politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation finds CON to LAB swing of 7.3% with the LDs dropp
One thing’s already established for GE15. We are going to see far more different polling types than anything that has been experienced before at a British general election. We are also seeing a wider range of funders like today’s Survation poll in four key London commuter belt marginals which was commissioned by the RMT union.
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This is exactly what is happening.
To avoid a wipe out Tories have to do a deal with UKIP in some form or another. Anything over 5% UKIP is an election loss and 19% for UKIP is a 300 seat battering for the Tories.
Watch that referendum promise be fast tracked before May just as soon as Scots indy is out of the way....0 -
Bringing the proposed referendum date forward would look like panic surely?0
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If the Conservatives aren't panicking, they should be. Once UKIP elect some MPs they diminish their 'wasted vote' handicap.peter_from_putney said:Bringing the proposed referendum date forward would look like panic surely?
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May 2014 local election results.
Stevenage: Con 30%, Lab 36%, LD 9%, UKIP 21%, Green 2%
Milton Keynes South: Con 28%, Lab 30%, LD 12%, UKIP 22%, Green 7%
Crawley: Con 36%, Lab 40%, LD 2%, UKIP 19%, Green 1%
Reading West: Con 24%, Lab 46%, LD 12%, UKIP 6%, Green 9%
http://www.fabians.org.uk/election-2014-the-numbers/0 -
How far forward? Before or on election day horrible, splits the party. After election makes no difference, except for showing everyone that Cameron's "renegotiation" policy was always bullshit.peter_from_putney said:Bringing the proposed referendum date forward would look like panic surely?
Maybe some mileage in amending the referendum bill to bring it forward, as this looks eurosceptic while in fact definitively killing the bill by neutralizing the Parliament Act.
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The word "subsample" seems to be standing in the corner of the room jumping up and down like an excited puppy trying to be noticed. What is the size of the sample for each of the four constituencies? With the local election percentages as given two comments ago, it may be misleading to combine the four constituencies together in a joint poll, rather than publishing them separately.0
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Labour are certainly doing well in Crawley. A strong, well organised CLP that has just won control of the council. Wouldn't be surprised if they took the seat.0
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Let's be generous and proffer to PBers that these Survation polls are less than useless. The unweighted sample size in each constituency was :
Milton Keynes South - 226
Crawley - 230
Reading West - 234
Stevenage - 225
The MoE of such polls is only slightly smaller than Eric Pickles gargantuan waistline. We may at least thank Survation for reminding us all that microscopic sample sizes are as much use as an English Cricket, Football .... (insert sport as required) team.
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/RMT-Rail-Ownership-Poll-Tables.pdf0 -
What politician in their right mind would want Crawley ? If Labour run the council the only sensible thing to do is call in the bulldozers and start again from scratch.Jonathan said:Labour are certainly doing well in Crawley. A strong, well organised CLP that has just won control of the council. Wouldn't be surprised if they took the seat.
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Latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdowns :
2 hours0 -
I see that Shadsy has Labour at 7/2 to take Reading West. The local results may support this poll to suggest some value.
It also seems to be the one of these seats that is least kipper. Is there any reason for this?
Not only is this poll bad for LDs and Tories; it is bad for kippers too. There are no seats for you here in Milliband territory.anotherDave said:May 2014 local election results.
Stevenage: Con 30%, Lab 36%, LD 9%, UKIP 21%, Green 2%
Milton Keynes South: Con 28%, Lab 30%, LD 12%, UKIP 22%, Green 7%
Crawley: Con 36%, Lab 40%, LD 2%, UKIP 19%, Green 1%
Reading West: Con 24%, Lab 46%, LD 12%, UKIP 6%, Green 9%
http://www.fabians.org.uk/election-2014-the-numbers/0 -
No no no. Don't be silly. Cameron had a bigger lead? Ed is Carp? We know kippers think Dave is carp and won't vote for him but let's pretend that isn't true? The economy is fixed? UKIP voters want a referendum so will vote Tory? Kippers are all Tory and will come home, except for the Labour ones who won't? Errrr Gordon Brown was EVIL therefore Labour can't win again ever ever? No, got it. UNS says that in an election where the main parties are no longer nationally spread and national percentage shares don't mean a lot we can ignore this, take the national polls, transfer the UKIP score to Tory (and some Labour score to UKIP as kippers go home unless they're Labour in which case reverse it), apply UNS from before we had UKIP skewing the figures and there you are - TORY MAJORITY NAILED ON.
Anyone who disagrees with our flawless logic is a leftie fruitcake or delusional or clutching at straws like pointless key marginals polls and national polls and eventually the general election result itself showing Labour winning. And anyway, Ed can't eat a sandwich, so he can't be allowed to win so we've decreed he won't.0 -
Good morning all and given how accurate Survation polls tend to be, the Tories should be encouraged that they are only 4% behind Labour. Now if this was an ICM poll that would be different.
Roll on the ARSE for a real poll which matters!0 -
Sample size aside these are the percentages for the individual seats, which is admittedly just as useless as a 4-seat aggregate:JackW said:Let's be generous and proffer to PBers that these Survation polls are less than useless. The unweighted sample size in each constituency was :
Milton Keynes South - 226
Crawley - 230
Reading West - 234
Stevenage - 225
The MoE of such polls is only slightly smaller than Eric Pickles gargantuan waistline. We may at least thank Survation for reminding us all that microscopic sample sizes are as much use as an English Cricket, Football .... (insert sport as required) team.
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/RMT-Rail-Ownership-Poll-Tables.pdf
MK South: C 38%, L 34%, Ukip 20%, LD 4%
Crawley: C 39%, L 39%, Ukip 16%, LD 0%
R West: C 32%, L 44%, Ukip 13%, LD 2%
Steve: C 25%, L 38%, Ukip 27%, LD 3%
But I guess the RMT had other reasons for the poll than VI for politics geeks.0 -
Rochdale, have you defected to the Kippers? You said Dave is carp and Ed is carp. However carp is not a fish used to make kippers is it?RochdalePioneers said:No no no. Don't be silly. Cameron had a bigger lead? Ed is Carp? We know kippers think Dave is carp and won't vote for him but let's pretend that isn't true? The economy is fixed? UKIP voters want a referendum so will vote Tory? Kippers are all Tory and will come home, except for the Labour ones who won't? Errrr Gordon Brown was EVIL therefore Labour can't win again ever ever? No, got it. UNS says that in an election where the main parties are no longer nationally spread and national percentage shares don't mean a lot we can ignore this, take the national polls, transfer the UKIP score to Tory (and some Labour score to UKIP as kippers go home unless they're Labour in which case reverse it), apply UNS from before we had UKIP skewing the figures and there you are - TORY MAJORITY NAILED ON.
Anyone who disagrees with our flawless logic is a leftie fruitcake or delusional or clutching at straws like pointless key marginals polls and national polls and eventually the general election result itself showing Labour winning. And anyway, Ed can't eat a sandwich, so he can't be allowed to win so we've decreed he won't.
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You need (red) herrings to make kippers. Perhaps that could be the new symbol for the party. :-)Easterross said:
Rochdale, have you defected to the Kippers? You said Dave is carp and Ed is carp. However carp is not a fish used to make kippers is it?RochdalePioneers said:No no no. Don't be silly. Cameron had a bigger lead? Ed is Carp? We know kippers think Dave is carp and won't vote for him but let's pretend that isn't true? The economy is fixed? UKIP voters want a referendum so will vote Tory? Kippers are all Tory and will come home, except for the Labour ones who won't? Errrr Gordon Brown was EVIL therefore Labour can't win again ever ever? No, got it. UNS says that in an election where the main parties are no longer nationally spread and national percentage shares don't mean a lot we can ignore this, take the national polls, transfer the UKIP score to Tory (and some Labour score to UKIP as kippers go home unless they're Labour in which case reverse it), apply UNS from before we had UKIP skewing the figures and there you are - TORY MAJORITY NAILED ON.
Anyone who disagrees with our flawless logic is a leftie fruitcake or delusional or clutching at straws like pointless key marginals polls and national polls and eventually the general election result itself showing Labour winning. And anyway, Ed can't eat a sandwich, so he can't be allowed to win so we've decreed he won't.
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The Labour vote is up 5.9% in this poll on 2010. Applying that to their national polling gets them up to about 35% which seems in line with most of the polling at the moment.
The tory vote is down 8.7% which puts them at about 28% which seems a touch low.
The Lib Dems are down 15.2% which gets them down to about 8% which is in line with recent polling.
UKIP are up 15.4% which puts them at about 18% which is again fairly in line.
So actually, other than a slightly low tory score this polling seems to me to be pretty much in line with current polling and does not show the tories doing markedly worse than they are overall, maybe a per cent or two at most. It shows what a mountain they still have to climb to have any chance of remaining the largest party.
I remain of the view that is unlikely and that Labour will be the largest party with any swing back from here only denying them a majority.0 -
Politician in their right mind! Some sort of oxymoron?Alanbrooke said:
What politician in their right mind would want Crawley ? If Labour run the council the only sensible thing to do is call in the bulldozers and start again from scratch.Jonathan said:Labour are certainly doing well in Crawley. A strong, well organised CLP that has just won control of the council. Wouldn't be surprised if they took the seat.
More seriously doesn’t the 2% (or similar) LD share underline the probability of substantially higher shares elsewhere?0 -
Clearly Survation is reluctant to turn away business but to poll fewer than 250 voters in each of these constituencies is bonkers.Millsy said:
Sample size aside these are the percentages for the individual seats, which is admittedly just as useless as a 4-seat aggregate:JackW said:Let's be generous and proffer to PBers that these Survation polls are less than useless. The unweighted sample size in each constituency was :
Milton Keynes South - 226
Crawley - 230
Reading West - 234
Stevenage - 225
The MoE of such polls is only slightly smaller than Eric Pickles gargantuan waistline. We may at least thank Survation for reminding us all that microscopic sample sizes are as much use as an English Cricket, Football .... (insert sport as required) team.
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/RMT-Rail-Ownership-Poll-Tables.pdf
MK South: C 38%, L 34%, Ukip 20%, LD 4%
Crawley: C 39%, L 39%, Ukip 16%, LD 0%
R West: C 32%, L 44%, Ukip 13%, LD 2%
Steve: C 25%, L 38%, Ukip 27%, LD 3%
But I guess the RMT had other reasons for the poll than VI for politics geeks.
May I also advise PBers that the 0% LibDem score in Crawley is entirely unrelated to any shortage of Scottish LibDems in the Auchentennach vicinity or the "Visit Scotland" publicity campaign run in "LibDem Focus" in parts of Sussex and sponsored by a senior figure in the said Auchentennach community ....
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Lord Ashcroft has conducted two polls of Labour/Conservative marginals and ComRes have conducted one. In those three polls, the Lib Dems tallied 8% on all three occasions. This poll is the odd one out.
It may, of course, be the correct one.0 -
You assume that the campaign itself will have no effect. The 2010 campaign, IIRC, had quite a large one...DavidL said:The Labour vote is up 5.9% in this poll on 2010. Applying that to their national polling gets them up to about 35% which seems in line with most of the polling at the moment.
The tory vote is down 8.7% which puts them at about 28% which seems a touch low.
The Lib Dems are down 15.2% which gets them down to about 8% which is in line with recent polling.
UKIP are up 15.4% which puts them at about 18% which is again fairly in line.
So actually, other than a slightly low tory score this polling seems to me to be pretty much in line with current polling and does not show the tories doing markedly worse than they are overall, maybe a per cent or two at most. It shows what a mountain they still have to climb to have any chance of remaining the largest party.
I remain of the view that is unlikely and that Labour will be the largest party with any swing back from here only denying them a majority.
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Yes and it also suggests more pessimism is required in the lost deposit market.OldKingCole said:
Politician in their right mind! Some sort of oxymoron?Alanbrooke said:
What politician in their right mind would want Crawley ? If Labour run the council the only sensible thing to do is call in the bulldozers and start again from scratch.Jonathan said:Labour are certainly doing well in Crawley. A strong, well organised CLP that has just won control of the council. Wouldn't be surprised if they took the seat.
More seriously doesn’t the 2% (or similar) LD share underline the probability of substantially higher shares elsewhere?
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This poll is also in line with the local results, so dismissing it out of hand is rather harsh. When it comes down to individual seats it is hard to see Tory gains and not hard to find ones that look like going Labour.
Much as I admire Jacks ARSE, it look as if the only thing likely to prevent Ed being PM is if he was crushed in a freak pie accident perpetrated by Scots nobility.DavidL said:The Labour vote is up 5.9% in this poll on 2010. Applying that to their national polling gets them up to about 35% which seems in line with most of the polling at the moment.
The tory vote is down 8.7% which puts them at about 28% which seems a touch low.
The Lib Dems are down 15.2% which gets them down to about 8% which is in line with recent polling.
UKIP are up 15.4% which puts them at about 18% which is again fairly in line.
So actually, other than a slightly low tory score this polling seems to me to be pretty much in line with current polling and does not show the tories doing markedly worse than they are overall, maybe a per cent or two at most. It shows what a mountain they still have to climb to have any chance of remaining the largest party.
I remain of the view that is unlikely and that Labour will be the largest party with any swing back from here only denying them a majority.0 -
No, I am simply pointing out that this is not necessarily a rogue poll wildly out of line with everyone else despite the laughable sample sizes. It is not that different from many of the polls we have seen recently, it has just applied those numbers to certain constituencies.Innocent_Abroad said:
You assume that the campaign itself will have no effect. The 2010 campaign, IIRC, had quite a large one...DavidL said:The Labour vote is up 5.9% in this poll on 2010. Applying that to their national polling gets them up to about 35% which seems in line with most of the polling at the moment.
The tory vote is down 8.7% which puts them at about 28% which seems a touch low.
The Lib Dems are down 15.2% which gets them down to about 8% which is in line with recent polling.
UKIP are up 15.4% which puts them at about 18% which is again fairly in line.
So actually, other than a slightly low tory score this polling seems to me to be pretty much in line with current polling and does not show the tories doing markedly worse than they are overall, maybe a per cent or two at most. It shows what a mountain they still have to climb to have any chance of remaining the largest party.
I remain of the view that is unlikely and that Labour will be the largest party with any swing back from here only denying them a majority.
So far as the campaign is concerned I don't really recall it having a big effect other than for the Lib Dems with the Cleggasm which turned out to be a bit of a damp squib with the vote up only slightly and the seats down.
I do expect the Lib Dem vote to recover somewhat although I am becoming more pessimistic about the extent of that and I expect the Kipper vote to fall a chunk with some benefit to the tories. I just don't see this being enough to stop Labour from being the largest party.
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"Freak pie accident" you say .... Hhmmm .... accident ?!? .... Hhmmmfoxinsoxuk said:This poll is also in line with the local results, so dismissing it out of hand is rather harsh. When it comes down to individual seats it is hard to see Tory gains and not hard to find ones that look like going Labour.
Much as I admire Jacks ARSE, it look as if the only thing likely to prevent Ed being PM is if he was crushed in a freak pie accident perpetrated by Scots nobility.DavidL said:The Labour vote is up 5.9% in this poll on 2010. Applying that to their national polling gets them up to about 35% which seems in line with most of the polling at the moment.
The tory vote is down 8.7% which puts them at about 28% which seems a touch low.
The Lib Dems are down 15.2% which gets them down to about 8% which is in line with recent polling.
UKIP are up 15.4% which puts them at about 18% which is again fairly in line.
So actually, other than a slightly low tory score this polling seems to me to be pretty much in line with current polling and does not show the tories doing markedly worse than they are overall, maybe a per cent or two at most. It shows what a mountain they still have to climb to have any chance of remaining the largest party.
I remain of the view that is unlikely and that Labour will be the largest party with any swing back from here only denying them a majority.
I'll give it some consideration ....
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[DavidL 8.06am] I have no doubt that an election to-morrow would produce the result you describe. I also expect the campaign to benefit the Tories considerably and to do the Lib Dems no harm at least. Labour may very well not poll much more than they did last time and even lose seats such as Grimsby where UKIP attract working-class voters and a long-serving popular MP is standing down. Expect the Tory campaign to focus on Cameron and Ed M and to say little or nothing on policy (voters don't believe policy promises anyway).0
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I think 2014 was the first time UKIP had made any attempt in the local elections here. In years past they have stood candidates in one or two wards, but this year they had almost a full slate (in the Reading Council area).foxinsoxuk said:I see that Shadsy has Labour at 7/2 to take Reading West. The local results may support this poll to suggest some value.
It also seems to be the one of these seats that is least kipper. Is there any reason for this?
Not only is this poll bad for LDs and Tories; it is bad for kippers too. There are no seats for you here in Milliband territory.anotherDave said:May 2014 local election results.
Stevenage: Con 30%, Lab 36%, LD 9%, UKIP 21%, Green 2%
Milton Keynes South: Con 28%, Lab 30%, LD 12%, UKIP 22%, Green 7%
Crawley: Con 36%, Lab 40%, LD 2%, UKIP 19%, Green 1%
Reading West: Con 24%, Lab 46%, LD 12%, UKIP 6%, Green 9%
http://www.fabians.org.uk/election-2014-the-numbers/
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/readingwest/
http://www.reading.gov.uk/elections/election/10/shareOfVote/0 -
Latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections Countdown :
31 minutes 31 seconds0 -
On the impact of the last election campaign: if I'd placed no constituency bets at all during the election period, I would have been better off.0
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Nobody has been able to answer the transport analyst Christian Wolmar's poser: "what is franchising for?"
There is an argument for allowing private companies to run publicly owned rail services in a concession, but franchising is an extremely expensive, convoluted way if running a railway that embeds privatised monopolies. London manages well with regulated, publicly owned transport. Crossrail is a public scheme. Lines that are in the public sector, such as East Coast, have performed well.
High time for a rethink.0 -
PB Tories questioning a poll we don't like....
Patrick Wintour@patrickwintour·5 mins
@patrickwintour fair points - suspicious of commissioned polls show that tell client that their issue will change how people vote.0 -
Just wanted to check the accuracy of Survation. At EP2014 the difference it predicted between 1st and 3rd was 9%. It was 4th least accurate. The difference was actually 3.6% and ICM was closest.0
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BJESUS prediction GE2015 - To be released at 8.50 every Tuesday till 5/5/15
LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 26 (Ed is crap is PM)
BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
Using current polling adjusted for 309 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer0 -
I wonder if I should commission a poll of beds/bucks/herts leafy villages with my pending cricket winnings?
1. IHT - good or bad?
2. Ed Miliband - PM or not so much?
3. Yellow peril - why oh why?
4. Spurs - Champs League or bust?
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Poles four lettering the PM.
Will it produce a 'he might be a twit, but he is OUR twit' bounce?
Go sceptic, go hard, Dave0 -
Are you accepting bets against these predictions? If so what odds that I say Labour gets less than 330 seats?bigjohnowls said:BJESUS prediction GE2015 - To be released at 8.50 every Tuesday till 5/5/15
LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 26 (Ed is crap is PM)
BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
Using current polling adjusted for 309 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer0 -
I think you might be underestimating just how much opprobrium is reserved down here for the privatised train companies, whom commuters think need a grand kicking. One of the less discussed aspects is accountability - or lack of. When something goes wrong, as it regularly does, the various parties blame each other. If a line goes down completely, tickets are only sometimes transferable. The railways have ceased to be a public service - they are instead a fragmented money-making exercises where most of the profits come via compulsory tax payments, and where the travelling public are customers to be screwed rather than passengers to be served.Scrapheap_as_was said:PB Tories questioning a poll we don't like....
Patrick Wintour@patrickwintour·5 mins
@patrickwintour fair points - suspicious of commissioned polls show that tell client that their issue will change how people vote.
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Preempting the ARSE, Dyedwoolies monitor is moving against the Tories
GE2015
Lab 318
Tory 270
Lib Dem 20
Green 2
UKIP 3
Nats and NI 37 (SNP gain 8 seats)
Ed Miliband is Primeminister of a minority government with S and C from Lib Dems, Greens and SDLP0 -
Thanks Dyed. Would be as good as a majority given SF don't take up their seats?dyedwoolie said:Preempting the ARSE, Dyedwoolies monitor is moving against the Tories
GE2015
Lab 318
Tory 270
Lib Dem 20
Green 2
UKIP 3
Nats and NI 37 (SNP gain 8 seats)
Ed Miliband is Primeminister of a minority government with S and C from Lib Dems, Greens and SDLP0 -
Privatisation needn't be an ideology, though it clearly is for some. BT is an example of a 'good' privatisation, the rail network a 'bad' one.BobaFett said:Nobody has been able to answer the transport analyst Christian Wolmar's poser: "what is franchising for?"
There is an argument for allowing private companies to run publicly owned rail services in a concession, but franchising is an extremely expensive, convoluted way if running a railway that embeds privatised monopolies. London manages well with regulated, publicly owned transport. Crossrail is a public scheme. Lines that are in the public sector, such as East Coast, have performed well.
High time for a rethink.0 -
You can still get 10/11 on Labour most seats with Bet365 or the same price on Ed Miliband being Prime Minister at the next Queen's Speech with Ladbrokes.0
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The only bets I have are on Betfair where I have gone with Lab most seats quite a lot staked at 1.95(see this has now shortened to 1.88 and Lab overall maj considerably less at 3.3 in wishful thinking land.0
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Anything over 315 would be an effective majority for Labour as they could rely on SDLP and probably any greens for most issues, but it would be a tough five year haul.BobaFett said:
Thanks Dyed. Would be as good as a majority given SF don't take up their seats?dyedwoolie said:Preempting the ARSE, Dyedwoolies monitor is moving against the Tories
GE2015
Lab 318
Tory 270
Lib Dem 20
Green 2
UKIP 3
Nats and NI 37 (SNP gain 8 seats)
Ed Miliband is Primeminister of a minority government with S and C from Lib Dems, Greens and SDLP
The Tories probably would need a similar level, maybe a couple less as they would almost certainly get support from the DUP as needed0 -
Here comes the arse.....0
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In the fairly unlikely event that a hung Parliament made them relevant, the DUP's votes would be up for sale to the highest bidder. The Tories could expect no particular favours there.0
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BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Change from 10th June Projection) :
Con 312 (-3) .. Lab 274 (+3) .. LibDem 32 (+1) .. SNP 8 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 2 (-1) .. Respect 0 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 14 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - TCTC
Pudsey - TCTC
Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain
Cambridge - Likely LibDem Hold
Ipswich - TCTC
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold
Enfield - TCTC (From Likely Con Hold)
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Likely Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Likely Con Hold
Ochill and South Perthshire - TCTC
Changes From 10th June - Enfield moves from Likely Con Hold to TCTC.
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors0 -
They could. There's a lot of common ground and Cam would pay the required priceantifrank said:In the fairly unlikely event that a hung Parliament made them relevant, the DUP's votes would be up for sale to the highest bidder. The Tories could expect no particular favours there.
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@John_M
Agreed. Telecoms works better in the private sector -
agreed. Telecoms works better in the private sector because there is genuine competition and the privatisation was well thought through. Rail, no. There is no or little competition on most lines and in a couple of cases (EC, Southeastern/Connex?) the government has simply had to take the lines back when a contractor has walked away. The UK isn't a banana republic and therefore the railway cannot be allowed to fail. Franchising is expensive, convoluted and - a generation on - the public still doesn't understand it. The subsidy is larger than it ever was under BR, which was the most efficient railway in Europe when it was privatised.John_M said:
Privatisation needn't be an ideology, though it clearly is for some. BT is an example of a 'good' privatisation, the rail network a 'bad' one.BobaFett said:Nobody has been able to answer the transport analyst Christian Wolmar's poser: "what is franchising for?"
There is an argument for allowing private companies to run publicly owned rail services in a concession, but franchising is an extremely expensive, convoluted way if running a railway that embeds privatised monopolies. London manages well with regulated, publicly owned transport. Crossrail is a public scheme. Lines that are in the public sector, such as East Coast, have performed well.
High time for a rethink.
BR should not be revived however. Instead, let the government bid for franchises as they come up and take them one by one at no cost. That our lines can currently be nationalised to France and Germany but not to the UK (except in extremis a la ECML) is risible.0 -
Far right homophobes who would hold the Tories to ransom over public spending in NI. I'd avoid them like that plague.dyedwoolie said:
Anything over 315 would be an effective majority for Labour as they could rely on SDLP and probably any greens for most issues, but it would be a tough five year haul.BobaFett said:
Thanks Dyed. Would be as good as a majority given SF don't take up their seats?dyedwoolie said:Preempting the ARSE, Dyedwoolies monitor is moving against the Tories
GE2015
Lab 318
Tory 270
Lib Dem 20
Green 2
UKIP 3
Nats and NI 37 (SNP gain 8 seats)
Ed Miliband is Primeminister of a minority government with S and C from Lib Dems, Greens and SDLP
The Tories probably would need a similar level, maybe a couple less as they would almost certainly get support from the DUP as needed0 -
Have to say, rail re nationalisation is the only lefty icky thingy I currently support :-)0
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It's not particular lefty to support it. Even that well known Red Peter Hitchens supports it!dyedwoolie said:Have to say, rail re nationalisation is the only lefty icky thingy I currently support :-)
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He'd take s and c and run on a minority I'd guess, the throw baubles for any vote where they need some help.BobaFett said:
Far right homophobes who would hold the Tories to ransom over public spending in NI. I'd avoid them like that plague.dyedwoolie said:
Anything over 315 would be an effective majority for Labour as they could rely on SDLP and probably any greens for most issues, but it would be a tough five year haul.BobaFett said:
Thanks Dyed. Would be as good as a majority given SF don't take up their seats?dyedwoolie said:Preempting the ARSE, Dyedwoolies monitor is moving against the Tories
GE2015
Lab 318
Tory 270
Lib Dem 20
Green 2
UKIP 3
Nats and NI 37 (SNP gain 8 seats)
Ed Miliband is Primeminister of a minority government with S and C from Lib Dems, Greens and SDLP
The Tories probably would need a similar level, maybe a couple less as they would almost certainly get support from the DUP as needed
I think Tories just short is a very unlikely result though. If there is some sort of swing back if the economy really flies for the next few months or UKIP fizzle, I think it would push them through the glass ceiling on the back of a Lib Dempocalypse.
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Yeah but it's nationalisation, man! I feel like Che GuevaraBobaFett said:
It's not particular lefty to support it. Even that well known Red Peter Hitchens supports it!dyedwoolie said:Have to say, rail re nationalisation is the only lefty icky thingy I currently support :-)
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As antifrank says, they'll sell themselves to the highest bidder. But if the Conservatives end up with 310-15 seats, they'll certainly buy DUP support.BobaFett said:
Far right homophobes who would hold the Tories to ransom over public spending in NI. I'd avoid them like that plague.dyedwoolie said:
Anything over 315 would be an effective majority for Labour as they could rely on SDLP and probably any greens for most issues, but it would be a tough five year haul.BobaFett said:
Thanks Dyed. Would be as good as a majority given SF don't take up their seats?dyedwoolie said:Preempting the ARSE, Dyedwoolies monitor is moving against the Tories
GE2015
Lab 318
Tory 270
Lib Dem 20
Green 2
UKIP 3
Nats and NI 37 (SNP gain 8 seats)
Ed Miliband is Primeminister of a minority government with S and C from Lib Dems, Greens and SDLP
The Tories probably would need a similar level, maybe a couple less as they would almost certainly get support from the DUP as needed0 -
I think you might have some way to go ;-)dyedwoolie said:
Yeah but it's nationalisation, man! I feel like Che GuevaraBobaFett said:
It's not particular lefty to support it. Even that well known Red Peter Hitchens supports it!dyedwoolie said:Have to say, rail re nationalisation is the only lefty icky thingy I currently support :-)
What I cannot grasp is why thr government is inviting ire by attempting to re-privatise ECML in the late winter, just before the election. This is a gift to Labour. The service has been run very well in government hands and the move will be deeply unpopular and force the debate on to Labour's home turf.
If the government really believes in franchising, why is it keeping the biggest railway build in Europe - Crossrail - in the public sector? Answer, because it knows, in its heart, that the railway, like the military, is best in the public sector. Because it's in London it's too dear to them to mess with and risk private sector cock ups.
Telling.
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UKIP are currently averaging 15%, and the Conservatives 32%. The Conservatives can probably hold onto largest party status if they can get UKIP down to 10%.redcliffe62 said:This is exactly what is happening.
To avoid a wipe out Tories have to do a deal with UKIP in some form or another. Anything over 5% UKIP is an election loss and 19% for UKIP is a 300 seat battering for the Tories.
Watch that referendum promise be fast tracked before May just as soon as Scots indy is out of the way....0 -
Commuters don't care if the trains are private or public as long as the service is good.
Same as the NHS and schools.
0 -
It is hard to think of a time when Rail has worked well in this country post 1960s.dyedwoolie said:
Yeah but it's nationalisation, man! I feel like Che GuevaraBobaFett said:
It's not particular lefty to support it. Even that well known Red Peter Hitchens supports it!dyedwoolie said:Have to say, rail re nationalisation is the only lefty icky thingy I currently support :-)
Under nationalisation there were some truly terrible decisions on track, rolling stock, fares, freight, catering and industrial relations. There was very little to applaud in the BR days.
Many of those faults are still with us. The level of fares is obscene, and that is the major gripe of the commuter belt. You don't feel as if you have value for money when you shell out 5 grand a year for standing room in a hot sweaty carriage.
However, the franchise / public ownership debate is a sideline to that issue. It is a capacity problem that is not altered by ownership structure.
There may well be a better structure than the franchise system we use, but I am not convinced it is nationalisation.
The other question you would have to ask as a government is: 'Do I want to be responsible in the eyes of the electorate for the failings of the rail system (which are greater than ownership structure)?' Will running the rail system be a vote winner or looser?0 -
There is no way that LDs will do a S&C deal with LAB particularly if they have most seats on fewer votes.BobaFett said:
Thanks Dyed. Would be as good as a majority given SF don't take up their seats?dyedwoolie said:Preempting the ARSE, Dyedwoolies monitor is moving against the Tories
GE2015
Lab 318
Tory 270
Lib Dem 20
Green 2
UKIP 3
Nats and NI 37 (SNP gain 8 seats)
Ed Miliband is Primeminister of a minority government with S and C from Lib Dems, Greens and SDLP
0 -
It depends what you mean by large. People tend to overestimate the impact of campaigns, probably because the compulsory neutral TV coverage tends to balance things out with a boost to the third party as they get more coverage than usual and a weakening of the Conservative bonus given by extra funding (because of spending limits). There's a pretty definitive overview here:Innocent_Abroad said:
You assume that the campaign itself will have no effect. The 2010 campaign, IIRC, had quite a large one...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2010
Broadly, the LibDems took about 5 points from the Tories and 2 from Labour. So the net Con-Lab effect was a swing of 1.5 points. It's possible that the campaign will have some astonishing effects, but generally - speaking with 2010 memories in mind - the statement that things will all come right in the campaign is last straw-clutching and it doesn't usually work out. We are running out of black swans.
Bear in mind that the Conservatives have already played their supposed trumps - "The economy is doing really well" and "Don't let Ed be PM". People say "mmm, maybe" to both but it's not producing a Tory lead, let alone exceeding the 7% lead needed to get them back to their 2010 level and start winning Labour seats. Is there *anyone* here who actually thinks they'll get a bigger lead than 7?
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FPT
The Cameroon strategy seems to be perform some stupid pantomime over nonsense like Jankers in the hope it will con Ukip voters into believing the Cameroons aren't 100% Europhile.TGOHF said:
What if Cam gets so hacked off he chucks in the towel and says he's backing "OUT"
Do you still vote Kipper to end up with Miliband and no referendum ?
The Cameroons better hope Ukip voters are as thick as they think they are.
0 -
http://labourlist.org/2014/06/the-labour-leader-miliband-most-resembles-clem-attlee/
How many PBers can remember Attlee?0 -
Quite and not only with Labour. Why would the LibDems tie themselves to S&C to any party and the negativity that comes with propping up a government but without any of the benefits of office and policy enactment ?MikeSmithson said:
There is no way that LDs will do a S&C deal with LAB particularly if they have most seats on fewer votes.BobaFett said:
Thanks Dyed. Would be as good as a majority given SF don't take up their seats?dyedwoolie said:Preempting the ARSE, Dyedwoolies monitor is moving against the Tories
GE2015
Lab 318
Tory 270
Lib Dem 20
Green 2
UKIP 3
Nats and NI 37 (SNP gain 8 seats)
Ed Miliband is Primeminister of a minority government with S and C from Lib Dems, Greens and SDLP
0 -
If we were seeing a Tory lead at this stage of the Parliament, we could expect to see a comfortable Conservative majority at the next election.NickPalmer said:
It depends what you mean by large. People tend to overestimate the impact of campaigns, probably because the compulsory neutral TV coverage tends to balance things out with a boost to the third party as they get more coverage than usual and a weakening of the Conservative bonus given by extra funding (because of spending limits). There's a pretty definitive overview here:Innocent_Abroad said:
You assume that the campaign itself will have no effect. The 2010 campaign, IIRC, had quite a large one...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2010
Broadly, the LibDems took about 5 points from the Tories and 2 from Labour. So the net Con-Lab effect was a swing of 1.5 points. It's possible that the campaign will have some astonishing effects, but generally - speaking with 2010 memories in mind - the statement that things will all come right in the campaign is last straw-clutching and it doesn't usually work out. We are running out of black swans.
Bear in mind that the Conservatives have already played their supposed trumps - "The economy is doing really well" and "Don't let Ed be PM". People say "mmm, maybe" to both but it's not producing a Tory lead, let alone exceeding the 7% lead needed to get them back to their 2010 level and start winning Labour seats. Is there *anyone* here who actually thinks they'll get a bigger lead than 7?
0 -
UKIP would do very, very well if they announced railway renationalisation as a key policy for 2015. It would leave the Tories isolated as the only party willing to maintain the status quo which socialises losses and investment and privatises profit (or in some cases, socialises them, just for other nations/governments).0
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I'd expect Pudsey to go to Labour - how come you have it TCTC ?JackW said:BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Change from 10th June Projection) :
Con 312 (-3) .. Lab 274 (+3) .. LibDem 32 (+1) .. SNP 8 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 2 (-1) .. Respect 0 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 14 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - TCTC
Pudsey - TCTC
Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain
Cambridge - Likely LibDem Hold
Ipswich - TCTC
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold
Enfield - TCTC (From Likely Con Hold)
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Likely Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Likely Con Hold
Ochill and South Perthshire - TCTC
Changes From 10th June - Enfield moves from Likely Con Hold to TCTC.
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors0 -
I guess if you are in the select bubble that studied politics at Uni you might know what he is banging on about.Financier said:http://labourlist.org/2014/06/the-labour-leader-miliband-most-resembles-clem-attlee/
How many PBers can remember Attlee?
Funnier though is the messenger now being shot
"I would put the people who are fuelling the air of crisis into three categories:
1) Commentators like Dan Hodges who have bet their reputation on Ed being a loser so they have a vested interest in helping fulfil their prediction by putting the boot into him.
2) Plotters. A minority of the people who didn’t vote for Ed to be leader want the party’s decision revisited. Being charitable, they may have a different political vision and/or think another leader is more voter-friendly. Being uncharitable they may feel their careers will advance faster in an opposition led by someone else (maybe themselves?) than in a government led by Ed.
3) Well-intentioned worriers. This third category definitely has the party’s best interests at heart but needs to realise that there are positive ways to suggest how we and Ed can up our game, and then there are headless chicken reactions that just make things worse."0 -
Messenger not happy about being shot
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges · 24m
Mark my words. Those people being most vocal in their defence of Ed M now will be the most brutal in their condemnation when he loses.0 -
not sure on the relevance as no idea on the scale but there's not just been "white flight" from the cities but also private sector middle class from ethnic minorities (who I think are still disproportionately Lab?) the commuting connection made me wonder.
0 -
Gaby Hinsliff @gabyhinsliff 15sTGOHF said:Messenger not happy about being shot
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges · 24m
Mark my words. Those people being most vocal in their defence of Ed M now will be the most brutal in their condemnation when he loses.
For anyone who covered the Tories under Hague, the current 'What Do We Do About Ed Miliband' story doesn't half feel like deja vu.0 -
On topic, survation themselves say the MoE on these polls is 6.2%, the finding on rail nationalisation isn't surprising, but in line with t'other polls.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3xogmu28sf/YouGov_Times_140304.pdf0 -
Paradoxically, Labour could do as badly as the Conservatives did in 2001, and still win the election (I don't think it's likely, but it is possible).TheScreamingEagles said:
Gaby Hinsliff @gabyhinsliff 15sTGOHF said:Messenger not happy about being shot
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges · 24m
Mark my words. Those people being most vocal in their defence of Ed M now will be the most brutal in their condemnation when he loses.
For anyone who covered the Tories under Hague, the current 'What Do We Do About Ed Miliband' story doesn't half feel like deja vu.
0 -
On topic part II.
If these polls are correct, then it means the Lib Dems are doing really badly where it doesn't matter, and we can infer they are doing better where it counts.
Two betting implications.
The Lib Dems are going to lose 150+ deposits at the GE, coupled with the Lord A poll last week, and this, the Lib Dems 31-40 band does look the one to go on.0 -
He's something of a Labour movement icon - a bit like Thatcher for many Tories - as he's seen as having effected a lasting change in society (the NHS) as well as managing an obviously difficult situation with calm and dignity. That said, he did lose the third time round, so Miliband might need to worry about the 2025 election. :-)Financier said:http://labourlist.org/2014/06/the-labour-leader-miliband-most-resembles-clem-attlee/
How many PBers can remember Attlee?
In reality he was vehemently opposed by the left at the time, notably by the Tony Benn of his day, Harold Laski, but these things blur in the rosy mists of hindsight.
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If it wasn't cheaper than driving, they wouldn't use the train.philiph said:
The level of fares is obscene, and that is the major gripe of the commuter belt. You don't feel as if you have value for money when you shell out 5 grand a year for standing room in a hot sweaty carriage.dyedwoolie said:
Yeah but it's nationalisation, man! I feel like Che GuevaraBobaFett said:
It's not particular lefty to support it. Even that well known Red Peter Hitchens supports it!dyedwoolie said:Have to say, rail re nationalisation is the only lefty icky thingy I currently support :-)
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Under public ownership the trains would be free - and there would be a moon on a stick for every passenger !anotherDave said:
If it wasn't cheaper than driving, they wouldn't use the train.philiph said:
The level of fares is obscene, and that is the major gripe of the commuter belt. You don't feel as if you have value for money when you shell out 5 grand a year for standing room in a hot sweaty carriage.dyedwoolie said:
Yeah but it's nationalisation, man! I feel like Che GuevaraBobaFett said:
It's not particular lefty to support it. Even that well known Red Peter Hitchens supports it!dyedwoolie said:Have to say, rail re nationalisation is the only lefty icky thingy I currently support :-)
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By win do you mean majority or most seats ?Sean_F said:
Paradoxically, Labour could do as badly as the Conservatives did in 2001, and still win the election (I don't think it's likely, but it is possible).TheScreamingEagles said:
Gaby Hinsliff @gabyhinsliff 15sTGOHF said:Messenger not happy about being shot
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges · 24m
Mark my words. Those people being most vocal in their defence of Ed M now will be the most brutal in their condemnation when he loses.
For anyone who covered the Tories under Hague, the current 'What Do We Do About Ed Miliband' story doesn't half feel like deja vu.
Often see posters referring to "winning and "losing" and never quite sure if they are referring to most seats or majority.
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Good Morning, I can remember Old Clement very well. Not a real leader but as chairman of the board, not bad. But the Labour government of 1945 - 50 was one that held Britain back from growth and advance for those dismal 5 years. And Clement is nothing like ED.Financier said:http://labourlist.org/2014/06/the-labour-leader-miliband-most-resembles-clem-attlee/
How many PBers can remember Attlee?0 -
My advice is:
Do whatever it takes to bring back old conservatism. We would all benefit. Even we lefties.0 -
Attlee won the 1950 GE by 5 seats and lost the 1951 GE to Churchill. So EdM had better beware 2016!NickPalmer said:
He's something of a Labour movement icon - a bit like Thatcher for many Tories - as he's seen as having effected a lasting change in society (the NHS) as well as managing an obviously difficult situation with calm and dignity. That said, he did lose the third time round, so Miliband might need to worry about the 2025 election. :-)Financier said:http://labourlist.org/2014/06/the-labour-leader-miliband-most-resembles-clem-attlee/
How many PBers can remember Attlee?
In reality he was vehemently opposed by the left at the time, notably by the Tony Benn of his day, Harold Laski, but these things blur in the rosy mists of hindsight.0 -
Just put £15 on Labour Reading West @ 11-4 - Had a look back at previous elections and it does seem to be very swingy. In fact in 2001 you could regard it as a safe seat for Labour !anotherDave said:May 2014 local election results.
Stevenage: Con 30%, Lab 36%, LD 9%, UKIP 21%, Green 2%
Milton Keynes South: Con 28%, Lab 30%, LD 12%, UKIP 22%, Green 7%
Crawley: Con 36%, Lab 40%, LD 2%, UKIP 19%, Green 1%
Reading West: Con 24%, Lab 46%, LD 12%, UKIP 6%, Green 9%
http://www.fabians.org.uk/election-2014-the-numbers/
Those local election results do seem to be very good for Labour too there.0 -
I see Red say's he's going to "go on and on and on..."
As LOTO, LOL!
Dan Hodge's stuff of nightmares.0 -
Both.Pulpstar said:
By win do you mean majority or most seats ?Sean_F said:
Paradoxically, Labour could do as badly as the Conservatives did in 2001, and still win the election (I don't think it's likely, but it is possible).TheScreamingEagles said:
Gaby Hinsliff @gabyhinsliff 15sTGOHF said:Messenger not happy about being shot
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges · 24m
Mark my words. Those people being most vocal in their defence of Ed M now will be the most brutal in their condemnation when he loses.
For anyone who covered the Tories under Hague, the current 'What Do We Do About Ed Miliband' story doesn't half feel like deja vu.
Often see posters referring to "winning and "losing" and never quite sure if they are referring to most seats or majority.
0 -
Rail privatisation has been an unmitigated success. Renationalisation would be a disaster.
I would withdraw my support from any party committed to renationalising the railways.0 -
England last year, went into the last day of a test match/series, at 90/4 chasing a mahoosive target, but they avoided defeat.
We can do it again.
http://www.espncricinfo.com/new-zealand-v-england-2013/engine/match/569245.html0 -
FPT
Classic Unionist argument, in that it completely forgets to say what happens if we vote no. Which is, we don't get a HS2 line over the border anyway for 1-2 generations, so no difference there, and we end up paying for the London-Brum line. And, with the cuts and waste, a lot less of decent railway within Scotland itself.SeanT said:
Why the F should English taxpayers fork out for an entirely unjustified high speed railway between England and a barely populated, mainly frozen, midge infested, impossibly remote, hideously declining, blatantly hostile, repulsively socialist foreign country - i.e. independent Scotland?Carnyx said:
You aren't listening. Dependence, we pay 1.4 billion to help London get to Brum quicker. Independence, we don't. That is absolutely independent (to coin a phrase) of what we do in Scotland.Scott_P said:
Right, but they are going to build it at zero cost?Carnyx said:
Actually, they're quite interested in HSR between Edinburgh and Glasgow and working outwards from there.
No, so your "savings' on high speed rail are mythical, like all the SNP fiscal plans.
What's in it for us? Nothing. That's what. As long as you are part of Britain, you get the benefits of generous, sunbathed southerners in a good mood. If you leave, you become the Faroe Islands with a bit of coal in the scuttle and a history of spitting in our faces.
I doubt Anglo-Scottish transport connections will IMPROVE in that context, unless you pay for everything and give us droit du seigneur. Again.
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Classic whiner argument forgetting all the investment made in Scotland - what do us Englanders get for that apart from to and from our shooting estates quicker.Carnyx said:FPT
Classic Unionist argument, in that it completely forgets to say what happens if we vote no. Which is, we don't get a HS2 line over the border anyway for 1-2 generations, so no difference there, and we end up paying for the London-Brum line. And, with the cuts and waste, a lot less of decent railway within Scotland itself.SeanT said:
Why the F should English taxpayers fork out for an entirely unjustified high speed railway between England and a barely populated, mainly frozen, midge infested, impossibly remote, hideously declining, blatantly hostile, repulsively socialist foreign country - i.e. independent Scotland?Carnyx said:
You aren't listening. Dependence, we pay 1.4 billion to help London get to Brum quicker. Independence, we don't. That is absolutely independent (to coin a phrase) of what we do in Scotland.Scott_P said:
Right, but they are going to build it at zero cost?Carnyx said:
Actually, they're quite interested in HSR between Edinburgh and Glasgow and working outwards from there.
No, so your "savings' on high speed rail are mythical, like all the SNP fiscal plans.
What's in it for us? Nothing. That's what. As long as you are part of Britain, you get the benefits of generous, sunbathed southerners in a good mood. If you leave, you become the Faroe Islands with a bit of coal in the scuttle and a history of spitting in our faces.
I doubt Anglo-Scottish transport connections will IMPROVE in that context, unless you pay for everything and give us droit du seigneur. Again.
You've lost the ref - move on.0 -
I've never understood what was supposed to be so great about British Rail.
When I was a kid my mum and I used to commute on the train a lot in the 1980's because I had lots of hospital appointments and my mum didn't drive a car.
Anyway, the service was terrible. Trains were always running late or being cancelled. The amount of times we was late for or missed doctors appointments was crazy...
The trains were clapped out. Dirty, smelly, ripped seats, etc...
Compared to then, the rail service is much, much better now in my opinion.0 -
Edit: I note Labour also won the trickier seat of Reading East at the locals - available @ 6-1 with Ladbrokes. I suspect come GE day it could well be a good value loser for Ed Miliband but it adds weight to Reading West going red.0
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Now I've got the "green" on the test hopefully we can avoid defeat.TheScreamingEagles said:England last year, went into the last day of a test match/series, at 90/4 chasing a mahoosive target, but they avoided defeat.
We can do it again.
http://www.espncricinfo.com/new-zealand-v-england-2013/engine/match/569245.html
It would be a heroic effort to save the test from here.0 -
Chuka on Sky talking about the living wage
Load of nonsense, cant be imposed, wont work0 -
Very interesting post, Mike.MikeSmithson said:There is no way that LDs will do a S&C deal with LAB particularly if they have most seats on fewer votes.
As I've said in the past, there is a significant risk that the next GE may end up with a result where no stable government can be formed. The financial markets haven't yet woken up to this risk - in the past few months there have an increasing number of articles and analysts' research notes pointing to the political danger of GE2015, but almost always only in the context of how much of a danger Ed Miliband poses to our prosperity, not the danger of no effective government at all.0 -
Green on Lanka, zeros up Eng/draw.Pulpstar said:
Now I've got the "green" on the test hopefully we can avoid defeat.TheScreamingEagles said:England last year, went into the last day of a test match/series, at 90/4 chasing a mahoosive target, but they avoided defeat.
We can do it again.
http://www.espncricinfo.com/new-zealand-v-england-2013/engine/match/569245.html
It would be a heroic effort to save the test from here.
Also had a tickle on Jordon top scorer at 10/10 -
The makeup of the next Gov't could be heavily affected by whether there is a Yes or No vote in Scotland next year.Richard_Nabavi said:
Very interesting post, Mike.MikeSmithson said:There is no way that LDs will do a S&C deal with LAB particularly if they have most seats on fewer votes.
As I've said in the past, there is a significant risk that the next GE may end up with a result where no stable government can be formed. The financial markets haven't yet woken up to this risk - in the past few months there have an increasing number of articles and analysts' research notes pointing to the political danger of GE2015, but almost always only in the context of how much of a danger Ed Miliband poses to our prosperity, not the danger of no effective government at all.
A "No" vote makes a stable Gov't more likely than with a "Yes" vote in my book tbh. Also Sinn Fein doing well in NI actually makes forming a stable Gov't slightly easier! (Betting, De Jure Minority; De Facto majority)0 -
Could Sinn Fein improve on their 5 seats ? Is this likely ?0
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Quite a few people are, actually:BobaFett said:@Gin
Nobody is suggesting bringing back BR.
http://www.bringbackbritishrail.org/
http://www.theweek.co.uk/politics/2989/bring-back-british-rail-surefire-vote-winner
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPHAaPO0ViU
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/1411487/Bring-back-BR-say-nostalgic-Britons.html0
