance said:65% of British people say the appointment of Jean-Claude Juncker as EU president was out of David Cameron’s hands – and most people think he was right to vote against him, even if it was unsuccessful
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/07/02/camerons-reputation-unharmed-juncker-defeat/
Little Englanders and the right wing press get excited about this sort of thing
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But it was a good yarn all the same TSE, especially if you had had a few beers.TheScreamingEagles said:
Braveheart is the most historically innacurate film in cinematic history.Pulpstar said:Will Braveheart be on the Telly on September 12th ?
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So... voting 'No' - it's a pretty big thing. A fight against your tradition, a fight against everything passionate, a fight against who you are. But.. the right vote is a Scottish passionate vote for sense. The referendum gives all Scots the right to choose. From 2014 you'll be leading the Union rather than otherwise. This vote is a vote to be IN!
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Seriously when you think of the number of versions of Robin Hood, Ivanhoe , etc it is just pathetic that people whinge about it. I never get fed up of Robin Hood. The same whingers probably watch Die Hard etc multiple times and think they are real.Carnyx said:
Something missing? Crap?TheScreamingEagles said:
Braveheart is the most historically film in cinematic history.Pulpstar said:Will Braveheart be on the Telly on September 12th ?
Well, it's not the Yes side who keep on about it.
Seriously, though, I've always thought it was simply a modern version of those verse epics and ballads by the likes of Blind Harry - a bit reminiscent of the Arthurian story with not just Arthur's whatever but Wallace's Cave etc all over the place.0 -
You will find Murray lives in Surrey and plays for GB. The clout of the union helped him today.Bond_James_Bond said:
Don't spoil it for wee Malkie. Along with Highlander he thinks it's a documentary.TheScreamingEagles said:
Braveheart is the most historically innacurate film in cinematic history.Pulpstar said:Will Braveheart be on the Telly on September 12th ?
Incidentally MalcolmG - I just want you to know that I feel the appropriate measure of sympathy with you over Scotland's failure today at Wmbldn.
PS. One day hopefully I can give you the Malky.0 -
Balladry is history written (or sung by the defeated!malcolmg said:
Seriously when you think of the number of versions of Robin Hood, Ivanhoe , etc it is just pathetic that people whinge about it. I never get fed up of Robin Hood. The same whingers probably watch Die Hard etc multiple times and think they are real.Carnyx said:
Something missing? Crap?TheScreamingEagles said:
Braveheart is the most historically film in cinematic history.Pulpstar said:Will Braveheart be on the Telly on September 12th ?
Well, it's not the Yes side who keep on about it.
Seriously, though, I've always thought it was simply a modern version of those verse epics and ballads by the likes of Blind Harry - a bit reminiscent of the Arthurian story with not just Arthur's whatever but Wallace's Cave etc all over the place.0 -
Yes, but not in the right direction.SimonStClare said:Some real polling howlers there for the Holyrood 2011 vote. – have they since been tweaked?
0 -
JohnM Britain has invaded 9/10 nations at some point
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/history/9653497/British-have-invaded-nine-out-of-ten-countries-so-look-out-Luxembourg.html0 -
Shock and awe.Dennis Skinner has been voted off Labour's NEC.Whatever next?Will Gibraltar will be ceded to Spain?0
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Khazakstan? Is that the tenth?HYUFD said:JohnM Britain has invaded 9/10 nations at some point
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/history/9653497/British-have-invaded-nine-out-of-ten-countries-so-look-out-Luxembourg.html
0 -
OldKingCole And Sweden and Luxembourg surprisingly plus a few in north West Africa, the old French Empire and Guatemala0
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Charles (previous thread)
'I do hope they choose Chukka.
I can't imagine a more self-inflated empty suit.'
Could easily have substituted Obama for Chukka in 2008, or indeed Cameron in 2005!
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Evening MrG - you maybe right, but on that score we'll have to wait and see..! ; )malcolmg said:
Yes, but not in the right direction.SimonStClare said:Some real polling howlers there for the Holyrood 2011 vote. – have they since been tweaked?
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Doesn't sending troops into Germany via Luxembourg in WWII count? Can't believe that we haven't had troops there in one or other of the European wars.HYUFD said:OldKingCole And Sweden and Luxembourg surprisingly plus a few in north West Africa, the old French Empire and Guatemala
Guatemala; don't pirates count, either? Surely Drake or Raleigh pillaged a Spanish settlement there at some point?0 -
@HurstLamaHurstLlama said:We were talking about Wales earlier, this piece of news will no doubt add to Labour's vote share:
"Around 400 jobs are to go at the Tata steelmaking plant in Port Talbot, the company has announced."
Why?
"The company spends £60m on electricity in Wales alone, and pays about 40% more for the electricity than competitors in continental Europe."
Good old Miliband's energy policy. Still we can hold our head up high in the international community and be proud that we are leading the way in saving the planet. Those 400 families will I am sure be grateful for being given the place of honour in the forefront of our battle against climate change. Life on the dole in South Wales will be warmed by the pride of the sacrifice they have made.
No spokesman for other European steel makers were available for comment mainly becuase they couldn't speak for laughing.
The other reason is the huge business rates.
"Chief executive Karl Koehler said the changes were vital if the company was to remain competitive.
He pointed to the UK's high business rates and "uncompetitive" energy costs as factors in the decision."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-28104757
If costs remain to be so uncompetitive, it is highly likely that all steel-making will disappear from the UK and much of western Europe and we will have to source our requirements from Asia.0 -
colcanopete Skinner was also off in '98, back in '99 with Blair's backing0
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So no actual saving of the planet then? Just exporting jobs and prosperity. Isn't it wonderful that are politicians are so clever.Financier said:
@HurstLamaHurstLlama said:We were talking about Wales earlier, this piece of news will no doubt add to Labour's vote share:
"Around 400 jobs are to go at the Tata steelmaking plant in Port Talbot, the company has announced."
Why?
"The company spends £60m on electricity in Wales alone, and pays about 40% more for the electricity than competitors in continental Europe."
Good old Miliband's energy policy. Still we can hold our head up high in the international community and be proud that we are leading the way in saving the planet. Those 400 families will I am sure be grateful for being given the place of honour in the forefront of our battle against climate change. Life on the dole in South Wales will be warmed by the pride of the sacrifice they have made.
No spokesman for other European steel makers were available for comment mainly becuase they couldn't speak for laughing.
The other reason is the huge business rates.
"Chief executive Karl Koehler said the changes were vital if the company was to remain competitive.
He pointed to the UK's high business rates and "uncompetitive" energy costs as factors in the decision."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-28104757
If costs remain to be so uncompetitive, it is highly likely that all steel-making will disappear from the UK and much of western Europe and we will have to source our requirements from Asia.0 -
OldKingCole Luxembourg small enough to skirt around, Drake was really the Caribbean, Guatemala in C America next to Mexico0
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Simon, very true, and only 11 weeks to go.SimonStClare said:
Evening MrG - you maybe right, but on that score we'll have to wait and see..! ; )malcolmg said:
Yes, but not in the right direction.SimonStClare said:Some real polling howlers there for the Holyrood 2011 vote. – have they since been tweaked?
0 -
Link?volcanopete said:Shock and awe.Dennis Skinner has been voted off Labour's NEC.Whatever next?Will Gibraltar will be ceded to Spain?
I remember the last time - he got lots of sympathy messages which he curtly waved away: "Nobody's died. Let's move on."
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Of course we are assuming there were no sneaky incursions into Guatemala during the long running dispute over territory pre and post Belizean independence in 1981. Britain had troops there until 2011 and still has a few advisers on the ground.HYUFD said:OldKingCole Luxembourg small enough to skirt around, Drake was really the Caribbean, Guatemala in C America next to Mexico
0 -
Did we not provide some support recently to the French in the Mali civil war?HYUFD said:OldKingCole And Sweden and Luxembourg surprisingly plus a few in north West Africa, the old French Empire and Guatemala
Great country, full of saucy mares
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It seems to me that Google are deliberately seeking to subvert the bonkers European Court 'right to rewrite history' ruling by the rather clever means of simply complying with it, and saying that they are:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28130581
0 -
And that overseas steelmaking will likely be more polluting too.HurstLlama said:
So no actual saving of the planet then? Just exporting jobs and prosperity. Isn't it wonderful that are politicians are so clever.Financier said:
@HurstLamaHurstLlama said:We were talking about Wales earlier, this piece of news will no doubt add to Labour's vote share:
"Around 400 jobs are to go at the Tata steelmaking plant in Port Talbot, the company has announced."
Why?
"The company spends £60m on electricity in Wales alone, and pays about 40% more for the electricity than competitors in continental Europe."
Good old Miliband's energy policy. Still we can hold our head up high in the international community and be proud that we are leading the way in saving the planet. Those 400 families will I am sure be grateful for being given the place of honour in the forefront of our battle against climate change. Life on the dole in South Wales will be warmed by the pride of the sacrifice they have made.
No spokesman for other European steel makers were available for comment mainly becuase they couldn't speak for laughing.
The other reason is the huge business rates.
"Chief executive Karl Koehler said the changes were vital if the company was to remain competitive.
He pointed to the UK's high business rates and "uncompetitive" energy costs as factors in the decision."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-28104757
If costs remain to be so uncompetitive, it is highly likely that all steel-making will disappear from the UK and much of western Europe and we will have to source our requirements from Asia.
Ed Davey and Ed Milliband, take a bow.
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Guatemala has an (admittedly short) Caribbean coastline. And as dyedwoolie rightly points out, there were all sorts of shenanigans over Belize.HYUFD said:OldKingCole Luxembourg small enough to skirt around, Drake was really the Caribbean, Guatemala in C America next to Mexico
0 -
That sounds dodgy, but it's probably more cock-up than conspiracy...AndyJS said:BBC - Dickens dossier has "gone missing".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-281255370 -
TBH, I seem to recall some relief in some quarters when he did die.GIN1138 said:
That sounds dodgy, but it's probably more cock-up than conspiracy...AndyJS said:BBC - Dickens dossier has "gone missing".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-281255370 -
So that makes him less of a Scot, than your chum Wings, Sean Connery and Stuart Dickson?malcolmg said:
You will find Murray lives in Surrey and plays for GB.Bond_James_Bond said:
Don't spoil it for wee Malkie. Along with Highlander he thinks it's a documentary.TheScreamingEagles said:
Braveheart is the most historically innacurate film in cinematic history.Pulpstar said:Will Braveheart be on the Telly on September 12th ?
Incidentally MalcolmG - I just want you to know that I feel the appropriate measure of sympathy with you over Scotland's failure today at Wmbldn.0 -
Grandiose Indeed, but hiring not the same as invading. dyedwoolie Suppose it depends how you define an invasion. OldKingCole Don't think Drake got that far0
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Yes, agreed. I'm certain British Troops have paid a visit to both Guatemala and Mali in living memory.HYUFD said:Grandiose Indeed, but hiring not the same as invading. dyedwoolie Suppose it depends how you define an invasion. OldKingCole Don't think Drake got that far
We are very good at it, it seems.
If the rest of the world just accepted British suzerainty it would make things much easier.
0 -
dyedwoolie GB had the greatest empire in the history of the world (The Mongol empire is also a contendor but was over a more concentrated area). I don't think we are going back, it left a strong legacy, but we are now firmly part of the global community of nations0
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Evening all
For me, this is far and away the most significant event of the day:
http://www.communitycare.co.uk/2014/07/01/getting-point-funding-unsustainable-want-meet-need-appropriately-adass-chief/
The consequences for Council adult social care from the Supreme Court ruling on Deprivation of Liberty Safeguards (DoLS) are and have been considerable. Whether we like it or not, the demands in the field of adult social care are increasing and even though the demographic time bomb of an elderly population has been recognised for thirty years, successive Governments have failed miserably to prepare.
One of the biggest national disgraces is our chronic inability to provide enough of our elderly with an adequate and dignified standard of life. At least this Government is starting to make people see the necessity for adequate and proper financial planning for retirement but it's too little and arguably too late.0 -
Reminds me of a certain Wes, Minister exchange:OldKingCole said:
TBH, I seem to recall some relief in some quarters when he did die.GIN1138 said:
That sounds dodgy, but it's probably more cock-up than conspiracy...AndyJS said:BBC - Dickens dossier has "gone missing".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28125537
James Hacker: [reads memo] This file contains the complete set of papers, except for a number of secret documents, a few others which are part of still active files, some correspondence lost in the floods of 1967...
James Hacker: Was 1967 a particularly bad winter?
Sir Humphrey Appleby: No, a marvellous winter. We lost no end of embarrassing files.0 -
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/industrial.cfmHurstLlama said:We were talking about Wales earlier, this piece of news will no doubt add to Labour's vote share:
"Around 400 jobs are to go at the Tata steelmaking plant in Port Talbot, the company has announced."
Why?
"The company spends £60m on electricity in Wales alone, and pays about 40% more for the electricity than competitors in continental Europe."
Good old Miliband's energy policy. Still we can hold our head up high in the international community and be proud that we are leading the way in saving the planet. Those 400 families will I am sure be grateful for being given the place of honour in the forefront of our battle against climate change. Life on the dole in South Wales will be warmed by the pride of the sacrifice they have made.
No spokesman for other European steel makers were available for comment mainly becuase they couldn't speak for laughing.
industrial sectors that use the most electricity according to that link
1) "The largest industrial sector consumer of delivered energy is the chemical industry"
2) "The second-largest user of energy in the world industrial sector is the iron and steel industry"
3) "The third-largest energy-consuming industry is nonmetallic minerals, which includes cement, glass, brick, and ceramics"
4) "Pulp and paper production"
5) "Production of nonferrous metals, which include aluminum, copper, lead, and zinc"
so i assume these will be the sectors wiped out by wind power?
It'd be funny if the recycled paper industry closes down over green leccy prices.
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stodge The Government did transfer some NHS funds to social care in the Budget, but agree more needed0
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The Guardian has something along the same lines:Richard_Nabavi said:It seems to me that Google are deliberately seeking to subvert the bonkers European Court 'right to rewrite history' ruling by the rather clever means of simply complying with it, and saying that they are:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28130581
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/02/eu-right-to-be-forgotten-guardian-google
Google now allows you to choose google.com at the bottom of its search page. Everyone should just make sure that they do that.
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Good evening, everyone.
The Caterham story has been fleshed out a bit: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/281296270 -
I miss the like button.Grandiose said:
Reminds me of a certain Wes, Minister exchange:OldKingCole said:
TBH, I seem to recall some relief in some quarters when he did die.GIN1138 said:
That sounds dodgy, but it's probably more cock-up than conspiracy...AndyJS said:BBC - Dickens dossier has "gone missing".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28125537
James Hacker: [reads memo] This file contains the complete set of papers, except for a number of secret documents, a few others which are part of still active files, some correspondence lost in the floods of 1967...
James Hacker: Was 1967 a particularly bad winter?
Sir Humphrey Appleby: No, a marvellous winter. We lost no end of embarrassing files.
It's amazing that over 30 years after it was written Yes Minister is still so eminently quotable
0 -
There's a surprise.AndyJS said:BBC - Dickens dossier has "gone missing".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28125537
Given that covering up for child-molesting MPs is standard practice it makes me wonder how many of the big children's home investigations that were borked like Islington, North wales etc were borked because an MP or three were involved.
If sex crimes are only partly about sex crimes and partly about sociopaths indulging in a diluted form of serial killing then you'd expect groups with a high percentage of sociopaths to have a disproportionate involvement in such crimes.
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O/T Murali's Election Forecast (MEF)
Based on June opinion polls, swingback, UKIP decline, LD improvement and some randomness.
Headline: Very hung parliament.
Cons 298, Lab 295, LD 29, UKIP 0, Other 28.
Probability of Con majority - 0%, probability of Lab majority - 0%, probability of NOM - 100 % (Con largest party 64%).
Probability of LD getting more votes than UKIP 72%
Next MEF in early August.0 -
Mr. Pubgoer, indeed. It's an excellent work. As a child I enjoyed the Yes, Minister diaries (I forget if Yes, Prime Minister was included), although the TV series is even better.0
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My copy is of two separate books.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pubgoer, indeed. It's an excellent work. As a child I enjoyed the Yes, Minister diaries (I forget if Yes, Prime Minister was included), although the TV series is even better.
Read them many, many times as a kid.
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On topic, I think the problem is that a simple yes/no question doesn't do enough to find out how many votes are still up for grabs. The question I would ask would be something like this:
Which of the following best describes how you will vote in the independence referendum?
Certain to vote for independence
Likely to vote for independence
Likely to vote to remain in the UK
Certain to vote to remain in the UK
Undecided/uncertain which way to vote
Will not vote
This would allow us to see how solid the vote is for each side and how many persuadable voters are still out there.
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To be pedantic, it's spelt burked with an u, after Burke and Hare who murdered poor Edinburgh folk, including Irish immigrants IIRC, to sell to the racist anatomist Robert Knox. So it's a very appropriate expression for you to use, especially as he, being upper class, got away with only a few broken windows (but admittedly a trashed reputation) and Burke got hung!MrJones said:
There's a surprise.AndyJS said:BBC - Dickens dossier has "gone missing".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28125537
Given that covering up for child-molesting MPs is standard practice it makes me wonder how many of the big children's home investigations that were borked like Islington, North wales etc were borked because an MP or three were involved.
If sex crimes are only partly about sex crimes and partly about sociopaths indulging in a diluted form of serial killing then you'd expect groups with a high percentage of sociopaths to have a disproportionate involvement in such crimes.
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Mr. Pubgoer, indeed, they're timeless series. The cynical realism's excellent.0
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@MrJones
"The third-largest energy-consuming industry is nonmetallic minerals, which includes cement, glass, brick, and ceramics"
All four products are essential in housebuilding, which HMG is desperately trying to encourage. A plan to encourage the products use whilst at the same time driving their production off-shore, to the detriment of jobs, balance of trade and the nations wealth whilst doing nothing about saving the planet (well, actually increasing the dreaded emissions), must be the most egregious example of government stupidity since the Crimean War. Yet politicians wonder why they are held in such contempt.0 -
"As a child", dear God the nursing home beckons. Steady on, Mr. Dancer, not all of us are prepared to be confronted with our advancing years in such blatant terms, especially at this time of the evening. You could at least try and soften the blow a bit.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pubgoer, indeed. It's an excellent work. As a child I enjoyed the Yes, Minister diaries (I forget if Yes, Prime Minister was included), although the TV series is even better.
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"Is there a misogynist inside every man?
Few men would freely admit to being a misogynist, but are we all guilty of misogynistic behaviour, asks Tom Fordy - and if so, how do we change our ways?"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/thinking-man/10924854/Is-there-a-misogynist-inside-every-man.html0
