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Priti Patel may just have changed the Tory leadership rules and this has major betting implications

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Comments

  • justin124 said:

    I have just read on Vote UK site that the SNP MP for Airdrie & Shotts is to give up his seat to contest the same seat at Holyrood. If true , it should be an interesting by election, with Labour coming within 200 votes in 2017.

    In 2019 Neil Gray had a majority of 5,201 over Labour

    The only way Labour will have any chance is if the present SNP internal warfare affects voters plus a large conservative tactical vote
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,567

    Polite question but are you trying to downplay how serious this could be for the EU relationships not only with the UK,
    but the rest of the world.
    If, and I stress if, the reports are true, yes, there would be serious effects. However the reports I've seen, from sources I do not regard as hopelessly biased, and the interview I watched this morning, suggest that situation is being seriously overplayed by those who hate the EU.

    In that context I am reminded of the remark attributed to Rupert Murdoch when asked why his papers supported Leave. 'When I go to Downing Street they pay attention to me. When I go to Brussels they just listen politely."
    (Or something close to that.)

    And now I'm off to a cheese and wine lunch, with a mixture of British and European cheeses. Not sure yet of the provenance of the wine; quite possibly Italian, as it's very, very difficult to make a decent red wine in this climate. Although there's a vineyard in Suffolk which makes quite a passable one.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,356
    justin124 said:

    It is for voters denied their preferred candidate.
    No, that's just FPTP with fewer candidates.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,356

    If, and I stress if, the reports are true, yes, there would be serious effects. However the reports I've seen, from sources I do not regard as hopelessly biased, and the interview I watched this morning, suggest that situation is being seriously overplayed by those who hate the EU.

    In that context I am reminded of the remark attributed to Rupert Murdoch when asked why his papers supported Leave. 'When I go to Downing Street they pay attention to me. When I go to Brussels they just listen politely."
    (Or something close to that.)

    And now I'm off to a cheese and wine lunch, with a mixture of British and European cheeses. Not sure yet of the provenance of the wine; quite possibly Italian, as it's very, very difficult to make a decent red wine in this climate. Although there's a vineyard in Suffolk which makes quite a passable one.
    Did you read the UvdL interview? It was pretty clear what she was saying, and that it isn't being overblown by "those that hate the EU".
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161
    RobD said:

    How does that make it de facto AV? There are only two candidates to pick from, no one gets multiple choices etc.
    It's more accurate to say that AV and FPTP are the same when there are only two candidates.

    In a similar way STV becomes AV for by-elections when there is only one seat to be filled.

    Similar to the way in which Relativity is approximately the same as Newtonian Mechanics when speeds and gravitational field strengths are low.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    In 2019 Neil Gray had a majority of 5,201 over Labour

    The only way Labour will have any chance is if the present SNP internal warfare affects voters plus a large conservative tactical vote
    But Labour came very close in 2017 so the seat will be a key target for the party. So maybe we now have two key by elections on 6th May.
  • If, and I stress if, the reports are true, yes, there would be serious effects. However the reports I've seen, from sources I do not regard as hopelessly biased, and the interview I watched this morning, suggest that situation is being seriously overplayed by those who hate the EU.

    In that context I am reminded of the remark attributed to Rupert Murdoch when asked why his papers supported Leave. 'When I go to Downing Street they pay attention to me. When I go to Brussels they just listen politely."
    (Or something close to that.)

    And now I'm off to a cheese and wine lunch, with a mixture of British and European cheeses. Not sure yet of the provenance of the wine; quite possibly Italian, as it's very, very difficult to make a decent red wine in this climate. Although there's a vineyard in Suffolk which makes quite a passable one.
    I am not sure either the BBC or Sky hate Europe and it is the main agenda for the EU leaders meeting on Thursday

    However please enjoy your lunch and wine
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Another point about the EU arguments is that they seem to be based on UK citizens in non-vulnerable age groups being vaccinated before vulnerable groups in the EU (and we'll gloss over that many EU countries explicitly ruled out use of AZ for the (elderly) vulnerable groups for a long period). But of course the major direction of UK supplies in coming weeks will be for second doses of vulnerable groups.

    The EU seems to be arguing that the UK could halt its rollout with no major health consequences. But this is not the case with 70+ aged individuals returning for second doses to provide their ongoing protection. So this is a bit more than just disappointing 30 year olds.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,356

    It's more accurate to say that AV and FPTP are the same when there are only two candidates.

    In a similar way STV becomes AV for by-elections when there is only one seat to be filled.

    Similar to the way in which Relativity is approximately the same as Newtonian Mechanics when speeds and gravitational field strengths are low.
    Certainly, AV becomes FPTP when there are two candidates because there is no transfer.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,928
    alex_ said:

    I would like to know her economic qualifications upon which she bases that rather dramatic claim. Has she not observed that through all the iterations of the lockdown, there have some people who have been on permanent furlough, and many businesses in receipt of permanent government support to a lesser or greater degree.

    The fact that many individuals may have go used to the lower level restrictions, is hardly an indication that they are sustainable for a longer period. Might just about be able to give her masks, in theory, but nothing else.

    Just a random question - has anyone pointed out that if people took all the rules on social distancing literally, the human race could die out within a couple of generations? As it is the models for future school provision are already completed f*cked up as a result of the last year.
    If she's talking about nothing more than just wearing a mask in Tesco and trying to keep your distance from other folk when browsing, maaaaaybe if you squint you could see that being done for a while.

    If she is talking about e.g. semi-permanent limited capacity in cinemas, shops, restaurants, trains, gyms, offices etc. due to distancing, limiting the number of people you can see at a time either indoord or outdoors, etc. I think no.

    People have endured restrictions because they were told they were necessary and would not be in place for a moment more than absolutely necessary. Once you have vaccinated most of the vulnerable and the hospitals are no longer in danger of being overwhelmed then it is the path back to normal

    Too many of these public health people appear to have stopped thinking rationally about the wider picture.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited March 2021
    RobD said:

    No, that's just FPTP with fewer candidates.
    The Labour and Tory votes ended up being artificially high - and explains why both parties nationally polled 45% - nearly 50% in the 1950s.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939

    Perhaps a secondary "intensity" question would throw more light on this. For each religion are you a follower, believer or fundamentalist?

    Perhaps a how often do you practice?
    Fundamentalist is a loaded term. Which means different things between, as well as, within each religion.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    RobD said:

    Certainly, AV becomes FPTP when there are two candidates because there is no transfer.
    The transfer occurs in the voter's mind before casting the vote .
  • alex_ said:

    Still totally confused about this question of an AstraZeneca export ban from the EU. There seem to be totally conflicting reports about whether the UK are receiving AZ from the continent. Or is there some part of the bottling process or something being done over there?

    Given that the threats still seem to just about be on the basis of warnings to AZ, rather than warnings to the UK, i don't see how they can be threatening AZ with an export ban on Pfizer?!
    As I understand it the EU are threatening AZN supplies to UK and the reason Pfizer is mentioned is that in the event of such a hostile act the UK could prevent essential parts of the Pfizer vaccine being sent to Europe, thereby compromising the production of the Pfizer vaccine in Europe

    However, if I have misunderstood this reasoning I am happy to be corrected
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161
    Leon said:

    Quite possibly true.

    In a few years we may realise that the UK-in-the-EU was the keystone holding the entire edifice together. The crucial link in a chain, with opposing forces at either end

    The chain perhaps snapped, as we left. Now Europe moves closer to Russia, under German leadership. The Anglosphere builds its own barricades

    The whole process accelerated greatly by Covid
    The government's Integrated Review has identified Russia as the single greatest direct threat to British security and you are suggesting that Brexit will lead to a massive setback to our security as we watch the EU forge a closer relationship with Russia.

    Shouldn't we find a way to avoid this calamitous geopolitical defeat?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,356
    justin124 said:

    The transfer occurs in the voter's mind before casting the vote .
    As happens in an FPTP election with three candidates, or four, or five.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,784

    If, and I stress if, the reports are true, yes, there would be serious effects. However the reports I've seen, from sources I do not regard as hopelessly biased, and the interview I watched this morning, suggest that situation is being seriously overplayed by those who hate the EU.

    In that context I am reminded of the remark attributed to Rupert Murdoch when asked why his papers supported Leave. 'When I go to Downing Street they pay attention to me. When I go to Brussels they just listen politely."
    (Or something close to that.)

    And now I'm off to a cheese and wine lunch, with a mixture of British and European cheeses. Not sure yet of the provenance of the wine; quite possibly Italian, as it's very, very difficult to make a decent red wine in this climate. Although there's a vineyard in Suffolk which makes quite a passable one.
    You haven't understood the profundity of what Rupe was saying. It's a clever way of expressing the truth that the UK is a proper democracy, so the government HAS to listen to the media, as one voice of the people (along witn others). Not least because the people can boot them all out at the next election

    Brussels bureaucrats and commissioners have no such democratic worries, so they can and will cheerfully ignore the media, as they ignore the voters.

    Agree with you on UK red wine, very hard to find decent stuff still. Possibly one in the Isle of Wight?

    However, we now make excellent fizz. I had a rose classic cuvee from Nyetimber the other day. Absolutely superb. As good as vintage champagne twice or thrice the price
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    I am still awaiting a Census form!
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    If she's talking about nothing more than just wearing a mask in Tesco and trying to keep your distance from other folk when browsing, maaaaaybe if you squint you could see that being done for a while.

    If she is talking about e.g. semi-permanent limited capacity in cinemas, shops, restaurants, trains, gyms, offices etc. due to distancing, limiting the number of people you can see at a time either indoord or outdoors, etc. I think no.

    People have endured restrictions because they were told they were necessary and would not be in place for a moment more than absolutely necessary. Once you have vaccinated most of the vulnerable and the hospitals are no longer in danger of being overwhelmed then it is the path back to normal

    Too many of these public health people appear to have stopped thinking rationally about the wider picture.
    Also the slightly confused issue is that when eg. Whitty is questioned about this in Parliament (eg. trying to explore when the Govt hasn't allegedly followed SAGE recommendations) he always says he is only there to advise on the science of combatting the pandemic, but there are a wide range of other considerations that the politicians have to take in before deciding what to do. And yet we have scientists all over the media generating major headlines effectively saying that the politicians have no choice and will have to follow "the science".
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939
    Christian is a pretty broad category, with a vast range of meanings, when you think about it.
  • justin124 said:

    I am still awaiting a Census form!

    Do it online today then
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,179
    Dura_Ace said:

    I threw my census form in the bin. I highly doubt the £1,000 fine threatened by the 'compliance team' will ever materialise.

    They will still find you. According to that Register article on the MoD telling people to lie leave things out on the census, our CIA and KGB enemies can easily fish out people like you by checking vetting status on Linkedin. Once lockdown ends, you'll be drowning in honeytraps.
    https://www.theregister.com/2021/03/19/ministry_defence_tells_staff_dont_answer_census/
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited March 2021

    As I understand it the EU are threatening AZN supplies to UK and the reason Pfizer is mentioned is that in the event of such a hostile act the UK could prevent essential parts of the Pfizer vaccine being sent to Europe, thereby compromising the production of the Pfizer vaccine in Europe

    However, if I have misunderstood this reasoning I am happy to be corrected
    That doesn't answer the question though as to whether AZN actually are exportingfrom the EU to the UK. And if Pfizer isn't prevented from exporting, i don't see why the UK would prevent export of ingredients to Pfizer. As that would disrupt our supply of Pfizer, presumably, as well as everyone else's.

    I thought the issue with exporting ingredients to Pfizer only came up if Pfizer were prevented from exporting to us.

    The UK position throughout is that the movement of vaccine is an issue for companies and respecting contracts that countries have with those companies (hence "the UK haven't banned AZN vaccine exports") i can't see us interrupting the Pfizer supply chain (from which we benefit) because of a disruption in the supply chain of a different company. What is making the EU mad is that they haven't signed very good contracts.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Do it online today then
    No - if the Government wants this data , it can provide the form as has been the case in the past. Apparently in Wales households have been sent them. The onus should not be on the individual to be proactive in carrying out this survey.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,260
    dixiedean said:

    Perhaps a how often do you practice?
    Fundamentalist is a loaded term. Which means different things between, as well as, within each religion.
    It is a loaded term for a reason though. If someone goes to the church, mosque, temple, or synagogue daily or once a year doesnt make any difference to the rest of society.

    If someone believes in a religion to the extent that its values trump societies values, and it should be aggressively spread to non believers, they start to become a danger to that society.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,981
    edited March 2021
    Dura_Ace said:

    I threw my census form in the bin. I highly doubt the £1,000 fine threatened by the 'compliance team' will ever materialise.

    Careful. I worked as a census enumerator in Windsor in 2001. Even the Queen got fingered. (She and the Duke falsely claimed they resided in the housekeeper's lodge, not Buck House as agreed.)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,356
    justin124 said:

    No - if the Government wants this data , it can provide the form as has been the case in the past. Apparently in Wales households have been sent them. The onus should not be on the individual to be proactive in carrying out this survey.
    What a contrarian. Just request the paper form if it bothers you that much.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited March 2021
    RobD said:

    What a contrarian. Just request the paper form if it bothers you that much.
    You've misunderstood. It's the paper form he's waiting for!

    (you can't even do it online without the initial communication - it contains the access code linked to your property)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,356
    edited March 2021
    alex_ said:

    You've misunderstood. It's the paper form he's waiting for!

    (you can't even do it online without the initial communication - it contains the access code linked to your property)


    Given he is complaining about being proactive are you sure he's requested it?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    RobD said:

    Given he is complaining about being proactive are you sure he's requested it?
    Fair point - but i was assuming he wasn't being totally dense.
  • alex_ said:

    That doesn't answer the question though as to whether AZN actually are exporting to the EU. And if Pfizer isn't prevented from exporting, i don't see why the UK would prevent export of ingredients to Pfizer. As that would disrupt our supply of Pfizer, presumably, as well as everyone else's.

    I thought the issue with exporting ingredients to Pfizer only came up if Pfizer were prevented from exporting to us.

    The UK position throughout is that the movement of vaccine is an issue for companies and respecting contracts that countries have with those companies (hence "the UK haven't banned AZN vaccine exports") i can't see us interrupting the Pfizer supply chain (from which we benefit) because of a disruption in the supply chain of a different company. What is making the EU mad is that they haven't signed very good contracts.
    In truth the UK were quicker, invested billions, secured varied supplies, and frankly entered into international contracts with suppliers far earlier resulting in our success.

    The EU who have frankly failed their citizens and are now scrapping the barrel to try to deflect from the truth of their failure to protect lives, every governments first responsibility

    And nobody will resign over this nor can the citizens vote the commission out
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,661

    Useful for those who change their mind between rounds - I wonder what percentage of the electorate that is.
    Calling the Exhaustive Ballot "Quasi-AV" is a bit like calling TSE a "Quasi-Man U Fan" "Quasi-Everton Fan"!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,784
    alex_ said:

    You've misunderstood. It's the paper form he's waiting for!

    (you can't even do it online without the initial communication - it contains the access code linked to your property)
    You can do it online IMMEDIATELY, you can ask for the access code to be texted to your phone. I just did. Never got the letter

    All in all, it took 5 minutes. Impressive
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047

    As I understand it the EU are threatening AZN supplies to UK and the reason Pfizer is mentioned is that in the event of such a hostile act the UK could prevent essential parts of the Pfizer vaccine being sent to Europe, thereby compromising the production of the Pfizer vaccine in Europe

    However, if I have misunderstood this reasoning I am happy to be corrected
    Just run an aircraft carrier or two thirteen miles away from the EU coast. They'll get the message.
  • justin124 said:

    No - if the Government wants this data , it can provide the form as has been the case in the past. Apparently in Wales households have been sent them. The onus should not be on the individual to be proactive in carrying out this survey.
    That is your decision then
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,106
    Leon said:

    What are the "19m doses" the articles talk about. Is that Pfizer?

    I am less sanguine than you. The EU has gone postal, and I really CAN see them marching into Belgium (the Germans are good at this) and seizing the Pfizer factories.
    Quite simply - the way the EU act is a result of its structural insecurity. It constantly has to justify its existence - hence why when a crisis hits, things quickly go pear shaped and they look to “lash out”
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,356
    edited March 2021
    Leon said:

    You can do it online IMMEDIATELY, you can ask for the access code to be texted to your phone. I just did. Never got the letter

    All in all, it took 5 minutes. Impressive
    There is literally no reason not to do it online if you have that choice. Doing it online or sending it by post and having a clerk enter it into the computer results in the data being input into exactly the same computer system.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    alex_ said:

    You've misunderstood. It's the paper form he's waiting for!

    (you can't even do it online without the initial communication - it contains the access code linked to your property)
    Its very easy to get a new access code:

    https://census.gov.uk/en/request/access-code/enter-address/
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,796

    That is your decision then
    I can understand a refusal to do it.....thats consistent.

    I can understand demanding a paper form if you dont have net access thats consistent

    I cant understand the view of someone who has access to more than one format to specify they will do it only if it comes in the format they choose.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    alex_ said:

    Fair point - but i was assuming he wasn't being totally dense.
    You misunderstand. I am waiting for the form to land on my doormat - as in the past. Why should I go to the trouble of going online or calling their Freephone line? If they want the data, they can send me the form and I will complete it. Beyond that, I am not really bothered whether it arrives or not.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,356
    JonathanD said:

    Its very easy to get a new access code:

    https://census.gov.uk/en/request/access-code/enter-address/
    Filling out a form online? Too proactive.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,507
    justin124 said:

    But Labour came very close in 2017 so the seat will be a key target for the party. So maybe we now have two key by elections on 6th May.
    Oooh what fun.

    There has to be something to give political junkies something to obsess about during mid-term.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,356
    justin124 said:

    You misunderstand. I am waiting for the form to land on my doormat - as in the past. Why should I go to the trouble of going online or calling their Freephone line? If they want the data, they can send me the form and I will complete it. Beyond that, I am not really bothered whether it arrives or not.
    Contrarian, like I said. Your position is ridiculous.
  • I said this yesterday but am going to repeat it

    With the Sturgeon fiasco and the EU with its individual leaders committing 'hari kari', Boris looks the sane one
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Leon said:

    You can do it online IMMEDIATELY, you can ask for the access code to be texted to your phone. I just did. Never got the letter

    All in all, it took 5 minutes. Impressive
    OK fair enough.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,784
    justin124 said:

    You misunderstand. I am waiting for the form to land on my doormat - as in the past. Why should I go to the trouble of going online or calling their Freephone line? If they want the data, they can send me the form and I will complete it. Beyond that, I am not really bothered whether it arrives or not.
    How utterly pathetic and childish, when doing it online is easier and quicker and saves on paper.

    In the 1820s, did you make stentorian demands that your census form arrive by liveried messenger, written with quill and ink, as that is how it was always done in the past?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,334
    Reasonably snappy one liner (please address all bleating about whataboutery to BBC Scotland).

    https://twitter.com/PhantomPower14/status/1373619199671734272?s=20
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,507
    edited March 2021
    Leon said:

    We will join it, but it won't be at an easy distance. It will hurt us, the way it is already hurting Australia


    https://www.ft.com/content/b3b77c27-329e-41ac-be6b-f7cc1436177d
    The UK has a big deficit with China while Australia has a surplus, and China trade is a smaller part of our GDP anyway. So I'm not sure that's right. If they could do anything against us they would have over the HK citizens. They threatened it, but have done nothing.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Fishing said:

    Oooh what fun.

    There has to be something to give political junkies something to obsess about during mid-term.
    Still a bit too early for midterm.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939

    It is a loaded term for a reason though. If someone goes to the church, mosque, temple, or synagogue daily or once a year doesnt make any difference to the rest of society.

    If someone believes in a religion to the extent that its values trump societies values, and it should be aggressively spread to non believers, they start to become a danger to that society.
    You prove my point though. You can be a fundamentalist and share none of those traits.
    An ultra Orthodox Jew positively eschews conversion of any kind. A fundamental Quaker (arguably all Christians) would be a pacifist. Almost all would argue that their values trump societies values. Catholics sure do.
    This does not necessarily make them a threat.
    So, what does "fundamentalist" mean?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    justin124 said:

    You misunderstand. I am waiting for the form to land on my doormat - as in the past. Why should I go to the trouble of going online or calling their Freephone line? If they want the data, they can send me the form and I will complete it. Beyond that, I am not really bothered whether it arrives or not.
    So you basically haven't asked for the form? Is there any other activity that has now gone fully online (except where as small number of people are asked to pro-actively request alternatives) because the authorities don't think living permanently in the last century is a good use of time or resources, which you "refuse to do" out of damn stubborness?

    So you think that rather than pursue the enormous cost savings from making this a primarily online survey (a paper form has a cost of being mailed out, a cost of being returned, and then a further cost of entering the information completed onto a central database - all with the additional complication of people not making their answers clear in line with the given instructions), the government should be carrying on as they have always done it?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,784
    Fishing said:

    The UK has a big deficit with China while Australia has a surplus, and China trade is a smaller part of our GDP anyway. So I'm not sure that's right.
    Yes maybe. But China is now so powerful they could make our lives less comfortable in ways other than trade.

    Hopefully, if the West - or at least the English speaking West - unites into a common position, China will realise it is dealing with an enemy easily of equal size (esp if we can get India on board as well) and see the sense of compromise rather than confrontation

    This is another area where the CANZUK concept actually makes sense
  • TresTres Posts: 2,819
    justin124 said:

    You misunderstand. I am waiting for the form to land on my doormat - as in the past. Why should I go to the trouble of going online or calling their Freephone line? If they want the data, they can send me the form and I will complete it. Beyond that, I am not really bothered whether it arrives or not.
    There's a pandemic going on. Having thousands of volunteers going around knocking in doors with paper forms isn't happening this time.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180

    I said this yesterday but am going to repeat it

    With the Sturgeon fiasco and the EU with its individual leaders committing 'hari kari', Boris looks the sane one

    O wad some Pow'r the giftie gie us
    To see oursels as ithers see us!
    It wad frae mony a blunder free us,
    An' foolish notion:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,567
    RobD said:

    Contrarian, like I said. Your position is ridiculous.
    Ydoethur was going to take the same position I believe, if it had not arrived in time.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    MaxPB said:

    Once again, there are no AZ exports from the EU to the UK. The EU has an export check mechanism and in the time it has been running neither the Belgian nor Dutch factories have exported AZ drug substance to the UK. Ursula is literally repeating a whole load of falsehoods about "EU exports to the UK" in regards to AZ currently. Just as the Charles Michel lied about the UK blocking exports of vaccines and precursor materials and the commission continues to say.

    The whole EU "case" against Britain or AZ is political theatre for a domestic audience who are becoming increasingly impatient looking at the US and UK vaccine successes. They're rightly asking the question as to why the EU has bungled the contracts so badly and how it was possible for brexit Britain to prosper outside of the EU in this manner. The commission has no answers so is lying and obfuscating.

    As I've pointed out on many occasions, there exists no mechanism for the EU to block anything, it is up to the individual nations as Belgium isn't going to do it and they can't be forced into doing it either.
    Aren't they going to look a bit stupid announcing an EU export ban on AstraZeneca when it results in zero disruption to the AZ vaccine supply?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,507
    Leon said:

    Yes maybe. But China is now so powerful they could make our lives less comfortable in ways other than trade.

    Hopefully, if the West - or at least the English speaking West - unites into a common position, China will realise it is dealing with an enemy easily of equal size (esp if we can get India on board as well) and see the sense of compromise rather than confrontation

    This is another area where the CANZUK concept actually makes sense
    I quite agree, particularly if it includes the US, which would obviously hugely strengthen it in dealing with China, and maybe Japan as well.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,661
    edited March 2021
    RobD said:

    Filling out a form online? Too proactive.
    Half an hour tops for the household questions, then my and my mum's personal stuff.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,356
    kle4 said:

    Ydoethur was going to take the same position I believe, if it had not arrived in time.
    Implying they had gone to the extraordinary effort of requesting a paper form. No problem with that. The position that someone refuses to even request one because the government should have sent them one in the first place is, as noted previously, childish.
  • alex_ said:

    Aren't they going to look a bit stupid announcing an EU export ban on AstraZeneca when it results in zero disruption to the AZ vaccine supply?
    Yes but it makes them feel good about themselves and no matter the damage to their reputation
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    alex_ said:

    So you basically haven't asked for the form? Is there any other activity that has now gone fully online (except where as small number of people are asked to pro-actively request alternatives) because the authorities don't think living permanently in the last century is a good use of time or resources, which you "refuse to do" out of damn stubborness?

    So you think that rather than pursue the enormous cost savings from making this a primarily online survey (a paper form has a cost of being mailed out, a cost of being returned, and then a further cost of entering the information completed onto a central database - all with the additional complication of people not making their answers clear in line with the given instructions), the government should be carrying on as they have always done it?
    I do indeed. I decide whether and/or when to use my PC. Ditto my telephone. I object to the authorities presuming that people wish to use their own resources in the way they so direct.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,507
    justin124 said:

    Still a bit too early for midterm.
    Semantics, but my definition of midterm is after the honeymoon but before the pre-election giveaways. I think Boris's honeymoon ended last autumn when people were talking about whether he'd even want to do a full term.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,796
    alex_ said:

    Aren't they going to look a bit stupid announcing an EU export ban on AstraZeneca when it results in zero disruption to the AZ vaccine supply?
    You make the assumption they are thinking rather the reacting. They have looked ahead and seen the uk moving back to normal over the next couple of months as eu countries slide into lockdown and are panicking about how their citizens are going to react
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Tres said:

    There's a pandemic going on. Having thousands of volunteers going around knocking in doors with paper forms isn't happening this time.
    Ok - then post it to me as apparently happened in Wales!
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,507
    justin124 said:

    I do indeed. I decide whether and/or when to use my PC. Ditto my telephone....
    But not, apparently, your pen, ink and saliva?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,356
    justin124 said:

    Ok - then post it to me as apparently happened in Wales!
    You have to request that online.

    Here's the link - https://census.gov.uk/en/request/paper-questionnaire/enter-address/
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Fenman said:

    Just run an aircraft carrier or two thirteen miles away from the EU coast. They'll get the message.
    The message that

    we will blockade all trade?

    Invade Europe?

    But But But

    The German Car Manufacturers

    All the Cards

    Worldwide Trade Deals

    FFS listen to yourself

    They dont like it up em!!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,784
    justin124 said:

    I do indeed. I decide whether and/or when to use my PC. Ditto my telephone. I object to the authorities presuming that people wish to use their own resources in the way they so direct.
    "Use their own resources" - you mean, like your fingers and a pen, which you would use to do the paper form, or your fingers and some laptop keys, with which you do the form online? Also your legs, for taking the paper form to the post, or for, er, sitting down at a desk. And your arse. You use your arse there too.

    How DARE the government ask you to use your arse for sitting down
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536
    RobD said:

    Implying they had gone to the extraordinary effort of requesting a paper form. No problem with that. The position that someone refuses to even request one because the government should have sent them one in the first place is, as noted previously, childish.
    I can imagine the ONS thought long and hard about how many forms to print. We sent one to every household in March 2011 and the printing began in November 2010.

    I wonder if they did a trial of some sort? Problem is, you can’t recreate the conditions of the Census when it’s being talked about a lot.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,533
    The EU vaccine mess will be our mess too, if the euro implodes as result of the failure to vaccinate and get out of economic lockdowns says Halligan:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/03/21/eus-vaccine-mess-sadly/
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Fishing said:

    Semantics, but my definition of midterm is after the honeymoon but before the pre-election giveaways. I think Boris's honeymoon ended last autumn when people were talking about whether he'd even want to do a full term.
    To an extent it can be argued that the Pandemic has delayed midterm in that normal party politics has been in abeyance for such an extended period. To my mind , next Autumn - at the earliest - might be said to represent the beginning of midterm. May 6th ,however, is less than 17 months from the last GE.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309
    Calling all Leavers and non-Remoaner Remainers - if you want a book recommendation I can thoroughly recommend Robert Tombs: This Sovereign Isle - Britain in and out of Europe.

    It's a bestseller, has rave reviews and is only 162 pages so you can get through it in a couple of evenings.

    It's bang up to date too (even has Covid-19 covered in it) and has some fascinating insight and analysis. Very very good, even if you don't agree with all of it.

    Go buy.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,533
    Pagan2 said:

    You make the assumption they are thinking rather the reacting. They have looked ahead and seen the uk moving back to normal over the next couple of months as eu countries slide into lockdown and are panicking about how their citizens are going to react
    a lot of the citizens arent too bothered presumably as they consider the vaccines unsafe.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,735
    edited March 2021
    justin124 said:

    I do indeed. I decide whether and/or when to use my PC. Ditto my telephone. I object to the authorities presuming that people wish to use their own resources in the way they so direct.
    In which case you are and I'm being blunt, a complete idiot.

    Allowing people to enter the details on the form themselves saves £1s per an individual even before you look at the quality issues created doing transcribing.

    Personally I prefer doing everything on line if it's a paper form I need to manually write on I wish the person at the far end luck reading my handwriting as I rarely write anything these days and my handwriting is now beyond a doctors.

  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    RobD said:

    You have to request that online.

    Here's the link - https://census.gov.uk/en/request/paper-questionnaire/enter-address/
    I am fully aware of the link thanks. In Wales, forms have been sent without having been requested.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309
    Leon said:

    Yes maybe. But China is now so powerful they could make our lives less comfortable in ways other than trade.

    Hopefully, if the West - or at least the English speaking West - unites into a common position, China will realise it is dealing with an enemy easily of equal size (esp if we can get India on board as well) and see the sense of compromise rather than confrontation

    This is another area where the CANZUK concept actually makes sense
    The Wokeness could tear CANZUK apart at birth. The statues of Victoria, the common institutions, the monarchy etc. All "racist" and "imperial oppression".. you know the drill.

    It's why Russia and China fund it. And it gets results.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,796

    The EU vaccine mess will be our mess too, if the euro implodes as result of the failure to vaccinate and get out of economic lockdowns says Halligan:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/03/21/eus-vaccine-mess-sadly/

    The euro was always going to implode though unless they go for monetary union. The question becomes then whether we are more damaged by it imploding inside or outside the eu. Personally I would argue that being inside the eu would be more damaging purely because being outside we as we see already pursuing other trade avenues.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,356
    justin124 said:

    I am fully aware of the link thanks. In Wales, forms have been sent without having been requested.
    And in England they haven't been, so you have to request it.

    I think all you need is your address. Are you really that stubborn that you won't even enter your address to request a form? There's a phone number also, or is that too modern for you also?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,260
    dixiedean said:

    You prove my point though. You can be a fundamentalist and share none of those traits.
    An ultra Orthodox Jew positively eschews conversion of any kind. A fundamental Quaker (arguably all Christians) would be a pacifist. Almost all would argue that their values trump societies values. Catholics sure do.
    This does not necessarily make them a threat.
    So, what does "fundamentalist" mean?
    Belief in a strict and literal interpretation of religion.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180

    The EU vaccine mess will be our mess too, if the euro implodes as result of the failure to vaccinate and get out of economic lockdowns says Halligan:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/03/21/eus-vaccine-mess-sadly/

    I think that this can be exaggerated. They will be 3-4 months behind us, 6 maximum. That means low hundreds of thousand extra deaths across the EU and probably another quarter in recession, maybe a little more. In the longer term that will not be that significant and I don't see any great pressure on the Euro atm, unlike in 2008.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,796

    a lot of the citizens arent too bothered presumably as they consider the vaccines unsafe.
    They will be bothered however if curfews are imposed, shops and restaurants etc are closed on the continent yet we are almost fully open
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,821

    The Wokeness could tear CANZUK apart at birth. The statues of Victoria, the common institutions, the monarchy etc. All "racist" and "imperial oppression".. you know the drill.

    It's why Russia and China fund it. And it gets results.
    Yup, there's a meme I remember with the US and USSR playing chess with the US winning on the board and the Soviet Union winning in the US's mind. The communists won the culture war, they infected western people with self doubt over our history when there shouldn't be any.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,107
    edited March 2021
    Leon said:

    You haven't understood the profundity of what Rupe was saying. It's a clever way of expressing the truth that the UK is a proper democracy, so the government HAS to listen to the media, as one voice of the people (along witn others). Not least because the people can boot them all out at the next election

    Brussels bureaucrats and commissioners have no such democratic worries, so they can and will cheerfully ignore the media, as they ignore the voters.

    Agree with you on UK red wine, very hard to find decent stuff still. Possibly one in the Isle of Wight?

    However, we now make excellent fizz. I had a rose classic cuvee from Nyetimber the other day. Absolutely superb. As good as vintage champagne twice or thrice the price
    I was speaking to the guy who owns the island’s principal vineyard a few years back. He gave me their red to taste, and I said I didn’t think it was very good. To my surprise he agreed, and said that if they didn’t make a reasonable one from that year’s harvest (conditions were apparently perfect that year) then he’d think about giving up on the reds altogether. As it was, they were using varietals that, as is often the case in the UK, I’d never heard of because no-one in Europe wants (more correctly, needs) to grow them.

    The less said about the island’s other vineyard, the better.

    It’ll be some time before global warming allows us to make half decent Pinot Noir.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    RobD said:

    And in England they haven't been, so you have to request it.

    I think all you need is your address. Are you really that stubborn that you won't even enter your address to request a form? There's a phone number also, or is that too modern for you also?
    I am going to sit tight and wait. It will be interesting to see how long it takes for a form to arrive - if it ever does.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180
    On our walk this morning we passed a house which had a big "two votes for SNP" banner on it. It made me reflect that this message hints at some lack of confidence. A confident SNP expected to scoop up so many constituency seats that it was much smarter and more effective to vote for the Greens on the list to maximise the independence majority in Parliament. That is why we are where we are. This campaign for 2 votes for SNP suggests that they are worried the constituencies will not be quite the same procession as the last time.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,107

    Calling all Leavers and non-Remoaner Remainers - if you want a book recommendation I can thoroughly recommend Robert Tombs: This Sovereign Isle - Britain in and out of Europe.

    It's a bestseller, has rave reviews and is only 162 pages so you can get through it in a couple of evenings.

    It's bang up to date too (even has Covid-19 covered in it) and has some fascinating insight and analysis. Very very good, even if you don't agree with all of it.

    Go buy.

    He is notorious for being rabidly pro-Brexit, so hardly a neutral source.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,356
    justin124 said:

    I am going to sit tight and wait. It will be interesting to see how long it takes for a form to arrive - if it ever does.
    Utterly pathetic.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,821
    DavidL said:

    I think that this can be exaggerated. They will be 3-4 months behind us, 6 maximum. That means low hundreds of thousand extra deaths across the EU and probably another quarter in recession, maybe a little more. In the longer term that will not be that significant and I don't see any great pressure on the Euro atm, unlike in 2008.
    I think the ECB is running out of monetary firepower, that's the issue that no one wants to address. The Fed and the BoE still have some chambers loaded and some ammunition left, the ECB has already fired all of its shots, it's already got negative overnight rates, it's already got 60% of EMU GDP on its balance sheet, it's already got direct bank bond buying schemes, it's already used traditional and non-traditional monetary measures and the EMU economy still looks shite.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    The EU vaccine mess will be our mess too, if the euro implodes as result of the failure to vaccinate and get out of economic lockdowns says Halligan:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/03/21/eus-vaccine-mess-sadly/

    Greece and the rest of the PIIGS were meant to blow the EU apart but didn't. A delay of 3 months in vaccinating their population will not cause the death of the EU either. The Telegraph is simply not a reliable reporter on EU matters.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,661
    justin124 said:

    I am going to sit tight and wait. It will be interesting to see how long it takes for a form to arrive - if it ever does.
    £10000 fine incoming :lol:
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,204
    Pagan2 said:

    You make the assumption they are thinking rather the reacting. They have looked ahead and seen the uk moving back to normal over the next couple of months as eu countries slide into lockdown and are panicking about how their citizens are going to react
    1. We must do something
    2. This is something
    3. Therefore, we must do this.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politician's_syllogism
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,821
    alex_ said:

    Aren't they going to look a bit stupid announcing an EU export ban on AstraZeneca when it results in zero disruption to the AZ vaccine supply?
    I don't think they're thinking that far ahead. They're worrying about tomorrow's headlines, the German federal election, keeping Söder out of the chancellor's office. That's what matters to the EU right now.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Pagan2 said:

    The euro was always going to implode though unless they go for monetary union. The question becomes then whether we are more damaged by it imploding inside or outside the eu. Personally I would argue that being inside the eu would be more damaging purely because being outside we as we see already pursuing other trade avenues.
    Also we won't be on the hook for whatever 'cohesion' funds - state transfers - the EU will have to institute as part of the fall out.
This discussion has been closed.