Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What’s keeping YES hopes alive in the #IndyRef – the pollin
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What’s keeping YES hopes alive in the #IndyRef – the polling experience of Holyrood 2011
Why I'm not going all-in betting on NO in #IndyRef
Look at difference between final polls & result Holyrood 2011 pic.twitter.com/yX6YZ2Y9M6
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
[it's easier when TSE doesn't cheat]
*Innocent Face*
I'll have you know when I come first it's all down to me because I'm quick [ooh err accidental innuendo klaxon alert]
Football - Spain (Yes they flopped at the World cup but they're recent World/Euro Cup victories and still ranked #1).
Rugby Union - NZ (League Australia)
Cricket - Australia
Baseball - USA
Basketball - USA
Hockey (Field) - Australia
Hockey (Ice) - Canada Sweden
Netball - Australia
Waterpolo - Serbia
Polo - Argentina
Yes, Australia would appear to have a shout but then England would be (at various times) ok in the cricket and rugby also plus would place (eg. in the polo) so I don't think it would be as simple as to count up the No 1s - perhaps a moving average..?
I don't think it's likely, though. The fundamental flaws of the Yes case are just so enormous; concerns over job losses, the currency, the EU, pensions, the financial services sector, and all those other important questions which seem to have come as a complete surprise to Alex Salmond, are not going to go away.
The choice is so clear and stark that most minds have been made up months if not years ago and will not change bar some unforeseen major event .
Yes has been toast for months and will remain so in the next 3 months .
Wine-tasting: England
And thank you to OGH for highlighting this issue of Yougov weighting - I'll be interested to see whether any of the other pollsters respond.
Us white people are very good at playing divide and conquer, apparently.
Dwelling starts for England only from 2010 to end of last fiscal year are: All recent indicators (e.g. today's Markit Construction PMI) are suggesting Private Sector residential building construction is accelerating. It should be noted that of the 133,650 starts last year over 81% were private enterprise builds.
Residential construction remained the best performing area of activity during June. The latest rise in housing activity was the steepest since January.
The outlook over a twelve month timescale also looks strong:
Volumes of new work received by UK construction companies increased sharply in June and at the fastest pace since January.
I don't doubt the existence of an internal DCLG document nor that the BBC have got hold of a copy. What I question is the 4% shortfall projection and, even in the unlikely event that it were it true, its political significance.
I suspect it is no more than a mid-summer jolly boating weather exhortation to:
Swing swing together,
With your bodies between your knees
The problem with housebuilding doesn't lie in the private sector which is building at record levels when measured as a proportion to housing sales transactions and will continue to increase output as liquidity and volume in the housing market fully recovers.
The problem is in finding a business model and source of finance for housing association and local authority builds of 'low cost' dwellings.
The Coalition has built more Local Authority dwellings in its first four years than Labour did in its 13 years of government between 1997-2010 and average annual Housing Association builds are also higher (21k vs 19k), but the numbers for both governments fall far short of long term need.
Well, it's not the Yes side who keep on about it.
Seriously, though, I've always thought it was simply a modern version of those verse epics and ballads by the likes of Blind Harry - a bit reminiscent of the Arthurian story with not just Arthur's whatever but Wallace's Cave etc all over the place.
World rankings for England / Australia... (Men's sports except Netball)
Football - England 10th; Australia 62
Rugby Union - Aus 3rd; England 4th (League Aus 1; England 3)
Cricket - Australia 1st; England 5th (Both Test and ODI, T20 isn't "real" cricket" !)
Baseball - Aus 14th; (GBR 24th)
Basketball - Aus 9th; England ~20th
Hockey (Field) - Australia 1st; England 5th
Hockey (Ice) - GBR 22; Aus 34
Netball - Australia 1st; England 3rd
Waterpolo - Aus 9th Eng (GBR) 22nd
Polo - Eng 5th; Aus 7th
Tally as to who is ahead: Aus 7, Eng 3
Totals (Lower is better) Aus 141; England 122
Perhaps we truly are the jacks of all sports but masters of none ?
I suspect our FIFA world ranking might drop tbh...
V interesting indeed! We rock! But yes, not master of anything atm.
From wiki...
The film takes place during the real-life events of the Southern theater of the American Revolutionary War but attracted controversy over its fictional portrayal of historical figures and atrocities. Professor Mark Glancy, teacher of film history at Queen Mary, University of London has said: "It's horrendously inaccurate and attributes crimes committed by the Nazis in the 1940s to the British in the 1770s."
https://what-if.xkcd.com/48/
I always thought Shrek was Eck's style guru. Have you noticed he wears tartan trews...
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/07/02/camerons-reputation-unharmed-juncker-defeat/
Written and directed by a drunk anti Semite who hates the English.
I was shocked that in The Passion of the Christ, Jesus McChrist wasn't crucified by the bastard English.
http://madmonarchist.blogspot.co.uk/2009/12/monarchist-profile-banastre-tarleton.html?m=1
So who were the patriots?
Incidentally MalcolmG - I just want you to know that I feel the appropriate measure of sympathy with you over Scotland's failure today at Wmbldn.
Cameron set up Juncker as "undesirable" with little or no evidence, purely so that he could have a fight, which he knew he'd lose, and thus portray himself as the "hero" battling against the massed baddies of Brussels.There was no principle involved, only a desire by Cameron to be seen as "doing something" about Europe in a pathetic attempt to get the Kippers back into the Tory fold!
I highlight just one of its key points for the month, on the housing market:
Average UK house prices in April 2014 were around 6.5% above their pre-downturn peak, although much of this increase is concentrated in London. However, despite this recent rise, households continued to deleverage in Q1 2014. The stock of long term loans as a percentage of gross households’ disposable income has fallen from 133% in 2008 to 118% at the start of 2014.
It was rapid expansion and poor risk management in mortgage lending combined with rampant house price inflation in the early noughties which broke Gordon's promise of "no boom or bust".
One without the other is much less dangerous, and, with recent indicators that heat is being taken out of current house price inflation, the prospects for an extended period of low bank rate have increased.
It is Carney's policy to dampen house price rises through public warning, bank regulation and financial risk management leaving him free to use monetary policy solely to maintain low inflation, encourage high employment and support broader economic growth.
So far he is succeeding.
I don't THINK I'm the only one who reads it this way! Might be on this board I suppose!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28125537
"Around 400 jobs are to go at the Tata steelmaking plant in Port Talbot, the company has announced."
Why?
"The company spends £60m on electricity in Wales alone, and pays about 40% more for the electricity than competitors in continental Europe."
Good old Miliband's energy policy. Still we can hold our head up high in the international community and be proud that we are leading the way in saving the planet. Those 400 families will I am sure be grateful for being given the place of honour in the forefront of our battle against climate change. Life on the dole in South Wales will be warmed by the pride of the sacrifice they have made.
No spokesman for other European steel makers were available for comment mainly becuase they couldn't speak for laughing.
Little Englanders and the right wing press get excited about this sort of thing
Thanks Henry.
PS. One day hopefully I can give you the Malky.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/history/9653497/British-have-invaded-nine-out-of-ten-countries-so-look-out-Luxembourg.html
'I do hope they choose Chukka.
I can't imagine a more self-inflated empty suit.'
Could easily have substituted Obama for Chukka in 2008, or indeed Cameron in 2005!
Guatemala; don't pirates count, either? Surely Drake or Raleigh pillaged a Spanish settlement there at some point?
The other reason is the huge business rates.
"Chief executive Karl Koehler said the changes were vital if the company was to remain competitive.
He pointed to the UK's high business rates and "uncompetitive" energy costs as factors in the decision."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-28104757
If costs remain to be so uncompetitive, it is highly likely that all steel-making will disappear from the UK and much of western Europe and we will have to source our requirements from Asia.
I remember the last time - he got lots of sympathy messages which he curtly waved away: "Nobody's died. Let's move on."
Great country, full of saucy mares
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28130581
Ed Davey and Ed Milliband, take a bow.
We are very good at it, it seems.
If the rest of the world just accepted British suzerainty it would make things much easier.
For me, this is far and away the most significant event of the day:
http://www.communitycare.co.uk/2014/07/01/getting-point-funding-unsustainable-want-meet-need-appropriately-adass-chief/
The consequences for Council adult social care from the Supreme Court ruling on Deprivation of Liberty Safeguards (DoLS) are and have been considerable. Whether we like it or not, the demands in the field of adult social care are increasing and even though the demographic time bomb of an elderly population has been recognised for thirty years, successive Governments have failed miserably to prepare.
One of the biggest national disgraces is our chronic inability to provide enough of our elderly with an adequate and dignified standard of life. At least this Government is starting to make people see the necessity for adequate and proper financial planning for retirement but it's too little and arguably too late.
James Hacker: [reads memo] This file contains the complete set of papers, except for a number of secret documents, a few others which are part of still active files, some correspondence lost in the floods of 1967...
James Hacker: Was 1967 a particularly bad winter?
Sir Humphrey Appleby: No, a marvellous winter. We lost no end of embarrassing files.
industrial sectors that use the most electricity according to that link
1) "The largest industrial sector consumer of delivered energy is the chemical industry"
2) "The second-largest user of energy in the world industrial sector is the iron and steel industry"
3) "The third-largest energy-consuming industry is nonmetallic minerals, which includes cement, glass, brick, and ceramics"
4) "Pulp and paper production"
5) "Production of nonferrous metals, which include aluminum, copper, lead, and zinc"
so i assume these will be the sectors wiped out by wind power?
It'd be funny if the recycled paper industry closes down over green leccy prices.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/02/eu-right-to-be-forgotten-guardian-google
Google now allows you to choose google.com at the bottom of its search page. Everyone should just make sure that they do that.
The Caterham story has been fleshed out a bit: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/28129627
It's amazing that over 30 years after it was written Yes Minister is still so eminently quotable
Given that covering up for child-molesting MPs is standard practice it makes me wonder how many of the big children's home investigations that were borked like Islington, North wales etc were borked because an MP or three were involved.
If sex crimes are only partly about sex crimes and partly about sociopaths indulging in a diluted form of serial killing then you'd expect groups with a high percentage of sociopaths to have a disproportionate involvement in such crimes.
Based on June opinion polls, swingback, UKIP decline, LD improvement and some randomness.
Headline: Very hung parliament.
Cons 298, Lab 295, LD 29, UKIP 0, Other 28.
Probability of Con majority - 0%, probability of Lab majority - 0%, probability of NOM - 100 % (Con largest party 64%).
Probability of LD getting more votes than UKIP 72%
Next MEF in early August.
Read them many, many times as a kid.
Which of the following best describes how you will vote in the independence referendum?
Certain to vote for independence
Likely to vote for independence
Likely to vote to remain in the UK
Certain to vote to remain in the UK
Undecided/uncertain which way to vote
Will not vote
This would allow us to see how solid the vote is for each side and how many persuadable voters are still out there.
"The third-largest energy-consuming industry is nonmetallic minerals, which includes cement, glass, brick, and ceramics"
All four products are essential in housebuilding, which HMG is desperately trying to encourage. A plan to encourage the products use whilst at the same time driving their production off-shore, to the detriment of jobs, balance of trade and the nations wealth whilst doing nothing about saving the planet (well, actually increasing the dreaded emissions), must be the most egregious example of government stupidity since the Crimean War. Yet politicians wonder why they are held in such contempt.
Few men would freely admit to being a misogynist, but are we all guilty of misogynistic behaviour, asks Tom Fordy - and if so, how do we change our ways?"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/thinking-man/10924854/Is-there-a-misogynist-inside-every-man.html