With 10 weeks to go to the Holyrood election new Scottish poll has the SNP down to lowest point sinc
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With 10 weeks to go to the Holyrood election new Scottish poll has the SNP down to lowest point since GE2019 – politicalbetting.com
Probably the biggest elections taking place in the UK on the first Thursday of May are for the Scottish Parliament where a majority for the SNP could be important plank in its effort to have another referendum on the country being independent.
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@ Leon FPT: Altered Carbon: 2 seasons of a cyberpunk TV series in which the basic idea is that you can back yourself up onto a disk (and for extra protection into the Cloud on satellites), and 're-sleeve' yourself into a new body as many times as you like. Stripped of the sci-fi and cyberpunk atmospherics, it is a standard whodunnit.0
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Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.0
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Ah, the Sunday Rawnsley ...
It is always worth hearing incisive commentary on Scotland from a man who rarely leaves South-West London.
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Note on the list vote the SNP is already below the 41% it got in 2016 now at 38% on this poll.
On the constituency vote it is still up on the 46.5% it got then but if Labour under its new leader Anas Sarwar makes inroads even that could be under threat
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1366338126097055744?s=200 -
... and also, of course, the SNP do not have a majority in the current term of the Holyrood Parliament, despite widespread belief on PB ('one party state' and all that).0
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It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 (given the 2016 election was before Brexit) and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendumCarnyx said:Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
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I think you have misunderstood./ Brexit IS the material change in circumstances. Sufficient in itself.HYUFD said:
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendumCarnyx said:Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
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Its easy to forget the previous Scottish election took place before the Brexit referendum. About 6 weeks before.0
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.. and you are moving the goalposts yet again. Suddenly a majority of pro-indy MSPs isn;'t good enough?HYUFD said:
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 (given the 2016 election was before Brexit) and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendumCarnyx said:Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
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I must admit I don't really have a good answer for why the gap between constituency and list votes for the SNP (regardless of the overall level) differ so much, much more than at the last election.HYUFD said:Note on the list vote the SNP is already below the 41% it got in 2016 now at 38% on this poll.
On the constituency vote it is still up on the 46.5% it got then but if Labour under its new leader Anas Sarwar makes inroads even that could be under threat
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1366338126097055744?s=20
Any thoughts on whether that gap is real?
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UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100K population
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Not sure what you mean, it's been a feature for some time. The problem is the gerrymandered d'Hondt system - some folk think it is a waste of your vote to vote twice over for a party which is likely to win in the constituency so if they vote SNP [edit] on the constiotuency they vote Green on the list. Or else, Greens vote SNP or Labour (or LD) rather than Green in the constituency. Combination of the two I'd say.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I must admit I don't really have a good answer for why the gap between constituency and list votes for the SNP (regardless of the overall level) differ so much, much more than at the last election.HYUFD said:Note on the list vote the SNP is already below the 41% it got in 2016 now at 38% on this poll.
On the constituency vote it is still up on the 46.5% it got then but if Labour under its new leader Anas Sarwar makes inroads even that could be under threat
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1366338126097055744?s=20
Any thoughts on whether that gap is real?0 -
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Not so. If the pro-Independence parties maintain a majority then the material change of Brexit is more than enough justification for a referendum. They will have both the electoral support and the material reason to call one. Whether they will win is another matter but that is for the Scottish people to decide. They deserve to be given that chance.HYUFD said:
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 (given the 2016 election was before Brexit) and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendumCarnyx said:Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
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I think he does understand.Carnyx said:
I think you have misunderstood./ Brexit IS the material change in circumstances. Sufficient in itself.HYUFD said:
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendumCarnyx said:Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
For those that want a referendum in the near future Brexit is a valid reason for why there is no need for a generation +1 gap between referendums.
For those that don't want a referendum Brexit isn't a sufficient significant reason and there needs to be a generational gap.
The fact that Boris is both the reason behind Brexit and the reason why Scotland would vote for independence is neither here nor there.
Personally I do think there needs to be an Royal Commission to investigate independence so that the difficult questions (Government debt, currency, oil, nuclear deterrent) can't be sidestepped in the referendum as the awkward topics were last time around.
Were the UK Government to present the SNP with a long set of hard to answer and currently unanswered questions independence would be far harder than it currently is.0 -
Uk hospitals
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I had hoped to see 2 digit numbers for Sunday. There's literally no doubt now that the vaccine is working, is there?0
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If the SNP fail to win a majority after Brexit it clearly for most Scots is notCarnyx said:
I think you have misunderstood./ Brexit IS the material change in circumstances. Sufficient in itself.HYUFD said:
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendumCarnyx said:Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
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I'm loathe to comment on Scottish politics because the usual suspects just abuse anyone who isn't 100% Scottish and 100% on favour of independence, however I'm going to anyway.
The most interesting result will be if the direction of travel continues and with better leadership both Labour and Tory pick up wavering unionist voters that are now looking at what kind of country the SNP are building.
The way the SNP leadership have used the power of the state to persecute a political enemy has been a real eye opener for me. The lack of separation between the political process and state processes is a huge concern for me in the UK, but in Scotland there doesn't really seem to be one.
When the government lose court cases (as with A50 and the prorogation) it strengthens our nation to have a part of the state that is independent from political persuasion and forces the government to seek democratic mandates.
Honestly, I understand that independence is a hugely important aim and were I Scottish I'd be in favour of it. However, I'd also be very worried about the SNP turning into the ANC of Scotland and just ruining the country with corruption and state targeting of political rivals. Honestly, I'd rather stick with an imperfect Union than risk that outcome.
What, to me, looked like a formality a few months ago (SNP majority, independence) now looks less and less likely. Using the state apparatus to target people is just wrong and it's going to turn people away from the SNP and their cause. It's a real red line.12 -
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I was basing my view off the 2016 (and earlier) results, in which a gap of 5 points is the maximum (save for the Greens, who play for second votes, but even then that's a 6% difference). Not 12% as here, if we believe it.Carnyx said:
Not sure what you mean, it's been a feature for some time. The problem is the gerrymandered d'Hondt system - some folk think it is a waste of your vote to vote twice over for a party which is likely to win in the constituency so if they vote SNP [edit] on the constiotuency they vote Green on the list. Or else, Greens vote SNP or Labour (or LD) rather than Green in the constituency. Combination of the two I'd say.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I must admit I don't really have a good answer for why the gap between constituency and list votes for the SNP (regardless of the overall level) differ so much, much more than at the last election.HYUFD said:Note on the list vote the SNP is already below the 41% it got in 2016 now at 38% on this poll.
On the constituency vote it is still up on the 46.5% it got then but if Labour under its new leader Anas Sarwar makes inroads even that could be under threat
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1366338126097055744?s=20
Any thoughts on whether that gap is real?1 -
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Compared to England where the Tories are now massively dominant now thanks to Brexit? The divergence between the two nations is already much worse than it was.HYUFD said:
If the SNP fail to win a majority after Brexit it clearly for most Scots is notCarnyx said:
I think you have misunderstood./ Brexit IS the material change in circumstances. Sufficient in itself.HYUFD said:
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendumCarnyx said:Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
And you are moving the goalposts yet again. You need to include the Scottish Greens, too.0 -
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I still think SNP and their little helpers the Greens will get a majority between them.MaxPB said:I'm loathe to comment on Scottish politics because the usual suspects just abuse anyone who isn't 100% Scottish and 100% on favour of independence, however I'm going to anyway.
The most interesting result will be if the direction of travel continues and with better leadership both Labour and Tory pick up wavering unionist voters that are now looking at what kind of country the SNP are building.
The way the SNP leadership have used the power of the state to persecute a political enemy has been a real eye opener for me. The lack of separation between the political process and state processes is a huge concern for me in the UK, but in Scotland there doesn't really seem to be one.
When the government lose court cases (as with A50 and the prorogation) it strengthens our nation to have a part of the state that is independent from political persuasion and forces the government to seek democratic mandates.
Honestly, I understand that independence is a hugely important aim and were I Scottish I'd be in favour of it. However, I'd also be very worried about the SNP turning into the ANC of Scotland and just ruining the country with corruption and state targeting of political rivals. Honestly, I'd rather stick with an imperfect Union than risk that outcome.
What, to me, looked like a formality a few months ago (SNP majority, independence) now looks less and less likely. Using the state apparatus to target people is just wrong and it's going to turn people away from the SNP and their cause. It's a real red line.
But IF an independence vote follows - which I don't think will happen in the short term - then whoever is leading SNP at the time will end up disappointed!0 -
No. There was already an SNP and Green majority at Holyrood even before the Brexit vote. If the SNP cannot even match the majority they got in 2011 before the 2014 referendum after Brexit there is absolutely zero grounds for any indyref2 and this Tory government will correctly and easily refuse a legal indyref2 and the 2014 'once in a generation' referendum will be respected.Richard_Tyndall said:
Not so. If the pro-Independence parties maintain a majority then the material change of Brexit is more than enough justification for a referendum. They will have both the electoral support and the material reason to call one. Whether they will win is another matter but that is for the Scottish people to decide. They deserve to be given that chance.HYUFD said:
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 (given the 2016 election was before Brexit) and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendumCarnyx said:Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
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Just as with US politics, I don't really comment on politics in Scotland - if the people want to leave then that's a shame but fine by me.
But one thing I think is certainly the case - that Brexit was indeed a material change of circumstances. And hence a new indyref should be held on that basis.3 -
Moving goalpostsHYUFD said:
No. There was already an SNP and Green majority at Holyrood even before the Brexit vote. If the SNP cannot even match the majority they got in 2011 before the 2014 referendum after Brexit there is absolutely zero grounds for any indyref2 and this Tory government will correctly and easily refuse a legal indyref2 and the 2014 'once in a generation' referendum will be respected.Richard_Tyndall said:
Not so. If the pro-Independence parties maintain a majority then the material change of Brexit is more than enough justification for a referendum. They will have both the electoral support and the material reason to call one. Whether they will win is another matter but that is for the Scottish people to decide. They deserve to be given that chance.HYUFD said:
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 (given the 2016 election was before Brexit) and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendumCarnyx said:Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
Moving goalposts
Moving goalposts1 -
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No we don't, the Greens are not an explicitly nationalist party like the SNP, it was only the SNP majority in 2011 which led Cameron and the UK government to even consider allowing the 2014 independence referendum. If no SNP majority at all the UK government will of course refuse to even consider allowing a legal indyref2Carnyx said:
Compared to England where the Tories are now massively dominant now thanks to Brexit? The divergence between the two nations is already much worse than it was.HYUFD said:
If the SNP fail to win a majority after Brexit it clearly for most Scots is notCarnyx said:
I think you have misunderstood./ Brexit IS the material change in circumstances. Sufficient in itself.HYUFD said:
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendumCarnyx said:Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
And you are moving the goalposts yet again. You need to include the Scottish Greens, too.0 -
I think this may be an argument you've put forward before.HYUFD said:
No. There was already an SNP and Green majority at Holyrood even before the Brexit vote. If the SNP cannot even match the majority they got in 2011 before the 2014 referendum after Brexit there is absolutely zero grounds for any indyref2 and this Tory government will correctly and easily refuse a legal indyref2 and the 2014 'once in a generation' referendum will be respected.Richard_Tyndall said:
Not so. If the pro-Independence parties maintain a majority then the material change of Brexit is more than enough justification for a referendum. They will have both the electoral support and the material reason to call one. Whether they will win is another matter but that is for the Scottish people to decide. They deserve to be given that chance.HYUFD said:
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 (given the 2016 election was before Brexit) and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendumCarnyx said:Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
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Yes, but they didn't vote against Brexit with a substantial majority!Richard_Tyndall said:1 -
At the last election the SNP and Scottish Greens — who support independence — won an overall majority, with 69 seats. If the unionist parties can win a majority this time itll be a pretty significant achievement.1
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The Greens are in support of independence. To argue that they should be ignored is a remarkable piece of intellectual tergiversation. And not one to be encouraged in rational debate, above all on PB where people's bets depend on rational analysis free of moving goalposts.HYUFD said:
No we don't, the Greens are not an explicitly nationalist party like the SNP, it was only the SNP majority in 2011 which led Cameron and the UK government to even consider allowing the 2014 independence referendum. If no SNP majority at all the UK government will of course refuse to even consider allowing a legal indyref2Carnyx said:
Compared to England where the Tories are now massively dominant now thanks to Brexit? The divergence between the two nations is already much worse than it was.HYUFD said:
If the SNP fail to win a majority after Brexit it clearly for most Scots is notCarnyx said:
I think you have misunderstood./ Brexit IS the material change in circumstances. Sufficient in itself.HYUFD said:
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendumCarnyx said:Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
And you are moving the goalposts yet again. You need to include the Scottish Greens, too.
Remember: Mrs T herself accepted that a simple majority of SNP MPs in Scottish MPs was sufficient to trigger independence tout court. (not in quite those words, but what other way was there then to obtain a majority statement of intent?)0 -
Piers Morgan - not very self aware is he
https://twitter.com/addicted2newz/status/13661227088121118754 -
For the SNP if it was raining tomorrow that would be a 'material change of circumstances.'TOPPING said:Just as with US politics, I don't really comment on politics in Scotland - if the people want to leave then that's a shame but fine by me.
But one thing I think is certainly the case - that Brexit was indeed a material change of circumstances. And hence a new indyref should be held on that basis.
In fact on the latest poll Yes is only on 43%, even below the 45% it got in 2014 despite Brexit, when you include don't knows
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1365978299265150978?s=200 -
I'm sure it would be for them. But I fail to see how anyone can argue that taking Scotland out of the EU, with all the attendant changes of process and status does not constitute a material change.HYUFD said:
For the SNP if it was raining tomorrow that would be a 'material change of circumstances.'TOPPING said:Just as with US politics, I don't really comment on politics in Scotland - if the people want to leave then that's a shame but fine by me.
But one thing I think is certainly the case - that Brexit was indeed a material change of circumstances. And hence a new indyref should be held on that basis.0 -
She did not actually say that, all she said in the Downing Street Years was ' “The Tory Party is not, of course, an English party, but a Unionist one. If it sometimes seems English to some Scots, that is because the Union is inevitably dominated by England by reason of its greater population. The Scots, being an historic nation with a proud past, will inevitably resent some expressions of this fact from time to time.Carnyx said:
The Greens are in support of independence. To argue that they should be ignored is a remarkable piece of intellectual tergiversation. And not one to be encouraged in rational debate, above all on PB where people's bets depend on rational analysis free of moving goalposts.HYUFD said:
No we don't, the Greens are not an explicitly nationalist party like the SNP, it was only the SNP majority in 2011 which led Cameron and the UK government to even consider allowing the 2014 independence referendum. If no SNP majority at all the UK government will of course refuse to even consider allowing a legal indyref2Carnyx said:
Compared to England where the Tories are now massively dominant now thanks to Brexit? The divergence between the two nations is already much worse than it was.HYUFD said:
If the SNP fail to win a majority after Brexit it clearly for most Scots is notCarnyx said:
I think you have misunderstood./ Brexit IS the material change in circumstances. Sufficient in itself.HYUFD said:
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendumCarnyx said:Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
And you are moving the goalposts yet again. You need to include the Scottish Greens, too.
Remember: Mrs T herself accepted that a simple majority of SNP MPs in Scottish MPs was sufficient to trigger independence tout court. (not in quite those words, but what other way was there then to obtain a majority statement of intent?)
“As a nation, they have an undoubted right to national self-determination; thus far they have exercised that right by joining and remaining in the Union. Should they determine on independence, no English party or politician would stand in their way, however much we might regret their departure.”' Never that a majority of SNP MPs alone would be enough.
However Thatcher is no longer UK PM or even alive, Boris is0 -
No, it wouldn't - it's always raining in Scotland, almost. It's the sunny bits that are unusual.HYUFD said:
For the SNP if it was raining tomorrow that would be a 'material change of circumstances.'TOPPING said:Just as with US politics, I don't really comment on politics in Scotland - if the people want to leave then that's a shame but fine by me.
But one thing I think is certainly the case - that Brexit was indeed a material change of circumstances. And hence a new indyref should be held on that basis.
In fact on the latest poll Yes is only on 43%, even below the 45% it got in 2014 despite Brexit, when you include don't knows
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1365978299265150978?s=20
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The point isHYUFD said:
She did not actually say that, all she said in the Downing Street Years was ' “The Tory Party is not, of course, an English party, but a Unionist one. If it sometimes seems English to some Scots, that is because the Union is inevitably dominated by England by reason of its greater population. The Scots, being an historic nation with a proud past, will inevitably resent some expressions of this fact from time to time.Carnyx said:
The Greens are in support of independence. To argue that they should be ignored is a remarkable piece of intellectual tergiversation. And not one to be encouraged in rational debate, above all on PB where people's bets depend on rational analysis free of moving goalposts.HYUFD said:
No we don't, the Greens are not an explicitly nationalist party like the SNP, it was only the SNP majority in 2011 which led Cameron and the UK government to even consider allowing the 2014 independence referendum. If no SNP majority at all the UK government will of course refuse to even consider allowing a legal indyref2Carnyx said:
Compared to England where the Tories are now massively dominant now thanks to Brexit? The divergence between the two nations is already much worse than it was.HYUFD said:
If the SNP fail to win a majority after Brexit it clearly for most Scots is notCarnyx said:
I think you have misunderstood./ Brexit IS the material change in circumstances. Sufficient in itself.HYUFD said:
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendumCarnyx said:Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
And you are moving the goalposts yet again. You need to include the Scottish Greens, too.
Remember: Mrs T herself accepted that a simple majority of SNP MPs in Scottish MPs was sufficient to trigger independence tout court. (not in quite those words, but what other way was there then to obtain a majority statement of intent?)
“As a nation, they have an undoubted right to national self-determination; thus far they have exercised that right by joining and remaining in the Union. Should they determine on independence, no English party or politician would stand in their way, however much we might regret their departure.”' Never that a majority of SNP MPs alone would be enough.
However Thatcher is no longer UK PM or even alive, Boris is
(a) how else would they determine on independence? Other than by a majiroty of FPTP MPs at the time?
(b) it shows just how far you've moved the goalposts. All the way out of Wembley to Epping.1 -
Yes, but she is more of a PM when long since dead than Boris Johnson is while still very much alive.HYUFD said:
She did not actually say that, all she said in the Downing Street Years was ' “The Tory Party is not, of course, an English party, but a Unionist one. If it sometimes seems English to some Scots, that is because the Union is inevitably dominated by England by reason of its greater population. The Scots, being an historic nation with a proud past, will inevitably resent some expressions of this fact from time to time.Carnyx said:
The Greens are in support of independence. To argue that they should be ignored is a remarkable piece of intellectual tergiversation. And not one to be encouraged in rational debate, above all on PB where people's bets depend on rational analysis free of moving goalposts.HYUFD said:
No we don't, the Greens are not an explicitly nationalist party like the SNP, it was only the SNP majority in 2011 which led Cameron and the UK government to even consider allowing the 2014 independence referendum. If no SNP majority at all the UK government will of course refuse to even consider allowing a legal indyref2Carnyx said:
Compared to England where the Tories are now massively dominant now thanks to Brexit? The divergence between the two nations is already much worse than it was.HYUFD said:
If the SNP fail to win a majority after Brexit it clearly for most Scots is notCarnyx said:
I think you have misunderstood./ Brexit IS the material change in circumstances. Sufficient in itself.HYUFD said:
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendumCarnyx said:Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
And you are moving the goalposts yet again. You need to include the Scottish Greens, too.
Remember: Mrs T herself accepted that a simple majority of SNP MPs in Scottish MPs was sufficient to trigger independence tout court. (not in quite those words, but what other way was there then to obtain a majority statement of intent?)
“As a nation, they have an undoubted right to national self-determination; thus far they have exercised that right by joining and remaining in the Union. Should they determine on independence, no English party or politician would stand in their way, however much we might regret their departure.”' Never that a majority of SNP MPs alone would be enough.
However Thatcher is no longer UK PM or even alive, Boris is0 -
They determined on independence in the 'once in a generation' 2014 referendumCarnyx said:
The point isHYUFD said:
She did not actually say that, all she said in the Downing Street Years was ' “The Tory Party is not, of course, an English party, but a Unionist one. If it sometimes seems English to some Scots, that is because the Union is inevitably dominated by England by reason of its greater population. The Scots, being an historic nation with a proud past, will inevitably resent some expressions of this fact from time to time.Carnyx said:
The Greens are in support of independence. To argue that they should be ignored is a remarkable piece of intellectual tergiversation. And not one to be encouraged in rational debate, above all on PB where people's bets depend on rational analysis free of moving goalposts.HYUFD said:
No we don't, the Greens are not an explicitly nationalist party like the SNP, it was only the SNP majority in 2011 which led Cameron and the UK government to even consider allowing the 2014 independence referendum. If no SNP majority at all the UK government will of course refuse to even consider allowing a legal indyref2Carnyx said:
Compared to England where the Tories are now massively dominant now thanks to Brexit? The divergence between the two nations is already much worse than it was.HYUFD said:
If the SNP fail to win a majority after Brexit it clearly for most Scots is notCarnyx said:
I think you have misunderstood./ Brexit IS the material change in circumstances. Sufficient in itself.HYUFD said:
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendumCarnyx said:Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
And you are moving the goalposts yet again. You need to include the Scottish Greens, too.
Remember: Mrs T herself accepted that a simple majority of SNP MPs in Scottish MPs was sufficient to trigger independence tout court. (not in quite those words, but what other way was there then to obtain a majority statement of intent?)
“As a nation, they have an undoubted right to national self-determination; thus far they have exercised that right by joining and remaining in the Union. Should they determine on independence, no English party or politician would stand in their way, however much we might regret their departure.”' Never that a majority of SNP MPs alone would be enough.
However Thatcher is no longer UK PM or even alive, Boris is
(a) how else would they determine on independence? Other than by a majiroty of FPTP MPs at the time?
(b) it shows just how far you've moved the goalposts. All the way out of Wembley to Epping.0 -
It seems atypically high but one factor is that the Greens generally don't stand in any constituency and the vast majority of their supporters tend to vote for the SNP in the constituencies as a result.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I must admit I don't really have a good answer for why the gap between constituency and list votes for the SNP (regardless of the overall level) differ so much, much more than at the last election.HYUFD said:Note on the list vote the SNP is already below the 41% it got in 2016 now at 38% on this poll.
On the constituency vote it is still up on the 46.5% it got then but if Labour under its new leader Anas Sarwar makes inroads even that could be under threat
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1366338126097055744?s=20
Any thoughts on whether that gap is real?
Edit this is also because a lot of "Green" support is in fact SNP supporters who are smart enough to realise that their party will not get list seats so they vote for a different independence party on the list.1 -
The problem with this is that you have to concede No is on 44% - 11 points below what it got in 2014.HYUFD said:
For the SNP if it was raining tomorrow that would be a 'material change of circumstances.'TOPPING said:Just as with US politics, I don't really comment on politics in Scotland - if the people want to leave then that's a shame but fine by me.
But one thing I think is certainly the case - that Brexit was indeed a material change of circumstances. And hence a new indyref should be held on that basis.
In fact on the latest poll Yes is only on 43%, even below the 45% it got in 2014 despite Brexit, when you include don't knows
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1365978299265150978?s=202 -
I know that there is back-filling still to come but that decline remains stunningly linear...Malmesbury said:UK deaths
1 -
Yet still ahead, thus no material change in circumstancesBournville said:
The problem with this is that you have to concede No is on 44% - 11 points below what it got in 2014.HYUFD said:
For the SNP if it was raining tomorrow that would be a 'material change of circumstances.'TOPPING said:Just as with US politics, I don't really comment on politics in Scotland - if the people want to leave then that's a shame but fine by me.
But one thing I think is certainly the case - that Brexit was indeed a material change of circumstances. And hence a new indyref should be held on that basis.
In fact on the latest poll Yes is only on 43%, even below the 45% it got in 2014 despite Brexit, when you include don't knows
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1365978299265150978?s=200 -
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2021/mar/01/amanda-gorman-white-translator-quits-marieke-lucas-rijneveld
News from Gen Z, or, the revolution eats its own1 -
It was also very linear the last time it fell away after the first wave, IIRC.Lennon said:
I know that there is back-filling still to come but that decline remains stunningly linear...Malmesbury said:UK deaths
0 -
Interesting - shit is getting realAndy_JS said:3 -
" It is a far, far better thing that I do, than I have ever done; it is a far, far better rest that I go to, than I have ever known" as Swinney might have said on losing his job to make sure that Roddy Dunlop QC's advice cannot be used to crucify the blessed Nicola on Wednesday.ydoethur said:0 -
It just means that if it continues we should be at single figure deaths in about a week... which I'm not really expecting btw - it just keeps confounding me by not turning yet.Malmesbury said:
It was also very linear the last time it fell away after the first wave, IIRC.Lennon said:
I know that there is back-filling still to come but that decline remains stunningly linear...Malmesbury said:UK deaths
0 -
-
Steeper slope this time (no idea why).Malmesbury said:
It was also very linear the last time it fell away after the first wave, IIRC.Lennon said:
I know that there is back-filling still to come but that decline remains stunningly linear...Malmesbury said:UK deaths
0 -
Exactly so. There is absolutely nothing for No to be smug about in these numbers. Much to be done.Bournville said:
The problem with this is that you have to concede No is on 44% - 11 points below what it got in 2014.HYUFD said:
For the SNP if it was raining tomorrow that would be a 'material change of circumstances.'TOPPING said:Just as with US politics, I don't really comment on politics in Scotland - if the people want to leave then that's a shame but fine by me.
But one thing I think is certainly the case - that Brexit was indeed a material change of circumstances. And hence a new indyref should be held on that basis.
In fact on the latest poll Yes is only on 43%, even below the 45% it got in 2014 despite Brexit, when you include don't knows
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1365978299265150978?s=201 -
-
Steady. This is Scotland after all.Big_G_NorthWales said:4 -
Question: does a vote of confidence in an individual minister have any effect in the Scottish Parliament? It might be embarrassing, but is his boss required to listen and sack him off, or is the only sure fire means of deposing Swinney to VONC the entire Government?Floater said:
Interesting - shit is getting realAndy_JS said:0 -
If you don't think Brexit was a material change then why have you spent the last 4 years so adamant that it should be enacted? You and I both know that the Unionist side campaigned strongly on the fact that the only way to secure the future of Scotland within the EU was to vote against independence and now that we have Brexited, against the wishes of a very clear majority of Scots, it is only right that the question should be revisited.HYUFD said:
No. There was already an SNP and Green majority at Holyrood even before the Brexit vote. If the SNP cannot even match the majority they got in 2011 before the 2014 referendum after Brexit there is absolutely zero grounds for any indyref2 and this Tory government will correctly and easily refuse a legal indyref2 and the 2014 'once in a generation' referendum will be respected.Richard_Tyndall said:
Not so. If the pro-Independence parties maintain a majority then the material change of Brexit is more than enough justification for a referendum. They will have both the electoral support and the material reason to call one. Whether they will win is another matter but that is for the Scottish people to decide. They deserve to be given that chance.HYUFD said:
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 (given the 2016 election was before Brexit) and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendumCarnyx said:Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
You may not wish Scotland to become independent but to deny them that choice is thoroughly undemocratic.2 -
Looks like the special chips the government put in the vaccine were worth every penny...Scott_xP said:
2 -
I wonder if it occurs to Corbyn supporters that without Corbyn they might be doing worse than with Starmer.Scott_xP said:1 -
Vaccinationsturbotubbs said:
Steeper slope this time (no idea why).Malmesbury said:
It was also very linear the last time it fell away after the first wave, IIRC.Lennon said:
I know that there is back-filling still to come but that decline remains stunningly linear...Malmesbury said:UK deaths
1 -
"-This is turnin' into a hell of a mess, ain't it, Sheriff?PoodleInASlipstream said:
-If it isn't, it'll do until the mess gets here"0 -
To have one former leader of the SNP embroiled in all sorts of legal shit may be regarded as a misfortune. To have it happen to both of them looks like carelessness.DavidL said:
" It is a far, far better thing that I do, than I have ever done; it is a far, far better rest that I go to, than I have ever known" as Swinney might have said on losing his job to make sure that Roddy Dunlop QC's advice cannot be used to crucify the blessed Nicola on Wednesday.ydoethur said:1 -
Starmer has 2021 to turn that around, or he is toast....Scott_xP said:0 -
-
Swinney can style it out if Nippy wants him to stayBlack_Rook said:Question: does a vote of confidence in an individual minister have any effect in the Scottish Parliament? It might be embarrassing, but is his boss required to listen and sack him off, or is the only sure fire means of deposing Swinney to VONC the entire Government?
0 -
You were saying?Nigel_Foremain said:
Yes, but she is more of a PM when long since dead than Boris Johnson is while still very much alive.HYUFD said:
She did not actually say that, all she said in the Downing Street Years was ' “The Tory Party is not, of course, an English party, but a Unionist one. If it sometimes seems English to some Scots, that is because the Union is inevitably dominated by England by reason of its greater population. The Scots, being an historic nation with a proud past, will inevitably resent some expressions of this fact from time to time.Carnyx said:
The Greens are in support of independence. To argue that they should be ignored is a remarkable piece of intellectual tergiversation. And not one to be encouraged in rational debate, above all on PB where people's bets depend on rational analysis free of moving goalposts.HYUFD said:
No we don't, the Greens are not an explicitly nationalist party like the SNP, it was only the SNP majority in 2011 which led Cameron and the UK government to even consider allowing the 2014 independence referendum. If no SNP majority at all the UK government will of course refuse to even consider allowing a legal indyref2Carnyx said:
Compared to England where the Tories are now massively dominant now thanks to Brexit? The divergence between the two nations is already much worse than it was.HYUFD said:
If the SNP fail to win a majority after Brexit it clearly for most Scots is notCarnyx said:
I think you have misunderstood./ Brexit IS the material change in circumstances. Sufficient in itself.HYUFD said:
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendumCarnyx said:Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
And you are moving the goalposts yet again. You need to include the Scottish Greens, too.
Remember: Mrs T herself accepted that a simple majority of SNP MPs in Scottish MPs was sufficient to trigger independence tout court. (not in quite those words, but what other way was there then to obtain a majority statement of intent?)
“As a nation, they have an undoubted right to national self-determination; thus far they have exercised that right by joining and remaining in the Union. Should they determine on independence, no English party or politician would stand in their way, however much we might regret their departure.”' Never that a majority of SNP MPs alone would be enough.
However Thatcher is no longer UK PM or even alive, Boris is
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/13664331483730042881 -
A thread on how Brexit has fucked the holiday industry, completely masked by Covid...
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/13664334636756090920 -
I doubt if she wants him to stay - he would be a useful sacrificial lamb given his abject performance in both his roles - but equally I doubt if she can afford to lose him at this moment.Scott_xP said:
Swinney can style it out if Nippy wants him to stayBlack_Rook said:Question: does a vote of confidence in an individual minister have any effect in the Scottish Parliament? It might be embarrassing, but is his boss required to listen and sack him off, or is the only sure fire means of deposing Swinney to VONC the entire Government?
0 -
No it isn't, it is entirely in accordance with the Scotland Act 1998 in which Union matters are reserved to Westminster.Richard_Tyndall said:
If you don't think Brexit was a material change then why have you spent the last 4 years so adamant that it should be enacted? You and I both know that the Unionist side campaigned strongly on the fact that the only way to secure the future of Scotland within the EU was to vote against independence and now that we have Brexited, against the wishes of a very clear majority of Scots, it is only right that the question should be revisited.HYUFD said:
No. There was already an SNP and Green majority at Holyrood even before the Brexit vote. If the SNP cannot even match the majority they got in 2011 before the 2014 referendum after Brexit there is absolutely zero grounds for any indyref2 and this Tory government will correctly and easily refuse a legal indyref2 and the 2014 'once in a generation' referendum will be respected.Richard_Tyndall said:
Not so. If the pro-Independence parties maintain a majority then the material change of Brexit is more than enough justification for a referendum. They will have both the electoral support and the material reason to call one. Whether they will win is another matter but that is for the Scottish people to decide. They deserve to be given that chance.HYUFD said:
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 (given the 2016 election was before Brexit) and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendumCarnyx said:Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
You may not wish Scotland to become independent but to deny them that choice is thoroughly undemocratic.
We Tories have a majority at Westminster, have been clear 2014 was a once in a generation vote and will not therefore allow a legal indyref2.
If it was such a material change anyway Yes would be over 62% given 62% of Scots voted Remain in 2016, not just 43% ie even less than it got in 2014
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1365978299265150978?s=200 -
-
I think you may be dancing on pinheads. If the Scottish people vote in the SNP, absolutely ghastly though the SNP are (the genuine nasty party), they know what they are voting for. Those that don't want the risk of the upheaval of independence know it is best not to vote for the SNP. I think it will be politically impossible and counterproductive for Bozo to think he can play the part of Cnut, though he does look the part!HYUFD said:
No. There was already an SNP and Green majority at Holyrood even before the Brexit vote. If the SNP cannot even match the majority they got in 2011 before the 2014 referendum after Brexit there is absolutely zero grounds for any indyref2 and this Tory government will correctly and easily refuse a legal indyref2 and the 2014 'once in a generation' referendum will be respected.Richard_Tyndall said:
Not so. If the pro-Independence parties maintain a majority then the material change of Brexit is more than enough justification for a referendum. They will have both the electoral support and the material reason to call one. Whether they will win is another matter but that is for the Scottish people to decide. They deserve to be given that chance.HYUFD said:
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 (given the 2016 election was before Brexit) and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendumCarnyx said:Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
0 -
I trust this Downing Street briefing is to announce a successful drone strike on Pascal Gaüzère?
Wales v England referee Pascal Gauzere admits he got both tries wrong
The Frenchman has come under severe criticism after Saturday's Six Nations clash, with World Rugby's Head of Match Officials now saying Gauzere has admitted his mistakes
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/rugby/rugby-news/wales-v-england-referee-pascal-19938253
The only equitable solution is to replay the match and never let a Frenchman referee an England match.0 -
.
Can you explain how that has "fucked the holiday industry"?Scott_xP said:A thread on how Brexit has fucked the holiday industry, completely masked by Covid...
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/13664334636756090922 -
Well, makes sense, right? You can't have a white person translate words written by a black poet, any more than you could have a chart topping white rapper or a successful black golferEPG said:https://www.theguardian.com/books/2021/mar/01/amanda-gorman-white-translator-quits-marieke-lucas-rijneveld
News from Gen Z, or, the revolution eats its own
Other than the inauguration stuff, I'm not familiar with Gorman's work. If much of it is about being young and black in America then you could imagine that the ideal translator might be a young, black Dutch-American as that person might pick words that better convey some of the bits between the lines* (in the same way that a Dutch farming almanac might be ideally translated by someone with farming experience). But it's far from a certainty.
*depending on experiences, a better translator might be a White Dutch American growing up in a similar area, rather than a Black Dutch person with no experience of America.0 -
I think in this case it is what the bookies call a related contingency.ydoethur said:
To have one former leader of the SNP embroiled in all sorts of legal shit may be regarded as a misfortune. To have it happen to both of them looks like carelessness.DavidL said:
" It is a far, far better thing that I do, than I have ever done; it is a far, far better rest that I go to, than I have ever known" as Swinney might have said on losing his job to make sure that Roddy Dunlop QC's advice cannot be used to crucify the blessed Nicola on Wednesday.ydoethur said:2 -
There seems to be almost as big a pollster variance (on the list votes at least) as the recent Welsh polls.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I must admit I don't really have a good answer for why the gap between constituency and list votes for the SNP (regardless of the overall level) differ so much, much more than at the last election.HYUFD said:Note on the list vote the SNP is already below the 41% it got in 2016 now at 38% on this poll.
On the constituency vote it is still up on the 46.5% it got then but if Labour under its new leader Anas Sarwar makes inroads even that could be under threat
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1366338126097055744?s=20
Any thoughts on whether that gap is real?
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1366351772147671040?s=200 -
Starmer will be thanking his lucky stars the Tories won the 2017 county council elections by 11%, thus even 8% behind on the new Survation he can still claim a 'swing' and council seat gains from the Tories in May.MarqueeMark said:
Starmer has 2021 to turn that around, or he is toast....Scott_xP said:
If it was just the 2016 local seats up again, when Labour and the Tories were neck and neck, the headlines would likely be Labour going backwards.0 -
I will save you the effort by providing electoral calculus prediction of a 54 seat conservative majorityHYUFD said:1 -
Unfortunately there is a persistent and unpleasant variant in Scotland that is proving resistant. We need to ramp up the effect.BluestBlue said:
Looks like the special chips the government put in the vaccine were worth every penny...Scott_xP said:2 -
That's a huge difference. Any clues as to what might be causing it?Theuniondivvie said:
There seems to be almost as big a pollster variance (on the list votes at least) as the recent Welsh polls.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I must admit I don't really have a good answer for why the gap between constituency and list votes for the SNP (regardless of the overall level) differ so much, much more than at the last election.HYUFD said:Note on the list vote the SNP is already below the 41% it got in 2016 now at 38% on this poll.
On the constituency vote it is still up on the 46.5% it got then but if Labour under its new leader Anas Sarwar makes inroads even that could be under threat
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1366338126097055744?s=20
Any thoughts on whether that gap is real?
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1366351772147671040?s=200 -
IDS would still lose Chingford unfortunately even with that tiny swing since 2019Big_G_NorthWales said:
I will save you the effort by providing electoral calculus prediction of a 54 seat conservative majorityHYUFD said:0 -
That poll has the nasty, grinding-rock feeling of the Great British electorate starting to decide that SKS is a bit of a dud. That tends to only go one way, once it sets in.BluestBlue said:
You were saying?Nigel_Foremain said:
Yes, but she is more of a PM when long since dead than Boris Johnson is while still very much alive.HYUFD said:
She did not actually say that, all she said in the Downing Street Years was ' “The Tory Party is not, of course, an English party, but a Unionist one. If it sometimes seems English to some Scots, that is because the Union is inevitably dominated by England by reason of its greater population. The Scots, being an historic nation with a proud past, will inevitably resent some expressions of this fact from time to time.Carnyx said:
The Greens are in support of independence. To argue that they should be ignored is a remarkable piece of intellectual tergiversation. And not one to be encouraged in rational debate, above all on PB where people's bets depend on rational analysis free of moving goalposts.HYUFD said:
No we don't, the Greens are not an explicitly nationalist party like the SNP, it was only the SNP majority in 2011 which led Cameron and the UK government to even consider allowing the 2014 independence referendum. If no SNP majority at all the UK government will of course refuse to even consider allowing a legal indyref2Carnyx said:
Compared to England where the Tories are now massively dominant now thanks to Brexit? The divergence between the two nations is already much worse than it was.HYUFD said:
If the SNP fail to win a majority after Brexit it clearly for most Scots is notCarnyx said:
I think you have misunderstood./ Brexit IS the material change in circumstances. Sufficient in itself.HYUFD said:
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendumCarnyx said:Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
And you are moving the goalposts yet again. You need to include the Scottish Greens, too.
Remember: Mrs T herself accepted that a simple majority of SNP MPs in Scottish MPs was sufficient to trigger independence tout court. (not in quite those words, but what other way was there then to obtain a majority statement of intent?)
“As a nation, they have an undoubted right to national self-determination; thus far they have exercised that right by joining and remaining in the Union. Should they determine on independence, no English party or politician would stand in their way, however much we might regret their departure.”' Never that a majority of SNP MPs alone would be enough.
However Thatcher is no longer UK PM or even alive, Boris is
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/13664331483730042882 -
So we should have won by two points, not sixteen?TheScreamingEagles said:I trust this Downing Street briefing is to announce a successful drone strike on Pascal Gaüzère?
Wales v England referee Pascal Gauzere admits he got both tries wrong
The Frenchman has come under severe criticism after Saturday's Six Nations clash, with World Rugby's Head of Match Officials now saying Gauzere has admitted his mistakes
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/rugby/rugby-news/wales-v-england-referee-pascal-19938253
The only equitable solution is to replay the match and never let a Frenchman referee an England match.0 -
If the SNP fail to get a majority but only scrape back again with the Greens the Scots will not even be voting majority SNP anywayNigel_Foremain said:
I think you may be dancing on pinheads. If the Scottish people vote in the SNP, absolutely ghastly though the SNP are (the genuine nasty party), they know what they are voting for. Those that don't want the risk of the upheaval of independence know it is best not to vote for the SNP. I think it will be politically impossible and counterproductive for Bozo to think he can play the part of Cnut, though he does look the part!HYUFD said:
No. There was already an SNP and Green majority at Holyrood even before the Brexit vote. If the SNP cannot even match the majority they got in 2011 before the 2014 referendum after Brexit there is absolutely zero grounds for any indyref2 and this Tory government will correctly and easily refuse a legal indyref2 and the 2014 'once in a generation' referendum will be respected.Richard_Tyndall said:
Not so. If the pro-Independence parties maintain a majority then the material change of Brexit is more than enough justification for a referendum. They will have both the electoral support and the material reason to call one. Whether they will win is another matter but that is for the Scottish people to decide. They deserve to be given that chance.HYUFD said:
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 (given the 2016 election was before Brexit) and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendumCarnyx said:Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
0 -
Oh don't be so stupidly partisan. For one, I wasn't comparing Bozo with Starmer (he is leader of Labour btw, and is as yet largely untested!), I was comparing Johnson with Margaret Thatcher, who was, love her or loathe her, a colossus. The only thing about Boris er er er Johnson is his stomach, and the colossal consequences of his incompetence ("oh but the vaccines the vaccines" you will no doubt nauseously and obsequiously cry in your inability to point to anything else he has got lucky with while in office).BluestBlue said:
You were saying?Nigel_Foremain said:
Yes, but she is more of a PM when long since dead than Boris Johnson is while still very much alive.HYUFD said:
She did not actually say that, all she said in the Downing Street Years was ' “The Tory Party is not, of course, an English party, but a Unionist one. If it sometimes seems English to some Scots, that is because the Union is inevitably dominated by England by reason of its greater population. The Scots, being an historic nation with a proud past, will inevitably resent some expressions of this fact from time to time.Carnyx said:
The Greens are in support of independence. To argue that they should be ignored is a remarkable piece of intellectual tergiversation. And not one to be encouraged in rational debate, above all on PB where people's bets depend on rational analysis free of moving goalposts.HYUFD said:
No we don't, the Greens are not an explicitly nationalist party like the SNP, it was only the SNP majority in 2011 which led Cameron and the UK government to even consider allowing the 2014 independence referendum. If no SNP majority at all the UK government will of course refuse to even consider allowing a legal indyref2Carnyx said:
Compared to England where the Tories are now massively dominant now thanks to Brexit? The divergence between the two nations is already much worse than it was.HYUFD said:
If the SNP fail to win a majority after Brexit it clearly for most Scots is notCarnyx said:
I think you have misunderstood./ Brexit IS the material change in circumstances. Sufficient in itself.HYUFD said:
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendumCarnyx said:Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
And you are moving the goalposts yet again. You need to include the Scottish Greens, too.
Remember: Mrs T herself accepted that a simple majority of SNP MPs in Scottish MPs was sufficient to trigger independence tout court. (not in quite those words, but what other way was there then to obtain a majority statement of intent?)
“As a nation, they have an undoubted right to national self-determination; thus far they have exercised that right by joining and remaining in the Union. Should they determine on independence, no English party or politician would stand in their way, however much we might regret their departure.”' Never that a majority of SNP MPs alone would be enough.
However Thatcher is no longer UK PM or even alive, Boris is
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/13664331483730042881 -
Even Boris is not that lucky.HYUFD said:
IDS would still lose Chingford unfortunately even with that tiny swing since 2019Big_G_NorthWales said:
I will save you the effort by providing electoral calculus prediction of a 54 seat conservative majorityHYUFD said:2 -
@rcs1000rcs1000 said:
The thing is, this isn't as much about the EU any more. They're now receiving 2.5-3 million doses a day between AZ and Pfizer. Now, that's a lot less (proportionately) than the UK, but it's a very similar number to the US.Philip_Thompson said:Just generated this meme. The EU trying to decide how to learn lessons from Britain's vaccine rollout.
What do you think? Apologies if its not original text.
There is nothing, really, more for the EU Commission to do. Increasing numbers of vaccines will arrive. They will be later than the UK, but they're coming.
Can you explain the 2.5 - 3 million vaccine doses being delivered daily, please?
The prediction a couple of weeks ago was 55 million in March, which is about 1.6 million per day. And at that time I could not see anything else that would boost it before April.
Unless AZ have sorted their plant quickly or diverted from elsewhere, or Pfizer really ramped up.
The EU Commission - whilst UVDL is President - need to save UVDL's backside .
0 -
No, his incompetence changed the nature of the game.ydoethur said:
So we should have won by two points, not sixteen?TheScreamingEagles said:I trust this Downing Street briefing is to announce a successful drone strike on Pascal Gaüzère?
Wales v England referee Pascal Gauzere admits he got both tries wrong
The Frenchman has come under severe criticism after Saturday's Six Nations clash, with World Rugby's Head of Match Officials now saying Gauzere has admitted his mistakes
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/rugby/rugby-news/wales-v-england-referee-pascal-19938253
The only equitable solution is to replay the match and never let a Frenchman referee an England match.
The latter tries only came about due to England having to take the risks which opened up the game.0 -
Not all bad news, then.HYUFD said:
IDS would still lose Chingford unfortunately even with that tiny swing since 2019Big_G_NorthWales said:
I will save you the effort by providing electoral calculus prediction of a 54 seat conservative majorityHYUFD said:3 -
No exponential decay there. Cratering.Lennon said:
I know that there is back-filling still to come but that decline remains stunningly linear...Malmesbury said:UK deaths
Matt Hancock saying admissions to ICU in the 80+ group are down to single figures.
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You may not much like Boris but there is no doubt that in my lifetime there have only been 3 globally recognised UK PMs, Thatcher, Blair and now Boris. He is a huge personality and presence both in the UK and on the world stage.Nigel_Foremain said:
Oh don't be so stupidly partisan. For one, I wasn't comparing Bozo with Starmer (he is leader of Labour btw, and is as yet largely untested!), I was comparing Johnson with Margaret Thatcher, who was, love her or loathe her, a colossus. The only thing about Boris er er er Johnson is his stomach, and the colossal consequences of his incompetence ("oh but the vaccines the vaccines" you will no doubt nauseously and obsequiously cry in your inability to point to anything else he has got lucky with while in office).BluestBlue said:
You were saying?Nigel_Foremain said:
Yes, but she is more of a PM when long since dead than Boris Johnson is while still very much alive.HYUFD said:
She did not actually say that, all she said in the Downing Street Years was ' “The Tory Party is not, of course, an English party, but a Unionist one. If it sometimes seems English to some Scots, that is because the Union is inevitably dominated by England by reason of its greater population. The Scots, being an historic nation with a proud past, will inevitably resent some expressions of this fact from time to time.Carnyx said:
The Greens are in support of independence. To argue that they should be ignored is a remarkable piece of intellectual tergiversation. And not one to be encouraged in rational debate, above all on PB where people's bets depend on rational analysis free of moving goalposts.HYUFD said:
No we don't, the Greens are not an explicitly nationalist party like the SNP, it was only the SNP majority in 2011 which led Cameron and the UK government to even consider allowing the 2014 independence referendum. If no SNP majority at all the UK government will of course refuse to even consider allowing a legal indyref2Carnyx said:
Compared to England where the Tories are now massively dominant now thanks to Brexit? The divergence between the two nations is already much worse than it was.HYUFD said:
If the SNP fail to win a majority after Brexit it clearly for most Scots is notCarnyx said:
I think you have misunderstood./ Brexit IS the material change in circumstances. Sufficient in itself.HYUFD said:
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendumCarnyx said:Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
And you are moving the goalposts yet again. You need to include the Scottish Greens, too.
Remember: Mrs T herself accepted that a simple majority of SNP MPs in Scottish MPs was sufficient to trigger independence tout court. (not in quite those words, but what other way was there then to obtain a majority statement of intent?)
“As a nation, they have an undoubted right to national self-determination; thus far they have exercised that right by joining and remaining in the Union. Should they determine on independence, no English party or politician would stand in their way, however much we might regret their departure.”' Never that a majority of SNP MPs alone would be enough.
However Thatcher is no longer UK PM or even alive, Boris is
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/13664331483730042881
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