With 10 weeks to go to the Holyrood election new Scottish poll has the SNP down to lowest point sinc
With 10 weeks to go to the Holyrood election new Scottish poll has the SNP down to lowest point since GE2019 – politicalbetting.com
Probably the biggest elections taking place in the UK on the first Thursday of May are for the Scottish Parliament where a majority for the SNP could be important plank in its effort to have another referendum on the country being independent.
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Ah, the Sunday Rawnsley ...
It is always worth hearing incisive commentary on Scotland from a man who rarely leaves South-West London.
On the constituency vote it is still up on the 46.5% it got then but if Labour under its new leader Anas Sarwar makes inroads even that could be under threat
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1366338126097055744?s=20
Any thoughts on whether that gap is real?
For those that want a referendum in the near future Brexit is a valid reason for why there is no need for a generation +1 gap between referendums.
For those that don't want a referendum Brexit isn't a sufficient significant reason and there needs to be a generational gap.
The fact that Boris is both the reason behind Brexit and the reason why Scotland would vote for independence is neither here nor there.
Personally I do think there needs to be an Royal Commission to investigate independence so that the difficult questions (Government debt, currency, oil, nuclear deterrent) can't be sidestepped in the referendum as the awkward topics were last time around.
Were the UK Government to present the SNP with a long set of hard to answer and currently unanswered questions independence would be far harder than it currently is.
The most interesting result will be if the direction of travel continues and with better leadership both Labour and Tory pick up wavering unionist voters that are now looking at what kind of country the SNP are building.
The way the SNP leadership have used the power of the state to persecute a political enemy has been a real eye opener for me. The lack of separation between the political process and state processes is a huge concern for me in the UK, but in Scotland there doesn't really seem to be one.
When the government lose court cases (as with A50 and the prorogation) it strengthens our nation to have a part of the state that is independent from political persuasion and forces the government to seek democratic mandates.
Honestly, I understand that independence is a hugely important aim and were I Scottish I'd be in favour of it. However, I'd also be very worried about the SNP turning into the ANC of Scotland and just ruining the country with corruption and state targeting of political rivals. Honestly, I'd rather stick with an imperfect Union than risk that outcome.
What, to me, looked like a formality a few months ago (SNP majority, independence) now looks less and less likely. Using the state apparatus to target people is just wrong and it's going to turn people away from the SNP and their cause. It's a real red line.
From case data
From hospitalisation data
And you are moving the goalposts yet again. You need to include the Scottish Greens, too.
But IF an independence vote follows - which I don't think will happen in the short term - then whoever is leading SNP at the time will end up disappointed!
But one thing I think is certainly the case - that Brexit was indeed a material change of circumstances. And hence a new indyref should be held on that basis.
Moving goalposts
Moving goalposts
Remember: Mrs T herself accepted that a simple majority of SNP MPs in Scottish MPs was sufficient to trigger independence tout court. (not in quite those words, but what other way was there then to obtain a majority statement of intent?)
https://twitter.com/addicted2newz/status/1366122708812111875
In fact on the latest poll Yes is only on 43%, even below the 45% it got in 2014 despite Brexit, when you include don't knows
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1365978299265150978?s=20
“As a nation, they have an undoubted right to national self-determination; thus far they have exercised that right by joining and remaining in the Union. Should they determine on independence, no English party or politician would stand in their way, however much we might regret their departure.”' Never that a majority of SNP MPs alone would be enough.
However Thatcher is no longer UK PM or even alive, Boris is
(a) how else would they determine on independence? Other than by a majiroty of FPTP MPs at the time?
(b) it shows just how far you've moved the goalposts. All the way out of Wembley to Epping.
Edit this is also because a lot of "Green" support is in fact SNP supporters who are smart enough to realise that their party will not get list seats so they vote for a different independence party on the list.
News from Gen Z, or, the revolution eats its own
Not had to guess what why they'll swing on that one.
You may not wish Scotland to become independent but to deny them that choice is thoroughly undemocratic.
-If it isn't, it'll do until the mess gets here"
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1366433148373004288
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1366433463675609092
We Tories have a majority at Westminster, have been clear 2014 was a once in a generation vote and will not therefore allow a legal indyref2.
If it was such a material change anyway Yes would be over 62% given 62% of Scots voted Remain in 2016, not just 43% ie even less than it got in 2014
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1365978299265150978?s=20
Wales v England referee Pascal Gauzere admits he got both tries wrong
The Frenchman has come under severe criticism after Saturday's Six Nations clash, with World Rugby's Head of Match Officials now saying Gauzere has admitted his mistakes
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/rugby/rugby-news/wales-v-england-referee-pascal-19938253
The only equitable solution is to replay the match and never let a Frenchman referee an England match.
Other than the inauguration stuff, I'm not familiar with Gorman's work. If much of it is about being young and black in America then you could imagine that the ideal translator might be a young, black Dutch-American as that person might pick words that better convey some of the bits between the lines* (in the same way that a Dutch farming almanac might be ideally translated by someone with farming experience). But it's far from a certainty.
*depending on experiences, a better translator might be a White Dutch American growing up in a similar area, rather than a Black Dutch person with no experience of America.
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1366351772147671040?s=20
If it was just the 2016 local seats up again, when Labour and the Tories were neck and neck, the headlines would likely be Labour going backwards.
Can you explain the 2.5 - 3 million vaccine doses being delivered daily, please?
The prediction a couple of weeks ago was 55 million in March, which is about 1.6 million per day. And at that time I could not see anything else that would boost it before April.
Unless AZ have sorted their plant quickly or diverted from elsewhere, or Pfizer really ramped up.
The EU Commission - whilst UVDL is President - need to save UVDL's backside
The latter tries only came about due to England having to take the risks which opened up the game.
Matt Hancock saying admissions to ICU in the 80+ group are down to single figures.