@Malmesbury would it be possible to do a chart showing the decline in different age rates from a peak date, scaled to using a '100' starting point for all the age groups?
Does that make sense? So we could see the percentage decline in deaths, hospital and admissions etc from the same date for each age group?
Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendum
I think you have misunderstood./ Brexit IS the material change in circumstances. Sufficient in itself.
If the SNP fail to win a majority after Brexit it clearly for most Scots is not
Compared to England where the Tories are now massively dominant now thanks to Brexit? The divergence between the two nations is already much worse than it was.
And you are moving the goalposts yet again. You need to include the Scottish Greens, too.
No we don't, the Greens are not an explicitly nationalist party like the SNP, it was only the SNP majority in 2011 which led Cameron and the UK government to even consider allowing the 2014 independence referendum. If no SNP majority at all the UK government will of course refuse to even consider allowing a legal indyref2
The Greens are in support of independence. To argue that they should be ignored is a remarkable piece of intellectual tergiversation. And not one to be encouraged in rational debate, above all on PB where people's bets depend on rational analysis free of moving goalposts.
Remember: Mrs T herself accepted that a simple majority of SNP MPs in Scottish MPs was sufficient to trigger independence tout court. (not in quite those words, but what other way was there then to obtain a majority statement of intent?)
She did not actually say that, all she said in the Downing Street Years was ' “The Tory Party is not, of course, an English party, but a Unionist one. If it sometimes seems English to some Scots, that is because the Union is inevitably dominated by England by reason of its greater population. The Scots, being an historic nation with a proud past, will inevitably resent some expressions of this fact from time to time.
“As a nation, they have an undoubted right to national self-determination; thus far they have exercised that right by joining and remaining in the Union. Should they determine on independence, no English party or politician would stand in their way, however much we might regret their departure.”' Never that a majority of SNP MPs alone would be enough.
However Thatcher is no longer UK PM or even alive, Boris is
Yes, but she is more of a PM when long since dead than Boris Johnson is while still very much alive.
Oh don't be so stupidly partisan. For one, I wasn't comparing Bozo with Starmer (he is leader of Labour btw, and is as yet largely untested!), I was comparing Johnson with Margaret Thatcher, who was, love her or loathe her, a colossus. The only thing about Boris er er er Johnson is his stomach, and the colossal consequences of his incompetence ("oh but the vaccines the vaccines" you will no doubt nauseously and obsequiously cry in your inability to point to anything else he has got lucky with while in office).
Sounds like you're the only one crying as Boris' ratings continue to climb on the back of his world-beating vaccine rollout.
It's almost as if he knows much more about how to do the job than you do...
Starmer has 2021 to turn that around, or he is toast....
Starmer will be thanking his lucky stars the Tories won the 2017 county council elections by 11%, thus even 8% behind on the new Survation he can still claim a 'swing' and council seat gains from the Tories in May.
If it was just the 2016 local seats up again, when Labour and the Tories were neck and neck, the headlines would likely be Labour going backwards.
The 2016 seats are likely to be worse for Labour than the 2017 will be good for them, so the narrative might well still be "Labour going backwards....."
I see a couple of folk on the last thread were making tearful 'I'd vote for Jackie Baillie if I could' declarations. She's no 1 on the Labour West Scotland list so she'll be re-elected as an MSP whatever happens.
One would have hoped PBers would have slightly more of a clue about Scotland's voting system than Galloway.
Van-Tam: overall effect of both vaccines in over 70s - single dose preventing 60% of illnesses and 80% of hospitalisations. Single dose of Pfizer vaccine cuts deaths by 85% in this age group (insufficient data available for AZ, which came into service later.)
Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendum
I think you have misunderstood./ Brexit IS the material change in circumstances. Sufficient in itself.
If the SNP fail to win a majority after Brexit it clearly for most Scots is not
Compared to England where the Tories are now massively dominant now thanks to Brexit? The divergence between the two nations is already much worse than it was.
And you are moving the goalposts yet again. You need to include the Scottish Greens, too.
No we don't, the Greens are not an explicitly nationalist party like the SNP, it was only the SNP majority in 2011 which led Cameron and the UK government to even consider allowing the 2014 independence referendum. If no SNP majority at all the UK government will of course refuse to even consider allowing a legal indyref2
The Greens are in support of independence. To argue that they should be ignored is a remarkable piece of intellectual tergiversation. And not one to be encouraged in rational debate, above all on PB where people's bets depend on rational analysis free of moving goalposts.
Remember: Mrs T herself accepted that a simple majority of SNP MPs in Scottish MPs was sufficient to trigger independence tout court. (not in quite those words, but what other way was there then to obtain a majority statement of intent?)
She did not actually say that, all she said in the Downing Street Years was ' “The Tory Party is not, of course, an English party, but a Unionist one. If it sometimes seems English to some Scots, that is because the Union is inevitably dominated by England by reason of its greater population. The Scots, being an historic nation with a proud past, will inevitably resent some expressions of this fact from time to time.
“As a nation, they have an undoubted right to national self-determination; thus far they have exercised that right by joining and remaining in the Union. Should they determine on independence, no English party or politician would stand in their way, however much we might regret their departure.”' Never that a majority of SNP MPs alone would be enough.
However Thatcher is no longer UK PM or even alive, Boris is
Yes, but she is more of a PM when long since dead than Boris Johnson is while still very much alive.
That poll has the nasty, grinding-rock feeling of the Great British electorate starting to decide that SKS is a bit of a dud. That tends to only go one way, once it sets in.
I don't carry a torch for Starmer ( I have been a Tory for most of my adult life), but I also heard people write Cameron off in a similar way, and also John Major. The latter went on to win a GE and the former won twice. Incidentally, I recall that John Major was once "more popular than Churchill" according to an opinion poll and headline for the Telegraph in 1991 (1st Gulf War). He wasnt so popular by 1997! Opinion polls in the middle of a pandemics or crisis mean jack shit. Starmer will also be helped by the slow realisation, even by the politically slow, that Boris Johnson is an incompetent buffoon ("oh the vaccine rollout, the vaccine rollout" the politically gullible will still be saying ad nauseam!)
Starmer has 2021 to turn that around, or he is toast....
Starmer will be thanking his lucky stars the Tories won the 2017 county council elections by 11%, thus even 8% behind on the new Survation he can still claim a 'swing' and council seat gains from the Tories in May.
If it was just the 2016 local seats up again, when Labour and the Tories were neck and neck, the headlines would likely be Labour going backwards.
The 2016 seats are likely to be worse for Labour than the 2017 will be good for them, so the narrative might well still be "Labour going backwards....."
Possibly, though they may be able to offset that if Khan wins big in London and they retake the West Midlands Mayoralty from Andy Street and overtake the Tories to take back second in Scotland too.
I trust this Downing Street briefing is to announce a successful drone strike on Pascal Gaüzère?
Wales v England referee Pascal Gauzere admits he got both tries wrong
The Frenchman has come under severe criticism after Saturday's Six Nations clash, with World Rugby's Head of Match Officials now saying Gauzere has admitted his mistakes
Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendum
I think you have misunderstood./ Brexit IS the material change in circumstances. Sufficient in itself.
If the SNP fail to win a majority after Brexit it clearly for most Scots is not
Compared to England where the Tories are now massively dominant now thanks to Brexit? The divergence between the two nations is already much worse than it was.
And you are moving the goalposts yet again. You need to include the Scottish Greens, too.
No we don't, the Greens are not an explicitly nationalist party like the SNP, it was only the SNP majority in 2011 which led Cameron and the UK government to even consider allowing the 2014 independence referendum. If no SNP majority at all the UK government will of course refuse to even consider allowing a legal indyref2
The Greens are in support of independence. To argue that they should be ignored is a remarkable piece of intellectual tergiversation. And not one to be encouraged in rational debate, above all on PB where people's bets depend on rational analysis free of moving goalposts.
Remember: Mrs T herself accepted that a simple majority of SNP MPs in Scottish MPs was sufficient to trigger independence tout court. (not in quite those words, but what other way was there then to obtain a majority statement of intent?)
She did not actually say that, all she said in the Downing Street Years was ' “The Tory Party is not, of course, an English party, but a Unionist one. If it sometimes seems English to some Scots, that is because the Union is inevitably dominated by England by reason of its greater population. The Scots, being an historic nation with a proud past, will inevitably resent some expressions of this fact from time to time.
“As a nation, they have an undoubted right to national self-determination; thus far they have exercised that right by joining and remaining in the Union. Should they determine on independence, no English party or politician would stand in their way, however much we might regret their departure.”' Never that a majority of SNP MPs alone would be enough.
However Thatcher is no longer UK PM or even alive, Boris is
Yes, but she is more of a PM when long since dead than Boris Johnson is while still very much alive.
That poll has the nasty, grinding-rock feeling of the Great British electorate starting to decide that SKS is a bit of a dud. That tends to only go one way, once it sets in.
I don't carry a torch for Starmer ( I have been a Tory for most of my adult life), but I also heard people write Cameron off in a similar way, and also John Major. The latter went on to win a GE and the former won twice. Incidentally, I recall that John Major was once "more popular than Churchill" according to an opinion poll and headline for the Telegraph in 1991 (1st Gulf War). He wasnt so popular by 1997! Opinion polls in the middle of a pandemics or crisis mean jack shit. Starmer will also be helped by the slow realisation, even by the politically slow, that Boris Johnson is an incompetent buffoon ("oh the vaccine rollout, the vaccine rollout" the politically gullible will still be saying ad nauseam!)
Starmer strikes me as a UK Hollande or Biden, he will not win because he is a greatly popular, charismatic leader but because he is a relatively offensive alternative to an unpopular populist leader, if that is the case in 2024
I see a couple of folk on the last thread were making tearful 'I'd vote for Jackie Baillie if I could' declarations. She's no 1 on the Labour West Scotland list so she'll be re-elected as an MSP whatever happens.
One would have hoped PBers would have slightly more of a clue about Scotland's voting system than Galloway.
Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 (given the 2016 election was before Brexit) and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendum
Not so. If the pro-Independence parties maintain a majority then the material change of Brexit is more than enough justification for a referendum. They will have both the electoral support and the material reason to call one. Whether they will win is another matter but that is for the Scottish people to decide. They deserve to be given that chance.
No. There was already an SNP and Green majority at Holyrood even before the Brexit vote. If the SNP cannot even match the majority they got in 2011 before the 2014 referendum after Brexit there is absolutely zero grounds for any indyref2 and this Tory government will correctly and easily refuse a legal indyref2 and the 2014 'once in a generation' referendum will be respected.
I think you may be dancing on pinheads. If the Scottish people vote in the SNP, absolutely ghastly though the SNP are (the genuine nasty party), they know what they are voting for. Those that don't want the risk of the upheaval of independence know it is best not to vote for the SNP. I think it will be politically impossible and counterproductive for Bozo to think he can play the part of Cnut, though he does look the part!
If the SNP fail to get a majority but only scrape back again with the Greens the Scots will not even be voting majority SNP anyway
No but they will still have voted for a party supporting Independence. Were I in Scotland I would not be able to bring myself to vote for the SNP as it is currently configured. But I would vote for the Greens as an alternative that still expressed my support for Independence.
Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendum
I think you have misunderstood./ Brexit IS the material change in circumstances. Sufficient in itself.
If the SNP fail to win a majority after Brexit it clearly for most Scots is not
Compared to England where the Tories are now massively dominant now thanks to Brexit? The divergence between the two nations is already much worse than it was.
And you are moving the goalposts yet again. You need to include the Scottish Greens, too.
No we don't, the Greens are not an explicitly nationalist party like the SNP, it was only the SNP majority in 2011 which led Cameron and the UK government to even consider allowing the 2014 independence referendum. If no SNP majority at all the UK government will of course refuse to even consider allowing a legal indyref2
The Greens are in support of independence. To argue that they should be ignored is a remarkable piece of intellectual tergiversation. And not one to be encouraged in rational debate, above all on PB where people's bets depend on rational analysis free of moving goalposts.
Remember: Mrs T herself accepted that a simple majority of SNP MPs in Scottish MPs was sufficient to trigger independence tout court. (not in quite those words, but what other way was there then to obtain a majority statement of intent?)
She did not actually say that, all she said in the Downing Street Years was ' “The Tory Party is not, of course, an English party, but a Unionist one. If it sometimes seems English to some Scots, that is because the Union is inevitably dominated by England by reason of its greater population. The Scots, being an historic nation with a proud past, will inevitably resent some expressions of this fact from time to time.
“As a nation, they have an undoubted right to national self-determination; thus far they have exercised that right by joining and remaining in the Union. Should they determine on independence, no English party or politician would stand in their way, however much we might regret their departure.”' Never that a majority of SNP MPs alone would be enough.
However Thatcher is no longer UK PM or even alive, Boris is
Yes, but she is more of a PM when long since dead than Boris Johnson is while still very much alive.
Oh don't be so stupidly partisan. For one, I wasn't comparing Bozo with Starmer (he is leader of Labour btw, and is as yet largely untested!), I was comparing Johnson with Margaret Thatcher, who was, love her or loathe her, a colossus. The only thing about Boris er er er Johnson is his stomach, and the colossal consequences of his incompetence ("oh but the vaccines the vaccines" you will no doubt nauseously and obsequiously cry in your inability to point to anything else he has got lucky with while in office).
Sounds like you're the only one crying as Boris' ratings continue to climb on the back of his world-beating vaccine rollout.
It's almost as if he knows much more about how to do the job than you do...
He knows how to gull the gullible if you consider that is part of his job? Speaking of the supremely gullible, I have decided that for Lent I will start being nice to them. How are you today? Having a good one?
Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendum
I think you have misunderstood./ Brexit IS the material change in circumstances. Sufficient in itself.
If the SNP fail to win a majority after Brexit it clearly for most Scots is not
Compared to England where the Tories are now massively dominant now thanks to Brexit? The divergence between the two nations is already much worse than it was.
And you are moving the goalposts yet again. You need to include the Scottish Greens, too.
No we don't, the Greens are not an explicitly nationalist party like the SNP, it was only the SNP majority in 2011 which led Cameron and the UK government to even consider allowing the 2014 independence referendum. If no SNP majority at all the UK government will of course refuse to even consider allowing a legal indyref2
The Greens are in support of independence. To argue that they should be ignored is a remarkable piece of intellectual tergiversation. And not one to be encouraged in rational debate, above all on PB where people's bets depend on rational analysis free of moving goalposts.
Remember: Mrs T herself accepted that a simple majority of SNP MPs in Scottish MPs was sufficient to trigger independence tout court. (not in quite those words, but what other way was there then to obtain a majority statement of intent?)
She did not actually say that, all she said in the Downing Street Years was ' “The Tory Party is not, of course, an English party, but a Unionist one. If it sometimes seems English to some Scots, that is because the Union is inevitably dominated by England by reason of its greater population. The Scots, being an historic nation with a proud past, will inevitably resent some expressions of this fact from time to time.
“As a nation, they have an undoubted right to national self-determination; thus far they have exercised that right by joining and remaining in the Union. Should they determine on independence, no English party or politician would stand in their way, however much we might regret their departure.”' Never that a majority of SNP MPs alone would be enough.
However Thatcher is no longer UK PM or even alive, Boris is
Yes, but she is more of a PM when long since dead than Boris Johnson is while still very much alive.
That poll has the nasty, grinding-rock feeling of the Great British electorate starting to decide that SKS is a bit of a dud. That tends to only go one way, once it sets in.
I don't carry a torch for Starmer ( I have been a Tory for most of my adult life), but I also heard people write Cameron off in a similar way, and also John Major. The latter went on to win a GE and the former won twice. Incidentally, I recall that John Major was once "more popular than Churchill" according to an opinion poll and headline for the Telegraph in 1991 (1st Gulf War). He wasnt so popular by 1997! Opinion polls in the middle of a pandemics or crisis mean jack shit. Starmer will also be helped by the slow realisation, even by the politically slow, that Boris Johnson is an incompetent buffoon ("oh the vaccine rollout, the vaccine rollout" the politically gullible will still be saying ad nauseam!)
Boris Johnson is the most written off and underestimated politician in my lifetime, though, however competent he may be at governing. I first heard someone write him off in 2008, during his campaign to be Mayor of London. I wonder if people will still be making that mistake if he's PM a decade from now?
Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendum
I think you have misunderstood./ Brexit IS the material change in circumstances. Sufficient in itself.
If the SNP fail to win a majority after Brexit it clearly for most Scots is not
Compared to England where the Tories are now massively dominant now thanks to Brexit? The divergence between the two nations is already much worse than it was.
And you are moving the goalposts yet again. You need to include the Scottish Greens, too.
No we don't, the Greens are not an explicitly nationalist party like the SNP, it was only the SNP majority in 2011 which led Cameron and the UK government to even consider allowing the 2014 independence referendum. If no SNP majority at all the UK government will of course refuse to even consider allowing a legal indyref2
The Greens are in support of independence. To argue that they should be ignored is a remarkable piece of intellectual tergiversation. And not one to be encouraged in rational debate, above all on PB where people's bets depend on rational analysis free of moving goalposts.
Remember: Mrs T herself accepted that a simple majority of SNP MPs in Scottish MPs was sufficient to trigger independence tout court. (not in quite those words, but what other way was there then to obtain a majority statement of intent?)
She did not actually say that, all she said in the Downing Street Years was ' “The Tory Party is not, of course, an English party, but a Unionist one. If it sometimes seems English to some Scots, that is because the Union is inevitably dominated by England by reason of its greater population. The Scots, being an historic nation with a proud past, will inevitably resent some expressions of this fact from time to time.
“As a nation, they have an undoubted right to national self-determination; thus far they have exercised that right by joining and remaining in the Union. Should they determine on independence, no English party or politician would stand in their way, however much we might regret their departure.”' Never that a majority of SNP MPs alone would be enough.
However Thatcher is no longer UK PM or even alive, Boris is
Yes, but she is more of a PM when long since dead than Boris Johnson is while still very much alive.
That poll has the nasty, grinding-rock feeling of the Great British electorate starting to decide that SKS is a bit of a dud. That tends to only go one way, once it sets in.
I don't carry a torch for Starmer ( I have been a Tory for most of my adult life), but I also heard people write Cameron off in a similar way, and also John Major. The latter went on to win a GE and the former won twice. Incidentally, I recall that John Major was once "more popular than Churchill" according to an opinion poll and headline for the Telegraph in 1991 (1st Gulf War). He wasnt so popular by 1997! Opinion polls in the middle of a pandemics or crisis mean jack shit. Starmer will also be helped by the slow realisation, even by the politically slow, that Boris Johnson is an incompetent buffoon ("oh the vaccine rollout, the vaccine rollout" the politically gullible will still be saying ad nauseam!)
Boris Johnson is the most written off and underestimated politician in my lifetime, though, however competent he may be at governing. I first heard someone write him off in 2008, during his campaign to be Mayor of London. I wonder if people will still be making that mistake if he's PM a decade from now?
His best case scenario, perhaps, is to be the Baldwin of the age. Baldwin, after all, won three elections with majorities that made Blair’s seem like Major’s, and never lost the popular vote as leader of the party.
Trouble is, that isn’t a great scenario from rather too many other points of view.
I see that the Scottish Greens are standing in only two of the nine constituencies in the Lothian Region.
Situation would be a lot harder for the SNP if the Greens saw this as an opportunity to win support as a party of independence not embroiled in scandal.
Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendum
I think you have misunderstood./ Brexit IS the material change in circumstances. Sufficient in itself.
If the SNP fail to win a majority after Brexit it clearly for most Scots is not
Compared to England where the Tories are now massively dominant now thanks to Brexit? The divergence between the two nations is already much worse than it was.
And you are moving the goalposts yet again. You need to include the Scottish Greens, too.
No we don't, the Greens are not an explicitly nationalist party like the SNP, it was only the SNP majority in 2011 which led Cameron and the UK government to even consider allowing the 2014 independence referendum. If no SNP majority at all the UK government will of course refuse to even consider allowing a legal indyref2
The Greens are in support of independence. To argue that they should be ignored is a remarkable piece of intellectual tergiversation. And not one to be encouraged in rational debate, above all on PB where people's bets depend on rational analysis free of moving goalposts.
Remember: Mrs T herself accepted that a simple majority of SNP MPs in Scottish MPs was sufficient to trigger independence tout court. (not in quite those words, but what other way was there then to obtain a majority statement of intent?)
She did not actually say that, all she said in the Downing Street Years was ' “The Tory Party is not, of course, an English party, but a Unionist one. If it sometimes seems English to some Scots, that is because the Union is inevitably dominated by England by reason of its greater population. The Scots, being an historic nation with a proud past, will inevitably resent some expressions of this fact from time to time.
“As a nation, they have an undoubted right to national self-determination; thus far they have exercised that right by joining and remaining in the Union. Should they determine on independence, no English party or politician would stand in their way, however much we might regret their departure.”' Never that a majority of SNP MPs alone would be enough.
However Thatcher is no longer UK PM or even alive, Boris is
Yes, but she is more of a PM when long since dead than Boris Johnson is while still very much alive.
That poll has the nasty, grinding-rock feeling of the Great British electorate starting to decide that SKS is a bit of a dud. That tends to only go one way, once it sets in.
I don't carry a torch for Starmer ( I have been a Tory for most of my adult life), but I also heard people write Cameron off in a similar way, and also John Major. The latter went on to win a GE and the former won twice. Incidentally, I recall that John Major was once "more popular than Churchill" according to an opinion poll and headline for the Telegraph in 1991 (1st Gulf War). He wasnt so popular by 1997! Opinion polls in the middle of a pandemics or crisis mean jack shit. Starmer will also be helped by the slow realisation, even by the politically slow, that Boris Johnson is an incompetent buffoon ("oh the vaccine rollout, the vaccine rollout" the politically gullible will still be saying ad nauseam!)
Boris Johnson is the most written off and underestimated politician in my lifetime, though, however competent he may be at governing. I first heard someone write him off in 2008, during his campaign to be Mayor of London. I wonder if people will still be making that mistake if he's PM a decade from now?
I suppose one of the weaknesses of our quasi-democratic system is that, certainly in the case of Boris Johnson, you do not need to be competent to be popular. Boris Johnson has a certain cunning no doubt, and dishonesty can sometimes get some people a long way, particularly with the very gullible. He has been lucky, in the sense that he was the choice over Jeremy Corbyn. I suspect one day his luck will run out and his fall from grace may well be spectacular.
Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendum
I think you have misunderstood./ Brexit IS the material change in circumstances. Sufficient in itself.
If the SNP fail to win a majority after Brexit it clearly for most Scots is not
Compared to England where the Tories are now massively dominant now thanks to Brexit? The divergence between the two nations is already much worse than it was.
And you are moving the goalposts yet again. You need to include the Scottish Greens, too.
No we don't, the Greens are not an explicitly nationalist party like the SNP, it was only the SNP majority in 2011 which led Cameron and the UK government to even consider allowing the 2014 independence referendum. If no SNP majority at all the UK government will of course refuse to even consider allowing a legal indyref2
The Greens are in support of independence. To argue that they should be ignored is a remarkable piece of intellectual tergiversation. And not one to be encouraged in rational debate, above all on PB where people's bets depend on rational analysis free of moving goalposts.
Remember: Mrs T herself accepted that a simple majority of SNP MPs in Scottish MPs was sufficient to trigger independence tout court. (not in quite those words, but what other way was there then to obtain a majority statement of intent?)
She did not actually say that, all she said in the Downing Street Years was ' “The Tory Party is not, of course, an English party, but a Unionist one. If it sometimes seems English to some Scots, that is because the Union is inevitably dominated by England by reason of its greater population. The Scots, being an historic nation with a proud past, will inevitably resent some expressions of this fact from time to time.
“As a nation, they have an undoubted right to national self-determination; thus far they have exercised that right by joining and remaining in the Union. Should they determine on independence, no English party or politician would stand in their way, however much we might regret their departure.”' Never that a majority of SNP MPs alone would be enough.
However Thatcher is no longer UK PM or even alive, Boris is
Yes, but she is more of a PM when long since dead than Boris Johnson is while still very much alive.
Oh don't be so stupidly partisan. For one, I wasn't comparing Bozo with Starmer (he is leader of Labour btw, and is as yet largely untested!), I was comparing Johnson with Margaret Thatcher, who was, love her or loathe her, a colossus. The only thing about Boris er er er Johnson is his stomach, and the colossal consequences of his incompetence ("oh but the vaccines the vaccines" you will no doubt nauseously and obsequiously cry in your inability to point to anything else he has got lucky with while in office).
Sounds like you're the only one crying as Boris' ratings continue to climb on the back of his world-beating vaccine rollout.
It's almost as if he knows much more about how to do the job than you do...
He knows how to gull the gullible if you consider that is part of his job? Speaking of the supremely gullible, I have decided that for Lent I will start being nice to them. How are you today? Having a good one?
I do hope that you don't teach students at the Nigel Foremain School of Political Leadership that winning over voters is an irrelevant skill for a politician. That way lies humiliating defeat of the sort suffered at Boris' hands by Ken Livingstone, the Remain campaign, the Tory Wets, Change UK, the Lib Dems, the Labour Party...
Van-Tam: overall effect of both vaccines in over 70s - single dose preventing 60% of illnesses and 80% of hospitalisations. Single dose of Pfizer vaccine cuts deaths by 85% in this age group (insufficient data available for AZ, which came into service later.)
Has this been peer reviewed by Professor Peston FRS DipSHit?
Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendum
I think you have misunderstood./ Brexit IS the material change in circumstances. Sufficient in itself.
If the SNP fail to win a majority after Brexit it clearly for most Scots is not
Compared to England where the Tories are now massively dominant now thanks to Brexit? The divergence between the two nations is already much worse than it was.
And you are moving the goalposts yet again. You need to include the Scottish Greens, too.
No we don't, the Greens are not an explicitly nationalist party like the SNP, it was only the SNP majority in 2011 which led Cameron and the UK government to even consider allowing the 2014 independence referendum. If no SNP majority at all the UK government will of course refuse to even consider allowing a legal indyref2
The Greens are in support of independence. To argue that they should be ignored is a remarkable piece of intellectual tergiversation. And not one to be encouraged in rational debate, above all on PB where people's bets depend on rational analysis free of moving goalposts.
Remember: Mrs T herself accepted that a simple majority of SNP MPs in Scottish MPs was sufficient to trigger independence tout court. (not in quite those words, but what other way was there then to obtain a majority statement of intent?)
She did not actually say that, all she said in the Downing Street Years was ' “The Tory Party is not, of course, an English party, but a Unionist one. If it sometimes seems English to some Scots, that is because the Union is inevitably dominated by England by reason of its greater population. The Scots, being an historic nation with a proud past, will inevitably resent some expressions of this fact from time to time.
“As a nation, they have an undoubted right to national self-determination; thus far they have exercised that right by joining and remaining in the Union. Should they determine on independence, no English party or politician would stand in their way, however much we might regret their departure.”' Never that a majority of SNP MPs alone would be enough.
However Thatcher is no longer UK PM or even alive, Boris is
Yes, but she is more of a PM when long since dead than Boris Johnson is while still very much alive.
That poll has the nasty, grinding-rock feeling of the Great British electorate starting to decide that SKS is a bit of a dud. That tends to only go one way, once it sets in.
I don't carry a torch for Starmer ( I have been a Tory for most of my adult life), but I also heard people write Cameron off in a similar way, and also John Major. The latter went on to win a GE and the former won twice. Incidentally, I recall that John Major was once "more popular than Churchill" according to an opinion poll and headline for the Telegraph in 1991 (1st Gulf War). He wasnt so popular by 1997! Opinion polls in the middle of a pandemics or crisis mean jack shit. Starmer will also be helped by the slow realisation, even by the politically slow, that Boris Johnson is an incompetent buffoon ("oh the vaccine rollout, the vaccine rollout" the politically gullible will still be saying ad nauseam!)
Starmer strikes me as a UK Hollande or Biden, he will not win because he is a greatly popular, charismatic leader but because he is a relatively offensive alternative to an unpopular populist leader, if that is the case in 2024
That is how I view him. He will be seen as a safe pair of hands that is a contrast to Billy Bunter. That is why he is a threat and the Tories will be very stupid if they underestimate him IMO.
Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendum
I think you have misunderstood./ Brexit IS the material change in circumstances. Sufficient in itself.
If the SNP fail to win a majority after Brexit it clearly for most Scots is not
Compared to England where the Tories are now massively dominant now thanks to Brexit? The divergence between the two nations is already much worse than it was.
And you are moving the goalposts yet again. You need to include the Scottish Greens, too.
No we don't, the Greens are not an explicitly nationalist party like the SNP, it was only the SNP majority in 2011 which led Cameron and the UK government to even consider allowing the 2014 independence referendum. If no SNP majority at all the UK government will of course refuse to even consider allowing a legal indyref2
The Greens are in support of independence. To argue that they should be ignored is a remarkable piece of intellectual tergiversation. And not one to be encouraged in rational debate, above all on PB where people's bets depend on rational analysis free of moving goalposts.
Remember: Mrs T herself accepted that a simple majority of SNP MPs in Scottish MPs was sufficient to trigger independence tout court. (not in quite those words, but what other way was there then to obtain a majority statement of intent?)
She did not actually say that, all she said in the Downing Street Years was ' “The Tory Party is not, of course, an English party, but a Unionist one. If it sometimes seems English to some Scots, that is because the Union is inevitably dominated by England by reason of its greater population. The Scots, being an historic nation with a proud past, will inevitably resent some expressions of this fact from time to time.
“As a nation, they have an undoubted right to national self-determination; thus far they have exercised that right by joining and remaining in the Union. Should they determine on independence, no English party or politician would stand in their way, however much we might regret their departure.”' Never that a majority of SNP MPs alone would be enough.
However Thatcher is no longer UK PM or even alive, Boris is
Yes, but she is more of a PM when long since dead than Boris Johnson is while still very much alive.
Oh don't be so stupidly partisan. For one, I wasn't comparing Bozo with Starmer (he is leader of Labour btw, and is as yet largely untested!), I was comparing Johnson with Margaret Thatcher, who was, love her or loathe her, a colossus. The only thing about Boris er er er Johnson is his stomach, and the colossal consequences of his incompetence ("oh but the vaccines the vaccines" you will no doubt nauseously and obsequiously cry in your inability to point to anything else he has got lucky with while in office).
Sounds like you're the only one crying as Boris' ratings continue to climb on the back of his world-beating vaccine rollout.
It's almost as if he knows much more about how to do the job than you do...
He knows how to gull the gullible if you consider that is part of his job? Speaking of the supremely gullible, I have decided that for Lent I will start being nice to them. How are you today? Having a good one?
I do hope that you don't teach students at the Nigel Foremain School of Political Leadership that winning over voters is an irrelevant skill for a politician. That way lies humiliating defeat of the sort suffered at Boris' hands by Ken Livingstone, the Remain campaign, the Tory Wets, Change UK, the Lib Dems, the Labour Party...
Not to mention that little Japanese boy who tried to get in the way of Boris when he was holding a rugby ball.
Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendum
I think you have misunderstood./ Brexit IS the material change in circumstances. Sufficient in itself.
If the SNP fail to win a majority after Brexit it clearly for most Scots is not
Compared to England where the Tories are now massively dominant now thanks to Brexit? The divergence between the two nations is already much worse than it was.
And you are moving the goalposts yet again. You need to include the Scottish Greens, too.
No we don't, the Greens are not an explicitly nationalist party like the SNP, it was only the SNP majority in 2011 which led Cameron and the UK government to even consider allowing the 2014 independence referendum. If no SNP majority at all the UK government will of course refuse to even consider allowing a legal indyref2
The Greens are in support of independence. To argue that they should be ignored is a remarkable piece of intellectual tergiversation. And not one to be encouraged in rational debate, above all on PB where people's bets depend on rational analysis free of moving goalposts.
Remember: Mrs T herself accepted that a simple majority of SNP MPs in Scottish MPs was sufficient to trigger independence tout court. (not in quite those words, but what other way was there then to obtain a majority statement of intent?)
She did not actually say that, all she said in the Downing Street Years was ' “The Tory Party is not, of course, an English party, but a Unionist one. If it sometimes seems English to some Scots, that is because the Union is inevitably dominated by England by reason of its greater population. The Scots, being an historic nation with a proud past, will inevitably resent some expressions of this fact from time to time.
“As a nation, they have an undoubted right to national self-determination; thus far they have exercised that right by joining and remaining in the Union. Should they determine on independence, no English party or politician would stand in their way, however much we might regret their departure.”' Never that a majority of SNP MPs alone would be enough.
However Thatcher is no longer UK PM or even alive, Boris is
Yes, but she is more of a PM when long since dead than Boris Johnson is while still very much alive.
That poll has the nasty, grinding-rock feeling of the Great British electorate starting to decide that SKS is a bit of a dud. That tends to only go one way, once it sets in.
I don't carry a torch for Starmer ( I have been a Tory for most of my adult life), but I also heard people write Cameron off in a similar way, and also John Major. The latter went on to win a GE and the former won twice. Incidentally, I recall that John Major was once "more popular than Churchill" according to an opinion poll and headline for the Telegraph in 1991 (1st Gulf War). He wasnt so popular by 1997! Opinion polls in the middle of a pandemics or crisis mean jack shit. Starmer will also be helped by the slow realisation, even by the politically slow, that Boris Johnson is an incompetent buffoon ("oh the vaccine rollout, the vaccine rollout" the politically gullible will still be saying ad nauseam!)
Boris Johnson is the most written off and underestimated politician in my lifetime, though, however competent he may be at governing. I first heard someone write him off in 2008, during his campaign to be Mayor of London. I wonder if people will still be making that mistake if he's PM a decade from now?
I suppose one of the weaknesses of our quasi-democratic system is that, certainly in the case of Boris Johnson, you do not need to be competent to be popular. Boris Johnson has a certain cunning no doubt, and dishonesty can sometimes get some people a long way, particularly with the very gullible. He has been lucky, in the sense that he was the choice over Jeremy Corbyn. I suspect one day his luck will run out and his fall from grace may well be spectacular.
That's obviously what you want to happen, and it may well. I wouldn't bet on it though.
Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendum
I think you have misunderstood./ Brexit IS the material change in circumstances. Sufficient in itself.
If the SNP fail to win a majority after Brexit it clearly for most Scots is not
Compared to England where the Tories are now massively dominant now thanks to Brexit? The divergence between the two nations is already much worse than it was.
And you are moving the goalposts yet again. You need to include the Scottish Greens, too.
No we don't, the Greens are not an explicitly nationalist party like the SNP, it was only the SNP majority in 2011 which led Cameron and the UK government to even consider allowing the 2014 independence referendum. If no SNP majority at all the UK government will of course refuse to even consider allowing a legal indyref2
The Greens are in support of independence. To argue that they should be ignored is a remarkable piece of intellectual tergiversation. And not one to be encouraged in rational debate, above all on PB where people's bets depend on rational analysis free of moving goalposts.
Remember: Mrs T herself accepted that a simple majority of SNP MPs in Scottish MPs was sufficient to trigger independence tout court. (not in quite those words, but what other way was there then to obtain a majority statement of intent?)
She did not actually say that, all she said in the Downing Street Years was ' “The Tory Party is not, of course, an English party, but a Unionist one. If it sometimes seems English to some Scots, that is because the Union is inevitably dominated by England by reason of its greater population. The Scots, being an historic nation with a proud past, will inevitably resent some expressions of this fact from time to time.
“As a nation, they have an undoubted right to national self-determination; thus far they have exercised that right by joining and remaining in the Union. Should they determine on independence, no English party or politician would stand in their way, however much we might regret their departure.”' Never that a majority of SNP MPs alone would be enough.
However Thatcher is no longer UK PM or even alive, Boris is
Yes, but she is more of a PM when long since dead than Boris Johnson is while still very much alive.
Oh don't be so stupidly partisan. For one, I wasn't comparing Bozo with Starmer (he is leader of Labour btw, and is as yet largely untested!), I was comparing Johnson with Margaret Thatcher, who was, love her or loathe her, a colossus. The only thing about Boris er er er Johnson is his stomach, and the colossal consequences of his incompetence ("oh but the vaccines the vaccines" you will no doubt nauseously and obsequiously cry in your inability to point to anything else he has got lucky with while in office).
Sounds like you're the only one crying as Boris' ratings continue to climb on the back of his world-beating vaccine rollout.
It's almost as if he knows much more about how to do the job than you do...
He knows how to gull the gullible if you consider that is part of his job? Speaking of the supremely gullible, I have decided that for Lent I will start being nice to them. How are you today? Having a good one?
I do hope that you don't teach students at the Nigel Foremain School of Political Leadership that winning over voters is an irrelevant skill for a politician. That way lies humiliating defeat of the sort suffered at Boris' hands by Ken Livingstone, the Remain campaign, the Tory Wets, Change UK, the Lib Dems, the Labour Party...
Oh dear, you have got it bad. You really are a believer aren't you? I find people who are so brainwashed quite fascinating and sometimes frightening. Some might say quaint perhaps, but pretty sad. Boris Johnson definitely can fool some of the fools all of the time.
If these stats are correct - and even though they are from JVT I very much hope they are - does it make a case for everyone under 60 not in a vulnerable group to have just one jab?
After all, we generally have milder forms anyway and the key is to eliminate deaths and serious illnesses. Plus, it would appear, those who are mildly unwell/asymptomatic are not usually big spreaders of the disease.
That could speed things up tremendously and free up capacity across the world.
What do those people who know what they’re talking about think?
Can you explain how that has "fucked the holiday industry"?
I could be wrong here, but I suspect that - even if Brexit had never happened - this might not have been a banner year for the British tourism industry.
Many thanks to PBers for the TV recommendations. I shall bookmark the thread. TA
On topic, whatever your views on the indyref question, whether Boris should allow it or not (I think he's absolutely right, and justified, in refusing, but I can see the opposing argument), the fact is, Realpolitik tells us he just won't allow it, whatever
He wants to be known as the PM who delivered Brexit and steered us through Covid (with a wobbly start and a sprinting finish). Plus then some levelling up (if he can). So far, he's doing OK, as the polls show.
Allowing a Sindyref into all that, and potentially losing Scotland from the Union, means THAT would be his epitaph, instead.
They've all learned from Brexit. Referendums ruin prime ministerial careers. Cameron will only be remembered for his Brexit defeat. Quite a tragic fate
Sindyref 2 is not going to happen until 2024 earliest
Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendum
I think you have misunderstood./ Brexit IS the material change in circumstances. Sufficient in itself.
If the SNP fail to win a majority after Brexit it clearly for most Scots is not
Compared to England where the Tories are now massively dominant now thanks to Brexit? The divergence between the two nations is already much worse than it was.
And you are moving the goalposts yet again. You need to include the Scottish Greens, too.
No we don't, the Greens are not an explicitly nationalist party like the SNP, it was only the SNP majority in 2011 which led Cameron and the UK government to even consider allowing the 2014 independence referendum. If no SNP majority at all the UK government will of course refuse to even consider allowing a legal indyref2
The Greens are in support of independence. To argue that they should be ignored is a remarkable piece of intellectual tergiversation. And not one to be encouraged in rational debate, above all on PB where people's bets depend on rational analysis free of moving goalposts.
Remember: Mrs T herself accepted that a simple majority of SNP MPs in Scottish MPs was sufficient to trigger independence tout court. (not in quite those words, but what other way was there then to obtain a majority statement of intent?)
She did not actually say that, all she said in the Downing Street Years was ' “The Tory Party is not, of course, an English party, but a Unionist one. If it sometimes seems English to some Scots, that is because the Union is inevitably dominated by England by reason of its greater population. The Scots, being an historic nation with a proud past, will inevitably resent some expressions of this fact from time to time.
“As a nation, they have an undoubted right to national self-determination; thus far they have exercised that right by joining and remaining in the Union. Should they determine on independence, no English party or politician would stand in their way, however much we might regret their departure.”' Never that a majority of SNP MPs alone would be enough.
However Thatcher is no longer UK PM or even alive, Boris is
Yes, but she is more of a PM when long since dead than Boris Johnson is while still very much alive.
Oh don't be so stupidly partisan. For one, I wasn't comparing Bozo with Starmer (he is leader of Labour btw, and is as yet largely untested!), I was comparing Johnson with Margaret Thatcher, who was, love her or loathe her, a colossus. The only thing about Boris er er er Johnson is his stomach, and the colossal consequences of his incompetence ("oh but the vaccines the vaccines" you will no doubt nauseously and obsequiously cry in your inability to point to anything else he has got lucky with while in office).
Sounds like you're the only one crying as Boris' ratings continue to climb on the back of his world-beating vaccine rollout.
It's almost as if he knows much more about how to do the job than you do...
He knows how to gull the gullible if you consider that is part of his job? Speaking of the supremely gullible, I have decided that for Lent I will start being nice to them. How are you today? Having a good one?
I do hope that you don't teach students at the Nigel Foremain School of Political Leadership that winning over voters is an irrelevant skill for a politician. That way lies humiliating defeat of the sort suffered at Boris' hands by Ken Livingstone, the Remain campaign, the Tory Wets, Change UK, the Lib Dems, the Labour Party...
Oh dear, you have got it bad. You really are a believer aren't you? I find people who are so brainwashed quite fascinating and sometimes frightening. Some might say quaint perhaps, but pretty sad. Boris Johnson definitely can fool some of the fools all of the time.
“You can fool some of the people all the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on.”
Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendum
I think you have misunderstood./ Brexit IS the material change in circumstances. Sufficient in itself.
If the SNP fail to win a majority after Brexit it clearly for most Scots is not
Compared to England where the Tories are now massively dominant now thanks to Brexit? The divergence between the two nations is already much worse than it was.
And you are moving the goalposts yet again. You need to include the Scottish Greens, too.
No we don't, the Greens are not an explicitly nationalist party like the SNP, it was only the SNP majority in 2011 which led Cameron and the UK government to even consider allowing the 2014 independence referendum. If no SNP majority at all the UK government will of course refuse to even consider allowing a legal indyref2
The Greens are in support of independence. To argue that they should be ignored is a remarkable piece of intellectual tergiversation. And not one to be encouraged in rational debate, above all on PB where people's bets depend on rational analysis free of moving goalposts.
Remember: Mrs T herself accepted that a simple majority of SNP MPs in Scottish MPs was sufficient to trigger independence tout court. (not in quite those words, but what other way was there then to obtain a majority statement of intent?)
She did not actually say that, all she said in the Downing Street Years was ' “The Tory Party is not, of course, an English party, but a Unionist one. If it sometimes seems English to some Scots, that is because the Union is inevitably dominated by England by reason of its greater population. The Scots, being an historic nation with a proud past, will inevitably resent some expressions of this fact from time to time.
“As a nation, they have an undoubted right to national self-determination; thus far they have exercised that right by joining and remaining in the Union. Should they determine on independence, no English party or politician would stand in their way, however much we might regret their departure.”' Never that a majority of SNP MPs alone would be enough.
However Thatcher is no longer UK PM or even alive, Boris is
Yes, but she is more of a PM when long since dead than Boris Johnson is while still very much alive.
That poll has the nasty, grinding-rock feeling of the Great British electorate starting to decide that SKS is a bit of a dud. That tends to only go one way, once it sets in.
I don't carry a torch for Starmer ( I have been a Tory for most of my adult life), but I also heard people write Cameron off in a similar way, and also John Major. The latter went on to win a GE and the former won twice. Incidentally, I recall that John Major was once "more popular than Churchill" according to an opinion poll and headline for the Telegraph in 1991 (1st Gulf War). He wasnt so popular by 1997! Opinion polls in the middle of a pandemics or crisis mean jack shit. Starmer will also be helped by the slow realisation, even by the politically slow, that Boris Johnson is an incompetent buffoon ("oh the vaccine rollout, the vaccine rollout" the politically gullible will still be saying ad nauseam!)
Starmer strikes me as a UK Hollande or Biden, he will not win because he is a greatly popular, charismatic leader but because he is a relatively offensive alternative to an unpopular populist leader, if that is the case in 2024
‘tis the general way of things. Trump only won because he wasn’t Clinton. Macron because he wasn’t Le Pen. Johnson because he wasn’t Corbyn. People do tend to vote negatively.
Looks like the special chips the government put in the vaccine were worth every penny...
It'll look a lot more suspicious once it gets into the 20s, 30s and 40s and they start indicating Tory support - so they had better switch to the placebos soon.
I see that the Scottish Greens are standing in only two of the nine constituencies in the Lothian Region.
Situation would be a lot harder for the SNP if the Greens saw this as an opportunity to win support as a party of independence not embroiled in scandal.
You have to remember that most Green support is parasitical and it does not do to bite the hand that feeds you.
Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendum
I think you have misunderstood./ Brexit IS the material change in circumstances. Sufficient in itself.
If the SNP fail to win a majority after Brexit it clearly for most Scots is not
Compared to England where the Tories are now massively dominant now thanks to Brexit? The divergence between the two nations is already much worse than it was.
And you are moving the goalposts yet again. You need to include the Scottish Greens, too.
No we don't, the Greens are not an explicitly nationalist party like the SNP, it was only the SNP majority in 2011 which led Cameron and the UK government to even consider allowing the 2014 independence referendum. If no SNP majority at all the UK government will of course refuse to even consider allowing a legal indyref2
The Greens are in support of independence. To argue that they should be ignored is a remarkable piece of intellectual tergiversation. And not one to be encouraged in rational debate, above all on PB where people's bets depend on rational analysis free of moving goalposts.
Remember: Mrs T herself accepted that a simple majority of SNP MPs in Scottish MPs was sufficient to trigger independence tout court. (not in quite those words, but what other way was there then to obtain a majority statement of intent?)
She did not actually say that, all she said in the Downing Street Years was ' “The Tory Party is not, of course, an English party, but a Unionist one. If it sometimes seems English to some Scots, that is because the Union is inevitably dominated by England by reason of its greater population. The Scots, being an historic nation with a proud past, will inevitably resent some expressions of this fact from time to time.
“As a nation, they have an undoubted right to national self-determination; thus far they have exercised that right by joining and remaining in the Union. Should they determine on independence, no English party or politician would stand in their way, however much we might regret their departure.”' Never that a majority of SNP MPs alone would be enough.
However Thatcher is no longer UK PM or even alive, Boris is
Yes, but she is more of a PM when long since dead than Boris Johnson is while still very much alive.
Oh don't be so stupidly partisan. For one, I wasn't comparing Bozo with Starmer (he is leader of Labour btw, and is as yet largely untested!), I was comparing Johnson with Margaret Thatcher, who was, love her or loathe her, a colossus. The only thing about Boris er er er Johnson is his stomach, and the colossal consequences of his incompetence ("oh but the vaccines the vaccines" you will no doubt nauseously and obsequiously cry in your inability to point to anything else he has got lucky with while in office).
Sounds like you're the only one crying as Boris' ratings continue to climb on the back of his world-beating vaccine rollout.
It's almost as if he knows much more about how to do the job than you do...
He knows how to gull the gullible if you consider that is part of his job? Speaking of the supremely gullible, I have decided that for Lent I will start being nice to them. How are you today? Having a good one?
I do hope that you don't teach students at the Nigel Foremain School of Political Leadership that winning over voters is an irrelevant skill for a politician. That way lies humiliating defeat of the sort suffered at Boris' hands by Ken Livingstone, the Remain campaign, the Tory Wets, Change UK, the Lib Dems, the Labour Party...
Oh dear, you have got it bad. You really are a believer aren't you? I find people who are so brainwashed quite fascinating and sometimes frightening. Some might say quaint perhaps, but pretty sad. Boris Johnson definitely can fool some of the fools all of the time.
Well, you have repeatedly tried to sell yourself as a expert on political leadership despite, er, knowing nothing about it, so you must have considerable faith in your own ability to fool and brainwash others.
Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendum
I think you have misunderstood./ Brexit IS the material change in circumstances. Sufficient in itself.
If the SNP fail to win a majority after Brexit it clearly for most Scots is not
Compared to England where the Tories are now massively dominant now thanks to Brexit? The divergence between the two nations is already much worse than it was.
And you are moving the goalposts yet again. You need to include the Scottish Greens, too.
No we don't, the Greens are not an explicitly nationalist party like the SNP, it was only the SNP majority in 2011 which led Cameron and the UK government to even consider allowing the 2014 independence referendum. If no SNP majority at all the UK government will of course refuse to even consider allowing a legal indyref2
The Greens are in support of independence. To argue that they should be ignored is a remarkable piece of intellectual tergiversation. And not one to be encouraged in rational debate, above all on PB where people's bets depend on rational analysis free of moving goalposts.
Remember: Mrs T herself accepted that a simple majority of SNP MPs in Scottish MPs was sufficient to trigger independence tout court. (not in quite those words, but what other way was there then to obtain a majority statement of intent?)
She did not actually say that, all she said in the Downing Street Years was ' “The Tory Party is not, of course, an English party, but a Unionist one. If it sometimes seems English to some Scots, that is because the Union is inevitably dominated by England by reason of its greater population. The Scots, being an historic nation with a proud past, will inevitably resent some expressions of this fact from time to time.
“As a nation, they have an undoubted right to national self-determination; thus far they have exercised that right by joining and remaining in the Union. Should they determine on independence, no English party or politician would stand in their way, however much we might regret their departure.”' Never that a majority of SNP MPs alone would be enough.
However Thatcher is no longer UK PM or even alive, Boris is
Yes, but she is more of a PM when long since dead than Boris Johnson is while still very much alive.
That poll has the nasty, grinding-rock feeling of the Great British electorate starting to decide that SKS is a bit of a dud. That tends to only go one way, once it sets in.
I don't carry a torch for Starmer ( I have been a Tory for most of my adult life), but I also heard people write Cameron off in a similar way, and also John Major. The latter went on to win a GE and the former won twice. Incidentally, I recall that John Major was once "more popular than Churchill" according to an opinion poll and headline for the Telegraph in 1991 (1st Gulf War). He wasnt so popular by 1997! Opinion polls in the middle of a pandemics or crisis mean jack shit. Starmer will also be helped by the slow realisation, even by the politically slow, that Boris Johnson is an incompetent buffoon ("oh the vaccine rollout, the vaccine rollout" the politically gullible will still be saying ad nauseam!)
Boris Johnson is the most written off and underestimated politician in my lifetime, though, however competent he may be at governing. I first heard someone write him off in 2008, during his campaign to be Mayor of London. I wonder if people will still be making that mistake if he's PM a decade from now?
He has surprised me on several occasions. The thing is, we might think he is an incompetent buffon, he might well be an incompetent buffoon, but so far he has succeeded electorally. No that doesn't mean he will always do so, but it does mean we cannot rule out further success, whether it be luck or something else.
Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendum
I think you have misunderstood./ Brexit IS the material change in circumstances. Sufficient in itself.
If the SNP fail to win a majority after Brexit it clearly for most Scots is not
Compared to England where the Tories are now massively dominant now thanks to Brexit? The divergence between the two nations is already much worse than it was.
And you are moving the goalposts yet again. You need to include the Scottish Greens, too.
No we don't, the Greens are not an explicitly nationalist party like the SNP, it was only the SNP majority in 2011 which led Cameron and the UK government to even consider allowing the 2014 independence referendum. If no SNP majority at all the UK government will of course refuse to even consider allowing a legal indyref2
The Greens are in support of independence. To argue that they should be ignored is a remarkable piece of intellectual tergiversation. And not one to be encouraged in rational debate, above all on PB where people's bets depend on rational analysis free of moving goalposts.
Remember: Mrs T herself accepted that a simple majority of SNP MPs in Scottish MPs was sufficient to trigger independence tout court. (not in quite those words, but what other way was there then to obtain a majority statement of intent?)
She did not actually say that, all she said in the Downing Street Years was ' “The Tory Party is not, of course, an English party, but a Unionist one. If it sometimes seems English to some Scots, that is because the Union is inevitably dominated by England by reason of its greater population. The Scots, being an historic nation with a proud past, will inevitably resent some expressions of this fact from time to time.
“As a nation, they have an undoubted right to national self-determination; thus far they have exercised that right by joining and remaining in the Union. Should they determine on independence, no English party or politician would stand in their way, however much we might regret their departure.”' Never that a majority of SNP MPs alone would be enough.
However Thatcher is no longer UK PM or even alive, Boris is
Yes, but she is more of a PM when long since dead than Boris Johnson is while still very much alive.
That poll has the nasty, grinding-rock feeling of the Great British electorate starting to decide that SKS is a bit of a dud. That tends to only go one way, once it sets in.
The electorate isn't monolithic on this - as (I think) OGH pointed out, he's a pin-up boy for soft LibDems. One of my close relatives has been a LibDem for 30 years but is now switching. But as a wealthy, suburban professional and Remainer, he is atypical.
Starmer will do nothing for Labour in the red wall though. No matter how many flags he hides in front of.
Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendum
I think you have misunderstood./ Brexit IS the material change in circumstances. Sufficient in itself.
If the SNP fail to win a majority after Brexit it clearly for most Scots is not
Compared to England where the Tories are now massively dominant now thanks to Brexit? The divergence between the two nations is already much worse than it was.
And you are moving the goalposts yet again. You need to include the Scottish Greens, too.
No we don't, the Greens are not an explicitly nationalist party like the SNP, it was only the SNP majority in 2011 which led Cameron and the UK government to even consider allowing the 2014 independence referendum. If no SNP majority at all the UK government will of course refuse to even consider allowing a legal indyref2
The Greens are in support of independence. To argue that they should be ignored is a remarkable piece of intellectual tergiversation. And not one to be encouraged in rational debate, above all on PB where people's bets depend on rational analysis free of moving goalposts.
Remember: Mrs T herself accepted that a simple majority of SNP MPs in Scottish MPs was sufficient to trigger independence tout court. (not in quite those words, but what other way was there then to obtain a majority statement of intent?)
She did not actually say that, all she said in the Downing Street Years was ' “The Tory Party is not, of course, an English party, but a Unionist one. If it sometimes seems English to some Scots, that is because the Union is inevitably dominated by England by reason of its greater population. The Scots, being an historic nation with a proud past, will inevitably resent some expressions of this fact from time to time.
“As a nation, they have an undoubted right to national self-determination; thus far they have exercised that right by joining and remaining in the Union. Should they determine on independence, no English party or politician would stand in their way, however much we might regret their departure.”' Never that a majority of SNP MPs alone would be enough.
However Thatcher is no longer UK PM or even alive, Boris is
Yes, but she is more of a PM when long since dead than Boris Johnson is while still very much alive.
Oh don't be so stupidly partisan. For one, I wasn't comparing Bozo with Starmer (he is leader of Labour btw, and is as yet largely untested!), I was comparing Johnson with Margaret Thatcher, who was, love her or loathe her, a colossus. The only thing about Boris er er er Johnson is his stomach, and the colossal consequences of his incompetence ("oh but the vaccines the vaccines" you will no doubt nauseously and obsequiously cry in your inability to point to anything else he has got lucky with while in office).
Sounds like you're the only one crying as Boris' ratings continue to climb on the back of his world-beating vaccine rollout.
It's almost as if he knows much more about how to do the job than you do...
He knows how to gull the gullible if you consider that is part of his job? Speaking of the supremely gullible, I have decided that for Lent I will start being nice to them. How are you today? Having a good one?
I do hope that you don't teach students at the Nigel Foremain School of Political Leadership that winning over voters is an irrelevant skill for a politician. That way lies humiliating defeat of the sort suffered at Boris' hands by Ken Livingstone, the Remain campaign, the Tory Wets, Change UK, the Lib Dems, the Labour Party...
Oh dear, you have got it bad. You really are a believer aren't you?
He can 'defend' himself by claiming now the data shows that that is good, but of course there was no data showing quasi ineffectiveness so that'd be bull.
I used to give MPs some benefit of the doubt on this and assume they were usually made to look silly by a really junior staff member just processing receipts without looking at them. However we are now getting to the stage that you have to question the judgement of an MP who doesn’t get someone to run a sense check on their expenses, given the stories that keep turning up. None of them ever seem to though.
If the options were looking bad either way, it won't make much of a difference, so you go for the least bad option.
It suggests to me that the legal advice (if it shows up unredacted, still an IF) is bad for Sturgeon but not necessarily fatal. So they've decided to risk it, and hope she survives rather than throwing Swinney out to thwart the inquiry (which would look VERY bad)
Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 (given the 2016 election was before Brexit) and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendum
Not so. If the pro-Independence parties maintain a majority then the material change of Brexit is more than enough justification for a referendum. They will have both the electoral support and the material reason to call one. Whether they will win is another matter but that is for the Scottish people to decide. They deserve to be given that chance.
No. There was already an SNP and Green majority at Holyrood even before the Brexit vote. If the SNP cannot even match the majority they got in 2011 before the 2014 referendum after Brexit there is absolutely zero grounds for any indyref2 and this Tory government will correctly and easily refuse a legal indyref2 and the 2014 'once in a generation' referendum will be respected.
If you don't think Brexit was a material change then why have you spent the last 4 years so adamant that it should be enacted? You and I both know that the Unionist side campaigned strongly on the fact that the only way to secure the future of Scotland within the EU was to vote against independence and now that we have Brexited, against the wishes of a very clear majority of Scots, it is only right that the question should be revisited.
You may not wish Scotland to become independent but to deny them that choice is thoroughly undemocratic.
No it isn't, it is entirely in accordance with the Scotland Act 1998 in which Union matters are reserved to Westminster.
We Tories have a majority at Westminster, have been clear 2014 was a once in a generation vote and will not therefore allow a legal indyref2.
If it was such a material change anyway Yes would be over 62% given 62% of Scots voted Remain in 2016, not just 43% ie even less than it got in 2014
If the options were looking bad either way, it won't make much of a difference, so you go for the least bad option.
It suggests to me that the legal advice (if it shows up unredacted, still an IF) is bad for Sturgeon but not necessarily fatal. So they've decided to risk it, and hope she survives rather than throwing Swinney out to thwart the inquiry (which would look VERY bad)
Still, it's all pretty shit for the SNP. lol
Or he’s knifing her and wants to be first minister....
Buying earphones on expenses is fair enough. After all, she is an MP and a very senior one, and she doesn’t live alone. She will hear lots of things that need to be kept confidential. From that point of view, I wouldn’t even have a problem with them being top of the range. Same with any MP. I want them to have the tech to do their job, and do it well, and I don’t mind paying for that.
But if she wants them personalised, she pays that extra herself. That’s what looks bad here (if it’s true).
Just as, my school gives me a laptop. It’s not top of the range but it’s OK. It does the job. If I want something bells and whistles, which will dance when I command it to and I use for things other than work, I would expect to pay for it myself.
So it had to be gouged out of him, and he only did it at the last minute, to save his skin. Do the SNP realise how bad this looks?!
The whole thing is unbelievable and if the SNP hold onto their popularity they will be very lucky
The SNP are the party of independence. Lots and lots and lots of people want independence. So they'll keep voting for the SNP regardless of the circumstances.
This is uncontroversial. So long as the core policy remains in place they can get away with anything, and still scoop up at least 45% of the constituency vote.
I wondered whether the tory recovery group's best chance of earlier lockdown release might be hijacking the Sunak budget. Labour will vote against that, after all.
Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 (given the 2016 election was before Brexit) and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendum
Not so. If the pro-Independence parties maintain a majority then the material change of Brexit is more than enough justification for a referendum. They will have both the electoral support and the material reason to call one. Whether they will win is another matter but that is for the Scottish people to decide. They deserve to be given that chance.
No. There was already an SNP and Green majority at Holyrood even before the Brexit vote. If the SNP cannot even match the majority they got in 2011 before the 2014 referendum after Brexit there is absolutely zero grounds for any indyref2 and this Tory government will correctly and easily refuse a legal indyref2 and the 2014 'once in a generation' referendum will be respected.
If you don't think Brexit was a material change then why have you spent the last 4 years so adamant that it should be enacted? You and I both know that the Unionist side campaigned strongly on the fact that the only way to secure the future of Scotland within the EU was to vote against independence and now that we have Brexited, against the wishes of a very clear majority of Scots, it is only right that the question should be revisited.
You may not wish Scotland to become independent but to deny them that choice is thoroughly undemocratic.
No it isn't, it is entirely in accordance with the Scotland Act 1998 in which Union matters are reserved to Westminster.
We Tories have a majority at Westminster, have been clear 2014 was a once in a generation vote and will not therefore allow a legal indyref2.
If it was such a material change anyway Yes would be over 62% given 62% of Scots voted Remain in 2016, not just 43% ie even less than it got in 2014
If we had relied upon opinion polls as an indicator of whether or not to hold a referendum there would never have been a Brexit vote.
Why are you so afraid of an Independence vote if you are so sure the Unionists would win?
Yes, referendums are unpredictable, which is even more reason to refuse an indyref2 and respect the 'once in a generation' 2014 vote.
As a non Tory you are entitled to your opinion but we Tories have a majority and we will say a firm no and refuse a legal indyref2 as we are entitled to do under the Scotland Act 1998
I used to give MPs some benefit of the doubt on this and assume they were usually made to look silly by a really junior staff member just processing receipts without looking at them. However we are now getting to the stage that you have to question the judgement of an MP who doesn’t get someone to run a sense check on their expenses, given the stories that keep turning up. None of them ever seem to though.
Same thing when parties get knuckles rapped for election expenses issues. Yes, the law and guidance can be a confusing mess sometimes, but the parties at least have the people and resources to make sure they don't cock up. Benefit of the doubt goes to intentional action.
If the options were looking bad either way, it won't make much of a difference, so you go for the least bad option.
It suggests to me that the legal advice (if it shows up unredacted, still an IF) is bad for Sturgeon but not necessarily fatal. So they've decided to risk it, and hope she survives rather than throwing Swinney out to thwart the inquiry (which would look VERY bad)
Still, it's all pretty shit for the SNP. lol
Or he’s knifing her and wants to be first minister....
He didn’t learn from before then that he’s just not very good as a leader?
If the options were looking bad either way, it won't make much of a difference, so you go for the least bad option.
It suggests to me that the legal advice (if it shows up unredacted, still an IF) is bad for Sturgeon but not necessarily fatal. So they've decided to risk it, and hope she survives rather than throwing Swinney out to thwart the inquiry (which would look VERY bad)
Still, it's all pretty shit for the SNP. lol
Or he’s knifing her and wants to be first minister....
I have on occasions read opinions from Roddy Dunlop QC. They don't tend to be difficult to follow. Clear and succinct in my experience.
Interesting header; of course, the Scottish Greens (who are slated to do well, much better than the LDs) are also a pro-independence party, so it's not just a matter of the SNP.
It is, if there is no change to the current SNP and Green majority at Holyrood then the SNP have zero grounds to claim a 'material change in circumstances' due to Brexit for indyref2 and in 2011 it was only the SNP majority Salmond won that led to the 2014 independence referendum
I think you have misunderstood./ Brexit IS the material change in circumstances. Sufficient in itself.
If the SNP fail to win a majority after Brexit it clearly for most Scots is not
Compared to England where the Tories are now massively dominant now thanks to Brexit? The divergence between the two nations is already much worse than it was.
And you are moving the goalposts yet again. You need to include the Scottish Greens, too.
No we don't, the Greens are not an explicitly nationalist party like the SNP, it was only the SNP majority in 2011 which led Cameron and the UK government to even consider allowing the 2014 independence referendum. If no SNP majority at all the UK government will of course refuse to even consider allowing a legal indyref2
The Greens are in support of independence. To argue that they should be ignored is a remarkable piece of intellectual tergiversation. And not one to be encouraged in rational debate, above all on PB where people's bets depend on rational analysis free of moving goalposts.
Remember: Mrs T herself accepted that a simple majority of SNP MPs in Scottish MPs was sufficient to trigger independence tout court. (not in quite those words, but what other way was there then to obtain a majority statement of intent?)
She did not actually say that, all she said in the Downing Street Years was ' “The Tory Party is not, of course, an English party, but a Unionist one. If it sometimes seems English to some Scots, that is because the Union is inevitably dominated by England by reason of its greater population. The Scots, being an historic nation with a proud past, will inevitably resent some expressions of this fact from time to time.
“As a nation, they have an undoubted right to national self-determination; thus far they have exercised that right by joining and remaining in the Union. Should they determine on independence, no English party or politician would stand in their way, however much we might regret their departure.”' Never that a majority of SNP MPs alone would be enough.
However Thatcher is no longer UK PM or even alive, Boris is
Yes, but she is more of a PM when long since dead than Boris Johnson is while still very much alive.
That poll has the nasty, grinding-rock feeling of the Great British electorate starting to decide that SKS is a bit of a dud. That tends to only go one way, once it sets in.
I don't carry a torch for Starmer ( I have been a Tory for most of my adult life), but I also heard people write Cameron off in a similar way, and also John Major. The latter went on to win a GE and the former won twice. Incidentally, I recall that John Major was once "more popular than Churchill" according to an opinion poll and headline for the Telegraph in 1991 (1st Gulf War). He wasnt so popular by 1997! Opinion polls in the middle of a pandemics or crisis mean jack shit. Starmer will also be helped by the slow realisation, even by the politically slow, that Boris Johnson is an incompetent buffoon ("oh the vaccine rollout, the vaccine rollout" the politically gullible will still be saying ad nauseam!)
Starmer strikes me as a UK Hollande or Biden, he will not win because he is a greatly popular, charismatic leader but because he is a relatively offensive alternative to an unpopular populist leader, if that is the case in 2024
‘tis the general way of things. Trump only won because he wasn’t Clinton. Macron because he wasn’t Le Pen. Johnson because he wasn’t Corbyn. People do tend to vote negatively.
Not really, Trump was a charismatic leader as Macron and Boris are too, all got lots of votes for them, not just against the other guy as Biden and Hollande did.
Buying earphones on expenses is fair enough. After all, she is an MP and a very senior one, and she doesn’t live alone. She will hear lots of things that need to be kept confidential. From that point of view, I wouldn’t even have a problem with them being top of the range. Same with any MP. I want them to have the tech to do their job, and do it well, and I don’t mind paying for that.
But if she wants them personalised, she pays that extra herself. That’s what looks bad here (if it’s true).
Just as, my school gives me a laptop. It’s not top of the range but it’s OK. It does the job. If I want something bells and whistles, which will dance when I command it to and I use for things other than work, I would expect to pay for it myself.
I've always thought that. I think the seminal argument back in the expenses day for me was around a trouser press. As far as I saw it it'd be fine to pay for formal trousers for an MP if they don't have any or might struggle to afford them even on their salary, you need formal attire to attend the Commons chamber. But it doesn't matter how sharp your creases are or how flat the rest of the fabric is, so you can pay for that yourself.
So it had to be gouged out of him, and he only did it at the last minute, to save his skin. Do the SNP realise how bad this looks?!
The whole thing is unbelievable and if the SNP hold onto their popularity they will be very lucky
The SNP are the party of independence. Lots and lots and lots of people want independence. So they'll keep voting for the SNP regardless of the circumstances.
This is uncontroversial. So long as the core policy remains in place they can get away with anything, and still scoop up at least 45% of the constituency vote.
Time will tell but as has been pointed out a considerable number of SNP supporters were formerly labour and support the union, they just thought the SNP would govern Scotland better
It is now uncertain just how many of these supporters will stay will the SNP and as I have said before, some of my Scots family members are SNP supporters but also pro the Union
So it had to be gouged out of him, and he only did it at the last minute, to save his skin. Do the SNP realise how bad this looks?!
The whole thing is unbelievable and if the SNP hold onto their popularity they will be very lucky
The SNP are the party of independence. Lots and lots and lots of people want independence. So they'll keep voting for the SNP regardless of the circumstances.
This is uncontroversial. So long as the core policy remains in place they can get away with anything, and still scoop up at least 45% of the constituency vote.
These things are never settled
In 2005, 54% of Quebeckers wanted independence from Canada, 46% did not.
The independenc movement, however, narrowly lost their last, second referendum, and the question has never been revisited.
Nor is it likely to be. At the moment polls show 56% of Quebeckers want to stay in Canada, and only 32% want to Leave. The separatist movement has collapsed
Unionists just have to show some backbone, and remain steady under fire, while developing some positive reasons for Scotland to stay in the UK: for the inevitable 2nd ref, which WILL come (just not in the short term)
Buying earphones on expenses is fair enough. After all, she is an MP and a very senior one, and she doesn’t live alone. She will hear lots of things that need to be kept confidential. From that point of view, I wouldn’t even have a problem with them being top of the range. Same with any MP. I want them to have the tech to do their job, and do it well, and I don’t mind paying for that.
But if she wants them personalised, she pays that extra herself. That’s what looks bad here (if it’s true).
Just as, my school gives me a laptop. It’s not top of the range but it’s OK. It does the job. If I want something bells and whistles, which will dance when I command it to and I use for things other than work, I would expect to pay for it myself.
It smacks of the 2009 Labour expenses scandal, all over again. One would have thought after that episode, another failure of personal proberty by senior party personnel should lead to a resignation.
So it had to be gouged out of him, and he only did it at the last minute, to save his skin. Do the SNP realise how bad this looks?!
The whole thing is unbelievable and if the SNP hold onto their popularity they will be very lucky
The SNP are the party of independence. Lots and lots and lots of people want independence. So they'll keep voting for the SNP regardless of the circumstances.
This is uncontroversial. So long as the core policy remains in place they can get away with anything, and still scoop up at least 45% of the constituency vote.
Yes, whilst Sindy support is so high, the floor to which SNP cock ups can cause the party support to fall is limited
So it had to be gouged out of him, and he only did it at the last minute, to save his skin. Do the SNP realise how bad this looks?!
The whole thing is unbelievable and if the SNP hold onto their popularity they will be very lucky
The SNP are the party of independence. Lots and lots and lots of people want independence. So they'll keep voting for the SNP regardless of the circumstances.
This is uncontroversial. So long as the core policy remains in place they can get away with anything, and still scoop up at least 45% of the constituency vote.
These things are never settled
In 2005, 54% of Quebeckers wanted independence from Canada, 46% did not.
The independenc movement, however, narrowly lost their last, second referendum, and the question has never been revisited.
Nor is it likely to be. At the moment polls show 56% of Quebeckers want to stay in Canada, and only 32% want to Leave. The separatist movement has collapsed
Unionists just have to show some backbone, and remain steady under fire, while developing some positive reasons for Scotland to stay in the UK: for the inevitable 2nd ref, which WILL come (just not in the short term)
So it had to be gouged out of him, and he only did it at the last minute, to save his skin. Do the SNP realise how bad this looks?!
The whole thing is unbelievable and if the SNP hold onto their popularity they will be very lucky
The SNP are the party of independence. Lots and lots and lots of people want independence. So they'll keep voting for the SNP regardless of the circumstances.
This is uncontroversial. So long as the core policy remains in place they can get away with anything, and still scoop up at least 45% of the constituency vote.
Time will tell but as has been pointed out a considerable number of SNP supporters were formerly labour and support the union, they just thought the SNP would govern Scotland better
It is now uncertain just how many of these supporters will stay will the SNP and as I have said before, some of my Scots family members are SNP supporters but also pro the Union
Yes, after many years of appearing sensible and competent compared to Westminster, suddenly the SNP look hugely inept, riven with internal wars, and incapable of being honest. This may make voters scrutinise the rest of their record, and think Hmmm, because their record is not very good
That's the big damage from Salmondgate. It removes the SNP's and Sturgeon's supposed USP: calm and measured governance.
Buying earphones on expenses is fair enough. After all, she is an MP and a very senior one, and she doesn’t live alone. She will hear lots of things that need to be kept confidential. From that point of view, I wouldn’t even have a problem with them being top of the range. Same with any MP. I want them to have the tech to do their job, and do it well, and I don’t mind paying for that.
But if she wants them personalised, she pays that extra herself. That’s what looks bad here (if it’s true).
Just as, my school gives me a laptop. It’s not top of the range but it’s OK. It does the job. If I want something bells and whistles, which will dance when I command it to and I use for things other than work, I would expect to pay for it myself.
It smacks of the 2009 Labour expenses scandal, all over again. One would have thought after that episode, another failure of personal proberty by senior party personnel should lead to a resignation.
One would at least have hoped they had learned the fecking lesson - don’t take the piss.
Note on the list vote the SNP is already below the 41% it got in 2016 now at 38% on this poll.
On the constituency vote it is still up on the 46.5% it got then but if Labour under its new leader Anas Sarwar makes inroads even that could be under threat
I must admit I don't really have a good answer for why the gap between constituency and list votes for the SNP (regardless of the overall level) differ so much, much more than at the last election.
Any thoughts on whether that gap is real?
That is because people are going to give other independence parties their second vote. Last time they had nearly a million on list but due to winning most on constituency seats they got something like 4 list seats. So 800000 wasted votes. If they all went to another independence party they would get probably 20-30 extra seats.
Buying earphones on expenses is fair enough. After all, she is an MP and a very senior one, and she doesn’t live alone. She will hear lots of things that need to be kept confidential. From that point of view, I wouldn’t even have a problem with them being top of the range. Same with any MP. I want them to have the tech to do their job, and do it well, and I don’t mind paying for that.
But if she wants them personalised, she pays that extra herself. That’s what looks bad here (if it’s true).
Just as, my school gives me a laptop. It’s not top of the range but it’s OK. It does the job. If I want something bells and whistles, which will dance when I command it to and I use for things other than work, I would expect to pay for it myself.
So it had to be gouged out of him, and he only did it at the last minute, to save his skin. Do the SNP realise how bad this looks?!
The whole thing is unbelievable and if the SNP hold onto their popularity they will be very lucky
The SNP are the party of independence. Lots and lots and lots of people want independence. So they'll keep voting for the SNP regardless of the circumstances.
This is uncontroversial. So long as the core policy remains in place they can get away with anything, and still scoop up at least 45% of the constituency vote.
And as long as the Unionists parties only offer no to independence, thus will it stay. Given the utter dearth of policy or ideas offered by them it could be argued that they're actually more dependent on the constitutional debate than the SNP; in fact if the debate was suddenly magically resolved, the Tories in particular would revert to the dried out husk of the 90's and 2000s.
Buying earphones on expenses is fair enough. After all, she is an MP and a very senior one, and she doesn’t live alone. She will hear lots of things that need to be kept confidential. From that point of view, I wouldn’t even have a problem with them being top of the range. Same with any MP. I want them to have the tech to do their job, and do it well, and I don’t mind paying for that.
But if she wants them personalised, she pays that extra herself. That’s what looks bad here (if it’s true).
Just as, my school gives me a laptop. It’s not top of the range but it’s OK. It does the job. If I want something bells and whistles, which will dance when I command it to and I use for things other than work, I would expect to pay for it myself.
It smacks of the 2009 Labour expenses scandal, all over again. One would have thought after that episode, another failure of personal proberty by senior party personnel should lead to a resignation.
One would at least have hoped they had learned the fecking lesson - don’t take the piss.
I need to see proof of "personalised" airpods. And what does "personalisation" mean?
This site implies that if you buy the top range of Airpods you can personalise them for free. So she did that, and it cost us nothing
If the options were looking bad either way, it won't make much of a difference, so you go for the least bad option.
It suggests to me that the legal advice (if it shows up unredacted, still an IF) is bad for Sturgeon but not necessarily fatal. So they've decided to risk it, and hope she survives rather than throwing Swinney out to thwart the inquiry (which would look VERY bad)
Still, it's all pretty shit for the SNP. lol
Or he’s knifing her and wants to be first minister....
Swinney, the whispering ghost shadow? Fuck me. That would be the most noticeable thing he'd done in a while.
But let's see this legal advice. Out of interest did many folk here sit through the full Salmond session to the committee? Even having seen it all coming on the indy blogs, it was still remarkable.
If the options were looking bad either way, it won't make much of a difference, so you go for the least bad option.
It suggests to me that the legal advice (if it shows up unredacted, still an IF) is bad for Sturgeon but not necessarily fatal. So they've decided to risk it, and hope she survives rather than throwing Swinney out to thwart the inquiry (which would look VERY bad)
Still, it's all pretty shit for the SNP. lol
Or he’s knifing her and wants to be first minister....
Swinney, the whispering ghost shadow? Fuck me. That would be the most noticeable thing he'd done in a while.
But let's see this legal advice. Out of interest did many folk here sit through the full Salmond session to the committee? Even having seen it all coming on the indy blogs, it was still remarkable.
I see that the Scottish Greens are standing in only two of the nine constituencies in the Lothian Region.
Situation would be a lot harder for the SNP if the Greens saw this as an opportunity to win support as a party of independence not embroiled in scandal.
Don't be a silly billy , they have no chance of winning constituency seats whatsoever.
Buying earphones on expenses is fair enough. After all, she is an MP and a very senior one, and she doesn’t live alone. She will hear lots of things that need to be kept confidential. From that point of view, I wouldn’t even have a problem with them being top of the range. Same with any MP. I want them to have the tech to do their job, and do it well, and I don’t mind paying for that.
But if she wants them personalised, she pays that extra herself. That’s what looks bad here (if it’s true).
Just as, my school gives me a laptop. It’s not top of the range but it’s OK. It does the job. If I want something bells and whistles, which will dance when I command it to and I use for things other than work, I would expect to pay for it myself.
Getting your Airpods engraved at Apple is free.
And costs £50 more than buying the identical model, unengraved, from Amazon.
So it had to be gouged out of him, and he only did it at the last minute, to save his skin. Do the SNP realise how bad this looks?!
The whole thing is unbelievable and if the SNP hold onto their popularity they will be very lucky
The SNP are the party of independence. Lots and lots and lots of people want independence. So they'll keep voting for the SNP regardless of the circumstances.
This is uncontroversial. So long as the core policy remains in place they can get away with anything, and still scoop up at least 45% of the constituency vote.
Time will tell but as has been pointed out a considerable number of SNP supporters were formerly labour and support the union, they just thought the SNP would govern Scotland better
It is now uncertain just how many of these supporters will stay will the SNP and as I have said before, some of my Scots family members are SNP supporters but also pro the Union
Yes, after many years of appearing sensible and competent compared to Westminster, suddenly the SNP look hugely inept, riven with internal wars, and incapable of being honest. This may make voters scrutinise the rest of their record, and think Hmmm, because their record is not very good
That's the big damage from Salmondgate. It removes the SNP's and Sturgeon's supposed USP: calm and measured governance.
They have been staggeringly incompetent in the way that they have governed Scotland.
Our education system, once a source of legitimate pride, is falling into disarray.
Our Universities are in a very bad place, dependent upon non EU students who might not come and English students who are no longer to be funded up here.
Police Scotland has been a disaster, remote, unaccountable and incompetent. The number of people are not large but this police force covers 1/3rd of the British land mass. It just doesn't work.
The centralisation of regulation has gutted local authorities of their responsibilities. Indeed local authorities have been starved of funds to generate the cash for SNP showpieces.
£20-30m has been wasted on Bifab, another £20m on Ferguson Shipyard, £20m on wrongful prosecution of the Rangers administrators with more to come, £20-30m on the nationalisation of Prestwick airport, its staggering.
None of that has mattered to a political generation who never think beyond constitutional issues. We really need a change.
If the options were looking bad either way, it won't make much of a difference, so you go for the least bad option.
It suggests to me that the legal advice (if it shows up unredacted, still an IF) is bad for Sturgeon but not necessarily fatal. So they've decided to risk it, and hope she survives rather than throwing Swinney out to thwart the inquiry (which would look VERY bad)
Still, it's all pretty shit for the SNP. lol
Or he’s knifing her and wants to be first minister....
Swinney, the whispering ghost shadow? Fuck me. That would be the most noticeable thing he'd done in a while.
But let's see this legal advice. Out of interest did many folk here sit through the full Salmond session to the committee? Even having seen it all coming on the indy blogs, it was still remarkable.
So it had to be gouged out of him, and he only did it at the last minute, to save his skin. Do the SNP realise how bad this looks?!
The whole thing is unbelievable and if the SNP hold onto their popularity they will be very lucky
The SNP are the party of independence. Lots and lots and lots of people want independence. So they'll keep voting for the SNP regardless of the circumstances.
This is uncontroversial. So long as the core policy remains in place they can get away with anything, and still scoop up at least 45% of the constituency vote.
Time will tell but as has been pointed out a considerable number of SNP supporters were formerly labour and support the union, they just thought the SNP would govern Scotland better
It is now uncertain just how many of these supporters will stay will the SNP and as I have said before, some of my Scots family members are SNP supporters but also pro the Union
Yes, after many years of appearing sensible and competent compared to Westminster, suddenly the SNP look hugely inept, riven with internal wars, and incapable of being honest. This may make voters scrutinise the rest of their record, and think Hmmm, because their record is not very good
That's the big damage from Salmondgate. It removes the SNP's and Sturgeon's supposed USP: calm and measured governance.
Tories have an interesting line to tread on all this. They need to damage the SNP to the extent that it really hurts independence. But not to the extent that it trashes the SNP so that Labour can start getting material numbers of Westminster seats. A seriously wounded Sturgeon still in place is probably Boris's best outcome.
If the options were looking bad either way, it won't make much of a difference, so you go for the least bad option.
It suggests to me that the legal advice (if it shows up unredacted, still an IF) is bad for Sturgeon but not necessarily fatal. So they've decided to risk it, and hope she survives rather than throwing Swinney out to thwart the inquiry (which would look VERY bad)
Still, it's all pretty shit for the SNP. lol
Or he’s knifing her and wants to be first minister....
Swinney, the whispering ghost shadow? Fuck me. That would be the most noticeable thing he'd done in a while.
But let's see this legal advice. Out of interest did many folk here sit through the full Salmond session to the committee? Even having seen it all coming on the indy blogs, it was still remarkable.
I did and it was remarkable if you are interested in Scotland and it's politics
So it had to be gouged out of him, and he only did it at the last minute, to save his skin. Do the SNP realise how bad this looks?!
The whole thing is unbelievable and if the SNP hold onto their popularity they will be very lucky
The SNP are the party of independence. Lots and lots and lots of people want independence. So they'll keep voting for the SNP regardless of the circumstances.
This is uncontroversial. So long as the core policy remains in place they can get away with anything, and still scoop up at least 45% of the constituency vote.
Time will tell but as has been pointed out a considerable number of SNP supporters were formerly labour and support the union, they just thought the SNP would govern Scotland better
It is now uncertain just how many of these supporters will stay will the SNP and as I have said before, some of my Scots family members are SNP supporters but also pro the Union
Yes, after many years of appearing sensible and competent compared to Westminster, suddenly the SNP look hugely inept, riven with internal wars, and incapable of being honest. This may make voters scrutinise the rest of their record, and think Hmmm, because their record is not very good
That's the big damage from Salmondgate. It removes the SNP's and Sturgeon's supposed USP: calm and measured governance.
They have been staggeringly incompetent in the way that they have governed Scotland.
Our education system, once a source of legitimate pride, is falling into disarray.
Our Universities are in a very bad place, dependent upon non EU students who might not come and English students who are no longer to be funded up here.
Police Scotland has been a disaster, remote, unaccountable and incompetent. The number of people are not large but this police force covers 1/3rd of the British land mass. It just doesn't work.
The centralisation of regulation has gutted local authorities of their responsibilities. Indeed local authorities have been starved of funds to generate the cash for SNP showpieces.
£20-30m has been wasted on Bifab, another £20m on Ferguson Shipyard, £20m on wrongful prosecution of the Rangers administrators with more to come, £20-30m on the nationalisation of Prestwick airport, its staggering.
None of that has mattered to a political generation who never think beyond constitutional issues. We really need a change.
I thought the bill for the vexatiious prosecution of Rangers' people was headed for £100m.
Buying earphones on expenses is fair enough. After all, she is an MP and a very senior one, and she doesn’t live alone. She will hear lots of things that need to be kept confidential. From that point of view, I wouldn’t even have a problem with them being top of the range. Same with any MP. I want them to have the tech to do their job, and do it well, and I don’t mind paying for that.
But if she wants them personalised, she pays that extra herself. That’s what looks bad here (if it’s true).
Just as, my school gives me a laptop. It’s not top of the range but it’s OK. It does the job. If I want something bells and whistles, which will dance when I command it to and I use for things other than work, I would expect to pay for it myself.
It smacks of the 2009 Labour expenses scandal, all over again. One would have thought after that episode, another failure of personal proberty by senior party personnel should lead to a resignation.
One would at least have hoped they had learned the fecking lesson - don’t take the piss.
I wasn't sure you weren't directing that comment at me. For a moment, I imagined you were my Accountant.
Comments
Does that make sense? So we could see the percentage decline in deaths, hospital and admissions etc from the same date for each age group?
https://twitter.com/laurahelmuth/status/1366393635940499456?s=20
It's almost as if he knows much more about how to do the job than you do...
One would have hoped PBers would have slightly more of a clue about Scotland's voting system than Galloway.
https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/1366108187557048322?s=20
https://twitter.com/andrew_croxford/status/1366424545226293257
Then this would be moot...
An unidentified MP, heckling; ‘Because it saves time.’
Trouble is, that isn’t a great scenario from rather too many other points of view.
Situation would be a lot harder for the SNP if the Greens saw this as an opportunity to win support as a party of independence not embroiled in scandal.
JVT playing it straight on European holidays and magnificently diplomatic on European countries approach to AZ.
After all, we generally have milder forms anyway and the key is to eliminate deaths and serious illnesses. Plus, it would appear, those who are mildly unwell/asymptomatic are not usually big spreaders of the disease.
That could speed things up tremendously and free up capacity across the world.
What do those people who know what they’re talking about think?
Suggest putting a log on the two sets of data.
On topic, whatever your views on the indyref question, whether Boris should allow it or not (I think he's absolutely right, and justified, in refusing, but I can see the opposing argument), the fact is, Realpolitik tells us he just won't allow it, whatever
He wants to be known as the PM who delivered Brexit and steered us through Covid (with a wobbly start and a sprinting finish). Plus then some levelling up (if he can). So far, he's doing OK, as the polls show.
Allowing a Sindyref into all that, and potentially losing Scotland from the Union, means THAT would be his epitaph, instead.
They've all learned from Brexit. Referendums ruin prime ministerial careers. Cameron will only be remembered for his Brexit defeat. Quite a tragic fate
Sindyref 2 is not going to happen until 2024 earliest
― George W. Bush
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9311719/Labour-deputy-leader-Angela-Rayner-charged-taxpayer-249-pair-PERSONALISED-AirPods.html
https://twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/1366440599025459205?s=20
An old chart...
So it had to be gouged out of him, and he only did it at the last minute, to save his skin. Do the SNP realise how bad this looks?!
Starmer will do nothing for Labour in the red wall though. No matter how many flags he hides in front of.
Still, it's all pretty shit for the SNP. lol
Why are you so afraid of an Independence vote if you are so sure the Unionists would win?
BJO says Don't f****ng fly then
But if she wants them personalised, she pays that extra herself. That’s what looks bad here (if it’s true).
Just as, my school gives me a laptop. It’s not top of the range but it’s OK. It does the job. If I want something bells and whistles, which will dance when I command it to and I use for things other than work, I would expect to pay for it myself.
This is uncontroversial. So long as the core policy remains in place they can get away with anything, and still scoop up at least 45% of the constituency vote.
But actually I'm now not sure they will!
As a non Tory you are entitled to your opinion but we Tories have a majority and we will say a firm no and refuse a legal indyref2 as we are entitled to do under the Scotland Act 1998
It is now uncertain just how many of these supporters will stay will the SNP and as I have said before, some of my Scots family members are SNP supporters but also pro the Union
In 2005, 54% of Quebeckers wanted independence from Canada, 46% did not.
The independenc movement, however, narrowly lost their last, second referendum, and the question has never been revisited.
Nor is it likely to be. At the moment polls show 56% of Quebeckers want to stay in Canada, and only 32% want to Leave. The separatist movement has collapsed
Unionists just have to show some backbone, and remain steady under fire, while developing some positive reasons for Scotland to stay in the UK: for the inevitable 2nd ref, which WILL come (just not in the short term)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_sovereignty_movement#Opinion_polls
That's the big damage from Salmondgate. It removes the SNP's and Sturgeon's supposed USP: calm and measured governance.
intends to release the key legal advice to Holyrood committee tomorrow
This site implies that if you buy the top range of Airpods you can personalise them for free. So she did that, and it cost us nothing
https://www.apple.com/uk/shop/product/MWP22ZM/A/airpods-pro
I guess you could get angry at her buying the best possible airpods, but life is probably too short for that (especially now)
This is a mild embarrassment, and no more
Swinney, the whispering ghost shadow? Fuck me. That would be the most noticeable thing he'd done in a while.
But let's see this legal advice. Out of interest did many folk here sit through the full Salmond session to the committee? Even having seen it all coming on the indy blogs, it was still remarkable.
Our education system, once a source of legitimate pride, is falling into disarray.
Our Universities are in a very bad place, dependent upon non EU students who might not come and English students who are no longer to be funded up here.
Police Scotland has been a disaster, remote, unaccountable and incompetent. The number of people are not large but this police force covers 1/3rd of the British land mass. It just doesn't work.
The centralisation of regulation has gutted local authorities of their responsibilities. Indeed local authorities have been starved of funds to generate the cash for SNP showpieces.
£20-30m has been wasted on Bifab, another £20m on Ferguson Shipyard, £20m on wrongful prosecution of the Rangers administrators with more to come, £20-30m on the nationalisation of Prestwick airport, its staggering.
None of that has mattered to a political generation who never think beyond constitutional issues. We really need a change.