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Priti Patel may just have changed the Tory leadership rules and this has major betting implications

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  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,450
    Dura_Ace said:

    I threw my census form in the bin. I highly doubt the £1,000 fine threatened by the 'compliance team' will ever materialise.

    My grandparents, in S. Wales, appear to have done the same in 1911. I've spent hours looking the b*&^%y record.
    I suspect their excuse would be that my grandmother was heavily pregnant and there were complications. Not good in a mining community, although my father wasn't born for another month.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677


    If they do it, we should never forget. I, for one, would overnight cease having any interest in protecting their frontier from Russia with British boots on the ground, for example.

    That would mean withdrawing from NATO.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,376
    There's now a much bigger correlation between religious faith and voting intention than between social class and voting intention.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    edited March 2021

    Leon said:

    Floater said:
    That will kill British people. We need to retaliate so it kills some of them, as well
    Good luck with your war
    It is not impossible now. I could see a modest skirmish or two, as we send in choppers to grab our jabs, escorted by the SAS

    Incidentally, if the EU does illegally snatch our vaccines, thus causing many deaths in the UK, I don't see how this can be viewed as anything but a warlike act. A hostile unlawful and unprovoked outrage, which kills us in our thousands. It's Pearl Harbor without planes
  • TresTres Posts: 2,702
    Dura_Ace said:

    I threw my census form in the bin. I highly doubt the £1,000 fine threatened by the 'compliance team' will ever materialise.

    Minus 1 for generation snowflake.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,355

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    The “post-Christian era” in the UK will be cemented by data emerging from Sunday’s census which is expected to show further generational disengagement from organised religion, according to a leading academic.

    The once-a-decade snapshot of the country has included a voluntary question about religion since 2001. In 2011, returns across England and Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland showed 59.3% ticking Christianity, a fall from 71.6% a decade earlier.

    Abby Day, professor of race, faith and culture at Goldsmiths, University of London, expects this year’s census to show a further erosion in Christian identity, mainly because postwar generations regard the church as irrelevant and immoral.

    Day predicted the proportion of people ticking Christianity “could drop below 50%”. Peter Brierley, an expert on religion statistics, said he predicted 48% or 49% identifying as Christian, but David Voas, head of the social sciences department at University College London, said he would be surprised if the figure fell below 50%

    I would expect Christian to still be ahead of No religion though.

    The question did not ask 'are you religious?' when I did the census yesterday, it asked 'what is your religion?' ie No religion, Christian (no denomination breakdown so Catholics and evangelicals will boost the figure compared to what the C of E would have got), Buddhist, Hindu, Jewish, Muslim, Sikh, any other religion?
    I know people who aren't Christians, but write down Christian on the form because they can't stand organisations like the National Secular Society.
    I put CofE because I go a couple of times a year (harvest, Easter and Christmas) and I wouldn't want to give succour to anti-disestabishmentarians, ultra-liberal progressives and republicans, which it otherwise most certainly would and potentially influence public policy accordingly.
    You've just convinced me not to put CofE.
    I doubt that but when it comes to religion people certainly play with it.
    The idea of simply responding on the basis of what religion or none that you believe clearly being too straightforward for you?
    I am a cultural Christian. I go a handful of times a year and do christenings, weddings and funerals in church. I am not a regular Sunday worshipper, but few people are, and CofE is a far better way of describing my identity than putting I'm an atheist.

    I think there are millions like me.
    Having an interest in steam engines, test cricket, and real ale is a stronger predictor of being CofE in this country that any belief in God.
    Indeed. In fact, IIRC, Sentamu was considered unsuitable for Canterbury because of his excessive interest in religion.

    Sir Humphrey: "Bishops tend to have long lives. Apparently the Lord isn't all that keen to let them join him."
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    The “post-Christian era” in the UK will be cemented by data emerging from Sunday’s census which is expected to show further generational disengagement from organised religion, according to a leading academic.

    The once-a-decade snapshot of the country has included a voluntary question about religion since 2001. In 2011, returns across England and Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland showed 59.3% ticking Christianity, a fall from 71.6% a decade earlier.

    Abby Day, professor of race, faith and culture at Goldsmiths, University of London, expects this year’s census to show a further erosion in Christian identity, mainly because postwar generations regard the church as irrelevant and immoral.

    Day predicted the proportion of people ticking Christianity “could drop below 50%”. Peter Brierley, an expert on religion statistics, said he predicted 48% or 49% identifying as Christian, but David Voas, head of the social sciences department at University College London, said he would be surprised if the figure fell below 50%

    I would expect Christian to still be ahead of No religion though.

    The question did not ask 'are you religious?' when I did the census yesterday, it asked 'what is your religion?' ie No religion, Christian (no denomination breakdown so Catholics and evangelicals will boost the figure compared to what the C of E would have got), Buddhist, Hindu, Jewish, Muslim, Sikh, any other religion?
    I know people who aren't Christians, but write down Christian on the form because they can't stand organisations like the National Secular Society.
    I put CofE because I go a couple of times a year (harvest, Easter and Christmas) and I wouldn't want to give succour to anti-disestabishmentarians, ultra-liberal progressives and republicans, which it otherwise most certainly would and potentially influence public policy accordingly.
    You've just convinced me not to put CofE.
    I doubt that but when it comes to religion people certainly play with it.
    The idea of simply responding on the basis of what religion or none that you believe clearly being too straightforward for you?
    I am a cultural Christian. I go a handful of times a year and do christenings, weddings and funerals in church. I am not a regular Sunday worshipper, but few people are, and CofE is a far better way of describing my identity than putting I'm an atheist.

    I think there are millions like me.
    Having an interest in steam engines, test cricket, and real ale is a stronger predictor of being CofE in this country that any belief in God.
    No comment.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,355
    Leon said:

    Floater said:
    That will kill British people. We need to retaliate so it kills some of them, as well
    No, we should not.

    We should retaliate in a way that harms only economic interests, is clever and funny.

    I am too savage a person to come up with something.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    Dura_Ace said:


    If they do it, we should never forget. I, for one, would overnight cease having any interest in protecting their frontier from Russia with British boots on the ground, for example.

    That would mean withdrawing from NATO.
    Yes, it would. When I’d cooled down I might decide that was an overreaction this time, but in the medium term, if this is how our relationship is now, I think we’re going to start asking whether we much care about continental European security.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Floater said:
    That will kill British people. We need to retaliate so it kills some of them, as well
    Good luck with your war
    It is not impossible now. I could see a modest skirmish or two, as we fly in planes to grab our jabs, escorted by the SAS

    Incidentally, if the EU does illegally snatch our vaccines, thus causing many deaths in the UK, I don't see how this can be viewed as anything but a warlike act. A hostile unlawful and unprovoked outrage, which kills us in our thousands. It's Pearl Harbor without planes
    Boris with his penchant for flags has a bulk order of white ones.

    Let's hope they are British made or we are stuffed!!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    Dura_Ace said:


    If they do it, we should never forget. I, for one, would overnight cease having any interest in protecting their frontier from Russia with British boots on the ground, for example.

    That would mean withdrawing from NATO.
    Or, splitting NATO. I doubt the Americans will look kindly on the EU seizing vaccines made by an American company.

    NATO would split into its Anglophone and European elements. Turkey would finally say goodbye. The end of the Western Alliance
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    Sean_F said:

    There's now a much bigger correlation between religious faith and voting intention than between social class and voting intention.

    In the long-term I expect to see a lot of aspirational Black voters move to the Conservatives for those reasons, particularly where they live outside major metropolitan conurbations.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,450
    Observer says that 'Wales sets up its own Erasmus programme. The Exchange scheme will ‘fill the gaps’ left by Boris Johnson’s Turing programme, which ‘lacks key benefits’

    Pulling out of Erasmus appears to be pure pique, coupled with a failure to negotiate sensibly.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    Again, I'm going to point this out. The AZ supply chain in the UK isn't dependent on the EU. Their threat to block AZ exports to the UK is completely empty, UK AZ vaccine substance is supplied by Cobra Biologics and Oxford Biomedica and they are filled and finished by Wockhart in Wales.

    We also have importation of finished vaccine from the Serum Institute of India.

    Initially around 10m doses of drug substance was shipped from Halix in the Netherlands as the UK supply hadn't fully ramped up. It has now and we don't import from Halix now, it has dropped out of the UK supply chain since around the end of January.

    I think both sides know this and the EU can claim "victory" over nasty brexit Britain and really it makes no difference to anything we're doing.

    Blocking Pfizer exports now looks to be completely off the table after the call between Boris and the Belgian PM and the EU rhetoric reflects that as they've moved onto blocking non-existant AZ exports to the UK.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,450

    Dura_Ace said:


    If they do it, we should never forget. I, for one, would overnight cease having any interest in protecting their frontier from Russia with British boots on the ground, for example.

    That would mean withdrawing from NATO.
    Yes, it would. When I’d cooled down I might decide that was an overreaction this time, but in the medium term, if this is how our relationship is now, I think we’re going to start asking whether we much care about continental European security.
    We are REALLY getting all worked up over something reported in the Daily Mail? Really??
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited March 2021

    Dura_Ace said:


    If they do it, we should never forget. I, for one, would overnight cease having any interest in protecting their frontier from Russia with British boots on the ground, for example.

    That would mean withdrawing from NATO.
    Yes, it would. When I’d cooled down I might decide that was an overreaction this time, but in the medium term, if this is how our relationship is now, I think we’re going to start asking whether we much care about continental European security.
    We are REALLY getting all worked up over something reported in the Daily Mail? Really??
    Yeah that’s fair. I think the real point is that the EU and the U.K. have to learn to work together as allies, but competitors, quickly or the western alliance will die. And it won’t take much.
    Edit - As many have pointed out, the EU might just pivot to work more closely with Russia anyway. Gas and all that.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    Leon said:

    Floater said:
    That will kill British people. We need to retaliate so it kills some of them, as well
    No, we should not.

    We should retaliate in a way that harms only economic interests, is clever and funny.

    I am too savage a person to come up with something.
    Pull out of UEFA.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    tlg86 said:

    Leon said:

    Floater said:
    That will kill British people. We need to retaliate so it kills some of them, as well
    No, we should not.

    We should retaliate in a way that harms only economic interests, is clever and funny.

    I am too savage a person to come up with something.
    Pull out of UEFA.
    Pull out of Eurovision!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    MaxPB said:

    Again, I'm going to point this out. The AZ supply chain in the UK isn't dependent on the EU. Their threat to block AZ exports to the UK is completely empty, UK AZ vaccine substance is supplied by Cobra Biologics and Oxford Biomedica and they are filled and finished by Wockhart in Wales.

    We also have importation of finished vaccine from the Serum Institute of India.

    Initially around 10m doses of drug substance was shipped from Halix in the Netherlands as the UK supply hadn't fully ramped up. It has now and we don't import from Halix now, it has dropped out of the UK supply chain since around the end of January.

    I think both sides know this and the EU can claim "victory" over nasty brexit Britain and really it makes no difference to anything we're doing.

    Blocking Pfizer exports now looks to be completely off the table after the call between Boris and the Belgian PM and the EU rhetoric reflects that as they've moved onto blocking non-existant AZ exports to the UK.

    What are the "19m doses" the articles talk about. Is that Pfizer?

    I am less sanguine than you. The EU has gone postal, and I really CAN see them marching into Belgium (the Germans are good at this) and seizing the Pfizer factories.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    tlg86 said:

    Leon said:

    Floater said:
    That will kill British people. We need to retaliate so it kills some of them, as well
    No, we should not.

    We should retaliate in a way that harms only economic interests, is clever and funny.

    I am too savage a person to come up with something.
    Pull out of UEFA.
    And take our ball with us.

    On a separate note I’ve always sort of hoped the corruption in FIFA could be fixed one day by England, Germany, Italy, France, Spain, Brazil, Argentina, and a few others pulling out of the World Cup and organising a rival tournament.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:


    If they do it, we should never forget. I, for one, would overnight cease having any interest in protecting their frontier from Russia with British boots on the ground, for example.

    That would mean withdrawing from NATO.
    Or, splitting NATO. I doubt the Americans will look kindly on the EU seizing vaccines made by an American company.

    NATO would split into its Anglophone and European elements. Turkey would finally say goodbye. The end of the Western Alliance
    This is inevitable anyway. European and American strategic interests are too divergent now.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    Leon said:

    Floater said:
    That will kill British people. We need to retaliate so it kills some of them, as well
    No, we should not.

    We should retaliate in a way that harms only economic interests, is clever and funny.

    I am too savage a person to come up with something.
    We should announce that we will not only not call their representative an Ambassador, we will only deal with the representatives of Member States?
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,285

    Leon said:

    Floater said:
    That will kill British people. We need to retaliate so it kills some of them, as well
    No, we should not.

    We should retaliate in a way that harms only economic interests, is clever and funny.

    I am too savage a person to come up with something.
    If they start messing about with IP rights we could stop recognising their PDO and start calling our sparkling wines "champagne"...
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,285
    Census done: took less than 10 minutes online.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429

    Dura_Ace said:


    If they do it, we should never forget. I, for one, would overnight cease having any interest in protecting their frontier from Russia with British boots on the ground, for example.

    That would mean withdrawing from NATO.
    Yes, it would. When I’d cooled down I might decide that was an overreaction this time, but in the medium term, if this is how our relationship is now, I think we’re going to start asking whether we much care about continental European security.
    We are REALLY getting all worked up over something reported in the Daily Mail? Really??
    For once this isn't hyperbole from the Mail. A lot of people "in the know" are pushing the idea the EU should do this. See our old friend Dave "Keating" for one.

    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1373581393272438787?s=20
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    The UK had a de facto AV system for Westminster throughout the 1950s when most seats only had two candidates - Tory and Labour. For circa 50% of the country that continued to be the case until 1974.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    felix said:

    tlg86 said:

    Leon said:

    Floater said:
    That will kill British people. We need to retaliate so it kills some of them, as well
    No, we should not.

    We should retaliate in a way that harms only economic interests, is clever and funny.

    I am too savage a person to come up with something.
    Pull out of UEFA.
    Pull out of Eurovision!
    Or ask Sir Paul McCartney to go and sweep up the popular vote. Win at a canter whilst taking the piss, singing the Frog Chorus.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Again, I'm going to point this out. The AZ supply chain in the UK isn't dependent on the EU. Their threat to block AZ exports to the UK is completely empty, UK AZ vaccine substance is supplied by Cobra Biologics and Oxford Biomedica and they are filled and finished by Wockhart in Wales.

    We also have importation of finished vaccine from the Serum Institute of India.

    Initially around 10m doses of drug substance was shipped from Halix in the Netherlands as the UK supply hadn't fully ramped up. It has now and we don't import from Halix now, it has dropped out of the UK supply chain since around the end of January.

    I think both sides know this and the EU can claim "victory" over nasty brexit Britain and really it makes no difference to anything we're doing.

    Blocking Pfizer exports now looks to be completely off the table after the call between Boris and the Belgian PM and the EU rhetoric reflects that as they've moved onto blocking non-existant AZ exports to the UK.

    What are the "19m doses" the articles talk about. Is that Pfizer?

    I am less sanguine than you. The EU has gone postal, and I really CAN see them marching into Belgium (the Germans are good at this) and seizing the Pfizer factories.
    Yes, Pfizer doses where we still have yet to take delivery. The threat to Pfizer exports are literally zero. The mechanism for the EU to expropriate the Puurs factory requires a unanimous vote and Belgium will never vote to decimate it's pharma industry, it will never endanger it's relationship with the UK or US in that manner and break the western alliance.

    Macron, Ursula and Mutti can continue to thrash around as much as they want it doesn't change the facts on the ground.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    justin124 said:

    The UK had a de facto AV system for Westminster throughout the 1950s when most seats only had two candidates - Tory and Labour. For circa 50% of the country that continued to be the case until 1974.

    'Binary choice' and 'AV' are not the same thing.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,532



    It depends what you mean by "new normal." If that means inevitable socio-economic change like more working from home then that's just an evolutionary process which, for good or ill, we'll have to live with. If "new normal" means that some restrictions carry on forever then no fucking way should we be expected to put up with that bollocks.

    I think there are some habits which will take a while to return, if ever. I'd have said hand-shaking was one, as it feels to me like a pointless ritual, but then there's this article full of amazing anecdotes (don't be put off by the boring title):

    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/mar/21/after-covid-we-will-shake-hands-again-says-ella-al-shamahi-it-is-part-of-our-dna

    I've ordered the book, just for the fun of her stories.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    justin124 said:

    The UK had a de facto AV system for Westminster throughout the 1950s when most seats only had two candidates - Tory and Labour. For circa 50% of the country that continued to be the case until 1974.

    How does that make it de facto AV? There are only two candidates to pick from, no one gets multiple choices etc.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Jonathan said:

    This old chestnut.

    Sedgefield being lost to the Tories and Finchley to Labour (both inside 25 years) shows there are no such things as safe seats and the electoral landscape can, and does, radically change. Everyone starts on zero at each and every election.

    I'm unconvinced by alternative voting systems because no-one's ever demonstrated to me that countries that have them are any more satisfied with their politics than we are.

    Next.

    Most seats are safe. Calling out 2 out of 650 doesn’t change that. In a very good year about 100 can change hands. That leaves about 500 that don’t change hands. Meanwhile many seats have had the same party for over one hundred years. Nothing changes. I may be naive but in so far as any thing is safe in life, they seem pretty safe to me.
    Nonsense. I picked two of the very safest (quite deliberately) because they were both held by former sitting Prime Ministers of different parties leading landslide governments.

    Hundreds of seats have changed in England over the last 20 years, and almost all of them in Scotland.
    Finchley was not a particularly safe Tory seat. Thatcher's majorities there at both 1974 elections were quite modest.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    When talk turns to PR, the example is always the mad systems of Italy and Israel.

    But NZ and Germany have an identical system, “MMP”, which works well. Ask Merkel if she thinks it has disfavoured the right; or Ardern if she thinks it discriminated against the left.

    Approximately half the seats are local electorates, won via FPTP contests.

    Approximately half are national list seats, allocated according a party’s share of a second, party vote to ensure full and perfect proportionality overall.

    A 5% threshold stops tiny parties from entering Parliament, although this rule is relaxed if you can win a local electorate.

    I wish we would adopt precise same system for the Scottish, Welsh, and Northern Irish Parliaments, as it would remove the seeming bias towards leading parties we see today as a result of using regional lists and avoiding full proportionality.

    In NZ (with which I am most familiar) it took around four or five electoral cycles to bed in, during which we saw a number of fruitcakes attempt to hold the balance of power.

    Overall, though, it has led to a much healthier mix of representation and opinion.

    I am not yet convinced we should change the system at Westminster.

    Actually I think Germany and NZ are different. The number of seats in Germany varies from election to election. I think the point is that you end up with each party having just about precisely the same share of seats as votes (after those not getting to 5% are excluded).

    That’s not the case in NZ. Labour won just over half the seats for a bit less than half the vote.

    Personally I wouldn’t mind a PR system but is quite like a bit of a bonus for the more popular parties. I think the Germans could find themselves in a whole world of pain this time.
  • Observer says that 'Wales sets up its own Erasmus programme. The Exchange scheme will ‘fill the gaps’ left by Boris Johnson’s Turing programme, which ‘lacks key benefits’

    Pulling out of Erasmus appears to be pure pique, coupled with a failure to negotiate sensibly.

    Always been the way the EU negotiate, sensible never comes into it
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Leon said:

    Floater said:
    That will kill British people. We need to retaliate so it kills some of them, as well
    No, we should not.

    We should retaliate in a way that harms only economic interests, is clever and funny.

    I am too savage a person to come up with something.
    The weak link in the chain appears to be block-happy Italy - is all our AZ filled there? Or could we divert to the UK prior to filling?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,450
    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:


    If they do it, we should never forget. I, for one, would overnight cease having any interest in protecting their frontier from Russia with British boots on the ground, for example.

    That would mean withdrawing from NATO.
    Yes, it would. When I’d cooled down I might decide that was an overreaction this time, but in the medium term, if this is how our relationship is now, I think we’re going to start asking whether we much care about continental European security.
    We are REALLY getting all worked up over something reported in the Daily Mail? Really??
    For once this isn't hyperbole from the Mail. A lot of people "in the know" are pushing the idea the EU should do this. See our old friend Dave "Keating" for one.

    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1373581393272438787?s=20
    Of course it's hyperbole. The Irish commissioner on the box this morning was totally reasonable.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Again, I'm going to point this out. The AZ supply chain in the UK isn't dependent on the EU. Their threat to block AZ exports to the UK is completely empty, UK AZ vaccine substance is supplied by Cobra Biologics and Oxford Biomedica and they are filled and finished by Wockhart in Wales.

    We also have importation of finished vaccine from the Serum Institute of India.

    Initially around 10m doses of drug substance was shipped from Halix in the Netherlands as the UK supply hadn't fully ramped up. It has now and we don't import from Halix now, it has dropped out of the UK supply chain since around the end of January.

    I think both sides know this and the EU can claim "victory" over nasty brexit Britain and really it makes no difference to anything we're doing.

    Blocking Pfizer exports now looks to be completely off the table after the call between Boris and the Belgian PM and the EU rhetoric reflects that as they've moved onto blocking non-existant AZ exports to the UK.

    What are the "19m doses" the articles talk about. Is that Pfizer?

    I am less sanguine than you. The EU has gone postal, and I really CAN see them marching into Belgium (the Germans are good at this) and seizing the Pfizer factories.
    Yes, Pfizer doses where we still have yet to take delivery. The threat to Pfizer exports are literally zero. The mechanism for the EU to expropriate the Puurs factory requires a unanimous vote and Belgium will never vote to decimate it's pharma industry, it will never endanger it's relationship with the UK or US in that manner and break the western alliance.

    Macron, Ursula and Mutti can continue to thrash around as much as they want it doesn't change the facts on the ground.
    Facts are chiels that winna ding.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Again, I'm going to point this out. The AZ supply chain in the UK isn't dependent on the EU. Their threat to block AZ exports to the UK is completely empty, UK AZ vaccine substance is supplied by Cobra Biologics and Oxford Biomedica and they are filled and finished by Wockhart in Wales.

    We also have importation of finished vaccine from the Serum Institute of India.

    Initially around 10m doses of drug substance was shipped from Halix in the Netherlands as the UK supply hadn't fully ramped up. It has now and we don't import from Halix now, it has dropped out of the UK supply chain since around the end of January.

    I think both sides know this and the EU can claim "victory" over nasty brexit Britain and really it makes no difference to anything we're doing.

    Blocking Pfizer exports now looks to be completely off the table after the call between Boris and the Belgian PM and the EU rhetoric reflects that as they've moved onto blocking non-existant AZ exports to the UK.

    What are the "19m doses" the articles talk about. Is that Pfizer?

    I am less sanguine than you. The EU has gone postal, and I really CAN see them marching into Belgium (the Germans are good at this) and seizing the Pfizer factories.
    Yes, Pfizer doses where we still have yet to take delivery. The threat to Pfizer exports are literally zero. The mechanism for the EU to expropriate the Puurs factory requires a unanimous vote and Belgium will never vote to decimate it's pharma industry, it will never endanger it's relationship with the UK or US in that manner and break the western alliance.

    Macron, Ursula and Mutti can continue to thrash around as much as they want it doesn't change the facts on the ground.
    Boris had a friendly chat with the Belgian PM.....I wonder if "Croda" was mentioned......
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:


    If they do it, we should never forget. I, for one, would overnight cease having any interest in protecting their frontier from Russia with British boots on the ground, for example.

    That would mean withdrawing from NATO.
    Or, splitting NATO. I doubt the Americans will look kindly on the EU seizing vaccines made by an American company.

    NATO would split into its Anglophone and European elements. Turkey would finally say goodbye. The end of the Western Alliance
    This is inevitable anyway. European and American strategic interests are too divergent now.
    Quite possibly true.

    In a few years we may realise that the UK-in-the-EU was the keystone holding the entire edifice together. The crucial link in a chain, with opposing forces at either end

    The chain perhaps snapped, as we left. Now Europe moves closer to Russia, under German leadership. The Anglosphere builds its own barricades


    The whole process accelerated greatly by Covid
  • Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:


    If they do it, we should never forget. I, for one, would overnight cease having any interest in protecting their frontier from Russia with British boots on the ground, for example.

    That would mean withdrawing from NATO.
    Yes, it would. When I’d cooled down I might decide that was an overreaction this time, but in the medium term, if this is how our relationship is now, I think we’re going to start asking whether we much care about continental European security.
    We are REALLY getting all worked up over something reported in the Daily Mail? Really??
    For once this isn't hyperbole from the Mail. A lot of people "in the know" are pushing the idea the EU should do this. See our old friend Dave "Keating" for one.

    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1373581393272438787?s=20
    Of course it's hyperbole. The Irish commissioner on the box this morning was totally reasonable.
    She did not rule it out
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,450

    Observer says that 'Wales sets up its own Erasmus programme. The Exchange scheme will ‘fill the gaps’ left by Boris Johnson’s Turing programme, which ‘lacks key benefits’

    Pulling out of Erasmus appears to be pure pique, coupled with a failure to negotiate sensibly.

    Always been the way the EU negotiate, sensible never comes into it
    It was we who pulled out of Erasmus as a result of our PM's petty nationalism.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    edited March 2021
    Dura_Ace said:

    I threw my census form in the bin. I highly doubt the £1,000 fine threatened by the 'compliance team' will ever materialise.

    A doorstep canvasser probably will, in due course

    If they can reach the front door for all the rusting vehicles
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930

    Observer says that 'Wales sets up its own Erasmus programme. The Exchange scheme will ‘fill the gaps’ left by Boris Johnson’s Turing programme, which ‘lacks key benefits’

    Pulling out of Erasmus appears to be pure pique, coupled with a failure to negotiate sensibly.

    Did Switzerland leave/not rejoin in pique too?
  • Observer says that 'Wales sets up its own Erasmus programme. The Exchange scheme will ‘fill the gaps’ left by Boris Johnson’s Turing programme, which ‘lacks key benefits’

    Pulling out of Erasmus appears to be pure pique, coupled with a failure to negotiate sensibly.

    Always been the way the EU negotiate, sensible never comes into it
    It was we who pulled out of Erasmus as a result of our PM's petty nationalism.
    With respect that is nonsense. They wanted far too much too remain in the scheme
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Again, I'm going to point this out. The AZ supply chain in the UK isn't dependent on the EU. Their threat to block AZ exports to the UK is completely empty, UK AZ vaccine substance is supplied by Cobra Biologics and Oxford Biomedica and they are filled and finished by Wockhart in Wales.

    We also have importation of finished vaccine from the Serum Institute of India.

    Initially around 10m doses of drug substance was shipped from Halix in the Netherlands as the UK supply hadn't fully ramped up. It has now and we don't import from Halix now, it has dropped out of the UK supply chain since around the end of January.

    I think both sides know this and the EU can claim "victory" over nasty brexit Britain and really it makes no difference to anything we're doing.

    Blocking Pfizer exports now looks to be completely off the table after the call between Boris and the Belgian PM and the EU rhetoric reflects that as they've moved onto blocking non-existant AZ exports to the UK.

    What are the "19m doses" the articles talk about. Is that Pfizer?

    I am less sanguine than you. The EU has gone postal, and I really CAN see them marching into Belgium (the Germans are good at this) and seizing the Pfizer factories.
    Yes, Pfizer doses where we still have yet to take delivery. The threat to Pfizer exports are literally zero. The mechanism for the EU to expropriate the Puurs factory requires a unanimous vote and Belgium will never vote to decimate it's pharma industry, it will never endanger it's relationship with the UK or US in that manner and break the western alliance.

    Macron, Ursula and Mutti can continue to thrash around as much as they want it doesn't change the facts on the ground.
    Boris had a friendly chat with the Belgian PM.....I wonder if "Croda" was mentioned......
    I’m sure it was very friendly and it was simply reiterated that in the same spirit as them confirming supply for us, we were only too happy to dispel any rumours we had even thought about blocking the export of [insert very detailed list of precursor chemicals, with numbers, here] to them.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    edited March 2021
    .. blockquotes
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:


    If they do it, we should never forget. I, for one, would overnight cease having any interest in protecting their frontier from Russia with British boots on the ground, for example.

    That would mean withdrawing from NATO.
    Yes, it would. When I’d cooled down I might decide that was an overreaction this time, but in the medium term, if this is how our relationship is now, I think we’re going to start asking whether we much care about continental European security.
    We are REALLY getting all worked up over something reported in the Daily Mail? Really??
    For once this isn't hyperbole from the Mail. A lot of people "in the know" are pushing the idea the EU should do this. See our old friend Dave "Keating" for one.

    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1373581393272438787?s=20
    Of course it's hyperbole. The Irish commissioner on the box this morning was totally reasonable.
    And yet a lot of sane and reliable EU commentators on Twitter (not just Mad Dave) are calmly contemplating the same possibility. It may well be an empty threat (as Max suggests) but they are making the threat, and I can see them going further. They might try to bully Belgium into agreeing.

    People are dying in droves, this is not some modest trade dispute. The dynamics are closer to wartime
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Observer says that 'Wales sets up its own Erasmus programme. The Exchange scheme will ‘fill the gaps’ left by Boris Johnson’s Turing programme, which ‘lacks key benefits’

    Pulling out of Erasmus appears to be pure pique, coupled with a failure to negotiate sensibly.

    Always been the way the EU negotiate, sensible never comes into it
    It was we who pulled out of Erasmus as a result of our PM's petty nationalism.
    No - it was because the EU wanted to substantially increase the cost to us of a system which disproportionately benefits EU students rather than UK ones. The EU overplayed their hand and their bluff was called. Their loss.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,851
    Dura_Ace said:

    I threw my census form in the bin. I highly doubt the £1,000 fine threatened by the 'compliance team' will ever materialise.

    Seriously, why?

    Are you a mad libertarian?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,450

    Observer says that 'Wales sets up its own Erasmus programme. The Exchange scheme will ‘fill the gaps’ left by Boris Johnson’s Turing programme, which ‘lacks key benefits’

    Pulling out of Erasmus appears to be pure pique, coupled with a failure to negotiate sensibly.

    Always been the way the EU negotiate, sensible never comes into it
    It was we who pulled out of Erasmus as a result of our PM's petty nationalism.
    With respect that is nonsense. They wanted far too much too remain in the scheme
    There's always a high price for education. Ask any of today's students.
  • Observer says that 'Wales sets up its own Erasmus programme. The Exchange scheme will ‘fill the gaps’ left by Boris Johnson’s Turing programme, which ‘lacks key benefits’

    Pulling out of Erasmus appears to be pure pique, coupled with a failure to negotiate sensibly.

    Always been the way the EU negotiate, sensible never comes into it
    It was we who pulled out of Erasmus as a result of our PM's petty nationalism.
    With respect that is nonsense. They wanted far too much too remain in the scheme
    There's always a high price for education. Ask any of today's students.
    Not when there are better cheaper alternatives
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930

    Observer says that 'Wales sets up its own Erasmus programme. The Exchange scheme will ‘fill the gaps’ left by Boris Johnson’s Turing programme, which ‘lacks key benefits’

    Pulling out of Erasmus appears to be pure pique, coupled with a failure to negotiate sensibly.

    Always been the way the EU negotiate, sensible never comes into it
    It was we who pulled out of Erasmus as a result of our PM's petty nationalism.
    With respect that is nonsense. They wanted far too much too remain in the scheme
    There's always a high price for education. Ask any of today's students.
    But the UK was subsidising the whole thing, paying for students from one EU-27 country to go to another EU-27 country. How is that fair to the UK?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,450

    Observer says that 'Wales sets up its own Erasmus programme. The Exchange scheme will ‘fill the gaps’ left by Boris Johnson’s Turing programme, which ‘lacks key benefits’

    Pulling out of Erasmus appears to be pure pique, coupled with a failure to negotiate sensibly.

    Always been the way the EU negotiate, sensible never comes into it
    It was we who pulled out of Erasmus as a result of our PM's petty nationalism.
    With respect that is nonsense. They wanted far too much too remain in the scheme
    There's always a high price for education. Ask any of today's students.
    Not when there are better cheaper alternatives
    The Turing scheme? Are you sure?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,202
    Wales
    1st 26,939
    2nd 9,429
    708610 equiv
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,450
    RobD said:

    Observer says that 'Wales sets up its own Erasmus programme. The Exchange scheme will ‘fill the gaps’ left by Boris Johnson’s Turing programme, which ‘lacks key benefits’

    Pulling out of Erasmus appears to be pure pique, coupled with a failure to negotiate sensibly.

    Always been the way the EU negotiate, sensible never comes into it
    It was we who pulled out of Erasmus as a result of our PM's petty nationalism.
    With respect that is nonsense. They wanted far too much too remain in the scheme
    There's always a high price for education. Ask any of today's students.
    But the UK was subsidising the whole thing, paying for students from one EU-27 country to go to another EU-27 country. How is that fair to the UK?
    Was that the same every year?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    edited March 2021
    I completed the census earlier this morning. Ticked no religion for me, and then asked the Mrs what she wanted to go for. Somewhat to my surprise she went for Christian, even though I happen to know her commitment amounts to going into a Catholic Church about once a year, lighting a candle, saying a prayer for her family and exiting about five minutes later.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,994

    Dura_Ace said:


    If they do it, we should never forget. I, for one, would overnight cease having any interest in protecting their frontier from Russia with British boots on the ground, for example.

    That would mean withdrawing from NATO.
    Yes, it would. When I’d cooled down I might decide that was an overreaction this time, but in the medium term, if this is how our relationship is now, I think we’re going to start asking whether we much care about continental European security.
    The dream will never die.

    https://images.app.goo.gl/g5PCQFYjso5enjhk9

  • Observer says that 'Wales sets up its own Erasmus programme. The Exchange scheme will ‘fill the gaps’ left by Boris Johnson’s Turing programme, which ‘lacks key benefits’

    Pulling out of Erasmus appears to be pure pique, coupled with a failure to negotiate sensibly.

    Always been the way the EU negotiate, sensible never comes into it
    It was we who pulled out of Erasmus as a result of our PM's petty nationalism.
    With respect that is nonsense. They wanted far too much too remain in the scheme
    There's always a high price for education. Ask any of today's students.
    Not when there are better cheaper alternatives
    The Turing scheme? Are you sure?
    Seems sensible but ultimately we were not going to pay the EU price
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,827

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    The “post-Christian era” in the UK will be cemented by data emerging from Sunday’s census which is expected to show further generational disengagement from organised religion, according to a leading academic.

    The once-a-decade snapshot of the country has included a voluntary question about religion since 2001. In 2011, returns across England and Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland showed 59.3% ticking Christianity, a fall from 71.6% a decade earlier.

    Abby Day, professor of race, faith and culture at Goldsmiths, University of London, expects this year’s census to show a further erosion in Christian identity, mainly because postwar generations regard the church as irrelevant and immoral.

    Day predicted the proportion of people ticking Christianity “could drop below 50%”. Peter Brierley, an expert on religion statistics, said he predicted 48% or 49% identifying as Christian, but David Voas, head of the social sciences department at University College London, said he would be surprised if the figure fell below 50%

    I would expect Christian to still be ahead of No religion though.

    The question did not ask 'are you religious?' when I did the census yesterday, it asked 'what is your religion?' ie No religion, Christian (no denomination breakdown so Catholics and evangelicals will boost the figure compared to what the C of E would have got), Buddhist, Hindu, Jewish, Muslim, Sikh, any other religion?
    I know people who aren't Christians, but write down Christian on the form because they can't stand organisations like the National Secular Society.
    I put CofE because I go a couple of times a year (harvest, Easter and Christmas) and I wouldn't want to give succour to anti-disestabishmentarians, ultra-liberal progressives and republicans, which it otherwise most certainly would and potentially influence public policy accordingly.
    You've just convinced me not to put CofE.
    I doubt that but when it comes to religion people certainly play with it.
    The idea of simply responding on the basis of what religion or none that you believe clearly being too straightforward for you?
    I am a cultural Christian. I go a handful of times a year and do christenings, weddings and funerals in church. I am not a regular Sunday worshipper, but few people are, and CofE is a far better way of describing my identity than putting I'm an atheist.

    I think there are millions like me.
    Perhaps a secondary "intensity" question would throw more light on this. For each religion are you a follower, believer or fundamentalist?

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,450
    edited March 2021

    I completed the census earlier this morning. Ticked no religion for me, and then asked the Mrs what she wanted to go for. Somewhat to my surprise she went for Christian, even though I happen to know her commitment amounts to going into a Catholic Church about once a year, lighting a candle, saying a prayer for her family and exiting about five minutes later.

    Once a Catholic.......

    My wife did the same. TBH I don't think she's been near a church other the local Flower Festival for about 5 years. Says she's CoE.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930

    RobD said:

    Observer says that 'Wales sets up its own Erasmus programme. The Exchange scheme will ‘fill the gaps’ left by Boris Johnson’s Turing programme, which ‘lacks key benefits’

    Pulling out of Erasmus appears to be pure pique, coupled with a failure to negotiate sensibly.

    Always been the way the EU negotiate, sensible never comes into it
    It was we who pulled out of Erasmus as a result of our PM's petty nationalism.
    With respect that is nonsense. They wanted far too much too remain in the scheme
    There's always a high price for education. Ask any of today's students.
    But the UK was subsidising the whole thing, paying for students from one EU-27 country to go to another EU-27 country. How is that fair to the UK?
    Was that the same every year?
    That wouldn't surprise me, especially as the UK was a net contributor for many years to the EU exchequer overall.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,994
    Hodgesy: THESE WERE NECESSARY DEATHS!!!

    https://twitter.com/keejayov3/status/1373574890226380800?s=21
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547

    Dura_Ace said:


    If they do it, we should never forget. I, for one, would overnight cease having any interest in protecting their frontier from Russia with British boots on the ground, for example.

    That would mean withdrawing from NATO.
    Yes, it would. When I’d cooled down I might decide that was an overreaction this time, but in the medium term, if this is how our relationship is now, I think we’re going to start asking whether we much care about continental European security.
    The dream will never die.

    https://images.app.goo.gl/g5PCQFYjso5enjhk9

    In what way have I likened the EU to the Nazis? Why have you brought them into it? Sigh, the internet....
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,100
    edited March 2021
    Both BBC and Sky leading on the EU threat to ban vaccines coming to the UK later this week

    The optics of this for the EU are toxic and just affirms rejoining is going to become very difficult to sell
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    edited March 2021
    Dura_Ace said:

    I threw my census form in the bin. I highly doubt the £1,000 fine threatened by the 'compliance team' will ever materialise.

    Ooh, what a tough badass you are. So cool and alternative. Fight the system and all that. Revolution. Etc etc.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    The UK had a de facto AV system for Westminster throughout the 1950s when most seats only had two candidates - Tory and Labour. For circa 50% of the country that continued to be the case until 1974.

    'Binary choice' and 'AV' are not the same thing.
    Which is why I said 'De Facto'. Liberal , Green and supporters of other small parties were faced in most constituencies with voting for 'the lesser of two evils', spoiling their ballot papers or staying at home.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547

    Both BBC and Sky leading on the EU threat to ban vaccines coming to the UK later this week

    The optics of this for the EU are toxic and just affirms rejoining is going to become very difficult to sell

    Won’t hurt Boris politically if we still outpace them anyway, either.... This is electoral Christmas for him.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,450

    Both BBC and Sky leading on the EU threat to ban vaccines coming to the UK later this week

    The optics of this for the EU are toxic and just affirms rejoining is going to become very difficult to sell

    BBC website is leading on 'No foreign holidays' Mentions the vaccine wall, but attributes any comments to the Defence Sec.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    The “post-Christian era” in the UK will be cemented by data emerging from Sunday’s census which is expected to show further generational disengagement from organised religion, according to a leading academic.

    The once-a-decade snapshot of the country has included a voluntary question about religion since 2001. In 2011, returns across England and Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland showed 59.3% ticking Christianity, a fall from 71.6% a decade earlier.

    Abby Day, professor of race, faith and culture at Goldsmiths, University of London, expects this year’s census to show a further erosion in Christian identity, mainly because postwar generations regard the church as irrelevant and immoral.

    Day predicted the proportion of people ticking Christianity “could drop below 50%”. Peter Brierley, an expert on religion statistics, said he predicted 48% or 49% identifying as Christian, but David Voas, head of the social sciences department at University College London, said he would be surprised if the figure fell below 50%

    I would expect Christian to still be ahead of No religion though.

    The question did not ask 'are you religious?' when I did the census yesterday, it asked 'what is your religion?' ie No religion, Christian (no denomination breakdown so Catholics and evangelicals will boost the figure compared to what the C of E would have got), Buddhist, Hindu, Jewish, Muslim, Sikh, any other religion?
    I know people who aren't Christians, but write down Christian on the form because they can't stand organisations like the National Secular Society.
    I put CofE because I go a couple of times a year (harvest, Easter and Christmas) and I wouldn't want to give succour to anti-disestabishmentarians, ultra-liberal progressives and republicans, which it otherwise most certainly would and potentially influence public policy accordingly.
    You've just convinced me not to put CofE.
    I doubt that but when it comes to religion people certainly play with it.
    The idea of simply responding on the basis of what religion or none that you believe clearly being too straightforward for you?
    I am a cultural Christian. I go a handful of times a year and do christenings, weddings and funerals in church. I am not a regular Sunday worshipper, but few people are, and CofE is a far better way of describing my identity than putting I'm an atheist.

    I think there are millions like me.
    Perhaps a secondary "intensity" question would throw more light on this. For each religion are you a follower, believer or fundamentalist?

    Lots of people always never really believed, but it has only slowly become socially acceptable to say so
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:


    If they do it, we should never forget. I, for one, would overnight cease having any interest in protecting their frontier from Russia with British boots on the ground, for example.

    That would mean withdrawing from NATO.
    Or, splitting NATO. I doubt the Americans will look kindly on the EU seizing vaccines made by an American company.

    NATO would split into its Anglophone and European elements. Turkey would finally say goodbye. The end of the Western Alliance
    This is inevitable anyway. European and American strategic interests are too divergent now.
    Quite possibly true.

    In a few years we may realise that the UK-in-the-EU was the keystone holding the entire edifice together. The crucial link in a chain, with opposing forces at either end

    The chain perhaps snapped, as we left. Now Europe moves closer to Russia, under German leadership. The Anglosphere builds its own barricades


    The whole process accelerated greatly by Covid
    The UK will join the new US - China cold war in the Pacific from a distance like one of those cockneys who support Man Utd.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,227
    Floater said:
    Daily Mail, so I am sceptical.

    Little titbit from that article which I am not aware is true. Are there really 19 million vaccines to be imported from the EU countries? Hmm.

    In a dramatic move, Ms von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, threatened to join forces with the French and German governments to hold hostage more than 19 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine due to be shipped to the UK over the coming weeks.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    The UK had a de facto AV system for Westminster throughout the 1950s when most seats only had two candidates - Tory and Labour. For circa 50% of the country that continued to be the case until 1974.

    'Binary choice' and 'AV' are not the same thing.
    Which is why I said 'De Facto'. Liberal , Green and supporters of other small parties were faced in most constituencies with voting for 'the lesser of two evils', spoiling their ballot papers or staying at home.
    Are there any voters that agree with every single policy of the party they are voting for? It's always a lesser of two evils kind of choice. Jut because there are only two options on the ballot paper doesn't make it AV.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429

    Both BBC and Sky leading on the EU threat to ban vaccines coming to the UK later this week

    The optics of this for the EU are toxic and just affirms rejoining is going to become very difficult to sell

    Rejoin is now impossible for two generations, even if it was ever feasible (which I doubt)

    This was always a possibility after Brexit (which is why clever, hardcore Brexiteers wanted a hard Brexit): the fall out from departure would be so heated, both sides would recoil, and diverge quite violently

    Tho I doubt anyone guessed a plague would speed the process
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I threw my census form in the bin. I highly doubt the £1,000 fine threatened by the 'compliance team' will ever materialise.

    Ooh, what a tough badass you are. So cool and alternative. Fight the system and all that. Revolution. Etc etc.
    Sadly, the ‘Man’ has now been left forever wondering about DA’s religious affiliation.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,586

    I completed the census earlier this morning. Ticked no religion for me, and then asked the Mrs what she wanted to go for. Somewhat to my surprise she went for Christian, even though I happen to know her commitment amounts to going into a Catholic Church about once a year, lighting a candle, saying a prayer for her family and exiting about five minutes later.

    What do you do if you're a non-practising member of a religion?
  • Both BBC and Sky leading on the EU threat to ban vaccines coming to the UK later this week

    The optics of this for the EU are toxic and just affirms rejoining is going to become very difficult to sell

    BBC website is leading on 'No foreign holidays' Mentions the vaccine wall, but attributes any comments to the Defence Sec.
    Polite question but are you trying to downplay how serious this could be for the EU relationships not only with the UK,
    but the rest of the world.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    The UK had a de facto AV system for Westminster throughout the 1950s when most seats only had two candidates - Tory and Labour. For circa 50% of the country that continued to be the case until 1974.

    How does that make it de facto AV? There are only two candidates to pick from, no one gets multiple choices etc.
    In the 1951 and 1955 elections the Liberals contested 109 and 110 seats respectively. Liberal supporters in more than 500 seats were not given a Liberal candidate as an option. Such voters could either choose to abstain - as some did - or vote for a 'lesser evil' as a second preference.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,475
    isam said:

    I was thinking how Sir Keir could solve the problem of him coming across so dull, & what I came up with was for someone else, or perhaps several other people, to do the hard sell of leader debates/election campaigning while he was the competent brains of the operation in the background. I think Theresa May tried that and it lost her the Conservatives majority though.

    But it made me think that actually it isn’t that good an idea for the public to have presidential style tv debates inform them pre election, and they should be scrapped. Because being insincere but charismatic shouldn’t trump dull competence when it comes to being PM, but it does.

    Maybe it would be better for Labour if they didn’t have a leader, but ruled by committee? The need for the manager to be flamboyant would be negated. An Alpha in charge of subordinates is so right wing

    I don't think it's necessarily about his dullness; I think it's more about that we like to think there's a streak of greatness in our leaders. I think those who like Boris's muzzed hair and shambolic presentational style might do so not because it entertains them but because we connote that with some form of inner genius - like Professor Branestawm with his several pairs of glasses on his head. So instead of appearing less dull, Keir would need to find a way to convey his dullness as a benefit - even accentuate his dullness in some way that indicated his dullness was good for the nation.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,586
    Leon said:

    Both BBC and Sky leading on the EU threat to ban vaccines coming to the UK later this week

    The optics of this for the EU are toxic and just affirms rejoining is going to become very difficult to sell

    Rejoin is now impossible for two generations, even if it was ever feasible (which I doubt)

    This was always a possibility after Brexit (which is why clever, hardcore Brexiteers wanted a hard Brexit): the fall out from departure would be so heated, both sides would recoil, and diverge quite violently

    Tho I doubt anyone guessed a plague would speed the process
    Why are they behaving like this?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,397
    MattW said:

    Floater said:
    Daily Mail, so I am sceptical.

    Little titbit from that article which I am not aware is true. Are there really 19 million vaccines to be imported from the EU countries? Hmm.

    In a dramatic move, Ms von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, threatened to join forces with the French and German governments to hold hostage more than 19 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine due to be shipped to the UK over the coming weeks.
    I have seen multiple reports that Ms von der Leyen repeated the threats yesterday.

    The thing is that our retaliation would be worse than the initial ban - Pfizer would have no choice but to close their EU plant down and shift production to outside the EU.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,586
    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    The UK had a de facto AV system for Westminster throughout the 1950s when most seats only had two candidates - Tory and Labour. For circa 50% of the country that continued to be the case until 1974.

    How does that make it de facto AV? There are only two candidates to pick from, no one gets multiple choices etc.
    AV and FPTP are the same system when there are only two candidates standing.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,706
    edited March 2021
    "We've got more now from Dr Mary Ramsay, the head of immunisation at Public Health England, who has told Andrew Marr some restrictions, such as social distancing and wearing a mask, could last for years.

    “People have got used to those lower level restrictions now, and people can live with them, and the economy can still go on with those less severe restrictions in place."

    “We are talking about quite a long period of time," says Dr Ramsay."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-56474181

    Fucking fuck off Dr. Ramsay.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,542
    DavidL said:

    RH1992 said:

    MattW said:

    Interesting thread. German Greens policy for a Federal Europe.

    Good to see some debate. I wonder if this is new?

    https://twitter.com/APHClarkson/status/1372971407664103425

    That's the UK never going back then if that happens.
    But what is being proposed there is simply a coherent and logical consequence of the policies that were already in place. The EU and the ECB have been remarkably fortunate to get away with such an incoherent structure in both 2008 and now with Covid. Only the unflinching backing of the Germans has held it together and its been touch and go.

    Sooner or later fiscal policy and monetary policy need to be unified. That can happen either at Nation State level or at EU level but this split is dangerous, risky and damaging. This is a way of bringing them together at EU level. Anyone who voted to remain and didn't accept the logic of this really hadn't thought things through particularly well. A vote for remain was never a vote for the status quo. It was a vote for this or something similar.
    Of course it was. The Remainers' campaign should have been far more honest.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,475
    Leon said:

    Both BBC and Sky leading on the EU threat to ban vaccines coming to the UK later this week

    The optics of this for the EU are toxic and just affirms rejoining is going to become very difficult to sell

    Rejoin is now impossible for two generations, even if it was ever feasible (which I doubt)

    This was always a possibility after Brexit (which is why clever, hardcore Brexiteers wanted a hard Brexit): the fall out from departure would be so heated, both sides would recoil, and diverge quite violently

    Tho I doubt anyone guessed a plague would speed the process
    Old style generations or SNP generations?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,397
    That's one hell of a tweet in anger screwup - the deaths might have been unavoidable but they cannot have been necessary.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:


    If they do it, we should never forget. I, for one, would overnight cease having any interest in protecting their frontier from Russia with British boots on the ground, for example.

    That would mean withdrawing from NATO.
    Or, splitting NATO. I doubt the Americans will look kindly on the EU seizing vaccines made by an American company.

    NATO would split into its Anglophone and European elements. Turkey would finally say goodbye. The end of the Western Alliance
    This is inevitable anyway. European and American strategic interests are too divergent now.
    Quite possibly true.

    In a few years we may realise that the UK-in-the-EU was the keystone holding the entire edifice together. The crucial link in a chain, with opposing forces at either end

    The chain perhaps snapped, as we left. Now Europe moves closer to Russia, under German leadership. The Anglosphere builds its own barricades


    The whole process accelerated greatly by Covid
    The UK will join the new US - China cold war in the Pacific from a distance like one of those cockneys who support Man Utd.
    We will join it, but it won't be at an easy distance. It will hurt us, the way it is already hurting Australia


    https://www.ft.com/content/b3b77c27-329e-41ac-be6b-f7cc1436177d
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    The UK had a de facto AV system for Westminster throughout the 1950s when most seats only had two candidates - Tory and Labour. For circa 50% of the country that continued to be the case until 1974.

    'Binary choice' and 'AV' are not the same thing.
    Which is why I said 'De Facto'. Liberal , Green and supporters of other small parties were faced in most constituencies with voting for 'the lesser of two evils', spoiling their ballot papers or staying at home.
    Are there any voters that agree with every single policy of the party they are voting for? It's always a lesser of two evils kind of choice. Jut because there are only two options on the ballot paper doesn't make it AV.
    But the choice was restricted to two lesser evils rather than three,four or five. Many voters were effectively being denied their preferred 'lesser evil'.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429

    "We've got more now from Dr Mary Ramsay, the head of immunisation at Public Health England, who has told Andrew Marr some restrictions, such as social distancing and wearing a mask, could last for years.

    “People have got used to those lower level restrictions now, and people can live with them, and the economy can still go on with those less severe restrictions in place."

    “We are talking about quite a long period of time," says Dr Ramsay."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-56474181

    Fucking fuck off Dr. Ramsay.

    Yes, fuck off, fuck right off with that. Social distancing, ie government mandated loneliness, for years???

    They need to put these wretched scientists back in their boxes. They don't get to decide how we live. They are boffins who know about bugs, not human society
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    eek said:

    MattW said:

    Floater said:
    Daily Mail, so I am sceptical.

    Little titbit from that article which I am not aware is true. Are there really 19 million vaccines to be imported from the EU countries? Hmm.

    In a dramatic move, Ms von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, threatened to join forces with the French and German governments to hold hostage more than 19 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine due to be shipped to the UK over the coming weeks.
    I have seen multiple reports that Ms von der Leyen repeated the threats yesterday.

    The thing is that our retaliation would be worse than the initial ban - Pfizer would have no choice but to close their EU plant down and shift production to outside the EU.
    I trust Politico is seen as a reliable source?

    https://www.politico.eu/article/von-der-leyen-threatens-astrazeneca-with-vaccine-export-ban/
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,542

    I completed the census earlier this morning. Ticked no religion for me, and then asked the Mrs what she wanted to go for. Somewhat to my surprise she went for Christian, even though I happen to know her commitment amounts to going into a Catholic Church about once a year, lighting a candle, saying a prayer for her family and exiting about five minutes later.

    Once a Catholic.......

    My wife did the same. TBH I don't think she's been near a church other the local Flower Festival for about 5 years. Says she's CoE.
    Lots of people who would say if asked that they were 'Labour' or 'Conservative' confine their loyalty to turning up once in 5 years or so to put a cross in a box. Religion may be little different.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,202
    Safe seats are safe till theyre not. Like mine
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    I have just read on Vote UK site that the SNP MP for Airdrie & Shotts is to give up his seat to contest the same seat at Holyrood. If true , it should be an interesting by election, with Labour coming within 200 votes in 2017.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    "We've got more now from Dr Mary Ramsay, the head of immunisation at Public Health England, who has told Andrew Marr some restrictions, such as social distancing and wearing a mask, could last for years.

    “People have got used to those lower level restrictions now, and people can live with them, and the economy can still go on with those less severe restrictions in place."

    “We are talking about quite a long period of time," says Dr Ramsay."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-56474181

    Fucking fuck off Dr. Ramsay.

    I would like to know her economic qualifications upon which she bases that rather dramatic claim. Has she not observed that through all the iterations of the lockdown, there have some people who have been on permanent furlough, and many businesses in receipt of permanent government support to a lesser or greater degree.

    The fact that many individuals may have go used to the lower level restrictions, is hardly an indication that they are sustainable for a longer period. Might just about be able to give her masks, in theory, but nothing else.

    Just a random question - has anyone pointed out that if people took all the rules on social distancing literally, the human race could die out within a couple of generations? As it is the models for future school provision are already completed f*cked up as a result of the last year.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    eek said:

    That's one hell of a tweet in anger screwup - the deaths might have been unavoidable but they cannot have been necessary.
    They were neither else why would other Countries have significantly lower ones
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    The UK had a de facto AV system for Westminster throughout the 1950s when most seats only had two candidates - Tory and Labour. For circa 50% of the country that continued to be the case until 1974.

    'Binary choice' and 'AV' are not the same thing.
    Which is why I said 'De Facto'. Liberal , Green and supporters of other small parties were faced in most constituencies with voting for 'the lesser of two evils', spoiling their ballot papers or staying at home.
    Are there any voters that agree with every single policy of the party they are voting for? It's always a lesser of two evils kind of choice. Jut because there are only two options on the ballot paper doesn't make it AV.
    But the choice was restricted to two lesser evils rather than three,four or five. Many voters were effectively being denied their preferred 'lesser evil'.
    I'm just demonstrating that by your logic FPTP with any number of candidates is AV.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Pulpstar said:

    Safe seats are safe till theyre not. Like mine

    And conversely, some seats like mine (Ealing Central and Acton), which once were marginal, now are not.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    The UK had a de facto AV system for Westminster throughout the 1950s when most seats only had two candidates - Tory and Labour. For circa 50% of the country that continued to be the case until 1974.

    'Binary choice' and 'AV' are not the same thing.
    Which is why I said 'De Facto'. Liberal , Green and supporters of other small parties were faced in most constituencies with voting for 'the lesser of two evils', spoiling their ballot papers or staying at home.
    Are there any voters that agree with every single policy of the party they are voting for? It's always a lesser of two evils kind of choice. Jut because there are only two options on the ballot paper doesn't make it AV.
    But the choice was restricted to two lesser evils rather than three,four or five. Many voters were effectively being denied their preferred 'lesser evil'.
    I'm just demonstrating that by your logic FPTP with any number of candidates is AV.
    It is for voters denied their preferred candidate.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    eek said:

    MattW said:

    Floater said:
    Daily Mail, so I am sceptical.

    Little titbit from that article which I am not aware is true. Are there really 19 million vaccines to be imported from the EU countries? Hmm.

    In a dramatic move, Ms von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, threatened to join forces with the French and German governments to hold hostage more than 19 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine due to be shipped to the UK over the coming weeks.
    I have seen multiple reports that Ms von der Leyen repeated the threats yesterday.

    The thing is that our retaliation would be worse than the initial ban - Pfizer would have no choice but to close their EU plant down and shift production to outside the EU.
    I trust Politico is seen as a reliable source?

    https://www.politico.eu/article/von-der-leyen-threatens-astrazeneca-with-vaccine-export-ban/
    Still totally confused about this question of an AstraZeneca export ban from the EU. There seem to be totally conflicting reports about whether the UK are receiving AZ from the continent. Or is there some part of the bottling process or something being done over there?

    Given that the threats still seem to just about be on the basis of warnings to AZ, rather than warnings to the UK, i don't see how they can be threatening AZ with an export ban on Pfizer?!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,355
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Both BBC and Sky leading on the EU threat to ban vaccines coming to the UK later this week

    The optics of this for the EU are toxic and just affirms rejoining is going to become very difficult to sell

    Rejoin is now impossible for two generations, even if it was ever feasible (which I doubt)

    This was always a possibility after Brexit (which is why clever, hardcore Brexiteers wanted a hard Brexit): the fall out from departure would be so heated, both sides would recoil, and diverge quite violently

    Tho I doubt anyone guessed a plague would speed the process
    Why are they behaving like this?
    Ir's an Excession (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Excession) moment.

    Everyone is very civilised when their problems are First World Problems.

    When the other monkey has a banana they really, really want and they don't have one......
This discussion has been closed.