What should Britain do with any excess vaccines – the Referendum divide – politicalbetting.com

kle4 said:

FF43 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

As monarchs go, my own personal favorite has always been King Zog I (and only).

Good choice! I have a soft spot for Eystein the Fart, King of Norway

Poor bastard, to have that epithet to be remembered by. Worse than Charles the Fat.

Wiki tells me there was a Tsar of Bulgaria nicknamed 'the Cabbage', but that's just weird, not insulting.

Mortimer said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1359990520307736578

Eh?

Whatever the law says, as soon as grandparents, aunts etc are vaccinated, they're going to be back hugging their relatives.

Utter madness. Ministers need to listen to Tory backbenchers on this. Return to something akin to normal after the vast majority of vulnerable are vaccinated. Normal once every adult has had a jab.

FF43 said:

Charles said:

FF43 said:

Charles said:

Stuartinromford said:

Leon said:

FF43 said:

Leon said:

It occurs to me that the relationship between the EU and the UK is, now, uniquely poisonous in the free world. Why? Because the EU is not neutral or uninterested, vis a vis the UK, it actively wants us to FAIL and SUFFER, so as to discourage any other country from quitting the EU

This is why the EU has reacted with such weird, neurotic insecurity to its relatively poor vaccine performance: because it also says Maybe the Project isn't so great after all. They can't have anyone thinking that, fuck Ireland, draw a border, stop UK vaccine imports, let's make it harder for them

This is also why the EU is being SO obstructive on everything, I can well believe the Tories have made ample mistakes, but it is obvious the EU is being deliberately arsey, wherever and whenever it can. They want Brexit Britain to be a disaster, because they are so insecure over in Brussels.

This presents quite an ongoing problem for the UK. No other democratic entity actively wants the failure of another, as far as I know, especially two such close and important neighbours as the UK and the EU

What can we do? Either we grovel and hope they grow up, or we become as hostile in return - or worse. Try and undermine them. Or we unite with America and invade them.

I think the UK is already pretty hostile to the EU. Ultimately a carefully calibrated level of crap is the solution, or at least the probable eventual outcome on my baseline expectation. But it could take years to settle. Disaster isn't in the EU's interest.

But we're not hostile in the same way. Sure some loonies want the EU to meltdown, but most Brits want to live and let live, trade freely, travel happily, they don't want Europeans to get poorer or suffer political crises or whatever

Yet that is, I believe, the attitude now of many senior EU officials and politicians towards the UK. For the sake of The Project, the UK must fail, and if that means Britons suffering, tough shit

Fuck 'em, then

Question is- does the EU actively want to put boulders in the way because we're the UK and we've left? Or is it that they have no intention of lifting a finger to help us?

The first would be bad, and an act of aggression, but the second would be "You wanted to be treated as a separate entity? Welcome to Big School." Not nice, but inevitable. Realpolitik isn't nice.

Basically, anyone who thought that "old boy dining rights" were a thing was a naive fool. And we should note that hardly anyone in Europe is either arguing for kinder treatment of the UK, or to follow our example.

I think they are asking more from the UK than other countries. May they still believe we need them (they are wrong), may be there are some who think they can punish us (they are wrong).

It shows a lack of maturity on their side that they are not looking fit a win-win. But we can wait. And in 5 years it will be different

With one exception, I don't think the EU is asking more from the UK than other countries. The UK/EU TCA is broadly similar to Canada/EU CETA but goes a bit beyond. TCA is fully Zero Tariffs and Quotas, while CETA still has both. CETA was the most comprehensive FTA struck by the EU before TCA and is a lot more ambitious than other countries' FTAs.

The one area where the EU is asking for more from the UK is in the Northern Ireland Protocol. It is not a wonderful thing, but it is there to try to deal with a real problem. It is not a case of the EU playing games. They would undoubtedly wish not to have that problem too.

Yes the EU needs the new arrangement to be worse for the UK than the one before, but that comes out simply by the EU treating the UK as a third country. Speaking as someone who knew this was going to happen before the referendum if it went Leave and that German car manufacturers etc were never going to materialise, I don't particularly blame the EU. I do somewhat blame Brexiteers for misleading the public but that's all gone now.

Point is WE need to grow up and deal with the situation we put ourselves into.

They are asking for dynamic alignment for equivalence in the City

AFAIK the EU doesn't have financial services equivalence decisions for Canada. In fact I think it revoked a previous one, presumably because Canada no longer met the dynamically changing rules.

Anabobazina said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1359990520307736578

I am set in for 2021 to be much similar to 2020, most likely with no foreign holidays.

I have already written off the prospect of going to things like gigs.

Did you go to gigs before Covid?

The idea this continues when all the vulnerable are vaccinated, and when cases are in the low hundreds per day is ridiculous.

The suppression of the virus was to protect the NHS from being overwhelmed.

Casino_Royale said:

Charles said:

Stuartinromford said:

Black_Rook said:

Stuartinromford said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

rcs1000 said:

Stuartinromford said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

ydoethur said:

Has to be said, their recent hysterical behaviour over inter alia vaccines strongly suggests the first.

No, the vaccines response was because they knew they had screwed up in a matter of the highest importance.

And, although we'll never know, I would not be shocked if there was a gap between what salesmen told the EU Commission and the contractual reality. Not a lie, of course, but incomplete truths, and enough for the EU to be justified in their pissed-offness.

(Simplest explanation of the events is that the EU simply didn't anticipate the details of the Hancock Contact, so didn't ask the right question. And AZ understandably didn't tell.)

Anyone in business knows that that is an all too common occurrence: salesperson sells vision to executive, the contract is reviewed by legal and assumes it matches what was discussed, later much unhappiness that contract and conversation are in no way aligned.

Although in this case I think it was probably more that the EU Commission was naive about the difficulties of ramping up production so fast. I bet Kate Bingham was a hell of a lot more realistic about the risk of delays, since she had good experience of other companies bringing new pharma products on stream. And, to be fair, UvdL has pretty much admitted this, once she'd stopped throwing her toys out of the pram in our direction.

I agree.

The UK's performance - and good sense - in encouraging, supporting and subsidising domestic production via long-term well priced contracts was exemplary. And it severely embarrassed the Commission, who responded very poorly.

What should now happen is that those responsible at the Commission (including the boss herself) are replaced. It was a monumental failure and those involved should pay with their jobs.

This would (hopefully) also allow a resetting of relationship.

Shame it won't happen.

Except... The EU's response has been mediocre.

Rich countries tapping Covax... That's very poor.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55932997

Poor Canada, they're in a much worse place in all of this than the EU. Various errors compounded by revenge-motivated export blocking by the Chinese, insofar as I understand it.

And the other places named downstory are Singapore and New Zealand.

Frankly, it's a shameful story with something for everyone.

Trudeau and Jacinda being beloved of a certain type of person in the uk

Justin Trudeau is the Wokiest of the Woke.

I honestly don't know how I'd cope if I had to endure in Canada under his regime of chronically embarrassing behaviour, and self-aggrandizing bullshit, laced with tremendous hypocrisy and entitlement.

I might find self-immolation more pleasant.

kle4 said:

dixiedean said:

Civilised, learned and thoughtful on both sides.

Yes, that's why I've steered well clear.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Impressive. I think we need a comment by @Leon...

https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/1359997040764325888

Mortimer said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1359990520307736578

Eh?

Whatever the law says, as soon as grandparents, aunts etc are vaccinated, they're going to be back hugging their relatives.

Utter madness. Ministers need to listen to Tory backbenchers on this. Return to something akin to normal after the vast majority of vulnerable are vaccinated. Normal once every adult has had a jab.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Impressive. I think we need a comment by @Leon...

https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/1359997040764325888

Frozen stiffies I'm guessing.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Impressive. I think we need a comment by @Leon...

https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/1359997040764325888

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Impressive. I think we need a comment by @Leon...

https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/1359997040764325888

Yes, this would appear to be in Leon's neck o' the woods. AND up his . . . er . . . alley . . .

Philip_Thompson said:

Anabobazina said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1359990520307736578

I am set in for 2021 to be much similar to 2020, most likely with no foreign holidays.

I have already written off the prospect of going to things like gigs.

Did you go to gigs before Covid?

The idea this continues when all the vulnerable are vaccinated, and when cases are in the low hundreds per day is ridiculous.

The suppression of the virus was to protect the NHS from being overwhelmed.

Cases are currently in the tens of thousands per day not the low hundreds per day and only a fraction of the vulnerable are vaccinated.

No way this will continue when cases are in the low hundreds per day and all vulnerable are vaccinated.

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

Pulpstar said:

Gallowgate said:

@Philip_Thompson currently a crime that causes "an especially serious physical or psychological effect on the victim, even if unintended" leads to a higher sentence. [a i]

Are you really suggesting a mitigating factor might be "the crime has not lead to an especially serious physical or psychological effect on the victim"? [a ii]

Also currently a crime that is committed as part of a gang leads to a higher sentence. [b i]
Are you really suggesting a "mitigating factor" might be "the crime was not committed as part of a gang"? [b ii]

It's crazy.

Your examples [ai/aii] & [bi/bii] are actually logically equivalent though

I know they are. But it just makes the "box ticking exercise" more of a mockery.

If you don't include them, people are going to be unhappy that John and Clive, members of the Skull Beater gang who inflicted GBH on Ron, a member of the Blood Skins gang, "only" got the same sentence as Timmy who punched his friend Bob, accidentally causing GBH.

And before you know it you have aggravating factors again after some populist gets elected to clamp down on Gang violence.

I've said we shouldn't have justice by populism and shouldn't pander to the Daily Mail.

Are you saying we should pander to them?

I'm saying it's inevitable because like it or not society does view some instances of the same crime as more serious than others.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Impressive. I think we need a comment by @Leon...

https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/1359997040764325888

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

kle4 said:

FF43 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

As monarchs go, my own personal favorite has always been King Zog I (and only).

Good choice! I have a soft spot for Eystein the Fart, King of Norway

Poor bastard, to have that epithet to be remembered by. Worse than Charles the Fat.

Wiki tells me there was a Tsar of Bulgaria nicknamed 'the Cabbage', but that's just weird, not insulting.

Could it be, that Eytein was a truly epic flatulator, even by Viking standards? That being acclaimed by his fellow berserkers as "the Fart" was NOT an insult, but rather a mark of distinction?

A true man of the people - full of the thunder of Thor!

TheScreamingEagles said:

dixiedean said:

I'm enjoying this hate crime discussion. Not something I'd thought about really. Civilised, learned and thoughtful on both sides.

I take the view if someone commits GBH on me because

1) To steal my mobile

or

2) They hate Pakis

It's going to hurt me the same either way.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Anabobazina said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1359990520307736578

I am set in for 2021 to be much similar to 2020, most likely with no foreign holidays.

I have already written off the prospect of going to things like gigs.

Did you go to gigs before Covid?

The idea this continues when all the vulnerable are vaccinated, and when cases are in the low hundreds per day is ridiculous.

The suppression of the virus was to protect the NHS from being overwhelmed.

Cases are currently in the tens of thousands per day not the low hundreds per day and only a fraction of the vulnerable are vaccinated.

No way this will continue when cases are in the low hundreds per day and all vulnerable are vaccinated.

I agree.

But it looks like someone needs to tell the govt this...

The thing that is the issue for the government, the South African variant (or something worse) taking hold in the UK before AZ have updated their vaccine.

Just look how quickly and easily Cockney Covid spread.

Gallowgate said:

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

Pulpstar said:

Gallowgate said:

@Philip_Thompson currently a crime that causes "an especially serious physical or psychological effect on the victim, even if unintended" leads to a higher sentence. [a i]

Are you really suggesting a mitigating factor might be "the crime has not lead to an especially serious physical or psychological effect on the victim"? [a ii]

Also currently a crime that is committed as part of a gang leads to a higher sentence. [b i]
Are you really suggesting a "mitigating factor" might be "the crime was not committed as part of a gang"? [b ii]

It's crazy.

Your examples [ai/aii] & [bi/bii] are actually logically equivalent though

I know they are. But it just makes the "box ticking exercise" more of a mockery.

If you don't include them, people are going to be unhappy that John and Clive, members of the Skull Beater gang who inflicted GBH on Ron, a member of the Blood Skins gang, "only" got the same sentence as Timmy who punched his friend Bob, accidentally causing GBH.

And before you know it you have aggravating factors again after some populist gets elected to clamp down on Gang violence.

I've said we shouldn't have justice by populism and shouldn't pander to the Daily Mail.

Are you saying we should pander to them?

I'm saying it's inevitable because like it or not society does view some instances of the same crime as more serious than others.

You could get around this by creating new criminal offences, such as a specific offence of "GBH as part of a gang" but the effect is the same with more complexity.

NickPalmer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

dixiedean said:

I'm enjoying this hate crime discussion. Not something I'd thought about really. Civilised, learned and thoughtful on both sides.

I take the view if someone commits GBH on me because

1) To steal my mobile

or

2) They hate Pakis

It's going to hurt me the same either way.

The difference is that 2), in addition to hurting you, conveys a threat to everyone else of the same origin, just as Kristallnacht was much more threatening than a gang of people randomly smashing the same number of windows. So I think that hate crime should be an aggravating factor.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Anabobazina said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1359990520307736578

I am set in for 2021 to be much similar to 2020, most likely with no foreign holidays.

I have already written off the prospect of going to things like gigs.

Did you go to gigs before Covid?

The idea this continues when all the vulnerable are vaccinated, and when cases are in the low hundreds per day is ridiculous.

The suppression of the virus was to protect the NHS from being overwhelmed.

Cases are currently in the tens of thousands per day not the low hundreds per day and only a fraction of the vulnerable are vaccinated.

No way this will continue when cases are in the low hundreds per day and all vulnerable are vaccinated.

I agree.

But it looks like someone needs to tell the govt this...

The thing that is the issue for the government, the South African variant (or something worse) taking hold in the UK before AZ have updated their vaccine.

Just look how quickly and easily Cockney Covid spread.

Gallowgate said:

If I don't get a good mark in my Ligitation module, which covered these exact topics, I'll be very disappointed.

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Anabobazina said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1359990520307736578

I am set in for 2021 to be much similar to 2020, most likely with no foreign holidays.

I have already written off the prospect of going to things like gigs.

Did you go to gigs before Covid?

The idea this continues when all the vulnerable are vaccinated, and when cases are in the low hundreds per day is ridiculous.

The suppression of the virus was to protect the NHS from being overwhelmed.

Cases are currently in the tens of thousands per day not the low hundreds per day and only a fraction of the vulnerable are vaccinated.

No way this will continue when cases are in the low hundreds per day and all vulnerable are vaccinated.

I agree.

But it looks like someone needs to tell the govt this...

The thing that is the issue for the government, the South African variant (or something worse) taking hold in the UK before AZ have updated their vaccine.

Just look how quickly and easily Cockney Covid spread.

Good thing we've got 17m Moderna and 60m Novavax doses available starting in April. Those give a very good degree of protection from the SA variant without needing updates, we could conceivably ask everyone who has had two AZ doses to come in for a Novavax booster in July after a very short safety test.

These people are hugely overthinking this a d unfortunately there does seem to be an element within the civil service that doesn't want to give up this power they now have over people's lives. It's up to politicians to stamp on it a d say enough is enough. No more lockdown, no more distancing, we have vaccines.

It's not so much giving up that power, I think the government and behavioural scientists realise this is the last lockdown, so they have to get it right.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Anabobazina said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1359990520307736578

I am set in for 2021 to be much similar to 2020, most likely with no foreign holidays.

I have already written off the prospect of going to things like gigs.

Did you go to gigs before Covid?

The idea this continues when all the vulnerable are vaccinated, and when cases are in the low hundreds per day is ridiculous.

The suppression of the virus was to protect the NHS from being overwhelmed.

Cases are currently in the tens of thousands per day not the low hundreds per day and only a fraction of the vulnerable are vaccinated.

No way this will continue when cases are in the low hundreds per day and all vulnerable are vaccinated.

I agree.

But it looks like someone needs to tell the govt this...

The thing that is the issue for the government, the South African variant (or something worse) taking hold in the UK before AZ have updated their vaccine.

Just look how quickly and easily Cockney Covid spread.

Mortimer said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1359990520307736578

Eh?

Whatever the law says, as soon as grandparents, aunts etc are vaccinated, they're going to be back hugging their relatives.

Utter madness. Ministers need to listen to Tory backbenchers on this. Return to something akin to normal after the vast majority of vulnerable are vaccinated. Normal once every adult has had a jab.

FrancisUrquhart said:

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1359986558141681664?s=20

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

Pulpstar said:

Gallowgate said:

@Philip_Thompson currently a crime that causes "an especially serious physical or psychological effect on the victim, even if unintended" leads to a higher sentence. [a i]

Are you really suggesting a mitigating factor might be "the crime has not lead to an especially serious physical or psychological effect on the victim"? [a ii]

Also currently a crime that is committed as part of a gang leads to a higher sentence. [b i]
Are you really suggesting a "mitigating factor" might be "the crime was not committed as part of a gang"? [b ii]

It's crazy.

Your examples [ai/aii] & [bi/bii] are actually logically equivalent though

I know they are. But it just makes the "box ticking exercise" more of a mockery.

If you don't include them, people are going to be unhappy that John and Clive, members of the Skull Beater gang who inflicted GBH on Ron, a member of the Blood Skins gang, "only" got the same sentence as Timmy who punched his friend Bob, accidentally causing GBH.

And before you know it you have aggravating factors again after some populist gets elected to clamp down on Gang violence.

I've said we shouldn't have justice by populism and shouldn't pander to the Daily Mail.

Are you saying we should pander to them?

I'm saying it's inevitable because like it or not society does view some instances of the same crime as more serious than others.

Well I don't like it.

Beating up a nurse and beating up a shop assistant are just as serious.

FrancisUrquhart said:

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1359986558141681664?s=20

NickPalmer said:

Casino_Royale said:

I'll put "the British Royal Family can only dream of being like the Dutch" next to Alan Partridge saying Wings are only the band the Beatles could have been.

Yeah, well, I prefer the Dutch monarchy AND I prefer Wings. Pineapple on pizza is cool too. De gustibus...

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Anabobazina said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1359990520307736578

I am set in for 2021 to be much similar to 2020, most likely with no foreign holidays.

I have already written off the prospect of going to things like gigs.

Did you go to gigs before Covid?

The idea this continues when all the vulnerable are vaccinated, and when cases are in the low hundreds per day is ridiculous.

The suppression of the virus was to protect the NHS from being overwhelmed.

Cases are currently in the tens of thousands per day not the low hundreds per day and only a fraction of the vulnerable are vaccinated.

No way this will continue when cases are in the low hundreds per day and all vulnerable are vaccinated.

I agree.

But it looks like someone needs to tell the govt this...

The thing that is the issue for the government, the South African variant (or something worse) taking hold in the UK before AZ have updated their vaccine.

Just look how quickly and easily Cockney Covid spread.

Good thing we've got 17m Moderna and 60m Novavax doses available starting in April. Those give a very good degree of protection from the SA variant without needing updates, we could conceivably ask everyone who has had two AZ doses to come in for a Novavax booster in July after a very short safety test.

These people are hugely overthinking this a d unfortunately there does seem to be an element within the civil service that doesn't want to give up this power they now have over people's lives. It's up to politicians to stamp on it a d say enough is enough. No more lockdown, no more distancing, we have vaccines.

It's not so much giving up that power, I think the government and behavioural scientists realise this is the last lockdown, so they have to get it right.

Andy_JS said:

Reading this thread, Gallowgate seems astonished that anyone might disagree with his opinion on the subject we've been talking about. I find that interesting.

Peter_the_Punter said:

Casino_Royale said:

Charles said:

Stuartinromford said:

Black_Rook said:

Stuartinromford said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

rcs1000 said:

Stuartinromford said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

ydoethur said:

Has to be said, their recent hysterical behaviour over inter alia vaccines strongly suggests the first.

No, the vaccines response was because they knew they had screwed up in a matter of the highest importance.

And, although we'll never know, I would not be shocked if there was a gap between what salesmen told the EU Commission and the contractual reality. Not a lie, of course, but incomplete truths, and enough for the EU to be justified in their pissed-offness.

(Simplest explanation of the events is that the EU simply didn't anticipate the details of the Hancock Contact, so didn't ask the right question. And AZ understandably didn't tell.)

Anyone in business knows that that is an all too common occurrence: salesperson sells vision to executive, the contract is reviewed by legal and assumes it matches what was discussed, later much unhappiness that contract and conversation are in no way aligned.

Although in this case I think it was probably more that the EU Commission was naive about the difficulties of ramping up production so fast. I bet Kate Bingham was a hell of a lot more realistic about the risk of delays, since she had good experience of other companies bringing new pharma products on stream. And, to be fair, UvdL has pretty much admitted this, once she'd stopped throwing her toys out of the pram in our direction.

I agree.

The UK's performance - and good sense - in encouraging, supporting and subsidising domestic production via long-term well priced contracts was exemplary. And it severely embarrassed the Commission, who responded very poorly.

What should now happen is that those responsible at the Commission (including the boss herself) are replaced. It was a monumental failure and those involved should pay with their jobs.

This would (hopefully) also allow a resetting of relationship.

Shame it won't happen.

Except... The EU's response has been mediocre.

Rich countries tapping Covax... That's very poor.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55932997

Poor Canada, they're in a much worse place in all of this than the EU. Various errors compounded by revenge-motivated export blocking by the Chinese, insofar as I understand it.

And the other places named downstory are Singapore and New Zealand.

Frankly, it's a shameful story with something for everyone.

Trudeau and Jacinda being beloved of a certain type of person in the uk

Justin Trudeau is the Wokiest of the Woke.

I honestly don't know how I'd cope if I had to endure in Canada under his regime of chronically embarrassing behaviour, and self-aggrandizing bullshit, laced with tremendous hypocrisy and entitlement.

I might find self-immolation more pleasant.

This isn't going to improve your view one bit, but I know someone who was at school with him. Never mind 'woke' or anything else, he reckoned the overwhelming impression he gave was simply of being a bit dim.

NickPalmer said:

Mortimer said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1359990520307736578

Eh?

Whatever the law says, as soon as grandparents, aunts etc are vaccinated, they're going to be back hugging their relatives.

Utter madness. Ministers need to listen to Tory backbenchers on this. Return to something akin to normal after the vast majority of vulnerable are vaccinated. Normal once every adult has had a jab.

Broadly I thinhk there are 4 groups:

1 - Hug now, sod the law (5%)
2 - As soon as it's legal, resume normal life (5%)
3 - As soon as it's legal, see close relatives and particularly dear friends (60%)
4 - Minimise contact for 12 months, even if legal (30%)

Groups 1 and 2 will have increasingly ostentatious parties while groups 3 and 4 eye them dubiously. 2-3 is obviously a question of degree, though - I should think most people will start with 3 and edge into 2 if cases remain low, likewise 4->3. I'll be a 4 edging towards 3 myself.

Mortimer said:

solarflare said:

Mortimer said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1359990520307736578

Eh?

Whatever the law says, as soon as grandparents, aunts etc are vaccinated, they're going to be back hugging their relatives.

Utter madness. Ministers need to listen to Tory backbenchers on this. Return to something akin to normal after the vast majority of vulnerable are vaccinated. Normal once every adult has had a jab.

Some of the lines in that article are brilliant.

"It has repercussions for the scale of any reopening. Restaurants, pubs and offices will all need to be Covid-secure."

Great, I thought we did that months ago. Job done.


"A government source said "the more restrictions we have in place like social distancing rules the more we can do in terms of easing"

What doublethink horseshit is that?

Utterly bonkers isn't it.

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Anabobazina said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1359990520307736578

I am set in for 2021 to be much similar to 2020, most likely with no foreign holidays.

I have already written off the prospect of going to things like gigs.

Did you go to gigs before Covid?

The idea this continues when all the vulnerable are vaccinated, and when cases are in the low hundreds per day is ridiculous.

The suppression of the virus was to protect the NHS from being overwhelmed.

Cases are currently in the tens of thousands per day not the low hundreds per day and only a fraction of the vulnerable are vaccinated.

No way this will continue when cases are in the low hundreds per day and all vulnerable are vaccinated.

I agree.

But it looks like someone needs to tell the govt this...

The thing that is the issue for the government, the South African variant (or something worse) taking hold in the UK before AZ have updated their vaccine.

Just look how quickly and easily Cockney Covid spread.

Good thing we've got 17m Moderna and 60m Novavax doses available starting in April. Those give a very good degree of protection from the SA variant without needing updates, we could conceivably ask everyone who has had two AZ doses to come in for a Novavax booster in July after a very short safety test.

These people are hugely overthinking this a d unfortunately there does seem to be an element within the civil service that doesn't want to give up this power they now have over people's lives. It's up to politicians to stamp on it a d say enough is enough. No more lockdown, no more distancing, we have vaccines.

It's not so much giving up that power, I think the government and behavioural scientists realise this is the last lockdown, so they have to get it right.

It can't last until the autumn though. The idea is ridiculous. In two weeks cases will have fallen to the low thousands per day and deaths will be tens per day. There's simply no way the people will stand for lockdown based on the theoretical threat of a variant for which we have got vaccines coming in the very near future anyway. The pressure to fully unlock the economy a month from now when all over 60s will have reached partial or full immunity and cases will be less than a thousand per day is going to immense.

I said it a few days ago, the party will act and get rid of Boris if that's the only way to get rid of Hancock and rule by SAGE. He knows that too.

kle4 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1359986558141681664?s=20

I hate the way budgeting is talked about in this country. Everything is a 'raid' or 'stealth' tax, we're always so bloody unreasonable.

There will be arguments about the right time to raise taxes to not stifle recovery, arguments I am ill equipped to follow, understand or contribute in, but if ever there might be a time that a Chancellor could undertake some major changes which would be slightly less unpopular than usual, it would surely be now given the urgency.

But I fear the natural tendency to approve of rises, in theory, only to always have a problem with any ones with a major positive impact on finances, will see squeezes in limited areas to try to avoid pissing off the papers and normal outrage triggers.

NickPalmer said:

Mortimer said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1359990520307736578

Eh?

Whatever the law says, as soon as grandparents, aunts etc are vaccinated, they're going to be back hugging their relatives.

Utter madness. Ministers need to listen to Tory backbenchers on this. Return to something akin to normal after the vast majority of vulnerable are vaccinated. Normal once every adult has had a jab.

Broadly I thinhk there are 4 groups:

1 - Hug now, sod the law (5%)
2 - As soon as it's legal, resume normal life (5%)
3 - As soon as it's legal, see close relatives and particularly dear friends (60%)
4 - Minimise contact for 12 months, even if legal (30%)

Groups 1 and 2 will have increasingly ostentatious parties while groups 3 and 4 eye them dubiously. 2-3 is obviously a question of degree, though - I should think most people will start with 3 and edge into 2 if cases remain low, likewise 4->3. I'll be a 4 edging towards 3 myself.

kle4 said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Impressive. I think we need a comment by @Leon...

https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/1359997040764325888

Yes, this would appear to be in Leon's neck o' the woods. AND up his . . . er . . . alley . . .

Joking aside, who 'caught' them and why? Surely no offence was committed against anything other than common sense.

Not an essential journey apparently.

kle4 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1359986558141681664?s=20

I hate the way budgeting is talked about in this country. Everything is a 'raid' or 'stealth' tax, we're always so bloody unreasonable.

There will be arguments about the right time to raise taxes to not stifle recovery, arguments I am ill equipped to follow, understand or contribute in, but if ever there might be a time that a Chancellor could undertake some major changes which would be slightly less unpopular than usual, it would surely be now given the urgency.

But I fear the natural tendency to approve of rises, in theory, only to always have a problem with any ones with a major positive impact on finances, will see squeezes in limited areas to try to avoid pissing off the papers and normal outrage triggers.

Anabobazina said:

Mortimer said:

solarflare said:

Mortimer said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1359990520307736578

Eh?

Whatever the law says, as soon as grandparents, aunts etc are vaccinated, they're going to be back hugging their relatives.

Utter madness. Ministers need to listen to Tory backbenchers on this. Return to something akin to normal after the vast majority of vulnerable are vaccinated. Normal once every adult has had a jab.

Some of the lines in that article are brilliant.

"It has repercussions for the scale of any reopening. Restaurants, pubs and offices will all need to be Covid-secure."

Great, I thought we did that months ago. Job done.


"A government source said "the more restrictions we have in place like social distancing rules the more we can do in terms of easing"

What doublethink horseshit is that?

Utterly bonkers isn't it.

It is.

Rather like saying, “as long as you agree to stay two metres apart, limit numbers to six people including your own household, and wear masks, you can have parties again”.

CatMan said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Casino_Royale said:

Charles said:

Stuartinromford said:

Black_Rook said:

Stuartinromford said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

rcs1000 said:

Stuartinromford said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

ydoethur said:

Has to be said, their recent hysterical behaviour over inter alia vaccines strongly suggests the first.

No, the vaccines response was because they knew they had screwed up in a matter of the highest importance.

And, although we'll never know, I would not be shocked if there was a gap between what salesmen told the EU Commission and the contractual reality. Not a lie, of course, but incomplete truths, and enough for the EU to be justified in their pissed-offness.

(Simplest explanation of the events is that the EU simply didn't anticipate the details of the Hancock Contact, so didn't ask the right question. And AZ understandably didn't tell.)

Anyone in business knows that that is an all too common occurrence: salesperson sells vision to executive, the contract is reviewed by legal and assumes it matches what was discussed, later much unhappiness that contract and conversation are in no way aligned.

Although in this case I think it was probably more that the EU Commission was naive about the difficulties of ramping up production so fast. I bet Kate Bingham was a hell of a lot more realistic about the risk of delays, since she had good experience of other companies bringing new pharma products on stream. And, to be fair, UvdL has pretty much admitted this, once she'd stopped throwing her toys out of the pram in our direction.

I agree.

The UK's performance - and good sense - in encouraging, supporting and subsidising domestic production via long-term well priced contracts was exemplary. And it severely embarrassed the Commission, who responded very poorly.

What should now happen is that those responsible at the Commission (including the boss herself) are replaced. It was a monumental failure and those involved should pay with their jobs.

This would (hopefully) also allow a resetting of relationship.

Shame it won't happen.

Except... The EU's response has been mediocre.

Rich countries tapping Covax... That's very poor.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55932997

Poor Canada, they're in a much worse place in all of this than the EU. Various errors compounded by revenge-motivated export blocking by the Chinese, insofar as I understand it.

And the other places named downstory are Singapore and New Zealand.

Frankly, it's a shameful story with something for everyone.

Trudeau and Jacinda being beloved of a certain type of person in the uk

Justin Trudeau is the Wokiest of the Woke.

I honestly don't know how I'd cope if I had to endure in Canada under his regime of chronically embarrassing behaviour, and self-aggrandizing bullshit, laced with tremendous hypocrisy and entitlement.

I might find self-immolation more pleasant.

This isn't going to improve your view one bit, but I know someone who was at school with him. Never mind 'woke' or anything else, he reckoned the overwhelming impression he gave was simply of being a bit dim.

He legalised weed though, so he is the greatest person who ever lived (in my drug addled mind)

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

solarflare said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Anabobazina said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1359990520307736578

I am set in for 2021 to be much similar to 2020, most likely with no foreign holidays.

I have already written off the prospect of going to things like gigs.

Did you go to gigs before Covid?

The idea this continues when all the vulnerable are vaccinated, and when cases are in the low hundreds per day is ridiculous.

The suppression of the virus was to protect the NHS from being overwhelmed.

Cases are currently in the tens of thousands per day not the low hundreds per day and only a fraction of the vulnerable are vaccinated.

No way this will continue when cases are in the low hundreds per day and all vulnerable are vaccinated.

I agree.

But it looks like someone needs to tell the govt this...

The thing that is the issue for the government, the South African variant (or something worse) taking hold in the UK before AZ have updated their vaccine.

Just look how quickly and easily Cockney Covid spread.

By the time AZ have updated their vaccine and are mass producing it we'll be talking at the very least about the next major scary variant but one.

If you can't open up in the summer months when can you? Keeping restrictions till autumn means actually spring 2022 in practice.

Yes, it's the attitude that leads to neverending lockdown for fear of the next mutation. The aim has to be to turn COVID into a flu like virus that can be dealt with by vaccinating the at risk population in September every year. It can't turn into forever lockdown and forever social distancing, that will lead to actual rioting.

We should have annual flu-like vaccines for everyone not just the at risk - and we should start offering the flu vaccine to everyone too. We've shown we can manufacture vaccines at scale so just bloody do it.

If everyone is vaccinated it will reduce spread.

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

solarflare said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Anabobazina said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1359990520307736578

I am set in for 2021 to be much similar to 2020, most likely with no foreign holidays.

I have already written off the prospect of going to things like gigs.

Did you go to gigs before Covid?

The idea this continues when all the vulnerable are vaccinated, and when cases are in the low hundreds per day is ridiculous.

The suppression of the virus was to protect the NHS from being overwhelmed.

Cases are currently in the tens of thousands per day not the low hundreds per day and only a fraction of the vulnerable are vaccinated.

No way this will continue when cases are in the low hundreds per day and all vulnerable are vaccinated.

I agree.

But it looks like someone needs to tell the govt this...

The thing that is the issue for the government, the South African variant (or something worse) taking hold in the UK before AZ have updated their vaccine.

Just look how quickly and easily Cockney Covid spread.

By the time AZ have updated their vaccine and are mass producing it we'll be talking at the very least about the next major scary variant but one.

If you can't open up in the summer months when can you? Keeping restrictions till autumn means actually spring 2022 in practice.

Yes, it's the attitude that leads to neverending lockdown for fear of the next mutation. The aim has to be to turn COVID into a flu like virus that can be dealt with by vaccinating the at risk population in September every year. It can't turn into forever lockdown and forever social distancing, that will lead to actual rioting.

We should have annual flu-like vaccines for everyone not just the at risk - and we should start offering the flu vaccine to everyone too. We've shown we can manufacture vaccines at scale so just bloody do it.

If everyone is vaccinated it will reduce spread.

Gallowgate said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Gallowgate said:

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

Pulpstar said:

Gallowgate said:

@Philip_Thompson currently a crime that causes "an especially serious physical or psychological effect on the victim, even if unintended" leads to a higher sentence. [a i]

Are you really suggesting a mitigating factor might be "the crime has not lead to an especially serious physical or psychological effect on the victim"? [a ii]

Also currently a crime that is committed as part of a gang leads to a higher sentence. [b i]
Are you really suggesting a "mitigating factor" might be "the crime was not committed as part of a gang"? [b ii]

It's crazy.

Your examples [ai/aii] & [bi/bii] are actually logically equivalent though

I know they are. But it just makes the "box ticking exercise" more of a mockery.

If you don't include them, people are going to be unhappy that John and Clive, members of the Skull Beater gang who inflicted GBH on Ron, a member of the Blood Skins gang, "only" got the same sentence as Timmy who punched his friend Bob, accidentally causing GBH.

And before you know it you have aggravating factors again after some populist gets elected to clamp down on Gang violence.

I've said we shouldn't have justice by populism and shouldn't pander to the Daily Mail.

Are you saying we should pander to them?

I'm saying it's inevitable because like it or not society does view some instances of the same crime as more serious than others.

You could get around this by creating new criminal offences, such as a specific offence of "GBH as part of a gang" but the effect is the same with more complexity.

Here in WA State, a bill has been filed in the state House of Representatives, to make assaulting an election worker a (specific) crime; this is direct result of threats made by rabid Trumpskyites against the state election director and local election workers.

To be fair the advantage of codifying a new offence, for example "GBH motivated by racism" or whatever, is that it expressly puts the evidential burden on the prosecution to prove to the jury (or magistrates) beyond doubt that the crime was racially motivated.

Which would alleviate @Pagan2 's concerns.

MaxPB said:

Mortimer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

solarflare said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Anabobazina said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1359990520307736578

I am set in for 2021 to be much similar to 2020, most likely with no foreign holidays.

I have already written off the prospect of going to things like gigs.

Did you go to gigs before Covid?

The idea this continues when all the vulnerable are vaccinated, and when cases are in the low hundreds per day is ridiculous.

The suppression of the virus was to protect the NHS from being overwhelmed.

Cases are currently in the tens of thousands per day not the low hundreds per day and only a fraction of the vulnerable are vaccinated.

No way this will continue when cases are in the low hundreds per day and all vulnerable are vaccinated.

I agree.

But it looks like someone needs to tell the govt this...

The thing that is the issue for the government, the South African variant (or something worse) taking hold in the UK before AZ have updated their vaccine.

Just look how quickly and easily Cockney Covid spread.

By the time AZ have updated their vaccine and are mass producing it we'll be talking at the very least about the next major scary variant but one.

If you can't open up in the summer months when can you? Keeping restrictions till autumn means actually spring 2022 in practice.

Yes, it's the attitude that leads to neverending lockdown for fear of the next mutation. The aim has to be to turn COVID into a flu like virus that can be dealt with by vaccinating the at risk population in September every year. It can't turn into forever lockdown and forever social distancing, that will lead to actual rioting.

We should have annual flu-like vaccines for everyone not just the at risk - and we should start offering the flu vaccine to everyone too. We've shown we can manufacture vaccines at scale so just bloody do it.

If everyone is vaccinated it will reduce spread.

Should we? Maybe for carers and NHS staff and oldies.

I've had Flu, it isn't pleasant. But I've had it once in 34 years. I don't intend to either a) permit lockdowns or b) suggest the entire population should have a jab to avoid something that isn't statistically likely to impact them massively.

Make optional for under 50s.

londonpubman said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1359986558141681664?s=20

I would have thought that is absolutely nailed on - so easy to do, and raises decent money.

CarlottaVance said:

Wales take the lead - two strong performances from NI & Scotland:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1360005801444802564?s=20

Philip_Thompson said:

Anabobazina said:

NickPalmer said:

Mortimer said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1359990520307736578

Eh?

Whatever the law says, as soon as grandparents, aunts etc are vaccinated, they're going to be back hugging their relatives.

Utter madness. Ministers need to listen to Tory backbenchers on this. Return to something akin to normal after the vast majority of vulnerable are vaccinated. Normal once every adult has had a jab.

Broadly I thinhk there are 4 groups:

1 - Hug now, sod the law (5%)
2 - As soon as it's legal, resume normal life (5%)
3 - As soon as it's legal, see close relatives and particularly dear friends (60%)
4 - Minimise contact for 12 months, even if legal (30%)

Groups 1 and 2 will have increasingly ostentatious parties while groups 3 and 4 eye them dubiously. 2-3 is obviously a question of degree, though - I should think most people will start with 3 and edge into 2 if cases remain low, likewise 4->3. I'll be a 4 edging towards 3 myself.

I think you are way off with your numbers. Group 2 is much larger than you think.

Define normal life.

The first lockdown began the week before my daughter's sixth birthday, we didn't book her a birthday party last year as it was clear it wasn't a good idea already. We had planned a smaller family gathering but that was obviously cancelled due to lockdown.

I expect lockdown lifting to be underway before her seventh birthday but we're not even considering throwing her a party this year. For me a "return to normal" is when we start doing everything we would have done without a second thought. Every other weekend normally I swear we were taking my daughter to someone's birthday party - but the last one we went to was probably around this time last year.

Even if lockdown is lifted I doubt many big kids birthday parties inviting all their classmates and all their parents are going to be happening this side of the summer holidays at the very earliest.