Johnson’s vaccine polling boost seems to be dissipating – politicalbetting.com
Johnson’s vaccine polling boost seems to be dissipating – politicalbetting.com
Having hit the extraordinary polling margin on 13% at the start of the month the latest polls in the Wikipedia table the most recent published surveys have gaps nowhere nearly as large. In fact as can be seen two of the latest five surveys have it at just 2%.
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That's not a third foot, it's because he's an enormous cock.WhisperingOracle said:Bolsonaro is one of the worst leaders at the worst possible time. One foot in the 1970s Junta, one foot in the amazon-burning agribusiness that is harming the entire planet, and one foot in entirely superficial Trumpian culture-war politics.
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Tories have a small to moderate lead seems to be the sensible assumption. But it at least gives some hope to the non-Khan people in the locals.1
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The wish, as they say, is father to the thought...1
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Curious and curiouser.0
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Pass.MikeSmithson said:Test
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The header says May 4th locals. It is May 6th I think.1
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His vaccine boost with me has dissipated a bit, because though I am grateful for the vaccines, he has now, perhaps understandably, responded to no longer being less popular than incurable warts, by acting like a bit of a wazzock again.
His opining on greed to the '22 being the latest example of this cocky behaviour - I am afraid I can just imagine him stretching his legs out and warming to his old war story of the Battle of the Vaccines to a rapturous (he thinks) crowd, and then he opens his mouth and stupidity comes out. I don't know why I'm a bit less tolerant of it than usual.1 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tvrI3wy_TGkkle4 said:Tories have a small to moderate lead seems to be the sensible assumption. But it at least gives some hope to the non-Khan people in the locals.
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If the endgame is four states then we'll all be fine. It is not the fourteenth century.Razedabode said:Black_Rook said:
It hasn't dawned on quite a lot of people that King Edward I (who was essentially French anyway) died seven centuries ago, and that England doesn't really go in for the empire building thing much nowadays.Mexicanpete said:
I am expecting a united Ireland too.Razedabode said:
Hey, while we’re at it, we may as well all go back to the constituent nations of the UK.Mexicanpete said:
Drakey may be as dull as dishwater, but he knows if Scotland jump the Union ship, there will be a domino effect in Wales.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is not the same as supporting independencewilliamglenn said:
He keeps saying things like this:Big_G_NorthWales said:I have no idea where you get the idea labour in Wales has turned into a Nationalist party as there is no evidence I have seen for that observation and indeed Drakeford only a few days ago pledged his support for the union, and not for the first time
Wales is not Scotland and Independence is not an issue
https://twitter.com/NationCymru/status/1374413553080311816
Not sure where that would leave us. England as the largest (presumably most dominant) nation in the isles?
An independent Wales won't happen immediately, but the notion of subservience to our feudal landlord will start to grate.
Exactly this - I wonder how we’ll coexist on this relatively small island of ours.WhisperingOracle said:
That would be an interesting test, because it has to be said there\s never previously been a period of calm co-existence. Prior to the Union there was obviously the perpetual tension between England and Scotland, English domination of Wales, and reaching even further back, areas such as the West Country maintained a certain ambiguous, Saxon/Brythonic borderland status even quite late on.Razedabode said:
Hey, while we’re at it, we may as well all go back to the constituent nations of the UK.Mexicanpete said:
Drakey may be as dull as dishwater, but he knows if Scotland jump the Union ship, there will be a domino effect in Wales.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is not the same as supporting independencewilliamglenn said:
He keeps saying things like this:Big_G_NorthWales said:I have no idea where you get the idea labour in Wales has turned into a Nationalist party as there is no evidence I have seen for that observation and indeed Drakeford only a few days ago pledged his support for the union, and not for the first time
Wales is not Scotland and Independence is not an issue
https://twitter.com/NationCymru/status/1374413553080311816
Not sure where that would leave us. England as the largest (presumably most dominant) nation in the isles?1 -
Amusing that when the 13% poll came out the line was that it was probably an outlier unless verified by other polls.
But a couple of weeks later it's the benchmark from which there's been a decline.9 -
I have heard of political analysts who think leader ratings are a better guide than VI
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"Johnson’s vaccine .. boost seems to be dissipating"
All our vaccine boosts are dissipating in the senseless looming vaccine war.0 -
There is of course no such thing as a poll where you don't have to wait for the next one to say anything about it, but all the recent polls including these are within margin of error for Tory 42 Labour 36/35 and that is not true of any other Con/Lab figures you can currently cook up.
This is also true of the 13% lead poll.1 -
Haha yes!Philip_Thompson said:Amusing that when the 13% poll came out the line was that it was probably an outlier unless verified by other polls.
But a couple of weeks later it's the benchmark from which there's been a decline.2 -
Comedy results and BMG. ... what is their history of accuracy?0
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Yawn! You'll be going on about charisma quotients next.isam said:I have heard of political analysts who think leader ratings are a better guide than VI
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Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.1 -
LAB nailed on for overall majority 2024!
Keir can start to measure the curtains in No 10 now!!
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Just trying to help you fellows outMexicanpete said:
Yawn! You'll be going on about charisma quotients next.isam said:I have heard of political analysts who think leader ratings are a better guide than VI
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I think my opinion is well known - the Tories will walk this seat.Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.1 -
Christ, how often do people need to change the curtains? Are they constantly being eaten by moths or widdled on by Dilyn?londonpubman said:LAB nailed on for overall majority 2024!
Keir can start to measure the curtains in No 10 now!!1 -
He can damn well do with Princess NutNuts' curtains, they cost us enough.londonpubman said:LAB nailed on for overall majority 2024!
Keir can start to measure the curtains in No 10 now!!10 -
It would be an extraordinary end to the various Britons' collective era of greatest influence around the world, but on the other hand Brexit may always have meant that anyway.Black_Rook said:
If the endgame is four states then we'll all be fine. It is not the fourteenth century.Razedabode said:Black_Rook said:
It hasn't dawned on quite a lot of people that King Edward I (who was essentially French anyway) died seven centuries ago, and that England doesn't really go in for the empire building thing much nowadays.Mexicanpete said:
I am expecting a united Ireland too.Razedabode said:
Hey, while we’re at it, we may as well all go back to the constituent nations of the UK.Mexicanpete said:
Drakey may be as dull as dishwater, but he knows if Scotland jump the Union ship, there will be a domino effect in Wales.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is not the same as supporting independencewilliamglenn said:
He keeps saying things like this:Big_G_NorthWales said:I have no idea where you get the idea labour in Wales has turned into a Nationalist party as there is no evidence I have seen for that observation and indeed Drakeford only a few days ago pledged his support for the union, and not for the first time
Wales is not Scotland and Independence is not an issue
https://twitter.com/NationCymru/status/1374413553080311816
Not sure where that would leave us. England as the largest (presumably most dominant) nation in the isles?
An independent Wales won't happen immediately, but the notion of subservience to our feudal landlord will start to grate.
Exactly this - I wonder how we’ll coexist on this relatively small island of ours.WhisperingOracle said:
That would be an interesting test, because it has to be said there\s never previously been a period of calm co-existence. Prior to the Union there was obviously the perpetual tension between England and Scotland, English domination of Wales, and reaching even further back, areas such as the West Country maintained a certain ambiguous, Saxon/Brythonic borderland status even quite late on.Razedabode said:
Hey, while we’re at it, we may as well all go back to the constituent nations of the UK.Mexicanpete said:
Drakey may be as dull as dishwater, but he knows if Scotland jump the Union ship, there will be a domino effect in Wales.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is not the same as supporting independencewilliamglenn said:
He keeps saying things like this:Big_G_NorthWales said:I have no idea where you get the idea labour in Wales has turned into a Nationalist party as there is no evidence I have seen for that observation and indeed Drakeford only a few days ago pledged his support for the union, and not for the first time
Wales is not Scotland and Independence is not an issue
https://twitter.com/NationCymru/status/1374413553080311816
Not sure where that would leave us. England as the largest (presumably most dominant) nation in the isles?
I wonder what Marx would have made of that possibility if he was still working from his dilapidated flat in Soho. Interested excitement, I expect.0 -
All good stuff. But the turn out will be very very low imho. Will those grumpy BXP voters bother? Or will Lab just squeak home by a hard GOTV operation?Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
I'm on Lab at 2.02.
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algarkirk said:
There is of course no such thing as a poll where you don't have to wait for the next one to say anything about it, but all the recent polls including these are within margin of error for Tory 42 Labour 36/35 and that is not true of any other Con/Lab figures you can currently cook up.
This is also true of the 13% lead poll.
Agreed. 42/36 feels about right at the moment. Of course if Labour can pull closer and 39/37 polls are more frequent in the run up to the elections they can start to feel more upbeat, but equally if the EU play silly buggers it’s hard to see how the Tory vote share falls below 40%. The best thing for Labour would be Ursula and co keeping schtum for a while.0 -
Hmm.
When's he due for his second dose? That should push his ratings back up again.0 -
Well it is a lot easy to be liberal about it now!rottenborough said:Blimey. Actual Liberals.
https://twitter.com/theipaper/status/13744448509976944680 -
To correct the header, a 2% swing would not remove the Tory majority.Labour needs a swing of nearer 4% to achieve that - indeed a 2% pro-Labour swing would still mean a Tory lead of more than 7.5% and a majority of circa 40 seats.0
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According to Electoral Calculus today's BMG poll would give Tories 316, Labour 249, SNP 55, LDs 7, Plaid 4, Greens 1 and NI 18.
So a hung parliament and the DUP would again hold the balance of power a la 2017, though if SF took their seats there would be a centre left majority and Starmer would be PM, unlike 2017 when Tories plus DUP would have reached 327 seats combined and over the 326 threshold for an overall majority
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=37&LIB=9&Reform=2&Green=3&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=21&SCOTLAB=22&SCOTLIB=6.5&SCOTReform=0&SCOTGreen=0&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base
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Here's my theory.
The "vaccine bounce" was people projecting an event upon which their personal nightmare would be over.
And all would be well.
Either when they are vaccinated for the oldies, or when the bloody kids are back at school for the slightly younger ones.
For most this has now happened.
And they are not magically happy.
There is no happily ever after in life I'm afraid.2 -
I agree low turnout is Labour’s friend. The 2004 Hartlepool by election turnout of 46% was weak but not disastrously low and perhaps a good pointer. The great unknown is will the vaccinated oldies go out and vote or will they stay indoors. I’d expect postal voting to be a higher proportion this time round and that possibly benefits the Blues. But a lot of guessing.rottenborough said:
All good stuff. But the turn out will be very very low imho. Will those grumpy BXP voters bother? Or will Lab just squeak home by a hard GOTV operation?Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
I'm on Lab at 2.02.0 -
No matter how bad your day may have been today, at least you didn’t block the entire Suez Canal with your ship
https://twitter.com/jsrailton/status/1374438210315513864
(Unless the captain of the MV Ever Given happens to be a PBer, that is.)3 -
No, I think Tories are good value. As well as your points, Corbynite Twitter is talking up the NIP. They won't win, but they could stop Labour doing so.Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1374412155001266183?s=190 -
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.0 -
In contrast to many on here, I have backed the Tories in Hartlepool. It had an almost unique set of circumstance in 2019 to allow Labour to hang on. The only other not disimilar constituency was Barnsley East but that had stronger Labour shares through the 2010s, and a far lower profile BXP candidate.Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
All GEs in the 2010s
Barnsley East 47 / 54.7 / 59.5 / 37.6
Hartlepool 42.5 / 35.6 / 52.5 / 37.71 -
That could be a more credible backstory for Sean’s next account than anything he’s managed to come up with....rpjs said:No matter how bad your day may have been today, at least you didn’t block the entire Suez Canal with your ship
https://twitter.com/jsrailton/status/1374438210315513864
(Unless the captain of the MV Ever Given happens to be a PBer, that is.)2 -
I believe the vaccine bounce is a real thing, not as a silver bullet to all our woes but paired against a backdrop of lockdown and vaccine chaos in other countries it will stir a bit of patriotism and a feeling that our normal is a little bit more enjoyable than normal elsewhere. But when Europe does get its shit together, perhaps in 2 or 3 months time our advantages will disappear and the success of our rollout will no longer be something Boris can fall back on.dixiedean said:Here's my theory.
The "vaccine bounce" was people projecting an event upon which their personal nightmare would be over.
And all would be well.
Either when they are vaccinated for the oldies, or when the bloody kids are back at school for the slightly younger ones.
For most this has now happened.
And they are not magically happy.
There is no happily ever after in life I'm afraid.1 -
The LOESS smooth of the opinion poll results on the Wikipedia page does not agree with this analysis. Last updated yesterday it shows a steady increase in the Tory lead from nearly nothing at the start of the year that has continued through March to a present value of about 7.5. Roughly 4 million first doses of the vaccine per percentage point lead.
At that rate the lead could end up at 13 by the time we're all injected the first time round.
https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_after_2019_(LOESS).svg0 -
Mostly the latter, I believe...kle4 said:
Christ, how often do people need to change the curtains? Are they constantly being eaten by moths or widdled on by Dilyn?londonpubman said:LAB nailed on for overall majority 2024!
Keir can start to measure the curtains in No 10 now!!
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9280195/Somebody-shoot-f-ing-dog-Boris-Johnson-growled-Dilyn-gnawed-antiques-Chequers.html1 -
They can’t even house train a dog?Foxy said:
Mostly the latter, I believe...kle4 said:
Christ, how often do people need to change the curtains? Are they constantly being eaten by moths or widdled on by Dilyn?londonpubman said:LAB nailed on for overall majority 2024!
Keir can start to measure the curtains in No 10 now!!
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9280195/Somebody-shoot-f-ing-dog-Boris-Johnson-growled-Dilyn-gnawed-antiques-Chequers.html0 -
0
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I am going to row back on my earlier comment re- the header. I assume a mistype occurred in that Mike intended to say '2% Con lead'. That would indeed be an anti-Tory swing of 4.8% compared with 2019 ,and on a UNS basis would produce a Hung Parliament.0
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I understand the hostile environment is about to get even more hostile - Patel is announcing a crackdown on asylum claims from people who have travelled from a "safe" country tomorrow.0
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That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
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Lol what?Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1374484531516862483
Reaper drones to patrol the beaches !0 -
Dilyn was only ever a photo opportunity. A man who neglects his children is never going to look after a dog well.IanB2 said:
They can’t even house train a dog?Foxy said:
Mostly the latter, I believe...kle4 said:
Christ, how often do people need to change the curtains? Are they constantly being eaten by moths or widdled on by Dilyn?londonpubman said:LAB nailed on for overall majority 2024!
Keir can start to measure the curtains in No 10 now!!
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9280195/Somebody-shoot-f-ing-dog-Boris-Johnson-growled-Dilyn-gnawed-antiques-Chequers.html2 -
Bonkers. Our masters have totally lost the plot.Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1374484531516862483
Reaper drones to patrol the beaches !
There is little if any transmission outdoors. One of the Asian countries (SK?) tracked the contacts of their cases and iirc found not a single case of outdoor transmission.
I imagine a breezy beach would turn out to be covid's worst environment for transmission.1 -
Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.0 -
"He will make an excellent drone!"Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1374484531516862483
Reaper drones to patrol the beaches !0 -
Yes. I think we are agreeing over slightly different time scales.Brom said:
I believe the vaccine bounce is a real thing, not as a silver bullet to all our woes but paired against a backdrop of lockdown and vaccine chaos in other countries it will stir a bit of patriotism and a feeling that our normal is a little bit more enjoyable than normal elsewhere. But when Europe does get its shit together, perhaps in 2 or 3 months time our advantages will disappear and the success of our rollout will no longer be something Boris can fall back on.dixiedean said:Here's my theory.
The "vaccine bounce" was people projecting an event upon which their personal nightmare would be over.
And all would be well.
Either when they are vaccinated for the oldies, or when the bloody kids are back at school for the slightly younger ones.
For most this has now happened.
And they are not magically happy.
There is no happily ever after in life I'm afraid.
One unknown is whether this "normal" will be quite so enjoyable as folk currently think it will be?
Will it be a nirvana?
Or will folk discover that pretty damn soon it brings the usual strife albeit of a different kind?0 -
A massive poll takes place in 6 weeks. We'll know the true state of the parties then.1
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They seem like the Airbnb guests from hell.IanB2 said:
They can’t even house train a dog?Foxy said:
Mostly the latter, I believe...kle4 said:
Christ, how often do people need to change the curtains? Are they constantly being eaten by moths or widdled on by Dilyn?londonpubman said:LAB nailed on for overall majority 2024!
Keir can start to measure the curtains in No 10 now!!
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9280195/Somebody-shoot-f-ing-dog-Boris-Johnson-growled-Dilyn-gnawed-antiques-Chequers.html0 -
Red meat for the red wall.Bournville said:I understand the hostile environment is about to get even more hostile - Patel is announcing a crackdown on asylum claims from people who have travelled from a "safe" country tomorrow.
0 -
One thing is for sure, this is likely to be a bit of nail biter.Pulpstar said:
In contrast to many on here, I have backed the Tories in Hartlepool. It had an almost unique set of circumstance in 2019 to allow Labour to hang on. The only other not disimilar constituency was Barnsley East but that had stronger Labour shares through the 2010s, and a far lower profile BXP candidate.Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
All GEs in the 2010s
Barnsley East 47 / 54.7 / 59.5 / 37.6
Hartlepool 42.5 / 35.6 / 52.5 / 37.7
Is it a night time count?0 -
Intel just fucked Taiwan. Hard.1
-
One of the quickest ways for the Government to spaff its lead over Labour up the wall would be to confine the whole population within our borders this Summer, and then send legions of local council jobsworths in high vis vests (let alone fleets of robotic helicopters) to pester beachgoers to keep two sodding metres apart.Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1374484531516862483
Reaper drones to patrol the beaches !
It would never work anyway. The jobsworths would quickly become demoralised through being told to fuck off a thousand times a day, and people would make a sport of trying to bring the drones down with well-aimed frisbees.0 -
We should be encouraging people to spend as much time outside as possible. If it weren't for the fact that hopefully everyone will have had a first injection by the summer, it would be positively harmful to send everyone inside.rottenborough said:
Bonkers. Our masters have totally lost the plot.Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1374484531516862483
Reaper drones to patrol the beaches !
There is little if any transmission outdoors. One of the Asian countries (SK?) tracked the contacts of their cases and iirc found not a single case of outdoor transmission.
I imagine a breezy beach would turn out to be covid's worst environment for transmission.2 -
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.justin124 said:Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.0 -
Go on.....MaxPB said:Intel just fucked Taiwan. Hard.
Oh just seen it, two massive fabs to be built in Arizona to make 7nm chips for 2023 launch....i might just have my 3090 delivered by then!1 -
There's your incentive for not going on your foreign holiday?Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1374484531516862483
Reaper drones to patrol the beaches !0 -
Steady on.MarqueeMark said:A massive poll takes place in 6 weeks. We'll know the true state of the parties then.
On that extrapolation you'll have the LDs claiming they are preparing for Government..0 -
Brom said:
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.justin124 said:Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
Indeed - and he is well placed to do that on an issue likely to hit home far more effectively than Brexit. In 2019 Labour's vote will have been depressed by Corbyn too - a factor no longer relevant.Brom said:
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.justin124 said:Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.0 -
Intel to sell 10nm and 7nm manufacturing capacity to third parties including Qualcomm. Intel's 7nm process on track for 2023 release as well, their 7nm process is more dense than TSMC 5nm so will have better performance. Two new fabs in the US as well.FrancisUrquhart said:
Go on.....MaxPB said:Intel just fucked Taiwan. Hard.
Honestly, this eliminates TSMC's stranglehold on the high end fab market. Loads of American companies will use Intel's spare 10nm capacity from Q3 onwards as it is competitive with TSMC's 7nm+ and 5nm products.0 -
If the government aren't going to allow foreign holidays, the quid pro quo has to be fairly free to do what we want in the UK. That is how Australia and NZ manage to continue their prison island existance.Black_Rook said:
One of the quickest ways for the Government to spaff its lead over Labour up the wall would be to confine the whole population within our borders this Summer, and then send legions of local council jobsworths in high vis vests (let alone fleets of robotic helicopters) to pester beachgoers to keep two sodding metres apart.Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1374484531516862483
Reaper drones to patrol the beaches !
It would never work anyway. The jobsworths would quickly become demoralised through being told to fuck off a thousand times a day, and people would make a sport of trying to bring the drones down with well-aimed frisbees.1 -
Have you been doing any phone canvassing?justin124 said:Brom said:
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.justin124 said:Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
Indeed - and he is well placed to do that on an issue likely to hit home far more effectively than Brexit. In 2019 Labour's vote will have been depressed by Corbyn too - a factor no longer relevant.Brom said:
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.justin124 said:Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
SKS very unpopular too apparently0 -
Using drones to ‘reduce the numbers’ seems overly draconian...Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1374484531516862483
Reaper drones to patrol the beaches !
Though given this government’s proclivities, you might expect then to use Spitfires to strafe the beaches, instead.3 -
Its really good news for all of us....nobody can get a sodding thing at the moment because everything from PS5 to 3090s to chips for cars are all backed up with TSMC and Samsung fabs.MaxPB said:
Intel to sell 10nm and 7nm manufacturing capacity to third parties including Qualcomm. Intel's 7nm process on track for 2023 release as well, their 7nm process is more dense than TSMC 5nm so will have better performance. Two new fabs in the US as well.FrancisUrquhart said:
Go on.....MaxPB said:Intel just fucked Taiwan. Hard.
Honestly, this eliminates TSMC's stranglehold on the high end fab market. Loads of American companies will use Intel's spare 10nm capacity from Q3 onwards as it is competitive with TSMC's 7nm+ and 5nm products.1 -
I will believe it, if and when those fabs start producing chips.MaxPB said:
Intel to sell 10nm and 7nm manufacturing capacity to third parties including Qualcomm. Intel's 7nm process on track for 2023 release as well, their 7nm process is more dense than TSMC 5nm so will have better performance. Two new fabs in the US as well.FrancisUrquhart said:
Go on.....MaxPB said:Intel just fucked Taiwan. Hard.
Honestly, this eliminates TSMC's stranglehold on the high end fab market. Loads of American companies will use Intel's spare 10nm capacity from Q3 onwards as it is competitive with TSMC's 7nm+ and 5nm products.
0 -
Not on the same scale according to national polls. Many are still saying 'Don't Know' or are unaware of him. In which area has this phone canvassing been taking place?bigjohnowls said:
Have you been doing any phone canvassing?justin124 said:Brom said:
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.justin124 said:Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
Indeed - and he is well placed to do that on an issue likely to hit home far more effectively than Brexit. In 2019 Labour's vote will have been depressed by Corbyn too - a factor no longer relevant.Brom said:
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.justin124 said:Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
SKS very unpopular too apparently0 -
There is a palpable lack of enthusiasm. Corbyn was marmite, Starmer is margarine.bigjohnowls said:
Have you been doing any phone canvassing?justin124 said:Brom said:
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.justin124 said:Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
Indeed - and he is well placed to do that on an issue likely to hit home far more effectively than Brexit. In 2019 Labour's vote will have been depressed by Corbyn too - a factor no longer relevant.Brom said:
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.justin124 said:Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
SKS very unpopular too apparently1 -
Pat Gelsinger is back in charge of Intel, he turned Intel into what it is today. I've got no doubt that by the time we get to 2023 Intel's engineering and design will be back on track and very competitive with the AMD/TSMC combination.eek said:
I will believe it, if and when those fabs start producing chips.MaxPB said:
Intel to sell 10nm and 7nm manufacturing capacity to third parties including Qualcomm. Intel's 7nm process on track for 2023 release as well, their 7nm process is more dense than TSMC 5nm so will have better performance. Two new fabs in the US as well.FrancisUrquhart said:
Go on.....MaxPB said:Intel just fucked Taiwan. Hard.
Honestly, this eliminates TSMC's stranglehold on the high end fab market. Loads of American companies will use Intel's spare 10nm capacity from Q3 onwards as it is competitive with TSMC's 7nm+ and 5nm products.0 -
Corbyn was very unpopular in 2019 too...bigjohnowls said:
Have you been doing any phone canvassing?justin124 said:Brom said:
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.justin124 said:Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
Indeed - and he is well placed to do that on an issue likely to hit home far more effectively than Brexit. In 2019 Labour's vote will have been depressed by Corbyn too - a factor no longer relevant.Brom said:
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.justin124 said:Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
SKS very unpopular too apparently1 -
Well, we are prepared to nuke Internet trolls...Nigelb said:
Using drones to ‘reduce the numbers’ seems overly draconian...Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1374484531516862483
Reaper drones to patrol the beaches !
Though given this government’s proclivities, you might expect then to use Spitfires to strafe the beaches, instead.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/mar/16/defence-review-uk-could-use-trident-to-counter-cyber-attack0 -
Ubiquitous and suitable with nearly every other topping?Foxy said:
There is a palpable lack of enthusiasm. Cobyn was marmite, Starmer is margarine.bigjohnowls said:
Have you been doing any phone canvassing?justin124 said:Brom said:
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.justin124 said:Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
Indeed - and he is well placed to do that on an issue likely to hit home far more effectively than Brexit. In 2019 Labour's vote will have been depressed by Corbyn too - a factor no longer relevant.Brom said:
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.justin124 said:Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
SKS very unpopular too apparently0 -
Is it necessarily right to assume Tice's vote will collapse if he stands again?Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.0 -
I've followed the link trail back to the i newspaper piece. It mentioned "Covid marshals," but the emphasis seems not to be on the disease but on traffic management, which is rather more understandable.FrancisUrquhart said:
If the government aren't going to allow foreign holidays, the quid pro quo has to be fairly free to do what we want in the UK. That is how Australia and NZ manage to continue their prison island existance.Black_Rook said:
One of the quickest ways for the Government to spaff its lead over Labour up the wall would be to confine the whole population within our borders this Summer, and then send legions of local council jobsworths in high vis vests (let alone fleets of robotic helicopters) to pester beachgoers to keep two sodding metres apart.Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1374484531516862483
Reaper drones to patrol the beaches !
It would never work anyway. The jobsworths would quickly become demoralised through being told to fuck off a thousand times a day, and people would make a sport of trying to bring the drones down with well-aimed frisbees.
Kurt Janson from the Tourism Alliance, which represents tourism businesses, said: “We’re hoping better plans will be in place this time because when we do open self-catering on 12 April there are also likely to be large numbers of day trippers, so plans need to be in place to make sure there is no impact to local communities.”
Mr Janson said tourism and council bodies could consider funnelling day trippers to less busy areas or beaches by using phone apps, or through better traffic management. Other plans could include only allowing visitors who have booked accommodation in the area.
“It isn’t about telling people to stay away,” Mr Janson said. “It’s very difficult to stop people travelling at all. It’s about managing where people do go.
That sounds less like yet more Plague-related nannying and more like not ending up with about three million people in the same place at the same time, which is arguably justified and perhaps even necessary. You have half the population of Birmingham trying to go to Bournemouth on the same day and they'll end up leaving tonnes of litter, piss and shit everywhere because the bins and the loos will be wholly insufficient to cope, and people will die of heat stroke or suffocation on the trains going there and back.
Hopefully we will therefore be spared bossy boots pestering in areas that aren't stuffed to the gunwales.0 -
Probably yes. What is RefUK for?Andy_JS said:
Is it necessarily right to assume Tice's vote will collapse if he stands again?Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.0 -
Indeed, let the youngsters go to music festivals to let off some steam and party the nights away.FrancisUrquhart said:
If the government aren't going to allow foreign holidays, the quid pro quo has to be fairly free to do what we want in the UK. That is how Australia and NZ manage to continue their prison island existance.Black_Rook said:
One of the quickest ways for the Government to spaff its lead over Labour up the wall would be to confine the whole population within our borders this Summer, and then send legions of local council jobsworths in high vis vests (let alone fleets of robotic helicopters) to pester beachgoers to keep two sodding metres apart.Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1374484531516862483
Reaper drones to patrol the beaches !
It would never work anyway. The jobsworths would quickly become demoralised through being told to fuck off a thousand times a day, and people would make a sport of trying to bring the drones down with well-aimed frisbees.0 -
Apparently so but the phone canvassers locally are seeing no SKS improvementSunil_Prasannan said:
Corbyn was very unpopular in 2019 too...bigjohnowls said:
Have you been doing any phone canvassing?justin124 said:Brom said:
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.justin124 said:Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
Indeed - and he is well placed to do that on an issue likely to hit home far more effectively than Brexit. In 2019 Labour's vote will have been depressed by Corbyn too - a factor no longer relevant.Brom said:
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.justin124 said:Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
SKS very unpopular too apparently
Different voters different reasons same level of unpopularity I am told0 -
No. We don't want to live in this sort of society.Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1374484531516862483
Reaper drones to patrol the beaches !2 -
If you want to oppose the government but don't believe in Woke-ism perhaps...Black_Rook said:
Probably yes. What is RefUK for?Andy_JS said:
Is it necessarily right to assume Tice's vote will collapse if he stands again?Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.0 -
About time we had a new Gold Standard pollster. Arise BMG1
-
I think this is the direction of travel.Foxy said:
Indeed, let the youngsters go to music festivals to let off some steam and party the nights away.FrancisUrquhart said:
If the government aren't going to allow foreign holidays, the quid pro quo has to be fairly free to do what we want in the UK. That is how Australia and NZ manage to continue their prison island existance.Black_Rook said:
One of the quickest ways for the Government to spaff its lead over Labour up the wall would be to confine the whole population within our borders this Summer, and then send legions of local council jobsworths in high vis vests (let alone fleets of robotic helicopters) to pester beachgoers to keep two sodding metres apart.Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1374484531516862483
Reaper drones to patrol the beaches !
It would never work anyway. The jobsworths would quickly become demoralised through being told to fuck off a thousand times a day, and people would make a sport of trying to bring the drones down with well-aimed frisbees.
Allow the domestic reopening as scheduled including 21 June virtual total unlocking - but no foreign travel unless essential at least until early next year.
2 -
Completely undermines Taiwan's strategic importance to the US economy if US companies like Qualcomm, Apple and IBM can source high end silicon from Intel rather than rely on TSMC.Nigelb said:
A bit of an exaggeration.MaxPB said:Intel just fucked Taiwan. Hard.
The 7nm fabs aren't a big deal, it's just ongoing investment by Intel. The scale and allowing third parties to get 7nm at the same time as Intel is a huge surprise and it's a giant turd served up to TSMC and Taiwan.0 -
I thought he was the ultra remain, pro Saudi progressive democracy, pro Tory MILF CandidateBrom said:
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.justin124 said:Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.0 -
Prince Harry's new job is to be Chief Impact Officer with a company called BetterUp.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-565002980 -
Anyone got any details about Johnson's foot -in-his mouth that Laura K was going on about? Accusing Astra Zen of being highway robbers?0
-
He can be more than one thing.bigjohnowls said:
I thought he was the ultra remain, pro Saudi progressive democracy, pro Tory MILF CandidateBrom said:
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.justin124 said:Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
I'd call that fishing in a small pool.Andy_JS said:
If you want to oppose the government but don't believe in Woke-ism perhaps...Black_Rook said:
Probably yes. What is RefUK for?Andy_JS said:
Is it necessarily right to assume Tice's vote will collapse if he stands again?Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
Drones do help with the live part of that.Andy_JS said:
No. We don't want to live in this sort of society.Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1374484531516862483
Reaper drones to patrol the beaches !1 -
Black_Rook said:
It hasn't dawned on quite a lot of people that King Edward I (who was essentially French anyway) died seven centuries ago, and that England doesn't really go in for the empire building thing much nowadays.Mexicanpete said:
I am expecting a united Ireland too.Razedabode said:
Hey, while we’re at it, we may as well all go back to the constituent nations of the UK.Mexicanpete said:
Drakey may be as dull as dishwater, but he knows if Scotland jump the Union ship, there will be a domino effect in Wales.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is not the same as supporting independencewilliamglenn said:
He keeps saying things like this:Big_G_NorthWales said:I have no idea where you get the idea labour in Wales has turned into a Nationalist party as there is no evidence I have seen for that observation and indeed Drakeford only a few days ago pledged his support for the union, and not for the first time
Wales is not Scotland and Independence is not an issue
https://twitter.com/NationCymru/status/1374413553080311816
Not sure where that would leave us. England as the largest (presumably most dominant) nation in the isles?
An independent Wales won't happen immediately, but the notion of subservience to our feudal landlord will start to grate.
Exactly this - I wonder how we’ll coexist on this relatively small island of ours.WhisperingOracle said:
That would be an interesting test, because it has to be said there\s never previously been a period of calm co-existence. Prior to the Union there was obviously the perpetual tension between England and Scotland, English domination of Wales, and reaching even further back, areas such as the West Country maintained a certain ambiguous, Saxon/Brythonic borderland status even quite late on.Razedabode said:
Hey, while we’re at it, we may as well all go back to the constituent nations of the UK.Mexicanpete said:
Drakey may be as dull as dishwater, but he knows if Scotland jump the Union ship, there will be a domino effect in Wales.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is not the same as supporting independencewilliamglenn said:
He keeps saying things like this:Big_G_NorthWales said:I have no idea where you get the idea labour in Wales has turned into a Nationalist party as there is no evidence I have seen for that observation and indeed Drakeford only a few days ago pledged his support for the union, and not for the first time
Wales is not Scotland and Independence is not an issue
https://twitter.com/NationCymru/status/1374413553080311816
Not sure where that would leave us. England as the largest (presumably most dominant) nation in the isles?
Point of order: Great Britain is not a 'relatively small island'. It is the 8th biggest island in the world.
If you meant 'relatively small area of the earth' s surface' - which I'm sure wad the general meaning - then fair enough.
0 -
Makes strategic sense for the USA to onshore essential manufacturing though.MaxPB said:
Completely undermines Taiwan's strategic importance to the US economy if US companies like Qualcomm, Apple and IBM can source high end silicon from Intel rather than rely on TSMC.Nigelb said:
A bit of an exaggeration.MaxPB said:Intel just fucked Taiwan. Hard.
The 7nm fabs aren't a big deal, it's just ongoing investment by Intel. The scale and allowing third parties to get 7nm at the same time as Intel is a huge surprise and it's a giant turd served up to TSMC and Taiwan.0 -
Will the by-election give a decent indication of where the opinion polls are in respect to accuracy?0
-
bigjohnowls said:
Apparently so but the phone canvassers locally are seeing no SKS improvementSunil_Prasannan said:
Corbyn was very unpopular in 2019 too...bigjohnowls said:
Have you been doing any phone canvassing?justin124 said:Brom said:
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.justin124 said:Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
Indeed - and he is well placed to do that on an issue likely to hit home far more effectively than Brexit. In 2019 Labour's vote will have been depressed by Corbyn too - a factor no longer relevant.Brom said:
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.justin124 said:Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
SKS very unpopular too apparently
Different voters different reasons same level of unpopularity I am told
May I ask where this has been happening?bigjohnowls said:
Apparently so but the phone canvassers locally are seeing no SKS improvementSunil_Prasannan said:
Corbyn was very unpopular in 2019 too...bigjohnowls said:
Have you been doing any phone canvassing?justin124 said:Brom said:
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.justin124 said:Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
Indeed - and he is well placed to do that on an issue likely to hit home far more effectively than Brexit. In 2019 Labour's vote will have been depressed by Corbyn too - a factor no longer relevant.Brom said:
Yes, and Dr Paul Williams will pitch himself as the NHS candidate.justin124 said:Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
But many might 'Vote for a bigger payrise for the nurses'.Brom said:
That is true about the polls in 2017 for Copeland. The 6k UKIP votes from 2015 largely fell to the Tories I would think.justin124 said:
Labour is far stronger in the polls than at the time of the Copeland by election in late February 2017. At the moment the polls show a pro- Labour swing of variable strength but do imply an increased Labour majority there. Brexit is 'water under the bridge' .Brom said:Am I the only one who thinks that Tories at evens is a bit of a steal in Hartlepool? Admittedly we don’t know their candidate yet but Ben Houchen will surely comfortably be re-elected Mayor on the same day and he’ll be a powerful figure on the campaign trail round those parts. You’ve got a Labour MP who’s stepped down amidst scandal, a questionable remainy candidate in Paul Williams, a PM who is relatively popular vs Starmer in the North East, an area that has seen tangible benefits from Tory rule and a lot of BXP votes up for grabs. All of this playing out against a potential backdrop of further vaccine success in May.
A 2017 style swing seen in Copeland would win the Tories the seat so it is well within the realms of possibility for an incumbent government to take it.
I didn’t think Lab would hold Peterborough in fairness in 2019 but feel this time with Hartlepool there are more negatives for Lab than positives.
This will be a fascinating early case study in where 2019 BXP votes end up in the post Brexit era.
There are over 10k votes for BXP for the Tories to feast on in Hartlepool. Brexit might be over and these people may not turn up but I can’t see those votes moving to a Labour Party who still hold stop Brexit associations in the minds of a lot of people.
SKS very unpopular too apparently
Different voters different reasons same level of unpopularity I am told0 -
No, local factors will be more important than national trends.CorrectHorseBattery said:Will the by-election give a decent indication of where the opinion polls are in respect to accuracy?
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