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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Deferred Elections postponed from May 22nd : June 26th 2014
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Deferred Elections postponed from May 22nd : June 26th 2014
Swanwick on Amber Valley (Conservative WIN in 2010)
Result of council at last election (2014): Labour 24, Conservatives 21 (Labour overall majority of 3)
Result of ward at last election (2010): Conservative 1,610 (50%), Labour 983 (31%), Liberal Democrats 599 (19%) Conservative majority of 627 (19%)
Candidates duly nominated:
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Cheers, Mr. Hayfield.
"The ONS said the UK population had increased by about five million since 2001"
And the infrastructure hasn't been increased at all so it's hard to see how the political class can say there's been no negative consequences with a straight face (unless they're a pack of blank blanks of course in which case they could say anything with a straight face).
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We got at least a couple of million taxpayers to fund our ever growing elderly population.
The Tories crow about the highest levels of employment in history. The increase are the immigrants , you know.
You gov if you want to.
The lady's not for govving.
From the June 2014 ONS Labour Market Statistics bulletin;
Looking at the estimates by nationality, between January to March 2013 and January to March 2014:
• the number of UK nationals working in the UK increased by 563,000 to reach 27.57 million, and
• the number of non-UK nationals working in the UK increased by 178,000 to reach 2.77 million.
The number of people in work who were non-UK born is higher than those who were non-UK nationals as some people born abroad are UK nationals. For January to March 2014, 4.55 million people in work were born abroad, 1.78 million higher than the number of non-UK nationals in work. Looking at the estimates by country of birth, between January to March 2013 and January to March 2014:
• the number of UK born people working in the UK increased by 447,000 to reach 25.77 million, and
• the number of non-UK born people working in the UK increased by 292,000 to reach 4.55 million.
Sharpen your teeth, Surby!
The negative consequences of unlimited mass immigration which the media and political class have been lying about for 14 years started off small and concentrated in a few areas. 14 years and millions of people later that is increasingly not the case.
In a nutshell, the political class need new lies.
http://joesaward.wordpress.com/2014/06/26/the-world-council-meets/
Is this the rule now? We get one bloody stupid rule every year? This year: double points in Abu Dhabi. Next year: a needless change to decrease safety. Because if there's one thing a sport that involves moving at 200mph needs, it's less safety.
"Since 2000, employment of non-UK born workers aged 16 and over has increased by 2.2 million to over 4.3 million. Yet in this same period, employment of UK born workers has increased by just 574,000"
First poll fully post Coulson verdict: Con +1, Lab +1.
Ed is crap is PM Every poll in June has Ed is crap is PM
If its economy was growing and employment rose faster than population growth then unemployment would fall to almost 0% increasing inflation and increasing investment for productivity due to lack of workers, also the growth of the local population would increase due to the increased demand and wages for people (like the post war boom).
If its economy was declining and employment didn't rise faster than population growth then the surplus workers will reduce inflation and decreasing investment for productivity, resulting into lower or even declining natural population growth from declining wages until the surplus workforce dies off (a very slow malthusian crisis).
In this perspective open borders at times of economic growth lowers inflation but also lowers productivity, investment and the local population growth rates.
The lack of people is a great incentive to replace them with machines.
Ed is crap = Labour still in the lead.
Never forget the PB Hodges 3 days of polling summer.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10929427/Fears-over-Jean-Claude-Junckers-drinking.html
http://countingdownto.com/countdown/134707
If the economy continues to grow
If wages continually outstrip inflation
If Ukip returns to the Tories
If Lib Dems return home
If Ukip only take off the Tories in safe Tory areas
If Labour voters don't vote tactically in Lib Dem seats
If Toby gets his way and Ukip and Tory voters vote tactically
If Ukip goes to 5%
If the Lib Dems head back towards 20%
If Ed remains crap
If house prices soar
If Scotland votes for independence
If Labours campaign is crap
If Lynton gets his finger out
If unemployment keeps falling
If Cameron goes *ahem* cast iron on the in/out referendum
If the Tory MP's of the right stop their suicide mission
If the unions pull the plug on Labours money so they cannot fund a campaign
If there is a breakout of war
If the falling Tory membership still manages to campaign hard
If only they had got the boundary changes through
If there is swingback
If Ashcrofts marginal polling is wrong
If the Tory vote was spread out more like Labours and not building up in seats that are safe
If Ed is found eating kittens or some other scandal
If the Lib Dems get rid of Nick Clegg and replace him with someone more left wing
If Ukip don't stand against Euro-sceptic Tory MP's
If the focus goes back onto the two Ed's
If Labours manifesto is torn apart by the press
If the country sees sense
If the right wing voters hold their nose about Cameron and vote Tory
If the voters realise what a fantastic job the coalition has been doing
If the raising of the minimum wage will sway floating voters toffs do have hearts
If Labour polling figures are being exaggerated
If the electoral bias in FPTP is not as big as it has been historically
If the press decide to attack the two Eds with even more venom in the run up to the election
If the Ukip supporters realise that voting Labour means the will be less chance of a Euro referendum
If the leadership polls eventually align with the headline figures like they did in Scotland with Iain Gray
.....keep em coming.
* Population grows by 400,000, the same as a city the size of Bristol
* 0.63% rise in 12 months is one of the highest in all of the European Union
* Biggest driver was births outstripping deaths, accounting for 212,000
* 183,400 more immigrants arrived than emigrants left in year to June 2013"
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2670751/Number-people-UK-smashes-64million-one-biggest-population-increases-Europe.html
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/26/david-cameron-warns-eu-over-jean-claude-juncker
Another Europhile scumbag. "Vote the way we tell you or we'll marginalise you."
For those looking for a 1987 repeat, the Tories didn't start to rise until Aug.1986, 10 months before the election.
For those looking for a repeat of 1992, its not too late to ditch Cameron, the Tories level pegged with Labour in Nov.1990 and again in Sept 1991, 18 and 7 months before the election.
He could be committing voter fraud
Or is that too simple?
Con on 32/33 is mid thirties
CRRROOOSSSOOOOVVVVVEEEERRRRR
MORI poll 24/06/1986 CON 34, LAB 40, SDP/LIB 23 not much different
Or if 10.5 months before the election
MORI poll 19/08/1986 CON 37, LAB 37, SDP/LID 23, its worse for Labour than today.
That won't change in 2015.
It's conference season or bust.
http://www.aecr.eu/media/AECRAMR-European-election-poll.pdf (page 16).
Only 8% could name him EU-wide. This is the supposed democratic legitimacy that means the UK gets completely ignored in the decision.
What a joke the EU is. We really are better off out. How long will it take clowns like Cameron to realise it?
http://i.imgur.com/pf3pK1X.jpg
My BJESUS prediction GE2015 - released at 8.50 every Tuesday till 5/5/15
LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 26 (Ed is crap is PM)
BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
Using current polling adjusted for 309 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer
Perhaps i am underestimating any swingback but I think Lab will do really well in LAB/LD fights
We shall see who calls this right we are in for an interesting 10 months
Although I guess if you blow everything up then you'll likely get a productivity boost if you rebuild everything new afterwards (although you could do that without a war - get the RAF (if there was one) to blow up some random industry once a year and then rebuild it).
A war creates a labour shortage afterwards as well i guess so that would spur innovation.
Littlehampton TC River ward Lib Dem gain from Conservative
LD 263 Lab 220 Con 180 UKIP 178
A previous by election in the ward in Dec 2012 was also a Lib Dem gain from Conservative
River ward used to be a safe Labour ward and their candidate in this by election was their PPC for the Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Parliamentary seat .
Marplan, the forerunner to ICM had Labour 6-12% ahead. In the event, the Conservatives finished 11% ahead. I don't think anyone expects such a turnaround this time, but it's hugely unwise to proclaim victory on the basis of polls, this far out, when actual election results are really rather weak.
Two polls showing crossover and a Euro poll showing the Tory Party in the lead.
One chief contributor stated:
"Tories are 28/1 with Bet365 to win the most votes in the Euros.
Won't last, fill yer boots"
Wonder how many boots were filled as well as polling tissues that night?
There is a fair chance of Labour gaining most seats.
Anyone with betting nous filled their boots at 28s and laid it off at 7/1 on Betfair
What made them let you out for the night?
I thought you were waiting in your cell on Savile Row for the second coming of Jimmy.
1.01 on Betfair I'd have thought
Poor people of Broxtowe, what chance have they got?
http://www.regjeringen.no/en/dep/bld/BLD-arbeider-for-at/styrer-rad-og-utvalg/the-welfare-and-migration-committee.html?id=577139
Can't wait to see how the infrastructure copes, how much of the countryside survives, how little wages grow and how high house prices go if current immigration trends continue. What an age to live in.
That 28/1 tip was an excellent trading bet, which ultimately yielded a profit, as isam notes below, though as Mike likes to remind me, he backed the Tories at 56/1.
Obviously, I doff my cap to the poster who said there wouldn't be any crossover polls before the General Election, you truly are a visionary.
Big wars may not advance pure science too much but they accelerate innovation because in such wars, for the West at least, its a case of innovate or die. Didn't someone say necessity is the mother of invention.
The answer, obviously, is that, amongst other things, it depends how long before the election the poll is taken. Polls a week before an election are likely to be pretty good on average. Polls four and a half years before an election: entirely useless.
So: how useful are polls 10 months before an election, and in what direction are they likely to change?
Luckily, an Oxford professor has done the research:
http://users.ox.ac.uk/~nuff0084/ge15forecast/
The error bars (95% confidence) on Con vote share are still plus or minus 7.8%.
In plain English: the current polls probably give only a very rough estimate of the final result.
Unfortunately recently productivity has slowed as instead of innovating and injecting capital firms have relied on cheap foreign labour to expand production. Perhaps our pro immigration friends will start lobbying for repealing the child labour laws, or anti slavery acts?
Can you provide your workings so i can disprove them
'If more "Americans" are watching soccer today, it's only because of the demographic switch effected by Teddy Kennedy's 1965 immigration law. I promise you: No American whose great-grandfather was born here is watching soccer. One can only hope that, in addition to learning English, these new Americans will drop their soccer fetish with time.
I've held off on writing about soccer for a decade — or about the length of the average soccer game — so as not to offend anyone. But enough is enough. Any growing interest in soccer can only be a sign of the nation's moral decay.'
http://www.clarionledger.com/story/opinion/columnists/2014/06/25/coulter-growing-interest-soccer-sign-nations-moral-decay/11372137/
True tories don't complete polling surveys during the season. They are far too busy at Ascot, Wimbledon, Henley and even, god forsake us, Royal Liverpool.
You will have to wait until the end of Glorious Goodwood before the polls start to give a balanced reading of voting intention.
Ann Coulter is a troll on a massive scale. Don't indulge her.
As for me if Labour dont get most seats I fear Mrs BJO will demand a divorce such wiil be my scale of losses.
No lose situation really.
The electorate with an opportunity to send a real MP to Westminser as opposed to sending a message chose to send a Conservative MP.