politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Deferred Elections postponed from May 22nd : June 26th 2014
Swanwick on Amber Valley (Conservative WIN in 2010)
Result of council at last election (2014): Labour 24, Conservatives 21 (Labour overall majority of 3)
Result of ward at last election (2010): Conservative 1,610 (50%), Labour 983 (31%), Liberal Democrats 599 (19%) Conservative majority of 627 (19%)
Candidates duly nominated:
Comments
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Good evening, everyone.
Cheers, Mr. Hayfield.0 -
Yougov anyone ?0
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Thurday's by-election thread steals up on us unexpectedly putting an end to Osborne's short-lived aspirations to become Prime Minister.0
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@Mr Jones
"The ONS said the UK population had increased by about five million since 2001"
And the infrastructure hasn't been increased at all so it's hard to see how the political class can say there's been no negative consequences with a straight face (unless they're a pack of blank blanks of course in which case they could say anything with a straight face).
--------------------------
We got at least a couple of million taxpayers to fund our ever growing elderly population.
The Tories crow about the highest levels of employment in history. The increase are the immigrants , you know.
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Yougov anyone ?
You gov if you want to.
The lady's not for govving.0 -
Jokesurbiton said:@Mr Jones
"The ONS said the UK population had increased by about five million since 2001"
And the infrastructure hasn't been increased at all so it's hard to see how the political class can say there's been no negative consequences with a straight face (unless they're a pack of blank blanks of course in which case they could say anything with a straight face).
--------------------------
We got at least a couple of million taxpayers to fund our ever growing elderly population.
The Tories crow about the highest levels of employment in history. The increase are the immigrants , you know.
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9 out of 10 new jobs went to people from Overseas. Wasn't Migration Watch saying that. Were they joking ?MrJones said:
Jokesurbiton said:@Mr Jones
"The ONS said the UK population had increased by about five million since 2001"
And the infrastructure hasn't been increased at all so it's hard to see how the political class can say there's been no negative consequences with a straight face (unless they're a pack of blank blanks of course in which case they could say anything with a straight face).
--------------------------
We got at least a couple of million taxpayers to fund our ever growing elderly population.
The Tories crow about the highest levels of employment in history. The increase are the immigrants , you know.0 -
Absurby, as always.surbiton said:@Mr Jones
"The ONS said the UK population had increased by about five million since 2001"
And the infrastructure hasn't been increased at all so it's hard to see how the political class can say there's been no negative consequences with a straight face (unless they're a pack of blank blanks of course in which case they could say anything with a straight face).
--------------------------
We got at least a couple of million taxpayers to fund our ever growing elderly population.
The Tories crow about the highest levels of employment in history. The increase are the immigrants , you know.
From the June 2014 ONS Labour Market Statistics bulletin;
Looking at the estimates by nationality, between January to March 2013 and January to March 2014:
• the number of UK nationals working in the UK increased by 563,000 to reach 27.57 million, and
• the number of non-UK nationals working in the UK increased by 178,000 to reach 2.77 million.
The number of people in work who were non-UK born is higher than those who were non-UK nationals as some people born abroad are UK nationals. For January to March 2014, 4.55 million people in work were born abroad, 1.78 million higher than the number of non-UK nationals in work. Looking at the estimates by country of birth, between January to March 2013 and January to March 2014:
• the number of UK born people working in the UK increased by 447,000 to reach 25.77 million, and
• the number of non-UK born people working in the UK increased by 292,000 to reach 4.55 million.
Sharpen your teeth, Surby!
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You made my point. People from abroad are working hard and paying taxes.AveryLP said:
Absurby, as always.surbiton said:@Mr Jones
"The ONS said the UK population had increased by about five million since 2001"
And the infrastructure hasn't been increased at all so it's hard to see how the political class can say there's been no negative consequences with a straight face (unless they're a pack of blank blanks of course in which case they could say anything with a straight face).
--------------------------
We got at least a couple of million taxpayers to fund our ever growing elderly population.
The Tories crow about the highest levels of employment in history. The increase are the immigrants , you know.
From the June 2014 ONS Labour Market Statistics bulletin;
Looking at the estimates by nationality, between January to March 2013 and January to March 2014:
• the number of UK nationals working in the UK increased by 563,000 to reach 27.57 million, and
• the number of non-UK nationals working in the UK increased by 178,000 to reach 2.77 million.
The number of people in work who were non-UK born is higher than those who were non-UK nationals as some people born abroad are UK nationals. For January to March 2014, 4.55 million people in work were born abroad, 1.78 million higher than the number of non-UK nationals in work. Looking at the estimates by country of birth, between January to March 2013 and January to March 2014:
• the number of UK born people working in the UK increased by 447,000 to reach 25.77 million, and
• the number of non-UK born people working in the UK increased by 292,000 to reach 4.55 million.
Sharpen your teeth, Surby!0 -
I'm not in the mood to argue with this nonsense.surbiton said:
9 out of 10 new jobs went to people from Overseas. Wasn't Migration Watch saying that. Were they joking ?MrJones said:
Jokesurbiton said:@Mr Jones
"The ONS said the UK population had increased by about five million since 2001"
And the infrastructure hasn't been increased at all so it's hard to see how the political class can say there's been no negative consequences with a straight face (unless they're a pack of blank blanks of course in which case they could say anything with a straight face).
--------------------------
We got at least a couple of million taxpayers to fund our ever growing elderly population.
The Tories crow about the highest levels of employment in history. The increase are the immigrants , you know.
The negative consequences of unlimited mass immigration which the media and political class have been lying about for 14 years started off small and concentrated in a few areas. 14 years and millions of people later that is increasingly not the case.
In a nutshell, the political class need new lies.
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F1: standing starts after a safety car to come in from 2015.
http://joesaward.wordpress.com/2014/06/26/the-world-council-meets/
Is this the rule now? We get one bloody stupid rule every year? This year: double points in Abu Dhabi. Next year: a needless change to decrease safety. Because if there's one thing a sport that involves moving at 200mph needs, it's less safety.0 -
Avery's number would suggest 1 in 4?surbiton said:
9 out of 10 new jobs went to people from Overseas. Wasn't Migration Watch saying that. Were they joking ?MrJones said:
Jokesurbiton said:@Mr Jones
"The ONS said the UK population had increased by about five million since 2001"
And the infrastructure hasn't been increased at all so it's hard to see how the political class can say there's been no negative consequences with a straight face (unless they're a pack of blank blanks of course in which case they could say anything with a straight face).
--------------------------
We got at least a couple of million taxpayers to fund our ever growing elderly population.
The Tories crow about the highest levels of employment in history. The increase are the immigrants , you know.0 -
http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefingPaper/document/250MrJones said:
I'm not in the mood to argue with this nonsense.surbiton said:
9 out of 10 new jobs went to people from Overseas. Wasn't Migration Watch saying that. Were they joking ?MrJones said:
Jokesurbiton said:@Mr Jones
"The ONS said the UK population had increased by about five million since 2001"
And the infrastructure hasn't been increased at all so it's hard to see how the political class can say there's been no negative consequences with a straight face (unless they're a pack of blank blanks of course in which case they could say anything with a straight face).
--------------------------
We got at least a couple of million taxpayers to fund our ever growing elderly population.
The Tories crow about the highest levels of employment in history. The increase are the immigrants , you know.
The negative consequences of unlimited mass immigration which the media and political class have been lying about for 14 years started off small and concentrated in a few areas. 14 years and millions of people later that is increasingly not the case.
In a nutshell, the political class need new lies.
"Since 2000, employment of non-UK born workers aged 16 and over has increased by 2.2 million to over 4.3 million. Yet in this same period, employment of UK born workers has increased by just 574,000"
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You are trying to rub our noses in perversity, Surby.surbiton said:
http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefingPaper/document/250MrJones said:
I'm not in the mood to argue with this nonsense.surbiton said:
9 out of 10 new jobs went to people from Overseas. Wasn't Migration Watch saying that. Were they joking ?MrJones said:
Jokesurbiton said:@Mr Jones
"The ONS said the UK population had increased by about five million since 2001"
And the infrastructure hasn't been increased at all so it's hard to see how the political class can say there's been no negative consequences with a straight face (unless they're a pack of blank blanks of course in which case they could say anything with a straight face).
--------------------------
We got at least a couple of million taxpayers to fund our ever growing elderly population.
The Tories crow about the highest levels of employment in history. The increase are the immigrants , you know.
The negative consequences of unlimited mass immigration which the media and political class have been lying about for 14 years started off small and concentrated in a few areas. 14 years and millions of people later that is increasingly not the case.
In a nutshell, the political class need new lies.
"Since 2000, employment of non-UK born workers aged 16 and over has increased by 2.2 million to over 4.3 million. Yet in this same period, employment of UK born workers has increased by just 574,000"
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Ah, I suppose as with anything, it all depends on your baseline!surbiton said:
http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefingPaper/document/250MrJones said:
I'm not in the mood to argue with this nonsense.surbiton said:
9 out of 10 new jobs went to people from Overseas. Wasn't Migration Watch saying that. Were they joking ?MrJones said:
Jokesurbiton said:@Mr Jones
"The ONS said the UK population had increased by about five million since 2001"
And the infrastructure hasn't been increased at all so it's hard to see how the political class can say there's been no negative consequences with a straight face (unless they're a pack of blank blanks of course in which case they could say anything with a straight face).
--------------------------
We got at least a couple of million taxpayers to fund our ever growing elderly population.
The Tories crow about the highest levels of employment in history. The increase are the immigrants , you know.
The negative consequences of unlimited mass immigration which the media and political class have been lying about for 14 years started off small and concentrated in a few areas. 14 years and millions of people later that is increasingly not the case.
In a nutshell, the political class need new lies.
"Since 2000, employment of non-UK born workers aged 16 and over has increased by 2.2 million to over 4.3 million. Yet in this same period, employment of UK born workers has increased by just 574,000"0 -
I think Lab should continue to tell people about the economic benefits from opening the borders as the percentage of people who have seen the consequences with their own eyes (as opposed to taking it on trust from the TV) continues to increase.surbiton said:
http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefingPaper/document/250MrJones said:
I'm not in the mood to argue with this nonsense.surbiton said:
9 out of 10 new jobs went to people from Overseas. Wasn't Migration Watch saying that. Were they joking ?MrJones said:
Jokesurbiton said:@Mr Jones
"The ONS said the UK population had increased by about five million since 2001"
And the infrastructure hasn't been increased at all so it's hard to see how the political class can say there's been no negative consequences with a straight face (unless they're a pack of blank blanks of course in which case they could say anything with a straight face).
--------------------------
We got at least a couple of million taxpayers to fund our ever growing elderly population.
The Tories crow about the highest levels of employment in history. The increase are the immigrants , you know.
The negative consequences of unlimited mass immigration which the media and political class have been lying about for 14 years started off small and concentrated in a few areas. 14 years and millions of people later that is increasingly not the case.
In a nutshell, the political class need new lies.
"Since 2000, employment of non-UK born workers aged 16 and over has increased by 2.2 million to over 4.3 million. Yet in this same period, employment of UK born workers has increased by just 574,000"
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You are including the open door Labour years .surbiton said:
http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefingPaper/document/250MrJones said:
I'm not in the mood to argue with this nonsense.surbiton said:
9 out of 10 new jobs went to people from Overseas. Wasn't Migration Watch saying that. Were they joking ?MrJones said:
Jokesurbiton said:@Mr Jones
"The ONS said the UK population had increased by about five million since 2001"
And the infrastructure hasn't been increased at all so it's hard to see how the political class can say there's been no negative consequences with a straight face (unless they're a pack of blank blanks of course in which case they could say anything with a straight face).
--------------------------
We got at least a couple of million taxpayers to fund our ever growing elderly population.
The Tories crow about the highest levels of employment in history. The increase are the immigrants , you know.
The negative consequences of unlimited mass immigration which the media and political class have been lying about for 14 years started off small and concentrated in a few areas. 14 years and millions of people later that is increasingly not the case.
In a nutshell, the political class need new lies.
"Since 2000, employment of non-UK born workers aged 16 and over has increased by 2.2 million to over 4.3 million. Yet in this same period, employment of UK born workers has increased by just 574,000"0 -
We need foreigners to come to this country to do the jobs that English people can't do. Like playing Premier League football.0
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YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead remains five points: CON 33%, LAB 38%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%
First poll fully post Coulson verdict: Con +1, Lab +1.0 -
That depends on the group. 80% of Eastern Europeans are working hard and paying taxes, but only 60% of Africans are, and only 50% of Pakistanis and Bangladeshis are.surbiton said:
You made my point. People from abroad are working hard and paying taxes.AveryLP said:
Absurby, as always.surbiton said:@Mr Jones
"The ONS said the UK population had increased by about five million since 2001"
And the infrastructure hasn't been increased at all so it's hard to see how the political class can say there's been no negative consequences with a straight face (unless they're a pack of blank blanks of course in which case they could say anything with a straight face).
--------------------------
We got at least a couple of million taxpayers to fund our ever growing elderly population.
The Tories crow about the highest levels of employment in history. The increase are the immigrants , you know.
From the June 2014 ONS Labour Market Statistics bulletin;
Looking at the estimates by nationality, between January to March 2013 and January to March 2014:
• the number of UK nationals working in the UK increased by 563,000 to reach 27.57 million, and
• the number of non-UK nationals working in the UK increased by 178,000 to reach 2.77 million.
The number of people in work who were non-UK born is higher than those who were non-UK nationals as some people born abroad are UK nationals. For January to March 2014, 4.55 million people in work were born abroad, 1.78 million higher than the number of non-UK nationals in work. Looking at the estimates by country of birth, between January to March 2013 and January to March 2014:
• the number of UK born people working in the UK increased by 447,000 to reach 25.77 million, and
• the number of non-UK born people working in the UK increased by 292,000 to reach 4.55 million.
Sharpen your teeth, Surby!0 -
Labour like to blame the tories for everything.TGOHF said:
You are including the open door Labour years .surbiton said:
http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefingPaper/document/250MrJones said:
I'm not in the mood to argue with this nonsense.surbiton said:
9 out of 10 new jobs went to people from Overseas. Wasn't Migration Watch saying that. Were they joking ?MrJones said:
Jokesurbiton said:@Mr Jones
"The ONS said the UK population had increased by about five million since 2001"
And the infrastructure hasn't been increased at all so it's hard to see how the political class can say there's been no negative consequences with a straight face (unless they're a pack of blank blanks of course in which case they could say anything with a straight face).
--------------------------
We got at least a couple of million taxpayers to fund our ever growing elderly population.
The Tories crow about the highest levels of employment in history. The increase are the immigrants , you know.
The negative consequences of unlimited mass immigration which the media and political class have been lying about for 14 years started off small and concentrated in a few areas. 14 years and millions of people later that is increasingly not the case.
In a nutshell, the political class need new lies.
"Since 2000, employment of non-UK born workers aged 16 and over has increased by 2.2 million to over 4.3 million. Yet in this same period, employment of UK born workers has increased by just 574,000"0 -
Sorry, I was looking at country of birth. It's actually worse than that by nationality for those lagging groups. Only 58% of sub-Saharan Africans work (excluding South Africa), and only 45% of Pakistanis and Bangladeshis in the UK work. This compares to 73% of Brits.0
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Tonights You Gov LAB 354 CON 252 LD 18 OTHERS 26 (UKPR)
Ed is crap is PM Every poll in June has Ed is crap is PM0 -
bigjohnowls If Ed Miliband does get in with a small majority on around only 35% (even less than Cameron got in 2010) then he will have the lowest mandate of an incoming PM since the war, and an election victory almost entirely due to UKIP splitting the Tory vote, he will be Hollande on steroids!0
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Hmmm , such comments are likely to come and bite you in the arse. Ed is crap. Hopeless as a leader, God forbid he ever becomes PM. That's why Ed Balls and his cabal are plotting against him.....bigjohnowls said:Tonights You Gov LAB 354 CON 252 LD 18 OTHERS 26 (UKPR)
Ed is crap is PM Every poll in June has Ed is crap is PM0 -
I made an economic simulation of what would happen if you have a country with closed borders.surbiton said:
http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefingPaper/document/250MrJones said:
I'm not in the mood to argue with this nonsense.surbiton said:
9 out of 10 new jobs went to people from Overseas. Wasn't Migration Watch saying that. Were they joking ?MrJones said:
Jokesurbiton said:@Mr Jones
"The ONS said the UK population had increased by about five million since 2001"
And the infrastructure hasn't been increased at all so it's hard to see how the political class can say there's been no negative consequences with a straight face (unless they're a pack of blank blanks of course in which case they could say anything with a straight face).
--------------------------
We got at least a couple of million taxpayers to fund our ever growing elderly population.
The Tories crow about the highest levels of employment in history. The increase are the immigrants , you know.
The negative consequences of unlimited mass immigration which the media and political class have been lying about for 14 years started off small and concentrated in a few areas. 14 years and millions of people later that is increasingly not the case.
In a nutshell, the political class need new lies.
"Since 2000, employment of non-UK born workers aged 16 and over has increased by 2.2 million to over 4.3 million. Yet in this same period, employment of UK born workers has increased by just 574,000"
If its economy was growing and employment rose faster than population growth then unemployment would fall to almost 0% increasing inflation and increasing investment for productivity due to lack of workers, also the growth of the local population would increase due to the increased demand and wages for people (like the post war boom).
If its economy was declining and employment didn't rise faster than population growth then the surplus workers will reduce inflation and decreasing investment for productivity, resulting into lower or even declining natural population growth from declining wages until the surplus workforce dies off (a very slow malthusian crisis).
In this perspective open borders at times of economic growth lowers inflation but also lowers productivity, investment and the local population growth rates.
The lack of people is a great incentive to replace them with machines.0 -
With one big difference, no adultery.HYUFD said:bigjohnowls If Ed Miliband does get in with a small majority on around only 35% (even less than Cameron got in 2010) then he will have the lowest mandate of an incoming PM since the war, and an election victory almost entirely due to UKIP splitting the Tory vote, he will be Hollande on steroids!
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Sleazy Broken Basil on the slide....into depression.MikeL said:YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead remains five points: CON 33%, LAB 38%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%
First poll fully post Coulson verdict: Con +1, Lab +1.
Ed is crap = Labour still in the lead.
Never forget the PB Hodges 3 days of polling summer.0 -
LESS THAN 10.5 months to go swingback / crossover currently in reverse. Must be worrying for PB Tories that Ed is CRAP and yet the Tories have fallen further behind Lab in June compared to maySquareRoot said:
Hmmm , such comments are likely to come and bite you in the arse. Ed is crap. Hopeless as a leader, God forbid he ever becomes PM. That's why Ed Balls and his cabal are plotting against him.....bigjohnowls said:Tonights You Gov LAB 354 CON 252 LD 18 OTHERS 26 (UKPR)
Ed is crap is PM Every poll in June has Ed is crap is PM0 -
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The Tories currently hold a 1,403 vote lead in the wards comprising the Hendon constituency as we wait for the delayed election in Colindale. In 2010, with a general election turnout, Labour were ahead there by 2,084.0
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Time running out for the PB Hodges to muster some excuses:
http://countingdownto.com/countdown/1347070 -
Worrying Scenario. Fear not the ARSE predicts Tories biggest partyHYUFD said:bigjohnowls If Ed Miliband does get in with a small majority on around only 35% (even less than Cameron got in 2010) then he will have the lowest mandate of an incoming PM since the war, and an election victory almost entirely due to UKIP splitting the Tory vote, he will be Hollande on steroids!
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You're as delusional as the Tories, in your belief that the leader of your chosen political party is the one to lead us to the sunny uplands. The sooner you realise that they're not much different from each other, the happier you'll be.bigjohnowls said:
LESS THAN 10.5 months to go swingback / crossover currently in reverse. Must be worrying for PB Tories that Ed is CRAP and yet the Tories have fallen further behind Lab in June compared to maySquareRoot said:
Hmmm , such comments are likely to come and bite you in the arse. Ed is crap. Hopeless as a leader, God forbid he ever becomes PM. That's why Ed Balls and his cabal are plotting against him.....bigjohnowls said:Tonights You Gov LAB 354 CON 252 LD 18 OTHERS 26 (UKPR)
Ed is crap is PM Every poll in June has Ed is crap is PM
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FPTP democracy that Cammie fought so hard forHYUFD said:bigjohnowls If Ed Miliband does get in with a small majority on around only 35% (even less than Cameron got in 2010) then he will have the lowest mandate of an incoming PM since the war, and an election victory almost entirely due to UKIP splitting the Tory vote, he will be Hollande on steroids!
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Importing labour to subsidise our unreformed pension & welfare state isn't a policy, it's a Ponzi scheme.surbiton said:@Mr Jones
"The ONS said the UK population had increased by about five million since 2001"
And the infrastructure hasn't been increased at all so it's hard to see how the political class can say there's been no negative consequences with a straight face (unless they're a pack of blank blanks of course in which case they could say anything with a straight face).
--------------------------
We got at least a couple of million taxpayers to fund our ever growing elderly population.
The Tories crow about the highest levels of employment in history. The increase are the immigrants , you know.0 -
The PB Hodge polling If's for a Tory government:
If the economy continues to grow
If wages continually outstrip inflation
If Ukip returns to the Tories
If Lib Dems return home
If Ukip only take off the Tories in safe Tory areas
If Labour voters don't vote tactically in Lib Dem seats
If Toby gets his way and Ukip and Tory voters vote tactically
If Ukip goes to 5%
If the Lib Dems head back towards 20%
If Ed remains crap
If house prices soar
If Scotland votes for independence
If Labours campaign is crap
If Lynton gets his finger out
If unemployment keeps falling
If Cameron goes *ahem* cast iron on the in/out referendum
If the Tory MP's of the right stop their suicide mission
If the unions pull the plug on Labours money so they cannot fund a campaign
If there is a breakout of war
If the falling Tory membership still manages to campaign hard
If only they had got the boundary changes through
If there is swingback
If Ashcrofts marginal polling is wrong
If the Tory vote was spread out more like Labours and not building up in seats that are safe
If Ed is found eating kittens or some other scandal
If the Lib Dems get rid of Nick Clegg and replace him with someone more left wing
If Ukip don't stand against Euro-sceptic Tory MP's
If the focus goes back onto the two Ed's
If Labours manifesto is torn apart by the press
If the country sees sense
If the right wing voters hold their nose about Cameron and vote Tory
If the voters realise what a fantastic job the coalition has been doing
If the raising of the minimum wage will sway floating voters toffs do have hearts
If Labour polling figures are being exaggerated
If the electoral bias in FPTP is not as big as it has been historically
If the press decide to attack the two Eds with even more venom in the run up to the election
If the Ukip supporters realise that voting Labour means the will be less chance of a Euro referendum
If the leadership polls eventually align with the headline figures like they did in Scotland with Iain Gray
.....keep em coming.0 -
"Number of people in the UK smashes through 64million after one of the biggest population increases in the whole of Europe
* Population grows by 400,000, the same as a city the size of Bristol
* 0.63% rise in 12 months is one of the highest in all of the European Union
* Biggest driver was births outstripping deaths, accounting for 212,000
* 183,400 more immigrants arrived than emigrants left in year to June 2013"
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2670751/Number-people-UK-smashes-64million-one-biggest-population-increases-Europe.html0 -
The only real growth (imo) comes from innovation and productivity and the biggest incentive for innovation and productivity comes from a labour shortage.Speedy said:
I made an economic simulation of what would happen if you have a country with closed borders.surbiton said:
http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefingPaper/document/250MrJones said:
I'm not in the mood to argue with this nonsense.surbiton said:
9 out of 10 new jobs went to people from Overseas. Wasn't Migration Watch saying that. Were they joking ?MrJones said:
Jokesurbiton said:@Mr Jones
"The ONS said the UK population had increased by about five million since 2001"
And the infrastructure hasn't been increased at all so it's hard to see how the political class can say there's been no negative consequences with a straight face (unless they're a pack of blank blanks of course in which case they could say anything with a straight face).
--------------------------
We got at least a couple of million taxpayers to fund our ever growing elderly population.
The Tories crow about the highest levels of employment in history. The increase are the immigrants , you know.
The negative consequences of unlimited mass immigration which the media and political class have been lying about for 14 years started off small and concentrated in a few areas. 14 years and millions of people later that is increasingly not the case.
In a nutshell, the political class need new lies.
"Since 2000, employment of non-UK born workers aged 16 and over has increased by 2.2 million to over 4.3 million. Yet in this same period, employment of UK born workers has increased by just 574,000"
If its economy was growing and employment rose faster than population growth then unemployment would fall to almost 0% increasing inflation and increasing investment for productivity due to lack of workers, also the growth of the local population would increase due to the increased demand and wages for people (like the post war boom).
If its economy was declining and employment didn't rise faster than population growth then the surplus workers will reduce inflation and decreasing investment for productivity, resulting into lower or even declining natural population growth from declining wages until the surplus workforce dies off (a very slow malthusian crisis).
In this perspective open borders at times of economic growth lowers inflation but also lowers productivity, investment and the local population growth rates.
The lack of people is a great incentive to replace them with machines.
0 -
Martin Schulz, the German social democrat and speaker of the European parliament who has played a central role in pushing Juncker to be the next president of the European commission, said: "Let's be honest, [Cameron's] is not a normal political attitude. It's up to him whether he wants to marginalise himself."
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/26/david-cameron-warns-eu-over-jean-claude-juncker
Another Europhile scumbag. "Vote the way we tell you or we'll marginalise you."0 -
Ah, the sunny uplands Mr Starter.......they are so close, I can taste them.TwistedFireStopper said:
You're as delusional as the Tories, in your belief that the leader of your chosen political party is the one to lead us to the sunny uplands. The sooner you realise that they're not much different from each other, the happier you'll be.bigjohnowls said:
LESS THAN 10.5 months to go swingback / crossover currently in reverse. Must be worrying for PB Tories that Ed is CRAP and yet the Tories have fallen further behind Lab in June compared to maySquareRoot said:
Hmmm , such comments are likely to come and bite you in the arse. Ed is crap. Hopeless as a leader, God forbid he ever becomes PM. That's why Ed Balls and his cabal are plotting against him.....bigjohnowls said:Tonights You Gov LAB 354 CON 252 LD 18 OTHERS 26 (UKPR)
Ed is crap is PM Every poll in June has Ed is crap is PM0 -
Surprising that the growth rate is at its lowest in 10 years!AndyJS said:"Number of people in the UK smashes through 64million after one of the biggest population increases in the whole of Europe
* Population grows by 400,000, the same as a city the size of Bristol
* 0.63% rise in 12 months is one of the highest in all of the European Union
* Biggest driver was births outstripping deaths, accounting for 212,000
* 183,400 more immigrants arrived than emigrants left in year to June 2013"
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2670751/Number-people-UK-smashes-64million-one-biggest-population-increases-Europe.html0 -
I've never really understood the argument that polling in the mid-30's is a tremendous result for Labour, this far from an election. Neil Kinnock was doing better in 1986.compouter2 said:
Sleazy Broken Basil on the slide....into depression.MikeL said:YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead remains five points: CON 33%, LAB 38%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%
First poll fully post Coulson verdict: Con +1, Lab +1.
Ed is crap = Labour still in the lead.
Never forget the PB Hodges 3 days of polling summer.
0 -
If Kojak could sing?0
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Its getting quite close for this crossover and swingback to occur, the deadline is October if there is no crossover or swingback by then, its curtains for Cameron.compouter2 said:
Sleazy Broken Basil on the slide....into depression.MikeL said:YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead remains five points: CON 33%, LAB 38%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%
First poll fully post Coulson verdict: Con +1, Lab +1.
Ed is crap = Labour still in the lead.
Never forget the PB Hodges 3 days of polling summer.
For those looking for a 1987 repeat, the Tories didn't start to rise until Aug.1986, 10 months before the election.
For those looking for a repeat of 1992, its not too late to ditch Cameron, the Tories level pegged with Labour in Nov.1990 and again in Sept 1991, 18 and 7 months before the election.0 -
Surely not? According to the migration fundamentalists, Brits are lazy slobs, whose benefits are paid for by the supermen who come from abroad.Socrates said:Sorry, I was looking at country of birth. It's actually worse than that by nationality for those lagging groups. Only 58% of sub-Saharan Africans work (excluding South Africa), and only 45% of Pakistanis and Bangladeshis in the UK work. This compares to 73% of Brits.
0 -
If a man could be two places at one time
He could be committing voter fraud0 -
Or a big war.MrJones said:
The only real growth (imo) comes from innovation and productivity and the biggest incentive for innovation and productivity comes from a labour shortage.Speedy said:
I made an economic simulation of what would happen if you have a country with closed borders.surbiton said:
http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefingPaper/document/250MrJones said:
I'm not in the mood to argue with this nonsense.surbiton said:
9 out of 10 new jobs went to people from Overseas. Wasn't Migration Watch saying that. Were they joking ?MrJones said:
Jokesurbiton said:@Mr Jones
"The ONS said the UK population had increased by about five million since 2001"
And the infrastructure hasn't been increased at all so it's hard to see how the political class can say there's been no negative consequences with a straight face (unless they're a pack of blank blanks of course in which case they could say anything with a straight face).
--------------------------
We got at least a couple of million taxpayers to fund our ever growing elderly population.
The Tories crow about the highest levels of employment in history. The increase are the immigrants , you know.
The negative consequences of unlimited mass immigration which the media and political class have been lying about for 14 years started off small and concentrated in a few areas. 14 years and millions of people later that is increasingly not the case.
In a nutshell, the political class need new lies.
"Since 2000, employment of non-UK born workers aged 16 and over has increased by 2.2 million to over 4.3 million. Yet in this same period, employment of UK born workers has increased by just 574,000"
If its economy was growing and employment rose faster than population growth then unemployment would fall to almost 0% increasing inflation and increasing investment for productivity due to lack of workers, also the growth of the local population would increase due to the increased demand and wages for people (like the post war boom).
If its economy was declining and employment didn't rise faster than population growth then the surplus workers will reduce inflation and decreasing investment for productivity, resulting into lower or even declining natural population growth from declining wages until the surplus workforce dies off (a very slow malthusian crisis).
In this perspective open borders at times of economic growth lowers inflation but also lowers productivity, investment and the local population growth rates.
The lack of people is a great incentive to replace them with machines.0 -
bigjohnowls We must hope ARSE is correct, I would agree that Cameron was an idiot to oppose AV, losing both UKIP preferences and those of Cleggite LDs and effectively depriving him of any chance of a majority. The best he can now hope for is a coalition. While an effective looking PM, he is too often a hopeless political tactician0
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So immigrants from other EU countries are more likely to work that Brits whilst immigrants from outside the EU are less likely to work than Brits?
Or is that too simple?0 -
New definition of mid 30s Lab 37/38 is mid thirties
Con on 32/33 is mid thirties
CRRROOOSSSOOOOVVVVVEEEERRRRR0 -
Polls this time in 1986Sean_F said:
I've never really understood the argument that polling in the mid-30's is a tremendous result for Labour, this far from an election. Neil Kinnock was doing better in 1986.compouter2 said:
Sleazy Broken Basil on the slide....into depression.MikeL said:YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead remains five points: CON 33%, LAB 38%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%
First poll fully post Coulson verdict: Con +1, Lab +1.
Ed is crap = Labour still in the lead.
Never forget the PB Hodges 3 days of polling summer.
MORI poll 24/06/1986 CON 34, LAB 40, SDP/LIB 23 not much different
Or if 10.5 months before the election
MORI poll 19/08/1986 CON 37, LAB 37, SDP/LID 23, its worse for Labour than today.0 -
Labour's performance has been piss-poor, in each round of elections since 2010.Speedy said:
Its getting quite close for this crossover and swingback to occur, the deadline is October if there is no crossover or swingback by then, its curtains for Cameron.compouter2 said:
Sleazy Broken Basil on the slide....into depression.MikeL said:YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead remains five points: CON 33%, LAB 38%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%
First poll fully post Coulson verdict: Con +1, Lab +1.
Ed is crap = Labour still in the lead.
Never forget the PB Hodges 3 days of polling summer.
For those looking for a 1987 repeat, the Tories didn't start to rise until Aug.1986, 10 months before the election.
For those looking for a repeat of 1992, its not too late to ditch Cameron, the Tories level pegged with Labour in Nov.1990 and again in Sept 1991, 18 and 7 months before the election.
That won't change in 2015.
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If my auntie had Gideons she would be my uncle.0
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The tories are running out of time.Sean_F said:
Labour's performance has been piss-poor, in each round of elections since 2010.Speedy said:
Its getting quite close for this crossover and swingback to occur, the deadline is October if there is no crossover or swingback by then, its curtains for Cameron.compouter2 said:
Sleazy Broken Basil on the slide....into depression.MikeL said:YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead remains five points: CON 33%, LAB 38%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%
First poll fully post Coulson verdict: Con +1, Lab +1.
Ed is crap = Labour still in the lead.
Never forget the PB Hodges 3 days of polling summer.
For those looking for a 1987 repeat, the Tories didn't start to rise until Aug.1986, 10 months before the election.
For those looking for a repeat of 1992, its not too late to ditch Cameron, the Tories level pegged with Labour in Nov.1990 and again in Sept 1991, 18 and 7 months before the election.
That won't change in 2015.
It's conference season or bust.
0 -
Now we need to figure out whether it is worse for foreigners to steal our jobs or to bludge our dole! Then we could figure out whether EU or non EU migrants are better.ManchesterKurt said:
So immigrants from other EU countries are more likely to work that Brits whilst immigrants from outside the EU are less likely to work than Brits?
Or is that too simple?0 -
Outside of his native land, there wasn't a single country in the EU where more than half the public had even heard of Juncker:
http://www.aecr.eu/media/AECRAMR-European-election-poll.pdf (page 16).
Only 8% could name him EU-wide. This is the supposed democratic legitimacy that means the UK gets completely ignored in the decision.
What a joke the EU is. We really are better off out. How long will it take clowns like Cameron to realise it?0 -
Speedy Maggie was well behind Kinnock when she was dumped in 1990, but she led him in 1987. Cameron has a clear lead over Miliband, that is why, coupled with the Tories economic lead, I think he will stay in No 100
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For what it is worth, I am one of the non-EU immigrants that stole one of 'your' jobs.foxinsoxuk said:
Now we need to figure out whether it is worse for foreigners to steal our jobs or to bludge our dole! Then we could figure out whether EU or non EU migrants are better.
ManchesterKurt said:So immigrants from other EU countries are more likely to work that Brits whilst immigrants from outside the EU are less likely to work than Brits?
Or is that too simple?0 -
If there's anyone in Lancashire that wants to attend the funeral of a war hero that has no family left:
http://i.imgur.com/pf3pK1X.jpg0 -
I think JackW is overestimating swingback but he does have a good track record in GE2010 his projection was very closeHYUFD said:bigjohnowls We must hope ARSE is correct
My BJESUS prediction GE2015 - released at 8.50 every Tuesday till 5/5/15
LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 26 (Ed is crap is PM)
BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
Using current polling adjusted for 309 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer
Perhaps i am underestimating any swingback but I think Lab will do really well in LAB/LD fights
We shall see who calls this right we are in for an interesting 10 months
0 -
The Barnet council state is wrong. When Labour win these 3 seats it will be con 32 Lab 30 LD 1. Con Majority of 10
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I keep hoping Fellaini is going to do something spectacular so United can get a reasonable percentage of the money that Moyes wasted on him back. Nothing so far but there is 5 minutes left.0
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A little bit too simple. People from the A8 are more likely to work than Brits. People from older EU members are about similar to Brits. We don't have data on Romania/Bulgaria yet. People from the USA, South Africa and India are pretty similar to Brits. People from the rest of Africa are a lot less likely. People from Pakistan and Bangladesh even less likely.ManchesterKurt said:So immigrants from other EU countries are more likely to work that Brits whilst immigrants from outside the EU are less likely to work than Brits?
Or is that too simple?0 -
Dear me, that is so embarrassingly patheticcompouter2 said:The PB Hodge polling If's for a Tory government:
If the economy continues to grow
If wages continually outstrip inflation
If Ukip returns to the Tories
If Lib Dems return home
If Ukip only take off the Tories in safe Tory areas
If Labour voters don't vote tactically in Lib Dem seats
If Toby gets his way and Ukip and Tory voters vote tactically
If Ukip goes to 5%
If the Lib Dems head back towards 20%
If Ed remains crap
If house prices soar
If Scotland votes for independence
If Labours campaign is crap
If Lynton gets his finger out
If unemployment keeps falling
If Cameron goes *ahem* cast iron on the in/out referendum
If the Tory MP's of the right stop their suicide mission
If the unions pull the plug on Labours money so they cannot fund a campaign
If there is a breakout of war
If the falling Tory membership still manages to campaign hard
If only they had got the boundary changes through
If there is swingback
If Ashcrofts marginal polling is wrong
If the Tory vote was spread out more like Labours and not building up in seats that are safe
If Ed is found eating kittens or some other scandal
If the Lib Dems get rid of Nick Clegg and replace him with someone more left wing
If Ukip don't stand against Euro-sceptic Tory MP's
If the focus goes back onto the two Ed's
If Labours manifesto is torn apart by the press
If the country sees sense
If the right wing voters hold their nose about Cameron and vote Tory
If the voters realise what a fantastic job the coalition has been doing
If the raising of the minimum wage will sway floating voters toffs do have hearts
If Labour polling figures are being exaggerated
If the electoral bias in FPTP is not as big as it has been historically
If the press decide to attack the two Eds with even more venom in the run up to the election
If the Ukip supporters realise that voting Labour means the will be less chance of a Euro referendum
If the leadership polls eventually align with the headline figures like they did in Scotland with Iain Gray
.....keep em coming.0 -
I haven't given it much thought but in the end isn't that mostly just debt-based consumption?HurstLlama said:
Or a big war.MrJones said:
The only real growth (imo) comes from innovation and productivity and the biggest incentive for innovation and productivity comes from a labour shortage.
Although I guess if you blow everything up then you'll likely get a productivity boost if you rebuild everything new afterwards (although you could do that without a war - get the RAF (if there was one) to blow up some random industry once a year and then rebuild it).
A war creates a labour shortage afterwards as well i guess so that would spur innovation.
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FWIW , a by election result from an election held on Tuesday
Littlehampton TC River ward Lib Dem gain from Conservative
LD 263 Lab 220 Con 180 UKIP 178
A previous by election in the ward in Dec 2012 was also a Lib Dem gain from Conservative
River ward used to be a safe Labour ward and their candidate in this by election was their PPC for the Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Parliamentary seat .0 -
A poll.Speedy said:
Polls this time in 1986Sean_F said:
I've never really understood the argument that polling in the mid-30's is a tremendous result for Labour, this far from an election. Neil Kinnock was doing better in 1986.compouter2 said:
Sleazy Broken Basil on the slide....into depression.MikeL said:YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead remains five points: CON 33%, LAB 38%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%
First poll fully post Coulson verdict: Con +1, Lab +1.
Ed is crap = Labour still in the lead.
Never forget the PB Hodges 3 days of polling summer.
MORI poll 24/06/1986 CON 34, LAB 40, SDP/LIB 23 not much different
Or if 10.5 months before the election
MORI poll 19/08/1986 CON 37, LAB 37, SDP/LID 23, its worse for Labour than today.
Marplan, the forerunner to ICM had Labour 6-12% ahead. In the event, the Conservatives finished 11% ahead. I don't think anyone expects such a turnaround this time, but it's hugely unwise to proclaim victory on the basis of polls, this far out, when actual election results are really rather weak.
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May 12 2014 - The PB Hodges day/night of pure orgasm.
Two polls showing crossover and a Euro poll showing the Tory Party in the lead.
One chief contributor stated:
"Tories are 28/1 with Bet365 to win the most votes in the Euros.
Won't last, fill yer boots"
Wonder how many boots were filled as well as polling tissues that night?0 -
My comment was intended as tongue in cheek! I too am of immigrant stock...ManchesterKurt said:
For what it is worth, I am one of the non-EU immigrants that stole one of 'your' jobs.
foxinsoxuk said:Now we need to figure out whether it is worse for foreigners to steal our jobs or to bludge our dole! Then we could figure out whether EU or non EU migrants are better.
ManchesterKurt said:So immigrants from other EU countries are more likely to work that Brits whilst immigrants from outside the EU are less likely to work than Brits?
Or is that too simple?0 -
Paul Nuttal - very effective. Ukip starting to pull together one or two decent TV performers now...0
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35% is mid-thirties. That's Labour's current average rating.bigjohnowls said:New definition of mid 30s Lab 37/38 is mid thirties
Con on 32/33 is mid thirties
CRRROOOSSSOOOOVVVVVEEEERRRRR0 -
Prescott on song. On his day, a plain-speaking, strong performer.0
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I think there is virtually no chance of Labour winning an overall majority, or coming first in vote share, in 2015.bigjohnowls said:
I think JackW is overestimating swingback but he does have a good track record in GE2010 his projection was very closeHYUFD said:bigjohnowls We must hope ARSE is correct
My BJESUS prediction GE2015 - released at 8.50 every Tuesday till 5/5/15
LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 26 (Ed is crap is PM)
BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
Using current polling adjusted for 309 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer
Perhaps i am underestimating any swingback but I think Lab will do really well in LAB/LD fights
We shall see who calls this right we are in for an interesting 10 months
There is a fair chance of Labour gaining most seats.
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Two out of the last ten have been 35% or below. If you are looking at UKPR, it only gets updated now and again.Sean_F said:
35% is mid-thirties. That's Labour's current average rating.bigjohnowls said:New definition of mid 30s Lab 37/38 is mid thirties
Con on 32/33 is mid thirties
CRRROOOSSSOOOOVVVVVEEEERRRRR0 -
compouter2 said:
May 12 2014 - The PB Hodges day/night of pure orgasm.
Two polls showing crossover and a Euro poll showing the Tory Party in the lead.
One chief contributor stated:
"Tories are 28/1 with Bet365 to win the most votes in the Euros.
Won't last, fill yer boots"
Wonder how many boots were filled as well as polling tissues that night?
Anyone with betting nous filled their boots at 28s and laid it off at 7/1 on Betfair
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Those that did not lay it off are now without boots.isam said:compouter2 said:May 12 2014 - The PB Hodges day/night of pure orgasm.
Two polls showing crossover and a Euro poll showing the Tory Party in the lead.
One chief contributor stated:
"Tories are 28/1 with Bet365 to win the most votes in the Euros.
Won't last, fill yer boots"
Wonder how many boots were filled as well as polling tissues that night?
Anyone with betting nous filled their boots at 28s and laid it off at 7/1 on Betfair0 -
Glad to see you 'pouter.compouter2 said:If my auntie had Gideons she would be my uncle.
What made them let you out for the night?
I thought you were waiting in your cell on Savile Row for the second coming of Jimmy.0 -
Soubry faux outrage as predicted here yesterday
1.01 on Betfair I'd have thought
Poor people of Broxtowe, what chance have they got?0 -
The last government (leftist) in Norway formed an expert group of economists that were tasked to calculate the benefits and cost with immigration, and they concluded that the only group that was beneficial to Norway were young Northern Europeans. Everybody else was a clear net drain, and if you included the natural resources of Norway being diluted with more “Norwegians”, the Northern Europeans were a net drain as well.
http://www.regjeringen.no/en/dep/bld/BLD-arbeider-for-at/styrer-rad-og-utvalg/the-welfare-and-migration-committee.html?id=577139
Can't wait to see how the infrastructure copes, how much of the countryside survives, how little wages grow and how high house prices go if current immigration trends continue. What an age to live in.0 -
Evening Avery, your history of the poor end of beasting and bending over for your seniors should know more about Savillesque adventures. Nice to see the Tories in the lead in the polls. Tory election win nailed on!AveryLP said:
Glad to see you 'pouter.compouter2 said:If my auntie had Gideons she would be my uncle.
What made them let you out for the night?
I thought you were waiting in your cell on Savile Row for the second coming of Jimmy.0 -
Superb, tonight, you prove that you don't understand anything about polling or betting.compouter2 said:May 12 2014 - The PB Hodges day/night of pure orgasm.
Two polls showing crossover and a Euro poll showing the Tory Party in the lead.
One chief contributor stated:
"Tories are 28/1 with Bet365 to win the most votes in the Euros.
Won't last, fill yer boots"
Wonder how many boots were filled as well as polling tissues that night?
That 28/1 tip was an excellent trading bet, which ultimately yielded a profit, as isam notes below, though as Mike likes to remind me, he backed the Tories at 56/1.
Obviously, I doff my cap to the poster who said there wouldn't be any crossover polls before the General Election, you truly are a visionary.0 -
Always happy to keep the PB Hodges smiling.TheScreamingEagles said:
Superb, tonight, you prove that you don't understand anything about polling or betting.compouter2 said:May 12 2014 - The PB Hodges day/night of pure orgasm.
Two polls showing crossover and a Euro poll showing the Tory Party in the lead.
One chief contributor stated:
"Tories are 28/1 with Bet365 to win the most votes in the Euros.
Won't last, fill yer boots"
Wonder how many boots were filled as well as polling tissues that night?
That 28/1 tip was an excellent trading bet, which ultimately yielded a profit, as isam notes below, though as Mike likes to remind me, he backed the Tories at 56/1.
Obviously, I doff my cap to the poster who said there wouldn't be any crossover polls before the General Election, you truly are a visionary.0 -
Mr. Jones, I was thinking particularly of innovation. Consider the leaps and bounds in the application of science into technology that occurred during both WW1 and WW2. Pick any field and you'll find it jumped ahead during both conflicts. Even my own best loved subject, number theory, which Godfrey Hardy was celebrating as having no practical purpose in the inter-war years, found role in cryptology and computing during WW2.MrJones said:
I haven't given it much thought but in the end isn't that mostly just debt-based consumption?HurstLlama said:
Or a big war.MrJones said:
The only real growth (imo) comes from innovation and productivity and the biggest incentive for innovation and productivity comes from a labour shortage.
Although I guess if you blow everything up then you'll likely get a productivity boost if you rebuild everything new afterwards (although you could do that without a war - get the RAF (if there was one) to blow up some random industry once a year and then rebuild it).
A war creates a labour shortage afterwards as well i guess so that would spur innovation.
Big wars may not advance pure science too much but they accelerate innovation because in such wars, for the West at least, its a case of innovate or die. Didn't someone say necessity is the mother of invention.0 -
It never ceases to amaze me that people, including some who are apparently grown-ups, don't ask themselves the most basic of questions when looking at opinion polls: how useful are they at predicting the final result?
The answer, obviously, is that, amongst other things, it depends how long before the election the poll is taken. Polls a week before an election are likely to be pretty good on average. Polls four and a half years before an election: entirely useless.
So: how useful are polls 10 months before an election, and in what direction are they likely to change?
Luckily, an Oxford professor has done the research:
http://users.ox.ac.uk/~nuff0084/ge15forecast/
The error bars (95% confidence) on Con vote share are still plus or minus 7.8%.
In plain English: the current polls probably give only a very rough estimate of the final result.0 -
bigjohnowls Labour will pick up almost all their LD targets I would agree, regardless of who wins the election0
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Always cautious on these statistics, often they are distorted by not controlling for working age, lots of native children and very elderly, and of course it depends on the work they are doing. Additional issue of less recent immigrant communities being put in with British nationals with their own high unemployment rates.Socrates said:
A little bit too simple. People from the A8 are more likely to work than Brits. People from older EU members are about similar to Brits. We don't have data on Romania/Bulgaria yet. People from the USA, South Africa and India are pretty similar to Brits. People from the rest of Africa are a lot less likely. People from Pakistan and Bangladesh even less likely.ManchesterKurt said:So immigrants from other EU countries are more likely to work that Brits whilst immigrants from outside the EU are less likely to work than Brits?
Or is that too simple?
Unfortunately recently productivity has slowed as instead of innovating and injecting capital firms have relied on cheap foreign labour to expand production. Perhaps our pro immigration friends will start lobbying for repealing the child labour laws, or anti slavery acts?
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No its not the mean median and modal labour scores are all in excess of 35.Sean_F said:
35% is mid-thirties. That's Labour's current average rating.bigjohnowls said:New definition of mid 30s Lab 37/38 is mid thirties
Con on 32/33 is mid thirties
CRRROOOSSSOOOOVVVVVEEEERRRRR
Can you provide your workings so i can disprove them0 -
Ann Coulter off her rocks again - growing American interest in soccer a symbol of US decline
'If more "Americans" are watching soccer today, it's only because of the demographic switch effected by Teddy Kennedy's 1965 immigration law. I promise you: No American whose great-grandfather was born here is watching soccer. One can only hope that, in addition to learning English, these new Americans will drop their soccer fetish with time.
I've held off on writing about soccer for a decade — or about the length of the average soccer game — so as not to offend anyone. But enough is enough. Any growing interest in soccer can only be a sign of the nation's moral decay.'
http://www.clarionledger.com/story/opinion/columnists/2014/06/25/coulter-growing-interest-soccer-sign-nations-moral-decay/11372137/0 -
Early summer polls are most unreliable, 'pouter.compouter2 said:
Evening Avery, your history of the poor end of beasting and bending over for your seniors should know more about Savillesque adventures. Nice to see the Tories in the lead in the polls. Tory election win nailed on!AveryLP said:
Glad to see you 'pouter.compouter2 said:If my auntie had Gideons she would be my uncle.
What made them let you out for the night?
I thought you were waiting in your cell on Savile Row for the second coming of Jimmy.
True tories don't complete polling surveys during the season. They are far too busy at Ascot, Wimbledon, Henley and even, god forsake us, Royal Liverpool.
You will have to wait until the end of Glorious Goodwood before the polls start to give a balanced reading of voting intention.
0 -
People who believe this could make a killing on Betfair.Richard_Nabavi said:It never ceases to amaze me that people, including some who are apparently grown-ups, don't ask themselves the most basic of questions when looking at opinion polls: how useful are they at predicting the final result?
The answer, obviously, is that, amongst other things, it depends how long before the election the poll is taken. Polls a week before an election are likely to be pretty good on average. Polls four and a half years before an election: entirely useless.
So: how useful are polls 10 months before an election, and in what direction are they likely to change?
Luckily, an Oxford professor has done the research:
http://users.ox.ac.uk/~nuff0084/ge15forecast/
The error bars (95% confidence) on Con vote share are still plus or minus 7.8%.
In plain English: the current polls probably give only a very rough estimate of the final result.
As for me if Labour dont get most seats I fear Mrs BJO will demand a divorce such wiil be my scale of losses.
No lose situation really.0 -
In talking about polls and crossover should people not remember that the tories won a by-election recently. Won it well - whereas at a similar time labour were losing Crewe and Nantwich.
The electorate with an opportunity to send a real MP to Westminser as opposed to sending a message chose to send a Conservative MP.0 -
Good night. No reply from mr average so i am off0
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But the UK isn't being ignored. It's stated its disapproval of Juncker, it will vote against him, and has attempted to get other countries to vote likewise. At the end of the day there will be a vote in the European Council and if Juncker gets a qualified majority, he wins, and if he doesn't, he won't. The UK isn't being ignored. It's being outvoted.Socrates said:Only 8% could name him [Juncker] EU-wide. This is the supposed democratic legitimacy that means the UK gets completely ignored in the decision.
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Oh Christ, another Avery polling prediction. I dare not tell Basil.AveryLP said:
Early summer polls are most unreliable, 'pouter.compouter2 said:
Evening Avery, your history of the poor end of beasting and bending over for your seniors should know more about Savillesque adventures. Nice to see the Tories in the lead in the polls. Tory election win nailed on!AveryLP said:
Glad to see you 'pouter.compouter2 said:If my auntie had Gideons she would be my uncle.
What made them let you out for the night?
I thought you were waiting in your cell on Savile Row for the second coming of Jimmy.
True tories don't complete polling surveys during the season. They are far too busy at Ascot, Wimbledon, Henley and even, god forsake us, Royal Liverpool.
You will have to wait until the end of Glorious Goodwood before the polls start to give a balanced reading of voting intention.0
