May 6th – the return of real elections and lots of data for political nerds to get stuck into – poli
May 6th – the return of real elections and lots of data for political nerds to get stuck into – politicalbetting.com
It has been a long wait but it looks almost certain that Thursday May 6th will see local and mayoral elections taking place once again. This will be in addition to the elections for the devolved parliaments in Scotland and Wales.
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No way a government would survive holding all these elections and still have parents trying to home school and all the associated mental health and educational problems.
Oh Dan.
Shall take your jabs, O Israel.
There is a rather sinister and nauseating attitude among many PBers that journalists ought to refrain from asking the questions that are exercising the minds of the public.
I can tell you that – outside the PB bubble – millions of families are trying to plan holidays, weddings and other trips – and want to see a clear route out of this.
The idea that the press shouldn't ask these questions regularly or hold the government's hands to the fire over timetable fully deserves the following billing:
Only on PB
This week it is now back to but when can I book my summer holidays?
People may be a bit harsh on the journalists, perhaps, but I think the implication they cannot be criticised for their choices is a bit bizarre, particularly when it's often people who would prefer questions which would not paint the government in a fine light so it's not about giving the gov an easy ride.
World-beating, and now World-Health-Organization-leading too...
So you prescribe long, bracing walks in the countryside instead? I'm sure they are all ears.
https://www.bbc.com/sport/basketball/55988763
Daily Kos - US Presidential results 2012, 2016 & 2020 by Congressional District
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections?link_id=9&can_id=d4085e1b7f52a12c847981a009948aff&source=email-morning-digest-our-new-data-shows-how-new-york-city-moved-right-as-the-rest-of-the-state-went-left&email_referrer=email_1071551&email_subject=morning-digest-our-new-data-shows-how-new-york-city-moved-right-as-the-rest-of-the-state-went-left
https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1359523687305797636?s=20
Given that Trump by all accounts is a cheating **** when it comes to golf, not the best metaphor.
And we still haven't heard from Nic or Eck...
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19079195.jim-sillars-calls-revolt-within-snp-sweep-leadership-power/
Now have to look at what Sturgeon has been saying.
Jobs? Schools? Freedom to go shopping, visit the beach, play footy in the park, whatever.
I think it is really a holiday from the rules that people want, not actually the flying away part.
https://twitter.com/briantylercohen/status/1359294241768316928
https://twitter.com/AsheLaura/status/1359097874135547907
Treason doth never prosper: what's the reason?
Why, if it prosper, none dare call it treason.
So you are absolutely right that holidays may well be shorthand for "when will this all end". But for the nation's mental health, they are an issue that the govt should consider very carefully indeed.
And "where you are"? What, quaint Leicestershire villages?
I think that there is a fair bit of ambient virus circulating, in effect acting as a vaccine booster too.
However the standard syringes used in Japan can only extract five doses from each vial, cabinet secretary Katsunobu Kato tells reporters.
The remaining dose in each vial will be "basically discarded", he adds - meaning they will be able to vaccinate 12 million fewer people than previously thought.
I am not sure if you are aware of "County Lines" but drug dealing is quite a thing in market towns.
I wonder if there be a differential turnout between the vaccinated and the unvaccinated? Or is this all going to be done by post? Might lead to some interesting results.
A U.S. plan to force the sale of TikTok’s American operations to a group including Oracle Corp. and Walmart Inc. has been shelved indefinitely, people familiar with the situation said, as President Biden undertakes a broad review of his predecessor’s efforts to address potential security risks from Chinese tech companies.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/tiktok-sale-to-oracle-walmart-is-shelved-as-biden-reviews-security-11612958401
I was going to post a similar response but was a bit slow.
The postponed district councils seats were last up in 2016 and saw a result of Labour 31%, Tories 30% and LDs 15% so there is likely to be little change there, though again the LDs could get squeezed unless they get their local vote out again.
https://twitter.com/JohnAnzo/status/1359518318009475074?s=20
It's not only the EU who got this wrong but also the BMA and a few twitter celeb doctors like Rachel Clarke who are clearly not experts in the field of vaccinations. I'm glad for all our sakes our approach has been vindicated.
The 2017 locals/mayorals was one of the best for the Tories/worst for Labour in recent times, certainly one a party that had been in government for seven years.
The 2017 locals was one of the reasons Tory strategists were convinced Mrs May was on course to win a majority of 294.
You were sneering at those people who want to swap "a set of small rooms in Birmingham for a small room in Spain when they should really be going out for long walks in the country." I paraphase.
I hope it makes you feel better to be so dismissive of such people.
https://twitter.com/XLilliputian/status/1359531511817658370?s=20
Then again - https://twistedfood.co.uk/the-unbelievable-true-story-behind-glasgows-ice-cream-wars
Of course equivalence should be the sane, rational solution but if they don't desire to be sane and rational we can't make them be.
We can however invoke Article 16.
New York City is now using Ranked Choice Voting for municipal primary and special elections. Including two special elections for city council this February.
Under the new system, voters can rank up to five candidates in their order of preference; if no candidate received a majority of first prefs, then candidates with lowest votes are eliminated (figuratively speaking) and their votes are redistributed to each voter's next-highest pref (if they had any).
For special elections, there is an early voting period (in person & absentee) as well as regular poll voting on special election day.
> On February 2, in NYC Council District 24 in eastern Queens (Fresh Meadows, Jamaica) where 8 candidates filed, special election was won by former councilmember James Genaro with 59.8% of first preferences; turnout was 11% of active registered voters. This vacancy was created when incumbent resigned to take state job with Gov. Cuomo; district is ethnically mixed between Whites, Asians & Latinos, plus some Blacks, and
> On February 23, in NYC Council District 31, also in southeast Queens (JFK, Far Rockaway & other hoods close to the airport), 13 candidates are contending for seat that became open when the incumbent was elected Queens Borough President last fall. Also note this district is 2/3 Black and just 5% White, with large Latino element. Likely winner will be Black Democrat with significant endorsements, esp. from labor.
My guess is that special election in NYC Dist 31 will go past the first count, as no candidate is as clear a front runner as Genaro was in Dist 24.
Looking forward, two more NYC Council special elections scheduled for March 23:
> District 11 in northwest Bronx (the most "suburban" part of this famously gritty borough); incumbent just elected as judge.
> District 15 in central Bronx (Fordham & vicinity) incumbent elected in 2020 to US House.
We are sending postal votes details to every household to encourage it as far as possible. I doubt if there's a predictable impact on any party benefiting - traditionally the Tories do best on postal votes, but that's perhaps because postal voting has been skewed to the elderly. It's one of those things that just makes sense, regardless of party.